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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Peston suggests that Boris might be preparing the ground to flounce out of the cabinet
In an interesting Facebook post under the heading ““Is Boris preparing to flounce out of the cabinet?” Robert Peston ponders the question of whether we are seeing the Foreign Secretary prepare the ground for a bid at the leadership.
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First. Obviously.0
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I can certainly see the reasoning but given how turbulent things can be, I've decided against sticking my toe in the water.0
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I backed him at 5s after his Telegraph article. It's been a poor bet. I think he's still available at 10s on Bet365 which is decent odds...0
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It's possible but unlikely. Seriously destabilising a government that is struggling to deliver Brexit would win Boris very few friends. Its possible that he might fundamentally object to aspects of the soft Brexit we are heading towards but again I think that is unlikely too.0
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In other news, Pence is treading a dangerous path calling Ms Daniels a liar.
I don't think anyone really wants this to go to court....
http://www.intouchweekly.com/posts/stormy-daniels-full-interview-151788
I can definitely describe his junk perfectly, if I ever have to.0 -
It does feel like testing the water......bit like Grant Shapps' limp attempt back in the Autumn0
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Theresa May should have sacked Boris Johnson first. He has astonished no one with his ingratitude.0
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Cilic breaks.0
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Didn’t also Peston have three sources telling him Damian Green was going to be cleared.0
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Sounds more like anti-Boris spin by denouncing anything he says as a flounce or leadership bid.0
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The problem is not really Boris, the problem is May. As Home Secretary no news was good news. Quieten things down, keep stories out of the press, say as little as possible, give non answers in every interview, she perfected all these techniques and they are largely good ones for a Home Secretary. But they are disastrous for a PM.
She should be making the weather, not having her leaky craft swamped by Boris splashing about. She has no vision, no ideas, no concept of how to use or deal with the media. She is conscientious, honest, diligent and reasonably bright. But she is absolutely useless as a politician in the modern age.0 -
Perhaps these rumours are coming from Theresa's people, to either flush him out or make him look like Michael Portillo when he fails to act.TheScreamingEagles said:Didn’t also Peston have three sources telling him Damian Green was going to be cleared.
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Is it normal to brief the newspapers in advance of your plans for a showdown in cabinet regarding spending in another minister's department?DecrepitJohnL said:Sounds more like anti-Boris spin by denouncing anything he says as a flounce or leadership bid.
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The headless man case in the UK resulted in the Government’s Chirf Medical Officer examining each member of the Cabinet to identify the miscreant.Nigelb said:In other news, Pence is treading a dangerous path calling Ms Daniels a liar.
I don't think anyone really wants this to go to court....
http://www.intouchweekly.com/posts/stormy-daniels-full-interview-151788
I can definitely describe his junk perfectly, if I ever have to.
(From memory it was Lord Lambton but I could be muddling up my sex scandals)0 -
Mr. Eagles, I'm not sure I'd give huge weight to Peston.0
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Heard it all before. It already feels he's headline chasing. Agree with those saying that his time as Foreign Secretary has been a failed audition for promotion. Yesterday's man already.0
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Or, he can see the way things are sliding and has arrived at last chance saloon...tpfkar said:Heard it all before. It already feels he's headline chasing. Agree with those saying that his time as Foreign Secretary has been a failed audition for promotion. Yesterday's man already.
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Mr. tpfkar, Boris may feel that the longer he waits, the smaller his chances. He probably also has a psychological harpy perched on his shoulder, gnawing his ear and reminding him he bottled it last time.0
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He's clearly up to something, -but if and its a big if, he is planning a leadership bid to topple May, it would be a massive miscalculation. His time is already gone, and he would lose.0
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Yep. He has arrived at that point in life where, for most people, dawns the slow realisation that the future lies with those who are younger.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. tpfkar, Boris may feel that the longer he waits, the smaller his chances. He probably also has a psychological harpy perched on his shoulder, gnawing his ear and reminding him he bottled it last time.
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Don't like the sound of the Alaska tsunami.0
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Meh, I'll only believe it when Laura K says it. Peston is useless.0
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Shipman appears to have best sources ATMTheScreamingEagles said:Didn’t also Peston have three sources telling him Damian Green was going to be cleared.
