politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » As the DUP prepare to back CON on the Queen’s speech here’s th

Sean_F said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Regarding the Samurai Sword, I guess you lot have never heard of cosplay?

If you do a google image search of 'cosplay' you might get an idea.

Thanks. I can't say I'm much the wiser.

Cosplay = Costume Play

The practice of dressing up as a character from a film, book, or video game, especially one from the Japanese genres of manga or anime.

Yeah, but what's the sex bit, if that's not a question which shouldn't be answered on a respectable website?

The sex bit is if you fantasise about sex with Togukawa Ieyashu. Presumably, if you fantasised about sex with Caesar, your partner would dress up as a Roman.

Bobajob_PB said:

Sean_F said:

Lucian_Fletcher said:

rcs1000 said:

Lucian_Fletcher said:

Not unless there's significant changes to the NI proposals after public consultation is completed. As they stand, the proposed NI boundaries are simply appalling for Unionism.

Just as a matter of interest, what is the approximate unionist / nationalist split in Northern Ireland?

There's a Unionist plurality (though no longer a majority). But it's not huge.

What is clearly the case is that those born into shall we say a Nationalist background are entering the voting demographic at a faster rate than those from without.

The total Unionist vote share has fallen below 50 per cent and I contend is unlikely to ever get back there (if it did, it would be temporarily because Alliance falls away).

Unionism needs to appeal beyond it's core to deliver Northern Ireland through and beyond 2030.

I don't think it can while it remains dominated by the DUP. But that's a story for another thread (or a speech/platform).

I should not be too pessimistic. In 1997, the Nationalist vote share was 40.2%. In 2010 it was 42%. In 2017, it was 41.1%. The Unionist vote share was 50.4%, 50.5%, and 49.5%. That seems pretty stable to me.

The future of the island of Ireland is as a unified, secular nonsectarian state. Northern Ireland is a geopolitical absurdity, born of a fractional and ever diminishing majority and ramped up by a handful of bigoted reactionaries. They are swimming against a demographic tide, thankfully.

GeoffM said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Regarding the Samurai Sword, I guess you lot have never heard of cosplay?

If you do a google image search of 'cosplay' you might get an idea.

*** Doing this at your desk may not enhance your career prospects ***

RobD said:

Bobajob_PB said:

Sean_F said:

Lucian_Fletcher said:

rcs1000 said:

Lucian_Fletcher said:

Not unless there's significant changes to the NI proposals after public consultation is completed. As they stand, the proposed NI boundaries are simply appalling for Unionism.

Just as a matter of interest, what is the approximate unionist / nationalist split in Northern Ireland?

There's a Unionist plurality (though no longer a majority). But it's not huge.

What is clearly the case is that those born into shall we say a Nationalist background are entering the voting demographic at a faster rate than those from without.

The total Unionist vote share has fallen below 50 per cent and I contend is unlikely to ever get back there (if it did, it would be temporarily because Alliance falls away).

Unionism needs to appeal beyond it's core to deliver Northern Ireland through and beyond 2030.

I don't think it can while it remains dominated by the DUP. But that's a story for another thread (or a speech/platform).

I should not be too pessimistic. In 1997, the Nationalist vote share was 40.2%. In 2010 it was 42%. In 2017, it was 41.1%. The Unionist vote share was 50.4%, 50.5%, and 49.5%. That seems pretty stable to me.

The future of the island of Ireland is as a unified, secular nonsectarian state. Northern Ireland is a geopolitical absurdity, born of a fractional and ever diminishing majority and ramped up by a handful of bigoted reactionaries. They are swimming against a demographic tide, thankfully.

There has been very little change in support for a unification over the years, and it is far lower than the nationalist vote share.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Ireland#Public_opinion

RobD said:

Bobajob_PB said:

Sean_F said:

Lucian_Fletcher said:

rcs1000 said:

Lucian_Fletcher said:

Not unless there's significant changes to the NI proposals after public consultation is completed. As they stand, the proposed NI boundaries are simply appalling for Unionism.

Just as a matter of interest, what is the approximate unionist / nationalist split in Northern Ireland?

There's a Unionist plurality (though no longer a majority). But it's not huge.

What is clearly the case is that those born into shall we say a Nationalist background are entering the voting demographic at a faster rate than those from without.

The total Unionist vote share has fallen below 50 per cent and I contend is unlikely to ever get back there (if it did, it would be temporarily because Alliance falls away).

Unionism needs to appeal beyond it's core to deliver Northern Ireland through and beyond 2030.

I don't think it can while it remains dominated by the DUP. But that's a story for another thread (or a speech/platform).

I should not be too pessimistic. In 1997, the Nationalist vote share was 40.2%. In 2010 it was 42%. In 2017, it was 41.1%. The Unionist vote share was 50.4%, 50.5%, and 49.5%. That seems pretty stable to me.

The future of the island of Ireland is as a unified, secular nonsectarian state. Northern Ireland is a geopolitical absurdity, born of a fractional and ever diminishing majority and ramped up by a handful of bigoted reactionaries. They are swimming against a demographic tide, thankfully.

