politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Moggy still leads Jez in the “PM after TMay” betting
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Moggy still leads Jez in the “PM after TMay” betting
Data/chart via Betdata.io
Comments
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His Moggesty.0
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Boris is more likely to be the next PM and should swap places with Mogg who is more likely to be next leader of the opposition if Corbyn becomes PM0
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His pivot to the centre after the Mansion House speech was masterly, and makes him look a lot more serious.0
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Amber Rudd too high. She is not the answer after May.0
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FPT
The problem with this is we have agreed to basically stay in the EU, including all payments and FOM, but without any voting rights whatsoever, during transition.
That’s bearable for 18 months, maybe - but for 5 years?
https://twitter.com/chrisgreybrexit/status/9707563377675345940 -
And another one chips in.
If we are truly heading toward a 5 year or 10 year transition, then we must surely negotiate some kind of institutional presence and voting ability. The alternative is unthinkable, surely?
https://twitter.com/davidallengreen/status/9707570186540441600 -
Late entrant Tracey Crouch soon to burst on to the board....?0
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Like membership?Gardenwalker said:If we are truly heading toward a 5 year or 10 year transition, then we must surely negotiate some kind of institutional presence and voting ability.
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If PBTories were really convinced that the single thing wrong with the 2017 campaign was that May did bad interviews, then I suppose Rudd would make some sense -- she is better at thinking on her feet and improvising than May is.MarqueeMark said:Amber Rudd too high. She is not the answer after May.
Obviously I think the Tories are on a hiding to nothing if they think that was the only thing wrong in 2017, though.0 -
It's in Ireland's interests to delay Brexit indefinitely I think. I mean it's in ours too - the Tories will be slaughtered if it happens though, the leave switchers won't bother heading to the polls whilst remainers all switch over to Corbyn (I mean obviously the Tories will get ~ 9 million core vote but not the people that make a difference in the election though)Gardenwalker said:And another one chips in.
If we are truly heading toward a 5 year or 10 year transition, then we must surely negotiate some kind of institutional presence and voting ability. The alternative is unthinkable, surely?
https://twitter.com/davidallengreen/status/9707570186540441600 -
Tonight's Matt cartoon is very good.0
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Evening all
What would be the political price of extending transition ? At the moment, we leave the EU in March 2019 (except we don't really) and how long will people tolerate the limbo of being in the club with no say, continued Freedom of Movement and having to obey EU laws ?
Sounds like a political death warrant.0 -
One thing is for certain, neither a majority of Tory MPs nor Tory members will allow the transition period to extend up to 2022, it has to have ended by the time of the next general electionstodge said:Evening all
What would be the political price of extending transition ? At the moment, we leave the EU in March 2019 (except we don't really) and how long will people tolerate the limbo of being in the club with no say, continued Freedom of Movement and having to obey EU laws ?
Sounds like a political death warrant.0 -
Yes, Brexit is being walked back at a rapid pace.Scott_P said:
Like membership?Gardenwalker said:If we are truly heading toward a 5 year or 10 year transition, then we must surely negotiate some kind of institutional presence and voting ability.
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Agreed. Personally FoM have never been a concern of mine, and I'm sanguine on a long transition on the basis of better done right than quick (if they cannot be one and the same), but it sounds like a very hard sell, at the least with present governing arrangements.stodge said:Evening all
What would be the political price of extending transition ? At the moment, we leave the EU in March 2019 (except we don't really) and how long will people tolerate the limbo of being in the club with no say, continued Freedom of Movement and having to obey EU laws ?
Sounds like a political death warrant.0 -
You hopeHYUFD said:
One thing is for certain, neither Tory MPs nor Tory members will allow the transition period to extend up to 2022, it has to have ended by the time of the next general electionstodge said:Evening all
What would be the political price of extending transition ? At the moment, we leave the EU in March 2019 (except we don't really) and how long will people tolerate the limbo of being in the club with no say, continued Freedom of Movement and having to obey EU laws ?
Sounds like a political death warrant.0 -
On paper, our voting rights were only ever level pegging with Malta and Latvia, I believe (plus a bit more in QMV votes for the additional population). What counts isn't voting rights but having Big Men near the levers of power by virtue of being, e.g., trade commissioners, which obv isn't going to happen. Any voting rights we do retain will be a fig leaf.Gardenwalker said:FPT
The problem with this is we have agreed to basically stay in the EU, including all payments and FOM, but without any voting rights whatsoever, during transition.
That’s bearable for 18 months, maybe - but for 5 years?
https://twitter.com/chrisgreybrexit/status/9707563377675345940 -
So BINO it is?HYUFD said:
One thing is for certain, neither a majority of Tory MPs nor Tory members will allow the transition period to extend up to 2022, it has to have ended by the time of the next general electionstodge said:Evening all
What would be the political price of extending transition ? At the moment, we leave the EU in March 2019 (except we don't really) and how long will people tolerate the limbo of being in the club with no say, continued Freedom of Movement and having to obey EU laws ?
Sounds like a political death warrant.0 -
Democrats up by 3pct in latest PA House district poll. A significant upset could be on the cards in a district Trump won by 20 points
http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/376762-dem-holds-slim-lead-in-pa-special-election-poll
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Sounds like a recipe for Corbyn disasterMikeSmithson said:
You hopeHYUFD said:
One thing is for certain, neither Tory MPs nor Tory members will allow the transition period to extend up to 2022, it has to have ended by the time of the next general electionstodge said:Evening all
What would be the political price of extending transition ? At the moment, we leave the EU in March 2019 (except we don't really) and how long will people tolerate the limbo of being in the club with no say, continued Freedom of Movement and having to obey EU laws ?
Sounds like a political death warrant.0 -
Did I imagine Peter Mandelson happening?Ishmael_Z said:
On paper, our voting rights were only ever level pegging with Malta and Latvia, I believe (plus a bit more in QMV votes for the additional population). What counts isn't voting rights but having Big Men near the levers of power by virtue of being, e.g., trade commissioners, which obv isn't going to happen. Any voting rights we do retain will be a fig leaf.Gardenwalker said:FPT
The problem with this is we have agreed to basically stay in the EU, including all payments and FOM, but without any voting rights whatsoever, during transition.
That’s bearable for 18 months, maybe - but for 5 years?
https://twitter.com/chrisgreybrexit/status/9707563377675345940 -
Forever, probably.stodge said:Evening all
What would be the political price of extending transition ? At the moment, we leave the EU in March 2019 (except we don't really) and how long will people tolerate the limbo of being in the club with no say, continued Freedom of Movement and having to obey EU laws ?
Sounds like a political death warrant.
