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SystemSystem Posts: 12,845
edited March 2018 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Moggy still leads Jez in the “PM after TMay” betting

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  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,108
    His Moggesty.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 132,147
    Boris is more likely to be the next PM and should swap places with Mogg who is more likely to be next leader of the opposition if Corbyn becomes PM
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    His pivot to the centre after the Mansion House speech was masterly, and makes him look a lot more serious.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 56,886
    Amber Rudd too high. She is not the answer after May.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,812
    FPT

    The problem with this is we have agreed to basically stay in the EU, including all payments and FOM, but without any voting rights whatsoever, during transition.

    That’s bearable for 18 months, maybe - but for 5 years?

    https://twitter.com/chrisgreybrexit/status/970756337767534594
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,812
    And another one chips in.

    If we are truly heading toward a 5 year or 10 year transition, then we must surely negotiate some kind of institutional presence and voting ability. The alternative is unthinkable, surely?

    https://twitter.com/davidallengreen/status/970757018654044160
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    Late entrant Tracey Crouch soon to burst on to the board....?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Gardenwalker said:

    If we are truly heading toward a 5 year or 10 year transition, then we must surely negotiate some kind of institutional presence and voting ability.

    Like membership?
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    MarqueeMark said:

    Amber Rudd too high. She is not the answer after May.

    If PBTories were really convinced that the single thing wrong with the 2017 campaign was that May did bad interviews, then I suppose Rudd would make some sense -- she is better at thinking on her feet and improvising than May is.

    Obviously I think the Tories are on a hiding to nothing if they think that was the only thing wrong in 2017, though.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,445
    Gardenwalker said:

    And another one chips in.

    If we are truly heading toward a 5 year or 10 year transition, then we must surely negotiate some kind of institutional presence and voting ability. The alternative is unthinkable, surely?

    https://twitter.com/davidallengreen/status/970757018654044160

    It's in Ireland's interests to delay Brexit indefinitely I think. I mean it's in ours too - the Tories will be slaughtered if it happens though, the leave switchers won't bother heading to the polls whilst remainers all switch over to Corbyn (I mean obviously the Tories will get ~ 9 million core vote but not the people that make a difference in the election though)
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 27,508
    Tonight's Matt cartoon is very good.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 15,705
    Evening all :)

    What would be the political price of extending transition ? At the moment, we leave the EU in March 2019 (except we don't really) and how long will people tolerate the limbo of being in the club with no say, continued Freedom of Movement and having to obey EU laws ?

    Sounds like a political death warrant.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 132,147
    edited March 2018
    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    What would be the political price of extending transition ? At the moment, we leave the EU in March 2019 (except we don't really) and how long will people tolerate the limbo of being in the club with no say, continued Freedom of Movement and having to obey EU laws ?

    Sounds like a political death warrant.

    One thing is for certain, neither a majority of Tory MPs nor Tory members will allow the transition period to extend up to 2022, it has to have ended by the time of the next general election
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,690
    Scott_P said:

    Gardenwalker said:

    If we are truly heading toward a 5 year or 10 year transition, then we must surely negotiate some kind of institutional presence and voting ability.

    Like membership?
    Yes, Brexit is being walked back at a rapid pace.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,870
    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    What would be the political price of extending transition ? At the moment, we leave the EU in March 2019 (except we don't really) and how long will people tolerate the limbo of being in the club with no say, continued Freedom of Movement and having to obey EU laws ?

    Sounds like a political death warrant.

    Agreed. Personally FoM have never been a concern of mine, and I'm sanguine on a long transition on the basis of better done right than quick (if they cannot be one and the same), but it sounds like a very hard sell, at the least with present governing arrangements.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    HYUFD said:

    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    What would be the political price of extending transition ? At the moment, we leave the EU in March 2019 (except we don't really) and how long will people tolerate the limbo of being in the club with no say, continued Freedom of Movement and having to obey EU laws ?

    Sounds like a political death warrant.

    One thing is for certain, neither Tory MPs nor Tory members will allow the transition period to extend up to 2022, it has to have ended by the time of the next general election
    You hope
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    edited March 2018
    Gardenwalker said:

    FPT

    The problem with this is we have agreed to basically stay in the EU, including all payments and FOM, but without any voting rights whatsoever, during transition.

    That’s bearable for 18 months, maybe - but for 5 years?

    https://twitter.com/chrisgreybrexit/status/970756337767534594

    On paper, our voting rights were only ever level pegging with Malta and Latvia, I believe (plus a bit more in QMV votes for the additional population). What counts isn't voting rights but having Big Men near the levers of power by virtue of being, e.g., trade commissioners, which obv isn't going to happen. Any voting rights we do retain will be a fig leaf.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 18,672
    HYUFD said:

    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    What would be the political price of extending transition ? At the moment, we leave the EU in March 2019 (except we don't really) and how long will people tolerate the limbo of being in the club with no say, continued Freedom of Movement and having to obey EU laws ?

    Sounds like a political death warrant.

    One thing is for certain, neither a majority of Tory MPs nor Tory members will allow the transition period to extend up to 2022, it has to have ended by the time of the next general election
    So BINO it is?
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,451
    edited March 2018
    Democrats up by 3pct in latest PA House district poll. A significant upset could be on the cards in a district Trump won by 20 points

    http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/376762-dem-holds-slim-lead-in-pa-special-election-poll
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,445
    MikeSmithson said:

    HYUFD said:

    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    What would be the political price of extending transition ? At the moment, we leave the EU in March 2019 (except we don't really) and how long will people tolerate the limbo of being in the club with no say, continued Freedom of Movement and having to obey EU laws ?

    Sounds like a political death warrant.

    One thing is for certain, neither Tory MPs nor Tory members will allow the transition period to extend up to 2022, it has to have ended by the time of the next general election
    You hope
    Sounds like a recipe for Corbyn disaster
  • OchEyeOchEye Posts: 1,469
    Jonathan said:

    His Moggesty.

    The Emperor Moggadon...... The Precious One!
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,690
    Ishmael_Z said:

    Gardenwalker said:

    FPT

    The problem with this is we have agreed to basically stay in the EU, including all payments and FOM, but without any voting rights whatsoever, during transition.

    That’s bearable for 18 months, maybe - but for 5 years?

    https://twitter.com/chrisgreybrexit/status/970756337767534594

    On paper, our voting rights were only ever level pegging with Malta and Latvia, I believe (plus a bit more in QMV votes for the additional population). What counts isn't voting rights but having Big Men near the levers of power by virtue of being, e.g., trade commissioners, which obv isn't going to happen. Any voting rights we do retain will be a fig leaf.
    Did I imagine Peter Mandelson happening?
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 18,672
    edited March 2018
    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    What would be the political price of extending transition ? At the moment, we leave the EU in March 2019 (except we don't really) and how long will people tolerate the limbo of being in the club with no say, continued Freedom of Movement and having to obey EU laws ?

    Sounds like a political death warrant.

    Forever, probably.

    Something has to give; a worthwhile relationship with the continent we inhabit, leaving the EU, or having a say on the rules we follow.
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    FF43 said:

    HYUFD said:

    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    What would be the political price of extending transition ? At the moment, we leave the EU in March 2019 (except we don't really) and how long will people tolerate the limbo of being in the club with no say, continued Freedom of Movement and having to obey EU laws ?

