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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » UKIP: circling the whirlpool

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  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,487
    Mr. Doethur, good point.

    I'd like to apologise to idiots, everywhere.
  • EssexitEssexit Posts: 1,965
    Barnesian said:

    Yes - he's preaching to the 48%. But he's got them all to himself. The 52% are shared between Conservative, Labour and UKIP.
    Lib Dem vote share ~ 10% < 48%
    Other 3 vote share ~ 75% > 52%
  • Barnesian said:

    Yes - he's preaching to the 48%. But he's got them all to himself. The 52% are shared between Conservative, Labour and UKIP.
    I know plenty of soft Remain voters who wouldn't go anywhere near the Lib Dems.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,575

    Mr. Doethur, good point.

    I'd like to apologise to idiots, everywhere.

    Maybe you should consider extending that to morons too...

    Brown is a one-off, the very nonpareil. Let us thank God for that small mercy.

    If you want a good insult, think of that Icelandic one after he destroyed their only sound bank: 'Brown is the colour of poo.'
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,789

    My countrymen have been let down almost as many times as the Irish by the right wing, English-nationalist establishment.

    The Brexit vote - which was a huge blow for Ireland - happened in the 21st century, of course.

    theyve been let down by the left wing, by the centre, by the irish too. Nobody has a monopoly on screwing up.

    Whether Brexit is a huge blow for Ireland remains to be seen since nothing has happened yet. none of the irish people I talk to get as excited about it as you. The biggest blow they say they have had this century has been the death of the Celtic Tiger and the "support" they have received from Mrs Merkel in grinding their noses to the floor to pay her banks back.

  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,017

    Mr. Observer, if a man's solution to his mother's low ceiling is to cut off her head, it's better to stick with your original problem. Fatal medicine's no way to fight a disease.

    Brown's a moron.

    Mr. Observer (2), you're still going on about English nationalists, who don't even have a party, whilst the SNP wants another referendum three years after their once-in-a-generation vote and the imbecile Brown is seeking to throw more powers to Scotland (with no devolution for England).

    Honestly. I fear you're missing the point as much as a man who throws out a superfine nymphomaniac and her twin sister because they didn't fold their clothes up when they disrobed...

    Right wing English nationalists have two parties - the Conservatives and UKIP.

    Brown is making suggestions for Scotland. He is a Scot who lives in Scotland and wants to preserve the Union. Our English nationalist government seems to think that a UK constructed on its terms is the way to hold things together. I fear that is incorrect. We shall see,

  • ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    Barnesian said:

    Yes - he's preaching to the 48%. But he's got them all to himself. The 52% are shared between Conservative, Labour and UKIP.
    His problem is that by the next election, we will have Left - and there won't be anywhere near 48% support for a Rejoin proposition.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,886

    We either choose to negotiate around the deal the EU offers us or we walk away and inflict immense damage on ourselves. We know this (see David Davis and the Brexit committee this week) and the EU knows this. It has been clear since the very start. The swivel-eyed Tory right wingers in the Commons and the press are clearly gunning for the walking away option now and May will do nothing to upset the Four Editors of the Brexopalypse, so that is what is likely to happen. The Europeans will, of course, be blamed.

    Essentially I think the EU offers a menu to choose from:

    1. Full membership
    2. Close association based on the "four freedoms" and acceptance of EU rules. EEA or similar.
    3. Association agreement with customs union, setting out areas of cooperation and standardisation
    4. Association agreement without customs union.

    I don't see the EU moving away substantially from those options. Assuming that, do you think Theresa May will reject them all?
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    FF43 said:

    Was Enda Kenny's threat to not sign a deal with hard borders in Ireland aimed at the UK or the EU?. I assumed the former. Either way it's a empty threat because no deal means the hardest borders.

    AFAIK there's no serious talk in Ireland to leave the EU.It transformed an economically depressed country into one of the most prosperous states in Europe. Ireland is an EU success story
    And I assume it was aimed at the EU ;)

    The NI border is, of course, an important consideration for the UK, but it's only one consideration in a package around a larger deal. And under QMV, Ireland has no veto. So it must refer to their willingness to accept hard borders on an ongoing basis - which has to be aimed at the EU [with the UK it is either hard borders or it is not hard borders]
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    edited March 2017

    Mr. Observer, if a man's solution to his mother's low ceiling is to cut off her head, it's better to stick with your original problem. Fatal medicine's no way to fight a disease.

    Brown's a moron.

    Mr. Observer (2), you're still going on about English nationalists, who don't even have a party, whilst the SNP wants another referendum three years after their once-in-a-generation vote and the imbecile Brown is seeking to throw more powers to Scotland (with no devolution for England).

    Honestly. I fear you're missing the point as much as a man who throws out a superfine nymphomaniac and her twin sister because they didn't fold their clothes up when they disrobed...

