politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » I now have huge doubts about the political judgment of Philip
Options
Comments
-
He is being sensible as associated membership would be far less problematic than any of the three options that are actually available to us: limited trade agreement, EEA or full membership of the EU. The option isn't available however, so we will continue to struggle with the other three.Big_G_NorthWales said:Nick Clegg on Marr - We should rejoin the outer orbit of the EU - what is he on!!!
0 -
Clegg is one of that group of politicians that seems to have no comprehension of how a failure to deliver a clean Brexit would lead to a catastrophic loss of confidence in our political class. It would be the expenses scandal cubed.Big_G_NorthWales said:Nick Clegg on Marr - We should rejoin the outer orbit of the EU - what is he on!!!
You've been instructed by the electorate. Do it. OK, the likes of Clegg made it their life's work to ensure by silence, subterfuge, skulduggery, that it WAS impossible to exit the EU. But they have to be shown to be wrong, or our democracy is shown to be worthless.
0 -
Mr. Mark, indeed. Those seeking us to remain need to do so via either a referendum of General Election, otherwise it could have dire consequences for the UK's political scene. Whilst it's currently very polarised, it could become much, much worse.0
-
I shall pass on your kind words Sunil.Sunil_Prasannan said:
All the best with the movie!MarqueeMark said:Greetings peeby-peeps. Back from my sabbatical from all things political.
The Good Lady Wifi has finally deliverd her Ferrari movie to Universal. A degree of normality reigns in the household. For about a week, until the next movie starts prep.....
0 -
Final betting post, I think I've found the weirdest (almost perfect) arb in history.
Donald Trump to announce discovery of alien life: 20/1
Alien Life not to be discovered* by 2020: 1/7
*('Discovered' is defined as "the sitting President of the USA making a statement confirming without doubt the existence of alternative, intelligent life beings from another planet.")
Unless Trump is replace before 2020 AND his replacement announces first contact, guaranteed profit! On the other hand, you can make more profit in the 2 and a bit years via P2P lending.
http://www.paddypower.com/bet/other-politics/donald-trump/Area-51-11860865.html?force_racing_css=N
http://www.paddypower.com/bet/novelty-bets/alien-existence?ev_oc_grp_ids=5120350 -
Corbyn says he has never taken an Uber and it needs to stop exploiting workers and improve its safety before a license can be reissued0
-
That has always been the left wing objection to the EU. They were also rather better prepared for leaving. Tony Benn's 'siege economy' was a terrible bit of branding but at least it recognised that leaving was a big deal that required some serious planning.Big_G_NorthWales said:Corbyn on Marr rejecting membership of the single market on grounds of state aid and nationalisation
0 -
Surely that is the official position of the Foreign Office?Big_G_NorthWales said:Corbyn has no answers on Brexit other than cake and eat it
0 -
Marr - What has happened to Jeremy Corbyn you cannot answer the question'
Corbyn getting very tetchy0 -
Mr. Quincel, ha, that's rather good.0
-
You could say it better , " they want their and they want to eat it", it will never happen.DavidL said:
Stripping out the spin it is undoubtedly true that what the UK wants is unrestricted access to the single market with freedom of movement being at the UK's discretion. It seems to be an entirely sensible objective. Whether it is achievable remains to be seen.williamglenn said:A theory: the cabinet Brexit committee's real goal has always been to renegotiate membership of the single market without free movement of people.
- The tried prenegotiation but that didn't work. The assumed this was because the EU didn't think they would go through with leaving.
- They announced we would leave the single market. This didn't have the shock effect they were hoping for. Instead the EU welcomed the apparent clarity of the position.
- Hoping we could still shock the EU into submission we invoked Article 50, but instead of a generous offer we got a watertight set of negotiating guidelines that gave us no room for manoeuvre.
- Panic sets in, and they decide that they need a massive majority to force the EU to take them seriously. May calls the election expecting this to happen.
They completely misjudged the strategic from start to finish and now don't how to get out of the mess.0 -
Dear God, they make Labour look full of talent.HYUFD said:
Tom Tugendhadt, Rory Stewart, Jonny Mercer all potential successors to May if she promotes them to CabinetPClipp said:Reading through TSE`s introduction, it seems the country had a narrow escape. Any one of the three would have been a disaster. Talk about frying pans and fires! At least Mrs May is an extinct volcano.
Isn`t there anybody at least half good in the Conservative Party?0 -
Cake missing there Malcmalcolmg said:
You could say it better , " they want their and they want to eat it", it will never happen.DavidL said:
Stripping out the spin it is undoubtedly true that what the UK wants is unrestricted access to the single market with freedom of movement being at the UK's discretion. It seems to be an entirely sensible objective. Whether it is achievable remains to be seen.williamglenn said:A theory: the cabinet Brexit committee's real goal has always been to renegotiate membership of the single market without free movement of people.
- The tried prenegotiation but that didn't work. The assumed this was because the EU didn't think they would go through with leaving.
- They announced we would leave the single market. This didn't have the shock effect they were hoping for. Instead the EU welcomed the apparent clarity of the position.
- Hoping we could still shock the EU into submission we invoked Article 50, but instead of a generous offer we got a watertight set of negotiating guidelines that gave us no room for manoeuvre.
- Panic sets in, and they decide that they need a massive majority to force the EU to take them seriously. May calls the election expecting this to happen.
They completely misjudged the strategic from start to finish and now don't how to get out of the mess.0 -
Labour's "complete mess" is arguably a more settled position than the government's, which is the one we are trying to implement.MarqueeMark said:
Labour are in a complete mess on the EU. Risible. And the rest of their policies are quickly catching up.... Tories need to settle down, get on with delivering Brexit - and let the inevitable cataclysm at the heart of Labour run its natural course.Big_G_NorthWales said:Corbyn on Marr rejecting membership of the single market on grounds of state aid and nationalisation
0 -
Both parties need to split and we need electoral, nay constitutional, reform.
Neither party is fit for the 21st Century.0 -
If you listen to Corbyn he is not going to agree to membership of the single market or custom union and in that sense he is not on the same page as StarmerDecrepitJohnL said:
Labour's "complete mess" is arguably a more settled position than the government's, which is the one we are trying to implement.MarqueeMark said:
Labour are in a complete mess on the EU. Risible. And the rest of their policies are quickly catching up.... Tories need to settle down, get on with delivering Brexit - and let the inevitable cataclysm at the heart of Labour run its natural course.Big_G_NorthWales said:Corbyn on Marr rejecting membership of the single market on grounds of state aid and nationalisation
0 -
You spotted my deliberate mistake their G, just checking who was awake on this thread, or maybe I dozed off halfway through my reply. Gold star for you.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Cake missing there Malcmalcolmg said:
You could say it better , " they want their and they want to eat it", it will never happen.DavidL said:
Stripping out the spin it is undoubtedly true that what the UK wants is unrestricted access to the single market with freedom of movement being at the UK's discretion. It seems to be an entirely sensible objective. Whether it is achievable remains to be seen.williamglenn said:A theory: the cabinet Brexit committee's real goal has always been to renegotiate membership of the single market without free movement of people.
- The tried prenegotiation but that didn't work. The assumed this was because the EU didn't think they would go through with leaving.
- They announced we would leave the single market. This didn't have the shock effect they were hoping for. Instead the EU welcomed the apparent clarity of the position.
- Hoping we could still shock the EU into submission we invoked Article 50, but instead of a generous offer we got a watertight set of negotiating guidelines that gave us no room for manoeuvre.
- Panic sets in, and they decide that they need a massive majority to force the EU to take them seriously. May calls the election expecting this to happen.
They completely misjudged the strategic from start to finish and now don't how to get out of the mess.0 -
Crassus also achieved a starring role in the Bacchae, by Euripides.kle4 said:
I suppose Crassus was more of a Trump figure? He was into property development as I recall (I think wikipedia says he used to buy people's homes while they were burning down, in exchange for his fire fighters putting it out, so they could save some of their possessions at least, the little scamp).DavidL said:
Surely the bigger difference is that Crassus was a seriously wealthy man who could buy military support whilst Hammond simply has control of our money ex officio. Sack him and he doesn't. I think his assessment that he could not hope to start a leadership campaign himself was the right one, he has an insufficient base. I wonder if it was Boris who made him staying in post a condition of service. If so that is a serious favour banked.kle4 said:I do welcome any historical reference like this. Granted it apparently didn't succeed, but let's say that Crassus(Hammond) reached too far and he has now perished (insofar as political ambitions), the next step will be Boris and Davis in all out war, which Boris will win, but before too long he will be taken down (he has enough skeletons in his closet) and a family member will rally his support and take over for a long period.
The next but one Prime Minister - Jo Johnson.
The Parthian commander, Lord Suren, chucked his head on stage, during a performance before the King. The lead actor caught it, and declaimed "Blest is this prey, new shorn from the trunk, " to massive applause.0 -
It's been eaten.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Cake missing there Malcmalcolmg said:
You could say it better , " they want their and they want to eat it", it will never happen.DavidL said:
Stripping out the spin it is undoubtedly true that what the UK wants is unrestricted access to the single market with freedom of movement being at the UK's discretion. It seems to be an entirely sensible objective. Whether it is achievable remains to be seen.williamglenn said:A theory: the cabinet Brexit committee's real goal has always been to renegotiate membership of the single market without free movement of people.
- The tried prenegotiation but that didn't work. The assumed this was because the EU didn't think they would go through with leaving.
- They announced we would leave the single market. This didn't have the shock effect they were hoping for. Instead the EU welcomed the apparent clarity of the position.
- Hoping we could still shock the EU into submission we invoked Article 50, but instead of a generous offer we got a watertight set of negotiating guidelines that gave us no room for manoeuvre.
- Panic sets in, and they decide that they need a massive majority to force the EU to take them seriously. May calls the election expecting this to happen.
They completely misjudged the strategic from start to finish and now don't how to get out of the mess.0 -
Well both have more than the post Sturgeon SNP willmalcolmg said:
Dear God, they make Labour look full of talent.HYUFD said:
Tom Tugendhadt, Rory Stewart, Jonny Mercer all potential successors to May if she promotes them to CabinetPClipp said:Reading through TSE`s introduction, it seems the country had a narrow escape. Any one of the three would have been a disaster. Talk about frying pans and fires! At least Mrs May is an extinct volcano.
Isn`t there anybody at least half good in the Conservative Party?0 -
What is a clean brexit? My ballot paper said leave/remain just because Clegg thinks something different to you makes niether of you right/wrong.MarqueeMark said:
Clegg is one of that group of politicians that seems to have no comprehension of how a failure to deliver a clean Brexit would lead to a catastrophic loss of confidence in our political class. It would be the expenses scandal cubed.Big_G_NorthWales said:Nick Clegg on Marr - We should rejoin the outer orbit of the EU - what is he on!!!
You've been instructed by the electorate. Do it. OK, the likes of Clegg made it their life's work to ensure by silence, subterfuge, skulduggery, that it WAS impossible to exit the EU. But they have to be shown to be wrong, or our democracy is shown to be worthless.0 -
Indeed the Governments position is a carbon copy of what Labour proposed in the summer.DecrepitJohnL said:
Labour's "complete mess" is arguably a more settled position than the government's, which is the one we are trying to implement.MarqueeMark said:
Labour are in a complete mess on the EU. Risible. And the rest of their policies are quickly catching up.... Tories need to settle down, get on with delivering Brexit - and let the inevitable cataclysm at the heart of Labour run its natural course.Big_G_NorthWales said:Corbyn on Marr rejecting membership of the single market on grounds of state aid and nationalisation
Labour are fine on this. Tories own the Brexit shambles.0 -
Plenty of time for him to change his opinions G. Sense and Labour are incompatible words.Big_G_NorthWales said:
If you listen to Corbyn he is not going to agree to membership of the single market or custom union and in that sense he is not on the same page as StarmerDecrepitJohnL said:
Labour's "complete mess" is arguably a more settled position than the government's, which is the one we are trying to implement.MarqueeMark said:
Labour are in a complete mess on the EU. Risible. And the rest of their policies are quickly catching up.... Tories need to settle down, get on with delivering Brexit - and let the inevitable cataclysm at the heart of Labour run its natural course.Big_G_NorthWales said:Corbyn on Marr rejecting membership of the single market on grounds of state aid and nationalisation
0 -
Touch of insecurity there methinks.HYUFD said:
Well both have more than the post Sturgeon SNP willmalcolmg said:
Dear God, they make Labour look full of talent.HYUFD said:
Tom Tugendhadt, Rory Stewart, Jonny Mercer all potential successors to May if she promotes them to CabinetPClipp said:Reading through TSE`s introduction, it seems the country had a narrow escape. Any one of the three would have been a disaster. Talk about frying pans and fires! At least Mrs May is an extinct volcano.
