politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Now isn’t the time to push May, whatever the temptation
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Now isn’t the time to push May, whatever the temptation
Only one of the three traditional British parties currently has a leader – and that one by happenstance. To lead is by definition a dynamic thing. It is to set oneself at the head of something and take it somewhere in such a way that others follow. It is not a quality granted simply by virtue of holding a given office.
Comments
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No! Now is the perfect time. A bit later and you're in elections and the business end of Brexit.0
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As I said on the previous thread both sides are pressurising May because the transition/implementation deal seems surprisingly imminent and is going to upset a lot of people. Holding the party together through that is going to take more skill, subtlety and luck than May has shown to date.0
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There is definitely a window open now that after March will close for some time .0
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I understand David Herdson's argument but I disagree. The country urgently needs a leader right now. Almost any of the conceivable candidates would be an improvement.
(Jacob Cream Crackers and Andrea Leadsom being the obvious exceptions)0 -
Not sure Boris would be either. Hammond is too Europhile to be acceptable to the Party. The others are too unknown.AlastairMeeks said:I understand David Herdson's argument but I disagree. The country urgently needs a leader right now. Almost any of the conceivable candidates would be an improvement.
(Jacob Cream Crackers and Andrea Leadsom being the obvious exceptions)
I think May will stay because there's no realistic alternative. At least until March next year.0 -
Would the public question why you are getting rid of her now rather than straight after the election?
I understand why but she has become more popular, from her peak unpopularity it could seem a bit of a mess (or more so) to the public.0 -
Both Philip Hammond and Boris Johnson would at least try to lead intelligently.Fishing said:
Not sure Boris would be either. Hammond is too Europhile to be acceptable to the Party. The others are too unknown.AlastairMeeks said:I understand David Herdson's argument but I disagree. The country urgently needs a leader right now. Almost any of the conceivable candidates would be an improvement.
(Jacob Cream Crackers and Andrea Leadsom being the obvious exceptions)
I think May will stay because there's no realistic alternative. At least until March next year.0 -
‘You have sat too long here for any good you have been doing. Depart, I say, and let us have done with you. In the name of God, go.’0
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It's going to be Gove, isn't it?0
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That would suit me. He says after checking his betfair account.Jonathan said:It's going to be Gove, isn't it?
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It would probably be better to have the leadership election now than after we leave the EU, in terms of the Brexit timetable. The Withdrawal Agreement, including the so called "transition" arrangements, is take it or leave it at this stage, where leave it means guaranteed chaos. I would hope any serious Tory leader would go along with it, regardless of their rhetoric beforehand. The "transition" simply shifts the cliff edge back by twenty months. Whoever is leader at that point will need to make some hard choices, as Theresa May is NOT doing right now. No-one should want the first half of those negotiations to be thrown into doubt by a change of leader midway.0
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If it is Michael Gove I will vote Labour, even if the Jezaster is still leading them.Jonathan said:It's going to be Gove, isn't it?
I am now in the run in to new exams at GCSE, designed by Gove. Three weeks ago, the entire assessment mechanism was changed. All the question weightings, all the markschemes, all the layouts.
At the same time, OFQUAL have also made it harder to get a level 5 than to get a level 8 in history - for a 5 you have to analyse and evaluate, for an 8 you only have to evaluate. In theory at least therefore you can get a level 8 with a one sentence answer, but need three paragraphs for a 5.
And while we are on the subject, the specification was drawn up in such a hurry that I keep finding errors in it. For example, I am meant to teach my students about the university system in England in the aftermath of the Norman Conquest - except there was no university system in England at the Norman conquest or for over a century thereafter (unhelpfully Wikipedia and Oxford University's website both wrongly state that the university was founded in 1096, confusing it with the Abbey Choir School - but the fact a few teenage computer programmers are ignorant f the facts is no excuse for a trained historian getting it wrong).
This is down to Gove and his inability to do things - even things that might be good in practice - slowly and with due regard to logistics. If he were in charge we'd have a transition deal that was far less forensically prepared than one by Davis - and that should not be taken as an endorsement of Davis. He'd probably absent-mindedly declare that all banks need to be based in Loudon instead of London for regulatory purposes and sign off without noticing he's handed over our entire banking sector to the Americans.
The only thing to say in Gove's favour is he is not Nicky Morgan - who is so stupid she thought the head of OFQUAL who oversaw this total shambles would are a good candidate as head of OFSTED, which is now also not unexpectedly collapsing in an undignified heap of chaos, inconsistency and understaffing.0 -
May sits at the sharp end of a tripod made up of Brexiteers, remainers and those who just want to win elections and run the country. Frank Herbert in Dune told us that tripods were the least stable form of government. This one has survived because she is a compromise that each of the factions would rather live with than the opposing legs but it has inevitably imposed a stasis on her government. Whenever she tries to move, as she did in the reshuffle, the whole structure wobbles.
Stasis can survive as long as there are no decisive decisions to be made. But there are.0 -
Good forensic analysis by David as usual.
As I said yesterday, I think May's 38% rating as doing a good job when virually nobody in frontline politics would privately agree is actually quite impressive. David's reasons why she isn't are, as he says, mostly related to whether she's a good party leader, and the public cares little about that. They see someone of perhaps limited ability doing her best in a difficult situation without any obvious catastrophes. They don't especially see why she should be replaced.
But that will apply even more after Brexit. I can well see the public feeling OK, she's done the best of a bad job, well done, and getting up to say 45% approval rating. A leadership challenge at that point will look grossly unfair and driven by personal ambition rather than the good of the country. So if there isn't a challenge now, we should see a real possibility that she'll be leader at the next GE.0 -
Now we hear that UK officials are trying to push for a three year "transition" (obviously in the hope that Jezza wins the 2022 election and keeps us in "transition" indefinitely) now is the time for Brexiteers to move against Theresa May and get rid.
They have nothing to lose as the way it's going there isn't going to be a Brexit under Theresa May.0 -
The fear of what might follow her gives May some clout in negotiation, just by threatening to go and leave Brexit to her successor...(Boris, she would say quietly to them, under her breath....WTO Hard Brexit... no cheque for £40 billion.....)
One area I do disagree on though is that "prime ministers are rarely short of self-confidence". Possibly in the general, but in the specific case of May, I think the election in June destroyed what self-confidence she had. It already looked to be in short supply before the election - her halting performances at PMQs were never those of somebody oozing self-confidence. But running an election that was all about Me! Me! Me! - and then to be rejected, well that is going to be a blow to anybody's ego.
Add into the mix that her hand-picked Praetorian Guard of advisors were the ones who let her down so badly in their advice on the campaign. They have (correctly) had to leave the stage - but that void will further hurt her self confidence. Her choice of advisors went badly wrong. Is there anybody she can now trust? Especially when she must now doubt her own judgment.
And whatever self-confidence remains isn't helped when EVERYBODY knows you are on the way out - the only question is when. No sane person will say she can front another election. So she has to go before that. But a minority government is not entirely able to pick the time of that next election. That election could come sooner than wanted. A Conservative Party that ends up going into an election fronted by somebody that nobody wants there would be a disaster. The Party would deserve to be given a kicking. But that isn't the worst of it. The same MPs who let that happen have a genuine deep-seated fear of what damage a Corbyn Government could do to the country they love. Preventing that is high on their list of priorities.
Not easy at the moment, being a Tory MP with a lettet to Sir Graham Brady sat in your pocket.0 -
Dr Palmer
Thank you for yesterday's story. It led to a very interesting discussion about being willing to risk losing something in the hope of getting something better. And it's always good to remind teenagers facing exams that there are worse things in life than revision!0 -
Boris Johnson would be a wild card. There's no reason to think he would make a good prime minister, but there are reasons for hoping he MIGHT make one, if you are desperate enough. I can't see Gove turning out well and Hammond doesn't fit the profile.AlastairMeeks said:
Both Philip Hammond and Boris Johnson would at least try to lead intelligently.Fishing said:
Not sure Boris would be either. Hammond is too Europhile to be acceptable to the Party. The others are too unknown.AlastairMeeks said:I understand David Herdson's argument but I disagree. The country urgently needs a leader right now. Almost any of the conceivable candidates would be an improvement.
