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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Those whom the Gods wish to destroy. What happens next now that Britain has gone mad
At Deltapoll, we asked Leave voters in Britain to choose between leaving the #EU and peace in #NorthernIreland. Nearly 6 out of 10 said the UK leaving the EU was more important. #Brexit pic.twitter.com/0FqMJAJZgN
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Probably not first (but you never know!)0
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Possibly not even second.0
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I have the greatest of respect for Alastair, but he's got this one wrong. Respondents to this poll were far from bonkers. The poll, once you look through its false dichotomy, is essentially asking voters whether a small bunch of violent criminals (or, in the alternative poll he quotes, a small region of the UK) should have a veto on a democratic decision taken by the population of the UK as a whole. Whether you voted Leave or Remain, of course the answer is clear: No. Who can disagree with that?0
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It would be possible to say without exaggeration that the Brexit leaders were the stupidest men in England if we had not frequent occasion to meet the Remainers.0
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Now we know Brexiteers are mad?
NOW we know?0 -
Except it patently didn't ask "whether a small bunch of violent criminals... should have a veto on a democratic decision taken by the population of the UK as a whole"; it asked whether you'd rather leave the EU than have peace in Northern Ireland.Richard_Nabavi said:I have the greatest of respect for Alastair, but he's got this one wrong. Respondents to this poll were far from bonkers. The poll, once you look through its false dichotomy, is essentially asking voters whether a small bunch of violent criminals (or, in the alternative poll he quotes, a small region of the UK) should have a veto on a democratic decision taken by the population of the UK as a whole. Whether you voted Leave or Remain, of course the answer is clear: No. Who can disagree with that?
No amount of dressing it up can change the fact that, in this poll, a majority of leavers profess they would be ready to sacrifice peace in NI.0 -
A fairer question would be whether the creation of a hard border in Ireland, and the attendant risk of civil war, is a price worth paying for Brexit.Richard_Nabavi said:I have the greatest of respect for Alastair, but he's got this one wrong. Respondents to this poll were far from bonkers. The poll, once you look through its false dichotomy, is essentially asking voters whether a small bunch of violent criminals (or, in the alternative poll he quotes, a small region of the UK) should have a veto on a democratic decision taken by the population of the UK as a whole. Whether you voted Leave or Remain, of course the answer is clear: No. Who can disagree with that?
Sadly, people are ignorant about Irish politics. They have either forgotten the troubles, or they don't understand the history.0 -
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If we add the third of Leavers who think sacrificing peace in Northern Ireland isn't a price worth paying to the Remainers, the democratic decision would be to Remain.Richard_Nabavi said:I have the greatest of respect for Alastair, but he's got this one wrong. Respondents to this poll were far from bonkers. The poll, once you look through its false dichotomy, is essentially asking voters whether a small bunch of violent criminals (or, in the alternative poll he quotes, a small region of the UK) should have a veto on a democratic decision taken by the population of the UK as a whole. Whether you voted Leave or Remain, of course the answer is clear: No. Who can disagree with that?
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Well put Richard. Agree entirely.Richard_Nabavi said:I have the greatest of respect for Alastair, but he's got this one wrong. Respondents to this poll were far from bonkers. The poll, once you look through its false dichotomy, is essentially asking voters whether a small bunch of violent criminals (or, in the alternative poll he quotes, a small region of the UK) should have a veto on a democratic decision taken by the population of the UK as a whole. Whether you voted Leave or Remain, of course the answer is clear: No. Who can disagree with that?
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I think one of May's unforced errors has been to significantly overestimate the intelligence of quite a few people, from Davis, Fox, Boris and JRM to Leo Varadkar, Juncker, Corbyn and Oliver Robbins.
In fact, she overestimates so many people, so often, it looks like a serious character flaw.0 -
Except Brexit will make zero difference to either Scottish independence (as proved by the fact the SNP lost over a third of their seats after the Brexit vote and won just 37% at the 2017 general election despite winning 50% at the 2015 general election before the Brexit vote) and zero difference to peace in Northern Ireland given Sinn Fein broke the powersharing agreement at Stormont which had nothing to do with Brexit and Protestants in Northern Ireland voted to Leave the EU and Catholics voted to Remain in the EU.
The divisions in Scotland are primarily Unionist v Nationalist, the divisions in Northern Ireland Protestant Unionist v Catholic Nationalist, Brexit has made no difference to that at all. Devomax is more important to most Scots than reversing the Brexit vote and any move for NI to join the Republic will come if it gains a Catholic majority, again not because of Brexit and even then the majority Protestant counties will insist on staying in the UK0 -
I doubt if ten million or so people are actually mad, as opposed to expressing views that the author doesn't like.
These questions are along the lines of "when did you last stop beating your wife?" The best response is not to respond.0 -
This one just runs and runs doesn't it.Scott_P said:
Labour must be extremely relieved that no one outside us junkies is paying any attention as it is hot and summer holidays.0 -
Most polls also show support for the Chequers Deal and Hard Brexit combined outweighs support for Remain, not forgetting most polls overestimated Remain before the EU referendum anyway0
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It's an interesting point about the Troubles being forgotten - the over 50s (who tend to be most heavily Leave) are the very ones who should remember how shitty those times were... not just in Northern Ireland.nielh said:
A fairer question would be whether the creation of a hard border in Ireland, and the attendant risk of civil war, is a price worth paying for Brexit.Richard_Nabavi said:I have the greatest of respect for Alastair, but he's got this one wrong. Respondents to this poll were far from bonkers. The poll, once you look through its false dichotomy, is essentially asking voters whether a small bunch of violent criminals (or, in the alternative poll he quotes, a small region of the UK) should have a veto on a democratic decision taken by the population of the UK as a whole. Whether you voted Leave or Remain, of course the answer is clear: No. Who can disagree with that?
Sadly, people are ignorant about Irish politics. They have either forgotten the troubles, or they don't understand the history.0 -
I don't wish to defend Corbyn or his lackeys, but...
Well, it *is* okay to accuse Israel of attempted genocide isn't it? Countries get accused of attempted or successful genocide all the time.0 -
Anyone who understands the situation in Northern Ireland.Richard_Nabavi said:I have the greatest of respect for Alastair, but he's got this one wrong. Respondents to this poll were far from bonkers. The poll, once you look through its false dichotomy, is essentially asking voters whether a small bunch of violent criminals (or, in the alternative poll he quotes, a small region of the UK) should have a veto on a democratic decision taken by the population of the UK as a whole. Whether you voted Leave or Remain, of course the answer is clear: No. Who can disagree with that?
Or understands the centuries of history of Irish nationalism. I'm sure we don't have to explain the significance of Padraig Pearse's GPO declaration to you now, do we Richard?0 -
This all goes back to central problem associated with Brexit. Why did the government give people the option of voting for something that would cause total chaos?
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You keep posting this but it is simply not true. One single poll showed combined support neck and neck with Remain.HYUFD said:Most polls also show support for the Chequers Deal and Hard Brexit combined outweighs support for Remain,
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Indeed.nielh said:
A fairer question would be whether the creation of a hard border in Ireland, and the attendant risk of civil war, is a price worth paying for Brexit.Richard_Nabavi said:I have the greatest of respect for Alastair, but he's got this one wrong. Respondents to this poll were far from bonkers. The poll, once you look through its false dichotomy, is essentially asking voters whether a small bunch of violent criminals (or, in the alternative poll he quotes, a small region of the UK) should have a veto on a democratic decision taken by the population of the UK as a whole. Whether you voted Leave or Remain, of course the answer is clear: No. Who can disagree with that?
