politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Corbyn speech has made TMay’s Brexit challenge even harder
Comments
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I almost wonder if that's what she WANTS. She has to talk tough, red meat to the right and the ERG mob, but she's waiting for the Commons to do the dirty work for her, act all cross and angry, but make the decisive move to a softer Brexit. That gives her the defendable 'I tried all I could' to the ERG members threatening no confidence letters, with the point that replacing her wouldn't change the maths or the law.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I wonder if TM is working on the basis that she holds her line until a vote in the HOC and in the event she loses the vote she accepts the decision and negotiates on that basis as the Brexiteer's will to all intents and purposes have lost their power.Benpointer said:
'Transition period' bad; 'implementation period' good.TheScreamingEagles said:
It’ll be a customs union in everything but name?TheWhiteRabbit said:
What does it mean to have "Britain having ‘a’ customs union arrangement of one sort or another"?TheScreamingEagles said:
Cannot see it happening.Scott_P said:
I don't think TMay has ruled out every sort of "arrangement".
The no customs restrictions agreement for example ?
'Customs Union' bad; 'some sort of let's not have any customs arrangement' good.
I am sure JRM and go won't see through that will they?
It is unlikely to result in a vote of no confidence as not one of the rebel conservatives will vote to put Corbyn in no 10
A bit like Boris in the referendum campaign really, aiming to become the darling of the right, while making sure he lost the vote so didn't have to deliver anything.0 -
Yeah, of course he always remains calm. Whenever he needs to get angry, he just gets his nanny to be angry for him ...Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Topping, you could just as easily reverse those descriptions.
One thing I like about Mogg is that he always seems calm.0 -
@hugorifkind: The big advantage that the Labour position on Brexit now has over the Conservative position on Brexit is that it is broadly possible to understand what it is.AlastairMeeks said:So Jeremy Corbyn has decided to do what his chief opponent would least like him to do. He's getting the hang of this.
@jackmalvern: @hugorifkind Until now the big advantage that Labour had was that it was impossible to know what its position was.
@hugorifkind: @jackmalvern I know. But I think they may have timed their pivot with the precision of an Olympic ice skater.
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I would not discount it eventually.Not this week She will concede soon on a customs union though.May gets all her best ideas from Labour , caps on energy, review, student fees.Workers representation on company boards.Trouble is most of the party think, she is a gonner before they have the chance to be implemented.williamglenn said:
Surely May can outflank both Corbyn and the loons by offering a second referendum.TOPPING said:
See my editBig_G_NorthWales said:
Pie in the sky - they will not vote out their own governmentTOPPING said:
He can bring the debate to the point whereby the Tory Euroloons rebel en masse rather than concede some tiny point which they don’t understand anyway and vote against May in a confidence vote.Big_G_NorthWales said:
As a mater of interest how do you think Corbyn can force an electionABLAABL said:think it was a decent speech, clear political distance between the Tories and Corbyn out across his message quite well without ever being in danger of approaching charisma...
Corbyn has a massive chance here to force an election if things work how he hopes it will...
https://www.abitleftandabitlost.com/posts/a-tale-of-two-brexit-speeches-and-an-eu-protocol-the-prologue0 -
He's copying Trump.Mexicanpete said:
Is Johnson's final statement ironic? Or is irony lost on Johnson?Scott_P said:
"Crumbling Corbyn" is straight out of the Trump playbook.
"Cynical and deluded" is a typical Trump diversion where he accuses his opponent of the very negative he has himself.0 -
Tonya Harding?Scott_P said:
@hugorifkind: @jackmalvern I know. But I think they may have timed their pivot with the precision of an Olympic ice skater.
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For about twenty minutes until the 1922 letters come flooding in.williamglenn said:
Surely May can outflank both Corbyn and the loons by offering a second referendum.TOPPING said:
See my editBig_G_NorthWales said:
Pie in the sky - they will not vote out their own governmentTOPPING said:
He can bring the debate to the point whereby the Tory Euroloons rebel en masse rather than concede some tiny point which they don’t understand anyway and vote against May in a confidence vote.Big_G_NorthWales said:
As a mater of interest how do you think Corbyn can force an electionABLAABL said:think it was a decent speech, clear political distance between the Tories and Corbyn out across his message quite well without ever being in danger of approaching charisma...
Corbyn has a massive chance here to force an election if things work how he hopes it will...
https://www.abitleftandabitlost.com/posts/a-tale-of-two-brexit-speeches-and-an-eu-protocol-the-prologue
I don’t think there would be a majority of Conservative MPs for a second referendum.
And I reckon the electorate would be furious...0 -
Sandy you should know by now her modus operandi.SandyRentool said:
Oh for goodness sake. I ant her to lose the vote, not change her policy!Scott_P said:0 -
Very true: A U-turn followed by a chorus of "Nothing has changed! Nothing has changed!"Yorkcity said:
Sandy you should no by now her modus operandi.SandyRentool said:
Oh for goodness sake. I ant her to lose the vote, not change her policy!Scott_P said:0 -
Incidentally, unsurprised the EU is apparently looking 'favourably' on the Labour idiocy. It tallies with the leaks following their meeting with the UK Opposition.0
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F1: all engines looking solid at this early stage. Most laps by Ricciardo (Renault), second most by Hartley (Honda). Low temperatures meant less running was done than might otherwise be the case. Otherwise, all we learnt was that the Sauber and Williams look quite similar.0
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How outrageous - Labour had a quiet word with the EU team before announcing a policy. They should do the same as the government - make something up, announce it, and then have the EU say it is a pile of shite.Morris_Dancer said:Incidentally, unsurprised the EU is apparently looking 'favourably' on the Labour idiocy. It tallies with the leaks following their meeting with the UK Opposition.
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https://twitter.com/nick_clegg/status/968169863373033482Morris_Dancer said:Incidentally, unsurprised the EU is apparently looking 'favourably' on the Labour idiocy. It tallies with the leaks following their meeting with the UK Opposition.
https://twitter.com/nick_clegg/status/9681698648578744350 -
If there is a general election in the near term then tactical voting will be even more prevalent than usual.
My reasoning is that there is now a reason for LibDems to tactically vote for Labour in Tory/Labour marginals. In 2017 there was little difference between the Tory and Labour manifesto regarding Brexit so little incentive for LibDems to loan Labour their votes. Now there is.
I have analysed the Tory/Labour marginals in 2017, assumed 50% of LibDems will vote tactically for Labour and nothing else changes. Labour will gain 13 Tory marginals. (LibDems gain 5 Tory marginals if it is reciprocated). NB 50% is a reasonable target in a squeeze campaign.
Factoring in the additional swing of 4% Tory to Labour since the GE gives Labour an extra 26 seats making 39 in total, reducing the Tory majority by 78.0 -
I know that many people say Corbyn is stuck with ,1970s ideas.Does anyone believe May as a leader has any new ideas policies to govern with ?0
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I note that at the tail of that article, Hague implies that we may be heading toward an “abyss”.Scott_P said:
Another sceptic who got mugged by reality.0 -
If there is an election before Brexit, the Tories are gone-burgers.Barnesian said:If there is a general election in the near term then tactical voting will be even more prevalent than usual.
My reasoning is that there is now a reason for LibDems to tactically vote for Labour in Tory/Labour marginals. In 2017 there was little difference between the Tory and Labour manifesto regarding Brexit so little incentive for LibDems to loan Labour their votes. Now there is.
I have analysed the Tory/Labour marginals in 2017, assumed 50% of LibDems will vote tactically for Labour and nothing else changes. Labour will gain 13 Tory marginals. (LibDems gain 5 Tory marginals if it is reciprocated). NB 50% is a reasonable target in a squeeze campaign.
Factoring in the additional swing of 4% Tory to Labour since the GE gives Labour an extra 26 seats making 39 in total, reducing the Tory majority by 78.0 -
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He argued strongly for Remain.Gardenwalker said:
I note that at the tail of that article, Hague implies that we may be heading toward an “abyss”.Scott_P said:
Another sceptic who got mugged by reality.0 -
The issue with chlorinated chicken is the same issue that exists with pretty much all attempts to remove NTBs.John_M said:
I'm still waiting for someone to explain to me how we're going to be forced to buy this radioactive chicken (which I've eaten in the US many times, lovely). This vision we peddle of our sheep-like consumers belies my personal experience.Benpointer said:
Even that, disasterous though it would be, wouldn't achive a frictionless IRE/NI border because Ireland couldn't allow unrestricted imports from NI that might include, for example, substandard electricals from China and/or chlorinated chicken from the US (which those countries would happily dump on us once we declare free trade with the whole world.)rkrkrk said:
Unilaterally declaring free trade with the whole world a la Patrick Minford presumably would.Benpointer said:Is there anything, other than a Customs Union, that will allow both frictionless trade between Ireland and NI, and between NI and Great Britain?
But would probably be fairly disastrous for our industry in other ways...
Most people I know are incredibly picky about food, particularly meat; food miles is still a thing out here in the sticks.
