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    Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256

    Mr. Gin, manoeuvres*.

    He's an oaf. The sentiment is fine, indeed, correct, but the Foreign Secretary is acting like candidate Boris. He's playing to the gallery when he should be doing his job.

    He is doing his job - securing his own position. What did you think his job was? :D
    Just this morning he gave Johnny Foreigner a spanking he won't forget in a hurry. Or are you suggesting he is merely grandstanding?

    Either way it seems to have worked, unless he is converting the previously converted?
    Sometimes you can kill two birds with one stone ;)
    I would like to add I am not in the 'converted' category although part of me thinks he personally owns the Brexit 'train wreck' and I wouldn't be averse to the ticking time bomb being handed to him!
    Likewise.
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    madmacsmadmacs Posts: 75
    dixiedean said:

    As well as the large number of Labour activists/posters visible in my area, the opposite was significant, too.
    It was particularly galling to see gleeful tweets of local Tory MP and activists campaigning in Bishop Auckland, Blyth, Stockton, etc. (All lost). Everywhere other than their own constituency.
    No wonder there were no posters. Why should anyone bother? The MP didn't appear in his own seat till the Tuesday before the vote.

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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,995
    stevef said:


    Corbyn will get a similar youth vote next time -no doubt still piling up votes in existing seats -but it is unlikely that the Tories will have the same leader, or that any of the other above mentioned conditions will be repeated.

    WRT The Tories & Labour, there is practically no electoral bias in the system right now. A UNS towards Labour (Of 1.15% to equal vote shares) would leave them as a slightly smaller party, but due to the SNP's improved position* it means they are in a superior position to provide the PM on equal vote shares.

    *A collapse in the SNP would benefit SLAB more than SCON, so the prognosis for next PM doesn't change.

    It'd be a weak government mind with support from BOTH the SNP and the Lib Dems needed as things stand. Certainly more shaky than the Con-DUP arrangement.
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,953
    edited July 2017
    A swing of 0.5% would have delivered a Conservative majority. A swing of 1% would have delivered a working majority.

    Given such a tight outcome, one can say that Labour's ground game deprived the Conservatives of their majority, but then, so did any one of the numerous errors in the Conservatives' campaign.
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    madmacsmadmacs Posts: 75
    Absolutely correct. Tory MPs in Gloucestershire flocked to Cheltenham, including the MP for Stroud. The nay seat in the county to change hands - Stroud, where the Labour tsunami went undetected until too late.
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,953
    madmacs said:

    Absolutely correct. Tory MPs in Gloucestershire flocked to Cheltenham, including the MP for Stroud. The nay seat in the county to change hands - Stroud, where the Labour tsunami went undetected until too late.

    In fairness, campaigning in Cheltenham made sense.
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,953
    Pulpstar said:

    stevef said:


    Corbyn will get a similar youth vote next time -no doubt still piling up votes in existing seats -but it is unlikely that the Tories will have the same leader, or that any of the other above mentioned conditions will be repeated.

    WRT The Tories & Labour, there is practically no electoral bias in the system right now. A UNS towards Labour (Of 1.15% to equal vote shares) would leave them as a slightly smaller party, but due to the SNP's improved position* it means they are in a superior position to provide the PM on equal vote shares.

    *A collapse in the SNP would benefit SLAB more than SCON, so the prognosis for next PM doesn't change.

    It'd be a weak government mind with support from BOTH the SNP and the Lib Dems needed as things stand. Certainly more shaky than the Con-DUP arrangement.
    Only Scottish Labour gains from the Conservatives matter. If they gain from the SNP, it makes no difference to their prospect of forming a government.
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    Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    dixiedean said:

    As well as the large number of Labour activists/posters visible in my area, the opposite was significant, too.
    It was particularly galling to see gleeful tweets of local Tory MP and activists campaigning in Bishop Auckland, Blyth, Stockton, etc. (All lost). Everywhere other than their own constituency.
    No wonder there were no posters. Why should anyone bother? The MP didn't appear in his own seat till the Tuesday before the vote.

    Where I live (rock solid Tory seat) you would not have thought that there was an election happening. The MP's majority declined from 13,000 to 6,000 with almost no posters, meetings, canvassing or other voter interaction. I guess we are taken for granted here.
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,430
    Worst campaign in history? Is that why the Tories still managed to out-poll Corbyn and win more seats?
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,787
    edited July 2017
    Institute for Government chart and on U.K. vs EU citizens proposals:

    https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/brexit-explained/citizens-rights

    Looks like there needs to be a little movement on both sides
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,068
    Sean_F said:

    madmacs said:

    Absolutely correct. Tory MPs in Gloucestershire flocked to Cheltenham, including the MP for Stroud. The nay seat in the county to change hands - Stroud, where the Labour tsunami went undetected until too late.

    In fairness, campaigning in Cheltenham made sense.
    I'm staggered how close the LibDems came in Cheltenham.
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    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,313
    Sean_F said:

    Pulpstar said:

    stevef said:


    Corbyn will get a similar youth vote next time -no doubt still piling up votes in existing seats -but it is unlikely that the Tories will have the same leader, or that any of the other above mentioned conditions will be repeated.

    WRT The Tories & Labour, there is practically no electoral bias in the system right now. A UNS towards Labour (Of 1.15% to equal vote shares) would leave them as a slightly smaller party, but due to the SNP's improved position* it means they are in a superior position to provide the PM on equal vote shares.

    *A collapse in the SNP would benefit SLAB more than SCON, so the prognosis for next PM doesn't change.

    It'd be a weak government mind with support from BOTH the SNP and the Lib Dems needed as things stand. Certainly more shaky than the Con-DUP arrangement.
    Only Scottish Labour gains from the Conservatives matter. If they gain from the SNP, it makes no difference to their prospect of forming a government.
    It does if they don't want to rely on the SNP to form a government!
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,990

    Institute for Government chart and on U.K. vs EU citizens proposals:

    https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/brexit-explained/citizens-rights

    Looks like there needs to be a little movement on both sides

    The UK and EU proposals aren't actually that far apart.
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    YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382

    Worst campaign in history? Is that why the Tories still managed to out-poll Corbyn and win more seats?

    Yes you keep making the same point with your false bar charts.But you fail to understand or( rather just taking the piss).That when you call an unnecessary election as you already have a majority then with a 20% poll lead you go onto have a minority government it is hardly a success.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Is Donald Trump Jr admitting to potentially unwise activity live on Twitter?
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,995
    rcs1000 said:

    Sean_F said:

    madmacs said:

    Absolutely correct. Tory MPs in Gloucestershire flocked to Cheltenham, including the MP for Stroud. The nay seat in the county to change hands - Stroud, where the Labour tsunami went undetected until too late.

    In fairness, campaigning in Cheltenham made sense.
    I'm staggered how close the LibDems came in Cheltenham.
    58% remain constituency, I had a small (PP ltd stakes of £1.20 or so) punt on the Lib Dems at 9-1 here which I was happy with.

    The one surprising result from the Southwest for me was how close St Ives was, and also Eastbourne.
    I personally thought Lewes might be the 2nd LD Gain in the region after Bath.
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    GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071

    dixiedean said:

    As well as the large number of Labour activists/posters visible in my area, the opposite was significant, too.
    It was particularly galling to see gleeful tweets of local Tory MP and activists campaigning in Bishop Auckland, Blyth, Stockton, etc. (All lost). Everywhere other than their own constituency.
    No wonder there were no posters. Why should anyone bother? The MP didn't appear in his own seat till the Tuesday before the vote.

    Where I live (rock solid Tory seat) ...
    Galway West?

