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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Donald Trump’s exit year remains the most active political bet
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Donald Trump’s exit year remains the most active political betting market
As we move towards the end of the year I plan to run a series of posts looking at the current active betting markets of which there are not a lot.
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That exponential decay of the red line as the clock ticks down is intriguing.
And may I use this opportunity to ask if anyone else can use OS X safari to comment? It’s been a while since I tried, and the nested repeat login error seems to have reappeared. Have cleared history etc without success.
George Osborne.
https://twitter.com/labourwhips/status/943197092633247744
Less iPhone typing is a good thing.
On-topic: Trump will probably still be around a while. Not an especially heroic prediction, of course.
Parliament is beholden to the people. Or should be.
'By the bowels of Christ, what a motley, scurvy crew infects this place; I cannot rest my eyes upon thee.'
https://betdata.io/trump-to-leave-before-term
I wonder however given Trump's notorious temper whether he might be vulnerable to a sudden and debilitating stroke. That really would put a series of cats among pigeons.
My hope is based on my preference for Trump to Pence as President. Trump is obviously obnoxious and is trashing the Republican brand. Great! Pence, on the surface, appears to be a responsible reasonable politician but his beliefs are far more obnoxious than Trump's - even though his behaviour and demeanour isn't. Pence would also have a better chance of re-election than Trump. I've relaxed about Trump, ever since the Generals confirmed that they have effectively disconnected his biscuit.
My betting is based on the Senate arithmetic which means he won't be impeached. The only risk to my bet is that he might simply resign because he's no longer enjoying it and it is trashing his business interests, saying to the Republican party - "I could have made America great but you blew it." That's much less likely after the tax bill passes.
https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.gq.com/story/nuclear-football-tackle/amp
And the Pentagon have added extra protocols for launches.
The European Union says Brexit transition should end no later than 31 December 2020
Loud orgies of Mexican fish could deafen dolphins, say scientists
Although not as surreal as the article @Richard_Nabavi has linked to!
https://mobile.twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/941437474517213184
https://ec.europa.eu/commission/sites/beta-political/files/annex_commissions_recommendation_20-12-2017.pdf
https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/943434240817065984
What's left is:
a) Trump resigns out of shame
b) Lots of Republicans defect
c) His own cabinet makes a move against him
d) Medical issues, such as death
...where (a), (b) seem distinctly improbable.
That he's got this far without (c) suggests they generally think they can manage him, so you can't quite rule it out but it's quite unlikely.
Old fat guy in a high-stress job, symptoms appearing not unadjacent to Alzheimer's etc, has to be a non-trivial possibility, but I reckon the value is with Remain. And that fits the general rule that you should bet on things not happening.
Remember, the 25th Amendment only assumes the President's incapacity - if the President and the Vice President are both incapacitated the constitution is silent on what happens next and the procedure to invoke. Indeed, it's easier from that point of view if they both die as then the line of succession is pretty clear.
I think that JRM may not be too delighted by Section 11 onwards.
Anyhoo I remember when you said a 2019 election was likely.
https://twitter.com/piris_jc/status/943272767046242304
A 2019 election is not impossible but I think the next leader will want to ensure we are out of the EU and transition period when they call it to get the base out, though not leave it too long post transition either
move to the Tories turned out to be rubbish?
Anyone got any suggestions.
But Pence will be 61. That's the risk - two septuagenarians up against a septuagenarian and somebody younger.
Also mobilising the base isn't really enough. The key is reaching out to uncommitted voters in swing states. Trump did that really well, Clinton did not. What she did instead was pile up huge majorities where the blues were already strong.
The biscuit is the authenticator card to use with it.
Don’t panic, but for 15 years during the Cold War, the code meant to prevent unauthorized launching of the United States’ arsenal of Minuteman nuclear missiles was apparently “00000000.”
The alarmingly insecure “Permissive Action Link“ (PAL) code first came to light in 2004, after Bruce Blair, a former Minuteman missile launch control officer, disclosed it in a column for the Center for Defense Information.
https://m.huffpost.com/us/entry/4386784
A 13% lead for Sanders over Trump as PPP currently has would see the biggest Democratic landslide since 1964 at the presidential level, as for the Electoral College remember Hillary lost Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania by less than 1% each, had she won all 3 she would have won the Electoral College. Sanders is also a better candidate for the rustbelt than Hillary was
....Before the order can be processed by the military, the president must be positively identified using a special code issued on a plastic card, nicknamed the "biscuit".
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_football
It is possible that electoral uncertainty will make the EU cautious about agreeing anything major. This goes back to your point about the June election, I guess.
Guardian live blog, 11:26
The draft negotiating directives, which supplement the negotiating directives from May 2017, set out additional details on possible transitional arrangements. These include, in particular, the following:
There should be no “cherry picking”: The United Kingdom will continue to participate in the customs union and the single market (with all four freedoms). The union acquis should continue to apply in full to and in the United Kingdom as if it were a member state. Any changes made to the acquis during this time should automatically apply to the United Kingdom.
All existing union regulatory, budgetary, supervisory, judiciary and enforcement instruments and structures will apply, including the competence of the court of justice of the European Union.
The United Kingdom will be a third country as of 30 March 2019. As a result, it will no longer be represented in union institutions, agencies, bodies and offices.
The transition period needs to be clearly defined and precisely limited in time. The commission recommends that it should not last beyond 31 December 2020.
The recommendation also recalls the need to translate into legal terms the results of the first phase of the negotiations, as outlined in the commission’s communication and joint report. It underlines that work needs to be completed on all withdrawal issues, including those not yet addressed in the first phase, such as the overall governance of the withdrawal agreement and substantive issues such as goods placed on the market before the United Kingdom’s withdrawal from the EU.
https://order-order.com/2017/12/20/uk-best-country-business-despitebrexit/
The White House has pledged to announce details of Donald Trump’s proposed visit to the UK imminently amid speculation that he will travel to London within weeks.
The US President is considered increasingly likely to be present for the official opening of his country’s new embassy on the banks of the Thames at Nine Elms in February.
Mr Trump and Theresa May spoke on Tuesday, in their first phone conversation after the Prime Minister criticised the President for re-tweeting videos posted by far-right group Britain First.
Mr Trump had then hit back at her on Twitter, sparking fears of a diplomatic rift.
Asked whether the possibility of a visit to the UK had been discussed during the call, White House spokeswoman Sarah Huckabee Sanders said: "That invitation has been extended and accepted. We're working with them to finalise the details, which we expect to announce soon.”
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/donald-trump-uk-visit-announcement-soon-amid-speculation-he-could-arrive-in-london-within-weeks-a3723996.html
https://twitter.com/StevePeers/status/943448413823229952
https://twitter.com/StevePeers/status/943449265086574595
He's on a sticky wicket really, the fact that the media spends so little time discussing this suggests that they still think that they are now the opposition and Corbyn is largely irrelevant.