There has been very little change in support for a unification over the years, and it is far lower than the nationalist vote share.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Ireland#Public_opinion

williamglenn said:

Bobajob_PB said:

Sean_F said:

Lucian_Fletcher said:

rcs1000 said:

Lucian_Fletcher said:

Not unless there's significant changes to the NI proposals after public consultation is completed. As they stand, the proposed NI boundaries are simply appalling for Unionism.

Just as a matter of interest, what is the approximate unionist / nationalist split in Northern Ireland?

There's a Unionist plurality (though no longer a majority). But it's not huge.

What is clearly the case is that those born into shall we say a Nationalist background are entering the voting demographic at a faster rate than those from without.

The total Unionist vote share has fallen below 50 per cent and I contend is unlikely to ever get back there (if it did, it would be temporarily because Alliance falls away).

Unionism needs to appeal beyond it's core to deliver Northern Ireland through and beyond 2030.

I don't think it can while it remains dominated by the DUP. But that's a story for another thread (or a speech/platform).

I should not be too pessimistic. In 1997, the Nationalist vote share was 40.2%. In 2010 it was 42%. In 2017, it was 41.1%. The Unionist vote share was 50.4%, 50.5%, and 49.5%. That seems pretty stable to me.

The future of the island of Ireland is as a unified, secular nonsectarian state. Northern Ireland is a geopolitical absurdity, born of a fractional and ever diminishing majority and ramped up by a handful of bigoted reactionaries. They are swimming against a demographic tide, thankfully.

One thing Brexit has done is expose the irredentism of the unionists in both Northern Ireland and England who believe the solution to this absurdity lies in a de facto reversal of Irish independence by breaking it away from the EU. The status quo is becoming unsustainable.

Bobajob_PB said:

RobD said:

Bobajob_PB said:

Sean_F said:

Lucian_Fletcher said:

rcs1000 said:

Lucian_Fletcher said:

Not unless there's significant changes to the NI proposals after public consultation is completed. As they stand, the proposed NI boundaries are simply appalling for Unionism.

Just as a matter of interest, what is the approximate unionist / nationalist split in Northern Ireland?

There's a Unionist plurality (though no longer a majority). But it's not huge.

What is clearly the case is that those born into shall we say a Nationalist background are entering the voting demographic at a faster rate than those from without.

The total Unionist vote share has fallen below 50 per cent and I contend is unlikely to ever get back there (if it did, it would be temporarily because Alliance falls away).

Unionism needs to appeal beyond it's core to deliver Northern Ireland through and beyond 2030.

I don't think it can while it remains dominated by the DUP. But that's a story for another thread (or a speech/platform).

I should not be too pessimistic. In 1997, the Nationalist vote share was 40.2%. In 2010 it was 42%. In 2017, it was 41.1%. The Unionist vote share was 50.4%, 50.5%, and 49.5%. That seems pretty stable to me.

The future of the island of Ireland is as a unified, secular nonsectarian state. Northern Ireland is a geopolitical absurdity, born of a fractional and ever diminishing majority and ramped up by a handful of bigoted reactionaries. They are swimming against a demographic tide, thankfully.

There has been very little change in support for a unification over the years, and it is far lower than the nationalist vote share.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Ireland#Public_opinion

The case will be made, and it will unify. Just a matter of time.

Sean_F said:

Bobajob_PB said:

RobD said:

Bobajob_PB said:

Sean_F said:

Lucian_Fletcher said:

rcs1000 said:

Lucian_Fletcher said:

Not unless there's significant changes to the NI proposals after public consultation is completed. As they stand, the proposed NI boundaries are simply appalling for Unionism.

Just as a matter of interest, what is the approximate unionist / nationalist split in Northern Ireland?

There's a Unionist plurality (though no longer a majority). But it's not huge.

What is clearly the case is that those born into shall we say a Nationalist background are entering the voting demographic at a faster rate than those from without.

The total Unionist vote share has fallen below 50 per cent and I contend is unlikely to ever get back there (if it did, it would be temporarily because Alliance falls away).

Unionism needs to appeal beyond it's core to deliver Northern Ireland through and beyond 2030.

I don't think it can while it remains dominated by the DUP. But that's a story for another thread (or a speech/platform).

I should not be too pessimistic. In 1997, the Nationalist vote share was 40.2%. In 2010 it was 42%. In 2017, it was 41.1%. The Unionist vote share was 50.4%, 50.5%, and 49.5%. That seems pretty stable to me.

The future of the island of Ireland is as a unified, secular nonsectarian state. Northern Ireland is a geopolitical absurdity, born of a fractional and ever diminishing majority and ramped up by a handful of bigoted reactionaries. They are swimming against a demographic tide, thankfully.

There has been very little change in support for a unification over the years, and it is far lower than the nationalist vote share.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Ireland#Public_opinion

The case will be made, and it will unify. Just a matter of time.

Don't you think the case has been made since 1922?