Sadly, people are ignorant about Irish politics. They have either forgotten the troubles, or they don't understand the history.0 -
I'm struck by the number of people claiming that Ireland joining the Euro was somehow equivalent to Brexit, as if they think it was using the same currency as the UK before then. Ignorance and arrogance abounds.Benpointer said:
It's an interesting point about the Troubles being forgotten - the over 50s (who tend to be most heavily Leave) are the very ones who should remember how shitty those times were... not just in Northern Ireland.nielh said:
A fairer question would be whether the creation of a hard border in Ireland, and the attendant risk of civil war, is a price worth paying for Brexit.Richard_Nabavi said:I have the greatest of respect for Alastair, but he's got this one wrong. Respondents to this poll were far from bonkers. The poll, once you look through its false dichotomy, is essentially asking voters whether a small bunch of violent criminals (or, in the alternative poll he quotes, a small region of the UK) should have a veto on a democratic decision taken by the population of the UK as a whole. Whether you voted Leave or Remain, of course the answer is clear: No. Who can disagree with that?
Sadly, people are ignorant about Irish politics. They have either forgotten the troubles, or they don't understand the history.0 -
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Ugh. An expert.grabcocque said:0 -
Are you sure you're not overestimating May?grabcocque said:I think one of May's unforced errors has been to significantly overestimate the intelligence of quite a few people, from Davis, Fox, Boris and JRM to Leo Varadkar, Juncker, Corbyn and Oliver Robbins.
In fact, she overestimates so many people, so often, it looks like a serious character flaw.0 -
I voted Remain, but I don't think criminals in Ireland should decide whether Brexit goes ahead. So, faced with this false dichotomy, what would I be supposed to answer? Saying 'Don't know' seems a bit feeble, so as far as I can see the nearest response which is correct is the one Alastair says is bonkers. Well, maybe, but it seems more bonkers to take the other side of the question.Benpointer said:
Except it patently didn't ask "whether a small bunch of violent criminals... should have a veto on a democratic decision taken by the population of the UK as a whole"; it asked whether you'd rather leave the EU than have peace in Northern Ireland.Richard_Nabavi said:I have the greatest of respect for Alastair, but he's got this one wrong. Respondents to this poll were far from bonkers. The poll, once you look through its false dichotomy, is essentially asking voters whether a small bunch of violent criminals (or, in the alternative poll he quotes, a small region of the UK) should have a veto on a democratic decision taken by the population of the UK as a whole. Whether you voted Leave or Remain, of course the answer is clear: No. Who can disagree with that?
No amount of dressing it up can change the fact that, in this poll, a majority of leavers profess they would be ready to sacrifice peace in NI.0 -
I expect most of us don't prioritise the wishes of Irish Republicans when we cast our votes.Benpointer said:
It's an interesting point about the Troubles being forgotten - the over 50s (who tend to be most heavily Leave) are the very ones who should remember how shitty those times were... not just in Northern Ireland.nielh said:
A fairer question would be whether the creation of a hard border in Ireland, and the attendant risk of civil war, is a price worth paying for Brexit.Richard_Nabavi said:I have the greatest of respect for Alastair, but he's got this one wrong. Respondents to this poll were far from bonkers. The poll, once you look through its false dichotomy, is essentially asking voters whether a small bunch of violent criminals (or, in the alternative poll he quotes, a small region of the UK) should have a veto on a democratic decision taken by the population of the UK as a whole. Whether you voted Leave or Remain, of course the answer is clear: No. Who can disagree with that?
Sadly, people are ignorant about Irish politics. They have either forgotten the troubles, or they don't understand the history.
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The pain of the cretin writing this piece is brings me far more joy than it probably should.
Superb!0 -
Jim Sciutto - Verified account @jimsciutto
To be clear on today's Trump admin sanctions on #Russia for #Skripal poisoning:
- They are mandated under the 1991 Chemical & Biological Weapons Control & Warfare Elimination Act for chemical weapons use.
- WH blew past the law's 60-day deadline by a month.
The law mandates a second, more Draconian round of sanctions unless:
-Russia assures the US it is no longer using chemical or biological weapons
-Russia allows onsite inspectors to ensure the government is not using chem/bio weapons
That second round could include:
- Ending flights to US by Russian national carrier Aeroflot
- Banning all/most Russian imports/exports with US
- cutting off diplomatic relations
Russia now has 90 days to comply.
**90 days from today is Election Day**0 -
Precisely!Richard_Nabavi said:I have the greatest of respect for Alastair, but he's got this one wrong. Respondents to this poll were far from bonkers. The poll, once you look through its false dichotomy, is essentially asking voters whether a small bunch of violent criminals (or, in the alternative poll he quotes, a small region of the UK) should have a veto on a democratic decision taken by the population of the UK as a whole. Whether you voted Leave or Remain, of course the answer is clear: No. Who can disagree with that?
My grandparents generation lived through a war where people weren't just prepared to have a small conflict in a small part of the country to secure our rights. They were prepared to sacrifice their lives and peace across the globe to fight for our rights. We forget that at our peril.
Democracy is more important than Brexit. It is more important than peace.
Put it another way had we voted narrowly to remain and then UKIP turned into a terrorist organisation and started a bombing campaign to get us to leave ... would you have considered remaining as we had voted to do more important or less important than avoiding a conflict? Would you be prepared to give a hypothetical terrorist Farage by bombs and bullets what he failed to get at the ballot box?0 -
You don't think this is total chaos?Sean_F said:
Because they don't expect it to cause total chaos?nielh said:This all goes back to central problem associated with Brexit. Why did the government give people the option of voting for something that would cause total chaos?
We were told by the stronger In campaign to vote remain to avoid chaos.0 -
Parity, here we come. Perhaps we should joinScott_P said:
??? 0 -
Clowns to the left of me, jokers to the right.
Actually, it's more like Anti Semites to the left, Islamophobes to the right. Or is it xenophobic, racist little Englanders to the right, socialist, jew baiting cultists to the left, pious, smug liberal tossers in the middle?
So difficult to know what insults to throw at people now, there are so many worthy of insulting.0 -
Do you think Irish nationalists are all criminals?Richard_Nabavi said:
I voted Remain, but I don't think criminals in Ireland should decide whether Brexit goes ahead. So, faced with this false dichotomy, what would I be supposed to answer? Saying 'Don't know' seems a bit feeble, so as far as I can see the nearest response which is correct is the one Alastair says is bonkers. Well, maybe, but it seems more bonkers to take the other side of the question.Benpointer said:
Except it patently didn't ask "whether a small bunch of violent criminals... should have a veto on a democratic decision taken by the population of the UK as a whole"; it asked whether you'd rather leave the EU than have peace in Northern Ireland.Richard_Nabavi said:I have the greatest of respect for Alastair, but he's got this one wrong. Respondents to this poll were far from bonkers. The poll, once you look through its false dichotomy, is essentially asking voters whether a small bunch of violent criminals (or, in the alternative poll he quotes, a small region of the UK) should have a veto on a democratic decision taken by the population of the UK as a whole. Whether you voted Leave or Remain, of course the answer is clear: No. Who can disagree with that?
No amount of dressing it up can change the fact that, in this poll, a majority of leavers profess they would be ready to sacrifice peace in NI.
I mean there was an ok PB thread header on this a short while ago.
