politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Has Labour lost its momentum?
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Has Labour lost its momentum?
You can tell a lot about how well a party has done by where a leader goes to celebrate their election victories. Theresa May (no doubt unwittingly) re-emphasised her caution-first nature by travelling all the way to Wandsworth: a council the Tories have held since 1978. She could have gone to Nuneaton, where the Tories stripped Labour of a sizable majority (unlike Wandsworth, where it was the Tories losing seats), or to Redditch, Barnet or Basildon – but she didn’t.
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First
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Second! Like Corbyn Yes and Remain!0
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FPT - Stephen Fisher (before final results):
Opposition parties normally win local elections. Since records began, albeit only since 1982, the oppositions that have gone on to win the next general election have won double digit leads in all the preceding local elections, starting with those in the immediate post-election year. Not only is Labour far from having a 10-point lead, the fact that it has no lead at all should be deeply disappointing.
Some Labour supporters may comfort themselves with the observation that the 11 point Tory lead in the PNS at last year’s local elections collapsed within the space of a month to a 2.5 point general election lead. That experience was a salutary lesson that public opinion can change dramatically. But that does not mean that we should expect the Conservatives to run a similarly disastrous campaign in the future.
While Labour did poorly, the Conservatives cannot rest easy. Their performance does not indicate that they would most likely regain their majority at the next general election.
https://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/politics/local-elections-the-key-numbers-crunched0 -
On the anti-semitism question, those interested I suggest read the original report:
https://antisemitism.uk/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/Antisemitism-Barometer-2017.pdf
Rather than the Labour spun version which is often posted - and omits:
Labour Party supporters are less likely to be antisemitic than other voters, so the cause of British Jews’ discontentment with the Labour Party must be the way that it has very publicly failed to robustly deal with the antisemites in its ranks. This means that the Labour Party has fallen out of step with its core supporters, who are generally less likely to hold antisemitic beliefs.
Focussing instead on the first dozen words and ignoring the rest....0 -
FPT:
There's no evidence for that.TheJezziah said:
I'm not sure why they are less bothered by the greater levels of anti-semitism in the Conservative partyCarlottaVance said:
Why do you think 83% of British Jews think the Labour Party is too tolerant of antisemitism among their MPs, members and supporters, while the comparable number for the Conservatives is 19%?TheJezziah said:
You disagreed with my statement, that is how we went on off on this little chain.CarlottaVance said:
We were arguing about Parties - you know - the thing Party Leaders are Responsible forTheJezziah said:Sorry are the statistics different to my link?
Neither May nor Corbyn are directly responsible for who votes for them. They are directly responsible for the internal discipline within their party and the atmosphere within the party.
Why do you think 83% of British Jews think the Labour Party is too tolerant of antisemitism among their MPs, members and supporters, while the comparable number for the Conservatives is 19%?
The quote the original report, not the Labour spun version you posted:
Labour Party supporters are less likely to be antisemitic than other voters, so the cause of British Jews’ discontentment with the Labour Party must be the way that it has very publicly failed to robustly deal with the antisemites in its ranks. This means that the Labour Party has fallen out of step with its core supporters, who are generally less likely to hold antisemitic beliefs.
I was talking about voters, if you are not you are clearly arguing a different point.
But yes I can fully understand why the Conservatives wouldn't care about anti-semitic Conservatives and would rather keep that quiet and use anti-semitism to point score.
Among voters, yes - but in the party no. And if British Jews are any guide 83% of them think the Labour Party has a problem compared to 19% who think the Conservative Party has.0 -
Find it is best to stick with facts rather than what people think but given the facts do not favour the Conservatives I can understand why you'd prefer not to.CarlottaVance said:FPT:
There's no evidence for that.TheJezziah said:
I'm not sure why they are less bothered by the greater levels of anti-semitism in the Conservative partyCarlottaVance said:
Why do you think 83% of British Jews think the Labour Party is too tolerant of antisemitism among their MPs, members and supporters, while the comparable number for the Conservatives is 19%?TheJezziah said:
You disagreed with my statement, that is how we went on off on this little chain.CarlottaVance said:
We were arguing about Parties - you know - the thing Party Leaders are Responsible forTheJezziah said:Sorry are the statistics different to my link?
Neither May nor Corbyn are directly responsible for who votes for them. They are directly responsible for the internal discipline within their party and the atmosphere within the party.
Why do you think 83% of British Jews think the Labour Party is too tolerant of antisemitism among their MPs, members and supporters, while the comparable number for the Conservatives is 19%?
The quote the original report, not the Labour spun version you posted:
Labour Party supporters are less likely to be antisemitic than other voters, so the cause of British Jews’ discontentment with the Labour Party must be the way that it has very publicly failed to robustly deal with the antisemites in its ranks. This means that the Labour Party has fallen out of step with its core supporters, who are generally less likely to hold antisemitic beliefs.
I was talking about voters, if you are not you are clearly arguing a different point.
But yes I can fully understand why the Conservatives wouldn't care about anti-semitic Conservatives and would rather keep that quiet and use anti-semitism to point score.
Among voters, yes - but in the party no. And if British Jews are any guide 83% of them think the Labour Party has a problem compared to 19% who think the Conservative Party has.
Edit: Also the statistics I posted were true, you can find them in the report, however distressing that might be.0 -
On topic.
Anyone expecting some kind of grand surge from last summer was disappointed and probably shouldn't have got so carried away.*
You couldn't describe Labour as any kind of run away freight train in momentum terms.
I said a while back when the polls were fairly even, much as they are now, that status quo isn't terrible for Labour at the moment. Going off the predicted national vote shares we would actually be largest party, obviously heavy caveats involved with that, which I am pretty pleased with, seems like good progress from that general election last year. Slow progress but if we could build on it then in a few years we could secure a majority.
I might be completely wrong but I don't buy into this idea that you need some incredible local election results otherwise you will lose the next general election.
Labour is probably more the tortoise than the hare at the moment, which I am more than happy with as long as it works out the same way as the story.
Edit: *I did laugh at Matt Zarb in his MAGA hat...0 -
The 'facts' you like are also 'what people think' just like the "facts" you don't like - and they represent the opinions of voters which you keep trying to avoid - but ignoring its the best way to address anti-semitism if you're Labour, it would appear.TheJezziah said:
Find it is best to stick with facts rather than what people think but given the facts do not favour the Conservatives I can understand why you'd prefer not to.
Edit: Also the statistics I posted were true, you can find them in the report, however distressing that might be.
I didn't dispute the accuracy of your stats (even if you try to meld 'voters' into 'parties') - I was merely pointing out the original report presents a fuller picture including evidence the Labour spun one curiously omits.....0 -
Stephen Fisher:TheJezziah said:I don't buy into this idea that you need some incredible local election results otherwise you will lose the next general election.
Edit: *I did laugh at Matt Zarb in his MAGA hat...
Opposition parties normally win local elections. Since records began, albeit only since 1982, the oppositions that have gone on to win the next general election have won double digit leads in all the preceding local elections, starting with those in the immediate post-election year. Not only is Labour far from having a 10-point lead, the fact that it has no lead at all should be deeply disappointing.
Of course the past is no guide for future performance - but it should certainly give pause for thought.
Agree on Matt Zarb-Cousin - tho he should have posted it himself, rather than leaving it to Guido...
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One revolt the government should back down over:
https://theguardian.com/uk-news/2018/may/04/may-commons-defeat-fixed-odds-betting-terminals0 -
They are really pushing for a £100 stake limit? Ridiculous!CarlottaVance said:One revolt the government should back down over:
https://theguardian.com/uk-news/2018/may/04/may-commons-defeat-fixed-odds-betting-terminals0 -
Sir John Curtice' take on the LE:
The Liberal Democrats on average enjoyed a modest advance of three points on their 2014 vote. But the party’s performance in the local elections that year was one of its worst ever. Meanwhile, at 16 per cent, the party’s projected share is a couple of points down on its performance in last year’s county council elections. Such a modest tally can hardly be regarded as evidence that the party has finally begun to turn the corner following its disastrous loss of support during the years of coalition with the Conservatives.
However, what will particularly encourage the party is that it performed best in wards where four years ago it shared first and second places with the Conservatives and where therefore it had some prospect of making gains. In many such wards, it was seemingly helped by a tactical squeeze on the Labour vote. That said, there is still little sign that the party’s opposition to Brexit is helping it to gain ground across the board amongst Remain voters – on average the party’s vote increased just as much in Leave-voting areas as in Remain-backing ones.
https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/local-elections-2018-results-labour-tory-lib-dem-brexit-a8336736.html0 -
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Sounds about right to me. These elections show a stalemate, apart from the extinction event of the Kippers. The projected NEV of 35/35/14 does match the polls which seem not far off last years figures, albeit with the LDs doing better in the locals as usual. This is a base to buuild on, as national byelections look sparse for the future. That kipper vote went about 50% Tory and 50% other parties, much as it did last GE.CarlottaVance said:FPT - Stephen Fisher (before final results):
Opposition parties normally win local elections. Since records began, albeit only since 1982, the oppositions that have gone on to win the next general election have won double digit leads in all the preceding local elections, starting with those in the immediate post-election year. Not only is Labour far from having a 10-point lead, the fact that it has no lead at all should be deeply disappointing.
Some Labour supporters may comfort themselves with the observation that the 11 point Tory lead in the PNS at last year’s local elections collapsed within the space of a month to a 2.5 point general election lead. That experience was a salutary lesson that public opinion can change dramatically. But that does not mean that we should expect the Conservatives to run a similarly disastrous campaign in the future.
While Labour did poorly, the Conservatives cannot rest easy. Their performance does not indicate that they would most likely regain their majority at the next general election.
https://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/politics/local-elections-the-key-numbers-crunched
I cannot see it changing much for present. Both May and Corbyn are wounded but secure, and Vince can soon step down with honour. Brexit may break the deadlock, and surely new leaders will contest the next GE. Picking new leaders and either could win.0 -
Are there actual numbers on the way the UKIP vote split? Very hard to tell one way or another as you can't be sure the same people are voting in both elections.Foxy said:
Sounds about right to me. These elections show a stalemate, apart from the extinction event of the Kippers. The projected NEV of 35/35/14 does match the polls which seem not far off last years figures, albeit with the LDs doing better in the locals as usual. This is a base to buuild on, as national byelections look sparse for the future. That kipper vote went about 50% Tory and 50% other parties, much as it did last GE.CarlottaVance said:FPT - Stephen Fisher (before final results):
Opposition parties normally win local elections. Since records began, albeit only since 1982, the oppositions that have gone on to win the next general election have won double digit leads in all the preceding local elections, starting with those in the immediate post-election year. Not only is Labour far from having a 10-point lead, the fact that it has no lead at all should be deeply disappointing.
Some Labour supporters may comfort themselves with the observation that the 11 point Tory lead in the PNS at last year’s local elections collapsed within the space of a month to a 2.5 point general election lead. That experience was a salutary lesson that public opinion can change dramatically. But that does not mean that we should expect the Conservatives to run a similarly disastrous campaign in the future.
While Labour did poorly, the Conservatives cannot rest easy. Their performance does not indicate that they would most likely regain their majority at the next general election.
https://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/politics/local-elections-the-key-numbers-crunched
I cannot see it changing much for present. Both May and Corbyn are wounded but secure, and Vince can soon step down with honour. Brexit may break the deadlock, and surely new leaders will contest the next GE. Picking new leaders and either could win.0 -
"They are really pushing for a £100 stake limit? Ridiculous!"