(Jacob Cream Crackers and Andrea Leadsom being the obvious exceptions)
I think May will stay because there's no realistic alternative. At least until March next year.
Who the Tories actually choose is another matter. David would have as good an insight as anyone, I think. Remember this is a party that enthusiastically embraced Iain Duncan Smith and is competing with a Labour party that chose Corbyn.0 -
Oh dear.ydoethur said:
If it is Michael Gove I will vote Labour, even if the Jezaster is still leading them.Jonathan said:It's going to be Gove, isn't it?
I am now in the run in to new exams at GCSE, designed by Gove. Three weeks ago, the entire assessment mechanism was changed. All the question weightings, all the markschemes, all the layouts.
At the same time, OFQUAL have also made it harder to get a level 5 than to get a level 8 in history - for a 5 you have to analyse and evaluate, for an 8 you only have to evaluate. In theory at least therefore you can get a level 8 with a one sentence answer, but need three paragraphs for a 5.
And while we are on the subject, the specification was drawn up in such a hurry that I keep finding errors in it. For example, I am meant to teach my students about the university system in England in the aftermath of the Norman Conquest - except there was no university system in England at the Norman conquest or for over a century thereafter (unhelpfully Wikipedia and Oxford University's website both wrongly state that the university was founded in 1096, confusing it with the Abbey Choir School - but the fact a few teenage computer programmers are ignorant f the facts is no excuse for a trained historian getting it wrong).
This is down to Gove and his inability to do things - even things that might be good in practice - slowly and with due regard to logistics. If he were in charge we'd have a transition deal that was far less forensically prepared than one by Davis - and that should not be taken as an endorsement of Davis. He'd probably absent-mindedly declare that all banks need to be based in Loudon instead of London for regulatory purposes and sign off without noticing he's handed over our entire banking sector to the Americans.
The only thing to say in Gove's favour is he is not Nicky Morgan - who is so stupid she thought the head of OFQUAL who oversaw this total shambles would are a good candidate as head of OFSTED, which is now also not unexpectedly collapsing in an undignified heap of chaos, inconsistency and understaffing.
Why she was ever promoted to cabinet I'll never understand...0 -
When Brexiteers get rid of May the intractable problems will remain intractable.GIN1138 said:Now we hear that UK officials are trying to push for a three year "transition" (obviously in the hope that Jezza wins the 2022 election and keeps us in "transition" indefinitely) now is the time for Brexiteers to move against Theresa May and get rid.
They have nothing to lose as the way it's going there isn't going to be a Brexit under Theresa May.
https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/9569280838938501120 -
Tut! Tut! Mr Palmer....bringing data to the party.NickPalmer said:Good forensic analysis by David as usual.
As I said yesterday, I think May's 38% rating as doing a good job when virually nobody in frontline politics would privately agree is actually quite impressive. David's reasons why she isn't are, as he says, mostly related to whether she's a good party leader, and the public cares little about that. They see someone of perhaps limited ability doing her best in a difficult situation without any obvious catastrophes. They don't especially see why she should be replaced.
But that will apply even more after Brexit. I can well see the public feeling OK, she's done the best of a bad job, well done, and getting up to say 45% approval rating. A leadership challenge at that point will look grossly unfair and driven by personal ambition rather than the good of the country. So if there isn't a challenge now, we should see a real possibility that she'll be leader at the next GE.
So Corbyn bestrides the stage a colossus and May is nowhere to be seen?
https://twitter.com/GideonSkinner/status/9569371442154905600 -
I used to work in change management.williamglenn said:
When Brexiteers get rid of May the intractable problems will remain intractable.GIN1138 said:Now we hear that UK officials are trying to push for a three year "transition" (obviously in the hope that Jezza wins the 2022 election and keeps us in "transition" indefinitely) now is the time for Brexiteers to move against Theresa May and get rid.
They have nothing to lose as the way it's going there isn't going to be a Brexit under Theresa May.
https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/956928083893850112
People don't like change. Businesses hate change.
But when it is forced upon them by necessity, they get used to it.
You keep finding problems and think that is going to lead to us being involved in a Federal Europe.
Yet you don't seem to see the biggest problem with that - that the British people don't want that.0 -
You seriously think Theresa May is *managing* change?Mortimer said:
I used to work in change management.williamglenn said:
When Brexiteers get rid of May the intractable problems will remain intractable.GIN1138 said:Now we hear that UK officials are trying to push for a three year "transition" (obviously in the hope that Jezza wins the 2022 election and keeps us in "transition" indefinitely) now is the time for Brexiteers to move against Theresa May and get rid.
They have nothing to lose as the way it's going there isn't going to be a Brexit under Theresa May.
https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/956928083893850112
People don't like change. Businesses hate change.
But when it is forced upon them by necessity, they get used to it.
You keep finding problems and think that is going to lead to us being involved in a Federal Europe.
Yet you don't seem to see the biggest problem with that - that the British people don't want that.0 -
Theresa May is a manager. We need a leader.0
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The Italians could be even more disobliging to the EU:
https://news.sky.com/story/sky-views-italy-could-be-britains-most-influential-ally-during-brexit-112240560 -
May's ratings are pretty typical for a PM. She's a long way ahead of Brown or Major, when they were unpopular.CarlottaVance said:
Tut! Tut! Mr Palmer....bringing data to the party.NickPalmer said:Good forensic analysis by David as usual.
As I said yesterday, I think May's 38% rating as doing a good job when virually nobody in frontline politics would privately agree is actually quite impressive. David's reasons why she isn't are, as he says, mostly related to whether she's a good party leader, and the public cares little about that. They see someone of perhaps limited ability doing her best in a difficult situation without any obvious catastrophes. They don't especially see why she should be replaced.
But that will apply even more after Brexit. I can well see the public feeling OK, she's done the best of a bad job, well done, and getting up to say 45% approval rating. A leadership challenge at that point will look grossly unfair and driven by personal ambition rather than the good of the country. So if there isn't a challenge now, we should see a real possibility that she'll be leader at the next GE.
So Corbyn bestrides the stage a colossus and May is nowhere to be seen?
https://twitter.com/GideonSkinner/status/9569371442154905600 -
I like experts who are prepared to say 'we don't know'.CarlottaVance said:Sir John tweets:
https://twitter.com/whatukthinks/status/9571771434731315200 -
I'm not at all sure about that.AlastairMeeks said:
Both Philip Hammond and Boris Johnson would at least try to lead intelligently.Fishing said:
Not sure Boris would be either. Hammond is too Europhile to be acceptable to the Party. The others are too unknown.AlastairMeeks said:I understand David Herdson's argument but I disagree. The country urgently needs a leader right now. Almost any of the conceivable candidates would be an improvement.
(Jacob Cream Crackers and Andrea Leadsom being the obvious exceptions)
I think May will stay because there's no realistic alternative. At least until March next year.0 -
I agree with that logic. Mrs May's pitch is that she will get a deal and she won't do anything stupid. It's a decent pitch, and one that doesn't apply to several other potential replacements. As the negotiations may well go on past the next election and certainly will if we go for a Canada variant, there has to be the possibility of her leading the Tories into that election.NickPalmer said:Good forensic analysis by David as usual.
As I said yesterday, I think May's 38% rating as doing a good job when virually nobody in frontline politics would privately agree is actually quite impressive. David's reasons why she isn't are, as he says, mostly related to whether she's a good party leader, and the public cares little about that. They see someone of perhaps limited ability doing her best in a difficult situation without any obvious catastrophes. They don't especially see why she should be replaced.
But that will apply even more after Brexit. I can well see the public feeling OK, she's done the best of a bad job, well done, and getting up to say 45% approval rating. A leadership challenge at that point will look grossly unfair and driven by personal ambition rather than the good of the country. So if there isn't a challenge now, we should see a real possibility that she'll be leader at the next GE.
