politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Moore remains odds-on favourite in Alabama even though the Dem
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F1: topped up a bit on Bottas' each way for the title at 16 (with boost) with Ladbrokes, fifth the odds for top three. Got roughly equal sums on him and Alonso at varying odds (a little at 20, mostly 12), with a small amount on Vandoorne each way at 81.
Seen another bet that's somewhat tempting but plenty of time to consider it.0 -
OK, this will take your minds off Brexit and Southern Sexpests.
Anybody here got an account with Betway? Got any money in it? Well a friend and I did and we made the normal requests. Took him over a month to get it out. Warned accordingly, I tried to withdraw some too and managed it in about a fortnite.
The 'problem' in his case was that he hadn't sent them identification details (copy of passport etc) although they didn't tell him that until he started chasing them up. In my case they said it had been more than six months since I had used my credit card with them. Again, they didn't tell me this until I contacted them. They then ran a lot of silly security checks and made me wait another 48 hours before paying out.
Don't know about you folks, but when any firm starts stalling me on repayment of my own money, I start to think they may have liquidity problems. Could be wrong, but as a precaution I have cleaned the account out now and won't be betting with them again.0 -
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There will be three G8 countries inside the EU27, as well as many of the world's most prosperous markets. With the US turning in on itself, the EU has every chance of becoming a bigger global player.Casino_Royale said:
My view is there is little the EU can do to restrain the UK's long-term economic success, post Brexit. Hence the desire to handcuff us in via the A50 negotiations. The transition and adjustment is the uncomfortable bit, and that's the negotiating hook.Pulpstar said:
We've not bothered - in my opinion it is a racing certainty that we'll be heading out the EU straight into transitional fudge pie.currystar said:
There really is no point as no one knows. We were supposed to be in a Brexit recession now according to the predictions., Who predicted during the financial crisis in 2010 that by 2017 we would have record employment and record low unemployment in this Country. The forecasts were for 20 years of recession.logical_song said:
Read that back to yourself slowly.David_Evershed said:
The Treasury forecasts of Brexit proved to be worthless qualitively and quantitively. There are too many unknowns for any evaluation to be worth the paper it is written on.MaxPB said:
They could go to any City institution and buy some in. How incompetent is DExEU?!TheScreamingEagles said:Jeez, David Davis says there was no qualitative analysis taken before the decision to leave the customs unions.
Is it seriously not worth trying to predict the effects of the biggest upheaval in 50 years?
Which is why the EU wants a deal. It's worried that once we get through an tungsten-tipped Brexit (bad for several years) we won't come back for seconds for a while and, when we do, it'll be a different game.
If the RoW doesn't give that much of a sh*t about the UK and Brexit (0.7% global population), it doesn't care much more about the EU either (6% population) in a world where 80% of economic growth will come from outside both.
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David Davis could have said all that over the last year. He chose not to.Richard_Nabavi said:The idea that the government would have some magical, detailed insight into the exact impact of an as-yet-unknown trade arrangement on dozens of sectors was obvious baloney from the start, and it certainly wouldn't have any more insight as you an easily get from publicly available documents. So the fuss about the distinction between 'analyses' and 'impact assessments' is just noise. There was never going to be anything interesting in the working papers.
What actually matters is what arrangement we negotiate with the EU. On that side, hopefully some progress is about to be made. The signals look quite encouraging.
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Referring to Christine Keeler in this way the day after her death is pretty tasteless. And what does it mean, and is it funny?Scott_P said:
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The EU's share of the world economy has been shrinking for years. The US is undergoing a fairly reasonable economic boom. I don't see the mechanism for that trend to change, especially since the EU is about to lose 16% of its GDP in less than two years. Whatever you think of Trump, the US economy is definitely picking up.SouthamObserver said:
There will be three G8 countries inside the EU27, as well as many of the world's most prosperous markets. With the US turning in on itself, the EU has every chance of becoming a bigger global player.Casino_Royale said:
My view is there is little the EU can do to restrain the UK's long-term economic success, post Brexit. Hence the desire to handcuff us in via the A50 negotiations. The transition and adjustment is the uncomfortable bit, and that's the negotiating hook.Pulpstar said:
We've not bothered - in my opinion it is a racing certainty that we'll be heading out the EU straight into transitional fudge pie.currystar said:
There really is no point as no one knows. We were supposed to be in a Brexit recession now according to the predictions., Who predicted during the financial crisis in 2010 that by 2017 we would have record employment and record low unemployment in this Country. The forecasts were for 20 years of recession.logical_song said:
Read that back to yourself slowly.David_Evershed said:
The Treasury forecasts of Brexit proved to be worthless qualitively and quantitively. There are too many unknowns for any evaluation to be worth the paper it is written on.MaxPB said:
They could go to any City institution and buy some in. How incompetent is DExEU?!TheScreamingEagles said:Jeez, David Davis says there was no qualitative analysis taken before the decision to leave the customs unions.
Is it seriously not worth trying to predict the effects of the biggest upheaval in 50 years?
Which is why the EU wants a deal. It's worried that once we get through an tungsten-tipped Brexit (bad for several years) we won't come back for seconds for a while and, when we do, it'll be a different game.
If the RoW doesn't give that much of a sh*t about the UK and Brexit (0.7% global population), it doesn't care much more about the EU either (6% population) in a world where 80% of economic growth will come from outside both.0 -
Fixing the known unknowns - which is what this is about - is perfectly possible though.philiph said:
Which by definition is impossibleTOPPING said:
Yep.MaxPB said:
The government should at least have assessments for various scenarios available as a baseline to work from. It's about not having any unknown unknowns.Richard_Nabavi said:The idea that the government would have some magical, detailed insight into the exact impact of an as-yet-unknown trade arrangement on dozens of sectors was obvious baloney from the start, and it certainly wouldn't have any more insight as you an easily get from publicly available documents. So the fuss about the distinction between 'analyses' and 'impact assessments' is just noise. There was never going to be anything interesting in the working papers.
What actually matters is what arrangement we negotiate with the EU. On that side, hopefully some progress is about to be made. The signals look quite encouraging.
