politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Tonight’s Marf cartoon on the new Defence Secretary who keeps

Jonathan said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Jonathan said:

SouthamObserver said:

This is now, without doubt, the worst government of my lifetime. The disgraceful antics of Johnson and Patel, and the PM’s inability to remove either of them confirm that. And yet, the Tories have every chance of winning the next election. Oh, Jeremy Corbyn ...

Going to get worse before it gets better.

Worse? How could it possibly be worse? Jehovah! Jehovah!

Brexit is a little like a stoning.

Not for those of us who support it.

Sean_F said:

Jonathan said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Jonathan said:

SouthamObserver said:

This is now, without doubt, the worst government of my lifetime. The disgraceful antics of Johnson and Patel, and the PM’s inability to remove either of them confirm that. And yet, the Tories have every chance of winning the next election. Oh, Jeremy Corbyn ...

Going to get worse before it gets better.

Worse? How could it possibly be worse? Jehovah! Jehovah!

Brexit is a little like a stoning.

Not for those of us who support it.

You're hurling the rocks.

The_Apocalypse said:

HYUFD said:

The_Apocalypse said:

HYUFD said:

The_Apocalypse said:

HYUFD said:

The_Apocalypse said:

@AndyJS here are some key reasons: inter generational unfairness, socially liberal, perception Tories dislike young people.

The Tories have not won young people for decades, even Cameron lost under 35s in 2015.

It is middle aged 40 to 50 year olds they need to win back.

The Conservatives won 45+ age groups. They went further backwards with the under 40s at this GE, they need to win members of that group back and recover some lost ground. In 2015 for example Labour only had a 3% lead among those aged 25-34.

Labour had a 3% lead amongst 25-34s in 2015 and a 29% lead in 2017 and a 16% lead amongst 18-24s in 2015 compared to a 35% lead in 2017.

The Tories had a 36% lead with over 65s in 2017 though compared to a 24% lead in 2015 and a 17% lead with 55 to 64s in 2017 compared to a 6% lead in 2015.

So Labour still beat the Tories with young people in 2015 and 2017 and the Tories beat Labour with old people in both 2015 and 2017 it was just the margins expanded significantly for both.

I agree some measures need to be taken on affordable housing to win back young people but it is 35 to 44s who are key. In 2015 the Tories tied with 35 to 44s but in 2017 they lost them by 16% (they won 45 to 54s by 3% in both 2015 and 2017).
https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/how-britain-voted-2015
https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/how-britain-voted-2017-election

Those who are 35-40 are referred to now as ‘young people’ (in electoral terms) as I said in my earlier post.

Re the Tories increasing their lead with older voters. That’s all well and good, but under FPTP that made little difference - the Tories ended up losing seats. By contrast Labour’s increased lead with younger voters led to them gaining seats. So the Tories are going to have to close the gap with more than just those 35-44.

Except they are not 35-40 but 35-44 which when combined with the other key 45 to 54 group represents the middle aged voting bracket.

The Tories were just 8 seats from a majority, so 35 to 44s could eliminate that.

That’s how MORI defines it, but my point is that part of that age group are now seen as ‘younger voters.’ If you want to believe that appealing only to 35-44s out of the younger age group will deliver a majority, you can. Just like Tories believed that winning the WWC vote and the Baby Boomers would lead to a significant majority....

Obviously you need some under 30s to win but the Tories will never win a majority of those whereas they can at least tie 35 to 44s as they did in 2015.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/927668328054820865

I'm spending longer each day wondering why I'm still in the Tory party.

It's not compulsory

TheScreamingEagles said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/927668328054820865

I'm spending longer each day wondering why I'm still in the Tory party.

So are we. Given you voted LD in June and live in a LD v Labour marginal I expect they would welcome you aboard with open arms!

HYUFD said:

The_Apocalypse said:

HYUFD said:

The_Apocalypse said:

HYUFD said:

The_Apocalypse said:

HYUFD said:

The_Apocalypse said:

@AndyJS here are some key reasons: inter generational unfairness, socially liberal, perception Tories dislike young people.

The Tories have not won young people for decades, even Cameron lost under 35s in 2015.

