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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why we should focus much more on leader ratings and less on vo

The publication of two sets of leader ratings by Deltapoll and YouGov over the weekend has put a lot of attention on these regular trackers which the records suggest are a better guide to what will happen in elections than voting intention polls.
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http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2017/06/04/the-polling-that-should-worry-mrs-may-and-all-tories/
On leader ratings in 2017 Corbyn should have won
http://www.deltapoll.co.uk/breaking-the-grip
https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/983310477135671297
Corbyn certainly campaigned very well in 2017.
So, for example, while Mr Corbyn may be having a torrid time over anti-semitism, as long as Labour is not cocking up and is still seen to be doing a reasonable job then their position might not be that badly affected.
Its always tricky separating cause from effect. In a previous life we had a heck of a job getting consumers to rank toilet soaps 'they're all the same'. But when we asked them 'which one would you put out for guests' big differences became apparent.
https://twitter.com/shaunwalker7/status/983316347181522944
But at the time, plenty of people (and I think I might have been one of them) thought he wasn't campaigning very well at all. There were controversies about numbers and spending etc. that you'd imagine a slicker campaign could have avoided.
I still think ultimately people liked the manifesto/set of policies and that once they got a chance to hear about it they warmed to Labour.
The expression of certainty that the UK is leaving reflects the increasingly pragmatic nature of the European commission after months of being told by the prime minister, Theresa May, that Brexit means leaving the customs union and the single market, the cornerstones of the EU.
But it will be a setback to figures such as Tony Blair and Lord Adonis, who have recently intensified their campaign to reverse Brexit, and to campaigners within the Labour party, including the Brexit shadow secretary, Keir Starmer, who want a vote on the political exit deal in October.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/apr/09/eu-leaders-have-accepted-that-uk-will-not-cancel-brexit?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter
One for the engineering geek. Below is a photo of the mandrel that SpaceX will be using to create the carbon-fibre tanks for their BFS spaceship.
https://www.instagram.com/p/BhVk3y3A0yB/
It's certainly big!
https://twitter.com/LOS_Fisher/status/983341751569211392
https://twitter.com/DavidHerdson/status/983331721004412929
Though the style of SpaceX cars - aside from the original LotusRoadster, leaves me a little cold. They're not sexy.
https://twitter.com/LOS_Fisher/status/983341751569211392
Public backs fresh referendum to have 'final say' on terms of Brexit deal
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-second-referendum-theresa-may-final-deal-eu-autumn-negotiations-a8294986.html
The public don't back a 'fresh referendum' - the oppose another 'vote' - but they do support a 'final say'......
And as a further aside, here is the inside a Saturn V LOX tank, with people for scale. The BFS will be a metre smaller in diameter:
https://www.pinterest.co.uk/pin/519743613219175282/
Not that it matters, other than in any blowback effect once there's no second vote / final say given - but even that is likely to be minimal, given that the 'deal' in the autumn / winter will just be one of several stages in the process.
Good afternoon, everyone.
Bashar al-Saddat any myself have similar tastes in music.
Let John Oliver explain.
https://youtu.be/3lKYPp2Kp6s
Mr. Eagles, taking a sprout for a walk is clearly the act of a madman.
Also, my post-race analysis of a very interesting Bahrain Grand Prix is up here: http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2018/04/bahrain-post-race-analysis.html
Edited extra bit: Mr. Urquhart, your post reminds me of the Chuckle Brothers. Speaking of which, if anyone missed their game of 'real life' Hitman from a couple of years back, they really should find it on Youtube. It's the best promotional video for a videogame there's perhaps ever been.
A new centrist party might make a breakthrough but it will need:
1. A capable and effective leader;
2. Policies - what is it *for*, as well as what is it against;
3. to decide whether it is truly centrist or is it centre-left;
4. A sizable and early parliamentary caucus;
5. Early electoral success in by-elections or local elections;
6. how it handles the Lib Dems - competition or alliance;
7. Activists - big donors and MPs don't leaflet or canvass, and it'd start with no data;
8. Labour to collapse - En March was walking over the corpse of PS; Labour is polling four times what the French socialists did;
9. The unions to defect: as long as they fund Labour, it will be a meaningful presence;
10. A great slice of good luck.
The truth is out! Instead of dying in a plane crash, Yuri Gagarin was really encased up to his neck in concrete in Belgrade!
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/blogs-news-from-elsewhere-43701570
Taking off the centrist/europhile flanks of Labour and the Tories would be the aim, and could be enough.
FPTP only leaves space for two big parties, so the new one would have to displace one of the existing ones if it's going to have a future. But how do you replace the Tories, when they've got the 30% of the electorate that is pro-Brexit and right-of-centre under lock and key? You can't - you have to replace Labour. But to do that you really need to target them from day 1, which means you have to be social democrat in nature.
However, the risk in doing so is that you end up with something like a 41-24-20-7 split, leaving the Tories with a massive majority on a relatively small share.
Frankly, this centrist Dad just wants a social democratic party of power to vote for. I don't care what name that party has or how it comes about. A new party can succeed or fail, it just needs to be pivotal in the process of making that happen.
What the centre needs is a vision and tbh Prospect isn't going to get any such vision across - it seems to be full of people and policy papers saying 'we need a vision'. A new party might just crystallize some actual ideas. That is one reason why I don't intend to follow SO's call to arms.
The one thing Mr Herdson misses out re the new party is timing - part of LREMs success was to still be in honeymoon at election time, something the SDP (and Theresa May) flunked.
The Marquis of Granby and the Viscount Goderich were both considerably worse than Jezza.
Not to be confined to one party, convincing cases could be made for Arthur Henderson, Lord Rosebery and Herbert Asquith as well.
Also, surprised to hear (from Mr. Urquhart) there is a second season as I gathered the studio behind it had gone bust/been taken over.
Lansbury was worse.
Good move by Amber and maybe Chuka is signalling a move away from Corbyn
A new centre party anyone
AIUI (and IANAE) the BFS' Achilles heel is that it is fairly inefficient when it comes to deep space travel: it is a system mainly designed to get things efficiently off Earth and into LEO. To be good in deep space, you need to use liquid hydrogen/oxygen - as the SLS and (as recently announced) the New Glenn second stage.
https://twitter.com/agentathcliath/status/983334639124254720
The cry for an alternative "not the others" party is negative rather than positive and I still hold to my views from yesterday - here
https://www.conservativehome.com/leftwatch/2018/04/exclusive-labour-party-bame-officer-shares-graphic-equating-israel-and-nazi-germany.html?utm_campaign=twitter&utm_medium=twitter&utm_source=twitter