No, I think the plan was for a £30 limit (the current limit is £100, and £30 wouldn't change them too fundamentally). But MPs want to neuter the machines with a £2 limit instead.0 -
I fail to see what value those machines have, apart from as a source of revenue for the bookmakers. A £2 limit is generous.flubadub said:"They are really pushing for a £100 stake limit? Ridiculous!"
No, I think the plan was for a £30 limit (the current limit is £100, and £30 wouldn't change them too fundamentally). But MPs want to neuter the machines with a £2 limit instead.0 -
They don't serve any value except shareholder.
The thing is they are basically Las Vegas on every High Street, and legalized by accident rather than design and suddenly the bookmakers are making billions of pounds from them.
Naturally they are resistant to change.0 -
They don't serve any value except shareholder.
The thing is they are basically Las Vegas on every High Street, and legalized by accident rather than design and suddenly the bookmakers are making billions of pounds from them.
Naturally they are resistant to change.0 -
Gaining 62 seats best since 1971? Owen wants to take a look back at the 90s. Labour gained 1800 seats in 1995.CarlottaVance said:0 -
That was New Labour the "Tories"RobD said:
Gaining 62 seats best since 1971? Owen wants to take a look back at the 90s. Labour gained 1800 seats in 1995.CarlottaVance said:0 -
Doesn't that only give us a sample size of 2, which seems a bit small to make any calls off.CarlottaVance said:
Stephen Fisher:TheJezziah said:I don't buy into this idea that you need some incredible local election results otherwise you will lose the next general election.
Edit: *I did laugh at Matt Zarb in his MAGA hat...
Opposition parties normally win local elections. Since records began, albeit only since 1982, the oppositions that have gone on to win the next general election have won double digit leads in all the preceding local elections, starting with those in the immediate post-election year. Not only is Labour far from having a 10-point lead, the fact that it has no lead at all should be deeply disappointing.
Of course the past is no guide for future performance - but it should certainly give pause for thought.
Agree on Matt Zarb-Cousin - tho he should have posted it himself, rather than leaving it to Guido...
Blair and then Cameron are the only changes of government, those changes of government also saw the governing party lose a substantial number of seats, Labour doesn't really need the Conservatives to lose that many seats.
If we want to see the kind of seat losses for the government and seat gains for the opposition that Blair and Cameron made, assuming the sample size of 2 give us an infallible rule, then we would need the kind of leads he is talking about.
For something like a Conservative drop of 50 seats and a Labour gain of say 70 seats we wouldn't need the leads of Cameron and Blair, that is for a majority government as well. If Labour fell short the SNP, PC and the Green MP would back a Labour government.
We'll agree to disagree on the other thing, starting to get a little circular.0 -
Just when we thought Owen Jones couldn't be any more of a twat....he pops up to demonstrate his Khmer Rouge credentials that Year Zero was 2010, when the evil Blairite regime was finally overthrown....CarlottaVance said:
(...and by the Tories, Owen......)0 -
I am perfectly content if Labour supporters view these results as 'great', or indeed 'the best since 1971'.....TheJezziah said:
Doesn't that only give us a sample size of 2, which seems a bit small to make any calls off.CarlottaVance said:
Stephen Fisher:TheJezziah said:I don't buy into this idea that you need some incredible local election results otherwise you will lose the next general election.
Edit: *I did laugh at Matt Zarb in his MAGA hat...
Opposition parties normally win local elections. Since records began, albeit only since 1982, the oppositions that have gone on to win the next general election have won double digit leads in all the preceding local elections, starting with those in the immediate post-election year. Not only is Labour far from having a 10-point lead, the fact that it has no lead at all should be deeply disappointing.
Of course the past is no guide for future performance - but it should certainly give pause for thought.
Agree on Matt Zarb-Cousin - tho he should have posted it himself, rather than leaving it to Guido...
Blair and then Cameron are the only changes of government, those changes of government also saw the governing party lose a substantial number of seats, Labour doesn't really need the Conservatives to lose that many seats.
If we want to see the kind of seat losses for the government and seat gains for the opposition that Blair and Cameron made, assuming the sample size of 2 give us an infallible rule, then we would need the kind of leads he is talking about.
For something like a Conservative drop of 50 seats and a Labour gain of say 70 seats we wouldn't need the leads of Cameron and Blair, that is for a majority government as well. If Labour fell short the SNP, PC and the Green MP would back a Labour government.
We'll agree to disagree on the other thing, starting to get a little circular.0 -
For the LibDems, there is clearly a very localised EU-based vote in SW London, quite possibly driven by a lot of the educated EU citizens who live there actually turning out in a local election. Richmond/Kingston/Merton account for 50 of the LibDem gains. And South Cambs, where something similar appears to have happened, accounts for another 20. There's your LibDem 'national recovery' right there. For everyone else in the country the story is simply that the LibDems have stopped losing. The same story as last year.
For Labour, the results should be worrying. Despite the government doing so badly, people aren't voting 'against' the government in local elections, so much as taking positions on the ongoing saga of Brexit. Labour is stuck on the Brexit fence and will lose support as soon as either of its feet approaches the grass on either side. Unless they can stay on the fence until Brexit goes pear shaped and restores the anti-government protest vote.
On antisemitism the issue is not so much individual racist party members, but that the party has sought to adopt the Muslim vote as a client group, and in so doing has bought into what it perceives as its agenda and interests, to the point that the distinction between the actions of Israel and of Jews is lost.0 -
I'm happy enough with them, I probably wouldn't say great. I'm guessing Owen got confused somewhere between local elections and london elections, with the first I understand probably being true and the latter not.CarlottaVance said:
I am perfectly content if Labour supporters view these results as 'great', or indeed 'the best since 1971'.....TheJezziah said:
Doesn't that only give us a sample size of 2, which seems a bit small to make any calls off.CarlottaVance said:
Stephen Fisher:TheJezziah said:I don't buy into this idea that you need some incredible local election results otherwise you will lose the next general election.
Edit: *I did laugh at Matt Zarb in his MAGA hat...
Opposition parties normally win local elections. Since records began, albeit only since 1982, the oppositions that have gone on to win the next general election have won double digit leads in all the preceding local elections, starting with those in the immediate post-election year. Not only is Labour far from having a 10-point lead, the fact that it has no lead at all should be deeply disappointing.
Of course the past is no guide for future performance - but it should certainly give pause for thought.
Agree on Matt Zarb-Cousin - tho he should have posted it himself, rather than leaving it to Guido...
Blair and then Cameron are the only changes of government, those changes of government also saw the governing party lose a substantial number of seats, Labour doesn't really need the Conservatives to lose that many seats.
If we want to see the kind of seat losses for the government and seat gains for the opposition that Blair and Cameron made, assuming the sample size of 2 give us an infallible rule, then we would need the kind of leads he is talking about.
For something like a Conservative drop of 50 seats and a Labour gain of say 70 seats we wouldn't need the leads of Cameron and Blair, that is for a majority government as well. If Labour fell short the SNP, PC and the Green MP would back a Labour government.
We'll agree to disagree on the other thing, starting to get a little circular.
Any idea that they could be used as part of a narrative to change the leadership or direction of the Labour party is probably going to fail, if you are content with that then that is some common ground for us at least!
The majority of labour supporters (I'm going to read that as voters) probably don't even have much of an opinion on the local elections overall or much of an idea how they compare to previous ones.
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Point is, on these same seats four years ago, even Ed Miliband managed a 2% lead.CarlottaVance said:
I am perfectly content if Labour supporters view these results as 'great', or indeed 'the best since 1971'.....TheJezziah said:
Doesn't that only give us a sample size of 2, which seems a bit small to make any calls off.CarlottaVance said:
Stephen Fisher:TheJezziah said:I don't buy into this idea that you need some incredible local election results otherwise you will lose the next general election.
Edit: *I did laugh at Matt Zarb in his MAGA hat...
Opposition parties normally win local elections. Since records began, albeit only since 1982, the oppositions that have gone on to win the next general election have won double digit leads in all the preceding local elections, starting with those in the immediate post-election year. Not only is Labour far from having a 10-point lead, the fact that it has no lead at all should be deeply disappointing.
Of course the past is no guide for future performance - but it should certainly give pause for thought.
Agree on Matt Zarb-Cousin - tho he should have posted it himself, rather than leaving it to Guido...
Blair and then Cameron are the only changes of government, those changes of government also saw the governing party lose a substantial number of seats, Labour doesn't really need the Conservatives to lose that many seats.
If we want to see the kind of seat losses for the government and seat gains for the opposition that Blair and Cameron made, assuming the sample size of 2 give us an infallible rule, then we would need the kind of leads he is talking about.
For something like a Conservative drop of 50 seats and a Labour gain of say 70 seats we wouldn't need the leads of Cameron and Blair, that is for a majority government as well. If Labour fell short the SNP, PC and the Green MP would back a Labour government.
We'll agree to disagree on the other thing, starting to get a little circular.
Ed Miliband.
Ed Miliband did a couple of points better than Jeremy Corbyn. Against the Tories.
Let that sink in, Owen.0 -
I gave my election report card for the parties yesterday as follows :
Con C- .. Lab C- .. LibDem B- .. Green C .. UKIP F
Having ingested the PB wisdom and lesser authorities (Curtice, BBC, Sky News and Mrs JackW) I have amended the scores on the doors accordingly :
Con C .. Lab D+ .. LibDem C+ .. Green C .. UKIP Expelled0 -
May I congratulate you? Labour's biggest problem is pithily captured in that one quote.TheJezziah said:I'm guessing Owen got confused somewhere between local elections and london elections
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The more interesting data would have been if they had shown the results for parties in more detail. The stat cited (40% for Tories and 32% of Labour) is people who cited *1* anti-Semitic statement out of 6.CarlottaVance said:On the anti-semitism question, those interested I suggest read the original report:
https://antisemitism.uk/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/Antisemitism-Barometer-2017.pdf
Rather than the Labour spun version which is often posted - and omits:
Labour Party supporters are less likely to be antisemitic than other voters, so the cause of British Jews’ discontentment with the Labour Party must be the way that it has very publicly failed to robustly deal with the antisemites in its ranks. This means that the Labour Party has fallen out of step with its core supporters, who are generally less likely to hold antisemitic beliefs.
Focussing instead on the first dozen words and ignoring the rest....
I’m not sure that anti-Semitism is a binary state but I could see that someone who endorses 1 statement might be seen as having “unsavoury opinions” while someone who endorses all 6 is an out and out Jew hater.
It would be interesting to see if the parties have a similar spread of opinions. It’s a plausible hypothesis, for example, that the Tories have more 1/6 while Labour has more nutters on 5 or 6/6.
Is there a breakdown of the data anywhere?0 -
OT. Just heard the seeding of the story that led to Trump's defence of US gun laws. It started with a doctor in a London hospital being interviewed by John Humphrys complaining about overwork. The interview went something like this .....
JH. Are you saying you are dealing with so much knife crime that it's affecting your workload
Doctor. Yes. It's sometimes like a war zone.
JH. Really? A "war zone!"
Doctor. Well some of my colleagues who have woked in war zones have called it that.
JH. Well..well...
The Daily Mail then picked it up and wrote a story about it with a lurid headline........
.....The baton passed by the Mail was then picked up by Trump who included it in a speech which ended with the words 'there will never be gun control while I am President' ....
The damage to the UK's reputation though huge is as nothing compared to those who will be damaged by the guns that will now not be controlled (in part) because of the story.