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I honestly think Boris is bored and it's as simple as that. Brexit has turned out to be tedious and a bit shit so he wants a leadership challenge to give him a semi.0
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I honestly think as we get to the business end of Brexit.May will be very influenced by big business.This will eventually entail a referendum on the deal, to try to keep all elements of the larger conservative supporting groups together .Boris suspects this might be the outcome, and believes he is a better person to stand up to the pressure , as he did with Cameron at the last minute.He will not wait to the last minute this timeDavidL said:The problem is not really Boris, the problem is May. As Home Secretary no news was good news. Quieten things down, keep stories out of the press, say as little as possible, give non answers in every interview, she perfected all these techniques and they are largely good ones for a Home Secretary. But they are disastrous for a PM.
She should be making the weather, not having her leaky craft swamped by Boris splashing about. She has no vision, no ideas, no concept of how to use or deal with the media. She is conscientious, honest, diligent and reasonably bright. But she is absolutely useless as a politician in the modern age.0 -
First leak in 5 mins no doubtScott_P said:0 -
@DavidRoe92: Boris is the Heseltine of this generation. He thinks he should be PM. Most people like him in an indulgent sort of way. He will end up a bitter failure. His Brexit stunt killed him as a semi serious PM candidate.0
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I'm nostalgic for the days when potential leadership candidates were reported to be 'having telephone lines installed'.0
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I met someone at Xmas who is involved in trying to get her back to the UK. Boris wasn't helpful, but the woman is also an idiot.Scott_P said:0 -
Fifth set, and Nadal injured...0
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At least Boris is motivating me to renew my Tory membership when it comes round again...0
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BoJo's career tanking?Scott_P said:0 -
The longer the better for Edmund's chances...Nigelb said:Fifth set, and Nadal injured...
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Boris Johnson is the Tony Benn of the Conservative party - but without the principles.0
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If this is a leadership bid then it seems a strange time to do it. If the Cons are going to get rid of May before Brexit then the time to do it is surely after the local elections and over the summer recess.
I cam imagine the Con members would be furious if they didn't get a say for the second time in a row.0 -
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Boris has been a problem for three successive Conservative leaders.
Of course, almost anything he says will be seen through the prism of his leadership ambitions, but on the narrow point of NHS funding he's right, and Hammond needs to find some other spending cuts to cover it. It's an argument which should however be made in private.0 -
Since Labour left power, Peston is about as right on his tips as the guy in the bookies who tells people he has the inside line on the 3.30 from Newbury...cos he knows the bloke, who knows a bloke who drinks with the guy who delivers the feed to the stables.0
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One obvious point. If Boris Johnson were somehow to end up as Conservative party leader, he would have no means of calling for loyalty from those beneath him.0
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Boris v Cameron, Osborne, The Tory Party, The Labour Party, The Lib Dems, The Scot Nats, Plaid Cymru, the EU, Obama, virtually the whole political, business and media establishment.Scott_P said:@DavidRoe92: Boris is the Heseltine of this generation. He thinks he should be PM. Most people like him in an indulgent sort of way. He will end up a bitter failure. His Brexit stunt killed him as a semi serious PM candidate.
Boris won.
People would rather smear and denigrate him rather than ponder the reasons for his success.0 -
Don't think Boris will flounce.
This is all about positioning for when Theresa goes after March 2019.0 -
Lol. So Brexit has saved us some money from the EU, after all.Scott_P said:0 -
Except he didn't want to win.Fenster said:Boris v Cameron, Osborne, The Tory Party, The Labour Party, The Lib Dems, The Scot Nats, Plaid Cymru, the EU, Obama, virtually the whole political, business and media establishment.
Boris won.
People would rather smear and denigrate him rather than ponder the reasons for his success.
He backed Leave thinking they would lose narrowly and he could claim the prize he really wanted, Leadership of the party. He is still trying to achieve that.
His "win" has blighted his ambition.
