politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Suddenly TMay’s survival chances look a lot stronger
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Suddenly TMay’s survival chances look a lot stronger
There’s a Betfair market that hasn’t attracted much attention or liquidity on which of May/Corbyn/Cable/Sturgeon will be the first leader out. I think it would have been better to confine it to the PM and LOTO.
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https://twitter.com/robertsjonathan/status/978742121040621568
But as far as the main parties are concerned:
1) May is a poor campaigner and Tory MPs can get rid of a leader easily and quickly;
2) Corbyn has the proven backing of his membership and will remain in place for as long as he keeps them and his health remains good, irrespective of what his MPs think.
Summer next year remains a very risky time for May. If not then, then 2021. I really don't think she'll be allowed to fight another election.
Didn't hurt Jez.
Brexit (transition)
Brexit (end state)
Growing economy
Low unemployment
Growing real wages
Sustained increase in NHS spending
High housebuilding
Foreign policy credibility
As an admirer whose hopes were dashed at 10pm on 8th June 2017, I would like her to redeem herself. The media would love the rematch narrative, and it would play in her favour.
This is a terribly illiquid BF market, so not much values, but I reckon it will all be over by Christmas for Vince.
Putting Brexit to one side, we haven't had a recession since 2009 so the chance of one cropping up before 2022 is pretty high. That would change things considerably.
When she called the GE, Con were around 43 to 45 in the polls and on the day they got 43.5% (GB).
OK, they went up in the polls just after the GE was called and then eased back down a bit - but they still finished where they started.
And that was with the bad campaign and the awful manisfesto.
So with a decent manifesto and a better campaign which learns lessons from 2017 (and even allowing for the fact May isn't a great campaigner) it seems entirely possible that May might well do absolutely fine.
You may be right.
His "I condemn all violence" line doesn't work in such a serious situation, and his pitifully inadequate response to this is a firm nail in the coffin of his prime ministerial ambitions.
This will have been noticed by millions of people who don't remember the IRA, and surely can only be ignored by his most sycophantic acolytes.
The extreme Corbynites are loud, but there are nowhere near enough of them. Laying Corbyn for next PM would look great if May weren't looking so secure - there might well not be a payout for some years.
My recommendation for May at 17/2 to last until 2020 just before the first phase of EU negotiations concluded is looking quite good.
Unless May, or the leave campaign, or the Jews murdered Skripal. In which case Jezza's nailed on.
https://twitter.com/glasgowcathcart/status/978724255222419456
https://twitter.com/jamesdoleman/status/978745555055710208
http://uk.businessinsider.com/poll-labour-would-go-backwards-under-yvette-cooper-or-chuka-umunna-2017-5
May 2017 - 13 Tory seats in Scotland
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This was already the case last year, wasn't it? The BES polling found that people thought Labour had the "better policies", but the Conservatives had the "better leadership".
Ergo, if anyone except May was leading the Tories last year, Corbyn would now be PM.
Anti-semitism and Salisbury are very much live issues. Very much something where his record as Leader is under scrutiny - not his past as a pointless backbencher. What he said and did then was of no real significance. What he has done since becoming Leader is.
His refusal or inability to deal with anti-semitism, the misogyny of those around him and the language they use to express it has also gone uncondemned let alone punished. His mishandling of the events in Salisbury. All of that is stuff where his current record is key. And it is very much easier to attack him for things he has done in the past couple of years.
There's a reason that NO sitting Prime Minister has been forced out by their own party in recent times (no, not Thatcher - it was ultimately her decision to quit).
The terrible event at Grenfell played right into JC's strengths and TM's weaknesses.
The terrible event at Salisbury was the exact opposite,
As ever, betting markets over-react.
Who knows what event is next?
80% to be first out was always a nonsense. So was Corbyn at 2%.
So far, I don’t see too much sign the May team have seriously thought about how to appeal to say, those under 40 voters in terms of serious policy offers. Recently, I saw a Telegraph article in which said that the Tory pitch to younger voters was going to be tell us how bad socialism was in the 1970s. That doesn’t exactly spark great hope that they’ve learned lessons.
If you can’t look after yourself why trust them with the country.
A downtrodden and demented Celtic fan in need of a job with a poor fake.
I've really warmed to her, and Ed, over the last couple of years, and I think they would be a solid couple to restore Labour's credibility. I'm aware this change in feeling may be influenced by their lack of enthusiasm for Corbyn.
I've never found Umunna at all convincing. I think he'd be a weak Labour leader.
I'm a tory who's glad we're leaving the EU, so unlikely to be a trusted advisor for Labour folk
houses built...lots of talk. Little in the way of concrete action, in particular confronting well-organised and funded NIMBY and BANANA groups of Tory-leaning voters and their allies in Tory Councils. This is essential. A sine non qua.
Promoting talent. Often reminds me of the footy fan who says we've a really good Youth team. 1 in 10 of them make it. And there isn't a good youth team anyway. 3 months ago Gavin Williamson was good.
http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2016/06/30/the-weight-of-brexit-leave-vote-is-higher-in-areas-of-higher-obesity/
Scruffs like Foot, Brown and Corbyn all lost elections.
Jess Phillips would be a great PM.
Unless he is prepared to overrule a Conservative Council there will be no new houses actually built before the next GE.
I do understand all parties will play it for local popularity, but Central govt needs to get tough, even if it means alienating its own supporters.