politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The percentage of CON voters saying Brexit “wrong” reaches rec
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The percentage of CON voters saying Brexit “wrong” reaches record high
The details of the latest YouGov Brexit tracker is out and the striking feature is the high number of Conservative voters who are now saying that the referendum decision was wrong.
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Slow day.
But, unlike others, I do seize on the new YouGov figures. Removing Don’t Knows, we are now nearly at 54% Remain / 46% Leave.
Yes, it’s one one poll, but the trend has been very consistent - with last month being the only anomaly.
The reason this is important is two-fold.
First, the design of the referendum was flawed. We simply did not know what Brexit meant, aside from formally leaving the EU. I find it obnoxious that people now seek to explain exactly what people voted for - it wasn’t on the ballot. As Brexit becomes clearer, a shift in sentiment is relevant.
Second, the results were very close, given the profound constitutional upheaval at stake. One cannot just ignore the 48, or Scotland, or Northern Ireland.
When feeling most optimistic I look on Brexit as a continued debate about our future relationship with Europe. What seems clear now is that WTO is off the table. It has lost the battle of ideas, and we are left with only a handful of options: An FTA outside the SM & CU (Canada); An FTA outside the SM and inside the/a CU (Turkey); EFTA/EEA (Norway); a new form of associate membership; and Remain with various opt-outs.
I agree with Mr Nabavi that the PM has actually been clear in her preference for the first option. However, I also think her modus operandi is to play for time and let both debate and political reality resolve itself. It is possible that she has realised Canada+ would seriously dent the auto industry among others, and is now preparing for the Turkey option. That of course, renders Liam Fox redundant - and I do think that the idea of trading beyond Europe is THE ideological backbone of Brexit. I’d be amazed if JRM and the ERG signed off on it, or Boris for that matter.
Personally, I think EEA/EFTA - or a near equivalent arrangement - during an extended transition period, is the right path, and I think the nature of our final resting place is still to play for. Once May’s deal is done, we should have another vote on whether to proceed per her deal or whether to stay in the EEA/EFTA. Not just Brexit - but the nature of Brexit - needs democratic legitimacy.
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/02/02/upshot/polls-midterm-election-republicans-democrats.html?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&clickSource=story-heading&module=first-column-region®ion=top-news&WT.nav=top-news
It is also unattainable in the time we have.
The problem is simple.
The EEA agreement is 41 pages long (and there aren't that many words on each page, some pages just list the parties to the agreement, and some are the table of contents). It is not a complicated agreement, because signatories are bound by a large portion of EU law.
The Canada deal is longer, because it deals with things on a sector by sector basis, and each area is negotiated according to special interests. It's over 1,500 pages long, and the font size looks smaller to me.
We can (and will) negotiate a bespoke agreement with the EU. It will likely be 3,000 pages long, because we want greater integration than Canada did, and with financial services included. We also need to come up with a system for managing compliance, as it is the individual countries that make up the EU (and not the EU itself) that is responsible for day-to-day implementation. This agreement will contain provisions that prevent the erection of NTBs, and these will limit the sovereignty of the British Parliament.
The chances of this deal being agreed by the end of 2018 are zero. The chances of it being fully locked down by the end of the transition period on 31 December 2020 are close to zero. No major trade negotiation - especially where one party has 27 members, all of whom have effective vetoes - gets done this quickly if it is bespoke in nature.
Before the EU vote, I said that the government should be explicit in what they wanted, and that would be a near immediate exit to time limited EEA. We would sign a five year agreement with the EU based on having all the rights and obligations as Norway. This would have a provision for a single one year extension.
This was, and is, the best solution to the problem (with the proviso that we've now managed to lose almost two years).
Next door neighbour is an electrician. Reckons both times it was low supply. Clearly we aren't burning enough coal.
Now what I do not know is the extent to which Turkey's customs union affects Rules of Origin in Free Trade Deals. So, if a product is 40% value add in Turkey, and 40% in the EU, can the product be exported to Canada duty free? I suspect not, but I don't know. I think - for the purposes of the Canada trade deal for example - Turkey (as not part of *the* customs union and not a signatory to ) would be treated as a third party country.
