politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » TMontgomerie says BoJo would be a massive roll of the dice but

foxinsoxuk said:

The_Taxman said:

I am amused reading some of the comments on here.

I think Brexit supporters are seriously deluded if they think the EU will give the UK a good deal. I don't think it is in their (the EU) interests to offer any deal at all. It will either be stay as we are or leave in a disorderly fashion. My reasoning is simple: Firstly, just look at how the Eurozone countries like Greece have suffered and the EU has just ploughed on regardless. What hope of a deal for a country leaving the EU entirely, the Eurozone bailouts are repayable and they are committed to Eurozone membership and EU membership. Secondly, the EU institutions and the power they wield are not going to countenance any diminution in power by countries exiting, it is simply not in their interests to do so.

How I think this will play out is nothing will happen until the UKs MEPs elected term finishes in 2019. Then Johnson, who will be PM will advise he has tried negotiating and we cannot have our cake and eat it and will say it is not a wise path to follow and recommend continued membership with a few tweaks. If we stay in the EU I expect MEPs will not be elected using any form of PR but FPTP, which historically has killed parties before they got a toehold. UKIP and its remnants will be dead and their will be no platform for them to easily re-establish. Ultimately as professor Vernon Bogdanor has commented, a second referendum is likely. On this second referendum in my opinion Boris will be on the remain side.

Boris did once advocate voting Leave, then negotiate a better deal to Remain.

Which is the real Boris? that one or the hard Brexiteer? Tories better be sure...

I suspect Boris is the ultimate chameleon. He will twist and turn to anything as long as he gets what he wants, which is the keys to No.10. You don't have to look very far to see he has in the past at least had a very tawdry private life. You have to wonder if he can behave like that in a marriage, then what he might be capable of executing in politics? I don't trust Johnson but ironically he is the only Tory politician that can ultimately call Brexit off as he was so instrumental in the referendum for Leave.

I don't think HMG is serious about Brexit, I think they know it is undeliverable hence the poor performance in negotiations. It is just a matter of time before May and her team crumple and Johnson will be propelled into exiting Brexit.

The_Taxman said:

foxinsoxuk said:

The_Taxman said:

I am amused reading some of the comments on here.

I think Brexit supporters are seriously deluded if they think the EU will give the UK a good deal. I don't think it is in their (the EU) interests to offer any deal at all. It will either be stay as we are or leave in a disorderly fashion. My reasoning is simple: Firstly, just look at how the Eurozone countries like Greece have suffered and the EU has just ploughed on regardless. What hope of a deal for a country leaving the EU entirely, the Eurozone bailouts are repayable and they are committed to Eurozone membership and EU membership. Secondly, the EU institutions and the power they wield are not going to countenance any diminution in power by countries exiting, it is simply not in their interests to do so.

How I think this will play out is nothing will happen until the UKs MEPs elected term finishes in 2019. Then Johnson, who will be PM will advise he has tried negotiating and we cannot have our cake and eat it and will say it is not a wise path to follow and recommend continued membership with a few tweaks. If we stay in the EU I expect MEPs will not be elected using any form of PR but FPTP, which historically has killed parties before they got a toehold. UKIP and its remnants will be dead and their will be no platform for them to easily re-establish. Ultimately as professor Vernon Bogdanor has commented, a second referendum is likely. On this second referendum in my opinion Boris will be on the remain side.

Boris did once advocate voting Leave, then negotiate a better deal to Remain.

Which is the real Boris? that one or the hard Brexiteer? Tories better be sure...

I suspect Boris is the ultimate chameleon. He will twist and turn to anything as long as he gets what he wants, which is the keys to No.10. You don't have to look very far to see he has in the past at least had a very tawdry private life. You have to wonder if he can behave like that in a marriage, then what he might be capable of executing in politics? I don't trust Johnson but ironically he is the only Tory politician that can ultimately call Brexit off as he was so instrumental in the referendum for Leave.

I don't think HMG is serious about Brexit, I think they know it is undeliverable hence the poor performance in negotiations. It is just a matter of time before May and her team crumple and Johnson will be propelled into exiting Brexit.

Infidelity is not that unusual in a politician, but I think that you are right. Boris has enough social liberalism and chutzpah to do a reverse ferret on Brexit if the wind was blowing the wrong way.