It is middle aged 40 to 50 year olds they need to win back.

Labour had a 3% lead amongst 25-34s in 2015 and a 29% lead in 2017 and a 16% lead amongst 18-24s in 2015 compared to a 35% lead in 2017.

The Tories had a 36% lead with over 65s in 2017 though compared to a 24% lead in 2015 and a 17% lead with 55 to 64s in 2017 compared to a 6% lead in 2015.

So Labour still beat the Tories with young people in 2015 and 2017 and the Tories beat Labour with old people in both 2015 and 2017 it was just the margins expanded significantly for both.

I agree some measures need to be taken on affordable housing to win back young people but it is 35 to 44s who are key. In 2015 the Tories tied with 35 to 44s but in 2017 they lost them by 16% (they won 45 to 54s by 3% in both 2015 and 2017).
https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/how-britain-voted-2015
https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/how-britain-voted-2017-election

Those who are 35-40 are referred to now as ‘young people’ (in electoral terms) as I said in my earlier post.

Re the Tories increasing their lead with older voters. That’s all well and good, but under FPTP that made little difference - the Tories ended up losing seats. By contrast Labour’s increased lead with younger voters led to them gaining seats. So the Tories are going to have to close the gap with more than just those 35-44.

Except they are not 35-40 but 35-44 which when combined with the other key 45 to 54 group represents the middle aged voting bracket.

The Tories were just 8 seats from a majority, so 35 to 44s could eliminate that.

That’s how MORI defines it, but my point is that part of that age group are now seen as ‘younger voters.’ If you want to believe that appealing only to 35-44s out of the younger age group will deliver a majority, you can. Just like Tories believed that winning the WWC vote and the Baby Boomers would lead to a significant majority....

Obviously you need some under 30s to win but the Tories will never win a majority of those whereas they can at least tie 35 to 44s as they did in 2015.

Well I did say ‘close the gap’ ‘reduce the gap’ as opposed to ‘win a majority of’.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/927668328054820865

I'm spending longer each day wondering why I'm still in the Tory party.

It's not compulsory

It is, I've been a member of the Tory party for my entire adult life.

I've lost count of how long that is

TheScreamingEagles said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/927668328054820865

I'm spending longer each day wondering why I'm still in the Tory party.

I'm irritated by the party's incompetence and political correctness, but see them as better than the alternative.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/927668328054820865

I'm spending longer each day wondering why I'm still in the Tory party.

It's not compulsory

It is, I've been a member of the Tory party for my entire adult life.

Ripe for a change then. If you have to spend so much time wondering why you're still in it, that kind of sends its own message doesn't it? You can still vote for them or help out at elections in some way if you decide they're the best option, but shouldn't membership of the party be for the truly committed? If you no longer feel that commitment, what harm?

Sean_F said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/927668328054820865

I'm spending longer each day wondering why I'm still in the Tory party.

I'm irritated by the party's incompetence and political correctness, but see them as better than the alternative.

For since whenever, I (and many other Tories) have been banging on that Labour will be/is bad for the economy, and yet the Tory party are about to instigate the greatest act of economic terrorism I can recall via hard/WTO Brexit.

It is shaking my core values.

Soon I expect cats to chase dogs on this Bizarro world I'm on.

Tim_B said:

Life imitating art?:

IMDB summarizes the movie MAY as -

A lonely young woman traumatized by a difficult childhood and her increasingly desperate attempts to connect with the people around her is sent into a murderous tailspin.

Sounds terrible

ref army size. I believe there hasn't been a british military death due to enemy action since 2013. I dont sense any appetite for more blairite adventures. So what is army for? I'm not sure old fashioned idea of show of military might works these days.

blairf said:

ref army size. I believe there hasn't been a british military death due to enemy action since 2013. I dont sense any appetite for more blairite adventures. So what is army for? I'm not sure old fashioned idea of show of military might works these days.

I feel like we should have enough on hand to credibly and flexibly engage in action, just in case. We're not a superpower, but we are a power enough for that, or should be. It's good for any nation to have the option at least.

foxinsoxuk said:

SouthamObserver said:

This is now, without doubt, the worst government of my lifetime. The disgraceful antics of Johnson and Patel, and the PM’s inability to remove either of them confirm that. And yet, the Tories have every chance of winning the next election. Oh, Jeremy Corbyn ...

