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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » To get the tone right it has to come from the top
Labour MP @DavidLammy recorded £2,713.25 worth of flights and hospitality for a trip to Washington D.C in September 2017 funded by George Soros' Open Society Foundation. https://t.co/DIgAukz0co
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First?0
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Absolutely agree with Ms Cyclefree.0
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Not a great deal to argue with in Cyclefree's impressive header for me.
However it will be mighty difficult to bring the nation together and find that unifying vision.
Particularly when our system rewards those who satisfy 45% of the electorate.0 -
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May is now getting the tone exactly right, a transition period and FTA to appease Remainers while still leaving the EU, the single market and ending free movement to appease Leavers0
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If only Mrs May had said something like this:
I want this United Kingdom to emerge from this period of change stronger, fairer, more united and more outward-looking than ever before. I want us to be a secure, prosperous, tolerant country - a magnet for international talent and a home to the pioneers and innovators who will shape the world ahead. I want us to be a truly Global Britain – the best friend and neighbour to our European partners, but a country that reaches beyond the borders of Europe too. A country that goes out into the world to build relationships with old friends and new allies alike......
We want to guarantee the rights of EU citizens who are already living in Britain, and the rights of British nationals in other member states, as early as we can.
I have told other EU leaders that we could give people the certainty they want straight away, and reach such a deal now.
Many of them favour such an agreement - one or two others do not - but I want everyone to know that it remains an important priority for Britain – and for many other member states – to resolve this challenge as soon as possible. Because it is the right and fair thing to do.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/01/17/theresa-mays-brexit-speech-full/0 -
And that is why we seek a new and equal partnership – between an independent, self-governing, Global Britain and our friends and allies in the EU.CarlottaVance said:
How is the equal partnership turning out?0 -
Also, is Lammy's a particularly egregious freebie? One would have thought Leave EU would be super wary of casting the first stone.0
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+1dixiedean said:Not a great deal to argue with in Cyclefree's impressive header for me.
However it will be mighty difficult to bring the nation together and find that unifying vision.
Particularly when our system rewards those who satisfy 45% of the electorate.0 -
If it made you feel instinctively superior - then it has served its purpose.TheScreamingEagles said:I feel Marie’s pain.
https://twitter.com/youngvulgarian/status/9416376275387392000 -
FPT
Yes you are right about that of course. The role of rule taker is a very silly position for the UK to get itself into. But I don't think many voters will worry about the detail - all they will see is continuing free movement, EU regulation and all the other trappings of membership.FF43 said:
I disagree. Membership is massively different from participation on a rule-taking basis. Norway is cool with outsourcing the major part of its foreign policy to a third party. I can't see the UK being so easy-going And even so, the Norwegian government thinks its a nonsense. They have to accept it because they know they won't win a referendum on EU membership.0 -
Yet ended by 2022, the date the next general election is dueanothernick said:FPT
Yes you are right about that of course. The role of rule taker is a very silly position for the UK to get itself into. But I don't think many voters will worry about the detail - all they will see is continuing free movement, EU regulation and all the other trappings of membership.FF43 said:
I disagree. Membership is massively different from participation on a rule-taking basis. Norway is cool with outsourcing the major part of its foreign policy to a third party. I can't see the UK being so easy-going And even so, the Norwegian government thinks its a nonsense. They have to accept it because they know they won't win a referendum on EU membership.0 -
Sound post. And it's precisely why I refuse to use the T word about anyone here or elsewhere, even as the debate becomes more and more intemperate. It's completely counterproductive, especially when I'm fairly certain the rebels believe they have Britain's best interests at heart. More importantly intemperate language stirs up the mob and it becomes a JS-Mill-Corn-dealer type thing.
A quick refresher:
...even opinions lose their immunity, when the circumstances in which they are expressed are such as to constitute their expression a positive instigation to some mischievous act. An opinion that corn-dealers are starvers of the poor, or that private property is robbery, ought to be unmolested when simply circulated through the press, but may justly incur punishment when delivered orally to an excited mob assembled before the house of a corn-dealer.
When does the PB Christmas truce begin?0 -
Hyufd said: "basically the Tories go for soft Brexit for 80% of the Parliament to secure anti Corbyn Remainers and protect the economy then go for fuller Brexit ie a FTA that ends free movement under a Leaver a few months before the next general election to ensure Leave voters do not shift from the Tories to UKIP"
Ukip is on life-support and will die on 19 March 2019. It's a Brexiter fantasy that the party has any future significance. It might stand 100 zombie candidates at the next election, but they'll be largely ignored.0 -
Tracey
Crouch0 -
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/dec/15/bt-sky-deal-atlantic-and-sport-channels-customers These two have done deal.0
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The PB Christmas truce starts on Christmas Eve when I invite PBers around to have pineapple on pizza as we watch that perfect Christmas film Die Hard.kyf_100 said:Sound post. And it's precisely why I refuse to use the T word about anyone here or elsewhere, even as the debate becomes more and more intemperate. It's completely counterproductive, especially when I'm fairly certain the rebels believe they have Britain's best interests at heart. More importantly intemperate language stirs up the mob and it becomes a JS-Mill-Corn-dealer type thing.
A quick refresher:
...even opinions lose their immunity, when the circumstances in which they are expressed are such as to constitute their expression a positive instigation to some mischievous act. An opinion that corn-dealers are starvers of the poor, or that private property is robbery, ought to be unmolested when simply circulated through the press, but may justly incur punishment when delivered orally to an excited mob assembled before the house of a corn-dealer.
When does the PB Christmas truce begin?0 -
If the Tories left free movement and single market membership permanently in place or even worse reversed Brexit, UKIP would see a quicker revival than Lazarus, probably under a resurrected FarageDadge said:Hyufd said: "basically the Tories go for soft Brexit for 80% of the Parliament to secure anti Corbyn Remainers and protect the economy then go for fuller Brexit ie a FTA that ends free movement under a Leaver a few months before the next general election to ensure Leave voters do not shift from the Tories to UKIP"
Ukip is on life-support and will die on 19 March 2019. It's a Brexiter fantasy that the party has any future significance. It might stand 100 zombie candidates at the next election, but they'll be largely ignored.0 -
How's the €100 billion?williamglenn said:
And that is why we seek a new and equal partnership – between an independent, self-governing, Global Britain and our friends and allies in the EU.CarlottaVance said:
How is the equal partnership turning out?0 -
I’m ambivalent about sub-editors.TheScreamingEagles said:I feel Marie’s pain.
https://twitter.com/youngvulgarian/status/941637627538739200
Many years ago I wrote an article in a pharmaceutical magazine, part of a series I was contracted to do. I titled it 'Prudence and the Pill’ a film which had recently been around the cinemas and mentioned on TV. The sub editor insisted on changing it to ‘Young Prudence and the Pill’.
A few years ago I wrote an article for an (not the) oldies magazine about speaking to students at a Thai university. In the article I emphasised that I was from Essex, but as the word ‘reading’ was in one of the first lines of the article, the sub enititled it ‘From Reading to Bangkok’. Several of my friends asked me why I’d claimed I was from Reading, a town I’ve been to, I think. no more than twice in my life!0 -
Entirely coincidentally, Lammy is black and Soros is Jewish.dixiedean said:Also, is Lammy's a particularly egregious freebie? One would have thought Leave EU would be super wary of casting the first stone.
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Interesting to reread the speech and feel nostalgic for a long gone strong-and-stable era (12 months ago already?) when Brexit meant Brexit and people could still say "Global Britain" and apparently mean it...CarlottaVance said:If only Mrs May had said something like this:
I want this United Kingdom to emerge from this period of change stronger, fairer, more united and more outward-looking than ever before. I want us to be a secure, prosperous, tolerant country - a magnet for international talent and a home to the pioneers and innovators who will shape the world ahead. I want us to be a truly Global Britain – the best friend and neighbour to our European partners, but a country that reaches beyond the borders of Europe too. A country that goes out into the world to build relationships with old friends and new allies alike......
We want to guarantee the rights of EU citizens who are already living in Britain, and the rights of British nationals in other member states, as early as we can.
I have told other EU leaders that we could give people the certainty they want straight away, and reach such a deal now.
