Skip to content

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » LAB majority odd tighten. Hung parliament remains favouri

SystemSystem Posts: 12,683
edited November 2013 in General

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » LAB majority odd tighten. Hung parliament remains favourite

There’s been a move back to a LAB majority on the Betfair GE2015 outcome market. The price had moved in by about 3% in the past two days. A hung parliament remains the favourite.

Read the full story here


«1

Comments

  • BobajobBobajob Posts: 1,536
    @Tim FPT - what about if he is listening to the voices inside his own head?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 56,384
    FPT
    Let's face the Labour movement has done nothing to the Co-Op bank that they did not do to the country. It is just a little more obvious and embarrassing.

    The bondholders are by no means all hedgies who bought the distressed debt at a considerable discount. Many are pensioners and former employees and they are the real victims in this. They were being offered a lousy deal by which they either got the interest they had been promised but no capital or a reduced interest rate and reduced capital.

    The only argument for accepting this chiseling, which is capitalism in the raw, is the risk that the roof would come in without a lot of new capital from the hedgies and the Co-Op movement. I am a little bemused that the movement was ever going to get away with this because they were effectively stealing from these bondholders to protect the rest of the group.

    The Hedgies now have a major headache. Having bought on the cheap how bad does a dissolution have to get before they fail to get their money back and a turn? Is it really worth investing another £500m in the hope that 70% of the bank will be worth more than they have already spent and would have to pay? They get paid big bucks for making these calls but I have my doubts.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    I still cannot see a Tory pathway to a majority

    The pathway is pretty clear - hold everything they've got, win 15 LD seats and 10 Labour ones. How likely that is is another matter.
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    It really is all crashing down, now the Marginals comfort blanket being assaulted by Dan...

    Popcorn?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,113
    Tissue_Price said:

    I still cannot see a Tory pathway to a majority

    The pathway is pretty clear - hold everything they've got, win 15 LD seats and 10 Labour ones. How likely that is is another matter.

    Liverpool care pathway likely.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 56,384
    Like others I do not believe that naming an MP is going to produce a swing like Dan is reporting. Politicians are just not that popular.

    The tory prospects depend on winning what used to be called swing voters who were hesitant and voted for Labour the last time because of the scare stories that were being run. And getting half of the UKIP vote back. And getting a better share of the Lib Dem melt down. It's possible but it sure ain't going to be easy. If Labour can successfully present themselves as safe and secure they win. That ain't going to be easy either, especially with Balls there.

    We could be heading towards our most negative campaign ever with both sides arguing that the other side is worse.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,113
    edited November 2013
    http://www.poultryhub.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/06/Langshan-Black-MaleReworked.jpg Gate is tonight's twitter amusement.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,338
    via Guido comments.

    jackdromy.org asm
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    tim said:

    Dan Hodges reckons first time incumbency is worth an extra 8.5% swing, I smell bullsh*t


    Read the quote

    "To underline the theory, he points to the poll of key seats, published by Lord Ashcroft, which gave Labour a 15 point lead. “We reran it in the seats we hold,” he said, “but included the name of the sitting MP. We were ahead by 2 per cent.”

    "We reran it in the seats we hold"

    The whole poll was done in Tory held seats, someone is telling porkies.
    And the idea that mentioning the name of an MP in that list of seats results in an 8.5% swing is just laughable.
    If Hodges believes what he's fed he's an idiot, if he made it up he's an idiot



    In the meantime

    John McTernan ‏@johnmcternan 1h
    @georgeeaton I am guessing that @LordAshcroft disagrees. And he's not afraid to make his polling public.

    Lord Ashcroft ‏@LordAshcroft 21m
    @DPJHodges @johnmcternan @georgeeaton ....correct.....

    Lord Ashcroft ‏@LordAshcroft 15m
    @georgeeaton where are the tables, who conducted the poll and why haven't the results been published per the pollsters code etc etc etc etc



    Dan must be one of your fans???

    Dan Hodges‏@DPJHodges34s
    If Labour activists are so convinced the next election is in the bag, why do they react to any article to the contrary with such hysteria...
  • TheSheikofShakeTheSheikofShake Posts: 83
    According to The Economist, no sitting government has lost power for nearly 50 years where it is ahead on the economic competency question.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,774
    TheSheikofShake said:

    According to The Economist, no sitting government has lost power for nearly 50 years where it is ahead on the economic competency question.

    1997!

    Major and Clarke were ahead of Blair and Brown on that front

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,774
    edited November 2013
    Jack Dromey heh.

    Mrs Harman is going to be happy at him for only favouriting gay porn.

    He'd be a misogynist if he was only favouriting hetro porn
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,774
    The only way I can see a Tory majority is if Scotland quits.

    Current Polling suggests neither is likely to happen before 2015.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180
    lol - tim will talk about anything but he co-op!
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    edited November 2013
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Jack Dromey heh.

