politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A handbag is needed to break Brexit’s dialogue of the deaf
Comments
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According to a poll sample...Barnesian said:Only 38% of the 52% who voted Leave think it is very important that we actually leave the EU. A further 38% think it is "quite" important. That's 19% who think it is very important that we leave the EU.
http://www.deltapoll.co.uk/brexit-labour-leavers
So to satisfy this 19% who think it is very important we leave the EU (and some of these would be happy to stay in the CU and/or SM outside the EU) DH is proposing crashing the UK economy. It's a view I suppose.0 -
Unacceptable to who? You presumably, and a small minority of hard Brexiteers. Tough.Mortimer said:
That would be an unacceptable end state.YellowSubmarine said:Arlene Foster's intervention this week was unusually clear for a politician. The DUP Red line is NI divergence from rUK not the UK as a whole staying in the CU and/or SM. The question she was answering was in the context of the C + S agreement with the Tories. eg what she'd walk over.
On the one hand that helps May. There appears to be a majority for the CU in the Commons without the DUP. If they aren't prepared to die in a ditch for it it's game over.
The problem is the EU insist the backstop must be NI specifc.
The obvious way to square that circle is to make CU + SM End State not a backstop. Now we are nowhere near that with the SM but *a* CU is as we know now Labour policy as well as supported by some Tory rebels. If the DUP looking at some of these unification polls decide the CU is a UK wide solution to the Irish Border then we coukd well get it.
I’m confident that the EU’s intransigence at the sensible proposal sent to them this week will solidify the Tory party. The amendments sent back from the Lords will be defeated; it’s about numbers, and the remainers don’t have ‘em...0 -
The original question was about 'how would you vote in a border poll today', which Fenton has reinvented into 'do you support a united Ireland'.HYUFD said:
Last time I checked 49% was not a majority and of course that is only under 45s, a clear majority of older voters in NI want to stay in the UK and not to mention voters get more conservative and supportive of the status quo as they get older.williamglenn said:
Goodbye UK.rcs1000 said:So: announce plans to hire 10,000 new customs staff, compulsory purchase some land at Dover and along key roads in Northern Ireland, separate Customs & Excise from HMRC and give it a heavyweight head, and announce plans to - as much as possible - replicate the system used on the Swiss or Norwegian border.
https://twitter.com/SiobhanFenton/status/1004998281842298880
Plus by the time they become the majority we will probably be back in the single market and customs union anyway given under 45s in the UK support that position
Full data here, afaics not linked from the BBC News Article: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/bsp/hi/pdfs/080618_bbcfullreport.pdf0 -
Very good thread header David.
Sadly I'm not sure Theresa has it in her to give anyone a "hand-bagging".0 -
Unacceptable to the referendum result. Leaving the EU wasn’t short hand for ‘but letting them dictate trade policy and British regulations for time immemorial’Barnesian said:
Unacceptable to who? You presumably, and a small minority of hard Brexiteers. Tough.Mortimer said:
That would be an unacceptable end state.YellowSubmarine said:Arlene Foster's intervention this week was unusually clear for a politician. The DUP Red line is NI divergence from rUK not the UK as a whole staying in the CU and/or SM. The question she was answering was in the context of the C + S agreement with the Tories. eg what she'd walk over.
On the one hand that helps May. There appears to be a majority for the CU in the Commons without the DUP. If they aren't prepared to die in a ditch for it it's game over.
The problem is the EU insist the backstop must be NI specifc.
The obvious way to square that circle is to make CU + SM End State not a backstop. Now we are nowhere near that with the SM but *a* CU is as we know now Labour policy as well as supported by some Tory rebels. If the DUP looking at some of these unification polls decide the CU is a UK wide solution to the Irish Border then we coukd well get it.
I’m confident that the EU’s intransigence at the sensible proposal sent to them this week will solidify the Tory party. The amendments sent back from the Lords will be defeated; it’s about numbers, and the remainers don’t have ‘em...0 -
Remainers think they’re riding high again, it seems. Remember the golden rule. This will come back to hurt their cause.0
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Not necessarily IF the EU is willing to come up with some new way to make it happen (as you say) .Richard_Tyndall said:
That is not possible. Unless the EU is willing to come up with some new way to make it happen, SM membership is only possible via EFTA membership and that precludes CU membership. It is either/or not both.YellowSubmarine said:Arlene Foster's intervention this week was unusually clear for a politician. The DUP Red line is NI divergence from rUK not the UK as a whole staying in the CU and/or SM. The question she was answering was in the context of the C + S agreement with the Tories. eg what she'd walk over.
On the one hand that helps May. There appears to be a majority for the CU in the Commons without the DUP. If they aren't prepared to die in a ditch for it it's game over.
The problem is the EU insist the backstop must be NI specifc.
The obvious way to square that circle is to make CU + SM End State not a backstop. Now we are nowhere near that with the SM but *a* CU is as we know now Labour policy as well as supported by some Tory rebels. If the DUP looking at some of these unification polls decide the CU is a UK wide solution to the Irish Border then we coukd well get it.
SM would be possible via an EFTA type membership (UKFTA not "EFTA") modified to include a CU. It would be bespoke to the UK.0 -
Trouble was it wasn’t short hand for anything. Everything is open to interpretation. That’s the problem.Mortimer said:
Unacceptable to the referendum result. Leaving the EU wasn’t short hand for ‘but letting them dictate trade policy and British regulations for time immemorial’Barnesian said:
Unacceptable to who? You presumably, and a small minority of hard Brexiteers. Tough.Mortimer said:
That would be an unacceptable end state.YellowSubmarine said:Arlene Foster's intervention this week was unusually clear for a politician. The DUP Red line is NI divergence from rUK not the UK as a whole staying in the CU and/or SM. The question she was answering was in the context of the C + S agreement with the Tories. eg what she'd walk over.
On the one hand that helps May. There appears to be a majority for the CU in the Commons without the DUP. If they aren't prepared to die in a ditch for it it's game over.
The problem is the EU insist the backstop must be NI specifc.
The obvious way to square that circle is to make CU + SM End State not a backstop. Now we are nowhere near that with the SM but *a* CU is as we know now Labour policy as well as supported by some Tory rebels. If the DUP looking at some of these unification polls decide the CU is a UK wide solution to the Irish Border then we coukd well get it.
I’m confident that the EU’s intransigence at the sensible proposal sent to them this week will solidify the Tory party. The amendments sent back from the Lords will be defeated; it’s about numbers, and the remainers don’t have ‘em...0 -
A representative sample of a decent size. But if you want to be 100% sure, let's ask everyone in a referendum.Mortimer said:
According to a poll sample...Barnesian said:Only 38% of the 52% who voted Leave think it is very important that we actually leave the EU. A further 38% think it is "quite" important. That's 19% who think it is very important that we leave the EU.
http://www.deltapoll.co.uk/brexit-labour-leavers
So to satisfy this 19% who think it is very important we leave the EU (and some of these would be happy to stay in the CU and/or SM outside the EU) DH is proposing crashing the UK economy. It's a view I suppose.0 -
But of course as we are now told, that doesn't mean we can be sure - the losing side will say people did not understand the implications, even for a set of options with less ambiguity than Brexit.Barnesian said:
A representative sample of a decent size. But if you want to be 100% sure, let's ask everyone in a referendum.Mortimer said:
According to a poll sample...Barnesian said:Only 38% of the 52% who voted Leave think it is very important that we actually leave the EU. A further 38% think it is "quite" important. That's 19% who think it is very important that we leave the EU.
http://www.deltapoll.co.uk/brexit-labour-leavers
So to satisfy this 19% who think it is very important we leave the EU (and some of these would be happy to stay in the CU and/or SM outside the EU) DH is proposing crashing the UK economy. It's a view I suppose.0 -
"Unacceptable to the referendum result" doesn't make sense. The result isn't a person. The question is "it is unacceptable to the people who voted in the referendum?". It is unacceptable to only 19% of them at most.Mortimer said:
Unacceptable to the referendum result. Leaving the EU wasn’t short hand for ‘but letting them dictate trade policy and British regulations for time immemorial’Barnesian said:
Unacceptable to who? You presumably, and a small minority of hard Brexiteers. Tough.Mortimer said:
That would be an unacceptable end state.YellowSubmarine said:Arlene Foster's intervention this week was unusually clear for a politician. The DUP Red line is NI divergence from rUK not the UK as a whole staying in the CU and/or SM. The question she was answering was in the context of the C + S agreement with the Tories. eg what she'd walk over.
On the one hand that helps May. There appears to be a majority for the CU in the Commons without the DUP. If they aren't prepared to die in a ditch for it it's game over.
The problem is the EU insist the backstop must be NI specifc.
The obvious way to square that circle is to make CU + SM End State not a backstop. Now we are nowhere near that with the SM but *a* CU is as we know now Labour policy as well as supported by some Tory rebels. If the DUP looking at some of these unification polls decide the CU is a UK wide solution to the Irish Border then we coukd well get it.