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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,068
    RobD said:

    Institute for Government chart and on U.K. vs EU citizens proposals:

    https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/brexit-explained/citizens-rights

    Looks like there needs to be a little movement on both sides

    The UK and EU proposals aren't actually that far apart.
    The dirty little secret about the Brexit negotiations is that on money and citizens rights, the EU and the UK are very close to agreement.

    The difficult issues are going to be the trade negotiations, keeping a "frictionless" border in Ireland, electronic freight manifests so as to minimise customs checks, and fishing.
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    GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    Scott_P said:

    Is Donald Trump Jr admitting to potentially unwise activity live on Twitter?

    I don't know - haven't seen that. Why don't you Scott'n'Paste it?

    You retweet every other f*cking thing from there.
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    rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,918
    Scott_P said:
    Part of the plan is not to tell Boris.
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    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,055
    Cheap food but no medicines, eh?
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    GeoffM said:

    You retweet every other f*cking thing from there.

    look up retweet...
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,068
    Pulpstar said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sean_F said:

    madmacs said:

    Absolutely correct. Tory MPs in Gloucestershire flocked to Cheltenham, including the MP for Stroud. The nay seat in the county to change hands - Stroud, where the Labour tsunami went undetected until too late.

    In fairness, campaigning in Cheltenham made sense.
    I'm staggered how close the LibDems came in Cheltenham.
    58% remain constituency, I had a small (PP ltd stakes of £1.20 or so) punt on the Lib Dems at 9-1 here which I was happy with.

    The one surprising result from the Southwest for me was how close St Ives was, and also Eastbourne.
    I personally thought Lewes might be the 2nd LD Gain in the region after Bath.
    The YouGov poll got St Ives almost exactly right.
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    nigel4englandnigel4england Posts: 4,800

    Cheap food but no medicines, eh?
    Exactly.

    We can stuff ourselves silly but will die a painful death.

    Idiot.
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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    One point to note. For months in advance of the general election, the Conservatives' performance in local by-elections had been decidedly ho-hum. This was dismissed as irrelevant by those pbers who were uber-loyalist to the blue cause. But it seems to have foreshadowed a lack of enthusiasm for the Conservative cause that proved to be important when their campaign was put under strain.
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,953
    Pulpstar said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sean_F said:

    madmacs said:

    Absolutely correct. Tory MPs in Gloucestershire flocked to Cheltenham, including the MP for Stroud. The nay seat in the county to change hands - Stroud, where the Labour tsunami went undetected until too late.

    In fairness, campaigning in Cheltenham made sense.
    I'm staggered how close the LibDems came in Cheltenham.
    58% remain constituency, I had a small (PP ltd stakes of £1.20 or so) punt on the Lib Dems at 9-1 here which I was happy with.

    The one surprising result from the Southwest for me was how close St Ives was, and also Eastbourne.
    I personally thought Lewes might be the 2nd LD Gain in the region after Bath.
    I was surprised by Conservative losses in Kensington, Canterbury, Battersea, Stroud, Portsmouth South, Crewe & Nantwich, Reading East, Warwick & Leamington, Peterborough, Stockton South, Colne Valley, High Peak, Derby North, and Lincoln. I was also surprised by their failure to gain Chester, Newcastle under Lyme, Halifax, and Birmingham Erdington.

    As against that, I had thought that the Conservatives would be vulnerable in St. Albans, and some of the seats down the M3 and M4 corridors that voted Remain.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,990

    One point to note. For months in advance of the general election, the Conservatives' performance in local by-elections had been decidedly ho-hum. This was dismissed as irrelevant by those pbers who were uber-loyalist to the blue cause. But it seems to have foreshadowed a lack of enthusiasm for the Conservative cause that proved to be important when their campaign was put under strain.

    That doesn't fit with the results of the actual local elections though, does it?
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @iainjwatson: Asked about Boris's 'no plan for no deal' no10 says planning for all eventualities is taking place across govt
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,990
    edited July 2017
    Scott_P said:

    @iainjwatson: Asked about Boris's 'no plan for no deal' no10 says planning for all eventualities is taking place across govt

    Makes a change from before the referendum :smiley:
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,953

    One point to note. For months in advance of the general election, the Conservatives' performance in local by-elections had been decidedly ho-hum. This was dismissed as irrelevant by those pbers who were uber-loyalist to the blue cause. But it seems to have foreshadowed a lack of enthusiasm for the Conservative cause that proved to be important when their campaign was put under strain.

    But then came Copeland, and the Conservatives' local by-election performance was transformed, and the local elections in May were excellent.

    Even if leads of 20% were froth, I think the Conservatives really were leading by double digits at the start of the campaign, and then threw it away.
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    Do all the youngsters who voted Labour know that Corbyn wants to shut down Uber?
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,068
    Sean_F said:

    One point to note. For months in advance of the general election, the Conservatives' performance in local by-elections had been decidedly ho-hum. This was dismissed as irrelevant by those pbers who were uber-loyalist to the blue cause. But it seems to have foreshadowed a lack of enthusiasm for the Conservative cause that proved to be important when their campaign was put under strain.

    But then came Copeland, and the Conservatives' local by-election performance was transformed, and the local elections in May were excellent.

    Even if leads of 20% were froth, I think the Conservatives really were leading by double digits at the start of the campaign, and then threw it away.
    The curious thing about the locals vs the GE, to me, was that the LDs did very well in vote share in the locals, but disastrously in terms of seats. In the GE, that was reversed: they did disastrously in terms of vote share, but very well in terms of seats.
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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    Do all the youngsters who voted Labour know that Corbyn wants to shut down Uber?

    If the Conservatives were operating a functioning government, it would be the only topic of discussion on social media today.
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    rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,918
    Scott_P said:

    Is Donald Trump Jr admitting to potentially unwise activity live on Twitter?

    It's amazing.
    The case for Trump's defence is now:

    Yes the Russians did hack Hilary's campaign. And yes we went to meetings and tried to collude to subvert democracy. But we met the wrong Russians who didn't have useful information so we were unsuccessful.
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    Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091

    Do all the youngsters who voted Labour know that Corbyn wants to shut down Uber?

    Source?
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,953
    edited July 2017
    rcs1000 said:

    Sean_F said:

    One point to note. For months in advance of the general election, the Conservatives' performance in local by-elections had been decidedly ho-hum. This was dismissed as irrelevant by those pbers who were uber-loyalist to the blue cause. But it seems to have foreshadowed a lack of enthusiasm for the Conservative cause that proved to be important when their campaign was put under strain.

    But then came Copeland, and the Conservatives' local by-election performance was transformed, and the local elections in May were excellent.

    Even if leads of 20% were froth, I think the Conservatives really were leading by double digits at the start of the campaign, and then threw it away.
    The curious thing about the locals vs the GE, to me, was that the LDs did very well in vote share in the locals, but disastrously in terms of seats. In the GE, that was reversed: they did disastrously in terms of vote share, but very well in terms of seats.
    12 seats is a good return for 7.6%, but it's still pretty dismal.

    The number of realistic targets for the Lib Dems has fallen. Some of the Tory majorities in seats that were recently held by the Lib Dems, or were very marginal, are now enormous,
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    Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    edited July 2017
    A lot of the "youngsters" who voted Labour will be people who work for some of these exploitative Uber-type employers, or have friends who work for them, or fear they're going to end up having to work for them due to a lack of decent jobs with the way things are going.
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,430
    Yorkcity said:

    Worst campaign in history? Is that why the Tories still managed to out-poll Corbyn and win more seats?