On the other hand it just takes 48 pissed off MPs to write a letter and she's gone. Truly a sword of Damocles hangs by a thread0 -
neither am I. Just look at Boris's record as Foreign Sec.. DeplorableSean_F said:
I'm not at all sure about that.AlastairMeeks said:
Both Philip Hammond and Boris Johnson would at least try to lead intelligently.Fishing said:
Not sure Boris would be either. Hammond is too Europhile to be acceptable to the Party. The others are too unknown.AlastairMeeks said:I understand David Herdson's argument but I disagree. The country urgently needs a leader right now. Almost any of the conceivable candidates would be an improvement.
(Jacob Cream Crackers and Andrea Leadsom being the obvious exceptions)
I think May will stay because there's no realistic alternative. At least until March next year.0 -
Theresa May will probably go next year, over the Summer.
The A50 deal will be done, the Heads of Terms for the new deal will have been laid out, and it'll be about sealing the deal with the EU, other trade deals with other countries, and what sort of vision the Conservative Party wants to pitch to the country in GE2022.
Of course, that new leader will have 2 1/2 years to soil themselves in office, and might not be the freshest thing on the menu by the time the election comes round, but my view is that's better than further years of directionless drift under May.0 -
Across the continent the EU outside of a fairly narrow clique is tolerated rather than loved. Tolerated for the many good things it promotes, but not loved because of its posturing and complacency.CarlottaVance said:The Italians could be even more disobliging to the EU:
https://news.sky.com/story/sky-views-italy-could-be-britains-most-influential-ally-during-brexit-11224056
The problem is that the EU sees rejection of its treaty changes, a reluctance to pay more money over and consistently low turnout in EU-wide elections as evidence that they need more integration to bolster its legitimacy. Verhofstadt's famous comment that Brexit shows just how popular the EU is a spectacular example of this peculiar thinking, but Lisbon is perhaps the better one. Or Greece, where the evidence that the single currency imposed by blatantly breaking the rules had ruined the country was blithely ignored and Greece forced to give up more of its sovereignty, the loss of which was partly to blame for the problems, in exchange for a rescue the EU's stupidity and overt politicisation itself had made necessary.
And it is killing the EU. Which given the ramifications should it collapse, and the genuine benefits it does bring and could extend if run correctly, is not a cheering thought.0 -
+1david_herdson said:
I like experts who are prepared to say 'we don't know'.CarlottaVance said:Sir John tweets:
https://twitter.com/whatukthinks/status/9571771434731315200 -
Neither Hammond nor Johnson would provide any answers, and are both fundamentally flawed characters for PM.
The ones with capability, courage and vision, who've also shown leadership, are Hunt and Gove. Rudd is highly professional, but I don't see much of a PM in her.
You can forget Leadsom.0 -
Lowest Satisfied score:Sean_F said:
May's ratings are pretty typical for a PM. She's a long way ahead of Brown or Major, when they were unpopular.CarlottaVance said:
Tut! Tut! Mr Palmer....bringing data to the party.NickPalmer said:Good forensic analysis by David as usual.
As I said yesterday, I think May's 38% rating as doing a good job when virually nobody in frontline politics would privately agree is actually quite impressive. David's reasons why she isn't are, as he says, mostly related to whether she's a good party leader, and the public cares little about that. They see someone of perhaps limited ability doing her best in a difficult situation without any obvious catastrophes. They don't especially see why she should be replaced.
But that will apply even more after Brexit. I can well see the public feeling OK, she's done the best of a bad job, well done, and getting up to say 45% approval rating. A leadership challenge at that point will look grossly unfair and driven by personal ambition rather than the good of the country. So if there isn't a challenge now, we should see a real possibility that she'll be leader at the next GE.
So Corbyn bestrides the stage a colossus and May is nowhere to be seen?
https://twitter.com/GideonSkinner/status/956937144215490560
Cameron: 28
Brown: 21
Blair: 250 -
As opposed to headline writers who make unsubstantiated claims......david_herdson said:
I like experts who are prepared to say 'we don't know'.CarlottaVance said:Sir John tweets:
https://twitter.com/whatukthinks/status/9571771434731315200 -
And Hammond is May without the charisma.SquareRoot said:
neither am I. Just look at Boris's record as Foreign Sec.. DeplorableSean_F said:
I'm not at all sure about that.AlastairMeeks said:
Both Philip Hammond and Boris Johnson would at least try to lead intelligently.Fishing said:
Not sure Boris would be either. Hammond is too Europhile to be acceptable to the Party. The others are too unknown.AlastairMeeks said:I understand David Herdson's argument but I disagree. The country urgently needs a leader right now. Almost any of the conceivable candidates would be an improvement.
(Jacob Cream Crackers and Andrea Leadsom being the obvious exceptions)
I think May will stay because there's no realistic alternative. At least until March next year.0 -
I don't see any of the current batch of front bench politicians* of either party as being fit for high office. That is not imply they are corrupt or evil. Just crap.Sean_F said:
And Hammond is May without the charisma.SquareRoot said:
neither am I. Just look at Boris's record as Foreign Sec.. DeplorableSean_F said:
I'm not at all sure about that.AlastairMeeks said:
Both Philip Hammond and Boris Johnson would at least try to lead intelligently.Fishing said:
Not sure Boris would be either. Hammond is too Europhile to be acceptable to the Party. The others are too unknown.AlastairMeeks said:I understand David Herdson's argument but I disagree. The country urgently needs a leader right now. Almost any of the conceivable candidates would be an improvement.
(Jacob Cream Crackers and Andrea Leadsom being the obvious exceptions)
I think May will stay because there's no realistic alternative. At least until March next year.
*With the exception of Michael Gove0 -
All parties will embrace a newly elected leader, even when most are privately sceptical or even derisive. Some people may choose not to join an inner team - a front bench, say - for policy reasons but to actively oppose from Day 1 is to oppose the members as well as the leader.FF43 said:
Boris Johnson would be a wild card. There's no reason to think he would make a good prime minister, but there are reasons for hoping he MIGHT make one, if you are desperate enough. I can't see Gove turning out well and Hammond doesn't fit the profile.AlastairMeeks said:
Both Philip Hammond and Boris Johnson would at least try to lead intelligently.Fishing said:
Not sure Boris would be either. Hammond is too Europhile to be acceptable to the Party. The others are too unknown.AlastairMeeks said:I understand David Herdson's argument but I disagree. The country urgently needs a leader right now. Almost any of the conceivable candidates would be an improvement.
(Jacob Cream Crackers and Andrea Leadsom being the obvious exceptions)
I think May will stay because there's no realistic alternative. At least until March next year.
Who the Tories actually choose is another matter. David would have as good an insight as anyone, I think. Remember this is a party that enthusiastically embraced Iain Duncan Smith and is competing with a Labour party that chose Corbyn.
Who would the Party pick? It could be one of quite a lot. A huge amount would depend on the campaigns. I'm still sceptical about Rees-Mogg because I can see him getting into all sorts of problems over social policy and over naively answering questions he should deflect.0 -
Hammond yes, perhaps. If Boris becomes PM the country will be ruined!Sean_F said:
I'm not at all sure about that.AlastairMeeks said:
Both Philip Hammond and Boris Johnson would at least try to lead intelligently.Fishing said:
Not sure Boris would be either. Hammond is too Europhile to be acceptable to the Party. The others are too unknown.AlastairMeeks said:I understand David Herdson's argument but I disagree. The country urgently needs a leader right now. Almost any of the conceivable candidates would be an improvement.
(Jacob Cream Crackers and Andrea Leadsom being the obvious exceptions)
I think May will stay because there's no realistic alternative. At least until March next year.0 -
How does this letters 'thing' work in practice? Once a MP sends in a no confidence letter does that count until they send another one rescinding their vote or Is it valid for three/six/etc months. Would the PM privately be told what the count had got to on a daily basis?0
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Morning all,
Impossible to call this one imho. There may be a vote of no confidence within days.0 -
but allegedly still prompting loudly from the wings...MarqueeMark said:Add into the mix that her hand-picked Praetorian Guard of advisors were the ones who let her down so badly in their advice on the campaign. They have (correctly) had to leave the stage -
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You are of course entirely wrong about Gove who is by far the best minister we have had in a very long time. Given how much he has rightly been lauded at Justice and DEFRA and the fact that the education system was frankly not fit for purpose for many years I am afraid I cannot take your comments seriously.ydoethur said:
If it is Michael Gove I will vote Labour, even if the Jezaster is still leading them.Jonathan said:It's going to be Gove, isn't it?