    Mrs Harman is going to be happy at him for only favouriting gay porn.

    He'd be a misogynist if he was only favouriting hetro porn

    Cameron spot on here ... about Dromey..

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/google/10457726/Embarrassed-husbands-will-have-to-discuss-plans-to-watch-online-porn-with-their-wives-says-David-Cameron.html
  • RichardNabaviRichardNabavi Posts: 3,413
    edited November 2013
    As antifrank points out, the polling Dan Hodges is referrring to seems to be a private Conservative Party poll, more recent than the Ashcroft poll and not necessarily done on the same basis. What he reports may or may not be accurate, there's no way either of knowing that it is or that it isn't, since such a poll wouldn't be published.

    Best to note it as mildly interesting but not attach much significance to it.

    The bit I liked was this:

    Messina is also regarded as a potentially game-changing hire. “He knows how to run a ground war,” said one admirer. “And he knows how to use data. Data is the key.”

    Where's IoS? Labour may have Algorithms but the Tories have Data!
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,338
    BREAKING NEWS:Paul Flowers has now been suspended indefinitely, Methodist Church says

    BBC ticker
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @MSmithsonPB: @DPJHodges If you put out questionable polling data I will question it

    @DPJHodges: @MSmithsonPB Not putting out anything. It's a quote. But like I say, you do your job and I'll do mine.
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,591
    Since the Tories last won a majority in 1992 there would have been about 260 monthly ICMs. I'd guess that only about 30 of those would have shown the Tories with a lead big enough to give them an overall majority. Maybe one of the statistics fiends on here has the actual data.

    It's a remarkably poor record for the Tories and whilst in itself it isn't fatal to their chances it is hardly encouraging either.
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,784
    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    tim said:

    Dan Hodges reckons first time incumbency is worth an extra 8.5% swing, I smell bullsh*t


    Read the quote

    "To underline the theory, he points to the poll of key seats, published by Lord Ashcroft, which gave Labour a 15 point lead. “We reran it in the seats we hold,” he said, “but included the name of the sitting MP. We were ahead by 2 per cent.”

    "We reran it in the seats we hold"

    The whole poll was done in Tory held seats, someone is telling porkies.
    And the idea that mentioning the name of an MP in that list of seats results in an 8.5% swing is just laughable.
    If Hodges believes what he's fed he's an idiot, if he made it up he's an idiot



    In the meantime

    John McTernan ‏@johnmcternan 1h
    @georgeeaton I am guessing that @LordAshcroft disagrees. And he's not afraid to make his polling public.

    Lord Ashcroft ‏@LordAshcroft 21m
    @DPJHodges @johnmcternan @georgeeaton ....correct.....

    Lord Ashcroft ‏@LordAshcroft 15m
    @georgeeaton where are the tables, who conducted the poll and why haven't the results been published per the pollsters code etc etc etc etc



    Dan must be one of your fans???

    Dan Hodges‏@DPJHodges34s
    If Labour activists are so convinced the next election is in the bag, why do they react to any article to the contrary with such hysteria...
    A better question would be why does anyone bother to react to any of the same old tosh that Hodges recycles week after week.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 56,384
    I have obstinately refused to sign up to twitter. Does this kind of stuff appear like spam on peoples' accounts? Is attempting to block it credible? I really don't know.

    Any which way if this is Guido's idea of a big story these days he really needs to get out more.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,113
    TheSheikofShake said:

    According to The Economist, no sitting government has lost power for nearly 50 years where it is ahead on the economic competency question.

    I think if you go by history and past election stats, there will be a continuation of the coalition. But if you head over to current political geography Labour get in.

    One or the other must go come 2015.
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    Bobajob said:

    @Tim FPT - what about if he is listening to the voices inside his own head?

    Are you in the habit of cracking jokes at the expense of those who are genuinely afflicted by mental illness?

  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    RichardNabavi said:


    Where's IoS? Labour may have Algorithms but the Tories have Data!

    To be fair to IOS his consistent point has been that the Tories havent been doing the ground work necessary to give them good enough data to properly target their campaign. But then he went and spoiled it by claiming that Labour were outworking the Tories in Cornwall.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    More LOL

    RT @SJacksonMP: Co op and Labour: Both not really good with figures.....
    pic.twitter.com/A9QD7AoCLI

    http://t.co/gsMphIT8Ho
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    If only Flowers had been Catholic - he would have simply been moved to another bank in a different country....
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    DavidL said:

    I have obstinately refused to sign up to twitter. Does this kind of stuff appear like spam on peoples' accounts?

    No
    DavidL said:


    Is attempting to block it credible? I really don't know.

