politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why those opposed to Brexit shouldn’t get too excited by the B
Comments
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The acid test of Brexit polling will come, not when Remain has consistent leads over Leave, but when BoZo declares for Remain.
Only a matter of time...0 -
LEAVE 52%Yorkcity said:
And your point is ?Sunil_Prasannan said:
Not even multiple election winners Thatcher and Blair got more than 50% of the vote.stevef said:We are not governed by opinion polls -the same polls which gave May a landslide at the general election. We had a referendum, the only poll that mattered.It was the largest vote for change in British political history. Period.
REMAIN 48%
новосунильск, россия0 -
I predict that afer a few years in purgatory (transition) the EU will itself be re-structured into "core" plus "associate members" with a painful withdrawal from the Euro by Med countries, possibly Ireland and a few others. We will then rejoin as members of the looser group.0
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That's what Ultras do. In the long run they don't matter.TheScreamingEagles said:
That's why I hope Brexit turns out to be a success, I really don't want to join the single currency.TwistedFireStopper said:
That's a plausible scenario, except that rejoining would mean going full-fat EU, and currently, I don't think the country is up for that. Maybe after a few years of the Brexit Apocalypse we might be....TheScreamingEagles said:
It won't be via a second referendum, if we rejoin, I think this is the most plausible route if Brexit turns out to be economically sub-optimal.TwistedFireStopper said:
I think that will depend on how Brexit is overturned. If there is a second referendum and remain wins convincingly, then most people will just shrug their shoulders and get on with life. If it's a fudge with the likes of Blair, Clegg, Osborne and the rest throwing spanners in the works and it grinds to a halt, i can see it being worse for the country than actually Brexiting.Dura_Ace said:
Iraq war syndrome. It's hard to find anyone who will admit to being an enthusiastic proponent of it. So it will be with Brexit 15 years hence.FF43 said:
I was looking at a poll the other day - I can't remember which one. A curious fact fell out of the figures. A net two percentage points of Leave voters now say they voted Remain. Not massive, but curious.
One party will propose rejoining the single market and customs union and they win the general election and implement their manifesto.
After a few years they'll propose rejoining and if they win, that manifesto commitment will be honoured.
The sooner we Leave, the sooner we Rejoin.
It is also why I get so frustrated at berks like JRM being so absolutist.0 -
https://twitter.com/andrewstoneman/status/941491061452664834Sunil_Prasannan said:LEAVE 52%
REMAIN 48%
новосунильск, россия0 -
Ah, Mr Perfect has arisen.Richard_Tyndall said:
And is why you were wrong then and are wrong now. You really never learn do you.TheScreamingEagles said:
That's why I wrote a piece a year ago pointing out Leavers were Juncker's Fifth Columnists.Richard_Tyndall said:
All of which dreaming of course ignores the reality that the EU is changing and will continue to change, becoming a far closer union than it is now with far less power for national Parliaments. The idea that the British would ever seek to rejoin after we have left is simply pipe dreams. More to the point nor would the EU want us to rejoin on our current terms after all the trouble we have cause them for the last 40 years. So you are now going to be looking at persuading a majority of the population that Euro membership and paying a much lrger contribution are both going to be a cracking idea. Good luck with that Gromit.TheScreamingEagles said:
It won't be via a second referendum, if we rejoin, I think this is the most plausible route if Brexit turns out to be economically sub-optimal.TwistedFireStopper said:
I think that will depend on how Brexit is overturned. If there is a second referendum and remain wins convincingly, then most people will just shrug their shoulders and get on with life. If it's a fudge with the likes of Blair, Clegg, Osborne and the rest throwing spanners in the works and it grinds to a halt, i can see it being worse for the country than actually Brexiting.Dura_Ace said:
Iraq war syndrome. It's hard to find anyone who will admit to being an enthusiastic proponent of it. So it will be with Brexit 15 years hence.FF43 said:
I was looking at a poll the other day - I can't remember which one. A curious fact fell out of the figures. A net two percentage points of Leave voters now say they voted Remain. Not massive, but curious.
One party will propose rejoining the single market and customs union and they win the general election and implement their manifesto.
After a few years they'll propose rejoining and if they win, that manifesto commitment will be honoured.
