politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Emily Thornberry lures Sir Michael Fallon into possibly the gr

Sofa chat with Michael Fallon and @EmilyThornberry #marr pic.twitter.com/7Ji3UJz156
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SNP hold by around 3k.calum said:
What's your model predicting for Stirling ?Pulpstar said:
SNP hold by 500 votes using my Scottish yougov switcher model.Theuniondivvie said:Surprisingly (to me) strong figs for Jezza in East Ren. Blair M. should maybe be a bit nicer about his leader!
https://twitter.com/WingsScotland/status/863725732169736192
I'd be wary about piling onto the Tories at short odds in Scotland to be perfectly fair (Save BRS and DCT).
The majorities to overcome are still enormous.0 -
Not first!0
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First after a recount by Diane Abbott.
Why didn't he pick her up on her oft-repeated lie about being an honorary army officer? She leaves not so much an open goal as a carefully set-up own try on that one.0 -
I feel like the aftermath of Lake Trasimene was just a little more destructive.
Though it seems Fallon is a better attack dog in one on one situations than with an opponent in the room.0 -
Fallon as a Defence Secretary leaves much to be desired. If I was a soldier I wouldn't want to serve in the army while he was in charge.ydoethur said:First after a recount by Diane Abbott.
Why didn't he pick her up on her oft-repeated lie about being an honorary army officer? She leaves not so much an open goal as a carefully set-up own try on that one.0 -
I'm sure getting in to this 'who has who met with' battle is a very strong one for the current Labour leadership - they have some top trumps in their cards...0
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Cheers - Baxter is SNP hold by 400ish - FWIW I think your model's result is more in line with the local vibe !Pulpstar said:
SNP hold by around 3k.calum said:
What's your model predicting for Stirling ?Pulpstar said:
SNP hold by 500 votes using my Scottish yougov switcher model.Theuniondivvie said:Surprisingly (to me) strong figs for Jezza in East Ren. Blair M. should maybe be a bit nicer about his leader!
https://twitter.com/WingsScotland/status/863725732169736192
I'd be wary about piling onto the Tories at short odds in Scotland to be perfectly fair (Save BRS and DCT).
The majorities to overcome are still enormous.0 -
Good insight. I think Thornberry was appallingly traduced over that flag thing - mainly by people who'd never stomach being in the vicinity of, let alone living next door to, football oiks. As for Fallon, Labour haven't had a bad few days. It still won't happen, but the Tories are doing everything possible to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. Too complacent perhaps?0
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Trolled you there, Y0kel! I thought you'd biteY0kel said:
You know nothing about how counter insurgency works.Cyan said:
Corbyn "backed" them, but SIS only "colluded" with them?Y0kel said:Anyone who seriously believes Corbyn's backing (and it is backing) for the Provos can be palmed off needs their head examined.
For a start SIS role in agent running within the Provos was peripheral. Go check your names for the security services. Might help you.
Tell me - if Corbyn was helping out (and it wouldn't have been the FRU he reported to, in Islington) would you be in the loop? Bear a number of possibilities in mind. If you know something, that doesn't mean another person knows nothing, nor that you know it all.
PS I probably first read Kitson when you were in short trousers.
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I think Thornberry is quite a good spokesperson. She's quite good (by Labour standards) at defending the line in interviews and getting the basic numbers right sounding like she knows what she's talking about.
She'd be awful as the actual leader though, at least if Labour wants to hold working-class Northern and Midlands seats at some point in the future.0 -
TSE's hyperbole aside, I seriously don't think the public will equate Fallon meeting with Assad 10 years ago in an offical capacity as quite the same as an MP showing tacit support for the IRA. It's not far off from the 'Queen shaking Martin McGuinness's hand' for Corbyn's apologists.
I cannot believe people are now touting Thornberry as a potential leader. It's getting increasingly ridiculous.0 -
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The lady Nugee doth protest too much.0
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It'd be interesting to find out, since as you say she has definite good qualities, even if she has had some major mess ups.Danny565 said:I think Thornberry is quite a good spokesperson. She's quite good (by Labour standards) at defending the line in interviews and getting the basic numbers right sounding like she knows what she's talking about.
She'd be awful as the actual leader though, at least if Labour wants to hold working-class Northern and Midlands seats at some point in the future.0 -
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To coin a phrase, "In the land of the blind, the one eyed person is King." Kier Stammer is the best of a bad bunch. Dan Jarvis will connect with the WWC.Jason said:TSE's hyperbole aside, I seriously don't think the public will equate Fallon meeting with Assad 10 years ago in an offical capacity as quite the same as an MP showing tacit support for the IRA. It's not far off from the 'Queen shaking Martin McGuinness's hand' for Corbyn's apologists.
I cannot believe people are now touting Thornberry as a potential leader. It's getting increasingly ridiculous.0 -
https://twitter.com/scotelects/status/863698895423115264
@MrTCHarris: This represents an SNP > Conservative swing of 12% twitter.com/scotelects/sta…0 -
Scrapheap_as_was said:
I'm sure getting in to this 'who has who met with' battle is a very strong one for the current Labour leadership - they have some top trumps in their cards...
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If JC is so interested in peace, can someone explain why he only ever meets one side?0
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I exclusively take my scotland information from subsamples, so no dice.Scott_P said:https://twitter.com/scotelects/status/863698895423115264
@MrTCHarris: This represents an SNP > Conservative swing of 12% twitter.com/scotelects/sta…0 -
This is just another example of how utterly mediocre the Tories are. Fallon is undoubtedly one of the government's better performers, too.