Sad...0 -
Nadal retires.0
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That’s not held Corbyn back.AlastairMeeks said:One obvious point. If Boris Johnson were somehow to end up as Conservative party leader, he would have no means of calling for loyalty from those beneath him.
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It is said that a betting shop manager phoned the headmaster of Eton to complain about under-age gamblers in his shop -- who were cleaning him out thanks to inside information from their parents who owned or trained racehorses.FrancisUrquhart said:Since Labour left power, Peston is about as right on his tips as the guy in the bookies who tells people he has the inside line on the 3.30 from Newbury...cos he knows the bloke, who knows a bloke who drinks with the guy who delivers the feed to the stables.
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Scott_P said:
Except he didn't want to win.Fenster said:Boris v Cameron, Osborne, The Tory Party, The Labour Party, The Lib Dems, The Scot Nats, Plaid Cymru, the EU, Obama, virtually the whole political, business and media establishment.
Boris won.
People would rather smear and denigrate him rather than ponder the reasons for his success.
Say's who?0 -
Agree with you both, I think there is an attention seeking element as well and he'd expected a much higher profile in the Brexit negotiations which hasn't quite happened.IanB2 said:
Yep. He has arrived at that point in life where, for most people, dawns the slow realisation that the future lies with those who are younger.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. tpfkar, Boris may feel that the longer he waits, the smaller his chances. He probably also has a psychological harpy perched on his shoulder, gnawing his ear and reminding him he bottled it last time.
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Bollocks. He wanted to win. It's just another trite smear to suggest he secretly wanted to lose. The implication being that he's some shallow wretch who would sacrifice his country and party for selfish political ambition. Complete bollocks that. Anybody who has read the political history of it all knows he agonised over it.Scott_P said:
Except he didn't want to win.Fenster said:Boris v Cameron, Osborne, The Tory Party, The Labour Party, The Lib Dems, The Scot Nats, Plaid Cymru, the EU, Obama, virtually the whole political, business and media establishment.
Boris won.
People would rather smear and denigrate him rather than ponder the reasons for his success.
He backed Leave thinking they would lose narrowly and he could claim the prize he really wanted, Leadership of the party. He is still trying to achieve that.
His "win" has blighted his ambition.
Sad...0 -
No doubt he lacks principles and is completely untrustworthy, but is this important when it comes to winning elections?SouthamObserver said:Boris Johnson is the Tony Benn of the Conservative party - but without the principles.
The last 25-30 years suggest not.
During this period, the most successful Prime Minister electorally - Tony Blair - was (is) a deeply unprincipled man, but extremely successful. David Cameron seemed to believe in whatever would win him votes rather than be guided by deeply-held principles.
On the other hand, we could admire the principles of John Major and Gordon Brown, less so their leadership of the country, and less so still their election-winning ability.
And then there's the history of Boris himself - I'm sure that he was regarded as an unprincipled bounder when he campaigned for Mayor of London and Leave, but that didn't stop him winning or being a key factor behind Leave winning.0 -
What stunt?Scott_P said:@DavidRoe92: Boris is the Heseltine of this generation. He thinks he should be PM. Most people like him in an indulgent sort of way. He will end up a bitter failure. His Brexit stunt killed him as a semi serious PM candidate.
If he'd backed Leave and then done sod all which is what I'd expected then it would have been a stunt. He led the campaign and grafted and won the vote. The skills you might think would be needed in a serious PM candidate.0 -
Not a good sign, water receding in Kodiak:
https://twitter.com/breakingweather/status/955767833555857408
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I suspect this is "revenge" for May slapping down that Channel Bridge idea last week. The man is ridiculously petty and insecure.0
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Up to the time he made his choice he was keeping his options open but when he came out for Leave he did clearly put everything he could into winning.Scott_P said:
He wrote 2 articles, so leaving was not intellectually his favoured option.GIN1138 said:Say's who?
He published the one calculated to maximise his leadership chances (he thought)
He gambled on a loss, and lost.0 -
Corbynesque.AlastairMeeks said:One obvious point. If Boris Johnson were somehow to end up as Conservative party leader, he would have no means of calling for loyalty from those beneath him.