Let's say we allow US chicken to be sold in the US (which I am 100% in favour of). British farmers will, correctly, complain that they are required to produce their food more expensively (higher standards of animal welfare) than US peers.
Do we:
- lower UK standards so they meet the lowest level of our competitors, to protect the British farming industry?
- allow the British farming industry to be undercut by people who produce to lower standards?
There's a very real example of this. The Quebec Provincial Government passed a law requiring that food that contained GMOs be labelled as such. Monsanto took Quebec to an ISDS tribunal, arguing that this requirement to label constituted a Non Tariff Barrier, and the ISDS sided with Monsanto, and resulting in the law being withdrawn.0 -
The problem is that “Crumbling Corbyn” lacks zing. And the alliteration doesn’t make up for the lack of authenticity : in what sense is Corbyn crumbling?Barnesian said:
He's copying Trump.Mexicanpete said:
Is Johnson's final statement ironic? Or is irony lost on Johnson?Scott_P said:
"Crumbling Corbyn" is straight out of the Trump playbook.
"Cynical and deluded" is a typical Trump diversion where he accuses his opponent of the very negative he has himself.
Grumpy Corbyn would be better. Paints him as old and angry.0 -
I think that's harsh - he was an effective advocate for Remain in the campaign. With his track record of campaigning against the Euro "24 hours to save the pound" his journey on the issue is quite a story, he could have been used more effectively by Remain in my view.Gardenwalker said:
I note that at the tail of that article, Hague implies that we may be heading toward an “abyss”.Scott_P said:
Another sceptic who got mugged by reality.
The ones being mugged by reality are those attacking Treasury forecasts because they don't like what they say, and those pretending there are no costs to Brexit in all scenarios.0 -
Indeed!Richard_Nabavi said:
He argued strongly for Remain.Gardenwalker said:
I note that at the tail of that article, Hague implies that we may be heading toward an “abyss”.Scott_P said:
Another sceptic who got mugged by reality.0 -
He allowed Hannan to go from ERG researcher to MEP and built most of his pitch against Blair around opposition to the EU and the Euro. The Brexit rot set in under his leadership.Richard_Nabavi said:
He argued strongly for Remain.Gardenwalker said:
I note that at the tail of that article, Hague implies that we may be heading toward an “abyss”.Scott_P said:
Another sceptic who got mugged by reality.0 -
Yes. He’s been on a journey. Like many.tpfkar said:
I think that's harsh - he was an effective advocate for Remain in the campaign. With his track record of campaigning against the Euro "24 hours to save the pound" his journey on the issue is quite a story, he could have been used more effectively by Remain in my view.Gardenwalker said:
I note that at the tail of that article, Hague implies that we may be heading toward an “abyss”.Scott_P said:
Another sceptic who got mugged by reality.
The ones being mugged by reality are those attacking Treasury forecasts because they don't like what they say, and those pretending there are no costs to Brexit in all scenarios.
He could front a campaign called, I changed my mind, if we were to have another ref.0 -
Why is it a 'journey'? It's perfectly sensible to argue against membership of the Euro and for remaining in the EU (especially with Dave's deal). I know this, because it was exactly my position.tpfkar said:
I think that's harsh - he was an effective advocate for Remain in the campaign. With his track record of campaigning against the Euro "24 hours to save the pound" his journey on the issue is quite a story, he could have been used more effectively by Remain in my view.Gardenwalker said:
I note that at the tail of that article, Hague implies that we may be heading toward an “abyss”.Scott_P said:
Another sceptic who got mugged by reality.
The ones being mugged by reality are those attacking Treasury forecasts because they don't like what they say, and those pretending there are no costs to Brexit in all scenarios.
I agree he could have been used in the campaign more effectively.0 -
Unilaterally declaring free trade with the whole world does not allow UK goods into Ireland without tariffs.rkrkrk said:
Unilaterally declaring free trade with the whole world a la Patrick Minford presumably would.Benpointer said:Is there anything, other than a Customs Union, that will allow both frictionless trade between Ireland and NI, and between NI and Great Britain?
But would probably be fairly disastrous for our industry in other ways...0 -
Minford is to trade economics as David Irving is to the Holocaust.David_Evershed said:
Unilaterally declaring free trade with the whole world does not allow UK goods into Ireland without tariffs.rkrkrk said:
Unilaterally declaring free trade with the whole world a la Patrick Minford presumably would.Benpointer said:Is there anything, other than a Customs Union, that will allow both frictionless trade between Ireland and NI, and between NI and Great Britain?
But would probably be fairly disastrous for our industry in other ways...0 -
You don't KNOW that, you THINK it because it IS your positionRichard_Nabavi said:
Why is it a 'journey'? It's perfectly sensible to argue against membership of the Euro and for remaining in the EU (especially with Dave's deal). I know this, because it was exactly my position.tpfkar said:
I think that's harsh - he was an effective advocate for Remain in the campaign. With his track record of campaigning against the Euro "24 hours to save the pound" his journey on the issue is quite a story, he could have been used more effectively by Remain in my view.Gardenwalker said:
I note that at the tail of that article, Hague implies that we may be heading toward an “abyss”.Scott_P said:
Another sceptic who got mugged by reality.
The ones being mugged by reality are those attacking Treasury forecasts because they don't like what they say, and those pretending there are no costs to Brexit in all scenarios.
I agree he could have been used in the campaign more effectively.
I think my position is perfectly sensible too, but that doesn't mean it is!0 -
You’re right - it would be frictionless in one direction only.David_Evershed said:
Unilaterally declaring free trade with the whole world does not allow UK goods into Ireland without tariffs.rkrkrk said:
Unilaterally declaring free trade with the whole world a la Patrick Minford presumably would.Benpointer said:Is there anything, other than a Customs Union, that will allow both frictionless trade between Ireland and NI, and between NI and Great Britain?
But would probably be fairly disastrous for our industry in other ways...0 -
You might have missed a frisson of irony in my post...PeterMannion said:
You don't KNOW that, you THINK it because it IS your positionRichard_Nabavi said:
Why is it a 'journey'? It's perfectly sensible to argue against membership of the Euro and for remaining in the EU (especially with Dave's deal). I know this, because it was exactly my position.tpfkar said:
I think that's harsh - he was an effective advocate for Remain in the campaign. With his track record of campaigning against the Euro "24 hours to save the pound" his journey on the issue is quite a story, he could have been used more effectively by Remain in my view.Gardenwalker said:
I note that at the tail of that article, Hague implies that we may be heading toward an “abyss”.Scott_P said:
Another sceptic who got mugged by reality.
The ones being mugged by reality are those attacking Treasury forecasts because they don't like what they say, and those pretending there are no costs to Brexit in all scenarios.
I agree he could have been used in the campaign more effectively.
I think my position is perfectly sensible too, but that doesn't mean it is!0 -
Yes - Boris is not very good at it. But he's the nearest the Tories have to a Trump figure who can cut through. (As well as having the hair and the narcissism). That's why I think Boris will be the next Tory leader. Trump-lite.Gardenwalker said:
The problem is that “Crumbling Corbyn” lacks zing. And the alliteration doesn’t make up for the lack of authenticity : in what sense is Corbyn crumbling?Barnesian said:
He's copying Trump.Mexicanpete said:
Is Johnson's final statement ironic? Or is irony lost on Johnson?Scott_P said:
"Crumbling Corbyn" is straight out of the Trump playbook.
"Cynical and deluded" is a typical Trump diversion where he accuses his opponent of the very negative he has himself.
Grumpy Corbyn would be better. Paints him as old and angry.0 -
Some of the advocates of unilateral free trade simultaneously want to adopt protectionist policies...David_Evershed said:
Unilaterally declaring free trade with the whole world does not allow UK goods into Ireland without tariffs.rkrkrk said:
Unilaterally declaring free trade with the whole world a la Patrick Minford presumably would.Benpointer said:Is there anything, other than a Customs Union, that will allow both frictionless trade between Ireland and NI, and between NI and Great Britain?
But would probably be fairly disastrous for our industry in other ways...
https://twitter.com/johnredwood/status/9673538760673730560 -
The 20 most marginal Conservative seats (with Labour second) already have the Lib Dems on an average 3.5% vote share. They've already been squeezed till the pips squeak.Barnesian said:If there is a general election in the near term then tactical voting will be even more prevalent than usual.
My reasoning is that there is now a reason for LibDems to tactically vote for Labour in Tory/Labour marginals. In 2017 there was little difference between the Tory and Labour manifesto regarding Brexit so little incentive for LibDems to loan Labour their votes. Now there is.
I have analysed the Tory/Labour marginals in 2017, assumed 50% of LibDems will vote tactically for Labour and nothing else changes. Labour will gain 13 Tory marginals. (LibDems gain 5 Tory marginals if it is reciprocated). NB 50% is a reasonable target in a squeeze campaign.
Factoring in the additional swing of 4% Tory to Labour since the GE gives Labour an extra 26 seats making 39 in total, reducing the Tory majority by 78.