Thornberry was defending the indefensible.0 -
General state of politics. The labour shadow cabinet are worse than mediocre Tories.SouthamObserver said:This is just another example of how utterly mediocre the Tories are. Fallon is undoubtedly one of the government's better performers, too.
Thornberry was defending the indefensible.0 -
That said, I don't really think Tories mingling with Assad will be that damaging to them. The thing is that people view both Assad and Putin as bastards, but bastards who aren't out particularly to harm us - and so they're the lesser evil in the current world, as compared to jihadist nutters who really are out to destroy us.
And that's where Corbyn's real vulnerability is, his calling Hamas "friends" and generally giving the impression he'd want to naively "negotiate" with ISIS, mixed together with wanting to scrap Trident, which altogether does make people scared (frankly, even as someone campaigning for Labour, it makes even me a bit scared; my hope/assumption is that, in the incredibly unlikely event of Corbyn winning, he would just focus on domestic matters while the grown-ups in Labour would take charge of all defence/foreign issues).0 -
What official capacity was he acting in in 2007? And what was the nature of the high level talks he was having?Jason said:TSE's hyperbole aside, I seriously don't think the public will equate Fallon meeting with Assad 10 years ago in an offical capacity as quite the same as an MP showing tacit support for the IRA. It's not far off from the 'Queen shaking Martin McGuinness's hand' for Corbyn's apologists.
He was an opposition MP going on a jolly and downing a few nice drinks at Assad's expense, simple as that.
Not to defend Corbyn's relations with the IRA, but Thornberry made Fallon look like a bit of a tit there.
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Plus the fieldwork ended on May 1st so is 2 weeks out of date .kle4 said:
I exclusively take my scotland information from subsamples, so no dice.Scott_P said:https://twitter.com/scotelects/status/863698895423115264
@MrTCHarris: This represents an SNP > Conservative swing of 12% twitter.com/scotelects/sta…0 -
This chap blends polls & sub-samples:kle4 said:
I exclusively take my scotland information from subsamples, so no dice.Scott_P said:https://twitter.com/scotelects/status/863698895423115264
@MrTCHarris: This represents an SNP > Conservative swing of 12% twitter.com/scotelects/sta…
http://scotgoespop.blogspot.co.uk/2017/05/subsample-average-fails-to-find-any.html0 -
Well with the state of SCON surging, there must be cross over with the SNP then!MarkSenior said:
Plus the fieldwork ended on May 1st so is 2 weeks out of date .kle4 said:
I exclusively take my scotland information from subsamples, so no dice.Scott_P said:https://twitter.com/scotelects/status/863698895423115264
@MrTCHarris: This represents an SNP > Conservative swing of 12% twitter.com/scotelects/sta…0 -
wow, a big sample aswell.Scott_P said:https://twitter.com/scotelects/status/863698895423115264
@MrTCHarris: This represents an SNP > Conservative swing of 12% twitter.com/scotelects/sta…0 -
It was a good question from Marr to Fallon in regard to have you supported all wars we have been involved in since 1945 ?0
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If the SNP finish as low as 41% I'd be surprised. Pleasantly surprised, but surprised nonetheless.Scott_P said:https://twitter.com/scotelects/status/863698895423115264
@MrTCHarris: This represents an SNP > Conservative swing of 12% twitter.com/scotelects/sta…
This weekend's polling has been a trifle disappointing. No new surveys from Scotland, and no ICM either. Alas.0 -
SNP 42.8% (-2.2)calum said:
This chap blends polls & sub-samples:kle4 said:
I exclusively take my scotland information from subsamples, so no dice.Scott_P said:https://twitter.com/scotelects/status/863698895423115264
@MrTCHarris: This represents an SNP > Conservative swing of 12% twitter.com/scotelects/sta…
http://scotgoespop.blogspot.co.uk/2017/05/subsample-average-fails-to-find-any.html
Conservatives 30.3% (-1.2)
Labour 15.0% (-0.8)
Liberal Democrats 7.5% (+2.7)
SNP: 41%
CON: 30%
LAB: 17%
LDEM: 7%
OTHER: 5%
Ashcroft and Kelly both in agreement here. If you think those two polls are different then you're being far too over-precise.0 -
Those figures were certainly not borne out by the local elections in Scotland a few days later which gave us on first preferences - SNP 32% Con 25% Lab 20%.MarkSenior said:
Plus the fieldwork ended on May 1st so is 2 weeks out of date .kle4 said:
I exclusively take my scotland information from subsamples, so no dice.Scott_P said:https://twitter.com/scotelects/status/863698895423115264
@MrTCHarris: This represents an SNP > Conservative swing of 12% twitter.com/scotelects/sta…0 -
If I recollect right, she sends her children go to a fee-paying school, and she is a private landlord having purchased former social housing in London to rent out.Danny565 said:I think Thornberry is quite a good spokesperson. She's quite good (by Labour standards) at defending the line in interviews and getting the basic numbers right sounding like she knows what she's talking about.
She'd be awful as the actual leader though, at least if Labour wants to hold working-class Northern and Midlands seats at some point in the future.
I think Jazza’s most attractive feature is that he does try and live by a set of principles he believes in. He has a personal honesty, even if you disagree with him or think he is muddle-headed..
Thornberry doesn’t. Thornberry would be a disaster dwarfing even Miliband and Jazza.
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Seriously ?justin124 said:
Those figures were certainly not borne out by the local elections in Scotland a few days later which gave us on first preferences - SNP 32% Con 25% Lab 20%.MarkSenior said:
Plus the fieldwork ended on May 1st so is 2 weeks out of date .kle4 said:
I exclusively take my scotland information from subsamples, so no dice.Scott_P said:https://twitter.com/scotelects/status/863698895423115264
@MrTCHarris: This represents an SNP > Conservative swing of 12% twitter.com/scotelects/sta…
Why the smeg should GE intention voting be borne out for local elections ?!0 -
I consider your move dashed poor form ....aschamberlain said:As a Scottish Lib Dem (recently relocated to London) .....
