politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » How the EU hierarchy is losing supportive governments

First!

And yet, not one comment about 'why' this is happening to the EU...

Penddu said:

For some political news not connected to Brexit, there is a new political party being formed in Wales - called Ein Gwlad (Our Country) and whose primary objective is to achieve Welsh Independence. The party is neither left wing or right wing but 'Welsh Wing' - a syncretic party that will prioritise policies that benefit Wales and moves us towards independence.

Despite the name it is not a Welsh language party and the name was deliberately chosen to be recognisable to English speakers (think National Anthem) - if someone is not happy voting for a party with a Welsh name it probably wouldnt vote for it whatever the name....

It's target audience is not just former Plaid voters or supporters of movements like Yes Cymru - but also the many people in Wales who are fed up with traditional politics and want something different.

Neither is the party a Plaid splinter group - rather we are trying to build a wider national alliance more like SNP

The party is already organising and in the process of submitting Electoral Commission registration, and expects to be officially launched in a few weeks time. Watch this space

Interesting, but how is that different to Plaid? Is it that Plaid is not radical enough and is more gradualist?

The EU = Spurs

Superficially attractive on the outside but in reality they have people who annoy good people.

Dele Alli is just like Jean-Claude Juncker.

Good morning all.

Barbs aside, an interesting article. I remain slightly surprised that enlargement is back on the agenda, given some of the internal frictions.

OT, this current predilection for creating new political parties puts me in mind of this;

Mr. Slackbladder, it's the natural friction caused by two diametrically opposing forces. The EU must integrate because it wants to take lots of decisions, and that requires (in an over-sized confederation of 27/28) national power to be eroded and aggregated instead to the centre. At the same time, democratic freedom requires that the electorates of nation states have the capacity to elect and hold accountable those who wield power over them.

The seeming answer would be to massively beef up the European Parliament. However, despite the wet dreams of bureaucratic buffoons you cannot simply wish away centuries of culture and identity. Not only that, freedom of action, to diverge or converge, is necessary for the flexibility required by the member states as their sizes, economies, cultures and demographics differ. Leaving aside that there is no European demos, the Parliament becoming powerful would simply lead to imposition of unwanted laws upon smaller nations that lack the representation to mount a parliamentary resistance.

It's almost as if trying to integrate 27/28 countries into a new country by stealth, deception, and bureaucratic trickery is a bloody stupid idea.

TheScreamingEagles said:

The EU = Spurs

Superficially attractive on the outside but in reality they have people who annoy good people.

Dele Alli is just like Jean-Claude Juncker.

The EU = Arsenal

Its thinking underpinned by an old French guy, who should long ago have been abndoned to the history books.

Good header Alastair. What the British cynics don't get is how popular the Euro is. It's the glue that holds together even the major recalcitrant nations in your column 4.

If Brexit goes ahead the likelihood is that it'll be the collapse of the pound that'll bring us back and next time they'll demand we rejoin as full members and that'll include the Euro.

rottenborough said:

it's italy we should be watching:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2018/03/07/whoever-governs-italy-will-destroy-euro-within/

Firstly, it's by AEP, the doom-monger's doom-monger.

Secondly, as Alastair points out, the EU is pretty much immune to sturm und drang within individual countries. Brexit is, as we can all see, extremely challenging in execution. A eurozone member, even one with Italy's economic clout, would find it even more difficult.

Thirdly, from our purely selfish national interests, we would prefer the EU to prosper; some one has to buy (say) our genuine Cornish Pasties.

There are some tricky waters for them to navigate; the proposed linking of economic aid to support for EU migrant policies is not sitting well with the Visegrad group, and Austria is likely to align with them on this issue.

Based on the Commission's own reports, completing EMU and drawing other countries within the Eurozone is also likely to cause problems, even within the core group - Germany is singularly reluctant to shoulder its obligations.

TheScreamingEagles said:

The EU = Spurs

Superficially attractive on the outside but in reality they have people who annoy good people.

Dele Alli is just like Jean-Claude Juncker.

EU=Man City. Wealthy stable attractive and arguably the best club in the world.