Isn`t there anybody at least half good in the Conservative Party?0 -
LOLRecidivist said:
It's been eaten.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Cake missing there Malcmalcolmg said:
You could say it better , " they want their and they want to eat it", it will never happen.DavidL said:
Stripping out the spin it is undoubtedly true that what the UK wants is unrestricted access to the single market with freedom of movement being at the UK's discretion. It seems to be an entirely sensible objective. Whether it is achievable remains to be seen.williamglenn said:A theory: the cabinet Brexit committee's real goal has always been to renegotiate membership of the single market without free movement of people.
- The tried prenegotiation but that didn't work. The assumed this was because the EU didn't think they would go through with leaving.
- They announced we would leave the single market. This didn't have the shock effect they were hoping for. Instead the EU welcomed the apparent clarity of the position.
- Hoping we could still shock the EU into submission we invoked Article 50, but instead of a generous offer we got a watertight set of negotiating guidelines that gave us no room for manoeuvre.
- Panic sets in, and they decide that they need a massive majority to force the EU to take them seriously. May calls the election expecting this to happen.
They completely misjudged the strategic from start to finish and now don't how to get out of the mess.0 -
It was a gratifyingly uncomplicated time.Sean_F said:
Crassus also achieved a starring role in the Bacchae, by Euripides.kle4 said:
I suppose Crassus was more of a Trump figure? He was into property development as I recall (I think wikipedia says he used to buy people's homes while they were burning down, in exchange for his fire fighters putting it out, so they could save some of their possessions at least, the little scamp).DavidL said:
Surely the bigger difference is that Crassus was a seriously wealthy man who could buy military support whilst Hammond simply has control of our money ex officio. Sack him and he doesn't. I think his assessment that he could not hope to start a leadership campaign himself was the right one, he has an insufficient base. I wonder if it was Boris who made him staying in post a condition of service. If so that is a serious favour banked.kle4 said:I do welcome any historical reference like this. Granted it apparently didn't succeed, but let's say that Crassus(Hammond) reached too far and he has now perished (insofar as political ambitions), the next step will be Boris and Davis
The next but one Prime Minister - Jo Johnson.
The Parthian commander, Lord Suren, chucked his head on stage, during a performance before the King. The lead actor caught it, and declaimed "Blest is this prey, new shorn from the trunk, " to massive applause.
Indeed so. I think too close an orbit would not be acceptable to the majority, but it's a view.nichomar said:
What is a clean brexit? My ballot paper said leave/remain just because Clegg thinks something different to you makes niether of you right/wrong.MarqueeMark said:
Clegg is one of that group of politicians that seems to have no comprehension of how a failure to deliver a clean Brexit would lead to a catastrophic loss of confidence in our political class. It would be the expenses scandal cubed.Big_G_NorthWales said:Nick Clegg on Marr - We should rejoin the outer orbit of the EU - what is he on!!!
You've been instructed by the electorate. Do it. OK, the likes of Clegg made it their life's work to ensure by silence, subterfuge, skulduggery, that it WAS impossible to exit the EU. But they have to be shown to be wrong, or our democracy is shown to be worthless.
Truer words rarely spoken. Oh well, we shall fudge along.Monksfield said:Both parties need to split and we need electoral, nay constitutional, reform.
Neither party is fit for the 21st Century.0 -
You know Malc - I do not think he will as he wants freedom to provide state aid and nationalise.malcolmg said:
Plenty of time for him to change his opinions G. Sense and Labour are incompatible words.Big_G_NorthWales said:
If you listen to Corbyn he is not going to agree to membership of the single market or custom union and in that sense he is not on the same page as StarmerDecrepitJohnL said:
Labour's "complete mess" is arguably a more settled position than the government's, which is the one we are trying to implement.MarqueeMark said:
Labour are in a complete mess on the EU. Risible. And the rest of their policies are quickly catching up.... Tories need to settle down, get on with delivering Brexit - and let the inevitable cataclysm at the heart of Labour run its natural course.Big_G_NorthWales said:Corbyn on Marr rejecting membership of the single market on grounds of state aid and nationalisation
Marr was quite good interviewing him but he just waffles most of the time but on this he is nearer the most avid Brexiteer0 -
I would have preferred associate membership all along, but as you say it wasn't and isn't really available.FF43 said:
He is being sensible as associated membership would be far less problematic than any of the three options that are actually available to us: limited trade agreement, EEA or full membership of the EU. The option isn't available however, so we will continue to struggle with the other three.Big_G_NorthWales said:Nick Clegg on Marr - We should rejoin the outer orbit of the EU - what is he on!!!
0 -
Clegg would have no problem with EU law retaining primacy. Clegg would have no problem with such EU laws deciding who can and cannot come to the UK - and on what terms. Clegg would have no problems with continuing payments to the EU. None of those represent a clean Brexit.nichomar said:
What is a clean brexit? My ballot paper said leave/remain just because Clegg thinks something different to you makes niether of you right/wrong.MarqueeMark said:
Clegg is one of that group of politicians that seems to have no comprehension of how a failure to deliver a clean Brexit would lead to a catastrophic loss of confidence in our political class. It would be the expenses scandal cubed.Big_G_NorthWales said:Nick Clegg on Marr - We should rejoin the outer orbit of the EU - what is he on!!!
You've been instructed by the electorate. Do it. OK, the likes of Clegg made it their life's work to ensure by silence, subterfuge, skulduggery, that it WAS impossible to exit the EU. But they have to be shown to be wrong, or our democracy is shown to be worthless.0 -
Labour's position has still been confused and contradictory at times, it is a shambles - they are simply fortunate to not be in government with a slim (now non-existent) majority, so they will not be punished for their own shambolic take on things.foxinsoxuk said:
Indeed the Governments position is a carbon copy of what Labour proposed in the summer.DecrepitJohnL said:
Labour's "complete mess" is arguably a more settled position than the government's, which is the one we are trying to implement.MarqueeMark said:
Labour are in a complete mess on the EU. Risible. And the rest of their policies are quickly catching up.... Tories need to settle down, get on with delivering Brexit - and let the inevitable cataclysm at the heart of Labour run its natural course.Big_G_NorthWales said:Corbyn on Marr rejecting membership of the single market on grounds of state aid and nationalisation
Labour are fine on this. Tories own the Brexit shambles.0 -
Given the SNP voteshare fell 13% at the last general election and they lost almost half their seats nomalcolmg said:
Touch of insecurity there methinks.HYUFD said:
Well both have more than the post Sturgeon SNP willmalcolmg said:
Dear God, they make Labour look full of talent.HYUFD said:
Tom Tugendhadt, Rory Stewart, Jonny Mercer all potential successors to May if she promotes them to CabinetPClipp said:Reading through TSE`s introduction, it seems the country had a narrow escape. Any one of the three would have been a disaster. Talk about frying pans and fires! At least Mrs May is an extinct volcano.
Isn`t there anybody at least half good in the Conservative Party?
0 -
Theresa May is not exactly "doing it". She has given the can a firm whack with her elegantly shod foot. That's precisely because "clean Brexit" is impossible in practical terms. It's all about how you deal with the mess, or don't deal with it.MarqueeMark said:
Clegg is one of that group of politicians that seems to have no comprehension of how a failure to deliver a clean Brexit would lead to a catastrophic loss of confidence in our political class. It would be the expenses scandal cubed.Big_G_NorthWales said:Nick Clegg on Marr - We should rejoin the outer orbit of the EU - what is he on!!!
You've been instructed by the electorate. Do it. OK, the likes of Clegg made it their life's work to ensure by silence, subterfuge, skulduggery, that it WAS impossible to exit the EU. But they have to be shown to be wrong, or our democracy is shown to be worthless.0 -
The referendum vote was for Brexit. It didn’t require it to be “clean”, whatever that means.MarqueeMark said:
Clegg would have no problem with EU law retaining primacy. Clegg would have no problem with such EU laws deciding who can and cannot come to the UK - and on what terms. Clegg would have no problems with continuing payments to the EU. None of those represent a clean Brexit.nichomar said:
What is a clean brexit? My ballot paper said leave/remain just because Clegg thinks something different to you makes niether of you right/wrong.MarqueeMark said:
Clegg is one of that group of politicians that seems to have no comprehension of how a failure to deliver a clean Brexit would lead to a catastrophic loss of confidence in our political class. It would be the expenses scandal cubed.Big_G_NorthWales said:Nick Clegg on Marr - We should rejoin the outer orbit of the EU - what is he on!!!
You've been instructed by the electorate. Do it. OK, the likes of Clegg made it their life's work to ensure by silence, subterfuge, skulduggery, that it WAS impossible to exit the EU. But they have to be shown to be wrong, or our democracy is shown to be worthless.0 -
The big takeaway from recent events is that despite forming what is undoubtedly the most incompetent government in modern British political history the Tories are a good bet to win most seats at the next general election.
Oh, Jeremy Corbyn ...0 -
"own" = weaselspeak for "I want to say 'are responsible for' but I know that is not true".foxinsoxuk said:
Indeed the Governments position is a carbon copy of what Labour proposed in the summer.DecrepitJohnL said:
Labour's "complete mess" is arguably a more settled position than the government's, which is the one we are trying to implement.MarqueeMark said:
Labour are in a complete mess on the EU. Risible. And the rest of their policies are quickly catching up.... Tories need to settle down, get on with delivering Brexit - and let the inevitable cataclysm at the heart of Labour run its natural course.Big_G_NorthWales said:Corbyn on Marr rejecting membership of the single market on grounds of state aid and nationalisation
Labour are fine on this. Tories own the Brexit shambles.0 -
Mr. kle4, speaking of fudge, I've just been given two small boxes. Huzzah!0
-
Referendum: Tory policyIshmael_Z said:
"own" = weaselspeak for "I want to say 'are responsible for' but I know that is not true".foxinsoxuk said:
Indeed the Governments position is a carbon copy of what Labour proposed in the summer.DecrepitJohnL said:
Labour's "complete mess" is arguably a more settled position than the government's, which is the one we are trying to implement.MarqueeMark said:
Labour are in a complete mess on the EU. Risible. And the rest of their policies are quickly catching up.... Tories need to settle down, get on with delivering Brexit - and let the inevitable cataclysm at the heart of Labour run its natural course.Big_G_NorthWales said:Corbyn on Marr rejecting membership of the single market on grounds of state aid and nationalisation
Labour are fine on this. Tories own the Brexit shambles.
Triggering A50: Tory policy
Negotiations with EU: Tory policy.
Who is responsible, if not them?0 -
The voters?not_on_fire said:
Referendum: Tory policyIshmael_Z said:
"own" = weaselspeak for "I want to say 'are responsible for' but I know that is not true".foxinsoxuk said:
Indeed the Governments position is a carbon copy of what Labour proposed in the summer.DecrepitJohnL said:
Labour's "complete mess" is arguably a more settled position than the government's, which is the one we are trying to implement.MarqueeMark said:
Labour are in a complete mess on the EU. Risible. And the rest of their policies are quickly catching up.... Tories need to settle down, get on with delivering Brexit - and let the inevitable cataclysm at the heart of Labour run its natural course.Big_G_NorthWales said:Corbyn on Marr rejecting membership of the single market on grounds of state aid and nationalisation
Labour are fine on this. Tories own the Brexit shambles.
Triggering A50: Tory policy
Negotiations with EU: Tory policy.
Who is responsible, if not them?
0 -
Mr. Fire, an in/out referendum was also Lib Dem policy, and a Lisbon referendum was Labour policy (which they reneged upon).
The decision to leave was taken by the British electorate.
Entirely fair to criticise May for triggering Article 50 and, partially, for the negotiations to date.0 -
Labour's position changes by the day, not that that matters if one is in Opposition.DecrepitJohnL said:
Labour's "complete mess" is arguably a more settled position than the government's, which is the one we are trying to implement.MarqueeMark said:
Labour are in a complete mess on the EU. Risible. And the rest of their policies are quickly catching up.... Tories need to settle down, get on with delivering Brexit - and let the inevitable cataclysm at the heart of Labour run its natural course.Big_G_NorthWales said:Corbyn on Marr rejecting membership of the single market on grounds of state aid and nationalisation
0 -
McDonnell on Peston waffling like Corbyn
The interesting thing this morning is that both Corbyn on Marr and McDonnell on Peston show they are not very good at being cross examined.
