politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Punters now make it a 63% chance that the UK will leave the EU

Barnesian said:

Pulpstar said:

Omnium said:

Stark_Dawning said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Stark_Dawning said:

As much as the Leavers would like some kind of legal challenge to derail Brexit this will not, and indeed should not, be allowed to happen. There must be no easy left off for those who orchestrated this mischief. We hear today that Farage is airily content to see British manufacturing put to the sword to facilitate his plans. I'd hate to see this happen myself, but 'the Will of the People' and all that. No, the Leavers have made their decision. Not seeing it through is the coward's way out.

Are you sure you mean leavers in your first sentence

Absolutely! They'd never admit it, but Leavers would secretly love Brexit to be cancelled, in a way in which they could still cry foul while breathing a silent sigh of relief.

I think I'd prefer to leave and then reapply. At least we have some semblance of a constitution if we do that. Something must be done, and be seen to have been done as a result of the referendum.

I think we're far enough along with the process that its just a matter of getting to actual Brexit. After that everything can be finessed at everyone's leisure. We could rejoin the most euro-hugger of things on a case-by-case basis. The default position is the only thing that's changed - our new default is don't join, whereas our old default was join, and in fact must join.

Leaving then rejoining would honour the referendum result whereas remaining would not. Like Ireland's abortion laws the consent would be with the British people

Leaving with an unprepared crashout might honour the referendum result but would be completely insane. It would be parliament's duty to prevent that.

Brexit has already happened......

Europhiles can live to fight another day, like they did in the 50's and 60's when they won the argument.....

Casino_Royale said:

williamglenn said:

The German carmakers to the rescue.
https://twitter.com/BBCBusiness/status/1010202128734998529

Did you even read the post on the previous thread?

https://www2.deloitte.com/content/dam/Deloitte/de/Documents/Brexit/Brexit-Briefings_Pt5_Hard-Brexit-German-car-industry.pdf

The German carmarkers are in far deeper shit than we'd be (we'd actually be slightly better off) in the event of a no-deal Brexit.

These are political manoeveres. Plain and simple.

Brexit is indeed lose / lose. However that report only considers the UK import market in isolation from the export market. It claims, correctly IMO that the UK market would see a substitution of RoW cars for EU manufactured ones. It also claims there would be some substitution of UK manufactured cars for EU ones. The problem is that UK exports to the EU would be massively curtailed at the same time and it's unlikely the UK market would have the economy of scale to retain much indigenous manufacture for purely local consumption. Overall UK manufactured cars and components will certainly be reduced. Brexit will affect a much larger proportion of UK manufacture than of EU manufacture, which makes substitution more difficult.

Pulpstar said:

Omnium said:

Stark_Dawning said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Stark_Dawning said:

As much as the Leavers would like some kind of legal challenge to derail Brexit this will not, and indeed should not, be allowed to happen. There must be no easy left off for those who orchestrated this mischief. We hear today that Farage is airily content to see British manufacturing put to the sword to facilitate his plans. I'd hate to see this happen myself, but 'the Will of the People' and all that. No, the Leavers have made their decision. Not seeing it through is the coward's way out.

Are you sure you mean leavers in your first sentence

Absolutely! They'd never admit it, but Leavers would secretly love Brexit to be cancelled, in a way in which they could still cry foul while breathing a silent sigh of relief.

I think I'd prefer to leave and then reapply. At least we have some semblance of a constitution if we do that. Something must be done, and be seen to have been done as a result of the referendum.

I think we're far enough along with the process that its just a matter of getting to actual Brexit. After that everything can be finessed at everyone's leisure. We could rejoin the most euro-hugger of things on a case-by-case basis. The default position is the only thing that's changed - our new default is don't join, whereas our old default was join, and in fact must join.

Leaving then rejoining would honour the referendum result whereas remaining would not. Like Ireland's abortion laws the consent would be with the British people

Yes.

FF43 said:

Casino_Royale said:

williamglenn said:

The German carmakers to the rescue.
https://twitter.com/BBCBusiness/status/1010202128734998529

Did you even read the post on the previous thread?

https://www2.deloitte.com/content/dam/Deloitte/de/Documents/Brexit/Brexit-Briefings_Pt5_Hard-Brexit-German-car-industry.pdf

The German carmarkers are in far deeper shit than we'd be (we'd actually be slightly better off) in the event of a no-deal Brexit.

These are political manoeveres. Plain and simple.

Brexit is indeed lose / lose. However that report only considers the UK import market in isolation from the export market. It claims, correctly IMO that the UK market would see a substitution of RoW cars for EU manufactured ones. It also claims there would be some substitution of UK manufactured cars for EU ones. The problem is that UK exports to the EU would be massively curtailed at the same time and it's unlikely the UK market would have the economy of scale to retain much indigenous manufacture for purely local consumption. Overall UK manufactured cars and components will certainly be reduced. Brexit will affect a much larger proportion of UK manufacture than of EU manufacture, which makes substitution more difficult.

Do you understand the report? The whole report says the costs of the cars increasing means a decrease in sales. The main drivers of the increase in cost is a 10% tariff and fall in the pound.
For UK manufacturers the pound fall negates the 10% tariff so the sales remain the same.

ralphmalph said:

FF43 said:

Casino_Royale said:

williamglenn said:

The German carmakers to the rescue.
https://twitter.com/BBCBusiness/status/1010202128734998529

Did you even read the post on the previous thread?

https://www2.deloitte.com/content/dam/Deloitte/de/Documents/Brexit/Brexit-Briefings_Pt5_Hard-Brexit-German-car-industry.pdf

The German carmarkers are in far deeper shit than we'd be (we'd actually be slightly better off) in the event of a no-deal Brexit.

These are political manoeveres. Plain and simple.

Brexit is indeed lose / lose. However that report only considers the UK import market in isolation from the export market. It claims, correctly IMO that the UK market would see a substitution of RoW cars for EU manufactured ones. It also claims there would be some substitution of UK manufactured cars for EU ones. The problem is that UK exports to the EU would be massively curtailed at the same time and it's unlikely the UK market would have the economy of scale to retain much indigenous manufacture for purely local consumption. Overall UK manufactured cars and components will certainly be reduced. Brexit will affect a much larger proportion of UK manufacture than of EU manufacture, which makes substitution more difficult.

Do you understand the report? The whole report says the costs of the cars increasing means a decrease in sales. The main drivers of the increase in cost is a 10% tariff and fall in the pound.
For UK manufacturers the pound fall negates the 10% tariff so the sales remain the same.

That would only be true if 100% of the content of the car was locally sourced. Given that we have no iron ore or copper and are a net importer of oil and energy, it is next to impossible that you could ever have a car with more than 75% UK content. Simlarly, capital expense in a car factory is almost entirely imported: assembly line automation from Honeywell, and robots from Kuka in Germany for example.

The labour content of a Nissan made in Sunderland is only about 3% of the sale price (for Nissan - obviously across the value chain it's higher). That's not a lot of the car that gets cheaper with a 10% devaluation.