I’m confident that the EU’s intransigence at the sensible proposal sent to them this week will solidify the Tory party. The amendments sent back from the Lords will be defeated; it’s about numbers, and the remainers don’t have ‘em...0 -
After we’be inplemented the result of the last referendum, I’d be happy to have a rejoin referendumBarnesian said:
A representative sample of a decent size. But if you want to be 100% sure, let's ask everyone in a referendum.Mortimer said:
According to a poll sample...Barnesian said:Only 38% of the 52% who voted Leave think it is very important that we actually leave the EU. A further 38% think it is "quite" important. That's 19% who think it is very important that we leave the EU.
http://www.deltapoll.co.uk/brexit-labour-leavers
So to satisfy this 19% who think it is very important we leave the EU (and some of these would be happy to stay in the CU and/or SM outside the EU) DH is proposing crashing the UK economy. It's a view I suppose.0 -
The government has already accepted one of the Lords amendments and is tabling half way house amendments of it's own in lieu of some others. Maybe that will satisfy both the Commons and the Lords.But one or two more rounds of Ping Pong on a smaller number of amendments would hardly be unprecidented. Even Gove himself leaked his letter complaining the government *hadn't* accepted an amendment in his area leadng to unnecessery defeat.
I'd be astonished if May tried to bring Her Majesty into it with a flooding of peers given the 1910 precident suggests a GE first and it was losing a ' mandate ' GE that caused this situation in the first place.
Remember as well it was May who weakened her re the Lords by going for a two year session preventing the use of the Parliament Act. Unless they went down the prorogation route which as the recent Canadian example shows might drag the Queen into it if Labour didn't play ball.0 -
I don't think I'm riding high. I just think the Brexit ship is sinking fast. Unfortunately the whole country including myself will go down with it.Mortimer said:Remainers think they’re riding high again, it seems. Remember the golden rule. This will come back to hurt their cause.
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That'll do very nicely.philiph said:
A better and more honest statement would be as highlighted above.MikeSmithson said:What we actually need is for the referendum results to be declared invalid because of cheating by both sides on expenses and untruthful statements made during the campaign
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This 'we should have prepared for, and declared our willingness to embrace, cliff-drop Brexit' notion that has emerged recently is complete bunk. Not a single Leaver during the campaign said that Brexit would involve shredding our every link with the EU; indeed they invented a phrase for the claim by Remainers who said it might: Project Fear. So the Leavers had no choice but to maintain the cake-and-eat-it pretence until the very last. Otherwise the plebeian Leavers would have rioted, furious with their masters, who duped them into voting for their own destruction.0
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My Tory membership is about to expire, definitely close to calling up and cancelling after the shambles that Theresa May has presided over. She's killing out party and our chances for keeping Corbyn out of No 10.0
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It’s a shame you seem more concerned with pedantry than more important matters like, you know, implementing the choice of the electorate to leave the EU.Barnesian said:
"Unacceptable to the referendum result" doesn't make sense. The result isn't a person. The question is "it is unacceptable to the people who voted in the referendum?". It is unacceptable to only 19% of them at most.Mortimer said:
Unacceptable to the referendum result. Leaving the EU wasn’t short hand for ‘but letting them dictate trade policy and British regulations for time immemorial’Barnesian said:
Unacceptable to who? You presumably, and a small minority of hard Brexiteers. Tough.Mortimer said:
That would be an unacceptable end state.YellowSubmarine said:Arlene Foster's intervention this week was unusually clear for a politician. The DUP Red line is NI divergence from rUK not the UK as a whole staying in the CU and/or SM. The question she was answering was in the context of the C + S agreement with the Tories. eg what she'd walk over.
On the one hand that helps May. There appears to be a majority for the CU in the Commons without the DUP. If they aren't prepared to die in a ditch for it it's game over.
The problem is the EU insist the backstop must be NI specifc.
The obvious way to square that circle is to make CU + SM End State not a backstop. Now we are nowhere near that with the SM but *a* CU is as we know now Labour policy as well as supported by some Tory rebels. If the DUP looking at some of these unification polls decide the CU is a UK wide solution to the Irish Border then we coukd well get it.
I’m confident that the EU’s intransigence at the sensible proposal sent to them this week will solidify the Tory party. The amendments sent back from the Lords will be defeated; it’s about numbers, and the remainers don’t have ‘em...
But we’ve had this discussion before. You think you know better than the electorate, right?0 -
Brexit is doing that. Mrs May is a symptom not a cause.MaxPB said:My Tory membership is about to expire, definitely close to calling up and cancelling after the shambles that Theresa May has presided over. She's killing out party and our chances for keeping Corbyn out of No 10.
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Mr. Max, up to you, but there may be a relative soon leadership contest and I believe X months membership is required to have a vote.
May's definitely a wretched leader, though. Damned shame the apparent alternative is a self-declared friend of Hamas.0 -
My second end of the world alert in the past few days.
The afternoon thread is a piece by me praising Mrs May, after a fashion.0 -
Although frustrated by Corbyn's ambivalence on Brexit it is difficult to argue that it is not the wisest strategy right now. There is no election pending, there is no requirement for Labour to be clear about what it would do, it's irrelevant, they aren't in a position to do anything.Cyclefree said:
Yes, I’m surprised too. After all John Smith’s Labour was very effective at harrying the Tories over Maastricht.kle4 said:
Why are Labour unable to say anything very interesting about it?NickPalmer said:
The Labour problem is at present not so much Corbyn (nothing much has changed lately in views on him one way or the other) as that the issue of the day is Brexit, and we are unable say anything very interesting about it,.MarqueeMark said:
Even the Labour Party is going to work out that Corbyn is sending them down to yet another defeat. I said at the start of this year that it would get interesting if the Tories were on 43%, Labour 35%. Well......Dura_Ace said:
Every tory should go down on their arthritic knees and make an offering to Cthulhu, the tutelary deity of the Conservative and Unionist Party, for the continuing good health of J. Corbyn.MarqueeMark said:Tories with a 7 point lead over Labour perhaps says as much about the shambles that Corbyn Labour is on the EU as the Govt.'s shambles.....
I would certainly agree a 7 point lead for the Tories must surely be an outlier, but I am confused why Brexit is a problem on which Labour are unable to say anything interesting - with the shambolic path of the government it should be very easy in fact, and from the PMQ summaries Corbyn even manages to exploit that quite effectively.
If Corbyn were to win a GE this year what would Labour do over Brexit? What would they ask for? What deal would they want? What would be their red lines? How would they meet the EU’s red lines? How would they meet Ireland’s requirements? Etc etc.
I would be quite interested in hearing from a Labour person on this. Maybe even in a thread header?
Their best strategy is to sit back and let the Tories tear themselves apart on the subject. I'm sure many Tories would love the media attention to focus on what Labour would do to distract from the shambles the Tories are making of it but they are not really obliged to fall into that trap.0 -
Good post. Politics in Britain is getting increasingly psycho as things come to a head.MrF said:Good article, but... if there is a certain deafness to your position too. People voted to leave for one dominant reason, and it is not being talked about. No one cares about trade other than Brexiteer Tory politicos. Immigration is all that matters to the vast majority who voted to leave and they are going to feel betrayed come what may, as the government will inevitably backslide because the economy won't work without it.
Political grandstanding (and the Tory fetish for 'handbags') might give the government a few good headlines, but the fundamental problem is that the populace were sold an easy answer and it doesn't exist.
* People voted Leave because of concerns about immigration
.....The government (should I say "a" government?) responds by saying "Right, we'll leave", while continuing to ignore concerns over immigration
Oh dear. Pressure builds.
* Politicians get all divided about what to most people is a load of old technical hoo-hah about customs and trade
.....The government may (possibly) respond by backing down and accepting some kind of CU that is a non-CU in name only
More pressure builds.
In GB the consciously perceived betrayal, or at least the betrayal that people receive buzzphrases from opinion formers and channellers to talk about, is very different from the subconsciously perceived betrayal, which has eff-all to do with customs and is all about immigration.
The repressed is bound to return, and it could happen very fast.
* Meanwhile in Northern Ireland, the place where until recently many of the people either worshipped the red hand of Finn McCool or were away with the fairies Fianna, becomes a place where people have the realism to call a hard border what it is, rather than buying into the BS (although of course whether or not the border actually is hard or not will affect only a small proportion of the population, so I'm not saying the territory is a beacon of rationality).
...This is a side issue to what used to be called the Conservative and Unionist Party, except it's one that could bring down their government, not because of internal division (which is extreme), but because they lose the support of their NI friends in the bowler hats.
