politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » In late April the Tory data chief, Jim Messina, told senior To
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Going back on Brexit would be suicide for Corbyn.williamglenn said:
Just as there were many Tories in London who voted Corbyn because of Brexit, there were also many Labour and UKIP supporters who voted Corbyn because he promised he would not go back on Brexit.
In spite of the desertion of Europhile Tories, May still managed to end up as the largest party. If Corbyn decides to renege on Brexit there is only one direction his support is going in and that is down.0 -
Because it was an election like no other in most people's life time. Political parties up until now have made offers that are in the realms of the plausible, because if they embraced their radical populist wings, they'd lose to the other lot who didn't.That's often informed pollsters' weighting and how people read fundamentals like leader ratings. The youth vote would flake off and protest, the middle aged turn up up to vote and do so with their wallet. Those who say they're leaning one way but aren't sure can be given a lower weighting than those who reliably say they're in one camp.logical_song said:
Because everybody believed the polls.AndyJS said:Why did Labour expect to do badly right up to the exit poll on election day? That's the big mystery IMO.
In 2017 both parties were espousing radical populist visions that enthused sections of voters and horrified others. So you have an extra force sending assumptions haywire. In the case of 2017 pollsters and the parties failed to pick up the fact that the young were much more determined to vote, and wanted to use it to block the Tories being in charge of Brexit, and that sociallyy liberal voters went Labour, and that they were greater in number than the people going the other way -poorer voters enthused by social conservatism and nationalism, -who Theresa May but didn't turn up in the numbers they did for Brexit. Pollsters and pundits, except YouGov, spotted those going one way, but not the other, I think an awful lot of people took, and take a dim view of Corbyn, but ultimately came back into the Labour fold because they really didn't want their vote used to endorse a policy that makes them sick to their stomachs.0 -
Labour's Brexit spokesman Sir Keir Starmer said that when the DUP objected to the draft agreement, "fantasy met brutal reality".IanB2 said:
May very probably voted Remain and Corbyn may well have done.HYUFD said:
It is the truth, Corbyn knows if he abandons Leave he loses the third of Labour voters who voted Leave and the 20% of 2015 UKIP voters who voted for him in 2015 and bang goes his chance of becoming PMIanB2 said:
Once the blind alley of Brexit becomes clearer, Labour will be more confident of hanging onto its leave voters. It'll be the Tories tied to the sinking ship.
"The DUP tail is wagging the Tory dog," he said, in a reference to the deal struck between the parties to help the Conservatives survive key votes.
Mr Starmer also called for the government to drop its plan to enshrine the 29 March 2019 Brexit date in UK law.
- BBC
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Art.50 deadline has to be extended which the Article explicitly allows. Then we can think things through
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Multimillionaire Jon Lansman has opposed every Labour government that he has lived through and does all he can to ensure that the Tories retain power. Can't for the life of me think why!rottenborough said:
"how he became a multimillionaire, of course!"SouthamObserver said:
If Momentum controls the NEC - as it soon will - and has a majority of conference delegates - as it already does - what is to prevent the introduction of mandatory annual reselection of MPs and candidates, as well as mandatory re-elections of leaders? I agree with you totally about the lack of ideological depth among Labour members generally; and that is what makes the private company that Lansman controls so dangerous potentially. It is totally unaccountable but has a direct line of communication to a large number of relatively disengaged Labour members who believe in a general kind of way that Jeremy is a good soul and only wants what is best. When Momentum, which wears its support for Jeremy on its sleeve, says vote for this candidate or that proposal, the undoubted implication is that Jeremy wants this too - which he probably does, of course. Obviously, were Lansman to turn control of the database over to an accountable, elected leadership, then it would be very different. But he hasn't. He is its sole owner. He really is very smart, which is probably how he became a multimillionaire, of course!NickPalmer said:
Hope he's ready to pay up big time in tax for all the sweeties his leader has promised.
Or is the money in the Cayman Islands?
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Really ? I don't think so. The Labour vote will increase. 75% of current Labour voters are pro-Remain, higher than Tory voters who support Brexit.Richard_Tyndall said:
Going back on Brexit would be suicide for Corbyn.williamglenn said:
Just as there were many Tories in London who voted Corbyn because of Brexit, there were also many Labour and UKIP supporters who voted Corbyn because he promised he would not go back on Brexit.
In spite of the desertion of Europhile Tories, May still managed to end up as the largest party. If Corbyn decides to renege on Brexit there is only one direction his support is going in and that is down.0 -
No, it all hangs on the timing.Richard_Tyndall said:
Going back on Brexit would be suicide for Corbyn.williamglenn said:
Just as there were many Tories in London who voted Corbyn because of Brexit, there were also many Labour and UKIP supporters who voted Corbyn because he promised he would not go back on Brexit.
In spite of the desertion of Europhile Tories, May still managed to end up as the largest party. If Corbyn decides to renege on Brexit there is only one direction his support is going in and that is down.0 -
"Will the Prime Minister now rethink her reckless red lines and put options such as the Customs Union and Single Market back on the table for negotiations?" the shadow Brexit Secretary asked today in the House of Commons.
Clearly, Labour's tactics are changing.0 -
No wonder BoJo is keeping his head down. When the historty of these times comes to be written he will be seen as someone who did more harm to both UK and England than anyone else in history.David_Evershed said:
Thousands of Spanish workers cross every day. Expect the EU to make things difficult for Gibraltar so the Spanish can suggest the solution is that Gibraltar unites with Spain in the way Ireland wants NI to unite with them.Yorkcity said:
It did but has an extremely hard border.David_Evershed said:
Gibraltar voted to Remain did it not?HYUFD said:Theresa May greets Spanish PM Mariano Rajoy at No 10 and reaffirms the strong friendship between the UK and Spain
https://mobile.twitter.com/Number10gov/status/9380857602758123520 -
On December 12th the voters of Alabama have to make an unenviable choice between a paedophile and a Democrat. The latest poll from Gravis puts the Democrat 3 points ahead. Personally I think the kiddy-fiddler will win, but the 9/2 about the other guy looks too big.
DYOR, as ever.0 -
No meeting between May and Foster today.
Tomorrow's Brussels trip looking unlikely
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https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/dec/05/we-cant-go-on-like-this-mood-of-resignation-in-eu-as-brexit-talks-stutter
One EU ambassador told the Guardian the failure to reach a deal on Northern Ireland was a microcosm of a wider problem. “At root the problem is that [May] seems incapable of making a decision and is afraid of her own shadow,” the source said.
