politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Theresa Maybe? Definitely not
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Theresa Maybe? Definitely not
At the turn of the year Theresa May was besieged by many similar opinion pieces, several of them prompted by Sir Ivan Rogers’ resignation on 3rd January. Indecisiveness was the central charge, specifically over Brexit but also with regard to the operation of her Downing Street office and some rushed and/or reversed policy announcements. Her predecessor’s alleged nickname for her – “Submarine” – was used against her in articles that specifically did call for a running commentary.
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He snipes the first!0
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I thought she was supposed to be a toxic vote loser?
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Can't believe I published this.
Very good analysis Mr Price0 -
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Her leader rating advantage is Up in the Sky despite not being Marrried w Children
It would take a Supersonic effort to Bring it on Down
No wonder Corbynites and Cameroons are turning to Cigarettes and Alcohol
What a Digsy's Dinner of a post!0 -
Good article, Mr. Price, although there is the potential for enormous woe in the near future.
If our departure is either ok or actively good, *and* Corbyn stays, May could have an era-defining victory.
Mr. T, also 'pioneer'.0 -
She's not exactly an advertisement for the importance of being idle.isam said:Her leader rating advantage is Up in the Sky despite not being Marrried w Children
It would take a Supersonic effort to Bring it on Down
No wonder Corbynites and Cameroons are turning to Cigarettes and Alcohol
What a Digsy's Dinner of a post!0 -
She's Electric!AlastairMeeks said:
She's not exactly an advertisement for the importance of being idle.isam said:Her leader rating advantage is Up in the Sky despite not being Marrried w Children
It would take a Supersonic effort to Bring it on Down
No wonder Corbynites and Cameroons are turning to Cigarettes and Alcohol
What a Digsy's Dinner of a post!0 -
FPT
It's a risk, I agree. There is also, however, the possibility, that a unilateral gesture of this type would be received as an olive branch and responded to in kind, buying the UK government some badly needed goodwill at a time when there's precious little of the stuff going around.Richard_Nabavi said:
So, no doubt, are UK citizens living in EU27 countries. Unilaterally and unconditionally closing the issue will simply mean they are left till last. What possible incentive would our EU friends then have to expedite the matter?AlastairMeeks said:This is something that is causing a lot of heartache to EU27 residents in Britain, as I know from personal conversations. They're genuinely very concerned that they're going to be thrown out of the UK.
Since Britain is almost certainly going to concede on the point eventually (as, for that matter are the EU27), there's a lot to be said for seeing what we can get for it by trying the unexpected gambit of being nice.0 -
The original accusations of dithering were misplaced. Theresa May is not a ditherer, in the way that Gordon Brown famously was, but she likes to lay out her steps in advance and not take the decision until she has completed those steps. It's a systematic approach, rather than an indecisive one.
As it happens, it seems to have worked out well, so far at least, for the Article 50 business. However, it's an approach which is not without danger; in politics, as in war, your opponents don't stay still, and her patient, systematic approach could leave her dangerously outflanked or simply overtaken by events outside her control. Luckily, her UK opponents are in such complete disarray that this doesn't matter, but it might not always be so.0 -
Perhaps Sion Simon can start fundraising by writing articles for the New Statesman and other magazines/newspapersScott_P said:0 -
Mr. Meeks, how well did 'being nice' work for Blair?
Give 'em an inch and they'll take a foot. Before you know it, you don't have a leg to stand on.0 -
In diplomacy, as in life generally, you get no benefit for being a sucker, as we saw with Tony Blair's generous gesture of giving up part of our rebate for nothing in return.AlastairMeeks said:It's a risk, I agree. There is also, however, the possibility, that a unilateral gesture of this type would be received as an olive branch and responded to in kind, buying the UK government some badly needed goodwill at a time when there's precious little of the stuff going around.
Since Britain is almost certainly going to concede on the point eventually (as, for that matter are the EU27), there's a lot to be said for seeing what we can get for it by trying the unexpected gambit of being nice.
Quite apart from anything else, even with the best will in the world, the EU27 will find it hard to agree on anything. It would be mad to take away their incentive to agree as quickly as possible on rights for Brits in the EU.0 -
Agree with all that, except the second-last sentence. "She's about the best we could hope for, as we go into the Brexit negotiations." I think we'd be better served by a more emollient, glad-handing, cosmopolitan figure, fluent in French, German and Spanish, who could charm the leaders of the most important member states. The Commission is apparently beyond charming. But anyway, we have to go with what we have, and we'll see how it turns out. And I'm glad she overcame her obvious distaste of Trump while she was over there.SeanT said:Its still early doors, but she's gone up in my estimation, quite a lot.
I thought her speech to the Republicans in Philadelphia was impressive, and showed cogency and insight.
She's clearly quite tough, clearly pretty smart, she takes her time but is a shrewd operator. She's about the best we could hope for, as we go into the Brexit negotiations. A serious politician for serious times.
And yes, she is certainly a serious politician, whatever else one thinks of her. (But then, I've just remembered, so was Gordon Brown ...)0 -
TMay was an unknown quantity as far as I was concerned and I reserved judgement on her until after her first year. However, 6 months in and she’s already proved to be dynamic, forthright and an electoral winner. If after another 6 months she’s signed A50 and negotiations are well underway, I wouldn’t mind too much buying her a beer.0
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There's no comparison between this and the rebate situation.Richard_Nabavi said:
In diplomacy, as in life, you get no benefit for being a sucker, as we saw with Tony Blair's generous gesture of giving up part of our rebate for nothing in return.AlastairMeeks said:It's a risk, I agree. There is also, however, the possibility, that a unilateral gesture of this type would be received as an olive branch and responded to in kind, buying the UK government some badly needed goodwill at a time when there's precious little of the stuff going around.