Mortimer said:

Alanbrooke said:

RobD said:

Bobajob_PB said:

Sean_F said:

Lucian_Fletcher said:

rcs1000 said:

Lucian_Fletcher said:

Not unless there's significant changes to the NI proposals after public consultation is completed. As they stand, the proposed NI boundaries are simply appalling for Unionism.

Just as a matter of interest, what is the approximate unionist / nationalist split in Northern Ireland?

There's a Unionist plurality (though no longer a majority). But it's not huge.

What is clearly the case is that those born into shall we say a Nationalist background are entering the voting demographic at a faster rate than those from without.

The total Unionist vote share has fallen below 50 per cent and I contend is unlikely to ever get back there (if it did, it would be temporarily because Alliance falls away).

Unionism needs to appeal beyond it's core to deliver Northern Ireland through and beyond 2030.

I don't think it can while it remains dominated by the DUP. But that's a story for another thread (or a speech/platform).

I should not be too pessimistic. In 1997, the Nationalist vote share was 40.2%. In 2010 it was 42%. In 2017, it was 41.1%. The Unionist vote share was 50.4%, 50.5%, and 49.5%. That seems pretty stable to me.

The future of the island of Ireland is as a unified, secular nonsectarian state. Northern Ireland is a geopolitical absurdity, born of a fractional and ever diminishing majority and ramped up by a handful of bigoted reactionaries. They are swimming against a demographic tide, thankfully.

There has been very little change in support for a unification over the years, and it is far lower than the nationalist vote share.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Ireland#Public_opinion

chortle

Bobajobl has decided - the people must do as theyre told

Its ok - he'll forget his password again soon; the people of Ireland can breathe a sigh of relief...

RobD said:

Bobajob_PB said:

RobD said:

Bobajob_PB said:

Sean_F said:

Lucian_Fletcher said:

rcs1000 said:

Lucian_Fletcher said:

Not unless there's significant changes to the NI proposals after public consultation is completed. As they stand, the proposed NI boundaries are simply appalling for Unionism.

Just as a matter of interest, what is the approximate unionist / nationalist split in Northern Ireland?

There's a Unionist plurality (though no longer a majority). But it's not huge.

What is clearly the case is that those born into shall we say a Nationalist background are entering the voting demographic at a faster rate than those from without.

The total Unionist vote share has fallen below 50 per cent and I contend is unlikely to ever get back there (if it did, it would be temporarily because Alliance falls away).

Unionism needs to appeal beyond it's core to deliver Northern Ireland through and beyond 2030.

I don't think it can while it remains dominated by the DUP. But that's a story for another thread (or a speech/platform).

I should not be too pessimistic. In 1997, the Nationalist vote share was 40.2%. In 2010 it was 42%. In 2017, it was 41.1%. The Unionist vote share was 50.4%, 50.5%, and 49.5%. That seems pretty stable to me.

The future of the island of Ireland is as a unified, secular nonsectarian state. Northern Ireland is a geopolitical absurdity, born of a fractional and ever diminishing majority and ramped up by a handful of bigoted reactionaries. They are swimming against a demographic tide, thankfully.

There has been very little change in support for a unification over the years, and it is far lower than the nationalist vote share.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Ireland#Public_opinion

The case will be made, and it will unify. Just a matter of time.

A very long way to go, looking at those numbers.

tlg86 said:

RobD said:

Bobajob_PB said:

RobD said:

Bobajob_PB said:

Sean_F said:

Lucian_Fletcher said:

rcs1000 said:

Lucian_Fletcher said:

Not unless there's significant changes to the NI proposals after public consultation is completed. As they stand, the proposed NI boundaries are simply appalling for Unionism.

Just as a matter of interest, what is the approximate unionist / nationalist split in Northern Ireland?

There's a Unionist plurality (though no longer a majority). But it's not huge.

What is clearly the case is that those born into shall we say a Nationalist background are entering the voting demographic at a faster rate than those from without.

The total Unionist vote share has fallen below 50 per cent and I contend is unlikely to ever get back there (if it did, it would be temporarily because Alliance falls away).

Unionism needs to appeal beyond it's core to deliver Northern Ireland through and beyond 2030.

I don't think it can while it remains dominated by the DUP. But that's a story for another thread (or a speech/platform).

I should not be too pessimistic. In 1997, the Nationalist vote share was 40.2%. In 2010 it was 42%. In 2017, it was 41.1%. The Unionist vote share was 50.4%, 50.5%, and 49.5%. That seems pretty stable to me.

The future of the island of Ireland is as a unified, secular nonsectarian state. Northern Ireland is a geopolitical absurdity, born of a fractional and ever diminishing majority and ramped up by a handful of bigoted reactionaries. They are swimming against a demographic tide, thankfully.

There has been very little change in support for a unification over the years, and it is far lower than the nationalist vote share.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Ireland#Public_opinion

The case will be made, and it will unify. Just a matter of time.

A very long way to go, looking at those numbers.

Interesting how support for the Union strengthened between 2006 and 2008. I suppose a perceived Brexit-induced recession for the UK could reverse that and support for Scottish independence moved a lot during the run up to that referendum.