“We cannot go on like this, with no idea what the UK wants. She just has to have the conversation with her own cabinet, and if that upsets someone, or someone resigns, so be it. She has to say what kind of trading relationship she is seeking. We cannot do it for her, and she cannot defer forever.”0 -
I am shocked, SHOCKED, by this...
https://twitter.com/jessicaelgot/status/938088067289829382
https://twitter.com/jessicaelgot/status/9381003000528773120 -
How is mandatory reselection different from Primaries ?SouthamObserver said:
If Momentum controls the NEC - as it soon will - and has a majority of conference delegates - as it already does - what is to prevent the introduction of mandatory annual reselection of MPs and candidates, as well as mandatory re-elections of leaders? I agree with you totally about the lack of ideological depth among Labour members generally; and that is what makes the private company that Lansman controls so dangerous potentially. It is totally unaccountable but has a direct line of communication to a large number of relatively disengaged Labour members who believe in a general kind of way that Jeremy is a good soul and only wants what is best. When Momentum, which wears its support for Jeremy on its sleeve, says vote for this candidate or that proposal, the undoubted implication is that Jeremy wants this too - which he probably does, of course. Obviously, were Lansman to turn control of the database over to an accountable, elected leadership, then it would be very different. But he hasn't. He is its sole owner. He really is very smart, which is probably how he became a multimillionaire, of course!NickPalmer said:
I'm a member of Momentum and get their emails (surprisingly infrequent - much less than the average charity). When there's a by-election they urge us to go and help. When an internal election comes round, they tell us who the Momentum candidates are and urge us to support them (there is no suggestion that this is in some way endorsed by Jeremy). And that's about it.SouthamObserver said:
Again, whoever is leader.
Yes. there's a default assumption among most members that Momentum-supported candidates will be helpful to Jeremy and the team and that that's a Good Thing, partly from political preference but also because many members got fed up with the in-fighting. The centrist insurgents overplayed their hand with the mass resignations and few members want to elect people who might do that again. So the Momentum candidates generally win, but there's not much ideological depth to it. As anothernick implies, it's perfectly possible that the same loyalist instincts would swing behind another leader in the future. The levers of power are frankly not very powerful in Labour, as the Corbyn critics who used to control them discovered when they tried to get rid of him.
There are a few places (Haringay, Watford spring to mind) where things are much more organised and left or right slates take each other on. But at CLP level the generalised loyalty is diffused by personal contacts, local issues, etc. and it all becomes less predictable. Media predictions (whether hopes or fears) of mass deselections remain wildly wide of the mark and more to do with journalists looking for a theme for their next piece.0 -
May is backing Spain stopping self determination for Catalonia so she weakens her case for Gibralter's self determination.HYUFD said:
May is backing Spain on Catalonia to avoid thatRobD said:
Unlikely allies, unless they bring up Gibraltar at the last minute to scupper any deal!HYUFD said:
It also voted even more strongly to stay in the UK in 2002. In any case Rajoy is busy with Catalonia and is grateful for May's support for Spain on thatDavid_Evershed said:
Gibraltar voted to Remain did it not?HYUFD said:Theresa May greets Spanish PM Mariano Rajoy at No 10 and reaffirms the strong friendship between the UK and Spain
https://mobile.twitter.com/Number10gov/status/9380857602758123520 -
Your confidence in Corbyn delivering full on Brexit may be misplaced. His ambivalence towards Brexit would not fill me with the same optimism were I of the Brexit persuasion.HYUFD said:
Of course it is, both Corbyn and May still back BrexitAndyJS said:Brexit isn't going to happen, is it. Doesn't bother me since I voted Remain. But the 52% won't be happy.
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@faisalislam: Juncker has suggested a further Brexit meeting with PM which was expected tomorrow now “maybe tomorrow, maybe the day after tomorrow, not on Friday and Saturday because I’m out of town, maybe on Sunday”.
Tomorrow trip to Brussels looking doubtful.0 -
Not sure about this, although it may be true that it screws Corbyn. May quite explicitly went for Labour's socially conservative working class vote, and Corbyn could be genetically engineered to piss those voters off. They turned, but not in enough numbers to swamp those royally peeved by Brexit .Richard_Tyndall said:
Going back on Brexit would be suicide for Corbyn.williamglenn said:
Just as there were many Tories in London who voted Corbyn because of Brexit, there were also many Labour and UKIP supporters who voted Corbyn because he promised he would not go back on Brexit.
In spite of the desertion of Europhile Tories, May still managed to end up as the largest party. If Corbyn decides to renege on Brexit there is only one direction his support is going in and that is down.
Might be a problem for Corbyn though, as unlike almost any other Labour faction he's not going to make any inroads with tribal remain Tories. It's impossible to imagine even a Wollaston crossing the floor. That might mean the votes he loses by dropping Brexit can't be picked up elsewhere, whereas even Thornberry would have a decent shot.0 -
Varadkar
"Next move in Brexit deadlock is up to London"
no Leo it's up to Belfast you tit
anyway good to see Gerry Adams is warming up too
Leo has invited politics northern style in to his house, it just wont end well for him
https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/politics/next-move-in-brexit-deadlock-is-up-to-london-taoiseach-tells-the-dil-36381255.html0 -
You make my point for me. 75% of Labour supporters are pro-Remain. That leaves 25% who are not. They voted Labour at the last election in part at least because Corbyn promised to go through with Brexit. Those pro Remain Tories who voted May did so in spite of her saying she would go through with Brexit.surbiton said:
Really ? I don't think so. The Labour vote will increase. 75% of current Labour voters are pro-Remain, higher than Tory voters who support Brexit.Richard_Tyndall said:
Going back on Brexit would be suicide for Corbyn.williamglenn said:
Just as there were many Tories in London who voted Corbyn because of Brexit, there were also many Labour and UKIP supporters who voted Corbyn because he promised he would not go back on Brexit.
In spite of the desertion of Europhile Tories, May still managed to end up as the largest party. If Corbyn decides to renege on Brexit there is only one direction his support is going in and that is down.
Which of these groups do you think are more likely to move? I can tell you that for free. It will be those who voted for the person who then changes their mind.
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Isn’t the distinction on the legality of the referendums?David_Evershed said:
May is backing Spain stopping self determination for Catalonia so she weakens her case for Gibralter's self determination.HYUFD said:
May is backing Spain on Catalonia to avoid thatRobD said:
Unlikely allies, unless they bring up Gibraltar at the last minute to scupper any deal!HYUFD said:
It also voted even more strongly to stay in the UK in 2002. In any case Rajoy is busy with Catalonia and is grateful for May's support for Spain on thatDavid_Evershed said:
Gibraltar voted to Remain did it not?HYUFD said:Theresa May greets Spanish PM Mariano Rajoy at No 10 and reaffirms the strong friendship between the UK and Spain
https://mobile.twitter.com/Number10gov/status/9380857602758123520 -
Totally off topic, but I found this map really helpful visually:
https://twitter.com/Patricia_Energy/status/9376787130466508800 -
That they've been told not to by the leadership. The thing about Labour, as you'll know from your time in the party, is that most members aren't that factional, and that applies to most MPs too. There is quite simply no need to try to deselect an MP who is generally supportive when things are not going too badly - which is what 95% of Labour MPs are (the other parties are similar, by the way). And it's a distraction and an active threat to the chance of winning an election.SouthamObserver said:
If Momentum controls the NEC - as it soon will - and has a majority of conference delegates - as it already does - what is to prevent the introduction of mandatory annual reselection of MPs and candidates, as well as mandatory re-elections of leaders?