(And while it's impossible to not have any unknown unknowns, it's not impossible to reduce the number: you just have to think harder and more imaginatively).0 -
Economics is about trying to quantify the unquantifiable (do you receive greater utility from an apple or an orange). Now you may say it is all baloney and you may well be right, but it allows for an estimate of possible outcomes, for the decision-makers to focus their minds on any particular scenario, and for the voters to see what has lead our glorious leaders to come to the conclusions they have come to.philiph said:
Which by definition is impossibleTOPPING said:
Yep.MaxPB said:
The government should at least have assessments for various scenarios available as a baseline to work from. It's about not having any unknown unknowns.Richard_Nabavi said:The idea that the government would have some magical, detailed insight into the exact impact of an as-yet-unknown trade arrangement on dozens of sectors was obvious baloney from the start, and it certainly wouldn't have any more insight as you an easily get from publicly available documents. So the fuss about the distinction between 'analyses' and 'impact assessments' is just noise. There was never going to be anything interesting in the working papers.
What actually matters is what arrangement we negotiate with the EU. On that side, hopefully some progress is about to be made. The signals look quite encouraging.0 -
For a little while there will be 3 G8 countries in the EU.SouthamObserver said:
There will be three G8 countries inside the EU27, as well as many of the world's most prosperous markets. With the US turning in on itself, the EU has every chance of becoming a bigger global player.Casino_Royale said:
My view is there is little the EU can do to restrain the UK's long-term economic success, post Brexit. Hence the desire to handcuff us in via the A50 negotiations. The transition and adjustment is the uncomfortable bit, and that's the negotiating hook.Pulpstar said:
We've not bothered - in my opinion it is a racing certainty that we'll be heading out the EU straight into transitional fudge pie.currystar said:
There really is no point as no one knows. We were supposed to be in a Brexit recession now according to the predictions., Who predicted during the financial crisis in 2010 that by 2017 we would have record employment and record low unemployment in this Country. The forecasts were for 20 years of recession.logical_song said:
Read that back to yourself slowly.David_Evershed said:
The Treasury forecasts of Brexit proved to be worthless qualitively and quantitively. There are too many unknowns for any evaluation to be worth the paper it is written on.MaxPB said:
They could go to any City institution and buy some in. How incompetent is DExEU?!TheScreamingEagles said:Jeez, David Davis says there was no qualitative analysis taken before the decision to leave the customs unions.
Is it seriously not worth trying to predict the effects of the biggest upheaval in 50 years?
Which is why the EU wants a deal. It's worried that once we get through an tungsten-tipped Brexit (bad for several years) we won't come back for seconds for a while and, when we do, it'll be a different game.
If the RoW doesn't give that much of a sh*t about the UK and Brexit (0.7% global population), it doesn't care much more about the EU either (6% population) in a world where 80% of economic growth will come from outside both.
The EU will, like the USA, become a less significant global player. Attitude, expectations, flexibility, political intransigence, slow reacting etc. The membership of UK would make no difference to this.0 -
Llama.david_herdson said:
Fixing the known unknowns - which is what this is about - is perfectly possible though.philiph said:
Which by definition is impossibleTOPPING said:
Yep.MaxPB said:
The government should at least have assessments for various scenarios available as a baseline to work from. It's about not having any unknown unknowns.Richard_Nabavi said:The idea that the government would have some magical, detailed insight into the exact impact of an as-yet-unknown trade arrangement on dozens of sectors was obvious baloney from the start, and it certainly wouldn't have any more insight as you an easily get from publicly available documents. So the fuss about the distinction between 'analyses' and 'impact assessments' is just noise. There was never going to be anything interesting in the working papers.
What actually matters is what arrangement we negotiate with the EU. On that side, hopefully some progress is about to be made. The signals look quite encouraging.
(And while it's impossible to not have any unknown unknowns, it's not impossible to reduce the number: you just have to think harder and more imaginatively).0 -
This is one of those fog in the Channel comments, isn't it?philiph said:
For a little while there will be 3 G8 countries in the EU.SouthamObserver said:
There will be three G8 countries inside the EU27, as well as many of the world's most prosperous markets. With the US turning in on itself, the EU has every chance of becoming a bigger global player.Casino_Royale said:
My view is there is little the EU can do to restrain the UK's long-term economic success, post Brexit. Hence the desire to handcuff us in via the A50 negotiations. The transition and adjustment is the uncomfortable bit, and that's the negotiating hook.Pulpstar said:
We've not bothered - in my opinion it is a racing certainty that we'll be heading out the EU straight into transitional fudge pie.currystar said:
There really is no point as no one knows. We were supposed to be in a Brexit recession now according to the predictions., Who predicted during the financial crisis in 2010 that by 2017 we would have record employment and record low unemployment in this Country. The forecasts were for 20 years of recession.logical_song said:
Read that back to yourself slowly.David_Evershed said:
The Treasury forecasts of Brexit proved to be worthless qualitively and quantitively. There are too many unknowns for any evaluation to be worth the paper it is written on.MaxPB said:
They could go to any City institution and buy some in. How incompetent is DExEU?!TheScreamingEagles said:Jeez, David Davis says there was no qualitative analysis taken before the decision to leave the customs unions.
Is it seriously not worth trying to predict the effects of the biggest upheaval in 50 years?
Which is why the EU wants a deal. It's worried that once we get through an tungsten-tipped Brexit (bad for several years) we won't come back for seconds for a while and, when we do, it'll be a different game.
If the RoW doesn't give that much of a sh*t about the UK and Brexit (0.7% global population), it doesn't care much more about the EU either (6% population) in a world where 80% of economic growth will come from outside both.
The EU will, like the USA, become a less significant global player. Attitude, expectations, flexibility, political intransigence, slow reacting etc. The membership of UK would make no difference to this.0 -
Many politicians deny things. Some turn out to be true, some don't. In both cases though, damage is done when enough of the public believe the claim to be credible.Dadge said:
Denied.Peter_the_Punter said:
Er, the underage girl.....?Dadge said:
Somewhat surprised so many people thought/think he might lose. What, after all, makes his case significantly different from Trump's?TheScreamingEagles said:On topic.
I tipped backing Roy Moore at 4/7, he's now 1/6
I am tipster of the year (If you ignore the fact his price went to 10/11 for a while)
This is precisely why Damian Green has got so worked up about Bob Quick: a proportion of the public will always believe a policeman over a politician.0 -
An 80% chance of Moore winning seems about right, IMHO.
The thing about Alabama is that it both very conservative, and that support for the parties is very monolithic. The Democrats have overwhelming support among black voters, the Republicans slightly less overwhelming support among white voters. There are conservative States, like Montana or the Dakotas where popular independent-minded Democrats can win support among conservative voters, and there are less conservative States where Moore would fail.