Boris would just need to inspire a new brigade of shiny faced youngsters to intimidate the Tory crusties. Perhaps the new Tory youth czar could help with that.0 -
The same was said of Corbyn - and he has surpassed expectationsAlastairMeeks said:One obvious point. If Boris Johnson were somehow to end up as Conservative party leader, he would have no means of calling for loyalty from those beneath him.
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No, he genuinely believe's the Brexit bonus we're going to achieve in a few years should be spent on the NHS (which is why he went round the country on that bus during the referendum campaignDanny565 said:I suspect this is "revenge" for May slapping down that Channel Bridge idea last week. The man is ridiculously petty and insecure.
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I suspect this is anti-Boris forces seeking to discredit him *popcorn* This seems an odd time for a new bid. You may be right about the rest.Danny565 said:I suspect this is "revenge" for May slapping down that Channel Bridge idea last week. The man is ridiculously petty and insecure.
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Heseltine of course left the Cabinet over Westland in 1986 but did not challenge Thatcher for the leadership until 1990. Plus now Mau needs to lose a no confidence vote first before there is a leadership contest0
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... the leadership.GIN1138 said:Up to the time he made his choice he was keeping his options open but when he came out for Leave he did clearly put everything he could into winning.
Winning the vote scuppered that plan.
this is not the face of a man delighted by the win. This is a man who knows he has blown his chance...
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For an intelligent bloke you've become so viscerally prejudiced against Leavers I'm afraid you aren't able to see the wood for the trees.Scott_P said:
Please provide ANY evidence to contradict this...Fenster said:The implication being that he's some shallow wretch who would sacrifice his country and party for selfish political ambition.
I was a bit like that during the Brown Premiership. I detested him so much I lost the ability to think rationally.
-Boris made the brave move to back Leave when Remain looked absolutely nailed on to win
- Boris 95% suspected his career was over for at least four years by backing Leave
- He threw himself into the Leave fray wholeheartedly
- His 'cut through' is unparalleled in UK politics, as was demonstrated throughout the campaign
- He has a knack of articulating things which - annoyingly for his opponents - lots of people agree with
- The Leave campaign stunned the world by winning
- They would never have won without Boris
He did all that believing it was right for his country despite knowing his political career within the Tory party would be destroyed if he lost.
One man's selfish ambition is another man's extraordinarily brave.0 -
If Theresa May could call for loyalty we'd not hear so much from Boris, friends of Boris, and enemies proffering unhelpful advice to Boris or the PM.AlastairMeeks said:One obvious point. If Boris Johnson were somehow to end up as Conservative party leader, he would have no means of calling for loyalty from those beneath him.
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...Or those are the faces of people completely shell-shocked about winning a campaign nobody (even themselves) ever expected to win - Even on the day of the referendum a poll put Remain 10% ahead... And I remember even you thought it was in the bag for Remain.Scott_P said:
... the leadership.GIN1138 said:Up to the time he made his choice he was keeping his options open but when he came out for Leave he did clearly put everything he could into winning.
Winning the vote scuppered that plan.
this is not the face of a man delighted by the win. This is a man who knows he has blown his chance...
There are two sides to every argument....0 -
Agreed.Richard_Nabavi said:Boris has been a problem for three successive Conservative leaders.
Of course, almost anything he says will be seen through the prism of his leadership ambitions, but on the narrow point of NHS funding he's right, and Hammond needs to find some other spending cuts to cover it. It's an argument which should however be made in private.0 -
The other very obvious point is that every time he does this and gets away with it, Johnson further weakens May’s authority domestically and internationally. Both of them put what they perceive to be their best interests before those of the country they claim to love.AlastairMeeks said:One obvious point. If Boris Johnson were somehow to end up as Conservative party leader, he would have no means of calling for loyalty from those beneath him.
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TM paying a price for not sacking Boris. The reshuffle was the perfect opportunity to get rid of him and promote to reward loyalty.
I still can’t see Boris getting to leader - but I suspect we are not so far from May losing a vote of no confidence. The likes of Soubry, Greeninng et al don’t want Boris - but they can see May is not doing a good job.0 -
It is, of course, a measure of May's inability to make a policy decision until absolutely forced to, that she has let the likely increase in NHS funding be credited to Johnson.
