politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » And so to re-shuffle day unless the media’s being very badly m

HHemmelig said:

Casino_Royale said:

Mortimer said:

stodge said:

Mortimer said:

.

Strikes show why public transport should not be publically owned. that, and the sarnies.

Hang on, these are privately owned companies and they are having strikes so that's nonsensical.

As for the usual Conservative anti-Union ranting, Unions have a right to exist and protect their members. For all the usual propaganda from the train operators who seem to think it's a case of much ado about nothing (or at least that's what they are trying to convince us), I quite like the idea of guards on trains.

There's much more to this dispute than whether you call a person on a train a guard or a customer service assistant.

Two reasons why having privately operated railways is a plus when strikes are involved:

1) Strikes only affect a certain %, rather than the whole networks - because the areas are broken up, and because management are keener to keep the service going
2) The employer isn't the state, so the state cannot be held to ransom.

The SWR dispute is totally pointless. The RMT are being, as far as I can see, intransigent.

Why do you think the Unions are so keen on renationalisation?

The public are being played.

A very large slice of the travelling public are now too young to remember the famous national rail strike of 1982, which shut down the entire rail system for weeks and was ironically also partly about the current driver only operation issue. I can just about vaguely remember it as a child at the time.

Declassified documents now show us that Mrs Thatcher was angling to use the strike as an excuse to close down the majority of the rail network, and was mainly prevented from doing so by the fact that the rail union leader Sid Werdell was a moderate who realised what she was up to and finally backed down. Given today's more militant and intransigent union attitude I wouldn't be confident of that happening today.

That simply isn't true about Thatcher. She very briefly considered the Sorpell report but was quickly convinced it was the wrong thing to do and political suicide.

I think there's a bigger gap between union leaders and their members today. My guard volunteered to me he disagreed with the strike and thought the RMT had jumped the gun.

Some big beasts have been moved in the pb.com reshuffle.

Editor in charge of promoting Brexit: Mike Smithson
Editor in charge of promoting Theresa May: TSE

rkrkrk said:

Off topic - the guardian report that Barnier is meeting Nigel Farage today.
Maybe it’s just me - but isn’t that a bit weird?

Is Nigel is planning to defect? It's all got a bit complicated and nasty in the US with Bannon and Trump at each other's throats, so perhaps Nigel's angling for a nice sedate job at the EU.

Tissue_Price said:

Some big beasts have been moved in the pb.com reshuffle.

Editor in charge of promoting Brexit: Mike Smithson
Editor in charge of promoting Theresa May: TSE

I have offered to serve as Party Chairman if Mrs May ennobles me.

Can too much smugness be bad for you?

Asking for a friend who might suffer from smugness overload if Jeremy Hunt becomes Theresa May's Depute today.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Tissue_Price said:

Some big beasts have been moved in the pb.com reshuffle.

Editor in charge of promoting Brexit: Mike Smithson
Editor in charge of promoting Theresa May: TSE

I have offered to serve as Party Chairman if Mrs May ennobles me.

NOOOO!!

You will be disbarred from Elected Dictator

Some big breasts have been moved in the pb.com reshuffle according to TY.

Text from a friend.

This is going to be a reshuffle of the Valkyries.

HHemmelig said:

Casino_Royale said:

HHemmelig said:

Casino_Royale said:

Mortimer said:

stodge said:

Mortimer said:

.

Strikes show why public transport should not be publically owned. that, and the sarnies.

Hang on, these are privately owned companies and they are having strikes so that's nonsensical.



There's much more to this dispute than whether you call a person on a train a guard or a customer service assistant.

Two reasons why having privately operated railways is a plus when strikes are involved:

1) Strikes only affect a certain %, rather than the whole networks - because the areas are broken up, and because management are keener to keep the service going
2) The employer isn't the state, so the state cannot be held to ransom.

The SWR dispute is totally pointless. The RMT are being, as far as I can see, intransigent.