Roger said:

Good header Alastair. What the British cynics don't get is how popular the Euro is. It's the glue that holds together even the major recalcitrant nations in your column 4.

Half of column 4 isn't in the Euro.....

Penddu said:

For some political news not connected to Brexit, there is a new political party being formed in Wales - called Ein Gwlad (Our Country) and whose primary objective is to achieve Welsh Independence. The party is neither left wing or right wing but 'Welsh Wing' - a syncretic party that will prioritise policies that benefit Wales and moves us towards independence.

Despite the name it is not a Welsh language party and the name was deliberately chosen to be recognisable to English speakers (think National Anthem) - if someone is not happy voting for a party with a Welsh name it probably wouldnt vote for it whatever the name....

It's target audience is not just former Plaid voters or supporters of movements like Yes Cymru - but also the many people in Wales who are fed up with traditional politics and want something different.

Neither is the party a Plaid splinter group - rather we are trying to build a wider national alliance more like SNP

The party is already organising and in the process of submitting Electoral Commission registration, and expects to be officially launched in a few weeks time. Watch this space

I don't sing the national anthem a lot, but I don't remember anything about "our country" - seemed to be all about the health and even wealth (pouring precious goods on her head) of the Queen. Why would Ein Gwlad sound recognisable?

There's the American "Our Country, 'Tis of Thee", of course, but that's not an anthem and a long way from Wales.

CarlottaVance said:

Roger said:

Good header Alastair. What the British cynics don't get is how popular the Euro is. It's the glue that holds together even the major recalcitrant nations in your column 4.

Half of column 4 isn't in the Euro.....

I had an interesting discussion with an EU fanatic last night. His view ... as the Remain vote was 48%, that should be taken heed of.
"How?"
A look of incomprehension.
"We should only 52% leave?" I asked.
"Yes."
"So if Remain had won 52 - 48, then we should 48% leave?"
"No, we stay."

I understand his pain, but as the EU always assures us, we can't be half in and half out, even though that is the Labour position.

EU to Hungary: "Follow the rules!"
Hungary to EU: "You didn't"

https://www.politico.eu/article/hungary-blasts-commissions-double-standards-on-martin-selmayr/

HYUFD said:

Penddu said:

For some political news not connected to Brexit, there is a new political party being formed in Wales - called Ein Gwlad (Our Country) and whose primary objective is to achieve Welsh Independence. The party is neither left wing or right wing but 'Welsh Wing' - a syncretic party that will prioritise policies that benefit Wales and moves us towards independence.

Despite the name it is not a Welsh language party and the name was deliberately chosen to be recognisable to English speakers (think National Anthem) - if someone is not happy voting for a party with a Welsh name it probably wouldnt vote for it whatever the name....

It's target audience is not just former Plaid voters or supporters of movements like Yes Cymru - but also the many people in Wales who are fed up with traditional politics and want something different.

Neither is the party a Plaid splinter group - rather we are trying to build a wider national alliance more like SNP

The party is already organising and in the process of submitting Electoral Commission registration, and expects to be officially launched in a few weeks time. Watch this space

Probably good news for Unionists in Wales as it will split the nationalist vote under FPTP which is currently dominated by Plaid.

Though of course with Plaid still nowhere near becoming the largest party in Wales in either Assembly or Westminster elections, Wales having voted Leave in the EU referendum like the rest of the UK and its economy tightly linked to England there is virtually zero demand for Welsh independence in the principality anyway

Who said anything about FPTP?

Putin and the kleptocrats are one and the same; Britain could end this vile nonsense at a stroke by freezing the squillions that the kleptocrats have stuffed in banks in the British Overseas territories. That would finish Putin off faster than any premier cru nerve gas. I am not quite sure why HMG are dithering around

Fame at last! Mr Meeks.....

https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/971674374938951680

John_M said:

rottenborough said:

it's italy we should be watching:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2018/03/07/whoever-governs-italy-will-destroy-euro-within/

Firstly, it's by AEP, the doom-monger's doom-monger.

Secondly, as Alastair points out, the EU is pretty much immune to sturm und drang within individual countries. Brexit is, as we can all see, extremely challenging in execution. A eurozone member, even one with Italy's economic clout, would find it even more difficult.