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Errr. Why would he bother, if he could just come as a tourist to the UK and overstay his welcome?Mexicanpete said:
How will an electronic system stop your Polish hop picker crossing the border into the UK?TGOHF said:
But could be all electronic.Benpointer said:
Unless we are in a customs union with the EU, the IRE/NI or the NI/GB border will have some level of friction.Richard_Nabavi said:
Oh, I agree that the Patrick Minford idea is a complete non-starter (although I think he's advocating zero tariffs, not zero safety standards). But we need to think clearly, and it simply is not the case that there is some universal law of nature which dictates that there would have to be a hard border and customs inspections simply because regulations (and even tariffs) applied to cross-border trade. The nature of any enforcement mechanism would be a political/administrative decision, based (one would hope) on an objective assessment of risks, and frankly the risk of dodgy chickens crossing the border in huge numbers, and somehow even getting across to France and Germany, without anyone noticing, is zero - certainly far less than the current risk of cigarette smuggling.Benpointer said:
Ok, they could allow it, but why would they? Of course they wouldn't.Richard_Nabavi said:
Why not?Benpointer said:
Even that, disasterous though it would be, wouldn't achive a frictionless IRE/NI border because Ireland couldn't allow unrestricted imports from NI that might include, for example, substandard electricals from China and/or chlorinated chicken from the US (which those countries would happily dump on us once we declare free trade with the whole world.)rkrkrk said:
Unilaterally declaring free trade with the whole world a la Patrick Minford presumably would.Benpointer said:Is there anything, other than a Customs Union, that will allow both frictionless trade between Ireland and NI, and between NI and Great Britain?
But would probably be fairly disastrous for our industry in other ways...
And how many incidents (deaths) due to un-restricted imports of sub-standard food, electricals, pharmaceuticals etc. would we it take before our unilateral free trade policy brought the government of the day down? Admit it, it's a complete non-starter.
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Mr. Rentool, the negotiation is a matter for the Executive. The EU seeking to influence the Commons by conniving with the Opposition to influence or defeat the Government is not edifying, and unlikely to delight either those who voted to Leave or those who voted Remain but believe the Commons should be acting in the interest of the UK rather than colluding with those facing us across the negotiating table.
Still, Corbyn has never had the UK interest at heart, so not doubt he and the EU enjoyed a warm discussion.0 -
And non-EU illegals. There are plenty of Albanians who came to the UK as tourists and stayed as car washers.TGOHF said:Mexicanpete said:
How will an electronic system stop your Polish hop picker crossing the border into the UK?TGOHF said:
But could be all electronic.Benpointer said:
Unless we are in a customs union with the EU, the IRE/NI or the NI/GB border will have some level of friction.Richard_Nabavi said:
Oh, I agree that the Patrick Minford idea is a complete non-starter (although I think he's advocating zero tariffs, not zero safety standards). But we need to think clearly, and it simply is not the case that there is some universal law of nature which dictates that there would have to be a hard border and customs inspections simply because regulations (and even tariffs) applied to cross-border trade. The nature of any enforcement mechanism would be a political/administrative decision, based (one would hope) on an objective assessment of risks, and frankly the risk of dodgy chickens crossing the border in huge numbers, and somehow even getting across to France and Germany, without anyone noticing, is zero - certainly far less than the current risk of cigarette smuggling.Benpointer said:
Ok, they could allow it, but why would they? Of course they wouldn't.Richard_Nabavi said:
Why not?Benpointer said:
Even that, disasterous though it would be, wouldn't achive a frictionless IRE/NI border because Ireland couldn't allow unrestricted imports from NI that might include, for example, substandard electricals from China and/or chlorinated chicken from the US (which those countries would happily dump on us once we declare free trade with the whole world.)rkrkrk said:
Unilaterally declaring free trade with the whole world a la Patrick Minford presumably would.Benpointer said:Is there anything, other than a Customs Union, that will allow both frictionless trade between Ireland and NI, and between NI and Great Britain?
But would probably be fairly disastrous for our industry in other ways...
And how many incidents (deaths) due to un-restricted imports of sub-standard food, electricals, pharmaceuticals etc. would we it take before our unilateral free trade policy brought the government of the day down? Admit it, it's a complete non-starter.
In the same way as it doesn't stop non EU illegals now.
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The flaw in your analysis is: why would Liberals vote in such a way so that they damage their own party and get a Marxist government which they dont support with a leader who is a Leaver?Sean_F said:
The 20 most marginal Conservative seats (with Labour second) already have the Lib Dems on an average 3.5% vote share. They've already been squeezed till the pips squeak.Barnesian said:If there is a general election in the near term then tactical voting will be even more prevalent than usual.
My reasoning is that there is now a reason for LibDems to tactically vote for Labour in Tory/Labour marginals. In 2017 there was little difference between the Tory and Labour manifesto regarding Brexit so little incentive for LibDems to loan Labour their votes. Now there is.
I have analysed the Tory/Labour marginals in 2017, assumed 50% of LibDems will vote tactically for Labour and nothing else changes. Labour will gain 13 Tory marginals. (LibDems gain 5 Tory marginals if it is reciprocated). NB 50% is a reasonable target in a squeeze campaign.
Factoring in the additional swing of 4% Tory to Labour since the GE gives Labour an extra 26 seats making 39 in total, reducing the Tory majority by 78.0 -
I see no where in that quite where Redwood is advocating putting up barriers or adopting protectionist policies. Removing quotas and buying local rather than importing stuff we already produce here is not protectionism. It is common sense.williamglenn said:
Some of the advocates of unilateral free trade simultaneously want to adopt protectionist policies...David_Evershed said:
Unilaterally declaring free trade with the whole world does not allow UK goods into Ireland without tariffs.rkrkrk said:
Unilaterally declaring free trade with the whole world a la Patrick Minford presumably would.Benpointer said:Is there anything, other than a Customs Union, that will allow both frictionless trade between Ireland and NI, and between NI and Great Britain?
But would probably be fairly disastrous for our industry in other ways...
https://twitter.com/johnredwood/status/9673538760673730560 -
Yes all agreed. I wonder how he really feels about the 2001 campaign now.Richard_Nabavi said:
Why is it a 'journey'? It's perfectly sensible to argue against membership of the Euro and for remaining in the EU (especially with Dave's deal). I know this, because it was exactly my position.tpfkar said:
I think that's harsh - he was an effective advocate for Remain in the campaign. With his track record of campaigning against the Euro "24 hours to save the pound" his journey on the issue is quite a story, he could have been used more effectively by Remain in my view.Gardenwalker said:
I note that at the tail of that article, Hague implies that we may be heading toward an “abyss”.Scott_P said:
Another sceptic who got mugged by reality.
The ones being mugged by reality are those attacking Treasury forecasts because they don't like what they say, and those pretending there are no costs to Brexit in all scenarios.
I agree he could have been used in the campaign more effectively.0 -
I have just been trawling through the comments on Twitter about Corbyn's speech. I was impressed by the speech itself, but the support it is getting is quite surprising. The phobes are as negative as ever, but the remainers seem surprisingly happy. Quite a few very pro tweets that don't look like they come from partisans.
Whatever else we have learned, Corbyn shouldn't be underestimated.0 -
Errr no.TOPPING said:
Tyndall and R Smithson were arguing amongst themselves recently about what a free trade deal would mean we could or couldn’t do.TheScreamingEagles said:
I have written reports from people who have worked, inter alia at the WTO, who say otherwise.Richard_Tyndall said:
No it doesn't. If you think that you really don't know what you are talking about.TheScreamingEagles said:
Protects trade and the economy ensuring no disruption to trade.Sean_F said:
How does their proposed amendment assist us?TheScreamingEagles said:
Country before party.Essexit said:She won't be facing an entirely united Labour Party. There's the Labour Leavers plus Caroline Flint and other Brexit means Brexit Remainers. Tories flirting with the idea of rebelling night ask themselves if they really want to hand Jeremy Corbyn this victory.
A bad Brexit begets Corbyn as Prime Minister.
Soubry, Grieve et al are acting like true patriots.
It also solves the Irish Border question.
I know they are experts but I'll place more faith in their views than yours.
PB Leavers’ finest minds with no clue between them what Leaving actually meant.
I was merely pointing out that Turkey is in a customs union with the EU, rather than in the EU Customs Union.0 -
He was right, but at a time when the public were not ready to appreciate it. A kind of John the Baptist figure.williamglenn said:
He allowed Hannan to go from ERG researcher to MEP and built most of his pitch against Blair around opposition to the EU and the Euro. The Brexit rot set in under his leadership.Richard_Nabavi said:
He argued strongly for Remain.Gardenwalker said:
I note that at the tail of that article, Hague implies that we may be heading toward an “abyss”.Scott_P said:
Another sceptic who got mugged by reality.0 -
Nick Herbert was on such a journey, or had completed it, and led the Remain Cons group, having done the same for Business for Sterling earlier.Richard_Nabavi said:
Why is it a 'journey'? It's perfectly sensible to argue against membership of the Euro and for remaining in the EU (especially with Dave's deal). I know this, because it was exactly my position.tpfkar said:
I think that's harsh - he was an effective advocate for Remain in the campaign. With his track record of campaigning against the Euro "24 hours to save the pound" his journey on the issue is quite a story, he could have been used more effectively by Remain in my view.Gardenwalker said:
I note that at the tail of that article, Hague implies that we may be heading toward an “abyss”.Scott_P said:
Another sceptic who got mugged by reality.