FF43 said:

ralphmalph said:

FF43 said:

Casino_Royale said:

williamglenn said:

The German carmakers to the rescue.
https://twitter.com/BBCBusiness/status/1010202128734998529

Did you even read the post on the previous thread?

https://www2.deloitte.com/content/dam/Deloitte/de/Documents/Brexit/Brexit-Briefings_Pt5_Hard-Brexit-German-car-industry.pdf

The German carmarkers are in far deeper shit than we'd be (we'd actually be slightly better off) in the event of a no-deal Brexit.

These are political manoeveres. Plain and simple.

Brexit is indeed lose / lose. However that report only considers the UK import market in isolation from the export market. It claims, correctly IMO that the UK market would see a substitution of RoW cars for EU manufactured ones. It also claims there would be some substitution of UK manufactured cars for EU ones. The problem is that UK exports to the EU would be massively curtailed at the same time and it's unlikely the UK market would have the economy of scale to retain much indigenous manufacture for purely local consumption. Overall UK manufactured cars and components will certainly be reduced. Brexit will affect a much larger proportion of UK manufacture than of EU manufacture, which makes substitution more difficult.

Do you understand the report? The whole report says the costs of the cars increasing means a decrease in sales. The main drivers of the increase in cost is a 10% tariff and fall in the pound.
For UK manufacturers the pound fall negates the 10% tariff so the sales remain the same.

I do understand the report, which is the effect of Brexit on the German car industry (somewhat bad). It doesn't concern itself with the effect of Brexit on the UK car industry (much worse), including exports, because it wasn't in its remit to investigate that and so it didn't.

Explain why the effect on the UK car industry is much worse when the price of the exports will basically be the same. Tariffs offset by fall in pound when converted to Euros for EU customers?

ralphmalph said:

FF43 said:

ralphmalph said:

FF43 said:

Casino_Royale said:

williamglenn said:

The German carmakers to the rescue.
https://twitter.com/BBCBusiness/status/1010202128734998529

Did you even read the post on the previous thread?

https://www2.deloitte.com/content/dam/Deloitte/de/Documents/Brexit/Brexit-Briefings_Pt5_Hard-Brexit-German-car-industry.pdf

The German carmarkers are in far deeper shit than we'd be (we'd actually be slightly better off) in the event of a no-deal Brexit.

These are political manoeveres. Plain and simple.

Brexit is indeed lose / lose. However that report only considers the UK import market in isolation from the export market. It claims, correctly IMO that the UK market would see a substitution of RoW cars for EU manufactured ones. It also claims there would be some substitution of UK manufactured cars for EU ones. The problem is that UK exports to the EU would be massively curtailed at the same time and it's unlikely the UK market would have the economy of scale to retain much indigenous manufacture for purely local consumption. Overall UK manufactured cars and components will certainly be reduced. Brexit will affect a much larger proportion of UK manufacture than of EU manufacture, which makes substitution more difficult.

Do you understand the report? The whole report says the costs of the cars increasing means a decrease in sales. The main drivers of the increase in cost is a 10% tariff and fall in the pound.
For UK manufacturers the pound fall negates the 10% tariff so the sales remain the same.

I do understand the report, which is the effect of Brexit on the German car industry (somewhat bad). It doesn't concern itself with the effect of Brexit on the UK car industry (much worse), including exports, because it wasn't in its remit to investigate that and so it didn't.

Explain why the effect on the UK car industry is much worse when the price of the exports will basically be the same. Tariffs offset by fall in pound when converted to Euros for EU customers?

You keep repeating this, but it would only be true if a car made in the UK was 100% domestic content, and that is essentially impossible

I guess a stopped clock is right twice and day, and every once in a while Granit Xhaka will find the net rather than the corner flag.

FF43 said:

Barnesian said:

It is important to consider the endgame if May continues to procrastinate and not face up to the contradictions in her position and her opponents in Cabinet. There will be an endgame. It is inescapable.

I think Grieve was rehearsing this in his tortured journey to a meaningful vote if there is no deal. He will have a key role with Starmer where there mutual respect (Starmer was DPP under Grieve as AG).

Correct. There needs to be a crisis so the necessary resolution happens. At that point people will stop caring about immigration, payments to Brussels etc. It could be extremely painful. Right now everyone is in denial. In particular the Government. Leavers are obviously in denial, but Remainers too, to some extent.

Your hopes and dreams, again. I bet you go to sleep at night wishing about Brussels punishing the UK and dream about the EU taking over at Westminster.

MaxPB said:

FF43 said:

Barnesian said:

It is important to consider the endgame if May continues to procrastinate and not face up to the contradictions in her position and her opponents in Cabinet. There will be an endgame. It is inescapable.

I think Grieve was rehearsing this in his tortured journey to a meaningful vote if there is no deal. He will have a key role with Starmer where there mutual respect (Starmer was DPP under Grieve as AG).

Correct. There needs to be a crisis so the necessary resolution happens. At that point people will stop caring about immigration, payments to Brussels etc. It could be extremely painful. Right now everyone is in denial. In particular the Government. Leavers are obviously in denial, but Remainers too, to some extent.

Your hopes and dreams, again. I bet you go to sleep at night wishing about Brussels punishing the UK and dream about the EU taking over at Westminster.

Deleted.

Philip_Thompson said:

JosiasJessop said:

Casino_Royale said:

williamglenn said:

The German carmakers to the rescue.
https://twitter.com/BBCBusiness/status/1010202128734998529

Did you even read the post on the previous thread?

https://www2.deloitte.com/content/dam/Deloitte/de/Documents/Brexit/Brexit-Briefings_Pt5_Hard-Brexit-German-car-industry.pdf

The German carmarkers are in far deeper shit than we'd be (we'd actually be slightly better off) in the event of a no-deal Brexit.

These are political manoeveres. Plain and simple.

Whilst there is some truth in your last line, I doubt it is as plain, simple or one-dimensional as that. People - and especially successful multinational companies - usually weigh up a whole load of factors when making decisions or statements.

They generally don't just spout any old sh*te off the top of their heads based on headlines. We can leave that to politicians.

Really? What reason do you have to believe that?

How many multinationals threatened to leave the UK if we didn't join the Euro?
How many did?

Reality. You should try it sometime.

rcs1000 said:

ralphmalph said:

FF43 said:

ralphmalph said:

FF43 said:

Casino_Royale said:

williamglenn said:

The German carmakers to the rescue.
https://twitter.com/BBCBusiness/status/1010202128734998529

Did you even read the post on the previous thread?

https://www2.deloitte.com/content/dam/Deloitte/de/Documents/Brexit/Brexit-Briefings_Pt5_Hard-Brexit-German-car-industry.pdf

The German carmarkers are in far deeper shit than we'd be (we'd actually be slightly better off) in the event of a no-deal Brexit.

These are political manoeveres. Plain and simple.

Brexit is indeed lose / lose. However that report only considers the UK import market in isolation from the export market. It claims, correctly IMO that the UK market would see a substitution of RoW cars for EU manufactured ones. It also claims there would be some substitution of UK manufactured cars for EU ones. The problem is that UK exports to the EU would be massively curtailed at the same time and it's unlikely the UK market would have the economy of scale to retain much indigenous manufacture for purely local consumption. Overall UK manufactured cars and components will certainly be reduced. Brexit will affect a much larger proportion of UK manufacture than of EU manufacture, which makes substitution more difficult.