    Yes you keep making the same point with your false bar charts.But you fail to understand or( rather just taking the piss).That when you call an unnecessary election as you already have a majority then with a 20% poll lead you go onto have a minority government it is hardly a success.
    I was schooled in the LibDem style of barcharts :lol:
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,787
    RobD said:

    Institute for Government chart and on U.K. vs EU citizens proposals:

    https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/brexit-explained/citizens-rights

    Looks like there needs to be a little movement on both sides

    The UK and EU proposals aren't actually that far apart.
    The EU seems to be quite schizophrenic when it comes to the status of the UK post-Brexit:

    Trade: 'Third country'
    Citizens: 'Vassal state'
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,787
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    Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Sean_F said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sean_F said:

    One point to note. For months in advance of the general election, the Conservatives' performance in local by-elections had been decidedly ho-hum. This was dismissed as irrelevant by those pbers who were uber-loyalist to the blue cause. But it seems to have foreshadowed a lack of enthusiasm for the Conservative cause that proved to be important when their campaign was put under strain.

    But then came Copeland, and the Conservatives' local by-election performance was transformed, and the local elections in May were excellent.

    Even if leads of 20% were froth, I think the Conservatives really were leading by double digits at the start of the campaign, and then threw it away.
    The curious thing about the locals vs the GE, to me, was that the LDs did very well in vote share in the locals, but disastrously in terms of seats. In the GE, that was reversed: they did disastrously in terms of vote share, but very well in terms of seats.
    12 seats is a good return for 7.6%, but it's still pretty dismal.

    The number of realistic targets for the Lib Dems has fallen. Some of the Tory majorities in seats that were recently held by the Lib Dems, or were very marginal, are now enormous,
    Hell, the LibDems aren't even the challengers in a lot of those seats anymore.

    I was astonished in the last thread to see that Labour are now second in Newton Abbot.
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,430
    rkrkrk said:

    Scott_P said:

    Is Donald Trump Jr admitting to potentially unwise activity live on Twitter?

    It's amazing.
    The case for Trump's defence is now:

    Yes the Russians did hack Hilary's campaign. And yes we went to meetings and tried to collude to subvert democracy. But we met the wrong Russians who didn't have useful information so we were unsuccessful.
    The Russian subversion was SO successful that Hillary actually WON the popular vote :)
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,005
    Miss Vance, sounds like assets and liabilities. All the assets belong to the EU, all the liabilities are shared and the UK has to pay up.
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    rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,918

    rkrkrk said:

    Scott_P said:

    Is Donald Trump Jr admitting to potentially unwise activity live on Twitter?

    It's amazing.
    The case for Trump's defence is now:

    Yes the Russians did hack Hilary's campaign. And yes we went to meetings and tried to collude to subvert democracy. But we met the wrong Russians who didn't have useful information so we were unsuccessful.
    The Russian subversion was SO successful that Hillary actually WON the popular vote :)
    Oh whether it was successful or not is hardly the point...

    The point is that working with a hostile country to spy on your opponents is wrong!
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    rkrkrk said:

    It's amazing.
    The case for Trump's defence is now:

    Yes the Russians did hack Hilary's campaign. And yes we went to meetings and tried to collude to subvert democracy. But we met the wrong Russians who didn't have useful information so we were unsuccessful.

    Actually that seems to be Trump Jr's defence.

    I think Trump Sr is still claiming "I didn't know about it"
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @TomGilbart: Conference

    Lawyer: The evidence is strong
    Trump Jr: I can PROVE I didn't do it
    Lawyer: How?
    Trump Jr: This email in which I confess
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    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,367
    For better or worse, Labour is currently an experiment in mass membership in the modern era where such things were supposed to be redundant. There was a lot of talk before the campaign about how useless the new members were at actually doing stuff, but when it counted they turned out, in the face of the most discouraging opinion polls that I've ever seen. They've also changed the funding model - the party is nowhere near as rich as the Tories, but it's less dependent on the unions and a few major donors. Politics aside, that seems a healthy development, and perhaps any Tory recovery plan needs to include some serious recruitment.

    The Tory campaign did seem to include really massive funding of phone canvassing - even in my safe Labour seat of Nottingham North., Labour voters grumbled that they were being called repeatedly by Tory phone banks (which seems odd anyway - we generally take "no" for an answer when canvassing and hope the voter forgets the whole thing). Presumably the hasty campaign meant this wasn't being well coordinated and they just gave direct phoning companies a script and a million numbers and told them to get on with it.
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,430
    Euratom includes Switzerland as an "associate".
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,430
    rkrkrk said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Scott_P said:

    Is Donald Trump Jr admitting to potentially unwise activity live on Twitter?

    It's amazing.
    The case for Trump's defence is now:

    Yes the Russians did hack Hilary's campaign. And yes we went to meetings and tried to collude to subvert democracy. But we met the wrong Russians who didn't have useful information so we were unsuccessful.
    The Russian subversion was SO successful that Hillary actually WON the popular vote :)
    Oh whether it was successful or not is hardly the point...

    The point is that working with a hostile country to spy on your opponents is wrong!
    Maybe the Russians actually wanted Hillary to win?
  • Options
    GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    edited July 2017
    Scott_P said:

    GeoffM said:

    You retweet every other f*cking thing from there.

    look up retweet...
    From dictionary.com

    retweet
    riːˈtwiːt/
    verb
    1.
    repost or forward (a message posted by another user).
    "tweet any crap you like; Scott_P will retweet it on PB.com"
    noun
    1.
    a reposted or forwarded message from Twitter.
    "politicalbetting.com was quickly flooded with shite retweets"
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,134
    Davis: If American banks want to relocate to Paris or Frankfurt good luck to them.
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,430
    Danny565 said:

    Sean_F said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sean_F said:

    One point to note. For months in advance of the general election, the Conservatives' performance in local by-elections had been decidedly ho-hum. This was dismissed as irrelevant by those pbers who were uber-loyalist to the blue cause. But it seems to have foreshadowed a lack of enthusiasm for the Conservative cause that proved to be important when their campaign was put under strain.

    But then came Copeland, and the Conservatives' local by-election performance was transformed, and the local elections in May were excellent.

    Even if leads of 20% were froth, I think the Conservatives really were leading by double digits at the start of the campaign, and then threw it away.
    The curious thing about the locals vs the GE, to me, was that the LDs did very well in vote share in the locals, but disastrously in terms of seats. In the GE, that was reversed: they did disastrously in terms of vote share, but very well in terms of seats.
    12 seats is a good return for 7.6%, but it's still pretty dismal.

    The number of realistic targets for the Lib Dems has fallen. Some of the Tory majorities in seats that were recently held by the Lib Dems, or were very marginal, are now enormous,
    Hell, the LibDems aren't even the challengers in a lot of those seats anymore.

    I was astonished in the last thread to see that Labour are now second in Newton Abbot.
    Newton Abbot marks my (currently) most westward advance down the Southwest Main Line railway (since October).
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    rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,918
    Scott_P said:

    rkrkrk said:

    It's amazing.
    The case for Trump's defence is now:

    Yes the Russians did hack Hilary's campaign. And yes we went to meetings and tried to collude to subvert democracy. But we met the wrong Russians who didn't have useful information so we were unsuccessful.

    Actually that seems to be Trump Jr's defence.

    I think Trump Sr is still claiming "I didn't know about it"
    Fair point
  • Options
    rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,918

    rkrkrk said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Scott_P said:

    Is Donald Trump Jr admitting to potentially unwise activity live on Twitter?

    It's amazing.
    The case for Trump's defence is now:

    Yes the Russians did hack Hilary's campaign. And yes we went to meetings and tried to collude to subvert democracy. But we met the wrong Russians who didn't have useful information so we were unsuccessful.
    The Russian subversion was SO successful that Hillary actually WON the popular vote :)
    Oh whether it was successful or not is hardly the point...

