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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Angela Merkel looks well placed to continue as German Chancellor after next month’s German election
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http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-4764742/Lib-Dem-leader-SIR-VINCE-CABLE-attacks-Brexit-fanatics.html
That said, if you'd expect anywhere to defy the trend of populists having huge surges, you'd expect it to be boring steady old Germany.
Similarly, the Dutch election received a lot of attention on here because it was close. The German election will not be close. We know the CDU/CSU will win most seats. Perhaps if we had constituency betting we could analyse it more closely, but we don't.
The CDU/CSU position is analogous to that of the Conservatives after the last election.
They don't have a majority but there's no alternative Government coalition.
Presumably the FDP won't go in with a SPD/Green/Linke grouping and no one will work with AfD so that leaves either the CDU/CSU with the FDP as the most likely option if the FDP make it back into the Bundestag.
Two markets on Betfair:
Year of GE - 2017 is: Back 13 / Lay 19
Second GE in 2017 is: Back 11 / Lay 15.5
Presumably everyone just coming round to the view that there isn't time - May obviously won't call one and even if she is deposed by the time a new leader is elected it'll (practically) be too late.
Plus any new PM would surely want the chance to just be PM for even a short while before risking losing a GE.
My expectation is that they will do badly and that the FDP will be back. The SDP will probably be quite glad to get out of a suffocating grand coalition and back to the relative safety of opposition.
I think the most likely way it could happen is as follows:
Reports suggest Labour may well push remaining a member of the Single Market (or Customs Union) to a vote this Autumn. If they do that and the Government loses then that just might lead to a complete collapse and in turn a GE.
I did it way back in 1999 when I caught Eurostar from Waterloo to Paris, but not since I bought a digital camera.
Although it's not mentioned on PSUL!
The National Government of Bill English, who took over from John Key in 2015, remains in a strong position but rather like Merkel and May, English is likely to fall short of an overall majority and is currently projected to win 56 of the 121 NZ seats.
The opposition Labor Party has recently changed little with Andrew Little replaced with Jacinda Ardem. Labor have as much to do as the SPD in all honesty but unlike their German counterparts, the NZ Greens are running a strong third with NZ First in fourth.
Recent arguments suggest the idea of a Labor-Green-NZ First Government is fairly remote but mathematically feasible. It may be Ardem can make it happen but Peters is the NZ equivalent of Farage (only more successful). If Labor can take support from National it will make the post-election interesting but you'd have to think the solid National support level will hold and English will be elected.
Just been a paying guest today around the Duke of Norfolk's pad at Arundel... The Norfolks seem to be just about managing
Still, we're leaving, all is well.
My own pet theory is that there is a substantial sub section of the population who are sick to the eye teeth of seeing and hearing about Brexit and the attitudes of hard liners on both sides. They gravitated to the Party who didn't bang on about it.
Tories who think rerunning another election based entirely on Hard Brexit whilst prisons and hospitals continue to fail will be in for a rude awakening.
Their interest would only be rekindled by a cancellation of the A50 process (which is not going to happen) or a painful hard brexit directly impacting their lives. Any government of whatever hue can avoid that by agreeing the softest possible brexit. The next GE will be determined on non-Brexit issues: how voters are feeling about the economy, their own and their families' prospects, the state of public services, security etc.
I think the most likely way it could happen is as follows:
Reports suggest Labour may well push remaining a member of the Single Market (or Customs Union) to a vote this Autumn. If they do that and the Government loses then that just might lead to a complete collapse and in turn a GE.
...a GE where Labour would be wiped out in Leave-voting North/Midlands seats in exchange for a few gains in Remain seats.
Really? That was the plan last time wasn't it?
Labour had broadly the same position on the EU as the Tories.
So why would that lead to Labour wipe out in Leave areas next time?
My own pet theory is that there is a substantial sub section of the population who are sick to the eye teeth of seeing and hearing about Brexit and the attitudes of hard liners on both sides. They gravitated to the Party who didn't bang on about it.
In the circumstances described above, the positions would be different - Labour in favour of staying in the SM (ergo Freedom of Movement).
