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  • anothernick
    anothernick Posts: 3,591
    NickPalmer said:

    anotherDave said:

    Does it really matter to the Conservatives GE chances if UKIP win the EU elections?

    IMO yes. Cameron is quoted as saying that the Conservatives can't win unless UKIP fall back to 5%. If they win a national election a year before the GE, they are unlikely to fall back that far. Conversely, if they come second to Labour (or even third), the Tories can portray them as a fading force - "they say they stand for EU withdrawal but they can't even win an EU election". While it'd be nice for Labour to win the EU vote, it's less crucial, since disappointed Labour voters are unlikely to vote Tory, but disappointed UKIP voters might.

    I'm too partisan to hope that UKIP wins, of course, but I'd guess that Tory fire will be principle against them in the Euros.

    Another aspect is that if UKIP wins (or comes second) and the Tories are pushed into a poor third place there is some risk that panic will break out in the Tory Party. This could possibly lead to a challenge to Cameron's leadership and even the early collapse of the coalition. The chances of this happening are not particularly high, but such a scenario can't be entirely ruled out IMO.

  • anotherDave
    anotherDave Posts: 6,746
    anothernick said:

    NickPalmer said:

    anotherDave said:

    Does it really matter to the Conservatives GE chances if UKIP win the EU elections?

    IMO yes. Cameron is quoted as saying that the Conservatives can't win unless UKIP fall back to 5%. If they win a national election a year before the GE, they are unlikely to fall back that far. Conversely, if they come second to Labour (or even third), the Tories can portray them as a fading force - "they say they stand for EU withdrawal but they can't even win an EU election". While it'd be nice for Labour to win the EU vote, it's less crucial, since disappointed Labour voters are unlikely to vote Tory, but disappointed UKIP voters might.

    I'm too partisan to hope that UKIP wins, of course, but I'd guess that Tory fire will be principle against them in the Euros.

    Another aspect is that if UKIP wins (or comes second) and the Tories are pushed into a poor third place there is some risk that panic will break out in the Tory Party. This could possibly lead to a challenge to Cameron's leadership and even the early collapse of the coalition. The chances of this happening are not particularly high, but such a scenario can't be entirely ruled out IMO.

    The scottish referendum is scheduled for late 2014. I can't see Conservative MPs triggering a leadership contest after the May elections with that on the horizon.
  • Lucian_Fletcher
    Lucian_Fletcher Posts: 793
    FFS. Johnson is too good for England at the moment.
  • anotherDave
    anotherDave Posts: 6,746
    NickPalmer said:

    anotherDave said:

    Does it really matter to the Conservatives GE chances if UKIP win the EU elections?

    I'm too partisan to hope that UKIP wins, of course, but I'd guess that Tory fire will be principle against them in the Euros.

    Funnily enough, Michael Fallon was advocating the Conservatives making a pro-EU case to dish UKIP in his Spectator interview the other day.

    http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2013/12/tea-at-22-michael-fallon-on-jobs-europe-and-ukip/

    I think they still want to pose as euro-sceptics for the EU elections, but it would be fun if they came out as a pro-EU party!
  • NickPalmer
    NickPalmer Posts: 21,724
    anotherDave said:


    The scottish referendum is scheduled for late 2014. I can't see Conservative MPs triggering a leadership contest after the May elections with that on the horizon.

    Not sure that MPs worried about their seats will assign great importance to that - many Tories seem somewhat in two minds about what they'd like to happen in the referendum, certainly by comparison with their interest in holding on to their own seats.

    It's easy to feel this is cynical, but how many people in any walk of life would shrug off a risk to their jobs because they felt concerned about a Scottish referendum?

