politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » What would Labour really do about Brexit?
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » What would Labour really do about Brexit?
A few things are obvious to all but the most partisan:
0
This discussion has been closed.
Comments
Once you've got that far presumably London wants the same... The ultimate destination is BINO, but without voting rights, and you'll need a visa to work in Clacton.
Whilst very tempting to ignore Ulster and let a united Ireland happen, a civil war in Ireland would not be acceptable. The Ulster Unionists would not accept a vote for a united Ireland.
2) Anyone who hadn’t worked out at the time of the referendum that the Kremlin was pushing hard for Brexit was either not paying attention or wilfully turning a blind eye. (It was the catalyst for the coining of “vapid bilge”.). Most Leavers on this site were doing the latter and are still rather evasive about the downsides of pleasing Vladimir Putin.
3) Isabel Oakeshott has apparently had this information for some time. If it is evidence of treason (a word I would much prefer to avoid being used without the most compelling evidence) then she doesn’t seem to have been all that bothered by it. She has only released her statement now by force of events.
4) I await with interest Lord Ashcroft’s comments on this, given he is apparently involved with this book and he seems to be well in with the Leave.EU gang. Silence will also be interesting.
That said I would contend that Labour only requires the appearance of a coherent position as the government is in utter disarray on the issue. The Conservatives limp from one fiasco to the next leaving in their wake confusion, disunity and the voters left in bemusement as to where the nation is going.
The old adage of not interrupting your enemies as they engage in self destruction is clearly apposite. BREXIT has given the Tory government a severe case of the shits and they are now serial political public poopers. What a mess !!
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-44395861
Peter Hitchens stated today (in his MoS blog): "The EU is not Europe, but the continuation of Germany by other means. It is a rather brutal and arrogant mechanism, not necessarily bringing prosperity, as Greece has discovered in detail. Its expansionism has brought war to Yugoslavia and Ukraine, and may yet cause more violence."
So the EU will allow the UK to change the FOM rules? Thus opening the floodgates for the other countries to change too. That is one of their red lines, surely?
Do you really believe that?
F1: will set about writing the pre-race nonsense imminently. Need to check the penalty situation, which could have a few given what happened in Q2 with blocking.
On-topic: seems a plausible description of what Corbyn might do, given it involves capitulating to the EU on Northern Ireland and the contemptible decision to remain in the customs union. My main problem with it is that May might do the same.
The overall deal here is that you've lost the ability to vote on the regulations that you have to follow, which will now be decided by foreign countries in their interests and often deliberately at your expense, in exchange for the ability to repatriate some car wash employees, many of whom you could have repatriated anyway. I doubt that the rest will be wanting one too, just don't shout and wave it about.
"He’s talking about being outside of the single market, so that isn’t an issue."
Is he? I think you're talking about GB not the UK to start with, and if that was the case, we can trade with other countries on our own terms?
In the wake of Black Wednesday the tories shed 10 - 15pts over the next few months, here nothing is happening. Perhaps the wider public aren't tuned in or even all that bothered.
That explains it.
It's not car wash employees who worried the voters of Boston, and I doubt they were much of a factor elsewhere.
A few snippets from the BBC website just before the referendum … certainly not a pro-Brexit source.
"Boston is one of the most extreme examples in Britain of a town affected by recent EU immigration. … You can see that in the local pay statistics. Boston has always been a low-pay town. But it is now an exceptionally low-paid place. The average hourly wage nationally is £13.33. Across the East Midlands, it is £12.26. In Boston, it is £9.13. On a weekly basis, full-time earnings are more than £100 a week less than the national average.
… So 10 single workers may each pay £60 a week to share what was a three-bedroom house, netting the landlords £600 a week. That means a gross rental income from the house of perhaps £30,000 a year. That is much more than local families can afford for those houses - and the housing supply has simply not kept up with demand. Local rents in Boston are actually much higher than in Nottingham despite wages being lower. This is a major problem within the town and has become a major cause of frustration. People living next door to these multiple-occupied homes are also not happy.
… According to the Annual Population Survey, more than half of the Polish-born adults living in Britain are aged 25-35. And concentrations of young people create their own issues - especially on a Friday night. While young adults tend not to use the NHS much, they do have children. Around 11% of children born in the UK in 2014 had one parent who was an EU migrant. Around half of those had two EU migrant parents. In Boston, the authorities have responded to a sudden rise in demand for children's services - from keeping maternity wards open through to funding more school places. (They were caught unprepared? Like the Spanish Inquisition, no one in Government expected them?)
