politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Big danger for TMay is that the Tory process for ousting a lea
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Big danger for TMay is that the Tory process for ousting a leader is totally separate from the contest that would follow
One of the things that doesn’t seem to have been appreciated about the CON rules is that the process of ousting a leader is totally separate from the leadership election that could follow.
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Clearly, yer man Cameron is the one to blame for the state of your party, and the Nation. Rightly or wrongly, he instigated the Referendum and then threw the towel in as soon as he could, despite his words that he'd stay on for a bit. If he'd hung around, maybe yer other man Osborne might have been in with a chance? Mind you, I can't blame him. He's got a hot wife, loads of money and a lifestyle not many of us will ever have. Why would he hang around to sort the mess out?
Edit-FIRST!
http://nypost.com/2017/10/04/archaeologists-discover-the-tomb-of-santa-claus/
The Welsh Government has announced a 'tourist tax' on visitors.
As tourism is a huge part of the economy Labour sees it as another magic money tree.
2) He realised he would have been seen as the wrong man to sort out the Brexit deal
3) If he has decided to stay on, the Leadbangers would have tried to force him out, so it wasn't up to him, which would have impacted on 2)
In regards of May I think the media are a bit harsh citing illness, the P45 stunt and the letter falling off the wall. All of these things were completely out of her gift and it could happen to anyone. I do think May is utterly out of her depth and the sooner she is replaced by someone better able to lead the better. The media have a narrative that she is on the road to nowhere so I expect her to gently slip into history very soon.
Bad cough?
Labour voters views on the EU were not decided in the campaign, or since 2015. Plenty will have been voting Lab for parliament and UKIP in euro elections.
Corbyn did remarkably well to carry so many imo. An alternative leadership extolling the EU unequivocally would have got less of a hearing from Labour voters.
Tory vote 2015 = 11,334,226
1. democracy and self-determination are very much flip sides of the same coin. The difference is simply a matter of scale.
2. democracy without some form of protection of minorities is not democracy but tyranny of the masses
3. regardless of constitutional law, preventing legitimate, non-violent expression of popular feelings, particularly when it represents a plurality or a majority of feeling within a particular well-defined geographical and cultural region, creates a pressure-cooker build up of steam which, unless carefully let off, inevitably will lead to violent explosion at some future point
4. masked armoured men dressed all in black hitting women, children and the elderly with rubber batons, pulling them by the hair and kicking them, while not in the class of violence of really nasty authoritarian regimes, simply cannot play in Western society.
I understand that they may believe that the stakes are high enough and the chance of beating the separatists into submission good enough that they think this approach is winnable.
But is that who they truly want to be? Do they truly believe that democracy can only mean upholding, by force if necessary, a Constitution that expressly prohibits some forms of democratic expression that would otherwise seem perfectly legitimate?
Or are thus just simply cynical and incompetent politicians?
Genuine question, asked from a position of both ignorance of and indifference to the Catalonia/Spain issue.
Macmillan had a meeting with Butler on 11 September and was careful to keep his options open (retire now, retire in the New Year, or fight the next election). He talked the matter over with his son Maurice and other senior ministers. Over lunch with Lord Swinton on 30 September he favoured stepping down, but only if Hailsham could be shoehorned in as his successor. He saw Butler on the morning of 7 October and told him he planned to stay on lead the Conservatives into the next General Election, then was struck down by prostate problems on the night of 7–8 October, on the eve of the Conservative Party conference.[181][182]
Macmillan was operated on at 11.30am on Thursday 10 October. Although it is sometimes stated that he believed himself to have inoperable prostate cancer, he in fact knew it was benign before the operation.
Macmillan was almost ready to leave hospital within ten days of the diagnosis and could easily have carried on, in the opinion of his doctor Sir John Richardson. His illness gave him a way out.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harold_Macmillan#Resignation
Theresa May made 2 policy promises today.
a) Build 5 homes a yr per Local Authority.
b) Resurrect an Energy Cap promise she's failed to keep
(I thank you!)
https://twitter.com/drphillipleemp/status/915624890488717312
https://twitter.com/jeremycorbyn/status/915614310122033152
https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/915632013637496832
They need to swallow the criticisms right now, get a Brexit deal, build a crap load of houses and then get a new young leader in that is still fresh for 2022. It's their only hope.