I understand that, but I do not buy it. If leaving the SM is your most important issue, you probably already voted Tory. If not, then yet another vote on the issue is unlikely to be more successful than the first. There is a majority for leave, not for any particular version, and not to the exclusion of other matters.
Agreed. I think most people, whether they were leavers or remainers, now expect us to leave and have lost interest in the subject.
Their interest would only be rekindled by a cancellation of the A50 process (which is not going to happen) or a painful hard brexit directly impacting their lives. Any government of whatever hue can avoid that by agreeing the softest possible brexit. The next GE will be determined on non-Brexit issues: how voters are feeling about the economy, their own and their families' prospects, the state of public services, security etc.
Agreed. I feel that will happen whether the next GE is in 5 months or 5 years. Brexit is a topic that excites strong emotions on some people, but not most.
ps Blockquote fail...apologies.
€40bn (£36bn) is less than 2 years contribution according to the Leave campaign, so I am sure the government could sell it to them!
Brexit dominates everything for the government at the moment, and they are already failing to maintain the appearance of being in control.
It's the equivalent of 2 years contributions (according to Leave - in reality it's equal to 4 years net contributions but Leave will look pretty silly arguing that, given 'the bus').
I think a large majority of the UK public will accept that, if leads to a sensible post-brexit relationship with the EU.
Like Dixiedean I think many people are bored with it - they feel it's all a bit worrying but are not following the details. There will come a crunch at some point - EU negotiations always have a period of deadlock - and that may focus minds again. But I don't think it will sway many votes unless it goes really wonderfully or horribly.
The only fanatic here is Vince Cable who's upset that he misses out on the EU gravy train.
NOBODY Voted for 'Brexit' it is a term that has been hijacked by the Liberal Left Losers to manipulate the wording and ensure we Remain...........mine and 17,399,000 other winning ballot papers CLEARLY said 'LEAVE THE EU', we can't do that if we have ECJ, Free Movement etc etc
There was s referendum - you lost. What is it about democracy that the Lib Dems hate so much, what is it you don't understand? I guarantee if we had a second referendum and Brexit won again, this man would call for another and then another until he gets his way.
"The Remain argument about economic damage is now largely accepted." Really? Accepted by whom? Only by old fools who find themselves leading an almost-defunct, useless political party.
I suspect the readership (or those who Comment and support comments) is in line with the Daily, not Sunday line.
These are the least popular comments:
When will you Brexiters get it into your heads that the "democratic" referendum was only advisory and the government is not required to implement it. Indeed , the general election - which supersedes the referendum - showed there is no majority support for Theresa May's extreme version of Brexit.
f Brexiters are so certain that this is the "will of the people", let's have a second referendum on the terms of Brexit. What are you afraid of?
hope that the brunt of the economic pain from Brexit will be borne by those who voted to leave, but as Mr Cable points out, this group mainly comprises wealthy pensioners who will be unaffected. The rest of the Brexit vote was made up of the Jeremy Kyle underclass - again with nothing to lose.
Brexit: Why Britain Voted to Leave the European Union
by Harold D. Clarke (Author), Matthew Goodwin (Author), Paul Whiteley (Author)
Fascinating stuff!
I can see a fudge where we pay for full SM access during the transition period and a bit over at the end totalling 40 billion. If the EU want payment during the transition period plus 40 billion, it has no chance of passing the cabinet let alone anywhere else.
I do remind people that the UK has no legal liability for pensions, infrastructure projects or anything else.
The UK is not part of a EU 'nation', we are part of an international organisation governed by treaties which they wrote and to which we agreed. These treaties make it clear that (a) liabilities of the EU are liabilities of this organisation, not the member states and (b) that the EU must fund all its expenditure from its own resources, they do not have separate recourse to member states.
* Far-right: We're winning!
* Right: The EU is falling apart and turning into some undefined more nation-statier thing
* Centre / Centre-left: THE WORLD IS DOOMED (Read all about it)
* Left: Neo-liberalism is crumbling!
There's bascally nothing for the UK media in the German election, which is basically Moderate Centre-Right Leader Still On Course To Beat Moderate Centre-Left Leader.
If AfD were in serious contention instead of being down to a few guys and a dog you'd be hearing *lot* about the German election.