A beautiful example of how the once honourable communications industry has now been twisted out of shape
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Owen's not dumb enough to confuse the too.ydoethur said:
May I congratulate you? Labour's biggest problem is pithily captured in that one quote.TheJezziah said:I'm guessing Owen got confused somewhere between local elections and london elections
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Good morning, everyone.
I think a lot depends on (from Labour's side) how the claims of anti-Semitism etc are handled. Right now, the party looks less than wonderful for Jews, and Corbyn's preferred to side with the Russian state over the United Kingdom. These aren't good looks.
However, they may benefit from Conservative mediocrity and, critically, EU fallout, so it's very hard to try and call the next election.0 -
Isn't he?RobD said:
Owen's not dumb enough to confuse the too.ydoethur said:
May I congratulate you? Labour's biggest problem is pithily captured in that one quote.TheJezziah said:I'm guessing Owen got confused somewhere between local elections and london elections
In fairness he has improved a lot since he started, when his ramblings were mostly incoherent and inaccurate rubbish that would have been failed had they been submitted as second year essays at Northumbria University.
However, while he does clarify in his next tweet, giving the unfortunate impression that all Labour care about is London is merely reinforcing the idea that everyone outside London is seen as less important.0 -
Applying "honourable" to the Daily Mail either historically or presently is a stretch !! ..Roger said:OT. Just heard the seeding of the story that led to Trump's defence of US gun laws. It started with a doctor in a London hospital being interviewed by John Humphrys complaining about overwork. The interview went something like this .....
JH. Are you saying you are dealing with so much knife crime that it's affecting your workload
Doctor. Yes. It's sometimes like a war zone.
JH. Really? A "war zone!"
Doctor. Well some of my colleagues who have woked in war zones have called it that.
JH. Well..well...
The Daily Mail then picked it up and wrote a story about it with a lurid headline........
.....The baton passed by the Mail was then picked up by Trump who included it in a speech which ended with the words 'there will never be gun control while I am President' ....
The damage to the UK's reputation though huge is as nothing compared to those who will be damaged by the guns that will now not be controlled (in part) because of the story.
A beautiful example of how the once honourable communications industry has now been twisted out of shape
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Who was it that wrote
“You cannot seek to bribe or twist, thank God! the British journalist.
But seeing what the man will do unbribed, there’s no occasion to.”?0 -
Humbert Wolfe.Fysics_Teacher said:Who was it that wrote
“You cannot seek to bribe or twist, thank God! the British journalist.
But seeing what the man will do unbribed, there’s no occasion to.”?0 -
Who died in 1940 according to Wikipedia, suggesting that there wasn’t some golden age of honourable journalism in the past.ydoethur said:
Humbert Wolfe.Fysics_Teacher said:Who was it that wrote
“You cannot seek to bribe or twist, thank God! the British journalist.
But seeing what the man will do unbribed, there’s no occasion to.”?0 -
Well quite, and confiding a view to a pollster is a different thing from putting it in a tweet with the words "Jewish c--t" in it. I don't buy this "same problem different ways of dealing with it" line. I think Corbyn and Milne buy in to an ideology with anti semitism at its core.Charles said:
The more interesting data would have been if they had shown the results for parties in more detail. The stat cited (40% for Tories and 32% of Labour) is people who cited *1* anti-Semitic statement out of 6.CarlottaVance said:On the anti-semitism question, those interested I suggest read the original report:
https://antisemitism.uk/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/Antisemitism-Barometer-2017.pdf
Rather than the Labour spun version which is often posted - and omits:
Labour Party supporters are less likely to be antisemitic than other voters, so the cause of British Jews’ discontentment with the Labour Party must be the way that it has very publicly failed to robustly deal with the antisemites in its ranks. This means that the Labour Party has fallen out of step with its core supporters, who are generally less likely to hold antisemitic beliefs.
Focussing instead on the first dozen words and ignoring the rest....
I’m not sure that anti-Semitism is a binary state but I could see that someone who endorses 1 statement might be seen as having “unsavoury opinions” while someone who endorses all 6 is an out and out Jew hater.
It would be interesting to see if the parties have a similar spread of opinions. It’s a plausible hypothesis, for example, that the Tories have more 1/6 while Labour has more nutters on 5 or 6/6.
Is there a breakdown of the data anywhere?0 -
The resumes and analyses, particularly for London, have not taken into account the excellent overnight result for Labour in Tower Hamlets, where they made 20 seat gains. They now have no net loss of councils overall. The problem for Labour is that expectations were over-hyped, and they have fallen short in that regard, but overall their performance is acceptable.MarqueeMark said:
Just when we thought Owen Jones couldn't be any more of a twat....he pops up to demonstrate his Khmer Rouge credentials that Year Zero was 2010, when the evil Blairite regime was finally overthrown....CarlottaVance said:
(...and by the Tories, Owen......)
Labour have made gains compared to 2014, which was a pre-election year when they were also in opposition. However, they do have a problem in the English Midlands (apart from Brum), where there are a large number of marginal parliamentary seats and where most of the urban areas are very non-cosmopolitan.
The only real failure is for UKIP, which is now "dead in the water", and can only hope to revive if Brexit isn't delivered or there is BINO.0 -
What happens in the hellhole that is Tower Hamlets has zero impact on the rest of the country. Thankfully.daodao said:
The resumes and analyses, particularly for London, have not taken into account the excellent overnight result for Labour in Tower Hamlets, where they made 20 seat gains. They now have no net loss of councils overall. The problem for Labour is that expectations were over-hyped, and they have fallen short in that regard, but overall their performance is acceptable.MarqueeMark said:
Just when we thought Owen Jones couldn't be any more of a twat....he pops up to demonstrate his Khmer Rouge credentials that Year Zero was 2010, when the evil Blairite regime was finally overthrown....CarlottaVance said:
(...and by the Tories, Owen......)
Labour have made gains compared to 2014, which was a pre-election year when they were also in opposition. However, they do have a problem in the English Midlands (apart from Brum), where there are a large number of marginal parliamentary seats and where most of the urban areas are very non-cosmopolitan.
The only real failure is for UKIP, which is now "dead in the water", and can only hope to revive if Brexit isn't delivered or there is BINO.0 -
Obviously there is a degree of churn, but that 2014 kipper vote clearly did not all go Tory. Eyeballing last years votes and this years it does seem that the largest share went Tory, but this was offset by substantial numbers that chose other parties.RobD said:
Are there actual numbers on the way the UKIP vote split? Very hard to tell one way or another as you can't be sure the same people are voting in both elections.Foxy said:
Sounds about right to me. These elections show a stalemate, apart from the extinction event of the Kippers. The projected NEV of 35/35/14 does match the polls which seem not far off last years figures, albeit with the LDs doing better in the locals as usual. This is a base to buuild on, as national byelections look sparse for the future. That kipper vote went about 50% Tory and 50% other parties, much as it did last GE.CarlottaVance said:FPT - Stephen Fisher (before final results):
Opposition parties normally win local elections. Since records began, albeit only since 1982, the oppositions that have gone on to win the next general election have won double digit leads in all the preceding local elections, starting with those in the immediate post-election year. Not only is Labour far from having a 10-point lead, the fact that it has no lead at all should be deeply disappointing.
Some Labour supporters may comfort themselves with the observation that the 11 point Tory lead in the PNS at last year’s local elections collapsed within the space of a month to a 2.5 point general election lead. That experience was a salutary lesson that public opinion can change dramatically. But that does not mean that we should expect the Conservatives to run a similarly disastrous campaign in the future.
While Labour did poorly, the Conservatives cannot rest easy. Their performance does not indicate that they would most likely regain their majority at the next general election.
https://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/politics/local-elections-the-key-numbers-crunched
I cannot see it changing much for present. Both May and Corbyn are wounded but secure, and Vince can soon step down with honour. Brexit may break the deadlock, and surely new leaders will contest the next GE. Picking new leaders and either could win.0 -
Mr. Dao, I think UKIP's done even in the BINO scenario you raise.
Under those conditions, I'd expect Farage and Banks to form a new party, with a structure designed to minimise infighting and dissent. And, unlike the many other new parties we've seen, it'd have both a big hitter and funding right from the start.0 -
Which is richly ironic given Milne at least has always been quite comfortable being called a Marxist. Mind you I suppose the same was true of Stalin and that didn't stop him launching anti-Semitic purges.Ishmael_Z said:
Well quite, and confiding a view to a pollster is a different thing from putting it in a tweet with the words "Jewish c--t" in it. I don't buy this "same problem different ways of dealing with it" line. I think Corbyn and Milne buy in to an ideology with anti semitism at its core.Charles said:
The more interesting data would have been if they had shown the results for parties in more detail. The stat cited (40% for Tories and 32% of Labour) is people who cited *1* anti-Semitic statement out of 6.CarlottaVance said:On the anti-semitism question, those interested I suggest read the original report:
https://antisemitism.uk/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/Antisemitism-Barometer-2017.pdf
Rather than the Labour spun version which is often posted - and omits:
Labour Party supporters are less likely to be antisemitic than other voters, so the cause of British Jews’ discontentment with the Labour Party must be the way that it has very publicly failed to robustly deal with the antisemites in its ranks. This means that the Labour Party has fallen out of step with its core supporters, who are generally less likely to hold antisemitic beliefs.
Focussing instead on the first dozen words and ignoring the rest....
I’m not sure that anti-Semitism is a binary state but I could see that someone who endorses 1 statement might be seen as having “unsavoury opinions” while someone who endorses all 6 is an out and out Jew hater.
It would be interesting to see if the parties have a similar spread of opinions. It’s a plausible hypothesis, for example, that the Tories have more 1/6 while Labour has more nutters on 5 or 6/6.
Is there a breakdown of the data anywhere?0 -
So not 50/50?Foxy said:
Obviously there is a degree of churn, but that 2014 kipper vote clearly did not all go Tory. Eyeballing last years votes and this years it does seem that the largest share went Tory, but this was offset by substantial numbers that chose other parties.RobD said:
Are there actual numbers on the way the UKIP vote split? Very hard to tell one way or another as you can't be sure the same people are voting in both elections.Foxy said:
Sounds about right to me. These elections show a stalemate, apart from the extinction event of the Kippers. The projected NEV of 35/35/14 does match the polls which seem not far off last years figures, albeit with the LDs doing better in the locals as usual. This is a base to buuild on, as national byelections look sparse for the future. That kipper vote went about 50% Tory and 50% other parties, much as it did last GE.CarlottaVance said:FPT - Stephen Fisher (before final results):
Opposition parties normally win local elections. Since records began, albeit only since 1982, the oppositions that have gone on to win the next general election have won double digit leads in all the preceding local elections, starting with those in the immediate post-election year. Not only is Labour far from having a 10-point lead, the fact that it has no lead at all should be deeply disappointing.
Some Labour supporters may comfort themselves with the observation that the 11 point Tory lead in the PNS at last year’s local elections collapsed within the space of a month to a 2.5 point general election lead. That experience was a salutary lesson that public opinion can change dramatically. But that does not mean that we should expect the Conservatives to run a similarly disastrous campaign in the future.