    The point is that working with a hostile country to spy on your opponents is wrong!
    Maybe the Russians actually wanted Hillary to win?
    Think you're confused.... Or trying to confuse me.
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    DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300

    rkrkrk said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Scott_P said:

    Is Donald Trump Jr admitting to potentially unwise activity live on Twitter?

    It's amazing.
    The case for Trump's defence is now:

    Yes the Russians did hack Hilary's campaign. And yes we went to meetings and tried to collude to subvert democracy. But we met the wrong Russians who didn't have useful information so we were unsuccessful.
    The Russian subversion was SO successful that Hillary actually WON the popular vote :)
    Oh whether it was successful or not is hardly the point...

    The point is that working with a hostile country to spy on your opponents is wrong!
    Maybe the Russians actually wanted Hillary to win?
    No the Russians wanted Trump but there is an additional reason rarely mentioned -- Trump hates China. There are decades old videos of Trump blaming China for the fall of America. And China is a huge military and economic threat to Russia.
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    felixfelix Posts: 15,125
    Sean_F said:

    Pulpstar said:

    stevef said:


    Corbyn will get a similar youth vote next time -no doubt still piling up votes in existing seats -but it is unlikely that the Tories will have the same leader, or that any of the other above mentioned conditions will be repeated.

    WRT The Tories & Labour, there is practically no electoral bias in the system right now. A UNS towards Labour (Of 1.15% to equal vote shares) would leave them as a slightly smaller party, but due to the SNP's improved position* it means they are in a superior position to provide the PM on equal vote shares.

    *A collapse in the SNP would benefit SLAB more than SCON, so the prognosis for next PM doesn't change.

    It'd be a weak government mind with support from BOTH the SNP and the Lib Dems needed as things stand. Certainly more shaky than the Con-DUP arrangement.
    Only Scottish Labour gains from the Conservatives matter. If they gain from the SNP, it makes no difference to their prospect of forming a government.
    I suspect they are unlikely whereas on current trends [ which of course may change] there are 5/6 more potential Scon gains from a weaker SNP.
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,430
    rkrkrk said:

    rkrkrk said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Scott_P said:

    Is Donald Trump Jr admitting to potentially unwise activity live on Twitter?

    It's amazing.
    The case for Trump's defence is now:

    Yes the Russians did hack Hilary's campaign. And yes we went to meetings and tried to collude to subvert democracy. But we met the wrong Russians who didn't have useful information so we were unsuccessful.
    The Russian subversion was SO successful that Hillary actually WON the popular vote :)
    Oh whether it was successful or not is hardly the point...

    The point is that working with a hostile country to spy on your opponents is wrong!
    Maybe the Russians actually wanted Hillary to win?
    Think you're confused.... Or trying to confuse me.
    Easy: The Russians used their evil mind-control ray to befuddle the US electorate, forcing them to give Hillary the popular vote.
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,953
    Danny565 said:

    Sean_F said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sean_F said:

    One point to note. For months in advance of the general election, the Conservatives' performance in local by-elections had been decidedly ho-hum. This was dismissed as irrelevant by those pbers who were uber-loyalist to the blue cause. But it seems to have foreshadowed a lack of enthusiasm for the Conservative cause that proved to be important when their campaign was put under strain.

    But then came Copeland, and the Conservatives' local by-election performance was transformed, and the local elections in May were excellent.

    Even if leads of 20% were froth, I think the Conservatives really were leading by double digits at the start of the campaign, and then threw it away.
    The curious thing about the locals vs the GE, to me, was that the LDs did very well in vote share in the locals, but disastrously in terms of seats. In the GE, that was reversed: they did disastrously in terms of vote share, but very well in terms of seats.
    12 seats is a good return for 7.6%, but it's still pretty dismal.

    The number of realistic targets for the Lib Dems has fallen. Some of the Tory majorities in seats that were recently held by the Lib Dems, or were very marginal, are now enormous,
    Hell, the LibDems aren't even the challengers in a lot of those seats anymore.

    I was astonished in the last thread to see that Labour are now second in Newton Abbot.
    As well as West Devon, Totnes, St. Austell, SE Cornwall, Camborne.
  • Options
    PeterCPeterC Posts: 1,274
    Sean_F said:

    madmacs said:

    Absolutely correct. Tory MPs in Gloucestershire flocked to Cheltenham, including the MP for Stroud. The nay seat in the county to change hands - Stroud, where the Labour tsunami went undetected until too late.

    In fairness, campaigning in Cheltenham made sense.
    The Tories need to change just about everything. But that said, after an election with worst leader ever, the worst campaign in the history of elections and the most appalling manifesto ever written they still just managed to scrape it!
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @juliamacfarlane: One freelance journalist despairs over Don Jr's smoking gun tweet: https://twitter.com/JYSexton/status/884799323606847489
  • Options
    David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    It is strange that it was the ABC1 group that were taken in by the offer of free stuff and a magic money tree in the Labour manifesto - not the C2 DE group.

    Is this poor numeracy amongst the professional class the result of poor education during the Blair years?
  • Options
    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,055
    Sean_F said:

    Danny565 said:

    Sean_F said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sean_F said:

    One point to note. For months in advance of the general election, the Conservatives' performance in local by-elections had been decidedly ho-hum. This was dismissed as irrelevant by those pbers who were uber-loyalist to the blue cause. But it seems to have foreshadowed a lack of enthusiasm for the Conservative cause that proved to be important when their campaign was put under strain.

    But then came Copeland, and the Conservatives' local by-election performance was transformed, and the local elections in May were excellent.

    Even if leads of 20% were froth, I think the Conservatives really were leading by double digits at the start of the campaign, and then threw it away.
    The curious thing about the locals vs the GE, to me, was that the LDs did very well in vote share in the locals, but disastrously in terms of seats. In the GE, that was reversed: they did disastrously in terms of vote share, but very well in terms of seats.
    12 seats is a good return for 7.6%, but it's still pretty dismal.

    The number of realistic targets for the Lib Dems has fallen. Some of the Tory majorities in seats that were recently held by the Lib Dems, or were very marginal, are now enormous,
    Hell, the LibDems aren't even the challengers in a lot of those seats anymore.

    I was astonished in the last thread to see that Labour are now second in Newton Abbot.
    As well as West Devon, Totnes, St. Austell, SE Cornwall, Camborne.
    I suspect that’s the EU effect. The SW, in spite of having some massive grants was very anti EU.
    Whether that will last or whether we’ve seen a permanent shift I’ll leave others to judge.
  • Options
    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    It is strange that it was the ABC1 group that were taken in by the offer of free stuff and a magic money tree in the Labour manifesto - not the C2 DE group.

    Is this poor numeracy amongst the professional class the result of poor education during the Blair years?

    The Conservatives have trashed their own reputation for sober government. Once they had done that, why wouldn't people vote for what they most liked the sound of, regardless of the cost?
  • Options
    David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506

    Euratom includes Switzerland as an "associate".
    Our atom
    Your atom
    Their atom

    Progression.
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,430

    Sean_F said:

    Danny565 said:

    Sean_F said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sean_F said:

    One point to note. For months in advance of the general election, the Conservatives' performance in local by-elections had been decidedly ho-hum. This was dismissed as irrelevant by those pbers who were uber-loyalist to the blue cause. But it seems to have foreshadowed a lack of enthusiasm for the Conservative cause that proved to be important when their campaign was put under strain.

    But then came Copeland, and the Conservatives' local by-election performance was transformed, and the local elections in May were excellent.