    You can block, but the credibility of that is predicated upon your first question...
  • RichardNabaviRichardNabavi Posts: 3,413
    Incidentally something has come up which means I won't make it to the PB booze-up tonight. I hope a good time is had by all!
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,113
    Re First Test - Lay the team that loses the toss a workable strategy ?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 56,384
    I am getting concerned for the welfare of Mr Flowers. When the media of this country go on a witch hunt it really isn't pretty. I fear if we go on like this it is going to end in tragedy.
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    RichardNabavi said:

    As antifrank points out, the polling Dan Hodges is referrring to seems to be a private Conservative Party poll, more recent than the Ashcroft poll and not necessarily done on the same basis. What he reports may or may not be accurate, there's no way either of knowing that it is or that it isn't, since such a poll wouldn't be published.

    Best to note it as mildly interesting but not attach much significance to it.

    The bit I liked was this:

    Messina is also regarded as a potentially game-changing hire. “He knows how to run a ground war,” said one admirer. “And he knows how to use data. Data is the key.”

    Where's IoS? Labour may have Algorithms but the Tories have Data!

    Under BPC rules even a private poll must be published once it is partially in the public domain .
  • Gerry_ManderGerry_Mander Posts: 621
    Jack Dromey might prefer a hung parliament.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Pulpstar said:

    Re First Test - Lay the team that loses the toss a workable strategy ?

    Maybe - but the odds will change in a hurry after the draw - within a minute.

    Also some predicting a green top - but the toss winner may bat anyway and lose a couple early.

    Forecast is excellent - lay the draw :)



  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,338
    @DavidL the delete or block function is on a pull down sub menu, linked to the user profile, whereas the favourite lies at the bottom right of the tweet.

    The next excuses will be I was doing research, the intern did it, I was spammed, or I was out of my mind after a meeting with Rev Paul.
  • RichardNabaviRichardNabavi Posts: 3,413
    MarkSenior said:

    Under BPC rules even a private poll must be published once it is partially in the public domain .

    But would an unattributed quote with no details count? There's nothing to identify the pollster, the date, the seats, the vote shares, etc.
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    RichardNabavi said:


    But would an unattributed quote with no details count?

    And does it count if it's to Dan Hodges?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @hugorifkind: Does anybody want me to run a bank? I have no experience, and I'm not great at counting. But still. Genuine offer.

    @hugorifkind: Fred Goodwin spent weeks making sure the car fleet was the right colour. I could totally do that.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,818
    Gerry_Mander said:

    Jack Dromey might prefer a hung parliament.

    Or at least keen in getting a higher proportion of ethnic minorities..

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,774
    As Mike said recently if there's two words, either on their own or together, that's guaranteed to get political journalists excited it is "private, marginal" polling.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    edited November 2013
    In Mr Hodges missive the quote is :

    "said one Tory analyst.
    To underline the theory, he points to the poll of key seats, published by Lord Ashcroft, which gave Labour a 15 point lead. “We reran it in the seats we hold,” he said,"

    So perhaps a different poll to Lord Ashcroft's ?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,774
    I once accidentally downloaded gay porn.

    The titles are so misleading.

    My then girlfriend wasn't shocked in the slightest.
  • isamisam Posts: 42,619
    edited November 2013
    Hitchens vindicated (although there is a unfortunate typo!)

    http://hitchensblog.mailonsunday.co.uk/2013/11/the-fiddling-of-crime-figures-vindication-of-my-warnings.html
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 56,384
    dr_spyn said:

    @DavidL the delete or block function is on a pull down sub menu, linked to the user profile, whereas the favourite lies at the bottom right of the tweet.

    The next excuses will be I was doing research, the intern did it, I was spammed, or I was out of my mind after a meeting with Rev Paul.

    Thanks. It just seems so unlikely that anyone in the public domain, let alone an MP, would be so stupid. Still a relatively trivial story though.
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    RichardNabavi said:

    MarkSenior said:

    Under BPC rules even a private poll must be published once it is partially in the public domain .

    But would an unattributed quote with no details count? There's nothing to identify the pollster, the date, the seats, the vote shares, etc.
    The intention of the BPC rule is to stop people like Hodges making up fictional figures purporting to be from a reputable polling organisation . There was a case a few years ago when the Conservatives dribbled out some data from a private poll and then had to publish the full poll details .
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    @DavidL

    Twitter is a like a news feed where you opt into what you want to read - but can reply to stories or discuss them with others that you choose to read.

    So if you only picked one person to follow for their opinions - that's all you'd get or the recommendations that they personally pass on. So no spamming bar the odd thing that escapes - I get maybe one or two a week out of thousands I could read.

    It takes a couple of days to get your head around overhearing dozens of conversations if you follow a few - but once its clicked that it. It's like PB discussions but in real time and restricted to the length of a text message - sometimes with a link or a graphic.