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actually they are since the tory vote doubled from 13% to 25% and if the doubling happens at GE tories go from 15% to er......30% (or slightly less).Pulpstar said:
Seriously ?justin124 said:
Those figures were certainly not borne out by the local elections in Scotland a few days later which gave us on first preferences - SNP 32% Con 25% Lab 20%.MarkSenior said:
Plus the fieldwork ended on May 1st so is 2 weeks out of date .kle4 said:
I exclusively take my scotland information from subsamples, so no dice.Scott_P said:https://twitter.com/scotelects/status/863698895423115264
@MrTCHarris: This represents an SNP > Conservative swing of 12% twitter.com/scotelects/sta…0 -
The other thing to remember is that prior to 2011 Assad was seen as a good guy - Bush and Blair publicly discussed how much they liked him and thought he was 'a honey' in the infamous 'Yo Blair' incident. He was given honours and invitations by our leading universities. H was even thought of as someone who could lead a transition to a democracy and maybe even peace in the Arab world. So Fallon wasn't far out of the common line.Danny565 said:That said, I don't really think Tories mingling with Assad will be that damaging to them. The thing is that people view both Assad and Putin as bastards, but bastards who aren't out particularly to harm us - and so they're the lesser evil in the current world, as compared to jihadist nutters who really are out to destroy us.
And that's where Corbyn's real vulnerability is, his calling Hamas "friends" and generally giving the impression he'd want to naively "negotiate" with ISIS, mixed together with wanting to scrap Trident, which altogether does make people scared (frankly, even as someone campaigning for Labour, it makes even me a bit scared; my hope/assumption is that, in the incredibly unlikely event of Corbyn winning, he would just focus on domestic matters while the grown-ups in Labour would take charge of all defence/foreign issues).
Since 2011 and his bombing the living shite out of his people using chemical weapons perceptions have changed. However, Corbyn was hanging out with unreconstructed and unrepentant murderers and Holocaust deniers and supporting their actions at a time when they were still active.0 -
In my experience in the forces 99% of those serving could not tell you who the Secretary of Defence is much less give a fuck about their suitability for the office.MikeK said:
Fallon as a Defence Secretary leaves much to be desired. If I was a soldier I wouldn't want to serve in the army while he was in charge.ydoethur said:First after a recount by Diane Abbott.
Why didn't he pick her up on her oft-repeated lie about being an honorary army officer? She leaves not so much an open goal as a carefully set-up own try on that one.0 -
In trying to run the Fallon playback above my pc simply tells me "the media could not be played". Any advice from techies on the site?0
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When I was in the army I cared, and so did many others.Dura_Ace said:
In my experience in the forces 99% of those serving could not tell you who the Secretary of Defence is much less give a fuck about their suitability for the office.MikeK said:
Fallon as a Defence Secretary leaves much to be desired. If I was a soldier I wouldn't want to serve in the army while he was in charge.ydoethur said:First after a recount by Diane Abbott.
Why didn't he pick her up on her oft-repeated lie about being an honorary army officer? She leaves not so much an open goal as a carefully set-up own try on that one.0 -
You just cannot equate the two. Corbyn was colluding with a group of terrorists who were involved in a de facto war with the British state. You surely must be able to discern the difference. As for Thornberry, I disagree that she made a fool of Fallon. Indeed, her constant denials and spin regarding Corbyn's associations with Irish Republicanism will blow up in hers and the rest of the apologists' faces.SirNorfolkPassmore said:
What official capacity was he acting in in 2007? And what was the nature of the high level talks he was having?Jason said:TSE's hyperbole aside, I seriously don't think the public will equate Fallon meeting with Assad 10 years ago in an offical capacity as quite the same as an MP showing tacit support for the IRA. It's not far off from the 'Queen shaking Martin McGuinness's hand' for Corbyn's apologists.
He was an opposition MP going on a jolly and downing a few nice drinks at Assad's expense, simple as that.
Not to defend Corbyn's relations with the IRA, but Thornberry made Fallon look like a bit of a tit there.0 -
But, but Dr Nick keeps telling us the opposite!!TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
Good afternoon, everyone.
F1: no spoilers, but the race was quite exciting, so if you opt for the highlights it's worth catching.0 -
Good grief. What on earth is their problem that they need MacShameless to do canvassing for them? Are they fresh out of volunteers?TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
Trying to put some measure of Scottish first preference local election votes into Baxter, bearing in mind 10.5% Indy, saw the SNP down below 20 seats. I'll put that to one side as unlikely and not a great predictor of events.Pulpstar said:
Seriously ?justin124 said:
Those figures were certainly not borne out by the local elections in Scotland a few days later which gave us on first preferences - SNP 32% Con 25% Lab 20%.MarkSenior said:
Plus the fieldwork ended on May 1st so is 2 weeks out of date .kle4 said:
I exclusively take my scotland information from subsamples, so no dice.Scott_P said:https://twitter.com/scotelects/status/863698895423115264
@MrTCHarris: This represents an SNP > Conservative swing of 12% twitter.com/scotelects/sta…
Why the smeg should GE intention voting be borne out for local elections ?!