Though I'm sure Hammond will try to present it otherwise.0 -
Look at pictures of Farage the same day (who had already conceded defeat!)GIN1138 said:...Or those are the faces of people completely shell-shocked about winning a campaign nobody (even themselves) ever expected to win
This is not about expectation , this is about joy (or lack of it) in the result.0 -
"He did all that believing it was right for his country"Fenster said:
For an intelligent bloke you've become so viscerally prejudiced against Leavers I'm afraid you aren't able to see the wood for the trees.Scott_P said:
Please provide ANY evidence to contradict this...Fenster said:The implication being that he's some shallow wretch who would sacrifice his country and party for selfish political ambition.
I was a bit like that during the Brown Premiership. I detested him so much I lost the ability to think rationally.
-Boris made the brave move to back Leave when Remain looked absolutely nailed on to win
- Boris 95% suspected his career was over for at least four years by backing Leave
- He threw himself into the Leave fray wholeheartedly
- His 'cut through' is unparalleled in UK politics, as was demonstrated throughout the campaign
- He has a knack of articulating things which - annoyingly for his opponents - lots of people agree with
- The Leave campaign stunned the world by winning
- They would never have won without Boris
He did all that believing it was right for his country despite knowing his political career within the Tory party would be destroyed if he lost.
One man's selfish ambition is another man's extraordinarily brave.
Is that correct - didn't he say something like 'trouble is I'm not a Leaver'
https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/political-parties/conservative-party/boris-johnson/news/75196/david-cameron-boris-johnson0 -
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Hang on a minute... Peston was the one who said Damian Green was safe and going to be cleared. Why are we still listening to him?0
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But doesn't Boris have like the Health Sec himself on his side?Scott_P said: 0 -
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Shipman has Gove (Icthink) saying they decided to be serious not triumphantalist and slightly over egged itScott_P said:
Look at pictures of Farage the same day (who had already conceded defeat!)GIN1138 said:...Or those are the faces of people completely shell-shocked about winning a campaign nobody (even themselves) ever expected to win
This is not about expectation , this is about joy (or lack of it) in the result.0 -
Farage was just on the wind-up. He knew it wasn't game over, he had access to the same exit poll as Peter Cruddas.Scott_P said:
Look at pictures of Farage the same day (who had already conceded defeat!)GIN1138 said:...Or those are the faces of people completely shell-shocked about winning a campaign nobody (even themselves) ever expected to win
This is not about expectation , this is about joy (or lack of it) in the result.0 -
If you want to know why Boris should never get his hands on power, just look at the Garden Bridge. Not only did he waste tens of millions of pounds on the stupid project, he refused to cooperate with the review into it.
https://www.london.gov.uk/sites/default/files/md2108_appendix_garden_bridge_review.pdf
Therefore his recent intervention on a Channel bridge was quite hilarious ...0 -
I also think they're trying to be magnanimous in victory. I'd like to think Will Straw, Anna Soubry and Alan Johnson would have done the same - but I can't be sure.GIN1138 said:
...Or those are the faces of people completely shell-shocked about winning a campaign nobody (even themselves) ever expected to win - Even on the day of the referendum a poll put Remain 10% ahead... And I remember even you thought it was in the bag for Remain.Scott_P said:
... the leadership.GIN1138 said:Up to the time he made his choice he was keeping his options open but when he came out for Leave he did clearly put everything he could into winning.
Winning the vote scuppered that plan.
this is not the face of a man delighted by the win. This is a man who knows he has blown his chance...
There are two sides to every argument....0 -
How can we be sure this stunt was Boris on manoeuvres?
