politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Topping, who served with the British Army in Northern Ireland

RoyalBlue said:

Is is reasonable of Sinn Fein and others to claim that even cameras would be against the spirit of the Belfast Agreement? No.

Wulfrun_Phil said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Wulfrun_Phil said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

O/T What’s the best statistical method to see if there’s a correlation between two data sets?

It depends. Please be more specific.

The more marginal the seat, the bigger the swing at the election.

OK, since the data points are each of similar size and you are testing for no more than a simple linear relationship, ordinary least squares regression is fine and can be done on Excel. I assume you are measuring the size of the swing in a particular direction. If you are looking at the absolute scale of the swing regardless of direction you would need to convert all the negative swings to positive first. Think about subdividing your data sets e.g. would you expect a relationship for England/Wales to hold for Scotland as well.

AnneJGP said:

Recidivist said:

DavidL said:

Recidivist said:

Just changed some money for a trip to Berlin. In the real world, shouldn't we be arguing about whether it is now time to join the Euro rather than even thinking about leaving the EU?

If anyone has an argument for not joining the Euro that doesn't involve invoking arcane knowledge of economics that can't be explained in everyday language, I'd love to hear it.

Seriously?

We need the flexibility of our own currency to offset the uncertainty that we are now facing. I simply cannot imagine a worse time to fix our currency. Even if we were not leaving the consequences of a long term fixed rate can be very, very negative. Ask Italy.



We are likely to see a significant reduction in the volume of our trade with the EU over the next few years, especially if there is no deal. Why would we want to fix our rate with them leaving us no ability to change with other customers such as the US?

We need the ability to print our own money should circumstances require it. Eurozone countries don't have that ability.

The Euro has major structural issues showing up through the target 2 imbalances. At some point some countries are going to get seriously hurt by this. It is not in our interests to expose ourselves to such risks.

How does a means of exchange have a structure? What is target 2 and just how unbalanced can it get? Why should I care? I've been earning and spending money for 4 decades, and assiduously following the news. Economic events continue to happen without the slightest warning from the practitioners of the dismal science. I've reached the conclusion that while there do seem to be some rules and patterns of behaviour in that part of life we call economics, they are only amenable to a hazy level of understanding. Those who study these matters closely seem to have no better judgement than the rest of us. Indeed, they might even be worse.

So on the Euro - I have just spent time getting the folding stuff and paid a commission to buy them. So my trip to Berlin will be costlier than it would have been had we joined the single currency. Maybe the costs of joining at a macro level would be greater. Or maybe it would have been positively beneficial to join. I don't know. I see no evidence that anybody else does either.

Just as well you're not going to the US, I suppose. Wouldn't the arguments for joining the dollar be the same?

TheScreamingEagles said:

Eesh

https://twitter.com/wesstreeting/status/1026405340412366850

TheScreamingEagles said:

Wulfrun_Phil said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

O/T What’s the best statistical method to see if there’s a correlation between two data sets?

It depends. Please be more specific.

The more marginal the seat, the bigger the swing at the election.

Recidivist said:

AnneJGP said:

Recidivist said:

DavidL said:

Recidivist said:

Just changed some money for a trip to Berlin. In the real world, shouldn't we be arguing about whether it is now time to join the Euro rather than even thinking about leaving the EU?

If anyone has an argument for not joining the Euro that doesn't involve invoking arcane knowledge of economics that can't be explained in everyday language, I'd love to hear it.

Seriously?

We need the flexibility of our own currency to offset the uncertainty that we are now facing. I simply cannot imagine a worse time to fix our currency. Even if we were not leaving the consequences of a long term fixed rate can be very, very negative. Ask Italy.



We are likely to see a significant reduction in the volume of our trade with the EU over the next few years, especially if there is no deal. Why would we want to fix our rate with them leaving us no ability to change with other customers such as the US?

We need the ability to print our own money should circumstances require it. Eurozone countries don't have that ability.

The Euro has major structural issues showing up through the target 2 imbalances. At some point some countries are going to get seriously hurt by this. It is not in our interests to expose ourselves to such risks.

How does a means of exchange have a structure? What is target 2 and just how unbalanced can it get? Why should I care? I've been earning and spending money for 4 decades, and assiduously following the news. Economic events continue to happen without the slightest warning from the practitioners of the dismal science. I've reached the conclusion that while there do seem to be some rules and patterns of behaviour in that part of life we call economics, they are only amenable to a hazy level of understanding. Those who study these matters closely seem to have no better judgement than the rest of us. Indeed, they might even be worse.

So on the Euro - I have just spent time getting the folding stuff and paid a commission to buy them. So my trip to Berlin will be costlier than it would have been had we joined the single currency. Maybe the costs of joining at a macro level would be greater. Or maybe it would have been positively beneficial to join. I don't know. I see no evidence that anybody else does either.

Just as well you're not going to the US, I suppose. Wouldn't the arguments for joining the dollar be the same?

We don't have the political option of joining the dollar at the moment.

Cyclefree said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Cyclefree said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Is it just me that is struggling to understand what all the fuss about Boris's article is about?