*blushes*0 -
That's a variant of the same false dichotomy. (Thanks BTW for your piece of a couple of days ago, which was very good, but which glossed over the point that a hard border isn't the inevitable result of us leaving the Single Market and/or Customs Union).TOPPING said:
Anyone who understands the situation in Northern Ireland.Richard_Nabavi said:I have the greatest of respect for Alastair, but he's got this one wrong. Respondents to this poll were far from bonkers. The poll, once you look through its false dichotomy, is essentially asking voters whether a small bunch of violent criminals (or, in the alternative poll he quotes, a small region of the UK) should have a veto on a democratic decision taken by the population of the UK as a whole. Whether you voted Leave or Remain, of course the answer is clear: No. Who can disagree with that?
Or understands the centuries of history of Irish nationalism. I'm sure we don't have to explain the significance of Padraig Pearse's GPO declaration to you now, do we Richard?0 -
Tbh my heart isn't in the argument against you... the poll was a pretty stupid one.Richard_Nabavi said:
I voted Remain, but I don't think criminals in Ireland should decide whether Brexit goes ahead. So, faced with this false dichotomy, what would I be supposed to answer? Saying 'Don't know' seems a bit feeble, so as far as I can see the nearest response which is correct is the one Alastair says is bonkers. Well, maybe, but it seems more bonkers to take the other side of the question.Benpointer said:
Except it patently didn't ask "whether a small bunch of violent criminals... should have a veto on a democratic decision taken by the population of the UK as a whole"; it asked whether you'd rather leave the EU than have peace in Northern Ireland.Richard_Nabavi said:I have the greatest of respect for Alastair, but he's got this one wrong. Respondents to this poll were far from bonkers. The poll, once you look through its false dichotomy, is essentially asking voters whether a small bunch of violent criminals (or, in the alternative poll he quotes, a small region of the UK) should have a veto on a democratic decision taken by the population of the UK as a whole. Whether you voted Leave or Remain, of course the answer is clear: No. Who can disagree with that?
No amount of dressing it up can change the fact that, in this poll, a majority of leavers profess they would be ready to sacrifice peace in NI.0 -
No.nielh said:
You don't think this is total chaos?Sean_F said:
Because they don't expect it to cause total chaos?nielh said:This all goes back to central problem associated with Brexit. Why did the government give people the option of voting for something that would cause total chaos?
We were told by the stronger In campaign to vote remain to avoid chaos.0 -
I've always believed the majority of people are wrong — for believing that football is more interesting than tennis and cricket.0
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Many people who voted Conservative in 1983 must have known it would piss off both the NUM and the IRA, but that was not a strong argument against voting Conservative.Philip_Thompson said:
Precisely!Richard_Nabavi said:I have the greatest of respect for Alastair, but he's got this one wrong. Respondents to this poll were far from bonkers. The poll, once you look through its false dichotomy, is essentially asking voters whether a small bunch of violent criminals (or, in the alternative poll he quotes, a small region of the UK) should have a veto on a democratic decision taken by the population of the UK as a whole. Whether you voted Leave or Remain, of course the answer is clear: No. Who can disagree with that?
My grandparents generation lived through a war where people weren't just prepared to have a small conflict in a small part of the country to secure our rights. They were prepared to sacrifice their lives and peace across the globe to fight for our rights. We forget that at our peril.
Democracy is more important than Brexit. It is more important than peace.
Put it another way had we voted narrowly to remain and then UKIP turned into a terrorist organisation and started a bombing campaign to get us to leave ... would you have considered remaining as we had voted to do more important or less important than avoiding a conflict? Would you be prepared to give a hypothetical terrorist Farage by bombs and bullets what he failed to get at the ballot box?0 -
Only if you use semantic arguments to pretend that a hard border isn't a hard border. The famous Smart Border 2.0 solution presented to the European parliament is a hard border, for example.Richard_Nabavi said:
That's a variant of the same false dichotomy. (Thanks BTW for your piece of a couple of days ago, which was very good, but which glossed over the point that a hard border isn't the inevitable result of us leaving the Single Market and/or Customs Union).TOPPING said:
Anyone who understands the situation in Northern Ireland.Richard_Nabavi said:I have the greatest of respect for Alastair, but he's got this one wrong. Respondents to this poll were far from bonkers. The poll, once you look through its false dichotomy, is essentially asking voters whether a small bunch of violent criminals (or, in the alternative poll he quotes, a small region of the UK) should have a veto on a democratic decision taken by the population of the UK as a whole. Whether you voted Leave or Remain, of course the answer is clear: No. Who can disagree with that?
Or understands the centuries of history of Irish nationalism. I'm sure we don't have to explain the significance of Padraig Pearse's GPO declaration to you now, do we Richard?0 -
Opinium from 20th July had Leave 52% Remain 48%.williamglenn said:
You keep posting this but it is simply not true. One single poll showed combined support neck and neck with Remain.HYUFD said:Most polls also show support for the Chequers Deal and Hard Brexit combined outweighs support for Remain,
It also had a 7% lead for leave with a deal or leave with no deal over Remain
https://www.opinium.co.uk/political-polling-10th-july-2018-2/0 -
‘Some commentators tried to explain this away as an unwillingness among Leavers to be cowed by terrorism.’
A number of appalling Islamic terrorist atrocities occurred during the referendum campaign. Sadly there were Leavers on here and elsewhere practically salivating over how that would be ‘great for Leave’ in the forthcoming polls. So that rings hollow.0 -
I might argue the Leave vote was itself a false dichotomy.Richard_Nabavi said:I have the greatest of respect for Alastair, but he's got this one wrong. Respondents to this poll were far from bonkers. The poll, once you look through its false dichotomy, is essentially asking voters whether a small bunch of violent criminals (or, in the alternative poll he quotes, a small region of the UK) should have a veto on a democratic decision taken by the population of the UK as a whole. Whether you voted Leave or Remain, of course the answer is clear: No. Who can disagree with that?
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It isn't about the wishes of Irish republicans. The whole peace process in Northern Ireland was based on both the UK and Ireland being in the EU.Sean_F said:
I expect most of us don't prioritise the wishes of Irish Republicans when we cast our votes.Benpointer said:
It's an interesting point about the Troubles being forgotten - the over 50s (who tend to be most heavily Leave) are the very ones who should remember how shitty those times were... not just in Northern Ireland.nielh said:
A fairer question would be whether the creation of a hard border in Ireland, and the attendant risk of civil war, is a price worth paying for Brexit.Richard_Nabavi said:I have the greatest of respect for Alastair, but he's got this one wrong. Respondents to this poll were far from bonkers. The poll, once you look through its false dichotomy, is essentially asking voters whether a small bunch of violent criminals (or, in the alternative poll he quotes, a small region of the UK) should have a veto on a democratic decision taken by the population of the UK as a whole. Whether you voted Leave or Remain, of course the answer is clear: No. Who can disagree with that?
Sadly, people are ignorant about Irish politics. They have either forgotten the troubles, or they don't understand the history.
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A majority of Northern Ireland Protestants voted to Leave the EU, the peace process was brought about by powersharing at Stormont which SF ended, not staying in the EUnielh said:
It isn't about the wishes of Irish republicans. The whole peace process in Northern Ireland was based on both the UK and Ireland being in the EU.Sean_F said:
I expect most of us don't prioritise the wishes of Irish Republicans when we cast our votes.Benpointer said:
It's an interesting point about the Troubles being forgotten - the over 50s (who tend to be most heavily Leave) are the very ones who should remember how shitty those times were... not just in Northern Ireland.nielh said:
A fairer question would be whether the creation of a hard border in Ireland, and the attendant risk of civil war, is a price worth paying for Brexit.Richard_Nabavi said:I have the greatest of respect for Alastair, but he's got this one wrong. Respondents to this poll were far from bonkers. The poll, once you look through its false dichotomy, is essentially asking voters whether a small bunch of violent criminals (or, in the alternative poll he quotes, a small region of the UK) should have a veto on a democratic decision taken by the population of the UK as a whole. Whether you voted Leave or Remain, of course the answer is clear: No. Who can disagree with that?