Continuity IDS has been tweeting approvingly...0 -
What I am surprised at is why when the government is going to be spending over £10bn more on the NHS and social care by 2021 than in 2015 why they don't just say this is part of the £350m a week due to Brexit net of the £40bn transitional payment for leaving with more to follow?0
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If I was Fraser I'd check with my twitter feed before boasting - James was just repeating what Laura Kuenssberg had tweeted 10 mins earlier.
https://twitter.com/FraserNelson/status/9557755748065402880 -
I always thought the most revealing anecdote about Boris was how he threw in his first job in business after a few days. He was unable to concentrate on a growth matrix, because, god forbid, we have to sometimes focus on things we're not particularly interested in.JosiasJessop said:If you want to know why Boris should never get his hands on power, just look at the Garden Bridge. Not only did he waste tens of millions of pounds on the stupid project, he refused to cooperate with the review into it.
https://www.london.gov.uk/sites/default/files/md2108_appendix_garden_bridge_review.pdf
Therefore his recent intervention on a Channel bridge was quite hilarious ...0 -
What actions you display when jostling and maneuvering to win round Tory party members in a leadership contest is very different to how you should act after winning the biggest vote in British history. I thought the official leave campaign behaved well given how emotive the debate was.Scott_P said:
Days before Gove magnanimously stabbed his buddy in the back...Brom said:I also think they're trying to be magnanimous in victory.
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https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/jan/19/boris-johnson-channel-bridge-churchill-brexitScott_P said:
If you haven’t read his Churchill book, it is hugely recommended as a psychiatric document – for all the horrifying and hilarious things it unwittingly reveals about its author. I can never believe his therapist let him publish it. By the end, it’s quite clear that you have not read Churchill’s story so much as Boris’s attempt to get you to see anything he might have done, or might ever do, as Churchillian. All politicians are self-interested gamblers with events, Johnson explains, and Churchill “put his shirt on a horse called anti-Nazism … his bet came off in spectacular fashion”. Mmmm. It probably helps to imagine Churchill spending a Sunday morning writing two columns – the first advocating resisting Hitler, the second making the case for supporting totalitarian conquest of Europe and the elimination of Jews.0 -
Probably because most people would reasonably conclude that the Brexit bonus was supposed to be "extra" to the amounts already pencilled in to deal with medical inflation and forecast demographic pressures. In order to deliver the shiny friendly queue-free health service depicted in that Leave Referendum broadcast...brendan16 said:What I am surprised at is why when the government is going to be spending over £10bn more on the NHS and social care by 2021 than in 2015 why they don't just say this is part of the £350m a week due to Brexit net of the £40bn transitional payment for leaving with more to follow?
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Mansplaining ?calum said:If I was Fraser I'd check with my twitter feed before boasting - James was just repeating what Laura Kuenssberg had tweeted 10 mins earlier.
https://twitter.com/FraserNelson/status/9557755748065402880 -
Nah, you seriously overestimate people's grasp of cumulative inflation and maths. If the PM had promised £350m per week extra for the NHS by the end of 2022 in the 2017 campaign she'd have a majority. At the cost of maybe £5bn extra for the NHS, which is probably necessary and might happen anyway.IanB2 said:
Probably because most people would reasonably conclude that the Brexit bonus was supposed to be "extra" to the amounts already pencilled in to deal with medical inflation and forecast demographic pressures. In order to deliver the shiny friendly queue-free health service depicted in that Leave Referendum broadcast...brendan16 said:What I am surprised at is why when the government is going to be spending over £10bn more on the NHS and social care by 2021 than in 2015 why they don't just say this is part of the £350m a week due to Brexit net of the £40bn transitional payment for leaving with more to follow?
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You're assuming that, even if she promised that, the public would've believed her.MaxPB said:
Nah, you seriously overestimate people's grasp of cumulative inflation and maths. If the PM had promised £350m per week extra for the NHS by the end of 2022 in the 2017 campaign she'd have a majority. At the cost of maybe £5bn extra for the NHS, which is probably necessary and might happen anyway.IanB2 said:
Probably because most people would reasonably conclude that the Brexit bonus was supposed to be "extra" to the amounts already pencilled in to deal with medical inflation and forecast demographic pressures. In order to deliver the shiny friendly queue-free health service depicted in that Leave Referendum broadcast...brendan16 said:What I am surprised at is why when the government is going to be spending over £10bn more on the NHS and social care by 2021 than in 2015 why they don't just say this is part of the £350m a week due to Brexit net of the £40bn transitional payment for leaving with more to follow?
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