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SystemSystem Posts: 12,683
edited May 2018 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Of the last 22 published voting intention polls LAB has led in just one

The above table from Wikipedia shows the published national voting intention polls over the past three months.

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Comments

  • tpfkartpfkar Posts: 1,579
    edited May 2018
    Anecdotally this feels right - Labour are off the boil and increasingly unable to hide their divisions over Brexit, leftist purity, anti-semitism, whether election results have been good enough, trans issues and just how radical a Labour government would be.

    I don't feel that the Tories have got much better, but there's maybe a grudging respect for them grounding away with so much against them.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,705
    Second :(
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,705
    Did someone say strong and stable? :D
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,894
    So, the Conservatives have led in the many, Labour in the few...
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    RobD said:

    Did someone say strong and stable? :D

    Yes, 16 times in the 2017 manifesto.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 10,408
    The softer Theresa has become on Brexit, the more her political fortunes have rallied. She needs now to humiliate the Tory Leavers. Grind the bastards into the dust. That way a landslide beckons.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    Morris_Dancer said:

    So, the Conservatives have led in the many, Labour in the few...

    You ought to take up professional writing
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,769
    edited May 2018
    This polling slump has coincided with Corbyn’s Jewish problem.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,541
    Salisbury, ant-Semitism, general disillusionment with Corbyn on the soft left, have all taken their toll.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,894
    Mr. Smithson, I'm doing my best :cold_sweat:

    My wonderful books are available here: https://www.amazon.co.uk/Thaddeus-White/e/B008C6RU98/
  • PClippPClipp Posts: 2,138
    I do not think that next time, anybody will be talking about a "progressive alliance". Last time, in practice, that was just a green light encouraging everybody to pile in behind Labour. Labour were the beneficiaries, but themselves gave nothing away in exchange. Never again, I hope.
  • ElliotElliot Posts: 1,516
    Sean_F said:

    Salisbury, ant-Semitism, general disillusionment with Corbyn on the soft left, have all taken their toll.

    I suspect it's a combination of the Russia sympathy and the apparent opposition to enforcing illegal immigration.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 44,318
    Stark_Dawning said:

    The softer Theresa has become on Brexit, the more her political fortunes have rallied. She needs now to humiliate the Tory Leavers. Grind the bastards into the dust. That way a landslide beckons.

    cf. Jeremy Corbyn standing down to let someone more "sensible" take over.

    This is all of course at the heart of the centre vs extremist right/left discussion. Do we really want extremes on the right and the left or would we all be happier with two more centrist left and right parties?

    Too early to say, of course, but perhaps the public is realising that while easy to distinguish between the two, extremist parties and positions do not for a happy country make.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Stark_Dawning said:

    The softer Theresa has become on Brexit, the more her political fortunes have rallied. She needs now to humiliate the Tory Leavers. Grind the bastards into the dust. That way a landslide beckons.

    No, victory comes through building the widest possible coalition. As ever.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    https://twitter.com/estwebber/status/998570023374516224
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    All nailed on for an autumn election ,with the current polling.

  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    edited May 2018
    Stark_Dawning said:

    The softer Theresa has become on Brexit, the more her political fortunes have rallied. She needs now to humiliate the Tory Leavers. Grind the bastards into the dust. That way a landslide beckons.

    Love how the May haters have changed tune on hearing a soft brexit.

    The bastards will be the ones who betray the leave vote when we gave them our trust.
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    TOPPING said:

    Stark_Dawning said:

    The softer Theresa has become on Brexit, the more her political fortunes have rallied. She needs now to humiliate the Tory Leavers. Grind the bastards into the dust. That way a landslide beckons.

    cf. Jeremy Corbyn standing down to let someone more "sensible" take over.

    This is all of course at the heart of the centre vs extremist right/left discussion. Do we really want extremes on the right and the left or would we all be happier with two more centrist left and right parties?

    Too early to say, of course, but perhaps the public is realising that while easy to distinguish between the two, extremist parties and positions do not for a happy country make.
    They used to complain , they were all the same .

    Moaning sods .
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,314
    https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/998575686800609280
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 9,345
    What can Labour do to reverse this trend to the Tories?

    Two things:

    1. Distinguish themselves from the Tories on Brexit. Support all the amendments to the EU Withdrawal Bill including supporting the single market. That would have a major impact and attract Remainers back to Labour.

    2. Keep hammering away with examples that the Tories are the Nasty party with Mrs May responsible for a lot of the nastiness as Home Secretary. Keep the anti-Tory vote hot and motivated.

    What they won't do is change leader which makes 1. above quite difficult but not impossible.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,894
    Mr. Glenn, the UK playing a strong role in European science is absolute fine. What irks people is the customs union nonsense the unelected are trying to impose in the face of a democratic result to the contrary.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,705
    williamglenn said:

    https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/998575686800609280

    Sounds like she wants the UK to continue involvement in the EU’s funding programs. I think it’s separate from the Euratom agency.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,314
    Barnesian said:

    What can Labour do to reverse this trend to the Tories?

    Two things:

    1. Distinguish themselves from the Tories on Brexit. Support all the amendments to the EU Withdrawal Bill including supporting the single market. That would have a major impact and attract Remainers back to Labour.

    2. Keep hammering away with examples that the Tories are the Nasty party with Mrs May responsible for a lot of the nastiness as Home Secretary. Keep the anti-Tory vote hot and motivated.

    What they won't do is change leader which makes 1. above quite difficult but not impossible.

    They think they're combining 1 and 2 by always referring to a "Tory Brexit" as distinct from a "Labour jobs-first Brexit", but that message achieves neither objective.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Barnesian said:

    1. Distinguish themselves from the Tories on Brexit. Support all the amendments to the EU Withdrawal Bill including supporting the single market. That would have a major impact and attract Remainers back to Labour.

    Labour seats, 60%+ Leave, vulnerable to swings of up to 6% to Con:

    Dudley North 22
    Newcastle-under-Lyme 30
    Crewe & Nantwich 48
    Ashfield 441
    Bishop Auckland 502
    Peterborough 607
    Penistone and Stocksbridge 1322
    Wakefield 2176
    Stoke-on-Trent North 2359
    Blackpool South 2523
    Great Grimsby 2565
    Rother Valley 3882
    Scunthorpe 3431
    Bassetlaw 4852
    Workington 3925
    Dagenham and Rainham 4652
    Halifax 5376
    Don Valley 5169
    Bolsover 5288
    Stoke-on-Trent Central 3897
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 67,956
    Don't these people know that Hitler detested Bolsheviks?

    https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/campaign-for-labour-party-democracy-group-votes-to-oppose-ken-livingstones-expulsion-over-alleged-anti-semitism_uk_5b02a8a7e4b0a046186dfdcb?hpm
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    Tykejohnno said:

    Stark_Dawning said:

    The softer Theresa has become on Brexit, the more her political fortunes have rallied. She needs now to humiliate the Tory Leavers. Grind the bastards into the dust. That way a landslide beckons.

    Love how the May haters have changed tune on hearing a soft brexit.

    The bastards will be the ones who betray the leave vote when we gave them our trust.
    They will fall into the usual complacency , they have nowhere else to go.
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    Tissue_Price said:

    Barnesian said:

    1. Distinguish themselves from the Tories on Brexit. Support all the amendments to the EU Withdrawal Bill including supporting the single market. That would have a major impact and attract Remainers back to Labour.

    Labour seats, 60%+ Leave, vulnerable to swings of up to 6% to Con:

    Dudley North 22
    Newcastle-under-Lyme 30
    Crewe & Nantwich 48
    Ashfield 441
    Bishop Auckland 502
    Peterborough 607
    Penistone and Stocksbridge 1322
    Wakefield 2176
    Stoke-on-Trent North 2359
    Blackpool South 2523
    Great Grimsby 2565
    Rother Valley 3882
    Scunthorpe 3431
    Bassetlaw 4852
    Workington 3925
    Dagenham and Rainham 4652
    Halifax 5376
    Don Valley 5169
    Bolsover 5288
    Stoke-on-Trent Central 3897
    Will that matter if the Tories go for the softest of brexit's,the Tory betrayal will be already be in full swing in those area's.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,894
    Mr. Johnno, perhaps, depends if a UKIP type alternative is available. If it's up and running, could be a major problem for the blues. If not, people won't go for the yellows and probably not the reds either.