While Labour did poorly, the Conservatives cannot rest easy. Their performance does not indicate that they would most likely regain their majority at the next general election.
https://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/politics/local-elections-the-key-numbers-crunched
I cannot see it changing much for present. Both May and Corbyn are wounded but secure, and Vince can soon step down with honour. Brexit may break the deadlock, and surely new leaders will contest the next GE. Picking new leaders and either could win.0 -
Totally agree on the last paragraph - Labour is becoming increasingly the party of factions and lord help you if you are in the wrong group. I wonder if Owen Jones understands the real hard left view on homosexuality - let alone that of some Muslim fundamentalists.IanB2 said:For the LibDems, there is clearly a very localised EU-based vote in SW London, quite possibly driven by a lot of the educated EU citizens who live there actually turning out in a local election. Richmond/Kingston/Merton account for 50 of the LibDem gains. And South Cambs, where something similar appears to have happened, accounts for another 20. There's your LibDem 'national recovery' right there. For everyone else in the country the story is simply that the LibDems have stopped losing. The same story as last year.
For Labour, the results should be worrying. Despite the government doing so badly, people aren't voting 'against' the government in local elections, so much as taking positions on the ongoing saga of Brexit. Labour is stuck on the Brexit fence and will lose support as soon as either of its feet approaches the grass on either side. Unless they can stay on the fence until Brexit goes pear shaped and restores the anti-government protest vote.
On antisemitism the issue is not so much individual racist party members, but that the party has sought to adopt the Muslim vote as a client group, and in so doing has bought into what it perceives as its agenda and interests, to the point that the distinction between the actions of Israel and of Jews is lost.0 -
I'm not even convinced that Labour can do much better than this in London and even on yesterday's vote in Wandsworth they'd have lost Battersea back to the blues.ydoethur said:
May I congratulate you? Labour's biggest problem is pithily captured in that one quote.TheJezziah said:I'm guessing Owen got confused somewhere between local elections and london elections
0 -
Marx, Lenin and Trotsky are sometimes mentioned, I think that is the trio McDonnell quoted at one point, are some of the people brought up as part of this ideology... often as part of some right wing propaganda to imply that Britain is going to become communist.. occasionally as infiltrators, although that is usually just 'the trots' apparently.Ishmael_Z said:
Well quite, and confiding a view to a pollster is a different thing from putting it in a tweet with the words "Jewish c--t" in it. I don't buy this "same problem different ways of dealing with it" line. I think Corbyn and Milne buy in to an ideology with anti semitism at its core.Charles said:
The more interesting data would have been if they had shown the results for parties in more detail. The stat cited (40% for Tories and 32% of Labour) is people who cited *1* anti-Semitic statement out of 6.CarlottaVance said:On the anti-semitism question, those interested I suggest read the original report:
https://antisemitism.uk/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/Antisemitism-Barometer-2017.pdf
Rather than the Labour spun version which is often posted - and omits:
Labour Party supporters are less likely to be antisemitic than other voters, so the cause of British Jews’ discontentment with the Labour Party must be the way that it has very publicly failed to robustly deal with the antisemites in its ranks. This means that the Labour Party has fallen out of step with its core supporters, who are generally less likely to hold antisemitic beliefs.
Focussing instead on the first dozen words and ignoring the rest....
I’m not sure that anti-Semitism is a binary state but I could see that someone who endorses 1 statement might be seen as having “unsavoury opinions” while someone who endorses all 6 is an out and out Jew hater.
It would be interesting to see if the parties have a similar spread of opinions. It’s a plausible hypothesis, for example, that the Tories have more 1/6 while Labour has more nutters on 5 or 6/6.
Is there a breakdown of the data anywhere?
The problem with this theory and I have seen cyclefree go down this left wing ideology equals anti semitic route, is just how many Jewish people there are involved. The Marx, Lenin and Trotsky trio for example all I understand are Jewish or have some Jewish heritage (happy to be corrected)
I'm not sure Corbyn or the rest of them are actually all that far left or going to impose some kind of communism in the UK but the people often linked to them or sometimes mentioned and used against them as part of this idea of them being really far left are often Jewish, or have Jewish heritage which I assume is Jewish enough for the sake of this debate.
Edit: I swear I posted this before I saw Ydoethur's reply0 -
A bizarre report . One third opinion. One third legitimate polling. One third propaganda. For example "The reality is poverty is a major problem for British Jews and data suggests British Jews are disproportionately philanthropic". Followed by one of their seven tests for antisemitism "British Jews consider themselves better than other people"CarlottaVance said:On the anti-semitism question, those interested I suggest read the original report:
https://antisemitism.uk/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/Antisemitism-Barometer-2017.pdf
Rather than the Labour spun version which is often posted - and omits:
Labour Party supporters are less likely to be antisemitic than other voters, so the cause of British Jews’ discontentment with the Labour Party must be the way that it has very publicly failed to robustly deal with the antisemites in its ranks. This means that the Labour Party has fallen out of step with its core supporters, who are generally less likely to hold antisemitic beliefs.
Focussing instead on the first dozen words and ignoring the rest....0 -
At a guess Corbyn fits into your hard left group?felix said:
Totally agree on the last paragraph - Labour is becoming increasingly the party of factions and lord help you if you are in the wrong group. I wonder if Owen Jones understands the real hard left view on homosexuality - let alone that of some Muslim fundamentalists.IanB2 said:For the LibDems, there is clearly a very localised EU-based vote in SW London, quite possibly driven by a lot of the educated EU citizens who live there actually turning out in a local election. Richmond/Kingston/Merton account for 50 of the LibDem gains. And South Cambs, where something similar appears to have happened, accounts for another 20. There's your LibDem 'national recovery' right there. For everyone else in the country the story is simply that the LibDems have stopped losing. The same story as last year.
For Labour, the results should be worrying. Despite the government doing so badly, people aren't voting 'against' the government in local elections, so much as taking positions on the ongoing saga of Brexit. Labour is stuck on the Brexit fence and will lose support as soon as either of its feet approaches the grass on either side. Unless they can stay on the fence until Brexit goes pear shaped and restores the anti-government protest vote.
On antisemitism the issue is not so much individual racist party members, but that the party has sought to adopt the Muslim vote as a client group, and in so doing has bought into what it perceives as its agenda and interests, to the point that the distinction between the actions of Israel and of Jews is lost.
Given he was fighting for gay rights before most I'm pretty sure he'd be quite happy with them. If you want someone to demonise Muslims using the cover of gay rights you are probably after a Le Pen type.
Or that new UKIP split off party if you want something domestic.
I'm not sure either would really be Owen's cup of tea...0 -
Far right and far left parties are pretty much intrinsically fissile and fractious. The seed of splitting is the insistence of ideological purity, unwillingness to compromise and leadership cults.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Dao, I think UKIP's done even in the BINO scenario you raise.
Under those conditions, I'd expect Farage and Banks to form a new party, with a structure designed to minimise infighting and dissent. And, unlike the many other new parties we've seen, it'd have both a big hitter and funding right from the start.
Any new right wing party will follow the same path, and ultimately it will be the downfall of Corbynism too.0 -
Not Lenin. The other two were Jewish, as were other leading RSDLP figures e.g. Kamenev, Zinoviev, Molotov (although he came later and his link was by marriage) and Martov, leader of the Mensheviks. That was also true of German socialists e.g. Rosa Luxembourg, leader of the Spartacists.TheJezziah said:
Marx, Lenin and Trotsky are sometimes mentioned, I think that is the trio McDonnell quoted at one point, are some of the people brought up as part of this ideology... often as part of some right wing propaganda to imply that Britain is going to become communist.. occasionally as infiltrators, although that is usually just 'the trots' apparently.
The problem with this theory and I have seen cyclefree go down this left wing ideology equals anti semitic route, is just how many Jewish people there are involved. The Marx, Lenin and Trotsky trio for example all I understand are Jewish or have some Jewish heritage (happy to be corrected)
I'm not sure Corbyn or the rest of them are actually all that far left or going to impose some kind of communism in the UK but the people often linked to them or sometimes mentioned and used against them as part of this idea of them being really far left are often Jewish, or have Jewish heritage which I assume is Jewish enough for the sake of this debate.
Edit: I swear I posted this before I saw Ydoethur's reply
That is one reason why anti-Communism was often bound up with anti-Semitism in the 1920s and 1930s - most notoriously in the case of rather too many supporters of a certain A. Hitler.
We will take your word for the edit!0 -
UKIP had a chance to whither on the vine a few weeks back. One has to wonder what those who bunged it a few hundred thousand quid back then to save it must be thinking, as they see the last rites read over the party.daodao said:
The resumes and analyses, particularly for London, have not taken into account the excellent overnight result for Labour in Tower Hamlets, where they made 20 seat gains. They now have no net loss of councils overall. The problem for Labour is that expectations were over-hyped, and they have fallen short in that regard, but overall their performance is acceptable.MarqueeMark said:
Just when we thought Owen Jones couldn't be any more of a twat....he pops up to demonstrate his Khmer Rouge credentials that Year Zero was 2010, when the evil Blairite regime was finally overthrown....CarlottaVance said:
(...and by the Tories, Owen......)
Labour have made gains compared to 2014, which was a pre-election year when they were also in opposition. However, they do have a problem in the English Midlands (apart from Brum), where there are a large number of marginal parliamentary seats and where most of the urban areas are very non-cosmopolitan.
The only real failure is for UKIP, which is now "dead in the water", and can only hope to revive if Brexit isn't delivered or there is BINO.0 -
Dr. Foxy, maybe. Don't forget that factions often unify against a common enemy and only splinter when they have to unite around a positive vision instead of opposing a negative one. UKIP achieved its strategic objective (the threat to it now is coming from the UK political class trying to frustrate the decision of the UK electorate, a potentially very serious problem for our domestic politics).0
-
I reckon about 50% Tory, 15% continuity Kipper, 25% Labour 10% other.RobD said:
So not 50/50?Foxy said:
Obviously there is a degree of churn, but that 2014 kipper vote clearly did not all go Tory. Eyeballing last years votes and this years it does seem that the largest share went Tory, but this was offset by substantial numbers that chose other parties.RobD said:
Are there actual numbers on the way the UKIP vote split? Very hard to tell one way or another as you can't be sure the same people are voting in both elections.Foxy said:
Sounds about right to me. These elections show a stalemate, apart from the extinction event of the Kippers. The projected NEV of 35/35/14 does match the polls which seem not far off last years figures, albeit with the LDs doing better in the locals as usual. This is a base to buuild on, as national byelections look sparse for the future. That kipper vote went about 50% Tory and 50% other parties, much as it did last GE.CarlottaVance said:FPT - Stephen Fisher (before final results):
Opposition parties normally win local elections. Since records began, albeit only since 1982, the oppositions that have gone on to win the next general election have won double digit leads in all the preceding local elections, starting with those in the immediate post-election year. Not only is Labour far from having a 10-point lead, the fact that it has no lead at all should be deeply disappointing.
Some Labour supporters may comfort themselves with the observation that the 11 point Tory lead in the PNS at last year’s local elections collapsed within the space of a month to a 2.5 point general election lead. That experience was a salutary lesson that public opinion can change dramatically. But that does not mean that we should expect the Conservatives to run a similarly disastrous campaign in the future.
While Labour did poorly, the Conservatives cannot rest easy. Their performance does not indicate that they would most likely regain their majority at the next general election.
https://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/politics/local-elections-the-key-numbers-crunched
I cannot see it changing much for present. Both May and Corbyn are wounded but secure, and Vince can soon step down with honour. Brexit may break the deadlock, and surely new leaders will contest the next GE. Picking new leaders and either could win.