Moore is a very flawed candidate who will likely do far worse than a generic Republican, but still make it over the line.0 -
https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/528ae6f8aabe4854a78e3841207cbd21MaxPB said:The EU's share of the world economy has been shrinking for years. The US is undergoing a fairly reasonable economic boom. I don't see the mechanism for that trend to change, especially since the EU is about to lose 16% of its GDP in less than two years. Whatever you think of Trump, the US economy is definitely picking up.
National PMI data indicated that the euro area remained a prime growth engine for the global economy in November. Output across the eurozone expanded at the quickest pace in over six-and-a-half years, with accelerations seen across each of the currency union’s ‘big-four’ economies (Germany, France, Italy and Spain).
Rates of expansion also improved in China, Russia and Australia, but slowed in the US, Japan, the UK and India. Brazil was the only major nation to signal a contraction in economic activity, as ongoing weakness in services more than offset a strong growth acceleration at manufacturers.0 -
No, it is an alternate assessment of the point the @SO made by feeding different knowns and unknowns into the model.TOPPING said:
This is one of those fog in the Channel comments, isn't it?philiph said:
For a little while there will be 3 G8 countries in the EU.SouthamObserver said:
There will be three G8 countries inside the EU27, as well as many of the world's most prosperous markets. With the US turning in on itself, the EU has every chance of becoming a bigger global player.Casino_Royale said:
My view is there is little the EU can do to restrain the UK's long-term economic success, post Brexit. Hence the desire to handcuff us in via the A50 negotiations. The transition and adjustment is the uncomfortable bit, and that's the negotiating hook.Pulpstar said:
We've not bothered - in my opinion it is a racing certainty that we'll be heading out the EU straight into transitional fudge pie.currystar said:
There really is no point as no one knows. We were supposed to be in a Brexit recession now according to the predictions., Who predicted during the financial crisis in 2010 that by 2017 we would have record employment and record low unemployment in this Country. The forecasts were for 20 years of recession.logical_song said:
Read that back to yourself slowly.David_Evershed said:
The Treasury forecasts of Brexit proved to be worthless qualitively and quantitively. There are too many unknowns for any evaluation to be worth the paper it is written on.MaxPB said:
They could go to any City institution and buy some in. How incompetent is DExEU?!TheScreamingEagles said:Jeez, David Davis says there was no qualitative analysis taken before the decision to leave the customs unions.
Is it seriously not worth trying to predict the effects of the biggest upheaval in 50 years?
Which is why the EU wants a deal. It's worried that once we get through an tungsten-tipped Brexit (bad for several years) we won't come back for seconds for a while and, when we do, it'll be a different game.
If the RoW doesn't give that much of a sh*t about the UK and Brexit (0.7% global population), it doesn't care much more about the EU either (6% population) in a world where 80% of economic growth will come from outside both.
The EU will, like the USA, become a less significant global player. Attitude, expectations, flexibility, political intransigence, slow reacting etc. The membership of UK would make no difference to this.
No fog involved, as the UK is irrelevant in this context.0 -
It is. But the US is also turning in on itself. The EU will continue to be a hugely prosperous market in which to sell goods and services - and US introspection will provide an opportunity for a greater presence geopolitically.MaxPB said:
The EU's share of the world economy has been shrinking for years. The US is undergoing a fairly reasonable economic boom. I don't see the mechanism for that trend to change, especially since the EU is about to lose 16% of its GDP in less than two years. Whatever you think of Trump, the US economy is definitely picking up.SouthamObserver said:
There will be three G8 countries inside the EU27, as well as many of the world's most prosperous markets. With the US turning in on itself, the EU has every chance of becoming a bigger global player.Casino_Royale said:
My view is there is little the EU can do to restrain the UK's long-term economic success, post Brexit. Hence the desire to handcuff us in via the A50 negotiations. The transition and adjustment is the uncomfortable bit, and that's the negotiating hook.Pulpstar said:
We've not bothered - in my opinion it is a racing certainty that we'll be heading out the EU straight into transitional fudge pie.currystar said:
There really is no point as no one knows. We were supposed to be in a Brexit recession now according to the predictions., Who predicted during the financial crisis in 2010 that by 2017 we would have record employment and record low unemployment in this Country. The forecasts were for 20 years of recession.logical_song said:
Read that back to yourself slowly.David_Evershed said:
The Treasury forecasts of Brexit proved to be worthless qualitively and quantitively. There are too many unknowns for any evaluation to be worth the paper it is written on.MaxPB said:
They could go to any City institution and buy some in. How incompetent is DExEU?!TheScreamingEagles said:Jeez, David Davis says there was no qualitative analysis taken before the decision to leave the customs unions.
Is it seriously not worth trying to predict the effects of the biggest upheaval in 50 years?
Which is why the EU wants a deal. It's worried that once we get through an tungsten-tipped Brexit (bad for several years) we won't come back for seconds for a while and, when we do, it'll be a different game.
If the RoW doesn't give that much of a sh*t about the UK and Brexit (0.7% global population), it doesn't care much more about the EU either (6% population) in a world where 80% of economic growth will come from outside both.
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Not with a town clerk like Juncker in charge.SouthamObserver said:
There will be three G8 countries inside the EU27, as well as many of the world's most prosperous markets. With the US turning in on itself, the EU has every chance of becoming a bigger global player.Casino_Royale said:
My view is there is little the EU can do to restrain the UK's long-term economic success, post Brexit. Hence the desire to handcuff us in via the A50 negotiations. The transition and adjustment is the uncomfortable bit, and that's the negotiating hook.Pulpstar said:
We've not bothered - in my opinion it is a racing certainty that we'll be heading out the EU straight into transitional fudge pie.currystar said:
There really is no point as no one knows. We were supposed to be in a Brexit recession now according to the predictions., Who predicted during the financial crisis in 2010 that by 2017 we would have record employment and record low unemployment in this Country. The forecasts were for 20 years of recession.logical_song said:
Read that back to yourself slowly.David_Evershed said:
The Treasury forecasts of Brexit proved to be worthless qualitively and quantitively. There are too many unknowns for any evaluation to be worth the paper it is written on.MaxPB said:
They could go to any City institution and buy some in. How incompetent is DExEU?!TheScreamingEagles said:Jeez, David Davis says there was no qualitative analysis taken before the decision to leave the customs unions.
Is it seriously not worth trying to predict the effects of the biggest upheaval in 50 years?
Which is why the EU wants a deal. It's worried that once we get through an tungsten-tipped Brexit (bad for several years) we won't come back for seconds for a while and, when we do, it'll be a different game.
If the RoW doesn't give that much of a sh*t about the UK and Brexit (0.7% global population), it doesn't care much more about the EU either (6% population) in a world where 80% of economic growth will come from outside both.