    Electorally, the price for the Conservatives could be at the election *after* the next one.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,314
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Glenn, the UK playing a strong role in European science is absolute fine. What irks people is the customs union nonsense the unelected are trying to impose in the face of a democratic result to the contrary.

    Setting up new customs controls might irk people who thought Brexit meant remaining part of a European free trade zone.
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Johnno, perhaps, depends if a UKIP type alternative is available. If it's up and running, could be a major problem for the blues. If not, people won't go for the yellows and probably not the reds either.

    Electorally, the price for the Conservatives could be at the election *after* the next one.

    Very true , at the moment the Conservatives are on their own on the right of politics in England , Scotland and Wales.

    Good position to be in with FPtp.
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    TOPPING said:



    Too early to say, of course, but perhaps the public is realising that while easy to distinguish between the two, extremist parties and positions do not for a happy country make.

    Alas, one has only to look at the US to see the unhappy results of that process. And the Dems response? To tack further to the left. [not even addressing the GOPs gutless response to Trumpism]
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 9,345
    Tissue_Price said:

    Barnesian said:

    1. Distinguish themselves from the Tories on Brexit. Support all the amendments to the EU Withdrawal Bill including supporting the single market. That would have a major impact and attract Remainers back to Labour.

    Labour seats, 60%+ Leave, vulnerable to swings of up to 6% to Con:

    Dudley North 22
    Newcastle-under-Lyme 30
    Crewe & Nantwich 48
    Ashfield 441
    Bishop Auckland 502
    Peterborough 607
    Penistone and Stocksbridge 1322
    Wakefield 2176
    Stoke-on-Trent North 2359
    Blackpool South 2523
    Great Grimsby 2565
    Rother Valley 3882
    Scunthorpe 3431
    Bassetlaw 4852
    Workington 3925
    Dagenham and Rainham 4652
    Halifax 5376
    Don Valley 5169
    Bolsover 5288
    Stoke-on-Trent Central 3897
    There are sixteen Tory seats where Remain was 60% plus which are vulnerable to an anti-Tory swing.

    At the last election, Labour was only slightly softer than the Tories on Brexit. The Tories have since gone much softer and so have Labour. The relative positions are much the same. There must be a lot of unhappy Leavers but what will they do? Vote UKIP? Stay at home? Hold their nose and vote Tory? Who knows?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 40,750
    Barnesian said:

    Tissue_Price said:

    Barnesian said:

    1. Distinguish themselves from the Tories on Brexit. Support all the amendments to the EU Withdrawal Bill including supporting the single market. That would have a major impact and attract Remainers back to Labour.

    Labour seats, 60%+ Leave, vulnerable to swings of up to 6% to Con:

    Dudley North 22
    Newcastle-under-Lyme 30
    Crewe & Nantwich 48
    Ashfield 441
    Bishop Auckland 502
    Peterborough 607
    Penistone and Stocksbridge 1322
    Wakefield 2176
    Stoke-on-Trent North 2359
    Blackpool South 2523
    Great Grimsby 2565
    Rother Valley 3882
    Scunthorpe 3431
    Bassetlaw 4852
    Workington 3925
    Dagenham and Rainham 4652
    Halifax 5376
    Don Valley 5169
    Bolsover 5288
    Stoke-on-Trent Central 3897
    There are sixteen Tory seats where Remain was 60% plus which are vulnerable to an anti-Tory swing.

    At the last election, Labour was only slightly softer than the Tories on Brexit. The Tories have since gone much softer and so have Labour. The relative positions are much the same. There must be a lot of unhappy Leavers but what will they do? Vote UKIP? Stay at home? Hold their nose and vote Tory? Who knows?
    As we agreed in the previous thread, Labour are not winning those remainers over. Corbyn's version of Brexit is basically the same as what Theresa is offering.

    As for leavers, most will be pleased to just be out, some will be upset that we haven't left fully and others that we haven't closed the border. The key group for the next Tory leader is placating the middle group and getting them to turn out while at the same time holding on to enough of the remainers who are no longer turning to Corbyn.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,705
    Barnesian said:

    Tissue_Price said:

    Barnesian said:

    1. Distinguish themselves from the Tories on Brexit. Support all the amendments to the EU Withdrawal Bill including supporting the single market. That would have a major impact and attract Remainers back to Labour.

    Labour seats, 60%+ Leave, vulnerable to swings of up to 6% to Con:

    Dudley North 22
    Newcastle-under-Lyme 30
    Crewe & Nantwich 48
    Ashfield 441
    Bishop Auckland 502
    Peterborough 607
    Penistone and Stocksbridge 1322
    Wakefield 2176
    Stoke-on-Trent North 2359
    Blackpool South 2523
    Great Grimsby 2565
    Rother Valley 3882
    Scunthorpe 3431
    Bassetlaw 4852
    Workington 3925
    Dagenham and Rainham 4652
    Halifax 5376
    Don Valley 5169
    Bolsover 5288
    Stoke-on-Trent Central 3897
    There are sixteen Tory seats where Remain was 60% plus which are vulnerable to an anti-Tory swing.

    At the last election, Labour was only slightly softer than the Tories on Brexit. The Tories have since gone much softer and so have Labour. The relative positions are much the same. There must be a lot of unhappy Leavers but what will they do? Vote UKIP? Stay at home? Hold their nose and vote Tory? Who knows?
    Do we have a list of those seats ordered by majority? Would be interesting to know which set is more vulenarable.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Barnesian said:

    Tissue_Price said:

    Barnesian said:

    1. Distinguish themselves from the Tories on Brexit. Support all the amendments to the EU Withdrawal Bill including supporting the single market. That would have a major impact and attract Remainers back to Labour.

    Labour seats, 60%+ Leave, vulnerable to swings of up to 6% to Con:

    Dudley North 22
    Newcastle-under-Lyme 30
    Crewe & Nantwich 48
    Ashfield 441
    Bishop Auckland 502
    Peterborough 607
    Penistone and Stocksbridge 1322
    Wakefield 2176
    Stoke-on-Trent North 2359
    Blackpool South 2523
    Great Grimsby 2565
    Rother Valley 3882
    Scunthorpe 3431
    Bassetlaw 4852
    Workington 3925
    Dagenham and Rainham 4652
    Halifax 5376
    Don Valley 5169
    Bolsover 5288
    Stoke-on-Trent Central 3897
    There are sixteen Tory seats where Remain was 60% plus which are vulnerable to an anti-Tory swing.

    At the last election, Labour was only slightly softer than the Tories on Brexit. The Tories have since gone much softer and so have Labour. The relative positions are much the same. There must be a lot of unhappy Leavers but what will they do? Vote UKIP? Stay at home? Hold their nose and vote Tory? Who knows?
    Sixteen Tory seats in total are in the 60%+ Remian bucket. But Labour are within 6% swings in only 4 of them, all in affluent parts of London, unsurprisingly:

    Finchley and Golders Green
    Putney
    Cities of London and Westminster
    Wimbledon

    It's an asymmetry where Labour actually have a bigger problem: they represent some of the most Remain and some of the most Leave seats in the country. Fortunately they are in Opposition where they can largely get away with ambiguity. There's plenty to criticise Corbyn for, but I think his tactics on this have been pretty good. Unless you are more dedicated to stopping Brexit than party politics, of course.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 9,345
    MaxPB said:

    Barnesian said:

    Tissue_Price said:

    Barnesian said:

    1. Distinguish themselves from the Tories on Brexit. Support all the amendments to the EU Withdrawal Bill including supporting the single market. That would have a major impact and attract Remainers back to Labour.

    Labour seats, 60%+ Leave, vulnerable to swings of up to 6% to Con:

    Dudley North 22
    Newcastle-under-Lyme 30
    Crewe & Nantwich 48
    Ashfield 441
    Bishop Auckland 502
    Peterborough 607
    Penistone and Stocksbridge 1322
    Wakefield 2176
    Stoke-on-Trent North 2359
    Blackpool South 2523
    Great Grimsby 2565
    Rother Valley 3882
    Scunthorpe 3431
    Bassetlaw 4852
    Workington 3925
    Dagenham and Rainham 4652
    Halifax 5376
    Don Valley 5169
    Bolsover 5288
    Stoke-on-Trent Central 3897
    There are sixteen Tory seats where Remain was 60% plus which are vulnerable to an anti-Tory swing.