I am now in the run in to new exams at GCSE, designed by Gove. Three weeks ago, the entire assessment mechanism was changed. All the question weightings, all the markschemes, all the layouts.
At the same time, OFQUAL have also made it harder to get a level 5 than to get a level 8 in history - for a 5 you have to analyse and evaluate, for an 8 you only have to evaluate. In theory at least therefore you can get a level 8 with a one sentence answer, but need three paragraphs for a 5.
And while we are on the subject, the specification was drawn up in such a hurry that I keep finding errors in it. For example, I am meant to teach my students about the university system in England in the aftermath of the Norman Conquest - except there was no university system in England at the Norman conquest or for over a century thereafter (unhelpfully Wikipedia and Oxford University's website both wrongly state that the university was founded in 1096, confusing it with the Abbey Choir School - but the fact a few teenage computer programmers are ignorant f the facts is no excuse for a trained historian getting it wrong).
This is down to Gove and his inability to do things - even things that might be good in practice - slowly and with due regard to logistics. If he were in charge we'd have a transition deal that was far less forensically prepared than one by Davis - and that should not be taken as an endorsement of Davis. He'd probably absent-mindedly declare that all banks need to be based in Loudon instead of London for regulatory purposes and sign off without noticing he's handed over our entire banking sector to the Americans.
The only thing to say in Gove's favour is he is not Nicky Morgan - who is so stupid she thought the head of OFQUAL who oversaw this total shambles would are a good candidate as head of OFSTED, which is now also not unexpectedly collapsing in an undignified heap of chaos, inconsistency and understaffing.0 -
Great article.
Yes, the logic says May won’t go, shouldn’t go, and can’t go.
But at some stage - perhaps in Spring when it is finally clear that transition does in fact mean “vassalage” (as surely we knew it would since the Florence speech!) - one can see an unholy alliance between Boris and the hard Brexit rump to oust her.
May will need to negotiate a figleaf of autonomy during transition. Presumably, the ability to negotiate new trade deals will be dressed up as a concession from the EU.
Hopefully, for May, the hard Brexiters will not realise any such negotiations could not possibly be concluded until the final nature of the UK’s relationship with the EU is clear...0 -
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The issue with Gove is the opposite of that with May. He has so many ideas and innovations he would probably make a poor team manager - though that remains to be proven. I think the media would have a difficult time trying to pigeon-hole him too, which is silly but not irrelevant.Richard_Tyndall said:
You are of course entirely wrong about Gove who is by far the best minister we have had in a very long time. Given how much he has rightly been lauded at Justice and DEFRA and the fact that the education system was frankly not fit for purpose for many years I am afraid I cannot take your comments seriously.ydoethur said:
If it is Michael Gove I will vote Labour, even if the Jezaster is still leading them.Jonathan said:It's going to be Gove, isn't it?
I am now in the run in to new exams at GCSE, designed by Gove. Three weeks ago, the entire assessment mechanism was changed. All the question weightings, all the markschemes, all the layouts.
At the same time, OFQUAL have also made it harder to get a level 5 than to get a level 8 in history - for a 5 you have to analyse and evaluate, for an 8 you only have to evaluate. In theory at least therefore you can get a level 8 with a one sentence answer, but need three paragraphs for a 5.
And while we are on the subject, the specification was drawn up in such a hurry that I keep finding errors in it. For example, I am meant to teach my students about the university system in England in the aftermath of the Norman Conquest - except there was no university system in England at the Norman conquest or for over a century thereafter (unhelpfully Wikipedia and Oxford University's website both wrongly state that the university was founded in 1096, confusing it with the Abbey Choir School - but the fact a few teenage computer programmers are ignorant f the facts is no excuse for a trained historian getting it wrong).
This is down to Gove and his inability to do things - even things that might be good in practice - slowly and with due regard to logistics. If he were in charge we'd have a transition deal that was far less forensically prepared than one by Davis - and that should not be taken as an endorsement of Davis. He'd probably absent-mindedly declare that all banks need to be based in Loudon instead of London for regulatory purposes and sign off without noticing he's handed over our entire banking sector to the Americans.
The only thing to say in Gove's favour is he is not Nicky Morgan - who is so stupid she thought the head of OFQUAL who oversaw this total shambles would are a good candidate as head of OFSTED, which is now also not unexpectedly collapsing in an undignified heap of chaos, inconsistency and understaffing.0 -
Yes. Letters sit on the record until they are actively withdrawn or there is a vote of no confidence.Ally_B said:How does this letters 'thing' work in practice? Once a MP sends in a no confidence letter does that count until they send another one rescinding their vote or Is it valid for three/six/etc months. Would the PM privately be told what the count had got to on a daily basis?
0 -
Just noticed this news:
https://twitter.com/politicshome/status/956995166459650049
He was the future once...0 -
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Agree with this diagnosis, although there isn't a cure for it. Everyone agrees the EU needs change but there's no consensus on what that change should be. While complaining about it, most people don't want the EU to be more democratically accountable because that gives legitimacy and power to the centre at the expense of the nation states. So the EU operates legalistically. It does things according to the rules and ends up being a bit Gormenghast.ydoethur said:
Across the continent the EU outside of a fairly narrow clique is tolerated rather than loved. Tolerated for the many good things it promotes, but not loved because of its posturing and complacency.CarlottaVance said:The Italians could be even more disobliging to the EU:
https://news.sky.com/story/sky-views-italy-could-be-britains-most-influential-ally-during-brexit-11224056
The problem is that the EU sees rejection of its treaty changes, a reluctance to pay more money over and consistently low turnout in EU-wide elections as evidence that they need more integration to bolster its legitimacy. Verhofstadt's famous comment that Brexit shows just how popular the EU is a spectacular example of this peculiar thinking, but Lisbon is perhaps the better one. Or Greece, where the evidence that the single currency imposed by blatantly breaking the rules had ruined the country was blithely ignored and Greece forced to give up more of its sovereignty, the loss of which was partly to blame for the problems, in exchange for a rescue the EU's stupidity and overt politicisation itself had made necessary.
And it is killing the EU. Which given the ramifications should it collapse, and the genuine benefits it does bring and could extend if run correctly, is not a cheering thought.
It's also why the EU won't and cannot do a special deal for the UK. We have never understood that the EU is a multilateral construct and the messy compromise was painfully arrived at. They can't start unpicking it. It's a tragedy for us because multilateralism suits the kind of country we are, especially a rules based, liberal, open economic zone like the EU.0 -
I actually don't think he would be successful as a PM - not because of any fault of his own per se but because of the way he is perceived and caricatured by the media and public at large. He lacks charisma for many which sadly is deemed far more important to people these days than actually being competent or intelligent.david_herdson said:
The issue with Gove is the opposite of that with May. He has so many ideas and innovations he would probably make a poor team manager - though that remains to be proven. I think the media would have a difficult time trying to pigeon-hole him too, which is silly but not irrelevant.0 -
Ironic about Hammond. I remember him as a Redwood supporter when he was first elected in 1997.Fishing said:
Not sure Boris would be either. Hammond is too Europhile to be acceptable to the Party. The others are too unknown.AlastairMeeks said:I understand David Herdson's argument but I disagree. The country urgently needs a leader right now. Almost any of the conceivable candidates would be an improvement.