To be a big global player, you have to think like a big global player and you have to be prepared to act like a big global player. When I see the EU deploying a carrier group to the Indian Ocean, I'll believe that it's taking on that role.0 -
I'm sure he's said at the dispatch box that there are impact assessment (but the government would rather not reveal them)Pulpstar said:
Has he mislead parliament ?GIN1138 said:Will David Davis have to resign this afternoon for misleading Parliament?
Genuine question - Can someone provide the Hansard quotes verbatim..
I'm certain there are party in the Labour Party going through everything he's ever said, word for word, right now....
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So we've learned in the last 24 hours that May is running Brexit policy single handed, that the government has made no sectoral analysis of the different shades of Brexit, and that Davis seems to have lied to parliament (and to us all).
This government is both incompetent and anti-democratic.0 -
One swallow does not a summer make. The EU is bouncing back after a decade of no growth.williamglenn said:
https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/528ae6f8aabe4854a78e3841207cbd21MaxPB said:The EU's share of the world economy has been shrinking for years. The US is undergoing a fairly reasonable economic boom. I don't see the mechanism for that trend to change, especially since the EU is about to lose 16% of its GDP in less than two years. Whatever you think of Trump, the US economy is definitely picking up.
National PMI data indicated that the euro area remained a prime growth engine for the global economy in November. Output across the eurozone expanded at the quickest pace in over six-and-a-half years, with accelerations seen across each of the currency union’s ‘big-four’ economies (Germany, France, Italy and Spain).
Rates of expansion also improved in China, Russia and Australia, but slowed in the US, Japan, the UK and India. Brazil was the only major nation to signal a contraction in economic activity, as ongoing weakness in services more than offset a strong growth acceleration at manufacturers.0 -
Juncker = Prince Oberyn, May = The Mountain, for those whose Anc. Hist. is rusty.Casino_Royale said:
Barnier/Juncker is Hannibal, having just won a crushing victory at Cannae he fails to move on to Rome thinking his enemy finished.TheScreamingEagles said:
We need a Constantine I.Morris_Dancer said:It's at times like this I wish Aurelian were PM. He'd sort this out.
Edited extra bit: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aurelian
Someone to convert from Leaver to Remain and change the course of human history.
May is Scipio, whilst everyone thinks she's finished, she's about to launch an incursion into the heart of Carthage and defeat him at the Battle of Zuma.0 -
Tezza doesn't sound too confident about it all.0
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Alabama is strongly GOP, having voted Republican at every Presidential election since 1974 but Jones as a relative social conservative gives the Democrats a shot while having prosecuted KKK can appeal to the black vote much as moderate Scott Brown was the ideal Republican for the 2010 Massachusetts Senate race0
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Corbyn manages to completely flunk questions on Brexit.
It's amazing. However bad the cabinet are (and they are shocking), Labour would be worse.0 -
No it most certainly is not. Of the top 5 in this weeks Conservativehome Tory members next Tory leader poll not one was a Remainer.Big_G_NorthWales said:David Davis chance of being PM must have gone completely and it is looking more likely that a remainer will lead the party post TM.
It is clear that the EU is an organisation no one believing in democracy should have anything to do with.
However, the shear force of remain influence in the EU and the UK is overwhelming the exit process.
Breaking news. Progress between TM and Arlene Foster in phone call
The top 5 were 1 JRM 2 Gove 3 Boris 4 Davis 5 Raab.
https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2017/12/next-tory-leader-our-survey-rees-mogg-leads-gove-is-second-and-none-of-the-above-still-beats-the-lot.html
The only way a Remainer gets it is through a coronation or MPs putting 2 Remainers to the party membership.0 -
Here's the first Catalonian opinion poll published since the formal campaign period kicked off earlier this week. The independence parties are still headed for a majority.
http://www.elnacional.cat/ca/politica/enquesta-eleccions-catalunya-21d-1_218265_102.html0 -
Imagine you are a centrist Tory in a marginal.TOPPING said:
"Can we have questions from you every week"Scott_P said:Corbyn manages to completely flunk questions on Brexit.
It's amazing. However bad the cabinet are (and they are shocking), Labour would be worse.
Answer, thankfully for Tezza: Yes.
What do you do at this point? Sit and wait for execution?
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Mr. Z, hmm. If any PBer doesn't know the basics of the Second Punic War by now, then maybe I should refer to it more.
Incidentally, the EU's being as reasonable as Rome was when it insisted the Ebro was the border then made an ally of Saguntum, well inside Carthaginian territory.0 -
@JamieRoss7: The SNP is going to raise a point of order immediately after PMQs suggesting David Davis is in contempt of parliament. buzzfeed.com/alexspence/dav…0
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Indeed, the answer is do and say nothing until after 2019.Gardenwalker said:
Imagine you are a centrist Tory in a marginal.TOPPING said:
"Can we have questions from you every week"Scott_P said:Corbyn manages to completely flunk questions on Brexit.
It's amazing. However bad the cabinet are (and they are shocking), Labour would be worse.
Answer, thankfully for Tezza: Yes.
What do you do at this point? Sit and wait for execution?0 -
Jezza is worse than May. Incredible.0
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Prosecuting the KKK might well be unpopular in Alabama.HYUFD said:Alabama is strongly GOP, having voted Republican at every Presidential election since 1974 but Jones as a relative social conservative gives the Democrats a shot while having prosecuted KKK can appeal to the black vote much as moderate Scott Brown was the ideal Republican for the 2010 Massachusetts Senate race
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Corbyn should be walking this and astonishingly he is not0
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Based on May's answers here, the chance of moving on to phase two in December looks slim.0
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That's pretty much in line with all the other polls that have been published - the separatists on or just over a majority of seats, but getting less than 50% of the vote. It will all come down to turnout. All the polls are showing that it will be high. But the higher it goes, the better it will be for the constitutional parties.calum said:Here's the first Catalonian opinion poll published since the formal campaign period kicked off earlier this week. The independence parties are still headed for a majority.