Something has to give; a worthwhile relationship with the continent we inhabit, leaving the EU, or having a say on the rules we follow.0 -
Yes , I keep saying , the long good transition implementation period, looks nailed onto me.FF43 said:
So BINO it is?HYUFD said:
One thing is for certain, neither a majority of Tory MPs nor Tory members will allow the transition period to extend up to 2022, it has to have ended by the time of the next general electionstodge said:Evening all
What would be the political price of extending transition ? At the moment, we leave the EU in March 2019 (except we don't really) and how long will people tolerate the limbo of being in the club with no say, continued Freedom of Movement and having to obey EU laws ?
Sounds like a political death warrant.0 -
No, but you seem to have a modal verb issue. "isn't going to" = won't, future, sorta thing. Or do you foresee a similar appointment of a UK pol in a (future) transition period?williamglenn said:
Did I imagine Peter Mandelson happening?Ishmael_Z said:
On paper, our voting rights were only ever level pegging with Malta and Latvia, I believe (plus a bit more in QMV votes for the additional population). What counts isn't voting rights but having Big Men near the levers of power by virtue of being, e.g., trade commissioners, which obv isn't going to happen. Any voting rights we do retain will be a fig leaf.Gardenwalker said:FPT
The problem with this is we have agreed to basically stay in the EU, including all payments and FOM, but without any voting rights whatsoever, during transition.
That’s bearable for 18 months, maybe - but for 5 years?
https://twitter.com/chrisgreybrexit/status/9707563377675345940 -
I am sure you are right, but why is that so?HYUFD said:
One thing is for certain, neither a majority of Tory MPs nor Tory members will allow the transition period to extend up to 2022, it has to have ended by the time of the next general electionstodge said:Evening all
What would be the political price of extending transition ? At the moment, we leave the EU in March 2019 (except we don't really) and how long will people tolerate the limbo of being in the club with no say, continued Freedom of Movement and having to obey EU laws ?
Sounds like a political death warrant.0 -
How can the conservative members object ?HYUFD said:
One thing is for certain, neither a majority of Tory MPs nor Tory members will allow the transition period to extend up to 2022, it has to have ended by the time of the next general electionstodge said:Evening all
What would be the political price of extending transition ? At the moment, we leave the EU in March 2019 (except we don't really) and how long will people tolerate the limbo of being in the club with no say, continued Freedom of Movement and having to obey EU laws ?
Sounds like a political death warrant.0 -
If the transition is really 5-10 years long then the most likely way it will end is the UK rejoining the EU0
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Because they do not trust Labour not to renege and decide to keep us in.Recidivist said:
I am sure you are right, but why is that so?HYUFD said:
One thing is for certain, neither a majority of Tory MPs nor Tory members will allow the transition period to extend up to 2022, it has to have ended by the time of the next general electionstodge said:Evening all
What would be the political price of extending transition ? At the moment, we leave the EU in March 2019 (except we don't really) and how long will people tolerate the limbo of being in the club with no say, continued Freedom of Movement and having to obey EU laws ?
Sounds like a political death warrant.0 -
LOL. The Remaniac delusions are a sight to behold.williamglenn said:
Yes, Brexit is being walked back at a rapid pace.Scott_P said:
Like membership?Gardenwalker said:If we are truly heading toward a 5 year or 10 year transition, then we must surely negotiate some kind of institutional presence and voting ability.
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The Tory members are irrelevant. For the MPs, if it's a choice of that or economic mayhem with an ensuing Corbyn government, they'll opt for the former. The romantic whimsies of Hannan, Mogg etc. will have to be indulged another day if everything's about to blow up.HYUFD said:
One thing is for certain, neither a majority of Tory MPs nor Tory members will allow the transition period to extend up to 2022, it has to have ended by the time of the next general electionstodge said:Evening all
What would be the political price of extending transition ? At the moment, we leave the EU in March 2019 (except we don't really) and how long will people tolerate the limbo of being in the club with no say, continued Freedom of Movement and having to obey EU laws ?
Sounds like a political death warrant.0 -
Transition = zero representation in anything. It’s political purgatory.Ishmael_Z said:
No, but you seem to have a modal verb issue. "isn't going to" = won't, future, sorta thing. Or do you foresee a similar appointment of a UK pol in a (future) transition period?williamglenn said:
Did I imagine Peter Mandelson happening?Ishmael_Z said:
On paper, our voting rights were only ever level pegging with Malta and Latvia, I believe (plus a bit more in QMV votes for the additional population). What counts isn't voting rights but having Big Men near the levers of power by virtue of being, e.g., trade commissioners, which obv isn't going to happen. Any voting rights we do retain will be a fig leaf.Gardenwalker said:FPT
The problem with this is we have agreed to basically stay in the EU, including all payments and FOM, but without any voting rights whatsoever, during transition.
That’s bearable for 18 months, maybe - but for 5 years?
https://twitter.com/chrisgreybrexit/status/970756337767534594
To say that our influence as a member was on a par with Malta is simply absurd.0 -
Good question - I have no idea and I am a memberYorkcity said:
How can the conservative members object ?HYUFD said:
One thing is for certain, neither a majority of Tory MPs nor Tory members will allow the transition period to extend up to 2022, it has to have ended by the time of the next general electionstodge said:Evening all
What would be the political price of extending transition ? At the moment, we leave the EU in March 2019 (except we don't really) and how long will people tolerate the limbo of being in the club with no say, continued Freedom of Movement and having to obey EU laws ?
Sounds like a political death warrant.0 -
Surely that's an argument for a rapid or better still no transition? You are starting to make sense at last.williamglenn said:Transition = zero representation in anything. It’s political purgatory.
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I am obviously going through a lucidity deficit. I was *contrasting* voting rights, in which we are +/- on a par with Malta and Latvia, with *influence* of which we used to have a great deal (and a great deal more than M and L), and pointing out that in the future (that's the stuff that hasn't happened yet), bare - and virtually worthless - voting rights are the best we can hope for, and scarcely worth having.williamglenn said:
Transition = zero representation in anything. It’s political purgatory.Ishmael_Z said:
No, but you seem to have a modal verb issue. "isn't going to" = won't, future, sorta thing. Or do you foresee a similar appointment of a UK pol in a (future) transition period?williamglenn said:
Did I imagine Peter Mandelson happening?Ishmael_Z said:
On paper, our voting rights were only ever level pegging with Malta and Latvia, I believe (plus a bit more in QMV votes for the additional population). What counts isn't voting rights but having Big Men near the levers of power by virtue of being, e.g., trade commissioners, which obv isn't going to happen. Any voting rights we do retain will be a fig leaf.Gardenwalker said:FPT
The problem with this is we have agreed to basically stay in the EU, including all payments and FOM, but without any voting rights whatsoever, during transition.
That’s bearable for 18 months, maybe - but for 5 years?
https://twitter.com/chrisgreybrexit/status/970756337767534594
To say that our influence as a member was on a par with Malta is simply absurd.0 -
Maybe if Leave had won 70/30 on a clear understanding of lean times ahead. It actually won 52/48 on the promise of sunlit uplands. Leave needs to deliver a Brexit that is at least tolerable. There isn't a mandate for burnt bridges and scorched earth.glw said:
Surely that's an argument for a rapid or better still no transition? You are starting to make sense at last.williamglenn said:Transition = zero representation in anything. It’s political purgatory.