(Jacob Cream Crackers and Andrea Leadsom being the obvious exceptions)
I think May will stay because there's no realistic alternative. At least until March next year.0 -
I used to work in change management under John Harvey-Jones.FF43 said:
You seriously think Theresa May is *managing* change?Mortimer said:
I used to work in change management.williamglenn said:
When Brexiteers get rid of May the intractable problems will remain intractable.GIN1138 said:Now we hear that UK officials are trying to push for a three year "transition" (obviously in the hope that Jezza wins the 2022 election and keeps us in "transition" indefinitely) now is the time for Brexiteers to move against Theresa May and get rid.
They have nothing to lose as the way it's going there isn't going to be a Brexit under Theresa May.
https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/956928083893850112
People don't like change. Businesses hate change.
But when it is forced upon them by necessity, they get used to it.
You keep finding problems and think that is going to lead to us being involved in a Federal Europe.
Yet you don't seem to see the biggest problem with that - that the British people don't want that.
His method was:
1. Make sure everyone is very unhappy with the status quo.
2. Paint a vivid credible attractive picture of what could be.
3. Show people the first step towards that vision and they will take it.
May has succeeded with step one.
The other method is to see which way the people are marching and walk in front of them waving a big flag. But if they are marching in opposing directions, you have to make a choice.0 -
On the charisma scale I would have thought that Gove's well ahead of Theresa MayRichard_Tyndall said:
I actually don't think he would be successful as a PM - not because of any fault of his own per se but because of the way he is perceived and caricatured by the media and public at large. He lacks charisma for many which sadly is deemed far more important to people these days than actually being competent or intelligent.david_herdson said:
The issue with Gove is the opposite of that with May. He has so many ideas and innovations he would probably make a poor team manager - though that remains to be proven. I think the media would have a difficult time trying to pigeon-hole him too, which is silly but not irrelevant.0 -
We either Brexit on terms set entirely by the EU or we crash out. This was always the choice, but it’s only now the Tory Brexit loons have realised it. Obviously, they would prefer to bring down May and destroy their party, and to inflict huge damage to the economy and on living standards, rather than do “Brussels’ bidding”. The question is, how large is the loon faction inside the Conservative party? For the sake of the country, let’s hope it’s not big enough.0
-
Compared to a pile of manure this pile of garbage doesn't smell as bad.MikeSmithson said:
On the charisma scale I would have thought that Gove's well ahead of Theresa MayRichard_Tyndall said:
I actually don't think he would be successful as a PM - not because of any fault of his own per se but because of the way he is perceived and caricatured by the media and public at large. He lacks charisma for many which sadly is deemed far more important to people these days than actually being competent or intelligent.david_herdson said:
The issue with Gove is the opposite of that with May. He has so many ideas and innovations he would probably make a poor team manager - though that remains to be proven. I think the media would have a difficult time trying to pigeon-hole him too, which is silly but not irrelevant.0 -
Mr. Borough, the post itself is controversial as many just want a single Yorkshire mayor but the government won't postpone or abolish the South Yorkshire mayoral election. I think Jarvis is on the record supporting the all-Yorkshire position. If he got elected that could be a springboard to then win the Yorkshire mayoralty.0
-
Yet another May error was to let this actually become an issue.Scott_P said:
Only 2 presidents since WW2 have made Official State visits to the UK - GW Bush in 2003 and Barack Obama in 2011. In addition Reagan and Clinton addressed Parliament. But otherwise, although there have been plenty of informal visits and visits to attend specific conferences, it is certainly not expected that a US president will visit the UK. May should have kept her mouth shut about it.0 -
I think I agree but that is not really setting the bar very high.MikeSmithson said:
On the charisma scale I would have thought that Gove's well ahead of Theresa MayRichard_Tyndall said:
I actually don't think he would be successful as a PM - not because of any fault of his own per se but because of the way he is perceived and caricatured by the media and public at large. He lacks charisma for many which sadly is deemed far more important to people these days than actually being competent or intelligent.david_herdson said:
The issue with Gove is the opposite of that with May. He has so many ideas and innovations he would probably make a poor team manager - though that remains to be proven. I think the media would have a difficult time trying to pigeon-hole him too, which is silly but not irrelevant.0 -
Gove isn't PM material, but he would , I think make a bold and excellent CoE. Hammond has proved too timid and unimaginative in economy policy.MikeSmithson said:
On the charisma scale I would have thought that Gove's well ahead of Theresa MayRichard_Tyndall said:
I actually don't think he would be successful as a PM - not because of any fault of his own per se but because of the way he is perceived and caricatured by the media and public at large. He lacks charisma for many which sadly is deemed far more important to people these days than actually being competent or intelligent.david_herdson said:
The issue with Gove is the opposite of that with May. He has so many ideas and innovations he would probably make a poor team manager - though that remains to be proven. I think the media would have a difficult time trying to pigeon-hole him too, which is silly but not irrelevant.0 -
The problem we face now is that there was no step 2 so the smart and the young are creating their own vision. As a result we are heading to chaotic change.Barnesian said:
I used to work in change management under John Harvey-Jones.FF43 said:
You seriously think Theresa May is *managing* change?Mortimer said:
I used to work in change management.williamglenn said:
When Brexiteers get rid of May the intractable problems will remain intractable.GIN1138 said:Now we hear that UK officials are trying to push for a three year "transition" (obviously in the hope that Jezza wins the 2022 election and keeps us in "transition" indefinitely) now is the time for Brexiteers to move against Theresa May and get rid.
They have nothing to lose as the way it's going there isn't going to be a Brexit under Theresa May.
https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/956928083893850112
People don't like change. Businesses hate change.
But when it is forced upon them by necessity, they get used to it.
You keep finding problems and think that is going to lead to us being involved in a Federal Europe.
Yet you don't seem to see the biggest problem with that - that the British people don't want that.
His method was:
1. Make sure everyone is very unhappy with the status quo.
2. Paint a vivid credible attractive picture of what could be.
3. Show people the first step towards that vision and they will take it.
May has succeeded with step one.
The other method is to see which way the people are marching and walk in front of them waving a big flag. But if they are marching in opposing directions, you have to make a choice.
0 -
Sad though I would be to see him leave his curent role, Gove would be an excellent Chancellor. I believe that moving Hammond out of Number 11 is now essential for May to stay in Number 10.Slackbladder said:
Gove isn't PM material, but he would , I think make a bold and excellent CoE. Hammond has proved too timid and unimaginative in economy policy.MikeSmithson said:
On the charisma scale I would have thought that Gove's well ahead of Theresa MayRichard_Tyndall said:
I actually don't think he would be successful as a PM - not because of any fault of his own per se but because of the way he is perceived and caricatured by the media and public at large. He lacks charisma for many which sadly is deemed far more important to people these days than actually being competent or intelligent.david_herdson said:
The issue with Gove is the opposite of that with May. He has so many ideas and innovations he would probably make a poor team manager - though that remains to be proven. I think the media would have a difficult time trying to pigeon-hole him too, which is silly but not irrelevant.0 -
Gove or Boris or any other prominent Brexiteer pretty much guarantees Labour 40% of the vote - pre or post Brexit. The Tories would be much better advised to skip a generation and put new talent in front of the public. The problem is that it’s impossible to do because May’s only criteria for senior government appointments is how they help her to stay in place. Give someone like Jonny Mercer two years in cabinet, put him up against Corbyn and the Tories would romp home.0
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Alternatively every single 21st Century President has had an Official State visit to the UK.Richard_Tyndall said:
Yet another May error was to let this actually become an issue.Scott_P said:
Only 2 presidents since WW2 have made Official State visits to the UK - GW Bush in 2003 and Barack Obama in 2011. In addition Reagan and Clinton addressed Parliament. But otherwise, although there have been plenty of informal visits and visits to attend specific conferences, it is certainly not expected that a US president will visit the UK. May should have kept her mouth shut about it.