    At the last election, Labour was only slightly softer than the Tories on Brexit. The Tories have since gone much softer and so have Labour. The relative positions are much the same. There must be a lot of unhappy Leavers but what will they do? Vote UKIP? Stay at home? Hold their nose and vote Tory? Who knows?
    As we agreed in the previous thread, Labour are not winning those remainers over. Corbyn's version of Brexit is basically the same as what Theresa is offering.

    As for leavers, most will be pleased to just be out, some will be upset that we haven't left fully and others that we haven't closed the border. The key group for the next Tory leader is placating the middle group and getting them to turn out while at the same time holding on to enough of the remainers who are no longer turning to Corbyn.
    I know that Labour are not winning those Remainers over and that Corbyn's version of Brexit is basically the same as what Theresa is offering.

    This exchange started with my suggestion that if Labour want to change the game, they should distinguish themselves from the Tories on Brexit and support all the amendments to the EU Withdrawal Bill including supporting the single market.

    The question then is what happens in Labour Leaver constituencies? Some Labour Leavers might switch to the Tories but some Tory Leavers might switch to UKIP or stay at home. Hard to tell.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    edited May 2018
    RobD said:

    Do we have a list of those seats ordered by majority? Would be interesting to know which set is more vulnerable.

    Further to my post below here are all 16, ordered by Lab swing required. * = from 3rd.

    Finchley and Golders Green 1.6%
    Putney 1.7%
    Cities of London and Westminster 4.1%
    Wimbledon 5.5%
    Altrincham and Sale West 6.1%
    Renfrewshire East* 6.7%
    Stirling* 7.5%
    Chelsea and Fulham 9.7%
    St Albans* 10.0%
    Hitchin and Harpenden 10.2%
    Ochil and South Perthshire* 10.7%
    Aberdeen South* 10.8%
    Cambridgeshire South 12.3%
    Richmond Park* 18.0%
    Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine* 18.4%
    Winchester* 20.8%
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    Not (yet) welcome in the UK - but welcome in France & Switzerland:

    https://twitter.com/BBCDanielS/status/998573306528911360
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,705
    Tissue_Price said:

    RobD said:

    Do we have a list of those seats ordered by majority? Would be interesting to know which set is more vulnerable.

    Further to my post below here are all 16, ordered by Lab swing required. * = from 3rd.

    Finchley and Golders Green 1.6%
    Putney 1.7%
    Cities of London and Westminster 4.1%
    Wimbledon 5.5%
    Altrincham and Sale West 6.1%
    Renfrewshire East* 6.7%
    Stirling* 7.5%
    Chelsea and Fulham 9.7%
    St Albans* 10.0%
    Hitchin and Harpenden 10.2%
    Ochil and South Perthshire* 10.7%
    Aberdeen South* 10.8%
    Cambridgeshire South 12.3%
    Richmond Park* 18.0%
    Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine* 18.4%
    Winchester* 20.8%
    Thanks. I suspect they won’t have much luck with the first one on that list!
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,885
    williamglenn said:

    Barnesian said:

    What can Labour do to reverse this trend to the Tories?

    Two things:

    1. Distinguish themselves from the Tories on Brexit. Support all the amendments to the EU Withdrawal Bill including supporting the single market. That would have a major impact and attract Remainers back to Labour.

    2. Keep hammering away with examples that the Tories are the Nasty party with Mrs May responsible for a lot of the nastiness as Home Secretary. Keep the anti-Tory vote hot and motivated.

    What they won't do is change leader which makes 1. above quite difficult but not impossible.

    They think they're combining 1 and 2 by always referring to a "Tory Brexit" as distinct from a "Labour jobs-first Brexit", but that message achieves neither objective.
    "Tory Brexit" just reminds voters that Labour didn't trust them with a Referendum, did they Ed?

    And unemployment has become a flaccid tool in Labour's armoury. Because the Tories have created record numbers of jobs. Tories = Jobs Wreckers just doesn't resonate.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,705
    CarlottaVance said:

    Not (yet) welcome in the UK - but welcome in France & Switzerland:

    https://twitter.com/BBCDanielS/status/998573306528911360

    “Last known picture”. Is he missing or something?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,894
    Mr. Glenn, I flit from amusement to contempt when people try and claim a vote to leave the EU meant we wanted them to dictate our trade policy without having to pay any heed to our economic interest. It's an intellectually vacant position, a proposition of preposterous proportions, a steaming mound of bullshit, and calling it a Mountain of Wisdom is no more persuasive, and no less wretched, than pretending there was a difference between the Constitution and the Lisbon Treaty.

    In more important news, rumours abound that F1's owners Liberty are going to give the proposed new circuit in Miami a special deal. The likes of Spa, Silverstone etc will be pissed off at that unless likewise is forthcoming for them, and it'll add to the suspicions Liberty are trying to Americanise the sport. Which is dumb, because the fan base is largely European, Japanese and South American. And the US motorsport scene has strong competition from Nascar and Indycar.

    Still, lovely news for Formula E.
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    williamglenn said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Glenn, the UK playing a strong role in European science is absolute fine. What irks people is the customs union nonsense the unelected are trying to impose in the face of a democratic result to the contrary.

    Setting up new customs controls might irk people who thought Brexit meant remaining part of a European free trade zone.
    Would not have thought so, maybe a few lorry drivers.

    Waiting an extra few minutes , once a year at the airport , will not upset ,those who voted leave.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,108
    RobD said:

    Tissue_Price said:

    RobD said:

    Do we have a list of those seats ordered by majority? Would be interesting to know which set is more vulnerable.

    Further to my post below here are all 16, ordered by Lab swing required. * = from 3rd.

    Finchley and Golders Green 1.6%
    Putney 1.7%
    Cities of London and Westminster 4.1%
    Wimbledon 5.5%
    Altrincham and Sale West 6.1%
    Renfrewshire East* 6.7%
    Stirling* 7.5%
    Chelsea and Fulham 9.7%
    St Albans* 10.0%
    Hitchin and Harpenden 10.2%
    Ochil and South Perthshire* 10.7%
    Aberdeen South* 10.8%
    Cambridgeshire South 12.3%
    Richmond Park* 18.0%
    Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine* 18.4%
    Winchester* 20.8%
    Thanks. I suspect they won’t have much luck with the first one on that list!
    They all* look safe enough off the back of the locals, a Labour majority on Trafford council might have implied vulnerability in Altrincham but not NOC.

    * The English seats.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 9,345
    RobD said:

    Barnesian said:

    Tissue_Price said:

    Barnesian said:

    1. Distinguish themselves from the Tories on Brexit. Support all the amendments to the EU Withdrawal Bill including supporting the single market. That would have a major impact and attract Remainers back to Labour.

    Labour seats, 60%+ Leave, vulnerable to swings of up to 6% to Con:

    Dudley North 22
    Newcastle-under-Lyme 30
    Crewe & Nantwich 48
    Ashfield 441
    Bishop Auckland 502
    Peterborough 607
    Penistone and Stocksbridge 1322
    Wakefield 2176
    Stoke-on-Trent North 2359
    Blackpool South 2523
    Great Grimsby 2565
    Rother Valley 3882
    Scunthorpe 3431
    Bassetlaw 4852
    Workington 3925
    Dagenham and Rainham 4652
    Halifax 5376
    Don Valley 5169
    Bolsover 5288
    Stoke-on-Trent Central 3897
    There are sixteen Tory seats where Remain was 60% plus which are vulnerable to an anti-Tory swing.

    At the last election, Labour was only slightly softer than the Tories on Brexit. The Tories have since gone much softer and so have Labour. The relative positions are much the same. There must be a lot of unhappy Leavers but what will they do? Vote UKIP? Stay at home? Hold their nose and vote Tory? Who knows?
    Do we have a list of those seats ordered by majority? Would be interesting to know which set is more vulenarable.
    Tissue Price has listed the most vulnerable in the 60% Remain category:

    Putney 1554
    Finchley and GG 1657
    London and Wstmster 3148
    Wimbledon 5622

    plus Altrincham and Sale 6426
    Chelsea and Fulham 8188

    plus Richmond Park (45) Stirling (148) and St Albans (6109) to other parties.