Many of them favour such an agreement - one or two others do not - but I want everyone to know that it remains an important priority for Britain – and for many other member states – to resolve this challenge as soon as possible. Because it is the right and fair thing to do.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/01/17/theresa-mays-brexit-speech-full/0 -
I very much doubt it. The transitional period will only be ended when the UK and EU have agreed on a long-term future relationship - all the evidence is that this will take much more than 2 years. It's already 18 months since the referendum and the cabinet has yet to discuss it.HYUFD said:
Yet ended by 2022, the date the next general election is dueanothernick said:FPT
Yes you are right about that of course. The role of rule taker is a very silly position for the UK to get itself into. But I don't think many voters will worry about the detail - all they will see is continuing free movement, EU regulation and all the other trappings of membership.FF43 said:
I disagree. Membership is massively different from participation on a rule-taking basis. Norway is cool with outsourcing the major part of its foreign policy to a third party. I can't see the UK being so easy-going And even so, the Norwegian government thinks its a nonsense. They have to accept it because they know they won't win a referendum on EU membership.
Of course we could decide to end the transition and leave without an agreement in in 2021 but no sane government would go over the economic cliff a year before a general election.
And the EU will have no incentive to hurry the talks - the UK will be continuing to pay into the budget and have no say in the political structure - what's not to like for them?
So the transition will be prolonged.0 -
Yay another "leavers R bad" thread.
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Will Malc bring the whisky?TheScreamingEagles said:
The PB Christmas truce starts on Christmas Eve when I invite PBers around to have pineapple on pizza as we watch that perfect Christmas film Die Hard.kyf_100 said:Sound post. And it's precisely why I refuse to use the T word about anyone here or elsewhere, even as the debate becomes more and more intemperate. It's completely counterproductive, especially when I'm fairly certain the rebels believe they have Britain's best interests at heart. More importantly intemperate language stirs up the mob and it becomes a JS-Mill-Corn-dealer type thing.
A quick refresher:
...even opinions lose their immunity, when the circumstances in which they are expressed are such as to constitute their expression a positive instigation to some mischievous act. An opinion that corn-dealers are starvers of the poor, or that private property is robbery, ought to be unmolested when simply circulated through the press, but may justly incur punishment when delivered orally to an excited mob assembled before the house of a corn-dealer.
When does the PB Christmas truce begin?0 -
You missed the bit criticising Remain supporting Mrs May?TGOHF said:Yay another "leavers R bad" thread.
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No, just turnips.OldKingCole said:
Will Malc bring the whisky?TheScreamingEagles said:
The PB Christmas truce starts on Christmas Eve when I invite PBers around to have pineapple on pizza as we watch that perfect Christmas film Die Hard.kyf_100 said:Sound post. And it's precisely why I refuse to use the T word about anyone here or elsewhere, even as the debate becomes more and more intemperate. It's completely counterproductive, especially when I'm fairly certain the rebels believe they have Britain's best interests at heart. More importantly intemperate language stirs up the mob and it becomes a JS-Mill-Corn-dealer type thing.
A quick refresher:
...even opinions lose their immunity, when the circumstances in which they are expressed are such as to constitute their expression a positive instigation to some mischievous act. An opinion that corn-dealers are starvers of the poor, or that private property is robbery, ought to be unmolested when simply circulated through the press, but may justly incur punishment when delivered orally to an excited mob assembled before the house of a corn-dealer.
When does the PB Christmas truce begin?0 -
I think there is some opportunity to sow discord within the 27 over refugees/migrants.0
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That Leave.EU ad will leave most people nonplussed, and rightly so. It's a dogwhistle to a few paranoiacs on the political fringe that Arron Banks inhabits.0
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"Daddy, what is a Ukip?".
"An extinct species of antelope, once prized for its loud honking call and angry bark".
Good afternoon all.
Given PM May's constraints and her limitations as a politician, she's done reasonably well. I don't think anyone other than the Ultras on each side will continue to get overly exercised by events. /faintpraise.
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Indeed.SouthamObserver said:
Entirely coincidentally, Lammy is black and Soros is Jewish.dixiedean said:Also, is Lammy's a particularly egregious freebie? One would have thought Leave EU would be super wary of casting the first stone.
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FF43 is wrong. Norway do not outsource their foreign policy. Indeed they have more direct control over their foreign and trade policy than the UK does.anothernick said:FPT
Yes you are right about that of course. The role of rule taker is a very silly position for the UK to get itself into. But I don't think many voters will worry about the detail - all they will see is continuing free movement, EU regulation and all the other trappings of membership.FF43 said:
I disagree. Membership is massively different from participation on a rule-taking basis. Norway is cool with outsourcing the major part of its foreign policy to a third party. I can't see the UK being so easy-going And even so, the Norwegian government thinks its a nonsense. They have to accept it because they know they won't win a referendum on EU membership.0 -
Yes - re read it and still can't spot it - which para ?TheScreamingEagles said:
You missed the bit criticising Remain supporting Mrs May?TGOHF said:Yay another "leavers R bad" thread.
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No. The transition period will end in 2021 FTA or no FTA though even if a FTA has not been finalised by then significant progress is likely to have been made on it.anothernick said:
I very much doubt it. The transitional period will only be ended when the UK and EU have agreed on a long-term future relationship - all the evidence is that this will take much more than 2 years. It's already 18 months since the referendum and the cabinet has yet to discuss it.HYUFD said:
Yet ended by 2022, the date the next general election is dueanothernick said:FPT
Yes you are right about that of course. The role of rule taker is a very silly position for the UK to get itself into. But I don't think many voters will worry about the detail - all they will see is continuing free movement, EU regulation and all the other trappings of membership.FF43 said:
I disagree. Membership is massively different from participation on a rule-taking basis. Norway is cool with outsourcing the major part of its foreign policy to a third party. I can't see the UK being so easy-going And even so, the Norwegian government thinks its a nonsense. They have to accept it because they know they won't win a referendum on EU membership.
Of course we could decide to end the transition and leave without an agreement in in 2021 but no sane government would go over the economic cliff a year before a general election.
And the EU will have no incentive to hurry the talks - the UK will be continuing to pay into the budget and have no say in the political structure - what's not to like for them?
So the transition will be prolonged.
The Tories are not going to commit political suicide and still leave free movement and ECJ jurisdiction in place at the time of the next general election0 -
The EU are extremely vague about what they want from a long term relationship with the UK, but regulatory convergence/alignment/equivalence is a hot issue for them. Given the EU will mostly set the terms for any meaningful relationship, I wouldn't dismiss being a rule-taker long term. But that's a discussion for more than one year hence.HYUFD said:
Yet ended by 2022, the date the next general election is dueanothernick said:FPT
Yes you are right about that of course. The role of rule taker is a very silly position for the UK to get itself into. But I don't think many voters will worry about the detail - all they will see is continuing free movement, EU regulation and all the other trappings of membership.FF43 said:
I disagree. Membership is massively different from participation on a rule-taking basis. Norway is cool with outsourcing the major part of its foreign policy to a third party. I can't see the UK being so easy-going And even so, the Norwegian government thinks its a nonsense. They have to accept it because they know they won't win a referendum on EU membership.0 -
We are told by all of those _who know_ that the vote was to keep the foreigners out. How does being "more outward-looking than ever before" square with this. It would be a betrayal, siri?CarlottaVance said:If only Mrs May had said something like this:
I want this United Kingdom to emerge from this period of change stronger, fairer, more united and more outward-looking than ever before. I want us to be a secure, prosperous, tolerant country - a magnet for international talent and a home to the pioneers and innovators who will shape the world ahead. I want us to be a truly Global Britain – the best friend and neighbour to our European partners, but a country that reaches beyond the borders of Europe too. A country that goes out into the world to build relationships with old friends and new allies alike......
We want to guarantee the rights of EU citizens who are already living in Britain, and the rights of British nationals in other member states, as early as we can.
I have told other EU leaders that we could give people the certainty they want straight away, and reach such a deal now.
Many of them favour such an agreement - one or two others do not - but I want everyone to know that it remains an important priority for Britain – and for many other member states – to resolve this challenge as soon as possible. Because it is the right and fair thing to do.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/01/17/theresa-mays-brexit-speech-full/0 -
Mutti (if she's in a job) will be cross:
Austria's incoming right-wing chancellor Sebastian Kurz joined eastern and central European countries on Friday in backing EU President Donald Tusk's rejection of mandatory refugee quotas.
