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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The 2013 SPOTY election: The value bet could be that Murray
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The 2013 SPOTY election: The value bet could be that Murray doesn’t get it
The BBC’s Sports Personality of the Year (SPOTY) is, like X Factor, Strictly Come Dancing, Big Brother or Eurovision, very much an election. As with all elections, working out the likely chances comes down to correctly understanding four things: the candidates, the campaigns, the voters, and the electoral system.
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The key to things like FGM is not covering it up. Like the grooming gangs and the gang-ruled inner city hell estates senior plod won't do anything about it unless they are certain their careers won't be ended by the PC establishment if they do.
Two threads ago there was a mini-quiz about what connected three people who bla-bla-bla, or whatever it was.
As a variation, here is an arithmetic quiz. Connect the numbers using standard arithmetical operations, to make each line equal 6. You're not allowed to write in any extra numbers, so (for example) you can't do a little 2 to make "squared", and you can't do a little 3 to make a cube-root sign. :
0 0 0 = 6
1 1 1 = 6
2 2 2 = 6
3 3 3 = 6
4 4 4 = 6
5 5 5 = 6
6 6 6 = 6
7 7 7 = 6
8 8 8 = 6
9 9 9 = 6
Can I just say I am completely Mandela'd out. I think I'll be going for a walk or watching streaming TV today.
Anyway I've laid off my £30 stake on the draw from last night.
Aus +19.57
Eng +21.85
Draw -1.50 now.
Just to test the rules for your maths puzzle.
0 0 0 = 6
(Cos(0)+Cos(0)+Cos(0))!=6
The! is the factorial symbol.
I assume a wicket has gone judging by the betfair odds movement.
(COS(0) +COS(0) + 0!)! = 6
(1 +1+ 1)! = 6
(2 +(2/2))! = 6
(3 *(3/3))! = 6
(4 -(4/4))! = 6
5+ (5/5) = 6
6* 6 /6 = 6
7 - (7/7) = 6
(SQRT(8 + (8/8)))! = 6
SQRT(9*9) - SQRT(9) = 6
Murray is probably the No 3 tennis player in the world whereas Chris Froome could well go down as an all time great in cycling when the history books are written. Of course he needs to win more Tour De Frances first but I can see him equalling Hinault's record. He will never match Mercx as I can't see him winning a World championships.
Mr. Observer, wash your mouth out with soap, young man! I thought the article was very interesting. I've put a few pounds on Farah, but (whilst financially delighted if he wins) I think Murray deserves it by a country mile.
FPT: Miss Cyclefree, you're very welcome. We seem to be drifting towards an increasing narrowing of freedom, whereby more actions are obligatory or forbidden, and we're (or the metropolitan political clowns who govern us) losing the common sense ability to disapprove of something without wanting to pass a law making it illegal.
Rowan Atkinson's right. We must be allowed to insult other people.
You must be a real killjoy at parties, relentlessly negative about pretty much anything and everything.
No word on who was behind it.
One technical point I'm not sure of. I know the awards beyond the main prize are made by panels of experts but I don't know if this is the same panel for each or there are individual panels for the various awards. Obviously, the notion that someone might stand a better chance for one award if their team doesn't win another only applies if the decision-makers know what's gone on elsewhere.
It'd be good if Red Bull cocked up their car next year. Unlikely, but they did miss the double-DRS in 2009, and will miss Webber's technical feedback. In addition, Mercedes could be a real threat in 2014.
All of the sports mentioned have been reported as being in difficulty and/or, of having funding reduced.
In Edinburgh, one of our long established golf courses has just closed due to having a membership of 800 five years ago, had less than 300. Reports are coming in that another local course is considering going the same route due to a similar fall in membership, with a lot of courses in Scotland in financial difficulties.
Swimming and tennis losing sports funding due to lack of results. There was a report on TV the other day of a lack of use at the Dunblane indoor tennis center (you might need to think why that is important).
To make the point, for some of the PBpendants, participation is taking part, supporting is watching as a form of entertainment.
Golf is monstrously expensive. Swimmers under-achieved significantly at the Olympics. Tennis is a bit odder, as, although we're not exactly the top nation, we've got one of the stars of the men's game and Laura Robson has been putting in decent performances.