    Jilted John agrees


    video removed as Saville was introducing it
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,017

    By calling other parties names?

    Good luck with that......

    If other parties - which also throw names about - do not have the sense or imagination to see beyond what are essentially throwaway lines that all politicians engage in then I am afraid that is not Brown's fault.

  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422

    If other parties - which also throw names about - do not have the sense or imagination to see beyond what are essentially throwaway lines that all politicians engage in then I am afraid that is not Brown's fault
    It's not Brown's fault he's not a statesman?

    Glad we cleared that up.....
  • ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133

    the SNP wants another referendum three years after their once-in-a-generation vote

    I knew life expectancy was lower in Scotland but I didn't realise that it was that bad!

  • MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    Sturgeon and Salmond have jumped the shark.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,017
    FF43 said:

    Essentially I think the EU offers a menu to choose from:

    1. Full membership
    2. Close association based on the "four freedoms" and acceptance of EU rules. EEA or similar.
    3. Association agreement with customs union, setting out areas of cooperation and standardisation
    4. Association agreement without customs union.

    I don't see the EU moving away substantially from those options. Assuming that, do you think Theresa May will reject them all?

    I think May will do what the Tory press allows her to do, so it is likely to be 4 or no deal. I did believe for quite a while that we would end up with something that stood between 2 and 3, but the way she has left Hammond out to dry shows that she has no stomach for any kind of fight with the Mail, Express, Sun or Telegraph and so has thrown her lot in with the swivel-eyed right.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,107

    The question is, when are they "sticking up for Scotland " and when are they "sticking up for the SNP"?

    Thank Goodness - the Four Day War is Over
    Well, I’m glad that’s over and we can all get on with our lives, undisturbed by the prospect of a two-year campaign leading to indyRef2. Launched on Monday, sunk on Thursday – a mercifully short voyage.

    Nicola Sturgeon’s unlikely success in allowing a Tory Prime Minister to speak for the great Scottish majority – who did not want to kick off another referendum, 30 months after the last one – is unlikely to be looked back on as her finest hour.


    https://www.google.co.uk/amp/www.scotsman.com/news/opinion/brian-wilson-thank-goodness-the-four-day-war-is-over-1-4394217/amp

    I fear the writer is a little optimistic, but Mrs McTrump appears to be back pedalling.....
    He is also a nutjob, ex labour loser.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180

    good to see your views are so firmly rooted in the nineteenth century

    and shouldnt that be "english" so you can get back to loathing your fellow country men
    In other news SO gets out of bed on the wrong side - must be one of those days with a y in it.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,017

    theyve been let down by the left wing, by the centre, by the irish too. Nobody has a monopoly on screwing up.

    Whether Brexit is a huge blow for Ireland remains to be seen since nothing has happened yet. none of the irish people I talk to get as excited about it as you. The biggest blow they say they have had this century has been the death of the Celtic Tiger and the "support" they have received from Mrs Merkel in grinding their noses to the floor to pay her banks back.

    Yep, we clearly speak to very different people.

    There is screwing up and there is seeing things through a lens which automatically excludes. That's my problem with the right wing English nationalists who have captured the Conservative party and who led the Leave campaign.

  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,487
    Mr. Observer, that doesn't address the fundamental imbalance of devolution. Throw a raft of new powers at Holyrood, and then what? Let Scottish MPs vote on matters that don't affect their constituents? That's neither fair nor sustainable.

    Or curtail Scottish MPs' voting rights? That'd go down well.

    There are only two sustainable options: abolish devolution, or establish an English Parliament.

    Constantly throwing power at Holyrood whilst providing nothing for England is democratically unacceptable. If the Scots want independence, let them vote for it. If they want to be in the UK, let them vote for it. But there's no way it's just to have Scotland's financial sector backed up by the English taxpayer whilst devolved power resides in Scotland, yet Scottish MPs can vote on English-only matters *and* there's no English Parliament.

    If you're concerned about English nationalism, then you should be worried about Brown's idiotic (sorry, idiots) comments, because it's hard to think of anything he could say that would piss off the English more than the idea of throwing ever more power to Holyrood whilst the ultimate financial responsibility is borne by an English electorate that has no Parliament.

    There's also the neverendum. Suppose Scots vote to stay. And then the SNP sings from Brown's ridiculous hymn sheet. And May doesn't give them all the sweeties they want. It'd be another pretext for another referendum. Brown's throwing grist into the grievance mill because he's a short-sighted oaf. All tactics, no strategy.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,527
    Charles said:

    That's why we won't play the card. Everyone knows it exists, that's all that matters

    You've really never done much negotiating, have you?
    Another card in our hand is British forces in the Baltic States.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,107
    Charles said:
    No it means no deal and out on your *rse
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180
    FF43 said:

    Was Enda Kenny's threat to not sign a deal with hard borders in Ireland aimed at the UK or the EU?. I assumed the former. Either way it's a empty threat because no deal means the hardest borders.