    Sounds like a political death warrant.

    One thing is for certain, neither a majority of Tory MPs nor Tory members will allow the transition period to extend up to 2022, it has to have ended by the time of the next general election
    So BINO it is?
    Yes , I keep saying , the long good transition implementation period, looks nailed onto me.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    williamglenn said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Gardenwalker said:

    FPT

    The problem with this is we have agreed to basically stay in the EU, including all payments and FOM, but without any voting rights whatsoever, during transition.

    That’s bearable for 18 months, maybe - but for 5 years?

    https://twitter.com/chrisgreybrexit/status/970756337767534594

    On paper, our voting rights were only ever level pegging with Malta and Latvia, I believe (plus a bit more in QMV votes for the additional population). What counts isn't voting rights but having Big Men near the levers of power by virtue of being, e.g., trade commissioners, which obv isn't going to happen. Any voting rights we do retain will be a fig leaf.
    Did I imagine Peter Mandelson happening?
    No, but you seem to have a modal verb issue. "isn't going to" = won't, future, sorta thing. Or do you foresee a similar appointment of a UK pol in a (future) transition period?
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    HYUFD said:

    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    What would be the political price of extending transition ? At the moment, we leave the EU in March 2019 (except we don't really) and how long will people tolerate the limbo of being in the club with no say, continued Freedom of Movement and having to obey EU laws ?

    Sounds like a political death warrant.

    One thing is for certain, neither a majority of Tory MPs nor Tory members will allow the transition period to extend up to 2022, it has to have ended by the time of the next general election
    I am sure you are right, but why is that so?
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    HYUFD said:

    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    What would be the political price of extending transition ? At the moment, we leave the EU in March 2019 (except we don't really) and how long will people tolerate the limbo of being in the club with no say, continued Freedom of Movement and having to obey EU laws ?

    Sounds like a political death warrant.

    One thing is for certain, neither a majority of Tory MPs nor Tory members will allow the transition period to extend up to 2022, it has to have ended by the time of the next general election
    How can the conservative members object ?
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,451
    If the transition is really 5-10 years long then the most likely way it will end is the UK rejoining the EU
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,834
    Recidivist said:

    HYUFD said:

    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    What would be the political price of extending transition ? At the moment, we leave the EU in March 2019 (except we don't really) and how long will people tolerate the limbo of being in the club with no say, continued Freedom of Movement and having to obey EU laws ?

    Sounds like a political death warrant.

    One thing is for certain, neither a majority of Tory MPs nor Tory members will allow the transition period to extend up to 2022, it has to have ended by the time of the next general election
    I am sure you are right, but why is that so?
    Because they do not trust Labour not to renege and decide to keep us in.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,834
    williamglenn said:

    Scott_P said:

    Gardenwalker said:

    If we are truly heading toward a 5 year or 10 year transition, then we must surely negotiate some kind of institutional presence and voting ability.

    Like membership?
    Yes, Brexit is being walked back at a rapid pace.
    LOL. The Remaniac delusions are a sight to behold.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 10,579
    HYUFD said:

    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    What would be the political price of extending transition ? At the moment, we leave the EU in March 2019 (except we don't really) and how long will people tolerate the limbo of being in the club with no say, continued Freedom of Movement and having to obey EU laws ?

    Sounds like a political death warrant.

    One thing is for certain, neither a majority of Tory MPs nor Tory members will allow the transition period to extend up to 2022, it has to have ended by the time of the next general election
    The Tory members are irrelevant. For the MPs, if it's a choice of that or economic mayhem with an ensuing Corbyn government, they'll opt for the former. The romantic whimsies of Hannan, Mogg etc. will have to be indulged another day if everything's about to blow up.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,690
    Ishmael_Z said:

    williamglenn said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Gardenwalker said:

    FPT

    The problem with this is we have agreed to basically stay in the EU, including all payments and FOM, but without any voting rights whatsoever, during transition.

    That’s bearable for 18 months, maybe - but for 5 years?

    https://twitter.com/chrisgreybrexit/status/970756337767534594

    On paper, our voting rights were only ever level pegging with Malta and Latvia, I believe (plus a bit more in QMV votes for the additional population). What counts isn't voting rights but having Big Men near the levers of power by virtue of being, e.g., trade commissioners, which obv isn't going to happen. Any voting rights we do retain will be a fig leaf.
    Did I imagine Peter Mandelson happening?
    No, but you seem to have a modal verb issue. "isn't going to" = won't, future, sorta thing. Or do you foresee a similar appointment of a UK pol in a (future) transition period?
    Transition = zero representation in anything. It’s political purgatory.

    To say that our influence as a member was on a par with Malta is simply absurd.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 68,525
    Yorkcity said:

    HYUFD said:

    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    What would be the political price of extending transition ? At the moment, we leave the EU in March 2019 (except we don't really) and how long will people tolerate the limbo of being in the club with no say, continued Freedom of Movement and having to obey EU laws ?

    Sounds like a political death warrant.

    One thing is for certain, neither a majority of Tory MPs nor Tory members will allow the transition period to extend up to 2022, it has to have ended by the time of the next general election
    How can the conservative members object ?
    Good question - I have no idea and I am a member
  • glwglw Posts: 10,641
    williamglenn said:

    Transition = zero representation in anything. It’s political purgatory.

    Surely that's an argument for a rapid or better still no transition? You are starting to make sense at last.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    williamglenn said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    williamglenn said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Gardenwalker said:

    FPT

    The problem with this is we have agreed to basically stay in the EU, including all payments and FOM, but without any voting rights whatsoever, during transition.

    That’s bearable for 18 months, maybe - but for 5 years?

    https://twitter.com/chrisgreybrexit/status/970756337767534594

    On paper, our voting rights were only ever level pegging with Malta and Latvia, I believe (plus a bit more in QMV votes for the additional population). What counts isn't voting rights but having Big Men near the levers of power by virtue of being, e.g., trade commissioners, which obv isn't going to happen. Any voting rights we do retain will be a fig leaf.
    Did I imagine Peter Mandelson happening?
    No, but you seem to have a modal verb issue. "isn't going to" = won't, future, sorta thing. Or do you foresee a similar appointment of a UK pol in a (future) transition period?
    Transition = zero representation in anything. It’s political purgatory.

    To say that our influence as a member was on a par with Malta is simply absurd.
    I am obviously going through a lucidity deficit. I was *contrasting* voting rights, in which we are +/- on a par with Malta and Latvia, with *influence* of which we used to have a great deal (and a great deal more than M and L), and pointing out that in the future (that's the stuff that hasn't happened yet), bare - and virtually worthless - voting rights are the best we can hope for, and scarcely worth having.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 18,672
    edited March 2018
    glw said:

    williamglenn said:

    Transition = zero representation in anything. It’s political purgatory.