Also McDonnell seems to be backing away on student fees and trying to get Hammond to change the system and claim credit for it. He did not give a guarantee labour will scrap students fees altogether
My principal critism of Theresa is they way she kept Hammond and others away from attacking Corbyn 's economics. The one thing is certain it will not happen next time0 -
The political imperative does. The LibDems tried to deny that in the June election. Here in the South-West, the Tory majority over the Lib Dems in Torbay went from 3,200 to 14,200....not_on_fire said:
The referendum vote was for Brexit. It didn’t require it to be “clean”, whatever that means.MarqueeMark said:
Clegg would have no problem with EU law retaining primacy. Clegg would have no problem with such EU laws deciding who can and cannot come to the UK - and on what terms. Clegg would have no problems with continuing payments to the EU. None of those represent a clean Brexit.nichomar said:
What is a clean brexit? My ballot paper said leave/remain just because Clegg thinks something different to you makes niether of you right/wrong.MarqueeMark said:
Clegg is one of that group of politicians that seems to have no comprehension of how a failure to deliver a clean Brexit would lead to a catastrophic loss of confidence in our political class. It would be the expenses scandal cubed.Big_G_NorthWales said:Nick Clegg on Marr - We should rejoin the outer orbit of the EU - what is he on!!!
You've been instructed by the electorate. Do it. OK, the likes of Clegg made it their life's work to ensure by silence, subterfuge, skulduggery, that it WAS impossible to exit the EU. But they have to be shown to be wrong, or our democracy is shown to be worthless.
If there is one lesson to learn from recent political events, it is "Don't try to get cute with the voters. They will hand you your ass...."0 -
Haha Who do you think the voters will blame when it all goes tits-up - themselves? or the government?MarqueeMark said:
The voters?not_on_fire said:
Referendum: Tory policyIshmael_Z said:
"own" = weaselspeak for "I want to say 'are responsible for' but I know that is not true".foxinsoxuk said:
Indeed the Governments position is a carbon copy of what Labour proposed in the summer.DecrepitJohnL said:
Labour's "complete mess" is arguably a more settled position than the government's, which is the one we are trying to implement.MarqueeMark said:
Labour are in a complete mess on the EU. Risible. And the rest of their policies are quickly catching up.... Tories need to settle down, get on with delivering Brexit - and let the inevitable cataclysm at the heart of Labour run its natural course.Big_G_NorthWales said:Corbyn on Marr rejecting membership of the single market on grounds of state aid and nationalisation
Labour are fine on this. Tories own the Brexit shambles.
Triggering A50: Tory policy
Negotiations with EU: Tory policy.
Who is responsible, if not them?0 -
The collapse in Lib Dem support in the South West has been startling.MarqueeMark said:
The political imperative does. The LibDems tried to deny that in the June election. Here in the South-West, the Tory majority over the Lib Dems in Torbay went from 3,200 to 14,200....not_on_fire said:
The referendum vote was for Brexit. It didn’t require it to be “clean”, whatever that means.MarqueeMark said:
Clegg would have no problem with EU law retaining primacy. Clegg would have no problem with such EU laws deciding who can and cannot come to the UK - and on what terms. Clegg would have no problems with continuing payments to the EU. None of those represent a clean Brexit.nichomar said:
What is a clean brexit? My ballot paper said leave/remain just because Clegg thinks something different to you makes niether of you right/wrong.MarqueeMark said:
Clegg is one of that group of politicians that seems to have no comprehension of how a failure to deliver a clean Brexit would lead to a catastrophic loss of confidence in our political class. It would be the expenses scandal cubed.Big_G_NorthWales said:Nick Clegg on Marr - We should rejoin the outer orbit of the EU - what is he on!!!
You've been instructed by the electorate. Do it. OK, the likes of Clegg made it their life's work to ensure by silence, subterfuge, skulduggery, that it WAS impossible to exit the EU. But they have to be shown to be wrong, or our democracy is shown to be worthless.
If there is one lesson to learn from recent political events, it is "Don't try to get cute with the voters. They will hand you your ass...."0 -
Indeed, the key on that was last week's Mori. While Corbyn has a favourability rating 8% below Labour's, May's favourability rating is exactly the same as the ToriesSouthamObserver said:The big takeaway from recent events is that despite forming what is undoubtedly the most incompetent government in modern British political history the Tories are a good bet to win most seats at the next general election.
Oh, Jeremy Corbyn ...
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/category/mori0 -
You missed out the EUBenpointer said:
Haha Who do you think the voters will blame when it all goes tits-up - themselves? or the government?MarqueeMark said:
The voters?not_on_fire said:
Referendum: Tory policyIshmael_Z said:
"own" = weaselspeak for "I want to say 'are responsible for' but I know that is not true".foxinsoxuk said:
Indeed the Governments position is a carbon copy of what Labour proposed in the summer.DecrepitJohnL said:
Labour's "complete mess" is arguably a more settled position than the government's, which is the one we are trying to implement.MarqueeMark said:
Labour are in a complete mess on the EU. Risible. And the rest of their policies are quickly catching up.... Tories need to settle down, get on with delivering Brexit - and let the inevitable cataclysm at the heart of Labour run its natural course.Big_G_NorthWales said:Corbyn on Marr rejecting membership of the single market on grounds of state aid and nationalisation
Labour are fine on this. Tories own the Brexit shambles.
Triggering A50: Tory policy
Negotiations with EU: Tory policy.
Who is responsible, if not them?0 -
The problem will be after we leave, in whatever manner unless something is done about immigration from outside the EU a significant part of the population will still be unhappy. Their problems relate to cultural integration and the belief they are being swamped and over run. I think that plays more significanty to many people than EU migrants.FF43 said:
Theresa May is not exactly "doing it". She has given the can a firm whack with her elegantly shod foot. That's precisely because "clean Brexit" is impossible in practical terms. It's all about how you deal with the mess, or don't deal with it.MarqueeMark said:
Clegg is one of that group of politicians that seems to have no comprehension of how a failure to deliver a clean Brexit would lead to a catastrophic loss of confidence in our political class. It would be the expenses scandal cubed.Big_G_NorthWales said:Nick Clegg on Marr - We should rejoin the outer orbit of the EU - what is he on!!!
You've been instructed by the electorate. Do it. OK, the likes of Clegg made it their life's work to ensure by silence, subterfuge, skulduggery, that it WAS impossible to exit the EU. But they have to be shown to be wrong, or our democracy is shown to be worthless.0 -
Good point Big G... The EU could cop the blame, I agree. And no doubt the Tories, DM, Telegraph, Express, Sun etc. will push that line. However, I think the govt is most likely to be blamed. It will be interesting to see how it plays out.Big_G_NorthWales said:
You missed out the EUBenpointer said:
Haha Who do you think the voters will blame when it all goes tits-up - themselves? or the government?MarqueeMark said:
The voters?not_on_fire said:
Referendum: Tory policyIshmael_Z said:
"own" = weaselspeak for "I want to say 'are responsible for' but I know that is not true".foxinsoxuk said:
Indeed the Governments position is a carbon copy of what Labour proposed in the summer.DecrepitJohnL said:
Labour's "complete mess" is arguably a more settled position than the government's, which is the one we are trying to implement.MarqueeMark said:
Labour are in a complete mess on the EU. Risible. And the rest of their policies are quickly catching up.... Tories need to settle down, get on with delivering Brexit - and let the inevitable cataclysm at the heart of Labour run its natural course.Big_G_NorthWales said:Corbyn on Marr rejecting membership of the single market on grounds of state aid and nationalisation
Labour are fine on this. Tories own the Brexit shambles.
Triggering A50: Tory policy
Negotiations with EU: Tory policy.
Who is responsible, if not them?
Personally, I am still hoping that either commonsense prevails or I have misjudged it, and it turns out ok for the UK.0 -
+1Big_G_NorthWales said:
You missed out the EUBenpointer said:
Haha Who do you think the voters will blame when it all goes tits-up - themselves? or the government?MarqueeMark said:
The voters?not_on_fire said:
Referendum: Tory policyIshmael_Z said:
"own" = weaselspeak for "I want to say 'are responsible for' but I know that is not true".foxinsoxuk said:
Indeed the Governments position is a carbon copy of what Labour proposed in the summer.DecrepitJohnL said:
Labour's "complete mess" is arguably a more settled position than the government's, which is the one we are trying to implement.MarqueeMark said:
Labour are in a complete mess on the EU. Risible. And the rest of their policies are quickly catching up.... Tories need to settle down, get on with delivering Brexit - and let the inevitable cataclysm at the heart of Labour run its natural course.Big_G_NorthWales said:Corbyn on Marr rejecting membership of the single market on grounds of state aid and nationalisation
Labour are fine on this. Tories own the Brexit shambles.
Triggering A50: Tory policy
Negotiations with EU: Tory policy.
Who is responsible, if not them?0 -
Their... haggis?malcolmg said:
You could say it better , " they want their and they want to eat it", it will never happen.DavidL said:
Stripping out the spin it is undoubtedly true that what the UK wants is unrestricted access to the single market with freedom of movement being at the UK's discretion. It seems to be an entirely sensible objective. Whether it is achievable remains to be seen.williamglenn said:A theory: the cabinet Brexit committee's real goal has always been to renegotiate membership of the single market without free movement of people.
- The tried prenegotiation but that didn't work. The assumed this was because the EU didn't think they would go through with leaving.
- They announced we would leave the single market. This didn't have the shock effect they were hoping for. Instead the EU welcomed the apparent clarity of the position.
- Hoping we could still shock the EU into submission we invoked Article 50, but instead of a generous offer we got a watertight set of negotiating guidelines that gave us no room for manoeuvre.
- Panic sets in, and they decide that they need a massive majority to force the EU to take them seriously. May calls the election expecting this to happen.
They completely misjudged the strategic from start to finish and now don't how to get out of the mess.
0 -
I agree with you. We are in very troubled waters with the parties divided and the Country too.Benpointer said:
Good point Big G... The EU could cop the blame, I agree. And no doubt the Tories, DM, Telegraph, Express, Sun etc. will push that line. However, I think the govt is most likely to be blamed. It will be interesting to see how it plays out.Big_G_NorthWales said:
You missed out the EUBenpointer said:
Haha Who do you think the voters will blame when it all goes tits-up - themselves? or the government?MarqueeMark said:
The voters?not_on_fire said:
Referendum: Tory policyIshmael_Z said:
"own" = weaselspeak for "I want to say 'are responsible for' but I know that is not true".foxinsoxuk said:
Indeed the Governments position is a carbon copy of what Labour proposed in the summer.DecrepitJohnL said:
Labour's "complete mess" is arguably a more settled position than the government's, which is the one we are trying to implement.MarqueeMark said:
Labour are in a complete mess on the EU. Risible. And the rest of their policies are quickly catching up.... Tories need to settle down, get on with delivering Brexit - and let the inevitable cataclysm at the heart of Labour run its natural course.Big_G_NorthWales said:Corbyn on Marr rejecting membership of the single market on grounds of state aid and nationalisation
Labour are fine on this. Tories own the Brexit shambles.
Triggering A50: Tory policy
Negotiations with EU: Tory policy.
Who is responsible, if not them?
Personally, I am still hoping that either commonsense prevails or I have misjudged it, and it turns out ok for the UK.
The one thing that really worries me is that if we, somehow, were forced to stay in the EU, a large part of the Country would feel cheated and furious with the politicians. Better to leave with all the problems and as the old round table motto says
'adopt, adapt and improve'0 -
At this rate there may well be a general election in 2019/20 when we are still in the EU in all but name anywayBenpointer said:
Haha Who do you think the voters will blame when it all goes tits-up - themselves? or the government?MarqueeMark said:
The voters?not_on_fire said:
Referendum: Tory policyIshmael_Z said:
"own" = weaselspeak for "I want to say 'are responsible for' but I know that is not true".foxinsoxuk said:
Indeed the Governments position is a carbon copy of what Labour proposed in the summer.DecrepitJohnL said:
Labour's "complete mess" is arguably a more settled position than the government's, which is the one we are trying to implement.MarqueeMark said:
Labour are in a complete mess on the EU. Risible. And the rest of their policies are quickly catching up.... Tories need to settle down, get on with delivering Brexit - and let the inevitable cataclysm at the heart of Labour run its natural course.Big_G_NorthWales said:Corbyn on Marr rejecting membership of the single market on grounds of state aid and nationalisation
Labour are fine on this. Tories own the Brexit shambles.