Considering it was penned in the context of the burqa being banned by many, many liberal European democracies ... and that while it may not be common or especially polite to say they look like that, it is accurate to say it ... what is the big deal?

It undermines or distracts people from what might otherwise be a good argument against such face coverings. The argument against the burqa is not, after all, an aesthetic one. And it also feels a bit like bullying of the woman wearing it. It misses the point and allows those who want the burqa to focus on the language used rather than engage with the argument about why it should be banned

But he's not calling for it to be banned!

Here he is calling for it not to be banned, despite plenty of liberal nations doing so ... and he's getting vilified by those who don't want it to be banned.

If he was calling for a ban then it would make sense to moderate the language. But he's basically saying "I don't like this but I don't want it banned despite not liking it."

Regardless, it is not necessary to his argument to describe the women wearing it looking like letterboxes. It really isn’t. It is simply a distraction. I don’t like the burqa and would ban it. But what people wearing it look like is irrelevant.

He’s using ad hominem or perhaps ad feminem language and it allows those in perpetual grievance mode (aka the MCB) to accuse him of islamophobia or whatever. Sometimes colourful language helps make a point. And sometimes it distracts and detracts. In this case, it is the latter. Johnson is, I think, so fond of writing or speaking using colourful language that he often lacks the judgment to know when it is appropriate and, critically, when it isn’t.

williamglenn said:

RoyalBlue said:

Is is reasonable of Sinn Fein and others to claim that even cameras would be against the spirit of the Belfast Agreement? No.

The answer to this is a clear "Yes". The Good Friday Agreement was explicitly predicated on both sides being EU member states and therefore subject to ever closer economic union. It's a grotesque distortion of the context of the GFA to argue that imposing any kind of new bureaucracy that inhibits cross-border economic activity is consistent withit.

rpjs said:

SandyRentool said:

rpjs said:

SandyRentool said:

AlastairMeeks said:

So far one Leaver has sought to reannex Ireland and one has sought to replace its head of government with someone more amenable to Leave interests. You can't fault their ambitions.

Sorry I've been away a while. I'm not advocating that the UK annexes Ireland. I'm merely suggesting we go back to the arrangement we had before both sovereign nation states got sucked in to the Brussels black hole.

So you mean telling the Irish that they must leave the EU too? I think they would consider that tantamount to reannexation.

I am suggesting that the Irish government should reflect what would be in their economic interest, and act accordingly.

And yet when we Remainers suggest the British government should do the same...

Casino_Royale said:

Thanks Topping. I didn’t know you’d served.

Excellent article.

Casino_Royale said:

williamglenn said:

RobD said:

Nor do we have the option of joining the Euro. A poll back in 2012 put support for joining the Euro at 6%.

More recent polls are available. Put it in a binary referendum versus a No Deal Brexit and it would stand a good chance.
https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/943497227342962689

It would seal a victory for a No Deal Brexit.

RobD said:

Recidivist said:

AnneJGP said:

Recidivist said:

DavidL said:

Recidivist said:

Just changed some money for a trip to Berlin. In the real world, shouldn't we be arguing about whether it is now time to join the Euro rather than even thinking about leaving the EU?

If anyone has an argument for not joining the Euro that doesn't involve invoking arcane knowledge of economics that can't be explained in everyday language, I'd love to hear it.

Seriously?

We need the flexibility of our own currency to offset the uncertainty that we are now facing. I simply cannot imagine a worse time to fix our currency. Even if we were not leaving the consequences of a long term fixed rate can be very, very negative. Ask Italy.

We need the ability to print our own money should circumstances require it. Eurozone countries don't have that ability.

The Euro has major structural issues showing up through the target 2 imbalances. At some point some countries are going to get seriously hurt by this. It is not in our interests to expose ourselves to such risks.

hose who study these matters closely seem to have no better judgement than the rest of us. Indeed, they might even be worse.

So on the Euro - I have just spent time getting the folding stuff and paid a commission to buy them. So my trip to Berlin will be costlier than it would have been had we joined the single currency. Maybe the costs of joining at a macro level would be greater. Or maybe it would have been positively beneficial to join. I don't know. I see no evidence that anybody else does either.

Just as well you're not going to the US, I suppose. Wouldn't the arguments for joining the dollar be the same?

We don't have the political option of joining the dollar at the moment.

Nor do we have the option of joining the Euro. A poll back in 2012 put support for joining the Euro at 6%.

Philip_Thompson said:

Cyclefree said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Cyclefree said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Is it just me that is struggling to understand what all the fuss about Boris's article is about?

Considering it was penned in the context of the burqa being banned by many, many liberal European democracies ... and that while it may not be common or especially polite to say they look like that, it is accurate to say it ... what is the big deal?

It undermines or distracts people from what might otherwise be a good argument against such face coverings. The argument against the burqa is not, after all, an aesthetic one. And it also feels a bit like bullying of the woman wearing it. It misses the point and allows those who want the burqa to focus on the language used rather than engage with the argument about why it should be banned

But he's not calling for it to be banned!

Here he is calling for it not to be banned, despite plenty of liberal nations doing so ... and he's getting vilified by those who don't want it to be banned.