GeoffM said:

tlg86 said:

Andrew said:

HYUFD said:

One thing is for certain, even if we did rejoin the EU we would never join the Euro

Countries joining the EU don't have a choice iirc.

I see Croatia still hasn't joined the Euro.

Only a matter of time. All they need to do is fudge the criteria a little bit further.

Have you been there recently? I was there earlier in the year and I'm going back next month on business. I'll only bother packing Euros in my wallet. Just about everything is priced and paid in euros - and it was even before they joined the EU.

tlg86 said:

RobD said:

Bobajob_PB said:

RobD said:

Bobajob_PB said:

Sean_F said:

Lucian_Fletcher said:

rcs1000 said:

Lucian_Fletcher said:

Not unless there's significant changes to the NI proposals after public consultation is completed. As they stand, the proposed NI boundaries are simply appalling for Unionism.

Just as a matter of interest, what is the approximate unionist / nationalist split in Northern Ireland?

There's a Unionist plurality (though no longer a majority). But it's not huge.

What is clearly the case is that those born into shall we say a Nationalist background are entering the voting demographic at a faster rate than those from without.

The total Unionist vote share has fallen below 50 per cent and I contend is unlikely to ever get back there (if it did, it would be temporarily because Alliance falls away).

Unionism needs to appeal beyond it's core to deliver Northern Ireland through and beyond 2030.

I don't think it can while it remains dominated by the DUP. But that's a story for another thread (or a speech/platform).

I should not be too pessimistic. In 1997, the Nationalist vote share was 40.2%. In 2010 it was 42%. In 2017, it was 41.1%. The Unionist vote share was 50.4%, 50.5%, and 49.5%. That seems pretty stable to me.

The future of the island of Ireland is as a unified, secular nonsectarian state. Northern Ireland is a geopolitical absurdity, born of a fractional and ever diminishing majority and ramped up by a handful of bigoted reactionaries. They are swimming against a demographic tide, thankfully.

There has been very little change in support for a unification over the years, and it is far lower than the nationalist vote share.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Ireland#Public_opinion

The case will be made, and it will unify. Just a matter of time.

A very long way to go, looking at those numbers.

Interesting how support for the Union strengthened between 2006 and 2008. I suppose a perceived Brexit-induced recession for the UK could reverse that and support for Scottish independence moved a lot during the run up to that referendum.

ThreeQuidder said:

Casino_Royale said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Casino_Royale said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

Quite.

And if it hadn't been for Brexit we would probably still be in that position, or maybe better. The only downside would have been the persistent grumbling from europhobes. But Brexit not only destabilised the Government but has now led to a Hung Parliament and every prospect that the next Government will be the most left-wing since WW2.

As a Tory Remainer you must find this deeply regrettable, Richard, but imagine if you were a Tory Leaver. You not only have the horror of what has happened to contend with but you know that in some small measure, you were responsible.

TLs need to be put on suicide watch.

I have been regularly asking Leavers on pb whether they would now prefer Britain out of the EU and Jeremy Corbyn as Prime Minister or Britain still in the EU with David Cameron as Prime Minister. So far they are sticking to their preference for Brexit, even with Jeremy Corbyn as Prime Minister. But we'll see whether this line holds indefinitely.

I know you won't accept this as an answer, but mine would be David Cameron as PM with Britain out of the EU. What you're really looking for is a bit of Bregret from me, but I don't have any, and I don't see a link: Jeremy Corbyn was elected as Labour leader well before we voted to Leave and I think his election surge was largely based on anti-austerity and a dire Tory campaign.

Osborne could easily have lost to him in GE2020 in a Remain scenario, and we'd only have had another 18-24 months of Cameron. But I'd be perfectly happy if Cameron came back as PM in future once we've left (he won't of course).

Can Corbyn do more damage as PM outside the EU than in? Probably, yes. But if that's what we vote for then that is what we'll get.

He won't be in power forever.

Of course there's a link. You're just finding out that your version of crazy has been outbid by a rival offering.

I don't think Leaving the EU is crazy.

I think joining it and signing up to Maastricht and Lisbon was. It becomes ever clearer to me we should have just stayed in and developed EFTA the whole time.

Half-in/half-out was crazy. It had to be resolved to either In or Out, and since virtually nobody was prepared to argue for In, Out was always likely to win eventually.

Alanbrooke said:

ThreeQuidder said:

Casino_Royale said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Casino_Royale said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

Quite.

And if it hadn't been for Brexit we would probably still be in that position, or maybe better. The only downside would have been the persistent grumbling from europhobes. But Brexit not only destabilised the Government but has now led to a Hung Parliament and every prospect that the next Government will be the most left-wing since WW2.

As a Tory Remainer you must find this deeply regrettable, Richard, but imagine if you were a Tory Leaver. You not only have the horror of what has happened to contend with but you know that in some small measure, you were responsible.

TLs need to be put on suicide watch.

I have been regularly asking Leavers on pb whether they would now prefer Britain out of the EU and Jeremy Corbyn as Prime Minister or Britain still in the EU with David Cameron as Prime Minister. So far they are sticking to their preference for Brexit, even with Jeremy Corbyn as Prime Minister. But we'll see whether this line holds indefinitely.