За здоровье!0 -
Yes. Labour and the Tories had identical policies towards ERM membership and Iraq. But when they each blew up the government of the day had to carry the can. That's how it's always been.OllyT said:
Although frustrated by Corbyn's ambivalence on Brexit it is difficult to argue that it is not the wisest strategy right now. There is no election pending, there is no requirement for Labour to be clear about what it would do, it's irrelevant, they aren't in a position to do anything.Cyclefree said:
Yes, I’m surprised too. After all John Smith’s Labour was very effective at harrying the Tories over Maastricht.kle4 said:
Why are Labour unable to say anything very interesting about it?NickPalmer said:
The Labour problem is at present not so much Corbyn (nothing much has changed lately in views on him one way or the other) as that the issue of the day is Brexit, and we are unable say anything very interesting about it,.MarqueeMark said:
Even the Labour Party is going to work out that Corbyn is sending them down to yet another defeat. I said at the start of this year that it would get interesting if the Tories were on 43%, Labour 35%. Well......Dura_Ace said:
Every tory should go down on their arthritic knees and make an offering to Cthulhu, the tutelary deity of the Conservative and Unionist Party, for the continuing good health of J. Corbyn.MarqueeMark said:Tories with a 7 point lead over Labour perhaps says as much about the shambles that Corbyn Labour is on the EU as the Govt.'s shambles.....
I would certainly agree a 7 point lead for the Tories must surely be an outlier, but I am confused why Brexit is a problem on which Labour are unable to say anything interesting - with the shambolic path of the government it should be very easy in fact, and from the PMQ summaries Corbyn even manages to exploit that quite effectively.
If Corbyn were to win a GE this year what would Labour do over Brexit? What would they ask for? What deal would they want? What would be their red lines? How would they meet the EU’s red lines? How would they meet Ireland’s requirements? Etc etc.
I would be quite interested in hearing from a Labour person on this. Maybe even in a thread header?
Their best strategy is to sit back and let the Tories tear themselves apart on the subject. I'm sure many Tories would love the media attention to focus on what Labour would do to distract from the shambles the Tories are making of it but they are not really obliged to fall into that trap.0 -
Though a submarine, yellow or otherwise, is fine underwater!YellowSubmarine said:
I don't think I'm riding high. I just think the Brexit ship is sinking fast. Unfortunately the whole country including myself will go down with it.Mortimer said:Remainers think they’re riding high again, it seems. Remember the golden rule. This will come back to hurt their cause.
Personally, I have arranged a lifeboat so can scoff popcorn and watch.0 -
I'm jolly sure no Leaver would ever do anything uncouth in any circumstances.Theuniondivvie said:
Lolz.archer101au said:
The thing is, Leavers are democrats. If the majority in NI (or Scotland) want to leave, we would regret it, but we would never try to force them to stay, nor would we suggest that we enact revenge on the way out.
Trust the Guardian to call Alexander Nix an "evil genius". Bloody commies.0 -
No, I don't think they would. But they would withdraw confidence if London agreed an Irish Sea border. They also campaigned for Brexit - "we went in as one country and we will come out as one country". They wouldn't like a hard border but I think that if push really came to shove, they'd tolerate it in the short term.Purple said:@david_herdson
"So if the course of No Deal is set then far better to bring it on now, declare the unacceptability of the EU’s current negotiating positions, terminate the talks and walk out, than wait to be ambushed by the steamroller of events in December or next year. That at least gives time to pick up the pieces."
Not for this government it doesn't. It would fall in five minutes flat because the DUP would withdraw its confidence. WTO means hard border.0 -
Accurate analysis by David Herdson.
Well past time for the UK to revert to WTO terms. We should have started on that basis and negotiated from there.
If May will not do so then Boris or another leader will have to take over and do it.0 -
But all is not lost. Theresa to hold a peace summit with the Cabinet at Chequers to thrash things out.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jun/08/theresa-may-to-hold-peace-summit-over-brexit-white-paper
I think I know how this will go.
Media 'learns' that although leading pro-Brexit ministers were initially 'spitting blood, fizzing with rage, could barely be in the same room as Theresa' the Cabinet is now singing songs around the fireplace as a position of unity and strength has been agreed.
Boris slags Theresa off.
It all begins again.0 -
At times of crisis you need an inspiring, decisive leader.
Churchill was called upon at the start of WW2. He was not a perfect human being but he was the man for the job in thecircumstances.
Similarly, Boris is the man for taking on the task of implementing WTO terms. You need someone who has the big picture and strategies who does not get bogged down in the detail. Rules are there to be broken not as a straight jacket.0 -
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The 'after a fashion' leads me to believe that Mrs May would likely not consider said praise to be that much of a good thing. But I imagine she will take anything she can get at the moment.TheScreamingEagles said:My second end of the world alert in the past few days.
The afternoon thread is a piece by me praising Mrs May, after a fashion.0 -
Prompted by your challenge, I've written one and submitted it for possible publication.Cyclefree said:
I would be quite interested in hearing from a Labour person on this. Maybe even in a thread header?0 -
We should just rerun the referendum, but this time with two distinct choices: retain EU membership; sever all links with continental Europe and do the WTO thing. It would all be beautifully clear and simple for the public to understand. And the debate wouldn't be muddied by all that Leaver nonsense we had before about 'cake and eat it', 'my preferred option' and 'Project Fear'. Nothing succeeds like simplicity itself!0
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That was quick!NickPalmer said:
Prompted by your challenge, I've written one and submitted it for possible publication.Cyclefree said:
I would be quite interested in hearing from a Labour person on this. Maybe even in a thread header?0 -
But as with so many other reasonable suggestions made by both Remainers and Leavers on here, in the end the EU will always fall back on 'The rules are the rules'. I am not saying they are necessarily wrong in this although it is rather self destructive. But the bottom line is that they are not going to go anywhere near changing their rules even when it harms them as well as us.Barnesian said:
Not necessarily IF the EU is willing to come up with some new way to make it happen (as you say) .Richard_Tyndall said:
That is not possible. Unless the EU is willing to come up with some new way to make it happen, SM membership is only possible via EFTA membership and that precludes CU membership. It is either/or not both.YellowSubmarine said:Arlene Foster's intervention this week was unusually clear for a politician. The DUP Red line is NI divergence from rUK not the UK as a whole staying in the CU and/or SM. The question she was answering was in the context of the C + S agreement with the Tories. eg what she'd walk over.
On the one hand that helps May. There appears to be a majority for the CU in the Commons without the DUP. If they aren't prepared to die in a ditch for it it's game over.
The problem is the EU insist the backstop must be NI specifc.
The obvious way to square that circle is to make CU + SM End State not a backstop. Now we are nowhere near that with the SM but *a* CU is as we know now Labour policy as well as supported by some Tory rebels. If the DUP looking at some of these unification polls decide the CU is a UK wide solution to the Irish Border then we coukd well get it.
SM would be possible via an EFTA type membership (UKFTA not "EFTA") modified to include a CU. It would be bespoke to the UK.0 -
They are in favour of cherry picking and bespoke arrangements, except when they aren't.Richard_Tyndall said:
But as with so many other reasonable suggestions made by both Remainers and Leavers on here, in the end the EU will always fall back on 'The rules are the rules'. I am not saying they are necessarily wrong in this although it is rather self destructive. But the bottom line is that they are not going to go anywhere near changing their rules even when it harms them as well as us.Barnesian said:
Not necessarily IF the EU is willing to come up with some new way to make it happen (as you say) .Richard_Tyndall said:
That is not possible. Unless the EU is willing to come up with some new way to make it happen, SM membership is only possible via EFTA membership and that precludes CU membership. It is either/or not both.YellowSubmarine said:Arlene Foster's intervention this week was unusually clear for a politician. The DUP Red line is NI divergence from rUK not the UK as a whole staying in the CU and/or SM. The question she was answering was in the context of the C + S agreement with the Tories. eg what she'd walk over.
On the one hand that helps May. There appears to be a majority for the CU in the Commons without the DUP. If they aren't prepared to die in a ditch for it it's game over.
The problem is the EU insist the backstop must be NI specifc.
The obvious way to square that circle is to make CU + SM End State not a backstop. Now we are nowhere near that with the SM but *a* CU is as we know now Labour policy as well as supported by some Tory rebels. If the DUP looking at some of these unification polls decide the CU is a UK wide solution to the Irish Border then we coukd well get it.
SM would be possible via an EFTA type membership (UKFTA not "EFTA") modified to include a CU. It would be bespoke to the UK.0 -
Stark_Dawning said:
We should just rerun the referendum, but this time with two distinct choices: retain EU membership; sever all links with continental Europe and do the WTO thing. It would all be beautifully clear and simple for the public to understand. And the debate wouldn't be muddied by all that Leaver nonsense we had before about 'cake and eat it', 'my preferred option' and 'Project Fear'. Nothing succeeds like simplicity itself!
What would you do if a majority still voted to leave?0 -
I'd except it with good grace. The current chaos is starting to amount to a national humiliation. Although, of course, those who advocated that position would have to own the inevitable political and economic consequences.GIN1138 said:Stark_Dawning said:We should just rerun the referendum, but this time with two distinct choices: retain EU membership; sever all links with continental Europe and do the WTO thing. It would all be beautifully clear and simple for the public to understand. And the debate wouldn't be muddied by all that Leaver nonsense we had before about 'cake and eat it', 'my preferred option' and 'Project Fear'. Nothing succeeds like simplicity itself!