    AFAIK there's no serious talk in Ireland to leave the EU.It transformed an economically depressed country into one of the most prosperous states in Europe. Ireland is an EU success story
    Ahem.... up to a point Lord Copper - plenty of Irish folk might beg to differ on that one.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,886

    The borders will be what the British and Irish want them to be. If the EU doesn't like it, what are they going to do?
    To some extent I agree. There will be a lot of fudge, which will result in Northern Ireland pivoting more to the South and away from the UK, without Ireland formally becoming a unitary state. It doesn't deal with all Ireland's issues as their accommodation of the North won't be reciprocated by the UK towards them. That's a negotiating card for us in an otherwise weak hand.
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    UKIP... down the U-bend.


    Unless, of course, Brexit requires any sort of compromise, in which case the Kipper Outrage Bus will be turbo boosted.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180
    Barnesian said:

    Yes - he's preaching to the 48%. But he's got them all to himself. The 52% are shared between Conservative, Labour and UKIP.
    Hmmm - all the polling suggests you're wrong there.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,107
    Charles said:

    That's why we won't play the card. Everyone knows it exists, that's all that matters

    You've really never done much negotiating, have you?
    No doubt you will be an expert, all that ordering about of footmen and butlers with your silver spoon honed your skills, add a dash of pomposity and hey voila.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 9,082
    Essexit said:

    Lib Dem vote share ~ 10% < 48%
    Other 3 vote share ~ 75% > 52%
    Lots to go for.
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,378
    If a majority of Scots want to leave, they should be allowed to do so.

    But Nicola is behaving like a spoilt child. "It's not fair if the UK is Brexiting, our view should take precedence."

    The cry of a six-year-old. Even if we lost our marbles and said. "Yes,dear, anything you say, dear, of course we won't leave the EU if you don't want us too." - does anyone think that would pacify her?

    Within days, there'd be another grievance.

    Unlike a six-year-old, she does know what she wants. She exists to leave the UK, no matter what.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,107

    Broon to the rescue!

    https://twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/843006167836254209

    Bad idea. If Scotland leaves the United Kingdom, they'd claim the 'Scotland' bit, however nonsensical that might be. If you want to change the name, call it 'Bank of United Kingdom'.....not that I'd bother.....

    Scotland already own part of it you dumpling.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,527

    theyve been let down by the left wing, by the centre, by the irish too. Nobody has a monopoly on screwing up.

    Whether Brexit is a huge blow for Ireland remains to be seen since nothing has happened yet. none of the irish people I talk to get as excited about it as you. The biggest blow they say they have had this century has been the death of the Celtic Tiger and the "support" they have received from Mrs Merkel in grinding their noses to the floor to pay her banks back.

    After 95 years of independence, such problems as the Irish Republic has are the fault of their own politicians, not Britain.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,487
    Mr. G, indeed, Brown's proposal to rename the Bank of England is more bullshit.

    Reminds me a bit of when Goldsmith (attorney general) wanted to change the words of God Save the Queen to make it more inclusive.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    Wills & Kate doing their bit for the Entente Cordiale by reminding everyone how short Hollande (who eh? - ed.) is:

    https://twitter.com/Le_Figaro/status/843004516362584064
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,107

    When it comes down to it English Tories only want a UK that exists on English Tory terms.

    None more than Carlotta the faux Margaret Thatcher impersonator
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,100
    Refreshing intervention from Brown. So nice to hear a constructive voice. Makes a change from the sterile Tory/SNP debate.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    malcolmg said:

    No doubt you will be an expert, all that ordering about of footmen and butlers with your silver spoon honed your skills, add a dash of pomposity and hey voila.
    Wouldn't pretend to be an expert. But big companies hire me to negotiate on their behalf. Given that I'm not cheap (I don't get out of bed for less than $1 million) I guess they think I add value.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    malcolmg said:

    Scotland already own part of it you dumpling.
    Its the Bank of England numpty.. Jocks own 0%
  • HaroldOHaroldO Posts: 1,185
    Brown has been looking for a soapbox to get on since he lost the only job he ever wanted, he could have become a wise old head in the HoC but he barely turns up so he has turned to making proposals via the media.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,789

    Yep, we clearly speak to very different people.

    There is screwing up and there is seeing things through a lens which automatically excludes. That's my problem with the right wing English nationalists who have captured the Conservative party and who led the Leave campaign.

    madness

  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486

    Meeks and that lot have already criticised him as much as they are going to.
    Erm... He's an opposition leader. Not part of a governing party that's meant to take all views into consideration. Nice try, though
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,107

    You make it sound like the Scottish Parliament doesn't exist.
    He is not stupid like you and understands that whilst there is a parliament there is no power as we see this week. An unelected PM who has one MP in a country can dictate to that country against its wishes. Power devolved is power retained.
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,331
    isam said:
    Looks to me as if he's been eating a few pasties since he last popped up on the news.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,487
    Mr. O, turned* up. I believe he stood down in 2015.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    edited March 2017
    malcolmg said:

    Scotland already own part of it you dumpling.
    Technically you don't - it's 100% owned by HMT.