Interesting wiki says the SNP got exactly the same first preference percentage as 5 years ago. Remarkable consistency.0 -
That hack's question is moronic. How can the British government "guarantee" what will happen in a Scottish shipyard if Scotland becomes independent? And why on earth should it promise to shift a home defence contract to a newly-become foreign country? Most SNPers who watch the interview will think "What a mealymouthed English b******, cr***ing on Scotland". They won't think "If it became independent, Scotland would lose this kind of employment, so perhaps independence isn't such a good idea after all". They'll probably think his attitude strengthens the case for independence. They don't get it that an rUK government will be expected to put rUK first and will have zero responsibility to look after Scotland or to maintain employment in Scotland. Michael Fallon should have answered "no, of course not".Theuniondivvie said:On topic, I'll never get tired of this.
https://youtu.be/e3Gd9yh4HsI0 -
It's a virus with a subliminal message from Corbyn about the MSM.RobC said:In trying to run the Fallon playback above my pc simply tells me "the media could not be played". Any advice from techies on the site?
If you stare at it for too long, it will hypnotise you and make you think Diane Abbott is talking sense.0 -
Any good GE turnout markets out there? Think we will go sub 60%...0
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While you may be right in that she would be a disaster for the party, (but its hard to think she could be/would be worse than Corbyn)YBarddCwsc said:
If I recollect right, she sends her children go to a fee-paying school, and she is a private landlord having purchased former social housing in London to rent out.Danny565 said:I think Thornberry is quite a good spokesperson. She's quite good (by Labour standards) at defending the line in interviews and getting the basic numbers right sounding like she knows what she's talking about.
She'd be awful as the actual leader though, at least if Labour wants to hold working-class Northern and Midlands seats at some point in the future.
I think Jazza’s most attractive feature is that he does try and live by a set of principles he believes in. He has a personal honesty, even if you disagree with him or think he is muddle-headed..
Thornberry doesn’t. Thornberry would be a disaster dwarfing even Miliband and Jazza.
But I disagree with you other wise:
'She sends her kids to fee paying school' - so she recognises that fee paying schools normally produce better results, and cares about her Kids education to send them there - Good for her!!!
He is a 'landlord' - she she has an enterprising streak, good, and possibly recognisees that by being a good landlord you can both make money and your tenants life's better - Good for her!!
She may be an terrible politician, I certainly disagree with her politics but please can we stay away form the ad-homily attacks on her personally.0 -
Not having Trident as a policy does not seem to harm the SNP .Fallon saying he keeps the first strike option open to me is total rubbish in reality .However I agree that Kinnock had to change his mind between 87 and 92 and Labour policy to get a hearing with the wider public.Danny565 said:That said, I don't really think Tories mingling with Assad will be that damaging to them. The thing is that people view both Assad and Putin as bastards, but bastards who aren't out particularly to harm us - and so they're the lesser evil in the current world, as compared to jihadist nutters who really are out to destroy us.
And that's where Corbyn's real vulnerability is, his calling Hamas "friends" and generally giving the impression he'd want to naively "negotiate" with ISIS, mixed together with wanting to scrap Trident, which altogether does make people scared (frankly, even as someone campaigning for Labour, it makes even me a bit scared; my hope/assumption is that, in the incredibly unlikely event of Corbyn winning, he would just focus on domestic matters while the grown-ups in Labour would take charge of all defence/foreign issues).0 -
It would not necessarily be precisely the same but nor should it be that far out.Pulpstar said:
Seriously ?justin124 said:
Those figures were certainly not borne out by the local elections in Scotland a few days later which gave us on first preferences - SNP 32% Con 25% Lab 20%.MarkSenior said:
Plus the fieldwork ended on May 1st so is 2 weeks out of date .kle4 said:
I exclusively take my scotland information from subsamples, so no dice.Scott_P said:https://twitter.com/scotelects/status/863698895423115264
@MrTCHarris: This represents an SNP > Conservative swing of 12% twitter.com/scotelects/sta…
Why the smeg should GE intention voting be borne out for local elections ?!0 -
Layer in Labour voters staying at home and sub 60% very much on...Pulpstar said:
Precedent is 1966 where turnout fell by 1.3% as Wilson called an election to increase his small majority !murali_s said:Any good GE turnout markets out there? Think we will go sub 60%...
That'd put it at 64.1% this time round.0 -
Kinnock reaction to Corbyn & IRA
https://news.google.com/newspapers?nid=2507&dat=19841217&id=iP49AAAAIBAJ&sjid=Y0kMAAAAIBAJ&pg=3074,3464356&hl=en0 -
TSE is truly bitter about the Tories. Did someone insult him or "discriminate" against him. Fallon visited Syria on a multiparty parliamentary jolly at a time when Assad was an ally. Lady Emily is a waste of space.0
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Only a football ground... only a football ground... stay strong scrap.0
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I'm off to see whats left of the Players championship. (golf)0
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I would have thought that Opposition spokesmen getting a tough time from Andrew Neil could respond pretty effectively with something like 'Of course , back in the days when you were working for Conservative Central Office ...' . To be honest, I am surprised it has not already happened over the years - unless I have missed it!0
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That's the subsample from his mega poll (that had 40% SNP 2015 recollection).kle4 said:
I exclusively take my scotland information from subsamples, so no dice.Scott_P said:https://twitter.com/scotelects/status/863698895423115264
@MrTCHarris: This represents an SNP > Conservative swing of 12% twitter.com/scotelects/sta…0 -
ELBOW for week-ending 14th May, seven polls so far - probably incomplete as ICM and Survation yet to come:
Con Lab LD UKIP Tory Lead
23-Apr-17 45.50 26.10 10.40 8.60 19.40
30-Apr-17 46.33 28.11 10.22 6.67 18.22
07-May-17 47.10 28.50 9.40 6.40 18.60
14-May-17 46.86 30.57 9.29 5.43 16.290 -
His megapoll was too Tory as a sample - based on a Tory 9% lead in 2015 - and a 13% LibDem vote share.Alistair said:
That's the subsample from his mega poll (that had 40% SNP 2015 recollection).kle4 said:
I exclusively take my scotland information from subsamples, so no dice.Scott_P said:https://twitter.com/scotelects/status/863698895423115264
@MrTCHarris: This represents an SNP > Conservative swing of 12% twitter.com/scotelects/sta…0 -
Constituencies such as South Sheilds, Leeds East, Coventry North East start heading into play if that happens I reckon.murali_s said:
Layer in Labour voters staying at home and sub 60% very much on...Pulpstar said:
Precedent is 1966 where turnout fell by 1.3% as Wilson called an election to increase his small majority !murali_s said:Any good GE turnout markets out there? Think we will go sub 60%...