These being net effects, obviously some churn.0 -
And while we are on the subject of Karl Marx, today is the 200th anniversary of his birth. He was 100% ethnically Jewish, but his parents had converted to Protestant Christianity before his birth.ydoethur said:
Which is richly ironic given Milne at least has always been quite comfortable being called a Marxist. Mind you I suppose the same was true of Stalin and that didn't stop him launching anti-Semitic purges.Ishmael_Z said:
Well quite, and confiding a view to a pollster is a different thing from putting it in a tweet with the words "Jewish c--t" in it. I don't buy this "same problem different ways of dealing with it" line. I think Corbyn and Milne buy in to an ideology with anti semitism at its core.Charles said:
The more interesting data would have been if they had shown the results for parties in more detail. The stat cited (40% for Tories and 32% of Labour) is people who cited *1* anti-Semitic statement out of 6.CarlottaVance said:On the anti-semitism question, those interested I suggest read the original report:
https://antisemitism.uk/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/Antisemitism-Barometer-2017.pdf
Rather than the Labour spun version which is often posted - and omits:
Labour Party supporters are less likely to be antisemitic than other voters, so the cause of British Jews’ discontentment with the Labour Party must be the way that it has very publicly failed to robustly deal with the antisemites in its ranks. This means that the Labour Party has fallen out of step with its core supporters, who are generally less likely to hold antisemitic beliefs.
Focussing instead on the first dozen words and ignoring the rest....
I’m not sure that anti-Semitism is a binary state but I could see that someone who endorses 1 statement might be seen as having “unsavoury opinions” while someone who endorses all 6 is an out and out Jew hater.
It would be interesting to see if the parties have a similar spread of opinions. It’s a plausible hypothesis, for example, that the Tories have more 1/6 while Labour has more nutters on 5 or 6/6.
Is there a breakdown of the data anywhere?0 -
The YouGov tables:Charles said:
The more interesting data would have been if they had shown the results for parties in more detail. The stat cited (40% for Tories and 32% of Labour) is people who cited *1* anti-Semitic statement out of 6.CarlottaVance said:On the anti-semitism question, those interested I suggest read the original report:
https://antisemitism.uk/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/Antisemitism-Barometer-2017.pdf
Rather than the Labour spun version which is often posted - and omits:
Labour Party supporters are less likely to be antisemitic than other voters, so the cause of British Jews’ discontentment with the Labour Party must be the way that it has very publicly failed to robustly deal with the antisemites in its ranks. This means that the Labour Party has fallen out of step with its core supporters, who are generally less likely to hold antisemitic beliefs.
Focussing instead on the first dozen words and ignoring the rest....
I’m not sure that anti-Semitism is a binary state but I could see that someone who endorses 1 statement might be seen as having “unsavoury opinions” while someone who endorses all 6 is an out and out Jew hater.
It would be interesting to see if the parties have a similar spread of opinions. It’s a plausible hypothesis, for example, that the Tories have more 1/6 while Labour has more nutters on 5 or 6/6.
Is there a breakdown of the data anywhere?
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/bs0i5dmt7s/CampaignAgainstAntisemitismResults_170803_JewishOpinions.pdf
But they don't break out the data in the way you suggest. The highest single score among all parties voters on anti semitic statements was for British Jewish people chase money more than other British people". (Con 27, with Lab on 14 & Lib Dems on 19), but on other questions there was a tie: "Jewish people can be trusted just as much as other British people in business".(77 / 75 / 79).
Among British Jews their biggest concern is anti-semitism (primary and secondary concerns) is from Islamism (79%), followed by the Far Left (72%) then the Far Right (37%)0 -
I have a book of his collected works at my bedside.daodao said:
And while we are on the subject of Karl Marx, today is the 200th anniversary of his birth.ydoethur said:
Which is richly ironic given Milne at least has always been quite comfortable being called a Marxist. Mind you I suppose the same was true of Stalin and that didn't stop him launching anti-Semitic purges.Ishmael_Z said:
Well quite, and confiding a view to a pollster is a different thing from putting it in a tweet with the words "Jewish c--t" in it. I don't buy this "same problem different ways of dealing with it" line. I think Corbyn and Milne buy in to an ideology with anti semitism at its core.Charles said:
The more interesting data would have been if they had shown the results for parties in more detail. The stat cited (40% for Tories and 32% of Labour) is people who cited *1* anti-Semitic statement out of 6.CarlottaVance said:On the anti-semitism question, those interested I suggest read the original report:
https://antisemitism.uk/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/Antisemitism-Barometer-2017.pdf
Rather than the Labour spun version which is often posted - and omits:
Labour Party supporters are less likely to be antisemitic than other voters, so the cause of British Jews’ discontentment with the Labour Party must be the way that it has very publicly failed to robustly deal with the antisemites in its ranks. This means that the Labour Party has fallen out of step with its core supporters, who are generally less likely to hold antisemitic beliefs.
Focussing instead on the first dozen words and ignoring the rest....
I’m not sure that anti-Semitism is a binary state but I could see that someone who endorses 1 statement might be seen as having “unsavoury opinions” while someone who endorses all 6 is an out and out Jew hater.
It would be interesting to see if the parties have a similar spread of opinions. It’s a plausible hypothesis, for example, that the Tories have more 1/6 while Labour has more nutters on 5 or 6/6.
Is there a breakdown of the data anywhere?
(Really!)0 -
Spin aside, Labour is doing much better in the south east outside London than it has for decades. It was so far behind that I doubt it will make any impact in terms of winning seats at Westminster. But to have for example 5 Labour councillors in Worthing is quite something, and not something anyone would have predicted only a few years ago. I have a feeling the wheel is still in spin.0
-
The story of Brexit, not just UKIP.Morris_Dancer said:Dr. Foxy, maybe. Don't forget that factions often unify against a common enemy and only splinter when they have to unite around a positive vision instead of opposing a negative one. UKIP achieved its strategic objective (the threat to it now is coming from the UK political class trying to frustrate the decision of the UK electorate, a potentially very serious problem for our domestic politics).
0 -
I wonder what he would have made of Conmunism as it was attempted in practice. Old Soviet joke about the impact of his ideas:daodao said:
And while we are on the subject of Karl Marx, today is the 200th anniversary of his birth.ydoethur said:
Which is richly ironic given Milne at least has always been quite comfortable being called a Marxist. Mind you I suppose the same was true of Stalin and that didn't stop him launching anti-Semitic purges.Ishmael_Z said:
Well quite, and confiding a view to a pollster is a different thing from putting it in a tweet with the words "Jewish c--t" in it. I don't buy this "same problem different ways of dealing with it" line. I think Corbyn and Milne buy in to an ideology with anti semitism at its core.Charles said:
The more interesting data would have been if they had shown the results for parties in more detail. The stat cited (40% for Tories and 32% of Labour) is people who cited *1* anti-Semitic statement out of 6.CarlottaVance said:On the anti-semitism question, those interested I suggest read the original report:
https://antisemitism.uk/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/Antisemitism-Barometer-2017.pdf
Rather than the Labour spun version which is often posted - and omits:
Labour Party supporters are less likely to be antisemitic than other voters, so the cause of British Jews’ discontentment with the Labour Party must be the way that it has very publicly failed to robustly deal with the antisemites in its ranks. This means that the Labour Party has fallen out of step with its core supporters, who are generally less likely to hold antisemitic beliefs.
Focussing instead on the first dozen words and ignoring the rest....
I’m not sure that anti-Semitism is a binary state but I could see that someone who endorses 1 statement might be seen as having “unsavoury opinions” while someone who endorses all 6 is an out and out Jew hater.
It would be interesting to see if the parties have a similar spread of opinions. It’s a plausible hypothesis, for example, that the Tories have more 1/6 while Labour has more nutters on 5 or 6/6.
Is there a breakdown of the data anywhere?
Karl Marx was resurrected and came to the USSR. He was shown factories, hospitals, cities and villages, etc. Finally, he requested to be allowed to make a speech on TV. The Politburo hesitated as they were afraid he might say something they wouldn’t approve. Marx promised he would say only one sentence. Under this condition, the Politburo agreed. Karl Marx uttered the following sentence: “Workers of all countries, forgive me."0 -
-
Lenin's maternal grandfather was Jewish.ydoethur said:
Not Lenin. The other two were Jewish, as were other leading RSDLP figures e.g. Kamenev, Zinoviev, Molotov (although he came later and his link was by marriage) and Martov, leader of the Mensheviks. That was also true of German socialists e.g. Rosa Luxembourg, leader of the Spartacists.TheJezziah said:
Marx, Lenin and Trotsky are sometimes mentioned, I think that is the trio McDonnell quoted at one point, are some of the people brought up as part of this ideology... often as part of some right wing propaganda to imply that Britain is going to become communist.. occasionally as infiltrators, although that is usually just 'the trots' apparently.
The problem with this theory and I have seen cyclefree go down this left wing ideology equals anti semitic route, is just how many Jewish people there are involved. The Marx, Lenin and Trotsky trio for example all I understand are Jewish or have some Jewish heritage (happy to be corrected)
I'm not sure Corbyn or the rest of them are actually all that far left or going to impose some kind of communism in the UK but the people often linked to them or sometimes mentioned and used against them as part of this idea of them being really far left are often Jewish, or have Jewish heritage which I assume is Jewish enough for the sake of this debate.
Edit: I swear I posted this before I saw Ydoethur's reply
That is one reason why anti-Communism was often bound up with anti-Semitism in the 1920s and 1930s - most notoriously in the case of rather too many supporters of a certain A. Hitler.
We will take your word for the edit!0 -
There is something in that. Far right and left parties are far more often by the urge to destroy than to build, which as you say requires uniting around positive vision.Morris_Dancer said:Dr. Foxy, maybe. Don't forget that factions often unify against a common enemy and only splinter when they have to unite around a positive vision instead of opposing a negative one. UKIP achieved its strategic objective (the threat to it now is coming from the UK political class trying to frustrate the decision of the UK electorate, a potentially very serious problem for our domestic politics).
As I am sure you are aware, I do not support attempts to halt Brexit, from July 2017 I supported WTO Brexit. Only when the promised fruits of Brexit prove to be illusory and the Brexiteers discredited, can we move on to a more constructive engagement with ourselves and the rest of the world.
The bitter dregs of Brexit are an essential part of the recovery process. Mostly Brexit will go with a whimper rather than a bang.0 -
Really? Never come across that before.daodao said:
Lenin's maternal grandfather was Jewish.ydoethur said:
Not Lenin. The other two were Jewish, as were other leading RSDLP figures e.g. Kamenev, Zinoviev, Molotov (although he came later and his link was by marriage) and Martov, leader of the Mensheviks. That was also true of German socialists e.g. Rosa Luxembourg, leader of the Spartacists.TheJezziah said:
Marx, Lenin and Trotsky are sometimes mentioned, I think that is the trio McDonnell quoted at one point, are some of the people brought up as part of this ideology... often as part of some right wing propaganda to imply that Britain is going to become communist.. occasionally as infiltrators, although that is usually just 'the trots' apparently.
The problem with this theory and I have seen cyclefree go down this left wing ideology equals anti semitic route, is just how many Jewish people there are involved. The Marx, Lenin and Trotsky trio for example all I understand are Jewish or have some Jewish heritage (happy to be corrected)
I'm not sure Corbyn or the rest of them are actually all that far left or going to impose some kind of communism in the UK but the people often linked to them or sometimes mentioned and used against them as part of this idea of them being really far left are often Jewish, or have Jewish heritage which I assume is Jewish enough for the sake of this debate.
Edit: I swear I posted this before I saw Ydoethur's reply
That is one reason why anti-Communism was often bound up with anti-Semitism in the 1920s and 1930s - most notoriously in the case of rather too many supporters of a certain A. Hitler.
We will take your word for the edit!
