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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The must win the for LAB on May 3rd – Barnet with its sizeable
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The must win the for LAB on May 3rd – Barnet with its sizeable Jewish communities
A long-standing PBer with great knowledge of London local elections has emailed me to suggest that the 11/4 on a CON majority on Barnet Council in next month’s local is a “good value bet”.
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http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2018/03/25/why-i-think-you-should-be-laying-the-1-8-favourite-for-barnet-council/
If Corbyn takes Barnet with all this happening we have to assume he is favourite for the next election.
... to grow marijuana
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-43729218
"Meanwhile, the House speaker whom Mr Ryan replaced - John Boehner - announced on Twitter he is joining the board of a legal cannabis corporation "because my thinking on cannabis has evolved".
The Ohio Republican, who retired from politics in 2015, once said he was "unalterably opposed" to legalising marijuana."
I am happy with the 4/1 I have, not sure I would take 11/4.
Labour are just so close to taking control that they require a 0% swing overall - it gets swept up in the nature of UNS.
That leaves 9 seats in three wards. Hale is 2 Con, 1 Lab. Childs Hill is 2 Con, 1 Lib Dem, with Labour a close third. Brunswick Park is 2 Lab 1 Con. Hale is 19% Jewish, Childs Hill 17% Jewish, Brunswick Park only 5% Jewish. I expect that Jews will be fired up to vote, so the proportion among the voters in the first two wards will probably exceed 20%.
Odds of 11-4 on a coin toss are very generous.
What is more interesting is what will happen across England as a whole. If current polling is true (big if of course) and there is no great differential on motivation there may well be a modest swing from Labour to the Tories. I can see a scenario where Labour has net gains in the capital but these are offset to some degree by losses elsewhere with the Tories doing the reverse. In short I think May will prove to be a bit of a draw which from the government perspective would not be a bad result at all.
https://twitter.com/SkyNewsBreak/status/984094298659540992
Perhaps he knows the vote might not take place.
Over 60s dominate political leadership on both sides of the Atlantic at the moment after a period when 40 to 50 year olds held sway
However, basing this on the idea of a block Jewish vote is unwise. That vote will already have been largely Conservative in 2014:
https://www.thejc.com/news/uk-news/huge-majority-of-british-jews-will-vote-tory-jc-poll-reveals-1.66001
Jewish voters can mark their X more forcefully but such votes don't count more. The most that it might do is increase Conservative turnout among such voters.
But, I think they could make a difference in the very tight wards of Hale and Childs Hill. Most will have voted Conservative, in 2014, or for the sole Lib Dem, Cllr. Jack Cohen, who clung on by 9 votes in 2014. Even small shifts in support/turnout could be decisive in those two wards.
Comparing local with GE?
https://youtu.be/RyJJu5KmPY4
So what do the Police do?
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/6027070/hither-green-murder-shrine-henry-vincent-burglary-richard-osborn-brooks/
https://twitter.com/jessebyrnes/status/984104563748802560
No.
But since Parliament has always been able to override the Royal Prerogative on such matters anyway by the simple expedient of sacking the government I'm not sure how much difference it makes in practice.
Yes, in such a close race 11/4 looks decent value and 1/4 far too skinny.
I don't actually think the "sizeable Jewish vote" will make that much difference. Perhaps of more interest, Barnet has the second highest proportion of residents aged 65+ (only Bromley is higher) and if the theories about Corbyn's "appeal" to older voters have any validity, it may be that which saves the Conservatives.
Looking at the various Wards, I make it LAB 30 CON 27 and two Wards too close to call. One is Childs Hill where the Conservatives have two Councillors and the LDs. The other is Hale which split CON 2 LAB 1 four years ago.
In Childs Hill all three sitting Councillors are re-standing but although they missed out completely in 2014, Labour were close behind with their three candidates all polling better than the two non-elected LDs and the lead Labour candidate was only 37 behind the non-elected Conservative so this could go any or every way.
In Hale the Labour winner edged out the non-elected Conservative by just nine votes last time with the second Labour candidates only 16 votes behind the non-elected Conservative so another knife-edge marginal. To confuse matters, none of the sitting Councillors are standing again.
Will demographic change have been enough to shift Hale fully Labour ? If so, they'll have 33 and it won't matter how Childs Hill turns out.
I suppose the other possibility is Childs Hill and Hale continue to split and Barnet ends up 31-31-1 which would make the 12/1 NOM a sound bet.
Its probably going to take the US a few more days to get their assets in position anyway.
I think there have to be situations where the government should always retain the ability to act, that's one reason we have an executive in the first place, but the trend feels towards parliament becoming increasingly necessary, for better and for worse.
Indeed, I'd happily lay the three favourites in the betting - Biden, Sanders and Warren - all day long.
I live in West Finchley and have had 2 leaflets from Labour already. Nothing from anybody else. Ok it is a Labour ward but with the vote in the borough on a knife edge and the Conservatives already having lost their Majority after the deselection row you’d have thought they would be going out of the way to persuade people to vote Conservative. Makes me think they already think the borough is lost or maybe Labour is worried.
I worked for Barnet for many years and still have friends who work there. There is the expectation from the staff that Labour will take it.
Who cares? "Nothing has changed"
If so they deserve a shellacking. But for some reason my fellow voters won't give it to them. Heck, I'm as bad, I still voted Tory last year despite them sending me precisely nothing!
Laying flowers for someone - however distasteful - does not come under the heading of intimidation.
We have no right not to be offended. Sometimes, like this case, that seems harsh. But the alternative, where the state criminalises behaviour because of how it makes someone feel, is much worse.
And it’s not even clear that Pelosi is an electoral liability anymore (though only because Democrats feel free to disavow her from time to time):
https://www.politico.com/story/2018/03/14/democrats-likely-to-disavow-pelosi-lamb-pennsylvania-417425
What a wasted opportunity.
Although I've got a lot more anger for our courts. I was a burglary victim once, chased the guy out of my house and got his reg plate, he was arrested and pled guilty to mine and 19 other break-ins. Was given a 12 month suspended sentence - no jail time at all. Straight back on the street to do it again.
Vote LD in the local Council Elections toStop BREXIT!!