That'd put it at 64.1% this time round.0 -
not what NPXXMP is reporting however...TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
What on earth are you wittering on about?perdix said:TSE is truly bitter about the Tories. Did someone insult him or "discriminate" against him. Fallon visited Syria on a multiparty parliamentary jolly at a time when Assad was an ally. Lady Emily is a waste of space.
I'm a huge fan of Micky Fallon, as I said this was a rare mis-step from him.
That Emily Thornberry did this was worthy of discussion, heaven forfend a betting tip/discussion on PB.0 -
I feel your pain, I would have been gutted if we had left Anfield.Scrapheap_as_was said:Only a football ground... only a football ground... stay strong scrap.
Hurrah for FSG.0 -
Mr Corbyn: I made it clear that I felt it important that any individual MP who wishes to meet anyone from anywhere should have the right to do so.CarlottaVance said:Kinnock reaction to Corbyn & IRA
https://news.google.com/newspapers?nid=2507&dat=19841217&id=iP49AAAAIBAJ&sjid=Y0kMAAAAIBAJ&pg=3074,3464356&hl=en
Edit - I do feel for Kinnock sometimes. There was that leaked audio of a speech he gave a year or so ago to Labour MPs, he sounded so distraught and emotional at where he felt Labour was at that moment in time, frustrated at still having the same fights.0 -
But the mealymouthed English b****** didn't answer "no, of course not", did he? That's the point.Cyan said:
That hack's question is moronic. How can the British government "guarantee" what will happen in a Scottish shipyard if Scotland becomes independent? And why on earth should it promise to shift a home defence contract to a newly-become foreign country? Most SNPers who watch the interview will think "What a mealymouthed English b******, cr***ing on Scotland". They won't think "If it became independent, Scotland would lose this kind of employment, so perhaps independence isn't such a good idea after all". They'll probably think his attitude strengthens the case for independence. They don't get it that an rUK government will be expected to put rUK first and will have zero responsibility to look after Scotland or to maintain employment in Scotland. Michael Fallon should have answered "no, of course not".Theuniondivvie said:On topic, I'll never get tired of this.
https://youtu.be/e3Gd9yh4HsI0 -
Oh my the miss of the century.0
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I think if you campaign for ‘social housing for all, not luxury flats for the wealthy’ (as Thornberry did), then you are a hypocrite if you buy social housing, make the tenants homeless and then rent it out.BigRich said:
While you may be right in that she would be a disaster for the party, (but its hard to think she could be/would be worse than Corbyn)YBarddCwsc said:
If I recollect right, she sends her children go to a fee-paying school, and she is a private landlord having purchased former social housing in London to rent out.Danny565 said:I think Thornberry is quite a good spokesperson. She's quite good (by Labour standards) at defending the line in interviews and getting the basic numbers right sounding like she knows what she's talking about.
She'd be awful as the actual leader though, at least if Labour wants to hold working-class Northern and Midlands seats at some point in the future.
I think Jazza’s most attractive feature is that he does try and live by a set of principles he believes in. He has a personal honesty, even if you disagree with him or think he is muddle-headed..
Thornberry doesn’t. Thornberry would be a disaster dwarfing even Miliband and Jazza.
But I disagree with you other wise:
'She sends her kids to fee paying school' - so she recognises that fee paying schools normally produce better results, and cares about her Kids education to send them there - Good for her!!!
He is a 'landlord' - she she has an enterprising streak, good, and possibly recognisees that by being a good landlord you can both make money and your tenants life's better - Good for her!!
She may be an terrible politician, I certainly disagree with her politics but please can we stay away form the ad-homily attacks on her personally.
Similarly, if you campaign for an end to selective education, you are a hypocrite if you then send your children to a fee-paying school.
I think if she was Labour Party leader, there would be rather more examination of her personal circumstances and lifestyle choices than would be comfortable -- either for her, or (perhaps more importantly) for the Labour Party.
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Yes Wilson got a 96 majority in ,1966 with that snap election.I am betting on a 150 Maj for May in this one.Pulpstar said:
Precedent is 1966 where turnout fell by 1.3% as Wilson called an election to increase his small majority !murali_s said:Any good GE turnout markets out there? Think we will go sub 60%...
That'd put it at 64.1% this time round.0 -
And 30% 2010 recollection IIRC.Alistair said:
That's the subsample from his mega poll (that had 40% SNP 2015 recollection).kle4 said:
I exclusively take my scotland information from subsamples, so no dice.Scott_P said:https://twitter.com/scotelects/status/863698895423115264
@MrTCHarris: This represents an SNP > Conservative swing of 12% twitter.com/scotelects/sta…0 -
I'm a mess already...TheScreamingEagles said:
I feel your pain, I would have been gutted if we had left Anfield.Scrapheap_as_was said:Only a football ground... only a football ground... stay strong scrap.