Thirdly, from our purely selfish national interests, we would prefer the EU to prosper; some one has to buy (say) our genuine Cornish Pasties.

There are some tricky waters for them to navigate; the proposed linking of economic aid to support for EU migrant policies is not sitting well with the Visegrad group, and Austria is likely to align with them on this issue.

Based on the Commission's own reports, completing EMU and drawing other countries within the Eurozone is also likely to cause problems, even within the core group - Germany is singularly reluctant to shoulder its obligations.

Yes, I know he is the voice of economic doom. But still, the potential of a parallel Italian currency and subsequent bond riot has got to be a serious problem for the Euro bankers.

Oh dear. Another Meeks classic. A potentially informative thread header ruined by his own bigotries and straw men.

Our conclusion is that most estimates of the impact of Brexit in the UK, both short-term and long-term, have exaggerated the degree of potential damage to the UK economy. We stress at this point that this is not a politically-driven exercise. Most of the four-person team behind the research for this and our other papers voted ‘Remain’ in the 2016 referendum and would do so again if given the chance. Our purpose is rather to establish a sound basis for the ongoing debate on the likely potential economic impact of Brexit, and more generally to question the quality of economic analysis in dealing with major, macroeconomic policy issue like Brexit.

http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2018/03/08/how-the-economics-profession-got-it-wrong-on-brexit/

John_M said:

rottenborough said:

it's italy we should be watching:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2018/03/07/whoever-governs-italy-will-destroy-euro-within/

Firstly, it's by AEP, the doom-monger's doom-monger.

Secondly, as Alastair points out, the EU is pretty much immune to sturm und drang within individual countries. Brexit is, as we can all see, extremely challenging in execution. A eurozone member, even one with Italy's economic clout, would find it even more difficult.

Thirdly, from our purely selfish national interests, we would prefer the EU to prosper; some one has to buy (say) our genuine Cornish Pasties.

There are some tricky waters for them to navigate; the proposed linking of economic aid to support for EU migrant policies is not sitting well with the Visegrad group, and Austria is likely to align with them on this issue.

Based on the Commission's own reports, completing EMU and drawing other countries within the Eurozone is also likely to cause problems, even within the core group - Germany is singularly reluctant to shoulder its obligations.

When I was on holiday in Italy last year there was real evidence of anti EU feeling even to the extent the euro flag on the beaches around Genoa was replaced by the Union Jack. The receptionist at our hotel hated the EU and blamed it for all it's woes.

I have no doubt that the new Italian government will be a thorn in the side of the EU with it's vow to disregard hundreds of EU regulations and question it's overall contributions.

Time will tell but they are not going to be bowing at the Court of Monsieur Juncker

TheScreamingEagles said:

The EU = Spurs

Superficially attractive on the outside but in reality they have people who annoy good people.

Dele Alli is just like Jean-Claude Juncker.

https://twitter.com/coral/status/971498375727276032

Penddu said:

HYUFD said:

Penddu said:

For some political news not connected to Brexit, there is a new political party being formed in Wales - called Ein Gwlad (Our Country) and whose primary objective is to achieve Welsh Independence. The party is neither left wing or right wing but 'Welsh Wing' - a syncretic party that will prioritise policies that benefit Wales and moves us towards independence.

Despite the name it is not a Welsh language party and the name was deliberately chosen to be recognisable to English speakers (think National Anthem) - if someone is not happy voting for a party with a Welsh name it probably wouldnt vote for it whatever the name....

It's target audience is not just former Plaid voters or supporters of movements like Yes Cymru - but also the many people in Wales who are fed up with traditional politics and want something different.

Neither is the party a Plaid splinter group - rather we are trying to build a wider national alliance more like SNP

The party is already organising and in the process of submitting Electoral Commission registration, and expects to be officially launched in a few weeks time. Watch this space

Probably good news for Unionists in Wales as it will split the nationalist vote under FPTP which is currently dominated by Plaid.