    Surely that's an argument for a rapid or better still no transition? You are starting to make sense at last.
    Maybe if Leave had won 70/30 on a clear understanding of lean times ahead. It actually won 52/48 on the promise of sunlit uplands. Leave needs to deliver a Brexit that is at least tolerable. There isn't a mandate for burnt bridges and scorched earth.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 132,147
    MikeSmithson said:

    HYUFD said:

    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    What would be the political price of extending transition ? At the moment, we leave the EU in March 2019 (except we don't really) and how long will people tolerate the limbo of being in the club with no say, continued Freedom of Movement and having to obey EU laws ?

    Sounds like a political death warrant.

    One thing is for certain, neither Tory MPs nor Tory members will allow the transition period to extend up to 2022, it has to have ended by the time of the next general election
    You hope
    No, I know. It would be political suicide for the Tory Party to go into the next general election with 70% of its voters having voted Leave with the UK still in the EU in all but name.

    UKIP would not believe their luck and Farage would come back to lead them in an instant
  • GarethoftheVale2GarethoftheVale2 Posts: 2,446
    Pulpstar said:

    Gardenwalker said:

    And another one chips in.

    If we are truly heading toward a 5 year or 10 year transition, then we must surely negotiate some kind of institutional presence and voting ability. The alternative is unthinkable, surely?

    https://twitter.com/davidallengreen/status/970757018654044160

    It's in Ireland's interests to delay Brexit indefinitely I think. I mean it's in ours too - the Tories will be slaughtered if it happens though, the leave switchers won't bother heading to the polls whilst remainers all switch over to Corbyn (I mean obviously the Tories will get ~ 9 million core vote but not the people that make a difference in the election though)
    I suspect this is a load of rubbish. Perhaps the Whitehall Mandarins might be thinking this but it can't seriously be in the works.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    Richard_Tyndall said:

    Recidivist said:

    HYUFD said:

    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    What would be the political price of extending transition ? At the moment, we leave the EU in March 2019 (except we don't really) and how long will people tolerate the limbo of being in the club with no say, continued Freedom of Movement and having to obey EU laws ?

    Sounds like a political death warrant.

    One thing is for certain, neither a majority of Tory MPs nor Tory members will allow the transition period to extend up to 2022, it has to have ended by the time of the next general election
    I am sure you are right, but why is that so?
    Because they do not trust Labour not to renege and decide to keep us in.
    Well to do that Labour would have to win the general election promising to do so. It doesn't suggest much confidence in the Brexit project if that is a real risk.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 132,147
    FF43 said:

    HYUFD said:

    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    What would be the political price of extending transition ? At the moment, we leave the EU in March 2019 (except we don't really) and how long will people tolerate the limbo of being in the club with no say, continued Freedom of Movement and having to obey EU laws ?

    Sounds like a political death warrant.

    One thing is for certain, neither a majority of Tory MPs nor Tory members will allow the transition period to extend up to 2022, it has to have ended by the time of the next general election
    So BINO it is?
    Not by 2022, by then we will have Brexited, the transition will have ended and we will be out of the single market with free movement having ended and probably out of the customs union too
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 132,147
    Yorkcity said:

    HYUFD said:

    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    What would be the political price of extending transition ? At the moment, we leave the EU in March 2019 (except we don't really) and how long will people tolerate the limbo of being in the club with no say, continued Freedom of Movement and having to obey EU laws ?

    Sounds like a political death warrant.

    One thing is for certain, neither a majority of Tory MPs nor Tory members will allow the transition period to extend up to 2022, it has to have ended by the time of the next general election
    How can the conservative members object ?
    By engaging in Momentum like mass deselections but by then UKIP would probably be on 25% in the polls anyway if we were still in the single market with free movement
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,888
    FF43 said:

    glw said:

    williamglenn said:

    Transition = zero representation in anything. It’s political purgatory.

    Surely that's an argument for a rapid or better still no transition? You are starting to make sense at last.
    Maybe if Leave had won 70/30 on a clear understanding of lean times ahead. It actually won 52/48 on the promise of sunlit uplands. Leave needs to deliver a Brexit that is at least tolerable. There isn't a mandate for burnt bridges and scorched earth.
    Funny, I don't remember seeing sunlit uplands on the ballot paper. ;)
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 132,147
    Stark_Dawning said:

    HYUFD said:

    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    What would be the political price of extending transition ? At the moment, we leave the EU in March 2019 (except we don't really) and how long will people tolerate the limbo of being in the club with no say, continued Freedom of Movement and having to obey EU laws ?

    Sounds like a political death warrant.

    One thing is for certain, neither a majority of Tory MPs nor Tory members will allow the transition period to extend up to 2022, it has to have ended by the time of the next general election
    The Tory members are irrelevant. For the MPs, if it's a choice of that or economic mayhem with an ensuing Corbyn government, they'll opt for the former. The romantic whimsies of Hannan, Mogg etc. will have to be indulged another day if everything's about to blow up.
    If the Tory MPs vote to keep perpetual transition they will be signing their own death warrant, we could well see a Canada 1993 scenario with the Tories facing a Progressive Conservative style annihilation and UKIP or a new Farage/Banks led Party becoming the main party of the right.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,690
    RobD said:

    FF43 said:

    glw said:

    williamglenn said:

    Transition = zero representation in anything. It’s political purgatory.

    Surely that's an argument for a rapid or better still no transition? You are starting to make sense at last.
    Maybe if Leave had won 70/30 on a clear understanding of lean times ahead. It actually won 52/48 on the promise of sunlit uplands. Leave needs to deliver a Brexit that is at least tolerable. There isn't a mandate for burnt bridges and scorched earth.
    Funny, I don't remember seeing sunlit uplands on the ballot paper. ;)
    https://twitter.com/vote_leave/status/744908829901611008?s=21
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 18,672
    edited March 2018
    RobD said:

    FF43 said:

    glw said:

    williamglenn said:

    Transition = zero representation in anything. It’s political purgatory.

    Surely that's an argument for a rapid or better still no transition? You are starting to make sense at last.
    Maybe if Leave had won 70/30 on a clear understanding of lean times ahead. It actually won 52/48 on the promise of sunlit uplands. Leave needs to deliver a Brexit that is at least tolerable. There isn't a mandate for burnt bridges and scorched earth.
    Funny, I don't remember seeing sunlit uplands on the ballot paper. ;)
    But you did see burnt bridges and scorched earth on the ballot paper?

    In any case I was talking about the Leave campaign, not the ballot paper.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 62,655
    not_on_fire said:

    If the transition is really 5-10 years long then the most likely way it will end is the UK rejoining the EU

    Really?

    I think that's extremely unlikely.

    If we were to have a five year transition, then I would expect that it would be staggered. (Making up things below rather than proposing this exact schedule...)

    So, X + 1 day, we leave the CFP and CAP, and are able to negotiate our own trade deals.

    X + 1 year, leave single market, with free movement, and the following EU administered bodies (ESA, Erasmus, etc.)

    X + 3 years, leave more EU administered bodies.

    X + 5 years, formally leave customs union having negotiated replacement deals.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,690
    Ishmael_Z said:

    williamglenn said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    williamglenn said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Gardenwalker said:

    FPT

    The problem with this is we have agreed to basically stay in the EU, including all payments and FOM, but without any voting rights whatsoever, during transition.