Adrian Reed, head of a local school chain, says his schools get £1,000 per head from the public purse for new arrivals with language problems. He said: "In our trust, we have built a team of 10 people with a variety of languages - Polish, Portuguese, etc. They will be in the classroom supporting children... More importantly they support parents." (the article is mostly optimistic, concentrating on the attempts to help, rather than the chaos the Bostonians claim to see. Bless the BBC's cotton socks. But the classrooms remain the same size and no new schools were built)
The article ends by saying that "Boston has been transformed by the expansion of the European Union to the east."
No mention of a few car washers!
Black Wednesday came after a period of eye watering interest rates - which caused widespread and significant pain - and demonstrated that they had been completely unnecessary.
The public seem more volatile than a few decades ago, but also more blasé in some regards.
At least if events are hairy, our leaders aren't.
http://ukandeu.ac.uk/facts-behind-the-claims-uk-influence-in-the-eu/
The main parties swap marginal poll leads from time to time and the awful revolving door of directionless mediocrity circles the voters hoping to grab an advantage that might translate into something more than a tangential puff of approval.
In practice, I think the final outcome described is where we will wind up with the Tories too. The biggest difference under a Labour negotiation would be that we would get there in a fairly constructive way. Under the Tories it would be one long tantrum by the Europhobes, then signing on the dotted line.
What about the Financial Services Passport, which benefited small British firms - including my former fund management firm - above big continental banks?
Now, it might be that we "lost" far more often than we "won", but the single market for financial services was hugely beneficial for smaller UK financial services firms.
The term also didn't work very well for Cameron. Not unlike Clinton's 'basket of deplorables'.
In happier news, I have a bet. F1 ramble should be up fairly soon.
Betting PostF1: backed Ricciardo at 5 (5.25) for a podium.
He only qualified 6th. However, he's had a record of poor qualifying at Canada. The Red Bull also had a significant third sector qualifying deficit due to engine power, but the other teams can't run in the fastest mode throughout the race, so race pace will be closer. The team also starts on the hypersoft, the softest/fastest tyre, which Ferrari/Mercedes can't do because they run through the rubber too quickly.
http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.com/2018/06/canada-pre-race-2018.html
Big banks had subsidiaries in many countries
We had only a UK operatiom
The passport enabled us to sell fund management products to consumers in France, Germany and Italy without having a local (regulated) subsidiary in those countries.
There are few EU regulations that were unambiguously good for smaller UK firms. The Single European Financial Services Passport was one.
Edited extra bit: bah. Perhaps I'm being over-sensitive/grumpy. People can say what they like. But it's still a dumb expression.
People aren't being hurt by the government, and lots of people fear Corbyn.
Also, I did specify hardcore Remainers. Whilst a noisy bunch, with an unfortunately large presence in the political/media class, I firmly believe the vast majority of those who voted Remain are rather more reasonable, and less prone to inventing fantasies and attributing said fictions to their opponents.
I wonder if in 50 or 100 years time, people will look for the tipping point for an alternative history. In retrospect the 2011 Scottish parliament election set all this in progress. The SNP majority there paved the way for the the indy referendum, it's defeat and the SNP surge afterwards contributed strongly to Ed Millibands defeat in 2015, leading straight to Brexit and to whatever follows.
Fascinating stuff, lots of what might have beens..
On the substance itself, I'm not an isolationist. The EU is a problem, not a solution. It necessarily denudes nation-states of authority, because aggregating centralised power is the inevitable consequence of removing national vetoes (itself necessary for smooth functioning with such a surplus of member states), and that removes democratic accountability and responsibility.
The absence of an EU demos means this cannot be corrected, and the diametrically opposing imperatives of enhanced integration to try and make the single currency functional, and national democratic accountability means the EU is, I fear, destined to rip itself apart when the electorates of member states and bureaucracy of the EU come into increasing conflict.
At that stage, the greater the integration, the greater the pain of disentangling the half-dead nation-states from the dead octopus' tentacles. Civil disturbance is near certain, a small war is far from impossible.
Small war.
Dead octopus.
Project fear?
Let's not get carried away with the thought that everyone around Boston would be earning shedloads more if it weren't for the immigration - unskilled manual labour on the land is always likely to command only very low pay.
If you want a debate, I'm happy to debate. If you want to cherrypick individual phrases and pretend the reasoning behind conclusions don't exist, what's the point?