The reason the hard left (who think Momentum are milk-sops and far too tied to Corbyn as an individual) would like mandatory reselection is that they think, correctly, that if Labour were in power, there would be lots of MPs who would become restive when parts of Labour's programme proved unpopular (as all parties do at some point). They feel the party needs a disciplined phalanx of MPs who will stay loyal no matter what. But neither Corbyn nor - after some flirtation with it - Lansmann agree: the cost of endless local battles is far too high. Corbyn is temperamentally averse to purges and feels he'll worry about revolts when in Government; it's tomorrow's problem, and focusing on winning on a progressive platform comes first.0 -
Mr Brooke, it won’t end well for us, either.Alanbrooke said:
Varadkar
"Next move in Brexit deadlock is up to London"
no Leo it's up to Belfast you tit
anyway good to see Gerry Adams is warming up too
Leo has invited politics northern style in to his house, it just wont end well for him
https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/politics/next-move-in-brexit-deadlock-is-up-to-london-taoiseach-tells-the-dil-36381255.html0 -
The rivalry with Cameron was probably the main factor.OldKingCole said:
No wonder BoJo is keeping his head down. When the historty of these times comes to be written he will be seen as someone who did more harm to both UK and England than anyone else in history.David_Evershed said:
Thousands of Spanish workers cross every day. Expect the EU to make things difficult for Gibraltar so the Spanish can suggest the solution is that Gibraltar unites with Spain in the way Ireland wants NI to unite with them.Yorkcity said:
It did but has an extremely hard border.David_Evershed said:
Gibraltar voted to Remain did it not?HYUFD said:Theresa May greets Spanish PM Mariano Rajoy at No 10 and reaffirms the strong friendship between the UK and Spain
https://mobile.twitter.com/Number10gov/status/9380857602758123520 -
Lets stop messing around and plump for WTO.
If the EU want to export into the UK market they can put some money on the table.0 -
of course it wont, but playing the Irish card in public was Varadkars decision not ours and he has as much to lose as we have economically and much more politicallyOldKingCole said:
Mr Brooke, it won’t end well for us, either.Alanbrooke said:
Varadkar
"Next move in Brexit deadlock is up to London"
no Leo it's up to Belfast you tit
anyway good to see Gerry Adams is warming up too
Leo has invited politics northern style in to his house, it just wont end well for him
https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/politics/next-move-in-brexit-deadlock-is-up-to-london-taoiseach-tells-the-dil-36381255.html0 -
HYUFD needs to cling on to some straws!Mexicanpete said:
Your confidence in Corbyn delivering full on Brexit may be misplaced. His ambivalence towards Brexit would not fill me with the same optimism were I of the Brexit persuasion.HYUFD said:
Of course it is, both Corbyn and May still back BrexitAndyJS said:Brexit isn't going to happen, is it. Doesn't bother me since I voted Remain. But the 52% won't be happy.
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Is there one of proven reserves? Surprising how low down Venezuela is when I thought it had the biggest reserves.AlastairMeeks said:Totally off topic, but I found this map really helpful visually:
https://twitter.com/Patricia_Energy/status/9376787130466508800 -
I hope Sinn Fein have been talking to the right Theresa May.
https://twitter.com/moneillsf/status/9381054137441607690 -
You are James Dyson and I claim my 15% tariffDavid_Evershed said:Lets stop messing around and plump for WTO.
If the EU want to export into the UK market they can put some money on the table.0 -
Mr. Punter, who's the 9/2 with? And cheers for the suggestion.0
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May is crap! I am not sure why she is still PM.williamglenn said:0 -
Betfair - about £70 if you're quick. Can't last.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Punter, who's the 9/2 with? And cheers for the suggestion.
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Not if we paid more to compensate for it. Besides which under that scenario FoM might be extended to workers in financial services.williamglenn said:
That an obstacle might be 'political', doesn't make it ill-founded.Casino_Royale said:Just to add to that, in theory what should be on offer (not that the UK electorate would buy it) is a form of single market lite, without freedom of movement and only in some areas, where the UK also gets a vote on the rules for that aspect of the single market for which it stays within.
The EU often says the EU cannot be "a la carte" but the thing is that a la carte means you get more choice, but you pay more too, as opposed to full membership or "prix fixe".
So I can't see why the EU couldn't offer (in principle) a la carte for even higher budgetary net contributions, for example.
The obstacles are more political, as it'd require a treaty change to how the EU's institutions and procedures work, and we wouldn't ever agree to pay even more money.
For example, if we had single market access on a similar basis as now but had restrictions on free movement, then London could suck in Eurozone financial services, but workers from across the EU would need a work permit to take up employment in the City. That would be an intolerable position.0 -
It does. The problem is that it has decimated its oil industry by nationalising the industry and driving out the expertise. The rest of the world has benefitted from this exodus of experience whilst Venezuela has seen its whole industry collapse.RobD said:
Is there one of proven reserves? Surprising how low down Venezuela is when I thought it had the biggest reserves.AlastairMeeks said:Totally off topic, but I found this map really helpful visually:
https://twitter.com/Patricia_Energy/status/9376787130466508800 -
Do you think that Corbyn has more in common with the Anarcho-Syndaclist ideas of Bakunin than Communism? He seems to have great faith in grass roots party activists, and some distrust of party machines.NickPalmer said:
That they've been told not to by the leadership. The thing about Labour, as you'll know from your time in the party, is that most members aren't that factional, and that applies to most MPs too. There is quite simply no need to try to deselect an MP who is generally supportive when things are not going too badly - which is what 95% of Labour MPs are (the other parties are similar, by the way). And it's a distraction and an active threat to the chance of winning an election.SouthamObserver said:
If Momentum controls the NEC - as it soon will - and has a majority of conference delegates - as it already does - what is to prevent the introduction of mandatory annual reselection of MPs and candidates, as well as mandatory re-elections of leaders?
The reason the hard left (who think Momentum are milk-sops and far too tied to Corbyn as an individual) would like mandatory reselection is that they think, correctly, that if Labour were in power, there would be lots of MPs who would become restive when parts of Labour's programme proved unpopular (as all parties do at some point). They feel the party needs a disciplined phalanx of MPs who will stay loyal no matter what. But neither Corbyn nor - after some flirtation with it - Lansmann agree: the cost of endless local battles is far too high. Corbyn is temperamentally averse to purges and feels he'll worry about revolts when in Government; it's tomorrow's problem, and focusing on winning on a progressive platform comes first.0 -
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no Irish citizens were killed making this tweetwilliamglenn said:I hope Sinn Fein have been talking to the right Theresa May.
https://twitter.com/moneillsf/status/9381054137441607690 -
The problem is, Nick, we really only canvass "our" voters and judge the outcome by how solid the base is. The Tories do even less, I think.NickPalmer said:
The high command believed the opinion polls, just like every other professional including me. The amateur (Momentum and other) enthusiasts said "nonsense, we've got a wave coming and we're in with a shot", and we old-timers who'd heard it all before thought said "poor enthusiasts, they're going to be so disappointed".AndyJS said:Why did Labour expect to do badly right up to the exit poll on election day? That's the big mystery IMO.