    Even if leads of 20% were froth, I think the Conservatives really were leading by double digits at the start of the campaign, and then threw it away.
    The curious thing about the locals vs the GE, to me, was that the LDs did very well in vote share in the locals, but disastrously in terms of seats. In the GE, that was reversed: they did disastrously in terms of vote share, but very well in terms of seats.
    12 seats is a good return for 7.6%, but it's still pretty dismal.

    The number of realistic targets for the Lib Dems has fallen. Some of the Tory majorities in seats that were recently held by the Lib Dems, or were very marginal, are now enormous,
    Hell, the LibDems aren't even the challengers in a lot of those seats anymore.

    I was astonished in the last thread to see that Labour are now second in Newton Abbot.
    As well as West Devon, Totnes, St. Austell, SE Cornwall, Camborne.
    I suspect that’s the EU effect. The SW, in spite of having some massive grants was very anti EU.
    Whether that will last or whether we’ve seen a permanent shift I’ll leave others to judge.
    The EU as a whole is a net contributor to EU coffers.
  • Options
    David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506

    It is strange that it was the ABC1 group that were taken in by the offer of free stuff and a magic money tree in the Labour manifesto - not the C2 DE group.

    Is this poor numeracy amongst the professional class the result of poor education during the Blair years?

    The Conservatives have trashed their own reputation for sober government. Once they had done that, why wouldn't people vote for what they most liked the sound of, regardless of the cost?
    Because the IMF looms when governments can no longer borrow in the debt markets?
  • Options
    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,786
    edited July 2017

    TOPPING said:

    I mean are we really going to crash out on WTO?

    No can't see it.

    Yes are we.

    The govt is going to carry on twaddling away in fantasy mode about the various Brexit types and arguing about the divorce bill and EU citizens until it runs out of time and we WTO out.

    Then they can moan about the Europeans setting unreasonable timetables and holding things up ("Not our fault Gov'nor"), the EU / UK citizens' standing will still need sorting, no divorce money will have been paid and we will be out.
    That assumes a coherence and will from the government that has been entirely absent up until now. They claim, as far as I can tell genuinely, that something will turn up. Boris Johnson as recently as today.
    RobD said:

    Institute for Government chart and on U.K. vs EU citizens proposals:

    https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/brexit-explained/citizens-rights

    Looks like there needs to be a little movement on both sides

    The UK and EU proposals aren't actually that far apart.
    I disagree. The positions on citizens' rights are quite far apart. It doesn't mean they won't be bridged.
  • Options
    rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,918

    rkrkrk said:

    rkrkrk said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Scott_P said:

    Is Donald Trump Jr admitting to potentially unwise activity live on Twitter?

    It's amazing.
    The case for Trump's defence is now:

    Yes the Russians did hack Hilary's campaign. And yes we went to meetings and tried to collude to subvert democracy. But we met the wrong Russians who didn't have useful information so we were unsuccessful.
    The Russian subversion was SO successful that Hillary actually WON the popular vote :)
    Oh whether it was successful or not is hardly the point...

    The point is that working with a hostile country to spy on your opponents is wrong!
    Maybe the Russians actually wanted Hillary to win?
    Think you're confused.... Or trying to confuse me.
    Easy: The Russians used their evil mind-control ray to befuddle the US electorate, forcing them to give Hillary the popular vote.
    https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.washingtonpost.com/amphtml/world/national-security/obama-orders-review-of-russian-hacking-during-presidential-campaign/2016/12/09/31d6b300-be2a-11e6-94ac-3d324840106c_story.html
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,953

    Sean_F said:

    Danny565 said:

    Sean_F said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sean_F said:

    One point to note. For months in advance of the general election, the Conservatives' performance in local by-elections had been decidedly ho-hum. This was dismissed as irrelevant by those pbers who were uber-loyalist to the blue cause. But it seems to have foreshadowed a lack of enthusiasm for the Conservative cause that proved to be important when their campaign was put under strain.

    But then came Copeland, and the Conservatives' local by-election performance was transformed, and the local elections in May were excellent.

    Even if leads of 20% were froth, I think the Conservatives really were leading by double digits at the start of the campaign, and then threw it away.
    The curious thing about the locals vs the GE, to me, was that the LDs did very well in vote share in the locals, but disastrously in terms of seats. In the GE, that was reversed: they did disastrously in terms of vote share, but very well in terms of seats.
    12 seats is a good return for 7.6%, but it's still pretty dismal.

    The number of realistic targets for the Lib Dems has fallen. Some of the Tory majorities in seats that were recently held by the Lib Dems, or were very marginal, are now enormous,
    Hell, the LibDems aren't even the challengers in a lot of those seats anymore.

    I was astonished in the last thread to see that Labour are now second in Newton Abbot.
    As well as West Devon, Totnes, St. Austell, SE Cornwall, Camborne.
    I suspect that’s the EU effect. The SW, in spite of having some massive grants was very anti EU.
    Whether that will last or whether we’ve seen a permanent shift I’ll leave others to judge.
    I think there was a close correlation in the SW between strong Conservative performances and support for Brexit. Cornwall, rural Devon (and working class Plymouth) rural Dorset and Somerset, mostly gave storming results to the Conservatives. Exeter, student Plymouth, Bath, and Bristol all shifted heavily Left.
  • Options
    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    It is strange that it was the ABC1 group that were taken in by the offer of free stuff and a magic money tree in the Labour manifesto - not the C2 DE group.

    Is this poor numeracy amongst the professional class the result of poor education during the Blair years?

    The Conservatives have trashed their own reputation for sober government. Once they had done that, why wouldn't people vote for what they most liked the sound of, regardless of the cost?
    Because the IMF looms when governments can no longer borrow in the debt markets?
    I refer you to my first point. Once the Conservatives had decided to pursue extreme Brexit, anyone not in favour of that is up for grabs. You might as well drink yourself to death instead of being strung up by your genitals.
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,430
    rkrkrk said:

    rkrkrk said:

    rkrkrk said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Scott_P said:

    Is Donald Trump Jr admitting to potentially unwise activity live on Twitter?

    It's amazing.
    The case for Trump's defence is now:

    Yes the Russians did hack Hilary's campaign. And yes we went to meetings and tried to collude to subvert democracy. But we met the wrong Russians who didn't have useful information so we were unsuccessful.
    The Russian subversion was SO successful that Hillary actually WON the popular vote :)
    Oh whether it was successful or not is hardly the point...

    The point is that working with a hostile country to spy on your opponents is wrong!
    Maybe the Russians actually wanted Hillary to win?
    Think you're confused.... Or trying to confuse me.
    Easy: The Russians used their evil mind-control ray to befuddle the US electorate, forcing them to give Hillary the popular vote.
    https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.washingtonpost.com/amphtml/world/national-security/obama-orders-review-of-russian-hacking-during-presidential-campaign/2016/12/09/31d6b300-be2a-11e6-94ac-3d324840106c_story.html
    If this hacking occurred, how come Hillary won the popular vote?
  • Options
    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,055

    Sean_F said:

    Danny565 said:

    Sean_F said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sean_F said:

    One point to note. For months in advance of the general election, the Conservatives' performance in local by-elections had been decidedly ho-hum. This was dismissed as irrelevant by those pbers who were uber-loyalist to the blue cause. But it seems to have foreshadowed a lack of enthusiasm for the Conservative cause that proved to be important when their campaign was put under strain.

    But then came Copeland, and the Conservatives' local by-election performance was transformed, and the local elections in May were excellent.

    Even if leads of 20% were froth, I think the Conservatives really were leading by double digits at the start of the campaign, and then threw it away.
    The curious thing about the locals vs the GE, to me, was that the LDs did very well in vote share in the locals, but disastrously in terms of seats. In the GE, that was reversed: they did disastrously in terms of vote share, but very well in terms of seats.
    12 seats is a good return for 7.6%, but it's still pretty dismal.