Do you understand the report? The whole report says the costs of the cars increasing means a decrease in sales. The main drivers of the increase in cost is a 10% tariff and fall in the pound.
For UK manufacturers the pound fall negates the 10% tariff so the sales remain the same.

I do understand the report, which is the effect of Brexit on the German car industry (somewhat bad). It doesn't concern itself with the effect of Brexit on the UK car industry (much worse), including exports, because it wasn't in its remit to investigate that and so it didn't.

Explain why the effect on the UK car industry is much worse when the price of the exports will basically be the same. Tariffs offset by fall in pound when converted to Euros for EU customers?

You keep repeating this, but it would only be true if a car made in the UK was 100% domestic content, and that is essentially impossible

Yes, I understand your point but the fact still remains that we have a cushion. As the Deloitte report states the increase in cost of the UK car is 800 Euro which they say is 3%. I assume they have factored in the increase in energy costs plus increase of copper and steel.
They have stated pound falls 10%. So there is a 3% increase in production costs and a 10% fall in the value of sterling.

Richard_Tyndall said:

tyson said:

Barnesian said:

Pulpstar said:

Omnium said:

Stark_Dawning said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Stark_Dawning said:

As much as the Leavers would like some kind of legal challenge to derail Brexit this will not, and indeed should not, be allowed to happen. There must be no easy left off for those who orchestrated this mischief. We hear today that Farage is airily content to see British manufacturing put to the sword to facilitate his plans. I'd hate to see this happen myself, but 'the Will of the People' and all that. No, the Leavers have made their decision. Not seeing it through is the coward's way out.

Are you sure you mean leavers in your first sentence

Absolutely! They'd never admit it, but Leavers would secretly love Brexit to be cancelled, in a way in which they could still cry foul while breathing a silent sigh of relief.

I think I'd prefer to leave and then reapply. At least we have some semblance of a constitution if we do that. Something must be done, and be seen to have been done as a result of the referendum.

I think we're far enough along with the process that its just a matter of getting to actual Brexit. After that everything can be finessed at everyone's leisure. We could rejoin the most euro-hugger of things on a case-by-case basis. The default position is the only thing that's changed - our new default is don't join, whereas our old default was join, and in fact must join.

Leaving then rejoining would honour the referendum result whereas remaining would not. Like Ireland's abortion laws the consent would be with the British people

Leaving with an unprepared crashout might honour the referendum result but would be completely insane. It would be parliament's duty to prevent that.

Brexit has already happened......

Europhiles can live to fight another day, like they did in the 50's and 60's when they won the argument.....

Except of course rejoining the EU now woild be a very different proposal to what was being offered in the 50s and 60s. The idea any campaign to rejoin would be anything other than an abject failure is fanciful.

Yep. Which hopsital wards are Rejoiners going to close, when they have to give back the Brexit Bonus to pay our membership fees?

MaxPB said:

FF43 said:

Barnesian said:

It is important to consider the endgame if May continues to procrastinate and not face up to the contradictions in her position and her opponents in Cabinet. There will be an endgame. It is inescapable.

I think Grieve was rehearsing this in his tortured journey to a meaningful vote if there is no deal. He will have a key role with Starmer where there mutual respect (Starmer was DPP under Grieve as AG).

Correct. There needs to be a crisis so the necessary resolution happens. At that point people will stop caring about immigration, payments to Brussels etc. It could be extremely painful. Right now everyone is in denial. In particular the Government. Leavers are obviously in denial, but Remainers too, to some extent.

Your hopes and dreams, again. I bet you go to sleep at night wishing about Brussels punishing the UK and dream about the EU taking over at Westminster.

Yo Max is in the house!

But you’ve got it wrong. We don’t just want the EU to take over Westminster, we want new laws forcing British citizens to speak French or German on Monday, Wednesday and Saturdays.

Max please keep up.

TOPPING said:

MaxPB said:

FF43 said:

Barnesian said:

It is important to consider the endgame if May continues to procrastinate and not face up to the contradictions in her position and her opponents in Cabinet. There will be an endgame. It is inescapable.

I think Grieve was rehearsing this in his tortured journey to a meaningful vote if there is no deal. He will have a key role with Starmer where there mutual respect (Starmer was DPP under Grieve as AG).

Correct. There needs to be a crisis so the necessary resolution happens. At that point people will stop caring about immigration, payments to Brussels etc. It could be extremely painful. Right now everyone is in denial. In particular the Government. Leavers are obviously in denial, but Remainers too, to some extent.

Your hopes and dreams, again. I bet you go to sleep at night wishing about Brussels punishing the UK and dream about the EU taking over at Westminster.

Yo Max is in the house!

But you’ve got it wrong. We don’t just want the EU to take over Westminster, we want new laws forcing British citizens to speak French or German on Monday, Wednesday and Saturdays.

Max please keep up.

That sounds a lot like Switzerland, out of the frying pan...

another_richard said:

rcs1000 said:

williamglenn said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Barnesian said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Barnesian said:

Brexit will not be derailed by any legal stuff. That's pie in the sky.

It could be derailed by a big switch in public opinion (which probably won't happen) that causes the PM and LOTO to reconsider their strategy.

It could also be derailed by May procrastinating to the very end because of the contradictions in her position and threats from her cabinet. The process might simply run out of road and adults take over at the last moment in a constitutional crisis that will test the Queen and the Speaker.

Interesting but who are your adults - genuine question

Grieve, Hammond(P), Umanna, Starmer, Cable, Blackford.

It would be a real crisis with the prospect of crashing out with no preparations and really dire consequences. It would be a national emergency - the scenario that keeps Grieve awake at night. There would be a vote of no confidence in the government with a temporary coalition of Remainer Tories, Labour, SNP and LIbDems to extend A50 and either agree a very soft Brexit and/or put options to a people's vote. The Queen would have to be assured that this grouping had the confidence of the House and the Speaker would have to facilitate it. It would be high drama.

Well they are all remainers and civil war would break out in politics. It needs someone who can command respect from both sides and at present I do not see anyone though that could change

It can only be Ken Clarke in that case. Watch how he has Farage eating out of his hand.

https://twitter.com/Haggis_UK/status/1010100142215761921

How pissed did Ken Clarke sound in that clip?

Didn't Ken Clarke say in his autobiography that he's consumed alcohol every day for over fifty years ?

That's impressive.

I liked the Alan Clark diary entry where Clarke was guest of honour at a constituency function, drank six pints in an hour, and was burping over the people he was talking to.

williamglenn said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

tyson said:

Barnesian said:

Pulpstar said:

Omnium said:

Stark_Dawning said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Stark_Dawning said:

As much as the Leavers would like some kind of legal challenge to derail Brexit this will not, and indeed should not, be allowed to happen. There must be no easy left off for those who orchestrated this mischief. We hear today that Farage is airily content to see British manufacturing put to the sword to facilitate his plans. I'd hate to see this happen myself, but 'the Will of the People' and all that. No, the Leavers have made their decision. Not seeing it through is the coward's way out.