I know you won't accept this as an answer, but mine would be David Cameron as PM with Britain out of the EU. What you're really looking for is a bit of Bregret from me, but I don't have any, and I don't see a link: Jeremy Corbyn was elected as Labour leader well before we voted to Leave and I think his election surge was largely based on anti-austerity and a dire Tory campaign.

Osborne could easily have lost to him in GE2020 in a Remain scenario, and we'd only have had another 18-24 months of Cameron. But I'd be perfectly happy if Cameron came back as PM in future once we've left (he won't of course).

Can Corbyn do more damage as PM outside the EU than in? Probably, yes. But if that's what we vote for then that is what we'll get.

He won't be in power forever.

Of course there's a link. You're just finding out that your version of crazy has been outbid by a rival offering.

I don't think Leaving the EU is crazy.

I think joining it and signing up to Maastricht and Lisbon was. It becomes ever clearer to me we should have just stayed in and developed EFTA the whole time.

Half-in/half-out was crazy. It had to be resolved to either In or Out, and since virtually nobody was prepared to argue for In, Out was always likely to win eventually.

well maybe

but I'd say across Europe the biggest problem for the federalists was the federalists

they pushed an agenda instead of letting it evelove at its own pace and take people with them

	             2005	 2010    2015   2017
SF	           174530 	171942	176,232	238,915
SDLP	           125626 	110970	99,809	95,419
Nationalist	   300,156	 282,912 276,041 334,334

RoyalBlue said:

I don't see a United Ireland in my lifetime. The Unionist vote in a border poll would be significantly greater than support for Unionist parties in normal elections, and as Northern Ireland gets more diverse I don't see those outside the Protestant/Catholic split being more Nationalist than Unionist.

Fear of disruption will be enough, even when Protestants are the minority. I also expect the Republic's enthusiasm for unification will diminish over time.

RoyalBlue said:

I don't see a United Ireland in my lifetime. The Unionist vote in a border poll would be significantly greater than support for Unionist parties in normal elections, and as Northern Ireland gets more diverse I don't see those outside the Protestant/Catholic split being more Nationalist than Unionist.

Fear of disruption will be enough, even when Protestants are the minority. I also expect the Republic's enthusiasm for unification will diminish over time.

EPG said:

RoyalBlue said:

I don't see a United Ireland in my lifetime. The Unionist vote in a border poll would be significantly greater than support for Unionist parties in normal elections, and as Northern Ireland gets more diverse I don't see those outside the Protestant/Catholic split being more Nationalist than Unionist.

Fear of disruption will be enough, even when Protestants are the minority. I also expect the Republic's enthusiasm for unification will diminish over time.

Like Brexitrumpcorbyn, the polls are against it and all we know about voters and their traditional habits tells us it won't happen, until the campaign starts and maybe it does.

Sean_F said:

williamglenn said:

Bobajob_PB said:

Sean_F said:

Lucian_Fletcher said:

rcs1000 said:

Lucian_Fletcher said:

Not unless there's significant changes to the NI proposals after public consultation is completed. As they stand, the proposed NI boundaries are simply appalling for Unionism.

Just as a matter of interest, what is the approximate unionist / nationalist split in Northern Ireland?

There's a Unionist plurality (though no longer a majority). But it's not huge.

What is clearly the case is that those born into shall we say a Nationalist background are entering the voting demographic at a faster rate than those from without.

The total Unionist vote share has fallen below 50 per cent and I contend is unlikely to ever get back there (if it did, it would be temporarily because Alliance falls away).

Unionism needs to appeal beyond it's core to deliver Northern Ireland through and beyond 2030.

I don't think it can while it remains dominated by the DUP. But that's a story for another thread (or a speech/platform).

I should not be too pessimistic. In 1997, the Nationalist vote share was 40.2%. In 2010 it was 42%. In 2017, it was 41.1%. The Unionist vote share was 50.4%, 50.5%, and 49.5%. That seems pretty stable to me.

The future of the island of Ireland is as a unified, secular nonsectarian state. Northern Ireland is a geopolitical absurdity, born of a fractional and ever diminishing majority and ramped up by a handful of bigoted reactionaries. They are swimming against a demographic tide, thankfully.

One thing Brexit has done is expose the irredentism of the unionists in both Northern Ireland and England who believe the solution to this absurdity lies in a de facto reversal of Irish independence by breaking it away from the EU. The status quo is becoming unsustainable.

The Irish must act in their own best interests.

This election has been a very good one for Unionists, however. And that's not surprising. The EU is all about breaking national identity down. Brexit strengthens the Union.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Alanbrooke said:

RoyalBlue said:

I don't see a United Ireland in my lifetime. The Unionist vote in a border poll would be significantly greater than support for Unionist parties in normal elections, and as Northern Ireland gets more diverse I don't see those outside the Protestant/Catholic split being more Nationalist than Unionist.