    Most Twitter account users don't do much more than read others - IIRC about 5% of all their account holders have more than about 1000 followers, this may have changed as the numbers are growing all the time but that's a stat I saw last year.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Oops

    @BlindGazza: BBC has learned that Paul Flowers was appointed as a LEA school governor after resigning from council for adult images on a laptop -
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 40,750
    Finished work unusually early today and now I'm at Liverpool St sitting in the fanciest Starbucks I've ever been to!
  • NextNext Posts: 826
    tim said:

    TGOHF said:

    In Mr Hodges missive the quote is :

    "said one Tory analyst.
    To underline the theory, he points to the poll of key seats, published by Lord Ashcroft, which gave Labour a 15 point lead. “We reran it in the seats we hold,” he said,"

    So perhaps a different poll to Lord Ashcroft's ?

    1.Dans made it all up.
    2.Someones taken Dan for a ride knowing how desperate to believe he is.
    3.The Tories have done a 12,000 marginals poll replicating Ashcroft but adding the names of the sitting MP.


    3 is the least likely I'd say.

    "“We reran it in the seats we hold,”"

    The original poll was done in seats they hold.

    Was the original marginal poll only for Conservative held seats?

  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    Next said:

    tim said:

    TGOHF said:

    In Mr Hodges missive the quote is :

    "said one Tory analyst.
    To underline the theory, he points to the poll of key seats, published by Lord Ashcroft, which gave Labour a 15 point lead. “We reran it in the seats we hold,” he said,"

    So perhaps a different poll to Lord Ashcroft's ?

    1.Dans made it all up.
    2.Someones taken Dan for a ride knowing how desperate to believe he is.
    3.The Tories have done a 12,000 marginals poll replicating Ashcroft but adding the names of the sitting MP.


    3 is the least likely I'd say.

    "“We reran it in the seats we hold,”"

    The original poll was done in seats they hold.

    Was the original marginal poll only for Conservative held seats?

    Yes ... and No . There was also a national poll at the same time for monitoring purposes .
  • isamisam Posts: 42,619
    edited November 2013
    tim said:

    isam said:

    Hitchens vindicated (although there is a unfortunate typo!)

    http://hitchensblog.mailonsunday.co.uk/2013/11/the-fiddling-of-crime-figures-vindication-of-my-warnings.html


    "One example of this is the MMR matter, where I automatically take the side of perplexed and frightened individuals against a high-handed and bullying state"

    He took the side of Andrew Wakefield who used libel laws to threaten people exposing his rigged data.
    I thought he suggested parents should have the option of one combined jab or three separate?

    Anyway that's not the point of this article. Its about the fiddling of crime figures to suit political agendas being admitted by policemen. Who knew?
  • Gerry_ManderGerry_Mander Posts: 621
    Slackbladder said:

    Gerry_Mander said:

    Jack Dromey might prefer a hung parliament.

    Or at least keen in getting a higher proportion of ethnic minorities..

    Mind bleach for you.
  • SouthCoastKevinSouthCoastKevin Posts: 158
    tim said:

    "12,809 people were interviewed by telephone in the 40 most marginal Conservative-held seats between 1 August and 5 September 2013."

    @tim - I'm not saying you're wrong but it'd be great if you could post a link along with your quotation. At the moment, there's no way of checking what you've apparently quoted; your readers just have to rely on your honesty, both in terms of the quotation being factually accurate and not being misleading (e.g. out of context, or with an important part left out).
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    Oh dear mr Dromey.

    Harriett will not be a happy camper.
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    SouthCoastKevin said:

    tim said:

    "12,809 people were interviewed by telephone in the 40 most marginal Conservative-held seats between 1 August and 5 September 2013."

    @tim - I'm not saying you're wrong but it'd be great if you could post a link along with your quotation. At the moment, there's no way of checking what you've apparently quoted; your readers just have to rely on your honesty, both in terms of the quotation being factually accurate and not being misleading (e.g. out of context, or with an important part left out).
    Lord Ashcroft's polling website has the full data tables , Tim is 100% correct in the figures he has given .
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 40,750
    tim said:

    "David Cameron follows 'high-class escorts' on Twitter

    The Carltons of London account has only posted twice - but is now followed by David Cameron

    Carltons of London's website said it offered the "finest London escorts to gentlemen of distinction".

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-25015034

    Dave will be gutted by the high class gentlemen thing, he's just an ordinary footie fan in Morrisons.

    Too many tweets make a twat...

    Wise words indeed.
  • isamisam Posts: 42,619
    tim said:

    "David Cameron follows 'high-class escorts' on Twitter

    The Carltons of London account has only posted twice - but is now followed by David Cameron

    Carltons of London's website said it offered the "finest London escorts to gentlemen of distinction".

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-25015034

    Dave will be gutted by the high class gentlemen thing, he's just an ordinary footie fan in Morrisons.