  • oldnat
    oldnat Posts: 136
    anotherDave

    "The scottish referendum is scheduled for late 2014". The legislation for it to take place on 18th September 2014 received royal assent on 17th December.
  • AndyJS
    AndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Opinion polls for the previous Euro election in 2009:

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Parliament_election,_2009_(United_Kingdom)#Opinion_polls
  • AndyJS
    AndyJS Posts: 29,395
    The first poll of the year in 2009 for the Euro elections was a YouGov survey:

    Con 35%
    Lab 29%
    LD 15%
    UKIP 7%
    Others 15%

    The actual result was as follows:

    Con 27.7%
    UKIP 16.5%
    Lab 15.7%
    LD 13.7%
    Others 26.4%

    Differences:

    Con -7.3%
    Lab -13.3%
    UKIP +9.5%
    LD -1.3%
    Others +11.4%
  • anotherDave
    anotherDave Posts: 6,746
    NickPalmer said:

    anotherDave said:


    The scottish referendum is scheduled for late 2014. I can't see Conservative MPs triggering a leadership contest after the May elections with that on the horizon.

    Not sure that MPs worried about their seats will assign great importance to that - many Tories seem somewhat in two minds about what they'd like to happen in the referendum, certainly by comparison with their interest in holding on to their own seats.

    It's easy to feel this is cynical, but how many people in any walk of life would shrug off a risk to their jobs because they felt concerned about a Scottish referendum?

    How many MPs seats ever change hands at an election? Most Conservative MPs will be fine, whatever happens. There are 50-100 who will be looking for work in 2015.

    There can't be many Conservative MPs who still think the Cameroons aren't clueless losers. I don't see that third place in 2014 would tell them anything they don't already know.

    Anyway, the only charismatic alternative the Conservatives have is Boris, and he's not an MP.


  • Danny565
    Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    I wouldn't put too much store in polls for the Euros this early, since people only start properly thinking about elections on specialist subjects (and there's certainly enough evidence to suggest people treat the European elections as a specialist subject) when it comes closer to the time.

    Even as a Labour supporter, I find it hard to see UKIP not winning here. I think the Greens beating the Lib Dems back into 5th could also be a good shout, since the Lib Dems traditionally poll significantly below their general opinion-poll standing in the Euros.
  • anotherDave
    anotherDave Posts: 6,746
    edited December 2013
    Danny565 said:

    I think the Greens beating the Lib Dems back into 5th could also be a good shout, since the Lib Dems traditionally poll significantly below their general opinion-poll standing in the Euros.

    That would be fun. :-)

    If Cable/Farron/Davey are going to challenge Mr Clegg, after the 2014 elections would be a good moment.

  • AndyJS
    AndyJS Posts: 29,395
    anotherDave said:

    NickPalmer said:

    anotherDave said:


    The scottish referendum is scheduled for late 2014. I can't see Conservative MPs triggering a leadership contest after the May elections with that on the horizon.

    Not sure that MPs worried about their seats will assign great importance to that - many Tories seem somewhat in two minds about what they'd like to happen in the referendum, certainly by comparison with their interest in holding on to their own seats.

    It's easy to feel this is cynical, but how many people in any walk of life would shrug off a risk to their jobs because they felt concerned about a Scottish referendum?

    How many MPs seats ever change hands at an election? Most Conservative MPs will be fine, whatever happens. There are 50-100 who will be looking for work in 2015.

    There can't be many Conservative MPs who still think the Cameroons aren't clueless losers. I don't see that third place in 2014 would tell them anything they don't already know.

    Anyway, the only charismatic alternative the Conservatives have is Boris, and he's not an MP.


    The real panic for Tories would happen if they drop below 20%.
  • anotherDave
    anotherDave Posts: 6,746
    AndyJS said:

    anotherDave said:

    NickPalmer said:

    anotherDave said:


    The scottish referendum is scheduled for late 2014. I can't see Conservative MPs triggering a leadership contest after the May elections with that on the horizon.

    Not sure that MPs worried about their seats will assign great importance to that - many Tories seem somewhat in two minds about what they'd like to happen in the referendum, certainly by comparison with their interest in holding on to their own seats.

    It's easy to feel this is cynical, but how many people in any walk of life would shrug off a risk to their jobs because they felt concerned about a Scottish referendum?

    How many MPs seats ever change hands at an election? Most Conservative MPs will be fine, whatever happens. There are 50-100 who will be looking for work in 2015.