Since Britain is almost certainly going to concede on the point eventually (as, for that matter are the EU27), there's a lot to be said for seeing what we can get for it by trying the unexpected gambit of being nice.
The issue for negotiation is what the terms of movement of labour will be in the future. To make a unilateral guarantee for people currently resident in the UK is to concede nothing. The only real argument against it is that it would just be gratuitous virtue signalling.0 -
I think some people rather desperately oversold Theresa early on - within days firm talk of how she's proven she's not for x or y or whatever - but it was quite clear she was the best option available. I do still think she has played things close enough to the chest we cannot fully judge things just yet, and I think there's reason to worry, but not too much yet.0
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Oh, and a good article by the way TP. And well done for calling the Blessed Margaret Mrs Thatcher rather than just Thatcher.0
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What an excellent article.0
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Britain would be giving up almost nothing and putting at risk almost nothing. If the EU27 is determined to be unpleasant to British citizens (which I greatly doubt), Britain holding the same card in relation to EU27 citizens is unlikely to deter them.Richard_Nabavi said:
In diplomacy, as in life, you get no benefit for being a sucker, as we saw with Tony Blair's generous gesture of giving up part of our rebate for nothing in return.AlastairMeeks said:It's a risk, I agree. There is also, however, the possibility, that a unilateral gesture of this type would be received as an olive branch and responded to in kind, buying the UK government some badly needed goodwill at a time when there's precious little of the stuff going around.
Since Britain is almost certainly going to concede on the point eventually (as, for that matter are the EU27), there's a lot to be said for seeing what we can get for it by trying the unexpected gambit of being nice.
Britain can approach this negotiation as a transactional negotiation or it can view it as a relational negotiation. So far it is showing every sign of doing the former at a time when the EU27 is still very much in relational mode. This looks doomed to disaster, especially as Britain is going to be part of the continent of Europe for the foreseeable future (at least, until the more zealous Europhobes have worked out how to detach Britain from the Eurasian tectonic plate), making a relational arrangement inevitable.0 -
She should be known as TM the PM, and her slogan should be "Timshel"0
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Of course a unilateral guarantee would be a concession, and a very foolish one. It would concede the very important principle that we want the same rights for UK citizens in the EU as EU citizens have here.williamglenn said:The issue for negotiation is what the terms of movement of labour will be in the future. To make a unilateral guarantee for people currently resident in the UK is to concede nothing. The only real argument against it is that it would just be gratuitous virtue signalling.
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Certainly that's true in neogtiations with the EU, especialy the French and Germans. I've sometimes had different experiences negotating with Americans, with whom basic manners occasionally dictate concessions once you've made one. Although of course one should never rely on it.Richard_Nabavi said:In diplomacy, as in life generally, you get no benefit for being a sucker, as we saw with Tony Blair's generous gesture of giving up part of our rebate for nothing in return.
(Most of my experience in neogitations with EU countries has been governmental, while most of my experience in negotations with Americans has been in the private sector, so maybe that could explain the difference).0 -
Latest YouGov poll - Con position versus Lab:
Scotland +6
London +7
North +7
Midlands/Wales +19
Rest of South +30
18-24 -10
25-49 -1
50-64 +21
65 and over +50
Remain -5
Leave +39
Male +21
Female +13
ABC1 +22
C2DE +10
As indicated by some previous surveys, Labour's vote is holding up better amongst women than men, and women are also a little more sceptical about Theresa May (though no less sceptical than men about Jeremy Corbyn.) Amongst male voters, Labour's support is half that of the Tories and only 7pts clear of Ukip.
The 2015 voter churn figures also indicate that May is carrying over the large bulk of support the party enjoyed under Cameron, and continuing to hold about one-fifth of the 2015 Ukip vote, as well as respectable shares of ex-Labour and Lib Dem backers. Lib Dem support is softest, but they are doing better than in 2015 apparently thanks to attracting around three times as many voters from Labour as have travelled the other way since the last election.0 -
Mr. Nabavi, agree entirely. A reciprocal arrangement is just and fair, giving rights unilaterally to EU citizens without any guarantee of them being in place for Britons is to discard the interest of the British citizen in favour of the EU citizen. It's the antithesis of what a government ought to do.0
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There are two fundamental ways to go into negotiations: hard and soft. Sometimes hard is the best way, and sometimes soft is. I think the EU feels a bit like a spurner lover right now and that being nice will get us more than playing hardball. But it is a very difficult question.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Meeks, how well did 'being nice' work for Blair?
Give 'em an inch and they'll take a foot. Before you know it, you don't have a leg to stand on.0 -
It's not a question of deterring them, it's about agreeing the terms of reciprocity. For example, would our 'unconditional guarantee' extend to free heatlhcare, education and welfare, under all circumstances? Even if our EU friends booted you out of Hungary completely, or (more plausibly) tried to charge exorbitant sums for healthcare of UK residents post-Brexit?AlastairMeeks said:Britain would be giving up almost nothing and putting at risk almost nothing. If the EU27 is determined to be unpleasant to British citizens (which I greatly doubt), Britain holding the same card in relation to EU27 citizens is unlikely to deter them..