I think that a fair cop, this is a rankly incompetent administration.

When May falls, and it seems only a matter of time, who will be thought competent? Surely not DD, BoJo or Amber. All are too associated.

Perhaps Hammond is worth another look. Remainer of course, but turned Soft Brexiteer, which is the only real alternative to WTO Brexit, and where we may wind up. He has avoided being implicated in the current scandals, and is in one of the great offices of state. He is currently out of favour, but that changes when the leader falls. I reckon the 30 at BFX is becoming value.

He would not get past the membership and polls worse than DD, Bojo and Amber v Corbyn.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sean_F said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/927668328054820865

I'm spending longer each day wondering why I'm still in the Tory party.

I'm irritated by the party's incompetence and political correctness, but see them as better than the alternative.

For since whenever, I (and many other Tories) have been banging on that Labour will be/is bad for the economy, and yet the Tory party are about to instigate the greatest act of economic terrorism I can recall via hard/WTO Brexit.

It is shaking my core values.

Soon I expect cats to chase dogs on this Bizarro world I'm on.

Yet, a very large majority of Conservatives wish to leave the EU. As I said, Essex, Kent, the Midlands can no longer be reconciled with Inner London.

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/927668328054820865

I'm spending longer each day wondering why I'm still in the Tory party.

So are we. Given you voted LD in June and live in a LD v Labour marginal I expect they would welcome you aboard with open arms!

You really don't know what you're talking about.

I'm either a member of the Tory party or I'm not a member of any other party.

The Lib Dems aren't for me.

Well you have already voted for them and therefore lost your non Tory virginity to Nick Clegg, so I am sure he and Vince could persuade you to be a member too (in a dry Orange Book way)

I find Sir Vince Cable ghastly, he was the worst cabinet minister during the coalition.

I find Mark Reckless more appealing.

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/927668328054820865

I'm spending longer each day wondering why I'm still in the Tory party.

So are we. Given you voted LD in June and live in a LD v Labour marginal I expect they would welcome you aboard with open arms!

You really don't know what you're talking about.

I'm either a member of the Tory party or I'm not a member of any other party.

The Lib Dems aren't for me.

Well you have already voted for them in Hallam and therefore lost your non Tory virginity to Nick Clegg and Tim Farron, so I am sure they and Vince could persuade you to be a member too (in a dry Orange Book way)

TSE doesnt want to get out of politics altogther.

Jonathan said:

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/927668328054820865

I'm spending longer each day wondering why I'm still in the Tory party.

So are we. Given you voted LD in June and live in a LD v Labour marginal I expect they would welcome you aboard with open arms!

You really don't know what you're talking about.

I'm either a member of the Tory party or I'm not a member of any other party.

The Lib Dems aren't for me.

Well you have already voted for them in Hallam and therefore lost your non Tory virginity to Nick Clegg and Tim Farron, so I am sure they and Vince could persuade you to be a member too (in a dry Orange Book way)

TSE doesnt want to get out of politics altogther.

I never suggested he did.

HYUFD said:

foxinsoxuk said:

SouthamObserver said:

This is now, without doubt, the worst government of my lifetime. The disgraceful antics of Johnson and Patel, and the PM’s inability to remove either of them confirm that. And yet, the Tories have every chance of winning the next election. Oh, Jeremy Corbyn ...

I think that a fair cop, this is a rankly incompetent administration.

When May falls, and it seems only a matter of time, who will be thought competent? Surely not DD, BoJo or Amber. All are too associated.

Perhaps Hammond is worth another look. Remainer of course, but turned Soft Brexiteer, which is the only real alternative to WTO Brexit, and where we may wind up. He has avoided being implicated in the current scandals, and is in one of the great offices of state. He is currently out of favour, but that changes when the leader falls. I reckon the 30 at BFX is becoming value.

He would not get past the membership and polls worse than DD, Bojo and Amber v Corbyn.

At present. But when May falls, the world will appear different. A safe pair of hands in a very stormy sea.