Tusk called the troubled scheme "ineffective" and "highly divisive", in a letter to EU leaders before a summit in Brussels that entered its second day Friday.
https://www.thelocal.at/20171215/austrias-chancellor-in-waiting-sebastian-kurz-sides-with-eu-countries-opposed-to-migrant-quotas
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Excellent header. Agree 100%.0
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Even so, these posters might have been forgotten or implicitly repudiated if May’s government had in its first few weeks and months consciously sought to adopt a conciliatory, friendly and welcoming approach to those left bewildered (at the very least) by the result. And chief among these were the EU citizens who had come here, legally, in good faith, to work and contribute and their families, spouses, friends, colleagues.TGOHF said:
Yes - re read it and still can't spot it - which para ?TheScreamingEagles said:
You missed the bit criticising Remain supporting Mrs May?TGOHF said:Yay another "leavers R bad" thread.
Not to mention those who felt that there was no existential conflict between their identity as British citizens and as EU citizens and resented being forced to choose.0 -
Demolish your own straw menTOPPING said:
We are told by all of those _who know_ that the vote was to keep the foreigners out. How does being "more outward-looking than ever before" square with this. It would be a betrayal, siri?CarlottaVance said:If only Mrs May had said something like this:
I want this United Kingdom to emerge from this period of change stronger, fairer, more united and more outward-looking than ever before. I want us to be a secure, prosperous, tolerant country - a magnet for international talent and a home to the pioneers and innovators who will shape the world ahead. I want us to be a truly Global Britain – the best friend and neighbour to our European partners, but a country that reaches beyond the borders of Europe too. A country that goes out into the world to build relationships with old friends and new allies alike......
We want to guarantee the rights of EU citizens who are already living in Britain, and the rights of British nationals in other member states, as early as we can.
I have told other EU leaders that we could give people the certainty they want straight away, and reach such a deal now.
Many of them favour such an agreement - one or two others do not - but I want everyone to know that it remains an important priority for Britain – and for many other member states – to resolve this challenge as soon as possible. Because it is the right and fair thing to do.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/01/17/theresa-mays-brexit-speech-full/0 -
So no criticism of any remainer other than May ?TheScreamingEagles said:
Even so, these posters might have been forgotten or implicitly repudiated if May’s government had in its first few weeks and months consciously sought to adopt a conciliatory, friendly and welcoming approach to those left bewildered (at the very least) by the result. And chief among these were the EU citizens who had come here, legally, in good faith, to work and contribute and their families, spouses, friends, colleagues.TGOHF said:
Yes - re read it and still can't spot it - which para ?TheScreamingEagles said:
You missed the bit criticising Remain supporting Mrs May?TGOHF said:Yay another "leavers R bad" thread.
Not to mention those who felt that there was no existential conflict between their identity as British citizens and as EU citizens and resented being forced to choose.
I'm unsurprised.0 -
And in the interval (a la Ice Hockey), we will have music by ...TheScreamingEagles said:
The PB Christmas truce starts on Christmas Eve when I invite PBers around to have pineapple on pizza as we watch that perfect Christmas film Die Hard.kyf_100 said:Sound post. And it's precisely why I refuse to use the T word about anyone here or elsewhere, even as the debate becomes more and more intemperate. It's completely counterproductive, especially when I'm fairly certain the rebels believe they have Britain's best interests at heart. More importantly intemperate language stirs up the mob and it becomes a JS-Mill-Corn-dealer type thing.
A quick refresher:
...even opinions lose their immunity, when the circumstances in which they are expressed are such as to constitute their expression a positive instigation to some mischievous act. An opinion that corn-dealers are starvers of the poor, or that private property is robbery, ought to be unmolested when simply circulated through the press, but may justly incur punishment when delivered orally to an excited mob assembled before the house of a corn-dealer.
When does the PB Christmas truce begin?0 -
There’s also criticism of Labour in the second paragraph.TGOHF said:
So no criticism of any remainer other than May ?TheScreamingEagles said:
Even so, these posters might have been forgotten or implicitly repudiated if May’s government had in its first few weeks and months consciously sought to adopt a conciliatory, friendly and welcoming approach to those left bewildered (at the very least) by the result. And chief among these were the EU citizens who had come here, legally, in good faith, to work and contribute and their families, spouses, friends, colleagues.TGOHF said:
Yes - re read it and still can't spot it - which para ?TheScreamingEagles said:
You missed the bit criticising Remain supporting Mrs May?TGOHF said:Yay another "leavers R bad" thread.
Not to mention those who felt that there was no existential conflict between their identity as British citizens and as EU citizens and resented being forced to choose.
I'm unsurprised.0 -
Perhaps we should start realising that the people who think they are the people 'who know', don't.TOPPING said:
We are told by all of those _who know_ that the vote was to keep the foreigners out. How does being "more outward-looking than ever before" square with this. It would be a betrayal, siri?CarlottaVance said:If only Mrs May had said something like this:
I want this United Kingdom to emerge from this period of change stronger, fairer, more united and more outward-looking than ever before. I want us to be a secure, prosperous, tolerant country - a magnet for international talent and a home to the pioneers and innovators who will shape the world ahead. I want us to be a truly Global Britain – the best friend and neighbour to our European partners, but a country that reaches beyond the borders of Europe too. A country that goes out into the world to build relationships with old friends and new allies alike......
We want to guarantee the rights of EU citizens who are already living in Britain, and the rights of British nationals in other member states, as early as we can.
I have told other EU leaders that we could give people the certainty they want straight away, and reach such a deal now.
Many of them favour such an agreement - one or two others do not - but I want everyone to know that it remains an important priority for Britain – and for many other member states – to resolve this challenge as soon as possible. Because it is the right and fair thing to do.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/01/17/theresa-mays-brexit-speech-full/0 -
The problem is, that all of that does not square with stopping foreigners coming here. Now, you may say that it's best that fewer foreigners come here (largely white ones with a similar and shared belief system as us). But it is a very difficult message to send to the foreigners, assuming you want them, to say come hither and oh by the way we as a country have just voted to have fewer of you.CarlottaVance said:
Demolish your own straw menTOPPING said:
We are told by all of those _who know_ that the vote was to keep the foreigners out. How does being "more outward-looking than ever before" square with this. It would be a betrayal, siri?CarlottaVance said:If only Mrs May had said something like this:
I want this United Kingdom to emerge from this period of change stronger, fairer, more united and more outward-looking than ever before. I want us to be a secure, prosperous, tolerant country - a magnet for international talent and a home to the pioneers and innovators who will shape the world ahead. I want us to be a truly Global Britain – the best friend and neighbour to our European partners, but a country that reaches beyond the borders of Europe too. A country that goes out into the world to build relationships with old friends and new allies alike......
We want to guarantee the rights of EU citizens who are already living in Britain, and the rights of British nationals in other member states, as early as we can.
I have told other EU leaders that we could give people the certainty they want straight away, and reach such a deal now.
Many of them favour such an agreement - one or two others do not - but I want everyone to know that it remains an important priority for Britain – and for many other member states – to resolve this challenge as soon as possible. Because it is the right and fair thing to do.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/01/17/theresa-mays-brexit-speech-full/
Innit0 -
2 Unlimited.TOPPING said:
And in the interval (a la Ice Hockey), we will have music by ...TheScreamingEagles said:
The PB Christmas truce starts on Christmas Eve when I invite PBers around to have pineapple on pizza as we watch that perfect Christmas film Die Hard.kyf_100 said:Sound post. And it's precisely why I refuse to use the T word about anyone here or elsewhere, even as the debate becomes more and more intemperate. It's completely counterproductive, especially when I'm fairly certain the rebels believe they have Britain's best interests at heart. More importantly intemperate language stirs up the mob and it becomes a JS-Mill-Corn-dealer type thing.
A quick refresher:
...even opinions lose their immunity, when the circumstances in which they are expressed are such as to constitute their expression a positive instigation to some mischievous act. An opinion that corn-dealers are starvers of the poor, or that private property is robbery, ought to be unmolested when simply circulated through the press, but may justly incur punishment when delivered orally to an excited mob assembled before the house of a corn-dealer.