If he was calling for a ban then it would make sense to moderate the language. But he's basically saying "I don't like this but I don't want it banned despite not liking it."

Regardless, it is not necessary to his argument to describe the women wearing it looking like letterboxes. It really isn’t. It is simply a distraction. I don’t like the burqa and would ban it. But what people wearing it look like is irrelevant.

He’s using ad hominem or perhaps ad feminem language and it allows those in perpetual grievance mode (aka the MCB) to accuse him of islamophobia or whatever. Sometimes colourful language helps make a point. And sometimes it distracts and detracts. In this case, it is the latter. Johnson is, I think, so fond of writing or speaking using colourful language that he often lacks the judgment to know when it is appropriate and, critically, when it isn’t.

I would think what he wrote would be an ad hominem only if it was either false or irrelevant to the point. It was neither. Ok the letterbox one was a bit cheeky but the other comparison is very apt and was seriously expounded on throughout the article when discussing how and why face to face conversations are important.

It seems that people are so used to those in perpetual grievance mode that now any discussion on the topic ends up out of bounds even one where the author is explicitly calling for us not to copy a neighbouring European nation in banning it.

williamglenn said:

Sean_F said:

williamglenn said:

RoyalBlue said:

Is is reasonable of Sinn Fein and others to claim that even cameras would be against the spirit of the Belfast Agreement? No.

The answer to this is a clear "Yes". The Good Friday Agreement was explicitly predicated on both sides being EU member states and therefore subject to ever closer economic union. It's a grotesque distortion of the context of the GFA to argue that imposing any kind of new bureaucracy that inhibits cross-border economic activity is consistent withit.

You can argue it is implicit. It is certainly not explicit.

You can argue it is implicit that both parties should be members of the UN although it is not stated anywhere. Membership of the EU on the other hand is explicitly part of the preamble and has referred to in strand two.

Sean_F said:

williamglenn said:

Sean_F said:

williamglenn said:

RoyalBlue said:

Is is reasonable of Sinn Fein and others to claim that even cameras would be against the spirit of the Belfast Agreement? No.

The answer to this is a clear "Yes". The Good Friday Agreement was explicitly predicated on both sides being EU member states and therefore subject to ever closer economic union. It's a grotesque distortion of the context of the GFA to argue that imposing any kind of new bureaucracy that inhibits cross-border economic activity is consistent withit.

You can argue it is implicit. It is certainly not explicit.

You can argue it is implicit that both parties should be members of the UN although it is not stated anywhere. Membership of the EU on the other hand is explicitly part of the preamble and has referred to in strand two.

There is no legal commitment on the part of either Ireland or the UK that either State, or Northern Ireland, remains part of the EU.

Philip_Thompson said:

Cyclefree said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Cyclefree said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Cyclefree said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Is it just me that is struggling to understand what all the fuss about Boris's article is about?

Considering it was penned in the context of the burqa being banned by many, many liberal European democracies ... and that while it may not be common or especially polite to say they look like that, it is accurate to say it ... what is the big deal?

It undermines or distracts people from what might otherwise be a good argument against such face coverings. The argument against the burqa is not, after all, an aesthetic one. And it also feels a bit like bullying of the woman wearing it. It misses the point and allows those who want the burqa to focus on the language used rather than engage with the argument about why it should be banned

But he's not calling for it to be banned!

Here he is calling for it not to be banned, despite plenty of liberal nations doing so ... and he's getting vilified by those who don't want it to be banned.

If he was calling for a ban then it would make sense to moderate the language. But he's basically saying "I don't like this but I don't want it banned despite not liking it."

Regardless, it is not necessary to his argument to describe the women wearing it looking like letterboxes. It really isn’t. It is simply a distraction. I don’t like the burqa and would ban it. But what people wearing it look like is irrelevant.

He’s using ad hominem or perhaps ad feminem language and it allows those in perpetual grievance mode (aka the MCB) to accuse him of islamophobia or whatever. Sometimes colourful language helps make a point. And sometimes it distracts and detracts. In this case, it is the latter. Johnson is, I think, so fond of writing or speaking using colourful language that he often lacks the judgment to know when it is appropriate and, critically, when it isn’t.

I would think what he wrote would be an ad hominem only if it was either false or irrelevant to the point. It was neither. Ok the letterbox one was a bit cheeky but the other comparison is very apt and was seriously expounded on throughout the article when discussing how and why face to face conversations are important.

It seems that people are so used to those in perpetual grievance mode that now any discussion on the topic ends up out of bounds even one where the author is explicitly calling for us not to copy a neighbouring European nation in banning it.

What was the other comparison please? I can’t read the full article.

Bank robbers.

RoyalBlue said:

williamglenn said:

RoyalBlue said:

Is is reasonable of Sinn Fein and others to claim that even cameras would be against the spirit of the Belfast Agreement? No.

The answer to this is a clear "Yes". The Good Friday Agreement was explicitly predicated on both sides being EU member states and therefore subject to ever closer economic union. It's a grotesque distortion of the context of the GFA to argue that imposing any kind of new bureaucracy that inhibits cross-border economic activity is consistent withit.