Triggering A50: Tory policy
Negotiations with EU: Tory policy.
Who is responsible, if not them?0 -
Yes that's a great point. If the Tories had been serious about controlling immigration they could have cut the numbers in half at any time, regardless of the EU.nichomar said:
The problem will be after we leave, in whatever manner unless something is done about immigration from outside the EU a significant part of the population will still be unhappy. Their problems relate to cultural integration and the belief they are being swamped and over run. I think that plays more significanty to many people than EU migrants.FF43 said:
Theresa May is not exactly "doing it". She has given the can a firm whack with her elegantly shod foot. That's precisely because "clean Brexit" is impossible in practical terms. It's all about how you deal with the mess, or don't deal with it.MarqueeMark said:
Clegg is one of that group of politicians that seems to have no comprehension of how a failure to deliver a clean Brexit would lead to a catastrophic loss of confidence in our political class. It would be the expenses scandal cubed.Big_G_NorthWales said:Nick Clegg on Marr - We should rejoin the outer orbit of the EU - what is he on!!!
You've been instructed by the electorate. Do it. OK, the likes of Clegg made it their life's work to ensure by silence, subterfuge, skulduggery, that it WAS impossible to exit the EU. But they have to be shown to be wrong, or our democracy is shown to be worthless.0 -
I think they are in big trouble - Labour is in second place in many seats, and UKIP had been before that, even a LD barchart will struggle to say 'Only the LDs can beat the Tories' in swathes of seats in the next election, and good second places provide the groundwork for wins eventually, not all places can be Bath and Oxford.Sean_F said:
The collapse in Lib Dem support in the South West has been startling.MarqueeMark said:
The political imperative does. The LibDems tried to deny that in the June election. Here in the South-West, the Tory majority over the Lib Dems in Torbay went from 3,200 to 14,200....not_on_fire said:
The referendum vote was for Brexit. It didn’t require it to be “clean”, whatever that means.MarqueeMark said:
Clegg would have no problem with EU law retaining primacy. Clegg would have no problem with such EU laws deciding who can and cannot come to the UK - and on what terms. Clegg would have no problems with continuing payments to the EU. None of those represent a clean Brexit.nichomar said:
What is a clean brexit? My ballot paper said leave/remain just because Clegg thinks something different to you makes niether of you right/wrong.MarqueeMark said:
Clegg is one of that group of politicians that seems to have no comprehension of how a failure to deliver a clean Brexit would lead to a catastrophic loss of confidence in our political class. It would be the expenses scandal cubed.Big_G_NorthWales said:Nick Clegg on Marr - We should rejoin the outer orbit of the EU - what is he on!!!
You've been instructed by the electorate. Do it. OK, the likes of Clegg made it their life's work to ensure by silence, subterfuge, skulduggery, that it WAS impossible to exit the EU. But they have to be shown to be wrong, or our democracy is shown to be worthless.
If there is one lesson to learn from recent political events, it is "Don't try to get cute with the voters. They will hand you your ass...."0 -
To some extent, but it won't be universal, and carrying out the referendum will in some fashion, which was supported by both parties, won't save the Tories I think, as outside an incontestable success - which is improbable as near anything can be argued and it was always going to be messy - they will cop the most blame.Big_G_NorthWales said:
You missed out the EUBenpointer said:
Haha Who do you think the voters will blame when it all goes tits-up - themselves? or the government?MarqueeMark said:
The voters?not_on_fire said:
Referendum: Tory policyIshmael_Z said:
"own" = weaselspeak for "I want to say 'are responsible for' but I know that is not true".foxinsoxuk said:
Indeed the Governments position is a carbon copy of what Labour proposed in the summer.DecrepitJohnL said:
Labour's "complete mess" is arguably a more settled position than the government's, which is the one we are trying to implement.MarqueeMark said:
Labour are in a complete mess on the EU. Risible. And the rest of their policies are quickly catching up.... Tories need to settle down, get on with delivering Brexit - and let the inevitable cataclysm at the heart of Labour run its natural course.Big_G_NorthWales said:Corbyn on Marr rejecting membership of the single market on grounds of state aid and nationalisation
Labour are fine on this. Tories own the Brexit shambles.
Triggering A50: Tory policy
Negotiations with EU: Tory policy.
Who is responsible, if not them?0 -
Always a sign the day is going to be good.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. kle4, speaking of fudge, I've just been given two small boxes. Huzzah!
0 -
And if it is popular and a success ????kle4 said:
To some extent, but it won't be universal, and carrying out the referendum will in some fashion, which was supported by both parties, won't save the Tories I think, as outside an incontestable success - which is improbable as near anything can be argued and it was always going to be messy - they will cop the most blame.Big_G_NorthWales said:
You missed out the EUBenpointer said:
Haha Who do you think the voters will blame when it all goes tits-up - themselves? or the government?MarqueeMark said:
The voters?not_on_fire said:
Referendum: Tory policyIshmael_Z said:
"own" = weaselspeak for "I want to say 'are responsible for' but I know that is not true".foxinsoxuk said:
Indeed the Governments position is a carbon copy of what Labour proposed in the summer.DecrepitJohnL said:
Labour's "complete mess" is arguably a more settled position than the government's, which is the one we are trying to implement.MarqueeMark said:
Labour are in a complete mess on the EU. Risible. And the rest of their policies are quickly catching up.... Tories need to settle down, get on with delivering Brexit - and let the inevitable cataclysm at the heart of Labour run its natural course.Big_G_NorthWales said:Corbyn on Marr rejecting membership of the single market on grounds of state aid and nationalisation
Labour are fine on this. Tories own the Brexit shambles.
Triggering A50: Tory policy
Negotiations with EU: Tory policy.
Who is responsible, if not them?0 -
I'll eat Ashdowns hatBig_G_NorthWales said:
And if it is popular and a success ????kle4 said:
To some extent, but it won't be universal, and carrying out the referendum will in some fashion, which was supported by both parties, won't save the Tories I think, as outside an incontestable success - which is improbable as near anything can be argued and it was always going to be messy - they will cop the most blame.Big_G_NorthWales said:
You missed out the EUBenpointer said:
Haha Who do you think the voters will blame when it all goes tits-up - themselves? or the government?MarqueeMark said:
The voters?not_on_fire said:
Referendum: Tory policyIshmael_Z said:
"own" = weaselspeak for "I want to say 'are responsible for' but I know that is not true".foxinsoxuk said:
Indeed the Governments position is a carbon copy of what Labour proposed in the summer.DecrepitJohnL said:
Labour's "complete mess" is arguably a more settled position than the government's, which is the one we are trying to implement.MarqueeMark said:
Labour are in a complete mess on the EU. Risible. And the rest of their policies are quickly catching up.... Tories need to settle down, get on with delivering Brexit - and let the inevitable cataclysm at the heart of Labour run its natural course.Big_G_NorthWales said:Corbyn on Marr rejecting membership of the single market on grounds of state aid and nationalisation
Labour are fine on this. Tories own the Brexit shambles.
Triggering A50: Tory policy
Negotiations with EU: Tory policy.
Who is responsible, if not them?0 -
The general lack of LD second places (and absurd distance behind 1st some of those have, see Manc Withington for example) is a huge risk to the LDs. 12 MPs is better than 8, but the truth is the party is further from 20 or 30 MPs than it was in 2015. And nearer 0, in some respects.kle4 said:
I think they are in big trouble - Labour is in second place in many seats, and UKIP had been before that, even a LD barchart will struggle to say 'Only the LDs can beat the Tories' in swathes of seats in the next election, and good second places provide the groundwork for wins eventually, not all places can be Bath and Oxford.Sean_F said:
The collapse in Lib Dem support in the South West has been startling.MarqueeMark said:
The political imperative does. The LibDems tried to deny that in the June election. Here in the South-West, the Tory majority over the Lib Dems in Torbay went from 3,200 to 14,200....not_on_fire said:
The referendum vote was for Brexit. It didn’t require it to be “clean”, whatever that means.MarqueeMark said:
Clegg would have no problem with EU law retaining primacy. Clegg would have no problem with such EU laws deciding who can and cannot come to the UK - and on what terms. Clegg would have no problems with continuing payments to the EU. None of those represent a clean Brexit.nichomar said:
What is a clean brexit? My ballot paper said leave/remain just because Clegg thinks something different to you makes niether of you right/wrong.MarqueeMark said:
Clegg is one of that group of politicians that seems to have no comprehension of how a failure to deliver a clean Brexit would lead to a catastrophic loss of confidence in our political class. It would be the expenses scandal cubed.Big_G_NorthWales said:Nick Clegg on Marr - We should rejoin the outer orbit of the EU - what is he on!!!
You've been instructed by the electorate. Do it. OK, the likes of Clegg made it their life's work to ensure by silence, subterfuge, skulduggery, that it WAS impossible to exit the EU. But they have to be shown to be wrong, or our democracy is shown to be worthless.
If there is one lesson to learn from recent political events, it is "Don't try to get cute with the voters. They will hand you your ass...."
On the other hand the LDs are mostly holding onto our 7-8% of the vote which, given the tightest two-party squeeze since the 70s, isn't too disappointing. If there was an election today the Greens and UKIP would be lucky to get ~5% combined, after 16% in 2015. So things could be even worse.0 -
He's already eaten it !!!!nichomar said:
I'll eat Ashdowns hatBig_G_NorthWales said:
And if it is popular and a success ????kle4 said:
To some extent, but it won't be universal, and carrying out the referendum will in some fashion, which was supported by both parties, won't save the Tories I think, as outside an incontestable success - which is improbable as near anything can be argued and it was always going to be messy - they will cop the most blame.Big_G_NorthWales said:
You missed out the EUBenpointer said:
Haha Who do you think the voters will blame when it all goes tits-up - themselves? or the government?MarqueeMark said:
The voters?not_on_fire said:
Referendum: Tory policyIshmael_Z said:
"own" = weaselspeak for "I want to say 'are responsible for' but I know that is not true".foxinsoxuk said:
Indeed the Governments position is a carbon copy of what Labour proposed in the summer.DecrepitJohnL said:
Labour's "complete mess" is arguably a more settled position than the government's, which is the one we are trying to implement.MarqueeMark said:
Labour are in a complete mess on the EU. Risible. And the rest of their policies are quickly catching up.... Tories need to settle down, get on with delivering Brexit - and let the inevitable cataclysm at the heart of Labour run its natural course.Big_G_NorthWales said:Corbyn on Marr rejecting membership of the single market on grounds of state aid and nationalisation
Labour are fine on this. Tories own the Brexit shambles.
Triggering A50: Tory policy
Negotiations with EU: Tory policy.
Who is responsible, if not them?0 -
HYUFD is basking in the success of his Scotch insight that Kezia would be next First Minister.malcolmg said:
Touch of insecurity there methinks.HYUFD said:
Well both have more than the post Sturgeon SNP willmalcolmg said:
Dear God, they make Labour look full of talent.HYUFD said:
Tom Tugendhadt, Rory Stewart, Jonny Mercer all potential successors to May if she promotes them to CabinetPClipp said:Reading through TSE`s introduction, it seems the country had a narrow escape. Any one of the three would have been a disaster. Talk about frying pans and fires! At least Mrs May is an extinct volcano.