Hunt is worth watching too.

TheScreamingEagles said:

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/927668328054820865

I'm spending longer each day wondering why I'm still in the Tory party.

So are we. Given you voted LD in June and live in a LD v Labour marginal I expect they would welcome you aboard with open arms!

You really don't know what you're talking about.

I'm either a member of the Tory party or I'm not a member of any other party.

The Lib Dems aren't for me.

Well you have already voted for them and therefore lost your non Tory virginity to Nick Clegg, so I am sure he and Vince could persuade you to be a member too (in a dry Orange Book way)

I find Sir Vince Cable ghastly, he was the worst cabinet minister during the coalition.

I find Mark Reckless more appealing.

Yes but you agree with Cable on Brexit but not Reckless so either you accept we are leaving the single market and the EU and be a good little Toryboy and back Brexit or you join the LDs where you can still keep complaining about 'hard Brexit' and praising the EU to your hearts content!

TheScreamingEagles said:

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sean_F said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/927668328054820865

I'm spending longer each day wondering why I'm still in the Tory party.

I'm irritated by the party's incompetence and political correctness, but see them as better than the alternative.

For since whenever, I (and many other Tories) have been banging on that Labour will be/is bad for the economy, and yet the Tory party are about to instigate the greatest act of economic terrorism I can recall via hard/WTO Brexit.

It is shaking my core values.

Soon I expect cats to chase dogs on this Bizarro world I'm on.

FTA Brexit now.

Nearly as brilliant as your forecast that Boris Johnson would almost certainly be our next PM.

You've gone quiet on that front.

Still not impossible, though I now think it will be Davis.

foxinsoxuk said:

HYUFD said:

foxinsoxuk said:

SouthamObserver said:

This is now, without doubt, the worst government of my lifetime. The disgraceful antics of Johnson and Patel, and the PM’s inability to remove either of them confirm that. And yet, the Tories have every chance of winning the next election. Oh, Jeremy Corbyn ...

I think that a fair cop, this is a rankly incompetent administration.

When May falls, and it seems only a matter of time, who will be thought competent? Surely not DD, BoJo or Amber. All are too associated.

Perhaps Hammond is worth another look. Remainer of course, but turned Soft Brexiteer, which is the only real alternative to WTO Brexit, and where we may wind up. He has avoided being implicated in the current scandals, and is in one of the great offices of state. He is currently out of favour, but that changes when the leader falls. I reckon the 30 at BFX is becoming value.

He would not get past the membership and polls worse than DD, Bojo and Amber v Corbyn.

At present. But when May falls, the world will appear different. A safe pair of hands in a very stormy sea.

Hunt is worth watching too.

The Tory membership are not going to pick a Remainer when May goes especially as we will still likely be in a transition period they will want to ensure ends.

TheScreamingEagles said:

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/927668328054820865

I'm spending longer each day wondering why I'm still in the Tory party.

So are we. Given you voted LD in June and live in a LD v Labour marginal I expect they would welcome you aboard with open arms!

You really don't know what you're talking about.

I'm either a member of the Tory party or I'm not a member of any other party.

The Lib Dems aren't for me.

Well you have already voted for them and therefore lost your non Tory virginity to Nick Clegg, so I am sure he and Vince could persuade you to be a member too (in a dry Orange Book way)

I find Sir Vince Cable ghastly, he was the worst cabinet minister during the coalition.

I find Mark Reckless more appealing.

Yes but you agree with Cable on Brexit but not Reckless so either you accept we are leaving the single market and the EU and be a good little Toryboy and back Brexit or you join the LDs where you can still keep complaining about 'hard Brexit' and praising the EU to your hearts content!

You should take your head out of your arse.

Cable wants another referendum, I don't.

You still want the single market though which Cable has now effectively prioritised.

Senator Rand Paul is recovering from 5 broken ribs, in an alleged assault by his neighbor. His attorney says it was foliage related.

Maybe he'll take the opportunity to turn over a new leaf

foxinsoxuk said:

HYUFD said:

foxinsoxuk said:

HYUFD said:

foxinsoxuk said:

SouthamObserver said:

This is now, without doubt, the worst government of my lifetime. The disgraceful antics of Johnson and Patel, and the PM’s inability to remove either of them confirm that. And yet, the Tories have every chance of winning the next election. Oh, Jeremy Corbyn ...