That said, even old-timers felt HQ was being hysterical when they deployed us to places like Nottingham North, where Tories are as rare as gazelles.
No party actually canvasses the whole constituency.0 -
Mr. Punter, cheers. Alas, my Betfair account is a bit too anaemic. I should probably rejig my money a bit...0
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Awful misuse of an apostrophe from one of our top journalists.Scott_P said:0 -
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Labour is usually described as having ruled out membership of the Single Market and the Customs Union in its 2017 election manifesto (though it has since supported remaining in both for a two-year transition period). In reality, it did no such thing. The party promised a "strong emphasis" on retaining "the benefits" of the Single Market and the Customs Union, and stated that "freedom of movement will end when we leave the European Union". This was an ambiguous position designed to satisfy Remain and Leave voters and unite the Parliamentary Labour Party - and it worked rather well.
https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2017/12/labour-keeping-all-brexit-options-open-including-no-brexit0 -
Can May remain as PM ?Scott_P said:
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Apart from them whipping against an amendment seeking continued membership of both the Single Market and Customs Union, of course.surbiton said:Labour is usually described as having ruled out membership of the Single Market and the Customs Union in its 2017 election manifesto (though it has since supported remaining in both for a two-year transition period). In reality, it did no such thing. The party promised a "strong emphasis" on retaining "the benefits" of the Single Market and the Customs Union, and stated that "freedom of movement will end when we leave the European Union". This was an ambiguous position designed to satisfy Remain and Leave voters and unite the Parliamentary Labour Party - and it worked rather well.
https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2017/12/labour-keeping-all-brexit-options-open-including-no-brexit0 -
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Ah.....would I be right in thinking that the anaemia has been caused by a nasty attack of Formula1 disease?Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Punter, cheers. Alas, my Betfair account is a bit too anaemic. I should probably rejig my money a bit...
Commisserations.0 -
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@bbclaurak: May has spoken to Sinn Fein's Michelle O'Neil
...but not to the DUP apparently.
WTF are the men in grey suits?0 -
@PolhomeEditor: PM's spokesman this morning: "You can expect the PM to speak to Arlene Foster later today."
Senior No10 source now: "It'll happen whenever it happens."0 -
Wasn't her call with Foster featured prominently in the newspapers/twitter feeds yesterday?Scott_P said:@bbclaurak: May has spoken to Sinn Fein's Michelle O'Neil
...but not to the DUP apparently.
WTF are the men in grey suits?0 -
Still not a good price. I think it should be evens now. I really cannot see it not happening.AndyJS said:Election in 2018 is 9/4 with Betfair Exchange.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics0 -
This story broke today so you may not have seen it:NickPalmer said:
That they've been told not to by the leadership. The thing about Labour, as you'll know from your time in the party, is that most members aren't that factional, and that applies to most MPs too. There is quite simply no need to try to deselect an MP who is generally supportive when things are not going too badly - which is what 95% of Labour MPs are (the other parties are similar, by the way). And it's a distraction and an active threat to the chance of winning an election.SouthamObserver said:
If Momentum controls the NEC - as it soon will - and has a majority of conference delegates - as it already does - what is to prevent the introduction of mandatory annual reselection of MPs and candidates, as well as mandatory re-elections of leaders?
The reason the hard left (who think Momentum are milk-sops and far too tied to Corbyn as an individual) would like mandatory reselection is that they think, correctly, that if Labour were in power, there would be lots of MPs who would become restive when parts of Labour's programme proved unpopular (as all parties do at some point). They feel the party needs a disciplined phalanx of MPs who will stay loyal no matter what. But neither Corbyn nor - after some flirtation with it - Lansmann agree: the cost of endless local battles is far too high. Corbyn is temperamentally averse to purges and feels he'll worry about revolts when in Government; it's tomorrow's problem, and focusing on winning on a progressive platform comes first.
http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/momentum-re-open-all-london-labour-councillor-selections-jon-lansman_uk_5a26833be4b07324e84074c2
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Maybe Foster is not taking her call.Scott_P said:@PolhomeEditor: PM's spokesman this morning: "You can expect the PM to speak to Arlene Foster later today."
Senior No10 source now: "It'll happen whenever it happens."0 -
So no commitment to permanent membership of the single market and a promise to end free movement thensurbiton said:Labour is usually described as having ruled out membership of the Single Market and the Customs Union in its 2017 election manifesto (though it has since supported remaining in both for a two-year transition period). In reality, it did no such thing. The party promised a "strong emphasis" on retaining "the benefits" of the Single Market and the Customs Union, and stated that "freedom of movement will end when we leave the European Union". This was an ambiguous position designed to satisfy Remain and Leave voters and unite the Parliamentary Labour Party - and it worked rather well.
https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2017/12/labour-keeping-all-brexit-options-open-including-no-brexit0 -
It's easy to see how it might not happen. Theresa May gets thrown out of a window onto a dung heap in a Prague Spring, to be replaced by a Prime Minister committed to delivering a no-deal Brexit with continuing DUP support, faute de mieux thanks to those nasty Continentals/Irish.surbiton said:
Still not a good price. I think it should be evens now. I really cannot see it not happening.AndyJS said:Election in 2018 is 9/4 with Betfair Exchange.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics0 -
If we leave the European Union.HYUFD said:
So no commitment to permanent membership of the single market and a promise to end free movement thensurbiton said:Labour is usually described as having ruled out membership of the Single Market and the Customs Union in its 2017 election manifesto (though it has since supported remaining in both for a two-year transition period). In reality, it did no such thing. The party promised a "strong emphasis" on retaining "the benefits" of the Single Market and the Customs Union, and stated that "freedom of movement will end when we leave the European Union". This was an ambiguous position designed to satisfy Remain and Leave voters and unite the Parliamentary Labour Party - and it worked rather well.
https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2017/12/labour-keeping-all-brexit-options-open-including-no-brexit0 -
If Corbyn promises to abandon Brexit and leave free movement in place that would be the biggest gift he could ever give the Tories. Which is why he won'tMexicanpete said:
Your confidence in Corbyn delivering full on Brexit may be misplaced. His ambivalence towards Brexit would not fill me with the same optimism were I of the Brexit persuasion.HYUFD said:
Of course it is, both Corbyn and May still back BrexitAndyJS said:Brexit isn't going to happen, is it. Doesn't bother me since I voted Remain. But the 52% won't be happy.