When does the PB Christmas truce begin?0 -
I know of no authority that thinks an FTA can be finalised and ratified in 2 years. And if there is no FTA then there will be a cliff edge, which will be no more palatable in 2021 than it is now. If the government was going to jump it would do it now, not a year before the next election.HYUFD said:
No. The transition period will end in 2021 FTA or no FTA though even if a FTA has not been finalised by then significant progress is likely to have been made on it.
The Tories are not going to commit political suicide and still leave free movement and ECJ jurisdiction in place at the time of the next general election
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Norway has no direct input into any EEA-related regulation and legislation. In practice the government and parliament don't even discuss what they want from it because they know it will be ignored. This is in contrast to EU membership as we had, where we had direct input.Richard_Tyndall said:
FF43 is wrong. Norway do not outsource their foreign policy. Indeed they have more direct control over their foreign and trade policy than the UK does.anothernick said:FPT
Yes you are right about that of course. The role of rule taker is a very silly position for the UK to get itself into. But I don't think many voters will worry about the detail - all they will see is continuing free movement, EU regulation and all the other trappings of membership.FF43 said:
I disagree. Membership is massively different from participation on a rule-taking basis. Norway is cool with outsourcing the major part of its foreign policy to a third party. I can't see the UK being so easy-going And even so, the Norwegian government thinks its a nonsense. They have to accept it because they know they won't win a referendum on EU membership.
To avoid pointless discussions about how much of Norway's foreign policy is covered by its EEA participation I will correct my original post to Norway is cool with outsourcing A major part of its foreign policy to a third party - rather than THE major part.0 -
Kurz is the new charismatic leader of Europe's right as Macron is the new charismatic leader of Europe's liberal left, Merkel is becoming old newsCarlottaVance said:Mutti (if she's in a job) will be cross:
Austria's incoming right-wing chancellor Sebastian Kurz joined eastern and central European countries on Friday in backing EU President Donald Tusk's rejection of mandatory refugee quotas.
Tusk called the troubled scheme "ineffective" and "highly divisive", in a letter to EU leaders before a summit in Brussels that entered its second day Friday.
https://www.thelocal.at/20171215/austrias-chancellor-in-waiting-sebastian-kurz-sides-with-eu-countries-opposed-to-migrant-quotas0 -
NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOORichard_Tyndall said:
Perhaps we should start realising that the people who think they are the people 'who know', don't.TOPPING said:
We are told by all of those _who know_ that the vote was to keep the foreigners out. How does being "more outward-looking than ever before" square with this. It would be a betrayal, siri?CarlottaVance said:If only Mrs May had said something like this:
I want this United Kingdom to emerge from this period of change stronger, fairer, more united and more outward-looking than ever before. I want us to be a secure, prosperous, tolerant country - a magnet for international talent and a home to the pioneers and innovators who will shape the world ahead. I want us to be a truly Global Britain – the best friend and neighbour to our European partners, but a country that reaches beyond the borders of Europe too. A country that goes out into the world to build relationships with old friends and new allies alike......
We want to guarantee the rights of EU citizens who are already living in Britain, and the rights of British nationals in other member states, as early as we can.
I have told other EU leaders that we could give people the certainty they want straight away, and reach such a deal now.
Many of them favour such an agreement - one or two others do not - but I want everyone to know that it remains an important priority for Britain – and for many other member states – to resolve this challenge as soon as possible. Because it is the right and fair thing to do.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/01/17/theresa-mays-brexit-speech-full/
Please say it isn't so. They have assured me!0 -
Polling frenzy in Catalonia on the last day they can be published - looking like a >80% turnout:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Catalan_regional_election,_2017#Opinion_polls0 -
Kerching.
The Royal Wedding is on the 19th of May.0 -
@SkyNewsBreak: Kensington Palace has confirmed Prince Harry and Meghan Markle will marry on 19 May 2018 at St George's Chapel in Windsor Castle0
-
Agreed. May has just about kept the Brexit show on the road.John_M said:"Daddy, what is a Ukip?".
"An extinct species of antelope, once prized for its loud honking call and angry bark".
Good afternoon all.
Given PM May's constraints and her limitations as a politician, she's done reasonably well. I don't think anyone other than the Ultras on each side will continue to get overly exercised by events. /faintpraise.0 -
No, business just wanted a transition period to prepare which it is getting. The Tories are not going to lose large numbers of Tory Leave voters to UKIP at the next general election by leaving free movement and ECJ jurisdiction in place which is why the transition period will end by the date of the next general election even if FTA talks are ongoinganothernick said:
I know of no authority that thinks an FTA can be finalised and ratified in 2 years. And if there is no FTA then there will be a cliff edge, which will be no more palatable in 2021 than it is now. If the government was going to jump it would do it now, not a year before the next election.HYUFD said:
No. The transition period will end in 2021 FTA or no FTA though even if a FTA has not been finalised by then significant progress is likely to have been made on it.
The Tories are not going to commit political suicide and still leave free movement and ECJ jurisdiction in place at the time of the next general election0 -
For anti-semitic behaviour 3 decades ago ? Now there is something that isn't in a transition phase.TheScreamingEagles said:
There’s also criticism of Labour in the second paragraph.TGOHF said:
So no criticism of any remainer other than May ?TheScreamingEagles said:
Even so, these posters might have been forgotten or implicitly repudiated if May’s government had in its first few weeks and months consciously sought to adopt a conciliatory, friendly and welcoming approach to those left bewildered (at the very least) by the result. And chief among these were the EU citizens who had come here, legally, in good faith, to work and contribute and their families, spouses, friends, colleagues.TGOHF said:
Yes - re read it and still can't spot it - which para ?TheScreamingEagles said:
You missed the bit criticising Remain supporting Mrs May?TGOHF said:Yay another "leavers R bad" thread.
Not to mention those who felt that there was no existential conflict between their identity as British citizens and as EU citizens and resented being forced to choose.
I'm unsurprised.
0 -
A decade ago and currently.TGOHF said:
For anti-semitic behaviour 3 decades ago ? Now there is something that isn't in a transition phase.TheScreamingEagles said:
There’s also criticism of Labour in the second paragraph.TGOHF said:
So no criticism of any remainer other than May ?TheScreamingEagles said:
Even so, these posters might have been forgotten or implicitly repudiated if May’s government had in its first few weeks and months consciously sought to adopt a conciliatory, friendly and welcoming approach to those left bewildered (at the very least) by the result. And chief among these were the EU citizens who had come here, legally, in good faith, to work and contribute and their families, spouses, friends, colleagues.TGOHF said:
Yes - re read it and still can't spot it - which para ?TheScreamingEagles said:
You missed the bit criticising Remain supporting Mrs May?TGOHF said:Yay another "leavers R bad" thread.
Not to mention those who felt that there was no existential conflict between their identity as British citizens and as EU citizens and resented being forced to choose.
I'm unsurprised.0 -
So long as the Wireless Craniums don't put in an appearance....TheScreamingEagles said:
2 Unlimited.TOPPING said:
And in the interval (a la Ice Hockey), we will have music by ...TheScreamingEagles said:
The PB Christmas truce starts on Christmas Eve when I invite PBers around to have pineapple on pizza as we watch that perfect Christmas film Die Hard.kyf_100 said:Sound post. And it's precisely why I refuse to use the T word about anyone here or elsewhere, even as the debate becomes more and more intemperate. It's completely counterproductive, especially when I'm fairly certain the rebels believe they have Britain's best interests at heart. More importantly intemperate language stirs up the mob and it becomes a JS-Mill-Corn-dealer type thing.
A quick refresher:
...even opinions lose their immunity, when the circumstances in which they are expressed are such as to constitute their expression a positive instigation to some mischievous act. An opinion that corn-dealers are starvers of the poor, or that private property is robbery, ought to be unmolested when simply circulated through the press, but may justly incur punishment when delivered orally to an excited mob assembled before the house of a corn-dealer.
When does the PB Christmas truce begin?
0 -
^^^ this.HYUFD said:
The Tories are not going to lose large numbers of Tory Leave voters to UKIP at the next general election by leaving free movement and ECJ jurisdiction in place which is why the transition period will end by the date of the next general election even if FTA talks are ongoinganothernick said:
I know of no authority that thinks an FTA can be finalised and ratified in 2 years. And if there is no FTA then there will be a cliff edge, which will be no more palatable in 2021 than it is now. If the government was going to jump it would do it now, not a year before the next election.HYUFD said:
No. The transition period will end in 2021 FTA or no FTA though even if a FTA has not been finalised by then significant progress is likely to have been made on it.