I’m afraid this just demonstrates how unhinged you are when it comes to Brexit. I was talking to an SDLP supporter last week who couldn’t see anything wrong with cameras.

Sinn Fein don’t speak for all nationalists, and they certainly don’t speak for Northern Ireland.

Recidivist said:

RobD said:

Recidivist said:

AnneJGP said:

Recidivist said:

DavidL said:

Recidivist said:

Just changed some money for a trip to Berlin. In the real world, shouldn't we be arguing about whether it is now time to join the Euro rather than even thinking about leaving the EU?

If anyone has an argument for not joining the Euro that doesn't involve invoking arcane knowledge of economics that can't be explained in everyday language, I'd love to hear it.

Seriously?

We need the flexibility of our own currency to offset the uncertainty that we are now facing. I simply cannot imagine a worse time to fix our currency. Even if we were not leaving the consequences of a long term fixed rate can be very, very negative. Ask Italy.

We need the ability to print our own money should circumstances require it. Eurozone countries don't have that ability.

The Euro has major structural issues showing up through the target 2 imbalances. At some point some countries are going to get seriously hurt by this. It is not in our interests to expose ourselves to such risks.

hose who study these matters closely seem to have no better judgement than the rest of us. Indeed, they might even be worse.

Just as well you're not going to the US, I suppose. Wouldn't the arguments for joining the dollar be the same?

We don't have the political option of joining the dollar at the moment.

Nor do we have the option of joining the Euro. A poll back in 2012 put support for joining the Euro at 6%.

A poll in 2010 had only 1% regarding the EU as an important issue.

The referendum has transformed how many of us think about the EU. In my case, I never gave it a moment's thought until the referendum campaign. I didn't waste too much time on it even then. But since then I have become very enthusiastic about it. If you'd asked me about the Euro in 2012 I would have been a don't know, or possibly even anti. I don't think I'm alone. Who knows what will happen once we've left? There is now an active body of opinion that will want to take us back in. They'll probably want to get straight into the Euro as well.

HYUFD said:

williamglenn said:

RobD said:

Nor do we have the option of joining the Euro. A poll back in 2012 put support for joining the Euro at 6%.

More recent polls are available. Put it in a binary referendum versus a No Deal Brexit and it would stand a good chance.
https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/943497227342962689

A 67% win for sterling over the Euro would be the joint biggest landslide in any national vote in the UK since WW2 alongside the No to AV win in 2011 and the vote to join the Common Market in 1975.

Foxy said:

One of the more interesting phenomena of Brexit was to see a mass demonstration of several hundred thousand europhiles demonstrating in June. This is not something that I have seen in my lifetime, and I donot think that you are the only one who has become more appreciative of the benefits of the EU since the referendum.

williamglenn said:

That's not the point. The operation of the Good Friday Agreement makes assumptions about the parties being part of a union facilitating North-South economic integration and it is therefore right that if one party withdraws from that union, a settlement is reached that allows all of that to continue on the same basis.

The only reason anyone is seeking to quibble about this is because of a latent assumption that the UK is the more powerful party to the agreement and therefore should be able to impose its will.

Sean_F said:

williamglenn said:

Sean_F said:

williamglenn said:

Sean_F said:

williamglenn said:

RoyalBlue said:

Is is reasonable of Sinn Fein and others to claim that even cameras would be against the spirit of the Belfast Agreement? No.

The answer to this is a clear "Yes". The Good Friday Agreement was explicitly predicated on both sides being EU member states and therefore subject to ever closer economic union. It's a grotesque distortion of the context of the GFA to argue that imposing any kind of new bureaucracy that inhibits cross-border economic activity is consistent withit.

You can argue it is implicit. It is certainly not explicit.

You can argue it is implicit that both parties should be members of the UN although it is not stated anywhere. Membership of the EU on the other hand is explicitly part of the preamble and has referred to in strand two.

There is no legal commitment on the part of either Ireland or the UK that either State, or Northern Ireland, remains part of the EU.

That's not the point. The operation of the Good Friday Agreement makes assumptions about the parties being part of a union facilitating North-South economic integration and it is therefore right that if one party withdraws from that union, a settlement is reached that allows all of that to continue on the same basis.

The only reason anyone is seeking to quibble about this is because of a latent assumption that the UK is the more powerful party to the agreement and therefore should be able to impose its will.

It's probably the solicitor in me speaking, but I tend to think that what I agree to should be reflected in the text that I sign up to. Unspoken assumptions about what the parties agreed to, but which were not reflected in the text, lead to all sorts of trouble.
.
When Ireland joined the Euro, at the same time as Northern Ireland retained sterling, this acted as a big barrier to economic integration between North and South, but nobody has argued that Ireland was not entitled to join the Eurozone, or that Northern Ireland was required to follow them into it.

Sean_F said:

HYUFD said:

williamglenn said:

RobD said:

Nor do we have the option of joining the Euro. A poll back in 2012 put support for joining the Euro at 6%.

