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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Farage’s surprise backing could put a second Brexit referendum
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Farage’s surprise backing could put a second Brexit referendum on the agenda
EXCLUSIVE – Nigel Farage says "just maybe I’m reaching the point of thinking that we should have a second referendum on EU membership".@Nigel_Farage | @Matthew_Wright | #wrightstuff pic.twitter.com/T0fROToskr
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Never second guess the electorate.
https://twitter.com/steve_hawkes/status/951414285347016704?ref_src=twcamp^share|twsrc^m5|twgr^email|twcon^7046|twterm^1
I can imagine it now, a by election in 2017 and 'Vote UKIP to get a second referendum' will be the slogan.
That was before he won the first one, wasn’t it?
Boris is someone who will always put principle ahead of personal ambition.
On topic - the public doesn’t want a second referendum.
If there was one - I suspect leave would win more comfortably.
https://twitter.com/George_Osborne/status/951417047950528513?ref_src=twcamp^share|twsrc^m5|twgr^email|twcon^7046|twterm^1
Agreed - no way will she call one and no way would Corbyn back one either as it would fracture his
Coalition too.
No one will be able to agree on the question anyway.
Is it leave or remain
Is it leave completely or leave in name only
Is it accept the deal or stay in
Is it accept the deal or leave on WTO rules
Is it leave or remain but remain meaning we have to join Schengen and the Euro as we have already triggered article 50
What exactly is the vote going to be on - because I doubt even if May agreed to one everyone could agree on what it would be. And it would create chaos for negotiations - as anything May agrees could be overturned by voters. It's a recipe for chaos.
If we can have another vote on remain vs leave in two years then morally why can't the SNP have another vote on independence. Do we just keep voting until everyone is exhausted and we vote the right way - Ireland style!
Fresh from the sea and delivered straight to our kitchen, our smoked potted mackerel is full of flavour.
I hadn't realised that things had got so bad that fishermen were finding jars of potted mackerel in their nets.
1. Abolishing charitable status for animal sanctuaries and the RNLI
2. Halving the State Retirement Pension
3. Doubling tuition fees
4. Imposing a charge for cat ownership
5. Axing child benefit.
Assuming the deal isn't BINO I would vote:
1. Leave with the deal
2. Leave with No Deal
3. Remain, but join Euro / Schengen
4. Remain on existing terms
Farage wants to be on the telly again.
Move along please. Democracy isn't decided on twitter, and it isn't decided by Farage.
I expect this is all fantasy - May will cave in on pretty much everything, get a weak deal that is the worst of both worlds and parliament will approve it and voters will just have to suck it up. Doesn't matter what Farage thinks - May and Corbyn for different reasons won't want one. Neither wants UKIP and Farage re emerging from the ashes and Corbyn didn't have a great time last time round as it almost led to him being forced from office as almost his entire front bench quit.
Which is a shame, because seeing the contortions Ruthy D. would have to go through would be hilarious.
Well done!
Bring on EURef II.
Bring it!
Also if Farage is stressing over his place in the EU I can see no circumstances that the 2019 EU elections will include UK members
How about a referendum on exiling him to St Helena?
Oh - THAT one. The Guardian didn't provide any evidence either.
The only number remotely similar to 147% was an increase in the number of phone calls for help from 72 to 189 on the helpline of Galop, which the Guardian transformed into a headline about national crime levels. Though 189/72 is 159%.
Who knows - perhaps they had a publicity drive?
The 147% does not occur in the Galop "Hate Crime 2016" report referenced either.
I'm not disagreeing with the need for appropriate measures, just pointing out the general shitty quality of our media.
The Galop helpline is an 0800 number, so they presumably cover Scotland too - so much for Wee Ginger Dug's "England and Wales". Perhaps he is a Red Setter.
If so, it is a remarkable vote, as was the Indyref. In fact the latter must have got as close to 100% as you could possibly get. 84.6%+ 9% = a scarcely credible 93.6% participation.