Sadly, people are ignorant about Irish politics. They have either forgotten the troubles, or they don't understand the history.0 -
Maybe if Israel didn't murder so many Palestinians and then boast about it on Twitter there'd be less genocide allegations.Scott_P said:0 -
Thanks Richard.Richard_Nabavi said:
That's a variant of the same false dichotomy. (Thanks BTW for your piece of a couple of days ago, which was very good, but which glossed over the point that a hard border isn't the inevitable result of us leaving the Single Market and/or Customs Union).TOPPING said:
Anyone who understands the situation in Northern Ireland.Richard_Nabavi said:I have the greatest of respect for Alastair, but he's got this one wrong. Respondents to this poll were far from bonkers. The poll, once you look through its false dichotomy, is essentially asking voters whether a small bunch of violent criminals (or, in the alternative poll he quotes, a small region of the UK) should have a veto on a democratic decision taken by the population of the UK as a whole. Whether you voted Leave or Remain, of course the answer is clear: No. Who can disagree with that?
Or understands the centuries of history of Irish nationalism. I'm sure we don't have to explain the significance of Padraig Pearse's GPO declaration to you now, do we Richard?
I don't think it is (a hard border, the inevitable consequence of us leaving the SM/CU) but they're going to have to get pretty creative around the solution if there isn't to be one.
I haven't read the question for the poll, but I don't think reducing it to "criminals" will aid peoples' understanding.
And also, very interestingly and well stated, @Johnito described the reality of situation well in his post in response to that header. Now, this is also not to say that because we can't police it any more we should accept it, but them's the facts on the ground and it's not just the Crown Forces strength that has changed.
https://politicalbetting.vanillacommunity.com/discussion/comment/1996327#Comment_1996327
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Let's get on with it then.williamglenn said:
Only if you use semantic arguments to pretend that a hard border isn't a hard border. The famous Smart Border 2.0 solution presented to the European parliament is a hard border, for example.Richard_Nabavi said:
That's a variant of the same false dichotomy. (Thanks BTW for your piece of a couple of days ago, which was very good, but which glossed over the point that a hard border isn't the inevitable result of us leaving the Single Market and/or Customs Union).TOPPING said:
Anyone who understands the situation in Northern Ireland.Richard_Nabavi said:I have the greatest of respect for Alastair, but he's got this one wrong. Respondents to this poll were far from bonkers. The poll, once you look through its false dichotomy, is essentially asking voters whether a small bunch of violent criminals (or, in the alternative poll he quotes, a small region of the UK) should have a veto on a democratic decision taken by the population of the UK as a whole. Whether you voted Leave or Remain, of course the answer is clear: No. Who can disagree with that?
Or understands the centuries of history of Irish nationalism. I'm sure we don't have to explain the significance of Padraig Pearse's GPO declaration to you now, do we Richard?0 -
Well it's certainly not Unionists who would cut up rough over Brexit.nielh said:
It isn't about the wishes of Irish republicans. The whole peace process in Northern Ireland was based on both the UK and Ireland being in the EU.Sean_F said:
I expect most of us don't prioritise the wishes of Irish Republicans when we cast our votes.Benpointer said:
It's an interesting point about the Troubles being forgotten - the over 50s (who tend to be most heavily Leave) are the very ones who should remember how shitty those times were... not just in Northern Ireland.nielh said:
A fairer question would be whether the creation of a hard border in Ireland, and the attendant risk of civil war, is a price worth paying for Brexit.Richard_Nabavi said:I have the greatest of respect for Alastair, but he's got this one wrong. Respondents to this poll were far from bonkers. The poll, once you look through its false dichotomy, is essentially asking voters whether a small bunch of violent criminals (or, in the alternative poll he quotes, a small region of the UK) should have a veto on a democratic decision taken by the population of the UK as a whole. Whether you voted Leave or Remain, of course the answer is clear: No. Who can disagree with that?
Sadly, people are ignorant about Irish politics. They have either forgotten the troubles, or they don't understand the history.
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We did hit parity for a short time in late December 2008 - in fact we must have dipped below 1EUR per GBP briefly because I distinctly remember one of our trading systems couldn't handle that and was giving money away one night - we had to quickly shut it down and fix it.rottenborough said:0 -
Nothing semantic about it at all. Currently it's illegal to buy a truckload of booze or fags in Belfast and ship it to Dublin for sale, without declaring it and paying a fat sum to the Irish customs. Tariif divergence. And you can't buy a load of fireworks and take them across the border (legally) at all - regulatory divergence. So there's already a hard border, right?williamglenn said:Only if you use semantic arguments to pretend that a hard border isn't a hard border. The famous Smart Border 2.0 solution presented to the European parliament is a hard border, for example.
I've made this point dozens of times. It has always been ignored by those trying to pretend that somehow tariffs and/or regulatory differences would somehow spontaneously cause border posts to spring out of the bogs, despite the fact that not a single human on this earth wants them.
They are sensible to ignore the point, of course - because it is incontrovertible.0 -
I admire Alastair's ability to switch from complaining how much Brexit has divided Britain to calling a big chunk of Leave voters 'feral'.0
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Good point. +1Philip_Thompson said:
Precisely!Richard_Nabavi said:I have the greatest of respect for Alastair, but he's got this one wrong. Respondents to this poll were far from bonkers. The poll, once you look through its false dichotomy, is essentially asking voters whether a small bunch of violent criminals (or, in the alternative poll he quotes, a small region of the UK) should have a veto on a democratic decision taken by the population of the UK as a whole. Whether you voted Leave or Remain, of course the answer is clear: No. Who can disagree with that?
My grandparents generation lived through a war where people weren't just prepared to have a small conflict in a small part of the country to secure our rights. They were prepared to sacrifice their lives and peace across the globe to fight for our rights. We forget that at our peril.
Democracy is more important than Brexit. It is more important than peace.
Put it another way had we voted narrowly to remain and then UKIP turned into a terrorist organisation and started a bombing campaign to get us to leave ... would you have considered remaining as we had voted to do more important or less important than avoiding a conflict? Would you be prepared to give a hypothetical terrorist Farage by bombs and bullets what he failed to get at the ballot box?0 -
Maybe we should join before we hit parity and continue to the point where parity would look excellent.rottenborough said:
Soon the Pound will be worth tuppence
0 -
Err I think you're looking at the past vote recollection question.HYUFD said:
Opinium from 20th July had Leave 52% Remain 48%.williamglenn said:
You keep posting this but it is simply not true. One single poll showed combined support neck and neck with Remain.HYUFD said:Most polls also show support for the Chequers Deal and Hard Brexit combined outweighs support for Remain,
https://www.opinium.co.uk/political-polling-10th-july-2018-2/0 -
Get on with what? Having a referendum in Northern Ireland on special status in the EU to let them decide?Philip_Thompson said:
Let's get on with it then.williamglenn said:
Only if you use semantic arguments to pretend that a hard border isn't a hard border. The famous Smart Border 2.0 solution presented to the European parliament is a hard border, for example.Richard_Nabavi said:
That's a variant of the same false dichotomy. (Thanks BTW for your piece of a couple of days ago, which was very good, but which glossed over the point that a hard border isn't the inevitable result of us leaving the Single Market and/or Customs Union).TOPPING said:
Anyone who understands the situation in Northern Ireland.Richard_Nabavi said:I have the greatest of respect for Alastair, but he's got this one wrong. Respondents to this poll were far from bonkers. The poll, once you look through its false dichotomy, is essentially asking voters whether a small bunch of violent criminals (or, in the alternative poll he quotes, a small region of the UK) should have a veto on a democratic decision taken by the population of the UK as a whole. Whether you voted Leave or Remain, of course the answer is clear: No. Who can disagree with that?