It doesn't make any substantial difference to the point either way, of course.0 -
Ahh thank you, I did see a list somewhere, think that Jewdas group put something out with a few of those names on read up a limited amount of Rosa but the rest mostly fleeting.ydoethur said:
Not Lenin. The other two were Jewish, as were other leading RSDLP figures e.g. Kamenev, Zinoviev, Molotov (although he came later and his link was by marriage) and Martov, leader of the Mensheviks. That was also true of German socialists e.g. Rosa Luxembourg, leader of the Spartacists.TheJezziah said:
Marx, Lenin and Trotsky are sometimes mentioned, I think that is the trio McDonnell quoted at one point, are some of the people brought up as part of this ideology... often as part of some right wing propaganda to imply that Britain is going to become communist.. occasionally as infiltrators, although that is usually just 'the trots' apparently.
The problem with this theory and I have seen cyclefree go down this left wing ideology equals anti semitic route, is just how many Jewish people there are involved. The Marx, Lenin and Trotsky trio for example all I understand are Jewish or have some Jewish heritage (happy to be corrected)
I'm not sure Corbyn or the rest of them are actually all that far left or going to impose some kind of communism in the UK but the people often linked to them or sometimes mentioned and used against them as part of this idea of them being really far left are often Jewish, or have Jewish heritage which I assume is Jewish enough for the sake of this debate.
Edit: I swear I posted this before I saw Ydoethur's reply
That is one reason why anti-Communism was often bound up with anti-Semitism in the 1920s and 1930s - most notoriously in the case of rather too many supporters of a certain A. Hitler.
We will take your word for the edit!
That wasn't Hitler's reason though I assume?
0 -
If anyone ever finds out what Hitler's reasons were for hating the Jews, or exactly when he started hating them, I'll be able to answer that question for you.TheJezziah said:
Ahh thank you, I did see a list somewhere, think that Jewdas group put something out with a few of those names on read up a limited amount of Rosa but the rest mostly fleeting.ydoethur said:
Not Lenin. The other two were Jewish, as were other leading RSDLP figures e.g. Kamenev, Zinoviev, Molotov (although he came later and his link was by marriage) and Martov, leader of the Mensheviks. That was also true of German socialists e.g. Rosa Luxembourg, leader of the Spartacists.TheJezziah said:
Marx, Lenin and Trotsky are sometimes mentioned, I think that is the trio McDonnell quoted at one point, are some of the people brought up as part of this ideology... often as part of some right wing propaganda to imply that Britain is going to become communist.. occasionally as infiltrators, although that is usually just 'the trots' apparently.
The problem with this theory and I have seen cyclefree go down this left wing ideology equals anti semitic route, is just how many Jewish people there are involved. The Marx, Lenin and Trotsky trio for example all I understand are Jewish or have some Jewish heritage (happy to be corrected)
I'm not sure Corbyn or the rest of them are actually all that far left or going to impose some kind of communism in the UK but the people often linked to them or sometimes mentioned and used against them as part of this idea of them being really far left are often Jewish, or have Jewish heritage which I assume is Jewish enough for the sake of this debate.
Edit: I swear I posted this before I saw Ydoethur's reply
That is one reason why anti-Communism was often bound up with anti-Semitism in the 1920s and 1930s - most notoriously in the case of rather too many supporters of a certain A. Hitler.
We will take your word for the edit!
That wasn't Hitler's reason though I assume?0 -
There are pockets of real poverty all along the south coast. Not a surprise that there should be Labour councillors and even MPs. But in recent years, their vote has been lured by the siren song of UKIP. The near-death of UKIP has meant their vote has come home.Recidivist said:Spin aside, Labour is doing much better in the south east outside London than it has for decades. It was so far behind that I doubt it will make any impact in terms of winning seats at Westminster. But to have for example 5 Labour councillors in Worthing is quite something, and not something anyone would have predicted only a few years ago. I have a feeling the wheel is still in spin.
We saw Jeremy Corbyn in Plymouth yesterday, but Labour didn't win Plymouth back as a result of taking Tory seats - their one gain from the Tories would not have switched the council. What won Plymouth was the three seats they took from UKIP.0 -
More specifically, the leaders of the Bavarian Soviet Republic in Spring 1919 were mostly Jewish. AH cut his political teeth in post-WW1 Munich. They sowed the seeds, and the whirlwind was reaped in 1941-5.ydoethur said:
Not Lenin. The other two were Jewish, as were other leading RSDLP figures e.g. Kamenev, Zinoviev, Molotov (although he came later and his link was by marriage) and Martov, leader of the Mensheviks. That was also true of German socialists e.g. Rosa Luxembourg, leader of the Spartacists.TheJezziah said:
Marx, Lenin and Trotsky are sometimes mentioned, I think that is the trio McDonnell quoted at one point, are some of the people brought up as part of this ideology... often as part of some right wing propaganda to imply that Britain is going to become communist.. occasionally as infiltrators, although that is usually just 'the trots' apparently.
The problem with this theory and I have seen cyclefree go down this left wing ideology equals anti semitic route, is just how many Jewish people there are involved. The Marx, Lenin and Trotsky trio for example all I understand are Jewish or have some Jewish heritage (happy to be corrected)
I'm not sure Corbyn or the rest of them are actually all that far left or going to impose some kind of communism in the UK but the people often linked to them or sometimes mentioned and used against them as part of this idea of them being really far left are often Jewish, or have Jewish heritage which I assume is Jewish enough for the sake of this debate.
Edit: I swear I posted this before I saw Ydoethur's reply
That is one reason why anti-Communism was often bound up with anti-Semitism in the 1920s and 1930s - most notoriously in the case of rather too many supporters of a certain A. Hitler.
We will take your word for the edit!0 -
Dr. Foxy, but the very intransigence of the political class, particularly the Lords, is creating a ready made, and justifiable, reason for the failure of any fruits to ripen to be blamed not upon the departure of the UK but upon the collusion of those who disagree with the referendum result with the EU (ie supporting the other side of the negotiating table).
They want to bind us as closely as possible, in the customs union, and the single market too if they can achieve that. Such actions are not only dubious at best, contemptible at worst, after the referendum result, but create a new dark vision against which to unify. And it is not merely those who prefer we leave the EU, but those who prefer the electorate, and not the politicians (particularly those unelected), determine the political destiny of this country.
By attempting to dilute, delay and thwart our departure, the metropolitan political class are deepening already severe divisions, embittering an already poisonous atmosphere, and keeping united (and angering further) those who simply want the democratic decision we took to be enacted.
Teaching the electorate that democratic votes can be ignored at will if they contest the consensus of the political class in Westminster is deeply unwise.0 -
That's one theory, certainly. However, there are many others and in default of reliable evidence it is rather hard to say which one is right.daodao said:
More specifically, the leaders of the Bavarian Soviet Republic in Spring 1919 were mostly Jewish. AH cut his political teeth in post-WW1 Munich. They sowed the seeds, and the whirlwind was reaped in 1941-5.ydoethur said:
Not Lenin. The other two were Jewish, as were other leading RSDLP figures e.g. Kamenev, Zinoviev, Molotov (although he came later and his link was by marriage) and Martov, leader of the Mensheviks. That was also true of German socialists e.g. Rosa Luxembourg, leader of the Spartacists.TheJezziah said:
Marx, Lenin and Trotsky are sometimes mentioned, I think that is the trio McDonnell quoted at one point, are some of the people brought up as part of this ideology... often as part of some right wing propaganda to imply that Britain is going to become communist.. occasionally as infiltrators, although that is usually just 'the trots' apparently.
The problem with this theory and I have seen cyclefree go down this left wing ideology equals anti semitic route, is just how many Jewish people there are involved. The Marx, Lenin and Trotsky trio for example all I understand are Jewish or have some Jewish heritage (happy to be corrected)
I'm not sure Corbyn or the rest of them are actually all that far left or going to impose some kind of communism in the UK but the people often linked to them or sometimes mentioned and used against them as part of this idea of them being really far left are often Jewish, or have Jewish heritage which I assume is Jewish enough for the sake of this debate.
Edit: I swear I posted this before I saw Ydoethur's reply
That is one reason why anti-Communism was often bound up with anti-Semitism in the 1920s and 1930s - most notoriously in the case of rather too many supporters of a certain A. Hitler.
We will take your word for the edit!
Hitler himself said that he came to an 'understanding'(!) of the Jews some time before the First World War, in which case it might have been the fact that there was a Jewish element in Communism that turned him off it rather than the other way around, but then Hitler is not a man whose word I would trust.0 -
Everyone here in favour of the £2 limit (which I think is just about all of us) should write to their MP this weekend on the subject. If the denizens of a political gambling website can’t care about this issue, then no-one will except the industry lobbyists.RobD said:
I fail to see what value those machines have, apart from as a source of revenue for the bookmakers. A £2 limit is generous.flubadub said:"They are really pushing for a £100 stake limit? Ridiculous!"
No, I think the plan was for a £30 limit (the current limit is £100, and £30 wouldn't change them too fundamentally). But MPs want to neuter the machines with a £2 limit instead.0 -
Your naive belief that Corbyn is the real leader would be amusing if it wasn't so dangerous .TheJezziah said:
At a guess Corbyn fits into your hard left group?felix said:
Totally agree on the last paragraph - Labour is becoming increasingly the party of factions and lord help you if you are in the wrong group. I wonder if Owen Jones understands the real hard left view on homosexuality - let alone that of some Muslim fundamentalists.IanB2 said:For the LibDems, there is clearly a very localised EU-based vote in SW London, quite possibly driven by a lot of the educated EU citizens who live there actually turning out in a local election. Richmond/Kingston/Merton account for 50 of the LibDem gains. And South Cambs, where something similar appears to have happened, accounts for another 20. There's your LibDem 'national recovery' right there. For everyone else in the country the story is simply that the LibDems have stopped losing. The same story as last year.
For Labour, the results should be worrying. Despite the government doing so badly, people aren't voting 'against' the government in local elections, so much as taking positions on the ongoing saga of Brexit. Labour is stuck on the Brexit fence and will lose support as soon as either of its feet approaches the grass on either side. Unless they can stay on the fence until Brexit goes pear shaped and restores the anti-government protest vote.
On antisemitism the issue is not so much individual racist party members, but that the party has sought to adopt the Muslim vote as a client group, and in so doing has bought into what it perceives as its agenda and interests, to the point that the distinction between the actions of Israel and of Jews is lost.
Given he was fighting for gay rights before most I'm pretty sure he'd be quite happy with them. If you want someone to demonise Muslims using the cover of gay rights you are probably after a Le Pen type.
Or that new UKIP split off party if you want something domestic.
I'm not sure either would really be Owen's cup of tea...0 -
It is sometime since I last read Marx's works, but I think it fair to say he wouldn't have recognised the Soviet Union as what he had in mind.ydoethur said:
I wonder what he would have made of Conmunism as it was attempted in practice. Old Soviet joke about the impact of his ideas:daodao said:
And while we are on the subject of Karl Marx, today is the 200th anniversary of his birth.ydoethur said:
Which is richly ironic given Milne at least has always been quite comfortable being called a Marxist. Mind you I suppose the same was true of Stalin and that didn't stop him launching anti-Semitic purges.Ishmael_Z said:
Well quite, and confiding a view to a pollster is a different thing from putting it in a tweet with the words "Jewish c--t" in it. I don't buy this "same problem different ways of dealing with it" line. I think Corbyn and Milne buy in to an ideology with anti semitism at its core.Charles said:
The more interesting data would have been if they had shown the results for parties in more detail. The stat cited (40% for Tories and 32% of Labour) is people who cited *1* anti-Semitic statement out of 6.CarlottaVance said:On the anti-semitism question, those interested I suggest read the original report:
.