Are you sure you mean leavers in your first sentence

Absolutely! They'd never admit it, but Leavers would secretly love Brexit to be cancelled, in a way in which they could still cry foul while breathing a silent sigh of relief.

I think I'd prefer to leave and then reapply. At least we have some semblance of a constitution if we do that. Something must be done, and be seen to have been done as a result of the referendum.

I think we're far enough along with the process that its just a matter of getting to actual Brexit. After that everything can be finessed at everyone's leisure. We could rejoin the most euro-hugger of things on a case-by-case basis. The default position is the only thing that's changed - our new default is don't join, whereas our old default was join, and in fact must join.

Leaving then rejoining would honour the referendum result whereas remaining would not. Like Ireland's abortion laws the consent would be with the British people

Leaving with an unprepared crashout might honour the referendum result but would be completely insane. It would be parliament's duty to prevent that.

Brexit has already happened......

Europhiles can live to fight another day, like they did in the 50's and 60's when they won the argument.....

Except of course rejoining the EU now woild be a very different proposal to what was being offered in the 50s and 60s. The idea any campaign to rejoin would be anything other than an abject failure is fanciful.

Yeah, just look at what it was like when we were desperate to join in the 1960s. “A single currency, no passports, and one general election from Sicily to the Orkney Islands...” Who’d vote for that?

https://youtu.be/Ga6-gcfZXzs

Keep dreaming William.

Nigel Farage is about to start a 5 day tour of Australia.

For just AUS $495 (£276) lucky Aussies can have 'a VIP ticket with backstage pass to an after-show champagne reception' with Farage. $295 gets a VIP ticket and one on one photo with Nigel.

Who said there were no winners from Brexit?

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/londoners-diary/comey-swayed-by-trump-sex-dossier-a3869581.html

anothernick said:

Foxy said:

Stark_Dawning said:

As much as the Leavers would like some kind of legal challenge to derail Brexit this will not, and indeed should not, be allowed to happen. There must be no easy left off for those who orchestrated this mischief. We hear today that Farage is airily content to see British manufacturing put to the sword to facilitate his plans. I'd hate to see this happen myself, but 'the Will of the People' and all that. No, the Leavers have made their decision. Not seeing it through is the coward's way out.

An interesting quote on the Will of the People, from the FT, any guesses as to the speaker? :

“The will of the People is the will of the Government and vice versa. The modern structure of the state is a higher form of democracy in which, by virtue of the people’s mandate, government is exercised authoritatively where there is no possibility of parliamentary interference, to obliterate and render ineffective the execution of the nation’s will. “

Josef Goebbels. The Nazis considered themselves to be the embodiment of the will of the people since they created their dictatorship and the position of fuhrer through the use of referenda. Their most famous propaganda film was called Triumph of the Will. And of course they arraigned their political opponents in show trials conducted in Peoples' Courts (a name also used for the courts which conducted Stalin's show trials).

Those who claim to be embodying the will of the people should be more aware of the uncomfortable history of this claim.

Correct.

williamglenn said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

tyson said:

Barnesian said:

Pulpstar said:

Omnium said:

Stark_Dawning said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Stark_Dawning said:

As much as the Leavers would like some kind of legal challenge to derail Brexit this will not, and indeed should not, be allowed to happen. There must be no easy left off for those who orchestrated this mischief. We hear today that Farage is airily content to see British manufacturing put to the sword to facilitate his plans. I'd hate to see this happen myself, but 'the Will of the People' and all that. No, the Leavers have made their decision. Not seeing it through is the coward's way out.

Are you sure you mean leavers in your first sentence

Absolutely! They'd never admit it, but Leavers would secretly love Brexit to be cancelled, in a way in which they could still cry foul while breathing a silent sigh of relief.

I think I'd prefer to leave and then reapply. At least we have some semblance of a constitution if we do that. Something must be done, and be seen to have been done as a result of the referendum.

I think we're far enough along with the process that its just a matter of getting to actual Brexit. After that everything can be finessed at everyone's leisure. We could rejoin the most euro-hugger of things on a case-by-case basis. The default position is the only thing that's changed - our new default is don't join, whereas our old default was join, and in fact must join.

Leaving then rejoining would honour the referendum result whereas remaining would not. Like Ireland's abortion laws the consent would be with the British people

Leaving with an unprepared crashout might honour the referendum result but would be completely insane. It would be parliament's duty to prevent that.

Brexit has already happened......

Europhiles can live to fight another day, like they did in the 50's and 60's when they won the argument.....

Except of course rejoining the EU now woild be a very different proposal to what was being offered in the 50s and 60s. The idea any campaign to rejoin would be anything other than an abject failure is fanciful.

Yeah, just look at what it was like when we were desperate to join in the 1960s. “A single currency, no passports, and one general election from Sicily to the Orkney Islands...” Who’d vote for that?

https://youtu.be/Ga6-gcfZXzs

De Gaulle of course made the right call and blocked our entry to the EEC, we should have listened to his advice and stayed in EFTA

Richard_Tyndall said:

williamglenn said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

tyson said:

Barnesian said:

Pulpstar said:

Omnium said:

Stark_Dawning said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Stark_Dawning said:

As much as the Leavers would like some kind of legal challenge to derail Brexit this will not, and indeed should not, be allowed to happen. There must be no easy left off for those who orchestrated this mischief. We hear today that Farage is airily content to see British manufacturing put to the sword to facilitate his plans. I'd hate to see this happen myself, but 'the Will of the People' and all that. No, the Leavers have made their decision. Not seeing it through is the coward's way out.

Are you sure you mean leavers in your first sentence

Absolutely! They'd never admit it, but Leavers would secretly love Brexit to be cancelled, in a way in which they could still cry foul while breathing a silent sigh of relief.

I think I'd prefer to leave and then reapply. At least we have some semblance of a constitution if we do that. Something must be done, and be seen to have been done as a result of the referendum.

I think we're far enough along with the process that its just a matter of getting to actual Brexit. After that everything can be finessed at everyone's leisure. We could rejoin the most euro-hugger of things on a case-by-case basis. The default position is the only thing that's changed - our new default is don't join, whereas our old default was join, and in fact must join.

Leaving then rejoining would honour the referendum result whereas remaining would not. Like Ireland's abortion laws the consent would be with the British people

Leaving with an unprepared crashout might honour the referendum result but would be completely insane. It would be parliament's duty to prevent that.

Brexit has already happened......

Europhiles can live to fight another day, like they did in the 50's and 60's when they won the argument.....

Except of course rejoining the EU now woild be a very different proposal to what was being offered in the 50s and 60s. The idea any campaign to rejoin would be anything other than an abject failure is fanciful.

Yeah, just look at what it was like when we were desperate to join in the 1960s. “A single currency, no passports, and one general election from Sicily to the Orkney Islands...” Who’d vote for that?

https://youtu.be/Ga6-gcfZXzs

Keep dreaming William.

The dream was about recreating a Christian Roman Empire. But, that was then.

ralphmalph said:

Explain why the effect on the UK car industry is much worse when the price of the exports will basically be the same. Tariffs offset by fall in pound when converted to Euros for EU customers?