When the Catalans realise that Barca will be thrown out of the spanish league and will be left playing noddy local teams with no route into the champions league they will change their mind. Some things are more important than polotics

Monksfield said:

SouthamObserver said:

Meanwhile, Jeremy Hunt has very clearly thrown his hat into the leadership ring in the most transparent way possible.
https://twitter.com/LBC/status/915246105344057344

Amazing, even as it feels like the Brexit tide is turning Tories are still racing to join the wrong side.

Remainers are the only people (and indeed only a subset of remainers, most are realists) who think the Brexit tide is turning.

And they've been thinking that from the start.

Forgive me if I take your comments with an enormous pile of salt.

rpjs said:

The_Taxman said:

If we stay in the EU I expect MEPs will not be elected using any form of PR but FPTP, which historically has killed parties before they got a toehold.

Except that it's an EU requirement that elections for MEPs be held by some form of PR. If by some miracle the UK does stay in the EU, it won't ever be getting any sort of opt-out again.

We could use STV - like they use in Northern Ireland and the Republic for their MEPs - so have a more local constituency link instead of the regional party list systems we and most EU states use.

STV allows you to vote for a person not a party. So voters choose their MEPs - not party HQs.

rcs1000 said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

SouthamObserver said:

Feel free to ignore me. I could be wrong. It could be that voters are desperate for someone to the right of Margaret Thatcher with social views anchored very firmly in the 1950s.

Nah. Even I agree with you and, his religious views apart, I do like JRM. But he shouldn't getvwithim a hundred miles of being PM.

I would still like David Davis but accept he is not likely to get the job either by choice or because he cannot enthuse the Tory party.

Otherwise I think they should be looking to bypass all of the current crop of hopefuls. They all have significant faults. Instead they should be looking to the younger generation. Someone like Mercer or Stewart could reinvigorate the party and the electorate.

Or Kwarteng,

But it has to be the Next Generation.

Agreed.

rottenborough said:

Yorkcity said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Off topic, a great article here from Jess Phillips on her family experience of UC.

https://twitter.com/foxinsoxuk/status/915259357964664833

Jess is as ambitious enough, would be a great leader.

I note Priti set out her stall today too.

Good article from an MP who has contact with people actually going through the process of claiming Universal Credit.As she says the problem is the complex cases , and this needs to be sorted out before any mass roll out to existing claimants .If they can not sort it out on new claimants, then pause until you can.

Worse, for Tories, as I understand it, a lot of people will on working tax credit/child credit will find they are losing money.

I believe that when existing claimants are migrated across from the legacy benefits to UC, DWP say they should be no worse.off through a transition period.In comparison new claimants would not get the same on UC as existing people on tax credits in similar circumstances.

kyf_100 said:

nichomar said:

When the Catalans realise that Barca will be thrown out of the spanish league and will be left playing noddy local teams with no route into the champions league they will change their mind. Some things are more important than polotics

Let's face it, most people see politics these days as little more than football anyway. Come on you reds. Come on you blues. My team's better than yours. I support my team even when they're shit. Listen to us chant. Oh Jeremy Corbyn! Blues are scum. You wanna fight about it?

This is of course one of the more reasonable places of political debate

At times it is reasonblle but some people have no regard for the more subtle sensitivities of life.

Jonathan said:

Yorkcity said:

Gary Gibbon on ch4 news said a cabinet minister told him you will never see Boris on a ballot paper to the conservative members.

Uncontested. </blockquote Johnathon I got the impression he meant two others not Boris would be on the ballot paper.As he said that the cabinet member was not worried about Boris speech to the the conference hall.

nichomar said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Monksfield said:

SouthamObserver said:

Meanwhile, Jeremy Hunt has very clearly thrown his hat into the leadership ring in the most transparent way possible.
https://twitter.com/LBC/status/915246105344057344

Amazing, even as it feels like the Brexit tide is turning Tories are still racing to join the wrong side.

Feels like but no evidence opinion has moved either way. Brexit happens on the 29th March 2019

The Spanish king about to address the people as the EU wash their hands as a member state turns it's own police and storm troopers on it's own citizens with hundreds of injuries as they try to stop democracy.

It is reported tonight that Catalonia will declare Independence and demand the EU recognises it.