    Totally believable accidental follow... and Dromey?
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,338
    Never mind Jack Dromey, Cameron follows escort service.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-25015034
  • isamisam Posts: 42,619
    edited November 2013
    tim said:

    isam said:

    tim said:

    isam said:

    Hitchens vindicated (although there is a unfortunate typo!)

    http://hitchensblog.mailonsunday.co.uk/2013/11/the-fiddling-of-crime-figures-vindication-of-my-warnings.html


    "One example of this is the MMR matter, where I automatically take the side of perplexed and frightened individuals against a high-handed and bullying state"

    He took the side of Andrew Wakefield who used libel laws to threaten people exposing his rigged data.
    I thought he suggested parents should have the option of one combined jab or three separate?

    Anyway that's not the point of this article. Its about the fiddling of crime figures to suit political agendas being admitted by policemen. Who knew?
    I know he wrote about the "official persecution" of Andrew Wakefield, who was presenting fraudulent results and threatening libel suits against anyone questioning his "research"
    How about those made up stats? Dodgy ground for anyone who constantly relies on official government figures and scoffs at ordinary citizens life stories I reckon

  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    isam said:

    tim said:

    "David Cameron follows 'high-class escorts' on Twitter

    The Carltons of London account has only posted twice - but is now followed by David Cameron

    Carltons of London's website said it offered the "finest London escorts to gentlemen of distinction".

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-25015034

    Dave will be gutted by the high class gentlemen thing, he's just an ordinary footie fan in Morrisons.

    Totally believable accidental follow... and Dromey?
    Dromey just likes big, black gay cock. Why is this an issue for some people?
  • NextNext Posts: 826
    dr_spyn said:

    Never mind Jack Dromey, Cameron follows escort service.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-25015034

    Well, when the pr0n is banned...
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @jimwaterson: One Reason This David Cameron Escort Story Is Bollocks http://t.co/O30TR0Z2Tp: he follows 369k people cos Gordon Brown set it to autofollow.
  • compouter1compouter1 Posts: 642
    If you cannot see that the political spin that is Hodges latest article, you are one of the gullible people he is aiming it at. His Tory insider , as always with Hodges, is nameless, the poll he quotes has never been published, it doesn't actually tell you how many people are in the poll, how many seats or what the actual percentages are. The fact the original poll did actually mention on table 7 that they did actually also test the incumbency factor and it gives a similar result doesn't really matter as the whole article is a poor spin effort. The Labour lead has increased over the last two months, and as a way to rally the troops the Tory Party has an unpublished poll that no one had heard of that shows them in front in the marginals if you mention the incumbent MP, with no figures on seats, percentages or people polled. They just needed the right media source who is looked up to by right wing voters to push the message.....stand forward Dan.

    I find it quite funny that so many people responded to it (even the twitter account who clocked that Mr Hodges is typing his own name into twitter to see who is posting about him) and took it so serious. The only real thing that came out of it was when he told OGH "you do your job and I will do mine".

    At least publically he has now admitted he is a part of the Tory spin machine.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,894
    Good evening, everyone.

    F1: sounds like Di Resta may be without a seat next year. Shame, he's a decent driver.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    felix said:

    lol - tim will talk about anything but he co-op!

    I think he might be staying off tax bands for a while too .........
  • isamisam Posts: 42,619
    Neil said:

    isam said:

    tim said:

    "David Cameron follows 'high-class escorts' on Twitter

    The Carltons of London account has only posted twice - but is now followed by David Cameron

    Carltons of London's website said it offered the "finest London escorts to gentlemen of distinction".

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-25015034

    Dave will be gutted by the high class gentlemen thing, he's just an ordinary footie fan in Morrisons.

    Totally believable accidental follow... and Dromey?
    Dromey just likes big, black gay cock. Why is this an issue for some people?
    Hahaha! He's a married man?
  • isamisam Posts: 42,619
    edited November 2013
    tim said:

    isam said:

    tim said:

    isam said:

    tim said:

    isam said:

    Hitchens vindicated (although there is a unfortunate typo!)

    http://hitchensblog.mailonsunday.co.uk/2013/11/the-fiddling-of-crime-figures-vindication-of-my-warnings.html


    "One example of this is the MMR matter, where I automatically take the side of perplexed and frightened individuals against a high-handed and bullying state"

    He took the side of Andrew Wakefield who used libel laws to threaten people exposing his rigged data.
    I thought he suggested parents should have the option of one combined jab or three separate?

    Anyway that's not the point of this article. Its about the fiddling of crime figures to suit political agendas being admitted by policemen. Who knew?
    I know he wrote about the "official persecution" of Andrew Wakefield, who was presenting fraudulent results and threatening libel suits against anyone questioning his "research"
    How about those made up stats? Dodgy ground for anyone who constantly relies on official government figures and scoffs at ordinary citizens life stories I reckon

    I tend to use the British Crime Survey where possible, consistent over the years and showing big falls in crime.
    Murders have fallen in London as immigration has risen, no more River Tiber foaming with blood.