Fear of disruption will be enough, even when Protestants are the minority. I also expect the Republic's enthusiasm for unification will diminish over time.

Its as inevitable as the triumph of communism

Most southerners like the concept until they realise it will radically increase their tax bills and the Dail will be controlled by SF or the DUP since adding 40% more voters overnight means the Nordies will hold the balance of power in a coalition system.

So if 65 million Brits wince at a £1billion of pork, 4.5 million paddies will screaming for the border back

I heard the same about the West Germans not wanting to take back East Germany.

FF43 said:

In the immediate term it seems so. OTOH the motivation is probably that Brexit is so chaotic that further disruption should be avoided, which isn't a good foundation for the future.

It's about the border for Northern Ireland. Without it Northern Ireland ceases to exist. The Good Friday Agreement is ambiguous about the border. It's going to be a lot harder to maintain that ambiguity after Brexit. Those that think it a gerrymander will be less tolerant of it. It won't necessarily divide Ireland further, although it might.

Bromptonaut said:

RobD said:

Bromptonaut said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

DUP votes = 292,316
SF votes = 238,915

That gerrymandering lasts a while, eh?

The NI constituencies are gerrymandered?

Those were total votes. Constituencies have nothing to do with it.

Alanbrooke said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Alanbrooke said:

RoyalBlue said:

I don't see a United Ireland in my lifetime. The Unionist vote in a border poll would be significantly greater than support for Unionist parties in normal elections, and as Northern Ireland gets more diverse I don't see those outside the Protestant/Catholic split being more Nationalist than Unionist.

Fear of disruption will be enough, even when Protestants are the minority. I also expect the Republic's enthusiasm for unification will diminish over time.

Its as inevitable as the triumph of communism

Most southerners like the concept until they realise it will radically increase their tax bills and the Dail will be controlled by SF or the DUP since adding 40% more voters overnight means the Nordies will hold the balance of power in a coalition system.

So if 65 million Brits wince at a £1billion of pork, 4.5 million paddies will screaming for the border back

I heard the same about the West Germans not wanting to take back East Germany.

I lived in Germany when the Wessis moaned non stop about a 7.5% tax hike, billions needing to be pumped in to a dysfunctional economy and a dislike for Ossis. The Eastern population fell off a cliff and even today the unity has severe cracks, the East votes in extreme parties like the AfD and Die Linke and the economic base is fragile.

Beverley_C said:

RobD said:

Beverley_C said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Total Nationalist vote in NI

	             2005	 2010    2015   2017
SF	           174530 	171942	176,232	238,915
SDLP	           125626 	110970	99,809	95,419
Nationalist	   300,156	 282,912 276,041 334,334

And some population trends to go with that ....

Which has had zero effect on the polls regarding unification.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Northern_Ireland_Life_and_Times_Survey_constitutional_preference.png

Give it time. The Trend is their Friend (well... for Nationalists perhaps)

Beverley_C said:

RobD said:

Beverley_C said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Total Nationalist vote in NI

	             2005	 2010    2015   2017
SF	           174530 	171942	176,232	238,915
SDLP	           125626 	110970	99,809	95,419
Nationalist	   300,156	 282,912 276,041 334,334

And some population trends to go with that ....

Which has had zero effect on the polls regarding unification.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Northern_Ireland_Life_and_Times_Survey_constitutional_preference.png

Give it time. The Trend is their Friend (well... for Nationalists perhaps)

MikeL said:

First vote of the new Parliament - on Lab amendment to Queens Speech:

Lab amendment loses by 323 to 309 - Govt maj = 14

Con + DUP = 328 less 2 Speakers less 2 tellers = 324. So one MP missing.

Opposition = 315 less 2 Speakers less 2 tellers = 311. So two MPs missing.

Very good turnout on both sides.

(Assumes Hermon voted with Opposition - can anyone confirm?)

GeoffM said:

MikeL said:

First vote of the new Parliament - on Lab amendment to Queens Speech:

Lab amendment loses by 323 to 309 - Govt maj = 14

Con + DUP = 328 less 2 Speakers less 2 tellers = 324. So one MP missing.

Opposition = 315 less 2 Speakers less 2 tellers = 311. So two MPs missing.

Very good turnout on both sides.

(Assumes Hermon voted with Opposition - can anyone confirm?)

Confirmed - voted with Labour

GeoffM said:

MikeL said:

First vote of the new Parliament - on Lab amendment to Queens Speech:

Lab amendment loses by 323 to 309 - Govt maj = 14

Con + DUP = 328 less 2 Speakers less 2 tellers = 324. So one MP missing.

Opposition = 315 less 2 Speakers less 2 tellers = 311. So two MPs missing.

Very good turnout on both sides.

(Assumes Hermon voted with Opposition - can anyone confirm?)

Confirmed - voted with Labour

RobD said:

Beverley_C said:

RobD said:

Beverley_C said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Total Nationalist vote in NI

	                            2005	 2010    2015   2017
SF	               174530 	171942	176,232	238,915
SDLP	               125626 	110970	99,809	95,419
Nationalist	   300,156	 282,912 276,041 334,334

And some population trends to go with that ....