More recent polls are available. Put it in a binary referendum versus a No Deal Brexit and it would stand a good chance.
https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/943497227342962689

A 67% win for sterling over the Euro would be the joint biggest landslide in any national vote in the UK since WW2 alongside the No to AV win in 2011 and the vote to join the Common Market in 1975.

There was a YouGov Eurotrack poll in the Spring that tested support for euro membership across various countries.

It had support in the UK at 10%, opposition at 67%.

Foxy said:

HYUFD said:

williamglenn said:

RobD said:

Nor do we have the option of joining the Euro. A poll back in 2012 put support for joining the Euro at 6%.

More recent polls are available. Put it in a binary referendum versus a No Deal Brexit and it would stand a good chance.
https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/943497227342962689

A 67% win for sterling over the Euro would be the joint biggest landslide in any national vote in the UK since WW2 alongside the No to AV win in 2011 and the vote to join the Common Market in 1975.

It does show that a substantial minority of Britons are not merely wanting the status quo ante of spring 2016.

Personally, I am not bothered either way. On recent trips to Russia, Sweden and Spain I used electronic money and hardly touched physical cash.

HYUFD said:

Foxy said:

HYUFD said:

williamglenn said:

RobD said:

Nor do we have the option of joining the Euro. A poll back in 2012 put support for joining the Euro at 6%.

More recent polls are available. Put it in a binary referendum versus a No Deal Brexit and it would stand a good chance.
https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/943497227342962689

A 67% win for sterling over the Euro would be the joint biggest landslide in any national vote in the UK since WW2 alongside the No to AV win in 2011 and the vote to join the Common Market in 1975.

It does show that a substantial minority of Britons are not merely wanting the status quo ante of spring 2016.

Personally, I am not bothered either way. On recent trips to Russia, Sweden and Spain I used electronic money and hardly touched physical cash.

Though the 20% unemployment in Greece, the 16% unemployment in Spain and the 10% unemployment in Italy show the negative effects of the Euro

Foxy said:

HYUFD said:

Foxy said:

HYUFD said:

williamglenn said:

RobD said:

Nor do we have the option of joining the Euro. A poll back in 2012 put support for joining the Euro at 6%.

More recent polls are available. Put it in a binary referendum versus a No Deal Brexit and it would stand a good chance.
https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/943497227342962689

A 67% win for sterling over the Euro would be the joint biggest landslide in any national vote in the UK since WW2 alongside the No to AV win in 2011 and the vote to join the Common Market in 1975.

It does show that a substantial minority of Britons are not merely wanting the status quo ante of spring 2016.

Personally, I am not bothered either way. On recent trips to Russia, Sweden and Spain I used electronic money and hardly touched physical cash.

Though the 20% unemployment in Greece, the 16% unemployment in Spain and the 10% unemployment in Italy show the negative effects of the Euro

I think they show poor internal governance by sovereign national governments.

HYUFD said:

IanB2 said:

HYUFD said:

williamglenn said:

HYUFD said:

williamglenn said:

Casino_Royale said:

williamglenn said:

RobD said:

Nor do we have the option of joining the Euro. A poll back in 2012 put support for joining the Euro at 6%.

More recent polls are available. Put it in a binary referendum versus a No Deal Brexit and it would stand a good chance.
https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/943497227342962689

It would seal a victory for a No Deal Brexit.

How long would Northern Ireland stay in Poundland after a No Deal Brexit? How about Scotland?

"If it's a Yes, we will say 'on we go', and if it's a No we will say 'we continue'."

Given the majority of Northern Ireland Protestants voted Leave anyway in the case of Protestant majority counties Antrim and Down indefinitely.

Do any of your fellow Conservative activists share your passion for partitioning Northern Ireland or is it just your own hobby horse?

It is the Conservative AND Unionist Party for a reason.

Protestant majority counties should not be forced into the Republic against their will as the Conservative led government in 1921 accepted when it created Northern Ireland in the first place rather than forcing it into the new Catholic majority Irish Free State

But in a recent poll 50% of respondents agreed that HYUFD was deliberately spreading misinformation about the views of Tory members with 25% responding that he means well but is misguided. This PROVES you are wrong!

So clearly zero polling evidence there then if you just want to be pathetic

williamglenn said:

RobD said:

williamglenn said:

Sean_F said:

If the GFA is predicated upon economic integration between North and South, as you claim, then if one party imposes a barrier to economic integration, by joining a single currency zone that the other party refuses to join, then obviously it's relevant.

The GFA seems to mean whatever you want it to mean. You can't point to actual paragraphs that back up your claims, but you just make the claims anyway.

But it's not a barrier - it's exactly the same as the status quo. There were two different currencies before Ireland joined the Euro and there remained two different currencies afterwards, albeit with the option that the UK could join the same currency in the future.

From the GFA:

"Wishing to develop still further the unique relationship between their peoples and the close co-operation between their countries as friendly neighbours and as partners in the European Union"

"17. The Council to consider the European Union dimension of relevant matters, including the implementation of EU policies and programmes and proposals under consideration in the EU framework. Arrangements to be made to ensure that the views of the Council are taken into account and represented appropriately at relevant EU meetings. "

I suppose we'll just have to continue as friendly neighbours then.