    But in a negotiated settlement you'd have an argument for a pro rata share of its net asset value. As of 30 September that was £3.4 billion. I wouldn't have thought that £350 million is the most important thing for you to focus on, but each to their own...
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,432
    Morning all. What is the Trump administration doing with these GCHQ claims? I can't see how McMaster survives given he has effectively called his boss a liar by apologising.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,017

    Mr. Observer, that doesn't address the fundamental imbalance of devolution. Throw a raft of new powers at Holyrood, and then what? Let Scottish MPs vote on matters that don't affect their constituents? That's neither fair nor sustainable.

    Or curtail Scottish MPs' voting rights? That'd go down well.

    There are only two sustainable options: abolish devolution, or establish an English Parliament.

    Constantly throwing power at Holyrood whilst providing nothing for England is democratically unacceptable. If the Scots want independence, let them vote for it. If they want to be in the UK, let them vote for it. But there's no way it's just to have Scotland's financial sector backed up by the English taxpayer whilst devolved power resides in Scotland, yet Scottish MPs can vote on English-only matters *and* there's no English Parliament.

    If you're concerned about English nationalism, then you should be worried about Brown's idiotic (sorry, idiots) comments, because it's hard to think of anything he could say that would piss off the English more than the idea of throwing ever more power to Holyrood whilst the ultimate financial responsibility is borne by an English electorate that has no Parliament.

    There's also the neverendum. Suppose Scots vote to stay. And then the SNP sings from Brown's ridiculous hymn sheet. And May doesn't give them all the sweeties they want. It'd be another pretext for another referendum. Brown's throwing grist into the grievance mill because he's a short-sighted oaf. All tactics, no strategy.

    I am afraid I do not share your view of the English, but I agree that the right wing English nationalists who are in government at Westminster should be focused on devising a constitutional settlement that works for all parts of the UK. Unfortunately, they do not seem to want to.

  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,862
    Charles said:

    Wouldn't pretend to be an expert. But big companies hire me to negotiate on their behalf. Given that I'm not cheap (I don't get out of bed for less than $1 million) I guess they think I add value.
    Sensible of you to refuse payment in GBP.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Sensible of you to refuse payment in GBP.
    I've priced in dollars for the last 20 years. I'll accept payment in whatever liquid currency people will give me :smiley:
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,789
    edited March 2017
    Sean_F said:

    After 95 years of independence, such problems as the Irish Republic has are the fault of their own politicians, not Britain.
    chortle

    but there's that huge comfort blanket called blame the brits

    Ireland didnt actually get anywhere until it got rid of DeValera
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,487
    Mr. Observer, in the short term, leaving the EU is the top priority, but I do agree the constitutional arrangements need resolving.

    I'm still baffled by your idea we have English nationalists in power.

    Anyway, at least the rugby will provide some unity. We can cheer the Scots on as they spank the Italians, the Welsh as they rout the French, and the English as they play the Irish [ok, maybe not total unity on that last one].
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,107
    kle4 said:

    Rewarding the SNP with more power sticks in the craw, but I'd guess even more would be popular in Scotland.

    They have very very little power , it is 90% retained by Westminster as we see. Your view that Scotland should not be allowed to make decisions for Scotland is exactly why we need out of the dictatorship.
  • Mr. Observer, in the short term, leaving the EU is the top priority, but I do agree the constitutional arrangements need resolving.

    I'm still baffled by your idea we have English nationalists in power.

    Anyway, at least the rugby will provide some unity. We can cheer the Scots on as they spank the Italians, the Welsh as they rout the French, and the English as they play the Irish [ok, maybe not total unity on that last one].

    I'm a nasty EngNat. I want the Scots and Welsh to both lose! Today will be a fine day to be an Englishman
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,017
    Charles said:

    Wouldn't pretend to be an expert. But big companies hire me to negotiate on their behalf. Given that I'm not cheap (I don't get out of bed for less than $1 million) I guess they think I add value.

    Nice work if you can get it. But paying $1 million in order to be able to blame someone else is probably worth it.

  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,401
    I might be in a minority on the Right here who think Gordon Brown is onto something with his comments.

    But, I have been saying on here for some months that Holyrood should gain EU powers post Brexit, as has Michael Gove.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,487
    Mr. Stopper, you deplorable!
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,527

    chortle

    but there's that huge comfort blanket called blame the brits

    Ireland didnt actually get anywhere until it got rid of DeValera
    His dream of a Gaelic-speaking, morally pure, devoutly Catholic, autarkic nation turned out be a blind alley.