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On the subject of puerile internet insults, it is not so long ago that Toryherd was commonplace on here.0
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I suppose one difference between the rebate/CAP issue and this one is that in the former there was zero chance of the CAP being reformed whereas it is highly likely that the EU27 will want to reciprocate. So giving up the rebate without something written in blood in return was foolish.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Meeks, how well did 'being nice' work for Blair?
Give 'em an inch and they'll take a foot. Before you know it, you don't have a leg to stand on.
It is very hard to know whether such a gesture - which feels instinctively generous and British and somehow right - would buy us goodwill and therefore be worth doing or whether it would simply be taken with nothing given in return. A British government which left its citizens abroad in limbo would be rightly criticised - especially if their interests were being or perceived as being put second - and those expats will also have families here who will worry about what might happen.
Perhaps this might be one of those occasions when the government could use those with good links in the EU to sound out informally and discreetly on a deniable basis how such an offer would be received?
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I find myself in the unusual position of agreeing with Andrea Leadsom:
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jul/04/andrea-leadsom-guarantee-rights-eu-citizens-uk-brexit-tory-leadership-theresa-may0 -
May's support is a mile wide and an inch deep. However, whileever Labour have a delusional, arrogant clot as a leader the sky is indeed the limit.0
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@PolhomeEditor: BREAKING Government defeated as House of Lords votes 358 to 256 calling on ministers to let EU citizens stay in the UK post-Brexit.0
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Not really that much of surprise is it? The key question is how many will persist when the Commons sends it back.Scott_P said:@PolhomeEditor: BREAKING Government defeated as House of Lords votes 358 to 256 calling on ministers to let EU citizens stay in the UK post-Brexit.
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Precisely, it's the EU27 who are holding their own citizens to ransom. Our noble lords are directing their high moral crusade at the wrong target.SeanT said:Er, TMay tried that already, with Merkel and Co, and she was told to sling her hook. They said: no deal of any kind until A50 is triggered and negotiations begin.
We should take them at their word.0 -
In your zeal for using human beings as mere bargaining chips, you forget that it is a) the right thing to do b) is the best outcome for the economy and c) is the least disruptive and divisive. I would say 30% of my son's schoolmates are affected - quite possibly a large proportion of your daughter's friends are too, given where you and she live.SeanT said:
Absolutely right. This idea that insane acts of generosity will inspire equal kindness from flinty selfish EU politicians with their own demanding voters, is just nuts.Richard_Nabavi said:
Of course a unilateral guarantee would be a concession, and a very foolish one. It would concede the very important principle that we want the same rights for UK citizens in the EU as EU citizens have here.williamglenn said:The issue for negotiation is what the terms of movement of labour will be in the future. To make a unilateral guarantee for people currently resident in the UK is to concede nothing. The only real argument against it is that it would just be gratuitous virtue signalling.
It's almost as bad as Cameron's announcing, prior to his big EU negotiation, that he would "never campaign to Leave the EU".
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It's a daft amendment - "legally resident"... what does that mean? No mention of Swiss citizens (they are not EEA). The cut-off date appears to be the day Royal assent is given.Scott_P said:@PolhomeEditor: BREAKING Government defeated as House of Lords votes 358 to 256 calling on ministers to let EU citizens stay in the UK post-Brexit.
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Wrong about continents, "continent" and "island" are antithetical in this context. And there is no disguising the fact that sauce for the goose is precisely equivalent to sauce for the gander. We are witnessing a gaggle of elderly bewildered gentlefolk falling for a slightly modified version of the oldest con trick of all: give us your wallet to show you trust us, and we'll give you ours, but you get to give us yours first because reasons.AlastairMeeks said:
Britain would be giving up almost nothing and putting at risk almost nothing. If the EU27 is determined to be unpleasant to British citizens (which I greatly doubt), Britain holding the same card in relation to EU27 citizens is unlikely to deter them.Richard_Nabavi said:
In diplomacy, as in life, you get no benefit for being a sucker, as we saw with Tony Blair's generous gesture of giving up part of our rebate for nothing in return.AlastairMeeks said:It's a risk, I agree. There is also, however, the possibility, that a unilateral gesture of this type would be received as an olive branch and responded to in kind, buying the UK government some badly needed goodwill at a time when there's precious little of the stuff going around.
Since Britain is almost certainly going to concede on the point eventually (as, for that matter are the EU27), there's a lot to be said for seeing what we can get for it by trying the unexpected gambit of being nice.
Britain can approach this negotiation as a transactional negotiation or it can view it as a relational negotiation. So far it is showing every sign of doing the former at a time when the EU27 is still very much in relational mode. This looks doomed to disaster, especially as Britain is going to be part of the continent of Europe for the foreseeable future (at least, until the more zealous Europhobes have worked out how to detach Britain from the Eurasian tectonic plate), making a relational arrangement inevitable.0 -
Yes, because to agree to this would be to accept the premise that free movement of labour will not continue as it operates now, and that is a matter for negotiation.SeanT said:
Er, TMay tried that already, with Merkel and Co, and she was told to sling her hook. They said: no deal of any kind until A50 is triggered and negotiations begin.Cyclefree said:
I suppose one difference between the rebate/CAP issue and this one is that in the former there was zero chance of the CAP being reformed whereas it is highly likely that the EU27 will want to reciprocate. Sobgiving upnthe rebate without domething written in blood in return was foolosh.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Meeks, how well did 'being nice' work for Blair?