Consider three scenarios: exports of cars to the EU, to Korea (or other country that the EU has an FTA with), to the US (or other country that the EU doesn't have an FTA with).

The exports of cars to the EU will be subject to a 10% tariff under No Deal. EU car suppliers will source within the EU. An agreed FTA would see that tariff eliminated although there will still be significant compliance charges unless we are in both the customs union and Single Market.

Exports of cars to Korea and other countries the EU has an FTA with will see a similar tariff. Even if we sign our own FTAs with those counties we will normally fail to meet the typical 60% local content threshold and so the tariff would still apply. Aston Martin cannot source a UK made engine, which of itself means a UK manufactured car will never meet the content thresholds. EU manufactured cars are OK.

Brexit makes no difference to cars exported to the US or other country the EU doesn't have an FTA with, but we are the same as the EU competition and no better off being out of the EU.

So Brexit will have a negative effect on the bulk of UK exports (a very big negative effect in the case of No Deal and a significant negative effect in the case of an EU FTA) while making no difference to the rest. The only possible upside is if the UK signs trade deals with third parties that the EU doesn't have. The most likely one is China. However, China's interest is in selling its cars to us.

Pulpstar said:

Switzerland probably through

Serbia had some pretty dodgy refereeing decisions against them.

anothernick said:

Foxy said:

Stark_Dawning said:

As much as the Leavers would like some kind of legal challenge to derail Brexit this will not, and indeed should not, be allowed to happen. There must be no easy left off for those who orchestrated this mischief. We hear today that Farage is airily content to see British manufacturing put to the sword to facilitate his plans. I'd hate to see this happen myself, but 'the Will of the People' and all that. No, the Leavers have made their decision. Not seeing it through is the coward's way out.

An interesting quote on the Will of the People, from the FT, any guesses as to the speaker? :

“The will of the People is the will of the Government and vice versa. The modern structure of the state is a higher form of democracy in which, by virtue of the people’s mandate, government is exercised authoritatively where there is no possibility of parliamentary interference, to obliterate and render ineffective the execution of the nation’s will. “

Josef Goebbels. The Nazis considered themselves to be the embodiment of the will of the people since they created their dictatorship and the position of fuhrer through the use of referenda. Their most famous propaganda film was called Triumph of the Will. And of course they arraigned their political opponents in show trials conducted in Peoples' Courts (a name also used for the courts which conducted Stalin's show trials).

Those who claim to be embodying the will of the people should be more aware of the uncomfortable history of this claim.

I feel no sympathy. I repeat, I feel no sympathy! The German people chose their fate. That may surprise some people. Don't fool yourself. We didn't force the German people. They gave us a mandate, and now their little throats are being cut!
- Goebbels in "Downfall" the movie.

kle4 said:

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/jrmaidment/status/1010195942543380480?s=21

I respect John Major, but since he obviously believes no time would be 'ok' for Brexit I am not sure that really says much.

For John Major, this is personal.

tlg86 said:

rcs1000 said:

Pulpstar said:

Switzerland probably through

Serbia had some pretty dodgy refereeing decisions against them.

Where are FIFA based?

I think that's probably a conspiracy theory too far...

rcs1000 said:

ralphmalph said:

FF43 said:

Casino_Royale said:

williamglenn said:

The German carmakers to the rescue.
https://twitter.com/BBCBusiness/status/1010202128734998529

Did you even read the post on the previous thread?

https://www2.deloitte.com/content/dam/Deloitte/de/Documents/Brexit/Brexit-Briefings_Pt5_Hard-Brexit-German-car-industry.pdf

The German carmarkers are in far deeper shit than we'd be (we'd actually be slightly better off) in the event of a no-deal Brexit.

These are political manoeveres. Plain and simple.

Brexit is indeed lose / lose. However that report only considers the UK import market in isolation from the export market. It claims, correctly IMO that the UK market would see a substitution of RoW cars for EU manufactured ones. It also claims there would be some substitution of UK manufactured cars for EU ones. The problem is that UK exports to the EU would be massively curtailed at the same time and it's unlikely the UK market would have the economy of scale to retain much indigenous manufacture for purely local consumption. Overall UK manufactured cars and components will certainly be reduced. Brexit will affect a much larger proportion of UK manufacture than of EU manufacture, which makes substitution more difficult.

Do you understand the report? The whole report says the costs of the cars increasing means a decrease in sales. The main drivers of the increase in cost is a 10% tariff and fall in the pound.
For UK manufacturers the pound fall negates the 10% tariff so the sales remain the same.

That would only be true if 100% of the content of the car was locally sourced. Given that we have no iron ore or copper and are a net importer of oil and energy, it is next to impossible that you could ever have a car with more than 75% UK content. Simlarly, capital expense in a car factory is almost entirely imported: assembly line automation from Honeywell, and robots from Kuka in Germany for example.

The labour content of a Nissan made in Sunderland is only about 3% of the sale price (for Nissan - obviously across the value chain it's higher). That's not a lot of the car that gets cheaper with a 10% devaluation.

That's not entirely true. The UK does still have iron, copper, coal and oil reserves, as well as extensive gas reverses.

It's just not economically viable, or in some cases politically acceptable, to extract them. But, in extremis, the option is there.

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/nicolasturgeon/status/1010176459401584648?s=21

Nice to see them meeting somewhere that has prospered outside the EU....

Pulpstar said:

By next world cup, each team will have a challenge available per match (Which is lost if unsuccessful and kept if successful) for VAR. Calling it now.

Like cricket and most other sports with video refs/umpires. Surprised its not part of the VAR trial already.

Casino_Royale said:

kle4 said:

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/jrmaidment/status/1010195942543380480?s=21

I respect John Major, but since he obviously believes no time would be 'ok' for Brexit I am not sure that really says much.

For John Major, this is personal.

John Major is certainly doing more to campaign against Brexit than Corbyn whether you agree with his views on it or not

FF43 said:

Casino_Royale said:

williamglenn said:

The German carmakers to the rescue.
https://twitter.com/BBCBusiness/status/1010202128734998529

Did you even read the post on the previous thread?

https://www2.deloitte.com/content/dam/Deloitte/de/Documents/Brexit/Brexit-Briefings_Pt5_Hard-Brexit-German-car-industry.pdf

The German carmarkers are in far deeper shit than we'd be (we'd actually be slightly better off) in the event of a no-deal Brexit.

These are political manoeveres. Plain and simple.

Brexit is indeed lose / lose. However that report only considers the UK import market in isolation from the export market. It claims, correctly IMO that the UK market would see a substitution of RoW cars for EU manufactured ones. It also claims there would be some substitution of UK manufactured cars for EU ones. The problem is that UK exports to the EU would be massively curtailed at the same time and it's unlikely the UK market would have the economy of scale to retain much indigenous manufacture for purely local consumption. Overall UK manufactured cars and components will certainly be reduced. Brexit will affect a much larger proportion of UK manufacture than of EU manufacture, which makes substitution more difficult.

The UK would certainly retain a level of indigenous car manufacture. Until very recently, even Australia had this and still has a design & manufacture capability.

In an extreme scenario, it would just be commensurate with domestic demand, with cars for export being confined to global luxury brands, such as Aston Martin, Bentley and Jaguars.