I’m not sure that anti-Semitism is a binary state but I could see that someone who endorses 1 statement might be seen as having “unsavoury opinions” while someone who endorses all 6 is an out and out Jew hater.
It would be interesting to see if the parties have a similar spread of opinions. It’s a plausible hypothesis, for example, that the Tories have more 1/6 while Labour has more nutters on 5 or 6/6.
Is there a breakdown of the data anywhere?
Karl Marx was resurrected and came to the USSR. He was shown factories, hospitals, cities and villages, etc. Finally, he requested to be allowed to make a speech on TV. The Politburo hesitated as they were afraid he might say something they wouldn’t approve. Marx promised he would say only one sentence. Under this condition, the Politburo agreed. Karl Marx uttered the following sentence: “Workers of all countries, forgive me."
He was a fabulously influential economist and philosopher, still fundamental for understanding society today. Some of the works are hardly light reading, but The Communist Manifesto is short and readable. There is this new film out on Young Marx that sounds worth seeking out.
https://www.newstatesman.com/culture/film/2018/05/young-karl-marx-sparky-retelling-build-communist-manifesto
We are now (in the West) in a post industrial revolution, but many of the same issues are live today.
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I'm quite certain there are anti-semitic Conservatives. I've met them. But, it's more based on snobbery, as opposed to holocaust denial, or ludicrous conspiracy theories.CarlottaVance said:FPT:
There's no evidence for that.TheJezziah said:
I'm not sure why they are less bothered by the greater levels of anti-semitism in the Conservative partyCarlottaVance said:
Why do you think 83% of British Jews think the Labour Party is too tolerant of antisemitism among their MPs, members and supporters, while the comparable number for the Conservatives is 19%?TheJezziah said:
You disagreed with my statement, that is how we went on off on this little chain.CarlottaVance said:
We were arguing about Parties - you know - the thing Party Leaders are Responsible forTheJezziah said:Sorry are the statistics different to my link?
Neither May nor Corbyn are directly responsible for who votes for them. They are directly responsible for the internal discipline within their party and the atmosphere within the party.
Why do you think 83% of British Jews think the Labour Party is too tolerant of antisemitism among their MPs, members and supporters, while the comparable number for the Conservatives is 19%?
The quote the original report, not the Labour spun version you posted:
Labour Party supporters are less likely to be antisemitic than other voters, so the cause of British Jews’ discontentment with the Labour Party must be the way that it has very publicly failed to robustly deal with the antisemites in its ranks. This means that the Labour Party has fallen out of step with its core supporters, who are generally less likely to hold antisemitic beliefs.
I was talking about voters, if you are not you are clearly arguing a different point.
But yes I can fully understand why the Conservatives wouldn't care about anti-semitic Conservatives and would rather keep that quiet and use anti-semitism to point score.
Among voters, yes - but in the party no. And if British Jews are any guide 83% of them think the Labour Party has a problem compared to 19% who think the Conservative Party has.0 -
On Topic
We have only just begun.
If we start from here going into the GE
Jezza will be PM his campaigning skills in a GE are legendary.0 -
It takes some level of magical thinking to suggest that the aftermath of a stabbing resembles a war zone more than any shooting, let alone the unfortunately frequent mass events so common in the USA.Roger said:OT. Just heard the seeding of the story that led to Trump's defence of US gun laws. It started with a doctor in a London hospital being interviewed by John Humphrys complaining about overwork. The interview went something like this .....
JH. Are you saying you are dealing with so much knife crime that it's affecting your workload
Doctor. Yes. It's sometimes like a war zone.
JH. Really? A "war zone!"
Doctor. Well some of my colleagues who have woked in war zones have called it that.
JH. Well..well...
The Daily Mail then picked it up and wrote a story about it with a lurid headline........
.....The baton passed by the Mail was then picked up by Trump who included it in a speech which ended with the words 'there will never be gun control while I am President' ....
The damage to the UK's reputation though huge is as nothing compared to those who will be damaged by the guns that will now not be controlled (in part) because of the story.
A beautiful example of how the once honourable communications industry has now been twisted out of shape
Of course Trump & his coterie know that, but no lie too big when it comes to tickling the love button of the gun nuts. Let's hope we hear no more crap about Trump being the person who's REALLY going to tackle gun reform.
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Yes, I expect that you are right. Brexiterrs are very unlikely to accept responsibility for what they have wrought, and retreat to "stab in the back" accusations. I have faith that the British public are sensible enough not to believe it though.Morris_Dancer said:Dr. Foxy, but the very intransigence of the political class, particularly the Lords, is creating a ready made, and justifiable, reason for the failure of any fruits to ripen to be blamed not upon the departure of the UK but upon the collusion of those who disagree with the referendum result with the EU (ie supporting the other side of the negotiating table).
They want to bind us as closely as possible, in the customs union, and the single market too if they can achieve that. Such actions are not only dubious at best, contemptible at worst, after the referendum result, but create a new dark vision against which to unify. And it is not merely those who prefer we leave the EU, but those who prefer the electorate, and not the politicians (particularly those unelected), determine the political destiny of this country.
By attempting to dilute, delay and thwart our departure, the metropolitan political class are deepening already severe divisions, embittering an already poisonous atmosphere, and keeping united (and angering further) those who simply want the democratic decision we took to be enacted.
Teaching the electorate that democratic votes can be ignored at will if they contest the consensus of the political class in Westminster is deeply unwise.0 -
Last year was worse for Labour, for one.Scott_P said:0 -
When you think about it for more than a second you realise that May should have gone to Barnet. Not only was it a Tory win in the capital of a Council Labour expected to take, it would have emphasised the negativities that are now surrounding Corbyn and kept that theme in the media. But May simply has no idea how to campaign. Her "victory" speech yesterday was painful, bordering on embarrassing. She is intensely uncomfortable doing that kind of stuff and it shows.
As I said yesterday I think that these results were in fact a lot worse for the Tories than they appeared on the surface. Briefly:
123 UKIP losses really should have been gains for all. Instead they simply hid the extent of the losses the Tories suffered.
The significant step forward by the Lib Dems, who did better and better ending up the clear winners of the day, is very bad news for the Tories. Those seats that Cameron won in 2015 are now very much back in play.
The collapse of UKIP has made the Tory vote much less efficient. We see this by comparing 2015 with 2017. It wasn't just that Labour did much better. Cameron's 37% was much better distributed for winning a majority than May's 42%. Similarly yesterday the Tories had the biggest increase in the share of the vote compared with 2014 but they lost seats and Councils.
This is because Cameron and Osborne could reach out beyond the Tory heartlands to metropolitan liberals. It cost them a slew of votes to UKIP but it didn't cost them any seats. The Tory vote is now back in its more traditional bastions and that makes a majority very difficult.
May really is not the answer to these problems. In fact she adds to them with some particular problems of her own. If the Tories go into the next election with her as leader the Tories are playing with fire and the hope that fear and distaste of Corbyn is enough. It may not be.0 -
Whereas 57 per cent of people in the UK annually give something to charity , the figure for British Jews is much higher at 93 per cent.Roger said:
A bizarre report . One third opinion. One third legitimate polling. One third propaganda. For example "The reality is poverty is a major problem for British Jews and data suggests British Jews are disproportionately philanthropic". Followed by one of their seven tests for antisemitism "British Jews consider themselves better than other people"CarlottaVance said:On the anti-semitism question, those interested I suggest read the original report:
https://antisemitism.uk/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/Antisemitism-Barometer-2017.pdf
Rather than the Labour spun version which is often posted - and omits:
Labour Party supporters are less likely to be antisemitic than other voters, so the cause of British Jews’ discontentment with the Labour Party must be the way that it has very publicly failed to robustly deal with the antisemites in its ranks. This means that the Labour Party has fallen out of step with its core supporters, who are generally less likely to hold antisemitic beliefs.
Focussing instead on the first dozen words and ignoring the rest....
https://www.thejc.com/news/uk-news/over-90-per-cent-of-uk-jews-give-to-charity-with-orthodox-and-over-60s-most-generous-report-finds-1.62160
Poverty and deprivation are problems in the haredi community:
http://www.jpr.org.uk/documents/Key trends in the British Jewish community.pdf
0 -
Jewish humour at its best......
Q: Is one permitted to ride in an airplane on the Sabbath?
A: Yes, as long as your seat belt remains fastened. In this case, it is considered that you are not riding, you are wearing the plane.0 -
I agree, we are in a stalemate, like the Western Front in Spring 1918, with each side dug into its fortifications, but the deadlock will break soon. The ticking clock of Brexit will ensure that, but what follows? who knows?DavidL said:When you think about it for more than a second you realise that May should have gone to Barnet. Not only was it a Tory win in the capital of a Council Labour expected to take, it would have emphasised the negativities that are now surrounding Corbyn and kept that theme in the media. But May simply has no idea how to campaign. Her "victory" speech yesterday was painful, bordering on embarrassing. She is intensely uncomfortable doing that kind of stuff and it shows.
As I said yesterday I think that these results were in fact a lot worse for the Tories than they appeared on the surface. Briefly:
123 UKIP losses really should have been gains for all. Instead they simply hid the extent of the losses the Tories suffered.
The significant step forward by the Lib Dems, who did better and better ending up the clear winners of the day, is very bad news for the Tories. Those seats that Cameron won in 2015 are now very much back in play.
The collapse of UKIP has made the Tory vote much less efficient. We see this by comparing 2015 with 2017. It wasn't just that Labour did much better. Cameron's 37% was much better distributed for winning a majority than May's 42%. Similarly yesterday the Tories had the biggest increase in the share of the vote compared with 2014 but they lost seats and Councils.
This is because Cameron and Osborne could reach out beyond the Tory heartlands to metropolitan liberals. It cost them a slew of votes to UKIP but it didn't cost them any seats. The Tory vote is now back in its more traditional bastions and that makes a majority very difficult.
May really is not the answer to these problems. In fact she adds to them with some particular problems of her own. If the Tories go into the next election with her as leader the Tories are playing with fire and the hope that fear and distaste of Corbyn is enough. It may not be.
0 -
According to Ian Kershaw, Hitler's political beliefs really aren't clear in the immediate aftermath of WWI. He was associated with the SPD for a time.0
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Dr. Foxy, with respect, that's a glib response that fails to take into account the real problem.
We voted to Leave. If the political class seeks to get a BINO situation, deliberately binding us closer to the EU than the electorate wants, then how can we tell if the departure was successful, when in truth we've merely lengthened the chain rather than left the prison?
Trying to keep our trade deals in the power of the EU, when we voted to Leave, is not respecting the vote. To suggest those who have a problem with the Lords and some MPs attempting to thwart the result of the referendum are 'not sensible' is a milder form of 'basket of deplorables'.
If the political class shows contempt for the electorate, the favour may very well be returned. As somebody who has grave concerns about the far left's capture of the Labour Party, and does not want a far right party to ascend on the other side of the spectrum, this worries me greatly.0 -
Labour notably did very well in Worthing east last year. I don't know the area well bit I assume it's starting to move the way that Hove next door has gone over the past 30 years.MarqueeMark said:
There are pockets of real poverty all along the south coast. Not a surprise that there should be Labour councillors and even MPs. But in recent years, their vote has been lured by the siren song of UKIP. The near-death of UKIP has meant their vote has come home.Recidivist said:Spin aside, Labour is doing much better in the south east outside London than it has for decades. It was so far behind that I doubt it will make any impact in terms of winning seats at Westminster. But to have for example 5 Labour councillors in Worthing is quite something, and not something anyone would have predicted only a few years ago. I have a feeling the wheel is still in spin.