Trump wouldn't have wanted to be the first not to given the recent history that Dubya and Obama both got one.0 -
The problem with Gove as chancellor is he'd probably want to implement a root and branch reform of taxation (and for all I know, rotate the entire United Kingdom 90 degrees to the left) and HMG just doesn't have the bandwidth to spare. Mind you, I don't think HMG has the bandwidth to walk and chew gum at the same time.MarqueeMark said:
Sad though I would be to see him leave his curent role, Gove would be an excellent Chancellor. I believe that moving Hammond out of Number 11 is now essential for May to stay in Number 10.Slackbladder said:
Gove isn't PM material, but he would , I think make a bold and excellent CoE. Hammond has proved too timid and unimaginative in economy policy.MikeSmithson said:
On the charisma scale I would have thought that Gove's well ahead of Theresa MayRichard_Tyndall said:
I actually don't think he would be successful as a PM - not because of any fault of his own per se but because of the way he is perceived and caricatured by the media and public at large. He lacks charisma for many which sadly is deemed far more important to people these days than actually being competent or intelligent.david_herdson said:
The issue with Gove is the opposite of that with May. He has so many ideas and innovations he would probably make a poor team manager - though that remains to be proven. I think the media would have a difficult time trying to pigeon-hole him too, which is silly but not irrelevant.0 -
The Bloomberg Innovation Index 2018. Scroll to the bottom of the article to see where the UK stands:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-01-22/south-korea-tops-global-innovation-ranking-again-as-u-s-falls
Look how many EU member states are above us. Look, too, at individual factors and observe it is only the strength of our tertiary sector that keeps us close to the top 20.
Decisions taken at home - in business and government - determine our fate now, just as they have always done.0 -
Wouldn't the answer for him to visit the UK but not come to London? I expect any demos would be much smaller anywhere else - and barely noticeable.Richard_Tyndall said:
Yet another May error was to let this actually become an issue.Scott_P said:
Only 2 presidents since WW2 have made Official State visits to the UK - GW Bush in 2003 and Barack Obama in 2011. In addition Reagan and Clinton addressed Parliament. But otherwise, although there have been plenty of informal visits and visits to attend specific conferences, it is certainly not expected that a US president will visit the UK. May should have kept her mouth shut about it.0 -
They both made working visits before they made state ones.Philip_Thompson said:
Alternatively every single 21st Century President has had an Official State visit to the UK.Richard_Tyndall said:
Yet another May error was to let this actually become an issue.Scott_P said:
Only 2 presidents since WW2 have made Official State visits to the UK - GW Bush in 2003 and Barack Obama in 2011. In addition Reagan and Clinton addressed Parliament. But otherwise, although there have been plenty of informal visits and visits to attend specific conferences, it is certainly not expected that a US president will visit the UK. May should have kept her mouth shut about it.
Trump wouldn't have wanted to be the first not to given the recent history that Dubya and Obama both got one.
0 -
Put your finger on ithamiltonace said:
The problem we face now is that there was no step 2 [Paint a vivid credible attractive picture of what could be] so the smart and the young are creating their own vision. As a result we are heading to chaotic change.Barnesian said:
I used to work in change management under John Harvey-Jones.FF43 said:
You seriously think Theresa May is *managing* change?Mortimer said:
I used to work in change management.
People don't like change. Businesses hate change.
But when it is forced upon them by necessity, they get used to it.
You keep finding problems and think that is going to lead to us being involved in a Federal Europe.
Yet you don't seem to see the biggest problem with that - that the British people don't want that.
His method was:
1. Make sure everyone is very unhappy with the status quo.
2. Paint a vivid credible attractive picture of what could be.
3. Show people the first step towards that vision and they will take it.
May has succeeded with step one.
The other method is to see which way the people are marching and walk in front of them waving a big flag. But if they are marching in opposing directions, you have to make a choice.
And FPT:FF43 said:The stalemate is because the realistic alternatives to EU membership are highly unpalatable: a decade long haggle leading to at best a mediocre result (Canada), doing what we're told (Norway) or outright chaos (WTO).
Overturning a democratically arrived at decision to reject objectively the best option (membership of the EU) is also unpalatable.
No wonder Theresa May doesn't want to talk about it.0 -
Jeez - another thing we agree on. This is becoming a habit now!!Richard_Tyndall said:
Yet another May error was to let this actually become an issue.Scott_P said:
Only 2 presidents since WW2 have made Official State visits to the UK - GW Bush in 2003 and Barack Obama in 2011. In addition Reagan and Clinton addressed Parliament. But otherwise, although there have been plenty of informal visits and visits to attend specific conferences, it is certainly not expected that a US president will visit the UK. May should have kept her mouth shut about it.
0 -
Good! Someone has to eventually do it.John_M said:
The problem with Gove as chancellor is he'd probably want to implement a root and branch reform of taxation (and for all I know, rotate the entire United Kingdom 90 degrees to the left) and HMG just doesn't have the bandwidth to spare. Mind you, I don't think HMG has the bandwidth to walk and chew gum at the same time.MarqueeMark said:
Sad though I would be to see him leave his curent role, Gove would be an excellent Chancellor. I believe that moving Hammond out of Number 11 is now essential for May to stay in Number 10.Slackbladder said:
Gove isn't PM material, but he would , I think make a bold and excellent CoE. Hammond has proved too timid and unimaginative in economy policy.MikeSmithson said:
On the charisma scale I would have thought that Gove's well ahead of Theresa MayRichard_Tyndall said:
I actually don't think he would be successful as a PM - not because of any fault of his own per se but because of the way he is perceived and caricatured by the media and public at large. He lacks charisma for many which sadly is deemed far more important to people these days than actually being competent or intelligent.david_herdson said:
The issue with Gove is the opposite of that with May. He has so many ideas and innovations he would probably make a poor team manager - though that remains to be proven. I think the media would have a difficult time trying to pigeon-hole him too, which is silly but not irrelevant.
Maybe we could finally get Income Tax and National Insurance simplified and merged.0 -
He's keen on Scotland.brendan16 said:
Wouldn't the answer for him to visit the UK but not come to London? I expect any demos would be much smaller anywhere else - and barely noticeable.Richard_Tyndall said:
Yet another May error was to let this actually become an issue.Scott_P said:
Only 2 presidents since WW2 have made Official State visits to the UK - GW Bush in 2003 and Barack Obama in 2011. In addition Reagan and Clinton addressed Parliament. But otherwise, although there have been plenty of informal visits and visits to attend specific conferences, it is certainly not expected that a US president will visit the UK. May should have kept her mouth shut about it.0 -
I suspect you are indulging in some wishful thinking in your first sentence. Corbyn vs Johnson would be a contest of minnows and I think we would all be hard pushed to predict the result.SouthamObserver said:Gove or Boris or any other prominent Brexiteer pretty much guarantees Labour 40% of the vote - pre or post Brexit. The Tories would be much better advised to skip a generation and put new talent in front of the public. The problem is that it’s impossible to do because May’s only criteria for senior government appointments is how they help her to stay in place. Give someone like Jonny Mercer two years in cabinet, put him up against Corbyn and the Tories would romp home.
I do however agree with your proposed cure for the Tory party.0 -
He always reminds me of Harry Enfield so I find it impossible to take him seriously. Not his fault he looks that way but I think it is an awful disadvantage.Richard_Tyndall said:
I actually don't think he would be successful as a PM - not because of any fault of his own per se but because of the way he is perceived and caricatured by the media and public at large. He lacks charisma for many which sadly is deemed far more important to people these days than actually being competent or intelligent.david_herdson said:
The issue with Gove is the opposite of that with May. He has so many ideas and innovations he would probably make a poor team manager - though that remains to be proven. I think the media would have a difficult time trying to pigeon-hole him too, which is silly but not irrelevant.0 -
Almost everything Gove tries to do is very laudable, and largely entirely necessary. There is a case for a root and branch taxation reform.John_M said:
The problem with Gove as chancellor is he'd probably want to implement a root and branch reform of taxation (and for all I know, rotate the entire United Kingdom 90 degrees to the left) and HMG just doesn't have the bandwidth to spare. Mind you, I don't think HMG has the bandwidth to walk and chew gum at the same time.MarqueeMark said:
Sad though I would be to see him leave his curent role, Gove would be an excellent Chancellor. I believe that moving Hammond out of Number 11 is now essential for May to stay in Number 10.Slackbladder said:
Gove isn't PM material, but he would , I think make a bold and excellent CoE. Hammond has proved too timid and unimaginative in economy policy.MikeSmithson said:
On the charisma scale I would have thought that Gove's well ahead of Theresa MayRichard_Tyndall said:
I actually don't think he would be successful as a PM - not because of any fault of his own per se but because of the way he is perceived and caricatured by the media and public at large. He lacks charisma for many which sadly is deemed far more important to people these days than actually being competent or intelligent.david_herdson said:
The issue with Gove is the opposite of that with May. He has so many ideas and innovations he would probably make a poor team manager - though that remains to be proven. I think the media would have a difficult time trying to pigeon-hole him too, which is silly but not irrelevant.