Which has had zero effect on the polls regarding unification.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Northern_Ireland_Life_and_Times_Survey_constitutional_preference.png

Give it time. The Trend is their Friend (well... for Nationalists perhaps)

If anything they are going backwards.

	       2005	2010	2015	2017
SF	        24.3	25.5	24.5	29.4
SDLP	        17.5	16.5	13.9	11.7
Nationalist	41.8	42.0	38.4	41.1

RoyalBlue said:

GeoffM said:

MikeL said:

First vote of the new Parliament - on Lab amendment to Queens Speech:

Lab amendment loses by 323 to 309 - Govt maj = 14

Con + DUP = 328 less 2 Speakers less 2 tellers = 324. So one MP missing.

Opposition = 315 less 2 Speakers less 2 tellers = 311. So two MPs missing.

Very good turnout on both sides.

(Assumes Hermon voted with Opposition - can anyone confirm?)

Confirmed - voted with Labour

I really hope the DUP can boot her out next time. Having voted with Corbyn for 5 years there should be plenty to work with.

NickPalmer said:

MikeL said:

First vote of the new Parliament - on Lab amendment to Queens Speech:

Lab amendment loses by 323 to 309 - Govt maj = 14

Con + DUP = 328 less 2 Speakers less 2 tellers = 324. So one MP missing.

Opposition = 315 less 2 Speakers less 2 tellers = 311. So two MPs missing.

Very good turnout on both sides.

(Assumes Hermon voted with Opposition - can anyone confirm?)

Yes, she did:

https://commonsvotes.digiminster.com/

Sean_F said:

RoyalBlue said:

GeoffM said:

MikeL said:

First vote of the new Parliament - on Lab amendment to Queens Speech:

Lab amendment loses by 323 to 309 - Govt maj = 14

Con + DUP = 328 less 2 Speakers less 2 tellers = 324. So one MP missing.

Opposition = 315 less 2 Speakers less 2 tellers = 311. So two MPs missing.

Very good turnout on both sides.

(Assumes Hermon voted with Opposition - can anyone confirm?)

Confirmed - voted with Labour

I really hope the DUP can boot her out next time. Having voted with Corbyn for 5 years there should be plenty to work with.

I think this will go down like a cup of cold sick with North Down's voters.

Alanbrooke said:

RobD said:

Beverley_C said:

RobD said:

Beverley_C said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Total Nationalist vote in NI

	             2005	 2010    2015   2017
SF	           174530 	171942	176,232	238,915
SDLP	           125626 	110970	99,809	95,419
Nationalist	   300,156	 282,912 276,041 334,334

And some population trends to go with that ....

Which has had zero effect on the polls regarding unification.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Northern_Ireland_Life_and_Times_Survey_constitutional_preference.png

Give it time. The Trend is their Friend (well... for Nationalists perhaps)

If anything they are going backwards.

the fastest growing segment of the NI popultion is those who profess no religion, its why the dull sectarian headcount is becoming a less reliable indicator

Sean_F said:

RoyalBlue said:

GeoffM said:

MikeL said:

First vote of the new Parliament - on Lab amendment to Queens Speech:

Lab amendment loses by 323 to 309 - Govt maj = 14

Con + DUP = 328 less 2 Speakers less 2 tellers = 324. So one MP missing.

Opposition = 315 less 2 Speakers less 2 tellers = 311. So two MPs missing.

Very good turnout on both sides.

(Assumes Hermon voted with Opposition - can anyone confirm?)

Confirmed - voted with Labour

I really hope the DUP can boot her out next time. Having voted with Corbyn for 5 years there should be plenty to work with.

I think this will go down like a cup of cold sick with North Down's voters.

EPG said:

Sean_F said:

RoyalBlue said:

GeoffM said:

MikeL said:

First vote of the new Parliament - on Lab amendment to Queens Speech:

Lab amendment loses by 323 to 309 - Govt maj = 14

Con + DUP = 328 less 2 Speakers less 2 tellers = 324. So one MP missing.

Opposition = 315 less 2 Speakers less 2 tellers = 311. So two MPs missing.

Very good turnout on both sides.

(Assumes Hermon voted with Opposition - can anyone confirm?)

Confirmed - voted with Labour

I really hope the DUP can boot her out next time. Having voted with Corbyn for 5 years there should be plenty to work with.

I think this will go down like a cup of cold sick with North Down's voters.

Why?

FF43 said:

RobD said:

FF43 said:

In the immediate term it seems so. OTOH the motivation is probably that Brexit is so chaotic that further disruption should be avoided, which isn't a good foundation for the future.

It's about the border for Northern Ireland. Without it Northern Ireland ceases to exist. The Good Friday Agreement is ambiguous about the border. It's going to be a lot harder to maintain that ambiguity after Brexit. Those that think it a gerrymander will be less tolerant of it. It won't necessarily divide Ireland further, although it might.

I thought the whole concern was about having a border? Yet you are saying if it doesn't exist there is no Northern Ireland.