  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,360

    Mr. Observer, if a man's solution to his mother's low ceiling is to cut off her head, it's better to stick with your original problem. Fatal medicine's no way to fight a disease.

    Brown's a moron.

    Mr. Observer (2), you're still going on about English nationalists, who don't even have a party, whilst the SNP wants another referendum three years after their once-in-a-generation vote and the imbecile Brown is seeking to throw more powers to Scotland (with no devolution for England).

    Honestly. I fear you're missing the point as much as a man who throws out a superfine nymphomaniac and her twin sister because they didn't fold their clothes up when they disrobed...

    Poor old England, desperately wanting and needing a 'nationalist' party and being prohibited by law from having one. It's a democratic outrage, so it is.

  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,017
    Sean_F said:

    After 95 years of independence, such problems as the Irish Republic has are the fault of their own politicians, not Britain.

    Yep - they should have realised that the Brits can never, ever be trusted to act in Ireland's best interests. That was undoubtedly naïve. I suspect that the lesson has finally been learned.

  • stodgestodge Posts: 14,485
    Morning all :)

    Interesting piece for which, as always, many thanks to David H.

    The Conservatives moved steadily away from the EU following Mrs Thatcher's Bruges Speech and the ERM debacle which caused significant economic damage (and political damage to the Conservatives). September 1992, though hailed by many now as a great success, was of course an unmitigated political disaster for the Major Government.

    At a stroke, the party's reputation for sound economic management was destroyed and the road to the 1997 rout was opened. At the same time, there was growing resentment and some of the measures included in Maastricht and other treaties notably those on working hours and workers; rights.

    To take it a step further, the European model of industrial relations and the European notion of the relationship between worker, employer and State was radically different to the Anglo-Saxon (or indeed the Japanese) model. The notion the State could decide how long someone could work in a week was anathema to many employers (and indeed some workers).

    Once the Conservatives were swept into Opposition in 1997, however, none of that mattered much. Yet the resentment was further fueled by Blair abandoning the Thatcher rebates, rejecting some of the Masastricht opt-outs and of course the "number" of immigrants coming from the newer members of the EU to the UK post 2005.

    The EU moved to deeper integration via Lisbon and while referenda were happening in other countries and were promised by all parties here, the failure of any such referendum to occur in 2008-10 was the rocket boost UKIP needed. Had we been asked about Lisbon, we might have said, we might have said no but the boil would have been lanced. Instead, it festered on even as the Coalition took over.

    Ultimately, it was Cameron's fear of losing substantial votes to UKIP that prompted him to offer the referendum - perhaps he thought he wouldn't get a majority and could blame the LDs if he couldn't deliver but the commitment, backed by the fear of a Labour/SNP Government propelled the Conservatives to a narrow majority and Cameron was forced to deliver on his commitment - it would have been suicide if he hadn't, it turned out to be murder because he did.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,789
    Sean_F said:

    His dream of a Gaelic-speaking, morally pure, devoutly Catholic, autarkic nation turned out be a blind alley.

    North Korea with potatoes
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,017

    I might be in a minority on the Right here who think Gordon Brown is onto something with his comments.

    But, I have been saying on here for some months that Holyrood should gain EU powers post Brexit, as has Michael Gove.

    Yes, you have. And hats off to you for that. It would be nice to think that somewhere someone in government is beginning to realise that the current settlement is not sustainable and that now is the time to be thinking about this and acting on it.

  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,017

    Poor old England, desperately wanting and needing a 'nationalist' party and being prohibited by law from having one. It's a democratic outrage, so it is.

    It's got two!! And one of them runs the country.

  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,527

    Yep - they should have realised that the Brits can never, ever be trusted to act in Ireland's best interests. That was undoubtedly naïve. I suspect that the lesson has finally been learned.

    It's a foreign country. We have no moral obligation to act in their best interests, any more than they have a moral obligation to act in our best interests.

    In any case, the banking crisis, high unemployment, political corruption, the scandals in Mother and Baby homes weren't caused by us. Independence means owning up to one's own mistakes, not blaming them on outsiders.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,107
    Charles said:

    Wouldn't pretend to be an expert. But big companies hire me to negotiate on their behalf. Given that I'm not cheap (I don't get out of bed for less than $1 million) I guess they think I add value.
    Arrogance and deriding other people does not make me think you would be any good. Keep waving that silver spoon. Even Trump can make millions when he is handed Daddy's money to start off.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,679
    Interesting article, as always from David. I think UKIP still has a nebulous but powerful appeal as the "outsiders" party, the people who say stuff that Westminster doesn't. It's a politician's mistake to see their support as mostly about Brexit - the polls have always been right that EU membership was a minority preoccupation, though everyone accepts that thre coming negotiations are important (if, they might add, boring to keep talking about),

    UKIP has been about immigration plus "we're for the ordinary bloke". They don't really have to do anything to maintain that, except make mildly outrageous commens onw and then (copyirght D. Trump) - enough to stay in the news, not enough to get generally seen as neo-Nazis. I think there's 10% audience for that, indefinitely.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,862
    stodge said:

    The Conservatives moved steadily away from the EU following Mrs Thatcher's Bruges Speech and the ERM debacle which caused significant economic damage (and political damage to the Conservatives). September 1992, though hailed by many now as a great success, was of course an unmitigated political disaster for the Major Government.