What would you do if a majority still voted to leave?0 -
I think Boris is the only person who can lead the Tory party to an overall majority in the event of a snap election. He still has an appeal to the man or woman in the street who does not have an interest in detailed policies. He is the Trump figure.David_Evershed said:At times of crisis you need an inspiring, decisive leader.
Churchill was called upon at the start of WW2. He was not a perfect human being but he was the man for the job in thecircumstances.
Similarly, Boris is the man for taking on the task of implementing WTO terms. You need someone who has the big picture and strategies who does not get bogged down in the detail. Rules are there to be broken not as a straight jacket.
I can't imagine the current favourites (Gove and Rees- Mogg) having that wide appeal. I'm sure Tory MPS can see this too (and probably so can Gove and Rees-Mogg). That's why I'm backing Boris as next Tory leader in spite of his obvious flaws. Trump's obvious flaws didn't prevent him winning first the primaries and then the election.
0 -
I agree , Boris IMO , would get Cameron's majority back in a snap election.Barnesian said:
I think Boris is the only person who can lead the Tory party to an overall majority in the event of a snap election. He still has an appeal to the man or woman in the street who does not have an interest in detailed policies. He is the Trump figure.David_Evershed said:At times of crisis you need an inspiring, decisive leader.
Churchill was called upon at the start of WW2. He was not a perfect human being but he was the man for the job in thecircumstances.
Similarly, Boris is the man for taking on the task of implementing WTO terms. You need someone who has the big picture and strategies who does not get bogged down in the detail. Rules are there to be broken not as a straight jacket.
I can't imagine the current favourites (Gove and Rees- Mogg) having that wide appeal. I'm sure Tory MPS can see this too (and probably so can Gove and Rees-Mogg). That's why I'm backing Boris as next Tory leader in spite of his obvious flaws. Trump's obvious flaws didn't prevent him winning first the primaries and then the election.
Gove does not deserve any support , the way he conducted himself , in the last Conservative leadership race.
0 -
Really interesting videos. Thanks very much.rcs1000 said:Can I just say "Wow".
I published my video on the oil price yesterday morning (LA time), mentioned it on here, and posted a tweet.
Said tweet has now got 180 odd likes, and a large number of retweets. My piece on trade deficits also saw its views shoot up, as people who saw my oil piece watched the trade deficit piece too.
If there's anyone on here who hasn't seen either of my last two pieces, they're here:
https://youtu.be/xHo82501394
https://youtu.be/2pKS2TCd_3c
And now, to bed.
0 -
She nominated herself to be the Brexit in cheif leader.TheScreamingEagles said:
Brexit is doing that. Mrs May is a symptom not a cause.MaxPB said:My Tory membership is about to expire, definitely close to calling up and cancelling after the shambles that Theresa May has presided over. She's killing out party and our chances for keeping Corbyn out of No 10.
Trouble is she could not lead an orderly exit , out of downing Street , in a fire drill.0 -
History teacher has on 3 separate occasions recently made the following statements to my son's class
1. ISRAEL was the cause of World war 2 (err, your supposed to be a fecking history teacher)
2. American and British arms companies insisted on both world war 1 and 2 continuing to allow them to continue profit making.
3. 9/11 was an inside job.
wow just wow.0 -
Or even choose the right sort of vessel....JosiasJessop said:
I love Eilean Donan castle on the Scottish west coast. It is picture-perfect from the outside, in a superb setting. Yet I know it's all an Edwardian fiction, rebuilt after the Royal Navy bombarded the original castle from the sea in the early 1700s.Alistair said:
Yes, complaining about Carcassonne being modified is hilarious given the utterly ahistoric 'restoration' done to it. As you look up the walls you can see the dramatic change from original stonework to the new perfectly dressed stone and purely decorative 'battlements'.Richard_Tyndall said:
Not to forgive the vandalism but you do know it is not medieval? It was rebuilt by the French in the 19th century and is effectively a Disney castle.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Meeks, to be fair, it's probably not the worst design 'genius' decision lately.
This is Carcassonne, in the south of France: https://twitter.com/FranceMbd/status/1005358839938539525
And this is what some damned fool modern artist did to it:
https://twitter.com/Arch_Revival_/status/993921773086310403
And those peaked roof turrets, utter fantasy.
I know it's a pastiche, but I can't help but love it.
And if anyone tried to deface it, I'd be the first on the barricades. Fortunately the Royal Navy probably could not spare three boats nowadays ...
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-highlands-islands-116053650 -
No, Mrs May's insipid leadership is doing that.TheScreamingEagles said:
Brexit is doing that. Mrs May is a symptom not a cause.MaxPB said:My Tory membership is about to expire, definitely close to calling up and cancelling after the shambles that Theresa May has presided over. She's killing out party and our chances for keeping Corbyn out of No 10.
0 -
Whinge like feck and call for a 3rd referendum?GIN1138 said:Stark_Dawning said:We should just rerun the referendum, but this time with two distinct choices: retain EU membership; sever all links with continental Europe and do the WTO thing. It would all be beautifully clear and simple for the public to understand. And the debate wouldn't be muddied by all that Leaver nonsense we had before about 'cake and eat it', 'my preferred option' and 'Project Fear'. Nothing succeeds like simplicity itself!
What would you do if a majority still voted to leave?0 -
What is it about his self-defeating cowardice in challenging May that makes you think he has these qualities?David_Evershed said:At times of crisis you need an inspiring, decisive leader.
Churchill was called upon at the start of WW2. He was not a perfect human being but he was the man for the job in thecircumstances.
Similarly, Boris is the man for taking on the task of implementing WTO terms. You need someone who has the big picture and strategies who does not get bogged down in the detail. Rules are there to be broken not as a straight jacket.0 -
Should be sacked on the spot.Floater said:
History teacher has on 3 separate occasions recently made the following statements to my son's class
1. ISRAEL was the cause of World war 2 (err, your supposed to be a fecking history teacher)
2. American and British arms companies insisted on both world war 1 and 2 continuing to allow them to continue profit making.
3. 9/11 was an inside job.
wow just wow.0 -
It's a sort of 80-20 rule. I write stuff quickly, which has been useful over the years, and it's usually about 80% OK. If I then sit down for two hours and polish it carefully, it never really gets any better.kle4 said:
That was quick!NickPalmer said:
Prompted by your challenge, I've written one and submitted it for possible publication.Cyclefree said:
I would be quite interested in hearing from a Labour person on this. Maybe even in a thread header?
PS TSE says he'll use it - should be up tomorrow morning.0 -
Have you reported him/her - that isn't history that's indoctrination!Floater said:
History teacher has on 3 separate occasions recently made the following statements to my son's class
1. ISRAEL was the cause of World war 2 (err, your supposed to be a fecking history teacher)
2. American and British arms companies insisted on both world war 1 and 2 continuing to allow them to continue profit making.
3. 9/11 was an inside job.
wow just wow.
Still it's no wonder so many young people voted remain....!!0 -
A very apt Irish turn of phrase! They are of course used to multiple referendums if the people don't vote the right way the first time round.Floater said:
Whinge like feck and call for a 3rd referendum?GIN1138 said:Stark_Dawning said:We should just rerun the referendum, but this time with two distinct choices: retain EU membership; sever all links with continental Europe and do the WTO thing. It would all be beautifully clear and simple for the public to understand. And the debate wouldn't be muddied by all that Leaver nonsense we had before about 'cake and eat it', 'my preferred option' and 'Project Fear'. Nothing succeeds like simplicity itself!
What would you do if a majority still voted to leave?0 -
It's been pretty obvious from day 1 that the EU is only interested in the UK paying over as big a fine as possible for leaving and screwing up the UK economy to discourage anyone else leaving.
Under May, the UK has tried to actually negotiate in good faith.
We need Trump like balls of steel now to play hardball. Walk away, no money, aggressive change to UK corporate tax structure to attract every business coming to Europe to move to the UK, propose huge import taxes on German cars and so on.
Otherwise the EU will just continue to take the piss.0 -
https://www.theguardian.com/money/2018/jun/09/au-pair-shortage-prompts-crisis-for-families
Many families are facing a childcare crisis following a 75% slump in the number of young Europeans willing to work as au pairs, as Brexit, plus other factors such as last year’s terrorist attacks in London and Manchester, deter young people from coming to the UK.
The horror.0 -
Have you contacted the school?Floater said:
History teacher has on 3 separate occasions recently made the following statements to my son's class
1. ISRAEL was the cause of World war 2 (err, your supposed to be a fecking history teacher)
2. American and British arms companies insisted on both world war 1 and 2 continuing to allow them to continue profit making.
3. 9/11 was an inside job.
wow just wow.0 -
Sounds like your average British University Professor......brendan16 said:
Have you reported him/her - that isn't history that's indoctrination!Floater said:
History teacher has on 3 separate occasions recently made the following statements to my son's class
1. ISRAEL was the cause of World war 2 (err, your supposed to be a fecking history teacher)
2. American and British arms companies insisted on both world war 1 and 2 continuing to allow them to continue profit making.