The fact we need cars to be manufactured to right-hand drive further mitigates this to some extent: why go to the effort of special production lines to produce those outside the UK for the UK marker + tariffs, when you could just manufacture them domestically within the UK without the hassle instead?

rcs1000 said:

Pulpstar said:

Switzerland probably through

Serbia had some pretty dodgy refereeing decisions against them.

Unless England wins, this World Cup will be remembered for the appalling refereeing.

DecrepitJohnL said:

rcs1000 said:

Pulpstar said:

Switzerland probably through

Serbia had some pretty dodgy refereeing decisions against them.

Unless England wins, this World Cup will be remembered for the appalling refereeing.

That seems a remarkably Anglo-centric view from you. Surely it would be bigger news if Iceland or the Cayman Islands won (especially the latter of course given the strange things that would need to happen first)?

DecrepitJohnL said:

rcs1000 said:

Pulpstar said:

Switzerland probably through

Serbia had some pretty dodgy refereeing decisions against them.

Unless England wins, this World Cup will be remembered for the appalling refereeing.

Just having watched the match on delay, I can see there was one clear Serbian penalty claim missed (c.f. the two England should have had against Harry Kane) but apart from that the refereeing seemed pretty even-handed to me. Switzerland deserved to win on balance - they showed more ambition in the second half.

williamglenn said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Casino_Royale said:

kle4 said:

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/jrmaidment/status/1010195942543380480?s=21

I respect John Major, but since he obviously believes no time would be 'ok' for Brexit I am not sure that really says much.

For John Major, this is personal.

Even though the EU made a complete fool of him and showed just how little power he really had. The man really is an idiot.

Do you feel a sense of vicarious humiliation whenever the British Prime Minister doesn’t have everything their own way?

I suppose you've never had to feel the same way about the EU, since they always get what they want (even if they have to ask multiple times).

This is rather sad news:

London Euston pub fire: Crews tackle blaze near station

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-44584622

It's a more significant pub than the BBC perhaps realise in historical terms. It was an early centre of the hippy movement and Phil Cohen (who under the name of Dr John Moffat led the squatting movement in London in the early 1960s) learned much of his radicalism there. Radical counterculture owed it a lot.

Richard_Tyndall said:

Casino_Royale said:

kle4 said:

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/jrmaidment/status/1010195942543380480?s=21

I respect John Major, but since he obviously believes no time would be 'ok' for Brexit I am not sure that really says much.

For John Major, this is personal.

Even though the EU made a complete fool of him and showed just how little power he really had. The man really is an idiot.

But this way he can remain in denial over that and blame it all on the 'bastards'.

williamglenn said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Casino_Royale said:

kle4 said:

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/jrmaidment/status/1010195942543380480?s=21

I respect John Major, but since he obviously believes no time would be 'ok' for Brexit I am not sure that really says much.

For John Major, this is personal.

Even though the EU made a complete fool of him and showed just how little power he really had. The man really is an idiot.

Do you feel a sense of vicarious humiliation whenever the British Prime Minister doesn’t have everything their own way?

I have no great interest in whether any particular politician is humiliated or not. I just find it amusing when they are so dumb as to try and ingratiate themselves with the very people who caused their humiliation. The EU made a complete fool of Major and now he is making a fool of himself.

The_Taxman said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Casino_Royale said:

kle4 said:

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/jrmaidment/status/1010195942543380480?s=21

I respect John Major, but since he obviously believes no time would be 'ok' for Brexit I am not sure that really says much.

For John Major, this is personal.

Even though the EU made a complete fool of him and showed just how little power he really had. The man really is an idiot.

Only in your twisted Eurosceptic mind did he not have victories!

For all the bile you forward toward him, did he not secure opt outs for various policies? They may have been opted back in by later governments but it is unbalanced to say he did not have victories. His government fell apart and I have long held the opinion he should have fallen on his sword in 1995 to mitigate the coming defeat at the next GE.

It is not historically accurate to portray the UKs European involvement as one way traffic or successive humiliations. The UK has opted out of many policy areas, I think we dodged a bullet in not signing up to the Euro! I think Brexit is a fundamental mistake given the weight of economic activity conducted with our nearest geographical neighbours.

Portillo or Redwood, Major's likeliest successors in 1995 as Tory leader, may well have suffered an even bigger defeat to Blair at the 1997 general election

The_Taxman said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Casino_Royale said:

kle4 said:

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/jrmaidment/status/1010195942543380480?s=21

I respect John Major, but since he obviously believes no time would be 'ok' for Brexit I am not sure that really says much.

For John Major, this is personal.

Even though the EU made a complete fool of him and showed just how little power he really had. The man really is an idiot.

Only in your twisted Eurosceptic mind did he not have victories!

For all the bile you forward toward him, did he not secure opt outs for various policies? They may have been opted back in by later governments but it is unbalanced to say he did not have victories. His government fell apart and I have long held the opinion he should have fallen on his sword in 1995 to mitigate the coming defeat at the next GE.

It is not historically accurate to portray the UKs European involvement as one way traffic or successive humiliations. The UK has opted out of many policy areas, I think we dodged a bullet in not signing up to the Euro! I think Brexit is a fundamental mistake given the weight of economic activity conducted with our nearest geographical neighbours.

Major had rings run round him by the EU. So much so he ended up writing to Jacques Santer after the event moaning about how the British interpretation of the Maastricht Treaty had been ignored and overruled. The guy was dumber than a bag of rocks.

Sunil_Prasannan said:

HYUFD said:

The_Taxman said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Casino_Royale said:

kle4 said:

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/jrmaidment/status/1010195942543380480?s=21

I respect John Major, but since he obviously believes no time would be 'ok' for Brexit I am not sure that really says much.

For John Major, this is personal.

Even though the EU made a complete fool of him and showed just how little power he really had. The man really is an idiot.

Only in your twisted Eurosceptic mind did he not have victories!

For all the bile you forward toward him, did he not secure opt outs for various policies? They may have been opted back in by later governments but it is unbalanced to say he did not have victories. His government fell apart and I have long held the opinion he should have fallen on his sword in 1995 to mitigate the coming defeat at the next GE.

It is not historically accurate to portray the UKs European involvement as one way traffic or successive humiliations. The UK has opted out of many policy areas, I think we dodged a bullet in not signing up to the Euro! I think Brexit is a fundamental mistake given the weight of economic activity conducted with our nearest geographical neighbours.

Portillo or Redwood, Major's likeliest successors in 1995 as Tory leader, may well have suffered an even bigger defeat to Blair at the 1997 general election

Michael Portillo has a famous motto:

Who Dares Wins!

WE dare!

WE will WIN!

Portillo lost Enfield Southgate in 1997 on a huge 17% swing to Twigg, that was even worse than the 10% swing that Major saw to Blair nationally.

Torby_Fennel said:

The_Taxman said:

Even though the EU made a complete fool of him and showed just how little power he really had. The man really is an idiot.

Only in your twisted Eurosceptic mind did he not have victories!

For all the bile you forward toward him, did he not secure opt outs for various policies? They may have been opted back in by later governments but it is unbalanced to say he did not have victories. His government fell apart and I have long held the opinion he should have fallen on his sword in 1995 to mitigate the coming defeat at the next GE.