This could be a bigger crisis for the EU than Brexit

The EU won't recognise them, the rest of spain is behind the government I have no idea where this is goining to end

The EU could not recognise them but this has the makings of a disater for Spain and may well cause restlessness and economic problems across Europe.

nichomar said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Monksfield said:

SouthamObserver said:

Meanwhile, Jeremy Hunt has very clearly thrown his hat into the leadership ring in the most transparent way possible.
https://twitter.com/LBC/status/915246105344057344

Amazing, even as it feels like the Brexit tide is turning Tories are still racing to join the wrong side.

Feels like but no evidence opinion has moved either way. Brexit happens on the 29th March 2019

The Spanish king about to address the people as the EU wash their hands as a member state turns it's own police and storm troopers on it's own citizens with hundreds of injuries as they try to stop democracy.

It is reported tonight that Catalonia will declare Independence and demand the EU recognises it.

This could be a bigger crisis for the EU than Brexit

The EU won't recognise them, the rest of spain is behind the government I have no idea where this is goining to end

Spain will ultimately have to concede a referendum on secession. They've made it worse with their actions this weekend.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Monksfield said:

SouthamObserver said:

Meanwhile, Jeremy Hunt has very clearly thrown his hat into the leadership ring in the most transparent way possible.
https://twitter.com/LBC/status/915246105344057344

Amazing, even as it feels like the Brexit tide is turning Tories are still racing to join the wrong side.

Feels like but no evidence opinion has moved either way. Brexit happens on the 29th March 2019

The Spanish king about to address the people as the EU wash their hands as a member state turns it's own police and storm troopers on it's own citizens with hundreds of injuries as they try to stop democracy.

It is reported tonight that Catalonia will declare Independence and demand the EU recognises it.

This could be a bigger crisis for the EU than Brexit

The EU will not recognise it. Neither will the UK or any other democracy anywhere. However violent the reaction from the Spanish authorities - and it was violent and it was utterly self-defeating - you do not recognise a unilateral declaration of independence based on a referendum with a 42% turnout and with opinion polls consistently showing a majority of Catalans wanting to remain as part of Spain.

nichomar said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Monksfield said:

SouthamObserver said:

Meanwhile, Jeremy Hunt has very clearly thrown his hat into the leadership ring in the most transparent way possible.
https://twitter.com/LBC/status/915246105344057344

Amazing, even as it feels like the Brexit tide is turning Tories are still racing to join the wrong side.

Feels like but no evidence opinion has moved either way. Brexit happens on the 29th March 2019

The Spanish king about to address the people as the EU wash their hands as a member state turns it's own police and storm troopers on it's own citizens with hundreds of injuries as they try to stop democracy.

It is reported tonight that Catalonia will declare Independence and demand the EU recognises it.

This could be a bigger crisis for the EU than Brexit

The EU won't recognise them, the rest of spain is behind the government I have no idea where this is goining to end

It will end when the government changes in Madrid and a deal is done to give the Catalans more autonomy, which is all most of them have ever wanted. If the PP stays in power, though, eventually Catalonia will become independent.

Valencia was absolutely brilliant, by the way. What a fabulous place. I can't believe I have not been before.

Catalonia saying it is repression by the State and they will claim Independence

Monksfield said:

nichomar said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Monksfield said:

SouthamObserver said:

Meanwhile, Jeremy Hunt has very clearly thrown his hat into the leadership ring in the most transparent way possible.
https://twitter.com/LBC/status/915246105344057344

Amazing, even as it feels like the Brexit tide is turning Tories are still racing to join the wrong side.

Feels like but no evidence opinion has moved either way. Brexit happens on the 29th March 2019

The Spanish king about to address the people as the EU wash their hands as a member state turns it's own police and storm troopers on it's own citizens with hundreds of injuries as they try to stop democracy.

It is reported tonight that Catalonia will declare Independence and demand the EU recognises it.

This could be a bigger crisis for the EU than Brexit

The EU won't recognise them, the rest of spain is behind the government I have no idea where this is goining to end

Spain will ultimately have to concede a referendum on secession. They've made it worse with their actions this weekend.

Yes they have but i'm not sure if they will, Rajoy seems to be safe despite beinble able to be brought down at any time. As with all policing out here they don't pussyfoot about. The news coverage, in my mind, is biased towards the Catalans, what we saw at the weekend is policing as normal. You might not like it but that is how they do it.