http://www.elnacional.cat/ca/politica/enquesta-eleccions-catalunya-21d-1_218265_102.html
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Provided he gets 95% of the black vote Jones could narrowly win with just a third of the white vote given almost a third of the voters will be blackSean_F said:
Prosecuting the KKK might well be unpopular in Alabama.HYUFD said:Alabama is strongly GOP, having voted Republican at every Presidential election since 1974 but Jones as a relative social conservative gives the Democrats a shot while having prosecuted KKK can appeal to the black vote much as moderate Scott Brown was the ideal Republican for the 2010 Massachusetts Senate race
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The problem the EU will always have is political leadership. The Commission has little legitimacy so has to do things by stealth. That means it has to rest with the Franco-German axis which requires two governments to both agree with a stance and leaders in both places to have the political strength to push it through. Those stars align about 20% of the time, which isn't recipe for a global leadership role.SouthamObserver said:
There will be three G8 countries inside the EU27, as well as many of the world's most prosperous markets. With the US turning in on itself, the EU has every chance of becoming a bigger global player.Casino_Royale said:
If the RoW doesn't give that much of a sh*t about the UK and Brexit (0.7% global population), it doesn't care much more about the EU either (6% population) in a world where 80% of economic growth will come from outside both.Pulpstar said:
.currystar said:
.logical_song said:
Read that back to yourself slowly.David_Evershed said:
The Treasury forecasts of Brexit proved to be worthless qualitively and quantitively. There are too many unknowns for any evaluation to be worth the paper it is written on.MaxPB said:
They could go to any City institution and buy some in. How incompetent is DExEU?!TheScreamingEagles said:Jeez, David Davis says there was no qualitative analysis taken before the decision to leave the customs unions.
Is it seriously not worth trying to predict the effects of the biggest upheaval in 50 years?
Export markets are important but demand-led growth is a short run game. Long term prosperity depends on what we at home. If we are innovative, efficient and productive, supply will find its own demand. That is how we will have prosperity and that is how we will have the funds to address the coming inequality storm from automation. It's important we don't tie ourselves into EU regulations too much to constrain that, although getting a deal is also important. Regulatory equivalence for GFA matters seems a reasonable compromise, providing that the agricultural standards of CAP don't prevent trade deals elsewhere.0 -
Yep - he may be a racist paedophile, but he is our racist paedophile. Or something like that!Sean_F said:An 80% chance of Moore winning seems about right, IMHO.
The thing about Alabama is that it both very conservative, and that support for the parties is very monolithic. The Democrats have overwhelming support among black voters, the Republicans slightly less overwhelming support among white voters. There are conservative States, like Montana or the Dakotas where popular independent-minded Democrats can win support among conservative voters, and there are less conservative States where Moore would fail.
Moore is a very flawed candidate who will likely do far worse than a generic Republican, but still make it over the line.
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Wow - she just shafted Corbyn on student debt0
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May is extremely lucky, at the moment the main alternatives to her are Corbyn or JRM.Big_G_NorthWales said:Corbyn should be walking this and astonishingly he is not
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Sit and wait for Brexit to be done, let May take the blame for the necessary compromises, and then put in some serious, competent and young leader to take the fight to Corbyn. Raab, Stewart etc.Gardenwalker said:
Imagine you are a centrist Tory in a marginal.TOPPING said:
"Can we have questions from you every week"Scott_P said:Corbyn manages to completely flunk questions on Brexit.
It's amazing. However bad the cabinet are (and they are shocking), Labour would be worse.
Answer, thankfully for Tezza: Yes.
What do you do at this point? Sit and wait for execution?0 -
It has made sectoral assessments just not forecastsGardenwalker said:So we've learned in the last 24 hours that May is running Brexit policy single handed, that the government has made no sectoral analysis of the different shades of Brexit, and that Davis seems to have lied to parliament (and to us all).
This government is both incompetent and anti-democratic.0 -
Moderated0
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You look at the Labour leadership and thank Momentum....Gardenwalker said:
Imagine you are a centrist Tory in a marginal.TOPPING said:
"Can we have questions from you every week"Scott_P said:Corbyn manages to completely flunk questions on Brexit.
It's amazing. However bad the cabinet are (and they are shocking), Labour would be worse.
Answer, thankfully for Tezza: Yes.
What do you do at this point? Sit and wait for execution?0 -
Jones is currently getting about the same support black voters in Alabama gave Obama in 2012 but 33% of the white vote compared to Obama's 12%, so still has a chanceSouthamObserver said:
Yep - he may be a racist paedophile, but he is our racist paedophile. Or something like that!Sean_F said:An 80% chance of Moore winning seems about right, IMHO.
The thing about Alabama is that it both very conservative, and that support for the parties is very monolithic. The Democrats have overwhelming support among black voters, the Republicans slightly less overwhelming support among white voters. There are conservative States, like Montana or the Dakotas where popular independent-minded Democrats can win support among conservative voters, and there are less conservative States where Moore would fail.
Moore is a very flawed candidate who will likely do far worse than a generic Republican, but still make it over the line.0 -
I should imagine that's why they haven't revealed one.MaxPB said:What's stupid is that most analysis I have seen for the Customs Union advises the UK to leave, it's having the rules made for us but having no say in them. Literally the worst of all worlds.
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May has put herself and the country in an impossible place. The only way to get a deal done is for the UK to make significant concessions. But every option involves her dumping on a constituency whose support she needs to continue. I thought she might have a chance of winning a stuff the EU red, while and blue election on the back of a walkout. After the shambles of this week, I am not sure that is the case now. It could just be that the UK is going to be ungovernable for the foreseeable future. The first of the big parties to tack back to the centre will win a huge majority. But there is little sign that either is willing to.williamglenn said:Based on May's answers here, the chance of moving on to phase two in December looks slim.
0 -
It was rejection of centrist Cameroons and Blairites and Cleggites leading Remain which led to Brexit in the first placeSouthamObserver said:
May has put herself and the country in an impossible place. The only way to get a deal done is for the UK to make significant concessions. But every option involves her dumping on a constituency whose support she needs to continue. I thought she might have a chance of winning a stuff the EU red, while and blue election on the back of a walkout. After the shambles of this week, I am not sure that is the case now. It could just be that the UK is going to be ungovernable for the foreseeable future. The first of the big parties to tack back to the centre will win a huge majority. But there is little sign that either is willing to.williamglenn said:Based on May's answers here, the chance of moving on to phase two in December looks slim.
0 -
Mr. HYUFD, jein.
I think a lot of the EU vote was about lack of trust in the political class to keep their promises (cf Brown's Lisbon shenanigans)*. I don't think it was a rejection of centrist or soft-left/right politics outright.
Edited extra bit: *specifically on the EU, I mean.0 -
Because they were centrist only on economics, not on social matters or foreign policy.HYUFD said:
It was rejection of centrist Cameroons and Blairites and Cleggites leading Remain which led to Brexit in the first placeSouthamObserver said:
May has put herself and the country in an impossible place. The only way to get a deal done is for the UK to make significant concessions. But every option involves her dumping on a constituency whose support she needs to continue. I thought she might have a chance of winning a stuff the EU red, while and blue election on the back of a walkout. After the shambles of this week, I am not sure that is the case now. It could just be that the UK is going to be ungovernable for the foreseeable future. The first of the big parties to tack back to the centre will win a huge majority. But there is little sign that either is willing to.williamglenn said:Based on May's answers here, the chance of moving on to phase two in December looks slim.