It is forgotten that Tories were instrumental in Corbyn becoming leader. It would indeed be ironic if he made it to No.10 and led a very left-wing government, the very antitheist of Tory ideology.
Mr. City, sorry to hear you're also having such problems. Still, at least we can enjoy morally superior blackouts instead of horrible, carbon dioxide-emitting stable electricity supplies...
Mr. Taxman, not sure that claim stands up to scrutiny. And on the Lib Dems, they need a better leader.
useful idiotsThree Quidders.If the referendum result is ignored, that could have dire consequences for domestic politics. The current situation is polarised, but things could become far more bitter.
At least everybody knows what he stands for, which is more than can be said for either of the other two.
Mr. Meeks, teaching the electorate that democracy only counts when the political class gets an answer it considers acceptable is a very dangerous lesson.
I reserve my judgement until there is a lot more information on Jacob and the other candidates
The latter is something we accept we should be protected against, and I was indeed amused by the Crossbench peer using an analogy of his nervous aunts:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-politics-parliaments-42882107/taking-your-nervous-aunts-to-reservoir-dogs
Then again, though, I don't see any route for one to happen. Regardless of how popular the idea becomes in the country as a whole, how would it be in the interests of the Conservative Party? At the end of the day, Theresa May (or successor) has to keep her Party aligned behind her, and unless there was an overwhelming indication that the Tories would suffer serious electoral damage, I can't see any way that could happen.
Separately, I've been struck by just how much vehemence some of those too young to vote in the referendum have shown about the subject. It's all purely anecdotal, but it looks like - especially if Brexit does go badly or even just a little on the dismal side - there could be a lengthy amount of loathing from the next cohort of voters for those who voted for Brexit (who could quite possibly shrug it off and take revenge by writing them out of their wills, I guess, if that makes them feel better) and for those who implemented it. The latter might be arguably unfair - the Government didn't have much in the way of options - but such is the price of power. Especially if it looks like there was a democratically valid way out, which was rejected on party-political grounds.
http://www.gridwatch.templar.co.uk/
After years and years of being ignored on the issue of the EU, loss of control over our borders and our own laws, after years and years of demanding and not getting a referendum, finally in 2016, finally in 2016 the People of the UK got their say and a majority of them voted to leave the EU -and it was made clear at the time that the only way that the UK could end freedom of movement and gain sovereignty was to leave the Single Market too.
Imagine now that the Remoaners succeed in stopping Brexit. It would mean that 52% of people who voted to leave will come to the conclusion that democracy in Britain does not work, that the Establishment can simply sweep aside a democratic vote, that their voices simply do not matter, that the ballot box is just a joke.
It will means that millions of people will feel disenfranchised, many will turn to extreme groups, some will turn to violence. Democracy will be discredited. The ballot box will be replaced with the politics of the street.
The consequences of stopping a democratically arrived at Brexit would be dire. And a Brexit only in name would be scarcely better.
Edit: Mousing over the meter:
The amber warning represents the demand level that cannot be reliably met by wood or fossil burning and nuclear generation, but must be augmented by imports, or unreliable intermittent 'renewable' energy.
Although the UK is still exporting 2GW to France...
* Edit some of these should be easier from the EEA
Brexit the new Munich?
"If the referendum result was simply cancelled, it would be regarded as a coup against democracy not just by leave voters, but by many remainers. Faith in democracy may never be rebuilt – “more people voted for Brexit than for anything else in British history and the establishment thwarted it”, the refrain would go. It would surely be the greatest shot in the arm for the radical right in British history – not least because the result was in part due to a sense of resentment against a contemptuous political elite."
He is right. If Remoaners succeed, it will be a blow against democracy. Millions will turn against democracy. Many will be so angry they will turn to the hard right and perhaps even to violence. The extreme right will have been handed the biggest gift in British political history.
Remoaners do you really want that?
Ultimately we need leadership, listening, and reconciliation. For all May’s Brexit means Brexit, I have yet to hear anything which indicates she is interested in addressing some of the domestic policy challenges behind the vote: the North / South divide; the mistrust of elites; stagnant working class wages; the poor performance of white working class children in education etc etc.