Though of course with Plaid still nowhere near becoming the largest party in Wales in either Assembly or Westminster elections, Wales having voted Leave in the EU referendum like the rest of the UK and its economy tightly linked to England there is virtually zero demand for Welsh independence in the principality anyway

Who said anything about FPTP?

Well it is used for Welsh Westminster, council and constituency Assembly seat elections

CarlottaVance said:

Roger said:

Good header Alastair. What the British cynics don't get is how popular the Euro is. It's the glue that holds together even the major recalcitrant nations in your column 4.

Half of column 4 isn't in the Euro.....

I was thinking of Greece and Italy as the major recalcitrant nations and neither would give up membership beacause of the popularity of the Euro. Nothing would persuade the Italians to go back to the Lira and even Greece with their ruined economy showed no desire to return to the Drachma

Ishmael_Z said:

Penddu said:

NickPalmer said:

Penddu said:

For some political news not connected to Brexit, there is a new political party being formed in Wales - called Ein Gwlad (Our Country) and whose primary objective is to achieve Welsh Independence. The party is neither left wing or right wing but 'Welsh Wing' - a syncretic party that will prioritise policies that benefit Wales and moves us towards independence.

Despite the name it is not a Welsh language party and the name was deliberately chosen to be recognisable to English speakers (think National Anthem) - if someone is not happy voting for a party with a Welsh name it probably wouldnt vote for it whatever the name....

It's target audience is not just former Plaid voters or supporters of movements like Yes Cymru - but also the many people in Wales who are fed up with traditional politics and want something different.

Neither is the party a Plaid splinter group - rather we are trying to build a wider national alliance more like SNP

The party is already organising and in the process of submitting Electoral Commission registration, and expects to be officially launched in a few weeks time. Watch this space

I don't sing the national anthem a lot, but I don't remember anything about "our country" - seemed to be all about the health and even wealth (pouring precious goods on her head) of the Queen. Why would Ein Gwlad sound recognisable?

There's the American "Our Country, 'Tis of Thee", of course, but that's not an anthem and a long way from Wales.

I am sure you know this but I am talking about OUR national anthem not YOURS...and in particular the chorus line of Gwlad....Gwlad.... you know the one!

You saying the national anthem is not Men of Harlech? Cwm on, you cannot be serious.

And we were singing hymns and arias,
'Land of my Fathers', 'Ar hyd y nos'.

CarlottaVance said:

Fame at last! Mr Meeks.....

https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/971674374938951680

Ali will always be AntiFrank to me.

Interesting.analysis. Britain is no longer in the hostile group. By leaving the EU it becomes irrelevant to it.

Roger said:

HYUFD said:

Roger said:

CarlottaVance said:

Roger said:

Good header Alastair. What the British cynics don't get is how popular the Euro is. It's the glue that holds together even the major recalcitrant nations in your column 4.

Half of column 4 isn't in the Euro.....

I was thinking of Greece and Italy as the major recalcitrant nations and neither would give up membership beacause of the popularity of the Euro. Nothing would persuade the Italians to go back to the Lira and even Greece with their ruined economy showed no desire to return to the Drachma

If the next Italian PM is Salvini he opposes the Euro, while Di Maio the other alternative is less than enthusiastic about it

As Slackbladder said it's like crack. it doesn't matter what Salvini thinks. The people are addicted.

Until the addiction becomes worse for you than it doesn't.

HYUFD said:

Penddu said:

NickPalmer said:

Penddu said:

For some political news not connected to Brexit, there is a new political party being formed in Wales - called Ein Gwlad (Our Country) and whose primary objective is to achieve Welsh Independence. The party is neither left wing or right wing but 'Welsh Wing' - a syncretic party that will prioritise policies that benefit Wales and moves us towards independence.

Despite the name it is not a Welsh language party and the name was deliberately chosen to be recognisable to English speakers (think National Anthem) - if someone is not happy voting for a party with a Welsh name it probably wouldnt vote for it whatever the name....

It's target audience is not just former Plaid voters or supporters of movements like Yes Cymru - but also the many people in Wales who are fed up with traditional politics and want something different.