I think that a fair cop, this is a rankly incompetent administration.

When May falls, and it seems only a matter of time, who will be thought competent? Surely not DD, BoJo or Amber. All are too associated.

Perhaps Hammond is worth another look. Remainer of course, but turned Soft Brexiteer, which is the only real alternative to WTO Brexit, and where we may wind up. He has avoided being implicated in the current scandals, and is in one of the great offices of state. He is currently out of favour, but that changes when the leader falls. I reckon the 30 at BFX is becoming value.

He would not get past the membership and polls worse than DD, Bojo and Amber v Corbyn.

At present. But when May falls, the world will appear different. A safe pair of hands in a very stormy sea.

Hunt is worth watching too.

The Tory membership are not going to pick a Remainer when May goes especially as we will still likely be in a transition period they will want to ensure ends.

It depends how May falls and when.

A sane, pro business, scandal-free Minister working to a soft Brexit is the only way to stop Jezza.

Except it isn't, Survation in June had Hammond taking the Tory voteshare 3% below that May got and Boris and Davis would get and 1% below Rudd would get. He would be the worst choice of the lot to stop Corbyn.

OchEye said:

Robert Peston writes a letter to his father, as a forward to his new book, worth a read....
https://behindthepaywallblog.wordpress.com/2017/10/28/robert-peston-i-dont-appear-to-be-living-in-the-same-britain-as-much-of-the-rest-of-the-country/

He says his father died in hospital of multiple infections acquired while in that hospital, and goes on to describe this as 'the worst, the most tragic luck. '. Really? Bad luck?

Tim_B said:

OchEye said:

Robert Peston writes a letter to his father, as a forward to his new book, worth a read....
https://behindthepaywallblog.wordpress.com/2017/10/28/robert-peston-i-dont-appear-to-be-living-in-the-same-britain-as-much-of-the-rest-of-the-country/

He says his father died in hospital of multiple infections acquired while in that hospital, and goes on to describe this as 'the worst, the most tragic luck. '. Really? Bad luck?

Yes, unless you have found a way of preventing infection absolutely. If so, can you remember us all with your Nobel prize winnings.

CarlottaVance said:

Boris must be relieved by the front pages - no “Extra 5 years in Iranian Prison after Boris Blunder” - and while I haven’t read the detail these “Paradise Papers” seem pretty thin gruel “Monaco resident avoids tax” is pretty much in “Dig bites man” territory.....

Pretty stupid of Panorama, and the rest of the news, to lead with the Hamilton story - which is pretty minor, compared to the mass of systematic evasion/avoidance details contained in the papers. Just as with the Queen 'revaluations', supposedly serious news programmes cannot resist the lure of celebrity.

PClipp said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/927668328054820865

I'm spending longer each day wondering why I'm still in the Tory party.

Quite a lot of people are thinking that. It is a healthy trend.

Looking at their current membership numbers, it can't be that many.

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/927668328054820865

I'm spending longer each day wondering why I'm still in the Tory party.

So are we. Given you voted LD in June and live in a LD v Labour marginal I expect they would welcome you aboard with open arms!

You really don't know what you're talking about.
I'm either a member of the Tory party or I'm not a member of any other party.
The Lib Dems aren't for me.

Well you have already voted for them and therefore lost your non Tory virginity to Nick Clegg, so I am sure he and Vince could persuade you to be a member too (in a dry Orange Book way)

I find Sir Vince Cable ghastly, he was the worst cabinet minister during the coalition.
I find Mark Reckless more appealing.

Yes but you agree with Cable on Brexit but not Reckless so either you accept we are leaving the single market and the EU and be a good little Toryboy and back Brexit or you join the LDs where you can still keep complaining about 'hard Brexit' and praising the EU to your hearts content!

You should take your head out of your arse.
Cable wants another referendum, I don't.

You still want the single market though which Cable has now effectively prioritised.

The Lib Dems want a FIRST referendum on the EU, based on facts and real positions for the future. Cameron`s referendum was a waste of time, a complete sham.