The public are being played.

A very large slice of the travelling public are now too young to remember the famous national rail strike of 1982, which shut down the entire rail system for weeks and was ironically also partly about the current driver only operation issue. I can just about vaguely remember it as a child at the time.

Declassified documents now show us that Mrs Thatcher was angling to use the strike as an excuse to close down the majority of the rail network, and was mainly prevented from doing so by the fact that the rail union leader Sid Werdell was a moderate who realised what she was up to and finally backed down. Given today's more militant and intransigent union attitude I wouldn't be confident of that happening today.

That simply isn't true about Thatcher. She very briefly considered the Sorpell report but was quickly convinced it was the wrong thing to do and political suicide.

I think there's a bigger gap between union leaders and their members today. My guard volunteered to me he disagreed with the strike and thought the RMT had jumped the gun.

The book "Holding the Line" by Richard Faulkner makes a pretty convincing case that it was true, by interviewing many figures involved and assessing declassified documents. Whether Thatcher would have got away with those intentions is, as you say, doubtful. In her early years she was under the spell of the likes of Alfred Sherman, who advocated wholesale tarmacking over of rail lines to create new bus expressways.

This isn't particularly a political comment about Thatcher as much of the Callaghan government privately held a similar view, including Transport Secretary Bill Rodgers of gang of four fame.

I seem to remember that from the time, although in 1982 I was having a very rough time, business-wise, and was devoting myself to that.

Grayling FFS, hurrah for Lidington bet.

https://twitter.com/ShippersUnbound/status/950322397793738752

HHemmelig said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Off topic, Fire And Fury is a rattling good read. Is it true? If only a tenth of it is true, it's still an amazing state of affairs.

If you've got the impression that this is Steve Bannon's side of the story, it really isn't. It's no more flattering about him than about anyone else.

Agree 100%.

He's not enjoying being President and never wanted to be President, which makes me think he might quit sometime during his first term.

There must be a not insignificant chance of Trump being assassinated. He is the most hated President in living memory. Given how disparaging he is about the FBI etc I wouldn't be sure that many agents would be willing to take a bullet meant for him.

Suspect that he has his own very well paid security team, his business practises prior to entering the WH are pretty well documented, and did not encourage er! friendly relationships to form - except amongst the legal profession.....

TheScreamingEagles said:

Text from a friend.

This is going to be a reshuffle of the Valkyries.

Göll to Defence

Göndul to NHS where he can wave his magic wand.

https://twitter.com/ShippersUnbound/status/950322397793738752

HHemmelig said:

deleted for repitition

It doesn't really gel with the claims that she thought (wrongly in my opinion) Rail privitisation a step too far and it was not seriously considered until Major came to power.

CarlottaVance said:

https://twitter.com/ShippersUnbound/status/950322397793738752

If that’s right, givien Grayling’s normal effectiveness, that’s Labour in Government with the LibDems the main party of oppostion.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Cyclefree said:

Casino_Royale said:

Cyclefree said:

There was something on the news this morning about Labour setting up a campaigning group focusing on Tory marginal seats.

Not much else was said (perhaps @NickPalmer may know more). But given how good Corbyn’s Labour is at this stuff, moves such as this might have a greater bearing on the next GE than today’s reshuffle.

And on that mildly provocative note I’m off to do some work.

If I were party chairman I'd be planning and recruiting for GE2022 now.

I’d be recruiting an army of people who understand social media and campaigning to start work now.

Ironically the Tories understood Facebook very well in 2015, one of the reasons why we won a majority.

Campaign post mortems are dangerous exercises in post hoc ergo propter hoc rationalisations. We did X (used Facebook/Crosby/Messina) and won so we will do X next time. 2015 proved boots on the ground don't matter. 2017 proved they did. Rinse and repeat for whatever factor you like.