And as partners in the European Union...

Anazina said:

Foxy said:

HYUFD said:

williamglenn said:

RobD said:

Nor do we have the option of joining the Euro. A poll back in 2012 put support for joining the Euro at 6%.

More recent polls are available. Put it in a binary referendum versus a No Deal Brexit and it would stand a good chance.
https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/943497227342962689

A 67% win for sterling over the Euro would be the joint biggest landslide in any national vote in the UK since WW2 alongside the No to AV win in 2011 and the vote to join the Common Market in 1975.

It does show that a substantial minority of Britons are not merely wanting the status quo ante of spring 2016.

Personally, I am not bothered either way. On recent trips to Russia, Sweden and Spain I used electronic money and hardly touched physical cash.

I spent two and a half weeks in the states over the winter, touring through some fairly remote areas at times. I never touched a single dollar. Cash is dead.

Anazina said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Anazina said:

Foxy said:

HYUFD said:

williamglenn said:

RobD said:

Nor do we have the option of joining the Euro. A poll back in 2012 put support for joining the Euro at 6%.

More recent polls are available. Put it in a binary referendum versus a No Deal Brexit and it would stand a good chance.
https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/943497227342962689

A 67% win for sterling over the Euro would be the joint biggest landslide in any national vote in the UK since WW2 alongside the No to AV win in 2011 and the vote to join the Common Market in 1975.

It does show that a substantial minority of Britons are not merely wanting the status quo ante of spring 2016.

Personally, I am not bothered either way. On recent trips to Russia, Sweden and Spain I used electronic money and hardly touched physical cash.

I spent two and a half weeks in the states over the winter, touring through some fairly remote areas at times. I never touched a single dollar. Cash is dead.

Did you not tip anybody? In US, that is seen as more than a tad rude.

You’ve clearly not been to the states for a while. They all have iPads where you just press a screen to add a tip. Done instantly.

FrancisUrquhart said:

Anazina said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Anazina said:

Foxy said:

HYUFD said:

williamglenn said:

RobD said:

Nor do we have the option of joining the Euro. A poll back in 2012 put support for joining the Euro at 6%.

More recent polls are available. Put it in a binary referendum versus a No Deal Brexit and it would stand a good chance.
https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/943497227342962689

A 67% win for sterling over the Euro would be the joint biggest landslide in any national vote in the UK since WW2 alongside the No to AV win in 2011 and the vote to join the Common Market in 1975.

It does show that a substantial minority of Britons are not merely wanting the status quo ante of spring 2016.

Personally, I am not bothered either way. On recent trips to Russia, Sweden and Spain I used electronic money and hardly touched physical cash.

I spent two and a half weeks in the states over the winter, touring through some fairly remote areas at times. I never touched a single dollar. Cash is dead.

Did you not tip anybody? In US, that is seen as more than a tad rude.

You’ve clearly not been to the states for a while. They all have iPads where you just press a screen to add a tip. Done instantly.

I didn't just mean restaurants.

RobD said:

Anazina said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Anazina said:

Foxy said:

HYUFD said:

williamglenn said:

RobD said:

Nor do we have the option of joining the Euro. A poll back in 2012 put support for joining the Euro at 6%.

More recent polls are available. Put it in a binary referendum versus a No Deal Brexit and it would stand a good chance.
https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/943497227342962689

A 67% win for sterling over the Euro would be the joint biggest landslide in any national vote in the UK since WW2 alongside the No to AV win in 2011 and the vote to join the Common Market in 1975.

It does show that a substantial minority of Britons are not merely wanting the status quo ante of spring 2016.

Personally, I am not bothered either way. On recent trips to Russia, Sweden and Spain I used electronic money and hardly touched physical cash.

I spent two and a half weeks in the states over the winter, touring through some fairly remote areas at times. I never touched a single dollar. Cash is dead.

Did you not tip anybody? In US, that is seen as more than a tad rude.

You’ve clearly not been to the states for a while. They all have iPads where you just press a screen to add a tip. Done instantly.

And typically starting at a low of 15 or 18%. Bloody cheeky those things.

rpjs said:

RobD said:

Anazina said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Anazina said:

Foxy said:

HYUFD said:

williamglenn said:

RobD said:

Nor do we have the option of joining the Euro. A poll back in 2012 put support for joining the Euro at 6%.

More recent polls are available. Put it in a binary referendum versus a No Deal Brexit and it would stand a good chance.
https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/943497227342962689

A 67% win for sterling over the Euro would be the joint biggest landslide in any national vote in the UK since WW2 alongside the No to AV win in 2011 and the vote to join the Common Market in 1975.

It does show that a substantial minority of Britons are not merely wanting the status quo ante of spring 2016.

Personally, I am not bothered either way. On recent trips to Russia, Sweden and Spain I used electronic money and hardly touched physical cash.

I spent two and a half weeks in the states over the winter, touring through some fairly remote areas at times. I never touched a single dollar. Cash is dead.

Did you not tip anybody? In US, that is seen as more than a tad rude.