    That’s bearable for 18 months, maybe - but for 5 years?

    https://twitter.com/chrisgreybrexit/status/970756337767534594

    On paper, our voting rights were only ever level pegging with Malta and Latvia, I believe (plus a bit more in QMV votes for the additional population). What counts isn't voting rights but having Big Men near the levers of power by virtue of being, e.g., trade commissioners, which obv isn't going to happen. Any voting rights we do retain will be a fig leaf.
    Did I imagine Peter Mandelson happening?
    No, but you seem to have a modal verb issue. "isn't going to" = won't, future, sorta thing. Or do you foresee a similar appointment of a UK pol in a (future) transition period?
    Transition = zero representation in anything. It’s political purgatory.

    To say that our influence as a member was on a par with Malta is simply absurd.
    I am obviously going through a lucidity deficit. I was *contrasting* voting rights, in which we are +/- on a par with Malta and Latvia, with *influence* of which we used to have a great deal (and a great deal more than M and L), and pointing out that in the future (that's the stuff that hasn't happened yet), bare - and virtually worthless - voting rights are the best we can hope for, and scarcely worth having.
    That’s simply wrong though. How many MEPs do we have versus Malta? What is our QMV voting weight versus Malta?
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    https://twitter.com/anna_soubry/status/824707175725596672?s=21
  • glwglw Posts: 10,641
    FF43 said:

    But you did see burnt bridges and scorched earth on the ballot paper?

    On the ballot paper? No, but there was plenty of that coming from the Remain camp. Yet it didn't frighten the electorate enough in the end.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,888
    glw said:

    FF43 said:

    But you did see burnt bridges and scorched earth on the ballot paper?

    On the ballot paper? No, but there was plenty of that coming from the Remain camp. Yet it didn't frighten the electorate enough in the end.
    Burnt bridges and scorched earth? Positively utopian compared to the predictions of the Remain campaign. :p
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 125,258
    Gardenwalker said:

    And another one chips in.

    If we are truly heading toward a 5 year or 10 year transition, then we must surely negotiate some kind of institutional presence and voting ability. The alternative is unthinkable, surely?

    https://twitter.com/davidallengreen/status/970757018654044160

    Never Gonna Give EU Up.
  • ElliotElliot Posts: 1,516
    So a certain Eurasian power is "allegedly" back to its old habit of poisoning people in the UK. Do Labour MPs really want to have as Prime Minister someone who was a paid employee of the Kremlin's propaganda TV?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,690
    glw said:

    FF43 said:

    But you did see burnt bridges and scorched earth on the ballot paper?

    On the ballot paper? No, but there was plenty of that coming from the Remain camp. Yet it didn't frighten the electorate enough in the end.
    Cameron suggested the Irish border would be moved and now that’s on the cards Brexiteers are losing it.
    https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/743054573716295681?s=21
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,834
    williamglenn said:

    glw said:

    FF43 said:

    But you did see burnt bridges and scorched earth on the ballot paper?

    On the ballot paper? No, but there was plenty of that coming from the Remain camp. Yet it didn't frighten the electorate enough in the end.
    Cameron suggested the Irish border would be moved and now that’s on the cards Brexiteers are losing it.
    https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/743054573716295681?s=21
    No William, no matter how much you might wish it, it is not on the cards. Just as stopping Brexit is not on the cards, or joining the Euro or any of the other lunatic things you believe might happen.
  • ElliotElliot Posts: 1,516
    williamglenn said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    williamglenn said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    williamglenn said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Gardenwalker said:

    FPT

    The problem with this is we have agreed to basically stay in the EU, including all payments and FOM, but without any voting rights whatsoever, during transition.

    That’s bearable for 18 months, maybe - but for 5 years?

    https://twitter.com/chrisgreybrexit/status/970756337767534594

    On paper, our voting rights were only ever level pegging with Malta and Latvia, I believe (plus a bit more in QMV votes for the additional population). What counts isn't voting rights but having Big Men near the levers of power by virtue of being, e.g., trade commissioners, which obv isn't going to happen. Any voting rights we do retain will be a fig leaf.
    Did I imagine Peter Mandelson happening?
    No, but you seem to have a modal verb issue. "isn't going to" = won't, future, sorta thing. Or do you foresee a similar appointment of a UK pol in a (future) transition period?
    Transition = zero representation in anything. It’s political purgatory.

    To say that our influence as a member was on a par with Malta is simply absurd.
    I am obviously going through a lucidity deficit. I was *contrasting* voting rights, in which we are +/- on a par with Malta and Latvia, with *influence* of which we used to have a great deal (and a great deal more than M and L), and pointing out that in the future (that's the stuff that hasn't happened yet), bare - and virtually worthless - voting rights are the best we can hope for, and scarcely worth having.
    That’s simply wrong though. How many MEPs do we have versus Malta? What is our QMV voting weight versus Malta?
    Would it matter if you had 30 personal votes if you were a Labour voter in a safe Tory seat?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,690
    Elliot said:

    So a certain Eurasian power is "allegedly" back to its old habit of poisoning people in the UK. Do Labour MPs really want to have as Prime Minister someone who was a paid employee of the Kremlin's propaganda TV?

    Here’s Steve Baker on RT predicting that the collapse of our system is only a matter of time.
    https://youtu.be/AljEp0XDRvc
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    williamglenn said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    williamglenn said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    williamglenn said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Gardenwalker said:

    FPT

    The problem with this is we have agreed to basically stay in the EU, including all payments and FOM, but without any voting rights whatsoever, during transition.

    That’s bearable for 18 months, maybe - but for 5 years?

    https://twitter.com/chrisgreybrexit/status/970756337767534594

    On paper, our voting rights were only ever level pegging with Malta and Latvia, I believe (plus a bit more in QMV votes for the additional population). What counts isn't voting rights but having Big Men near the levers of power by virtue of being, e.g., trade commissioners, which obv isn't going to happen. Any voting rights we do retain will be a fig leaf.
    Did I imagine Peter Mandelson happening?
    No, but you seem to have a modal verb issue. "isn't going to" = won't, future, sorta thing. Or do you foresee a similar appointment of a UK pol in a (future) transition period?
    Transition = zero representation in anything. It’s political purgatory.

    To say that our influence as a member was on a par with Malta is simply absurd.
    I am obviously going through a lucidity deficit. I was *contrasting* voting rights, in which we are +/- on a par with Malta and Latvia, with *influence* of which we used to have a great deal (and a great deal more than M and L), and pointing out that in the future (that's the stuff that hasn't happened yet), bare - and virtually worthless - voting rights are the best we can hope for, and scarcely worth having.
    That’s simply wrong though. How many MEPs do we have versus Malta? What is our QMV voting weight versus Malta?
    Jesus Christ on a bike, I expressly reserved the QMV/population point in my last post but one. My point was purely that any rights which we retain *during a future transitional period* will be next to worthless. I did not say that they were worthless when we were full members. Had I thought that, I would probably have voted Leave. I didn't, so I didn't. Fin.
  • ElliotElliot Posts: 1,516
    rcs1000 said:

    not_on_fire said:

    If the transition is really 5-10 years long then the most likely way it will end is the UK rejoining the EU

    Really?

    I think that's extremely unlikely.