    At a stroke, the party's reputation for sound economic management was destroyed and the road to the 1997 rout was opened.

    Lightening sometimes strikes twice.

    The ERM debacle was in part caused by an inability to recognise the realities of our position relative to Germany. The coming Article 50 debacle will have many of the same political characteristics.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,862

    North Korea with potatoes
    What was it you were saying about loathing your fellow countrymen?
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,360

    It's got two!! And one of them runs the country.

    At least two!
    Aye, I was being a tad tic.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,789

    What was it you were saying about loathing your fellow countrymen?
    DeValera isnt Ireland

    arguably he wasnt even Irish
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,107
    Charles said:

    Technically you don't - it's 100% owned by HMT.

    But in a negotiated settlement you'd have an argument for a pro rata share of its net asset value. As of 30 September that was £3.4 billion. I wouldn't have thought that £350 million is the most important thing for you to focus on, but each to their own...
    No matter how you cut it or try to obfuscate, Scotland owns a share and a share of all the assets held within it. As part of all the other assets of the UK it has a value , I would not be so blase as say £350M is a mere bagatelle but then I was not born with a silver spoon in my mouth.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 14,485

    I might be in a minority on the Right here who think Gordon Brown is onto something with his comments.

    But, I have been saying on here for some months that Holyrood should gain EU powers post Brexit, as has Michael Gove.

    I must admit I've read Brown's comments with interest. The last thing we need is more powers ending up at Westminster and Whitehall. We are already, thanks to successive Conservative and Labour Governments, excessively centralised.

    The idea of Scotland, Wales and NI acting more akin to German Lander in terms of powers is one worth considering. There are a great many areas where full and proper devolution of powers should happen and within England to the existing local structures (no need for extra tiers or regional assemblies).

  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    HaroldO said:

    Brown has been looking for a soapbox to get on since he lost the only job he ever wanted, he could have become a wise old head in the HoC but he barely turns up so he has turned to making proposals via the media.

    Errrrrr
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,360
    Alistair said:

    Errrrrr
    Lolz.
    No one can say Gordon (or Darling) didn't have enough smarts to swerve that particular electoral humiliation.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,401
    stodge said:

    Morning all :)

    Interesting piece for which, as always, many thanks to David H.

    The Conservatives moved steadily away from the EU following Mrs Thatcher's Bruges Speech and the ERM debacle which caused significant economic damage (and political damage to the Conservatives). September 1992, though hailed by many now as a great success, was of course an unmitigated political disaster for the Major Government.

    At a stroke, the party's reputation for sound economic management was destroyed and the road to the 1997 rout was opened. At the same time, there was growing resentment and some of the measures included in Maastricht and other treaties notably those on working hours and workers; rights.

    To take it a step further, the European model of industrial relations and the European notion of the relationship between worker, employer and State was radically different to the Anglo-Saxon (or indeed the Japanese) model. The notion the State could decide how long someone could work in a week was anathema to many employers (and indeed some workers).

    Once the Conservatives were swept into Opposition in 1997, however, none of that mattered much. Yet the resentment was further fueled by Blair abandoning the Thatcher rebates, rejecting some of the Masastricht opt-outs and of course the "number" of immigrants coming from the newer members of the EU to the UK post 2005.

    The EU moved to deeper integration via Lisbon and while referenda were happening in other countries and were promised by all parties here, the failure of any such referendum to occur in 2008-10 was the rocket boost UKIP needed. Had we been asked about Lisbon, we might have said, we might have said no but the boil would have been lanced. Instead, it festered on even as the Coalition took over.

    Ultimately, it was Cameron's fear of losing substantial votes to UKIP that prompted him to offer the referendum - perhaps he thought he wouldn't get a majority and could blame the LDs if he couldn't deliver but the commitment, backed by the fear of a Labour/SNP Government propelled the Conservatives to a narrow majority and Cameron was forced to deliver on his commitment - it would have been suicide if he hadn't, it turned out to be murder because he did.

    If you ask the people, you have to prepared for them telling you something you don't want to hear.

    But, if you don't, you might get something even worse.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,401
    stodge said:

    I must admit I've read Brown's comments with interest. The last thing we need is more powers ending up at Westminster and Whitehall. We are already, thanks to successive Conservative and Labour Governments, excessively centralised.