0 -
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And it is the major parties tacking to their flanks that is now making the UK virtually ungovernable.HYUFD said:
It was rejection of centrist Cameroons and Blairites and Cleggites leading Remain which led to Brexit in the first placeSouthamObserver said:
May has put herself and the country in an impossible place. The only way to get a deal done is for the UK to make significant concessions. But every option involves her dumping on a constituency whose support she needs to continue. I thought she might have a chance of winning a stuff the EU red, while and blue election on the back of a walkout. After the shambles of this week, I am not sure that is the case now. It could just be that the UK is going to be ungovernable for the foreseeable future. The first of the big parties to tack back to the centre will win a huge majority. But there is little sign that either is willing to.williamglenn said:Based on May's answers here, the chance of moving on to phase two in December looks slim.
0 -
Was that even an option for the markets for Time Person of the Year? Glad I avoided that market.0
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Can't remember who I backed but the bet is lost.Scott_P said:twitter.com/todayshow/status/938385883811770368
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@GuardianAnushka: .@Jacob_Rees_Mogg asks PM to apply some paint to her red lines when she returns to Brussels - saying they were looking a bit pink on Monday0
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The Leave victory and Corbyn gaining enough seats to force a hung Parliament made that inevitableSouthamObserver said:
And it is the major parties tacking to their flanks that is now making the UK virtually ungovernable.HYUFD said:
It was rejection of centrist Cameroons and Blairites and Cleggites leading Remain which led to Brexit in the first placeSouthamObserver said:
May has put herself and the country in an impossible place. The only way to get a deal done is for the UK to make significant concessions. But every option involves her dumping on a constituency whose support she needs to continue. I thought she might have a chance of winning a stuff the EU red, while and blue election on the back of a walkout. After the shambles of this week, I am not sure that is the case now. It could just be that the UK is going to be ungovernable for the foreseeable future. The first of the big parties to tack back to the centre will win a huge majority. But there is little sign that either is willing to.williamglenn said:Based on May's answers here, the chance of moving on to phase two in December looks slim.
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So, er, just what the fuck has actually been happening this week? It's now Wednesday and I still don't even understand what the border fudge was *supposed* to be, or why we'd expect it to appease everyone. Let alone the timeline of Monday's bizarre events, or who's to blame for them.0
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@JonnyJimmy
You are no longer permitted to talk about the Damian Green story nor about the police officers involved.
Your comments could get OGH into trouble.0 -
All tied up with rejection of uncontrolled immigration and further austerityMorris_Dancer said:Mr. HYUFD, jein.
I think a lot of the EU vote was about lack of trust in the political class to keep their promises (cf Brown's Lisbon shenanigans)*. I don't think it was a rejection of centrist or soft-left/right politics outright.
Edited extra bit: *specifically on the EU, I mean.0 -
Agreed and even on economics voters were tiring of neoliberalismElliot said:
Because they were centrist only on economics, not on social matters or foreign policy.HYUFD said:
It was rejection of centrist Cameroons and Blairites and Cleggites leading Remain which led to Brexit in the first placeSouthamObserver said:
May has put herself and the country in an impossible place. The only way to get a deal done is for the UK to make significant concessions. But every option involves her dumping on a constituency whose support she needs to continue. I thought she might have a chance of winning a stuff the EU red, while and blue election on the back of a walkout. After the shambles of this week, I am not sure that is the case now. It could just be that the UK is going to be ungovernable for the foreseeable future. The first of the big parties to tack back to the centre will win a huge majority. But there is little sign that either is willing to.williamglenn said:Based on May's answers here, the chance of moving on to phase two in December looks slim.
0 -
F1: just as a further ramble to my Bottas tip, Mercedes has had two drivers in the top 3 every year of the hybrid era, and in the 2017 season Bottas was 100 points exactly ahead of 4th.
That's not guarantee for next year, of course, but for the odds to be 5/1 (4/1 real terms unless he wins the title due to the each way aspect) is too long.-1 -
@bbclaurak: Bernard Jenkin third Brexiteer to push PM on whether she’s giving away too much in negotiations
@SamCoatesTimes: Co-ordinated pressure from Brexiteers in this PMQ demanding that there isn’t partial or sectoral post Brexit alignment with the EU, after hints of such on Monday.0 -
I think the more likely version of that scenarios is MPs put through a really shit leaver then start leaking embarrassing stuff about them.HYUFD said:
No it most certainly is not. Of the top 5 in this weeks Conservativehome Tory members next Tory leader poll not one was a Remainer.Big_G_NorthWales said:David Davis chance of being PM must have gone completely and it is looking more likely that a remainer will lead the party post TM.
It is clear that the EU is an organisation no one believing in democracy should have anything to do with.
However, the shear force of remain influence in the EU and the UK is overwhelming the exit process.
Breaking news. Progress between TM and Arlene Foster in phone call
The top 5 were 1 JRM 2 Gove 3 Boris 4 Davis 5 Raab.
https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2017/12/next-tory-leader-our-survey-rees-mogg-leads-gove-is-second-and-none-of-the-above-still-beats-the-lot.html
The only way a Remainer gets it is through a coronation or MPs putting 2 Remainers to the party membership.
Then, probably, the leaver wins.0 -
https://twitter.com/Evan_Rosenfeld/status/938259408127107072?s=17
Isn't there a commandment about that?0 -
Well I guess he saw it as more of a suggestion....Alistair said:https://twitter.com/Evan_Rosenfeld/status/938259408127107072?s=17
Isn't there a commandment about that?0 -
Understood. I'll just be repeating myself if I do anyway!PBModerator said:@JonnyJimmy
You are no longer permitted to talk about the Damian Green story nor about the police officers involved.
Your comments could get OGH into trouble.0 -
@JamieRoss7: Pete Wishart raises his point of order saying David Davis must "surely be in contempt" of parliament.