There must be some interesting questions here about the assumptions of lower turnout in younger age groups. Younger people are far more likely to move and be on 2 registers, to be on a second register as a student etc. Once these anomalies are accounted for is their turnout really that much lower than the oldies? Its an interesting question, not least for those drafting the next manifestos.
A second referendum doesn't work because the options on it will be one or more of:
- dependent on the actions of other countries (e.g. voting to remain having already triggered A50)
- too vague (e.g. to confirm a Leave vote but with no details as to what that means)
- a sham (e.g. deal vs no deal, with no time for renegotiation).
We're past the point of referendums now, which is to take major decisions in principle. It's for parliament and the government to sort out the details.
Yes. Let's cancel Brexit as ending Freedom of movement is going to be bad for the lap dancing industry?
of my points on defence.
Please don't make assumptions about why I voted for Brexit. FWIW, I voted Leave because I believed it would enhance the role Britain plays in global affairs, not diminish it.
I accept there are others who disagree with this, and don't think it's credible, but I feel an independent global voice with more freedom of action was of more value to us than a constrained voice in a confederal Union that increasingly ignored us anyway because we didn't want to go in the same direction.
Fine judgement for some, perhaps, but the fundamentals are the same: Britain is a medium-sized, low ranking, world power that has hard and soft influence to shape it for the better.
We should use both.
Don't ask me why they use these terms though, as I haven't a clue!
Just like Blair, this intervention is more likely to toxify the cause for a second referendum than anything else.
As David Herdson has astutely pointed out, we're way beyond the point of no return for whether to Brexit or not.
On the point of substance about defence, you want Britain to strut on the international stage. But your mouth is writing cheques that your body can't cash. Britain should have faded gracefully back to being a regional presence decades ago, in line with its relative decline internationally. If there's one opportunity from Brexit, it's that this will in due course become apparent to even the most jingoistic and the meanest intellects.
Though whether the EU would want the UK back in the EU blocking everything again is another matter, now the UK is gone non Eurozone Poland is the problem and being warned by the likes of Verhofstadt, I expect they may only allow us back with a Remain landslide and commitment to join the Euro and Schengen which even many 2016 Remain voters would not accept
They serve food in there, it was the client who chose the venue, not me.
https://twitter.com/DanielJHannan/status/951422790837657601
walkReferendum?'Anyway must dash. This bed won't wet itself, and of course, my whole world has crumbled after Farage's decisive intervention. Whatever shall I do?
Oddly Stringfellow threatened to vote UKIP when Cameron was PM but in the end stuck with the Tories
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-2948609/EPHRAIM-HARDCASTLE-Peter-Stringfellow-returns-Tory-fold-threatening-vote-UKIP-local-elections.html
If they really cant stop sweating the fact that they lost in 2016, they need to start the campaign for re-entry AFTER we leave. Again, something that wont happen because it would mean us accepting the Euro.
Remoaners who cant let it go are only harming themselves and causing themselves much unhappiness.
The British electorate may not be so easily railroaded. There may actually be a reaction the other way - we already voted so why are we being asked to vote again. Do you hold us in contempt? So it might actually spur a stronger leave vote - as frankly it is rather insulting to be asked to keep voting until you deliver the right result.
Post June 2016 politicians will be very wary of referendums - as you cannot predict the result. It brought down a PM and nearly cost Corbyn his job. May and Corbyn won't want to repeat that experience.
Tesco sales up, shares down -- sometimes I think these City types just make it up as they go along.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-42646021
It’s the ignorant Leavers like yourself that are in a spin.
Jesus, the lunacy of some on this site beggars belief...
A second referendum would be close - the young will probably vote this time and may swing it to remain.
Fascinating stuff without a hint of soundbites and buckets of substance. Both the standard of the politicians and the journalism pales in comparison nowadays.