The Tories are not going to commit political suicide and still leave free movement and ECJ jurisdiction in place at the time of the next general election
0 -
In practice, restrictions on free movement are going to be so slight that few will notice the difference. At most, we will be able to get rid of a few Romanian beggars and tweak benefit entitlements a bit...though even this might be difficult under the "regulatory equivalence" that we've agreed to. But the fields will still be full of Latvian strawberry pickers and Pret A Manger will still have its thousands of charming Italian and Spanish baristas. The hard Leave voters who expected a wholesale clearout of foreigners are going to be very disappointed, whether or not free movement can be said to have technically ended.HYUFD said:
No, business just wanted a transition period to prepare which it is getting. The Tories are not going to lose large numbers of Tory Leave voters to UKIP at the next general election by leaving free movement and ECJ jurisdiction in place which is why the transition period will end by the date of the next general election even if FTA talks are ongoinganothernick said:
I know of no authority that thinks an FTA can be finalised and ratified in 2 years. And if there is no FTA then there will be a cliff edge, which will be no more palatable in 2021 than it is now. If the government was going to jump it would do it now, not a year before the next election.HYUFD said:
No. The transition period will end in 2021 FTA or no FTA though even if a FTA has not been finalised by then significant progress is likely to have been made on it.
The Tories are not going to commit political suicide and still leave free movement and ECJ jurisdiction in place at the time of the next general election0 -
Only a minority even of Leavers wanted mass deportations. A work permits system focused on skills we need is what voters wantHHemmelig said:
In practice, restrictions on free movement are going to be so slight that few will notice the difference. At most, we will be able to get rid of a few Romanian beggars and tweak benefit entitlements a bit...though even this might be difficult under the "regulatory equivalence" that we've agreed to. But the fields will still be full of Latvian strawberry pickers and Pret A Manger will still have its thousands of charming Italian and Spanish baristas. The hard Leave voters who expected a wholesale clearout of foreigners are going to be very disappointed, whether or not free movement can be said to have technically ended.HYUFD said:
No, business just wanted a transition period to prepare which it is getting. The Tories are not going to lose large numbers of Tory Leave voters to UKIP at the next general election by leaving free movement and ECJ jurisdiction in place which is why the transition period will end by the date of the next general election even if FTA talks are ongoinganothernick said:
I know of no authority that thinks an FTA can be finalised and ratified in 2 years. And if there is no FTA then there will be a cliff edge, which will be no more palatable in 2021 than it is now. If the government was going to jump it would do it now, not a year before the next election.HYUFD said:
No. The transition period will end in 2021 FTA or no FTA though even if a FTA has not been finalised by then significant progress is likely to have been made on it.
The Tories are not going to commit political suicide and still leave free movement and ECJ jurisdiction in place at the time of the next general election0 -
So you forsee hard Brexit in 2021?HYUFD said:
No, business just wanted a transition period to prepare which it is getting. The Tories are not going to lose large numbers of Tory Leave voters to UKIP at the next general election by leaving free movement and ECJ jurisdiction in place which is why the transition period will end by the date of the next general election even if FTA talks are ongoing0 -
A very clear explanation of the Bitcoin energy use problem (and incidentally why it has nothing to do with block chain technology per se):
https://www.wired.com/story/bitcoin-global-warming/0 -
If you stopped listening to the strange voices inside your head and started listening to what other people actually say you'd make a lot more sense yourself. Also possibly less bitter.TOPPING said:
The problem is, that all of that does not square with stopping foreigners coming here. Now, you may say that it's best that fewer foreigners come here (largely white ones with a similar and shared belief system as us). But it is a very difficult message to send to the foreigners, assuming you want them, to say come hither and oh by the way we as a country have just voted to have fewer of you.CarlottaVance said:
Demolish your own straw menTOPPING said:
We are told by all of those _who know_ that the vote was to keep the foreigners out. How does being "more outward-looking than ever before" square with this. It would be a betrayal, siri?CarlottaVance said:If only Mrs May had said something like this:
I want this United Kingdom to emerge from this period of change stronger, fairer, more united and more outward-looking than ever before. I want us to be a secure, prosperous, tolerant country - a magnet for international talent and a home to the pioneers and innovators who will shape the world ahead. I want us to be a truly Global Britain – the best friend and neighbour to our European partners, but a country that reaches beyond the borders of Europe too. A country that goes out into the world to build relationships with old friends and new allies alike......
We want to guarantee the rights of EU citizens who are already living in Britain, and the rights of British nationals in other member states, as early as we can.
I have told other EU leaders that we could give people the certainty they want straight away, and reach such a deal now.
Many of them favour such an agreement - one or two others do not - but I want everyone to know that it remains an important priority for Britain – and for many other member states – to resolve this challenge as soon as possible. Because it is the right and fair thing to do.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/01/17/theresa-mays-brexit-speech-full/
Innit0 -
A related point: Leave may have won the vote but they have already completely lost the culture war. In coming generations, Brexit will be seen as an act of malevolent and insular stupidity (thanks in large part to the manner in which the referendum was fought). Future fairy tales will cast Nigel Farage as Maleficent.
The country will move on when the Conservative party is abandoned on Vagra II.0 -
Until a FTA is agreed if necessary yesanothernick said:
So you forsee hard Brexit in 2021?HYUFD said:
No, business just wanted a transition period to prepare which it is getting. The Tories are not going to lose large numbers of Tory Leave voters to UKIP at the next general election by leaving free movement and ECJ jurisdiction in place which is why the transition period will end by the date of the next general election even if FTA talks are ongoing0 -
The future of the Tory party speaks, I hope anyway.
https://twitter.com/RoryStewartUK/status/9416618517876776960 -
Or just as likely most of Scandinavia and Eastern Europe will also have left the EU (maybe for an enlarged EFTA with the UK) as it moves towards a United States of Europe and maybe even Italy will have left the Euro tooAlastairMeeks said:A related point: Leave may have won the vote but they have already completely lost the culture war. In coming generations, Brexit will be seen as an act of malevolent and insular stupidity (thanks in large part to the manner in which the referendum was fought). Future fairy tales will cast Nigel Farage as Maleficent.
The country will move on when the Conservative party is abandoned on Vagra II.0 -
Only a minority of Leavers yes - perhaps 20% - but that is still a lot of voters, the majority of whom will have voted Tory or UKIP in 2017. Given what May agreed last week, there is no way that we are going to be able to establish a meaningful work permit system with regard to EU workers - unless it is merely a formality whereby the EU immigrant asks for a permit and is automatically granted one. That is the system in Norway by the way, and I expect the government may set up something similar.HYUFD said:
Only a minority even of Leavers wanted mass deportations. A work permits system focused on skills we need is what voters wantHHemmelig said:
In practice, restrictions on free movement are going to be so slight that few will notice the difference. At most, we will be able to get rid of a few Romanian beggars and tweak benefit entitlements a bit...though even this might be difficult under the "regulatory equivalence" that we've agreed to. But the fields will still be full of Latvian strawberry pickers and Pret A Manger will still have its thousands of charming Italian and Spanish baristas. The hard Leave voters who expected a wholesale clearout of foreigners are going to be very disappointed, whether or not free movement can be said to have technically ended.HYUFD said:
No, business just wanted a transition period to prepare which it is getting. The Tories are not going to lose large numbers of Tory Leave voters to UKIP at the next general election by leaving free movement and ECJ jurisdiction in place which is why the transition period will end by the date of the next general election even if FTA talks are ongoinganothernick said:
I know of no authority that thinks an FTA can be finalised and ratified in 2 years. And if there is no FTA then there will be a cliff edge, which will be no more palatable in 2021 than it is now. If the government was going to jump it would do it now, not a year before the next election.HYUFD said:
No. The transition period will end in 2021 FTA or no FTA though even if a FTA has not been finalised by then significant progress is likely to have been made on it.