The sooner we Leave, the sooner we Rejoin.
And I thought it was Christmas, not Easter...0 -
The FT has an assessment of the economic impact of Brexit so far:
https://www.ft.com/content/e3b29230-db5f-11e7-a039-c64b1c09b482
"Economists for Brexit, a forecasting group, predicted that after a leave vote growth in GDP would expand 2.7 per cent in 2017. The Treasury expected a mild recession. Neither proved correct. The 2017 growth rate appears likely to slow to 1.5 per cent at a time when the global economy is strengthening.
According to economists such as Robert Chote, chairman of the independent Office for Budget Responsibility, which produces the official government forecasts, a more pressing question is to assess the impact compared with what would have happened had the vote gone the other way. “Many PhDs are going to be written on the impact of Brexit over the years to come,” he says.
This work has started, and includes a range of estimates calculated by the Financial Times suggesting that the value of Britain’s output is now around 0.9 per cent lower than was possible if the country had voted to stay in the EU. That equates to almost exactly £350m a week lost to the British economy — an irony that will not be lost on those who may have backed Leave because of the claim made on the side of the bus."0 -
Regrettably I don’t think anyone will find this particularly convincing.TheScreamingEagles said:
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How fortunate we are that the government doesn't take 100% of economic output in tax then.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
Ivanteyevka is a NE suburb of Moscow. Brexit heartland.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
I assume they are running a parallel universe where Britain stayed in the EU? That, or they are just guessing.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
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What's with the 'Prof' thing? Presumably Godfrey is being satirical about the propensity of Kippers to fabricate academic titles.TheScreamingEagles said:So in the few weeks we've had
1) Farage and his Jewish Lobby comments
2) Leave.EU repeating a famous anti-Semitic trope about George Soros
3) Godfrey Bloom with this https://twitter.com/goddersbloom/status/942664507939319809
I think it is time to proscribe UKIP as a racist organisation like Combat 180 -
I think you must be the eminent psephologist who thinks General elections are the same as referendums.Sunil_Prasannan said:
LEAVE 52%Yorkcity said:
And your point is ?Sunil_Prasannan said:
Not even multiple election winners Thatcher and Blair got more than 50% of the vote.stevef said:We are not governed by opinion polls -the same polls which gave May a landslide at the general election. We had a referendum, the only poll that mattered.It was the largest vote for change in British political history. Period.
REMAIN 48%
новосунильск, россия0 -
"Julian Jessop. head of the Brexit unit at the Institute of Economic Affairs, says "lots of sensible Brexiters accept there will be short term hit and it is unarguable that the economy is weaker than it would have been ... in the long term it's all to play for."rkrkrk said:
But in the long term we are all dead, as another well known economist once observed.0 -
You mean you don't care about your unborn great grand children?anothernick said:
"Julian Jessop. head of the Brexit unit at the Institute of Economic Affairs, says "lots of sensible Brexiters accept there will be short term hit and it is unarguable that the economy is weaker than it would have been ... in the long term it's all to play for."rkrkrk said:
But in the long term we are all dead, as another well known economist once observed.0 -
NEW THREAD
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You can see his 'vassal state' rhetoric pointing in that direction.Scott_P said:The acid test of Brexit polling will come, not when Remain has consistent leads over Leave, but when BoZo declares for Remain.
Only a matter of time...0 -
But, it's almost as much speculation as the pre-June 2016 forecasts were. How do we how a stronger pound, a narrow Remain result, a precarious Cameron as PM (as he would have been by now), and an ongoing large trade deficit would have affected jobs and investment?AlastairMeeks said:The FT has an assessment of the economic impact of Brexit so far:
https://www.ft.com/content/e3b29230-db5f-11e7-a039-c64b1c09b482
"Economists for Brexit, a forecasting group, predicted that after a leave vote growth in GDP would expand 2.7 per cent in 2017. The Treasury expected a mild recession. Neither proved correct. The 2017 growth rate appears likely to slow to 1.5 per cent at a time when the global economy is strengthening.
According to economists such as Robert Chote, chairman of the independent Office for Budget Responsibility, which produces the official government forecasts, a more pressing question is to assess the impact compared with what would have happened had the vote gone the other way. “Many PhDs are going to be written on the impact of Brexit over the years to come,” he says.