Hurrah for FSG.
https://twitter.com/SpursOfficial/status/8637531701572648970 -
His indy ref polling was probably the most woefully useless of the lot, 2 different pollsters over several months amalgamated if memory serves.Alistair said:
That's the subsample from his mega poll (that had 40% SNP 2015 recollection).kle4 said:
I exclusively take my scotland information from subsamples, so no dice.Scott_P said:https://twitter.com/scotelects/status/863698895423115264
@MrTCHarris: This represents an SNP > Conservative swing of 12% twitter.com/scotelects/sta…0 -
A 2.31% drop in the lead in a week - that's looks like it might be the start of a trend, IMHO.Sunil_Prasannan said:ELBOW for week-ending 14th May, seven polls so far - probably incomplete as ICM and Survation yet to come:
Con Lab LD UKIP Tory Lead
23-Apr-17 45.50 26.10 10.40 8.60 19.40
30-Apr-17 46.33 28.11 10.22 6.67 18.22
07-May-17 47.10 28.50 9.40 6.40 18.60
14-May-17 46.86 30.57 9.29 5.43 16.290 -
James Kelly has almost identical figures. I would posit that Ashcroft is not a million miles out here.Theuniondivvie said:
His indy ref polling was probably the most woefully useless of the lot, 2 different pollsters over several months amalgamated if memory serves.Alistair said:
That's the subsample from his mega poll (that had 40% SNP 2015 recollection).kle4 said:
I exclusively take my scotland information from subsamples, so no dice.Scott_P said:https://twitter.com/scotelects/status/863698895423115264
@MrTCHarris: This represents an SNP > Conservative swing of 12% twitter.com/scotelects/sta…0 -
Probably missed it, but UK polling report saying a YouGov with CON 49 (+2), LAB 31 (+3), LD 9(-2), UKIP 3(-3).
First time YouGov showing LDs in single figures this year it says. Dead and buried.
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/98800 -
Given a choice between believing what Nick Palmer XMP says or what Dennis McGabble XWormwoodScrubs says, then I believe Nick Palmer ever time.Scrapheap_as_was said:
not what NPXXMP is reporting however...TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
Mebbes aye, mebbes naw, my point is really that he indulges in some pretty strange methodology at times. I think Ashcroft's Scottish constituency polling in 2015 was pretty straightforward, and all the better for it.Pulpstar said:
James Kelly has almost identical figures. I would posit that Ashcroft is not a million miles out here.Theuniondivvie said:
His indy ref polling was probably the most woefully useless of the lot, 2 different pollsters over several months amalgamated if memory serves.Alistair said:
That's the subsample from his mega poll (that had 40% SNP 2015 recollection).kle4 said:
I exclusively take my scotland information from subsamples, so no dice.Scott_P said:https://twitter.com/scotelects/status/863698895423115264
@MrTCHarris: This represents an SNP > Conservative swing of 12% twitter.com/scotelects/sta…0 -
Correct, which is wrong in the other direction. I have my theories about the vote recollection but too detailed to type on the phone.kle4 said:
And 30% 2010 recollection IIRC.Alistair said:
That's the subsample from his mega poll (that had 40% SNP 2015 recollection).kle4 said:
I exclusively take my scotland information from subsamples, so no dice.Scott_P said:https://twitter.com/scotelects/status/863698895423115264
@MrTCHarris: This represents an SNP > Conservative swing of 12% twitter.com/scotelects/sta…
The SLab recall figures are hilarious!0 -
SNP low forties, Tories low thirties, Labour nowhere & Lib Dems with the normal massively regional Scots polling we always have.Theuniondivvie said:
Mebbes aye, mebbes naw, my point is really that he indulges in some pretty strange methodology at times. I think Ashcroft's Scottish constituency polling in 2015 was pretty straightforward, and all the better for it.Pulpstar said:
James Kelly has almost identical figures. I would posit that Ashcroft is not a million miles out here.Theuniondivvie said:
His indy ref polling was probably the most woefully useless of the lot, 2 different pollsters over several months amalgamated if memory serves.Alistair said:
That's the subsample from his mega poll (that had 40% SNP 2015 recollection).kle4 said:
I exclusively take my scotland information from subsamples, so no dice.Scott_P said:https://twitter.com/scotelects/status/863698895423115264
@MrTCHarris: This represents an SNP > Conservative swing of 12% twitter.com/scotelects/sta…0 -
Ashcroft's Scottish polling in 2015 wasn't that good, really. I remember he predicted Glasgow North East as a Labour hold - in the event, it was one of the very biggest swings of the lot.Theuniondivvie said:
Mebbes aye, mebbes naw, my point is really that he indulges in some pretty strange methodology at times. I think Ashcroft's Scottish constituency polling in 2015 was pretty straightforward, and all the better for it.Pulpstar said:
James Kelly has almost identical figures. I would posit that Ashcroft is not a million miles out here.Theuniondivvie said:
His indy ref polling was probably the most woefully useless of the lot, 2 different pollsters over several months amalgamated if memory serves.Alistair said:
That's the subsample from his mega poll (that had 40% SNP 2015 recollection).kle4 said:
I exclusively take my scotland information from subsamples, so no dice.Scott_P said:https://twitter.com/scotelects/status/863698895423115264
@MrTCHarris: This represents an SNP > Conservative swing of 12% twitter.com/scotelects/sta…0 -
When the dam breaksDanny565 said:
Ashcroft's Scottish polling in 2015 wasn't that good, really. I remember he predicted Glasgow North East as a Labour hold - in the event, it was one of the very biggest swings of the lot.Theuniondivvie said:
Mebbes aye, mebbes naw, my point is really that he indulges in some pretty strange methodology at times. I think Ashcroft's Scottish constituency polling in 2015 was pretty straightforward, and all the better for it.Pulpstar said:
James Kelly has almost identical figures. I would posit that Ashcroft is not a million miles out here.Theuniondivvie said:
His indy ref polling was probably the most woefully useless of the lot, 2 different pollsters over several months amalgamated if memory serves.Alistair said:
That's the subsample from his mega poll (that had 40% SNP 2015 recollection).kle4 said:
I exclusively take my scotland information from subsamples, so no dice.Scott_P said:https://twitter.com/scotelects/status/863698895423115264
@MrTCHarris: This represents an SNP > Conservative swing of 12% twitter.com/scotelects/sta…
One of the reasons I'd advise against backing Labour in working class non city wards too heavily.