3. 9/11 was an inside job.
wow just wow.
Still it's no wonder so many young people voted remain....!!0 -
I was really disappointed by the au pair I hired.tlg86 said:https://www.theguardian.com/money/2018/jun/09/au-pair-shortage-prompts-crisis-for-families
Many families are facing a childcare crisis following a 75% slump in the number of young Europeans willing to work as au pairs, as Brexit, plus other factors such as last year’s terrorist attacks in London and Manchester, deter young people from coming to the UK.
The horror.
A certain niche genre of films had ruined my expectations on just exactly what au pairs are willing to do.0 -
TheScreamingEagles said:
I was really disappointed by the au pair I hired.tlg86 said:https://www.theguardian.com/money/2018/jun/09/au-pair-shortage-prompts-crisis-for-families
Many families are facing a childcare crisis following a 75% slump in the number of young Europeans willing to work as au pairs, as Brexit, plus other factors such as last year’s terrorist attacks in London and Manchester, deter young people from coming to the UK.
The horror.
A certain niche genre of films had ruined my expectations on just exactly what au pairs willing to do.0 -
This is under 45's.Sean_F said:
Ipsos Mori (who polled about the same time) showed about 70/30 in favour of staying in the UK. I wonder why the numbers diverge so much.Andy_Cooke said:
Um - are you sure you want to go with that stance?HYUFD said:
Last time I checked 49% was not a majoritywilliamglenn said:
Goodbye UK.rcs1000 said:So: announce plans to hire 10,000 new customs staff, compulsory purchase some land at Dover and along key roads in Northern Ireland, separate Customs & Excise from HMRC and give it a heavyweight head, and announce plans to - as much as possible - replicate the system used on the Swiss or Norwegian border.
https://twitter.com/SiobhanFenton/status/1004998281842298880
Because neither was 37.5%.
But 49-38 on a turnout of 87% turns into a 56.3-43.7 win, much like 37.5-34.7 on a turnout of 72.2% turns into a 51.9-48.1 win.
Those who don't know/don't care/ don't vote have no impact on the outcome and are usually disregarded. I've always seen the "but a majority of all voters didn't vote Leave!" cry as being invalid, personally, and this argument is closely related.0 -
The solution to the situation cannot be Boris. He is the cause of the mess we are in.David_Evershed said:At times of crisis you need an inspiring, decisive leader.
Churchill was called upon at the start of WW2. He was not a perfect human being but he was the man for the job in thecircumstances.
Similarly, Boris is the man for taking on the task of implementing WTO terms. You need someone who has the big picture and strategies who does not get bogged down in the detail. Rules are there to be broken not as a straight jacket.0 -
Indeed. It’d be like appointing Lord Halifax as Chamberlain’s successor.Fenman said:
The solution to the situation cannot be Boris. He is the cause of the mess we are in.David_Evershed said:At times of crisis you need an inspiring, decisive leader.
Churchill was called upon at the start of WW2. He was not a perfect human being but he was the man for the job in thecircumstances.
Similarly, Boris is the man for taking on the task of implementing WTO terms. You need someone who has the big picture and strategies who does not get bogged down in the detail. Rules are there to be broken not as a straight jacket.0 -
Oh dear. And the Guardian has worked so long and hard to imbue the idea that Brexit is anti-foreigner.tlg86 said:https://www.theguardian.com/money/2018/jun/09/au-pair-shortage-prompts-crisis-for-families
Many families are facing a childcare crisis following a 75% slump in the number of young Europeans willing to work as au pairs, as Brexit, plus other factors such as last year’s terrorist attacks in London and Manchester, deter young people from coming to the UK.
The horror.
Perhaps that can mitigate it by setting up some wind turbines in the whirlwind they are reaping, and work less hard to find cheap, tax-avoiding people to employ.
Officially, au pairs are unlikely to be classed as a worker or an employee. They aren’t entitled to the minimum wage or paid holidays, and are usually exempt from paying income tax and national insurance.
0 -
I am very wary when non-conservatives suggest their best election winning leader and more so when the name is Bojo!Yorkcity said:
I agree , Boris IMO , would get Cameron's majority back in a snap election.Barnesian said:
I think Boris is the only person who can lead the Tory party to an overall majority in the event of a snap election. He still has an appeal to the man or woman in the street who does not have an interest in detailed policies. He is the Trump figure.David_Evershed said:At times of crisis you need an inspiring, decisive leader.
Churchill was called upon at the start of WW2. He was not a perfect human being but he was the man for the job in thecircumstances.
Similarly, Boris is the man for taking on the task of implementing WTO terms. You need someone who has the big picture and strategies who does not get bogged down in the detail. Rules are there to be broken not as a straight jacket.
I can't imagine the current favourites (Gove and Rees- Mogg) having that wide appeal. I'm sure Tory MPS can see this too (and probably so can Gove and Rees-Mogg). That's why I'm backing Boris as next Tory leader in spite of his obvious flaws. Trump's obvious flaws didn't prevent him winning first the primaries and then the election.
Gove does not deserve any support , the way he conducted himself , in the last Conservative leadership race.0 -
The solution to the situation should not be Boris. He is the cause of the mess we are in.Fenman said:
The solution to the situation cannot be Boris. He is the cause of the mess we are in.David_Evershed said:At times of crisis you need an inspiring, decisive leader.
Churchill was called upon at the start of WW2. He was not a perfect human being but he was the man for the job in thecircumstances.
Similarly, Boris is the man for taking on the task of implementing WTO terms. You need someone who has the big picture and strategies who does not get bogged down in the detail. Rules are there to be broken not as a straight jacket.
"Should not" doesn't mean "cannot".0 -
You should make an urgent appointment with the Head.Floater said:
History teacher has on 3 separate occasions recently made the following statements to my son's class
1. ISRAEL was the cause of World war 2 (err, your supposed to be a fecking history teacher)
2. American and British arms companies insisted on both world war 1 and 2 continuing to allow them to continue profit making.
3. 9/11 was an inside job.
wow just wow.0 -
You mean you didn’t like his legs?tlg86 said:TheScreamingEagles said:
I was really disappointed by the au pair I hired.tlg86 said:https://www.theguardian.com/money/2018/jun/09/au-pair-shortage-prompts-crisis-for-families
Many families are facing a childcare crisis following a 75% slump in the number of young Europeans willing to work as au pairs, as Brexit, plus other factors such as last year’s terrorist attacks in London and Manchester, deter young people from coming to the UK.
The horror.
A certain niche genre of films had ruined my expectations on just exactly what au pairs willing to do.0 -
If I were being Machiavellian, I'd be promoting Rees-Mogg as next Tory leader! I genuinely think Boris could do a Trump. Clearly he thinks the same.felix said:
I am very wary when non-conservatives suggest their best election winning leader and more so when the name is Bojo!Yorkcity said:
I agree , Boris IMO , would get Cameron's majority back in a snap election.Barnesian said:
I think Boris is the only person who can lead the Tory party to an overall majority in the event of a snap election. He still has an appeal to the man or woman in the street who does not have an interest in detailed policies. He is the Trump figure.David_Evershed said:At times of crisis you need an inspiring, decisive leader.
Churchill was called upon at the start of WW2. He was not a perfect human being but he was the man for the job in thecircumstances.
Similarly, Boris is the man for taking on the task of implementing WTO terms. You need someone who has the big picture and strategies who does not get bogged down in the detail. Rules are there to be broken not as a straight jacket.
I can't imagine the current favourites (Gove and Rees- Mogg) having that wide appeal. I'm sure Tory MPS can see this too (and probably so can Gove and Rees-Mogg). That's why I'm backing Boris as next Tory leader in spite of his obvious flaws. Trump's obvious flaws didn't prevent him winning first the primaries and then the election.
Gove does not deserve any support , the way he conducted himself , in the last Conservative leadership race.0 -
Seriously, it's your duty to inform the school of this and, if adequate action isn't taken, authorities further up the chain. Apart from the obvious duty of care towards the students, the teacher clearly needs help. Sounds as if he or she is having some kind of breakdown.Floater said:
History teacher has on 3 separate occasions recently made the following statements to my son's class
1. ISRAEL was the cause of World war 2 (err, your supposed to be a fecking history teacher)
2. American and British arms companies insisted on both world war 1 and 2 continuing to allow them to continue profit making.
3. 9/11 was an inside job.
wow just wow.0 -
It would be exactly like appointing Winston Churchill as Chamberlain's successor. Churchill was the architect of the Norway Campaign which led directly to Chamberlain's downfall.TheScreamingEagles said:
Indeed. It’d be like appointing Lord Halifax as Chamberlain’s successor.Fenman said:
The solution to the situation cannot be Boris. He is the cause of the mess we are in.David_Evershed said:At times of crisis you need an inspiring, decisive leader.
