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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » There’s greater than a 1.25% chance that Emily Thornberry will

One of the things about running a site about political betting and being a punter myself is that I like to spend a few minutes each day casting my eye over the markets to see if anything interesting is happening.
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(And first - trained in speed by the Czech Secret Service, y'know.)
"Gerry Adams backs Corbyn for next PM"
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-42936613
The Tories can have a new leader in post inside a week if necessary. There will be time.
Did a bit of canvassing with her at GE2017
Didnt manage to high five her like Jezza though
Of course he does. It's the IRA's best chance of getting a united Ireland with the support of the British government. After all, a united Ireland solves the post-Brexit border issue beautifully. The customs border will then literally be in the sea.
The small matter of consent and having a hostile Protestant community are hardly likely to bother the likes of Adams or, indeed, Corbyn.
A desperate party replaced a failing leader with under 3 months to go. And it worked.
The ‘Can’t do Anything because it is 3 years Away from an Election’ posters need to get real.
At what point can you declare Brexit done? Not 29 March 2019 - we're only starting a 2 year transition then. So maybe after March 2021 - just a year off the next GE, to late to change leader without making it look like a panic.
He might want to reflect on the unfortunate fate of Charles Dilke. Dilke brought a libel action - when innocent - lost, and his career was irretrievably ruined.
This also severely damaged his party, which won just one more election in its own strength afterwards as the man he should have replaced (Gladstone) was able to hang on far too long (about 25 years too long, indeed, although Jenkins called it ten).
And it's difficult to see a pathway whereby Corbyn would emerge with anything other than copious amounts of mud over him even if he technically won.
U.K. Has a Secret Plan to Hold Brexit Cash If EU Refuses to Trade - Bloomberg https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-02-19/u-k-has-secret-plan-to-hold-brexit-cash-if-eu-refuses-to-trade
Back to No Deal is better than a Bad Deal.
I think given the general expectation she will retire around 2019/20 people would buy that.
Nope
Rodger Kibble
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@theresa_may do you endorse this comparison of the Leader of Her Majesty's Opposition to a treasonous agent of a hostile foreign power?Rodger Kibble added,
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“Jeremy has been interested in Foreign Policy issues his entire political career “ - Labour MP Louis Haigh , BBC Daily Politics - yup so was Kim Philby
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Replying to @rodgerkibble @theresa_may
Nope
But it was worth looking at your tweets just to see the "bacterium on a diatom on an amphipod on a frog" retweet. Amazing, thanks!
If the next choice is a good one i.e. not a JRM or some other retread I doubt if the voters will care that Tory MPs are two-faced so and so's.
After all, all those MPs - all 170 of them - who declared that they had no confidence in Corbyn cheered him to the rafters after the GE. I'm sure Tory MPs can match them for hypocrisy.
Can I please again urge you to be careful. Republishing tweets you are criticising for being libellous is not perhaps the smartest idea.
Indeed. Lawyers would have a field day cross-examining Corbyn. They would not let him get away with the sort of inexactitudes the way that pudding Marr does.
I don't believe that Corbyn sold any secrets because I highly doubt he'd have any. Why would anyone in the British government have trusted him with any secrets in the first place? It's not as if his views weren't out in the open. You'd have to have been one hell of an idiot to entrust the sorts of secrets the Warsaw Pact would have been interested in to people like Corbyn.
Tomorrows papers and media reporting will be interesting
Oh and Ben Bradley is a foolish man who ought to have learned his lesson from his blog posts. But apparently hasn't.
However on your 'idiots' remark I would remind you the government of the time included Paul Channon and Kenneth Baker.
https://twitter.com/LauraPidcockMP/status/965678427142545408
But as you say, he won't have had access to any secrets, so why the Czechs would have targetted him (if they did) is rather baffling.
Bradley, Dent Coad, O'Mara, Pidcock - all of these give the impression they would be out of their depth on a parish council.
As @SeanT I do despair of our political leadership.
Edit - and I wrote that post before seeing Laura Pidcock had decided to republish an alleged libel about her own leader!
"For various reasons I have been listening to radio news programmes more than normal in the last few days. I can sum up what I have learnt, as follows:-
1. The Tories are an absolute fucking shambles. An absolute shower. Of shits, incompetents and Brexit-obsessed loons
2. Labour are an absolute fucking shambles: of extreme left ex-Militants with interesting views about some minorities, cowed MPs and a leadership largely silent on key issues.
3. The Lib Dems may well also be an absolute fucking shambles but since no-one has heard or seen them for months it is impossible to tell.
4. UKIP would also be an absolute shambles but is now in reality one middle-aged man fucking for Britain, or something.
5. Brexit is an absolute FUBAR and Britain is playing the role of the first Mrs Rochester in the attic, as far as the rest of Europe is concerned"
Fabulous, as you say.
Cant see whats wrong with that.
Some Posters on here like Sean T more of an issue IMO (Moderators?)
It is far more likely that the Czechs - if they did target him - would have been more interested in having a Labour MP speak up against things like the missiles on Greenham Common and in favour of "peace and disarmament". Seeking to undermine public support for the policies of Reagan and Thatcher in relation to arms and their approach to Russia was much more likely.
Mind you, watching Pidcock libel her own leader through sheer gormlessness is quite funny.
FE Smith they ain't.
Basically useful idiots can do plenty of damage without disclosing anything classified.
It would have made the result of 2016 a 10R-8D split as opposed to the 13R-5D that happened.
From the article, it seems the Czechs were more interested in his anti-apartheid activities.
What worries me is the issue of naming conventions. How could anyone over the age of 6 think COB was an impenetrable disguise for Corbyn?
Hard to believe it's true.
Almost like it's not true.
And as for COB... it's almost as if the whole thing is a spoof!
If Emily Thornberry became Labour leader, I would support the Labour Party again and we would have a decent mainstream Labour leadership once more.
Thornberry is no Corbynista. She's been loyal to the dreadful Corbyn but she isnt from the hard left. For the first time since John Smith died in 1994 we would have a Labour leader on the mainstream, free from the factions of Blairite right and Corbynite hard Marxist left.
Be in no doubt however, Thornberry as leader would mean the vile Mr McDonnell and the hopeless Diane Abbott going too. And eventually she would have to confront and cleanse the party of the poison that is Momentum.
Alas, I doubt if Thornberry will take over soon. Corbyn loves the Stalinist adulation, the youth movements, the songs to the Leader, the Messianic adulation. He is a vain posturing political pygmy but one I suspect who will go on dragging his party down to destruction.
Seriously?
https://twitter.com/solange_lebourg/status/964907932990300160
It's not even necessarily about pushing a particular agenda, as simply sowing doubt and confusion is a desirable outcome for those who stir up trouble.