    The number of realistic targets for the Lib Dems has fallen. Some of the Tory majorities in seats that were recently held by the Lib Dems, or were very marginal, are now enormous,
    Hell, the LibDems aren't even the challengers in a lot of those seats anymore.

    I was astonished in the last thread to see that Labour are now second in Newton Abbot.
    As well as West Devon, Totnes, St. Austell, SE Cornwall, Camborne.
    I suspect that’s the EU effect. The SW, in spite of having some massive grants was very anti EU.
    Whether that will last or whether we’ve seen a permanent shift I’ll leave others to judge.
    The EU as a whole is a net contributor to EU coffers.
    Which train were you on when you wrote that? Obviously a very shaky one!
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @MartinBelam: Imagine Watergate. But one of Nixon's kids kept uploading all the tapes to Soundcloud
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,787

    Davis: If American banks want to relocate to Paris or Frankfurt good luck to them.

    Baroness Kennedy was (unusually) a waffly mess - Davis saw her off with ease - then after that tried a 'how many women are on your team - you don't know? Disgraceful!' as the chairman was closing proceedings....
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,787

    It is strange that it was the ABC1 group that were taken in by the offer of free stuff and a magic money tree in the Labour manifesto - not the C2 DE group.

    Is this poor numeracy amongst the professional class the result of poor education during the Blair years?

    The Conservatives have trashed their own reputation for sober government. Once they had done that, why wouldn't people vote for what they most liked the sound of, regardless of the cost?
    Because the IMF looms when governments can no longer borrow in the debt markets?
    Once the Conservatives had decided to pursue extreme Brexit
    Define 'extreme Brexit'
  • Options
    GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071

    Sean_F said:

    Danny565 said:

    Sean_F said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sean_F said:

    One point to note. For months in advance of the general election, the Conservatives' performance in local by-elections had been decidedly ho-hum. This was dismissed as irrelevant by those pbers who were uber-loyalist to the blue cause. But it seems to have foreshadowed a lack of enthusiasm for the Conservative cause that proved to be important when their campaign was put under strain.

    But then came Copeland, and the Conservatives' local by-election performance was transformed, and the local elections in May were excellent.

    Even if leads of 20% were froth, I think the Conservatives really were leading by double digits at the start of the campaign, and then threw it away.
    The curious thing about the locals vs the GE, to me, was that the LDs did very well in vote share in the locals, but disastrously in terms of seats. In the GE, that was reversed: they did disastrously in terms of vote share, but very well in terms of seats.
    12 seats is a good return for 7.6%, but it's still pretty dismal.

    The number of realistic targets for the Lib Dems has fallen. Some of the Tory majorities in seats that were recently held by the Lib Dems, or were very marginal, are now enormous,
    Hell, the LibDems aren't even the challengers in a lot of those seats anymore.

    I was astonished in the last thread to see that Labour are now second in Newton Abbot.
    As well as West Devon, Totnes, St. Austell, SE Cornwall, Camborne.
    I suspect that’s the EU effect. The SW, in spite of having some massive grants was very anti EU.
    Whether that will last or whether we’ve seen a permanent shift I’ll leave others to judge.
    Massive grants??

    As net contributors we just got a percentage of our own money back.

    ...and we then had to stick a 12-star sign on all of the projects we funded ourselves to show how grateful we were.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,990

    Davis: If American banks want to relocate to Paris or Frankfurt good luck to them.

    Baroness Kennedy was (unusually) a waffly mess - Davis saw her off with ease - then after that tried a 'how many women are on your team - you don't know? Disgraceful!' as the chairman was closing proceedings....
    I assume all were selected based on merits.
  • Options
    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    It is strange that it was the ABC1 group that were taken in by the offer of free stuff and a magic money tree in the Labour manifesto - not the C2 DE group.

    Is this poor numeracy amongst the professional class the result of poor education during the Blair years?

    The Conservatives have trashed their own reputation for sober government. Once they had done that, why wouldn't people vote for what they most liked the sound of, regardless of the cost?
    Because the IMF looms when governments can no longer borrow in the debt markets?
    Once the Conservatives had decided to pursue extreme Brexit
    Define 'extreme Brexit'
    Summed up in two Prime Ministerial phrases:

    "No deal is better than a bad deal"
    "Citizens of nowhere"
  • Options
    rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,918

    rkrkrk said:

    rkrkrk said:

    rkrkrk said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Scott_P said:

    Is Donald Trump Jr admitting to potentially unwise activity live on Twitter?

    It's amazing.
    The case for Trump's defence is now:

    Yes the Russians did hack Hilary's campaign. And yes we went to meetings and tried to collude to subvert democracy. But we met the wrong Russians who didn't have useful information so we were unsuccessful.
    The Russian subversion was SO successful that Hillary actually WON the popular vote :)
    Oh whether it was successful or not is hardly the point...

    The point is that working with a hostile country to spy on your opponents is wrong!
    Maybe the Russians actually wanted Hillary to win?
    Think you're confused.... Or trying to confuse me.
    Easy: The Russians used their evil mind-control ray to befuddle the US electorate, forcing them to give Hillary the popular vote.
    https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.washingtonpost.com/amphtml/world/national-security/obama-orders-review-of-russian-hacking-during-presidential-campaign/2016/12/09/31d6b300-be2a-11e6-94ac-3d324840106c_story.html
    If this hacking occurred, how come Hillary won the popular vote?
    Because more people voted for her!?

    Just because you try to influence an election illegally - doesn't mean you will succeed in winning the popular vote.

    If I bring the ref of a football match to give me a penalty, and then still lose the game, it doesn't mean I didn't cheat.
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,787

    It is strange that it was the ABC1 group that were taken in by the offer of free stuff and a magic money tree in the Labour manifesto - not the C2 DE group.

    Is this poor numeracy amongst the professional class the result of poor education during the Blair years?

    The Conservatives have trashed their own reputation for sober government. Once they had done that, why wouldn't people vote for what they most liked the sound of, regardless of the cost?
    Because the IMF looms when governments can no longer borrow in the debt markets?
    Once the Conservatives had decided to pursue extreme Brexit
    Define 'extreme Brexit'
    Summed up in two Prime Ministerial phrases:

    "No deal is better than a bad deal"
    "Citizens of nowhere"
    Cop out - what does not extreme Brexit look like?
  • Options
    GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071

    It is strange that it was the ABC1 group that were taken in by the offer of free stuff and a magic money tree in the Labour manifesto - not the C2 DE group.

    Is this poor numeracy amongst the professional class the result of poor education during the Blair years?

    The Conservatives have trashed their own reputation for sober government. Once they had done that, why wouldn't people vote for what they most liked the sound of, regardless of the cost?
    Because the IMF looms when governments can no longer borrow in the debt markets?
    Once the Conservatives had decided to pursue extreme Brexit
    Define 'extreme Brexit'
    Summed up in two Prime Ministerial phrases:

    "No deal is better than a bad deal"
    "Citizens of nowhere"
    Ah, the Brexit I voted for then.
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,900
    edited July 2017
    Scott_P said:

    Is Donald Trump Jr admitting to potentially unwise activity live on Twitter?

    I get the feeling Don Jr could be a bit of a dim-wit.

    Ivanka however seems to be a very smart lady...
  • Options
    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,786
    FF43 said:

    I disagree. The positions on citizens' rights are quite far apart. It doesn't mean they won't be bridged.

    If you break the negotiations down to qualification for the status, benefits accruing from it and guarantees, the two sides are close on benefits, far apart on qualification and the UK is essentially offering no guarantees at all.