    The idea of Scotland, Wales and NI acting more akin to German Lander in terms of powers is one worth considering. There are a great many areas where full and proper devolution of powers should happen and within England to the existing local structures (no need for extra tiers or regional assemblies).

    You are sensible.

    I'd be open to full cross-party constitutional convention post-Brexit.

    If the UK is to be a great success post-Brexit, we absolutely must hold the whole country together.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,401

    Yes, you have. And hats off to you for that. It would be nice to think that somewhere someone in government is beginning to realise that the current settlement is not sustainable and that now is the time to be thinking about this and acting on it.

    Thanks.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,360
    'So George, I have a few ideas about what editorial lines you could take.'

    https://twitter.com/shaunwalker7/status/843031634131763201
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    If only Holyrood had power over:

    agriculture, forestry and fisheries
    education and training
    environment
    health and social services
    housing
    law and order
    local government
    sport and the arts
    tourism and economic development


    Welfare...

    SNP criticised for leaving welfare powers with Whitehall

    http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/14885035.SNP_criticised_for_leaving_welfare_powers_with_Whitehall/
  • stodgestodge Posts: 14,485


    If you ask the people, you have to prepared for them telling you something you don't want to hear.

    But, if you don't, you might get something even worse.

    Yes, as a Lib Dem, I am ashamed of my party's record in this. We promised a referendum on Lisbon and granted we were an opposition party at the time, that was as far as we could go.

    The Coalition could and should have held a referendum on EU membership (instead of AV) in 2011. Had they done so, we would be in a very different place now.

    Never offering a referendum and arguing that a GE is the place where decisions are taken is a coherent position but to offer a referendum and then reject that offer is dreadful and something for which all the three parties are culpable.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,527
    stodge said:

    Morning all :)

    Interesting piece for which, as always, many thanks to David H.

    The Conservatives moved steadily away from the EU following Mrs Thatcher's Bruges Speech and the ERM debacle which caused significant economic damage (and political damage to the Conservatives). September 1992, though hailed by many now as a great success, was of course an unmitigated political disaster for the Major Government.

    At a stroke, the party's reputation for sound economic management was destroyed and the road to the 1997 rout was opened. At the same time, there was growing resentment and some of the measures included in Maastricht and other treaties notably those on working hours and workers; rights.

    To take it a step further, the European model of industrial relations and the European notion of the relationship between worker, employer and State was radically different to the Anglo-Saxon (or indeed the Japanese) model. The notion the State could decide how long someone could work in a week was anathema to many employers (and indeed some workers).

    Once the Conservatives were swept into Opposition in 1997, however, none of that mattered much. Yet the resentment was further fueled by Blair abandoning the Thatcher rebates, rejecting some of the Masastricht opt-outs and of course the "number" of immigrants coming from the newer members of the EU to the UK post 2005.

    The EU moved to deeper integration via Lisbon and while referenda were happening in other countries and were promised by all parties here, the failure of any such referendum to occur in 2008-10 was the rocket boost UKIP needed. Had we been asked about Lisbon, we might have said, we might have said no but the boil would have been lanced. Instead, it festered on even as the Coalition took over.

    Ultimately, it was Cameron's fear of losing substantial votes to UKIP that prompted him to offer the referendum - perhaps he thought he wouldn't get a majority and could blame the LDs if he couldn't deliver but the commitment, backed by the fear of a Labour/SNP Government propelled the Conservatives to a narrow majority and Cameron was forced to deliver on his commitment - it would have been suicide if he hadn't, it turned out to be murder because he did.

    Labour's behaviour over the Lisbon Treaty was a disgrace, and as you say, paved the way for a much more radical rejection of the EU down the line.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,017
    Sean_F said:

    It's a foreign country. We have no moral obligation to act in their best interests, any more than they have a moral obligation to act in our best interests.

    In any case, the banking crisis, high unemployment, political corruption, the scandals in Mother and Baby homes weren't caused by us. Independence means owning up to one's own mistakes, not blaming them on outsiders.

    It does and I agree that the Irish were very unwise to believe that the Brits had changed.

  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,573

    Interesting article, as always from David. I think UKIP still has a nebulous but powerful appeal as the "outsiders" party, the people who say stuff that Westminster doesn't. It's a politician's mistake to see their support as mostly about Brexit - the polls have always been right that EU membership was a minority preoccupation, though everyone accepts that thre coming negotiations are important (if, they might add, boring to keep talking about),

    UKIP has been about immigration plus "we're for the ordinary bloke". They don't really have to do anything to maintain that, except make mildly outrageous commens onw and then (copyirght D. Trump) - enough to stay in the news, not enough to get generally seen as neo-Nazis. I think there's 10% audience for that, indefinitely.