Essexit said:

Cyclefree said:

Casino_Royale said:

Cyclefree said:

There was something on the news this morning about Labour setting up a campaigning group focusing on Tory marginal seats.

Not much else was said (perhaps @NickPalmer may know more). But given how good Corbyn’s Labour is at this stuff, moves such as this might have a greater bearing on the next GE than today’s reshuffle.

And on that mildly provocative note I’m off to do some work.

If I were party chairman I'd be planning and recruiting for GE2022 now.

I’d be recruiting an army of people who understand social media and campaigning to start work now.

In fairness the Tory social media game is improving, though it still isn't where it needs to be.

Alongside any social media improvements, they need a much better fast rebuttal department. A team that will take apart the fake news being spread gleefully by all and sundry and force the truth out there - and also properly rebutting each and every Labour policy comment.

It shouldn't be up to Guido alone to point much of this out.

rottenborough said:

CarlottaVance said:

https://twitter.com/ShippersUnbound/status/950322397793738752

Gauke has only just started clearing up the mess at DWP. Where's he going that is so important?

At the risk of being rapidly shown to be completely wrong, I'd say Greening to DWP looks like a daft prediction to me. She's more likely to be demoted.

rcs1000 said:

- snip-

That's no accident: George Osborne recognised the dangers of a negative feedback loop, where falling demand caused job losses, causing the savings rate to rise, and causing more job losses. The policies the government enacted were entirely designed to hold up demand.

That is a *positive* (i.e. destabilising) feedback loop.

Cyclefree said:

Casino_Royale said:

Cyclefree said:

There was something on the news this morning about Labour setting up a campaigning group focusing on Tory marginal seats.

Not much else was said (perhaps @NickPalmer may know more). But given how good Corbyn’s Labour is at this stuff, moves such as this might have a greater bearing on the next GE than today’s reshuffle.

And on that mildly provocative note I’m off to do some work.

If I were party chairman I'd be planning and recruiting for GE2022 now.

I’d be recruiting an army of people who understand social media and campaigning to start work now.

Edited: which is what Labour appear to be doing.

Even the Lib Dems were appearing en masse yesterday to start work for the local campaign. And while the London Borough of Camden’s worsening bin collections is not going to win any votes, still it shows there is some life in that party.

The Tories just appear to be adding a few more bricks to their Maginot Line.

Very simply, are there the numbers of young people who are hip to the groove and able to use social media effectively...who are Tories? I mean get boots on the ground in defence of hunting? Done. What Schoffel should everyone be wearing this season? Yep. But really understanding the yoof on the street? I don't think so.

Which is, writing it, a very, very sad state of affairs.

Cyclefree said:

Casino_Royale said:

Cyclefree said:

There was something on the news this morning about Labour setting up a campaigning group focusing on Tory marginal seats.

Not much else was said (perhaps @NickPalmer may know more). But given how good Corbyn’s Labour is at this stuff, moves such as this might have a greater bearing on the next GE than today’s reshuffle.

And on that mildly provocative note I’m off to do some work.

If I were party chairman I'd be planning and recruiting for GE2022 now.

I’d be recruiting an army of people who understand social media and campaigning to start work now.

Edited: which is what Labour appear to be doing.

Even the Lib Dems were appearing en masse yesterday to start work for the local campaign. And while the London Borough of Camden’s worsening bin collections is not going to win any votes, still it shows there is some life in that party.

The Tories just appear to be adding a few more bricks to their Maginot Line.

The problem with that is that the online world will look very different in 2020, yet alone 2022. There will be new platforms, old platforms will have died, and new tools (and paid services) that can be used.

As for Labour: a couple of people on my FB feed have, unusually, continued astrotufing their feed with pro-Labour (and particularly 'Tories are EVILLL') posts since the GE. In the case of one friend, he'll post one anti-Tory post a day, and probably one 'real' post about his life once a week.

From the reactions online and IRL, it seems he is not getting his message across, and appears more like the crazy guy muttering to himself in the corner. In the old days he might have been at Hyde Park Corner ...

