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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » My political pollster of the year:Lord Ashcroft
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » My political pollster of the year:Lord Ashcroft
We are at that time of the year when we look back at what’s happened in the past twelve months and highlight and reflect. PB will be no different. Over the next few days there’ll be a number of posts with “……of the Year” in the heading.
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New Chrimbo quiz question coming up ....
UK house prices, otoh, came in ahead of expectations, up 5.5% YoY in November, from 3.8% in October.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=tVLGDGvOsZA
If you had a ~£500k mortgage balance and you were remortgaging now, house value about £1.1k, would you go for
1/ a 2 year fix at 1.88%
2/ a 5 year fix at 2.69%
3/ a 10 year fix at 3.44%?
Would you feel safe taking the 1.88 on the basis you'd still get a cheap deal in 2 years' time?
Except when he strays across the border.
Ashcroft Headline: Most Scots back nuclear deterrent.
Actual poll: Question – In principle, do you support or oppose the United Kingdom having nuclear weapons?
37 per cent of respondents said they supported
48 per cent said they opposed
15 per cent said they didn’t know
His recent independence poll (cobbled together from 3 different polls taken over 6 months) was also the most useless contribution to the debate until Carmichael got on to his hind legs.
The only issue I'd take with the tweet is that it's time independent. It's true that "it's what's happening in the marginal seats that matters", however, it's what's happening in *next election's* marginal seats that matters, which may or may not be the same as those that were marginal last time. There's probably been more churn in voting intention this parliament between parties outside the big two than at any since the 1980s. That could play havoc with working out which seats are the marginals next time (as per the last thread).
Off-topic: I see that Germany has finally managed to agree a government, three months after the election. Yippee, this now means at last I can collect on my Grand Coalition bets! Thanks to Nick Palmer for that - he posted some polling figures not long before the election which persuaded me to jump in at over 2/1.
Bobajob
the East Coast franchise did not perform better when Nationalised. In the initial franchise period the service was massively better than when it had been nationalised and the service has definitely dropped since it went back under Government control.
Lab 1.81-1.82
Con 2.26-2.3
So @AveryLP leads the charge for the first prize of an online copy of the 1997 Natural Law Party guide to yogic flying.
Tuesday's Question :
Who are these three MP's and what links them all :
a. Was she high on her favourite number 390 "This Morning" ?
b. Viewing further todgers - 72% was his favourite number but his number was up after "Operation Sea Lion" ?
c. Was he purring over Abba's "Ring Ring" a 2004 cyclical hit or not ?
On these Survation polls, is it worrying to Ukip supporters on here that the party has not come out on top in any of them?
(But I'm no expert, nor a financial adviser, do not rely on this, etc.)
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/12/12/eu-deutschebahn-idUSL6N0JR44L20131212
;-)
Supporters of government cuts now outnumber opponents for the first time in three years - http://y-g.co/18wpRqF
the tide is turning...
390 being NickP's unlucky number.
Thanks. What one has to intuit of course is what rates you'd be paying over 10 years under all three cases, picking the cheapest.
It may be possible to take the 1.88 now and still get the 3.44ish in 2 years' time, for instance, per Nick P's view, in which case you gain 2 years' worth of the difference; about £12k. Quite nice.
One factor I should have mentioned is that I took the present mortgage out 2 years ago for 16 years. The next will be for 14 years. A possible risk of taking say the 5-year deal is that after it ends in 2019 I'll then be looking for a 9-year mortgage term. Do those even exist?
I agree with you that offensive remarks should be permitted, but it's baffling that a man making bad jokes about Nelson Mandela can be arrested whereas the bearded cretin is untroubled by the police.
Good job he never called one of them a pleb.
72% may have been his majority in Harrow at the 1918 election ??
Sea Lion connection is that it was rumoured he was high up on Hitler's list of potential candidates for Reichskommisar in the event of a successful invasion.
I would go further. The Rehabilitation [ Rehabilitator? ] of the Year, more like.
You can't just go around claiming people are rapists or thieves without evidence, but it's ok to ruin someones life by calling them a racist.
Looking at Gilt yields from http://www.fixedincomeinvestor.co.uk/x/bondtable.html?groupid=3 2 yrs is at 0.452, 5 yrs at 1.8, 10 yrs 2.8 (With a smidgen of interpolation)
The 'Gaps' are 1.45, 0.89, 0.64 between the UK gilt yield and the interest rates. So hmm I'd say the 10 year deal looks the best of that lot.
Not financial advice etc etc. IANYA etc etc.
MP b is not Mosely.
@SandraM. Sorry not Galloway.
I woudn't normally suggest fixing for less than 3-years these days & assuming you don't mind being tied in for that period. 2 years goes in no time, remortgage fees are often high especially on a property of that value, and crucialy what if the world has changed, 4% more on a debt that size is a massive impact on someone's budget potentially and there's a lot of 'value' in certainty even if in hindsight you'd have been better off playing the interest rate game.
The best I see are:
1. A 2-yr fix at 1.64%
2. A 3-yr fix at 2.19%
4. A 5-yr fix at 2.69% is the best I can see with a few lenders.
5. A 10-yr fix - the best my system shows is 3.84%? Who is the 3.44% with?
When did you last hear anyone say "It's a free country, I'll say what I like," or even "I'm entitled to my opinion"?
Assuming its repayment then the debt will be a lot smaller by then too.
In the US the left are dying to get rid of Fox News and it is only a matter of time before they succeed.
Offset mortgages might appeal too if you have emergency funds, cash lying around which you don't want to tie up as equity in the property?