But, as you say, not right at this moment.0 -
Putting a prominent Brexiteer in charge of the Tories drives Remain voters to Labour, in my view. Tories and libertarians like Gove. Others are less keen.Richard_Tyndall said:
I suspect you are indulging in some wishful thinking in your first sentence. Corbyn vs Johnson would be a contest of minnows and I think we would all be hard pushed to predict the result.SouthamObserver said:Gove or Boris or any other prominent Brexiteer pretty much guarantees Labour 40% of the vote - pre or post Brexit. The Tories would be much better advised to skip a generation and put new talent in front of the public. The problem is that it’s impossible to do because May’s only criteria for senior government appointments is how they help her to stay in place. Give someone like Jonny Mercer two years in cabinet, put him up against Corbyn and the Tories would romp home.
I do however agree with your proposed cure for the Tory party.
0 -
Seems quite a subjective analysis and what really drags our score down is manufacturing value added and poor productivity which are ongoing problems and speaks volumes.SouthamObserver said:The Bloomberg Innovation Index 2018. Scroll to the bottom of the article to see where the UK stands:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-01-22/south-korea-tops-global-innovation-ranking-again-as-u-s-falls
Look how many EU member states are above us. Look, too, at individual factors and observe it is only the strength of our tertiary sector that keeps us close to the top 20.
Decisions taken at home - in business and government - determine our fate now, just as they have always done.
We still outrank China, Russia, Canada, New Zealand snd Australia and more than two thirds of EU members. Aren't those nations quite outward looking in different ways?0 -
You think?brendan16 said:
Wouldn't the answer for him to visit the UK but not come to London? I expect any demos would be much smaller anywhere else - and barely noticeable.Richard_Tyndall said:
Yet another May error was to let this actually become an issue.Scott_P said:
Only 2 presidents since WW2 have made Official State visits to the UK - GW Bush in 2003 and Barack Obama in 2011. In addition Reagan and Clinton addressed Parliament. But otherwise, although there have been plenty of informal visits and visits to attend specific conferences, it is certainly not expected that a US president will visit the UK. May should have kept her mouth shut about it.
Don could always try his happy hunting ground north of the border, no one can ever be bothered to travel that far, and we're famously placid.
'THE most graphic images of the events surrounding the G8 summit ten years ago show angry rioters clashing with baton-wielding police officers on the streets of the Capital. But just as dramatic are the pictures of a quarter of a million people filling the city centre as they march through Edinburgh in bright sunshine, calling on the world leaders to “Make Poverty History”.
https://tinyurl.com/ybkt7gnd0 -
We are the lowest ranked northern European country. That’s poor - in particular, when you bear in mind the strength of our universities. Something is going badly wrong.brendan16 said:
Seems quite a subjective analysis and what really drags our score down is manufacturing value added and poor productivity which are ongoing problems and speaks volumes.SouthamObserver said:The Bloomberg Innovation Index 2018. Scroll to the bottom of the article to see where the UK stands:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-01-22/south-korea-tops-global-innovation-ranking-again-as-u-s-falls
Look how many EU member states are above us. Look, too, at individual factors and observe it is only the strength of our tertiary sector that keeps us close to the top 20.
Decisions taken at home - in business and government - determine our fate now, just as they have always done.
We still outrank China, Russia, Canada, New Zealand snd Australia and more than two thirds of EU members. Aren't those nations quite outward looking in different ways?
0 -
There's never a "right at this moment" opportunity, there's always a reason not to do it.Mortimer said:
Almost everything Gove tries to do is very laudable, and largely entirely necessary. There is a case for a root and branch taxation reform.John_M said:
The problem with Gove as chancellor is he'd probably want to implement a root and branch reform of taxation (and for all I know, rotate the entire United Kingdom 90 degrees to the left) and HMG just doesn't have the bandwidth to spare. Mind you, I don't think HMG has the bandwidth to walk and chew gum at the same time.MarqueeMark said:
Sad though I would be to see him leave his curent role, Gove would be an excellent Chancellor. I believe that moving Hammond out of Number 11 is now essential for May to stay in Number 10.Slackbladder said:
Gove isn't PM material, but he would , I think make a bold and excellent CoE. Hammond has proved too timid and unimaginative in economy policy.MikeSmithson said:
On the charisma scale I would have thought that Gove's well ahead of Theresa MayRichard_Tyndall said:
I actually don't think he would be successful as a PM - not because of any fault of his own per se but because of the way he is perceived and caricatured by the media and public at large. He lacks charisma for many which sadly is deemed far more important to people these days than actually being competent or intelligent.david_herdson said:
The issue with Gove is the opposite of that with May. He has so many ideas and innovations he would probably make a poor team manager - though that remains to be proven. I think the media would have a difficult time trying to pigeon-hole him too, which is silly but not irrelevant.
But, as you say, not right at this moment.0 -
I think May survives for now, with polls still almost neck and neck between the Tories and Labour there is no urgent political need for a change and it would be gross self indulgence as David Herdson says for the Tories to indulge in a leadership election which will cut down even more the limited timespan for the country to agree a Brexit deal with the EU0
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Agreed.SouthamObserver said:Gove or Boris or any other prominent Brexiteer pretty much guarantees Labour 40% of the vote - pre or post Brexit. The Tories would be much better advised to skip a generation and put new talent in front of the public. The problem is that it’s impossible to do because May’s only criteria for senior government appointments is how they help her to stay in place. Give someone like Jonny Mercer two years in cabinet, put him up against Corbyn and the Tories would romp home.
0 -
Perhaps the visit could be confined to the ancestral homeland of Lewis. A triumphal homecoming processing down Stornaway's main street would be just the thing to massage his ego.Theuniondivvie said:
You think?brendan16 said:
Wouldn't the answer for him to visit the UK but not come to London? I expect any demos would be much smaller anywhere else - and barely noticeable.Richard_Tyndall said:
Yet another May error was to let this actually become an issue.Scott_P said:
Only 2 presidents since WW2 have made Official State visits to the UK - GW Bush in 2003 and Barack Obama in 2011. In addition Reagan and Clinton addressed Parliament. But otherwise, although there have been plenty of informal visits and visits to attend specific conferences, it is certainly not expected that a US president will visit the UK. May should have kept her mouth shut about it.
Don could always try his happy hunting ground north of the border, no one can ever be bothered to travel that far, and we're famously placid.
'THE most graphic images of the events surrounding the G8 summit ten years ago show angry rioters clashing with baton-wielding police officers on the streets of the Capital. But just as dramatic are the pictures of a quarter of a million people filling the city centre as they march through Edinburgh in bright sunshine, calling on the world leaders to “Make Poverty History”.
https://tinyurl.com/ybkt7gnd0 -
For the love of God, enough with this Tory self-indulgence! There’s a country to run.
I was up early to go to New Covent Garden Market. Interesting to see the wholesale business behind the plants and flowers we see in our shops. So many of them come from Holland or via it from Africa and others. What will happen to this trade post-Brexit without a sensible resolution? Multiply this 000’s of times for any business you care to mention. This is what the government needs to concentrate on. Not all this granstanding, ego stroking and cat fighting.