    If we were to have a five year transition, then I would expect that it would be staggered. (Making up things below rather than proposing this exact schedule...)

    So, X + 1 day, we leave the CFP and CAP, and are able to negotiate our own trade deals.

    X + 1 year, leave single market, with free movement, and the following EU administered bodies (ESA, Erasmus, etc.)

    X + 3 years, leave more EU administered bodies.

    X + 5 years, formally leave customs union having negotiated replacement deals.
    A 10 year transition would destroy Leavers' support for the Tories. A staggered 5 could work.
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,451
    edited March 2018
    rcs1000 said:

    not_on_fire said:

    If the transition is really 5-10 years long then the most likely way it will end is the UK rejoining the EU

    Really?

    I think that's extremely unlikely.

    If we were to have a five year transition, then I would expect that it would be staggered. (Making up things below rather than proposing this exact schedule...)

    So, X + 1 day, we leave the CFP and CAP, and are able to negotiate our own trade deals.

    X + 1 year, leave single market, with free movement, and the following EU administered bodies (ESA, Erasmus, etc.)

    X + 3 years, leave more EU administered bodies.

    X + 5 years, formally leave customs union having negotiated replacement deals.
    My point is that as long as we are in a transitioon, rejoining the EU will be relatively simple as we’ll be bound to most of their rules. And in 10 years the demographics will shifted in favour of Remain/Rejoin to the point that one of the major parties offers sees it advantageous to offer a referendum in their manifesto.

    In the case of the European bodies, we’ll be leaving and immediately rejoining as an Associate member to most of them.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 125,258
    Elliot said:

    So a certain Eurasian power is "allegedly" back to its old habit of poisoning people in the UK. Do Labour MPs really want to have as Prime Minister someone who was a paid employee of the Kremlin's propaganda TV?

    That attack line will not work.

    https://politicalscrapbook.net/2017/10/tory-mps-have-taken-much-money-from-russia-today-than-labour-mps/
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 36,410
    edited March 2018
    HYUFD said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    HYUFD said:

    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    What would be the political price of extending transition ? At the moment, we leave the EU in March 2019 (except we don't really) and how long will people tolerate the limbo of being in the club with no say, continued Freedom of Movement and having to obey EU laws ?

    Sounds like a political death warrant.

    One thing is for certain, neither Tory MPs nor Tory members will allow the transition period to extend up to 2022, it has to have ended by the time of the next general election
    You hope
    No, I know. It would be political suicide for the Tory Party to go into the next general election with 70% of its voters having voted Leave with the UK still in the EU in all but name.

    UKIP would not believe their luck and Farage would come back to lead them in an instant
    The demographic will have changed quite a lot by the next election compared with the EU-Ref. Now, I know we are always told people become more conservative (and Conservative) as they age, and that seems probable, else Conservatism would have died out years ago... But, is there any evidence that, or reason why, people might become more Euro-sceptic?

    No. By the time of the next election, even if nobody who voted in June 2016 has changed their mind, there will be a majority for Remain imho.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 62,655
    Elliot said:

    rcs1000 said:

    not_on_fire said:

    If the transition is really 5-10 years long then the most likely way it will end is the UK rejoining the EU

    Really?

    I think that's extremely unlikely.

    If we were to have a five year transition, then I would expect that it would be staggered. (Making up things below rather than proposing this exact schedule...)

    So, X + 1 day, we leave the CFP and CAP, and are able to negotiate our own trade deals.

    X + 1 year, leave single market, with free movement, and the following EU administered bodies (ESA, Erasmus, etc.)

    X + 3 years, leave more EU administered bodies.

    X + 5 years, formally leave customs union having negotiated replacement deals.
    A 10 year transition would destroy Leavers' support for the Tories. A staggered 5 could work.
    When we joined the EU, we had a seven year transition period as we moved from Commonwealth preference to the EEC customs union. Really, we only became full EEC members in 1980.
  • ElliotElliot Posts: 1,516
    williamglenn said:

    RobD said:

    FF43 said:

    glw said:

    williamglenn said:

    Transition = zero representation in anything. It’s political purgatory.

    Surely that's an argument for a rapid or better still no transition? You are starting to make sense at last.
    Maybe if Leave had won 70/30 on a clear understanding of lean times ahead. It actually won 52/48 on the promise of sunlit uplands. Leave needs to deliver a Brexit that is at least tolerable. There isn't a mandate for burnt bridges and scorched earth.
    Funny, I don't remember seeing sunlit uplands on the ballot paper. ;)
    https://twitter.com/vote_leave/status/744908829901611008?s=21
    On the other hand Remain promised a year long recession, which depressed the Leave vote share, so it's swings and roundabouts.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,690
    rcs1000 said:

    Elliot said:

    rcs1000 said:

    not_on_fire said:

    If the transition is really 5-10 years long then the most likely way it will end is the UK rejoining the EU

    Really?

    I think that's extremely unlikely.

    If we were to have a five year transition, then I would expect that it would be staggered. (Making up things below rather than proposing this exact schedule...)

    So, X + 1 day, we leave the CFP and CAP, and are able to negotiate our own trade deals.

    X + 1 year, leave single market, with free movement, and the following EU administered bodies (ESA, Erasmus, etc.)

    X + 3 years, leave more EU administered bodies.

    X + 5 years, formally leave customs union having negotiated replacement deals.
    A 10 year transition would destroy Leavers' support for the Tories. A staggered 5 could work.
    When we joined the EU, we had a seven year transition period as we moved from Commonwealth preference to the EEC customs union. Really, we only became full EEC members in 1980.
    The Thatcher revolution was really the European revolution. Discuss.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,888
    Benpointer said:

    HYUFD said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    HYUFD said:

    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    What would be the political price of extending transition ? At the moment, we leave the EU in March 2019 (except we don't really) and how long will people tolerate the limbo of being in the club with no say, continued Freedom of Movement and having to obey EU laws ?

    Sounds like a political death warrant.

    One thing is for certain, neither Tory MPs nor Tory members will allow the transition period to extend up to 2022, it has to have ended by the time of the next general election
    You hope
    No, I know. It would be political suicide for the Tory Party to go into the next general election with 70% of its voters having voted Leave with the UK still in the EU in all but name.

    UKIP would not believe their luck and Farage would come back to lead them in an instant
    The demographic will have changed quite a lot by the next election compared with the EU-Ref. Now, I know we are always told people become more conservative (and Conservative) as they age, and that seems probable, else Conservatism would have died out years ago... But, is there any evidence that, or reason why, people might become more Euro-sceptic?

    No. By the time of the next election, even if nobody who voted in June 2016 has changed their mind, there will be a majority for Remain imho.
    The cohort who voted in both the 1973 and 2016 EU referendum got more eurosceptic.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 132,147
    Benpointer said:

    HYUFD said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    HYUFD said:

    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    What would be the political price of extending transition ? At the moment, we leave the EU in March 2019 (except we don't really) and how long will people tolerate the limbo of being in the club with no say, continued Freedom of Movement and having to obey EU laws ?

    Sounds like a political death warrant.