The Tories are not going to commit political suicide and still leave free movement and ECJ jurisdiction in place at the time of the next general election0 -
I'm a mild man, but that makes me bitter.felix said:
If you stopped listening to the strange voices inside your head and started listening to what other people actually say you'd make a lot more sense yourself. Also possibly less bitter.TOPPING said:
The problem is, that all of that does not square with stopping foreigners coming here. Now, you may say that it's best that fewer foreigners come here (largely white ones with a similar and shared belief system as us). But it is a very difficult message to send to the foreigners, assuming you want them, to say come hither and oh by the way we as a country have just voted to have fewer of you.CarlottaVance said:
Demolish your own straw menTOPPING said:
We are told by all of those _who know_ that the vote was to keep the foreigners out. How does being "more outward-looking than ever before" square with this. It would be a betrayal, siri?CarlottaVance said:If only Mrs May had said something like this:
I want this United Kingdom to emerge from this period of change stronger, fairer, more united and more outward-looking than ever before. I want us to be a secure, prosperous, tolerant country - a magnet for international talent and a home to the pioneers and innovators who will shape the world ahead. I want us to be a truly Global Britain – the best friend and neighbour to our European partners, but a country that reaches beyond the borders of Europe too. A country that goes out into the world to build relationships with old friends and new allies alike......
We want to guarantee the rights of EU citizens who are already living in Britain, and the rights of British nationals in other member states, as early as we can.
I have told other EU leaders that we could give people the certainty they want straight away, and reach such a deal now.
Many of them favour such an agreement - one or two others do not - but I want everyone to know that it remains an important priority for Britain – and for many other member states – to resolve this challenge as soon as possible. Because it is the right and fair thing to do.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/01/17/theresa-mays-brexit-speech-full/
Innit
What noises? What strange? What?
What are you talking about - you are trying to construct an alternative history whereby we didn't just vote to leave the EU because we don't like foreigners. Now don't get me wrong, it doesn't make me feel exactly wonderful either - but we have to listen to the experts, to the guy on QT last night, to our very own XXXXX. We as a country voted to leave because of the furriners.
And that is a tricky message to sell if you also want to sell the open, outward-looking message also.0 -
And people tell me the monarchy is a force for good.
https://twitter.com/WoodwardRJ/status/9416595488715202560 -
Do you think she maybe meant between Scylla and Charybdis ?rkrkrk said:
If it made you feel instinctively superior - then it has served its purpose.TheScreamingEagles said:I feel Marie’s pain.
https://twitter.com/youngvulgarian/status/941637627538739200
Was Sysiphus not the guy with the stone?0 -
The biggest mass murderers in history, Hitler, Stalin and Mao have all been non monarchical heads of state. Arguably Oliver Cromwell killed more than Henry VIIITheScreamingEagles said:And people tell me the monarchy is a force for good.
https://twitter.com/WoodwardRJ/status/9416595488715202560 -
They do, though. It is because you are a member of the dormant sheeple that you deny this.Richard_Tyndall said:
Perhaps we should start realising that the people who think they are the people 'who know', don't.TOPPING said:
We are told by all of those _who know_ that the vote was to keep the foreigners out. How does being "more outward-looking than ever before" square with this. It would be a betrayal, siri?CarlottaVance said:If only Mrs May had said something like this:
I want this United Kingdom to emerge from this period of change stronger, fairer, more united and more outward-looking than ever before. I want us to be a secure, prosperous, tolerant country - a magnet for international talent and a home to the pioneers and innovators who will shape the world ahead. I want us to be a truly Global Britain – the best friend and neighbour to our European partners, but a country that reaches beyond the borders of Europe too. A country that goes out into the world to build relationships with old friends and new allies alike......
We want to guarantee the rights of EU citizens who are already living in Britain, and the rights of British nationals in other member states, as early as we can.
I have told other EU leaders that we could give people the certainty they want straight away, and reach such a deal now.
Many of them favour such an agreement - one or two others do not - but I want everyone to know that it remains an important priority for Britain – and for many other member states – to resolve this challenge as soon as possible. Because it is the right and fair thing to do.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/01/17/theresa-mays-brexit-speech-full/0 -
I was half wondering that - there is definitely a sentence to write including Sisyphus and Pyhrrus but I'm not sure if the one she wrote was it!DavidL said:
Do you think she maybe meant between Scylla and Charybdis ?rkrkrk said:
If it made you feel instinctively superior - then it has served its purpose.TheScreamingEagles said:I feel Marie’s pain.
https://twitter.com/youngvulgarian/status/941637627538739200
Was Sysiphus not the guy with the stone?0 -
Excellent header. Equal firmness was needed against newspapers calling judges enemies of the people as with those wanting to just ignore the referendum. No way back from that - citizens of nowhere and letting those headlines passed has move the government into territory where MPs can call for others to be deselected for not believing enough in Brexit.
We'd be in a much better place as a country if T May had adopted that approach from day 1.
And with that, work Christmas lunch time - see you later.0 -
It is nowhere near the same number as the roughly 80 to 90% of Leave voters who wanted to end free movement, most of whom voted Tory or UKIP in 2017 too.HHemmelig said:
Only a minority of Leavers yes - perhaps 20% - but that is still a lot of voters, the majority of whom will have voted Tory or UKIP in 2017. Given what May agreed last week, there is no way that we are going to be able to establish a meaningful work permit system with regard to EU workers - unless it is merely a formality whereby the EU immigrant asks for a permit and is automatically granted one. That is the system in Norway by the way, and I expect the government may set up something similar.HYUFD said:
Only a minority even of Leavers wanted mass deportations. A work permits system focused on skills we need is what voters wantHHemmelig said:
In practice, restrictions on free movement are going to be so slight that few will notice the difference. At most, we will be able to get rid of a few Romanian beggars and tweak benefit entitlements a bit...though even this might be difficult under the "regulatory equivalence" that we've agreed to. But the fields will still be full of Latvian strawberry pickers and Pret A Manger will still have its thousands of charming Italian and Spanish baristas. The hard Leave voters who expected a wholesale clearout of foreigners are going to be very disappointed, whether or not free movement can be said to have technically ended.HYUFD said:
No, business just wanted a transition period to prepare which it is getting. The Tories are not going to lose large numbers of Tory Leave voters to UKIP at the next general election by leaving free movement and ECJ jurisdiction in place which is why the transition period will end by the date of the next general election even if FTA talks are ongoinganothernick said:
I know of no authority that thinks an FTA can be finalised and ratified in 2 years. And if there is no FTA then there will be a cliff edge, which will be no more palatable in 2021 than it is now. If the government was going to jump it would do it now, not a year before the next election.HYUFD said:
No. The transition period will end in 2021 FTA or no FTA though even if a FTA has not been finalised by then significant progress is likely to have been made on it.
The Tories are not going to commit political suicide and still leave free movement and ECJ jurisdiction in place at the time of the next general election
Once we leave the single market in 2021 (unlike Norway which is in the single market) a work permits system will be implemented without problems0 -
Nobody "wins" the culture war. It's just an ever increasing cycle of animosity amplified by social media that leads to unreasonable polarisation and refusal to compromise or see things from the other side's point of view.AlastairMeeks said:A related point: Leave may have won the vote but they have already completely lost the culture war. In coming generations, Brexit will be seen as an act of malevolent and insular stupidity (thanks in large part to the manner in which the referendum was fought). Future fairy tales will cast Nigel Farage as Maleficent.
The country will move on when the Conservative party is abandoned on Vagra II.0 -
I think it fair to say the fish industry as a whole will be left worse off by Brexit, even if the deep sea fishermen catching quota fish may be slightly better off.
https://twitter.com/AllieRenison/status/9416260714511360010 -
Kurz... Austria having its Heart of Darkness moment ?HYUFD said:
Kurz is the new charismatic leader of Europe's right as Macron is the new charismatic leader of Europe's liberal left, Merkel is becoming old newsCarlottaVance said:Mutti (if she's in a job) will be cross:
Austria's incoming right-wing chancellor Sebastian Kurz joined eastern and central European countries on Friday in backing EU President Donald Tusk's rejection of mandatory refugee quotas.