The ones being mugged by reality are those attacking Treasury forecasts because they don't like what they say, and those pretending there are no costs to Brexit in all scenarios.
I agree he could have been used in the campaign more effectively.
But he had absolutely no response, on DP, to Kate Hoey asking him how, if we remained in the EU, the UK was going to restrict immigration. That for me was a defining moment.
And all the PB Leavers tell us it is nothing to do with foreigners.0 -
I think Redwood wants a return to that golden era when we made our own besom brooms and hobnail boots.williamglenn said:
Some of the advocates of unilateral free trade simultaneously want to adopt protectionist policies...David_Evershed said:
Unilaterally declaring free trade with the whole world does not allow UK goods into Ireland without tariffs.rkrkrk said:
Unilaterally declaring free trade with the whole world a la Patrick Minford presumably would.Benpointer said:Is there anything, other than a Customs Union, that will allow both frictionless trade between Ireland and NI, and between NI and Great Britain?
But would probably be fairly disastrous for our industry in other ways...
https://twitter.com/johnredwood/status/9673538760673730560 -
The key word in the first line of your post is negotiation. Announcing a load of nonsense off the cuff, that the other side then describe as a load of shite is not how to conduct a negotiation.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Rentool, the negotiation is a matter for the Executive. The EU seeking to influence the Commons by conniving with the Opposition to influence or defeat the Government is not edifying, and unlikely to delight either those who voted to Leave or those who voted Remain but believe the Commons should be acting in the interest of the UK rather than colluding with those facing us across the negotiating table.
Still, Corbyn has never had the UK interest at heart, so not doubt he and the EU enjoyed a warm discussion.
On that note, I must be off...0 -
Given that it's going to take us around a decade before we manage to get back to parity with where the EU is in terms of trade agreements, what's wrong with a time limited Customs Union, say five or seven years?Morris_Dancer said:Incidentally, unsurprised the EU is apparently looking 'favourably' on the Labour idiocy. It tallies with the leaks following their meeting with the UK Opposition.
0 -
He's just angry that consumers prefer Reblochon over Lymeswold.Richard_Tyndall said:
I see no where in that quite where Redwood is advocating putting up barriers or adopting protectionist policies. Removing quotas and buying local rather than importing stuff we already produce here is not protectionism. It is common sense.williamglenn said:
Some of the advocates of unilateral free trade simultaneously want to adopt protectionist policies...David_Evershed said:
Unilaterally declaring free trade with the whole world does not allow UK goods into Ireland without tariffs.rkrkrk said:
Unilaterally declaring free trade with the whole world a la Patrick Minford presumably would.Benpointer said:Is there anything, other than a Customs Union, that will allow both frictionless trade between Ireland and NI, and between NI and Great Britain?
But would probably be fairly disastrous for our industry in other ways...
https://twitter.com/johnredwood/status/9673538760673730560 -
The problem with the Minford position is that it would result in a proliferation of non tariff barriers (which would inevitably end up being tit-for-tat), and therefore a diminution of free trade.Gardenwalker said:
Minford is to trade economics as David Irving is to the Holocaust.David_Evershed said:
Unilaterally declaring free trade with the whole world does not allow UK goods into Ireland without tariffs.rkrkrk said:
Unilaterally declaring free trade with the whole world a la Patrick Minford presumably would.Benpointer said:Is there anything, other than a Customs Union, that will allow both frictionless trade between Ireland and NI, and between NI and Great Britain?
But would probably be fairly disastrous for our industry in other ways...0 -
He had no answer to that because there is no answer to it, except for the not unreasonable hope that the numbers would drop once the Eurozone economies picked up again. It was by miles the strongest argument in favour of leaving, although how much difference it will actually make in practice remains to be seen.TOPPING said:Nick Herbert was on such a journey, or had completed it, and led the Remain Cons group, having done the same for Business for Sterling earlier.
But he had absolutely no response, on DP, to Kate Hoey asking him how, if we remained in the EU, the UK was going to restrict immigration. That for me was a defining moment.
And all the PB Leavers tell us it is nothing to do with foreigners.
I'd challenge the idea that it was just about 'foreigners' though; that might have been the driver in communities where there had been a sudden and very large influx of EU migrants, changing the character of the area, but for many it was simply about numbers and the impact on the total population of this island.
0 -
I see that nice Mr Clegg has helpfully shown you are talking bollocks again TSE. Customs restrictions are not the only restrictions. That is why the Single Market and the Customs Union are not the same thing. Perhaps you should learn some basics before commenting on this again.TheScreamingEagles said:
Let us use the Turkish model.Richard_Tyndall said:
Of course you will, even when you are being dishonest or foolish you cannot afford to concede any points - just like you couldn't with the idiocy you were pushing about PCSOs on the previous thread.TheScreamingEagles said:
I have written reports from people who have worked, inter alia at the WTO, who say otherwise.Richard_Tyndall said:
No it doesn't. If you think that you really don't know what you are talking about.TheScreamingEagles said:
Protects trade and the economy ensuring no disruption to trade.Sean_F said:
How does their proposed amendment assist us?TheScreamingEagles said:
Country before party.Essexit said:She won't be facing an entirely united Labour Party. There's the Labour Leavers plus Caroline Flint and other Brexit means Brexit Remainers. Tories flirting with the idea of rebelling night ask themselves if they really want to hand Jeremy Corbyn this victory.
A bad Brexit begets Corbyn as Prime Minister.
Soubry, Grieve et al are acting like true patriots.
It also solves the Irish Border question.
I know they are experts but I'll place more faith in their views than yours.
So.
How exactly does being in the Customs Union but not the SM ensure no disruption to trade? (here's a clue, it doesn't)
How exactly does being in the Customs Union but not the SM solve the Irish Border question? (here's another clue. It doesn't).
I hope whoever you were writing reports for will be trying to get their money back if that is the garbage you are writing.
For non agricultural physical goods are there any customs restrictions between Turkey and The EU? Yes or No?0 -
Mr. 1000, the Corbyn proposal, according to the BBC headline, is for permanent membership: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-43189878
A time-limited (transition period) membership is something for which a case can be made.0 -
I think the argument against Redwood here is that - if you look back to the time when the UK last had genuinely free trade with the rest of the world - then the average Brit got a greater proportion of their calories from overseas than now.Richard_Tyndall said:
I see no where in that quite where Redwood is advocating putting up barriers or adopting protectionist policies. Removing quotas and buying local rather than importing stuff we already produce here is not protectionism. It is common sense.williamglenn said:
Some of the advocates of unilateral free trade simultaneously want to adopt protectionist policies...David_Evershed said:
Unilaterally declaring free trade with the whole world does not allow UK goods into Ireland without tariffs.rkrkrk said:
Unilaterally declaring free trade with the whole world a la Patrick Minford presumably would.Benpointer said:Is there anything, other than a Customs Union, that will allow both frictionless trade between Ireland and NI, and between NI and Great Britain?
But would probably be fairly disastrous for our industry in other ways...
https://twitter.com/johnredwood/status/967353876067373056
And that was 120 years ago, when the costs of transportation were an order of magnitude higher than now.0 -
So Labour as opposition should announce they fully back whatever the Tories are negotiating!?Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Rentool, the negotiation is a matter for the Executive. The EU seeking to influence the Commons by conniving with the Opposition to influence or defeat the Government is not edifying, and unlikely to delight either those who voted to Leave or those who voted Remain but believe the Commons should be acting in the interest of the UK rather than colluding with those facing us across the negotiating table.
Still, Corbyn has never had the UK interest at heart, so not doubt he and the EU enjoyed a warm discussion.
Or they should aim to keep their views secret from the Commission?
Or they should refuse to discuss what they would negotiate for with the EU?
Because doubtless TM and her govt is only discussing issues with Mr Barnier and no one would ever dream of suggesting she seek to divide European nations to soften their negotiating stance.
0 -
Take Calder Valley. Tory majority 609. LibDem vote 1952. No doubt the LD vote has already been squeezed but many of those 1952 LD voters were not to be squeezed because of Labour's Brexit policy. That will have changed.Sean_F said:
The 20 most marginal Conservative seats (with Labour second) already have the Lib Dems on an average 3.5% vote share. They've already been squeezed till the pips squeak.Barnesian said:If there is a general election in the near term then tactical voting will be even more prevalent than usual.