    But of course there are other vulnerable Tory seats that aren't quite 60%+ Remain such as Chipping Barnet (353) with 59% Remain.

  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,061
    Barnesian said:

    What can Labour do to reverse this trend to the Tories?

    Two things:

    1. Distinguish themselves from the Tories on Brexit. Support all the amendments to the EU Withdrawal Bill including supporting the single market. That would have a major impact and attract Remainers back to Labour.

    2. Keep hammering away with examples that the Tories are the Nasty party with Mrs May responsible for a lot of the nastiness as Home Secretary. Keep the anti-Tory vote hot and motivated.

    What they won't do is change leader which makes 1. above quite difficult but not impossible.

    As a Remainer and ex-Labour party member I am appalled by Corbyn's attitude to Brexit and as more voters understands where he really stands on this issue I expect his support to continue eroding.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Above c. 65% Leave there are very similar numbers of Labour and Conservative seats (35 or so each).

    These range from a Lab majority of 15,546 in Barnsley Central to a Tory majority of 24,897 in South Holland and the Deepings.

    There haven't been nearly as many think-pieces and journalistic excursions to the Tory Leave hotbeds.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    Caught up with 'A Very English Scandal' - I think the Grauniad sums it up very well:

    https://www.theguardian.com/tv-and-radio/2018/may/20/a-very-english-scandal-review-funny-and-confident-like-jeremy-thorpe
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,314
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Glenn, I flit from amusement to contempt when people try and claim a vote to leave the EU meant we wanted them to dictate our trade policy without having to pay any heed to our economic interest. It's an intellectually vacant position, a proposition of preposterous proportions, a steaming mound of bullshit, and calling it a Mountain of Wisdom is no more persuasive, and no less wretched, than pretending there was a difference between the Constitution and the Lisbon Treaty.

    I don't think anybody is suggesting that's what Leave voters wanted. They wanted to dictate terms to the EU and have the EU accept them because of the need to sell us their cars and prosecco. The Brexit they were sold has failed.
  • nunuonenunuone Posts: 1,138
    Tissue_Price said:

    Above c. 65% Leave there are very similar numbers of Labour and Conservative seats (35 or so each).

    These range from a Lab majority of 15,546 in Barnsley Central to a Tory majority of 24,897 in South Holland and the Deepings.

    There haven't been nearly as many think-pieces and journalistic excursions to the Tory Leave hotbeds.

    Because the Remain media (BBC, Channel 4, Sky News etc) want to frame the LEAVE vote as not really against E.U but against the establishment that has kept them poor. All they want is a more equitable economy, going to a Tory area which has low employment doesn't fit that narrative.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,391
    Too much of LAB thinking, it appears, is based on the hope that what happened last time will also occur next.

    Yep. In fairness, plenty of complacency to be found. Labour that polls won't matter, as they didn't last time (even if only to ensure a decent result, if still second), and the Tories that there's no way Corbyn has a similar campaign bump again.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,894
    Mr. Glenn, the desire to govern ourselves is antithetical to the unnecessary and stupid notion of leaving the EU whilst remaining in the customs union. Leaving it and determining our own trade policy has nothing to do with trying to dictate anything to the EU.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,391
    Barnesian said:

    RobD said:

    Barnesian said:

    Tissue_Price said:

    Barnesian said:

    1. Distinguish themselves from the Tories on Brexit. Support all the amendments to the EU Withdrawal Bill including supporting the single market. That would have a major impact and attract Remainers back to Labour.

    Labour seats, 60%+ Leave, vulnerable to swings of up to 6% to Con:

    Dudley North 22
    Newcastle-under-Lyme 30
    Crewe & Nantwich 48
    Ashfield 441
    Bishop Auckland 502
    Peterborough 607
    Penistone and Stocksbridge 1322
    Wakefield 2176
    Stoke-on-Trent North 2359
    Blackpool South 2523
    Great Grimsby 2565
    Rother Valley 3882
    Scunthorpe 3431
    Bassetlaw 4852
    Workington 3925
    Dagenham and Rainham 4652
    Halifax 5376
    Don Valley 5169
    Bolsover 5288
    Stoke-on-Trent Central 3897
    There are sixteen Tory seats where Remain was 60% plus which are vulnerable to an anti-Tory swing.

    At the last election, Labour was only slightly softer than the Tories on Brexit. The Tories have since gone much softer and so have Labour. The relative positions are much the same. There must be a lot of unhappy Leavers but what will they do? Vote UKIP? Stay at home? Hold their nose and vote Tory? Who knows?
    Do we have a list of those seats ordered by majority? Would be interesting to know which set is more vulenarable.
    Tissue Price has listed the most vulnerable in the 60% Remain category:

    Putney 1554
    Finchley and GG 1657
    London and Wstmster 3148
    Wimbledon 5622

    plus Altrincham and Sale 6426
    Chelsea and Fulham 8188

    plus Richmond Park (45) Stirling (148) and St Albans (6109) to other parties.

    But of course there are other vulnerable Tory seats that aren't quite 60%+ Remain such as Chipping Barnet (353) with 59% Remain.

    Oh, Mr Barnesian, I'd like to correct a misapprehension you had the other day that because i did not agree that the facts had not been put in 2016, that I was therefore had a fear and hatred of democracy and second referendums. I'm not opposed to a second referendum in principle, if that is what parliament decides, though I do question that it would solve our problems.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 9,345
    kle4 said:

    Barnesian said:

    RobD said:

    Barnesian said:

    Tissue_Price said:

    Barnesian said:

    1. Distinguish themselves from the Tories on Brexit. Support all the amendments to the EU Withdrawal Bill including supporting the single market. That would have a major impact and attract Remainers back to Labour.

    Labour seats, 60%+ Leave, vulnerable to swings of up to 6% to Con:

    Dudley North 22
    Newcastle-under-Lyme 30
    Crewe & Nantwich 48
    Ashfield 441
    Bishop Auckland 502
    Peterborough 607
    Penistone and Stocksbridge 1322
    Wakefield 2176
    Stoke-on-Trent North 2359
    Blackpool South 2523
    Great Grimsby 2565
    Rother Valley 3882
    Scunthorpe 3431
    Bassetlaw 4852
    Workington 3925
    Dagenham and Rainham 4652
    Halifax 5376
    Don Valley 5169
    Bolsover 5288
    Stoke-on-Trent Central 3897
    There are sixteen Tory seats where Remain was 60% plus which are vulnerable to an anti-Tory swing.

    At the last election, Labour was only slightly softer than the Tories on Brexit. The Tories have since gone much softer and so have Labour. The relative positions are much the same. There must be a lot of unhappy Leavers but what will they do? Vote UKIP? Stay at home? Hold their nose and vote Tory? Who knows?
    Do we have a list of those seats ordered by majority? Would be interesting to know which set is more vulenarable.
    Tissue Price has listed the most vulnerable in the 60% Remain category:

    Putney 1554
    Finchley and GG 1657
    London and Wstmster 3148
    Wimbledon 5622

    plus Altrincham and Sale 6426
    Chelsea and Fulham 8188

    plus Richmond Park (45) Stirling (148) and St Albans (6109) to other parties.

    But of course there are other vulnerable Tory seats that aren't quite 60%+ Remain such as Chipping Barnet (353) with 59% Remain.

    Oh, Mr Barnesian, I'd like to correct a misapprehension you had the other day that because i did not agree that the facts had not been put in 2016, that I was therefore had a fear and hatred of democracy and second referendums. I'm not opposed to a second referendum in principle, if that is what parliament decides, though I do question that it would solve our problems.
    Sorry. I was trolling you a bit before leaving the scene of the crime to have a superb pub meal in the sunshine with all the family.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,314
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Glenn, the desire to govern ourselves is antithetical to the unnecessary and stupid notion of leaving the EU whilst remaining in the customs union. Leaving it and determining our own trade policy has nothing to do with trying to dictate anything to the EU.

    It is if that trade policy presupposes free and uninhibited access to the "European free trade zone from Iceland to the Russian border" that "we will be part of".

    http://www.voteleavetakecontrol.org/briefing_newdeal.html
  • nunuonenunuone Posts: 1,138
    Tissue_Price said:

    Barnesian said:

    Tissue_Price said:

    Barnesian said:

    1. Distinguish themselves from the Tories on Brexit. Support all the amendments to the EU Withdrawal Bill including supporting the single market. That would have a major impact and attract Remainers back to Labour.