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No, I know. It would be political suicide for the Tory Party to go into the next general election with 70% of its voters having voted Leave with the UK still in the EU in all but name.MikeSmithson said:
You hopeHYUFD said:
One thing is for certain, neither Tory MPs nor Tory members will allow the transition period to extend up to 2022, it has to have ended by the time of the next general electionstodge said:Evening all
What would be the political price of extending transition ? At the moment, we leave the EU in March 2019 (except we don't really) and how long will people tolerate the limbo of being in the club with no say, continued Freedom of Movement and having to obey EU laws ?
Sounds like a political death warrant.
UKIP would not believe their luck and Farage would come back to lead them in an instant0 -
I suspect this is a load of rubbish. Perhaps the Whitehall Mandarins might be thinking this but it can't seriously be in the works.Pulpstar said:
It's in Ireland's interests to delay Brexit indefinitely I think. I mean it's in ours too - the Tories will be slaughtered if it happens though, the leave switchers won't bother heading to the polls whilst remainers all switch over to Corbyn (I mean obviously the Tories will get ~ 9 million core vote but not the people that make a difference in the election though)Gardenwalker said:And another one chips in.
If we are truly heading toward a 5 year or 10 year transition, then we must surely negotiate some kind of institutional presence and voting ability. The alternative is unthinkable, surely?
https://twitter.com/davidallengreen/status/9707570186540441600 -
Well to do that Labour would have to win the general election promising to do so. It doesn't suggest much confidence in the Brexit project if that is a real risk.Richard_Tyndall said:
Because they do not trust Labour not to renege and decide to keep us in.Recidivist said:
I am sure you are right, but why is that so?HYUFD said:
One thing is for certain, neither a majority of Tory MPs nor Tory members will allow the transition period to extend up to 2022, it has to have ended by the time of the next general electionstodge said:Evening all
What would be the political price of extending transition ? At the moment, we leave the EU in March 2019 (except we don't really) and how long will people tolerate the limbo of being in the club with no say, continued Freedom of Movement and having to obey EU laws ?
Sounds like a political death warrant.0 -
Not by 2022, by then we will have Brexited, the transition will have ended and we will be out of the single market with free movement having ended and probably out of the customs union tooFF43 said:
So BINO it is?HYUFD said:
One thing is for certain, neither a majority of Tory MPs nor Tory members will allow the transition period to extend up to 2022, it has to have ended by the time of the next general electionstodge said:Evening all
What would be the political price of extending transition ? At the moment, we leave the EU in March 2019 (except we don't really) and how long will people tolerate the limbo of being in the club with no say, continued Freedom of Movement and having to obey EU laws ?
Sounds like a political death warrant.0 -
By engaging in Momentum like mass deselections but by then UKIP would probably be on 25% in the polls anyway if we were still in the single market with free movementYorkcity said:
How can the conservative members object ?HYUFD said:
One thing is for certain, neither a majority of Tory MPs nor Tory members will allow the transition period to extend up to 2022, it has to have ended by the time of the next general electionstodge said:Evening all
What would be the political price of extending transition ? At the moment, we leave the EU in March 2019 (except we don't really) and how long will people tolerate the limbo of being in the club with no say, continued Freedom of Movement and having to obey EU laws ?
Sounds like a political death warrant.0 -
Funny, I don't remember seeing sunlit uplands on the ballot paper.FF43 said:
Maybe if Leave had won 70/30 on a clear understanding of lean times ahead. It actually won 52/48 on the promise of sunlit uplands. Leave needs to deliver a Brexit that is at least tolerable. There isn't a mandate for burnt bridges and scorched earth.glw said:
Surely that's an argument for a rapid or better still no transition? You are starting to make sense at last.williamglenn said:Transition = zero representation in anything. It’s political purgatory.
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If the Tory MPs vote to keep perpetual transition they will be signing their own death warrant, we could well see a Canada 1993 scenario with the Tories facing a Progressive Conservative style annihilation and UKIP or a new Farage/Banks led Party becoming the main party of the right.Stark_Dawning said:
The Tory members are irrelevant. For the MPs, if it's a choice of that or economic mayhem with an ensuing Corbyn government, they'll opt for the former. The romantic whimsies of Hannan, Mogg etc. will have to be indulged another day if everything's about to blow up.HYUFD said:
One thing is for certain, neither a majority of Tory MPs nor Tory members will allow the transition period to extend up to 2022, it has to have ended by the time of the next general electionstodge said:Evening all
What would be the political price of extending transition ? At the moment, we leave the EU in March 2019 (except we don't really) and how long will people tolerate the limbo of being in the club with no say, continued Freedom of Movement and having to obey EU laws ?
Sounds like a political death warrant.
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https://twitter.com/vote_leave/status/744908829901611008?s=21RobD said:
Funny, I don't remember seeing sunlit uplands on the ballot paper.FF43 said:
Maybe if Leave had won 70/30 on a clear understanding of lean times ahead. It actually won 52/48 on the promise of sunlit uplands. Leave needs to deliver a Brexit that is at least tolerable. There isn't a mandate for burnt bridges and scorched earth.glw said:
Surely that's an argument for a rapid or better still no transition? You are starting to make sense at last.williamglenn said:Transition = zero representation in anything. It’s political purgatory.
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But you did see burnt bridges and scorched earth on the ballot paper?RobD said:
Funny, I don't remember seeing sunlit uplands on the ballot paper.FF43 said:
Maybe if Leave had won 70/30 on a clear understanding of lean times ahead. It actually won 52/48 on the promise of sunlit uplands. Leave needs to deliver a Brexit that is at least tolerable. There isn't a mandate for burnt bridges and scorched earth.glw said:
Surely that's an argument for a rapid or better still no transition? You are starting to make sense at last.williamglenn said:Transition = zero representation in anything. It’s political purgatory.
In any case I was talking about the Leave campaign, not the ballot paper.0 -
Really?not_on_fire said:If the transition is really 5-10 years long then the most likely way it will end is the UK rejoining the EU
I think that's extremely unlikely.
If we were to have a five year transition, then I would expect that it would be staggered. (Making up things below rather than proposing this exact schedule...)
So, X + 1 day, we leave the CFP and CAP, and are able to negotiate our own trade deals.
X + 1 year, leave single market, with free movement, and the following EU administered bodies (ESA, Erasmus, etc.)
X + 3 years, leave more EU administered bodies.