My reasoning is that there is now a reason for LibDems to tactically vote for Labour in Tory/Labour marginals. In 2017 there was little difference between the Tory and Labour manifesto regarding Brexit so little incentive for LibDems to loan Labour their votes. Now there is.
I have analysed the Tory/Labour marginals in 2017, assumed 50% of LibDems will vote tactically for Labour and nothing else changes. Labour will gain 13 Tory marginals. (LibDems gain 5 Tory marginals if it is reciprocated). NB 50% is a reasonable target in a squeeze campaign.
Factoring in the additional swing of 4% Tory to Labour since the GE gives Labour an extra 26 seats making 39 in total, reducing the Tory majority by 78.
The 13 marginals are Broxtowe (perhaps an exception), Calder Valley, Chipping Barnet, Finchley, Hastings, Thurrock, Pudsey, Putney, Truro, Watford, Presele, S'Hpton Itchen, Southport.0 -
Who do you see playing the Herod role?Sean_F said:
He was right, but at a time when the public were not ready to appreciate it. A kind of John the Baptist figure.williamglenn said:
He allowed Hannan to go from ERG researcher to MEP and built most of his pitch against Blair around opposition to the EU and the Euro. The Brexit rot set in under his leadership.Richard_Nabavi said:
He argued strongly for Remain.Gardenwalker said:
I note that at the tail of that article, Hague implies that we may be heading toward an “abyss”.Scott_P said:
Another sceptic who got mugged by reality.-1 -
I make the starting points for the local elections:
Con 1321
Lab 2103
LD 427
Other 308
That is all flavours of councillors (London, Unitary, Metropolitan & District)
{Obviously no county this year}0 -
Why don't you answer my question instead of acting like a de haut en bas twat?Richard_Tyndall said:
I see that nice Mr Clegg has helpfully shown you are talking bollocks again TSE. Customs restrictions are not the only restrictions. That is why the Single Market and the Customs Union are not the same thing. Perhaps you should learn some basics before commenting on this again.TheScreamingEagles said:
Let us use the Turkish model.Richard_Tyndall said:
Of course you will, even when you are being dishonest or foolish you cannot afford to concede any points - just like you couldn't with the idiocy you were pushing about PCSOs on the previous thread.TheScreamingEagles said:
I have written reports from people who have worked, inter alia at the WTO, who say otherwise.Richard_Tyndall said:
No it doesn't. If you think that you really don't know what you are talking about.TheScreamingEagles said:
Protects trade and the economy ensuring no disruption to trade.Sean_F said:
How does their proposed amendment assist us?TheScreamingEagles said:
Country before party.Essexit said:She won't be facing an entirely united Labour Party. There's the Labour Leavers plus Caroline Flint and other Brexit means Brexit Remainers. Tories flirting with the idea of rebelling night ask themselves if they really want to hand Jeremy Corbyn this victory.
A bad Brexit begets Corbyn as Prime Minister.
Soubry, Grieve et al are acting like true patriots.
It also solves the Irish Border question.
I know they are experts but I'll place more faith in their views than yours.
So.
How exactly does being in the Customs Union but not the SM ensure no disruption to trade? (here's a clue, it doesn't)
How exactly does being in the Customs Union but not the SM solve the Irish Border question? (here's another clue. It doesn't).
I hope whoever you were writing reports for will be trying to get their money back if that is the garbage you are writing.
For non agricultural physical goods are there any customs restrictions between Turkey and The EU? Yes or No?
For non agricultural physical goods are there any customs restrictions between Turkey and The EU? Yes or No?
My report was produced by people with a combined 15 years time at the WTO, what is your experience at the WTO and Sir Nick Clegg's?0 -
Indeed and I was pointing out that the Turkish Customs Union is not an advantageous position to be in. Something Topping and Corbyn both now seem to be advocating.rcs1000 said:
Errr no.TOPPING said:
Tyndall and R Smithson were arguing amongst themselves recently about what a free trade deal would mean we could or couldn’t do.TheScreamingEagles said:
I have written reports from people who have worked, inter alia at the WTO, who say otherwise.Richard_Tyndall said:
No it doesn't. If you think that you really don't know what you are talking about.TheScreamingEagles said:
Protects trade and the economy ensuring no disruption to trade.Sean_F said:
How does their proposed amendment assist us?TheScreamingEagles said:
Country before party.Essexit said:She won't be facing an entirely united Labour Party. There's the Labour Leavers plus Caroline Flint and other Brexit means Brexit Remainers. Tories flirting with the idea of rebelling night ask themselves if they really want to hand Jeremy Corbyn this victory.
A bad Brexit begets Corbyn as Prime Minister.
Soubry, Grieve et al are acting like true patriots.
It also solves the Irish Border question.
I know they are experts but I'll place more faith in their views than yours.
PB Leavers’ finest minds with no clue between them what Leaving actually meant.
I was merely pointing out that Turkey is in a customs union with the EU, rather than in the EU Customs Union.0 -
Or indeed the Salome role?rcs1000 said:
Who do you see playing the Herod role?Sean_F said:
He was right, but at a time when the public were not ready to appreciate it. A kind of John the Baptist figure.williamglenn said:
He allowed Hannan to go from ERG researcher to MEP and built most of his pitch against Blair around opposition to the EU and the Euro. The Brexit rot set in under his leadership.Richard_Nabavi said:
He argued strongly for Remain.Gardenwalker said:
I note that at the tail of that article, Hague implies that we may be heading toward an “abyss”.Scott_P said:
Another sceptic who got mugged by reality.0 -
Which is one argument for standardisation (there are others). It doesn't matter so much what the rules are, as long as they are the same for everyone. Unless you are party to the decision-making, this means rule-taking.rcs1000 said:The issue with chlorinated chicken is the same issue that exists with pretty much all attempts to remove NTBs.
Let's say we allow US chicken to be sold in the US (which I am 100% in favour of). British farmers will, correctly, complain that they are required to produce their food more expensively (higher standards of animal welfare) than US peers.
Do we:
- lower UK standards so they meet the lowest level of our competitors, to protect the British farming industry?
- allow the British farming industry to be undercut by people who produce to lower standards?
There's a very real example of this. The Quebec Provincial Government passed a law requiring that food that contained GMOs be labelled as such. Monsanto took Quebec to an ISDS tribunal, arguing that this requirement to label constituted a Non Tariff Barrier, and the ISDS sided with Monsanto, and resulting in the law being withdrawn.
0 -
Mr Clegg says you are talking out of your arse again.TheScreamingEagles said:
I used the Turkish model because it is the most relevant case in this situation.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Eagles, the Turkish model? Making us subject to the EU negotiating deals, whereby third party nations can enjoy benefits exporting to us (as per EU nations) but we do not enjoy the corresponding benefits exporting to them (unlike EU nations but like Turkey)?
It's almost as if staying in A/The/Ze/I Can't Believe It's Not The Customs Union is a bad idea.
I expect ours would be more favourable given the difference in the economies of The UK and Turkey and relative importance of us to the EU27.0 -
Mr. rkrkrk, there are two sides in this negotiation. Given Corbyn's past and more recent utterances, a charitable man might say it's unclear which side of the table he's sat on.
Mr. 1000, Herod comes across as a very interesting figure in Josephus' The Jewish War. Heroic in his youth, generally a good king, but too fond of overmighty towers funded by punitive taxation.0 -
120 years ago our trade with the rest of the world was less free than it is now if you look at average tariffs on total imports.rcs1000 said:
I think the argument against Redwood here is that - if you look back to the time when the UK last had genuinely free trade with the rest of the world - then the average Brit got a greater proportion of their calories from overseas than now.Richard_Tyndall said:
I see no where in that quite where Redwood is advocating putting up barriers or adopting protectionist policies. Removing quotas and buying local rather than importing stuff we already produce here is not protectionism. It is common sense.williamglenn said:
Some of the advocates of unilateral free trade simultaneously want to adopt protectionist policies...David_Evershed said:
Unilaterally declaring free trade with the whole world does not allow UK goods into Ireland without tariffs.rkrkrk said:
Unilaterally declaring free trade with the whole world a la Patrick Minford presumably would.Benpointer said:Is there anything, other than a Customs Union, that will allow both frictionless trade between Ireland and NI, and between NI and Great Britain?
But would probably be fairly disastrous for our industry in other ways...
https://twitter.com/johnredwood/status/967353876067373056
And that was 120 years ago, when the costs of transportation were an order of magnitude higher than now.
0 -
No. There are no customs restrictions.TheScreamingEagles said:
Why don't you answer my question instead of acting like a de haut en bas twat?
For non agricultural physical goods are there any customs restrictions between Turkey and The EU? Yes or No?
My report was produced by people with a combined 15 years time at the WTO, what is your experience at the WTO and Sir Nick Clegg's?
Now you answer mine fuckwit. Are customs restrictions the only ones that exist between countries inside and outside the Single Market? If not you are once again using straw man arguments to cover your own ignorance.
Something we are very familiar with on here when you are on the wrong side of reality.