Of the top 20 Labour target seats currently held by the Tories, 17 voted Leave.
http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/labour0 -
Off topic, Quick refuses to keep digging: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-422419240
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Or, which is much more likely, the EU talks continue with much fudging and Theresa May staggers on. It's not as though anyone else in their right mind (I know, I know) would want to put the poisoned chalice to their own lips.AlastairMeeks said:
It's easy to see how it might not happen. Theresa May gets thrown out of a window onto a dung heap in a Prague Spring, to be replaced by a Prime Minister committed to delivering a no-deal Brexit with continuing DUP support, faute de mieux thanks to those nasty Continentals/Irish.surbiton said:
Still not a good price. I think it should be evens now. I really cannot see it not happening.AndyJS said:Election in 2018 is 9/4 with Betfair Exchange.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics0 -
-
A no-deal Brexit will be opposed by more than 10 Tory MPs.AlastairMeeks said:
It's easy to see how it might not happen. Theresa May gets thrown out of a window onto a dung heap in a Prague Spring, to be replaced by a Prime Minister committed to delivering a no-deal Brexit with continuing DUP support, faute de mieux thanks to those nasty Continentals/Irish.surbiton said:
Still not a good price. I think it should be evens now. I really cannot see it not happening.AndyJS said:Election in 2018 is 9/4 with Betfair Exchange.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics0 -
That is transparently a lawyer-drafted statement designed to shore up his 'public interest' defence.Casino_Royale said:Off topic, Quick refuses to keep digging: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-42241924
0 -
Grasping at straws there.surbiton said:Labour is usually described as having ruled out membership of the Single Market and the Customs Union in its 2017 election manifesto (though it has since supported remaining in both for a two-year transition period). In reality, it did no such thing. The party promised a "strong emphasis" on retaining "the benefits" of the Single Market and the Customs Union, and stated that "freedom of movement will end when we leave the European Union". This was an ambiguous position designed to satisfy Remain and Leave voters and unite the Parliamentary Labour Party - and it worked rather well.
https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2017/12/labour-keeping-all-brexit-options-open-including-no-brexit
From the manifesto
"Labour will work with global trading partners to develop ‘best-in-class’ free trade and investment agreements that remove trade barriers and promote skilled jobs and high standards." - Not possible inside the Customs Union.
"Freedom of movement will end when we leave the European Union. Britain’s immigration system will change" - Not possible inside the Single Market
"Labour will develop and implement fair immigration rules." - Not possible inside the Single Market.
"We will rejoin the Government Procurement Agreement" - Not possible inside the Single Market or the Customs Union0 -
The problem there is that if "insufficient progress" is made in December, businesses will start activating their plans to counteract the possibility that no decent deal will be done. The end of the countdown is much closer than many seem to realise.Richard_Nabavi said:
Or, which is much more likely, the EU talks continue with much fudging and Theresa May staggers on. It's not as though anyone else in their right mind (I know, I know) would want to put the poisoned chalice to their own lips.AlastairMeeks said:
It's easy to see how it might not happen. Theresa May gets thrown out of a window onto a dung heap in a Prague Spring, to be replaced by a Prime Minister committed to delivering a no-deal Brexit with continuing DUP support, faute de mieux thanks to those nasty Continentals/Irish.surbiton said:
Still not a good price. I think it should be evens now. I really cannot see it not happening.AndyJS said:Election in 2018 is 9/4 with Betfair Exchange.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics0 -
Ireland taking back control: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-422373120
-
To be fair you haven't changed your mind on this subjectsurbiton said:
May is crap! I am not sure why she is still PM.williamglenn said:0 -
No she doesn't, Spain also opposed Scottish independence in 2014, Gibraltar is 90%+ pro UK, Catalonia and Scotland have far bigger movements to end the status quoDavid_Evershed said:
May is backing Spain stopping self determination for Catalonia so she weakens her case for Gibralter's self determination.HYUFD said:
May is backing Spain on Catalonia to avoid thatRobD said:
Unlikely allies, unless they bring up Gibraltar at the last minute to scupper any deal!HYUFD said:
It also voted even more strongly to stay in the UK in 2002. In any case Rajoy is busy with Catalonia and is grateful for May's support for Spain on thatDavid_Evershed said:
Gibraltar voted to Remain did it not?HYUFD said:Theresa May greets Spanish PM Mariano Rajoy at No 10 and reaffirms the strong friendship between the UK and Spain
https://mobile.twitter.com/Number10gov/status/9380857602758123520 -
Mr. Punter, pit lane rash...
Actually, it's mostly a result of a strange couple of seasons a few years ago whereby my Betfair bets tended to fail and my Ladbrokes bets tended to win. As a result my Ladbrokes account is significantly larger.
Edited extra bit: I should stress, that's only a relative measure, neither is exactly a whopper.0 -
Which was a commitment from Labour.surbiton said:
If we leave the European Union.HYUFD said:
So no commitment to permanent membership of the single market and a promise to end free movement thensurbiton said:Labour is usually described as having ruled out membership of the Single Market and the Customs Union in its 2017 election manifesto (though it has since supported remaining in both for a two-year transition period). In reality, it did no such thing. The party promised a "strong emphasis" on retaining "the benefits" of the Single Market and the Customs Union, and stated that "freedom of movement will end when we leave the European Union". This was an ambiguous position designed to satisfy Remain and Leave voters and unite the Parliamentary Labour Party - and it worked rather well.
https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2017/12/labour-keeping-all-brexit-options-open-including-no-brexit0 -
If TM did indeed take the DUP for granted and it is now in stalemate it looks as if she will have to stand down before Xmas. And this from one of her loyal supporters
On Brexit we seem to be on the road to an inevitable soft Brexit0 -
Just got 5.7 on Betfair. Given the polling and America's brutal voting intention filter ( which would mute a Dem surge) that looks like value.Peter_the_Punter said:On December 12th the voters of Alabama have to make an unenviable choice between a paedophile and a Democrat. The latest poll from Gravis puts the Democrat 3 points ahead. Personally I think the kiddy-fiddler will win, but the 9/2 about the other guy looks too big.
DYOR, as ever.0 -
That's true, and it's a point I've made many times.AlastairMeeks said:
The problem there is that if "insufficient progress" is made in December, businesses will start activating their plans to counteract the possibility that no decent deal will be done. The end of the countdown is much closer than many seem to realise.Richard_Nabavi said:
Or, which is much more likely, the EU talks continue with much fudging and Theresa May staggers on. It's not as though anyone else in their right mind (I know, I know) would want to put the poisoned chalice to their own lips.AlastairMeeks said:
It's easy to see how it might not happen. Theresa May gets thrown out of a window onto a dung heap in a Prague Spring, to be replaced by a Prime Minister committed to delivering a no-deal Brexit with continuing DUP support, faute de mieux thanks to those nasty Continentals/Irish.surbiton said:
Still not a good price. I think it should be evens now. I really cannot see it not happening.AndyJS said:Election in 2018 is 9/4 with Betfair Exchange.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics
However, the big news of the last few days is that the EU suddenly seem rather keen on agreeing a trade deal. It has been a dramatic change of tone and urgency. So, recalcitrant Irish aside, I think the chances of a reasonably smooth deal have much increased.
Of course, that doesn't mean that the Irish won't kibosh it. Even Enda Kenny is now pointing out in public how dumb they are being:
"It is important that the work being undertaken by the foreign minister Simon Coveney and Taoiseach Leo Varadkar is focussed on having an agreement on what will have to be sensitive language in order to achieve the outcome what we want here."