X + 5 years, formally leave customs union having negotiated replacement deals.0 -
That’s simply wrong though. How many MEPs do we have versus Malta? What is our QMV voting weight versus Malta?Ishmael_Z said:
I am obviously going through a lucidity deficit. I was *contrasting* voting rights, in which we are +/- on a par with Malta and Latvia, with *influence* of which we used to have a great deal (and a great deal more than M and L), and pointing out that in the future (that's the stuff that hasn't happened yet), bare - and virtually worthless - voting rights are the best we can hope for, and scarcely worth having.williamglenn said:
Transition = zero representation in anything. It’s political purgatory.Ishmael_Z said:
No, but you seem to have a modal verb issue. "isn't going to" = won't, future, sorta thing. Or do you foresee a similar appointment of a UK pol in a (future) transition period?williamglenn said:
Did I imagine Peter Mandelson happening?Ishmael_Z said:
On paper, our voting rights were only ever level pegging with Malta and Latvia, I believe (plus a bit more in QMV votes for the additional population). What counts isn't voting rights but having Big Men near the levers of power by virtue of being, e.g., trade commissioners, which obv isn't going to happen. Any voting rights we do retain will be a fig leaf.Gardenwalker said:FPT
The problem with this is we have agreed to basically stay in the EU, including all payments and FOM, but without any voting rights whatsoever, during transition.
That’s bearable for 18 months, maybe - but for 5 years?
https://twitter.com/chrisgreybrexit/status/970756337767534594
To say that our influence as a member was on a par with Malta is simply absurd.0 -
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Burnt bridges and scorched earth? Positively utopian compared to the predictions of the Remain campaign.glw said:
On the ballot paper? No, but there was plenty of that coming from the Remain camp. Yet it didn't frighten the electorate enough in the end.FF43 said:But you did see burnt bridges and scorched earth on the ballot paper?
0 -
Never Gonna Give EU Up.Gardenwalker said:And another one chips in.
If we are truly heading toward a 5 year or 10 year transition, then we must surely negotiate some kind of institutional presence and voting ability. The alternative is unthinkable, surely?
https://twitter.com/davidallengreen/status/9707570186540441600 -
So a certain Eurasian power is "allegedly" back to its old habit of poisoning people in the UK. Do Labour MPs really want to have as Prime Minister someone who was a paid employee of the Kremlin's propaganda TV?0
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Cameron suggested the Irish border would be moved and now that’s on the cards Brexiteers are losing it.glw said:
On the ballot paper? No, but there was plenty of that coming from the Remain camp. Yet it didn't frighten the electorate enough in the end.FF43 said:But you did see burnt bridges and scorched earth on the ballot paper?
https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/743054573716295681?s=210 -
No William, no matter how much you might wish it, it is not on the cards. Just as stopping Brexit is not on the cards, or joining the Euro or any of the other lunatic things you believe might happen.williamglenn said:
Cameron suggested the Irish border would be moved and now that’s on the cards Brexiteers are losing it.glw said:
On the ballot paper? No, but there was plenty of that coming from the Remain camp. Yet it didn't frighten the electorate enough in the end.FF43 said:But you did see burnt bridges and scorched earth on the ballot paper?
https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/743054573716295681?s=210 -
Would it matter if you had 30 personal votes if you were a Labour voter in a safe Tory seat?williamglenn said:
That’s simply wrong though. How many MEPs do we have versus Malta? What is our QMV voting weight versus Malta?Ishmael_Z said:
I am obviously going through a lucidity deficit. I was *contrasting* voting rights, in which we are +/- on a par with Malta and Latvia, with *influence* of which we used to have a great deal (and a great deal more than M and L), and pointing out that in the future (that's the stuff that hasn't happened yet), bare - and virtually worthless - voting rights are the best we can hope for, and scarcely worth having.williamglenn said:
Transition = zero representation in anything. It’s political purgatory.Ishmael_Z said:
No, but you seem to have a modal verb issue. "isn't going to" = won't, future, sorta thing. Or do you foresee a similar appointment of a UK pol in a (future) transition period?williamglenn said:
Did I imagine Peter Mandelson happening?Ishmael_Z said:
On paper, our voting rights were only ever level pegging with Malta and Latvia, I believe (plus a bit more in QMV votes for the additional population). What counts isn't voting rights but having Big Men near the levers of power by virtue of being, e.g., trade commissioners, which obv isn't going to happen. Any voting rights we do retain will be a fig leaf.Gardenwalker said:FPT
The problem with this is we have agreed to basically stay in the EU, including all payments and FOM, but without any voting rights whatsoever, during transition.
That’s bearable for 18 months, maybe - but for 5 years?
https://twitter.com/chrisgreybrexit/status/970756337767534594
To say that our influence as a member was on a par with Malta is simply absurd.0 -
Jesus Christ on a bike, I expressly reserved the QMV/population point in my last post but one. My point was purely that any rights which we retain *during a future transitional period* will be next to worthless. I did not say that they were worthless when we were full members. Had I thought that, I would probably have voted Leave. I didn't, so I didn't. Fin.williamglenn said:
That’s simply wrong though. How many MEPs do we have versus Malta? What is our QMV voting weight versus Malta?Ishmael_Z said:
I am obviously going through a lucidity deficit. I was *contrasting* voting rights, in which we are +/- on a par with Malta and Latvia, with *influence* of which we used to have a great deal (and a great deal more than M and L), and pointing out that in the future (that's the stuff that hasn't happened yet), bare - and virtually worthless - voting rights are the best we can hope for, and scarcely worth having.williamglenn said:
Transition = zero representation in anything. It’s political purgatory.Ishmael_Z said:
No, but you seem to have a modal verb issue. "isn't going to" = won't, future, sorta thing. Or do you foresee a similar appointment of a UK pol in a (future) transition period?williamglenn said:
Did I imagine Peter Mandelson happening?Ishmael_Z said:
On paper, our voting rights were only ever level pegging with Malta and Latvia, I believe (plus a bit more in QMV votes for the additional population). What counts isn't voting rights but having Big Men near the levers of power by virtue of being, e.g., trade commissioners, which obv isn't going to happen. Any voting rights we do retain will be a fig leaf.Gardenwalker said:FPT
The problem with this is we have agreed to basically stay in the EU, including all payments and FOM, but without any voting rights whatsoever, during transition.
That’s bearable for 18 months, maybe - but for 5 years?
https://twitter.com/chrisgreybrexit/status/970756337767534594
To say that our influence as a member was on a par with Malta is simply absurd.0 -
Here’s Steve Baker on RT predicting that the collapse of our system is only a matter of time.Elliot said:So a certain Eurasian power is "allegedly" back to its old habit of poisoning people in the UK. Do Labour MPs really want to have as Prime Minister someone who was a paid employee of the Kremlin's propaganda TV?
https://youtu.be/AljEp0XDRvc0 -
A 10 year transition would destroy Leavers' support for the Tories. A staggered 5 could work.rcs1000 said:
Really?not_on_fire said:If the transition is really 5-10 years long then the most likely way it will end is the UK rejoining the EU
I think that's extremely unlikely.
If we were to have a five year transition, then I would expect that it would be staggered. (Making up things below rather than proposing this exact schedule...)
So, X + 1 day, we leave the CFP and CAP, and are able to negotiate our own trade deals.