    Labour seats, 60%+ Leave, vulnerable to swings of up to 6% to Con:

    Dudley North 22
    Newcastle-under-Lyme 30
    Crewe & Nantwich 48
    Ashfield 441
    Bishop Auckland 502
    Peterborough 607
    Penistone and Stocksbridge 1322
    Wakefield 2176
    Stoke-on-Trent North 2359
    Blackpool South 2523
    Great Grimsby 2565
    Rother Valley 3882
    Scunthorpe 3431
    Bassetlaw 4852
    Workington 3925
    Dagenham and Rainham 4652
    Halifax 5376
    Don Valley 5169
    Bolsover 5288
    Stoke-on-Trent Central 3897
    There are sixteen Tory seats where Remain was 60% plus which are vulnerable to an anti-Tory swing.

    At the last election, Labour was only slightly softer than the Tories on Brexit. The Tories have since gone much softer and so have Labour. The relative positions are much the same. There must be a lot of unhappy Leavers but what will they do? Vote UKIP? Stay at home? Hold their nose and vote Tory? Who knows?
    Sixteen Tory seats in total are in the 60%+ Remian bucket. But Labour are within 6% swings in only 4 of them, all in affluent parts of London, unsurprisingly:

    Finchley and Golders Green
    Putney
    Cities of London and Westminster
    Wimbledon

    It's an asymmetry where Labour actually have a bigger problem: they represent some of the most Remain and some of the most Leave seats in the country. Fortunately they are in Opposition where they can largely get away with ambiguity. There's plenty to criticise Corbyn for, but I think his tactics on this have been pretty good. Unless you are more dedicated to stopping Brexit than party politics, of course.
    Finchley and Holders Green...yeah...em I think Tories will see a swing towards them
    Putney......possible
    Westminster......nope, local elections show Tory strength there
    Wimbledon...... don't know enough.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,705
    williamglenn said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Glenn, the desire to govern ourselves is antithetical to the unnecessary and stupid notion of leaving the EU whilst remaining in the customs union. Leaving it and determining our own trade policy has nothing to do with trying to dictate anything to the EU.

    It is if that trade policy presupposes free and uninhibited access to the "European free trade zone from Iceland to the Russian border" that "we will be part of".

    http://www.voteleavetakecontrol.org/briefing_newdeal.html
    Isn’t May seeking an FTA with the EU?
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180
    Graceless from Bercow as he misses the opportunity to apologise to Andrea Leadsom. Does, though, admit that he called her ‘stupid’ J. Forsyth

    Sadly we aren't getting an investigation into other claims of bullying as 2 Labour MPs and 1 Con MP voted it down. He is allowed to continue with his arrogant and boorish behaviour and in doing so brings shame on his office and on Parliament.
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    Labour are fine... they have the Owen Jones/IOS ground game behind them, sweeping all before them currently.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    felix said:

    Graceless from Bercow as he misses the opportunity to apologise to Andrea Leadsom. Does, though, admit that he called her ‘stupid’ J. Forsyth

    Sadly we aren't getting an investigation into other claims of bullying as 2 Labour MPs and 1 Con MP voted it down. He is allowed to continue with his arrogant and boorish behaviour and in doing so brings shame on his office and on Parliament.

    Paragraph 4 is exquisitely worded. Very graceless.

    https://twitter.com/LOS_Fisher/status/998593386620874752
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,108
    nunuone said:

    Tissue_Price said:

    Barnesian said:

    Tissue_Price said:

    Barnesian said:

    1. Distinguish themselves from the Tories on Brexit. Support all the amendments to the EU Withdrawal Bill including supporting the single market. That would have a major impact and attract Remainers back to Labour.

    Labour seats, 60%+ Leave, vulnerable to swings of up to 6% to Con:

    Dudley North 22
    Newcastle-under-Lyme 30
    Crewe & Nantwich 48
    Ashfield 441
    Bishop Auckland 502
    Peterborough 607
    Penistone and Stocksbridge 1322
    Wakefield 2176
    Stoke-on-Trent North 2359
    Blackpool South 2523
    Great Grimsby 2565
    Rother Valley 3882
    Scunthorpe 3431
    Bassetlaw 4852
    Workington 3925
    Dagenham and Rainham 4652
    Halifax 5376
    Don Valley 5169
    Bolsover 5288
    Stoke-on-Trent Central 3897
    There are sixteen Tory seats where Remain was 60% plus which are vulnerable to an anti-Tory swing.

    At the last election, Labour was only slightly softer than the Tories on Brexit. The Tories have since gone much softer and so have Labour. The relative positions are much the same. There must be a lot of unhappy Leavers but what will they do? Vote UKIP? Stay at home? Hold their nose and vote Tory? Who knows?
    Sixteen Tory seats in total are in the 60%+ Remian bucket. But Labour are within 6% swings in only 4 of them, all in affluent parts of London, unsurprisingly:

    Finchley and Golders Green
    Putney
    Cities of London and Westminster
    Wimbledon

    It's an asymmetry where Labour actually have a bigger problem: they represent some of the most Remain and some of the most Leave seats in the country. Fortunately they are in Opposition where they can largely get away with ambiguity. There's plenty to criticise Corbyn for, but I think his tactics on this have been pretty good. Unless you are more dedicated to stopping Brexit than party politics, of course.
    Finchley and Holders Green...yeah...em I think Tories will see a swing towards them
    Putney......possible
    Westminster......nope, local elections show Tory strength there
    Wimbledon...... don't know enough.
    Merton Con Lab LD

    Village 2206 287 407
    Hillside 1427 614 565
    Dundonald 1361 594 1576
    Raynes 1486 897 583
    West Barnes 1419 976 1624
    Cannon Hill 1644 1642 411
    Merton Park 574 644 269
    Abbey Ward 1446 1476 547
    Trinity 1199 1023 1279
    Wim Park 1822 1021 536

    14584 9174 7797
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,784
    williamglenn said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Glenn, I flit from amusement to contempt when people try and claim a vote to leave the EU meant we wanted them to dictate our trade policy without having to pay any heed to our economic interest. It's an intellectually vacant position, a proposition of preposterous proportions, a steaming mound of bullshit, and calling it a Mountain of Wisdom is no more persuasive, and no less wretched, than pretending there was a difference between the Constitution and the Lisbon Treaty.

    I don't think anybody is suggesting that's what Leave voters wanted. They wanted to dictate terms to the EU and have the EU accept them because of the need to sell us their cars and prosecco. The Brexit they were sold has failed.
    Given that the UK's entire balance of payments deficit is pretty well accounted for by the trade imbalance with the EU, and that we pay a hefty contribution to the EU budget for the privilege, there was indeed the potential for the UK to take a strong negotiating. But our Government has instead shown a willingness to roll over at every turn and be dictated to by the likes of the Irish Republic (which stands to lose far more than the UK in the event of no deal).

    So the approach to Brexit that many Leave voters favoured hasn't failed, rather it has never been tried.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    Barnesian said:

    What can Labour do to reverse this trend to the Tories?

    Two things:

    1. Distinguish themselves from the Tories on Brexit. Support all the amendments to the EU Withdrawal Bill including supporting the single market. That would have a major impact and attract Remainers back to Labour.

    2. Keep hammering away with examples that the Tories are the Nasty party with Mrs May responsible for a lot of the nastiness as Home Secretary. Keep the anti-Tory vote hot and motivated.

    What they won't do is change leader which makes 1. above quite difficult but not impossible.

    Boris isn't nasty, just foolish Promoted beyond his level of competence.
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    Tissue_Price said:

    felix said:

    Graceless from Bercow as he misses the opportunity to apologise to Andrea Leadsom. Does, though, admit that he called her ‘stupid’ J. Forsyth

    Sadly we aren't getting an investigation into other claims of bullying as 2 Labour MPs and 1 Con MP voted it down. He is allowed to continue with his arrogant and boorish behaviour and in doing so brings shame on his office and on Parliament.