    There can't be many Conservative MPs who still think the Cameroons aren't clueless losers. I don't see that third place in 2014 would tell them anything they don't already know.

    Anyway, the only charismatic alternative the Conservatives have is Boris, and he's not an MP.


    The real panic for Tories would happen if they drop below 20%.
    I'm looking forward to the AndyJS/Survation spreadsheet of which MPs would lose their seats, if the 2014 local elections vote was repeated at the GE. :-)

  • isam
    isam Posts: 42,205
    edited December 2013
    Ukip have been over estimated In terms of winning the EU elections... Shouldn't think they should ever have been odds on

    Big three parties will always try and offer unrealistic expectations for ukip then try and beat them down when the fail to meet them... Ogh is doin it here...Hasn't happened so far in the elections 2011-2013, may do in 2014

    Well we will see... I can honestly say, from the people i know in my social circle, none of whom have ver voted ukip before, at least a dozen have said they will next time...

    I would guess they are 60/40 con lab
  • anotherDave
    anotherDave Posts: 6,746
    isam said:

    Ukip have been over estimated In terms of winning the EU elections... Shouldn't think they should ever have been odds on

    Big three parties will always try and offer unrealistic expectations for ukip then try and beat them down when the fail to meet them... Ogh is doin it here...Hasn't happened so far in the elections 2011-2013, may do in 2014

    Well we will see... I can honestly say, from the people i know in my social circle, none of whom have ver voted ukip before, at least a dozen have said they will next time...

    I would guess they are 60/40 con lab

    ?

    Mr Farage has been talking up UKIP's chances of winning the 2014 EU elections too. He did it again the other day in brief telephone interview with the Speccy.

    http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2013/12/christmas-podcast-the-view-from-22-on-this-year-and-looking-forward-to-2014/
  • edmundintokyo
    edmundintokyo Posts: 17,735
    Con third with 24% could easily be the end for Cameron. Remember it doesn't need the median Tory MP to panic, only the least level-headed 15%. Maybe even half of that if you count people who already hold grudges against him.
  • isam
    isam Posts: 42,205
    NickPalmer said:

    anotherDave said:

    Does it really matter to the Conservatives GE chances if UKIP win the EU elections?

    IMO yes. Cameron is quoted as saying that the Conservatives can't win unless UKIP fall back to 5%. If they win a national election a year before the GE, they are unlikely to fall back that far. Conversely, if they come second to Labour (or even third), the Tories can portray them as a fading force - "they say they stand for EU withdrawal but they can't even win an EU election". While it'd be nice for Labour to win the EU vote, it's less crucial, since disappointed Labour voters are unlikely to vote Tory, but disappointed UKIP voters might.

    I'm too partisan to hope that UKIP wins, of course, but I'd guess that Tory fire will be principle against them in the Euros.

    Haha

    That's why they are being built up so
  • isam
    isam Posts: 42,205
    The whole point is that winning an EU election will do nothing to influence EU withdrawal
  • isam
    isam Posts: 42,205
    anotherDave said:

    isam said:

    Ukip have been over estimated In terms of winning the EU elections... Shouldn't think they should ever have been odds on

    Big three parties will always try and offer unrealistic expectations for ukip then try and beat them down when the fail to meet them... Ogh is doin it here...Hasn't happened so far in the elections 2011-2013, may do in 2014

    Well we will see... I can honestly say, from the people i know in my social circle, none of whom have ver voted ukip before, at least a dozen have said they will next time...

    I would guess they are 60/40 con lab

    ?

    Mr Farage has been talking up UKIP's chances of winning the 2014 EU elections too. He did it again the other day in brief telephone interview with the Speccy.

    http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2013/12/christmas-podcast-the-view-from-22-on-this-year-and-looking-forward-to-2014/
    Yes he has said he wànts to win them, but not that he thinks it is odds on
  • isam
    isam Posts: 42,205
    If ukip fail to win the euro elections it won't be a big deal to the public, that what I'm trying to say
  • AndyJS
    AndyJS Posts: 29,395
    anotherDave said:

    AndyJS said:

    anotherDave said:

    NickPalmer said:

    anotherDave said:


    The scottish referendum is scheduled for late 2014. I can't see Conservative MPs triggering a leadership contest after the May elections with that on the horizon.