Or understands the centuries of history of Irish nationalism. I'm sure we don't have to explain the significance of Padraig Pearse's GPO declaration to you now, do we Richard?0 -
No they didn't.Stark_Dawning said:‘Some commentators tried to explain this away as an unwillingness among Leavers to be cowed by terrorism.’
A number of appalling Islamic terrorist atrocities occurred during the referendum campaign. Sadly there were Leavers on here and elsewhere practically salivating over how that would be ‘great for Leave’ in the forthcoming polls. So that rings hollow.
They occurred during the 2017 Genral Election. So your post is wank.
The only attack during the Referendum camapign was the killing of Jo Cox.0 -
There's very much a hard border in terms of the two jurisdictions' treatment of corporate taxation.Richard_Nabavi said:
Nothing semantic about it at all. Currently it's illegal to buy a truckload of booze or fags in Belfast and ship it to Dublin for sale, without declaring it and paying a fat sum to the Irish customs. Tariif divergence. And you can't buy a load of fireworks and take them across the border (legally) at all - regulatory divergence. So there's already a hard border, right?williamglenn said:Only if you use semantic arguments to pretend that a hard border isn't a hard border. The famous Smart Border 2.0 solution presented to the European parliament is a hard border, for example.
I've made this point dozens of times. It has always been ignored by those trying to pretend that somehow tariffs and/or regulatory differences would somehow spontaneously cause border posts to spring out of the bogs, despite the fact that not a single human on this earth wants them.
They are sensible to ignore the point, of course - because it is incontrovertible.0 -
Beverley_C said:
Maybe we should join before we hit parity and continue to the point where parity would look excellent.rottenborough said:
Soon the Pound will be worth tuppence
A good time to buy shares.0 -
OK my mistake but there was still a 7% lead for leave with no deal/leave with a deal over Remainwilliamglenn said:
Err I think you're looking at the past vote recollection question.HYUFD said:
Opinium from 20th July had Leave 52% Remain 48%.williamglenn said:
You keep posting this but it is simply not true. One single poll showed combined support neck and neck with Remain.HYUFD said:Most polls also show support for the Chequers Deal and Hard Brexit combined outweighs support for Remain,
https://www.opinium.co.uk/political-polling-10th-july-2018-2/
0 -
Doh! That "Leave 52% Remain 48%." is in answer to "And how did you vote in the referendum?"HYUFD said:
Opinium from 20th July had Leave 52% Remain 48%.williamglenn said:
You keep posting this but it is simply not true. One single poll showed combined support neck and neck with Remain.HYUFD said:Most polls also show support for the Chequers Deal and Hard Brexit combined outweighs support for Remain,
It also had a 7% lead for leave with a deal or leave with no deal over Remain
https://www.opinium.co.uk/political-polling-10th-july-2018-2/0 -
This is where the press will lose the general public in the Labour antisemitism stuff. We've just had a series of incontrovertible anti-semitic acts by various Labour party figures and the incredible proximity of Corbyn to many of these acts and equivocation over then. It's a slam dunk open and shut case - Corbyn should fucking resign in disgrace. It's clear and obvious.
But the treatment of the Palestinians by the Israeli government is terrible and nuanced and lots of people are going to go "does this mean we can't criticise Israel at all? That's not right" if you start attacking people for criticing Israel's treatment of the Palestinians.
Stick to the clear as day vile antisemitism, don't drag Israeli government actions into the mix.0 -
Comparing Israel to the Nazis is antisemitic.
Accusing Israel of "genocide against the Palestinians" certainly is not, unless it also triggers some of the other definitions too.
If accusing Israel of genocide were prima facie antisemitic, would make it effectively impossible to criticise Israel even if it were doing a genocide. That's obviously not desirable.
McDonnell is walking a dangerous line here, but unlike Corbyn he's smart enough to remain on the plausible deniability side.0 -
Maybe we should join the Euro and swap the 9% unemployment of the worst hard Brexit forecasts for the 16% unemployment in Spain, the 20% unemployment in Greece or the 10% unemployment in Italy in the Eurozone?Beverley_C said:
Maybe we should join before we hit parity and continue to the point where parity would look excellent.rottenborough said:
Soon the Pound will be worth tuppence0 -
Given that they prompted people with this definition of No Deal I would disregard that poll:HYUFD said:
OK my mistake but there was still a 7% lead for leave with no deal/leave with a deal over Remainwilliamglenn said:
Err I think you're looking at the past vote recollection question.HYUFD said:
Opinium from 20th July had Leave 52% Remain 48%.williamglenn said:
You keep posting this but it is simply not true. One single poll showed combined support neck and neck with Remain.HYUFD said:Most polls also show support for the Chequers Deal and Hard Brexit combined outweighs support for Remain,
https://www.opinium.co.uk/political-polling-10th-july-2018-2/
Leaving the EU with no deal – this will mean:
• it will be more difficult and more expensive to trade with countries in the EU
• the UK will be able to agree new trade deals with non-EU countries
• the UK will not be subject to any EU regulations.
• the UK will have control over immigration from EU countries and British citizens' right to live in EU countries will be limited0 -
There has been and is now smuggling. It is a huge issue. But, if I may borrow a phrase from our PB Leavers, it has been accepted as a price worth paying.Richard_Nabavi said:
Nothing semantic about it at all. Currently it's illegal to buy a truckload of booze or fags in Belfast and ship it to Dublin for sale, without declaring it and paying a fat sum to the Irish customs. Tariif divergence. And you can't buy a load of fireworks and take them across the border (legally) at all - regulatory divergence. So there's already a hard border, right?williamglenn said:Only if you use semantic arguments to pretend that a hard border isn't a hard border. The famous Smart Border 2.0 solution presented to the European parliament is a hard border, for example.
I've made this point dozens of times. It has always been ignored by those trying to pretend that somehow tariffs and/or regulatory differences would somehow spontaneously cause border posts to spring out of the bogs, despite the fact that not a single human on this earth wants them.
They are sensible to ignore the point, of course - because it is incontrovertible.
“I do think that a blind eye has been turned for some time for the sake of not wanting to rock the boat but I think in the long term the existence and the entrenchment of these actors in Northern Ireland is deeply problematic also to the peace process,”
https://irishtimes.com/news/crime-and-law/hard-brexit-will-lead-to-surge-in-cross-border-smuggling-says-report-1.33591540 -
Well said.Richard_Nabavi said:
Nothing semantic about it at all. Currently it's illegal to buy a truckload of booze or fags in Belfast and ship it to Dublin for sale, without declaring it and paying a fat sum to the Irish customs. Tariif divergence. And you can't buy a load of fireworks and take them across the border (legally) at all - regulatory divergence. So there's already a hard border, right?williamglenn said:Only if you use semantic arguments to pretend that a hard border isn't a hard border. The famous Smart Border 2.0 solution presented to the European parliament is a hard border, for example.
I've made this point dozens of times. It has always been ignored by those trying to pretend that somehow tariffs and/or regulatory differences would somehow spontaneously cause border posts to spring out of the bogs, despite the fact that not a single human on this earth wants them.