I'm sure such posts will be preaching to the converted. It may well not help garner new recruits, however.

HHemmelig said:

JosiasJessop said:

Casino_Royale said:

HHemmelig said:

A very large slice of the travelling public are now too young to remember the famous national rail strike of 1982, which shut down the entire rail system for weeks and was ironically also partly about the current driver only operation issue. I can just about vaguely remember it as a child at the time.

(Snip)

Indeed. The story of Thatcher and her attitude towards the railways is much more nuanced than the typical story Labour followers trot out. She didn't care for the railways; but neither did she dislike them. They were a useful tool, and she let them get on with what they were doing as long as they didn't cause her any political headaches.

As such, she was probably the saviour of British Rail. Under her reign, real railwaymen took over much of the network and were allowed to drive forwards. Hence we had positive (and cheap) moves such as sectorisation, and the success of Scot Rail and NSE under Chris Green.

Erm you must be a bit thick if you think I'm a "typical Labour follower". Haven't you seen my avatar?

You were trotting out the same story many on the left do. If you're not a Labour supporter, than you've swallowed the mostly-false line they give out. Instead of insulting strangers on t'Internet, perhaps you should try and learn something instead.

https://twitter.com/mrharrycole/status/950326584132689920

https://twitter.com/ShippersUnbound/status/950327691420553216
https://twitter.com/ShippersUnbound/status/950322397793738752

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/mrharrycole/status/950326584132689920

Job for Arlene?

Carrie Gracie - how noble is it to resign from a post when you already have another significant job within the same organisation?

Different regional editors have different sorts of jobs - the US Editor has a much larger role to play in newsmaking than the China Editor - so it really doesn't strike me as unreasonable that the US Editor is paid more than the China Editor. The two roles might have the same title - but they don't have the same level of activity or importance.

The same goes for the Middle East Editor - the news that is coming out of that region is far more central to the news operation.

China will become increasingly important - but at this point in world history, the US and Middle East are more prominent in global news terms.

It seems totally reasonable to have various tiers in terms of Regional Editor pay scales - each region will have different numbers of reporters, journalists and technicians and so reflecting this in the pay of the Editor would seem appropriate.

Nothing to do with gender and everything to do with the actual jobs being done.

numbertwelve said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/mrharrycole/status/950326584132689920

That’s a surprise, isn’t it?

Health reasons.

Mr. Simon, perfectly reasonable take on events.

If you'd said it on Twitter you would've been denounced for mansplaining

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Simon, perfectly reasonable take on events.

If you'd said it on Twitter you would've been denounced for mansplaining

Yet another good reason for never posting there!

If Gracie has anyone to blame, it is probably her agent who didn't secure her a better deal.

numbertwelve said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/mrharrycole/status/950326584132689920

That’s a surprise, isn’t it?

https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/950329034398937088

I quite liked James Brokenshire. In happier times he would have been well regarded. But it did seem that the current personalities and problems in NI were beyond him and he didn't look like finding a way through the impasse.

I'd have thought that in the context of Stormont and Brexit, the NI secretary role is more important than it's been for years. The wrong choice could go a long way to derailing Brexit and forcing the Government down a line they wouldn't choose. I wonder if a smart legal mind is needed - a Dom Raab or similar? Not the time to give the NI role to someone in training or to give to someone you want to sack but can't.

HHemmelig said:

JosiasJessop said:

HHemmelig said:

JosiasJessop said:

Casino_Royale said:

HHemmelig said:

A very large slice of the travelling public are now too young to remember the famous national rail strike of 1982, which shut down the entire rail system for weeks and was ironically also partly about the current driver only operation issue. I can just about vaguely remember it as a child at the time.

(Snip)

Indeed. The story of Thatcher and her attitude towards the railways is much more nuanced than the typical story Labour followers trot out. She didn't care for the railways; but neither did she dislike them. They were a useful tool, and she let them get on with what they were doing as long as they didn't cause her any political headaches.