We saw Jeremy Corbyn in Plymouth yesterday, but Labour didn't win Plymouth back as a result of taking Tory seats - their one gain from the Tories would not have switched the council. What won Plymouth was the three seats they took from UKIP.0 -
So when I close my eyes and try to imagine Jeremy and Mrs Corbyn III outside No 10, I cannot. Briefly, last summer perhaps: not now. Instead I see a beaming woman, Britain’s third female prime minister, our Justin Trudeau or Jacinda, modern, amusing, optimistic, inclusive, holding a toddler, the first lesbian mother PM in the world. Even if you could never vote for Ruth Davidson, she is easy to like. While the Corbyn roadshow, having run out of high moral steam, is fuelled only by bitterness and hate.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/comment/local-elections-what-the-results-mean-for-labour-vxvwhtzdr0 -
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But presumably they have that data. Is anyone able to request it or can they hold it back if desired?CarlottaVance said:
The YouGov tables:Charles said:
The more interesting data would have been if they had shown the results for parties in more detail. The stat cited (40% for Tories and 32% of Labour) is people who cited *1* anti-Semitic statement out of 6.CarlottaVance said:On the anti-semitism question, those interested I suggest read the original report:
https://antisemitism.uk/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/Antisemitism-Barometer-2017.pdf
Rather than the Labour spun version which is often posted - and omits:
Labour Party supporters are less likely to be antisemitic than other voters, so the cause of British Jews’ discontentment with the Labour Party must be the way that it has very publicly failed to robustly deal with the antisemites in its ranks. This means that the Labour Party has fallen out of step with its core supporters, who are generally less likely to hold antisemitic beliefs.
Focussing instead on the first dozen words and ignoring the rest....
I’m not sure that anti-Semitism is a binary state but I could see that someone who endorses 1 statement might be seen as having “unsavoury opinions” while someone who endorses all 6 is an out and out Jew hater.
It would be interesting to see if the parties have a similar spread of opinions. It’s a plausible hypothesis, for example, that the Tories have more 1/6 while Labour has more nutters on 5 or 6/6.
Is there a breakdown of the data anywhere?
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/bs0i5dmt7s/CampaignAgainstAntisemitismResults_170803_JewishOpinions.pdf
But they don't break out the data in the way you suggest. The highest single score among all parties voters on anti semitic statements was for British Jewish people chase money more than other British people". (Con 27, with Lab on 14 & Lib Dems on 19), but on other questions there was a tie: "Jewish people can be trusted just as much as other British people in business".(77 / 75 / 79).
Among British Jews their biggest concern is anti-semitism (primary and secondary concerns) is from Islamism (79%), followed by the Far Left (72%) then the Far Right (37%)0 -
A stereotype is a stereotype. it's difficult to keep the good ones and lose the bad. The example I gave was just one of many they struggled with. SeanT once described Jewish people as much cleverer than the average. Does that make him an antisemite?CarlottaVance said:
Whereas 57 per cent of people in the UK annually give something to charity , the figure for British Jews is much higher at 93 per cent.Roger said:
A bizarre report . One third opinion. One third legitimate polling. One third propaganda. For example "The reality is poverty is a major problem for British Jews and data suggests British Jews are disproportionately philanthropic". Followed by one of their seven tests for antisemitism "British Jews consider themselves better than other people"CarlottaVance said:On the anti-semitism question, those interested I suggest read the original report:
https://antisemitism.uk/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/Antisemitism-Barometer-2017.pdf
Rather than the Labour spun version which is often posted - and omits:
Labour Party supporters are less likely to be antisemitic than other voters, so the cause of British Jews’ discontentment with the Labour Party must be the way that it has very publicly failed to robustly deal with the antisemites in its ranks. This means that the Labour Party has fallen out of step with its core supporters, who are generally less likely to hold antisemitic beliefs.
Focussing instead on the first dozen words and ignoring the rest....
https://www.thejc.com/news/uk-news/over-90-per-cent-of-uk-jews-give-to-charity-with-orthodox-and-over-60s-most-generous-report-finds-1.62160
Poverty and deprivation are problems in the haredi community:
http://www.jpr.org.uk/documents/Key trends in the British Jewish community.pdf0 -
EnjoyRobD said:
Gaining 62 seats best since 1971? Owen wants to take a look back at the 90s. Labour gained 1800 seats in 1995.CarlottaVance said:
https://twitter.com/DawnButlerBrent/status/992369679787323399?s=19
https://twitter.com/OwenJones84/status/992369815917613056?s=190 -
His skills moved the party from c 25% to c 40%. That’s a great result.bigjohnowls said:On Topic
We have only just begun.
If we start from here going into the GE
Jezza will be PM his campaigning skills in a GE are legendary.
It doesn’t logically follow that he will be able to convert a further 15% (or anything like it) in the next campaign
I suspect he’s converted all he can - now it’s up to people not voting Tory as those who weren’t convinced in 2017 aren’t likely to be convinced next tine round0 -
Do you believe the Tories are on course for an overall majority on the basis of these results, then?CarlottaVance said:
I am perfectly content if Labour supporters view these results as 'great', or indeed 'the best since 1971'.....TheJezziah said:
Doesn't that only give us a sample size of 2, which seems a bit small to make any calls off.CarlottaVance said:
Stephen Fisher:TheJezziah said:I don't buy into this idea that you need some incredible local election results otherwise you will lose the next general election.
Edit: *I did laugh at Matt Zarb in his MAGA hat...
Opposition parties normally win local elections. Since records began, albeit only since 1982, the oppositions that have gone on to win the next general election have won double digit leads in all the preceding local elections, starting with those in the immediate post-election year. Not only is Labour far from having a 10-point lead, the fact that it has no lead at all should be deeply disappointing.
Of course the past is no guide for future performance - but it should certainly give pause for thought.
Agree on Matt Zarb-Cousin - tho he should have posted it himself, rather than leaving it to Guido...
Blair and then Cameron are the only changes of government, those changes of government also saw the governing party lose a substantial number of seats, Labour doesn't really need the Conservatives to lose that many seats.
If we want to see the kind of seat losses for the government and seat gains for the opposition that Blair and Cameron made, assuming the sample size of 2 give us an infallible rule, then we would need the kind of leads he is talking about.
For something like a Conservative drop of 50 seats and a Labour gain of say 70 seats we wouldn't need the leads of Cameron and Blair, that is for a majority government as well. If Labour fell short the SNP, PC and the Green MP would back a Labour government.
We'll agree to disagree on the other thing, starting to get a little circular.0 -
To be fair to a Trump he said “I’ve read reports describing it as a war zone”. That’s probably not a lie although the original metaphor was clearly ridiculousTheuniondivvie said:
It takes some level of magical thinking to suggest that the aftermath of a stabbing resembles a war zone more than any shooting, let alone the unfortunately frequent mass events so common in the USA.Roger said:OT. Just heard the seeding of the story that led to Trump's defence of US gun laws. It started with a doctor in a London hospital being interviewed by John Humphrys complaining about overwork. The interview went something like this .....
JH. Are you saying you are dealing with so much knife crime that it's affecting your workload
Doctor. Yes. It's sometimes like a war zone.
JH. Really? A "war zone!"
Doctor. Well some of my colleagues who have woked in war zones have called it that.
JH. Well..well...
The Daily Mail then picked it up and wrote a story about it with a lurid headline........
.....The baton passed by the Mail was then picked up by Trump who included it in a speech which ended with the words 'there will never be gun control while I am President' ....
The damage to the UK's reputation though huge is as nothing compared to those who will be damaged by the guns that will now not be controlled (in part) because of the story.
A beautiful example of how the once honourable communications industry has now been twisted out of shape
Of course Trump & his coterie know that, but no lie too big when it comes to tickling the love button of the gun nuts. Let's hope we hear no more crap about Trump being the person who's REALLY going to tackle gun reform.0 -
My favourite Jewish joke is a great one for the human condition:Roger said:Jewish humour at its best......
Q: Is one permitted to ride in an airplane on the Sabbath?
A: Yes, as long as your seat belt remains fastened. In this case, it is considered that you are not riding, you are wearing the plane.
A mother and her beloved son are walking on a beach, when a great wave breaks and sweeps the youngster out to sea. He disappears out to the sea, and gets lost to sight.
The mother cries out to God, "Save my son, and return him, and I will devote the entirety of my life to good works in your service. I shall observe the Sabbath strictly, and instruct him as one of the righteous. Please, save my son!"
Shortly afterwards another great wave breaks, and suddenly the boy is thrown ashore at her feet, soggy, but unharmed.
The mother stands in stunned silence for a few seconds, then raises her hand to Heaven. She shouts angrily "He had a hat, you know...!0 -
You can add the upcoming sovereign debt crisis into this mix as well. How it all plays out is anybody's guess. There is a sort of stability in the labour tory stalemate as when one side is perceived as doing well, that motivates the anti forces on the other side to balance matters out. Hopefully the exposing of corruption in high places will bring matters to a head too.Morris_Dancer said:Good morning, everyone.
I think a lot depends on (from Labour's side) how the claims of anti-Semitism etc are handled. Right now, the party looks less than wonderful for Jews, and Corbyn's preferred to side with the Russian state over the United Kingdom. These aren't good looks.
However, they may benefit from Conservative mediocrity and, critically, EU fallout, so it's very hard to try and call the next election.0 -
By the way, BBC says that, following Tower Hamlets, Labour has a net gain of +77 seats, compared to the Lib Dems' +75 seats.
Are the Lib Dems still the "clear winners"?0 -
Brilliant!Foxy said:
My favourite Jewish joke is a great one for the human condition:Roger said:Jewish humour at its best......
Q: Is one permitted to ride in an airplane on the Sabbath?
A: Yes, as long as your seat belt remains fastened. In this case, it is considered that you are not riding, you are wearing the plane.
A mother and her beloved son are walking on a beach, when a great wave breaks and sweeps the youngster out to sea. He disappears out to the sea, and gets lost to sight.
The mother cries out to God, "Save my son, and return him, and I will devote the entirety of my life to good works in your service. I shall observe the Sabbath strictly, and instruct him as one of the righteous. Please, save my son!"
Shortly afterwards another great wave breaks, and suddenly the boy is thrown ashore at her feet, soggy, but unharmed.
The mother stands in stunned silence for a few seconds, then raises her hand to Heaven. She shouts angrily "He had a hat, you know...!0 -
We will only get a BINO if the House of Commons votes for it.Morris_Dancer said:Dr. Foxy, with respect, that's a glib response that fails to take into account the real problem.
We voted to Leave. If the political class seeks to get a BINO situation, deliberately binding us closer to the EU than the electorate wants, then how can we tell if the departure was successful, when in truth we've merely lengthened the chain rather than left the prison?
Trying to keep our trade deals in the power of the EU, when we voted to Leave, is not respecting the vote. To suggest those who have a problem with the Lords and some MPs attempting to thwart the result of the referendum are 'not sensible' is a milder form of 'basket of deplorables'.
If the political class shows contempt for the electorate, the favour may very well be returned. As somebody who has grave concerns about the far left's capture of the Labour Party, and does not want a far right party to ascend on the other side of the spectrum, this worries me greatly.
You may well label the HoC "The Political Class" frustrating the will of "The People" but if so, you are the vanguard of the far right party that you fear.0