    Paragraph 4 is exquisitely worded. Very graceless.

    https://twitter.com/LOS_Fisher/status/998593386620874752
    I think he hits the nail on the head.... speaking as a Tory 'please god not Leadsom' man last time.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,107
    SquareRoot said:

    Barnesian said:

    What can Labour do to reverse this trend to the Tories?

    Two things:

    1. Distinguish themselves from the Tories on Brexit. Support all the amendments to the EU Withdrawal Bill including supporting the single market. That would have a major impact and attract Remainers back to Labour.

    2. Keep hammering away with examples that the Tories are the Nasty party with Mrs May responsible for a lot of the nastiness as Home Secretary. Keep the anti-Tory vote hot and motivated.

    What they won't do is change leader which makes 1. above quite difficult but not impossible.

    Boris isn't nasty, just foolish Promoted beyond his level of competence.
    When did that happen? School or before?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,391
    edited May 2018
    Tissue_Price said:

    felix said:

    Graceless from Bercow as he misses the opportunity to apologise to Andrea Leadsom. Does, though, admit that he called her ‘stupid’ J. Forsyth

    Sadly we aren't getting an investigation into other claims of bullying as 2 Labour MPs and 1 Con MP voted it down. He is allowed to continue with his arrogant and boorish behaviour and in doing so brings shame on his office and on Parliament.

    Paragraph 4 is exquisitely worded. Very graceless.

    https://twitter.com/LOS_Fisher/status/998593386620874752
    Well uncouth language, particularly mildly uncouth, is not a reason to resign, and it looks like he is playing the martyr. Yes there are those who really want him out, and will look for opportunities to make that happen,. but he's laying it on a bit thick.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,769
    John Bercow is the pineapple on the pizza that is Parliament.

    I'd call him a tw@ but we all know he doesn't have the depth nor the warmth.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,391
    Barnesian said:

    kle4 said:

    Barnesian said:

    RobD said:

    Barnesian said:

    Tissue_Price said:

    Barnesian said:

    1. Distinguish themselves from the Tories on Brexit. Support all the amendments to the EU Withdrawal Bill including supporting the single market. That would have a major impact and attract Remainers back to Labour.

    Labour seats, 60%+ Leave, vulnerable to swings of up to 6% to Con:

    Dudley North 22
    Newcastle-under-Lyme 30
    Crewe & Nantwich 48
    Ashfield 441
    Bishop Auckland 502
    Peterborough 607
    Penistone and Stocksbridge 1322
    Wakefield 2176
    Stoke-on-Trent North 2359
    Blackpool South 2523
    Great Grimsby 2565
    Rother Valley 3882
    Scunthorpe 3431
    Bassetlaw 4852
    Workington 3925
    Dagenham and Rainham 4652
    Halifax 5376
    Don Valley 5169
    Bolsover 5288
    Stoke-on-Trent Central 3897
    There are sixteen Tory seats where Remain was 60% plus which are vulnerable to an anti-Tory swing.

    At the last election, Labour was only slightly softer than the Tories on Brexit. The Tories have since gone much softer and so have Labour. The relative positions are much the same. There must be a lot of unhappy Leavers but what will they do? Vote UKIP? Stay at home? Hold their nose and vote Tory? Who knows?
    Do we have a list of those seats ordered by majority? Would be interesting to know which set is more vulenarable.
    Tissue Price has listed the most vulnerable in the 60% Remain category:

    Putney 1554
    Finchley and GG 1657
    London and Wstmster 3148
    Wimbledon 5622

    plus Altrincham and Sale 6426
    Chelsea and Fulham 8188

    plus Richmond Park (45) Stirling (148) and St Albans (6109) to other parties.

    But of course there are other vulnerable Tory seats that aren't quite 60%+ Remain such as Chipping Barnet (353) with 59% Remain.

    Oh, Mr Barnesian, I'd like to correct a misapprehension you had the other day that because i did not agree that the facts had not been put in 2016, that I was therefore had a fear and hatred of democracy and second referendums. I'm not opposed to a second referendum in principle, if that is what parliament decides, though I do question that it would solve our problems.
    Sorry. I was trolling you a bit before leaving the scene of the crime to have a superb pub meal in the sunshine with all the family.
    And it was a successful trolling too!
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    kle4 said:

    Too much of LAB thinking, it appears, is based on the hope that what happened last time will also occur next.

    Yep. In fairness, plenty of complacency to be found. Labour that polls won't matter, as they didn't last time (even if only to ensure a decent result, if still second), and the Tories that there's no way Corbyn has a similar campaign bump again.

    Yes I agree,Mike in the header seems certain a Conservative leader will appear in TV debates with the Labour one.

    I have my doubts , prime minister's are usualy reluctant, Major Blair never did .
    Cameron insisted everyone was there, and only did one.
    Brown did from a weak position.
    May did not even consider it.

    Hard to see , why next time , it is so certain.
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    John Bercow is the pineapple on the pizza that is Parliament.

    I'd call him a tw@ but we all know he doesn't have the depth nor the warmth.

    Steady on..... remember this is Andrea Leadsom he's talking about.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,769
    edited May 2018
    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    John Bercow is the pineapple on the pizza that is Parliament.

    I'd call him a tw@ but we all know he doesn't have the depth nor the warmth.

    Steady on..... remember this is Andrea Leadsom he's talking about.
    Bercow's a former Monday Clubber, that makes him sub human Mark Reckless scum.

    He joined the Monday Club when their signature policy was the forced repatriation of Darkies.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 130,258
    If Corbyn is going to become PM it looks like he will have to cobble together a confidence and supply deal with the LDs, the SNP, Plaid, the Greens and maybe even Sinn Fein.

    Winning enough Tory voters over to Labour for an overall majority currently looks beyond him
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,314
    Wulfrun_Phil said:

    So the approach to Brexit that many Leave voters favoured hasn't failed, rather it has never been tried.

    See also John McDonnell's comments on Venezuela last weekend...
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    edited May 2018
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    John Bercow is the pineapple on the pizza that is Parliament.

    I'd call him a tw@ but we all know he doesn't have the depth nor the warmth.

    Steady on..... remember this is Andrea Leadsom he's talking about.
    Bercow's a former Monday Clubber, that makes him sub human Mark Reckless scum.

    He joined the Monday Club when their signature policy was the forced repatriation of Darkies.
    A what? Oh. you've expanded it. sounds poor to me, how on earth did he get the support of the house if he was so extreme?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,705
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    John Bercow is the pineapple on the pizza that is Parliament.

    I'd call him a tw@ but we all know he doesn't have the depth nor the warmth.

    Steady on..... remember this is Andrea Leadsom he's talking about.
    Bercow's a former Monday Clubber, that makes him sub human Mark Reckless scum.

    He joined the Monday Club when their signature policy was the forced repatriation of Darkies.
    A TPD+?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,769
    Yorkcity said:

    kle4 said:

    Too much of LAB thinking, it appears, is based on the hope that what happened last time will also occur next.

    Yep. In fairness, plenty of complacency to be found. Labour that polls won't matter, as they didn't last time (even if only to ensure a decent result, if still second), and the Tories that there's no way Corbyn has a similar campaign bump again.

    Yes I agree,Mike in the header seems certain a Conservative leader will appear in TV debates with the Labour one.

    I have my doubts , prime minister's are usualy reluctant, Major Blair never did .
    Cameron insisted everyone was there, and only did one.
    Brown did from a weak position.
    May did not even consider it.

    Hard to see , why next time , it is so certain.
    Cameron did four debates.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Government ministers should be able to look after themselves. I'm quite sure Andrea Leadsom can.

    The claims of bullying of junior staff members are an entirely different matter.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Wulfrun_Phil said:

    williamglenn said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Glenn, I flit from amusement to contempt when people try and claim a vote to leave the EU meant we wanted them to dictate our trade policy without having to pay any heed to our economic interest. It's an intellectually vacant position, a proposition of preposterous proportions, a steaming mound of bullshit, and calling it a Mountain of Wisdom is no more persuasive, and no less wretched, than pretending there was a difference between the Constitution and the Lisbon Treaty.

    I don't think anybody is suggesting that's what Leave voters wanted. They wanted to dictate terms to the EU and have the EU accept them because of the need to sell us their cars and prosecco. The Brexit they were sold has failed.
    Given that the UK's entire balance of payments deficit is pretty well accounted for by the trade imbalance with the EU, and that we pay a hefty contribution to the EU budget for the privilege, there was indeed the potential for the UK to take a strong negotiating. But our Government has instead shown a willingness to roll over at every turn and be dictated to by the likes of the Irish Republic (which stands to lose far more than the UK in the event of no deal).