They are sensible to ignore the point, of course - because it is incontrovertible.0 -
That is the correct definition of No Deal so no problem therewilliamglenn said:
Given that they prompted people with this definition of No Deal I would disregard that poll:HYUFD said:
OK my mistake but there was still a 7% lead for leave with no deal/leave with a deal over Remainwilliamglenn said:
Err I think you're looking at the past vote recollection question.HYUFD said:
Opinium from 20th July had Leave 52% Remain 48%.williamglenn said:
You keep posting this but it is simply not true. One single poll showed combined support neck and neck with Remain.HYUFD said:Most polls also show support for the Chequers Deal and Hard Brexit combined outweighs support for Remain,
https://www.opinium.co.uk/political-polling-10th-july-2018-2/
Leaving the EU with no deal – this will mean:
• it will be more difficult and more expensive to trade with countries in the EU
• the UK will be able to agree new trade deals with non-EU countries
• the UK will not be subject to any EU regulations.
• the UK will have control over immigration from EU countries and British citizens' right to live in EU countries will be limited0 -
Suggested improvement (falling pound).Sean_F said:Beverley_C said:
Maybe we should join before we hit parity and continue to the point where parity would look excellent.rottenborough said:
Soon the Pound will be worth tuppence
A good time to buy shares abroad.0 -
Leave with No Deal/Leave with a Deal led Remain by 7% which supports my original pointBenpointer said:
Doh! That "Leave 52% Remain 48%." is in answer to "And how did you vote in the referendum?"HYUFD said:
Opinium from 20th July had Leave 52% Remain 48%.williamglenn said:
You keep posting this but it is simply not true. One single poll showed combined support neck and neck with Remain.HYUFD said:Most polls also show support for the Chequers Deal and Hard Brexit combined outweighs support for Remain,
It also had a 7% lead for leave with a deal or leave with no deal over Remain
https://www.opinium.co.uk/political-polling-10th-july-2018-2/0 -
That seems fair enough, actually.williamglenn said:
Given that they prompted people with this definition of No Deal I would disregard that poll:HYUFD said:
OK my mistake but there was still a 7% lead for leave with no deal/leave with a deal over Remainwilliamglenn said:
Err I think you're looking at the past vote recollection question.HYUFD said:
Opinium from 20th July had Leave 52% Remain 48%.williamglenn said:
You keep posting this but it is simply not true. One single poll showed combined support neck and neck with Remain.HYUFD said:Most polls also show support for the Chequers Deal and Hard Brexit combined outweighs support for Remain,
https://www.opinium.co.uk/political-polling-10th-july-2018-2/
Leaving the EU with no deal – this will mean:
• it will be more difficult and more expensive to trade with countries in the EU
• the UK will be able to agree new trade deals with non-EU countries
• the UK will not be subject to any EU regulations.
• the UK will have control over immigration from EU countries and British citizens' right to live in EU countries will be limited
But, I take the point that the more explanation that's required, the more a poll result should be treated with caution.
Polls are best for answering simple questions, not complex ones.0 -
It hardly gives a flavour of how disruptive it would be. On the topic of this thread, what do you think would happen in Northern Ireland in the event of No Deal?HYUFD said:
That is the correct definition of No Deal so no problem therewilliamglenn said:
Given that they prompted people with this definition of No Deal I would disregard that poll:HYUFD said:
OK my mistake but there was still a 7% lead for leave with no deal/leave with a deal over Remainwilliamglenn said:
Err I think you're looking at the past vote recollection question.HYUFD said:
Opinium from 20th July had Leave 52% Remain 48%.williamglenn said:
You keep posting this but it is simply not true. One single poll showed combined support neck and neck with Remain.HYUFD said:Most polls also show support for the Chequers Deal and Hard Brexit combined outweighs support for Remain,
https://www.opinium.co.uk/political-polling-10th-july-2018-2/
Leaving the EU with no deal – this will mean:
• it will be more difficult and more expensive to trade with countries in the EU
• the UK will be able to agree new trade deals with non-EU countries
• the UK will not be subject to any EU regulations.
• the UK will have control over immigration from EU countries and British citizens' right to live in EU countries will be limited0 -
Maybe we should have that German 3.5% unemployment to the UK's 4.1%?HYUFD said:
Maybe we should join the Euro and swap the 9% unemployment of the worst hard Brexit forecasts for the 16% unemployment in Spain, the 20% unemployment in Greece or the 10% unemployment in Italy in the Eurozone?Beverley_C said:
Maybe we should join before we hit parity and continue to the point where parity would look excellent.rottenborough said:
Soon the Pound will be worth tuppence
Or Germany's 7.7% youth unemployment rate compared to the UK's 15.4%
Or maybe we could have the Eurozone's 2.8% GDP growth rate rather than the UK's pitiable 1.2%?0 -
Domestic shares too.Benpointer said:
Suggested improvement (falling pound).Sean_F said:Beverley_C said:
Maybe we should join before we hit parity and continue to the point where parity would look excellent.rottenborough said:
Soon the Pound will be worth tuppence
A good time to buy shares abroad.0 -
How about a polling question along the lines of.
Should be proceed with Brexit along the lines we wish as a nation or be blackmailed by terrorists into doing something else? Because that is the implication of the Brexit with a customs border vs peace in Ireland as being two alternatives.0 -
That's a fair point, albeit a minor one in the overall scheme of things.TOPPING said:There has been and is now smuggling. It is a huge issue. But, if I may borrow a phrase from our PB Leavers, it has been accepted as a price worth paying.
“I do think that a blind eye has been turned for some time for the sake of not wanting to rock the boat but I think in the long term the existence and the entrenchment of these actors in Northern Ireland is deeply problematic also to the peace process,”
https://irishtimes.com/news/crime-and-law/hard-brexit-will-lead-to-surge-in-cross-border-smuggling-says-report-1.3359154
However, realistically, what are the hard men going to do? Continue smuggling high-value, high-profit, easily sellable items like booze, fags, and fuel, or branch out into chlorinated chickens worth next to nothing, or into obscure machine parts which are easily traceable and which can only be sold to big companies?
One does have to exercise a modicum of common sense in this debate.0 -
It reminds me of Maria Zakharova in its whataboutism and obfuscation.Philip_Thompson said:
Well said.Richard_Nabavi said:
Nothing semantic about it at all. Currently it's illegal to buy a truckload of booze or fags in Belfast and ship it to Dublin for sale, without declaring it and paying a fat sum to the Irish customs. Tariif divergence. And you can't buy a load of fireworks and take them across the border (legally) at all - regulatory divergence. So there's already a hard border, right?williamglenn said:Only if you use semantic arguments to pretend that a hard border isn't a hard border. The famous Smart Border 2.0 solution presented to the European parliament is a hard border, for example.
I've made this point dozens of times. It has always been ignored by those trying to pretend that somehow tariffs and/or regulatory differences would somehow spontaneously cause border posts to spring out of the bogs, despite the fact that not a single human on this earth wants them.
They are sensible to ignore the point, of course - because it is incontrovertible.0 -
About the same as them failing to reach a deal in Stormont.williamglenn said:
It hardly gives a flavour of how disruptive it would be. On the topic of this thread, what do you think would happen in Northern Ireland in the event of No Deal?HYUFD said:
That is the correct definition of No Deal so no problem therewilliamglenn said:
Given that they prompted people with this definition of No Deal I would disregard that poll:HYUFD said:
OK my mistake but there was still a 7% lead for leave with no deal/leave with a deal over Remainwilliamglenn said:
Err I think you're looking at the past vote recollection question.HYUFD said:
Opinium from 20th July had Leave 52% Remain 48%.williamglenn said:
You keep posting this but it is simply not true. One single poll showed combined support neck and neck with Remain.HYUFD said:Most polls also show support for the Chequers Deal and Hard Brexit combined outweighs support for Remain,
https://www.opinium.co.uk/political-polling-10th-july-2018-2/
Leaving the EU with no deal – this will mean:
• it will be more difficult and more expensive to trade with countries in the EU
• the UK will be able to agree new trade deals with non-EU countries
• the UK will not be subject to any EU regulations.