    One thing is for certain, neither Tory MPs nor Tory members will allow the transition period to extend up to 2022, it has to have ended by the time of the next general election
    You hope
    No, I know. It would be political suicide for the Tory Party to go into the next general election with 70% of its voters having voted Leave with the UK still in the EU in all but name.

    UKIP would not believe their luck and Farage would come back to lead them in an instant
    The demographic will have changed quite a lot by the next election compared with the EU-Ref. Now, I know we are always told people become more conservative (and Conservative) as they age, and that seems probable, else Conservatism would have died out years ago... But, is there any evidence that, or reason why, people might become more Euro-sceptic?

    No. By the time of the next election, even if nobody who voted in June 2016 has changed their mind, there will be a majority for Remain imho.
    The next general election will be at most 6 years after the referendum, given on average the age at which you were more likely to vote Leave than Remain was 45 the vast majority of Leave voters will still be around in 2022 and they make up the vast majority of current Tory voters
    http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2016/06/how-the-united-kingdom-voted-and-why/
  • ElliotElliot Posts: 1,516
    Recidivist said:

    Richard_Tyndall said:

    Recidivist said:

    HYUFD said:

    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    What would be the political price of extending transition ? At the moment, we leave the EU in March 2019 (except we don't really) and how long will people tolerate the limbo of being in the club with no say, continued Freedom of Movement and having to obey EU laws ?

    Sounds like a political death warrant.

    One thing is for certain, neither a majority of Tory MPs nor Tory members will allow the transition period to extend up to 2022, it has to have ended by the time of the next general election
    I am sure you are right, but why is that so?
    Because they do not trust Labour not to renege and decide to keep us in.
    Well to do that Labour would have to win the general election promising to do so. It doesn't suggest much confidence in the Brexit project if that is a real risk.
    It would be more a lack of confidence in a Tory party that had let them down and a lack of confidence in the democratic credentials of Labour.
  • ElliotElliot Posts: 1,516
    rcs1000 said:

    Elliot said:

    rcs1000 said:

    not_on_fire said:

    If the transition is really 5-10 years long then the most likely way it will end is the UK rejoining the EU

    Really?

    I think that's extremely unlikely.

    If we were to have a five year transition, then I would expect that it would be staggered. (Making up things below rather than proposing this exact schedule...)

    So, X + 1 day, we leave the CFP and CAP, and are able to negotiate our own trade deals.

    X + 1 year, leave single market, with free movement, and the following EU administered bodies (ESA, Erasmus, etc.)

    X + 3 years, leave more EU administered bodies.

    X + 5 years, formally leave customs union having negotiated replacement deals.
    A 10 year transition would destroy Leavers' support for the Tories. A staggered 5 could work.
    When we joined the EU, we had a seven year transition period as we moved from Commonwealth preference to the EEC customs union. Really, we only became full EEC members in 1980.
    So five years after the referendum result?
  • ElliotElliot Posts: 1,516
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Elliot said:

    So a certain Eurasian power is "allegedly" back to its old habit of poisoning people in the UK. Do Labour MPs really want to have as Prime Minister someone who was a paid employee of the Kremlin's propaganda TV?

    That attack line will not work.

    https://politicalscrapbook.net/2017/10/tory-mps-have-taken-much-money-from-russia-today-than-labour-mps/
    I wouldn't want any of those useful idiots as Prime Minister either.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 54,411
    RobD said:

    Benpointer said:

    HYUFD said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    HYUFD said:

    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    What would be the political price of extending transition ? At the moment, we leave the EU in March 2019 (except we don't really) and how long will people tolerate the limbo of being in the club with no say, continued Freedom of Movement and having to obey EU laws ?

    Sounds like a political death warrant.

    One thing is for certain, neither Tory MPs nor Tory members will allow the transition period to extend up to 2022, it has to have ended by the time of the next general election
    You hope
    No, I know. It would be political suicide for the Tory Party to go into the next general election with 70% of its voters having voted Leave with the UK still in the EU in all but name.

    UKIP would not believe their luck and Farage would come back to lead them in an instant
    The demographic will have changed quite a lot by the next election compared with the EU-Ref. Now, I know we are always told people become more conservative (and Conservative) as they age, and that seems probable, else Conservatism would have died out years ago... But, is there any evidence that, or reason why, people might become more Euro-sceptic?

    No. By the time of the next election, even if nobody who voted in June 2016 has changed their mind, there will be a majority for Remain imho.
    The cohort who voted in both the 1973 and 2016 EU referendum got more eurosceptic.
    Conceivably the older people in 73 voted join, and the youngsters voted out.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 125,258
    Elliot said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Elliot said:

    So a certain Eurasian power is "allegedly" back to its old habit of poisoning people in the UK. Do Labour MPs really want to have as Prime Minister someone who was a paid employee of the Kremlin's propaganda TV?

    That attack line will not work.

    https://politicalscrapbook.net/2017/10/tory-mps-have-taken-much-money-from-russia-today-than-labour-mps/
    I wouldn't want any of those useful idiots as Prime Minister either.
    You'll upset Robert if you keep on calling Kwasi Kwarteng an idiot.
  • ElliotElliot Posts: 1,516
    williamglenn said:

    Elliot said:

    So a certain Eurasian power is "allegedly" back to its old habit of poisoning people in the UK. Do Labour MPs really want to have as Prime Minister someone who was a paid employee of the Kremlin's propaganda TV?

    Here’s Steve Baker on RT predicting that the collapse of our system is only a matter of time.
    https://youtu.be/AljEp0XDRvc
    Is Steve Baker a candidate for leading the UK government?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 41,081
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Elliot said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Elliot said:

    So a certain Eurasian power is "allegedly" back to its old habit of poisoning people in the UK. Do Labour MPs really want to have as Prime Minister someone who was a paid employee of the Kremlin's propaganda TV?

    That attack line will not work.

    https://politicalscrapbook.net/2017/10/tory-mps-have-taken-much-money-from-russia-today-than-labour-mps/
    I wouldn't want any of those useful idiots as Prime Minister either.
    You'll upset Robert if you keep on calling Kwasi Kwarteng an idiot.
    Future PM right there. He needs a big promotion.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,981
    edited March 2018
    Remainers getting terribly excited about the chances of us spending a decade in EU purgatory I see? :D
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,870
    Benpointer said:

    HYUFD said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    HYUFD said:

    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    What would be the political price of extending transition ? At the moment, we leave the EU in March 2019 (except we don't really) and how long will people tolerate the limbo of being in the club with no say, continued Freedom of Movement and having to obey EU laws ?

    Sounds like a political death warrant.

    One thing is for certain, neither Tory MPs nor Tory members will allow the transition period to extend up to 2022, it has to have ended by the time of the next general election
    You hope
    No, I know. It would be political suicide for the Tory Party to go into the next general election with 70% of its voters having voted Leave with the UK still in the EU in all but name.

    UKIP would not believe their luck and Farage would come back to lead them in an instant
    The demographic will have changed quite a lot by the next election compared with the EU-Ref. Now, I know we are always told people become more conservative (and Conservative) as they age, and that seems probable, else Conservatism would have died out years ago... But, is there any evidence that, or reason why, people might become more Euro-sceptic?