Give 'em an inch and they'll take a foot. Before you know it, you don't have a leg to stand on.
It is very hard to know whether such a gesture - which feels instinctively generous and British and somehow right - would buy us goodwill and therefore be worth doing or whether it would simply be taken with nothing given in return. A British government which left its citizens abroad in limbo would be rightly criticised - especially if their interests were being or perceived as being put second - and those expats will also have families here who will worry about what might happen.
Perhaps this might be one of those occasions when the government could use those with good links in the EU to sound out informally and discreetly on a deniable basis how such an offer would be received?
We should take them at their word.0 -
Let the wiff-waff commence0
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Huge turnout in the Lords0
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That was in the immediate aftermath and was done publicly. Worth doing behind the scenes now that the dust has settled. If it fails, what's lost?SeanT said:
Er, TMay tried that already, with Merkel and Co, and she was told to sling her hook. They said: no deal of any kind until A50 is triggered and negotiations begin.Cyclefree said:
I suppose one difference between the rebate/CAP issue and this one is that in the former there was zero chance of the CAP being reformed whereas it is highly likely that the EU27 will want to reciprocate. Sobgiving upnthe rebate without domething written in blood in return was foolosh.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Meeks, how well did 'being nice' work for Blair?
Give 'em an inch and they'll take a foot. Before you know it, you don't have a leg to stand on.
It is very hard to know whether such a gesture - which feels instinctively generous and British and somehow right - would buy us goodwill and therefore be worth doing or whether it would simply be taken with nothing given in return. A British government which left its citizens abroad in limbo would be rightly criticised - especially if their interests were being or perceived as being put second - and those expats will also have families here who will worry about what might happen.
Perhaps this might be one of those occasions when the government could use those with good links in the EU to sound out informally and discreetly on a deniable basis how such an offer would be received?
We should take them at their word.
And the government could say that it would guarantee the right to stay ie no deportations but that the terms on which people can stay (ie access to benefits / public services etc) are not guaranteed and will be dependant on reciprocity for British citizens. That provides one incentive.
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The most that the government should do now is to remind EU citizens that they can apply for UK citizenship once they have served a five year residence period in the UK.
Most long term EU residents can eliminate any uncertainty themselves just by following this path.0 -
When we waived the transition period for the A8 countries it wasn't out of generosity but out of self-interest. We thought we were getting one over on the stuffy French and Germans, with their irrational fear of the Polish plumber, and truth be told, we were.SeanT said:
Absolutely right. This idea that insane acts of generosity will inspire equal kindness from flinty selfish EU politicians with their own demanding voters, is just nuts.Richard_Nabavi said:
Of course a unilateral guarantee would be a concession, and a very foolish one. It would concede the very important principle that we want the same rights for UK citizens in the EU as EU citizens have here.williamglenn said:The issue for negotiation is what the terms of movement of labour will be in the future. To make a unilateral guarantee for people currently resident in the UK is to concede nothing. The only real argument against it is that it would just be gratuitous virtue signalling.
From a Brexiteer perspective, the fact that this act of economic selfishness also contributed to building the Brexit vote coalition is just the deliciously ironic icing on the cake, but it's no reason to abandon the competitive advantage we've gained in the intervening period.0 -
On the politics of this vote, I'm not at all convinced that Labour and the LibDems favouring the rights of foreigners over British citizens will be seen as fair by voters. Fairness is all about reciprocity - this is a political mistake (and a really odd issue to choose to oppose the government on), as well as being a negotiating blunder if allowed to stand.0
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The amendment will get struck down by the commons won't it. When it passes back to the Lords can they reamend it or is it on a take it or leave it basis at that point ?Richard_Nabavi said:On the politics of this vote, I'm not at all convinced that Labour and the LibDems favouring the rights of foreigners over British citizens will be seen as fair by voters. Fairness is all about reciprocity - this is a political mistake (and a really odd issue to choose to oppose the government on), as well as being a negotiating blunder if allowed to stand.
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Yes, Tory MPs are on standby to pong any pings straight back, and the Lords will probably back down then, having signalled their superior virtue.Pulpstar said:The amendment will get struck down by the commons won't it. When it passes back to the Lords can they reamend it or is it on a take it or leave it basis at that point ?
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“a bloody difficult woman”
Ken Clarke0 -
Mr. Nabavi, agree entirely (again). The electorate will see the unelected standing up for foreigners over their own people.
A reciprocal deal would be an excellent thing, and was offered by May, and declined by the EU.
However, this vote may actually help May, as it gives her a prime opportunity to stand with the electorate against those whose valens must be signified.0 -
On topic, as others have said, an excellent piece. At the moment Theresa May is lacking alternatives inside or outside her party. It seems that she is a slow thinker but she is evidently a thinker.
What are her weaknesses? She's slow to make her mind up and her government has been caught flatfooted more than once already when speed was required. She has given flashes of a charmless intolerance of different approaches to life - "citizens of nowhere" and baiting Emily Thornberry about not taking her husband's name were entirely avoidable. It's far from clear that her plans for Brexit will survive first contact with reality. And time is not a quantity that she has in abundance, particularly in relation to Brexit where she is about to start negotiations with a group that are out to do her few favours and where she has made no serious attempt to gain any goodwill at all.