    Not sure that MPs worried about their seats will assign great importance to that - many Tories seem somewhat in two minds about what they'd like to happen in the referendum, certainly by comparison with their interest in holding on to their own seats.

    It's easy to feel this is cynical, but how many people in any walk of life would shrug off a risk to their jobs because they felt concerned about a Scottish referendum?

    How many MPs seats ever change hands at an election? Most Conservative MPs will be fine, whatever happens. There are 50-100 who will be looking for work in 2015.

    There can't be many Conservative MPs who still think the Cameroons aren't clueless losers. I don't see that third place in 2014 would tell them anything they don't already know.

    Anyway, the only charismatic alternative the Conservatives have is Boris, and he's not an MP.


    The real panic for Tories would happen if they drop below 20%.
    I'm looking forward to the AndyJS/Survation spreadsheet of which MPs would lose their seats, if the 2014 local elections vote was repeated at the GE. :-)

    Looking forward to it.
  • oldnat
    oldnat Posts: 136
    Watching BBC News about the floods in the south of England, I was struck by a phrase the reporter used - "The Government is doing it's best to help".

    I have no idea whether the UK Government (acting as the English Government in this case) is "doing it's best" or not, but the phraseology seems heavily value laden. Reporting on what the government is actually doing is news. The BBC appears to be going beyond reportage.
  • MonikerDiCanio
    MonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    edited December 2013
    oldnat said:

    Watching BBC News about the floods in the south of England, I was struck by a phrase the reporter used - "The Government is doing it's best to help".

    I have no idea whether the UK Government (acting as the English Government in this case) is "doing it's best" or not, but the phraseology seems heavily value laden. Reporting on what the government is actually doing is news. The BBC appears to be going beyond reportage.

    Welcome back ON.
    A misst ye sae muckle.

  • AndyJS
    AndyJS Posts: 29,395
    oldnat said:

    Watching BBC News about the floods in the south of England, I was struck by a phrase the reporter used - "The Government is doing it's best to help".

    I have no idea whether the UK Government (acting as the English Government in this case) is "doing it's best" or not, but the phraseology seems heavily value laden. Reporting on what the government is actually doing is news. The BBC appears to be going beyond reportage.

    I agree. I don't think that sort of folksy language is appropriate for a supposedly neutral broadcaster.
  • oldnat
    oldnat Posts: 136
    MonikerDiCanio

    Thanks (I think). Can you translate your comment into Scots or English? I'm fluent in both (depending on how much I've had to drink, of course). :-)
  • AveryLP
    AveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited December 2013
    AndyJS said:

    oldnat said:

    Watching BBC News about the floods in the south of England, I was struck by a phrase the reporter used - "The Government is doing it's best to help".

    I have no idea whether the UK Government (acting as the English Government in this case) is "doing it's best" or not, but the phraseology seems heavily value laden. Reporting on what the government is actually doing is news. The BBC appears to be going beyond reportage.

    I agree. I don't think that sort of folksy language is appropriate for a supposedly neutral broadcaster.
    George Eustice even took an hour off his Boxing Day celebrations to don a pair of green wellies for the photographers. A highly appropriate gesture given that he is Dave's newly appointed Fisheries Minister.

    What more do the ungrateful provinces expect of this government?

  • MonikerDiCanio
    MonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    oldnat said:

    MonikerDiCanio

    Thanks (I think). Can you translate your comment into Scots or English? I'm fluent in both (depending on how much I've had to drink, of course). :-)

    In contemporary Scots it translates as " I missed you so much".
  • oldnat
    oldnat Posts: 136
    AveryLP

    Hadn't heard of George Eustice before. I see one of his responsibilities is "Management of endemic and exotic diseases".