    So the approach to Brexit that many Leave voters favoured hasn't failed, rather it has never been tried.
    Not to mention that said balance of payments deficit includes profits from our monopoly utilities -- including our government's subsidies flowing to EU governments, as we discussed on pb the other day.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,949
    edited May 2018
    Tissue_Price said:

    felix said:

    Graceless from Bercow as he misses the opportunity to apologise to Andrea Leadsom. Does, though, admit that he called her ‘stupid’ J. Forsyth

    Sadly we aren't getting an investigation into other claims of bullying as 2 Labour MPs and 1 Con MP voted it down. He is allowed to continue with his arrogant and boorish behaviour and in doing so brings shame on his office and on Parliament.

    Paragraph 4 is exquisitely worded. Very graceless.

    https://twitter.com/LOS_Fisher/status/998593386620874752
    Still doesn't explain why he is refusing to co-operate with Parliamentary authorities over the much more serious matter of the alleged bullying of his staff...
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 9,345
    Very little has changed since the last General Election. The Tories are still about 2-2.5% ahead of Labour. There have been several political "events" but none of them game changing.

    According to YouGov, Brexit is the most important issue to all parties and to both remainers and leavers. This is where the only major change has occurred.

    Brexit has got softer for both the Tories and Labour but with the same small difference between them, and causing some frustrated Tory leavers to support UKIP (up 1.5% on the GE).

    If neither main party changes their Brexit policy I suspect an early GE will have a similar result to last time with maybe the LibDems gaining 3 or 4 seats from the Tories.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,769
    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    John Bercow is the pineapple on the pizza that is Parliament.

    I'd call him a tw@ but we all know he doesn't have the depth nor the warmth.

    Steady on..... remember this is Andrea Leadsom he's talking about.
    Bercow's a former Monday Clubber, that makes him sub human Mark Reckless scum.

    He joined the Monday Club when their signature policy was the forced repatriation of Darkies.
    A what? Oh. you've expanded it. sounds poor to me, how on earth did he get the support of the house if he was so extreme?
    He said he had been on a journey.

    I was told by more than one reliable source that John Bercow came close to defecting to Labour.

    His wife is quite left wing and had an impact on him. Sally Bercow is her name I think.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,769
    RobD said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    John Bercow is the pineapple on the pizza that is Parliament.

    I'd call him a tw@ but we all know he doesn't have the depth nor the warmth.

    Steady on..... remember this is Andrea Leadsom he's talking about.
    Bercow's a former Monday Clubber, that makes him sub human Mark Reckless scum.

    He joined the Monday Club when their signature policy was the forced repatriation of Darkies.
    A TPD+?
    I'd prefer a Frenchman to Bercow.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    This, then, is the landing zone: customs union (and perhaps VAT collaboration) with the EU for the entire UK; regulatory union between Northern Ireland only and the EU. (Or in the jargon: the “Jersey model” for Northern Ireland only, customs and VAT for the whole UK.) This could be described as no “border” either on the island of Ireland on in the Irish Sea, but with Northern Ireland having its own regime of goods regulation. It would still face formidable political hurdles on both sides, but it could be made to fit the commitments made by all parties in December and since. There is little else that might.

    https://www.ft.com/content/b5bf5948-5a9f-11e8-b8b2-d6ceb45fa9d0
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,769
    @leonardocarella: An unexpected twist on an old classic.

    https://twitter.com/tomgara/status/998251360649916417
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487
    kle4 said:

    Tissue_Price said:

    felix said:

    Graceless from Bercow as he misses the opportunity to apologise to Andrea Leadsom. Does, though, admit that he called her ‘stupid’ J. Forsyth

    Sadly we aren't getting an investigation into other claims of bullying as 2 Labour MPs and 1 Con MP voted it down. He is allowed to continue with his arrogant and boorish behaviour and in doing so brings shame on his office and on Parliament.

    Paragraph 4 is exquisitely worded. Very graceless.

    https://twitter.com/LOS_Fisher/status/998593386620874752
    Well uncouth language, particularly mildly uncouth, is not a reason to resign, and it looks like he is playing the martyr. Yes there are those who really want him out, and will look for opportunities to make that happen,. but he's laying it on a bit thick.
    Not really.

    He has several questions to answer about bullying which are outside the scope of this letter.

    On this point, he has a point. It *was* stupidly handled by Grayling et al.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 9,345
    kle4 said:

    Barnesian said:

    kle4 said:

    Barnesian said:

    RobD said:

    Barnesian said:

    Tissue_Price said:

    Barnesian said:

    1. Distinguish themselves from the Tories on Brexit. Support all the amendments to the EU Withdrawal Bill including supporting the single market. That would have a major impact and attract Remainers back to Labour.

    Labour seats, 60%+ Leave, vulnerable to swings of up to 6% to Con:

    Dudley North 22
    Newcastle-under-Lyme 30
    Crewe & Nantwich 48
    Ashfield 441
    Bishop Auckland 502
    Peterborough 607
    Penistone and Stocksbridge 1322
    Wakefield 2176
    Stoke-on-Trent North 2359
    Blackpool South 2523
    Great Grimsby 2565
    Rother Valley 3882
    Scunthorpe 3431
    Bassetlaw 4852
    Workington 3925
    Dagenham and Rainham 4652
    Halifax 5376
    Don Valley 5169
    Bolsover 5288
    Stoke-on-Trent Central 3897
    There are sixteen Tory seats where Remain was 60% plus which are vulnerable to an anti-Tory swing.

    At the last election, Labour was only slightly softer than the Tories on Brexit. The Tories have since gone much softer and so have Labour. The relative positions are much the same. There must be a lot of unhappy Leavers but what will they do? Vote UKIP? Stay at home? Hold their nose and vote Tory? Who knows?
    Do we have a list of those seats ordered by majority? Would be interesting to know which set is more vulenarable.
    Tissue Price has listed the most vulnerable in the 60% Remain category:

    Putney 1554
    Finchley and GG 1657
    London and Wstmster 3148
    Wimbledon 5622

    plus Altrincham and Sale 6426
    Chelsea and Fulham 8188

    plus Richmond Park (45) Stirling (148) and St Albans (6109) to other parties.

    But of course there are other vulnerable Tory seats that aren't quite 60%+ Remain such as Chipping Barnet (353) with 59% Remain.

    Oh, Mr Barnesian, I'd like to correct a misapprehension you had the other day that because i did not agree that the facts had not been put in 2016, that I was therefore had a fear and hatred of democracy and second referendums. I'm not opposed to a second referendum in principle, if that is what parliament decides, though I do question that it would solve our problems.
    Sorry. I was trolling you a bit before leaving the scene of the crime to have a superb pub meal in the sunshine with all the family.
    And it was a successful trolling too!
    :) Sorry again. I was in a good mood. Still am.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited May 2018
    Nominations for the Lewisham East by-election:

    ADOO-KISSI-DEBRAH, Rosamund (Green Party)
    ARCHER, Ross Kenneth (The Conservative Party Candidate)
    CAREY, Charles Edward (No label)
    DABY, Janet Jessica (Labour Party)
    DIMAMBRO, Massimo James (Democrats and Veterans Party)
    FINCH, Sean Edward (Libertarian Party)
    GRAY, Patrick Hugo (The Radical Party)
    HALL, Thomas Bartholomew (Young People`s Party YPP)
    HOPE, Howling Laud (The Official Monster Raving Loony Party)
    KURTEN, David (UKIP)
    MARTIN, Maureen (Christian Peoples Alliance)
    REID, Mandu (Women's Equality Party)
    SALEK, Lucy (Liberal Democrats)
    WATERS, Anne Marie (The For Britain Movement)

    https://www.lewisham.gov.uk/mayorandcouncil/elections/Pages/Lewisham-East-constituency-by-election-on-June-14-2018.aspx
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Yorkcity said:

    kle4 said:

    Too much of LAB thinking, it appears, is based on the hope that what happened last time will also occur next.