0 -
I don't think that's a weighted average number, but a simple average.williamglenn said:
120 years ago our trade with the rest of the world was less free than it is now if you look at average tariffs on total imports.rcs1000 said:
I think the argument against Redwood here is that - if you look back to the time when the UK last had genuinely free trade with the rest of the world - then the average Brit got a greater proportion of their calories from overseas than now.Richard_Tyndall said:
I see no where in that quite where Redwood is advocating putting up barriers or adopting protectionist policies. Removing quotas and buying local rather than importing stuff we already produce here is not protectionism. It is common sense.williamglenn said:
Some of the advocates of unilateral free trade simultaneously want to adopt protectionist policies...David_Evershed said:
Unilaterally declaring free trade with the whole world does not allow UK goods into Ireland without tariffs.rkrkrk said:
Unilaterally declaring free trade with the whole world a la Patrick Minford presumably would.Benpointer said:Is there anything, other than a Customs Union, that will allow both frictionless trade between Ireland and NI, and between NI and Great Britain?
But would probably be fairly disastrous for our industry in other ways...
https://twitter.com/johnredwood/status/967353876067373056
And that was 120 years ago, when the costs of transportation were an order of magnitude higher than now.0 -
It’s 2010. Who would predict that in just 8 years time,TheScreamingEagles said:
Why don't you answer my question instead of acting like a de haut en bas twat?Richard_Tyndall said:
I see that nice Mr Clegg has helpfully shown you are talking bollocks again TSE. Customs restrictions are not the only restrictions. That is why the Single Market and the Customs Union are not the same thing. Perhaps you should learn some basics before commenting on this again.TheScreamingEagles said:
Let us use the Turkish model.Richard_Tyndall said:
I hope whoever you were writing reports for will be trying to get their money back if that is the garbage you are writing.TheScreamingEagles said:
I have written reports from people who have worked, inter alia at the WTO, who say otherwise.Richard_Tyndall said:
No it doesn't. If you think that you really don't know what you are talking about.TheScreamingEagles said:
Protects trade and the economy ensuring no disruption to trade.Sean_F said:
How does their proposed amendment assist us?TheScreamingEagles said:
Country before party.Essexit said:She won't be facing an entirely united Labour Party. There's the Labour Leavers plus Caroline Flint and other Brexit means Brexit Remainers. Tories flirting with the idea of rebelling night ask themselves if they really want to hand Jeremy Corbyn this victory.
A bad Brexit begets Corbyn as Prime Minister.
Soubry, Grieve et al are acting like true patriots.
It also solves the Irish Border question.
I know they are experts but I'll place more faith in their views than yours.
For non agricultural physical goods are there any customs restrictions between Turkey and The EU? Yes or No?
For non agricultural physical goods are there any customs restrictions between Turkey and The EU? Yes or No?
My report was produced by people with a combined 15 years time at the WTO, what is your experience at the WTO and Sir Nick Clegg's?
- A Marxist would be leading the Labour Party and feted by the business community for his speech on European issues?
- Donald Trump would be US President on the back of seeming interfence from a hostile power?
- Tyndall and TSE would be arguing bitterly about the Turkish customs union?0 -
I didn't know about the Quebec GMO example. It shows the danger of the ISDS provision that the US will insist on in any US/UK FTA.rcs1000 said:
The issue with chlorinated chicken is the same issue that exists with pretty much all attempts to remove NTBs.John_M said:
I'm still waiting for someone to explain to me how we're going to be forced to buy this radioactive chicken (which I've eaten in the US many times, lovely). This vision we peddle of our sheep-like consumers belies my personal experience.Benpointer said:
Even that, disasterous though it would be, wouldn't achive a frictionless IRE/NI border because Ireland couldn't allow unrestricted imports from NI that might include, for example, substandard electricals from China and/or chlorinated chicken from the US (which those countries would happily dump on us once we declare free trade with the whole world.)rkrkrk said:
Unilaterally declaring free trade with the whole world a la Patrick Minford presumably would.Benpointer said:Is there anything, other than a Customs Union, that will allow both frictionless trade between Ireland and NI, and between NI and Great Britain?
But would probably be fairly disastrous for our industry in other ways...
Most people I know are incredibly picky about food, particularly meat; food miles is still a thing out here in the sticks.
Let's say we allow US chicken to be sold in the US (which I am 100% in favour of). British farmers will, correctly, complain that they are required to produce their food more expensively (higher standards of animal welfare) than US peers.
Do we:
- lower UK standards so they meet the lowest level of our competitors, to protect the British farming industry?
- allow the British farming industry to be undercut by people who produce to lower standards?
There's a very real example of this. The Quebec Provincial Government passed a law requiring that food that contained GMOs be labelled as such. Monsanto took Quebec to an ISDS tribunal, arguing that this requirement to label constituted a Non Tariff Barrier, and the ISDS sided with Monsanto, and resulting in the law being withdrawn.
If UK consumers want to know whether their chickens are from the US and reared in such filthy conditions that they need to be sterilised in Domestos they may not be able too. Tyson* could insist via ISDS that Sainsburys do not label any food "made in the US" on the grounds that it might damage their profits.
* Tyson Foods
0 -
The 1952 are the people who would never vote any other way, or who met the candidate and liked him and thought they'd vote for him, or who are pleased the local Lib Dem councillor cleared up the dog mess outside their house. I don't think that more than a penny packet will be tactical voters.Barnesian said:
Take Calder Valley. Tory majority 609. LibDem vote 1952. No doubt the LD vote has already been squeezed but many of those 1952 LD voters were not to be squeezed because of Labour's Brexit policy. That will have changed.Sean_F said:
The 20 most marginal Conservative seats (with Labour second) already have the Lib Dems on an average 3.5% vote share. They've already been squeezed till the pips squeak.Barnesian said:If there is a general election in the near term then tactical voting will be even more prevalent than usual.
My reasoning is that there is now a reason for LibDems to tactically vote for Labour in Tory/Labour marginals. In 2017 there was little difference between the Tory and Labour manifesto regarding Brexit so little incentive for LibDems to loan Labour their votes. Now there is.
I have analysed the Tory/Labour marginals in 2017, assumed 50% of LibDems will vote tactically for Labour and nothing else changes. Labour will gain 13 Tory marginals. (LibDems gain 5 Tory marginals if it is reciprocated). NB 50% is a reasonable target in a squeeze campaign.
Factoring in the additional swing of 4% Tory to Labour since the GE gives Labour an extra 26 seats making 39 in total, reducing the Tory majority by 78.
The 13 marginals are Broxtowe (perhaps an exception), Calder Valley, Chipping Barnet, Finchley, Hastings, Thurrock, Pudsey, Putney, Truro, Watford, Presele, S'Hpton Itchen, Southport.0 -
Alistair Campbell.rcs1000 said:
Who do you see playing the Herod role?Sean_F said:
He was right, but at a time when the public were not ready to appreciate it. A kind of John the Baptist figure.williamglenn said:
He allowed Hannan to go from ERG researcher to MEP and built most of his pitch against Blair around opposition to the EU and the Euro. The Brexit rot set in under his leadership.Richard_Nabavi said:
He argued strongly for Remain.Gardenwalker said:
I note that at the tail of that article, Hague implies that we may be heading toward an “abyss”.Scott_P said:
Another sceptic who got mugged by reality.0 -
If it's just looking at tariff revenue versus total imports doesn't the weighting take care of itself?rcs1000 said:
I don't think that's a weighted average number, but a simple average.williamglenn said:
120 years ago our trade with the rest of the world was less free than it is now if you look at average tariffs on total imports.rcs1000 said:
I think the argument against Redwood here is that - if you look back to the time when the UK last had genuinely free trade with the rest of the world - then the average Brit got a greater proportion of their calories from overseas than now.Richard_Tyndall said:
I see no where in that quite where Redwood is advocating putting up barriers or adopting protectionist policies. Removing quotas and buying local rather than importing stuff we already produce here is not protectionism. It is common sense.williamglenn said:
Some of the advocates of unilateral free trade simultaneously want to adopt protectionist policies...David_Evershed said:
Unilaterally declaring free trade with the whole world does not allow UK goods into Ireland without tariffs.rkrkrk said:
Unilaterally declaring free trade with the whole world a la Patrick Minford presumably would.Benpointer said:Is there anything, other than a Customs Union, that will allow both frictionless trade between Ireland and NI, and between NI and Great Britain?
But would probably be fairly disastrous for our industry in other ways...
https://twitter.com/johnredwood/status/967353876067373056
And that was 120 years ago, when the costs of transportation were an order of magnitude higher than now.0 -
There are far more than two sides in this negotiation.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. rkrkrk, there are two sides in this negotiation. Given Corbyn's past and more recent utterances, a charitable man might say it's unclear which side of the table he's sat on.
Mr. 1000, Herod comes across as a very interesting figure in Josephus' The Jewish War. Heroic in his youth, generally a good king, but too fond of overmighty towers funded by punitive taxation.