Isn`t there anybody at least half good in the Conservative Party?0 -
St. Ives is ultra-marginal, and they have more distant chances in North Cornwall, North Devon, and Cheltenham, but that's it.kle4 said:
I think they are in big trouble - Labour is in second place in many seats, and UKIP had been before that, even a LD barchart will struggle to say 'Only the LDs can beat the Tories' in swathes of seats in the next election, and good second places provide the groundwork for wins eventually, not all places can be Bath and Oxford.Sean_F said:
The collapse in Lib Dem support in the South West has been startling.MarqueeMark said:
The political imperative does. The LibDems tried to deny that in the June election. Here in the South-West, the Tory majority over the Lib Dems in Torbay went from 3,200 to 14,200....not_on_fire said:
The referendum vote was for Brexit. It didn’t require it to be “clean”, whatever that means.MarqueeMark said:
Clegg would have no problem with EU law retaining primacy. Clegg would have no problem with such EU laws deciding who can and cannot come to the UK - and on what terms. Clegg would have no problems with continuing payments to the EU. None of those represent a clean Brexit.nichomar said:
What is a clean brexit? My ballot paper said leave/remain just because Clegg thinks something different to you makes niether of you right/wrong.MarqueeMark said:
Clegg is one of that group of politicians that seems to have no comprehension of how a failure to deliver a clean Brexit would lead to a catastrophic loss of confidence in our political class. It would be the expenses scandal cubed.Big_G_NorthWales said:Nick Clegg on Marr - We should rejoin the outer orbit of the EU - what is he on!!!
You've been instructed by the electorate. Do it. OK, the likes of Clegg made it their life's work to ensure by silence, subterfuge, skulduggery, that it WAS impossible to exit the EU. But they have to be shown to be wrong, or our democracy is shown to be worthless.
If there is one lesson to learn from recent political events, it is "Don't try to get cute with the voters. They will hand you your ass...."
Seats like Camborne, West Devon, Torbay, Newto Abbott, Mid Dorset, Somerton, Taunton, Yeovil are out of reach.0 -
Sadly (cos it's not what I personally want), I agree we have to leave the EU but as we know there are many shades of leave - I just hope it's not a crash out as I think that would damage the country immensely, both economically and in terms of cohesion.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I agree with you. We are in very troubled waters with the parties divided and the Country too.Benpointer said:
Good point Big G... The EU could cop the blame, I agree. And no doubt the Tories, DM, Telegraph, Express, Sun etc. will push that line. However, I think the govt is most likely to be blamed. It will be interesting to see how it plays out.Big_G_NorthWales said:
You missed out the EUBenpointer said:
Haha Who do you think the voters will blame when it all goes tits-up - themselves? or the government?MarqueeMark said:
The voters?not_on_fire said:
Referendum: Tory policyIshmael_Z said:
"own" = weaselspeak for "I want to say 'are responsible for' but I know that is not true".foxinsoxuk said:
Indeed the Governments position is a carbon copy of what Labour proposed in the summer.DecrepitJohnL said:
Labour's "complete mess" is arguably a more settled position than the government's, which is the one we are trying to implement.MarqueeMark said:Big_G_NorthWales said:Corbyn on Marr rejecting membership of the single market on grounds of state aid and nationalisation
Labour are fine on this. Tories own the Brexit shambles.
Triggering A50: Tory policy
Negotiations with EU: Tory policy.
Who is responsible, if not them?
Personally, I am still hoping that either commonsense prevails or I have misjudged it, and it turns out ok for the UK.
The one thing that really worries me is that if we, somehow, were forced to stay in the EU, a large part of the Country would feel cheated and furious with the politicians. Better to leave with all the problems and as the old round table motto says
'adopt, adapt and improve'
I sense there's an 80% consensus that we have to leave but let's still have a good relationship with the EU, and if that means paying a bit and aligning some rules so be it. That's got to be the best option right now.
I suspect <10% at each end either still clinging on to Remain (overturn the ref) or Hard Brexit. Could be wishful thinking on my part though - I wonder if there have been any surveys recently?0 -
I said incontestable success as the barrier by which they won't suffer to some degree - plenty of Tories backed remain and the rest are divided to various degrees on the best approach, and so whatever option they come up with I think standing still is the best they can hope for unless Labour's contradictions come to the fore. Even the most popular and successful Brexit will be messy and complicated, such a huge endeavour demands it, and that will hinder how much kudos the Tories get, even if they deserve it.Big_G_NorthWales said:
And if it is popular and a success ????kle4 said:
To some extent, but it won't be universal, and carrying out the referendum will in some fashion, which was supported by both parties, won't save the Tories I think, as outside an incontestable success - which is improbable as near anything can be argued and it was always going to be messy - they will cop the most blame.Big_G_NorthWales said:
You missed out the EUBenpointer said:
Haha Who do you think the voters will blame when it all goes tits-up - themselves? or the government?MarqueeMark said:
The voters?not_on_fire said:
Referendum: Tory policyIshmael_Z said:
"own" = weaselspeak for "I want to say 'are responsible for' but I know that is not true".foxinsoxuk said:
Indeed the Governments position is a carbon copy of what Labour proposed in the summer.DecrepitJohnL said:
Labour's "complete mess" is arguably a more settled position than the government's, which is the one we are trying to implement.MarqueeMark said:
Labour are in a complete mess on the EU. Risible. And the rest of their policies are quickly catching up.... Tories need to settle down, get on with delivering Brexit - and let the inevitable cataclysm at the heart of Labour run its natural course.Big_G_NorthWales said:Corbyn on Marr rejecting membership of the single market on grounds of state aid and nationalisation
Labour are fine on this. Tories own the Brexit shambles.
Triggering A50: Tory policy
Negotiations with EU: Tory policy.
Who is responsible, if not them?0 -
No we could not!Benpointer said:
Yes that's a great point. If the Tories had been serious about controlling immigration they could have cut the numbers in half at any time, regardless of the EU.nichomar said:
The problem will be after we leave, in whatever manner unless something is done about immigration from outside the EU a significant part of the population will still be unhappy. Their problems relate to cultural integration and the belief they are being swamped and over run. I think that plays more significanty to many people than EU migrants.FF43 said:
Theresa May is not exactly "doing it". She has given the can a firm whack with her elegantly shod foot. That's precisely because "clean Brexit" is impossible in practical terms. It's all about how you deal with the mess, or don't deal with it.MarqueeMark said:
Clegg is one of that group of politicians that seems to have no comprehension of how a failure to deliver a clean Brexit would lead to a catastrophic loss of confidence in our political class. It would be the expenses scandal cubed.Big_G_NorthWales said:Nick Clegg on Marr - We should rejoin the outer orbit of the EU - what is he on!!!
You've been instructed by the electorate. Do it. OK, the likes of Clegg made it their life's work to ensure by silence, subterfuge, skulduggery, that it WAS impossible to exit the EU. But they have to be shown to be wrong, or our democracy is shown to be worthless.
What you are proposing could have been done is a complete and total ban on immigration from 93% of the world's population.0 -
But they didn't propose the referendum.kle4 said:
Labour's position has still been confused and contradictory at times, it is a shambles - they are simply fortunate to not be in government with a slim (now non-existent) majority, so they will not be punished for their own shambolic take on things.foxinsoxuk said:
Indeed the Governments position is a carbon copy of what Labour proposed in the summer.DecrepitJohnL said:
Labour's "complete mess" is arguably a more settled position than the government's, which is the one we are trying to implement.MarqueeMark said:
Labour are in a complete mess on the EU. Risible. And the rest of their policies are quickly catching up.... Tories need to settle down, get on with delivering Brexit - and let the inevitable cataclysm at the heart of Labour run its natural course.Big_G_NorthWales said:Corbyn on Marr rejecting membership of the single market on grounds of state aid and nationalisation
Labour are fine on this. Tories own the Brexit shambles.0 -
Decent results in a couple of by elections this weekSean_F said:
St. Ives is ultra-marginal, and they have more distant chances in North Cornwall, North Devon, and Cheltenham, but that's it.kle4 said:
I think they are in big trouble - Labour is in second place in many seats, and UKIP had been before that, even a LD barchart will struggle to say 'Only the LDs can beat the Tories' in swathes of seats in the next election, and good second places provide the groundwork for wins eventually, not all places can be Bath and Oxford.Sean_F said:
The collapse in Lib Dem support in the South West has been startling.MarqueeMark said:
The political imperative does. The LibDems tried to deny that in the June election. Here in the South-West, the Tory majority over the Lib Dems in Torbay went from 3,200 to 14,200....not_on_fire said:
The referendum vote was for Brexit. It didn’t require it to be “clean”, whatever that means.MarqueeMark said:
Clegg would have no problem with EU law retaining primacy. Clegg would have no problem with such EU laws deciding who can and cannot come to the UK - and on what terms. Clegg would have no problems with continuing payments to the EU. None of those represent a clean Brexit.nichomar said:
What is a clean brexit? My ballot paper said leave/remain just because Clegg thinks something different to you makes niether of you right/wrong.MarqueeMark said:
Clegg is one of that group of politicians that seems to have no comprehension of how a failure to deliver a clean Brexit would lead to a catastrophic loss of confidence in our political class. It would be the expenses scandal cubed.Big_G_NorthWales said:Nick Clegg on Marr - We should rejoin the outer orbit of the EU - what is he on!!!
You've been instructed by the electorate. Do it. OK, the likes of Clegg made it their life's work to ensure by silence, subterfuge, skulduggery, that it WAS impossible to exit the EU. But they have to be shown to be wrong, or our democracy is shown to be worthless.
If there is one lesson to learn from recent political events, it is "Don't try to get cute with the voters. They will hand you your ass...."
Seats like Camborne, West Devon, Torbay, Newto Abbott, Mid Dorset, Somerton, Taunton, Yeovil are out of reach.
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2017/09/22/the-political-betting-local-by-election-conference-bounce-index-week-one/
Caveats about LDs in by elections, obv.0 -
Only hat-shaped cake! Typical cop-out from a politician.....Big_G_NorthWales said:
He's already eaten it !!!!nichomar said:
I'll eat Ashdowns hatBig_G_NorthWales said:
And if it is popular and a success ????kle4 said:
To some extent, but it won't be universal, and carrying out the referendum will in some fashion, which was supported by both parties, won't save the Tories I think, as outside an incontestable success - which is improbable as near anything can be argued and it was always going to be messy - they will cop the most blame.Big_G_NorthWales said:
You missed out the EUBenpointer said:
Haha Who do you think the voters will blame when it all goes tits-up - themselves? or the government?MarqueeMark said:
The voters?not_on_fire said:
Referendum: Tory policyIshmael_Z said:
"own" = weaselspeak for "I want to say 'are responsible for' but I know that is not true".foxinsoxuk said:
Indeed the Governments position is a carbon copy of what Labour proposed in the summer.DecrepitJohnL said:
Labour's "complete mess" is arguably a more settled position than the government's, which is the one we are trying to implement.MarqueeMark said:
Labour are in a complete mess on the EU. Risible. And the rest of their policies are quickly catching up.... Tories need to settle down, get on with delivering Brexit - and let the inevitable cataclysm at the heart of Labour run its natural course.Big_G_NorthWales said:Corbyn on Marr rejecting membership of the single market on grounds of state aid and nationalisation
Labour are fine on this. Tories own the Brexit shambles.
Triggering A50: Tory policy
Negotiations with EU: Tory policy.
Who is responsible, if not them?
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/general-election-2015/11594442/General-election-2015-Paddy-Ashdown-eats-hat-following-Conservative-win.html
0 -
Well it was her decision to stand down for personal reasons, ironically in part because she was in a relationship with an SNP MSPTheuniondivvie said:
HYUFD is basking in the success of his Scotch insight that Kezia would be next First Minister.malcolmg said:
Touch of insecurity there methinks.HYUFD said:
Well both have more than the post Sturgeon SNP willmalcolmg said:
Dear God, they make Labour look full of talent.HYUFD said:
Tom Tugendhadt, Rory Stewart, Jonny Mercer all potential successors to May if she promotes them to CabinetPClipp said:Reading through TSE`s introduction, it seems the country had a narrow escape. Any one of the three would have been a disaster. Talk about frying pans and fires! At least Mrs May is an extinct volcano.
Isn`t there anybody at least half good in the Conservative Party?