  • Options
    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    It is strange that it was the ABC1 group that were taken in by the offer of free stuff and a magic money tree in the Labour manifesto - not the C2 DE group.

    Is this poor numeracy amongst the professional class the result of poor education during the Blair years?

    The Conservatives have trashed their own reputation for sober government. Once they had done that, why wouldn't people vote for what they most liked the sound of, regardless of the cost?
    Because the IMF looms when governments can no longer borrow in the debt markets?
    Once the Conservatives had decided to pursue extreme Brexit
    Define 'extreme Brexit'
    Summed up in two Prime Ministerial phrases:

    "No deal is better than a bad deal"
    "Citizens of nowhere"
    Cop out - what does not extreme Brexit look like?
    It means accepting that compromise is going to be essential and being welcoming to those with outlooks that differ from Mrs May's bumpkinocracy rather than stigmatising them.

    But evidently the Conservatives have decided that there are more votes in being provincial and unpleasant to those with a more international outlook. They can hardly complain when those who feel differently vote differently.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,990
    GeoffM said:

    Sean_F said:

    Danny565 said:

    Sean_F said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sean_F said:

    One point to note. For months in advance of the general election, the Conservatives' performance in local by-elections had been decidedly ho-hum. This was dismissed as irrelevant by those pbers who were uber-loyalist to the blue cause. But it seems to have foreshadowed a lack of enthusiasm for the Conservative cause that proved to be important when their campaign was put under strain.

    But then came Copeland, and the Conservatives' local by-election performance was transformed, and the local elections in May were excellent.

    Even if leads of 20% were froth, I think the Conservatives really were leading by double digits at the start of the campaign, and then threw it away.
    The curious thing about the locals vs the GE, to me, was that the LDs did very well in vote share in the locals, but disastrously in terms of seats. In the GE, that was reversed: they did disastrously in terms of vote share, but very well in terms of seats.
    12 seats is a good return for 7.6%, but it's still pretty dismal.

    The number of realistic targets for the Lib Dems has fallen. Some of the Tory majorities in seats that were recently held by the Lib Dems, or were very marginal, are now enormous,
    Hell, the LibDems aren't even the challengers in a lot of those seats anymore.

    I was astonished in the last thread to see that Labour are now second in Newton Abbot.
    As well as West Devon, Totnes, St. Austell, SE Cornwall, Camborne.
    I suspect that’s the EU effect. The SW, in spite of having some massive grants was very anti EU.
    Whether that will last or whether we’ve seen a permanent shift I’ll leave others to judge.
    Massive grants??

    As net contributors we just got a percentage of our own money back.

    ...and we then had to stick a 12-star sign on all of the projects we funded ourselves to show how grateful we were.
    Yeah, they should really be called 'partial refunds' rather than grants. :p
  • Options
    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,055
    GeoffM said:

    Sean_F said:

    Danny565 said:

    Sean_F said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sean_F said:

    One point to note. For months in advance of the general election, the Conservatives' performance in local by-elections had been decidedly ho-hum. This was dismissed as irrelevant by those pbers who were uber-loyalist to the blue cause. But it seems to have foreshadowed a lack of enthusiasm for the Conservative cause that proved to be important when their campaign was put under strain.

    But then came Copeland, and the Conservatives' local by-election performance was transformed, and the local elections in May were excellent.

    Even if leads of 20% were froth, I think the Conservatives really were leading by double digits at the start of the campaign, and then threw it away.
    The curious thing about the locals vs the GE, to me, was that the LDs did very well in vote share in the locals, but disastrously in terms of seats. In the GE, that was reversed: they did disastrously in terms of vote share, but very well in terms of seats.
    12 seats is a good return for 7.6%, but it's still pretty dismal.

    The number of realistic targets for the Lib Dems has fallen. Some of the Tory majorities in seats that were recently held by the Lib Dems, or were very marginal, are now enormous,
    Hell, the LibDems aren't even the challengers in a lot of those seats anymore.

    I was astonished in the last thread to see that Labour are now second in Newton Abbot.
    As well as West Devon, Totnes, St. Austell, SE Cornwall, Camborne.
    I suspect that’s the EU effect. The SW, in spite of having some massive grants was very anti EU.
    Whether that will last or whether we’ve seen a permanent shift I’ll leave others to judge.
    Massive grants??

    As net contributors we just got a percentage of our own money back.

    ...and we then had to stick a 12-star sign on all of the projects we funded ourselves to show how grateful we were.
    These were grants for things that the British Government didn’t/didn’t want to fund.
    But then I still hope that we’ll reverse last June’s insane decision and you think it was a great idea.
  • Options
    Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    edited July 2017

    It is strange that it was the ABC1 group that were taken in by the offer of free stuff and a magic money tree in the Labour manifesto - not the C2 DE group.

    Is this poor numeracy amongst the professional class the result of poor education during the Blair years?

    The Conservatives have trashed their own reputation for sober government. Once they had done that, why wouldn't people vote for what they most liked the sound of, regardless of the cost?
    Because the IMF looms when governments can no longer borrow in the debt markets?
    Once the Conservatives had decided to pursue extreme Brexit
    Define 'extreme Brexit'
    Summed up in two Prime Ministerial phrases:

    "No deal is better than a bad deal"
    "Citizens of nowhere"
    Cop out - what does not extreme Brexit look like?
    One where "no deal" is not seriously contemplated, where there's not constant moronic and offensive outbursts from Boris, and where there isn't a fetishisation of being free from the ECJ, even when that wasn't one of the main reasons that people voted to Leave (whereas immigration clearly was one of the main reasons).
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,787
    Donald Trump Jr's first call after he was allegedly offered information on Hillary Clinton by a Russia-linked lawyer should have been to the FBI, a former White House ethics lawyer has said.

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/donald-trump-jr-russian-lawyer-meeting-ex-bush-ethics-lawyer-loyal-american-called-fbi-hilary-a7835211.html
  • Options
    rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,918
    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_P said:

    Is Donald Trump Jr admitting to potentially unwise activity live on Twitter?

    I get the feeling Don Jr could be a bit of a dim-wit.

    Ivanka however seems to be a very smart lady...
    Seems like Don Jr was told they had the emails and so decided to publish them himself.
    Removes a level of deniability... But maybe not the dumbest move? Onto the front foot. Can claim being open about the affair.
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,430

    GeoffM said:

    Sean_F said:

    Danny565 said:

    Sean_F said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sean_F said:

    One point to note. For months in advance of the general election, the Conservatives' performance in local by-elections had been decidedly ho-hum. This was dismissed as irrelevant by those pbers who were uber-loyalist to the blue cause. But it seems to have foreshadowed a lack of enthusiasm for the Conservative cause that proved to be important when their campaign was put under strain.

    But then came Copeland, and the Conservatives' local by-election performance was transformed, and the local elections in May were excellent.

    Even if leads of 20% were froth, I think the Conservatives really were leading by double digits at the start of the campaign, and then threw it away.
    The curious thing about the locals vs the GE, to me, was that the LDs did very well in vote share in the locals, but disastrously in terms of seats. In the GE, that was reversed: they did disastrously in terms of vote share, but very well in terms of seats.
    12 seats is a good return for 7.6%, but it's still pretty dismal.

    The number of realistic targets for the Lib Dems has fallen. Some of the Tory majorities in seats that were recently held by the Lib Dems, or were very marginal, are now enormous,
    Hell, the LibDems aren't even the challengers in a lot of those seats anymore.

    I was astonished in the last thread to see that Labour are now second in Newton Abbot.
    As well as West Devon, Totnes, St. Austell, SE Cornwall, Camborne.
    I suspect that’s the EU effect. The SW, in spite of having some massive grants was very anti EU.
    Whether that will last or whether we’ve seen a permanent shift I’ll leave others to judge.
    Massive grants??