You’ve clearly not been to the states for a while. They all have iPads where you just press a screen to add a tip. Done instantly.

And typically starting at a low of 15 or 18%. Bloody cheeky those things.

~20% is the standard tip in a restaurant here in the US now.

FrancisUrquhart said:

Anazina said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Anazina said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Anazina said:

Foxy said:

HYUFD said:

williamglenn said:

RobD said:

Nor do we have the option of joining the Euro. A poll back in 2012 put support for joining the Euro at 6%.

More recent polls are available. Put it in a binary referendum versus a No Deal Brexit and it would stand a good chance.
https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/943497227342962689

A 67% win for sterling over the Euro would be the joint biggest landslide in any national vote in the UK since WW2 alongside the No to AV win in 2011 and the vote to join the Common Market in 1975.

It does show that a substantial minority of Britons are not merely wanting the status quo ante of spring 2016.

Personally, I am not bothered either way. On recent trips to Russia, Sweden and Spain I used electronic money and hardly touched physical cash.

I spent two and a half weeks in the states over the winter, touring through some fairly remote areas at times. I never touched a single dollar. Cash is dead.

Did you not tip anybody? In US, that is seen as more than a tad rude.

You’ve clearly not been to the states for a while. They all have iPads where you just press a screen to add a tip. Done instantly.

I didn't just mean restaurants.

Restaurants, bars, coffee shops, hotels. Everywhere I went, they all had them. Didn’t need a scrap of cash.

You obviously haven't drunk in some the of the dive bars I have....

Sean_F said:

williamglenn said:

Sean_F said:

williamglenn said:

Sean_F said:

williamglenn said:

RoyalBlue said:

Is is reasonable of Sinn Fein and others to claim that even cameras would be against the spirit of the Belfast Agreement? No.

The answer to this is a clear "Yes". The Good Friday Agreement was explicitly predicated on both sides being EU member states and therefore subject to ever closer economic union. It's a grotesque distortion of the context of the GFA to argue that imposing any kind of new bureaucracy that inhibits cross-border economic activity is consistent withit.

You can argue it is implicit. It is certainly not explicit.

You can argue it is implicit that both parties should be members of the UN although it is not stated anywhere. Membership of the EU on the other hand is explicitly part of the preamble and has referred to in strand two.

There is no legal commitment on the part of either Ireland or the UK that either State, or Northern Ireland, remains part of the EU.

That's not the point. The operation of the Good Friday Agreement makes assumptions about the parties being part of a union facilitating North-South economic integration and it is therefore right that if one party withdraws from that union, a settlement is reached that allows all of that to continue on the same basis.

The only reason anyone is seeking to quibble about this is because of a latent assumption that the UK is the more powerful party to the agreement and therefore should be able to impose its will.

It's probably the solicitor in me speaking, but I tend to think that what I agree to should be reflected in the text that I sign up to. Unspoken assumptions about what the parties agreed to, but which were not reflected in the text, lead to all sorts of trouble.
.
When Ireland joined the Euro, at the same time as Northern Ireland retained sterling, this acted as a big barrier to economic integration between North and South, but nobody has argued that Ireland was not entitled to join the Eurozone, or that Northern Ireland was required to follow them into it.

RobD said:

rpjs said:

RobD said:

Anazina said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Anazina said:

Foxy said:

HYUFD said:

williamglenn said:

RobD said:

Nor do we have the option of joining the Euro. A poll back in 2012 put support for joining the Euro at 6%.

More recent polls are available. Put it in a binary referendum versus a No Deal Brexit and it would stand a good chance.
https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/943497227342962689

A 67% win for sterling over the Euro would be the joint biggest landslide in any national vote in the UK since WW2 alongside the No to AV win in 2011 and the vote to join the Common Market in 1975.

It does show that a substantial minority of Britons are not merely wanting the status quo ante of spring 2016.

Personally, I am not bothered either way. On recent trips to Russia, Sweden and Spain I used electronic money and hardly touched physical cash.

I spent two and a half weeks in the states over the winter, touring through some fairly remote areas at times. I never touched a single dollar. Cash is dead.

Did you not tip anybody? In US, that is seen as more than a tad rude.

You’ve clearly not been to the states for a while. They all have iPads where you just press a screen to add a tip. Done instantly.

And typically starting at a low of 15 or 18%. Bloody cheeky those things.

~20% is the standard tip in a restaurant here in the US now.

15% is my standard, unless I get service above and beyond.

Sean_F said:

williamglenn said:

Sean_F said:

williamglenn said:

Sean_F said:

williamglenn said:

Sean_F said:

williamglenn said:

RoyalBlue said:

Is is reasonable of Sinn Fein and others to claim that even cameras would be against the spirit of the Belfast Agreement? No.

The answer to this is a clear "Yes". The Good Friday Agreement was explicitly predicated on both sides being EU member states and therefore subject to ever closer economic union. It's a grotesque distortion of the context of the GFA to argue that imposing any kind of new bureaucracy that inhibits cross-border economic activity is consistent withit.

You can argue it is implicit. It is certainly not explicit.