0 -
Indeed. That's because there are no good solutions. It's not just a Conservative Party issue, although it will affect them the most. We have three options: membership of the EU, which is best in practical terms, leaving aside ideology or philosophy. But that option is the only one to be formally rejected. There's Single Market that allows us to keep most of what we have, but takes away our influence over the decisions. As the only point of Brexit is to get control, that doesn't compute. Finally there's a limited trade deal, but that's a very costly and long drawn out process to end up with much less than what we had before, albeit with more control, if less influence. Given the referendum was carried on the tiniest of margins on the premise that there would be no real cost to Brexit and no consensus for Brexit of any kind building since then, there simply isn't a will or mandate for that kind of pain.Sean_F said:
Labour's position changes by the day, not that that matters if one is in Opposition.DecrepitJohnL said:
Labour's "complete mess" is arguably a more settled position than the government's, which is the one we are trying to implement.MarqueeMark said:
Labour are in a complete mess on the EU. Risible. And the rest of their policies are quickly catching up.... Tories need to settle down, get on with delivering Brexit - and let the inevitable cataclysm at the heart of Labour run its natural course.Big_G_NorthWales said:Corbyn on Marr rejecting membership of the single market on grounds of state aid and nationalisation
All the options are bad, but all are possible. I would rank the eventual probabilities as 1) Norway; 2) Canada; 3) EU membership.0 -
Yes I did misread your comment somewhat but I have no idea who will benefit or otherwise at the end of this process and whenever that may bekle4 said:
I said incontestable success as the barrier by which they won't suffer to some degree - plenty of Tories backed remain and the rest are divided to various degrees on the best approach, and so whatever option they come up with I think standing still is the best they can hope for unless Labour's contradictions come to the fore. Even the most popular and successful Brexit will be messy and complicated, such a huge endeavour demands it, and that will hinder how much kudos the Tories get, even if they deserve it.Big_G_NorthWales said:
And if it is popular and a success ????kle4 said:
To some extent, but it won't be universal, and carrying out the referendum will in some fashion, which was supported by both parties, won't save the Tories I think, as outside an incontestable success - which is improbable as near anything can be argued and it was always going to be messy - they will cop the most blame.Big_G_NorthWales said:
You missed out the EUBenpointer said:
Haha Who do you think the voters will blame when it all goes tits-up - themselves? or the government?MarqueeMark said:
The voters?not_on_fire said:
Referendum: Tory policyIshmael_Z said:
"own" = weaselspeak for "I want to say 'are responsible for' but I know that is not true".foxinsoxuk said:
Indeed the Governments position is a carbon copy of what Labour proposed in the summer.DecrepitJohnL said:
Labour's "complete mess" is arguably a more settled position than the government's, which is the one we are trying to implement.MarqueeMark said:
Labour are in a complete mess on the EU. Risible. And the rest of their policies are quickly catching up.... Tories need to settle down, get on with delivering Brexit - and let the inevitable cataclysm at the heart of Labour run its natural course.Big_G_NorthWales said:Corbyn on Marr rejecting membership of the single market on grounds of state aid and nationalisation
Labour are fine on this. Tories own the Brexit shambles.
Triggering A50: Tory policy
Negotiations with EU: Tory policy.
Who is responsible, if not them?0 -
The LibDems had a great run of by-election successes before the 2015 General Election....Ishmael_Z said:
Decent results in a couple of by elections this weekSean_F said:
St. Ives is ultra-marginal, and they have more distant chances in North Cornwall, North Devon, and Cheltenham, but that's it.kle4 said:
I think they are in big trouble - Labour is in second place in many seats, and UKIP had been before that, even a LD barchart will struggle to say 'Only the LDs can beat the Tories' in swathes of seats in the next election, and good second places provide the groundwork for wins eventually, not all places can be Bath and Oxford.Sean_F said:
The collapse in Lib Dem support in the South West has been startling.MarqueeMark said:
The political imperative does. The LibDems tried to deny that in the June election. Here in the South-West, the Tory majority over the Lib Dems in Torbay went from 3,200 to 14,200....not_on_fire said:
The referendum vote was for Brexit. It didn’t require it to be “clean”, whatever that means.MarqueeMark said:
Clegg would have no problem with EU law retaining primacy. Clegg would have no problem with such EU laws deciding who can and cannot come to the UK - and on what terms. Clegg would have no problems with continuing payments to the EU. None of those represent a clean Brexit.nichomar said:
What is a clean brexit? My ballot paper said leave/remain just because Clegg thinks something different to you makes niether of you right/wrong.MarqueeMark said:
Clegg is one of that group of politicians that seems to have no comprehension of how a failure to deliver a clean Brexit would lead to a catastrophic loss of confidence in our political class. It would be the expenses scandal cubed.Big_G_NorthWales said:Nick Clegg on Marr - We should rejoin the outer orbit of the EU - what is he on!!!
You've been instructed by the electorate. Do it. OK, the likes of Clegg made it their life's work to ensure by silence, subterfuge, skulduggery, that it WAS impossible to exit the EU. But they have to be shown to be wrong, or our democracy is shown to be worthless.
If there is one lesson to learn from recent political events, it is "Don't try to get cute with the voters. They will hand you your ass...."
Seats like Camborne, West Devon, Torbay, Newto Abbott, Mid Dorset, Somerton, Taunton, Yeovil are out of reach.
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2017/09/22/the-political-betting-local-by-election-conference-bounce-index-week-one/
Caveats about LDs in by elections, obv.
0 -
Ishmael_Z said:
Old King Cole’s comments.Sean_F said:
Decent results in a couple of by elections this weekkle4 said:
St. Ives is ultra-marginal, and they have more distant chances in North Cornwall, North Devon, and Cheltenham, but that's it.Sean_F said:
I think they are in big trouble - Labour is in second place in many seats, and UKIP had been before that, even a LD barchart will struggle to say 'Only the LDs can beat the Tories' in swathes of seats in the next election, and good second places provide the groundwork for wins eventually, not all places can be Bath and Oxford.MarqueeMark said:
The collapse in Lib Dem support in the South West has been startling.not_on_fire said:
The political imperative does. The LibDems tried to deny that in the June election. Here in the South-West, the Tory majority over the Lib Dems in Torbay went from 3,200 to 14,200....MarqueeMark said:
The referendum vote was for Brexit. It didn’t require it to be “clean”, whatever that means.nichomar said:MarqueeMark said:
Clegg is one of that group of politicians that seems to have no comprehension of how a failure to deliver a clean Brexit would lead to a catastrophic loss of confidence in our political class. It would be the expenses scandal cubed.Big_G_NorthWales said:Nick Clegg on Marr - We should rejoin the outer orbit of the EU - what is he on!!!
You've been instructed by the electorate. Do it. OK, the likes of Clegg made it their life's work to ensure by silence, subterfuge, skulduggery, that it WAS impossible to exit the EU. But they have to be shown to be wrong, or our democracy is shown to be worthless.
If there is one lesson to learn from recent political events, it is "Don't try to get cute with the voters. They will hand you your ass...."
Seats like Camborne, West Devon, Torbay, Newto Abbott, Mid Dorset, Somerton, Taunton, Yeovil are out of reach.
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2017/09/22/the-political-betting-local-by-election-conference-bounce-index-week-one/
Caveats about LDs in by elections, obv.
I posted a few days ago how I, as a long term Lib/LD felt about what the Coalition had done. I’m still not happy about the tuition fee debacle..... and talking to my teacher grandchildren doesn’t help. Then there’s Legal Aid; I’ve always felt that the legal cards were heavily stacked against poorer people and the Coalition’s changes have made the situation is much worse now.
And that’s just for starters.
And I wonder. How alone am I?0 -
I would rank them exactly in reverse.FF43 said:All the options are bad, but all are possible. I would rank the eventual probabilities as 1) Norway; 2) Canada; 3) EU membership.
Norway is unacceptable to the patriotic 'global Brexit' wing because it is perceived as an abdication of British leadership and doesn't allow us to unlock the benefits of diverging from a sclerotic and failing EU (as they see it).
The problem for them is that the case for the kind of Brexit they favour is built on sand. It's based on misconceptions about the EU, our place in it, and our place in the world.0 -
Personally I think blaming the Tories for that is irrational - whoever proposed it, the people voted for it and not just Tories either, so what people want to do is blame the people. If Labour had cobbled together a government this June and still left the EU, they would shoulder most of the blame regardless of that they did not propose the referendum in the first place, and if the Tories manage a success out of it they won't get additional points for being the ones who proposed it either - it's not a though UKIP are reaping the benefits for being right that a majority of people wanted out.Recidivist said:
But they didn't propose the referendum.kle4 said:
Labour's position has still been confused and contradictory at times, it is a shambles - they are simply fortunate to not be in government with a slim (now non-existent) majority, so they will not be punished for their own shambolic take on things.foxinsoxuk said:
Indeed the Governments position is a carbon copy of what Labour proposed in the summer.DecrepitJohnL said:
Labour's "complete mess" is arguably a more settled position than the government's, which is the one we are trying to implement.MarqueeMark said:
Labour are in a complete mess on the EU. Risible. And the rest of their policies are quickly catching up.... Tories need to settle down, get on with delivering Brexit - and let the inevitable cataclysm at the heart of Labour run its natural course.Big_G_NorthWales said:Corbyn on Marr rejecting membership of the single market on grounds of state aid and nationalisation
Labour are fine on this. Tories own the Brexit shambles.0 -
Morning all
LD prospects and a debate on voting systems - if only Mark Senior was here...
But he's not.
Mark was one of the "old guard" on here from before the 2005 election along with Sean Fear, SeanT, JackW, Harry Hayfield and a few others. Class acts all.
As stated, he won the LD poster of the year beating me and we were both in the 10 to be POTY in the same year. PB was a different place a decade ago - smaller yes, friendlier in some respects with individuals more open minded. I first saw the potential of Coalition on here as liberal Conservatives and Orange Bookers converged.
Though Mark and I were of a similar mind politically, we had our differences yet his psephological insights were always worth reading whether here, on UKPR or latterly Vote 2012.
I wish I could call him "friend" but we never met. It would be appropriate to reprise the wonderful soirée on the terrace of the National Liberal Club in Mark's memory.0 -
Leaving the EU will no do nothing for non-EU migration. In fact it'll probably have to increase making the integration problem even worse.nichomar said:
The problem will be after we leave, in whatever manner unless something is done about immigration from outside the EU a significant part of the population will still be unhappy. Their problems relate to cultural integration and the belief they are being swamped and over run. I think that plays more significanty to many people than EU migrants.0 -
Well, it was looking pretty decent for them until that good Labour campaign...MarqueeMark said:
The LibDems had a great run of by-election successes before the 2015 General Election....Ishmael_Z said:
Decent results in a couple of by elections this weekSean_F said:
St. Ives is ultra-marginal, and they have more distant chances in North Cornwall, North Devon, and Cheltenham, but that's it.kle4 said:
I think they are in big trouble - Labour is in second place in many seats, and UKIP had been before that, even a LD barchart will struggle to say 'Only the LDs can beat the Tories' in swathes of seats in the next election, and good second places provide the groundwork for wins eventually, not all places can be Bath and Oxford.Sean_F said:
The collapse in Lib Dem support in the South West has been startling.MarqueeMark said:
The political imperative does. The LibDems tried to deny that in the June election. Here in the South-West, the Tory majority over the Lib Dems in Torbay went from 3,200 to 14,200....not_on_fire said:
The referendum vote was for Brexit. It didn’t require it to be “clean”, whatever that means.MarqueeMark said:
Clegg would have no problem with EU law retaining primacy. Clegg would have no problem with such EU laws deciding who can and cannot come to the UK - and on what terms. Clegg would have no problems with continuing payments to the EU. None of those represent a clean Brexit.nichomar said:
What is a clean brexit? My ballot paper said leave/remain just because Clegg thinks something different to you makes niether of you right/wrong.MarqueeMark said:
Clegg is one of tBig_G_NorthWales said:Nick Clegg on Marr - We should rejoin the outer orbit of the EU - what is he on!!!
If there is one lesson to learn from recent political events, it is "Don't try to get cute with the voters. They will hand you your ass...."
Seats like Camborne, West Devon, Torbay, Newto Abbott, Mid Dorset, Somerton, Taunton, Yeovil are out of reach.
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2017/09/22/the-political-betting-local-by-election-conference-bounce-index-week-one/
Caveats about LDs in by elections, obv.0 -
The Lib Dems` trouble is that they believed Mrs May when she said, so many times, that there would be no general election until 2020. Very foolish of them. They should have realised that all the members of this Conservative Cabinet are unmitigated liars, bounders and cads.Sean_F said:
St. Ives is ultra-marginal, and they have more distant chances in North Cornwall, North Devon, and Cheltenham, but that's it.kle4 said:
I think they are in big trouble - Labour is in second place in many seats, and UKIP had been before that, even a LD barchart will struggle to say 'Only the LDs can beat the Tories' in swathes of seats in the next election, and good second places provide the groundwork for wins eventually, not all places can be Bath and Oxford.Sean_F said:
The collapse in Lib Dem support in the South West has been startling.