X + 1 year, leave single market, with free movement, and the following EU administered bodies (ESA, Erasmus, etc.)
X + 3 years, leave more EU administered bodies.
X + 5 years, formally leave customs union having negotiated replacement deals.0 -
My point is that as long as we are in a transitioon, rejoining the EU will be relatively simple as we’ll be bound to most of their rules. And in 10 years the demographics will shifted in favour of Remain/Rejoin to the point that one of the major parties offers sees it advantageous to offer a referendum in their manifesto.rcs1000 said:
Really?not_on_fire said:If the transition is really 5-10 years long then the most likely way it will end is the UK rejoining the EU
I think that's extremely unlikely.
If we were to have a five year transition, then I would expect that it would be staggered. (Making up things below rather than proposing this exact schedule...)
So, X + 1 day, we leave the CFP and CAP, and are able to negotiate our own trade deals.
X + 1 year, leave single market, with free movement, and the following EU administered bodies (ESA, Erasmus, etc.)
X + 3 years, leave more EU administered bodies.
X + 5 years, formally leave customs union having negotiated replacement deals.
In the case of the European bodies, we’ll be leaving and immediately rejoining as an Associate member to most of them.0 -
That attack line will not work.Elliot said:So a certain Eurasian power is "allegedly" back to its old habit of poisoning people in the UK. Do Labour MPs really want to have as Prime Minister someone who was a paid employee of the Kremlin's propaganda TV?
https://politicalscrapbook.net/2017/10/tory-mps-have-taken-much-money-from-russia-today-than-labour-mps/0 -
The demographic will have changed quite a lot by the next election compared with the EU-Ref. Now, I know we are always told people become more conservative (and Conservative) as they age, and that seems probable, else Conservatism would have died out years ago... But, is there any evidence that, or reason why, people might become more Euro-sceptic?HYUFD said:
No, I know. It would be political suicide for the Tory Party to go into the next general election with 70% of its voters having voted Leave with the UK still in the EU in all but name.MikeSmithson said:
You hopeHYUFD said:
One thing is for certain, neither Tory MPs nor Tory members will allow the transition period to extend up to 2022, it has to have ended by the time of the next general electionstodge said:Evening all
What would be the political price of extending transition ? At the moment, we leave the EU in March 2019 (except we don't really) and how long will people tolerate the limbo of being in the club with no say, continued Freedom of Movement and having to obey EU laws ?
Sounds like a political death warrant.
UKIP would not believe their luck and Farage would come back to lead them in an instant
No. By the time of the next election, even if nobody who voted in June 2016 has changed their mind, there will be a majority for Remain imho.0 -
When we joined the EU, we had a seven year transition period as we moved from Commonwealth preference to the EEC customs union. Really, we only became full EEC members in 1980.Elliot said:
A 10 year transition would destroy Leavers' support for the Tories. A staggered 5 could work.rcs1000 said:
Really?not_on_fire said:If the transition is really 5-10 years long then the most likely way it will end is the UK rejoining the EU
I think that's extremely unlikely.
If we were to have a five year transition, then I would expect that it would be staggered. (Making up things below rather than proposing this exact schedule...)
So, X + 1 day, we leave the CFP and CAP, and are able to negotiate our own trade deals.
X + 1 year, leave single market, with free movement, and the following EU administered bodies (ESA, Erasmus, etc.)
X + 3 years, leave more EU administered bodies.
X + 5 years, formally leave customs union having negotiated replacement deals.0 -
On the other hand Remain promised a year long recession, which depressed the Leave vote share, so it's swings and roundabouts.williamglenn said:
https://twitter.com/vote_leave/status/744908829901611008?s=21RobD said:
Funny, I don't remember seeing sunlit uplands on the ballot paper.FF43 said:
Maybe if Leave had won 70/30 on a clear understanding of lean times ahead. It actually won 52/48 on the promise of sunlit uplands. Leave needs to deliver a Brexit that is at least tolerable. There isn't a mandate for burnt bridges and scorched earth.glw said:
Surely that's an argument for a rapid or better still no transition? You are starting to make sense at last.williamglenn said:Transition = zero representation in anything. It’s political purgatory.
0 -
The Thatcher revolution was really the European revolution. Discuss.rcs1000 said:
When we joined the EU, we had a seven year transition period as we moved from Commonwealth preference to the EEC customs union. Really, we only became full EEC members in 1980.Elliot said:
A 10 year transition would destroy Leavers' support for the Tories. A staggered 5 could work.rcs1000 said:
Really?not_on_fire said:If the transition is really 5-10 years long then the most likely way it will end is the UK rejoining the EU
I think that's extremely unlikely.
If we were to have a five year transition, then I would expect that it would be staggered. (Making up things below rather than proposing this exact schedule...)
So, X + 1 day, we leave the CFP and CAP, and are able to negotiate our own trade deals.
X + 1 year, leave single market, with free movement, and the following EU administered bodies (ESA, Erasmus, etc.)
X + 3 years, leave more EU administered bodies.
X + 5 years, formally leave customs union having negotiated replacement deals.0 -
The cohort who voted in both the 1973 and 2016 EU referendum got more eurosceptic.Benpointer said:
The demographic will have changed quite a lot by the next election compared with the EU-Ref. Now, I know we are always told people become more conservative (and Conservative) as they age, and that seems probable, else Conservatism would have died out years ago... But, is there any evidence that, or reason why, people might become more Euro-sceptic?HYUFD said:
No, I know. It would be political suicide for the Tory Party to go into the next general election with 70% of its voters having voted Leave with the UK still in the EU in all but name.MikeSmithson said:
You hopeHYUFD said:
One thing is for certain, neither Tory MPs nor Tory members will allow the transition period to extend up to 2022, it has to have ended by the time of the next general electionstodge said:Evening all
What would be the political price of extending transition ? At the moment, we leave the EU in March 2019 (except we don't really) and how long will people tolerate the limbo of being in the club with no say, continued Freedom of Movement and having to obey EU laws ?
Sounds like a political death warrant.
UKIP would not believe their luck and Farage would come back to lead them in an instant
No. By the time of the next election, even if nobody who voted in June 2016 has changed their mind, there will be a majority for Remain imho.0 -
The next general election will be at most 6 years after the referendum, given on average the age at which you were more likely to vote Leave than Remain was 45 the vast majority of Leave voters will still be around in 2022 and they make up the vast majority of current Tory votersBenpointer said:
The demographic will have changed quite a lot by the next election compared with the EU-Ref. Now, I know we are always told people become more conservative (and Conservative) as they age, and that seems probable, else Conservatism would have died out years ago... But, is there any evidence that, or reason why, people might become more Euro-sceptic?HYUFD said:
No, I know. It would be political suicide for the Tory Party to go into the next general election with 70% of its voters having voted Leave with the UK still in the EU in all but name.MikeSmithson said:
You hopeHYUFD said:
One thing is for certain, neither Tory MPs nor Tory members will allow the transition period to extend up to 2022, it has to have ended by the time of the next general electionstodge said:Evening all
What would be the political price of extending transition ? At the moment, we leave the EU in March 2019 (except we don't really) and how long will people tolerate the limbo of being in the club with no say, continued Freedom of Movement and having to obey EU laws ?