    Is he the head badger culler?
  • AveryLP
    AveryLP Posts: 7,815
    oldnat said:

    AveryLP

    Hadn't heard of George Eustice before. I see one of his responsibilities is "Management of endemic and exotic diseases".

    Is he the head badger culler?

    I think that is Owen Paterson, oldnat.

    A face to lead the Tories, a voice to destroy them.

  • oldnat
    oldnat Posts: 136
    MonikerDiCanio In that case, I really appreciate it. (I don't mind my wife knowing, but please don't tell my girlfriends). :-)

    And yes, I appreciate the joke about "contemporary Scots"! LOL (which also seems to be contemporary Scots!)
  • AveryLP
    AveryLP Posts: 7,815
    MonikerDiCanio said:

    oldnat said:

    MonikerDiCanio

    Thanks (I think). Can you translate your comment into Scots or English? I'm fluent in both (depending on how much I've had to drink, of course). :-)

    In contemporary Scots it translates as " I missed you so much".
    Are you suggesting that oldnat is not a "contemporary Scot", Moniker?

  • oldnat
    oldnat Posts: 136
    AveryLP

    Moniker was being very clever with that comment. While I probably won't have time to be on here after the festive season, the sharp linguistic play is one of the things I missed about PB.
  • AveryLP
    AveryLP Posts: 7,815
    oldnat said:

    AveryLP

    Moniker was being very clever with that comment. While I probably won't have time to be on here after the festive season, the sharp linguistic play is one of the things I missed about PB.

    You must give up on your plans to convert businessmen and women to nationalism, oldnat.

    Proper business people are rightly whores when it comes to politics. Tribal allegiance is an irrelevance: what counts is the deal.

    Just think of how much better pleasured you would be on PB.

  • oldnat
    oldnat Posts: 136
    AveryLP

    Why would I want to convert business people to nationalism? The UK has already tried to convert them to their nationalism (and somewhat dismally failed).

    I'll leave it to "Business for Scotland", "Wealthy Nation" and others to persuade Scots entrepreneurs that their self-interest is best served by an indy Scotland operating within the European Single Market.

    I'll just get on with talking to people, giving them information, and letting them make up their own minds.
  • oldnat
    oldnat Posts: 136
    And, because tradition is important - Nytol.
  • Tim_B
    Tim_B Posts: 7,669
    I have noticed this year - for the first time - use of the term 'Boxing Day' in the TV media to describe this day.

    It's just a regular work day here but the fact that American media is using the term is interesting, particularly by such as Dana Perino, who is married to a brit and has lived in Lytham St Annes.
  • AveryLP
    AveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited December 2013
    oldnat said:

    AveryLP

    Why would I want to convert business people to nationalism? The UK has already tried to convert them to their nationalism (and somewhat dismally failed).

    I'll leave it to "Business for Scotland", "Wealthy Nation" and others to persuade Scots entrepreneurs that their self-interest is best served by an indy Scotland operating within the European Single Market.

    I'll just get on with talking to people, giving them information, and letting them make up their own minds.

    To be fair to the UK, I am not sure it has tried to convert business to its own form of nationalism.

    You have to go back to before Thatcher to the "Buy British" campaigns of the 1970s and the ill-fated attempts to preserve our British car industry to find a UK government that hasn't worshipped at the altar of global corporatism.

    Even Eck was at it in spurring on 'Sir' Fred towards global domination.

    I believe we are all much happier making cars for the Indians, Japanese and Germans.

  • AndyJS
    AndyJS Posts: 29,395
    "The following UK water utility companies fluoridate their supply:

    Anglian Water Services Ltd
    Northumbrian Water Ltd
    South Staffordshire Water plc
    Severn Trent plc
    United Utilities Water plc"

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fluoridation_by_country
  • AndyJS
    AndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Interesting that fluoridation is quite popular in English speaking countries but not in most mainland European countries.
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    Tears for Piers
  • AndyJS
    AndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Piers Morgan vs Brett Lee:

    http://www.theguardian.com/sport/video/2013/dec/27/piers-morgan-brett-lee-over-cricket?CMP=twt_gu
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