The King of Spain giving the Catalans a 'telling off' and admitting security and stability at risk as the Catalans try to put an end to the unity of Spain

Can anyone imagine HRH lecturing and hectoring the Scots

Cannot see this is going to calm matters

BBC Clip of Spanish King's Speech.

https://twitter.com/BBCBreaking/status/915292710667350016

Big_G_NorthWales said:

The King of Spain giving the Catalans a 'telling off' and admitting security and stability at risk as the Catalans try to put an end to the unity of Spain

Can anyone imagine HRH lecturing and hectoring the Scots

Cannot see this is going to calm matters

HM did intervene for the Union is the closing days of Scotland's legal and constitutional referendum. We've no idea what she'd have said if Scotland had held an illegal and unconstitutional referendum.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

The King of Spain giving the Catalans a 'telling off' and admitting security and stability at risk as the Catalans try to put an end to the unity of Spain

Can anyone imagine HRH lecturing and hectoring the Scots

Cannot see this is going to calm matters

No, but in fairness the situation is not entirely comparable even excusing the less confrontational and legally strained situation our referendum took place - after all, IIRC the Scots were, at least in the short term, intending to retain HMQ as head of state, whereas the Catalan regional authorities intend to be a presidential republic. There's far less need to or reason to be accommodating with them from the king.

On the other hand, I think it would have been incredible if King Felipe had delivered the address in full regalia, that would have been something to see.

SouthamObserver said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Monksfield said:

SouthamObserver said:

Meanwhile, Jeremy Hunt has very clearly thrown his hat into the leadership ring in the most transparent way possible.
https://twitter.com/LBC/status/915246105344057344

Amazing, even as it feels like the Brexit tide is turning Tories are still racing to join the wrong side.

Feels like but no evidence opinion has moved either way. Brexit happens on the 29th March 2019

The Spanish king about to address the people as the EU wash their hands as a member state turns it's own police and storm troopers on it's own citizens with hundreds of injuries as they try to stop democracy.

It is reported tonight that Catalonia will declare Independence and demand the EU recognises it.

This could be a bigger crisis for the EU than Brexit

The EU will not recognise it. Neither will the UK or any other democracy anywhere. However violent the reaction from the Spanish authorities - and it was violent and it was utterly self-defeating - you do not recognise a unilateral declaration of independence based on a referendum with a 42% turnout and with opinion polls consistently showing a majority of Catalans wanting to remain as part of Spain.

Indeed. The 42% is honestly not bad given the disruption, if we accept it as face value, but its still too troublesome for others to recognise it, and additionally there are not likely to be many in the world who will recognise it if they want to be friends with Spain as well.

YellowSubmarine said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

The King of Spain giving the Catalans a 'telling off' and admitting security and stability at risk as the Catalans try to put an end to the unity of Spain

Can anyone imagine HRH lecturing and hectoring the Scots

Cannot see this is going to calm matters

HM did intervene for the Union is the closing days of Scotland's legal and constitutional referendum. We've no idea what she'd have said if Scotland had held an illegal and unconstitutional referendum.

Well, Spain should call a legal and constitutional referendum.

I was chatting to an acquaintance last week. She was telling me about being migrated from ESA to UC. She waited 8 weeks and 1 day between the last ESA payment and the first UC one. Her mental health problems were in remission though she was heavily medicated. Towards the end with absolutely no food or power in her flat and having been unable to cope with the DWP's cock up of the process and demands for duplicate documentation her anxiety returned so powerfully she started pulling her own skin off and shortly after was admitted to hospital as an inpatient.

YellowSubmarine said:

I was chatting to an acquaintance last week. She was telling me about being migrated from ESA to UC. She waited 8 weeks and 1 day between the last ESA payment and the first UC one. Her mental health problems were in remission though she was heavily medicated. Towards the end with absolutely no food or power in her flat and having been unable to cope with the DWP's cock up f the process and demands for duplicate documentation her anxiety returned so powerfully she started pulling her own skin off and shortly after was admitted to hospital as an inpatient.

That is dreadful and not acceptable.

I believe David Gaulke announced today changes to address the delays in payments and the availability from day one of monies in cases of need.

rcs1000 said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

SouthamObserver said:

Feel free to ignore me. I could be wrong. It could be that voters are desperate for someone to the right of Margaret Thatcher with social views anchored very firmly in the 1950s.