When I found out Cameron was about to resign, I did tell one of his staff
'At the end of his resignation speech, oh and I've triggered article 50'
A bit like the end of Watchmen.
I've seen no viable plan for her to rebuild her position, an almost impossible task. Sane Tories should be looking for a caretaker.
In my view, his historic error was to go for the 'simple in out referendum'. He should never have given people the option of voting for 'leave - no plan'.
I have no doubt that it is tormenting him now. No other explanation for his sudden departure from Parliament, and retreat from public life. He is ruined, as it is ruining May, and will probably ruin the next person as well (Boris?)
(PS for those interested: tally was 2 otters, 1 White-tailed Eagle, 5 Golden Eagles, 1 Merlin, 1 Hen Harrier, 1 (dead) Leatherback Turtle.)
It was pretty painful to watch. She will not be headlining again I am sure.
I think she will be gone by Christmas.
Wouldn't wish the cough on anyone, but the letters falling was just priceless. Think the delegates at Corbynfest enjoyed themselves rather more than the ones at Mayday?
May loses her seat in 2015, and Hammond or Fallon become PM in 2016 and we would have been spared the disaster of May.
https://reaction.life/may-must-go/
"feeling sorry for leaders and keeping them on out of sympathy is not, generally, a practical way to proceed when it comes to running a proper country. Especially when the country is with Brexit going through its largest peacetime undertaking in living memory.
Theresa May should be spared any more stress. It is over. Her public service in the spotlight is at an end and before it comes any creepier – a bunch of men keeping her in place propped up – her husband needs to intervene as he did so powerfully at the conclusion of the nightmare speech."
I also agree that David Davis is a credible unifying candidate.
Ivanka and Donald Trump Jr. Were Close to Being Charged With Felony Fraud
New York prosecutors were preparing a case. Then the D.A. overruled his staff after a visit from a top donor: Trump attorney Marc Kasowitz.
https://www.propublica.org/article/ivanka-donald-trump-jr-close-to-being-charged-felony-fraud
Just imagine a nice minority with C&S from nice Mr Clegg facing the even nicer Mr Milliband.
This could have all been avoided if Blair and Brown had delivered on their promise of a referendum on Lisbon.
Illiquid market but you can bet £100 at 4.1 if anyone wants to.
Whatever you thought of the policies themselves, the EU showed a tin ear (not for the first or last time) for how this appeared: a way for losing parties to subvert the result of an election in a member state. Delors placed the EU Commission in a position where they were seen by the then Tory government as on the side of the Labour opposition. Hence the Bruges speech etc.
Delors’ too clever for its own good action had consequences, the results of which we are seeing today.
Isn't it odd that the UK only left the EU when Labour had as Leader a eurosceptic who sabotaged the Remain campaign.
Oops:
For what it's worth, if May falls, I am going to claim my small part in her downfall...
After my post about the wonky Tory conference sign, someone obviously took notice and aligned things up properly. Unfortunately, they came up against a fundamental law of nature: blu-tack only sticks reliably the first time.
Cancelling Brexit without getting democratic legitimacy for such a decision would create even more problems than it would solve.
If we can cancel the 1940 general election to fix a calamitous mistake, why can't we do the same with Brexit?
Really interesting for those of us who like a bit of political geekery/box set ism!
"But before we go on: the science bit. Last year, the Tories were bedding in for a good 15 years of uninterrupted rule; this year, they were coming to terms with the fact that the bed had been shat."
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/oct/04/boris-lion-king-to-theresa-may-p45-malarial-week-tory-conference?CMP=share_btn_tw
The previous rationale for keeping her - muddle through Brexit, saddle her with the negatives, and engineer a fresh leader before the next election - is clearly a busted flush. First, it doesn't look as though she can last that long, and second it would mean another year of drift given the utter lack of any new policy.
More than anything, the sheer vacuity of her speech is what will doom her. The obvious exhaustion just provides a decent excuse.
The only way the Tories can change the narrative is actually to govern well and make a difference (however unlikely that might sound), and doing so takes a full term.
If one of those with ambitions doesn't make their move now, they are pretty well doomed to defeat at the next election anyway. Taking responsibility for Brexit is going to be a tough enough proposition without also having a year or two of aimless drift on domestic policy.
Feels like a Harriet Jones moment.