It is not historically accurate to portray the UKs European involvement as one way traffic or successive humiliations. The UK has opted out of many policy areas, I think we dodged a bullet in not signing up to the Euro! I think Brexit is a fundamental mistake given the weight of economic activity conducted with our nearest geographical neighbours.

Although I'm now very firmly Liberal Democrat, I was an enthusiastic Conservative voter at the time of John Major - or, more accurately, I voted Conservative because I was very enthusiastic about John Major. I certainly think he's the best PM of my lifetime so far (which spans from May 1974).

Of all the general elections that I've voted in (1997-2017) only two of those votes have been cast with genuine enthusiasm and pride - My Liberal Democrat vote in 2017 and my Conservative vote in 1997.

The only bad thing I can possibly say about John Major is that his presence on the political stage in my formative years hid from me the fact that I'm a natural Lib Dem. He made me think that I was a Conservative and that false perception persisted right through until only a few years ago. That none of my Conservative votes post-Major were cast with any enthusiasm should have been a clue to me that I wasn't a Conservative though.

Major was willing to trash the UK economy to stay in the ERM.

The Bundesbank and George Soros came to the UK's rescue.

HYUFD said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

The_Taxman said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Casino_Royale said:

kle4 said:

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/jrmaidment/status/1010195942543380480?s=21

I respect John Major, but since he obviously believes no time would be 'ok' for Brexit I am not sure that really says much.

For John Major, this is personal.

Even though the EU made a complete fool of him and showed just how little power he really had. The man really is an idiot.

Only in your twisted Eurosceptic mind did he not have victories!

For all the bile you forward toward him, did he not secure opt outs for various policies? They may have been opted back in by later governments but it is unbalanced to say he did not have victories. His government fell apart and I have long held the opinion he should have fallen on his sword in 1995 to mitigate the coming defeat at the next GE.

It is not historically accurate to portray the UKs European involvement as one way traffic or successive humiliations. The UK has opted out of many policy areas, I think we dodged a bullet in not signing up to the Euro! I think Brexit is a fundamental mistake given the weight of economic activity conducted with our nearest geographical neighbours.

Major had rings run round him by the EU. So much so he ended up writing to Jacques Santer after the event moaning about how the British interpretation of the Maastricht Treaty had been ignored and overruled. The guy was dumber than a bag of rocks.

If you look at Major's record, a successful Gulf War, opt outs from the EU, the legacy of a growing economy and low unemployment and inflation and relatively balanced finances in 1997, I would say he is our 4th best postwar PM after Thatcher, Attlee and Macmillan especially when you consider the state he left the country in after he departed from office

That economy was despite Major's efforts not because of them.

When it comes down to it Major tried to have ERM membership with 15% interest rates rather than a floating currency with 6% interest rates.

another_richard said:

HYUFD said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

The_Taxman said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Casino_Royale said:

kle4 said:

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/jrmaidment/status/1010195942543380480?s=21

I respect John Major, but since he obviously believes no time would be 'ok' for Brexit I am not sure that really says much.

For John Major, this is personal.

Even though the EU made a complete fool of him and showed just how little power he really had. The man really is an idiot.

Only in your twisted Eurosceptic mind did he not have victories!

For all the bile you forward toward him, did he not secure opt outs for various policies? They may have been opted back in by later governments but it is unbalanced to say he did not have victories. His government fell apart and I have long held the opinion he should have fallen on his sword in 1995 to mitigate the coming defeat at the next GE.

It is not historically accurate to portray the UKs European involvement as one way traffic or successive humiliations. The UK has opted out of many policy areas, I think we dodged a bullet in not signing up to the Euro! I think Brexit is a fundamental mistake given the weight of economic activity conducted with our nearest geographical neighbours.

Major had rings run round him by the EU. So much so he ended up writing to Jacques Santer after the event moaning about how the British interpretation of the Maastricht Treaty had been ignored and overruled. The guy was dumber than a bag of rocks.

If you look at Major's record, a successful Gulf War, opt outs from the EU, the legacy of a growing economy and low unemployment and inflation and relatively balanced finances in 1997, I would say he is our 4th best postwar PM after Thatcher, Attlee and Macmillan especially when you consider the state he left the country in after he departed from office

That economy was despite Major's efforts not because of them.

When it comes down to it Major tried to have ERM membership with 15% interest rates rather than a floating currency with 6% interest rates.

The ERM was a mistake admittedly but he learnt from that and got the UK an opt out from the Euro

another_richard said:

Torby_Fennel said:

The_Taxman said:

Even though the EU made a complete fool of him and showed just how little power he really had. The man really is an idiot.

Only in your twisted Eurosceptic mind did he not have victories!

For all the bile you forward toward him, did he not secure opt outs for various policies? They may have been opted back in by later governments but it is unbalanced to say he did not have victories. His government fell apart and I have long held the opinion he should have fallen on his sword in 1995 to mitigate the coming defeat at the next GE.

It is not historically accurate to portray the UKs European involvement as one way traffic or successive humiliations. The UK has opted out of many policy areas, I think we dodged a bullet in not signing up to the Euro! I think Brexit is a fundamental mistake given the weight of economic activity conducted with our nearest geographical neighbours.

Although I'm now very firmly Liberal Democrat, I was an enthusiastic Conservative voter at the time of John Major - or, more accurately, I voted Conservative because I was very enthusiastic about John Major. I certainly think he's the best PM of my lifetime so far (which spans from May 1974).

Of all the general elections that I've voted in (1997-2017) only two of those votes have been cast with genuine enthusiasm and pride - My Liberal Democrat vote in 2017 and my Conservative vote in 1997.

The only bad thing I can possibly say about John Major is that his presence on the political stage in my formative years hid from me the fact that I'm a natural Lib Dem. He made me think that I was a Conservative and that false perception persisted right through until only a few years ago. That none of my Conservative votes post-Major were cast with any enthusiasm should have been a clue to me that I wasn't a Conservative though.

Major was willing to trash the UK economy to stay in the ERM.

The Bundesbank and George Soros came to the UK's rescue.

Ahistorical nonsense. Major left the ERM rather than put interest rates back up to the level of the late 80s.

HYUFD said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

The_Taxman said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Casino_Royale said:

kle4 said:

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/jrmaidment/status/1010195942543380480?s=21

I respect John Major, but since he obviously believes no time would be 'ok' for Brexit I am not sure that really says much.

For John Major, this is personal.

Even though the EU made a complete fool of him and showed just how little power he really had. The man really is an idiot.

Only in your twisted Eurosceptic mind did he not have victories!

For all the bile you forward toward him, did he not secure opt outs for various policies? They may have been opted back in by later governments but it is unbalanced to say he did not have victories. His government fell apart and I have long held the opinion he should have fallen on his sword in 1995 to mitigate the coming defeat at the next GE.

It is not historically accurate to portray the UKs European involvement as one way traffic or successive humiliations. The UK has opted out of many policy areas, I think we dodged a bullet in not signing up to the Euro! I think Brexit is a fundamental mistake given the weight of economic activity conducted with our nearest geographical neighbours.