As such, she was probably the saviour of British Rail. Under her reign, real railwaymen took over much of the network and were allowed to drive forwards. Hence we had positive (and cheap) moves such as sectorisation, and the success of Scot Rail and NSE under Chris Green.

Erm you must be a bit thick if you think I'm a "typical Labour follower". Haven't you seen my avatar?

You were trotting out the same story many on the left do. If you're not a Labour supporter, than you've swallowed the mostly-false line they give out. Instead of insulting strangers on t'Internet, perhaps you should try and learn something instead.

I sourced the very good book in which all this is written. As usual, you quote no sources and just try to convince everyone that you are some kind of expert on all things tech and transport based on nothing more than bluster. You aren't even a graduate are you?

Your last sentence is just so out of order. It does validate the idea that graduates consider themselves to be superior which is just nonsense

https://twitter.com/george_osborne/status/950330033784217600

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/george_osborne/status/950330033784217600

A Westmister Standard cartoon that's slightly amusing......

Who cares about any re-shuffle? - it's just a few political anoraks who get a bit hot under the collar.

For 99.9% of the population, this means nothing. We'll still have a terribly under-funded NHS, we'll still have an education system that is not delivering, we'll still be getting poorer, year on year (apart from the tax-dodging rich), we'll still have a third world privatised railway where the Government can find a huge amount of money to pay to one of the incompetent corrupt railway operators. You get the point people?

The only thing that needs to reshuffle is the clueless, heartless and incompetent Tory Government being ejected out. Hope it is this year but not holding my breath...

Mr. Simon, to be fair, there can be good stuff too, but there are many lunatics. It can also be good for F1 news. Both the 2012 and 2016 Spanish GP winning tips I offered are owed to Twitter. (Maldonado/Alonso to lead lap 1 after they qualified 2nd and 3rd but 1st-placed Hamilton got a grid penalty, and Verstappen to win at 250/1).

murali_s said:

Who cares about any re-shuffle? - it's just a few political anoraks who get a bit hot under the collar.

For 99.9% of the population, this means nothing. We'll still have a terribly under-funded NHS, we'll still have an education system that is not delivering, we'll still be getting poorer, year on year (apart from the tax-dodging rich), we'll still have a third world privatised railway where the Government can find a huge amount of money to pay to one of the incompetent corrupt railway operators. You get the point people?

The only thing that needs to reshuffle is the clueless, heartless and incompetent Tory Government being ejected out. Hope it is this year but not holding my breath...

Or the clueless, heartless and incompetent Wales labour government that is many times worse in health and education than in England

HHemmelig said:

JosiasJessop said:

HHemmelig said:

JosiasJessop said:

HHemmelig said:

JosiasJessop said:

Casino_Royale said:

HHemmelig said:

A very large slice of the travelling public are now too young to remember the famous national rail strike of 1982, which shut down the entire rail system for weeks and was ironically also partly about the current driver only operation issue. I can just about vaguely remember it as a child at the time.

(Snip)

Indeed. The story of Thatcher and her attitude towards the railways is much more nuanced than the typical story Labour followers trot out. She didn't care for the railways; but neither did she dislike them. They were a useful tool, and she let them get on with what they were doing as long as they didn't cause her any political headaches.

As such, she was probably the saviour of British Rail. Under her reign, real railwaymen took over much of the network and were allowed to drive forwards. Hence we had positive (and cheap) moves such as sectorisation, and the success of Scot Rail and NSE under Chris Green.

Erm you must be a bit thick if you think I'm a "typical Labour follower". Haven't you seen my avatar?

You were trotting out the same story many on the left do. If you're not a Labour supporter, than you've swallowed the mostly-false line they give out. Instead of insulting strangers on t'Internet, perhaps you should try and learn something instead.