Sounds like a political death warrant.
UKIP would not believe their luck and Farage would come back to lead them in an instant
No. By the time of the next election, even if nobody who voted in June 2016 has changed their mind, there will be a majority for Remain imho.
http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2016/06/how-the-united-kingdom-voted-and-why/0 -
It would be more a lack of confidence in a Tory party that had let them down and a lack of confidence in the democratic credentials of Labour.Recidivist said:
Well to do that Labour would have to win the general election promising to do so. It doesn't suggest much confidence in the Brexit project if that is a real risk.Richard_Tyndall said:
Because they do not trust Labour not to renege and decide to keep us in.Recidivist said:
I am sure you are right, but why is that so?HYUFD said:
One thing is for certain, neither a majority of Tory MPs nor Tory members will allow the transition period to extend up to 2022, it has to have ended by the time of the next general electionstodge said:Evening all
What would be the political price of extending transition ? At the moment, we leave the EU in March 2019 (except we don't really) and how long will people tolerate the limbo of being in the club with no say, continued Freedom of Movement and having to obey EU laws ?
Sounds like a political death warrant.0 -
So five years after the referendum result?rcs1000 said:
When we joined the EU, we had a seven year transition period as we moved from Commonwealth preference to the EEC customs union. Really, we only became full EEC members in 1980.Elliot said:
A 10 year transition would destroy Leavers' support for the Tories. A staggered 5 could work.rcs1000 said:
Really?not_on_fire said:If the transition is really 5-10 years long then the most likely way it will end is the UK rejoining the EU
I think that's extremely unlikely.
If we were to have a five year transition, then I would expect that it would be staggered. (Making up things below rather than proposing this exact schedule...)
So, X + 1 day, we leave the CFP and CAP, and are able to negotiate our own trade deals.
X + 1 year, leave single market, with free movement, and the following EU administered bodies (ESA, Erasmus, etc.)
X + 3 years, leave more EU administered bodies.
X + 5 years, formally leave customs union having negotiated replacement deals.0 -
I wouldn't want any of those useful idiots as Prime Minister either.TheScreamingEagles said:
That attack line will not work.Elliot said:So a certain Eurasian power is "allegedly" back to its old habit of poisoning people in the UK. Do Labour MPs really want to have as Prime Minister someone who was a paid employee of the Kremlin's propaganda TV?
https://politicalscrapbook.net/2017/10/tory-mps-have-taken-much-money-from-russia-today-than-labour-mps/0 -
Conceivably the older people in 73 voted join, and the youngsters voted out.RobD said:
The cohort who voted in both the 1973 and 2016 EU referendum got more eurosceptic.Benpointer said:
The demographic will have changed quite a lot by the next election compared with the EU-Ref. Now, I know we are always told people become more conservative (and Conservative) as they age, and that seems probable, else Conservatism would have died out years ago... But, is there any evidence that, or reason why, people might become more Euro-sceptic?HYUFD said:
No, I know. It would be political suicide for the Tory Party to go into the next general election with 70% of its voters having voted Leave with the UK still in the EU in all but name.MikeSmithson said:
You hopeHYUFD said:
One thing is for certain, neither Tory MPs nor Tory members will allow the transition period to extend up to 2022, it has to have ended by the time of the next general electionstodge said:Evening all
What would be the political price of extending transition ? At the moment, we leave the EU in March 2019 (except we don't really) and how long will people tolerate the limbo of being in the club with no say, continued Freedom of Movement and having to obey EU laws ?
Sounds like a political death warrant.
UKIP would not believe their luck and Farage would come back to lead them in an instant
No. By the time of the next election, even if nobody who voted in June 2016 has changed their mind, there will be a majority for Remain imho.0 -
You'll upset Robert if you keep on calling Kwasi Kwarteng an idiot.Elliot said:
I wouldn't want any of those useful idiots as Prime Minister either.TheScreamingEagles said:
That attack line will not work.Elliot said:So a certain Eurasian power is "allegedly" back to its old habit of poisoning people in the UK. Do Labour MPs really want to have as Prime Minister someone who was a paid employee of the Kremlin's propaganda TV?
https://politicalscrapbook.net/2017/10/tory-mps-have-taken-much-money-from-russia-today-than-labour-mps/0 -
Is Steve Baker a candidate for leading the UK government?williamglenn said:
Here’s Steve Baker on RT predicting that the collapse of our system is only a matter of time.Elliot said:So a certain Eurasian power is "allegedly" back to its old habit of poisoning people in the UK. Do Labour MPs really want to have as Prime Minister someone who was a paid employee of the Kremlin's propaganda TV?
https://youtu.be/AljEp0XDRvc0 -
Future PM right there. He needs a big promotion.TheScreamingEagles said:
You'll upset Robert if you keep on calling Kwasi Kwarteng an idiot.Elliot said:
I wouldn't want any of those useful idiots as Prime Minister either.TheScreamingEagles said:
That attack line will not work.Elliot said:So a certain Eurasian power is "allegedly" back to its old habit of poisoning people in the UK. Do Labour MPs really want to have as Prime Minister someone who was a paid employee of the Kremlin's propaganda TV?
https://politicalscrapbook.net/2017/10/tory-mps-have-taken-much-money-from-russia-today-than-labour-mps/0 -
Remainers getting terribly excited about the chances of us spending a decade in EU purgatory I see?
0 -
All things are possible but there seems nothing to base that on either, plus unless something big happens well in advance of the next election, the option on the table at it will be rejoin at some point, not remain, which has been assumed to be a harder sell.Benpointer said:
The demographic will have changed quite a lot by the next election compared with the EU-Ref. Now, I know we are always told people become more conservative (and Conservative) as they age, and that seems probable, else Conservatism would have died out years ago... But, is there any evidence that, or reason why, people might become more Euro-sceptic?HYUFD said:
No, I know. It would be political suicide for the Tory Party to go into the next general election with 70% of its voters having voted Leave with the UK still in the EU in all but name.MikeSmithson said:
You hopeHYUFD said:
One thing is for certain, neither Tory MPs nor Tory members will allow the transition period to extend up to 2022, it has to have ended by the time of the next general electionstodge said:Evening all
What would be the political price of extending transition ? At the moment, we leave the EU in March 2019 (except we don't really) and how long will people tolerate the limbo of being in the club with no say, continued Freedom of Movement and having to obey EU laws ?
Sounds like a political death warrant.