    I think this right. There's a chance however that this type of 'ordinary bloke', anti-westminster, they are all in it together, vote, will be split with the Patriotic Alliance. This means even less chance under FPTP to gain anything beyond a few parish councils.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,527

    It does and I agree that the Irish were very unwise to believe that the Brits had changed.

    I don't understand what you think we've done recently that's so horrible to the Irish.
  • CornishBlueCornishBlue Posts: 840
    edited March 2017
    malcolmg said:

    No matter how you cut it or try to obfuscate, Scotland owns a share and a share of all the assets held within it. As part of all the other assets of the UK it has a value.
    Oh not this nonsense again.

    If the UK was being dissolved you may have an argument, but it would not be upon Scotland leaving - the UK would still exist and Scotland would be the only new state. Leaving a country absolutely does not mean that the leaving part is entitled to the country's assets.

    Of course if you do insist on going down the line of wanting 8% or whatever of UK assets then you must also take 8% of the liabilities. AGREED?
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,789
    edited March 2017
    Sean_F said:

    I don't understand what you think we've done recently that's so horrible to the Irish.
    he's a lying english bastard

    you cant trust anything he says :-)
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,235
    Has Brown actually come up with a good idea ?

    A FULLY federal United Kingdom might just be the solution.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,017
    Sean_F said:

    I don't understand what you think we've done recently that's so horrible to the Irish.

    Voting for Brexit dumps all over them. Irish leaders should have realised that the British would - not unreasonably - never factor the needs of Ireland (North or South) into their decision-making, and they should have planned accordingly. As I say, it's a lesson they have no doubt now learned.

  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    Sean_F said:

    I don't understand what you think we've done recently that's so horrible to the Irish.
    Lending them £7billion?
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,017

    Interesting article, as always from David. I think UKIP still has a nebulous but powerful appeal as the "outsiders" party, the people who say stuff that Westminster doesn't. It's a politician's mistake to see their support as mostly about Brexit - the polls have always been right that EU membership was a minority preoccupation, though everyone accepts that thre coming negotiations are important (if, they might add, boring to keep talking about),

    UKIP has been about immigration plus "we're for the ordinary bloke". They don't really have to do anything to maintain that, except make mildly outrageous commens onw and then (copyirght D. Trump) - enough to stay in the news, not enough to get generally seen as neo-Nazis. I think there's 10% audience for that, indefinitely.

    Turning that into real votes may prove to be tricky.

  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,789
    @ Southam

    oh the joyful inconsistency

    two days ago it was the english caused Brexit, now it's the british

  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,017

    he's a lying english bastard

    you cant trust anything he says :-)

    It's hard to reconcile the Good Friday Agreement, which the UK signed and which was approved by voters on both sides of the Border, with Brexit.

  • calumcalum Posts: 3,046
    Pulpstar said:

    Has Brown actually come up with a good idea ?

    A FULLY federal United Kingdom might just be the solution.

    At least 20 years if not a 100 to late !
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,017

    @ Southam

    oh the joyful inconsistency

    two days ago it was the english caused Brexit, now it's the british

    It's the British government.

  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,867

    I might be in a minority on the Right here who think Gordon Brown is onto something with his comments.

    But, I have been saying on here for some months that Holyrood should gain EU powers post Brexit, as has Michael Gove.

    Agreed.

    I always assumed that Brexit would mean bringing back many powers not just to Westminster but to the devolved parliaments and would essentially bring in a new constitutional settlement for the UK for the 21st century.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,789

    It's hard to reconcile the Good Friday Agreement, which the UK signed and which was approved by voters on both sides of the Border, with Brexit.

    not really

  • @ Southam

    oh the joyful inconsistency

    two days ago it was the english caused Brexit, now it's the british

    I now realise I should have voted to remain to keep the Irish happy.
  • glwglw Posts: 10,367
    Pulpstar said:

    Has Brown actually come up with a good idea ?

    A FULLY federal United Kingdom might just be the solution.

    Brown's good ideas have invariably turned out to be disastrous in the long term. Keep him well away from any negotiations.
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    edited March 2017
    RE: Bank of England's "assets". As I understand it they aren't really an asset in the conventional sense as they are entirely linked to the Quantitative Easing Programme. If they wanted they could double their assets tomorrow. Or they could remove them entirely. Just as the quantitative easing programme was an alternative to cutting interest rates, so they have the option of reversing the programme as an alternative to increasing them. They simply sell off the bonds they own and "destroy" the proceeds. In fact, theoretically, if an Independent Scotland were to claim a share of the "asset" then they could temporarily reverse the programme pre-independence, and re-activate it immediately afterwards...

    If Scotland believes this financial chicanery generates an asset then they could just create their own currency and central bank, and use it to create their own QE programme!
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,017

    I now realise I should have voted to remain to keep the Irish happy.

    Why on earth would you have done that?

This discussion has been closed.