@GuardianAnushka: Bercow says he can’t rush to judgement on @PeteWishart calls for DD to face contempt motion. Speaker wants to see what DD said. Uh oh...0 -
Thou shalt not get caught ?Alistair said:https://twitter.com/Evan_Rosenfeld/status/938259408127107072?s=17
Isn't there a commandment about that?0 -
Thou shall not covet thy neighbour’s ass?Alistair said:https://twitter.com/Evan_Rosenfeld/status/938259408127107072?s=17
Isn't there a commandment about that?0 -
There is no way an election could be won on the basis of a walkout - the consequences, not least for Ireland, do not bear thinking about.SouthamObserver said:
May has put herself and the country in an impossible place. The only way to get a deal done is for the UK to make significant concessions. But every option involves her dumping on a constituency whose support she needs to continue. I thought she might have a chance of winning a stuff the EU red, while and blue election on the back of a walkout. After the shambles of this week, I am not sure that is the case now. It could just be that the UK is going to be ungovernable for the foreseeable future. The first of the big parties to tack back to the centre will win a huge majority. But there is little sign that either is willing to.williamglenn said:Based on May's answers here, the chance of moving on to phase two in December looks slim.
However, I am beginning to think that an election could be won on the basis of freezing, or even reversing, Brexit. The events of this week make that more likely, since it is now clear that the UK government is not capable of delivering any form of Brexit apart from a cliff edge.0 -
And who is going to put forward this platform? Corbyn? The Conservatives?anothernick said:
There is no way an election could be won on the basis of a walkout - the consequences, not least for Ireland, do not bear thinking about.SouthamObserver said:
May has put herself and the country in an impossible place. The only way to get a deal done is for the UK to make significant concessions. But every option involves her dumping on a constituency whose support she needs to continue. I thought she might have a chance of winning a stuff the EU red, while and blue election on the back of a walkout. After the shambles of this week, I am not sure that is the case now. It could just be that the UK is going to be ungovernable for the foreseeable future. The first of the big parties to tack back to the centre will win a huge majority. But there is little sign that either is willing to.williamglenn said:Based on May's answers here, the chance of moving on to phase two in December looks slim.
However, I am beginning to think that an election could be won on the basis of freezing, or even reversing, Brexit. The events of this week make that more likely, since it is now clear that the UK government is not capable of delivering any form of Brexit apart from a cliff edge.0 -
David Davis is toast isn't he?0
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No one at the moment. But if we are no further forward in the negotiations by next Autumn people will start to panic and freezing the process could seem a really good idea.Elliot said:
And who is going to put forward this platform? Corbyn? The Conservatives?anothernick said:
There is no way an election could be won on the basis of a walkout - the consequences, not least for Ireland, do not bear thinking about.SouthamObserver said:
May has put herself and the country in an impossible place. The only way to get a deal done is for the UK to make significant concessions. But every option involves her dumping on a constituency whose support she needs to continue. I thought she might have a chance of winning a stuff the EU red, while and blue election on the back of a walkout. After the shambles of this week, I am not sure that is the case now. It could just be that the UK is going to be ungovernable for the foreseeable future. The first of the big parties to tack back to the centre will win a huge majority. But there is little sign that either is willing to.williamglenn said:Based on May's answers here, the chance of moving on to phase two in December looks slim.
However, I am beginning to think that an election could be won on the basis of freezing, or even reversing, Brexit. The events of this week make that more likely, since it is now clear that the UK government is not capable of delivering any form of Brexit apart from a cliff edge.0 -
Hmm. I wonder if he was hoping that Theresa would sack Green, so he could then resign in protest and be off the scene when this impact-assessment thing blew up. DD must be cursing Officer Quick, as it was arguably his intervention that hardened Theresa's resolve to keep Green in place.TheScreamingEagles said:David Davis is toast isn't he?
0 -
Hezza has already said that he'd vote Labour to stop Brexit, suggesting that he sees that as the more likely route.Elliot said:
And who is going to put forward this platform? Corbyn? The Conservatives?anothernick said:
There is no way an election could be won on the basis of a walkout - the consequences, not least for Ireland, do not bear thinking about.SouthamObserver said:
May has put herself and the country in an impossible place. The only way to get a deal done is for the UK to make significant concessions. But every option involves her dumping on a constituency whose support she needs to continue. I thought she might have a chance of winning a stuff the EU red, while and blue election on the back of a walkout. After the shambles of this week, I am not sure that is the case now. It could just be that the UK is going to be ungovernable for the foreseeable future. The first of the big parties to tack back to the centre will win a huge majority. But there is little sign that either is willing to.williamglenn said:Based on May's answers here, the chance of moving on to phase two in December looks slim.
However, I am beginning to think that an election could be won on the basis of freezing, or even reversing, Brexit. The events of this week make that more likely, since it is now clear that the UK government is not capable of delivering any form of Brexit apart from a cliff edge.
It's only 43 years since another Tory said 'vote Labour to get a referendum on continuing EU membership'.0 -
Yes, could even be Leadsom as PM by Christmas if they try that.Stereotomy said:
I think the more likely version of that scenarios is MPs put through a really shit leaver then start leaking embarrassing stuff about them.HYUFD said:
No it most certainly is not. Of the top 5 in this weeks Conservativehome Tory members next Tory leader poll not one was a Remainer.Big_G_NorthWales said:David Davis chance of being PM must have gone completely and it is looking more likely that a remainer will lead the party post TM.
It is clear that the EU is an organisation no one believing in democracy should have anything to do with.
However, the shear force of remain influence in the EU and the UK is overwhelming the exit process.
Breaking news. Progress between TM and Arlene Foster in phone call
The top 5 were 1 JRM 2 Gove 3 Boris 4 Davis 5 Raab.
https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2017/12/next-tory-leader-our-survey-rees-mogg-leads-gove-is-second-and-none-of-the-above-still-beats-the-lot.html
The only way a Remainer gets it is through a coronation or MPs putting 2 Remainers to the party membership.
Then, probably, the leaver wins.
Tory members have had enough of petty games0 -
In summary, May/Davis and their flunkies offered the Irish too much.Stereotomy said:So, er, just what the fuck has actually been happening this week? It's now Wednesday and I still don't even understand what the border fudge was *supposed* to be, or why we'd expect it to appease everyone. Let alone the timeline of Monday's bizarre events, or who's to blame for them.
Thankfully sanity has prevailed.
0 -
In any normal world he should be, but I can't see how the EU negotiations could survive his loss. It feels to me that if he falls, the Government falls. And neither looks unlikely this lunchtime.TheScreamingEagles said:David Davis is toast isn't he?
-1 -
I haven't watched, but I can only imagine how pleased Bercow looked.Scott_P said:
@GuardianAnushka: Bercow says he can’t rush to judgement on @PeteWishart calls for DD to face contempt motion. Speaker wants to see what DD said. Uh oh...