UKIP would not believe their luck and Farage would come back to lead them in an instant
No. By the time of the next election, even if nobody who voted in June 2016 has changed their mind, there will be a majority for Remain imho.0 -
He’s already the CFO.MaxPB said:
Future PM right there. He needs a big promotion.TheScreamingEagles said:
You'll upset Robert if you keep on calling Kwasi Kwarteng an idiot.Elliot said:
I wouldn't want any of those useful idiots as Prime Minister either.TheScreamingEagles said:
That attack line will not work.Elliot said:So a certain Eurasian power is "allegedly" back to its old habit of poisoning people in the UK. Do Labour MPs really want to have as Prime Minister someone who was a paid employee of the Kremlin's propaganda TV?
https://politicalscrapbook.net/2017/10/tory-mps-have-taken-much-money-from-russia-today-than-labour-mps/0 -
The problem with the accession in reverse timetable is the lack of desirable alternatives. We like our car and airplane factories with their supply chains. We like our financial services providing tax for healthcare. We don't really want to go back to customs controls on the Irish border. We won't get third country trade arrangements as good as the ones we have already. There will be the temptation to hold back until the alternatives.are better.rcs1000 said:
Really?not_on_fire said:If the transition is really 5-10 years long then the most likely way it will end is the UK rejoining the EU
I think that's extremely unlikely.
If we were to have a five year transition, then I would expect that it would be staggered. (Making up things below rather than proposing this exact schedule...)
So, X + 1 day, we leave the CFP and CAP, and are able to negotiate our own trade deals.
X + 1 year, leave single market, with free movement, and the following EU administered bodies (ESA, Erasmus, etc.)
X + 3 years, leave more EU administered bodies.
X + 5 years, formally leave customs union having negotiated replacement deals.0 -
Agreed, but I was making the point in response to a question about transition being extended beyond the next GE.kle4 said:
All things are possible but there seems nothing to base that on either, plus unless something big happens well in advance of the next election, the option on the table at it will be rejoin at some point, not remain, which has been assumed to be a harder sell.Benpointer said:
The demographic will have changed quite a lot by the next election compared with the EU-Ref. Now, I know we are always told people become more conservative (and Conservative) as they age, and that seems probable, else Conservatism would have died out years ago... But, is there any evidence that, or reason why, people might become more Euro-sceptic?HYUFD said:
No, I know. It would be political suicide for the Tory Party to go into the next general election with 70% of its voters having voted Leave with the UK still in the EU in all but name.MikeSmithson said:
You hopeHYUFD said:
One thing is for certain, neither Tory MPs nor Tory members will allow the transition period to extend up to 2022, it has to have ended by the time of the next general electionstodge said:Evening all
What would be the political price of extending transition ? At the moment, we leave the EU in March 2019 (except we don't really) and how long will people tolerate the limbo of being in the club with no say, continued Freedom of Movement and having to obey EU laws ?
Sounds like a political death warrant.
UKIP would not believe their luck and Farage would come back to lead them in an instant
No. By the time of the next election, even if nobody who voted in June 2016 has changed their mind, there will be a majority for Remain imho.0 -
The ability to do FTAs seems to be becoming less of a selling point for Brexit by the day. Given that, why rush out of the Customs Union?0
-
Surely extending article 50 is more logical than an open ended transition.
0 -
Oh Jacob Rees-Mogg.0
-
Agreed. Any PB-leavers still thinking we will get a beneficial FTA with the US this side of 2025?SouthamObserver said:The ability to do FTAs seems to be becoming less of a selling point for Brexit by the day. Given that, why rush out of the Customs Union?
0 -
18-29 year olds were 61% Remain, in 1975.Foxy said:
Conceivably the older people in 73 voted join, and the youngsters voted out.RobD said:
The cohort who voted in both the 1973 and 2016 EU referendum got more eurosceptic.Benpointer said:
The demographic will have changed quite a lot by the next election compared with the EU-Ref. Now, I know we are always told people become more conservative (and Conservative) as they age, and that seems probable, else Conservatism would have died out years ago... But, is there any evidence that, or reason why, people might become more Euro-sceptic?HYUFD said:
No, I know. It would be political suicide for the Tory Party to go into the next general election with 70% of its voters having voted Leave with the UK still in the EU in all but name.MikeSmithson said:
You hopeHYUFD said:
One thing is for certain, neither Tory MPs nor Tory members will allow the transition period to extend up to 2022, it has to have ended by the time of the next general electionstodge said:Evening all
What would be the political price of extending transition ? At the moment, we leave the EU in March 2019 (except we don't really) and how long will people tolerate the limbo of being in the club with no say, continued Freedom of Movement and having to obey EU laws ?
Sounds like a political death warrant.
UKIP would not believe their luck and Farage would come back to lead them in an instant
No. By the time of the next election, even if nobody who voted in June 2016 has changed their mind, there will be a majority for Remain imho.0 -
I thought there was some hope when we started discussing sensible topics like food, health and coffee machines.
Now it is back to the same old trench warfare...
Come on Mike - get those Brexit-free days arranged.0 -
Donald Trump's trade war is throwing a spanner into the works on that front for Brexiteers.SouthamObserver said:The ability to do FTAs seems to be becoming less of a selling point for Brexit by the day. Given that, why rush out of the Customs Union?
0 -
When's the next great AV thread? That'll make the Brexit discussions seem positively tameBeverley_C said:I thought there was some hope when we started discussing sensible topics like food, health and coffee machines.
Now it is back to the same old trench warfare...
Come on Mike - get those Brexit-free days arranged. 0 -
Interesting: so the younger generation in '75 were more sceptical than the population as a whole.Sean_F said:
18-29 year olds were 61% Remain, in 1975.Foxy said:
Conceivably the older people in 73 voted join, and the youngsters voted out.RobD said:
The cohort who voted in both the 1973 and 2016 EU referendum got more eurosceptic.Benpointer said:
The demographic will have changed quite a lot by the next election compared with the EU-Ref. Now, I know we are always told people become more conservative (and Conservative) as they age, and that seems probable, else Conservatism would have died out years ago... But, is there any evidence that, or reason why, people might become more Euro-sceptic?HYUFD said:
No, I know. It would be political suicide for the Tory Party to go into the next general election with 70% of its voters having voted Leave with the UK still in the EU in all but name.MikeSmithson said:
You hopeHYUFD said:
One thing is for certain, neither Tory MPs nor Tory members will allow the transition period to extend up to 2022, it has to have ended by the time of the next general electionstodge said:Evening all
What would be the political price of extending transition ? At the moment, we leave the EU in March 2019 (except we don't really) and how long will people tolerate the limbo of being in the club with no say, continued Freedom of Movement and having to obey EU laws ?
Sounds like a political death warrant.