Corbyn’s job is to oppose the govt and get the best Brexit he can, if he gets the chance.
Judging by what is reported f the parliamentary arithmetic, and the govts own economic analysis - he’s doing better than May at the moment.0 -
Do they? Why would they say that, and which ones actually, specifically, have? More generally, either you personally believe that anyone in the world, by virtue of being a human being, can come to this country and live and work here, for ever, or you do not believe that, in which case you believe in immigration controls, in which case you believe in dividing foreigners into those who can come here, and those who cannot. Therefore you believe in DISCRIMINATING AGAINST FOREIGNERS, YOU XENOPHOBE.TOPPING said:
Nick Herbert was on such a journey, or had completed it, and led the Remain Cons group, having done the same for Business for Sterling earlier.Richard_Nabavi said:
Why is it a 'journey'? It's perfectly sensible to argue against membership of the Euro and for remaining in the EU (especially with Dave's deal). I know this, because it was exactly my position.tpfkar said:
I think that's harsh - he was an effective advocate for Remain in the campaign. With his track record of campaigning against the Euro "24 hours to save the pound" his journey on the issue is quite a story, he could have been used more effectively by Remain in my view.Gardenwalker said:
I note that at the tail of that article, Hague implies that we may be heading toward an “abyss”.Scott_P said:
Another sceptic who got mugged by reality.
The ones being mugged by reality are those attacking Treasury forecasts because they don't like what they say, and those pretending there are no costs to Brexit in all scenarios.
I agree he could have been used in the campaign more effectively.
But he had absolutely no response, on DP, to Kate Hoey asking him how, if we remained in the EU, the UK was going to restrict immigration. That for me was a defining moment.
And all the PB Leavers tell us it is nothing to do with foreigners.
Infantile strawmanning is really irritating, isnt it?.0 -
Interesting to hear Jezza say that he thinks the EU's bluffing over their position on a customs union.0
-
Corbyn's only job is to cause as much trouble for the government as he can. That's what the Opposition leader is there for.rkrkrk said:
There are far more than two sides in this negotiation.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. rkrkrk, there are two sides in this negotiation. Given Corbyn's past and more recent utterances, a charitable man might say it's unclear which side of the table he's sat on.
Mr. 1000, Herod comes across as a very interesting figure in Josephus' The Jewish War. Heroic in his youth, generally a good king, but too fond of overmighty towers funded by punitive taxation.
Corbyn’s job is to oppose the govt and get the best Brexit he can, if he gets the chance.
Judging by what is reported f the parliamentary arithmetic, and the govts own economic analysis - he’s doing better than May at the moment.0 -
I now know that Jeremy Corbyn is stupid as well as incompetent.
Listening to the speech he read out this morning, he said that Labour would support the UK being in a customs union, PROVIDING the EU allowed Britain an independent say in drawing up trade deals. When asked what would happen if the EU said NO -as it does to all countries in such customs unions -he replied that the UK would negotiate.
And what would happen if the EU still said NO Jeremy-as it does to all other countries in such customs unions.
No answer.
Stop treating us like the fools that you and your supporters are Jeremy.0 -
Given UKIP got 1466 votes in Calder Valley in June 2017, Tory+UKIP is frequently bigger than Labour+LD in many of those marginalsBarnesian said:
Take Calder Valley. Tory majority 609. LibDem vote 1952. No doubt the LD vote has already been squeezed but many of those 1952 LD voters were not to be squeezed because of Labour's Brexit policy. That will have changed.Sean_F said:
The 20 most marginal Conservative seats (with Labour second) already have the Lib Dems on an average 3.5% vote share. They've already been squeezed till the pips squeak.Barnesian said:If there is a general election in the near term then tactical voting will be even more prevalent than usual.
My reasoning is that there is now a reason for LibDems to tactically vote for Labour in Tory/Labour marginals. In 2017 there was little difference between the Tory and Labour manifesto regarding Brexit so little incentive for LibDems to loan Labour their votes. Now there is.
I have analysed the Tory/Labour marginals in 2017, assumed 50% of LibDems will vote tactically for Labour and nothing else changes. Labour will gain 13 Tory marginals. (LibDems gain 5 Tory marginals if it is reciprocated). NB 50% is a reasonable target in a squeeze campaign.
Factoring in the additional swing of 4% Tory to Labour since the GE gives Labour an extra 26 seats making 39 in total, reducing the Tory majority by 78.
The 13 marginals are Broxtowe (perhaps an exception), Calder Valley, Chipping Barnet, Finchley, Hastings, Thurrock, Pudsey, Putney, Truro, Watford, Presele, S'Hpton Itchen, Southport.0 -
He's not negotiating though. He's angling for ways to bring a no confidence vote sooner.stevef said:I now know that Jeremy Corbyn is stupid as well as incompetent.
Listening to the speech he read out this morning, he said that Labour would support the UK being in a customs union, PROVIDING the EU allowed Britain an independent say in drawing up trade deals. When asked what would happen if the EU said NO -as it does to all countries in such customs unions -he replied that the UK would negotiate.
And what would happen if the EU still said NO Jeremy-as it does to all other countries in such customs unions.
No answer.
Stop treating us like the fools that you and your supporters are Jeremy.0 -
So Corbyn already has about 50% more seats than the Tories in May to defendPulpstar said:I make the starting points for the local elections:
Con 1321
Lab 2103
LD 427
Other 308
That is all flavours of councillors (London, Unitary, Metropolitan & District)
{Obviously no county this year}0 -
-
Ah so he was lying to the British people for party political advantage in parliament.rottenborough said:
He's not negotiating though. He's angling for ways to bring a no confidence vote sooner.stevef said:I now know that Jeremy Corbyn is stupid as well as incompetent.
Listening to the speech he read out this morning, he said that Labour would support the UK being in a customs union, PROVIDING the EU allowed Britain an independent say in drawing up trade deals. When asked what would happen if the EU said NO -as it does to all countries in such customs unions -he replied that the UK would negotiate.
And what would happen if the EU still said NO Jeremy-as it does to all other countries in such customs unions.
No answer.
Stop treating us like the fools that you and your supporters are Jeremy.0 -
Well well. Who'd a thunk it?rottenborough said:0 -
I detest the ****, and I remain disappointed in Labour's continued hostility towards EU membership, but compared to the government position it is a step in the right direction.Recidivist said:I have just been trawling through the comments on Twitter about Corbyn's speech. I was impressed by the speech itself, but the support it is getting is quite surprising. The phobes are as negative as ever, but the remainers seem surprisingly happy. Quite a few very pro tweets that don't look like they come from partisans.
Whatever else we have learned, Corbyn shouldn't be underestimated.0 -
If you want to spend two minutes to find out what a customs union with the EU does for Turkey, as well its limitations, take a peek at this video.
https://twitter.com/mpc_1968/status/9667497889507491840 -
The unions v Momentum.Richard_Nabavi said:
Popcorn time.
0 -
The unions are already squabbling amongst themselves, GMB vs Unite. Meanwhile the levers of power within the party continue to fall to the infiltrators. They are going to be bloody difficult to get rid of if the party does come to its senses.SouthamObserver said:
The unions v Momentum.Richard_Nabavi said:
Popcorn time.0 -
Unprecedented in the long annals of British democracy.stevef said:
Ah so he was lying to the British people for party political advantage in parliament.rottenborough said:
He's not negotiating though. He's angling for ways to bring a no confidence vote sooner.stevef said:I now know that Jeremy Corbyn is stupid as well as incompetent.
Listening to the speech he read out this morning, he said that Labour would support the UK being in a customs union, PROVIDING the EU allowed Britain an independent say in drawing up trade deals. When asked what would happen if the EU said NO -as it does to all countries in such customs unions -he replied that the UK would negotiate.
And what would happen if the EU still said NO Jeremy-as it does to all other countries in such customs unions.
No answer.
Stop treating us like the fools that you and your supporters are Jeremy.0 -
......And a big black cloud hangs over Jeremy if my latest chance encounter means anything.
I bumped into a girl who I last met a year ago and who looks like an escapee from Greenham Common.
'Hallo' I said quietly admiring her black Che Guevara beret. 'You wouldn't believe it but I'm now with you. I've had a Damascene conversion and i've joined Jeremy's fan club!
'What? He's worse than fuc*ing Blair! she said
'What's happened?' I asked.
'You couldn't put a fag paper between him and UKIP.'
A list of woes followed including that he'd lost Momentum 'for good this time. We're sick of being taken for granted'....... 'If he sat on any more fences he'd bifurcate himself......'
At that point I said my goodbyes and headed for a dictionary....0 -
The far left always, absolutely always, ends up eating itself ...
https://twitter.com/lukeakehurst/status/9681912281594511360 -
Like you I don't like Corbyn. Today Corbyn had a good day. I doubt it will last but credit where it is due, today he moved the debate forward.stevef said:
Ah so he was lying to the British people for party political advantage in parliament.rottenborough said:
He's not negotiating though. He's angling for ways to bring a no confidence vote sooner.stevef said:I now know that Jeremy Corbyn is stupid as well as incompetent.