Beverley_C said:

I notice that Matf's Gavin spider appears to be a decapod

Evolution in action?

That or it has a TENS device....

Ah, so Tim Benson now looks at cartoons online. Great. And Beverley_C, a friend of Tim's? You both seem to have a special feeling for tarantulas. Who would have guessed.

Marfcartoonist said:

Ah, so Tim Benson now looks at cartoons online. Great. And Beverley_C, a friend of Tim's? You both seem to have a special feeling for tarantulas. Who would have guessed.

Who the hell is Tim Benson? Myself, I just surf the web

Beverley_C said:

I notice that Matf's Gavin spider appears to be a decapod

Evolution in action?

artistic licence!

After all it is a mutant spider with a human face.

Sorry, Beverley_C and Tim _B. Feeling paranoid after my spat with Tim Benson over a lot of things ... I'll go to sleep now.

Marfcartoonist said:

Sorry, Beverley_C and Tim _B. Feeling paranoid after my spat with Tim Benson over a lot of things ... I'll go to sleep now.

No problem, Marf. For what it's worth I googled Tim Benson and I still have no idea who he is.

foxinsoxuk said:

HYUFD said:

foxinsoxuk said:

HYUFD said:

foxinsoxuk said:

HYUFD said:

foxinsoxuk said:

SouthamObserver said:

This is now, without doubt, the worst government of my lifetime. The disgraceful antics of Johnson and Patel, and the PM’s inability to remove either of them confirm that. And yet, the Tories have every chance of winning the next election. Oh, Jeremy Corbyn ...

I think that a fair cop, this is a rankly incompetent administration.

When May falls, and it seems only a matter of time, who will be thought competent? Surely not DD, BoJo or Amber. All are too associated.

Perhaps Hammond is worth another look. Remainer of course, but turned Soft Brexiteer, which is the only real alternative to WTO Brexit, and where we may wind up. He has avoided being implicated in the current scandals, and is in one of the great offices of state. He is currently out of favour, but that changes when the leader falls. I reckon the 30 at BFX is becoming value.

He would not get past the membership and polls worse than DD, Bojo and Amber v Corbyn.

At present. But when May falls, the world will appear different. A safe pair of hands in a very stormy sea.

Hunt is worth watching too.

The Tory membership are not going to pick a Remainer when May goes especially as we will still likely be in a transition period they will want to ensure ends.

It depends how May falls and when.

A sane, pro business, scandal-free Minister working to a soft Brexit is the only way to stop Jezza.

Except it isn't, Survation in June had Hammond taking the Tory voteshare 3% below that May got and Boris and Davis would get and 1% below Rudd would get. He would be the worst choice of the lot to stop Corbyn.

You are basing it on current positions, the point is that the collapse of May will take others down and change those positions. May is known to be against Hammond. What finer recognition is needed?

You may well be right though. The Tories may prefer the purity of opposition to winning a GE, but I suspect pragmatism will prevail. Hammond is pragmatism personified.

Let’s see how the Budget goes......despite the challenges, I reckon the “safe pair of hands” (in its pre-scandal meaning) has passed to Hunt.....far enough removed from Brexit to be (relatively) uncontaminated....

For those of you who like the comic book movies, I was driving downtown the other day and 14th St was blocked because they were filming a sequence of the new Avengers movie (not with Steed and Emma).

And the Mail has more - this humiliation is clearly deliberate - with Trump cheering it on. What could possibly go wrong?

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5055923/Arrested-Saudi-princes-photographed-five-star-prison.html

Marfcartoonist said:

Ah, so Tim Benson now looks at cartoons online. Great. And Beverley_C, a friend of Tim's? You both seem to have a special feeling for tarantulas. Who would have guessed.

You don't mean the artist Tim Benson (http://timbenson.co.uk/) do you?

rcs1000 said:

OchEye said:

Robert Peston writes a letter to his father, as a forward to his new book, worth a read....
https://behindthepaywallblog.wordpress.com/2017/10/28/robert-peston-i-dont-appear-to-be-living-in-the-same-britain-as-much-of-the-rest-of-the-country/

Not a bad piece, although he falls into the typical fallacy of believing we've had austerity.