    Deaths caused by British people bombing the underground in the name of Allah have gone up though...



  • BobajobBobajob Posts: 1,536
    Jesus. I think people on here need to get out a lot more.
    Cameron, drugs, escorts, Rev, rent boys, Dromey, cock.

    Who gives a flying f--k?

    More proof that the square root of f all ever happens in Bumpkinshire.
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    edited November 2013
    Equivalency - Labour favourites = Tory following.

    Nothing to see yet again. I give an E for trying.

    Or 40%.

    Can you see what I did there....
  • compouter1compouter1 Posts: 642
    Bobajob said:

    Jesus. I think people on here need to get out a lot more.
    Cameron, drugs, escorts, Rev, rent boys, Dromey, cock.

    Who gives a flying f--k?

    More proof that the square root of f all ever happens in Bumpkinshire.

    At least it keeps them from typing Falkirk.
  • JonathanDJonathanD Posts: 2,400
    Bobajob said:

    Jesus. I think people on here need to get out a lot more.
    Cameron, drugs, escorts, Rev, rent boys, Dromey, cock.

    Who gives a flying f--k?

    More proof that the square root of f all ever happens in Bumpkinshire.


    Its OK, it was all Gordon't fault. Just another part of Brown's mess to clean up

    "Number 10 told the BBC the account had been followed due to an automated system they had in place in 2009"

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-25015034
  • nigel4englandnigel4england Posts: 4,800
    Bobajob said:

    Jesus. I think people on here need to get out a lot more.
    Cameron, drugs, escorts, Rev, rent boys, Dromey, cock.

    Who gives a flying f--k?

    More proof that the square root of f all ever happens in Bumpkinshire.

    Twobobajob rattled again!

    Aren't you the moron who kept posting one word rubbish about Unite last week, or was that the village idiot compouter1

    A lesson for you in life twobobajob, if you can't take it don't dish it out.
  • compouter1compouter1 Posts: 642
    JonathanD said:

    Bobajob said:

    Jesus. I think people on here need to get out a lot more.
    Cameron, drugs, escorts, Rev, rent boys, Dromey, cock.

    Who gives a flying f--k?

    More proof that the square root of f all ever happens in Bumpkinshire.


    Its OK, it was all Gordon't fault. Just another part of Brown's mess to clean up

    "Number 10 told the BBC the account had been followed due to an automated system they had in place in 2009"

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-25015034
    I am sure there must be a chance to get Falkirk in there somewhere.
  • compouter1compouter1 Posts: 642
    nigel4england said:

    Bobajob said:

    Jesus. I think people on here need to get out a lot more.
    Cameron, drugs, escorts, Rev, rent boys, Dromey, cock.

    Who gives a flying f--k?

    More proof that the square root of f all ever happens in Bumpkinshire.

    Twobobajob rattled again!

    Aren't you the moron who kept posting one word rubbish about Unite last week, or was that the village idiot compouter1

    A lesson for you in life twobobajob, if you can't take it don't dish it out.
    **** Blows Nigel a kiss ****
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Европейский комиссар @MoodySlayerUK
    @skynewsniall @joeyjonessky Funny that the BBC run the PM twitter story but not Dromey's twitter story. Maybe Sky have the balls to run it?
  • saddenedsaddened Posts: 2,245
    isam said:

    Neil said:

    isam said:

    tim said:

    "David Cameron follows 'high-class escorts' on Twitter

    The Carltons of London account has only posted twice - but is now followed by David Cameron

    Carltons of London's website said it offered the "finest London escorts to gentlemen of distinction".

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-25015034

    Dave will be gutted by the high class gentlemen thing, he's just an ordinary footie fan in Morrisons.

    Totally believable accidental follow... and Dromey?
    Dromey just likes big, black gay cock. Why is this an issue for some people?
    Hahaha! He's a married man?
    Good point. It's worth noting that no married man has ever been secretly gay. (Not that I think Mr Dromey is), no siree.

  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 40,750
    So apparently Robert Peston finally got the job he has coveted for so long as BBC Economics Editor.

    I really hate that guy. I don't know why, but I really hate him. Nothing to do with any perceived bias or otherwise, I just have an irrational hatred of Peston. Could be his terrible speaking style and awful hesitation when he speaks.

    At least it's not that David Blanchflower idiot, was half expecting the BBC to go for him.
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    edited November 2013
    Plato said:

    Европейский комиссар @MoodySlayerUK
    @skynewsniall @joeyjonessky Funny that the BBC run the PM twitter story but not Dromey's twitter story. Maybe Sky have the balls to run it?

    I'm sure it was a simple error. Someone mistyped 'Harman' to spell 'Hardman'.

  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    edited November 2013
    saddened said:


    Good point. It's worth noting that no married man has ever been secretly gay. (Not that I think Mr Dromey is), no siree.