Nah. Even I agree with you and, his religious views apart, I do like JRM. But he shouldn't getvwithim a hundred miles of being PM.

I would still like David Davis but accept he is not likely to get the job either by choice or because he cannot enthuse the Tory party.

Otherwise I think they should be looking to bypass all of the current crop of hopefuls. They all have significant faults. Instead they should be looking to the younger generation. Someone like Mercer or Stewart could reinvigorate the party and the electorate.

Or Kwarteng,

But it has to be the Next Generation.

Liz Truss and Dominic Raab come across as the most normal yet credible leaders to me.

dr_spyn said:

BBC Clip of Spanish King's Speech.

https://twitter.com/BBCBreaking/status/915292710667350016

This looks like it's going from bad to worse?

The_Taxman said:

I am amused reading some of the comments on here.

I think Brexit supporters are seriously deluded if they think the EU will give the UK a good deal. I don't think it is in their (the EU) interests to offer any deal at all. It will either be stay as we are or leave in a disorderly fashion. My reasoning is simple: Firstly, just look at how the Eurozone countries like Greece have suffered and the EU has just ploughed on regardless. What hope of a deal for a country leaving the EU entirely, the Eurozone bailouts are repayable and they are committed to Eurozone membership and EU membership. Secondly, the EU institutions and the power they wield are not going to countenance any diminution in power by countries exiting, it is simply not in their interests to do so.

How I think this will play out is nothing will happen until the UKs MEPs elected term finishes in 2019. Then Johnson, who will be PM will advise he has tried negotiating and we cannot have our cake and eat it and will say it is not a wise path to follow and recommend continued membership with a few tweaks. If we stay in the EU I expect MEPs will not be elected using any form of PR but FPTP, which historically has killed parties before they got a toehold. UKIP and its remnants will be dead and their will be no platform for them to easily re-establish. Ultimately as professor Vernon Bogdanor has commented, a second referendum is likely. On this second referendum in my opinion Boris will be on the remain side.

Completely delusional from start to finish. The great final touch was quoting Bogdanor - a member of the ruling council of the Federal Trust who wants the UK to be part of a single European Federal state. It is the equivalent of quoting Nigel Farage as a neutral authority on immigration.

@Richard_Tyndall A good and fair question. In the first instance it's possible to recognise Universal Credit is a good thing in principle ( which in my view it is ) but also recognise the British State was never going to deliver an It system of this complexity properly so oppose it in practice. That's not an elegant position but it is a reasonable one.

The other issue is the blurred boundary between policy design and implementation. So since the coalition began this project the war between Osborne and Duncan Smith had huge casualties in policy terms. Exhibit A being the deuniversalisation of Council Tax Benefit. A small but significant breach in the principle noone would be worse off in work which was at the core of UC.

YellowSubmarine said:

@Richard_Tyndall A good and fair question. In the first instance it's possible to recognise Universal Credit is a good thing in principle ( which in my view it is ) but also recognise the British State was never going to deliver an It system of this complexity properly so oppose it in practice. That's not an elegant position but it is a reasonable one.

The other issue is the blurred boundary between policy design and implementation. So since the coalition began this project the war between Osborne and Duncan Smith had huge casualties in policy terms. Exhibit A being the deuniversalisation of Council Tax Benefit. A small but significant breach in the principle noone would be worse off in work which was at the core of UC.

Fair comment. I know all the claims from IDS that the scheme was being destroyed by Osborne were taken with a large pinch of salt but it does seem to me that he genuinely believed he had a scheme that would work and be fair and helpful but saw it ruined by the Treasury who saw it, first and foremost, as a way to cut the budget.

I do wonder if it could be salvaged if run by someone who actually wanted it to work rather than saw it as a cost cutting exercise.

So General Franco's appointed successor supports the Madrid government against the Republic. No surprise there.

@Richard_Tyndall Then you have the fact a good chunk of the post 2010 welfare cuts haven't been about reducing the deficit but about paying for UC ! Both in terms of implementation costs but also in terms of paying for the Taper. UC should really be a Summer project introduced in Boom years. But it's being introduced in the Winter of Austerity.

So as IDS fought to save his Magnum Opus he destroyed the village to save the village. So the focus has been on the human misery of the Bedroom Tax for instance but the Bedroom Tax was a deuniversalisation of a benefit to provide savings to introduce UC.