    No. By the time of the next election, even if nobody who voted in June 2016 has changed their mind, there will be a majority for Remain imho.
    All things are possible but there seems nothing to base that on either, plus unless something big happens well in advance of the next election, the option on the table at it will be rejoin at some point, not remain, which has been assumed to be a harder sell.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,690
    MaxPB said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Elliot said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Elliot said:

    So a certain Eurasian power is "allegedly" back to its old habit of poisoning people in the UK. Do Labour MPs really want to have as Prime Minister someone who was a paid employee of the Kremlin's propaganda TV?

    That attack line will not work.

    https://politicalscrapbook.net/2017/10/tory-mps-have-taken-much-money-from-russia-today-than-labour-mps/
    I wouldn't want any of those useful idiots as Prime Minister either.
    You'll upset Robert if you keep on calling Kwasi Kwarteng an idiot.
    Future PM right there. He needs a big promotion.
    He’s already the CFO.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 18,672
    rcs1000 said:

    not_on_fire said:

    If the transition is really 5-10 years long then the most likely way it will end is the UK rejoining the EU

    Really?

    I think that's extremely unlikely.

    If we were to have a five year transition, then I would expect that it would be staggered. (Making up things below rather than proposing this exact schedule...)

    So, X + 1 day, we leave the CFP and CAP, and are able to negotiate our own trade deals.

    X + 1 year, leave single market, with free movement, and the following EU administered bodies (ESA, Erasmus, etc.)

    X + 3 years, leave more EU administered bodies.

    X + 5 years, formally leave customs union having negotiated replacement deals.
    The problem with the accession in reverse timetable is the lack of desirable alternatives. We like our car and airplane factories with their supply chains. We like our financial services providing tax for healthcare. We don't really want to go back to customs controls on the Irish border. We won't get third country trade arrangements as good as the ones we have already. There will be the temptation to hold back until the alternatives.are better.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 36,410
    kle4 said:

    Benpointer said:

    HYUFD said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    HYUFD said:

    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    What would be the political price of extending transition ? At the moment, we leave the EU in March 2019 (except we don't really) and how long will people tolerate the limbo of being in the club with no say, continued Freedom of Movement and having to obey EU laws ?

    Sounds like a political death warrant.

    One thing is for certain, neither Tory MPs nor Tory members will allow the transition period to extend up to 2022, it has to have ended by the time of the next general election
    You hope
    No, I know. It would be political suicide for the Tory Party to go into the next general election with 70% of its voters having voted Leave with the UK still in the EU in all but name.

    UKIP would not believe their luck and Farage would come back to lead them in an instant
    The demographic will have changed quite a lot by the next election compared with the EU-Ref. Now, I know we are always told people become more conservative (and Conservative) as they age, and that seems probable, else Conservatism would have died out years ago... But, is there any evidence that, or reason why, people might become more Euro-sceptic?

    No. By the time of the next election, even if nobody who voted in June 2016 has changed their mind, there will be a majority for Remain imho.
    All things are possible but there seems nothing to base that on either, plus unless something big happens well in advance of the next election, the option on the table at it will be rejoin at some point, not remain, which has been assumed to be a harder sell.
    Agreed, but I was making the point in response to a question about transition being extended beyond the next GE.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    The ability to do FTAs seems to be becoming less of a selling point for Brexit by the day. Given that, why rush out of the Customs Union?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 125,258
    Surely extending article 50 is more logical than an open ended transition.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 64,839
    Oh Jacob Rees-Mogg.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 36,410
    SouthamObserver said:

    The ability to do FTAs seems to be becoming less of a selling point for Brexit by the day. Given that, why rush out of the Customs Union?

    Agreed. Any PB-leavers still thinking we will get a beneficial FTA with the US this side of 2025?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 40,109
    Foxy said:

    RobD said:

    Benpointer said:

    HYUFD said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    HYUFD said:

    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    What would be the political price of extending transition ? At the moment, we leave the EU in March 2019 (except we don't really) and how long will people tolerate the limbo of being in the club with no say, continued Freedom of Movement and having to obey EU laws ?

    Sounds like a political death warrant.

    One thing is for certain, neither Tory MPs nor Tory members will allow the transition period to extend up to 2022, it has to have ended by the time of the next general election
    You hope
    No, I know. It would be political suicide for the Tory Party to go into the next general election with 70% of its voters having voted Leave with the UK still in the EU in all but name.

    UKIP would not believe their luck and Farage would come back to lead them in an instant
    The demographic will have changed quite a lot by the next election compared with the EU-Ref. Now, I know we are always told people become more conservative (and Conservative) as they age, and that seems probable, else Conservatism would have died out years ago... But, is there any evidence that, or reason why, people might become more Euro-sceptic?

    No. By the time of the next election, even if nobody who voted in June 2016 has changed their mind, there will be a majority for Remain imho.
    The cohort who voted in both the 1973 and 2016 EU referendum got more eurosceptic.
    Conceivably the older people in 73 voted join, and the youngsters voted out.
    18-29 year olds were 61% Remain, in 1975.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    I thought there was some hope when we started discussing sensible topics like food, health and coffee machines.

    Now it is back to the same old trench warfare...

    Come on Mike - get those Brexit-free days arranged.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 125,258
    SouthamObserver said:

    The ability to do FTAs seems to be becoming less of a selling point for Brexit by the day. Given that, why rush out of the Customs Union?

    Donald Trump's trade war is throwing a spanner into the works on that front for Brexiteers.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,888
    Beverley_C said:

    I thought there was some hope when we started discussing sensible topics like food, health and coffee machines.

    Now it is back to the same old trench warfare...

    Come on Mike - get those Brexit-free days arranged.

    When's the next great AV thread? That'll make the Brexit discussions seem positively tame :D
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 62,655
    Sean_F said:

    Foxy said:

    RobD said:

    Benpointer said:

    HYUFD said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    HYUFD said:

    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    What would be the political price of extending transition ? At the moment, we leave the EU in March 2019 (except we don't really) and how long will people tolerate the limbo of being in the club with no say, continued Freedom of Movement and having to obey EU laws ?

    Sounds like a political death warrant.

    One thing is for certain, neither Tory MPs nor Tory members will allow the transition period to extend up to 2022, it has to have ended by the time of the next general election
    You hope
    No, I know. It would be political suicide for the Tory Party to go into the next general election with 70% of its voters having voted Leave with the UK still in the EU in all but name.

    UKIP would not believe their luck and Farage would come back to lead them in an instant
    The demographic will have changed quite a lot by the next election compared with the EU-Ref. Now, I know we are always told people become more conservative (and Conservative) as they age, and that seems probable, else Conservatism would have died out years ago... But, is there any evidence that, or reason why, people might become more Euro-sceptic?

    No. By the time of the next election, even if nobody who voted in June 2016 has changed their mind, there will be a majority for Remain imho.
    The cohort who voted in both the 1973 and 2016 EU referendum got more eurosceptic.
    Conceivably the older people in 73 voted join, and the youngsters voted out.
    18-29 year olds were 61% Remain, in 1975.
    Interesting: so the younger generation in '75 were more sceptical than the population as a whole.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,981
    Sean_F said:

    Foxy said:

    RobD said:

    Benpointer said:

    HYUFD said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    HYUFD said:

    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    What would be the political price of extending transition ? At the moment, we leave the EU in March 2019 (except we don't really) and how long will people tolerate the limbo of being in the club with no say, continued Freedom of Movement and having to obey EU laws ?