It depends what you mean by austerity. Some areas have seen real cuts although it is true that George Osborne did silently abandon Plan A fairly early on -- perhaps as a result of Ed Balls's hand gestures.

FrancisUrquhart said:

JonnyJimmy said:

BBC should teach their website's 'live reporters' the difference between evaders and avoiders of tax..

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-41879690?ns_mchannel=social&ns_source=twitter&ns_campaign=bbc_live&ns_linkname=5a00d33ae4b0cd5ea8fd9aa4&'This was not illegal'&&ns_fee=0#post_5a00d33ae4b0cd5ea8fd9aa4

BBC guidelines...

Tax avoiders - how we pay our talent in tax efficient manner

Tax evaders - how others pay themselves in tax efficient manner

The BBC probably does not pay Mrs Brown's tax avoiders directly but simply hands over a big sack of cash to the production company.

Andy_JS said:

A paragraph from the Peston letter:

"During most of the previous thirty-odd years, Britain and most of the rich West had been run on a deceitful prospectus. Labour and Tories had argued, and even for the most part believed, that they were governing for the whole nation. But that was tosh. They were governing for themselves and for those who work in the City and the service sector in London and the South-East. They were governing for property owners. They were governing for a highly skilled, internationally mobile elite of corporate executives, bankers and entrepreneurs. This is not revolutionary rhetoric, it is observable fact, which cannot be ignored by left or right."

https://behindthepaywallblog.wordpress.com/2017/10/28/robert-peston-i-dont-appear-to-be-living-in-the-same-britain-as-much-of-the-rest-of-the-country/

I'm afraid it's also tosh.

The world changed in the last 40 years, not because of the actions of the British government, but because of technology.

In 1977, the number of British authors who had international sales could probably be counted on the fingers of one hand. The City was organised solely around British companies and British savers.

The world globalised, thanks to technology and cheap travel. This was a boon to those with skills and foreign languages, and sucked for those who had neither.

But - to repeat - this was not die to the government running the country for these people, but because the world changed.

Let me take my favourite example. In the US, Fort Dearborn used to employ 130,000 people. It now employs 3,000 - and produces more vehicles. It sucks to be a skiller manual worker in the Great Lakes. But the problems are fundamentally the same as those when the spinning jenny came along; it made a whole class of people redundant.

Our government cannot mandate skilled working class manual jobs. Now, sure, it could do more to encourage them (look at Germany as a good example), but the truth is that more material products can be produced by fewer people. And we, as a nation, are dependent on our ability to produce things the world wants to pay for our raw materials.

rcs1000 said:

Andy_JS said:

A paragraph from the Peston letter:

"During most of the previous thirty-odd years, Britain and most of the rich West had been run on a deceitful prospectus. Labour and Tories had argued, and even for the most part believed, that they were governing for the whole nation. But that was tosh. They were governing for themselves and for those who work in the City and the service sector in London and the South-East. They were governing for property owners. They were governing for a highly skilled, internationally mobile elite of corporate executives, bankers and entrepreneurs. This is not revolutionary rhetoric, it is observable fact, which cannot be ignored by left or right."

https://behindthepaywallblog.wordpress.com/2017/10/28/robert-peston-i-dont-appear-to-be-living-in-the-same-britain-as-much-of-the-rest-of-the-country/

I'm afraid it's also tosh.

The world changed in the last 40 years, not because of the actions of the British government, but because of technology.

In 1977, the number of British authors who had international sales could probably be counted on the fingers of one hand.

Completely ignoring the rest of an excellent post, and embracing pre-breakfast pedantry, we could play games with that :-). Suspect there were more than 5 UK authors on the NYT Top 100 list at any point in 1977.

JRR Tolkien was no 1 for about 3 months for a start.

Here are the 6 more UK authors selling internationally, in 1977.

CS Lewis
Agatha Christie
William Shakespeare
Malcolm Muggeridge
Conan Doyle
Edgar Wallace

I am tempted to add Alistair Cooke and Jackie Collins, but they both crossed to the dark side decades earlier, and Jeffrey Archer might not quite have made it by 1977.