Listening to the speech he read out this morning, he said that Labour would support the UK being in a customs union, PROVIDING the EU allowed Britain an independent say in drawing up trade deals. When asked what would happen if the EU said NO -as it does to all countries in such customs unions -he replied that the UK would negotiate.
And what would happen if the EU still said NO Jeremy-as it does to all other countries in such customs unions.
No answer.
Stop treating us like the fools that you and your supporters are Jeremy.0 -
Clearly she does not speak for Momentum, Momentum have always been lukewarm about the EU at bestRoger said:......And a big black cloud hangs over Jeremy if my latest chance encounter means anything.
I bumped into a girl who I last met a year ago and who looks like an escapee from Greenham Common.
'Hallo' I said quietly admiring her black Che Guevara beret. 'You wouldn't believe it but I'm now with you. I've had a Damascene conversion and i've joined Jeremy's fan club!
'What? He's worse than fuc*ing Blair! she said
'What's happened?' I asked.
'You couldn't put a fag paper between him and UKIP.'
A list of woes followed including that he'd lost Momentum 'for good this time. We're sick of being taken for granted'....... 'If he sat on any more fences he'd bifurcate himself......'
At that point I said my goodbyes and headed for a dictionary....0 -
McCluskey is finding he cannot control the beast he helped to create. Lansman represent a decisive move away from union power towards individual members. This is a big moment in Labour history.Richard_Nabavi said:
The unions are already squabbling amongst themselves, GMB vs Unite. Meanwhile the levers of power within the party continue to fall to the infiltrators. They are going to be bloody difficult to get rid of if the party does come to its senses.SouthamObserver said:
The unions v Momentum.Richard_Nabavi said:
Popcorn time.
0 -
You’re not at all irritating, perhaps sadly for you.Ishmael_Z said:
Do they? Why would they say that, and which ones actually, specifically, have? More generally, either you personally believe that anyone in the world, by virtue of being a human being, can come to this country and live and work here, for ever, or you do not believe that, in which case you believe in immigration controls, in which case you believe in dividing foreigners into those who can come here, and those who cannot. Therefore you believe in DISCRIMINATING AGAINST FOREIGNERS, YOU XENOPHOBE.TOPPING said:
Nick Herbert was on such a journey, or had completed it, and led the Remain Cons group, having done the same for Business for Sterling earlier.Richard_Nabavi said:
Why is it a 'journey'? It's perfectly sensible to argue against membership of the Euro and for remaining in the EU (especially with Dave's deal). I know this, because it was exactly my position.tpfkar said:
I think that's harsh - he was an effective advocate for Remain in the campaign. With his track record of campaigning against the Euro "24 hours to save the pound" his journey on the issue is quite a story, he could have been used more effectively by Remain in my view.Gardenwalker said:
I note that at the tail of that article, Hague implies that we may be heading toward an “abyss”.Scott_P said:
Another sceptic who got mugged by reality.
The ones being mugged by reality are those attacking Treasury forecasts because they don't like what they say, and those pretending there are no costs to Brexit in all scenarios.
I agree he could have been used in the campaign more effectively.
But he had absolutely no response, on DP, to Kate Hoey asking him how, if we remained in the EU, the UK was going to restrict immigration. That for me was a defining moment.
And all the PB Leavers tell us it is nothing to do with foreigners.
Infantile strawmanning is really irritating, isnt it?.0 -
Ummm:stevef said:I now know that Jeremy Corbyn is stupid as well as incompetent.
Listening to the speech he read out this morning, he said that Labour would support the UK being in a customs union, PROVIDING the EU allowed Britain an independent say in drawing up trade deals. When asked what would happen if the EU said NO -as it does to all countries in such customs unions -he replied that the UK would negotiate.
And what would happen if the EU still said NO Jeremy-as it does to all other countries in such customs unions.
No answer.
Stop treating us like the fools that you and your supporters are Jeremy.
Turkey is in *a* customs union with the EU, and his its own trade deals.
See: https://www.export.gov/article?id=Turkey-Trade-Agreements0 -
oh good, so you'll be happy to answer the question, then. Who ever said "it is nothing to do with foreigners"?TOPPING said:
You’re not at all irritating, perhaps sadly for you.Ishmael_Z said:
Do they? Why would they say that, and which ones actually, specifically, have? More generally, either you personally believe that anyone in the world, by virtue of being a human being, can come to this country and live and work here, for ever, or you do not believe that, in which case you believe in immigration controls, in which case you believe in dividing foreigners into those who can come here, and those who cannot. Therefore you believe in DISCRIMINATING AGAINST FOREIGNERS, YOU XENOPHOBE.TOPPING said:
Nick Herbert was on such a journey, or had completed it, and led the Remain Cons group, having done the same for Business for Sterling earlier.Richard_Nabavi said:
Why is it a 'journey'? It's perfectly sensible to argue against membership of the Euro and for remaining in the EU (especially with Dave's deal). I know this, because it was exactly my position.tpfkar said:
I think that's harsh - he was an effective advocate for Remain in the campaign. With his track record of campaigning against the Euro "24 hours to save the pound" his journey on the issue is quite a story, he could have been used more effectively by Remain in my view.Gardenwalker said:
I note that at the tail of that article, Hague implies that we may be heading toward an “abyss”.Scott_P said:
Another sceptic who got mugged by reality.
The ones being mugged by reality are those attacking Treasury forecasts because they don't like what they say, and those pretending there are no costs to Brexit in all scenarios.
I agree he could have been used in the campaign more effectively.
But he had absolutely no response, on DP, to Kate Hoey asking him how, if we remained in the EU, the UK was going to restrict immigration. That for me was a defining moment.
And all the PB Leavers tell us it is nothing to do with foreigners.
Infantile strawmanning is really irritating, isnt it?.0 -
'Fire and Fury' author Michael Wolff says there are only 3 Britons Team Trump rates - Nigel Farage, Boris Johnson and Tony Blair
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/fire-and-fury-author-michael-wolff-trump-has-no-f-idea-a3775991.html0 -
Yes.HYUFD said:
So Corbyn already has about 50% more seats than the Tories in May to defendPulpstar said:I make the starting points for the local elections:
Con 1321
Lab 2103
LD 427
Other 308
That is all flavours of councillors (London, Unitary, Metropolitan & District)
{Obviously no county this year}
However, it is worth remembering that this year the whole of London votes (32 Boroughs multiplied by a little more than 50 councillors on average, gives 1,700 odd in London.
Plus there are the whole of Birmingham (101), Leeds (99), Manchester (96) and Newcastle-upon-Tyne (78).
And then there are a third of 30 more Metropolitan Boroughs, including Barnsley, Bolton, Bradford, Coventry, Gateshead, Liverpool, Rochdale, North Tyneside, St Helens, Salford, Sheffield, Sunderland and Wigan.
Of course, some of these councils are already utterly dominated by Labour. (Manchester, for instance, has 95 Labour councillors, and one LibDem).0 -
The claim that 'x is playing politics' is the final accusation of desperation from the out-manoeuvred. They're politicians; the clue is in the name.DecrepitJohnL said:
Unprecedented in the long annals of British democracy.stevef said:
Ah so he was lying to the British people for party political advantage in parliament.rottenborough said:
He's not negotiating though. He's angling for ways to bring a no confidence vote sooner.stevef said:I now know that Jeremy Corbyn is stupid as well as incompetent.
Listening to the speech he read out this morning, he said that Labour would support the UK being in a customs union, PROVIDING the EU allowed Britain an independent say in drawing up trade deals. When asked what would happen if the EU said NO -as it does to all countries in such customs unions -he replied that the UK would negotiate.
And what would happen if the EU still said NO Jeremy-as it does to all other countries in such customs unions.
No answer.
Stop treating us like the fools that you and your supporters are Jeremy.
0 -
The number of these that will need active defence this year is a small minority.rcs1000 said:
Yes.HYUFD said:
So Corbyn already has about 50% more seats than the Tories in May to defendPulpstar said:I make the starting points for the local elections:
Con 1321
Lab 2103
LD 427
Other 308
That is all flavours of councillors (London, Unitary, Metropolitan & District)
{Obviously no county this year}
However, it is worth remembering that this year the whole of London votes (32 Boroughs multiplied by a little more than 50 councillors on average, gives 1,700 odd in London.
Plus there are the whole of Birmingham (101), Leeds (99), Manchester (96) and Newcastle-upon-Tyne (78).
And then there are a third of 30 more Metropolitan Boroughs, including Barnsley, Bolton, Bradford, Coventry, Gateshead, Liverpool, Rochdale, North Tyneside, St Helens, Salford, Sheffield, Sunderland and Wigan.
Of course, some of these councils are already utterly dominated by Labour. (Manchester, for instance, has 95 Labour councillors, and one LibDem).0