Thanks for the header @DavidHerdson. Your comment about Mrs May not having left psychologically the role of Home Secretary is very acute.0 -
I don't think the cailleachs are very keen on pussy grabbers. Trump being pursued down Cromwell St by a bunch of old ladies in pink pussy hats alongside a sprinkling of Wee Free ministers would certainly be a fine sight though.ThomasNashe said:
Perhaps the visit could be confined to the ancestral homeland of Lewis. A triumphal procession down Stornaway's main street would be just the thing to massage his ego.Theuniondivvie said:
You think?brendan16 said:
Wouldn't the answer for him to visit the UK but not come to London? I expect any demos would be much smaller anywhere else - and barely noticeable.Richard_Tyndall said:
Yet another May error was to let this actually become an issue.Scott_P said:
Only 2 presidents since WW2 have made Official State visits to the UK - GW Bush in 2003 and Barack Obama in 2011. In addition Reagan and Clinton addressed Parliament. But otherwise, although there have been plenty of informal visits and visits to attend specific conferences, it is certainly not expected that a US president will visit the UK. May should have kept her mouth shut about it.
Don could always try his happy hunting ground north of the border, no one can ever be bothered to travel that far, and we're famously placid.
'THE most graphic images of the events surrounding the G8 summit ten years ago show angry rioters clashing with baton-wielding police officers on the streets of the Capital. But just as dramatic are the pictures of a quarter of a million people filling the city centre as they march through Edinburgh in bright sunshine, calling on the world leaders to “Make Poverty History”.
https://tinyurl.com/ybkt7gnd0 -
Which was why her reshuffle was so poorly received by MPs - given she is going, almost certainly within 18 months, it had to be used promote those who were the someone like Jonny Mercer brigade. Instead, she circled the wagons. Not what the Party needed.SouthamObserver said:May’s only criteria for senior government appointments is how they help her to stay in place. Give someone like Jonny Mercer two years in cabinet, put him up against Corbyn and the Tories would romp home.
The case for letting Boris have a go now is that he would have the opportunity to make that wholesale change. And if he proves to be not up to the job, then one of those given a leg up can take over before 2022.
The case against is that Boris might not be the man to be given Brexit as his first massive challenge in Government.....
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On Topic: Matthew Parris is sticking the knife in, quite a good read:
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/comment/one-well-aimed-speech-could-topple-mrs-may-dbjqgd00m0 -
Yes, but a little like Osborne, it is the charisma of the pantomime villain, not the vote winning kind.MikeSmithson said:
On the charisma scale I would have thought that Gove's well ahead of Theresa MayRichard_Tyndall said:
I actually don't think he would be successful as a PM - not because of any fault of his own per se but because of the way he is perceived and caricatured by the media and public at large. He lacks charisma for many which sadly is deemed far more important to people these days than actually being competent or intelligent.david_herdson said:
The issue with Gove is the opposite of that with May. He has so many ideas and innovations he would probably make a poor team manager - though that remains to be proven. I think the media would have a difficult time trying to pigeon-hole him too, which is silly but not irrelevant.
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Why not?MarqueeMark said:
Which was why her reshuffle was so poorly received by MPs - given she is going, almost certainly within 18 months, it had to be used promote those who were the someone like Jonny Mercer brigade. Instead, she circled the wagons. Not what the Party needed.SouthamObserver said:May’s only criteria for senior government appointments is how they help her to stay in place. Give someone like Jonny Mercer two years in cabinet, put him up against Corbyn and the Tories would romp home.
The case for letting Boris have a go now is that he would have the opportunity to make that wholesale change. And if he proves to be not up to the job, then one of those given a leg up can take over before 2022.
The case against is that Boris might not be the man to be given Brexit as his first massive challenge in Government.....
Boris would be the perfect man to be given Brexit in a "Nixon goes to China" kind of way. He's the public's face of Brexit and whatever deal he agrees (and the Civil Service will ensure a deal gets agreed) will be more acceptable as a result.0 -
And, yet, we secure more entrepreneur start-ups than almost the whole rest of the EU put together, and four times more than France & Germany.SouthamObserver said:
We are the lowest ranked northern European country. That’s poor - in particular, when you bear in mind the strength of our universities. Something is going badly wrong.brendan16 said:
Seems quite a subjective analysis and what really drags our score down is manufacturing value added and poor productivity which are ongoing problems and speaks volumes.SouthamObserver said:The Bloomberg Innovation Index 2018. Scroll to the bottom of the article to see where the UK stands:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-01-22/south-korea-tops-global-innovation-ranking-again-as-u-s-falls
Look how many EU member states are above us. Look, too, at individual factors and observe it is only the strength of our tertiary sector that keeps us close to the top 20.
Decisions taken at home - in business and government - determine our fate now, just as they have always done.
We still outrank China, Russia, Canada, New Zealand snd Australia and more than two thirds of EU members. Aren't those nations quite outward looking in different ways?
Our problem isn't in starting great new businesses. Its in developing and retaining them:
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/british-tech-start-ups-lead-europe-as-funding-rises-to-3bn-in-record-year-8zfbgkwmw
https://www.ft.com/content/cb56d86c-88d6-11e7-afd2-74b8ecd34d3b0 -
Or maybe not, as I have consistently said we need a more hypothecated National Insurance focused on the state pension, contributory JSA and increases in healthcare funding not just lumping NI with tax which would give Corbyn free rein for tax rise after tax risePhilip_Thompson said:
Good! Someone has to eventually do it.John_M said:
The problem with Gove as chancellor is he'd probably want to implement a root and branch reform of taxation (and for all I know, rotate the entire United Kingdom 90 degrees to the left) and HMG just doesn't have the bandwidth to spare. Mind you, I don't think HMG has the bandwidth to walk and chew gum at the same time.MarqueeMark said:
Sad though I would be to see him leave his curent role, Gove would be an excellent Chancellor. I believe that moving Hammond out of Number 11 is now essential for May to stay in Number 10.Slackbladder said:
Gove isn't PM material, but he would , I think make a bold and excellent CoE. Hammond has proved too timid and unimaginative in economy policy.MikeSmithson said:
On the charisma scale I would have thought that Gove's well ahead of Theresa MayRichard_Tyndall said:
I actually don't think he would be successful as a PM - not because of any fault of his own per se but because of the way he is perceived and caricatured by the media and public at large. He lacks charisma for many which sadly is deemed far more important to people these days than actually being competent or intelligent.david_herdson said:
The issue with Gove is the opposite of that with May. He has so many ideas and innovations he would probably make a poor team manager - though that remains to be proven. I think the media would have a difficult time trying to pigeon-hole him too, which is silly but not irrelevant.
Maybe we could finally get Income Tax and National Insurance simplified and merged.0 -
The Times is reporting that May has cancelled preparations for her planned Brexit speech because of cabinet splits. Where’s the leadership?HYUFD said:I think May survives for now, with polls still almost neck and neck between the Tories and Labour there is no urgent political need for a change and it would be gross self indulgence as David Herdson says for the Tories to indulge in a leadership election which will cut down even more the limited timespan for the country to agree a Brexit deal with the EU
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There are no guarantees.SouthamObserver said:Gove or Boris or any other prominent Brexiteer pretty much guarantees Labour 40% of the vote - pre or post Brexit. The Tories would be much better advised to skip a generation and put new talent in front of the public. The problem is that it’s impossible to do because May’s only criteria for senior government appointments is how they help her to stay in place. Give someone like Jonny Mercer two years in cabinet, put him up against Corbyn and the Tories would romp home.
I remember hearing similar things about May in 2015 and 2016, due to her perceived hard line on immigration and the police. She was a "new Thatcher". How we laugh, now.
I think Gove is capable of learning, growth and public rehabilitation. Boris, not so much.0 -
A new Tory leader might scrape a small majority against Corbyn a la Major in 1992 at best, it is highly unlikely any new Tory leader will win a landslide whether Mercer or any otherSouthamObserver said:Gove or Boris or any other prominent Brexiteer pretty much guarantees Labour 40% of the vote - pre or post Brexit. The Tories would be much better advised to skip a generation and put new talent in front of the public. The problem is that it’s impossible to do because May’s only criteria for senior government appointments is how they help her to stay in place. Give someone like Jonny Mercer two years in cabinet, put him up against Corbyn and the Tories would romp home.
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