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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why Tony Blair should be Diane Abbott’s role model
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why Tony Blair should be Diane Abbott’s role model
There was something churlish about Diane Abbott’s attempt to put down Tony Blair recently — “no one can now remember that they supported Tony Blair.”
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http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/03/22/revealed-jeremy-corbyn-showed-off-naked-diane-abbott-to-impress/
It's unlikely I'll get there.
If Corbyn becomes PM it will not be because of his Shadow Cabinet but because the country will be so heartily sick of the Tories by then.
Corbyn might as well have little Lego figures in his team, frankly.
Abbott is not shining now. But she did make one of the best speeches in the Commons against 90-day detention, one of Blair's most loathsome policies. I don't much like her but she was spot on when criticising the government over that proposed policy.
If he does win office there will come a day when Jeremy Corbyn will also be extremely unpopular, and many people will also "forget" that they ever support him too.
http://www.parliamentlive.tv/Event/Index/fa4983be-4391-43bf-bad8-0b742339b5ee
I really don't want to spend the rest of my life going through an endless political cycle where Labour gets elected to spend money like water, crashes the economy, and then the Tories get elected to sort it out, suffering all the unpopularity and brand damage for the tough decisions they take in the meantime, only for Labour to win again once people get fed up with it just as the Tories start to get a grip.
But, it's probably what will happen.
https://twitter.com/davidallengreen/status/957900545020321792
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/jan/29/naysayers-2017-election-youthquake-wasnt-myth-labour-surge
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jan/29/no-youthquake-for-labour-in-2017-election-survey-finds-british-election-study-corbyn
It should also be noted that yes, Corbyn and Boris gave bad interviews during the election, but neither are the same level of punchline that Diane finds herself to be, despite being a groundbreaking politician in many other ways. Boris can get away with flubbing interview questions he had literally sneaked a peek at during the break and being pretty outrageously racist and still sit on the front bench 'coz that's just Boris' way, but Diane gets some numbers wrong (yes, in a spectacular way) and that joke still gets brought out for every HIGNIFY or other political "maths" issue.
What a complex relationship they have had.
Reminds me a bit of the Diadochi. Practically every one of those who survived the early years had bad (sometimes terrible) relationships with their sons, except Antigonus, who always got along well with Demetrius. But they ended up defeated at the Battle of Ipsus.
Many Plantagenet kings likewise didn't get along with their sons, except Edward III and the Black Prince, but the latter died of a wasting disease before his father expired, so never became king.
Hmm. Maybe I should look more into this. Does getting along with your dad make succeeding him as king/emperor less likely?
Edit. The UK negotiations is an order of magnitude more complex than the Canadian CETA, which took about a decade to negotiate. They were looking for a discretionary free trade agreement; we necessarily must deal also with fisheries, citizenship, migration, third party arrangements, nuclear waste handling, Irish border issues etc etc.
https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/957922834461986816
Especially, "Look at what the Woodstock Generation has become, and weep"
I take your point about the greater level of detail required for a trade deal, but we start from 100% regulatory alignment so I don't think it's too bad.
Another thing to be said for the older ones is they aren't as fervently over-ambitious as the younger ones, and probably use wiser judgement as a result.
Yeah, dreadful lack of commitment. Corbyn goes out leafletting whilst Abbott stays abed.
Your point about staying in a rules-based system we've just decided to leave is totally valid. Every option available to us has big problems, including rejoining the EU, but we will have to decide what compromise we are prepared to make. This what we are discussing.
I don't expect having existing regulatory alignment to massively speed up negotiations. The key is what is in the document. And don't forget the scope is vastly bigger and more urgent than CETA. Many FTAs never happen. We are still to see FTAs between the EU and Japan, the USA and India. The EU hasn't dragged its feet on those deals any more than its potential partners.
Whereas, EEA is off the shelf and the other EFTA nations seem to be very open to our membership.
Its not as “vasally” as the proposed transition period which risks becoming indefinite depending on how long it takes to negotiate an FTA which the EU has no particular interest in prioritising.
It may be the hard Brexiters come around finally to EFTA as a better transition - just as @rcs1000 and others argued at the outset.
It’s a one way ticket to vassal-land with no guarantees beyond that.
It’s not just the Rees-Moggers who would find this unacceptable.
You won, suck it up etc. The Bill Cashes of this world own this however much they fume against it. My sneaking respect for Boris Johnson for staying in Government and trying to make the impossible work somehow is still there.
In any case there are many examples in history of where people are truly vile but popular. including the obvious one.
He is trying to position himself so that when it fails utterly he can say "I told you so"
"a couple of black eyes and a cracked rib"
Hilarious.
https://twitter.com/iandunt/status/957977142960279552
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/5339046/boris-johnson-warns-allies-that-brexit-is-still-far-from-certain-and-they-face-a-big-fight-to-deliver-it/
Boris has told confidantes that still having to accept dictats from Brussels would leave the UK as “just another Norway” and the nationwide vote’s landmark result would have proved “a total waste of time”.
In that soft Brexit scenario, the mop-haired Tory boss has even claimed to pals: “I’d rather us stay in than leave like that”.
Another interesting point is with no input into EU decision-making, swathes of policy simply don't get discussed in Norway, in parliament or elsewhere. It simply becomes a civil servant's implementation process.
The whole things is worth a read, especially as we will probably end up there.
Just as, despite all of the experiments with communism and radical socialism during the 20th Century, there are those today who dismiss these all as aberrations and argue that true communism has never been tried.
16:07 Q: Davis wants the UK to be able to negotiate trade deals during the transition, and he wants the UK to be represented on EU committees. Do you accept that?
Barnier says he accepts that the UK will want to talk to third countries during the transition.
But the UK will not be able to implement those agreements during the transition, without the approval of the EU.
He says if decisions involve the UK, then the UK will be consulted.
(Not acceptance that we'd have a formal place on committees, though).
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2018/jan/29/brexit-david-davis-eu-transition-lords-minister-explains-why-she-condemned-hardline-tory-brexiters-as-swivel-eyed-politics-live
Us: can we have a FTA please?
Unnamed third country: ok no probs, what is your trading relationship with the EU?
Us: er...
Edited extra bit: and William Marshal, now I come to think of it.
Edit, Edit. Although there is a big risk of not knowing before the end of the transition, especially if we go for the Canada route. Incidentally Barnier only says that avoiding that outcome is possible in response to a direct question on it
As @Tissue_Price rightly says, it's of no consequence anyway. It's only 20 months for heaven's sake, and the EU is institutionally incapable of doing anything much in such a short time. You have to be a fully-paid-up eye-swiveler to be exercised about the transition period.
And for those who think Barnier is all knowing he seems to be a master at fudge and really gives the impression that he is being assertive while his body language is one of uncertainty, even when speaking in his own language
https://twitter.com/CitySamuel/status/958012959959277568
Either way I expect the terms of it to be qualified prior to its agreement.
Anyway, I thought Remainers were arguing for Article 50 not to be invoked so soon. At least we can negotiate new trade deals now, which we couldn't if we had followed your side's plan.
William Marshal saved England from the French invasion in the early 13th century.
Edited extra bit: a review, by me, of a biography of the aforementioned knight: http://thaddeusthesixth.blogspot.co.uk/2016/01/review-greatest-knight-by-thomas.html
Does it matter ?
And that means....GE2022!!