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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » New poll highlights the danger for Corbyn if LAB is perceived as being pro-Brexit
The Stop Brexit pressure group Our Future Our Choice has published a YouGov poll it commissioned which suggests that LAB’s poll rating could drop from 39% to 30% if it goes into the next election backing or having backed Brexit.
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Neither am I, and it remains quite possible that Corbyn will continue to get away with his attempt to have no policy on Brexit other than of course we'd do it better...
And until the Invisible Democrats stop being invisible, and find and alternative to Great Uncle Vince, they are unlikely to benefit greatly.
They also need 'something' to happen; a by election triumph would be excellent, but it's unlikely; maybe a really good set of Local Election results, or it could be as small as a really good speech in Parliament.... not a 5 minute question, but something notable.
Plus a follow-up QT if that recovers its relevance.
Voters are very fickle at the moment (ask the Scots Tories and SNP) and I feel things could suddenly turn but not sure what/when it will happen and the mood shifts. Until then the JRM vs Anna Soubry match will continue to dominate (I reckon she might just jump somewhere - dont know where though......)
I’d rather it wasn’t ring fenced and then we could have a rational* discussion about the appropriate level of spending and the tax necessary to support it.
* I refused to be mugged by reality
https://en.m.wikiquote.org/wiki/Irving_Kristol
Personally I think it will be more like June 2017, with Corbyn concentrating on Austerity. He simply is not that bothered about Europe.
Forget politics: today is Falcon Heavy day!
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-42950957
P'haps. I'm expecting a delay - after all, it's only been seven or so years to wait ...
I seem to remember a party-to-this-parish who objectified his partners "huge clevage". Sometimes silence is the wisest option.
:that-is-all:
The economy is much more important. Which means we will stay in. One way or another.
* delete according to your preferences
Bone
Hollobone
Heaton-Harris
Leadsom
& from the past Mensch
Gawd bless yer, Mister Corbyn......
They do care about immigration though.
It's probably true that the government could 'get away' with various approaches to Brexit, but that would first require their selecting one. Oppositions have the luxury of ambiguity at times; governments do not.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-42704341
I agree with you on the second point though - if there was ever going to be a Brexit-dominated election it would have been June 2017.
Yet again, Jeremy Corbyn’s political judgement trumps those of the Labour moderates.
Got it.
Brr. 'tis a cold morning. Little snow again, but again flakes.
Grieve's 'meaningful vote' is also meaningful in that MPs will have to nail their colours to the mast.
I don't think so, not in the numbers seen above. Schools, NHS, uni fees etc etc.
A 'Heavy' launch is said to cost around $90m, as opposed to around a billion for the as yet undeveloped NASA equivalent. Any idea what the cost of a complete loss of the vehicle would be (presumably $90m plus whatever the replacement cost of the three reusable boosters, whatever that is) ?
They have literally nothing to gain from using their veto. Its a toy veto.
On Anna, she's clearly signalled that she'd join a hypothetical new centrist alliance but I agree that Broxtowe wouldn't elect her as a LibDem. Conversely, my connections are not what they were, but I'd be surprised if Broxtowe Conservatives deselected her - I've not heard a single whisper that they might, even from Tory members who she'd offended (she can be abrasive to colleagues without political reasons) and used to funnel Tory canvass plans and other information to me.
If Labour opposes Brexit though there would be no such LD revival and hence no Tory landslide with the Labour vote holding up but even then the Tories would have a bigger lead than 2017 possibly allowing for a small Tory majority.
Hence it is understandable why Corbyn wants to remain on the fence on Brexit as he did at the last general election for as long as possible.
Those the Tories lost in 2017? Maybe some will continue to be lost. But some others will focus on the prospect of Jeremy Corbyn, Prime Minister, in a way that they didn't in 2017 (because it was frankly never going to happen - even Labour said so). Some of them however will return to the Conservatives because Corbyn is now getting far too close to power and they were shocked at landing themselves a Labour MP last time and Labour is becoming a party of yobboes and anti-semites and, well, Brexit is a Past Thing.
Equally, there will be very few votes flowing the other way - votes that will be cast to reward the Government for the deal they have done to implement Brexit.
To the extent that there were voters who had invested their hopes in Corbyn stopping Brexit? Yes, Labour is somewhat exposed to "what is Labour for if it didn't stop Brexit?" - and to some of those people moving to a prone-on-their-arses posture on election day. Perhaps all the more so if, in a great gesture of magnanimity, on 31st March 2019 Theresa May is all over the news channel thanking Jeremy Corbyn for his assistance in making a smooth Brexit happen....
OK here is some pedantry. I appreciate that this battle was lost long ago, but: what you mean is "show their colours," meaning hoist a flag which identifies them as hard or soft brexiteers. You don't usually nail a flag to anything, you tie it to a halyard and pull it to the top, and tie it off, and the process is reversible. You nail your colours to the mast precisely because that is irreversible, so what you are doing is deliberately depriving yourself of the chance to capitulate by striking your colours if things aren't going your way.
**********
Absolutely fascinating nugget. Thanks for that.
O/T: The AfD now look as though they've definitely picked up some support since the German election, as do the Greens (though beware of INSA, whose results bearly always differ from everyone else's for some reason). The SPD and liberal FDP are fractionally down, the Left fractionally up, but no obvious big losers.
http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/
Next time that will be more difficult, especially if post Brexit and post transition Britain is not a land of milk and honey economically but say immigration has still fallen
Yet ‘centrist’ parties aren’t doing so well....
Why are Labour demanding we have to stay in the single market and CU when they know it means the EU cannot allow this without us also accepting all the EU rules - basically BINO.
Why does the BBC not put this to them?
Labour’s strategy so far is working fairly well for them. They are still polling 40%+ after the GE, so still keeping their coalition together.
Nearly always male and none who would look out of place in an Addams Family remake. .......Peter Bone Jacob Rees Mogg John Redwood Norman Lamont Boris Johnson Nigel Lawson Tim Martin Dominic Raab.
Are the media bookers pro Remain or just being mischievous?
It's easy to see how Labour can fix its impediment with a cohort of voters (replace the leader). Indeed, the leader himself may well be ok with that at the right moment.
It's very hard to see how the Conservatives can fix their problem with those voters who are currently opposed to them.
No opposition is going to vote against a chance to have an election.
Though I don't think it is the solution. Leave Anna be. She's loud and proud - but more out of touch with the Tory party base than ever.
If the Conservatives continue to be as incompetent as May and as entitled as MarqueeMark's above post epitomises, then it will happen eventually.
Although I don't support Corbyn as such I have been very pleased to see him succeed. That is where the left should be. He's put me back in the centre again.
With Brexit, IMHO it’s more about the cultural values associated with Remain or Leave that influence voting behaviours.
I’m not looking forward to it either.
Mr. CD13, that would require them to know their arse from their elbow. Saw a little bit of the Sunday Politics, and Sarah Smith (who is no Andrew Neil) appeared not to know what McDonnell had said about Tory MPs being hounded in public. Not impressive.
Sounds as believable as Tories4Palmer, and about as effective.
*Though I don't have a bloomberg terminal, so am probably a bit behind...
NB, in case I sound like a bigass naval historian, my sources are Patrick O'Brian and C S Forester.