Bolsover at 1-5 looked tempting but I'm not sure Labour really should be 1-5 on there...
(Price last time I looked)0 -
Its a trend in ELBOW, but I doubt its reflected in reality. People might say they are going to vote Labour, but a lot just won't vote for Corbyn. He is toxicity personified... and you haven't got the latest ICM either.BigRich said:
A 2.31% drop in the lead in a week - that's looks like it might be the start of a trend, IMHO.Sunil_Prasannan said:ELBOW for week-ending 14th May, seven polls so far - probably incomplete as ICM and Survation yet to come:
Con Lab LD UKIP Tory Lead
23-Apr-17 45.50 26.10 10.40 8.60 19.40
30-Apr-17 46.33 28.11 10.22 6.67 18.22
07-May-17 47.10 28.50 9.40 6.40 18.60
14-May-17 46.86 30.57 9.29 5.43 16.290 -
A leader might, MIGHT, be able to get away with a commitment to scrapping Trident if they otherwise took a tough stance on terrorism, and were generally regarded as tough and competent. Unfortunately, Corbyn isn't - at all.Yorkcity said:
Not having Trident as a policy does not seem to harm the SNP .Fallon saying he keeps the first strike option open to me is total rubbish in reality .However I agree that Kinnock had to change his mind between 87 and 92 and Labour policy to get a hearing with the wider public.Danny565 said:That said, I don't really think Tories mingling with Assad will be that damaging to them. The thing is that people view both Assad and Putin as bastards, but bastards who aren't out particularly to harm us - and so they're the lesser evil in the current world, as compared to jihadist nutters who really are out to destroy us.
And that's where Corbyn's real vulnerability is, his calling Hamas "friends" and generally giving the impression he'd want to naively "negotiate" with ISIS, mixed together with wanting to scrap Trident, which altogether does make people scared (frankly, even as someone campaigning for Labour, it makes even me a bit scared; my hope/assumption is that, in the incredibly unlikely event of Corbyn winning, he would just focus on domestic matters while the grown-ups in Labour would take charge of all defence/foreign issues).0 -
The lead is not really the interesting trend. Labour and Tories up, UKIP and LD down are the interesting trends.Sunil_Prasannan said:ELBOW for week-ending 14th May, seven polls so far - probably incomplete as ICM and Survation yet to come:
Con Lab LD UKIP Tory Lead
23-Apr-17 45.50 26.10 10.40 8.60 19.40
30-Apr-17 46.33 28.11 10.22 6.67 18.22
07-May-17 47.10 28.50 9.40 6.40 18.60
14-May-17 46.86 30.57 9.29 5.43 16.29
I doubt UKIP can be squeezed much below 4%. How low can the LDs be squeezed?
This truly is a fascinating period for British politics.0 -
What a cool lady. As I said yesterday an ideal replacement for Jeremy.0
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Overall Ashcroft's Scottish Constituency polling was shockingly accurate.Danny565 said:
Ashcroft's Scottish polling in 2015 wasn't that good, really. I remember he predicted Glasgow North East as a Labour hold - in the event, it was one of the very biggest swings of the lot.Theuniondivvie said:
Mebbes aye, mebbes naw, my point is really that he indulges in some pretty strange methodology at times. I think Ashcroft's Scottish constituency polling in 2015 was pretty straightforward, and all the better for it.Pulpstar said:
James Kelly has almost identical figures. I would posit that Ashcroft is not a million miles out here.Theuniondivvie said:
His indy ref polling was probably the most woefully useless of the lot, 2 different pollsters over several months amalgamated if memory serves.Alistair said:
That's the subsample from his mega poll (that had 40% SNP 2015 recollection).kle4 said:
I exclusively take my scotland information from subsamples, so no dice.Scott_P said:https://twitter.com/scotelects/status/863698895423115264
@MrTCHarris: This represents an SNP > Conservative swing of 12% twitter.com/scotelects/sta…0 -
Very true Emily Thornberry was miles better on all the points you mention.Danny565 said:
A leader might, MIGHT, be able to get away with a commitment to scrapping Trident if they otherwise took a tough stance on terrorism, and were generally regarded as tough and competent. Unfortunately, Corbyn isn't - at all.Yorkcity said:
Not having Trident as a policy does not seem to harm the SNP .Fallon saying he keeps the first strike option open to me is total rubbish in reality .However I agree that Kinnock had to change his mind between 87 and 92 and Labour policy to get a hearing with the wider public.Danny565 said:That said, I don't really think Tories mingling with Assad will be that damaging to them. The thing is that people view both Assad and Putin as bastards, but bastards who aren't out particularly to harm us - and so they're the lesser evil in the current world, as compared to jihadist nutters who really are out to destroy us.