I expect therefore that there will be much leaning on Mr Varadkar in the next 48 hours.
0 -
If we get 'insufficient progress' in December with economic repercussions, there will be a lot of soul searching over the festive period. The Queen should give a heavily veiled pro-Remain Christmas broadcast as a precursor to a second referendum.AlastairMeeks said:The problem there is that if "insufficient progress" is made in December, businesses will start activating their plans to counteract the possibility that no decent deal will be done. The end of the countdown is much closer than many seem to realise.
0 -
Looks like IDS and the hard Brexiteers are going to force May out unless she does her bidding.
Tragic.0 -
are the Irish recalitrant ?Richard_Nabavi said:
That's true, and it's a point I've made many times.AlastairMeeks said:
The problem there is that if "insufficient progress" is made in December, businesses will start activating their plans to counteract the possibility that no decent deal will be done. The end of the countdown is much closer than many seem to realise.Richard_Nabavi said:
Or, which is much more likely, the EU talks continue with much fudging and Theresa May staggers on. It's not as though anyone else in their right mind (I know, I know) would want to put the poisoned chalice to their own lips.AlastairMeeks said:
It's easy to see how it might not happen. Theresa May gets thrown out of a window onto a dung heap in a Prague Spring, to be replaced by a Prime Minister committed to delivering a no-deal Brexit with continuing DUP support, faute de mieux thanks to those nasty Continentals/Irish.surbiton said:
Still not a good price. I think it should be evens now. I really cannot see it not happening.AndyJS said:Election in 2018 is 9/4 with Betfair Exchange.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics
However, the big news of the last few days is that the EU suddenly seem rather keen on agreeing a trade deal. It has been a dramatic change of tone and urgency. So, recalcitrant Irish aside, I think the chances of a reasonably smooth deal have much increased.
Of course, that doesn't mean that the Irish won't kibosh it. Even Enda Kenny is now pointing out in public how dumb they are being:
"It is important that the work being undertaken by the foreign minister Simon Coveney and Taoiseach Leo Varadkar is focussed on having an agreement on what will have to be sensitive language in order to achieve the outcome what we want here."
I expect therefore that there will be much leaning on Mr Varadkar.
the Taoiseach is an idiot for sure - he has either played the Northern card to stay in office or played it as part of team EU to pressurise the UK.
either way he has crapped in his own nest and doesnt know whats coming next0 -
The reality as it always has been is that money talks.Richard_Nabavi said:
That's true, and it's a point I've made many times.AlastairMeeks said:
The problem there is that if "insufficient progress" is made in December, businesses will start activating their plans to counteract the possibility that no decent deal will be done. The end of the countdown is much closer than many seem to realise.Richard_Nabavi said:
Or, which is much more likely, the EU talks continue with much fudging and Theresa May staggers on. It's not as though anyone else in their right mind (I know, I know) would want to put the poisoned chalice to their own lips.AlastairMeeks said:
It's easy to see how it might not happen. Theresa May gets thrown out of a window onto a dung heap in a Prague Spring, to be replaced by a Prime Minister committed to delivering a no-deal Brexit with continuing DUP support, faute de mieux thanks to those nasty Continentals/Irish.surbiton said:
Still not a good price. I think it should be evens now. I really cannot see it not happening.AndyJS said:Election in 2018 is 9/4 with Betfair Exchange.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics
However, the big news of the last few days is that the EU suddenly seem rather keen on agreeing a trade deal. It has been a dramatic change of tone and urgency. So, recalcitrant Irish aside, I think the chances of a reasonably smooth deal have much increased.
Of course, that doesn't mean that the Irish won't kibosh it. Even Enda Kenny is now pointing out in public how dumb they are being:
"It is important that the work being undertaken by the foreign minister Simon Coveney and Taoiseach Leo Varadkar is focussed on having an agreement on what will have to be sensitive language in order to achieve the outcome what we want here."
I expect therefore that there will be much leaning on Mr Varadkar in the next 48 hours.
The EU had 50 billion reasons not to agree too early to a trade deal, but now they've got the money they want tied up on condition of getting the Irish on side.
The last thing the Germans or others want is to see talks collapse and a sudden 50 billion black hole in the EU's finances due to there not being a deal.0 -
You think she is useless (as do I) so why do you think her being forced out is 'tragic'.TheScreamingEagles said:Looks like IDS and the hard Brexiteers are going to force May out unless she does her bidding.
Tragic.0 -
It is what happens when you're weak as piss. Pulled by the remain faction (Soubry, Clarke), the hard leave faction (IDS, Mogg), the DUP, Ireland and the EU in all directions.TheScreamingEagles said:Looks like IDS and the hard Brexiteers are going to force May out unless she does her bidding.
Tragic.0 -
I have admittedly had a long and tiring day, but how is a price not good when it is 9/4 against and should be evens?surbiton said:
Still not a good price. I think it should be evens now. I really cannot see it not happening.AndyJS said:Election in 2018 is 9/4 with Betfair Exchange.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics0 -
Varadkar played high stakes, and his bluff has been called by the DUP.Richard_Nabavi said:
That's true, and it's a point I've made many times.AlastairMeeks said:
The problem there is that if "insufficient progress" is made in December, businesses will start activating their plans to counteract the possibility that no decent deal will be done. The end of the countdown is much closer than many seem to realise.Richard_Nabavi said:
Or, which is much more likely, the EU talks continue with much fudging and Theresa May staggers on. It's not as though anyone else in their right mind (I know, I know) would want to put the poisoned chalice to their own lips.AlastairMeeks said:
It's easy to see how it might not happen. Theresa May gets thrown out of a window onto a dung heap in a Prague Spring, to be replaced by a Prime Minister committed to delivering a no-deal Brexit with continuing DUP support, faute de mieux thanks to those nasty Continentals/Irish.surbiton said:
Still not a good price. I think it should be evens now. I really cannot see it not happening.AndyJS said:Election in 2018 is 9/4 with Betfair Exchange.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics
However, the big news of the last few days is that the EU suddenly seem rather keen on agreeing a trade deal. It has been a dramatic change of tone and urgency. So, recalcitrant Irish aside, I think the chances of a reasonably smooth deal have much increased.
Of course, that doesn't mean that the Irish won't kibosh it. Even Enda Kenny is now pointing out in public how dumb they are being:
"It is important that the work being undertaken by the foreign minister Simon Coveney and Taoiseach Leo Varadkar is focussed on having an agreement on what will have to be sensitive language in order to achieve the outcome what we want here."
I expect therefore that there will be much leaning on Mr Varadkar in the next 48 hours.
He should know that with Irish politics you're playing with fire.
But the second part of the leaked drafting is possibly an even bigger problem than the first, since it effectively says that in the absence of any deal NI will still *fully* align with the RoI (what about the rest of the UK?) and therefore suggests a border in the Irish Sea might be conceded in a no deal Brexit, or the UK would fully align itself regardless rather than changing its regulatory model.