Seats like Camborne, West Devon, Torbay, Newto Abbott, Mid Dorset, Somerton, Taunton, Yeovil are out of reach.
The Lib Dem strategy was, I think, based on winning back ground at the local level first. The Lib Dems would have done much better in the County elections, if Mrs May had not deliberately muddled these up with her general election campaign over the terms of Brexit. Perhaps many electors voted Labour in the general election - safe in the knowledge that Corbyn could not win - as a way of twisting the knife in the Tory wound.
We shall have to see how things go in May 2018 and 2019. I have a feeling that the Tory cheerleaders on PB are crowing too soon.0 -
I agree they would have done better in an ordinary round of County elections.PClipp said:
The Lib Dems` trouble is that they believed Mrs May when she said, so many times, that there would be no general election until 2020. Very foolish of them. They should have realised that all the members of this Conservative Cabinet are unmitigated liars, bounders and cads.Sean_F said:
St. Ives is ultra-marginal, and they have more distant chances in North Cornwall, North Devon, and Cheltenham, but that's it.kle4 said:
I think they are in big trouble - Labour is in second place in many seats, and UKIP had been before that, even a LD barchart will struggle to say 'Only the LDs can beat the Tories' in swathes of seats in the next election, and good second places provide the groundwork for wins eventually, not all places can be Bath and Oxford.Sean_F said:
The collapse in Lib Dem support in the South West has been startling.
Seats like Camborne, West Devon, Torbay, Newto Abbott, Mid Dorset, Somerton, Taunton, Yeovil are out of reach.
The Lib Dem strategy was, I think, based on winning back ground at the local level first. The Lib Dems would have done much better in the County elections, if Mrs May had not deliberately muddled these up with her general election campaign over the terms of Brexit. Perhaps many electors voted Labour in the general election - safe in the knowledge that Corbyn could not win - as a way of twisting the knife in the Tory wound.
We shall have to see how things go in May 2018 and 2019. I have a feeling that the Tory cheerleaders on PB are crowing too soon.0 -
"We LibDems would have got away with it, if it weren't for those pesky kids...."PClipp said:
The Lib Dems` trouble is that they believed Mrs May when she said, so many times, that there would be no general election until 2020. Very foolish of them. They should have realised that all the members of this Conservative Cabinet are unmitigated liars, bounders and cads.Sean_F said:
St. Ives is ultra-marginal, and they have more distant chances in North Cornwall, North Devon, and Cheltenham, but that's it.kle4 said:
I think they are in big trouble - Labour is in second place in many seats, and UKIP had been before that, even a LD barchart will struggle to say 'Only the LDs can beat the Tories' in swathes of seats in the next election, and good second places provide the groundwork for wins eventually, not all places can be Bath and Oxford.Sean_F said:
The collapse in Lib Dem support in the South West has been startling.
Seats like Camborne, West Devon, Torbay, Newto Abbott, Mid Dorset, Somerton, Taunton, Yeovil are out of reach.
The Lib Dem strategy was, I think, based on winning back ground at the local level first. The Lib Dems would have done much better in the County elections, if Mrs May had not deliberately muddled these up with her general election campaign over the terms of Brexit. Perhaps many electors voted Labour in the general election - safe in the knowledge that Corbyn could not win - as a way of twisting the knife in the Tory wound.
We shall have to see how things go in May 2018 and 2019. I have a feeling that the Tory cheerleaders on PB are crowing too soon.
You got caught out - in the SW of England at least - by a very unpopular policy of denying the democratic will of the voters and trotting along with the usual EU policy - "let them keep voting until we get the verdict we want".
Plus your leader in 2017 was a duffer.
But at least he was a young duffer. Unlike....0 -
I think Canada is less likely because avoidance of pain is a powerful motivator. I think rejoining the EU is less likely because it would be too embarrassing. There has to be some point to Brexit right? Which leaves Norway by default. Interestingly Norway is also ""Norway" by default. You're right it's a nonsense solution, but there we go.williamglenn said:
I would rank them exactly in reverse.FF43 said:All the options are bad, but all are possible. I would rank the eventual probabilities as 1) Norway; 2) Canada; 3) EU membership.
Norway is unacceptable to the patriotic 'global Brexit' wing because it is perceived as an abdication of British leadership and doesn't allow us to unlock the benefits of diverging from a sclerotic and failing EU (as they see it).
The problem for them is that the case for the kind of Brexit they favour is built on sand. It's based on misconceptions about the EU, our place in it, and our place in the world.0 -
England in test match mode here, maybe a bit slower.0
-
I'm sure I recall plenty of talk from the LDs before the 2017 election was called that they had been selecting candidates for a long time in preparation for such an event, which would seem at odds with your analysis that they believed May and were thus not ready.PClipp said:
The Lib Dems` trouble is that they believed Mrs May when she said, so many times, that there would be no general election until 2020. Very foolish of them. They should have realised that all the members of this Conservative Cabinet are unmitigated liars, bounders and cads.Sean_F said:
St. Ives is ultra-marginal, and they have more distant chances in North Cornwall, North Devon, and Cheltenham, but that's it.kle4 said:
I think they are in big trouble - Labour is in second place in many seats, and UKIP had been before that, even a LD barchart will struggle to say 'Only the LDs can beat the Tories' in swathes of seats in the next election, and good second places provide the groundwork for wins eventually, not all places can be Bath and Oxford.Sean_F said:
The collapse in Lib Dem support in the South West has been startling.
Seats like Camborne, West Devon, Torbay, Newto Abbott, Mid Dorset, Somerton, Taunton, Yeovil are out of reach.
Maybe it was was a fairly localised preparedness?
https://www.markpack.org.uk/142206/lib-dems-select-candidates-ready-early-general-election/
0 -
Hammonds post election manoeuvres did work becuase he avoid being sacked as Chancellor.
Based on his performance a week ago at the Lords Select Committee Hammond is very much on top of his job. Good answers communicated in a clear and calm way.
0 -
Recovering the local losses of the Coalition years and before is the start and has to be. The two wins last Thursday were both in areas of previous strength.PClipp said:
The Lib Dems` trouble is that they believed Mrs May when she said, so many times, that there would be no general election until 2020. Very foolish of them. They should have realised that all the members of this Conservative Cabinet are unmitigated liars, bounders and cads.
The Lib Dem strategy was, I think, based on winning back ground at the local level first. The Lib Dems would have done much better in the County elections, if Mrs May had not deliberately muddled these up with her general election campaign over the terms of Brexit. Perhaps many electors voted Labour in the general election - safe in the knowledge that Corbyn could not win - as a way of twisting the knife in the Tory wound.
We shall have to see how things go in May 2018 and 2019. I have a feeling that the Tory cheerleaders on PB are crowing too soon.
Curiously, at 105,000 or so, the Party has more members than ever but it's not the Party I joined in 1980 and which broke through locally and nationally in the 80s and 90s and finally got some feet under the Cabinet table in 2010.
The Coalition Experience was complex and multi-layered. It prospered on what was unfortunately a temporary convergence between Cameron's "liberal conservatism" and the Orange Bookers "conservative liberalism". The problem was significant minorities in both parties didn't want the convergence and it couldn't stand.
The Liberal Democrat party now is a product both of the 2015 disaster and the 2016 EU Referendum. It is still finding its way and establishing its identity. This evolution will be of interest to me if no one else.
0 -
Hello, Mr Mark. Glad to see that you are still with us. I was beginning to think that you had died too...... And still being your benign avuncular self, I see......MarqueeMark said:
"We LibDems would have got away with it, if it weren't for those pesky kids...."PClipp said:
The Lib Dems` trouble is that they believed Mrs May when she said, so many times, that there would be no general election until 2020. Very foolish of them. They should have realised that all the members of this Conservative Cabinet are unmitigated liars, bounders and cads.Sean_F said:
St. Ives is ultra-marginal, and they have more distant chances in North Cornwall, North Devon, and Cheltenham, but that's it.kle4 said:
I think they are in big trouble - Labour is in second place in many seats, and UKIP had been before that, even a LD barchart will struggle to say 'Only the LDs can beat the Tories' in swathes of seats in the next election, and good second places provide the groundwork for wins eventually, not all places can be Bath and Oxford.Sean_F said:
The collapse in Lib Dem support in the South West has been startling.
Seats like Camborne, West Devon, Torbay, Newto Abbott, Mid Dorset, Somerton, Taunton, Yeovil are out of reach.
The Lib Dem strategy was, I think, based on winning back ground at the local level first. The Lib Dems would have done much better in the County elections, if Mrs May had not deliberately muddled these up with her general election campaign over the terms of Brexit. Perhaps many electors voted Labour in the general election - safe in the knowledge that Corbyn could not win - as a way of twisting the knife in the Tory wound.
We shall have to see how things go in May 2018 and 2019. I have a feeling that the Tory cheerleaders on PB are crowing too soon.
You got caught out - in the SW of England at least - by a very unpopular policy of denying the democratic will of the voters and trotting along with the usual EU policy - "let them keep voting until we get the verdict we want".
Plus your leader in 2017 was a duffer.
But at least he was a young duffer. Unlike....
I sense that - despite everything - you are still fully behind the cheating, lying Tories.0 -
In other words, GE2017 was, from the LD point of view, the wrong sort of snow. If I ran a political party, I'd have one of those nice needlework thingies on my office wall saying EXPECT THE UNEXPECTED.PClipp said:
The Lib Dems` trouble is that they believed Mrs May when she said, so many times, that there would be no general election until 2020. Very foolish of them. They should have realised that all the members of this Conservative Cabinet are unmitigated liars, bounders and cads.Sean_F said:
St. Ives is ultra-marginal, and they have more distant chances in North Cornwall, North Devon, and Cheltenham, but that's it.kle4 said:
I think they are in big trouble - Labour is in second place in many seats, and UKIP had been before that, even a LD barchart will struggle to say 'Only the LDs can beat the Tories' in swathes of seats in the next election, and good second places provide the groundwork for wins eventually, not all places can be Bath and Oxford.Sean_F said:
The collapse in Lib Dem support in the South West has been startling.
Seats like Camborne, West Devon, Torbay, Newto Abbott, Mid Dorset, Somerton, Taunton, Yeovil are out of reach.
The Lib Dem strategy was, I think, based on winning back ground at the local level first. The Lib Dems would have done much better in the County elections, if Mrs May had not deliberately muddled these up with her general election campaign over the terms of Brexit. Perhaps many electors voted Labour in the general election - safe in the knowledge that Corbyn could not win - as a way of twisting the knife in the Tory wound.
We shall have to see how things go in May 2018 and 2019. I have a feeling that the Tory cheerleaders on PB are crowing too soon.0 -
Who do you honestly think would have done better for Labour under the circumstances.? You and me could not predict our way out of a one way street on how Labour would do at the last general election.SouthamObserver said:The big takeaway from recent events is that despite forming what is undoubtedly the most incompetent government in modern British political history the Tories are a good bet to win most seats at the next general election.
Oh, Jeremy Corbyn ...0 -
Thanks. My evil dark heart still beats....PClipp said:
Hello, Mr Mark. Glad to see that you are still with us. I was beginning to think that you had died too...... And still being your benign avuncular self, I see......MarqueeMark said:
"We LibDems would have got away with it, if it weren't for those pesky kids...."PClipp said:
The Lib Dems` trouble is that they believed Mrs May when she said, so many times, that there would be no general election until 2020. Very foolish of them. They should have realised that all the members of this Conservative Cabinet are unmitigated liars, bounders and cads.Sean_F said:
St. Ives is ultra-marginal, and they have more distant chances in North Cornwall, North Devon, and Cheltenham, but that's it.kle4 said:
I think they are in big trouble - Labour is in second place in many seats, and UKIP had been before that, even a LD barchart will struggle to say 'Only the LDs can beat the Tories' in swathes of seats in the next election, and good second places provide the groundwork for wins eventually, not all places can be Bath and Oxford.Sean_F said:
The collapse in Lib Dem support in the South West has been startling.
Seats like Camborne, West Devon, Torbay, Newto Abbott, Mid Dorset, Somerton, Taunton, Yeovil are out of reach.
The Lib Dem strategy was, I think, based on winning back ground at the local level first. The Lib Dems would have done much better in the County elections, if Mrs May had not deliberately muddled these up with her general election campaign over the terms of Brexit. Perhaps many electors voted Labour in the general election - safe in the knowledge that Corbyn could not win - as a way of twisting the knife in the Tory wound.