And that's where Corbyn's real vulnerability is, his calling Hamas "friends" and generally giving the impression he'd want to naively "negotiate" with ISIS, mixed together with wanting to scrap Trident, which altogether does make people scared (frankly, even as someone campaigning for Labour, it makes even me a bit scared; my hope/assumption is that, in the incredibly unlikely event of Corbyn winning, he would just focus on domestic matters while the grown-ups in Labour would take charge of all defence/foreign issues).0 -
Question. With Ireland playing NZ in a ODI, do the Brits support Ireland or NZ?0
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http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2015/02/glasgow-north-east/Alistair said:
Overall Ashcroft's Scottish Constituency polling was shockingly accurate.Danny565 said:
Ashcroft's Scottish polling in 2015 wasn't that good, really. I remember he predicted Glasgow North East as a Labour hold - in the event, it was one of the very biggest swings of the lot.Theuniondivvie said:
Mebbes aye, mebbes naw, my point is really that he indulges in some pretty strange methodology at times. I think Ashcroft's Scottish constituency polling in 2015 was pretty straightforward, and all the better for it.Pulpstar said:
James Kelly has almost identical figures. I would posit that Ashcroft is not a million miles out here.Theuniondivvie said:
His indy ref polling was probably the most woefully useless of the lot, 2 different pollsters over several months amalgamated if memory serves.Alistair said:
That's the subsample from his mega poll (that had 40% SNP 2015 recollection).kle4 said:
I exclusively take my scotland information from subsamples, so no dice.Scott_P said:https://twitter.com/scotelects/status/863698895423115264
@MrTCHarris: This represents an SNP > Conservative swing of 12% twitter.com/scotelects/sta…
http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2015/02/coatbridge-chryston-bellshill/
The polls were in February, I think the SNP surge was still taking place at that point.0 -
F1: my post-race ramble (obviously spoiler-laden, so don't click if you're waiting for the highlights) is here:
http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2017/05/spain-post-race-analysis-2017.html0 -
Is it? A one party state (who also control the press and establishment) healthy for UK democracy? Very desperate times for the UK...MTimT said:
The lead is not really the interesting trend. Labour and Tories up, UKIP and LD down are the interesting trends.Sunil_Prasannan said:ELBOW for week-ending 14th May, seven polls so far - probably incomplete as ICM and Survation yet to come:
Con Lab LD UKIP Tory Lead
23-Apr-17 45.50 26.10 10.40 8.60 19.40
30-Apr-17 46.33 28.11 10.22 6.67 18.22
07-May-17 47.10 28.50 9.40 6.40 18.60
14-May-17 46.86 30.57 9.29 5.43 16.29
I doubt UKIP can be squeezed much below 4%. How low can the LDs be squeezed?
This truly is a fascinating period for British politics.0 -
It does look like the Dims are being squeezed, but I still think Labour are being significantly overstated. I just cannot believe they are polling better than Milibnad was. If they are, it makes a mockery of the moderates claim that one of their own would make a better leader. Remember Labour's 2015 front bench contained the vast majority of all of the touted leadership contenders. Collectively they achieved less than 32%. If Corbyn matches that (and I think that's highly improbable), it will lead to a Labour split, there's no question about that.kle4 said:Probably missed it, but UK polling report saying a YouGov with CON 49 (+2), LAB 31 (+3), LD 9(-2), UKIP 3(-3).
First time YouGov showing LDs in single figures this year it says. Dead and buried.
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/98800 -
IMHO, a party could get elected on a socialist economic programme, from time to time, if it was led by patriots, like Attlee's government.Danny565 said:
A leader might, MIGHT, be able to get away with a commitment to scrapping Trident if they otherwise took a tough stance on terrorism, and were generally regarded as tough and competent. Unfortunately, Corbyn isn't - at all.Yorkcity said:
Not having Trident as a policy does not seem to harm the SNP .Fallon saying he keeps the first strike option open to me is total rubbish in reality .However I agree that Kinnock had to change his mind between 87 and 92 and Labour policy to get a hearing with the wider public.Danny565 said:That said, I don't really think Tories mingling with Assad will be that damaging to them. The thing is that people view both Assad and Putin as bastards, but bastards who aren't out particularly to harm us - and so they're the lesser evil in the current world, as compared to jihadist nutters who really are out to destroy us.
And that's where Corbyn's real vulnerability is, his calling Hamas "friends" and generally giving the impression he'd want to naively "negotiate" with ISIS, mixed together with wanting to scrap Trident, which altogether does make people scared (frankly, even as someone campaigning for Labour, it makes even me a bit scared; my hope/assumption is that, in the incredibly unlikely event of Corbyn winning, he would just focus on domestic matters while the grown-ups in Labour would take charge of all defence/foreign issues).
But, left wing economics, combined with hostility towards one's country is an electoral dead end.0 -
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The idea that Thornberry would be worse than Corbyn is for the birds. In fact even McIRA would be better as he'd fool more people than Corbyn.0
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In the absence of Con-Lab switches, how much more can be squeezed from UKIP and Libs?BigRich said:
A 2.31% drop in the lead in a week - that's looks like it might be the start of a trend, IMHO.Sunil_Prasannan said:ELBOW for week-ending 14th May, seven polls so far - probably incomplete as ICM and Survation yet to come:
Con Lab LD UKIP Tory Lead
23-Apr-17 45.50 26.10 10.40 8.60 19.40
30-Apr-17 46.33 28.11 10.22 6.67 18.22
07-May-17 47.10 28.50 9.40 6.40 18.60
14-May-17 46.86 30.57 9.29 5.43 16.290