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5823349/Grenfell-fire-crews-wrote-names-helmets-rushing-inferno.html
Apologies if this was posted before but I did not see it -- just the O'Hagan LRB and Sunday Times attacks.
Under those same rules, fire crew should not have even gone into Grenfell Tower because, according to a risk assessment carried out after the blaze started that night, it was in danger of collapsing.
Firefighters were officially informed of this by Dany Cotton, the female commissioner of the London Fire Brigade, who addressed staff at the scene, in North Kensington, London, at the height of the unfolding tragedy.
‘Go in and get people out,’ she told them. ‘Forget protocol. Forget the rulebook.’ But, crucially, she also admitted that she couldn’t order them to go into the building — it was up to each individual fireman to make his own decision in those circumstances.
All of the firefighters gathered around her — that’s more than 200 men and women — went in.
Which possible one is Nick thinking of?
https://twitter.com/propertyspot/status/1005572598644781057?s=21
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5825639/Corbyns-festival-hit-sour-note-headline-bands-foul-rant-against-Royals-exposed.html
No 1 in their manifesto WE WILL HOLD ANOTHER REFERENDUM.
They can then do some market research into Leavers concerns -probably 95% immigration- and the answers to these can be 2-9 in their manifesto.
May's administration is falling apart and thanks to Trump and the catastrophic negotiations so is the hunger for Brexit
We assume she was lying on both occasions.
Morris Dancer is 100% consistent
Mr. Walker, if I believe the EU is going to fail and the deeper the integration the worse the consequences, if the edifice is shake and will collapse then leaving sooner rather than later is entirely sensible. I doubt anyone would seriously argue the EU is not integrating ever more, so the question becomes whether or not people believe that will make the EU unsustainable. It might not. But the absence of democracy and accountability across much of Europe would itself not be a good thing.
Mr. 43, yeah, if jobs depart in large numbers that could be seen as indicative, but if it's only a trickle that can't necessarily be attributed to the single market as other factors play a role. (How splendid to make a sensible point to a sensible post, and then have a sensible reply back. Gosh).
They'm all like sheep.
Edit - obviously I'm referring to their determination to follow the whip at all times...
...that doesn't come across much better...
Thomas
Yes, see also offence being taken at the phrases Gammon and Little Englander, while being happy to use terms such as Waycist, Frogs and Remoaners.
And they really dislike the Tube scene in His Darkest Hour.
If Aaron Banks is an agent of influence, why aren’t the police involved?
If he is not, why has he continually lied to Carole Cadwalladr?
Why did Oakeshott have his emails in her attic?
Why did she decide to revisit them when writing a book “about the armed forces”.
Where is Lord Ashcroft in all of this?
Who released the emails to the Sunday Times?
Etc
Mocking the French is an ancient English pastime, and I'm quite happy for them to call us rosbifs. It also has nothing to do with the EU referendum or Leave/Remain. The only people offended by it are rather over-sensitive.
As @Another_Richard has pointed out, agricultural output has flat lined whilst the numbers employed in the sector has gone up. The cost is being born by the people whilst the businesses take all the benefit.
Edited extra bit: I'm quite aggravated and that's no mood for discussion, so I'll be off. If others missed it, I've posted the pre-race ramble. Backed Ricciardo at 5 (5.25 with boost) for a podium.
And with that I have a mighty eight foot horn that needs inflating. And I also have to play some music.
Have a good morning.
Even on immigration the solution Nick Palmer outlines is arguably a loss of control compared to Remain; On the one hand a lot of the kind of measures it would include would have workarounds - for example, you might require having a job offer in advance, and the market would respond to this by creating a layer of intermediate companies that gave people in Poland job offers then contracted them out to farms in Boston. On the other, Britain would lost influence on other things that affected who came; Not least it would have given up its veto on who was actually in the EU, so to take an example that came up in the campaign, if by some miracle Turkey got itself back onto the EU accession track, the UK would no longer have a veto on letting them in, but once admitted Turks would have the (admittedly more limited) rights to move to Britain that Corbyn had negotiated. And immigration is the part that it's optimizing for - everything else is worse.
Basically this whole thing is an incredibly unattractive proposition for both Leavers and Remainers alike. The only reason it would fly in Britain in the scenario described would because the outgoing government had lowered expectations so much, and nobody anywhere else in the EU would be in a hurry to imitate it.