Tusk called the troubled scheme "ineffective" and "highly divisive", in a letter to EU leaders before a summit in Brussels that entered its second day Friday.
https://www.thelocal.at/20171215/austrias-chancellor-in-waiting-sebastian-kurz-sides-with-eu-countries-opposed-to-migrant-quotas
0 -
You are, of course, correct.DavidL said:
Do you think she maybe meant between Scylla and Charybdis ?rkrkrk said:
If it made you feel instinctively superior - then it has served its purpose.TheScreamingEagles said:I feel Marie’s pain.
https://twitter.com/youngvulgarian/status/941637627538739200
Was Sysiphus not the guy with the stone?
Unless the joke is more subtle than we can get... ??
0 -
Had Remain won a narrow victory, that logic would stand up, but Leave made the mistake of winning, so now they we have something whose success or failure can be judged relatively objectively.kyf_100 said:
Nobody "wins" the culture war. It's just an ever increasing cycle of animosity amplified by social media that leads to unreasonable polarisation and refusal to compromise or see things from the other side's point of view.AlastairMeeks said:A related point: Leave may have won the vote but they have already completely lost the culture war. In coming generations, Brexit will be seen as an act of malevolent and insular stupidity (thanks in large part to the manner in which the referendum was fought). Future fairy tales will cast Nigel Farage as Maleficent.
The country will move on when the Conservative party is abandoned on Vagra II.
Their Pyrrhic victory has merely landed them with the Sisyphean task of justifying why they cannot deliver what was promised.0 -
That was Kurtz not KurzNigelb said:
Kurz... Austria having its Heart of Darkness moment ?HYUFD said:
Kurz is the new charismatic leader of Europe's right as Macron is the new charismatic leader of Europe's liberal left, Merkel is becoming old newsCarlottaVance said:Mutti (if she's in a job) will be cross:
Austria's incoming right-wing chancellor Sebastian Kurz joined eastern and central European countries on Friday in backing EU President Donald Tusk's rejection of mandatory refugee quotas.
Tusk called the troubled scheme "ineffective" and "highly divisive", in a letter to EU leaders before a summit in Brussels that entered its second day Friday.
https://www.thelocal.at/20171215/austrias-chancellor-in-waiting-sebastian-kurz-sides-with-eu-countries-opposed-to-migrant-quotas0 -
HYUFD said:
A work permit system that will be nothing more than a formality, therefore a meaningless sop for the sake of appearances which will have no impact on the immigration stats.HHemmelig said:
It is nowhere near the same number as the roughly 80 to 90% of Leave voters who wanted to end free movement, most of whom voted Tory or UKIP in 2017 too.HYUFD said:
Only a minority of Leavers yes - perhaps 20% - but that is still a lot of voters, the majority of whom will have voted Tory or UKIP in 2017. Given what May agreed last week, there is no way that we are going to be able to establish a meaningful work permit system with regard to EU workers - unless it is merely a formality whereby the EU immigrant asks for a permit and is automatically granted one. That is the system in Norway by the way, and I expect the government may set up something similar.HHemmelig said:
Only a minority even of Leavers wanted mass deportations. A work permits system focused on skills we need is what voters wantHYUFD said:
In practice, restrictions on free movement are going to be so slight that few will notice the difference. At most, we will be able to get rid of a few Romanian beggars and tweak benefit entitlements a bit...though even this might be difficult under the "regulatory equivalence" that we've agreed to. But the fields will still be full of Latvian strawberry pickers and Pret A Manger will still have its thousands of charming Italian and Spanish baristas. The hard Leave voters who expected a wholesale clearout of foreigners are going to be very disappointed, whether or not free movement can be said to have technically ended.anothernick said:
No, business just wanted a transition period to prepare which it is getting. The Tories are not going to lose large numbers of Tory Leave voters to UKIP at the next general election by leaving free movement and ECJ jurisdiction in place which is why the transition period will end by the date of the next general election even if FTA talks are ongoingHYUFD said:
Once we leave the single market in 2021 (unlike Norway which is in the single market) a work permits system will be implemented without problems
Ditto we may be officially out of the single market but we will still be totally aligned with it as per May's deal last week.
We are headed for Norway brexit in all but name.0 -
HHemmelig said:
No. Free movement means any EU citizen can come here to work, travel or study, live or even look for work for 3 months. Work permits will only be given to those whose skills the UK needs. Norway has to accept free movementHYUFD said:
A work permit system that will be nothing more than a formality, therefore a meaningless sop for the sake of appearances which will have no impact on the immigration stats.HHemmelig said:
It is nowhere near the same number as the roughly 80 to 90% of Leave voters who wanted to end free movement, most of whom voted Tory or UKIP in 2017 too.HYUFD said:
Only a minority of Leavers yes - perhaps 20% - but that is still a lot of voters, the majority of whom will have voted Tory or UKIP in 2017. Given what May agreed last week, there is no way that we are going to be able to establish a meaningful work permit system with regard to EU workers - unless it is merely a formality whereby the EU immigrant asks for a permit and is automatically granted one. That is the system in Norway by the way, and I expect the government may set up something similar.HHemmelig said:
Only a minority even of Leavers wanted mass deportations. A work permits system focused on skills we need is what voters wantHYUFD said:
In practice, restrictions on free movement are going to be so slight that few will notice the difference. At most, we will be able to get rid of a few Romanian beggars and tweak benefit entitlements a bit...though even this might be difficult under the "regulatory equivalence" that we've agreed to. But the fields will still be full of Latvian strawberry pickers and Pret A Manger will still have its thousands of charming Italian and Spanish baristas. The hard Leave voters who expected a wholesale clearout of foreigners are going to be very disappointed, whether or not free movement can be said to have technically ended.anothernick said:
No, business just wanted a transition period to prepare which it is getting. The Tories are not going to lose large numbers of Tory Leave voters to UKIP at the next general election by leaving free movement and ECJ jurisdiction in place which is why the transition period will end by the date of the next general election even if FTA talks are ongoingHYUFD said:
Once we leave the single market in 2021 (unlike Norway which is in the single market) a work permits system will be implemented without problems
Ditto we may be officially out of the single market but we will still be totally aligned with it as per May's deal last week.
We are headed for Norway brexit in all but name.0 -
You quibble, sir.HYUFD said:
That was Kurtz not KurzNigelb said:
Kurz... Austria having its Heart of Darkness moment ?HYUFD said:
Kurz is the new charismatic leader of Europe's right as Macron is the new charismatic leader of Europe's liberal left, Merkel is becoming old newsCarlottaVance said:Mutti (if she's in a job) will be cross:
Austria's incoming right-wing chancellor Sebastian Kurz joined eastern and central European countries on Friday in backing EU President Donald Tusk's rejection of mandatory refugee quotas.
Tusk called the troubled scheme "ineffective" and "highly divisive", in a letter to EU leaders before a summit in Brussels that entered its second day Friday.
https://www.thelocal.at/20171215/austrias-chancellor-in-waiting-sebastian-kurz-sides-with-eu-countries-opposed-to-migrant-quotas
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Directly on topic, a thread from Theo Bertram explaining that it's not just winning the campaign but how you campaign that matters:
https://twitter.com/theobertram/status/9416418669567303680 -
Yes, that's a sentence with both that actually makes sense. It's wrong of course but it makes sense. I don't think her's ever did. No wonder the sub editor cut it.williamglenn said:
Had Remain won a narrow victory, that logic would stand up, but Leave made the mistake of winning, so now they we have something whose success or failure can be judged relatively objectively.kyf_100 said:
Nobody "wins" the culture war. It's just an ever increasing cycle of animosity amplified by social media that leads to unreasonable polarisation and refusal to compromise or see things from the other side's point of view.AlastairMeeks said:A related point: Leave may have won the vote but they have already completely lost the culture war. In coming generations, Brexit will be seen as an act of malevolent and insular stupidity (thanks in large part to the manner in which the referendum was fought). Future fairy tales will cast Nigel Farage as Maleficent.
The country will move on when the Conservative party is abandoned on Vagra II.
Their Pyrrhic victory has merely landed them with the Sisyphean task of justifying why they cannot deliver what was promised.0 -
I thought Brexit would make very little difference to the levels of immigration, beyond recessionary effects. I was wrong. You can effectively reduce immigration simply by creating an unwelcoming atmosphere. I wouldn't say it is "control" and the more valuable immigrants with choices will stay away. It isn't a Britain I really want to be a part of. But it does get the numbers down.TOPPING said:The problem is, that all of that does not square with stopping foreigners coming here. Now, you may say that it's best that fewer foreigners come here (largely white ones with a similar and shared belief system as us). But it is a very difficult message to send to the foreigners, assuming you want them, to say come hither and oh by the way we as a country have just voted to have fewer of you.