What's more depressing is that I couldn't see such a level of debate ever taking place between toady's crop of politicians on either side of the divide.
Worth a watch if you have a spare 50 minutes.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_zBFh6bpcMo
Who knows what sort of world and Europe we may have in 20 or 30 years - or even if there will be an EU or even a UK.
If people voted the same at 20 as at 60 we wouldn't have had Tory governments for most of the last century.
Corbyn would be very isolated though.
No Cameron to win it for No and no Clegg to kick to cloud the judgement of the voters, I think Yes2AV will win a landslide.
Whereas John McD has apparently.
Farage has no love for the Tories and the feeling is mutual. He's not trying to do any favours for them and if he makes things awkward for them he'll be happy not sad.
Depends if he's leading it or they get somebody competent in.
https://www.camecon.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/Preparing-for-Brexit-Final-Report_110118.pdf
1 - we progress with negotiations which reach some sort of provisional outcome covering the exit and the future relationship, so we know what the deal is
2 - in the background, an alternative vision of continued EU membership with various concessions, allowances, discretions etc, is dangled before us by the EU, recognising they lose out badly by us going, which possibly may apply to all EU states should they wish to take up these, and not just to help the UK out, so it's not "cherry picking" as such. The outcome we might have got to if we'd used the marginal "Leave" vote as a bargaining chip, Irish style.
We then get the second vote. "This is where we have ended up. Either Option 1 or Option 2. Which do you want?"
Option 2 wins 60-40 probably.
Danger averted, and we don't end up suffering the inconvenience of leaving only to find in 10-20 years time, we have to negotiate our way back in, sans rebate and losing the pound etc.
If only it were so simple of course.....
My fear, as always on Brexit and that which drove me finally to come out for Remain after all my agonising, is not that we fall off a cliff edge, but that we end up in a form of vassalage, as Boris put it. We're not currently heading for a cliff edge, no UK Govt would be bold and bullish enough to risk that, but for a form of vassalage. I'd personally rather take a chance on 'cliff edge' between those two options, but "option 2" above would be far more preferable to me than any of the others. We "stay in", and maintain some influence over our future, and when the EU finally does go belly up, we can be there to help them sort it all out.
It's what Cameron should have achieved for us with his "renegotiation", if only he'd been arsed enough to try properly....
https://twitter.com/Arron_banks/status/689106843000508417
1 - folk are much better informed now than they were in June 2016, and know what the stakes are. Nobody will believe £350m a week is heading to the NHS for example
2 - the youth vote / Corbynite Momentumers will swing it for Remain
I don't think Farage wants a second vote at all. No way. I reckon we'll get a "clarification" from Farage in short order. He's known for going back on his various utterances once he's properly engaged his brain...
1).The Tory government would never allow it. It would split the Tories disastrously, with Brexiteers claiming it was a conspiracy to undo Brexit.
2). Unlike the pressure to hold a first referendum because Tory voters were going to UKIP, this time that wont happen. Can you imagine millions of leavers voting for UKIP to get a second referendum which might lead to a Remain vote? Of course not.
3). Corbyn wont call for it or support it. He has been a leaver for decades, -he voted against every single EU treaty in the Commons for 30 years. And if the Opposition wont call for it...
And remember-there are millions of working class voters out there in Labour heartlands who feel strongly for Leave. It would be a disaster for Labour.
4). Time. We are out of the EU in 15 months. There is no time for momentum to build up for a new referendum, and for it then to be organised. We would have left first.
5). Tony Blair and Nick Clegg. Perhaps the two most discredited politicians of our generation -held in contempt by the mass of the population -have put themselves forward as the Lets Have Another Referendum spokesman -a gift to Brexit.
This is why there wont be another referendum. You can safely put all your money on it. If you think the UK should be in the EU start a campaign to rejoin after we have left.
The mental gymnastics would be Olga Korbut standard.
Oh, and inaccurate; I don't see any Leavers in a spin.