It's awful drafting, and risks enraging the core Brexiteers and the Unionists.0 -
And of course changing leader won't change that much. She may not be the most accomplished of politicians, but even if she were that wouldn't create any more Conservative MPs or eliminate the divisions on the way forward.Pulpstar said:
It is what happens when you're weak as piss. Pulled by the remain faction (Soubry, Clarke), the hard leave faction (IDS, Mogg), the DUP, Ireland and the EU in all directions.TheScreamingEagles said:Looks like IDS and the hard Brexiteers are going to force May out unless she does her bidding.
Tragic.0 -
In my patch, we do. Both the other parties have wondered, at various times, how we come by a better feel for how things are going - such that during a recent by-election we told them both who was going to win before a single box had been opened.surbiton said:
The problem is, Nick, we really only canvass "our" voters and judge the outcome by how solid the base is. The Tories do even less, I think.NickPalmer said:
The high command believed the opinion polls, just like every other professional including me. The amateur (Momentum and other) enthusiasts said "nonsense, we've got a wave coming and we're in with a shot", and we old-timers who'd heard it all before thought said "poor enthusiasts, they're going to be so disappointed".AndyJS said:Why did Labour expect to do badly right up to the exit poll on election day? That's the big mystery IMO.
That said, even old-timers felt HQ was being hysterical when they deployed us to places like Nottingham North, where Tories are as rare as gazelles.
No party actually canvasses the whole constituency.
Of course, for LibDems this makes sense, because so many of what the others consider to be their base actually vote for us at local elections.
That said, canvassing is becoming an unreliable way to judge the voters' mood, for the reasons I gave downthread.0 -
There's some Leavers I respect, IDS and his mob aren't ones I respect, they'll become unbearable, and veto any bit of pragmatism that is required do get an orderly Brexit.Richard_Tyndall said:
You think she is useless (as do I) so why do you think her being forced out is 'tragic'.TheScreamingEagles said:Looks like IDS and the hard Brexiteers are going to force May out unless she does her bidding.
Tragic.
Some of them get positively tumescent over a Hard Brexit.0 -
If 50 billion isn't that big a number for the UK, what makes you think it's that big a number for the rest of the EU?Philip_Thompson said:
The reality as it always has been is that money talks.Richard_Nabavi said:
That's true, and it's a point I've made many times.AlastairMeeks said:
The problem there is that if "insufficient progress" is made in December, businesses will start activating their plans to counteract the possibility that no decent deal will be done. The end of the countdown is much closer than many seem to realise.Richard_Nabavi said:
Or, which is much more likely, the EU talks continue with much fudging and Theresa May staggers on. It's not as though anyone else in their right mind (I know, I know) would want to put the poisoned chalice to their own lips.AlastairMeeks said:
It's easy to see how it might not happen. Theresa May gets thrown out of a window onto a dung heap in a Prague Spring, to be replaced by a Prime Minister committed to delivering a no-deal Brexit with continuing DUP support, faute de mieux thanks to those nasty Continentals/Irish.surbiton said:
Still not a good price. I think it should be evens now. I really cannot see it not happening.AndyJS said:Election in 2018 is 9/4 with Betfair Exchange.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics
However, the big news of the last few days is that the EU suddenly seem rather keen on agreeing a trade deal. It has been a dramatic change of tone and urgency. So, recalcitrant Irish aside, I think the chances of a reasonably smooth deal have much increased.
Of course, that doesn't mean that the Irish won't kibosh it. Even Enda Kenny is now pointing out in public how dumb they are being:
"It is important that the work being undertaken by the foreign minister Simon Coveney and Taoiseach Leo Varadkar is focussed on having an agreement on what will have to be sensitive language in order to achieve the outcome what we want here."
I expect therefore that there will be much leaning on Mr Varadkar in the next 48 hours.
The EU had 50 billion reasons not to agree too early to a trade deal, but now they've got the money they want tied up on condition of getting the Irish on side.
The last thing the Germans or others want is to see talks collapse and a sudden 50 billion black hole in the EU's finances due to there not being a deal.
0 -
Eh ????????surbiton said:
Still not a good price. I think it should be evens now. I really cannot see it not happening.AndyJS said:Election in 2018 is 9/4 with Betfair Exchange.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics0 -
When the front runner in the ConHome poll is pulling in just 18% support, we can be sure that they don't have a more convincing candidate waiting in the wings.Richard_Nabavi said:
And of course changing leader won't change that much. She may not be the most accomplished of politicians, but even if she were that wouldn't create any more Conservative MPs or eliminate the divisions on the way forward.Pulpstar said:
It is what happens when you're weak as piss. Pulled by the remain faction (Soubry, Clarke), the hard leave faction (IDS, Mogg), the DUP, Ireland and the EU in all directions.TheScreamingEagles said:Looks like IDS and the hard Brexiteers are going to force May out unless she does her bidding.
Tragic.0 -
There was a good piece on this election recently on Nate Silver's site. It suggested nobody knows what's going to happen, because there haven't been many polls and the polling firms have little expertise in Alabama - for the fairly obvious reason that it's normally a GOP shoo-in.Alistair said:
Just got 5.7 on Betfair. Given the polling and America's brutal voting intention filter ( which would mute a Dem surge) that looks like value.Peter_the_Punter said:On December 12th the voters of Alabama have to make an unenviable choice between a paedophile and a Democrat. The latest poll from Gravis puts the Democrat 3 points ahead. Personally I think the kiddy-fiddler will win, but the 9/2 about the other guy looks too big.
DYOR, as ever.
It's probably worth backing the outsider of two on that basis alone.0 -
Why is IDS even in the picture, when the party should have shot him in the street like an old, mad, unloved and smelly dog in 2003? This is what comes of being a bunch of sentimental pussies with a penchant for inclusiveness.TheScreamingEagles said:
There's some Leavers I respect, IDS and his mob aren't ones I respect, they'll become unbearable, and veto any bit of pragmatism that is required do get an orderly Brexit.Richard_Tyndall said:
You think she is useless (as do I) so why do you think her being forced out is 'tragic'.TheScreamingEagles said:Looks like IDS and the hard Brexiteers are going to force May out unless she does her bidding.
Tragic.
Some of them get positively tumescent over a Hard Brexit.0 -
I'm not certain what that drafting is supposed to mean. What I think is intended is to say that, if the issue isn't largely solved by the trade deal (the UK's preferred option), then they'll try to solve it by some NI-specific regulatory fudge. But I agree it's awful drafting - it was probably written by committee and has been pulled around by multiple participants, ending up with gobbledygook.Casino_Royale said:Varadkar played high stakes, and his bluff has been called by the DUP.
He should know that with Irish politics you're playing with fire.
But the second part of the leaked drafting is possibly an even bigger problem than the first, since it effectively says that in the absence of any deal NI will still *fully* align with the RoI (what about the rest of the UK?) and therefore suggests a border in the Irish Sea might be conceded in a no deal Brexit, or the UK would fully align itself regardless rather than changing its regulatory model.