I sourced the very good book in which all this is written. As usual, you quote no sources and just try to convince everyone that you are some kind of expert on all things tech and transport based on nothing more than bluster. You aren't even a graduate are you?

'As usual' ? LOL. I often link to stuff to back up what I say: it just gets repetitive when people evidently don't read them.

Its funny that you claim to have soured a book, and fail to mention it! So what is your source - it'd be interesting to read it (and please let it not be by Wolmar - a good man on many fronts, but rather biased).

And no, I'm not a graduate. Can you tell me quite what that's got to do with anything? Are you assuming my lack of degree makes me somehow thick or incapable of reading and interpreting information?

Nothing wrong with not being a graduate...

Absolutely!

As the old saying goes, An Expert knows more and more about less and less until they know completely everything about absolutely nothing

https://twitter.com/MattChorley/status/950331474275897344

oxfordsimon said:

Carrie Gracie - how noble is it to resign from a post when you already have another significant job within the same organisation?

Different regional editors have different sorts of jobs - the US Editor has a much larger role to play in newsmaking than the China Editor - so it really doesn't strike me as unreasonable that the US Editor is paid more than the China Editor. The two roles might have the same title - but they don't have the same level of activity or importance.

The same goes for the Middle East Editor - the news that is coming out of that region is far more central to the news operation.

China will become increasingly important - but at this point in world history, the US and Middle East are more prominent in global news terms.

It seems totally reasonable to have various tiers in terms of Regional Editor pay scales - each region will have different numbers of reporters, journalists and technicians and so reflecting this in the pay of the Editor would seem appropriate.

Nothing to do with gender and everything to do with the actual jobs being done.

In terms of recruitment, it will be easier to find someone of high quality to cover the US. A China editor will need to speak and read fluent Chinese, have the skills to gain the trust of non-regime-friendly contacts, learn how to navigate the tangential signals that are often sent out by authoritarian regimes that dare not spell out the reality, find stories the regime would like to cover up and operate generally within a country that does not permit free speech or thought. Put another way, you can find plenty of good journalists to be a US Editor, far fewer to be a China one. Or put another way, the BBC probably does not need to be paying Jon Sopel close to what he is actually getting.

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/MattChorley/status/950331474275897344

...and the news is?

SouthamObserver said:

Scott_P said:

@BBCHelenCatt: Breaking: Chris Grayling has been moved from Transport Secretary to Conservative Party Chairman #reshuffle

Hilarious!!!

That's the youth vote in the bag!

Just not the Tories bag.....

https://twitter.com/Conservatives/status/950332134736228352

Big_G_NorthWales said:

murali_s said:

Who cares about any re-shuffle? - it's just a few political anoraks who get a bit hot under the collar.

For 99.9% of the population, this means nothing. We'll still have a terribly under-funded NHS, we'll still have an education system that is not delivering, we'll still be getting poorer, year on year (apart from the tax-dodging rich), we'll still have a third world privatised railway where the Government can find a huge amount of money to pay to one of the incompetent corrupt railway operators. You get the point people?

The only thing that needs to reshuffle is the clueless, heartless and incompetent Tory Government being ejected out. Hope it is this year but not holding my breath...

Or the clueless, heartless and incompetent Wales labour government that is many times worse in health and education than in England

Gold old Big_G - always coming to the defence of the clueless and heartless Tory bafoons. I have a sweepstake in my head that you would be the first to defend these morons.

I say this, you are 100% consistent but sadly you are 100% wrong...

Grayling is a colossus. A latter day Churchill. Do not mock or doubt him.

BBC:

Northern Ireland Secretary James Brokenshire has resigned from government, the Northern Ireland Office has confirmed.
It's understood he requires surgery soon for a lung condition.

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-northern-ireland-42608564?ns_mchannel=social&ns_campaign=bbc_politics&ns_source=twitter&ns_linkname=news_central

How has Grayling alienated the youth?