• the UK will have control over immigration from EU countries and British citizens' right to live in EU countries will be limited0 -
A hard border is the inevitable result of leaving the Single Market and Customs Union. There is hardly a trade expert that doesn't think that. I agree with you that it's isn't useful to frame the question in terms of the end of peace in NI. The key point is that the government prioritizes the potential to diverge from the EU over avoiding a hard border in Ireland. Maybe that's a valid choice for them to make. Nevertheless they are making that choice, which will have ramifications for the future of the Union and relations with Ireland and the rest of the EU.Richard_Nabavi said:
That's a variant of the same false dichotomy. (Thanks BTW for your piece of a couple of days ago, which was very good, but which glossed over the point that a hard border isn't the inevitable result of us leaving the Single Market and/or Customs Union).TOPPING said:
Anyone who understands the situation in Northern Ireland.Richard_Nabavi said:I have the greatest of respect for Alastair, but he's got this one wrong. Respondents to this poll were far from bonkers. The poll, once you look through its false dichotomy, is essentially asking voters whether a small bunch of violent criminals (or, in the alternative poll he quotes, a small region of the UK) should have a veto on a democratic decision taken by the population of the UK as a whole. Whether you voted Leave or Remain, of course the answer is clear: No. Who can disagree with that?
Or understands the centuries of history of Irish nationalism. I'm sure we don't have to explain the significance of Padraig Pearse's GPO declaration to you now, do we Richard?0 -
People will sing and dance with joy.williamglenn said:
It hardly gives a flavour of how disruptive it would be. On the topic of this thread, what do you think would happen in Northern Ireland in the event of No Deal?HYUFD said:
That is the correct definition of No Deal so no problem therewilliamglenn said:
Given that they prompted people with this definition of No Deal I would disregard that poll:HYUFD said:
OK my mistake but there was still a 7% lead for leave with no deal/leave with a deal over Remainwilliamglenn said:
Err I think you're looking at the past vote recollection question.HYUFD said:
Opinium from 20th July had Leave 52% Remain 48%.williamglenn said:
You keep posting this but it is simply not true. One single poll showed combined support neck and neck with Remain.HYUFD said:Most polls also show support for the Chequers Deal and Hard Brexit combined outweighs support for Remain,
https://www.opinium.co.uk/political-polling-10th-july-2018-2/
Leaving the EU with no deal – this will mean:
• it will be more difficult and more expensive to trade with countries in the EU
• the UK will be able to agree new trade deals with non-EU countries
• the UK will not be subject to any EU regulations.
• the UK will have control over immigration from EU countries and British citizens' right to live in EU countries will be limited0 -
"First you let the Leavers have their Referendum, and then you let them go and win it!"nielh said:This all goes back to central problem associated with Brexit. Why did the government give people the option of voting for something that would cause total chaos?
0 -
Sean_F said:
It hardly gives a flavour of how disruptive it would be. On the topic of this thread, what do you think would happen in Northern Ireland in the event of No Deal?
UK is placed into special measures and is run by Goldman Sachs.0 -
As I have said the Eurozone largely benefits one country and one country alone, Germany, with interest rates and fiscal policy to suit the Germans above all else.grabcocque said:
Maybe we should have that German 3.5% unemployment to the UK's 4.1%?HYUFD said:
Maybe we should join the Euro and swap the 9% unemployment of the worst hard Brexit forecasts for the 16% unemployment in Spain, the 20% unemployment in Greece or the 10% unemployment in Italy in the Eurozone?Beverley_C said:
Maybe we should join before we hit parity and continue to the point where parity would look excellent.rottenborough said:
Soon the Pound will be worth tuppence
Or Germany's 7.7% youth unemployment rate compared to the UK's 15.4%
Or maybe we could have the Eurozone's 2.8% GDP growth rate rather than the UK's pitiable 1.2%?
France, Italy and Spain all have higher unemployment and lower GDP per capita than the UK does. Only Germany of the major Eurozone nations has lower unemployment and higher gdp per capita than the UK does0 -
They're pretending to make that choice, but as of Chequers the pretence has been revealed, which is why Brexiteers are so enraged.FF43 said:A hard border is the inevitable result of leaving the Single Market and Customs Union. There is hardly a trade expert that doesn't think that. I agree with you that it's isn't useful to frame the question in terms of the end of peace in NI. The key point is that the government prioritizes the potential to diverge from the EU over avoiding a hard border in Ireland. Maybe that's a valid choice for them to make. Nevertheless they are making that choice, which will have ramifications for the future of the Union and relations with Ireland and the rest of the EU.
0 -
No erecting that hard border if the EU won't give us a deal. If the people of NI want a border poll they can back parties putting that into their manifesto at an election.williamglenn said:
Get on with what? Having a referendum in Northern Ireland on special status in the EU to let them decide?Philip_Thompson said:
Let's get on with it then.williamglenn said:
Only if you use semantic arguments to pretend that a hard border isn't a hard border. The famous Smart Border 2.0 solution presented to the European parliament is a hard border, for example.Richard_Nabavi said:
That's a variant of the same false dichotomy. (Thanks BTW for your piece of a couple of days ago, which was very good, but which glossed over the point that a hard border isn't the inevitable result of us leaving the Single Market and/or Customs Union).TOPPING said:
Anyone who understands the situation in Northern Ireland.Richard_Nabavi said:I have the greatest of respect for Alastair, but he's got this one wrong. Respondents to this poll were far from bonkers. The poll, once you look through its false dichotomy, is essentially asking voters whether a small bunch of violent criminals (or, in the alternative poll he quotes, a small region of the UK) should have a veto on a democratic decision taken by the population of the UK as a whole. Whether you voted Leave or Remain, of course the answer is clear: No. Who can disagree with that?
Or understands the centuries of history of Irish nationalism. I'm sure we don't have to explain the significance of Padraig Pearse's GPO declaration to you now, do we Richard?0 -
I thought we already were, in common with most of the world?grabcocque said:Sean_F said:
It hardly gives a flavour of how disruptive it would be. On the topic of this thread, what do you think would happen in Northern Ireland in the event of No Deal?
UK is placed into special measures and is run by Goldman Sachs.0 -
Yeah - and Boris hasn’t helped.rottenborough said:
This one just runs and runs doesn't it.Scott_P said:
Labour must be extremely relieved that no one outside us junkies is paying any attention as it is hot and summer holidays.
Interesting though that after McDonnell’s intervention, which was implicitly critical of Corbyn, all this stuff comes out about what McDonnell has said and done. There’s some backstabbing going on, I think.
Do they? Genocide has a very specific meaning. See the relevant international law on this. Israel can be criticised for its treatment of the Palestinians within the Occupied Territories but it is not committing genocide on any interpretation of the term, let alone legally. Using such overheated language is all part of a concerted campaign to justify Israel’s destruction.grabcocque said:I don't wish to defend Corbyn or his lackeys, but...
Well, it *is* okay to accuse Israel of attempted genocide isn't it? Countries get accused of attempted or successful genocide all the time.
0 -
Goldman Sachs abolished by Trump and Boris or Corbyn and Sanders?grabcocque said:Sean_F said:
It hardly gives a flavour of how disruptive it would be. On the topic of this thread, what do you think would happen in Northern Ireland in the event of No Deal?