I would have thought that for self-assessed tax payers, an offset mortgage would always be worthwhile due to the need to hold onto lots of cash over the course of the year?
Can't work out the 72% though.
Miss Sulphate (er, it is Miss?), "I think the whole idea that you can be banged up for saying something offensive completely mental." - I entirely agree. We must maximise freedom of speech.
Not everything is legitimate for public discourse (those in 2011 trying to stir up more riots were rightly prosecuted, and those calling for lashings for shopkeepers deserve punishment) but it seems barking mad that a man using the term 'Pikey' in a tweet might be referred to the police.
The one policy he does bang on about is cutting back on foreign aid - which I agree with.
*innocent face*
Let's add a further clue to each remaining MP
b. Sadly he didn't manage 72% four times running in 1953.
c. He'd certainly like to lose his Ex status.
Hope that helps maybe?
I'm not even convinced that those calling for violence should be prosecuted to be honest, but agree that it is different to just bog standard "racist" speech.
twitter.com/Tim_Aker/status/412863840209346560
twitter.com/UKIP/status/412866113148444672/photo/1
2. A bit, but these are polls, not election results. A week before the May 2013 elections Survation gave UKIP 16% support.
He was an MP from 1929-1953 when he died. He was on Hitlers infamous list of those to be "detained" after Operation Sea Lion. Seymour Cocks achieved 72% of the vote in the 1945, 50 and 51 general elections.
Just c left - probably the easiest.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-25413389
Of course, there have been over a thousand complaints about the deranged amount of coverage Mandela's death/funeral/memorial/friends/relatives/people who quite liked him have got. But as that's not a single moment it doesn't make the list.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/10521393/Alex-Salmond-under-pressure-to-account-for-mystery-Ryder-Cup-spending.html
£54k unaccounted for in trip costing £500k.
Laws against "offensive" speech are ridiculous but if they exist should be enforced equally against all.
However, I'd have thought that Choudhary should be prosecuted in this case for incitement to violence. He is clearly threatening people carrying on a lawful activity with violence if they don't do something he wants. I really can see no good reason why the police aren't investigating.
Nick Palmer is MP c
PB's famous pussy (purring)lover Nick Palmers 2004 private bill on cycle(ical) bells (ring ring) was adopted and passed.
And Broxtowe is the constituency they all served.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scotland/10423481/Salmond-spends-919-on-limousines-every-London-trip.html
And hopes to emulate Seymour Cock's 72% of the vote come may 2015 !!
http://www.thejournal.co.uk/news/north-east-news/good-year-east-coast-mainline-4404292
"Turnover for the year amounted to £665.8m, an increase of £20m, leaving a profit before tax and service payments to the Department for Transport of £195.7m, an increase of £13m.
"Passenger journeys at East Coast, which runs trains from London to the North East, Yorkshire and Scotland, increased by 2.1%, while customer satisfaction rose by 2%, and the latest punctuality figures were its best since records began in 1999."
I thought the Ashcroft polls avoiding prompting for any party.
Looking at the big picture, passenger numbers have grown massively since privatisation after having been falling for years beforehand.
Richard's contention was specifically about East Coast since it was renationalised. His contention was provably wrong.
Which is rather a problem for your argument.
You also have to be careful about the figures. Several different things have to be factored in: for instance, one-off infrastructure costs to expand the network such as the WCML upgrade or Crossrail, and the day-to-day running and maintenance costs.
When you discuss EC's headline return to taxpayers, I'm surprised you do not acknowledge the role the Open Access operators have on that route, or the fact that South West Trains returned even more.
If the railways were renationalised, would you move National Rail's debt back onto the government's books?
[1] http://www.passengerfocus.org.uk/research/national-passenger-survey-introduction#
[2] http://www.directlyoperatedrailways.co.uk/PDF/DORReportAccounts2013.pdf
Good article – when you put it like that, it does appear some have more ‘free speech’ than others.
Now shared 1000 times. – you may make that 2K by tea time.
My argument about the railways is simple – they are always going to be loss making, they are quite simply a cost of running an developed economy. This is not a banana republic and therefore the railway cannot be allowed to fail.
Better to have a German or French system where they are properly state owned but have commercial arms, and concede retail operations to the private sector where contractors can compete on quality, in something more approaching a free market. As Pulpstar said recently, the current dog's breakfast is a joke – it takes the worst aspects of socialism and capitalism, and combines them.
I say again, as you are more expert than me, why not suggest a model? You have already said you are very open to (some form) of renationalisation, so why not fly a kite for the benefit of the thread?
3.44% is such a fabulous rate for long term money you should lock it in asap. It may not be the cheapest, but given the risk that interest rates could revert significantly higher over a 5 year view, I'd grab it with both hands.
Just make sure you have portability and ability to repay a proportion of capital at will and without penalty.
Depends on 'life' position though too, as portability is a v limited place to be as it's at the whim of that lender at that point in time and their criteria then.
I think wage inflation hit 2.2% in PB Hodges world.
Factory orders up and Christmas shopping down will of course please our Warwickshire and Lincolnshire malcontents, but Q4 GDP growth is very closely linked to an upturn in the purchase of such fripperies as Food & Non-Alcoholic Beverages, Bread, Meat, Sweets, Alcoholic Drinks & Tobacco, Beer, Wine and Spirits.
Some very pretty graphs and an explanation of the economic impact of Winterval can be found at http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/elmr/economic-review/december-2013/art-decemberer.html#tab-Christmas-in-the-average-household
Well worth a quick read.