Neither is the party a Plaid splinter group - rather we are trying to build a wider national alliance more like SNP

The party is already organising and in the process of submitting Electoral Commission registration, and expects to be officially launched in a few weeks time. Watch this space

I don't sing the national anthem a lot, but I don't remember anything about "our country" - seemed to be all about the health and even wealth (pouring precious goods on her head) of the Queen. Why would Ein Gwlad sound recognisable?

There's the American "Our Country, 'Tis of Thee", of course, but that's not an anthem and a long way from Wales.

I am sure you know this but I am talking about OUR national anthem not YOURS...and in particular the chorus line of Gwlad....Gwlad.... you know the one!

God Save the Queen is of course the proper anthem of both England and Wales as part of the UK

I prefer the 1977 version TBH

Theuniondivvie said:

Mortimer said:

Roger said:

Good header Alastair. What the British cynics don't get is how popular the Euro is. It's the glue that holds together even the major recalcitrant nations in your column 4.

If Brexit goes ahead the likelihood is that it'll be the collapse of the pound that'll bring us back and next time they'll demand we rejoin as full members and that'll include the Euro.

You heard it from Rogerdamus first.

So, the pound is bound to be safe.

You heard it from Mortydamus first.

No way will the SPD vote for coalition with the CDU.

I hope they don't but if they do will be good news for Die Linke

Who on earth doesn't want the EU to implode?

Theuniondivvie said:

bigjohnowls said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Mortimer said:

Roger said:

Good header Alastair. What the British cynics don't get is how popular the Euro is. It's the glue that holds together even the major recalcitrant nations in your column 4.

If Brexit goes ahead the likelihood is that it'll be the collapse of the pound that'll bring us back and next time they'll demand we rejoin as full members and that'll include the Euro.

You heard it from Rogerdamus first.

So, the pound is bound to be safe.

You heard it from Mortydamus first.

No way will the SPD vote for coalition with the CDU.

I hope they don't but if they do will be good news for Die Linke

They already have.

Oh silly them then.

CarlottaVance said:

Our conclusion is that most estimates of the impact of Brexit in the UK, both short-term and long-term, have exaggerated the degree of potential damage to the UK economy. We stress at this point that this is not a politically-driven exercise. Most of the four-person team behind the research for this and our other papers voted ‘Remain’ in the 2016 referendum and would do so again if given the chance. Our purpose is rather to establish a sound basis for the ongoing debate on the likely potential economic impact of Brexit, and more generally to question the quality of economic analysis in dealing with major, macroeconomic policy issue like Brexit.

http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2018/03/08/how-the-economics-profession-got-it-wrong-on-brexit/

That is an interesting, and in many respects persuasive report.

Having said that, it is based on (probably valid) critiques of models, and has little to say about particular sectors (finance; automotive; aerospace; pharmaceutical etc) which face significant threats in the absence of a decent deal with the EU.

(It also has nothing to say about the costs/benefits of being in or out of the single market should a significant trade war break out.)

Morris_Dancer said:

F1: the McLaren hasn't broken down today, as yet.

And a reminder that, head on, the Williams and Sauber look really similar. I think the Sauber has a pale rear wing, the Williams a dark one. Expecting much confusion over the season given the similarity.

One of them added a load of fluorescent green flo vis paint yesterday, which looked rather good against the white livery. Maybe they ought to adopt that as a permanent feature ... ?

Richard_Tyndall said:

Oh dear. Another Meeks classic. A potentially informative thread header ruined by his own bigotries and straw men.

And another classic ad hom...

Awb683 said:

Who on earth doesn't want the EU to implode?

Seem to remember that the US had a problem, around the 1860's when some of the states didn't like what was happening in Washington DC. There seems to be some here who would quite like a similar outcome in Europe. They forget that many countries have already experienced war, invasion, occupation and have decided that they like the thought of their children and grandchildren living in peace.

Mr. Eye, au contraire. Some of us fear that the longer it takes the EU to fall the worse the consequences. The more integration, the more the pain of disentangling the dead octopus' tentacles.

Mind you, I do get a whiff of nostalgia from the suggestion that those not in favour of the EU are therefore in favour of (or at least not very concerned by) the prospect of a massive war.