Churchill was called upon at the start of WW2. He was not a perfect human being but he was the man for the job in thecircumstances.
Similarly, Boris is the man for taking on the task of implementing WTO terms. You need someone who has the big picture and strategies who does not get bogged down in the detail. Rules are there to be broken not as a straight jacket.0 -
By the same token my view of the most winnable possibility is Lab under Starmer or Thornberry advocating something pink and fluffy EU-wise.felix said:
I am very wary when non-conservatives suggest their best election winning leader and more so when the name is Bojo!Yorkcity said:
I agree , Boris IMO , would get Cameron's majority back in a snap election.Barnesian said:
I think Boris is the only person who can lead the Tory party to an overall majority in the event of a snap election. He still has an appeal to the man or woman in the street who does not have an interest in detailed policies. He is the Trump figure.David_Evershed said:At times of crisis you need an inspiring, decisive leader.
Churchill was called upon at the start of WW2. He was not a perfect human being but he was the man for the job in thecircumstances.
Similarly, Boris is the man for taking on the task of implementing WTO terms. You need someone who has the big picture and strategies who does not get bogged down in the detail. Rules are there to be broken not as a straight jacket.
I can't imagine the current favourites (Gove and Rees- Mogg) having that wide appeal. I'm sure Tory MPS can see this too (and probably so can Gove and Rees-Mogg). That's why I'm backing Boris as next Tory leader in spite of his obvious flaws. Trump's obvious flaws didn't prevent him winning first the primaries and then the election.
Gove does not deserve any support , the way he conducted himself , in the last Conservative leadership race.0 -
True , however he is a proven winner in London.Also Cameron was desperate to get him on board in the referendum campaign.Rightly so in my opinion, for all his faults , he is a dangerous opponent.felix said:
I am very wary when non-conservatives suggest their best election winning leader and more so when the name is Bojo!Yorkcity said:
I agree , Boris IMO , would get Cameron's majority back in a snap election.Barnesian said:
I think Boris is the only person who can lead the Tory party to an overall majority in the event of a snap election. He still has an appeal to the man or woman in the street who does not have an interest in detailed policies. He is the Trump figure.David_Evershed said:At times of crisis you need an inspiring, decisive leader.
Churchill was called upon at the start of WW2. He was not a perfect human being but he was the man for the job in thecircumstances.
Similarly, Boris is the man for taking on the task of implementing WTO terms. You need someone who has the big picture and strategies who does not get bogged down in the detail. Rules are there to be broken not as a straight jacket.
I can't imagine the current favourites (Gove and Rees- Mogg) having that wide appeal. I'm sure Tory MPS can see this too (and probably so can Gove and Rees-Mogg). That's why I'm backing Boris as next Tory leader in spite of his obvious flaws. Trump's obvious flaws didn't prevent him winning first the primaries and then the election.
Gove does not deserve any support , the way he conducted himself , in the last Conservative leadership race.
0 -
So the teacher is a Corbynista?Stark_Dawning said:
Seriously, it's your duty to inform the school of this and, if adequate action isn't taken, authorities further up the chain. Apart from the obvious duty of care towards the students, the teacher clearly needs help. Sounds as if he or she is having some kind of breakdown.Floater said:
History teacher has on 3 separate occasions recently made the following statements to my son's class
1. ISRAEL was the cause of World war 2 (err, your supposed to be a fecking history teacher)
2. American and British arms companies insisted on both world war 1 and 2 continuing to allow them to continue profit making.
3. 9/11 was an inside job.
wow just wow.0 -
A Javid /Gove ticket would do the job, win a GE and piss off the left - wntk?Barnesian said:
If I were being Machiavellian, I'd be promoting Rees-Mogg as next Tory leader! I genuinely think Boris could do a Trump. Clearly he thinks the same.felix said:
I am very wary when non-conservatives suggest their best election winning leader and more so when the name is Bojo!Yorkcity said:
I agree , Boris IMO , would get Cameron's majority back in a snap election.Barnesian said:
I think Boris is the only person who can lead the Tory party to an overall majority in the event of a snap election. He still has an appeal to the man or woman in the street who does not have an interest in detailed policies. He is the Trump figure.David_Evershed said:At times of crisis you need an inspiring, decisive leader.
Churchill was called upon at the start of WW2. He was not a perfect human being but he was the man for the job in thecircumstances.
Similarly, Boris is the man for taking on the task of implementing WTO terms. You need someone who has the big picture and strategies who does not get bogged down in the detail. Rules are there to be broken not as a straight jacket.
I can't imagine the current favourites (Gove and Rees- Mogg) having that wide appeal. I'm sure Tory MPS can see this too (and probably so can Gove and Rees-Mogg). That's why I'm backing Boris as next Tory leader in spite of his obvious flaws. Trump's obvious flaws didn't prevent him winning first the primaries and then the election.
Gove does not deserve any support , the way he conducted himself , in the last Conservative leadership race.0 -
How old is your son?Floater said:
History teacher has on 3 separate occasions recently made the following statements to my son's class
1. ISRAEL was the cause of World war 2 (err, your supposed to be a fecking history teacher)
2. American and British arms companies insisted on both world war 1 and 2 continuing to allow them to continue profit making.
3. 9/11 was an inside job.
wow just wow.0 -
Thank you, David, a really interesting read.
Good afternoon, everyone.0 -
This surely has to be a Brexiteer double agent trying to make Remain look ridiculous.tlg86 said:https://www.theguardian.com/money/2018/jun/09/au-pair-shortage-prompts-crisis-for-families
Many families are facing a childcare crisis following a 75% slump in the number of young Europeans willing to work as au pairs, as Brexit, plus other factors such as last year’s terrorist attacks in London and Manchester, deter young people from coming to the UK.
The horror.
0 -
If I were being Machiavellian, I'd wonder why Boris chucked his dead cat on the table at the perfect time to help Theresa May and hurt the Davis-Mogg axis.Barnesian said:
If I were being Machiavellian, I'd be promoting Rees-Mogg as next Tory leader! I genuinely think Boris could do a Trump. Clearly he thinks the same.felix said:
I am very wary when non-conservatives suggest their best election winning leader and more so when the name is Bojo!Yorkcity said:
I agree , Boris IMO , would get Cameron's majority back in a snap election.Barnesian said:
I think Boris is the only person who can lead the Tory party to an overall majority in the event of a snap election. He still has an appeal to the man or woman in the street who does not have an interest in detailed policies. He is the Trump figure.David_Evershed said:At times of crisis you need an inspiring, decisive leader.
Churchill was called upon at the start of WW2. He was not a perfect human being but he was the man for the job in thecircumstances.
Similarly, Boris is the man for taking on the task of implementing WTO terms. You need someone who has the big picture and strategies who does not get bogged down in the detail. Rules are there to be broken not as a straight jacket.
I can't imagine the current favourites (Gove and Rees- Mogg) having that wide appeal. I'm sure Tory MPS can see this too (and probably so can Gove and Rees-Mogg). That's why I'm backing Boris as next Tory leader in spite of his obvious flaws. Trump's obvious flaws didn't prevent him winning first the primaries and then the election.
Gove does not deserve any support , the way he conducted himself , in the last Conservative leadership race.0 -
Just finished in Lewisham East for final push with James Cleverly and Mark Field ahead of Thursday's by election. Good number of Tories out, saw plenty of LDs too (their HQ was nearby) plus some UKIP and Christian Peoples' Alliance deliverers.
Diane Abbott was also apparently out and about with Labour workers0 -
Mr Dancer, forgive me, but this does line of argument does strike me as being more exacerbating the problem than solving it. It is, however, natural and human to want the referendum result to give one the Brexit one most wants.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Submarine, staying in the single market and customs union is not respecting the referendum result and would store up massive trouble for the Conservatives (and perhaps wider political class).
It'd be unsurprising to have a new Farage-Banks party pretty rapidly, and one with a ready and willing base of voters who are less than thrilled at being treated with contempt by the Establishment.
However, the referendum result was to leave the EU. Everything else is interpretation, gloss, spin, call it what you will.
If EEA/EFTA membership were an artificial construct created solely for the purpose of our exit, then the stance would be eminently defensible, but it's a category that has existed for a long time and has a number of members.
Or if EEA/EFTA membership was commonly regarded as synonymous with EU membership (different only by a technicality), then I would also agree. But it's not. In fact, Norway has twice asked its people if they would like to transition from EEA to EU and twice have they rejected it. There are therefore millions of people who see the two states as significantly different in essence as well as in name.
It can be argued that EEA membership would not comply with all the promises of the Leave campaign, nor the threats of the Remain campaign. It is true, but then again, nothing could fully comply with said promises and threats. All forms of Brexit would therefore not respect the referendum result (neither, of course, would not Brexiting), and the argument becomes moot.
Polls indicate immigration is a key element (Polls also indicated we would stay in, of course). Polls indicate that Single Market membership with increased control of immigration is the most palatable Brexit to the people. We could always try actually exercising the controls on immigration that are already permitted in Single Market membership but that we don't actually do.