This work has started, and includes a range of estimates calculated by the Financial Times suggesting that the value of Britain’s output is now around 0.9 per cent lower than was possible if the country had voted to stay in the EU. That equates to almost exactly £350m a week lost to the British economy — an irony that will not be lost on those who may have backed Leave because of the claim made on the side of the bus."
We never will.
I note that Economists for Brexit were far closer to the truth than HM Treasury.0 -
It's very disquieting.TheScreamingEagles said:So in the few weeks we've had
1) Farage and his Jewish Lobby comments
2) Leave.EU repeating a famous anti-Semitic trope about George Soros
3) Godfrey Bloom with this https://twitter.com/goddersbloom/status/942664507939319809
I think it is time to proscribe UKIP as a racist organisation like Combat 180 -
He's from the FT.....what would he know?Charles said:
How fortunate we are that the government doesn't take 100% of economic output in tax then.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
It's unclear what you want.TheScreamingEagles said:
That's why I hope Brexit turns out to be a success, I really don't want to join the single currency.TwistedFireStopper said:
That's a plausible scenario, except that rejoining would mean going full-fat EU, and currently, I don't think the country is up for that. Maybe after a few years of the Brexit Apocalypse we might be....TheScreamingEagles said:
It won't be via a second referendum, if we rejoin, I think this is the most plausible route if Brexit turns out to be economically sub-optimal.TwistedFireStopper said:
I think that will depend on how Brexit is overturned. If there is a second referendum and remain wins convincingly, then most people will just shrug their shoulders and get on with life. If it's a fudge with the likes of Blair, Clegg, Osborne and the rest throwing spanners in the works and it grinds to a halt, i can see it being worse for the country than actually Brexiting.Dura_Ace said:
Iraq war syndrome. It's hard to find anyone who will admit to being an enthusiastic proponent of it. So it will be with Brexit 15 years hence.FF43 said:
I was looking at a poll the other day - I can't remember which one. A curious fact fell out of the figures. A net two percentage points of Leave voters now say they voted Remain. Not massive, but curious.
One party will propose rejoining the single market and customs union and they win the general election and implement their manifesto.
After a few years they'll propose rejoining and if they win, that manifesto commitment will be honoured.
The sooner we Leave, the sooner we Rejoin.
It is also why I get so frustrated at berks like JRM being so absolutist.
You want us to Leave quickly, so we rejoin quickly.
Yet, you want Brexit to be a success, because you don't want the single currency.0 -
Popcorn!
THE broadcasting watchdog has launched an investigation into Alex Salmond’s TV show.
Ofcom is examining whether the former First Minister’s debut show on a Kremlin propaganda channel breached guidelines on accuracy and “materially misled” viewers.
The November 16 episode of the Alex Salmond Show on RT proved controversial because of a series of “tweets” Mr Salmond read out on air.
Mr Salmond claimed there had been an “avalanche” of messages from the public.
However one tweet was attributed to an account that had never posted, another to an account that had yet to post the tweet, and one was from the show’s series director.
http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/15779190.Watchdog_launches_probe_into_Salmond_TV_show/?ref=twtrec
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Fake noose.....CarlottaVance said:Popcorn!
THE broadcasting watchdog has launched an investigation into Alex Salmond’s TV show.
Ofcom is examining whether the former First Minister’s debut show on a Kremlin propaganda channel breached guidelines on accuracy and “materially misled” viewers.
The November 16 episode of the Alex Salmond Show on RT proved controversial because of a series of “tweets” Mr Salmond read out on air.
Mr Salmond claimed there had been an “avalanche” of messages from the public.
However one tweet was attributed to an account that had never posted, another to an account that had yet to post the tweet, and one was from the show’s series director.
http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/15779190.Watchdog_launches_probe_into_Salmond_TV_show/?ref=twtrec0 -
FPT
And not much worth it in the end it would seem, sadly.tlg86 said:
To be fair, the number of people who have read a manifesto from cover to cover can be counted on the fingers of one hand. Our own @kle4 is one of them.SandyRentool said:'Red Ken' from Nottingham says he never read the 2017 Tory manifesto.
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