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Yes, #MeToo was the favourite.Morris_Dancer said:Was that even an option for the markets for Time Person of the Year? Glad I avoided that market.
0 -
Not so sure - just means a new Brexit minister - one the DUP have more faith in would strengthen the govt.tpfkar said:
In any normal world he should be, but I can't see how the EU negotiations could survive his loss. It feels to me that if he falls, the Government falls. And neither looks unlikely this lunchtime.TheScreamingEagles said:David Davis is toast isn't he?
0 -
So, I go out for a few hours and now catching up.
Have I got this right? There never were any impact statements. DD made them up?
This has got beyond funny now. This is turning into the novel that Kafka failed to write because it was too weird.0 -
Am I right in thinking that that is what has won just not using that specific phrase? Presumably the bookies won't be paying out?Tissue_Price said:
Yes, #MeToo was the favourite.Morris_Dancer said:Was that even an option for the markets for Time Person of the Year? Glad I avoided that market.
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Such is my despair at DD, that I'm actually happy to let the poison dwarf have his fun if it brings that lying, incompetent shit down a peg or two.Pulpstar said:
I haven't watched, but I can only imagine how pleased Bercow looked.Scott_P said:
@GuardianAnushka: Bercow says he can’t rush to judgement on @PeteWishart calls for DD to face contempt motion. Speaker wants to see what DD said. Uh oh...0 -
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Could be the tree falling in the forest philosophical problem if noone has bet on #metoo.tlg86 said:
Am I right in thinking that that is what has won just not using that specific phrase? Presumably the bookies won't be paying out?Tissue_Price said:
Yes, #MeToo was the favourite.Morris_Dancer said:Was that even an option for the markets for Time Person of the Year? Glad I avoided that market.
0 -
i.e. Brexit can't be delivered.Scott_P said:@bbclaurak: Bernard Jenkin third Brexiteer to push PM on whether she’s giving away too much in negotiations
@SamCoatesTimes: Co-ordinated pressure from Brexiteers in this PMQ demanding that there isn’t partial or sectoral post Brexit alignment with the EU, after hints of such on Monday.0 -
Keeping Tezza in the job may be all a cunning plan...TOPPING said:
"Can we have questions from you every week"Scott_P said:Corbyn manages to completely flunk questions on Brexit.
It's amazing. However bad the cabinet are (and they are shocking), Labour would be worse.
Answer, thankfully for Tezza: Yes.0 -
Can anyone explain why you would make them up?Scott_P said:
It only makes sense that they were done, the results were so dire for UK economy, that they were 'undone'.0 -
Hezza is a bitter, poisonous scumbag and a disgrace to Parliament. His despair when we finally leave will be particularly sweet.rural_voter said:
Hezza has already said that he'd vote Labour to stop Brexit, suggesting that he sees that as the more likely route.Elliot said:
And who is going to put forward this platform? Corbyn? The Conservatives?anothernick said:
There is no way an election could be won on the basis of a walkout - the consequences, not least for Ireland, do not bear thinking about.SouthamObserver said:
May has put herself and the country in an impossible place. The only way to get a deal done is for the UK to make significant concessions. But every option involves her dumping on a constituency whose support she needs to continue. I thought she might have a chance of winning a stuff the EU red, while and blue election on the back of a walkout. After the shambles of this week, I am not sure that is the case now. It could just be that the UK is going to be ungovernable for the foreseeable future. The first of the big parties to tack back to the centre will win a huge majority. But there is little sign that either is willing to.williamglenn said:Based on May's answers here, the chance of moving on to phase two in December looks slim.
However, I am beginning to think that an election could be won on the basis of freezing, or even reversing, Brexit. The events of this week make that more likely, since it is now clear that the UK government is not capable of delivering any form of Brexit apart from a cliff edge.
It's only 43 years since another Tory said 'vote Labour to get a referendum on continuing EU membership'.0 -
No, he said sector analyses had been done just not sector forecastsScott_P said:0 -
He could also be kicked out of the Tory Party if he confirms he ever has voted Labour or LDRichard_Tyndall said:
Hezza is a bitter, poisonous scumbag and a disgrace to Parliament. His despair when we finally leave will be particularly sweet.rural_voter said:
Hezza has already said that he'd vote Labour to stop Brexit, suggesting that he sees that as the more likely route.Elliot said:
And who is going to put forward this platform? Corbyn? The Conservatives?anothernick said:
There is no way an election could be won on the basis of a walkout - the consequences, not least for Ireland, do not bear thinking about.SouthamObserver said:
May has put herself and the country in an impossible place. The only way to get a deal done is for the UK to make significant concessions. But every option involves her dumping on a constituency whose support she needs to continue. I thought she might have a chance of winning a stuff the EU red, while and blue election on the back of a walkout. After the shambles of this week, I am not sure that is the case now. It could just be that the UK is going to be ungovernable for the foreseeable future. The first of the big parties to tack back to the centre will win a huge majority. But there is little sign that either is willing to.williamglenn said:Based on May's answers here, the chance of moving on to phase two in December looks slim.
However, I am beginning to think that an election could be won on the basis of freezing, or even reversing, Brexit. The events of this week make that more likely, since it is now clear that the UK government is not capable of delivering any form of Brexit apart from a cliff edge.
It's only 43 years since another Tory said 'vote Labour to get a referendum on continuing EU membership'.0 -
If it happens (and I don't think it likely at present) it would be the Tories that put Brexit out of our misery.anothernick said:
No one at the moment. But if we are no further forward in the negotiations by next Autumn people will start to panic and freezing the process could seem a really good idea.Elliot said:
And who is going to put forward this platform? Corbyn? The Conservatives?anothernick said:
There is no way an election could be won on the basis of a walkout - the consequences, not least for Ireland, do not bear thinking about.SouthamObserver said:
May has put herself and the country in an impossible place. The only way to get a deal done is for the UK to make significant concessions. But every option involves her dumping on a constituency whose support she needs to continue. I thought she might have a chance of winning a stuff the EU red, while and blue election on the back of a walkout. After the shambles of this week, I am not sure that is the case now. It could just be that the UK is going to be ungovernable for the foreseeable future. The first of the big parties to tack back to the centre will win a huge majority. But there is little sign that either is willing to.williamglenn said:Based on May's answers here, the chance of moving on to phase two in December looks slim.
However, I am beginning to think that an election could be won on the basis of freezing, or even reversing, Brexit. The events of this week make that more likely, since it is now clear that the UK government is not capable of delivering any form of Brexit apart from a cliff edge.0