UKIP would not believe their luck and Farage would come back to lead them in an instant
No. By the time of the next election, even if nobody who voted in June 2016 has changed their mind, there will be a majority for Remain imho.0 -
And they were all the "Boomers For Brexit" this time!Sean_F said:
18-29 year olds were 61% Remain, in 1975.Foxy said:
Conceivably the older people in 73 voted join, and the youngsters voted out.RobD said:
The cohort who voted in both the 1973 and 2016 EU referendum got more eurosceptic.Benpointer said:
The demographic will have changed quite a lot by the next election compared with the EU-Ref. Now, I know we are always told people become more conservative (and Conservative) as they age, and that seems probable, else Conservatism would have died out years ago... But, is there any evidence that, or reason why, people might become more Euro-sceptic?HYUFD said:
No, I know. It would be political suicide for the Tory Party to go into the next general election with 70% of its voters having voted Leave with the UK still in the EU in all but name.MikeSmithson said:
You hopeHYUFD said:
One thing is for certain, neither Tory MPs nor Tory members will allow the transition period to extend up to 2022, it has to have ended by the time of the next general electionstodge said:Evening all
What would be the political price of extending transition ? At the moment, we leave the EU in March 2019 (except we don't really) and how long will people tolerate the limbo of being in the club with no say, continued Freedom of Movement and having to obey EU laws ?
Sounds like a political death warrant.
UKIP would not believe their luck and Farage would come back to lead them in an instant
No. By the time of the next election, even if nobody who voted in June 2016 has changed their mind, there will be a majority for Remain imho. 0 -
I did a thread yesterday that mentioned AV but no one discussed that aspect of the thread.RobD said:
When's the next great AV thread? That'll make the Brexit discussions seem positively tameBeverley_C said:I thought there was some hope when we started discussing sensible topics like food, health and coffee machines.
Now it is back to the same old trench warfare...
Come on Mike - get those Brexit-free days arranged.
So no more threads on the alternative vote system from me going forward.0 -
Is that a promise?TheScreamingEagles said:
I did a thread yesterday that mentioned AV but no one discussed that aspect of the thread.RobD said:
When's the next great AV thread? That'll make the Brexit discussions seem positively tameBeverley_C said:I thought there was some hope when we started discussing sensible topics like food, health and coffee machines.
Now it is back to the same old trench warfare...
Come on Mike - get those Brexit-free days arranged.
So no more threads on the alternative vote system from me going forward.0 -
Brexit is a religion - facts are both unnecessary and unwelcomeTheScreamingEagles said:
Donald Trump's trade war is throwing a spanner into the works on that front for Brexiteers.SouthamObserver said:The ability to do FTAs seems to be becoming less of a selling point for Brexit by the day. Given that, why rush out of the Customs Union?
0 -
No. They have made that abundantly clear many times.Elliot said:So a certain Eurasian power is "allegedly" back to its old habit of poisoning people in the UK. Do Labour MPs really want to have as Prime Minister someone who was a paid employee of the Kremlin's propaganda TV?
But Labour members do and they're the ones that count.0 -
I was 24 in 1973 and I was an enthusiastic joiner. I changed my mind over the years.Foxy said:
Conceivably the older people in 73 voted join, and the youngsters voted out.RobD said:
The cohort who voted in both the 1973 and 2016 EU referendum got more eurosceptic.Benpointer said:
The demographic will have changed quite a lot by the next election compared with the EU-Ref. Now, I know we are always told people become more conservative (and Conservative) as they age, and that seems probable, else Conservatism would have died out years ago... But, is there any evidence that, or reason why, people might become more Euro-sceptic?HYUFD said:
No, I know. It would be political suicide for the Tory Party to go into the next general election with 70% of its voters having voted Leave with the UK still in the EU in all but name.MikeSmithson said:
You hopeHYUFD said:
One thing is for certain, neither Tory MPs nor Tory members will allow the transition period to extend up to 2022, it has to have ended by the time of the next general electionstodge said:Evening all
What would be the political price of extending transition ? At the moment, we leave the EU in March 2019 (except we don't really) and how long will people tolerate the limbo of being in the club with no say, continued Freedom of Movement and having to obey EU laws ?
Sounds like a political death warrant.
UKIP would not believe their luck and Farage would come back to lead them in an instant
No. By the time of the next election, even if nobody who voted in June 2016 has changed their mind, there will be a majority for Remain imho.
Good evening, everyone.0 -
Sorry - I was not around much yesterday so I must have missed it.TheScreamingEagles said:
I did a thread yesterday that mentioned AV but no one discussed that aspect of the thread.RobD said:
When's the next great AV thread? That'll make the Brexit discussions seem positively tameBeverley_C said:I thought there was some hope when we started discussing sensible topics like food, health and coffee machines.
Now it is back to the same old trench warfare...
Come on Mike - get those Brexit-free days arranged.
So no more threads on the alternative vote system from me going forward.
If you appoint me a moderator I promise to delete every Brexit related post on non-Brexit days. I will do it for free as long as I can listen to the screams of outrage
0 -
Well I might have to do a refresher thread on it for the next Tory leadership contest given the Tories using a form of quasi Alternative Vote to elect their leader.ydoethur said:
Is that a promise?TheScreamingEagles said:
I did a thread yesterday that mentioned AV but no one discussed that aspect of the thread.RobD said:
When's the next great AV thread? That'll make the Brexit discussions seem positively tameBeverley_C said:I thought there was some hope when we started discussing sensible topics like food, health and coffee machines.
Now it is back to the same old trench warfare...
Come on Mike - get those Brexit-free days arranged.
So no more threads on the alternative vote system from me going forward.0 -
TheScreamingEagles said:
I did a thread yesterday that mentioned AV but no one discussed that aspect of the thread.RobD said:
When's the next great AV thread? That'll make the Brexit discussions seem positively tameBeverley_C said:I thought there was some hope when we started discussing sensible topics like food, health and coffee machines.
Now it is back to the same old trench warfare...
Come on Mike - get those Brexit-free days arranged.
So no more threads on the alternative vote system from me going forward.
I must be going blind in my old age. 0 -
we are having an audio-visual thread? Interesting ....RobD said:
When's the next great AV thread? That'll make the Brexit discussions seem positively tameBeverley_C said:I thought there was some hope when we started discussing sensible topics like food, health and coffee machines.
Now it is back to the same old trench warfare...
Come on Mike - get those Brexit-free days arranged.0 -
Not much comment here or elsewhere about the Italian General election?0
-
I lurk a lot more than I post and I haven't read much about shoes, lately, either.Beverley_C said:I thought there was some hope when we started discussing sensible topics like food, health and coffee machines.
Now it is back to the same old trench warfare...
Come on Mike - get those Brexit-free days arranged.0 -
Trade deals with any large economy will be on terms it dictates. We are learning that with both the EU and the US. China and Japan would be the same. Leaving the CU, and putting at risk the trade flows and supply lines it enables, for trade agreements with second and third tier economies 10 years down the line is nonsensical.Benpointer said:
Agreed. Any PB-leavers still thinking we will get a beneficial FTA with the US this side of 2025?SouthamObserver said:The ability to do FTAs seems to be becoming less of a selling point for Brexit by the day. Given that, why rush out of the Customs Union?
0