Major had rings run round him by the EU. So much so he ended up writing to Jacques Santer after the event moaning about how the British interpretation of the Maastricht Treaty had been ignored and overruled. The guy was dumber than a bag of rocks.

If you look at Major's record, a successful and swiftly resolved and largely casualty free Gulf War, opt outs from the most federal aspects of the EU and the Euro while remaining within the EU, the legacy of a growing economy and low unemployment and inflation and few strikes and relatively balanced finances in 1997, I would say he is our 4th best postwar PM after Thatcher, Attlee and Macmillan especially when you consider the state he left the country in after he departed from office

Gentleman John also wanted us to be 'a nation at ease with ourselves'. What a contrast with politicians of today, who are only content when sowing the seeds of division and strife.

SandyRentool said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

HYUFD said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

The_Taxman said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Casino_Royale said:

kle4 said:

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/jrmaidment/status/1010195942543380480?s=21

I respect John Major, but since he obviously believes no time would be 'ok' for Brexit I am not sure that really says much.

For John Major, this is personal.

Even though the EU made a complete fool of him and showed just how little power he really had. The man really is an idiot.

Only in your twisted Eurosceptic mind did he not have victories!

For all the bile you forward toward him, did he not secure opt outs for various policies? They may have been opted back in by later governments but it is unbalanced to say he did not have victories. His government fell apart and I have long held the opinion he should have fallen on his sword in 1995 to mitigate the coming defeat at the next GE.

It is not historically accurate to portray the UKs European involvement as one way traffic or successive humiliations. The UK has opted out of many policy areas, I think we dodged a bullet in not signing up to the Euro! I think Brexit is a fundamental mistake given the weight of economic activity conducted with our nearest geographical neighbours.

Major had rings run round him by the EU. So much so he ended up writing to Jacques Santer after the event moaning about how the British interpretation of the Maastricht Treaty had been ignored and overruled. The guy was dumber than a bag of rocks.

If you look at Major's record, a successful and swiftly resolved and largely casualty free Gulf War, opt outs from the most federal aspects of the EU and the Euro while remaining within the EU, the legacy of a growing economy and low unemployment and inflation and few strikes and relatively balanced finances in 1997, I would say he is our 4th best postwar PM after Thatcher, Attlee and Macmillan especially when you consider the state he left the country in after he departed from office

As has already been mentioned he was so dumb he caused misery to millions through his desperate attempts to keep us in the ERM - and of course he was the fool who pushed for us to go into it in the first place. Combined with the social chapter fiasco he was completely out manoeuvred by the EU.

Plus he was the idiot who privatised the railways.

He was certainly an idiot in the way he did it.

williamglenn said:

another_richard said:

Torby_Fennel said:

The_Taxman said:

Even though the EU made a complete fool of him and showed just how little power he really had. The man really is an idiot.

Only in your twisted Eurosceptic mind did he not have victories!

For all the bile you forward toward him, did he not secure opt outs for various policies? They may have been opted back in by later governments but it is unbalanced to say he did not have victories. His government fell apart and I have long held the opinion he should have fallen on his sword in 1995 to mitigate the coming defeat at the next GE.

It is not historically accurate to portray the UKs European involvement as one way traffic or successive humiliations. The UK has opted out of many policy areas, I think we dodged a bullet in not signing up to the Euro! I think Brexit is a fundamental mistake given the weight of economic activity conducted with our nearest geographical neighbours.

Although I'm now very firmly Liberal Democrat, I was an enthusiastic Conservative voter at the time of John Major - or, more accurately, I voted Conservative because I was very enthusiastic about John Major. I certainly think he's the best PM of my lifetime so far (which spans from May 1974).

Of all the general elections that I've voted in (1997-2017) only two of those votes have been cast with genuine enthusiasm and pride - My Liberal Democrat vote in 2017 and my Conservative vote in 1997.

The only bad thing I can possibly say about John Major is that his presence on the political stage in my formative years hid from me the fact that I'm a natural Lib Dem. He made me think that I was a Conservative and that false perception persisted right through until only a few years ago. That none of my Conservative votes post-Major were cast with any enthusiasm should have been a clue to me that I wasn't a Conservative though.

Major was willing to trash the UK economy to stay in the ERM.

The Bundesbank and George Soros came to the UK's rescue.

Ahistorical nonsense. Major left the ERM rather than put interest rates back up to the level of the late 80s.

Stop rewriting history. He was forced out because it was impossible to defend sterling whilst we were trapped in the ERM. And since he was the idiot who took us in in the first place he deserves no credit at all.

HYUFD said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

The_Taxman said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Casino_Royale said:

kle4 said:

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/jrmaidment/status/1010195942543380480?s=21

I respect John Major, but since he obviously believes no time would be 'ok' for Brexit I am not sure that really says much.

For John Major, this is personal.

Even though the EU made a complete fool of him and showed just how little power he really had. The man really is an idiot.

Only in your twisted Eurosceptic mind did he not have victories!

For all the bile you forward toward him, did he not secure opt outs for various policies? They may have been opted back in by later governments but it is unbalanced to say he did not have victories. His government fell apart and I have long held the opinion he should have fallen on his sword in 1995 to mitigate the coming defeat at the next GE.

It is not historically accurate to portray the UKs European involvement as one way traffic or successive humiliations. The UK has opted out of many policy areas, I think we dodged a bullet in not signing up to the Euro! I think Brexit is a fundamental mistake given the weight of economic activity conducted with our nearest geographical neighbours.

Major had rings run round him by the EU. So much so he ended up writing to Jacques Santer after the event moaning about how the British interpretation of the Maastricht Treaty had been ignored and overruled. The guy was dumber than a bag of rocks.

If you look at Major's record, a successful and swiftly resolved and largely casualty free Gulf War,

Um, except for the Iraqi "collateral damage"?

Sunil_Prasannan said:

HYUFD said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

The_Taxman said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Casino_Royale said:

kle4 said:

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/jrmaidment/status/1010195942543380480?s=21

I respect John Major, but since he obviously believes no time would be 'ok' for Brexit I am not sure that really says much.

For John Major, this is personal.

Even though the EU made a complete fool of him and showed just how little power he really had. The man really is an idiot.

Only in your twisted Eurosceptic mind did he not have victories!

For all the bile you forward toward him, did he not secure opt outs for various policies? They may have been opted back in by later governments but it is unbalanced to say he did not have victories. His government fell apart and I have long held the opinion he should have fallen on his sword in 1995 to mitigate the coming defeat at the next GE.

It is not historically accurate to portray the UKs European involvement as one way traffic or successive humiliations. The UK has opted out of many policy areas, I think we dodged a bullet in not signing up to the Euro! I think Brexit is a fundamental mistake given the weight of economic activity conducted with our nearest geographical neighbours.

Major had rings run round him by the EU. So much so he ended up writing to Jacques Santer after the event moaning about how the British interpretation of the Maastricht Treaty had been ignored and overruled. The guy was dumber than a bag of rocks.

If you look at Major's record, a successful and swiftly resolved and largely casualty free Gulf War,

Um, except for the Iraqi "collateral damage"?

They were the enemy