You can argue it is implicit that both parties should be members of the UN although it is not stated anywhere. Membership of the EU on the other hand is explicitly part of the preamble and has referred to in strand two.

There is no legal commitment on the part of either Ireland or the UK that either State, or Northern Ireland, remains part of the EU.

s.

The only reason anyone is seeking to quibble about this is because of a latent assumption that the UK is the more powerful party to the agreement and therefore should be able to impose its will.

Joining the Euro is irrelevant to the Good Friday Agreement given that it just swapped one different currency for another. In fact at the time it was widely anticipated that Blair would hold a referendum on the UK joining the Euro.

As for unspoken assumptions in a political agreement, if Ireland has succeeded in imposing its view of those assumptions on the UK government, you just have to live with it. It's water under the bridge, and if it affects the kind of Brexit you dream of, tough.

If the GFA is predicated upon economic integration between North and South, as you claim, then if one party imposes a barrier to economic integration, by joining a single currency zone that the other party refuses to join, then obviously it's relevant.

The GFA seems to mean whatever you want it to mean. You can't point to actual paragraphs that back up your claims, but you just make the claims anyway.

Sean_F said:

HYUFD said:

williamglenn said:

RobD said:

Nor do we have the option of joining the Euro. A poll back in 2012 put support for joining the Euro at 6%.

More recent polls are available. Put it in a binary referendum versus a No Deal Brexit and it would stand a good chance.
https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/943497227342962689

A 67% win for sterling over the Euro would be the joint biggest landslide in any national vote in the UK since WW2 alongside the No to AV win in 2011 and the vote to join the Common Market in 1975.

There was a YouGov Eurotrack poll in the Spring that tested support for euro membership across various countries.

It had support in the UK at 10%, opposition at 67%.

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/margarethodge/status/1026527912428797957
h ttps://twitter.com/margarethodge/status/1026527925531758593

rpjs said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

rpjs said:

RobD said:

Anazina said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Anazina said:

Foxy said:

HYUFD said:

williamglenn said:

RobD said:

Nor do we have the option of joining the Euro. A poll back in 2012 put support for joining the Euro at 6%.

More recent polls are available. Put it in a binary referendum versus a No Deal Brexit and it would stand a good chance.
https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/943497227342962689

A 67% win for sterling over the Euro would be the joint biggest landslide in any national vote in the UK since WW2 alongside the No to AV win in 2011 and the vote to join the Common Market in 1975.

It does show that a substantial minority of Britons are not merely wanting the status quo ante of spring 2016.

Personally, I am not bothered either way. On recent trips to Russia, Sweden and Spain I used electronic money and hardly touched physical cash.

I spent two and a half weeks in the states over the winter, touring through some fairly remote areas at times. I never touched a single dollar. Cash is dead.

Did you not tip anybody? In US, that is seen as more than a tad rude.

You’ve clearly not been to the states for a while. They all have iPads where you just press a screen to add a tip. Done instantly.

And typically starting at a low of 15 or 18%. Bloody cheeky those things.

~20% is the standard tip in a restaurant here in the US now.

It is one of my biggest gripes about travelling in the US. Not only the wide spread nature of tipping, but the level at which tips are expected.

Servers make all their income from tips. The small amount of basic salary they get paid is withheld as tax on the amounts the IRS assumes they get as tips. They also have to tip out co-workers such as bussers and runners based on their sales not their actual tips. If you don't or under-tip your server in the US, they've paid to serve you.

HYUFD said:

JosiasJessop said:

HYUFD said:

IanB2 said:

HYUFD said:

williamglenn said:

HYUFD said:

williamglenn said:

Casino_Royale said:

williamglenn said:

RobD said:

Nor do we have the option of joining the Euro. A poll back in 2012 put support for joining the Euro at 6%.

More recent polls are available. Put it in a binary referendum versus a No Deal Brexit and it would stand a good chance.
https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/943497227342962689

It would seal a victory for a No Deal Brexit.

How long would Northern Ireland stay in Poundland after a No Deal Brexit? How about Scotland?

"If it's a Yes, we will say 'on we go', and if it's a No we will say 'we continue'."

Given the majority of Northern Ireland Protestants voted Leave anyway in the case of Protestant majority counties Antrim and Down indefinitely.

Do any of your fellow Conservative activists share your passion for partitioning Northern Ireland or is it just your own hobby horse?

It is the Conservative AND Unionist Party for a reason.

Protestant majority counties should not be forced into the Republic against their will as the Conservative led government in 1921 accepted when it created Northern Ireland in the first place rather than forcing it into the new Catholic majority Irish Free State

But in a recent poll 50% of respondents agreed that HYUFD was deliberately spreading misinformation about the views of Tory members with 25% responding that he means well but is misguided. This PROVES you are wrong!

So clearly zero polling evidence there then if you just want to be pathetic

About as much as a ConHome survey!

ConHonlme got the 2005 Tory leadership election spot on

Casino_Royale said:

Fwiw, I agree that cameras on the border are almost certain to be routinely vandalised.

The solution is to have such customs checks intelligence led and in-border, not on the border, with NI having a special status in both the UK and wrt. to Eire and the EU.

Just like it does now.