To oversimplify Osborne wrecked UC but didn't manage to kill it. Duncan Smith birthed UC but at the price of compromising big chunks of it's core purpose.

Bloody hell, I agree with Montie.

SandyRentool said:

So General Franco's appointed successor supports the Madrid government against the Republic. No surprise there.

To be fair to the King. It was his Dad who was Franco's successor not him...

SandyRentool said:

So General Franco's appointed successor supports the Madrid government against the Republic. No surprise there.

One thing worth noting is that Franco was pretty popular with about half of Spain.

kle4 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

The King of Spain giving the Catalans a 'telling off' and admitting security and stability at risk as the Catalans try to put an end to the unity of Spain

Can anyone imagine HRH lecturing and hectoring the Scots

Cannot see this is going to calm matters

No, but in fairness the situation is not entirely comparable even excusing the less confrontational and legally strained situation our referendum took place - after all, IIRC the Scots were, at least in the short term, intending to retain HMQ as head of state, whereas the Catalan regional authorities intend to be a presidential republic. There's far less need to or reason to be accommodating with them from the king.

On the other hand, I think it would have been incredible if King Felipe had delivered the address in full regalia, that would have been something to see.

Don't think the Spanish firm do full regalia, perhaps acknowledging the bigger republican strain in their realm.

@Richard_Tyndall Compare and contrast the way the flat rate state pension is being introduced. It's only being paid to new claimants with years of warning. There is no way a British government would do to existing pensioners what it's doing to existing benefit claimants. So for instance increasing the ' waiting Days ' from 3 to 7 was another Osborne stunt despite knowing the impact it would have on UC implementation.

But the fringe suicides, evictions, family breakdowns and miler miseries are neither here nor there. We decided as a society claimants can be treated that way ages ago.

The politics of UC is that for Millions ( plural ) UC is an in work benefit. When the Sun discovers what migration means in the short term for many of it's readers and because they will be sympathetic claimants who aren't really seen as claimants as they are in work they'll be he'll to pay.

And starting the deeper roll out in early October means an initial wave of awful cases in the run up to Christmas.

YellowSubmarine said:

@Richard_Tyndall Compare and contrast the way the flat rate state pension is being introduced. It's only being paid to new claimants with years of warning. There is no way a British government would do to existing pensioners what it's doing to existing benefit claimants. So for instance increasing the ' waiting Days ' from 3 to 7 was another Osborne stunt despite knowing the impact it would have on UC implementation.

But the fringe suicides, evictions, family breakdowns and miler miseries are neither here nor there. We decided as a society claimants can be treated that way ages ago.

The politics of UC is that for Millions ( plural ) UC is an in work benefit. When the Sun discovers what migration means in the short term for many of it's readers and because they will be sympathetic claimants who aren't really seen as claimants as they are in work they'll be he'll to pay.

And starting the deeper roll out in early October means an initial wave of awful cases in the run up to Christmas.

Not with today's announcements

Philip_Thompson said:

YellowSubmarine said:

@Richard_Tyndall Then you have the fact a good chunk of the post 2010 welfare cuts haven't been about reducing the deficit but about paying for UC ! Both in terms of implementation costs but also in terms of paying for the Taper. UC should really be a Summer project introduced in Boom years. But it's being introduced in the Winter of Austerity.

So as IDS fought to save his Magnum Opus he destroyed the village to save the village. So the focus has been on the human misery of the Bedroom Tax for instance but the Bedroom Tax was a deuniversalisation of a benefit to provide savings to introduce UC.

To oversimplify Osborne wrecked UC but didn't manage to kill it. Duncan Smith birthed UC but at the price of compromising big chunks of it's core purpose.

I don't think that's accurate whatsoever.

The reason we have record levels of employment and record low levels of unemployment is precisely because benefit reforms (including UC) are working.

They may be difficult but sometimes there are no easy solutions. But the proof is in the pudding and people are at last choosing to work.

We disagree Phillip. I think that's the sort of trite cobblers that got us into the mess. And of course UC is an in work benefit.

King Juan Carlos ordered the army to crush an attempted coup in 1981.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/1981/feb/23/spain.fromthearchive

How far his son, has managed to inflame the present situation remains to be seen, but calls for an immediate UDI and a Catalan republic have been made. The question is are the Catalan politicians and government in Madrid willing to compromise or not.