    Sounds like a political death warrant.

    One thing is for certain, neither Tory MPs nor Tory members will allow the transition period to extend up to 2022, it has to have ended by the time of the next general election
    You hope
    No, I know. It would be political suicide for the Tory Party to go into the next general election with 70% of its voters having voted Leave with the UK still in the EU in all but name.

    UKIP would not believe their luck and Farage would come back to lead them in an instant
    The demographic will have changed quite a lot by the next election compared with the EU-Ref. Now, I know we are always told people become more conservative (and Conservative) as they age, and that seems probable, else Conservatism would have died out years ago... But, is there any evidence that, or reason why, people might become more Euro-sceptic?

    No. By the time of the next election, even if nobody who voted in June 2016 has changed their mind, there will be a majority for Remain imho.
    The cohort who voted in both the 1973 and 2016 EU referendum got more eurosceptic.
    Conceivably the older people in 73 voted join, and the youngsters voted out.
    18-29 year olds were 61% Remain, in 1975.
    And they were all the "Boomers For Brexit" this time! :D
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 125,258
    RobD said:

    Beverley_C said:

    I thought there was some hope when we started discussing sensible topics like food, health and coffee machines.

    Now it is back to the same old trench warfare...

    Come on Mike - get those Brexit-free days arranged.

    When's the next great AV thread? That'll make the Brexit discussions seem positively tame :D
    I did a thread yesterday that mentioned AV but no one discussed that aspect of the thread.

    So no more threads on the alternative vote system from me going forward.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 76,426
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    RobD said:

    Beverley_C said:

    I thought there was some hope when we started discussing sensible topics like food, health and coffee machines.

    Now it is back to the same old trench warfare...

    Come on Mike - get those Brexit-free days arranged.

    When's the next great AV thread? That'll make the Brexit discussions seem positively tame :D
    I did a thread yesterday that mentioned AV but no one discussed that aspect of the thread.

    So no more threads on the alternative vote system from me going forward.
    Is that a promise?
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    The ability to do FTAs seems to be becoming less of a selling point for Brexit by the day. Given that, why rush out of the Customs Union?

    Donald Trump's trade war is throwing a spanner into the works on that front for Brexiteers.
    Brexit is a religion - facts are both unnecessary and unwelcome
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 76,426
    Elliot said:

    So a certain Eurasian power is "allegedly" back to its old habit of poisoning people in the UK. Do Labour MPs really want to have as Prime Minister someone who was a paid employee of the Kremlin's propaganda TV?

    No. They have made that abundantly clear many times.

    But Labour members do and they're the ones that count.
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 4,479
    Foxy said:

    RobD said:

    Benpointer said:

    HYUFD said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    HYUFD said:

    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    What would be the political price of extending transition ? At the moment, we leave the EU in March 2019 (except we don't really) and how long will people tolerate the limbo of being in the club with no say, continued Freedom of Movement and having to obey EU laws ?

    Sounds like a political death warrant.

    One thing is for certain, neither Tory MPs nor Tory members will allow the transition period to extend up to 2022, it has to have ended by the time of the next general election
    You hope
    No, I know. It would be political suicide for the Tory Party to go into the next general election with 70% of its voters having voted Leave with the UK still in the EU in all but name.

    UKIP would not believe their luck and Farage would come back to lead them in an instant
    The demographic will have changed quite a lot by the next election compared with the EU-Ref. Now, I know we are always told people become more conservative (and Conservative) as they age, and that seems probable, else Conservatism would have died out years ago... But, is there any evidence that, or reason why, people might become more Euro-sceptic?

    No. By the time of the next election, even if nobody who voted in June 2016 has changed their mind, there will be a majority for Remain imho.
    The cohort who voted in both the 1973 and 2016 EU referendum got more eurosceptic.
    Conceivably the older people in 73 voted join, and the youngsters voted out.
    I was 24 in 1973 and I was an enthusiastic joiner. I changed my mind over the years.

    Good evening, everyone.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    RobD said:

    Beverley_C said:

    I thought there was some hope when we started discussing sensible topics like food, health and coffee machines.

    Now it is back to the same old trench warfare...

    Come on Mike - get those Brexit-free days arranged.

    When's the next great AV thread? That'll make the Brexit discussions seem positively tame :D
    I did a thread yesterday that mentioned AV but no one discussed that aspect of the thread.

    So no more threads on the alternative vote system from me going forward.
    Sorry - I was not around much yesterday so I must have missed it.

    If you appoint me a moderator I promise to delete every Brexit related post on non-Brexit days. I will do it for free as long as I can listen to the screams of outrage :D
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 125,258
    ydoethur said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    RobD said:

    Beverley_C said:

    I thought there was some hope when we started discussing sensible topics like food, health and coffee machines.

    Now it is back to the same old trench warfare...

    Come on Mike - get those Brexit-free days arranged.

    When's the next great AV thread? That'll make the Brexit discussions seem positively tame :D
    I did a thread yesterday that mentioned AV but no one discussed that aspect of the thread.

    So no more threads on the alternative vote system from me going forward.
    Is that a promise?
    Well I might have to do a refresher thread on it for the next Tory leadership contest given the Tories using a form of quasi Alternative Vote to elect their leader.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,888
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    RobD said:

    Beverley_C said:

    I thought there was some hope when we started discussing sensible topics like food, health and coffee machines.

    Now it is back to the same old trench warfare...

    Come on Mike - get those Brexit-free days arranged.

    When's the next great AV thread? That'll make the Brexit discussions seem positively tame :D
    I did a thread yesterday that mentioned AV but no one discussed that aspect of the thread.

    So no more threads on the alternative vote system from me going forward.
    :o I must be going blind in my old age.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    RobD said:

    Beverley_C said:

    I thought there was some hope when we started discussing sensible topics like food, health and coffee machines.

    Now it is back to the same old trench warfare...

    Come on Mike - get those Brexit-free days arranged.

    When's the next great AV thread? That'll make the Brexit discussions seem positively tame :D
    we are having an audio-visual thread? Interesting ....
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,981
    Not much comment here or elsewhere about the Italian General election?
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 4,479
    Beverley_C said:

    I thought there was some hope when we started discussing sensible topics like food, health and coffee machines.

    Now it is back to the same old trench warfare...

    Come on Mike - get those Brexit-free days arranged.

    I lurk a lot more than I post and I haven't read much about shoes, lately, either.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    Benpointer said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    The ability to do FTAs seems to be becoming less of a selling point for Brexit by the day. Given that, why rush out of the Customs Union?

    Agreed. Any PB-leavers still thinking we will get a beneficial FTA with the US this side of 2025?

    Trade deals with any large economy will be on terms it dictates. We are learning that with both the EU and the US. China and Japan would be the same. Leaving the CU, and putting at risk the trade flows and supply lines it enables, for trade agreements with second and third tier economies 10 years down the line is nonsensical.

This discussion has been closed.

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