    Yep. In fairness, plenty of complacency to be found. Labour that polls won't matter, as they didn't last time (even if only to ensure a decent result, if still second), and the Tories that there's no way Corbyn has a similar campaign bump again.

    Yes I agree,Mike in the header seems certain a Conservative leader will appear in TV debates with the Labour one.

    I have my doubts , prime minister's are usualy reluctant, Major Blair never did .
    Cameron insisted everyone was there, and only did one.
    Brown did from a weak position.
    May did not even consider it.

    Hard to see , why next time , it is so certain.
    Cameron did four debates.
    Apologies TSE , can not remember them.

    He did not do one directly with the Loto Ed Milliband did he ?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,769
    If you're experiencing a Blue Monday then watch this, it will cheer up your mood (although make you feel very old)

    https://twitter.com/TomBlenkinsop/status/998598308787638272
  • HHemmeligHHemmelig Posts: 617
    edited May 2018
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    John Bercow is the pineapple on the pizza that is Parliament.

    I'd call him a tw@ but we all know he doesn't have the depth nor the warmth.

    Steady on..... remember this is Andrea Leadsom he's talking about.
    Bercow's a former Monday Clubber, that makes him sub human Mark Reckless scum.

    He joined the Monday Club when their signature policy was the forced repatriation of Darkies.
    The Monday Club did not argue for forced repatriation, their policy was voluntary repatriation, though given the "hostile environment" this would have created, it might not have been all that voluntary in practice. It's also worth saying that the Monday Club was a broad church, at least by the 80s when Brecow was active in it, and by no means were all members in favour of such a strident approach to immigration.

    Given Bercow's council ward in Streatham was quite multi ethnic even in the 80s when he represented it, I doubt he was a hardline racist. I don't disagree with your overall dislike of Bercow at all though, as with Kinnock's famous saying about Ken Livingstone, few people who have met Bercow like him very much.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180
    GIN1138 said:

    Tissue_Price said:

    felix said:

    Graceless from Bercow as he misses the opportunity to apologise to Andrea Leadsom. Does, though, admit that he called her ‘stupid’ J. Forsyth

    Sadly we aren't getting an investigation into other claims of bullying as 2 Labour MPs and 1 Con MP voted it down. He is allowed to continue with his arrogant and boorish behaviour and in doing so brings shame on his office and on Parliament.

    Paragraph 4 is exquisitely worded. Very graceless.

    https://twitter.com/LOS_Fisher/status/998593386620874752
    Still doesn't explain why he is refusing to co-operate with Parliamentary authorities over the much more serious matter of the alleged bullying of his staff...
    I believe there is a convention that Speakers are elevated to the H/L upon retirement. A convention......
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,769
    HHemmelig said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    John Bercow is the pineapple on the pizza that is Parliament.

    I'd call him a tw@ but we all know he doesn't have the depth nor the warmth.

    Steady on..... remember this is Andrea Leadsom he's talking about.
    Bercow's a former Monday Clubber, that makes him sub human Mark Reckless scum.

    He joined the Monday Club when their signature policy was the forced repatriation of Darkies.
    The Monday Club did not argue for forced repatriation, their policy was voluntary repatriation, though given the "hostile environment" this would have created, it might not have been all that voluntary in practice. It's also worth saying that the Monday Club was a broad church, at least by the 80s when Brecow was active in it, and by no means were all members in favour of such a strident approach to immigration.

    Given Bercow's council ward in Streatham was quite multi ethnic even in the 80s when he represented it, I doubt he was a hardline racist. I don't doubt your overall dislike of Bercow at all though, as with Kinnock's famous saying about Ken Livingstone, few people who have met Bercow like him very much.
    Bercow sang Sectarian songs, he's a disgrace.

    https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/sectarian-shame-of-would-be-commons-speaker-1028212
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 67,956
    Owen Jones on Lewisham:

    "The right knew weeks before (maybe longer) that Heidi Alexander was standing down, giving them far longer to prepare."

    https://medium.com/@OwenJones84/what-happened-in-the-selection-battle-for-lewisham-easts-labour-candidate-e8bd3e1ce214


    Perhaps the PB brains trust can help me out, but I am pretty sure that we on PB were discussing the strong rumour that she was standing down and going to Khan's office for several weeks before the actual resignation.

    Or have I dreamt this?
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    HYUFD said:

    If Corbyn is going to become PM it looks like he will have to cobble together a confidence and supply deal with the LDs, the SNP, Plaid, the Greens and maybe even Sinn Fein.

    Winning enough Tory voters over to Labour for an overall majority currently looks beyond him

    There could be a large section of conservative leavers , who decide to not bother voting .

    If the eventual deal is not to their taste.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180
    Leadson was very foolish to stand for the Conservative leadership but she is not wothout ability and this quote just now is spot on:

    No prizes for guessing who Andrea Leadsom is talking about:

    “As you said last week, Mr Speaker, we have a responsibility to safeguard the rights of this House and as Leader of the House I seek to do exactly that, treating all members of parliament with courtesy and respect. I hope and expect all Honourable and Right Honourable members to do likewise.”
    Guido
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,913
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    If you're experiencing a Blue Monday then watch this, it will cheer up your mood (although make you feel very old)

    https://twitter.com/TomBlenkinsop/status/998598308787638272

    The best England song ever!
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,705
    edited May 2018
    rottenborough said:

    Owen Jones on Lewisham:

    "The right knew weeks before (maybe longer) that Heidi Alexander was standing down, giving them far longer to prepare."

    https://medium.com/@OwenJones84/what-happened-in-the-selection-battle-for-lewisham-easts-labour-candidate-e8bd3e1ce214


    Perhaps the PB brains trust can help me out, but I am pretty sure that we on PB were discussing the strong rumour that she was standing down and going to Khan's office for several weeks before the actual resignation.

    Or have I dreamt this?

    Isn't that what Owen said, that the right knew about it for weeks before?

    I'll get my coat....
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 67,956
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Yorkcity said:

    kle4 said:

    Too much of LAB thinking, it appears, is based on the hope that what happened last time will also occur next.

    Yep. In fairness, plenty of complacency to be found. Labour that polls won't matter, as they didn't last time (even if only to ensure a decent result, if still second), and the Tories that there's no way Corbyn has a similar campaign bump again.

    Yes I agree,Mike in the header seems certain a Conservative leader will appear in TV debates with the Labour one.

    I have my doubts , prime minister's are usualy reluctant, Major Blair never did .
    Cameron insisted everyone was there, and only did one.
    Brown did from a weak position.
    May did not even consider it.

    Hard to see , why next time , it is so certain.
    Cameron did four debates.
    May wont want to do them. It's probably her 2nd worst arena.*

    But a) she will have no choice - she simply can't, just can't, concede ground again by sending her home office sec instead b) it may well not be May anyway.


    * Her first is obviously being around the scenes of major disasters.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,769
    Yorkcity said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Yorkcity said:

    kle4 said:

    Too much of LAB thinking, it appears, is based on the hope that what happened last time will also occur next.

    Yep. In fairness, plenty of complacency to be found. Labour that polls won't matter, as they didn't last time (even if only to ensure a decent result, if still second), and the Tories that there's no way Corbyn has a similar campaign bump again.

    Yes I agree,Mike in the header seems certain a Conservative leader will appear in TV debates with the Labour one.

    I have my doubts , prime minister's are usualy reluctant, Major Blair never did .
    Cameron insisted everyone was there, and only did one.
    Brown did from a weak position.
    May did not even consider it.

    Hard to see , why next time , it is so certain.
    Cameron did four debates.
    Apologies TSE , can not remember them.

    He did not do one directly with the Loto Ed Milliband did he ?
    There were 3 debates in 2010 featuring Brown, Cameron, and Clegg, the first debate led to the Cleggasm.

    In 2015 there was big one all in featuring Cameron with Miliband, Clegg, and Farage, plus Natalie Bennett, Leanne Wood, Nicola Sturgeon, and Uncle Tom Cobley from the minor/regional parties
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,913
    rottenborough said:

    Don't these people know that Hitler detested Bolsheviks?

    https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/campaign-for-labour-party-democracy-group-votes-to-oppose-ken-livingstones-expulsion-over-alleged-anti-semitism_uk_5b02a8a7e4b0a046186dfdcb?hpm

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antisemitism_in_the_Soviet_Union
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