    Liking big, black cock doesnt make a guy gay.
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    Oh dear - the PM escort 'pigeon' or fig-leaf is another Dugher op in its level of success...


    Paul Waugh @paulwaugh
    RT @jimwaterson: Why DavidCameron following an escort agency on Twitter isn't the scandal u think it is: http://www.buzzfeed.com/jimwaterson/david-cameron-is-following-an-escort-agency-on-twitter-but-i …


    Harry Cole @MrHarryCole
    Escort story falls apart: http://bit.ly/1fVIWlI Now about that other politico tweeter.. who isn't using any bots. Pun intended.


    CCHQ Press Office @RicHolden
    .@MirrorJames going to do the decent think like @PSbookEditor and admit you were mistaken?
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,338
    @MaxPB Peston has been very quick off the mark to investigate the unsuitable corporate goverance at Co-Op Bank in the last 48 hours, if he had such a nose for stories he might have looked as that bank's board in 2008, 2010. The story about weak governance and unsuitable directors was always there, but he chose not to look too closely at the Co-Op.
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    Tweetastic


    Европейский комиссар @MoodySlayerUK
    I bet @HarrietHarman makes @JackDromeyMP sleep in the spare house tonight.
    Retweeted by CCHQ Press Office
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 40,750
    Neil said:

    saddened said:


    Good point. It's worth noting that no married man has ever been secretly gay. (Not that I think Mr Dromey is), no siree.

    Liking big, black cock doesnt make a guy gay.
    Clearly he was just err, curious? ;)
  • BobajobBobajob Posts: 1,536
    nigel4england said:

    Bobajob said:

    Jesus. I think people on here need to get out a lot more.
    Cameron, drugs, escorts, Rev, rent boys, Dromey, cock.

    Who gives a flying f--k?

    More proof that the square root of f all ever happens in Bumpkinshire.

    Twobobajob rattled again!

    Aren't you the moron who kept posting one word rubbish about Unite last week, or was that the village idiot compouter1

    A lesson for you in life twobobajob, if you can't take it don't dish it out.
    I'm rattled, yes. Rattled by just how unworldly the curtain twitchers on here are. Live and let live.

  • saddenedsaddened Posts: 2,245
    Neil said:

    saddened said:


    Good point. It's worth noting that no married man has ever been secretly gay. (Not that I think Mr Dromey is), no siree.

    Liking big, black cock doesnt make a guy gay.
    it's a decent combat indicator though.

  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    dr_spyn said:

    @MaxPB Peston has been very quick off the mark to investigate the unsuitable corporate goverance at Co-Op Bank in the last 48 hours, if he had such a nose for stories he might have looked as that bank's board in 2008, 2010. The story about weak governance and unsuitable directors was always there, but he chose not to look too closely at the Co-Op.

    Why would that be - sally bercow innocent face?
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    Lord A is quick to give us some reality....

    http://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2013/11/from-lordashcroft-if-the-tories-are-returning-to-comfort-polling-thats-a-bad-sign.html
  • JohnLoonyJohnLoony Posts: 1,790
    Hello fellow Peebs!
    I am not going to Dirty Dicks this evening.
    It's not that I hate you all or anything; I just can't be bothered to spend money on a train ticket to trawl across London and back in the cold and rain.
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    saddened said:

    Neil said:

    saddened said:


    Good point. It's worth noting that no married man has ever been secretly gay. (Not that I think Mr Dromey is), no siree.

    Liking big, black cock doesnt make a guy gay.
    it's a decent combat indicator though.

    Maybe he was just trying to find out whether what they all say is true?

    That's there's nothing too juvenile for some people to spend an afternoon obsessing about.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,338
    BREAKING NEWS:The government has defeated an attempt by Tory rebels to halt moves to re-structure the Army.
  • compouter1compouter1 Posts: 642
    tim said:

    Ashcroft takes apart Hodges' idiocy

    "All this was very cheering until I got to the part about the Tories’ private polling. In September, I published a poll of the 40 most marginal Conservative seats. In the 32 with Labour in second place, the Tories trailed by 14 points, 43 per to 29 per cent. According to one “Tory analyst”, however, this is not the true picture because it fails to take into account the incumbency factor – the advantage held by sitting MPs, particularly those defending theirs seat for the first time. The party “re-ran” my poll, the Tory analyst said, “but included the name of the sitting MP. We were ahead by two per cent”.

    There are several problems with this. The incumbency factor is well documented, but if it were having a meaningful effect it would have done so in my poll – it would not be necessary to prompt for it by naming the MP. (More worrying, maybe it is having an effect, and without it my poll results would have been even gloomier).

    As worrying is the idea that the private poll “included the name of the sitting MP” but – by implication, and of necessity since not all candidates will have been selected – nobody else. It would not be surprising if this skewed the result considerably in favour of the incumbent. Did the party really spend money on a such a flawed survey?