And, of course, exercise of Articles 112-113 of the EEA Agreement is always an option.0 -
Another excellent post.Andy_Cooke said:
Mr Dancer, forgive me, but this does line of argument does strike me as being more exacerbating the problem than solving it. It is, however, natural and human to want the referendum result to give one the Brexit one most wants.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Submarine, staying in the single market and customs union is not respecting the referendum result and would store up massive trouble for the Conservatives (and perhaps wider political class).
It'd be unsurprising to have a new Farage-Banks party pretty rapidly, and one with a ready and willing base of voters who are less than thrilled at being treated with contempt by the Establishment.
However, the referendum result was to leave the EU. Everything else is interpretation, gloss, spin, call it what you will.
If EEA/EFTA membership were an artificial construct created solely for the purpose of our exit, then the stance would be eminently defensible, but it's a category that has existed for a long time and has a number of members.
Or if EEA/EFTA membership was commonly regarded as synonymous with EU membership (different only by a technicality), then I would also agree. But it's not. In fact, Norway has twice asked its people if they would like to transition from EEA to EU and twice have they rejected it. There are therefore millions of people who see the two states as significantly different in essence as well as in name.
It can be argued that EEA membership would not comply with all the promises of the Leave campaign, nor the threats of the Remain campaign. It is true, but then again, nothing could fully comply with said promises and threats. All forms of Brexit would therefore not respect the referendum result (neither, of course, would not Brexiting), and the argument becomes moot.
Polls indicate immigration is a key element (Polls also indicated we would stay in, of course). Polls indicate that Single Market membership with increased control of immigration is the most palatable Brexit to the people. We could always try actually exercising the controls on immigration that are already permitted in Single Market membership but that we don't actually do.
And, of course, exercise of Articles 112-113 of the EEA Agreement is always an option.0 -
Hmm. Had no requests from the party to go and help in this one and had quite forgotten it. Over-confidence, sensible targeting (it'd be a 90-minute drive), or just everything in hand?HYUFD said:Just finished in Lewisham East for final push with James Cleverly and Mark Field ahead of Thursday's by election. Good number of Tories out, saw plenty of LDs too (their HQ was nearby) plus some UKIP and Christian Peoples' Alliance deliverers.
Diane Abbott was also apparently out and about with Labour workers0 -
+ 1 for that - don't ingore this.Stark_Dawning said:
Seriously, it's your duty to inform the school of this and, if adequate action isn't taken, authorities further up the chain. Apart from the obvious duty of care towards the students, the teacher clearly needs help. Sounds as if he or she is having some kind of breakdown.Floater said:
History teacher has on 3 separate occasions recently made the following statements to my son's class
1. ISRAEL was the cause of World war 2 (err, your supposed to be a fecking history teacher)
2. American and British arms companies insisted on both world war 1 and 2 continuing to allow them to continue profit making.
3. 9/11 was an inside job.
wow just wow.0 -
I have found myself wondering what I would do if I were in charge of implementing Brexit. This might be the result:
- We announce we will apply to join EEA/EFTA and the Single Market, noting that this places us outside of 70-80% or so of EU law, the CAP, CFP, etc, and we will apply all existing controls that are permitted on Freedom of Movement (and that we don't already apply). This also significantly reduces our gross payments to the EU; all savings being directed towards the NHS.
- We aim to sign the EEA Agreement as soon as possible. As this is an "off-the-peg" Agreement that needs minimal negotiation, we can therefore complete the Article 50 withdrawal as soon as it is done - we don't need to run the clock out for the two years. In short, we will then be out of the EU (and requiring an explicit application and negotiation to rejoin, if we ever want to do so) far sooner.
- All European Nationals resident in the UK prior to the referendum will be offered UK Citizenship and rights.
- We announce that we will subject this outcome to a referendum (I hate these now, but I feel it is necessary to close the subject off: it started with a referendum saying "do something" and should finish with one saying "Yes, that something will do") after five years. This will give the people long enough to judge whether or not the outcome is acceptable without being kicked into the long grass. I understand that no Parliament can bind its successor, but by passing the preliminary legislation and announcing the date, any future Parliament would have to explicitly renege on it to prevent it. The Government will campaign to remain inside the EEA.
- Should the level of immigration under FoM, even after full exercise of the standard existing powers, be sufficiently high as to cause continuing economic and/or political issues, we will exercise Articles 112-113 of the EEA Agreement until those issues are resolved (eg housing crisis).
For Leavers - this gets us out more rapidly and removes the opportunity for anyone to take their Brexit away. There would be no "Remain"; we'd already be outside the EU. We would have to explicitly rejoin to undo it. It provides a minimum disruption Brexit as well, and retains the option to go even further in the direction of Hard Brexit
For Remainers, it provides maximum European co-operation still in compliance with the referendum result, retains the Single Market, minimises disruption, provides a Peoples' Vote of some description, removes concern over resident EU Nationals in the UK, and keeps us as close as possible to the EU.
For everyone else, it stops all the disruption, provides minimal economic dislocation, provides the quickest possible certainty going forwards, and hopefully shuts up all the obsessives on both sides.0 -
Which constituency was Diane working?HYUFD said:Just finished in Lewisham East for final push with James Cleverly and Mark Field ahead of Thursday's by election. Good number of Tories out, saw plenty of LDs too (their HQ was nearby) plus some UKIP and Christian Peoples' Alliance deliverers.
Diane Abbott was also apparently out and about with Labour workers0 -
Jesting aside, it is a significant issue. One of my junior doctors is a single mum, and had to go part time because of being unable to replace her Au pair for 9 months. It seems impossible to get even fairly useless ones like her last.tlg86 said:https://www.theguardian.com/money/2018/jun/09/au-pair-shortage-prompts-crisis-for-families
Many families are facing a childcare crisis following a 75% slump in the number of young Europeans willing to work as au pairs, as Brexit, plus other factors such as last year’s terrorist attacks in London and Manchester, deter young people from coming to the UK.
The horror.0 -
EEA/EFTA is outside of the Customs union.Andy_Cooke said:
Mr Dancer, forgive me, but this does line of argument does strike me as being more exacerbating the problem than solving it. It is, however, natural and human to want the referendum result to give one the Brexit one most wants.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Submarine, staying in the single market and customs union is not respecting the referendum result and would store up massive trouble for the Conservatives (and perhaps wider political class).
It'd be unsurprising to have a new Farage-Banks party pretty rapidly, and one with a ready and willing base of voters who are less than thrilled at being treated with contempt by the Establishment.
However, the referendum result was to leave the EU. Everything else is interpretation, gloss, spin, call it what you will.
If EEA/EFTA membership were an artificial construct created solely for the purpose of our exit, then the stance would be eminently defensible, but it's a category that has existed for a long time and has a number of members.
Or if EEA/EFTA membership was commonly regarded as synonymous with EU membership (different only by a technicality), then I would also agree. But it's not. In fact, Norway has twice asked its people if they would like to transition from EEA to EU and twice have they rejected it. There are therefore millions of people who see the two states as significantly different in essence as well as in name.
It can be argued that EEA membership would not comply with all the promises of the Leave campaign, nor the threats of the Remain campaign. It is true, but then again, nothing could fully comply with said promises and threats. All forms of Brexit would therefore not respect the referendum result (neither, of course, would not Brexiting), and the argument becomes moot.
Polls indicate immigration is a key element (Polls also indicated we would stay in, of course). Polls indicate that Single Market membership with increased control of immigration is the most palatable Brexit to the people. We could always try actually exercising the controls on immigration that are already permitted in Single Market membership but that we don't actually do.
And, of course, exercise of Articles 112-113 of the EEA Agreement is always an option.
0 -
Labour are going to hold Lewisham East easily.0
-
No, the sample as a whole split 45/42 pro-Union. Ipsos Mori had 51/21, and Delta Poll for Policy Exchange had 59/23.nunuone said:
This is under 45's.Sean_F said:
Ipsos Mori (who polled about the same time) showed about 70/30 in favour of staying in the UK. I wonder why the numbers diverge so much.Andy_Cooke said:
Um - are you sure you want to go with that stance?HYUFD said:
Last time I checked 49% was not a majoritywilliamglenn said:
Goodbye UK.rcs1000 said:So: announce plans to hire 10,000 new customs staff, compulsory purchase some land at Dover and along key roads in Northern Ireland, separate Customs & Excise from HMRC and give it a heavyweight head, and announce plans to - as much as possible - replicate the system used on the Swiss or Norwegian border.
https://twitter.com/SiobhanFenton/status/1004998281842298880
Because neither was 37.5%.
But 49-38 on a turnout of 87% turns into a 56.3-43.7 win, much like 37.5-34.7 on a turnout of 72.2% turns into a 51.9-48.1 win.