YellowSubmarine said:

Philip_Thompson said:

YellowSubmarine said:

@Richard_Tyndall Then you have the fact a good chunk of the post 2010 welfare cuts haven't been about reducing the deficit but about paying for UC ! Both in terms of implementation costs but also in terms of paying for the Taper. UC should really be a Summer project introduced in Boom years. But it's being introduced in the Winter of Austerity.

So as IDS fought to save his Magnum Opus he destroyed the village to save the village. So the focus has been on the human misery of the Bedroom Tax for instance but the Bedroom Tax was a deuniversalisation of a benefit to provide savings to introduce UC.

To oversimplify Osborne wrecked UC but didn't manage to kill it. Duncan Smith birthed UC but at the price of compromising big chunks of it's core purpose.

I don't think that's accurate whatsoever.

The reason we have record levels of employment and record low levels of unemployment is precisely because benefit reforms (including UC) are working.

They may be difficult but sometimes there are no easy solutions. But the proof is in the pudding and people are at last choosing to work.

We disagree Phillip. I think that's the sort of trite cobblers that got us into the mess. And of course UC is an in work benefit.

If I'm talking trite cobblers then what is your alternative reason why we have record high levels of employment and record low levels of unemployment?

TheScreamingEagles said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

I am interested to know if the opponents of the UC scheme are opposed because of the principle of UC (which seems to me a good one given the traps that existed under the previous benefits system that prevented people pursuing work) or only object because of the catastrophically bad way it is being implemented?

If the latter then it needs to be made clear to the wider public by those protesting that the issue is not the scheme itself but the failures of the Government to ensure it is properly introduced and managed.

My friend who works at a Jobcentre plus that has rolled out universal credit says her biggest issue is the single recipient of the benefits.

In the past if there were two recipients of different benefits, they would be paid individually, now it just goes to one of them as a lump sum, which causes issues, this Guardian piece gives a flavor.

Take, for example, the stipulation that the benefit must be paid to a single head of household rather than to individual claimants. While this may reduce administration efforts and complications for the DWP, whose IT systems have already been dogged by universal credit-related glitches, it is also effective in disempowering women.

Access to financial resource is, after all, a key factor in gender inequality and one that has direct implications for child poverty. With women more likely to be out of work or in low-paid employment, a 1950s-esque “head of household” model based on outdated nuclear family units is likely to see men in heterosexual partnerships taking on the breadwinner role, stripping their partners of financial independence and decision-making power.

Given that sanctions can be imposed on a whole household while payments are made to a designated recipient, women are left bearing responsibilities but with few of the rights that should reasonably go along with them. This situation is further worsened for women who find themselves in abusive relationships: by robbing women of access to financial independence and resources, the state essentially awards abusive men another means by which to trap their victims.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/may/01/conservatives-universal-credit-hard-work

She also has other issues with universal credit, such as housing benefit no longer being paid directly to the landlord, and that UC is paid monthly, not fortnightly, some of the people on benefits have no concept of budgeting, fortnightly payments help with budgeting, monthly, less so.

Not paying HB direct to landlords was phased out before UC I think?

SeanT said:

I just got paid an UNEXPECTED £63,000

Plop. 63 grand. In my account, to my total surprise. Turns out it is recent royalties for S K Tremayne in Germany (I had no idea the Fire Child was such a hit there).

I tell you, if you want intermittent, sporadic but quite intense highs, then write a book that Does Well In Foreign Parts.

There is nothing, outwith the sexual act, that is as purely, purely pleasurable as unexpected foreign royalties. It's better than winning the lottery, because that is just luck, and you played no part in it.

I'm having a nice glass of wine from a pleasant part of the EU, to celebrate.

https://youtu.be/Lj-9lSEBBm0

Philip_Thompson said:

YellowSubmarine said:

Philip_Thompson said:

YellowSubmarine said:

@Richard_Tyndall Then you have the fact a good chunk of the post 2010 welfare cuts haven't been about reducing the deficit but about paying for UC ! Both in terms of implementation costs but also in terms of paying for the Taper. UC should really be a Summer project introduced in Boom years. But it's being introduced in the Winter of Austerity.