But until Britain has a functioning opposition other than the SNP, she will govern unchallenged.0 -
This vote by the Lords is a huge mistake. The court of public opinion will consider the amendment grossly unfair on British citizens living in the EU. The Lords will be seen to be totally out of touch with the public on this issue.0
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I'm relaxed about this, but an argument could surely be made that doing the right thing here might have knock on effects for the economy and people of this country that would be more disruptive and divisive, as by unilaterally doing this it could undermine our ability to negotiateBojabob said:
In your zeal for using human beings as mere bargaining chips, you forget that it is a) the right thing to do b) is the best outcome for the economy and c) is the least disruptive and divisive.SeanT said:
Absolutely right. This idea that insane acts of generosity will inspire equal kindness from flinty selfish EU politicians with their own demanding voters, is just nuts.Richard_Nabavi said:
Of course a unilateral guarantee would be a concession, and a very foolish one. It would concede the very important principle that we want the same rights for UK citizens in the EU as EU citizens have here.williamglenn said:The issue for negotiation is what the terms of movement of labour will be in the future. To make a unilateral guarantee for people currently resident in the UK is to concede nothing. The only real argument against it is that it would just be gratuitous virtue signalling.
It's almost as bad as Cameron's announcing, prior to his big EU negotiation, that he would "never campaign to Leave the EU".
That might not be likely, and as I said I'm relaxed about doing this - it is certainly the case that even before the vote I knew EU citizens, who have no wish to go anywhere, who were worried about the potential consequences, and it would be nice to alleviate that worry - but governance for the overall benefit of a nation of millions must occasionally involve cold, calculating action. Whether that is reasonable here, I do not know, but I think it would be unfair to paint anyone taking a more abstract and pragmatic viewpoint as being entirely heartless, even acknowledging that some will indeed be that heartless.
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If we still had the 48 000 immigrants a year we had under Major rather than the almost 300 000 immigrants we now have I doubt we would have voted for Brexitwilliamglenn said:
When we waived the transition period for the A8 countries it wasn't out of generosity but out of self-interest. We thought we were getting one over on the stuffy French and Germans, with their irrational fear of the Polish plumber, and truth be told, we were.SeanT said:
Absolutely right. This idea that insane acts of generosity will inspire equal kindness from flinty selfish EU politicians with their own demanding voters, is just nuts.Richard_Nabavi said:
Of course a unilateral guarantee would be a concession, and a very foolish one. It would concede the very important principle that we want the same rights for UK citizens in the EU as EU citizens have here.williamglenn said:The issue for negotiation is what the terms of movement of labour will be in the future. To make a unilateral guarantee for people currently resident in the UK is to concede nothing. The only real argument against it is that it would just be gratuitous virtue signalling.
From a Brexiteer perspective, the fact that this act of economic selfishness also contributed to building the Brexit vote coalition is just the deliciously ironic icing on the cake, but it's no reason to abandon the competitive advantage we've gained in the intervening period.0 -
Absolutely. I said last night that people's feelings on this matter seem to largely come down to sticking up for their friends and family. Some people know many more EU immigrants, some know many more ex-pats. But the former are vastly better represented in politics and the media.Richard_Nabavi said:On the politics of this vote, I'm not at all convinced that Labour and the LibDems favouring the rights of foreigners over British citizens will be seen as fair by voters. Fairness is all about reciprocity - this is a political mistake (and a really odd issue to choose to oppose the government on), as well as being a negotiating blunder if allowed to stand.
Thanks to all for the kind comments below; I was half the world away when OGH published it.0 -
The most economically hostile act the EU could make against Russia would not be sanctions, but offering unilateral free movement of labour.SeanT said:But we do have some extra leverage here as 3m of them live here and only 1m of us live there, yet you want to give this leverage away, just so you can feel good and be nice, and fuck the Brits in Europe who might then find they DON'T get reciprocal rights, because Britain gave away her bargaining advantage on a virtue signalling whim.
We've been winning the demographic war for talent within the EU, and seeking to maintain that advantage is not a concession but consolidation of the spoils of victory.0 -
I am sure it will, but it is not the Lords job to be in touch with the public is it? It's to scrutinise legislation and make suggested changes to improve it. This may not be regarded as an improvement, but currently they are doing their job. If they continue to obstruct the democratic chamber should that chamber reject the Lords' proffered opinion, then that is another issue, still not really about being out of touch with the public, but about how much they should reasonably persist on the point.steve_garner said:This vote by the Lords is a huge mistake. The court of public opinion will consider the amendment grossly unfair on British citizens living in the EU. The Lords will be seen to be totally out of touch with the public on this issue.
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It's all part of her Masterplan.isam said:
She's Electric!AlastairMeeks said:
She's not exactly an advertisement for the importance of being idle.isam said:Her leader rating advantage is Up in the Sky despite not being Marrried w Children
It would take a Supersonic effort to Bring it on Down
No wonder Corbynites and Cameroons are turning to Cigarettes and Alcohol
What a Digsy's Dinner of a post!0 -
Interesting article, many thanks. I certainly feel more at ease with Mrs May than I did with Mr Cameron, but that's just gut-reaction.
Given the circumstances, it was (IMHO) just as well there wasn't a full leadership campaign. It would inevitably have resulted in Brexit hostages to fortune.
It also seems to me that the fears of our EU residents probably say more about their knowledge both of their own national governments and of the EU's ways than about the UK's position. In which case, of course, the UK government is even more wise to wait upon the outcome of negotiations.
Good evening, everyone.0 -
Things are still volatile. If there is a feature of politics these days it's that you fly high, then fall hard. Sometimes overnight.
Who remembers the 2010 Cleggasm, Cameron triumphant after the 2015 election or "the near perfect chancellor" a dead cert for the premiership in 2020?
