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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Brexit: We wuz robbed but is Tony the one to stop it.

Like many 48 per centers I believe last year’s referendum victory for Leave was built on a mountain of mendacity, epitomised by that bus promising £350 million for the NHS.
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Incidentally, where on earth has this idea that PMs "only campaign in byelections if they're sure of winning" come from?? It's not true at all. Cameron even campaigned in the no-hoper of Oldham East in the last parliament (albeit not very effectively):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BOYprzj1-Lo
Essentially Remain can't win the argument now. In two years, who knows. At present, it's simply a question of refusing to have the whole issue shut down.
This is a withering assault;
Don Brind is to political commentary what Don Trump is to international diplomacy!
they think they will be welcomed back in to the fold instead of the cold reception reserved for perfidious Albion.
We shall have a hard Brexit and a frosty relationship with our neighbours for a decade or so, but things will mellow in time. Our hokey cokey with the continent will run for a long while yet. It haz been going for 2000 years already after all!
Lol.
For some of them, we've granted their base wish - an EU unimpeded by Britain.
All that's left now are the terms of the future relationships with the 12% (EU) and the 85% (the world).
I still say the best tactic of either stopping Brexit or (much more feasible) getting the softest kind of Brexit, is to paint the likely alternative to the EU, and ask people whether they think that's an even greater evil than the status quo. That alternative being, to be dominated by Trump's USA, have all our jobs shipped out to the USA, have all our sovereignty given to the USA, and have our NHS thrown open to American private companies.
You don't go out and badger the voters of Broxbourne and tell them that they were misled and made the wrong decision do you? That contention may of course be true, but you respect the democratic process.
Blair, in this instance, doesn't have a coherent argument. He's parachuted himself in and thinks that he can tell us that we've got it wrong. It's a bit unpleasant.
Just as the Tories have the right this week to tell the Copeland electorate that they've been led astray by Labour MPs, and should reconsider their longtime decisions to vote for them.
@paulwaugh: Corbyn challenged at PLP over ICM Tory poll lead. Lab sources say coup still to blame for big gap with Tories but "confident" it'll narrow.
http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2017/02/20/democrats-question-president-trumps-mental-health/
Of course, since he is against the Democrat party, that, to them, is proof enough.
It's the way you tell 'em.
Then see Theresa May's and Boris Johnson's regular expressions of enthusiasm for a trade deal with the person who made that speech.
As remainers look round for the alternatives to stay in maybe you should ask why Europe itself isnt coming back with new proposals to keep us in.
Personally I thought they would, but the silence from across the channel is noticeable.
What is, in fact, most likely to be the case is that the majority of relatively uncommitted voters in the middle feel that they have had their say, the country has made its decision, and they now simply wish to see said decision implemented and see no particular need to keep on discussing the matter ad nauseam.
I suspect that there is a minority of committed Leavers and Remainers abroad in the land, making most of the noise on this topic, whilst the silent majority has already moved on.
https://twitter.com/thetwerkinggirl/status/833639144790306817
The problem with the Remain campaign's arguments last year wasn't that they were daft or implausible, it's that most people didn't care if what they said happened anyway. They need to have arguments which DO make people worried.
I would be just as correct as you to assume that any trade deal will exclude x, y and z.
You don't have a clue, and are bereft of a leader who has a clue, so you're determined to make up the worst of all possible worlds. Learning at the feet of EeyoreObserver?
The entire "progressive" Left looks increasingly like an embattled clique, out of touch and out of sync with a small-c conservative polity, dominated by upper-middle class faux Marxist activists, and with little appeal outside of metropolitan strongholds and university towns.
Even with things as they currently stand in Parliament, all that's keeping them in the game now is Scottish Nationalism, which itself is a double-edged sword. The SNP delivers a reliable bloc of MPs, but most voters in England detest it.
and once agin your position is not to sell a positive case for staying in but to make people "worried"
your weakness in that approach is that enough pople have already lost out so that threat for them is already reality
The alternative of a good deal is not a bad deal. It is no deal.
"Except that that doesn't fit the polling."
You mean the 52 - 48 real vote?
You're old enough to remember the phrase ... "Empty vessels make most sound." And it is true of some Remainers. There is a group suffering from righteous indignation, who still don't understand how they lost.
How dare the uneducated peasants defy their betters? Surely they will soon return to their senses. All we need to do is to berate them until they do.
It was funny at first. Now it's a little sad.
Merge with France.
whereas if it were France....
http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/xrkkkidqmc/InternalResults_170203_Favourability_W.pdf
If the Brexit debate becomes framed as one between being dominated by Brussels and being dominated by Trump (as opposed to last year, whereas it was perceived as a choice between being dominated by Brussels or being a fully independent Britain), then I don't think the outcome would necessarily go the way some might expect.
Arsene Wenger = Hilary Clinton
I so wanted it to follow up with 'just like Paul did at Agincourt and Waterloo'
Brussels isnt exactly falling over itself to keep you in
It's the Brexiteers who've made clear trade deals with the USA and similar are the alternative to the EU, not Remainers.
https://twitter.com/RusevBUL/status/833734142764339200
Rusev is incredible on Twitter.
Referring to experts I draw attention to a recent article in the Economist (February 11 to 17, 2017, page 19ff) that discusses the possible size of a Brexit exit charge. It could be humongous.
http://www.economist.com/news/britain/21716629-bitter-argument-over-money-looms-multi-billion-euro-exit-charge-could-sink-brexit
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-39028982
Secondly there is no particular reason why we would want or need to participate in this process regardless. There are very good reasons why Canada (which is, in population terms at least, half the size of the UK) has not made any moves towards political unification with the US (which is vastly more powerful than the EU,) for example.
Thirdly, in the long run it makes no sense to talk of Britain "wielding power from within," because the eventual aim of the EU project is to abolish its constituent sovereign states and replace them with itself. You can't have influence over anything if you've been legislated out of existence.
“This bus has left,” said one senior EU diplomat.
“No one is happy about it. But we have moved on and the last thing anyone wants now is to reopen the whole issue.”
But the view shared by diplomats from a range of the other 27 EU states, and by some EU officials is this: “It’s going to happen,” one of the latter said. “It’s bureaucratically embedded.”
One long-time senior EU official said few would ultimately want to snub Britain if it had a change of heart. “But,” the person said, “the EU could want to impose some conditions, limiting the special status it has enjoyed in so many areas.”
Never mind which, if May climbed down from BrExit she would be out of office in milliseconds. Graham Brady would not be able to open his office door for all the letter waiting on the doormat.
With arguments like that it is no wonder the Eurofanatics lost.
O/T Also walked past Vince Cable on the tube earlier looking as pensive as ever
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http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-wiltshire-38841587