So as IDS fought to save his Magnum Opus he destroyed the village to save the village. So the focus has been on the human misery of the Bedroom Tax for instance but the Bedroom Tax was a deuniversalisation of a benefit to provide savings to introduce UC.

To oversimplify Osborne wrecked UC but didn't manage to kill it. Duncan Smith birthed UC but at the price of compromising big chunks of it's core purpose.

I don't think that's accurate whatsoever.

The reason we have record levels of employment and record low levels of unemployment is precisely because benefit reforms (including UC) are working.

They may be difficult but sometimes there are no easy solutions. But the proof is in the pudding and people are at last choosing to work.

We disagree Phillip. I think that's the sort of trite cobblers that got us into the mess. And of course UC is an in work benefit.

If I'm talking trite cobblers then what is your alternative reason why we have record high levels of employment and record low levels of unemployment?

I was debating UC implementation. I'm under no obligation to go along with your shameless attempt to change the subject.

Elliot said:

rcs1000 said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

SouthamObserver said:

Feel free to ignore me. I could be wrong. It could be that voters are desperate for someone to the right of Margaret Thatcher with social views anchored very firmly in the 1950s.

Nah. Even I agree with you and, his religious views apart, I do like JRM. But he shouldn't getvwithim a hundred miles of being PM.

I would still like David Davis but accept he is not likely to get the job either by choice or because he cannot enthuse the Tory party.

Otherwise I think they should be looking to bypass all of the current crop of hopefuls. They all have significant faults. Instead they should be looking to the younger generation. Someone like Mercer or Stewart could reinvigorate the party and the electorate.

Or Kwarteng,

But it has to be the Next Generation.

Liz Truss and Dominic Raab come across as the most normal yet credible leaders to me.

She's too busy in China opening new pork markets to be leader.

*Grins*

The Spanish King, an Iberian warning about King Charles III?

TheScreamingEagles said:

The Spanish King, an Iberian warning about King Charles III?

We are all well aware of your deviant republican tendencies.

kle4 said:

SeanT said:

GIN1138 said:

dr_spyn said:

BBC Clip of Spanish King's Speech.

https://twitter.com/BBCBreaking/status/915292710667350016

This looks like it's going from bad to worse?

Fuck me. Imagine if the Queen did that. End of the monarchy?

And it's not like the Spanish monarchy is massively ancient and widely respected (like the British monarchy). It isn't. It's barely 40 years old, suffered a recent abdication, and is seen by many Spaniards as irrelevant, parasitic or downright venal.

This is not how you DO Constitutional Monarchy.

Spain is headed for a huge crisis.

Surely the only thing that might prevent a UDI at this point is the low turnout, but on the flip side the Catalan separatists have pushed themselves and been pushed by Madrid to the point can they afford not to at least attempt to make the declaration? Sure, Spain will take away the region's autonomy, but that is surely going to have to happen whether the Catalan government UDIs or not unless Madrid has been bluffing this whole time and is about to offer a whole tranche of new powers, which seems improbable.

The only reason the turnout wasn't higher is because of the voter suppression and intimidation from the Madrid government's stormtroopers. When you are dragged out of the polling station by your hair, it is a bit harsh to be classed as a no-show.

SeanT said:

I just got paid an UNEXPECTED £63,000

Plop. 63 grand. In my account, to my total surprise. Turns out it is recent royalties for S K Tremayne in Germany (I had no idea the Fire Child was such a hit there).

I tell you, if you want intermittent, sporadic but quite intense highs, then write a book that Does Well In Foreign Parts.

There is nothing, outwith the sexual act, that is as purely, purely pleasurable as unexpected foreign royalties. It's better than winning the lottery, because that is just luck, and you played no part in it.

I'm having a nice glass of wine from a pleasant part of the EU, to celebrate.

Don't forget to put half away to pay for your tax bill

*Checks to see if it is the lagershed*

Q: What's the difference between your penis and your bonus?

A: Your wife will always blow your bonus.

RobD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

The Spanish King, an Iberian warning about King Charles III?

We are all well aware of your deviant republican tendencies.

Well all know wee Jimmy Krankie is itching to hold an illegal and unconstitutional second indyref.

#JustSaying

dr_spyn said:

twitter.com/BBCBreaking/status/915315185644077061

Carles Puigdemont adding his bit to make the rest of the week a good time to not visit Barcelona.

Blimey, a UDI in western europe