It's awful drafting, and risks enraging the core Brexiteers and the Unionists.0 -
Or that they've got lots of convincing candidates!IanB2 said:
When the front runner in the ConHome poll is pulling in just 18% support, we can be sure that they don't have a more convincing candidate waiting in the wings.Richard_Nabavi said:
And of course changing leader won't change that much. She may not be the most accomplished of politicians, but even if she were that wouldn't create any more Conservative MPs or eliminate the divisions on the way forward.Pulpstar said:
It is what happens when you're weak as piss. Pulled by the remain faction (Soubry, Clarke), the hard leave faction (IDS, Mogg), the DUP, Ireland and the EU in all directions.TheScreamingEagles said:Looks like IDS and the hard Brexiteers are going to force May out unless she does her bidding.
Tragic.0 -
by itself it isnt for either sideAlastairMeeks said:
If 50 billion isn't that big a number for the UK, what makes you think it's that big a number for the rest of the EU?Philip_Thompson said:
The reality as it always has been is that money talks.Richard_Nabavi said:
That's true, and it's a point I've made many times.AlastairMeeks said:
The problem there is that if "insufficient progress" is made in December, businesses will start activating their plans to counteract the possibility that no decent deal will be done. The end of the countdown is much closer than many seem to realise.Richard_Nabavi said:
Or, which is much more likely, the EU talks continue with much fudging and Theresa May staggers on. It's not as though anyone else in their right mind (I know, I know) would want to put the poisoned chalice to their own lips.AlastairMeeks said:
It's easy to see how it might not happen. Theresa May gets thrown out of a window onto a dung heap in a Prague Spring, to be replaced by a Prime Minister committed to delivering a no-deal Brexit with continuing DUP support, faute de mieux thanks to those nasty Continentals/Irish.surbiton said:
Still not a good price. I think it should be evens now. I really cannot see it not happening.AndyJS said:Election in 2018 is 9/4 with Betfair Exchange.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics
However, the big news of the last few days is that the EU suddenly seem rather keen on agreeing a trade deal. It has been a dramatic change of tone and urgency. So, recalcitrant Irish aside, I think the chances of a reasonably smooth deal have much increased.
Of course, that doesn't mean that the Irish won't kibosh it. Even Enda Kenny is now pointing out in public how dumb they are being:
"It is important that the work being undertaken by the foreign minister Simon Coveney and Taoiseach Leo Varadkar is focussed on having an agreement on what will have to be sensitive language in order to achieve the outcome what we want here."
I expect therefore that there will be much leaning on Mr Varadkar in the next 48 hours.
The EU had 50 billion reasons not to agree too early to a trade deal, but now they've got the money they want tied up on condition of getting the Irish on side.
The last thing the Germans or others want is to see talks collapse and a sudden 50 billion black hole in the EU's finances due to there not being a deal.
in a negotiation it just may be the starter for 10, so the point has to be defended in the arm wrestling0 -
If they do they may have enough votes to put Mogg in the final 2 to the members to succeed May which means PM Rees Mogg and ultra hard BrexitTheScreamingEagles said:Looks like IDS and the hard Brexiteers are going to force May out unless she does her bidding.
Tragic.0 -
Dave's fault, he should made IDS Ambassador to Afghanistan in 2010 not Work & Pensions Secretary.Ishmael_Z said:
Why is IDS even in the picture, when the party should have shot him in the street like an old, mad, unloved and smelly dog in 2003? This is what comes of being a bunch of sentimental pussies with a penchant for inclusiveness.TheScreamingEagles said:
There's some Leavers I respect, IDS and his mob aren't ones I respect, they'll become unbearable, and veto any bit of pragmatism that is required do get an orderly Brexit.Richard_Tyndall said:
You think she is useless (as do I) so why do you think her being forced out is 'tragic'.TheScreamingEagles said:Looks like IDS and the hard Brexiteers are going to force May out unless she does her bidding.
Tragic.
Some of them get positively tumescent over a Hard Brexit.0 -
End of Days?Scott_P said:0 -
Yep, I'm in.Peter_the_Punter said:
There was a good piece on this election recently on Nate Silver's site. It suggested nobody knows what's going to happen, because there haven't been many polls and the polling firms have little expertise in Alabama - for the fairly obvious reason that it's normally a GOP shoo-in.Alistair said:
Just got 5.7 on Betfair. Given the polling and America's brutal voting intention filter ( which would mute a Dem surge) that looks like value.Peter_the_Punter said:On December 12th the voters of Alabama have to make an unenviable choice between a paedophile and a Democrat. The latest poll from Gravis puts the Democrat 3 points ahead. Personally I think the kiddy-fiddler will win, but the 9/2 about the other guy looks too big.
DYOR, as ever.
It's probably worth backing the outsider of two on that basis alone.0 -
We've got lots of convincing candidates, it is just a pity they aren't MPs are the moment.Richard_Nabavi said:
Or that they've got lots of convincing candidates!IanB2 said:
When the front runner in the ConHome poll is pulling in just 18% support, we can be sure that they don't have a more convincing candidate waiting in the wings.Richard_Nabavi said:
And of course changing leader won't change that much. She may not be the most accomplished of politicians, but even if she were that wouldn't create any more Conservative MPs or eliminate the divisions on the way forward.Pulpstar said:
It is what happens when you're weak as piss. Pulled by the remain faction (Soubry, Clarke), the hard leave faction (IDS, Mogg), the DUP, Ireland and the EU in all directions.TheScreamingEagles said:Looks like IDS and the hard Brexiteers are going to force May out unless she does her bidding.
Tragic.0 -
Ever since Corbyn took over, Labour have been very careful to commit themselves to nothing, at the same time as trying to suggest the compete opposite - on every issue. All commentators can pontificate extensively on the subject of the policies of the next Labour government, knowing full well that there will be evidence somewhere to support his assertions. It is all a bit of a waste of time, as is Labour.Richard_Tyndall said:
Grasping at straws there.surbiton said:Labour is usually described as having ruled out membership of the Single Market and the Customs Union in its 2017 election manifesto (though it has since supported remaining in both for a two-year transition period). In reality, it did no such thing. The party promised a "strong emphasis" on retaining "the benefits" of the Single Market and the Customs Union, and stated that "freedom of movement will end when we leave the European Union". This was an ambiguous position designed to satisfy Remain and Leave voters and unite the Parliamentary Labour Party - and it worked rather well.
https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2017/12/labour-keeping-all-brexit-options-open-including-no-brexit
From the manifesto
"Labour will work with global trading partners to develop ‘best-in-class’ free trade and investment agreements that remove trade barriers and promote skilled jobs and high standards." - Not possible inside the Customs Union.
"Freedom of movement will end when we leave the European Union. Britain’s immigration system will change" - Not possible inside the Single Market
"Labour will develop and implement fair immigration rules." - Not possible inside the Single Market.
"We will rejoin the Government Procurement Agreement" - Not possible inside the Single Market or the Customs Union0