If he's won it twice already, Brelsford probably won't win again. Could be a Lions double, with Gatland getting the coach award; though Fergie might have a shout on the basis that he can't get lifetime achievement again. Moyes, who's not a bad manager at all, is showing what an achievement it was for Fergie to manage Utd to the league last season. Same players, very different results.
Next JackW Chrimbo Quiz Question coming up ....
http://news.opinium.co.uk/survey-results/two-horse-race-sports-personality
I hadn't seen this at the time I wrote my article but it does bear out my thinking (and certainly reinforces the value with Mo).
One caveat: the electorate for SPOTY is by definition self-selecting. Polls taken of a balanced sample will therefore not necessarily be representative in this case: those who care count more.
I'm genuinely surprised Farah's such a strong contender, though.
It understates Murray's achievement to go back to Wade. The wait for a male WImbledon winner was a lot longer than that. The fact he achieved it despite only being the third best tennis player in the world (not a small achievement that in itself) makes the achievement all the more remarkable in my book.
Mo should have won last year. He is a true great but I don't think this will be his year either.
It's the turn of Labour this morning so here we go :
Who are these three Labour worthies and what historic post links them all :
a. Was he still platting his hair as leader. No ice axe required.
b. A French Lieutenants Woman's father in law
c. Thelma had become a bit of a crow for some years.
Now a piece of idiocy by KP. Bit unlucky but really.
McCoy should surely get the lifetime achievement award for his 3000 winners? Or is tha for retired sportsmen? Getting to 3000 was more of a lifetime achievement than a particularly good season for AP.
Really though Murray deserves to get the award, although I agree w Easterross that he doesn't get such good press as an Englishman would. To be fair I find getting excited about a 'Brit' finally winning Wimbledon a bit contrived.... If a young SE England man came through to challenge him there's no doubt who the public would support
Oh dear England collapse in full flow
Djokovic's first Grand Slam came beating Tsonga (Federer beat him in the first final).
Nadal's was beating Puerta.
Federer's was beating Philippoussis. In fact, Federer won his first seven Grand Slam finals, against six different opponents, and only met one of the other big three in the eighth (losing to Nadal at the French Open).
Sorry, this has become a bit rambly. But I think that, fully fit, Murray is a match for anyone today.
Murray's great strengths are his returns and his speed of reaction but his movement around the court and most days his service are not in the same class as the big two. Still a very, very fine player though.
Yet I know Spurs fans who were born around that time and have that sense of not living up to whattheyaresupposed to be achieving.
Everton fans have tasted glory in that time, but I dont getthe impression theythink theyare being let down, when theyfinish 7th or8th....maybe I just don't know any
On consecutive mornings, I woke up to see Australia had leads of 500+, even after England had batted. Good job Johnston had been such a naughty boy that he was left out in the summer.
Like the nomination for team of he year, is it still possible to vote?
He should be a shoo in for SPOTY!!!
Tennis requires fitness of a very different sort. But which one is fitter? I'd say the cyclist.
Pedant's note, don't very long odds suggest a huge price rather than the measly one for Murray to win SPOTY?
Long odds on is a small price
Odds on is shorter than even money
Odds against is longer than even money
In the all time PL table, we're 5th:
http://www.statto.com/football/stats/england/premier-league/all-time-table/pl-years
Our support base was (no longer is, sadly) as big as Arsenal's and way bigger than Chelsea's. But in the 1980s we got Alan Sugar; Arsenal got David Dein. Then a few years later Chelsea got Roman Abramovitch after Ken Bates bankrupted them. That, I would argue, is the difference. And Spurs fans pay as much as Arsenal and Chelsea fans to go to games.
http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2013/12/five-years-of-betting.html
Spurs for the Quadruple baby!
Weirdly Spurs for the league are best priced 66-1, yet Liverpool (sans Gerrard, Sturridge) who we could be level with by Sunday night are 9-1.
If Spurs win then those will change big-style.. if only Liverpool drifting.
Our big squad, busy calendar = the next 3 weeks will show if that's the making of us or not.
The silver lining in this series for England is that Australia are doing it largely on the back of a bowling attack that is coming to the end of its effectiveness. Of the fasties, Siddle is the only one under 30 - and he's 29. A few of the batsmen are in their 30s too, as is Brad Haddin. So this is not an Australian team that is built to last. They are going to have to make big changes over the coming years.