We shall have to see how things go in May 2018 and 2019. I have a feeling that the Tory cheerleaders on PB are crowing too soon.
You got caught out - in the SW of England at least - by a very unpopular policy of denying the democratic will of the voters and trotting along with the usual EU policy - "let them keep voting until we get the verdict we want".
Plus your leader in 2017 was a duffer.
But at least he was a young duffer. Unlike....
I sense that - despite everything - you are still fully behind the cheating, lying Tories.
0 -
Basically we want to go back to the deal as it was in January 1992.DavidL said:
Stripping out the spin it is undoubtedly true that what the UK wants is unrestricted access to the single market with freedom of movement being at the UK's discretion. It seems to be an entirely sensible objective. Whether it is achievable remains to be seen.williamglenn said:A theory: the cabinet Brexit committee's real goal has always been to renegotiate membership of the single market without free movement of people.
- The tried prenegotiation but that didn't work. The assumed this was because the EU didn't think they would go through with leaving.
- They announced we would leave the single market. This didn't have the shock effect they were hoping for. Instead the EU welcomed the apparent clarity of the position.
- Hoping we could still shock the EU into submission we invoked Article 50, but instead of a generous offer we got a watertight set of negotiating guidelines that gave us no room for manoeuvre.
- Panic sets in, and they decide that they need a massive majority to force the EU to take them seriously. May calls the election expecting this to happen.
They completely misjudged the strategic from start to finish and now don't how to get out of the mess.
It may not be something our partners want to agree to, but it's not unreasonable or unthinkable to suggest0 -
What terifies Brussels is that it is not unreasonable or unthinkable for other countries to suggest.Charles said:
Basically we want to go back to the deal as it was in January 1992.DavidL said:
Stripping out the spin it is undoubtedly true that what the UK wants is unrestricted access to the single market with freedom of movement being at the UK's discretion. It seems to be an entirely sensible objective. Whether it is achievable remains to be seen.williamglenn said:A theory: the cabinet Brexit committee's real goal has always been to renegotiate membership of the single market without free movement of people.
- The tried prenegotiation but that didn't work. The assumed this was because the EU didn't think they would go through with leaving.
- They announced we would leave the single market. This didn't have the shock effect they were hoping for. Instead the EU welcomed the apparent clarity of the position.
- Hoping we could still shock the EU into submission we invoked Article 50, but instead of a generous offer we got a watertight set of negotiating guidelines that gave us no room for manoeuvre.
- Panic sets in, and they decide that they need a massive majority to force the EU to take them seriously. May calls the election expecting this to happen.
They completely misjudged the strategic from start to finish and now don't how to get out of the mess.
It may not be something our partners want to agree to, but it's not unreasonable or unthinkable to suggest
0 -
Traditionally it has been the Tories that have been ripped apart over Europe (and they are not giving up their crown without a GOT effort) but I do think that the Lib Dems are in danger of suffering too. Their close alignment with the EU did them so little good, despite almost half the country having voted for remain. It was one of the major surprises of a surprising campaign.stodge said:
Recovering the local losses of the Coalition years and before is the start and has to be. The two wins last Thursday were both in areas of previous strength.PClipp said:
The Lib Dems` trouble is that they believed Mrs May when she said, so many times, that there would be no general election until 2020. Very foolish of them. They should have realised that all the members of this Conservative Cabinet are unmitigated liars, bounders and cads.
The Lib Dem strategy was, I think, based on winning back ground at the local level first. The Lib Dems would have done much better in the County elections, if Mrs May had not deliberately muddled these up with her general election campaign over the terms of Brexit. Perhaps many electors voted Labour in the general election - safe in the knowledge that Corbyn could not win - as a way of twisting the knife in the Tory wound.
We shall have to see how things go in May 2018 and 2019. I have a feeling that the Tory cheerleaders on PB are crowing too soon.
Curiously, at 105,000 or so, the Party has more members than ever but it's not the Party I joined in 1980 and which broke through locally and nationally in the 80s and 90s and finally got some feet under the Cabinet table in 2010.
The Coalition Experience was complex and multi-layered. It prospered on what was unfortunately a temporary convergence between Cameron's "liberal conservatism" and the Orange Bookers "conservative liberalism". The problem was significant minorities in both parties didn't want the convergence and it couldn't stand.
The Liberal Democrat party now is a product both of the 2015 disaster and the 2016 EU Referendum. It is still finding its way and establishing its identity. This evolution will be of interest to me if no one else.
The Lib Dems are going to need to work out what they are for once we have left. At the moment the answer is not obvious.0 -
CharlesCharles said:
Basically we want to go back to the deal as it was in January 1992.DavidL said:
Stripping out the spin it is undoubtedly true that what the UK wants is unrestricted access to the single market with freedom of movement being at the UK's discretion. It seems to be an entirely sensible objective. Whether it is achievable remains to be seen.williamglenn said:A theory: the cabinet Brexit committee's real goal has always been to renegotiate membership of the single market without free movement of people.
- The tried prenegotiation but that didn't work. The assumed this was because the EU didn't think they would go through with leaving.
- They announced we would leave the single market. This didn't have the shock effect they were hoping for. Instead the EU welcomed the apparent clarity of the position.
- Hoping we could still shock the EU into submission we invoked Article 50, but instead of a generous offer we got a watertight set of negotiating guidelines that gave us no room for manoeuvre.
- Panic sets in, and they decide that they need a massive majority to force the EU to take them seriously. May calls the election expecting this to happen.
They completely misjudged the strategic from start to finish and now don't how to get out of the mess.
It may not be something our partners want to agree to, but it's not unreasonable or unthinkable to suggest
This is a question for you. I appreciate you may feel unable to answer it if you have insider information or business confidences. If so, that's fine, just say you can't talk about it and we'll leave it.
I have been told there is unease about the possible impact of a hard Brexit on the EU's banking system. Do you know if there is such unease and if so why?
I am seriously hoping, incidentally, that the answer is no, as we seem to be heading firmly for hard Brexit and the last thing we need is a simultaneous banking collapse on the continent.0 -
We had snap election candidates in all or almost all (75%+ minimum) seats chosen before the announcement. Separately from nominal 2020 selection process.kle4 said:
I'm sure I recall plenty of talk from the LDs before the 2017 election was called that they had been selecting candidates for a long time in preparation for such an event, which would seem at odds with your analysis that they believed May and were thus not ready.PClipp said:
The Lib Dems` trouble is that they believed Mrs May when she said, so many times, that there would be no general election until 2020. Very foolish of them. They should have realised that all the members of this Conservative Cabinet are unmitigated liars, bounders and cads.Sean_F said:
St. Ives is ultra-marginal, and they have more distant chances in North Cornwall, North Devon, and Cheltenham, but that's it.kle4 said:
I think they are in big trouble - Labour is in second place in many seats, and UKIP had been before that, even a LD barchart will struggle to say 'Only the LDs can beat the Tories' in swathes of seats in the next election, and good second places provide the groundwork for wins eventually, not all places can be Bath and Oxford.Sean_F said:
The collapse in Lib Dem support in the South West has been startling.
Seats like Camborne, West Devon, Torbay, Newto Abbott, Mid Dorset, Somerton, Taunton, Yeovil are out of reach.
Maybe it was was a fairly localised preparedness?
https://www.markpack.org.uk/142206/lib-dems-select-candidates-ready-early-general-election/0 -
It's what I want but I think that is a little simplistic. By January 92 there was an implicit trade off. The single market in exchange for the social chapter, something for both sides of political divide. The Tories liked the former but not the latter. Labour the latter but not the former. Neither side was convinced that the trade off was particularly acceptable to them.Charles said:
Basically we want to go back to the deal as it was in January 1992.DavidL said:
Stripping out the spin it is undoubtedly true that what the UK wants is unrestricted access to the single market with freedom of movement being at the UK's discretion. It seems to be an entirely sensible objective. Whether it is achievable remains to be seen.williamglenn said:
It may not be something our partners want to agree to, but it's not unreasonable or unthinkable to suggest
The impression I have is that most EU countries, and in particular the EZ countries found this a lot less problematic. Maybe their political classes had the additional investment in the project that we lacked.
0 -
That's impossible philosophically as well as politically.Charles said:Basically we want to go back to the deal as it was in January 1992.
It may not be something our partners want to agree to, but it's not unreasonable or unthinkable to suggest
In January 1992 we were part of a conversation about the monetary future of Europe. We can't get back to that position.0 -
EDIT: Ignore0
-
This is the issue. Corbyn is awful. He is the worst Labour leader of all time. Even Lansbury did a better job than he is doing, and under much more difficult circumstances to boot. Largely this is due to his (a) lack of intelligence (b) inexperience (admirers of Jacob Rees-Mogg please note) and (c) because the things said about him may be unpleasant and may anger his admirers but are, unfortunately, mostly true.Yorkcity said:
Who do you honestly think would have done better for Labour under the circumstances.? You and me could not predict our way out of a one way street on how Labour would do at the last general election.SouthamObserver said:The big takeaway from recent events is that despite forming what is undoubtedly the most incompetent government in modern British political history the Tories are a good bet to win most seats at the next general election.
Oh, Jeremy Corbyn ...
However, there are few good candidates to lead out there. I put up a list of strong potential shadow ministers earlier, but bluntly none of them look like leaders to me. They are either too old, too dull or too unimaginative. Moreover, just to confuse matters, there is no obvious candidate who could win on the left and no obvious candidate in the centre who could reach out to the left. Ashworth would be the nearest, but he's struggling to get a hearing right now because his brief has only a tangetial link to Brexit. Starmer has about the chance as an ice cube in a furnace and for the same reason.
If I wanted a bet on next permanent Labour leader, therefore, my money would now be on Watson, who will have the priceless advantage of being in post as acting leader when Corbyn finally walks off. He's a poor choice. He's not very bright, he's a nasty bully and he's very much tainted by his over-close association with Brown (and even with that he couldn't make Cabinet rank). But he will be there and I am starting to think that will matter more than anything else.
It is however fair to point out that only one acting leader of the party out of four has gone on to be permanent leader - Attlee, as long ago as 1935. Both George Brown and Beckett were defeated and Harman declined to stand. That said, Attlee followed Lansbury just as an election was looming. Watson could play a similar role depending on when Corbyn goes and if a Conservative PM outmanoeuvres Labour.0 -
I thought the vast majority are on here ,the only policy required is to stop Corbyn after spending their money to vote for him in the first place.PClipp said:
Hello, Mr Mark. Glad to see that you are still with us. I was beginning to think that you had died too...... And still being your benign avuncular self, I see......MarqueeMark said:
"We LibDems would have got away with it, if it weren't for those pesky kids...."PClipp said:
The Lib Dems` trouble is that they believed Mrs May when she said, so many times, that there would be no general election until 2020. Very foolish of them. They should have realised that all the members of this Conservative Cabinet are unmitigated liars, bounders and cads.Sean_F said:
St. Ives is ultra-marginal, and they have more distant chances in North Cornwall, North Devon, and Cheltenham, but that's it.kle4 said:
I think they are in big trouble - Labour is in second place in many seats, and UKIP had been before that, even a LD barchart will struggle to say 'Only the LDs can beat the Tories' in swathes of seats in the next election, and good second places provide the groundwork for wins eventually, not all places can be Bath and Oxford.Sean_F said:
The collapse in Lib Dem support in the South West has been startling.
Seats like Camborne, West Devon, Torbay, Newto Abbott, Mid Dorset, Somerton, Taunton, Yeovil are out of reach.
The Lib Dem strategy was, I think, based on winning back ground at the local level first. The Lib Dems would have done much better in the County elections, if Mrs May had not deliberately muddled these up with her general election campaign over the terms of Brexit. Perhaps many electors voted Labour in the general election - safe in the knowledge that Corbyn could not win - as a way of twisting the knife in the Tory wound.
We shall have to see how things go in May 2018 and 2019. I have a feeling that the Tory cheerleaders on PB are crowing too soon.
You got caught out - in the SW of England at least - by a very unpopular policy of denying the democratic will of the voters and trotting along with the usual EU policy - "let them keep voting until we get the verdict we want".
Plus your leader in 2017 was a duffer.
But at least he was a young duffer. Unlike....
I sense that - despite everything - you are still fully behind the cheating, lying Tories.0
This discussion has been closed.