May could be here for a while. She could be gone by Christmas.
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Good evening, Miss JGP.0
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I'll add that as someone living in a jurisdiction goverened by EU rules it's quite disheartening to see the stupidity on display by the Lords who are putting the rights of non citizens above the rights of citizens. It would mean a bit more paperwork for a visa if an agreement were unable to be made with the EU British citizens' rights within the EU/Single Market. Not the end of the world, but still irritating. I'm lucky enough that I'd qualify for a visa fairly easily, there are plenty who wouldn't on both sides and guaranteeing only one side's unskilled workers/retirees seems a bit mad to me.Richard_Nabavi said:On the politics of this vote, I'm not at all convinced that Labour and the LibDems favouring the rights of foreigners over British citizens will be seen as fair by voters. Fairness is all about reciprocity - this is a political mistake (and a really odd issue to choose to oppose the government on), as well as being a negotiating blunder if allowed to stand.
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Never put it past Tories to cut off their noses to spite their faces. EU immigrants are a benefit to this country so what on earth are we trying to do by threatening them with expulsion other that making them feel unwanted and uncomfortable.Bojabob said:
In your zeal for using human beings as mere bargaining chips, you forget that it is a) the right thing to do b) is the best outcome for the economy and c) is the least disruptive and divisive. I would say 30% of my son's schoolmates are affected - quite possibly a large proportion of your daughter's friends are too, given where you and she live.SeanT said:
Absolutely right. This idea that insane acts of generosity will inspire equal kindness from flinty selfish EU politicians with their own demanding voters, is just nuts.Richard_Nabavi said:
Of course a unilateral guarantee would be a concession, and a very foolish one. It would concede the very important principle that we want the same rights for UK citizens in the EU as EU citizens have here.williamglenn said:The issue for negotiation is what the terms of movement of labour will be in the future. To make a unilateral guarantee for people currently resident in the UK is to concede nothing. The only real argument against it is that it would just be gratuitous virtue signalling.
It's almost as bad as Cameron's announcing, prior to his big EU negotiation, that he would "never campaign to Leave the EU".
....and that ignores the morality. It's interesting to hear Tebbit leaving his crypt to remind those who have forgotten or weren't born what Tories look like when you strip off the new paint.0 -
"Citizens of nowhere" was apparently fully intended. Though that may be after-the-event spin:AlastairMeeks said:On topic, as others have said, an excellent piece. At the moment Theresa May is lacking alternatives inside or outside her party. It seems that she is a slow thinker but she is evidently a thinker.
What are her weaknesses? She's slow to make her mind up and her government has been caught flatfooted more than once already when speed was required. She has given flashes of a charmless intolerance of different approaches to life - "citizens of nowhere" and baiting Emily Thornberry about not taking her husband's name were entirely avoidable. It's far from clear that her plans for Brexit will survive first contact with reality. And time is not a quantity that she has in abundance, particularly in relation to Brexit where she is about to start negotiations with a group that are out to do her few favours and where she has made no serious attempt to gain any goodwill at all.
But until Britain has a functioning opposition other than the SNP, she will govern unchallenged.
This line was a calculated, and brutal, rebuke to Davos man. It caused great offence in certain quarters; one grand media panjandrum went to see May to complain about it to her face. But May’s real aim was to show the voters that she loathed cheating bankers, Philip Green and other private jet users just as much as they do. From this position, the calculation went, voters would trust her to try to make globalisation and markets work for them rather than throwing the baby out with the bathwater and opting for full-blown populism and protectionism.
http://www.spectator.co.uk/2017/02/theresa-mays-new-third-way/0 -
The Tories owe May a huge debt of thanks. A moderniser before there were modernisers and the only sensible option in 2016.
But I sense there is something slippery about her and that 'maybe' she is not quite as clever as she thinks she is and that - coupled with her obvious lack of warmth - ultimately might be her undoing.0 -
The tricky issues with retained residency rights are to do with things like dependents, accumulated welfare rights and so on. Lord Kerr is right - these won't be agreed until everything is agreed. However, residency and citizenship are national competencies in the EU. Applications have sky rocketed since the Brexit vote. It's a very bureaucratic process, the rejection rate is very high and the UKBA is struggling to cope with the numbers. The government could, if it thought it was a good thing to do, or the right thing to do,accelerate the process and make it easier and maybe relax some of the criteria on things like periods of absence.They could do that now.0
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Of course this site has been overwhelmed with thread headers in support of Mrs May, so thank you for finding space for one more.TheScreamingEagles said:Can't believe I published this.
Very good analysis Mr Price0 -
Thank you, Mr Dancer.Morris_Dancer said:Good evening, Miss JGP.
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Off topic - Can anyone see Fillon not making it onto the ballot in France?
The date of his appearance before the French courts is two days before the deadline for nominations. The French people who I've spoken to (and who are not particularly political) seem convinced of his 'guilt' already and apparently the French media are having a field day at his expense.
If he doesn't make it onto the ballot (or pulls out after the deadline for nominations) it could make a mess of betting calculations. I'm tempted to put a small amount on Macron getting the job in the first round, although there might still be some value on a different Republican candidate being substituted at the last minute.0 -
Zero chance of Macron getting it in the first round, he needs over 50%. The biggest winner from Fillon not ending up on the ballot would be Le Pen who would have the nationalist right all to herself, especially if LR replace him with Juppe at the last minuteTudorRose said:Off topic - Can anyone see Fillon not making it onto the ballot in France?