UK is placed into special measures and is run by Goldman Sachs.0 -
Meeks Vs Boris
Canada Vs Saudi
Ferals Vs Letterboxes
The culture wars are truly upon us0 -
One could argue the Palestinian population in Palestine has actually gone UP since Israel's foundation.Cyclefree said:
Yeah - and Boris hasn’t helped.rottenborough said:
This one just runs and runs doesn't it.Scott_P said:
Labour must be extremely relieved that no one outside us junkies is paying any attention as it is hot and summer holidays.
Interesting though that after McDonnell’s intervention, which was implicitly critical of Corbyn, all this stuff comes out about what McDonnell has said and done. There’s some backstabbing going on, I think.
Do they? Genocide has a very specific meaning. See the relevant international law on this. Israel can be criticised for its treatment of the Palestinians within the Occupied Territories but it is not committing genocide on any interpretation of the term, let alone legally. Using such overheated language is all part of a concerted campaign to justify Israel’s destruction.grabcocque said:I don't wish to defend Corbyn or his lackeys, but...
Well, it *is* okay to accuse Israel of attempted genocide isn't it? Countries get accused of attempted or successful genocide all the time.0 -
Depends on the symbolism of how they "police" it. Adding chlorinated chicken to a paper list of verboten items or those which have differential tariffs and that's that? Not much, although one extra revenue opportunity.Richard_Nabavi said:
That's a fair point, albeit a minor one in the overall scheme of things.TOPPING said:There has been and is now smuggling. It is a huge issue. But, if I may borrow a phrase from our PB Leavers, it has been accepted as a price worth paying.
“I do think that a blind eye has been turned for some time for the sake of not wanting to rock the boat but I think in the long term the existence and the entrenchment of these actors in Northern Ireland is deeply problematic also to the peace process,”
https://irishtimes.com/news/crime-and-law/hard-brexit-will-lead-to-surge-in-cross-border-smuggling-says-report-1.3359154
However, realistically, what are the hard men going to do? Continue smuggling high-value, high-profit, easily sellable items like booze, fags, and fuel, or branch out into chlorinated chickens worth next to nothing, or into obscure machine parts which are easily traceable and which can only be sold to big companies?
One does have to exercise a modicum of common sense in this debate.
Anyone wanting to formalise the inspection process at that entry point (and not before), then much more of an issue.
I of course have no idea how, where, or when eg. phytosanitary checks are performed. Please don't tell me we don't have an expert on PB to tell us.0 -
That's not necessary. The Secretary of State is legally obliged to call a border poll if she feels there would be a majority for unification. We're not far off that threshold.Philip_Thompson said:
No erecting that hard border if the EU won't give us a deal. If the people of NI want a border poll they can back parties putting that into their manifesto at an election.williamglenn said:
Get on with what? Having a referendum in Northern Ireland on special status in the EU to let them decide?Philip_Thompson said:
Let's get on with it then.williamglenn said:
Only if you use semantic arguments to pretend that a hard border isn't a hard border. The famous Smart Border 2.0 solution presented to the European parliament is a hard border, for example.Richard_Nabavi said:
That's a variant of the same false dichotomy. (Thanks BTW for your piece of a couple of days ago, which was very good, but which glossed over the point that a hard border isn't the inevitable result of us leaving the Single Market and/or Customs Union).TOPPING said:
Anyone who understands the situation in Northern Ireland.Richard_Nabavi said:I have the greatest of respect for Alastair, but he's got this one wrong. Respondents to this poll were far from bonkers. The poll, once you look through its false dichotomy, is essentially asking voters whether a small bunch of violent criminals (or, in the alternative poll he quotes, a small region of the UK) should have a veto on a democratic decision taken by the population of the UK as a whole. Whether you voted Leave or Remain, of course the answer is clear: No. Who can disagree with that?
Or understands the centuries of history of Irish nationalism. I'm sure we don't have to explain the significance of Padraig Pearse's GPO declaration to you now, do we Richard?
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I don't think anyone sane in Northern Ireland (protestant or catholic) voted for a return to the troubles.HYUFD said:
A majority of Northern Ireland Protestants voted to Leave the EU, the peace process was brought about by powersharing at Stormont which SF ended, not staying in the EUnielh said:
It isn't about the wishes of Irish republicans. The whole peace process in Northern Ireland was based on both the UK and Ireland being in the EU.Sean_F said:
I expect most of us don't prioritise the wishes of Irish Republicans when we cast our votes.Benpointer said:
It's an interesting point about the Troubles being forgotten - the over 50s (who tend to be most heavily Leave) are the very ones who should remember how shitty those times were... not just in Northern Ireland.nielh said:
A fairer question would be whether the creation of a hard border in Ireland, and the attendant risk of civil war, is a price worth paying for Brexit.Richard_Nabavi said:I have the greatest of respect for Alastair, but he's got this one wrong. Respondents to this poll were far from bonkers. The poll, once you look through its false dichotomy, is essentially asking voters whether a small bunch of violent criminals (or, in the alternative poll he quotes, a small region of the UK) should have a veto on a democratic decision taken by the population of the UK as a whole. Whether you voted Leave or Remain, of course the answer is clear: No. Who can disagree with that?
Sadly, people are ignorant about Irish politics. They have either forgotten the troubles, or they don't understand the history.
The problem has been for some time that the English are obsessed with leaving not just the EU but also the single market/customs union and making trade deals with the rest of the world, without really thinking through the consequences of this for Ireland.0 -
Lol, just lol. The irony calling leavers unhinged after reading possibly the most unhinged article on PB since I joined a decade ago.0
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They do by the left. Especially America, which gets accused of genocide fairly frequently. It isn't, sadly, particularly uncommon for countries to attempt eradicate a section of their population, either in whole or in part.Cyclefree said:
Do they? Genocide has a very specific meaning. See the relevant international law on this. Israel can be criticised for its treatment of the Palestinians within the Occupied Territories but it is not committing genocide on any interpretation of the term, let alone legally. Using such overheated language is all part of a concerted campaign to justify Israel’s destruction.
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After SF pulled out of Stormont the GFA is effectively dead anyway for the foreseeable future and with the Government reliant on the DUP to survive no Secretary of State will even consider a border pollwilliamglenn said:
That's not necessary. The Secretary of State is legally obliged to call a border poll if she feels there would be a majority for unification. We're not far off that threshold.Philip_Thompson said:
No erecting that hard border if the EU won't give us a deal. If the people of NI want a border poll they can back parties putting that into their manifesto at an election.williamglenn said:
Get on with what? Having a referendum in Northern Ireland on special status in the EU to let them decide?Philip_Thompson said:
Let's get on with it then.williamglenn said:
Only if you use semantic arguments to pretend that a hard border isn't a hard border. The famous Smart Border 2.0 solution presented to the European parliament is a hard border, for example.Richard_Nabavi said:
That's a variant of the same false dichotomy. (Thanks BTW for your piece of a couple of days ago, which was very good, but which glossed over the point that a hard border isn't the inevitable result of us leaving the Single Market and/or Customs Union).TOPPING said:
Anyone who understands the situation in Northern Ireland.Richard_Nabavi said:I have the greatest of respect for Alastair, but he's got this one wrong. Respondents to this poll were far from bonkers. The poll, once you look through its false dichotomy, is essentially asking voters whether a small bunch of violent criminals (or, in the alternative poll he quotes, a small region of the UK) should have a veto on a democratic decision taken by the population of the UK as a whole. Whether you voted Leave or Remain, of course the answer is clear: No. Who can disagree with that?
Or understands the centuries of history of Irish nationalism. I'm sure we don't have to explain the significance of Padraig Pearse's GPO declaration to you now, do we Richard?0