Richard_Tyndall said:

Oh dear. Another Meeks classic. A potentially informative thread header ruined by his own bigotries and straw men.

I thought it was amusing and well written. Of course it exaggerates greatly the position of Leavers but there is undoubtedly a thread of Leavers who have been gleefully predicting the inevitable collapse of the Euro since its inception. The passing of every "inevitable" point simply leads them onto the next one. AEP is a good example of this mindset. They simply cannot come to terms with the political commitment that is widely spread across Europe.

Personally, I wish the EU well. Their somewhat belated return to growth has undoubtedly helped us to reduce our trade gap, increase production and grow faster than forecast. Long may that continue.

I think Alastair is wrong to describe the UK as hostile. I really don't believe it is. If the peoples of Europe really think that a European State which controls their budgets, their taxes and their priorities along with their currency and interest rates is better than the alternatives good luck to them. I just don't believe that there will ever be a majority in the UK for that option. @WilliamGlenn and a few others are openly and candidly for it. But most remainers continue to delude themselves that all of the price that had to be paid was in leaving when in fact the price of staying was unacceptable.

Every cloud.....
BREXIT has undermined support for the SNP rather than boosting backing for independence and made life harder for Nicola Sturgeon, the country’s leading pollster has said.

Professor Sir John Curtice said the SNP’s opposition to Brexit had alienated many Leave voters who had previously supported the party, and cost it dearly in votes.

Around a third of people who voted SNP in the 2016 Holyrood election went on to vote for Brexit a few weeks later, and many of those never returned to the SNP

http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/16072971.Curtice__Brexit_has_made_life_tougher_for_Sturgeon_and_SNP/?ref=twtrec

Stark_Dawning said:

An excellent piece. I was disappointed with Nigel Farage. Before Brexit his line was very much 'Although EU membership isn't for us, we fully respect the decisions of the other members and wish them well with their project.' Yet after Brexit he was stomping around the continent trying to wreck everything in sight and throwing his weight behind dubious far-Right elements. It made me question the man's true motivations all along. Was Brexit merely to provide technocratic benefits for the UK, or was it only ever intended as a catalyst for chaos and destruction on a far vaster scale?

Or is he just an egocentric buffoon who likes to be on the Telly?

Nigelb said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Oh dear. Another Meeks classic. A potentially informative thread header ruined by his own bigotries and straw men.

And another classic ad hom...

Since that forms the basis of Mr Meeks whole thesis I am simply responding in kind.

OchEye said:

Nigelb said:

CarlottaVance said:

Our conclusion is that most estimates of the impact of Brexit in the UK, both short-term and long-term, have exaggerated the degree of potential damage to the UK economy. We stress at this point that this is not a politically-driven exercise. Most of the four-person team behind the research for this and our other papers voted ‘Remain’ in the 2016 referendum and would do so again if given the chance. Our purpose is rather to establish a sound basis for the ongoing debate on the likely potential economic impact of Brexit, and more generally to question the quality of economic analysis in dealing with major, macroeconomic policy issue like Brexit.

http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2018/03/08/how-the-economics-profession-got-it-wrong-on-brexit/

That is an interesting, and in many respects persuasive report.

Having said that, it is based on (probably valid) critiques of models, and has little to say about particular sectors (finance; automotive; aerospace; pharmaceutical etc) which face significant threats in the absence of a decent deal with the EU.

(It also has nothing to say about the costs/benefits of being in or out of the single market should a significant trade war break out.)

We haven't left yet

Indeed - but the report is an analysis of the various best and worst case predictions of what might happen when we do.
I am not as sanguine as the authors appear to be about the risks of leaving, but the critiques they present are sensible ones.

Spurs played very well but were unlucky.At least Dier Dele Alli and Kane are holding down first team places.England will do well to play well.Many of Englands current top players are not in their clubs first teams.The best English tournament of the last 16 years was Ashley Cole and he has retired.

Scott_P said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

The EU = Spurs

Superficially attractive on the outside but in reality they have people who annoy good people.