Innit
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Brexit can't be deliveredwilliamglenn said:
Had Remain won a narrow victory, that logic would stand up, but Leave made the mistake of winning, so now they we have something whose success or failure can be judged relatively objectively.kyf_100 said:
Nobody "wins" the culture war. It's just an ever increasing cycle of animosity amplified by social media that leads to unreasonable polarisation and refusal to compromise or see things from the other side's point of view.AlastairMeeks said:A related point: Leave may have won the vote but they have already completely lost the culture war. In coming generations, Brexit will be seen as an act of malevolent and insular stupidity (thanks in large part to the manner in which the referendum was fought). Future fairy tales will cast Nigel Farage as Maleficent.
The country will move on when the Conservative party is abandoned on Vagra II.
Their Pyrrhic victory has merely landed them with the Sisyphean task of justifying why they cannot deliver what was promised.
Why not?
We are too intertwined with the EU.
But that's why I voted to leave.
Repeat ad nauseam.
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One can only hope she is as we speak getting malletted on Twitter.DavidL said:
Yes, that's a sentence with both that actually makes sense. It's wrong of course but it makes sense. I don't think her's ever did. No wonder the sub editor cut it.williamglenn said:
Had Remain won a narrow victory, that logic would stand up, but Leave made the mistake of winning, so now they we have something whose success or failure can be judged relatively objectively.kyf_100 said:
Nobody "wins" the culture war. It's just an ever increasing cycle of animosity amplified by social media that leads to unreasonable polarisation and refusal to compromise or see things from the other side's point of view.AlastairMeeks said:A related point: Leave may have won the vote but they have already completely lost the culture war. In coming generations, Brexit will be seen as an act of malevolent and insular stupidity (thanks in large part to the manner in which the referendum was fought). Future fairy tales will cast Nigel Farage as Maleficent.
The country will move on when the Conservative party is abandoned on Vagra II.
Their Pyrrhic victory has merely landed them with the Sisyphean task of justifying why they cannot deliver what was promised.0 -
Interesting Article.
I watched the 1983 Election night programme. Pundits and politicians alike were surprised by the result and had no idea what the election meant. At one point Ted Heath was asked whether he would serve in Thatcher's cabinet.
The point being is that the world has changed and if Brexit happens, there is no going back. There may be no healing to be done. Things will just move on and new problems will take over. Old devisions will never heal, but be replaced with new ones. Some will never get over it.
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The concessions made to EU citizens here on the relevant date which allowed them to bring in spouses and relatives make any meaningful reduction in immigration unlikely. Despite the government's best efforts non EU immigration has been running at approximately 100k a year. That has arisen because a large community from the sub continent was already settled here and choose to take spouses and bring relatives here to join them when they can afford to do so. If the 4m or so EU citizens have enhanced rights (eg no financial criteria) it is reasonable to expect a pretty similar level of immigration from similar causes.FF43 said:
I thought Brexit would make very little difference to the levels of immigration, beyond recessionary effects. I was wrong. You can effectively reduce immigration simply by creating an unwelcoming atmosphere. I wouldn't say it is "control" and the more valuable immigrants with choices will stay away. It isn't a Britain I really want to be a part of. But it does get the numbers down.TOPPING said:The problem is, that all of that does not square with stopping foreigners coming here. Now, you may say that it's best that fewer foreigners come here (largely white ones with a similar and shared belief system as us). But it is a very difficult message to send to the foreigners, assuming you want them, to say come hither and oh by the way we as a country have just voted to have fewer of you.
Innit
I therefore expect post EU immigration to remain at pretty much the 200K a year level unless we have a serious downturn in our economy.0 -
I think you've misunderstood. She was trying (unsuccessfully!) to make an over-clever joke Sisyphus = rock, Pyrrhic = hard-place.TOPPING said:
One can only hope she is as we speak getting malletted on Twitter.DavidL said:
Yes, that's a sentence with both that actually makes sense. It's wrong of course but it makes sense. I don't think her's ever did. No wonder the sub editor cut it.williamglenn said:
Had Remain won a narrow victory, that logic would stand up, but Leave made the mistake of winning, so now they we have something whose success or failure can be judged relatively objectively.kyf_100 said:
Nobody "wins" the culture war. It's just an ever increasing cycle of animosity amplified by social media that leads to unreasonable polarisation and refusal to compromise or see things from the other side's point of view.AlastairMeeks said:A related point: Leave may have won the vote but they have already completely lost the culture war. In coming generations, Brexit will be seen as an act of malevolent and insular stupidity (thanks in large part to the manner in which the referendum was fought). Future fairy tales will cast Nigel Farage as Maleficent.
The country will move on when the Conservative party is abandoned on Vagra II.
Their Pyrrhic victory has merely landed them with the Sisyphean task of justifying why they cannot deliver what was promised.
No, it doesn't really work.0 -
HYUFD
I have lived & worked in Norway. They have some very limited controls of freedom of movement, as Richard Tyndall has explained previously. Largely consisting of a work permit system which is a mere formality for immigrants from the EEA.
If you think that, post-Brexit, EU citizens will no longer be able to come here freely looking for work you are in for a very big disappointment indeed. A work permit system where we meaningfully control the number of permits will not be possible under soft Brexit.0 -
Time for more blockquote lessons?
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HHemmelig said:HYUFD said:HHemmelig said:
Yet we are not getting soft Brexit and not staying in the single market like Norway is. A FTA as a goal may avoid full, hard Brexit but it is not soft Brexit either. Whenever will have more flexibility than Norway on work permitsHYUFD said:
I have lived & worked in Norway. They have some very limited controls of freedom of movement, as Richard Tyndall has explained previously. Largely consisting of a work permit system which is a mere formality for immigrants from the EEA.HHemmelig said:
No. Free movement means any EU citizen can come here to work, travel or study or even look for work for 3 months. Work permits will only be given to those whose skills the UK needs. Norway has to accept free movementHYUFD said:
A work permit system that will be nothing more than a formality, therefore a meaningless sop for the sake of appearances which will have no impact on the immigration stats.HHemmelig said:
It is nowhere near the same number as the roughly 80 to 90% of Leave voters who wanted to end free movement, most of whom voted Tory or UKIP in 2017 too.HYUFD said:
Only a minority of Leavers yes - perhaps 20% - but that is still a lot of voters, the majority of whom will have voted Tory or UKIP in 2017. Given what May agreed last week, there is no way that we are going to be able to establish a meaningful work permit system with regard to EU workers - unless it is merely a formality whereby the EU immigrant asks for a permit and is automatically granted one. That is the system in Norway by the way, and I expect the government may set up something similar.anothernick said:HYUFD said:
Once we leave the single market in 2021 (unlike Norway which is in the single market) a work permits system will be implemented without problems
Ditto we may be officially out of the single market but we will still be totally aligned with it as per May's deal last week.
We are headed for Norway brexit in all but name.
If you think that, post-Brexit, EU citizens will no longer be able to come here freely looking for work you are in for a very big disappointment indeed. A work permit system where we meaningfully control the number of permits will not be possible under soft Brexit.0 -
There's going to be a soft brexit?HHemmelig said:HYUFD
I have lived & worked in Norway. They have some very limited controls of freedom of movement, as Richard Tyndall has explained previously. Largely consisting of a work permit system which is a mere formality for immigrants from the EEA.
If you think that, post-Brexit, EU citizens will no longer be able to come here freely looking for work you are in for a very big disappointment indeed. A work permit system where we meaningfully control the number of permits will not be possible under soft Brexit.0 -
That's not true thoughkyf_100 said:Brexit can't be delivered
Why not?
We are too intertwined with the EU.
But that's why I voted to leave.
The Brexit promised by the Leave campaign can't be delivered
Why not?
Because it was bullshit
Can any form of Brexit be delivered?
Only if you are prepared to accept massive economic loss
Why not?
We are too intertwined with the EU to leave without seriously damaging the economy.
I didn't see that on the side of a bus.
The bus was a lie.
But that's why I voted to leave.
Unlucky...
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