Those who don't know/don't care/ don't vote have no impact on the outcome and are usually disregarded. I've always seen the "but a majority of all voters didn't vote Leave!" cry as being invalid, personally, and this argument is closely related.0 -
Vanilla message for you.Foxy said:
Jesting aside, it is a significant issue. One of my junior doctors is a single mum, and had to go part time because of being unable to replace her Au pair for 9 months. It seems impossible to get even fairly useless ones like her last.tlg86 said:https://www.theguardian.com/money/2018/jun/09/au-pair-shortage-prompts-crisis-for-families
Many families are facing a childcare crisis following a 75% slump in the number of young Europeans willing to work as au pairs, as Brexit, plus other factors such as last year’s terrorist attacks in London and Manchester, deter young people from coming to the UK.
The horror.0 -
It would would work for me.Andy_Cooke said:I have found myself wondering what I would do if I were in charge of implementing Brexit. This might be the result:
- We announce we will apply to join EEA/EFTA and the Single Market, noting that this places us outside of 70-80% or so of EU law, the CAP, CFP, etc, and we will apply all existing controls that are permitted on Freedom of Movement (and that we don't already apply). This also significantly reduces our gross payments to the EU; all savings being directed towards the NHS.
- We aim to sign the EEA Agreement as soon as possible. As this is an "off-the-peg" Agreement that needs minimal negotiation, we can therefore complete the Article 50 withdrawal as soon as it is done - we don't need to run the clock out for the two years. In short, we will then be out of the EU (and requiring an explicit application and negotiation to rejoin, if we ever want to do so) far sooner.
- All European Nationals resident in the UK prior to the referendum will be offered UK Citizenship and rights.
- We announce that we will subject this outcome to a referendum (I hate these now, but I feel it is necessary to close the subject off: it started with a referendum saying "do something" and should finish with one saying "Yes, that something will do") after five years. This will give the people long enough to judge whether or not the outcome is acceptable without being kicked into the long grass. I understand that no Parliament can bind its successor, but by passing the preliminary legislation and announcing the date, any future Parliament would have to explicitly renege on it to prevent it. The Government will campaign to remain inside the EEA.
- Should the level of immigration under FoM, even after full exercise of the standard existing powers, be sufficiently high as to cause continuing economic and/or political issues, we will exercise Articles 112-113 of the EEA Agreement until those issues are resolved (eg housing crisis).
For Leavers - this gets us out more rapidly and removes the opportunity for anyone to take their Brexit away. There would be no "Remain"; we'd already be outside the EU. We would have to explicitly rejoin to undo it. It provides a minimum disruption Brexit as well, and retains the option to go even further in the direction of Hard Brexit
For Remainers, it provides maximum European co-operation still in compliance with the referendum result, retains the Single Market, minimises disruption, provides a Peoples' Vote of some description, removes concern over resident EU Nationals in the UK, and keeps us as close as possible to the EU.
For everyone else, it stops all the disruption, provides minimal economic dislocation, provides the quickest possible certainty going forwards, and hopefully shuts up all the obsessives on both sides.0 -
I think this is peak Guardian.tlg86 said:https://www.theguardian.com/money/2018/jun/09/au-pair-shortage-prompts-crisis-for-families
Many families are facing a childcare crisis following a 75% slump in the number of young Europeans willing to work as au pairs, as Brexit, plus other factors such as last year’s terrorist attacks in London and Manchester, deter young people from coming to the UK.
The horror.
Why didn’t Remain campaign on the servant shortage that Brexit has inevitably triggered? It would have resonated so well in Hartlepool and Stoke.0 -
I expect Labour will hold it but where I was I saw more LD activists than Labour activists (though a few Labour posters too). Tory vote was holding OK but there was definitely some Labour to LD switchingNickPalmer said:
Hmm. Had no requests from the party to go and help in this one and had quite forgotten it. Over-confidence, sensible targeting (it'd be a 90-minute drive), or just everything in hand?HYUFD said:Just finished in Lewisham East for final push with James Cleverly and Mark Field ahead of Thursday's by election. Good number of Tories out, saw plenty of LDs too (their HQ was nearby) plus some UKIP and Christian Peoples' Alliance deliverers.
Diane Abbott was also apparently out and about with Labour workers0 -
Knowing her Lewisham Deptford!felix said:
Which constituency was Diane working?HYUFD said:Just finished in Lewisham East for final push with James Cleverly and Mark Field ahead of Thursday's by election. Good number of Tories out, saw plenty of LDs too (their HQ was nearby) plus some UKIP and Christian Peoples' Alliance deliverers.
Diane Abbott was also apparently out and about with Labour workers0 -
The recent case of a French au pair being tortured to death by her employers must be a big deterrent.RoyalBlue said:
I think this is peak Guardian.tlg86 said:https://www.theguardian.com/money/2018/jun/09/au-pair-shortage-prompts-crisis-for-families
Many families are facing a childcare crisis following a 75% slump in the number of young Europeans willing to work as au pairs, as Brexit, plus other factors such as last year’s terrorist attacks in London and Manchester, deter young people from coming to the UK.
The horror.
Why didn’t Remain campaign on the servant shortage that Brexit has inevitably triggered? It would have resonated so well in Hartlepool and Stoke.0 -
What's the PB maxim - it's a view !Sean_F said:
It would would work for me.Andy_Cooke said:
- We announce we will apply to join EEA/EFTA and the Single Market, noting that this places us outside of 70-80% or so of EU law, the CAP, CFP, etc, and we will apply all existing controls that are permitted on Freedom of Movement (and that we don't already apply). This also significantly reduces our gross payments to the EU; all savings being directed towards the NHS.
- We aim to sign the EEA Agreement as soon as possible. As this is an "off-the-peg" Agreement that needs minimal negotiation, we can therefore complete the Article 50 withdrawal as soon as it is done - we don't need to run the clock out for the two years. In short, we will then be out of the EU (and requiring an explicit application and negotiation to rejoin, if we ever want to do so) far sooner.
- All European Nationals resident in the UK prior to the referendum will be offered UK Citizenship and rights.
- We announce that we will subject this outcome to a referendum (I hate these now, but I feel it is necessary to close the subject off: it started with a referendum saying "do something" and should finish with one saying "Yes, that something will do") after five years. This will give the people long enough to judge whether or not the outcome is acceptable without being kicked into the long grass. I understand that no Parliament can bind its successor, but by passing the preliminary legislation and announcing the date, any future Parliament would have to explicitly renege on it to prevent it. The Government will campaign to remain inside the EEA.
- Should the level of immigration under FoM, even after full exercise of the standard existing powers, be sufficiently high as to cause continuing economic and/or political issues, we will exercise Articles 112-113 of the EEA Agreement until those issues are resolved (eg housing crisis).
For Leavers - this gets us out more rapidly and removes the opportunity for anyone to take their Brexit away. There would be no "Remain"; we'd already be outside the EU. We would have to explicitly rejoin to undo it. It provides a minimum disruption Brexit as well, and retains the option to go even further in the direction of Hard Brexit
For Remainers, it provides maximum European co-operation still in compliance with the referendum result, retains the Single Market, minimises disruption, provides a Peoples' Vote of some description, removes concern over resident EU Nationals in the UK, and keeps us as close as possible to the EU.
For everyone else, it stops all the disruption, provides minimal economic dislocation, provides the quickest possible certainty going forwards, and hopefully shuts up all the obsessives on both sides.
One which I probably would support.0 -
I’m sure that higher wages will encourage more au pairs.RoyalBlue said:
I think this is peak Guardian.tlg86 said:https://www.theguardian.com/money/2018/jun/09/au-pair-shortage-prompts-crisis-for-families
Many families are facing a childcare crisis following a 75% slump in the number of young Europeans willing to work as au pairs, as Brexit, plus other factors such as last year’s terrorist attacks in London and Manchester, deter young people from coming to the UK.
The horror.
Why didn’t Remain campaign on the servant shortage that Brexit has inevitably triggered? It would have resonated so well in Hartlepool and Stoke.
Oh, but of course, Remainers don’t like that idea do they - as we heard during the referendum...0 -
The French au pair who was tortured to death by French nationals living in London.Sean_F said:
The recent case of a French au pair being tortured to death by her employers must be a big deterrent.RoyalBlue said:
I think this is peak Guardian.tlg86 said:https://www.theguardian.com/money/2018/jun/09/au-pair-shortage-prompts-crisis-for-families
Many families are facing a childcare crisis following a 75% slump in the number of young Europeans willing to work as au pairs, as Brexit, plus other factors such as last year’s terrorist attacks in London and Manchester, deter young people from coming to the UK.
The horror.
Why didn’t Remain campaign on the servant shortage that Brexit has inevitably triggered? It would have resonated so well in Hartlepool and Stoke.
Whilst I am sure that is an extreme and unusual case, it does illustrate the helplessness of au pairs with little money dependent on fickle and domineering employers.
If Brexit reduces this kind of organised slavery, that is another plus in its favour.
0 -
The transition period is set to end by the time the general election is due in 2022 anywaywilliamglenn said:0 -
I see the now familiar refrain of 'the government should have prepared for no deal' is trotted out.williamglenn said:0