The date of his appearance before the French courts is two days before the deadline for nominations. The French people who I've spoken to (and who are not particularly political) seem convinced of his 'guilt' already and apparently the French media are having a field day at his expense.
If he doesn't make it onto the ballot (or pulls out after the deadline for nominations) it could make a mess of betting calculations. I'm tempted to put a small amount on Macron getting the job in the first round, although there might still be some value on a different Republican candidate being substituted at the last minute.0 -
I'm delighted and relieved that the Remainers in the Lords have made their first stand on this issue. It should cement the foundations (? metaphor) of public opinion in favour of brexit nicely.0
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There will likely be no general election for 3 years, May is not going to call another referendum and she already has the premiershipJonathan said:Things are still volatile. If there is a feature of politics these days it's that you fly high, then fall hard. Sometimes overnight.
Who remembers the 2010 Cleggasm, Cameron triumphant after the 2015 election or "the near perfect chancellor" a dead cert for the premiership in 2020?
May could be here for a while. She could be gone by Christmas.0 -
Massive value spotted on Twitter:
https://twitter.com/newdawn1997/status/8369095028133314560 -
He has already officially filed the requisite number of nominations (the only candidate who has, so far). So he'll certainly be on the ballot unless he personally decides to withdraw. That's certainly a possibility - there seem to be quite a few of his colleagues who are urging him to do so.TudorRose said:Off topic - Can anyone see Fillon not making it onto the ballot in France?
The date of his appearance before the French courts is two days before the deadline for nominations. The French people who I've spoken to (and who are not particularly political) seem convinced of his 'guilt' already and apparently the French media are having a field day at his expense.
If he doesn't make it onto the ballot (or pulls out after the deadline for nominations) it could make a mess of betting calculations. I'm tempted to put a small amount on Macron getting the job in the first round, although there might still be some value on a different Republican candidate being substituted at the last minute.
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Mr. (Miss? Sorry) Rose, he should withdraw, but he's also been a bit of Le Corbyn in his refusal to do so.
I hope Fillon toddles off. Added a shade of greenery for both Juppe and Bairon, so if either of them gets the nod I can lay nicely.
Miss JGP, you're welcome.
Edited extra bit: Mr. Nabavi, cheers for that Fillon information.0 -
And they care far more about the cultured Europeans they share their offices with that the tattooed Chaz and Dave living out in Benidorm.Tissue_Price said:
Absolutely. I said last night that people's feelings on this matter seem to largely come down to sticking up for their friends and family. Some people know many more EU immigrants, some know many more ex-pats. But the former are vastly better represented in politics and the media.Richard_Nabavi said:On the politics of this vote, I'm not at all convinced that Labour and the LibDems favouring the rights of foreigners over British citizens will be seen as fair by voters. Fairness is all about reciprocity - this is a political mistake (and a really odd issue to choose to oppose the government on), as well as being a negotiating blunder if allowed to stand.
Thanks to all for the kind comments below; I was half the world away when OGH published it.0 -
I can't wait for somebody to poll the public's reaction to this.0
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@Tissue_Price thanks for the article. Interesting points re Labour's weaknesses. Would have been surprising if Leadsom got anywhere near the support enjoyed by present PM. The Tories must be breathing a sign of relief that she self destructed.0
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I think you are being naive unfortunately.AlastairMeeks said:FPT
It's a risk, I agree. There is also, however, the possibility, that a unilateral gesture of this type would be received as an olive branch and responded to in kind, buying the UK government some badly needed goodwill at a time when there's precious little of the stuff going around.Richard_Nabavi said:
So, no doubt, are UK citizens living in EU27 countries. Unilaterally and unconditionally closing the issue will simply mean they are left till last. What possible incentive would our EU friends then have to expedite the matter?AlastairMeeks said:This is something that is causing a lot of heartache to EU27 residents in Britain, as I know from personal conversations. They're genuinely very concerned that they're going to be thrown out of the UK.
Since Britain is almost certainly going to concede on the point eventually (as, for that matter are the EU27), there's a lot to be said for seeing what we can get for it by trying the unexpected gambit of being nice.
Perhaps if there was no history on this point your strategy would work.
But we've already gone to them and said "This is unreasonable. Let's just agree this minor point and take it off the table" and we're slapped down (even though that is the likely outcome).
If we go back now and say "ok we'll give you the point anyway" it will just be taken as weakness, not niceness.
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Lay UkipTissue_Price said:Massive value spotted on Twitter:
https://twitter.com/newdawn1997/status/836909502813331456
Good thread header, nice to be able to read one without feeling I was being trolled! The puns worked too, a rare double0 -
Wise words.Jonathan said:Things are still volatile. If there is a feature of politics these days it's that you fly high, then fall hard. Sometimes overnight.
Who remembers the 2010 Cleggasm, Cameron triumphant after the 2015 election or "the near perfect chancellor" a dead cert for the premiership in 2020?
May could be here for a while. She could be gone by Christmas.0 -
Anyway, I must be off. Boo hiss to Fillon, the faffing Frenchman.0
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It's not a minor point but a major point because to agree it is to agree that free movement of labour will not apply in the future. That is something that cannot be detached from negotiations about the nature of our access to the single market.Charles said:But we've already gone to them and said "This is unreasonable. Let's just agree this minor point and take it off the table" and we're slapped down (even though that is the likely outcome).