    Even if they did, it sounds unlikely that you could transform a double-digit deficit to a two-point lead simply by naming the MP. Which makes one wonder about other aspects of the poll. Which seats was it conducted in? What was the sample size? How was it weighted? How were the questions worded? With most polls, including mine, all this information is published. Where it is not, it is worth taking any reported results with more than a pinch of salt.


    http://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2013/11/from-lordashcroft-if-the-tories-are-returning-to-comfort-polling-thats-a-bad-sign.html

    Wonder if Dan will tell Lord A to do his job and Dan will do his?
  • JohnLoonyJohnLoony Posts: 1,790
    MaxPB said:

    So apparently Robert Peston finally got the job he has coveted for so long as BBC Economics Editor.

    I really hate that guy. I don't know why, but I really hate him. Nothing to do with any perceived bias or otherwise, I just have an irrational hatred of Peston. Could be his terrible speaking style and awful hesitation when he speaks.

    Isn't it normal for all normal people to dislike Peston, precisely for the reasons you mention?
    I believe that his awkward speaking style is the legacy of having overcome a bad stammer when he was younger, but that's no reason to suspend one's dislike. Part of the fun of disliking someone or something is that there doesn't have to be a proper reason.
  • BobajobBobajob Posts: 1,536
    SeanT said:

    MaxPB said:

    So apparently Robert Peston finally got the job he has coveted for so long as BBC Economics Editor.

    I really hate that guy. I don't know why, but I really hate him. Nothing to do with any perceived bias or otherwise, I just have an irrational hatred of Peston. Could be his terrible speaking style and awful hesitation when he speaks.

    At least it's not that David Blanchflower idiot, was half expecting the BBC to go for him.

    Did you know Peston's wife died, horribly young, rather recently, in very saddening circumstances?

    I agree his accent grates but when I read about this, much of my animosity melted.

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2198714/Robert-Pestons-heartbreak-wife-Sian-Busby-dies-long-battle-lung-cancer.html

    Agree there Sean. It received remarkably little publicity - a truly saddening tragedy and my reaction was the same as yours, from the same position.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,338
    SeanT I agree that it would be hard to cope with the loss of a wife, only to have grief deepened by theft of her rings. I wouldn't wish that on anyone.

  • BobajobBobajob Posts: 1,536
    Neil said:

    saddened said:

    Neil said:

    saddened said:


    Good point. It's worth noting that no married man has ever been secretly gay. (Not that I think Mr Dromey is), no siree.

    Liking big, black cock doesnt make a guy gay.
    it's a decent combat indicator though.

    Maybe he was just trying to find out whether what they all say is true?

    That's there's nothing too juvenile for some people to spend an afternoon obsessing about.
    Quite. The entire day has been a spectacle in just how far we have to go before some people get a life.
  • compouter1compouter1 Posts: 642
    From Lord A "There is nothing wrong with trying to cheer up the troops. But the correct response to bad poll numbers is to learn from them and change them, not to try and rebut them. Boosting morale is one thing; being in denial is another thing altogether"....err.... what was I saying earlier.
  • isamisam Posts: 42,619
    Neil said:

    saddened said:

    Neil said:

    saddened said:


    Good point. It's worth noting that no married man has ever been secretly gay. (Not that I think Mr Dromey is), no siree.

    Liking big, black cock doesnt make a guy gay.
    it's a decent combat indicator though.

    Maybe he was just trying to find out whether what they all say is true?

    That's there's nothing too juvenile for some people to spend an afternoon obsessing about.
    "People like you Boy George, you see a man looking up big black cock porn on a gay website and you immediately slap on a label.."

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UV__F2IzYk8

  • BobajobBobajob Posts: 1,536
    Interesting thing about Ashcroft is that he is living proof that running on associations rarely works - remember Labour's Ashcroft millions meme - some good that did them. He also undermined it somewhat by turning out to be a decent bloke, notwithstanding his tax avoiding ways.
  • BobajobBobajob Posts: 1,536
    isam said:

    Neil said:

    saddened said:

    Neil said:

    saddened said:


    Good point. It's worth noting that no married man has ever been secretly gay. (Not that I think Mr Dromey is), no siree.

    Liking big, black cock doesnt make a guy gay.
    it's a decent combat indicator though.

    Maybe he was just trying to find out whether what they all say is true?

    That's there's nothing too juvenile for some people to spend an afternoon obsessing about.
    "People like you Boy George, you see a man looking up big black cock porn on a gay website and you immediately slap on a label.."

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UV__F2IzYk8

    Live and let live.
  • richardDoddrichardDodd Posts: 5,472
    Bobajob ..You really have got to be kidding..as Mick would say.. unspoofable..
  • R0bertsR0berts Posts: 391
    Gawd Dan Hodges gets funnier by the day!

    Is JackW his insider "Tory analyst"?
This discussion has been closed.

© Vanilla Keystone Theme 2025