    As net contributors we just got a percentage of our own money back.

    ...and we then had to stick a 12-star sign on all of the projects we funded ourselves to show how grateful we were.
    These were grants for things that the British Government didn’t/didn’t want to fund.
    But then I still hope that we’ll reverse last June’s insane decision and you think it was a great idea.
    Why is not OK to "send" £1 billion over two years to Northern Ireland (who are, after all, UK citizens!), but perfectly OK to send £8.5 billion (net) every year to Brussels?
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,990

    GeoffM said:

    Sean_F said:

    Danny565 said:

    Sean_F said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sean_F said:

    One point to note. For months in advance of the general election, the Conservatives' performance in local by-elections had been decidedly ho-hum. This was dismissed as irrelevant by those pbers who were uber-loyalist to the blue cause. But it seems to have foreshadowed a lack of enthusiasm for the Conservative cause that proved to be important when their campaign was put under strain.

    But then came Copeland, and the Conservatives' local by-election performance was transformed, and the local elections in May were excellent.

    Even if leads of 20% were froth, I think the Conservatives really were leading by double digits at the start of the campaign, and then threw it away.
    The curious thing about the locals vs the GE, to me, was that the LDs did very well in vote share in the locals, but disastrously in terms of seats. In the GE, that was reversed: they did disastrously in terms of vote share, but very well in terms of seats.
    12 seats is a good return for 7.6%, but it's still pretty dismal.

    The number of realistic targets for the Lib Dems has fallen. Some of the Tory majorities in seats that were recently held by the Lib Dems, or were very marginal, are now enormous,
    Hell, the LibDems aren't even the challengers in a lot of those seats anymore.

    I was astonished in the last thread to see that Labour are now second in Newton Abbot.
    As well as West Devon, Totnes, St. Austell, SE Cornwall, Camborne.
    I suspect that’s the EU effect. The SW, in spite of having some massive grants was very anti EU.
    Whether that will last or whether we’ve seen a permanent shift I’ll leave others to judge.
    Massive grants??

    As net contributors we just got a percentage of our own money back.

    ...and we then had to stick a 12-star sign on all of the projects we funded ourselves to show how grateful we were.
    These were grants for things that the British Government didn’t/didn’t want to fund.
    But then I still hope that we’ll reverse last June’s insane decision and you think it was a great idea.
    Why would they if the EU will do it?
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,787

    It is strange that it was the ABC1 group that were taken in by the offer of free stuff and a magic money tree in the Labour manifesto - not the C2 DE group.

    Is this poor numeracy amongst the professional class the result of poor education during the Blair years?

    The Conservatives have trashed their own reputation for sober government. Once they had done that, why wouldn't people vote for what they most liked the sound of, regardless of the cost?
    Because the IMF looms when governments can no longer borrow in the debt markets?
    Once the Conservatives had decided to pursue extreme Brexit
    Define 'extreme Brexit'
    Summed up in two Prime Ministerial phrases:

    "No deal is better than a bad deal"
    "Citizens of nowhere"
    Cop out - what does not extreme Brexit look like?
    It means accepting that compromise is going to be essential and being welcoming to those with outlooks that differ from Mrs May's bumpkinocracy rather than stigmatising them.
    So you can't describe it.....thanks for clearing that up.
  • Options
    GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071

    It is strange that it was the ABC1 group that were taken in by the offer of free stuff and a magic money tree in the Labour manifesto - not the C2 DE group.

    Is this poor numeracy amongst the professional class the result of poor education during the Blair years?

    The Conservatives have trashed their own reputation for sober government. Once they had done that, why wouldn't people vote for what they most liked the sound of, regardless of the cost?
    Because the IMF looms when governments can no longer borrow in the debt markets?
    Once the Conservatives had decided to pursue extreme Brexit
    Define 'extreme Brexit'
    Summed up in two Prime Ministerial phrases:

    "No deal is better than a bad deal"
    "Citizens of nowhere"
    Cop out - what does not extreme Brexit look like?
    It means accepting that compromise is going to be essential and being welcoming to those with outlooks that differ from Mrs May's bumpkinocracy rather than stigmatising them.

    But evidently the Conservatives have decided that there are more votes in being provincial and unpleasant to those with a more international outlook. They can hardly complain when those who feel differently vote differently.
    The EU is the provincial and shrinking option.

    Adding the other 88% of the world population to that previous narrow view is the international outward looking choice that we've rightly made.
  • Options
    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    It is strange that it was the ABC1 group that were taken in by the offer of free stuff and a magic money tree in the Labour manifesto - not the C2 DE group.

    Is this poor numeracy amongst the professional class the result of poor education during the Blair years?

    The Conservatives have trashed their own reputation for sober government. Once they had done that, why wouldn't people vote for what they most liked the sound of, regardless of the cost?
    Because the IMF looms when governments can no longer borrow in the debt markets?
    Once the Conservatives had decided to pursue extreme Brexit
    Define 'extreme Brexit'
    Summed up in two Prime Ministerial phrases:

    "No deal is better than a bad deal"
    "Citizens of nowhere"
    Cop out - what does not extreme Brexit look like?
    It means accepting that compromise is going to be essential and being welcoming to those with outlooks that differ from Mrs May's bumpkinocracy rather than stigmatising them.
    So you can't describe it.....thanks for clearing that up.
    I'm sorry that you're unable to read. I wouldn't be flaunting that though if I were you.
  • Options
    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,055
    edited July 2017

    GeoffM said:

    Sean_F said:

    Danny565 said:

    Sean_F said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sean_F said:

    One point to note. For months in advance of the general election, the Conservatives' performance in local by-elections had been decidedly ho-hum. This was dismissed as irrelevant by those pbers who were uber-loyalist to the blue cause. But it seems to have foreshadowed a lack of enthusiasm for the Conservative cause that proved to be important when their campaign was put under strain.

    But then came Copeland, and the Conservatives' local by-election performance was transformed, and the local elections in May were excellent.

    Even if leads of 20% were froth, I think the Conservatives really were leading by double digits at the start of the campaign, and then threw it away.
    The curious thing about the locals vs the GE, to me, was that the LDs did very well in vote share in the locals, but disastrously in terms of seats. In the GE, that was reversed: they did disastrously in terms of vote share, but very well in terms of seats.
    12 seats is a good return for 7.6%, but it's still pretty dismal.

    The number of realistic targets for the Lib Dems has fallen. Some of the Tory majorities in seats that were recently held by the Lib Dems, or were very marginal, are now enormous,
    Hell, the LibDems aren't even the challengers in a lot of those seats anymore.

    I was astonished in the last thread to see that Labour are now second in Newton Abbot.
    As well as West Devon, Totnes, St. Austell, SE Cornwall, Camborne.
    I suspect that’s the EU effect. The SW, in spite of having some massive grants was very anti EU.
    Whether that will last or whether we’ve seen a permanent shift I’ll leave others to judge.
    Massive grants??

    As net contributors we just got a percentage of our own money back.

    ...and we then had to stick a 12-star sign on all of the projects we funded ourselves to show how grateful we were.
    These were grants for things that the British Government didn’t/didn’t want to fund.
    But then I still hope that we’ll reverse last June’s insane decision and you think it was a great idea.
    Why is not OK to "send" £1 billion over two years to Northern Ireland (who are, after all, UK citizens!), but perfectly OK to send £8.5 billion (net) every year to Brussels?
    When did I say it wasn’t? The people of N Ireland have been badly governed for years and if we’re putting right wrongs I’m all for it.
This discussion has been closed.