Dele Alli is just like Jean-Claude Juncker.

https://twitter.com/coral/status/971498375727276032

GIN1138 said:

Stark_Dawning said:

An excellent piece. I was disappointed with Nigel Farage. Before Brexit his line was very much 'Although EU membership isn't for us, we fully respect the decisions of the other members and wish them well with their project.' Yet after Brexit he was stomping around the continent trying to wreck everything in sight and throwing his weight behind dubious far-Right elements. It made me question the man's true motivations all along. Was Brexit merely to provide technocratic benefits for the UK, or was it only ever intended as a catalyst for chaos and destruction on a far vaster scale?

I've never been much of a fan of Farage but to be fair he has never disguised the fact he'd like to see the EU and Euro implode and let all the "States" of the EU go back to being independent trading nations again like there were in the days of the Common Market.

The days of the Common Market when we had a European Commission, Parliament, ECJ and common commercial policy?

I think your comment just highlights how many practical barriers there are to a true implosion of the EU.

CarlottaVance said:

Nigelb said:

CarlottaVance said:

Our conclusion is that most estimates of the impact of Brexit in the UK, both short-term and long-term, have exaggerated the degree of potential damage to the UK economy. We stress at this point that this is not a politically-driven exercise. Most of the four-person team behind the research for this and our other papers voted ‘Remain’ in the 2016 referendum and would do so again if given the chance. Our purpose is rather to establish a sound basis for the ongoing debate on the likely potential economic impact of Brexit, and more generally to question the quality of economic analysis in dealing with major, macroeconomic policy issue like Brexit.

http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2018/03/08/how-the-economics-profession-got-it-wrong-on-brexit/

That is an interesting, and in many respects persuasive report.

Having said that, it is based on (probably valid) critiques of models, and has little to say about particular sectors (finance; automotive; aerospace; pharmaceutical etc) which face significant threats in the absence of a decent deal with the EU.

(It also has nothing to say about the costs/benefits of being in or out of the single market should a significant trade war break out.)

Yes - but a lot of the EU propaganda argument was based on an oft repeated lie misapprehension:

The Brexit debate has been distorted by several myths. One of the most persistent and widely repeated is that the economic performance of the UK improved after joining the EEC in 1973. This claim was made by the OECD and was regularly stated in the media during the Brexit referendum campaign.

I need to read it in more detail; my eyebrows were raised by the assertion that long run GVA per capita is essentially unchanged under any Brexit deal, and that London's GVA/capita would actually rise, again, irrespective of the deal.

DavidL said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Oh dear. Another Meeks classic. A potentially informative thread header ruined by his own bigotries and straw men.

But most remainers continue to delude themselves that all of the price that had to be paid was in leaving when in fact the price of staying was unacceptable.

what was the price of staying?

The nature of contemporary and future technology and industry makes that impossible. See JC's example of the Mini going back and forward to France to have the cam angle sensor (or whatever the fuck it was) fitted. Enterprises, industry and technology is now transnational and therefore so must be the economic and political framework in which they operate.

Scott_P said:

DavidL said:

Some of us of course predicted this when being assured that a vote for leave was a vote to break up the United Kingdom.

*cough*Northern Ireland*cough*

You think NI is going to be leaving the UK? When and do you want a bet on it?

But in any event my prediction was that Brexit would make life more difficult for the SNP for exactly the reasons that Curtice has identified.

DavidL said:

CarlottaVance said:

Every cloud.....
BREXIT has undermined support for the SNP rather than boosting backing for independence and made life harder for Nicola Sturgeon, the country’s leading pollster has said.

Professor Sir John Curtice said the SNP’s opposition to Brexit had alienated many Leave voters who had previously supported the party, and cost it dearly in votes.

Around a third of people who voted SNP in the 2016 Holyrood election went on to vote for Brexit a few weeks later, and many of those never returned to the SNP

http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/16072971.Curtice__Brexit_has_made_life_tougher_for_Sturgeon_and_SNP/?ref=twtrec

Some of us of course predicted this when being assured that a vote for leave was a vote to break up the United Kingdom.

One of those assurers being 'our' current prime minister.

https://twitter.com/Roadwarrior29/status/970244963664572416