Brexit is not Brexit if it is just Brexit.
https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/elections/2018/02/what-polls-do-and-don-t-tell-us-about-battle-between-jeremy-corbyn-and
Both of the big parties' partisans are probably quite pleased with their 40% share of the vote. But the reality is that the next election will probably be decided by which one holds the most of that share. A UKIP or a Lib Dem revival which shaves a bigger chunk off one of the big ones more than the other is quite likely to be decisive. If I was in charge of the Conservatives I'd be terrified of a UKIP revival and worried about a Lib Dem one. If I ran Labour I'd be worried about a UKIP revival and terrified of a Lib Dem one. I really wouldn't want to open my mouth on Brexit at all for fear of providing ammunition to the small parties to snap at my heals.
I don't envy either leader their job.
And no more referendums - SNP should consider that carefully.
Simply that, as the debate has continued and the vote was so close, there is grounds for a further vote.
I am torn as to what the question should be.
I am not sure it’s feasible to offer up the status quo ante.
Brexit: Dammed if you do, dammed if you don't.
Ultimately, for the purposes of the EU, we are better in than out - which means they must also find a solution to a significant body of Eurosceptism.
I will never forget that day as I returned home from school my Grandmother telling me my beloved Busby Babes had been wiped out in a plane crash. Gone were Tommy Taylor, Roger Byrne, Eddie Colman, Geoff Bent, Mark Jones, David Pegg, and Billy Whelan and with Duncan Edwards to die in hospital two weeks later. Pictures of Matt Busby in an oxygen tent were on tv daily and of course Bobby Charlton, Harry Gregg, Bill Foukes, Jackie Blanchflower, Johnny Berry, Kenny Morgans, Albert Scanlon, Dennis Viollet and Ray Wood survived many seriously injured.
It seems like yesterday and I remember the blank team sheets so well.
I expect the media will cover the anniversary in some depth next tuesday
But, without any serious calls for a second referendum.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3633368/Brexit-Tory-warns-SECOND-referendum-bound-crucial-Tory-leadership-contest-replace-Cameron-Leave-lose.html
Indeed I think the HOL could cause great anger if they are not careful
Such polling is being used now as an argument to frustrate or stop Brexit, despite the referendum mandate. But there would have been no similar recourse for Remain.
Both the EU, and the UK Government to a lesser extent, would have made it very clear the matter was closed, and the decision binding; albeit I suspect it would have caused ongoing trouble within the Conservative Party.
At heart, your argument is just a sneer against the Establishment, which is fair enough but not really relevant.
But we need to bear in mind that unfair misuse of the system is the Conservative hallmark these days.
Anna Soubry, a former business minister, and Ken Clarke, the former chancellor, said they would try to get cross-party support for keeping the UK’s current customs arrangements with the EU, in a clear challenge to May’s authority.
They have a strong chance of causing an embarrassing government defeat if Jeremy Corbyn’s frontbench supports their amendments to two trade bills when they are debated in the House of Commons before the end of February.
It is understood Labour is not ruling out backing the Tory rebels, who already have the support of a number of pro-EU Labour backbenchers. Soubry said it was part of “building a Brexit consensus inside and outside parliament”.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/feb/02/tory-rebels-launch-bid-to-keep-uk-in-customs-union-with-eu
https://twitter.com/chloekayex/status/959494136427696128
The 1968 European Final triump was amazing and I was privileged to be with my daughter and son in law at the Nou Camp in 1999 when we beat Bayern in that amazing final
This poll shows an apparent shift in one week - next week it might be different. Mrs Thatcher might as well have quit in 1981 looking at the polls - within a year it was rather different. But I suppose politicians were made of tougher stuff then.
Oh for more signposts rather than weathervanes - as Tony Benn once put it. You either stand on principle - or you might as well not bother standing at all (as Meryl Streep might have put it).
Democracy cannot function if losers can overturn elections because they do not like the results. And they will not be allowed to.
Given the mixed views which the British public have towards the EU a vote either way would have shown regrets that would show up in the polling. But, I do think such calls for a revote would have been confined to a wing of the Conservative Party and UKIP. I doubt they'd be taken very seriously by the broadcast media, Government or business. So I do think there's an asymmetry there.
Many posters here would have switched positions the other way round.