May's attempted slight of hand was rightly slapped down by Merkel, although other EU leaders may have been naive enough to fall for it.0 -
And Lords abolition. And calls for an early GE.frpenkridge said:I'm delighted and relieved that the Remainers in the Lords have made their first stand on this issue. It should cement the foundations (? metaphor) of public opinion in favour of brexit nicely.
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What do these Brits that go to fight for ISIS have in common?
https://twitter.com/standardnews/status/8370180483264020480 -
It does again seem that some are only capable of characterising europeans in virtuous terms and as a uniform group .
The three million individuals are a pretty disparate bunch.
Find them in five bed houses in Ally Pally and they are earning large salaries and fully self sustaining. Trot along to nearby Edmonton or Wood Green and it will not be long before you encounter the part time worker who is receiving copious amounts of housing benefit, tax credits and child benefit in return for 16 hours a week serving coffee or driving an Uber.
Across the board guarantees are not the way forward.0 -
Huddersfield play weakened team at the Etihad! #signothetimes0
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And what about the possibility of expulsion of British citizens (you know, our own citizens) from the rump EU? Do you and your kind care about that?Roger said:
Never put it past Tories to cut off their noses to spite their faces. EU immigrants are a benefit to this country so what on earth are we trying to do by threatening them with expulsion other that making them feel unwanted and uncomfortable.Bojabob said:
In your zeal for using human beings as mere bargaining chips, you forget that it is a) the right thing to do b) is the best outcome for the economy and c) is the least disruptive and divisive. I would say 30% of my son's schoolmates are affected - quite possibly a large proportion of your daughter's friends are too, given where you and she live.SeanT said:
Absolutely right. This idea that insane acts of generosity will inspire equal kindness from flinty selfish EU politicians with their own demanding voters, is just nuts.Richard_Nabavi said:
Of course a unilateral guarantee would be a concession, and a very foolish one. It would concede the very important principle that we want the same rights for UK citizens in the EU as EU citizens have here.williamglenn said:The issue for negotiation is what the terms of movement of labour will be in the future. To make a unilateral guarantee for people currently resident in the UK is to concede nothing. The only real argument against it is that it would just be gratuitous virtue signalling.
It's almost as bad as Cameron's announcing, prior to his big EU negotiation, that he would "never campaign to Leave the EU".
....and that ignores the morality. It's interesting to hear Tebbit leaving his crypt to remind those who have forgotten or weren't born what Tories look like when you strip off the new paint.0 -
Very true hard to see her becoming a Leicester City winning the premiership then the year after fighting off relegation.HYUFD said:
There will likely be no general election for 3 years, May is not going to call another referendum and she already has the premiershipJonathan said:Things are still volatile. If there is a feature of politics these days it's that you fly high, then fall hard. Sometimes overnight.
Who remembers the 2010 Cleggasm, Cameron triumphant after the 2015 election or "the near perfect chancellor" a dead cert for the premiership in 2020?
May could be here for a while. She could be gone by Christmas.0 -
Certainly any Brexiteers expecting any difference at all between Merkel and Schulz in their approach to Brexit will be disappointedwilliamglenn said:
It's not a minor point but a major point because to agree it is to agree that free movement of labour will not apply in the future. That is something that cannot be detached from negotiations about the nature of our access to the single market.Charles said:But we've already gone to them and said "This is unreasonable. Let's just agree this minor point and take it off the table" and we're slapped down (even though that is the likely outcome).
May's attempted slight of hand was rightly slapped down by Merkel, although other EU leaders may have been naive enough to fall for it.0 -
i can't speak for the public but I can give you mine. I was ambivalent about the Lords before, assuming they were harmless old fogies, but now ...
Abolish the lot of 'em and shoot one in ten as a lesson.
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Just to clarify - are you saying that by the Lords amendment the Lords have conceded that free movement of labour is off the table and membership of the single market - and if so have they shot themselves in the foot - genuine question and looking forward to your answerwilliamglenn said:
It's not a minor point but a major point because to agree it is to agree that free movement of labour will not apply in the future. That is something that cannot be detached from negotiations about the nature of our access to the single market.Charles said:But we've already gone to them and said "This is unreasonable. Let's just agree this minor point and take it off the table" and we're slapped down (even though that is the likely outcome).
May's attempted slight of hand was rightly slapped down by Merkel, although other EU leaders may have been naive enough to fall for it.0 -
Thanks for that. Lots of Gallic shrugging all round I think!Richard_Nabavi said:
He has already officially filed the requisite number of nominations (the only candidate who has, so far). So he'll certainly be on the ballot unless he personally decides to withdraw. That's certainly a possibility - there seem to be quite a few of his colleagues who are urging him to do so.TudorRose said:Off topic - Can anyone see Fillon not making it onto the ballot in France?
The date of his appearance before the French courts is two days before the deadline for nominations. The French people who I've spoken to (and who are not particularly political) seem convinced of his 'guilt' already and apparently the French media are having a field day at his expense.
If he doesn't make it onto the ballot (or pulls out after the deadline for nominations) it could make a mess of betting calculations. I'm tempted to put a small amount on Macron getting the job in the first round, although there might still be some value on a different Republican candidate being substituted at the last minute.0 -
Dream on or give your money to charity you can not be a betting man.CornishBlue said:
And Lords abolition. And calls for an early GE.frpenkridge said:I'm delighted and relieved that the Remainers in the Lords have made their first stand on this issue. It should cement the foundations (? metaphor) of public opinion in favour of brexit nicely.
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