If you stand on the banks of the Rhine, you can point to the other side and say, that's Germany, the people living there are Germans. This side is France and the people living here are French. That's a normal border.

Sunil_Prasannan said:

FF43 said:

RobD said:

FF43 said:

In the immediate term it seems so. OTOH the motivation is probably that Brexit is so chaotic that further disruption should be avoided, which isn't a good foundation for the future.

It's about the border for Northern Ireland. Without it Northern Ireland ceases to exist. The Good Friday Agreement is ambiguous about the border. It's going to be a lot harder to maintain that ambiguity after Brexit. Those that think it a gerrymander will be less tolerant of it. It won't necessarily divide Ireland further, although it might.

I thought the whole concern was about having a border? Yet you are saying if it doesn't exist there is no Northern Ireland.

If you stand on the banks of the Rhine, you can point to the other side and say, that's Germany, the people living there are Germans. This side is France and the people living here are French. That's a normal border.

Um , what about the Rhineland? Cologne straddles both banks.

FF43 said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

FF43 said:

RobD said:

FF43 said:

In the immediate term it seems so. OTOH the motivation is probably that Brexit is so chaotic that further disruption should be avoided, which isn't a good foundation for the future.

It's about the border for Northern Ireland. Without it Northern Ireland ceases to exist. The Good Friday Agreement is ambiguous about the border. It's going to be a lot harder to maintain that ambiguity after Brexit. Those that think it a gerrymander will be less tolerant of it. It won't necessarily divide Ireland further, although it might.

I thought the whole concern was about having a border? Yet you are saying if it doesn't exist there is no Northern Ireland.

If you stand on the banks of the Rhine, you can point to the other side and say, that's Germany, the people living there are Germans. This side is France and the people living here are French. That's a normal border.

Um , what about the Rhineland? Cologne straddles both banks.

Strasbourg maybe? Wars were fought over that border, but they were about nationality and territory. It's a normal border in that respect. Even those drawing up the original border in Ireland thought it was an arbitrary line . That's because it wasn't done to create a country. It's aim was and remains to establish a space where protestants could sure of being protestant.

If Scotland ever becomes independent, the border is clear. I think we can forgo Berwick.

RoyalBlue said:

FF43 said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

FF43 said:

RobD said:

FF43 said:

In the immediate term it seems so. OTOH the motivation is probably that Brexit is so chaotic that further disruption should be avoided, which isn't a good foundation for the future.

It's about the border for Northern Ireland. Without it Northern Ireland ceases to exist. The Good Friday Agreement is ambiguous about the border. It's going to be a lot harder to maintain that ambiguity after Brexit. Those that think it a gerrymander will be less tolerant of it. It won't necessarily divide Ireland further, although it might.

I thought the whole concern was about having a border? Yet you are saying if it doesn't exist there is no Northern Ireland.

If you stand on the banks of the Rhine, you can point to the other side and say, that's Germany, the people living there are Germans. This side is France and the people living here are French. That's a normal border.

Um , what about the Rhineland? Cologne straddles both banks.

Strasbourg maybe? Wars were fought over that border, but they were about nationality and territory. It's a normal border in that respect. Even those drawing up the original border in Ireland thought it was an arbitrary line . That's because it wasn't done to create a country. It's aim was and remains to establish a space where protestants could sure of being protestant.

If Scotland ever becomes independent, the border is clear. I think we can forgo Berwick.

Why undermine a half-reasonable argument with a non-sequitur? Berwick has been part of England for over 500 years; I don't think it's up for debate.

GeoffM said:

FF43 said:

RoyalBlue said:

FF43 said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

FF43 said:

RobD said:

FF43 said:

In the immediate term it seems so. OTOH the motivation is probably that Brexit is so chaotic that further disruption should be avoided, which isn't a good foundation for the future.

It's about the border for Northern Ireland. Without it Northern Ireland ceases to exist. The Good Friday Agreement is ambiguous about the border. It's going to be a lot harder to maintain that ambiguity after Brexit. Those that think it a gerrymander will be less tolerant of it. It won't necessarily divide Ireland further, although it might.

I thought the whole concern was about having a border? Yet you are saying if it doesn't exist there is no Northern Ireland.

If you stand on the banks of the Rhine, you can point to the other side and say, that's Germany, the people living there are Germans. This side is France and the people living here are French. That's a normal border.

Um , what about the Rhineland? Cologne straddles both banks.

Strasbourg maybe? Wars were fought over that border, but they were about nationality and territory. It's a normal border in that respect. Even those drawing up the original border in Ireland thought it was an arbitrary line . That's because it wasn't done to create a country. It's aim was and remains to establish a space where protestants could sure of being protestant.

If Scotland ever becomes independent, the border is clear. I think we can forgo Berwick.

Why undermine a half-reasonable argument with a non-sequitur? Berwick has been part of England for over 500 years; I don't think it's up for debate.

It's not. The historical quibble illustrates the fact that Scotland as a territory (and a land and an idea) has been well defined for a thousand years. Northern Ireland still isn't.

When's the time cutoff?
Is there a countdown clock somewhere for easy reference?