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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Brexit: We wuz robbed but is Tony the one to stop it.

SystemSystem Posts: 12,553
edited February 2017 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Brexit: We wuz robbed but is Tony the one to stop it.

Like many 48 per centers I believe last year’s referendum victory for Leave was built on a mountain of mendacity, epitomised by that bus promising £350 million for the NHS.

Read the full story here


«134

Comments

  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    First, like Labour in both byelections.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,051
    Second, like the referendum to come.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,011
    The ship has sailed. The EU won't want such a grudging member to return.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    edited February 2017
    I suspect Theresa May's visit to Stoke today is not really about this week's byelection, but more about laying the ground for a challenge in nearby Newcastle under Lyme (one of the Tories' top target seats) in 2020.

    Incidentally, where on earth has this idea that PMs "only campaign in byelections if they're sure of winning" come from?? It's not true at all. Cameron even campaigned in the no-hoper of Oldham East in the last parliament (albeit not very effectively):

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BOYprzj1-Lo
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    QTWTAIN - Next...
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,708
    I think that Blair's speech is useful for Remainers (less so for Labour, maybe), because it keeps open the question of whether we are really going to want to accept whatever we end up with in two years - there is no reason for Remainers to resignedly accept whatever the outcome is, and despite Blair's unpopularity he's recognised as a substantial figure with a coherent line of argument.

    Essentially Remain can't win the argument now. In two years, who knows. At present, it's simply a question of refusing to have the whole issue shut down.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,920
    williamglenn said:

    Second, like the referendum to come.

    Remainers told us constantly there would be no second referendum, so there wont be
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,717
    I think Chuka and Wes are right.
  • TudorRoseTudorRose Posts: 1,683
    Withering assault?

    This is a withering assault;
    Don Brind is to political commentary what Don Trump is to international diplomacy!
  • MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    The anti democrats are coming out of the woodwork.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,920
    Sean_F said:

    The ship has sailed. The EU won't want such a grudging member to return.

    that;s the bit the remainers dont get

    they think they will be welcomed back in to the fold instead of the cold reception reserved for perfidious Albion.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    MonikerDiCanio said:

    The anti democrats are coming out of the woodwork.

    You mean like you sunshine.

  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Alanbrooke said:

    Sean_F said:

    The ship has sailed. The EU won't want such a grudging member to return.

    that;s the bit the remainers dont get

    they think they will be welcomed back in to the fold instead of the cold reception reserved for perfidious Albion.
    I agree, and while Don Brind is right that Brexit was launched on a sea of lies, that is ever the case in politics.

    We shall have a hard Brexit and a frosty relationship with our neighbours for a decade or so, but things will mellow in time. Our hokey cokey with the continent will run for a long while yet. It haz been going for 2000 years already after all!
  • JasonJason Posts: 1,614
    “We have to build this coalition in order to win an election to form a Labour government.”

    Lol.
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    Sean_F said:

    The ship has sailed. The EU won't want such a grudging member to return.

    Of course.

    For some of them, we've granted their base wish - an EU unimpeded by Britain.

    All that's left now are the terms of the future relationships with the 12% (EU) and the 85% (the world).
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    NickPalmer said:

    I think that Blair's speech is useful for Remainers (less so for Labour, maybe), because it keeps open the question of whether we are really going to want to accept whatever we end up with in two years - there is no reason for Remainers to resignedly accept whatever the outcome is, and despite Blair's unpopularity he's recognised as a substantial figure with a coherent line of argument.

    Essentially Remain can't win the argument now. In two years, who knows. At present, it's simply a question of refusing to have the whole issue shut down.

    The problem with Blair's arguments isn't that it's "undemocratic" to try to change people's minds. It's that he's using the exact same arguments that obviously failed to work last June, and putting them forward again is not going to get a different result. People just don't care about abstract statistics about how much GDP is going to decline, how much the pound has fallen, how many big businesses are going to flee, etc.

    I still say the best tactic of either stopping Brexit or (much more feasible) getting the softest kind of Brexit, is to paint the likely alternative to the EU, and ask people whether they think that's an even greater evil than the status quo. That alternative being, to be dominated by Trump's USA, have all our jobs shipped out to the USA, have all our sovereignty given to the USA, and have our NHS thrown open to American private companies.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,732
    NickPalmer said:

    I think that Blair's speech is useful for Remainers (less so for Labour, maybe), because it keeps open the question of whether we are really going to want to accept whatever we end up with in two years - there is no reason for Remainers to resignedly accept whatever the outcome is, and despite Blair's unpopularity he's recognised as a substantial figure with a coherent line of argument.

    Essentially Remain can't win the argument now. In two years, who knows. At present, it's simply a question of refusing to have the whole issue shut down.

    Remainers have to accept the outcome.

    You don't go out and badger the voters of Broxbourne and tell them that they were misled and made the wrong decision do you? That contention may of course be true, but you respect the democratic process.

    Blair, in this instance, doesn't have a coherent argument. He's parachuted himself in and thinks that he can tell us that we've got it wrong. It's a bit unpleasant.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 35,138
    edited February 2017
    Alanbrooke said:

    Sean_F said:

    The ship has sailed. The EU won't want such a grudging member to return.

    that;s the bit the remainers dont get

    they think they will be welcomed back in to the fold instead of the cold reception reserved for perfidious Albion.
    Sadly I fear that is true.We are busily burning our boats. .
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,920
    OldKingCole said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    Sean_F said:

    The ship has sailed. The EU won't want such a grudging member to return.

    that;s the bit the remainers dont get

    they think they will be welcomed back in to the fold instead of the cold reception reserved for perfidious Albion.
    Sadly I fear that is true.We are busily burning our boats. .
    we just need new boats
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    Alanbrooke said:

    Sean_F said:

    The ship has sailed. The EU won't want such a grudging member to return.

    that;s the bit the remainers dont get

    they think they will be welcomed back in to the fold instead of the cold reception reserved for perfidious Albion.

    We can't remain now, it would be a national humiliation. What we can get, though, is a workable deal that leaves us in a kind of nether world of blue passports, pounds and ounces, and the ECJ as the forum for settling disputes relating to new "international agreements". After lots of posturing that's probably where we'll end up. The majority will be fine, die hard Leavers and Remainers will be furious.

  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    edited February 2017
    Omnium said:


    You don't go out and badger the voters of Broxbourne and tell them that they were misled and made the wrong decision do you? That contention may of course be true, but you respect the democratic process.

    No, but he has the right to do that in 2020.

    Just as the Tories have the right this week to tell the Copeland electorate that they've been led astray by Labour MPs, and should reconsider their longtime decisions to vote for them.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,587
    @paulwaugh: Corbyn told the PLP that Copeland and Stoke Central are "on a knife edge"

    @paulwaugh: Corbyn challenged at PLP over ICM Tory poll lead. Lab sources say coup still to blame for big gap with Tories but "confident" it'll narrow.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,226
    Danny565 said:

    NickPalmer said:

    I think that Blair's speech is useful for Remainers (less so for Labour, maybe), because it keeps open the question of whether we are really going to want to accept whatever we end up with in two years - there is no reason for Remainers to resignedly accept whatever the outcome is, and despite Blair's unpopularity he's recognised as a substantial figure with a coherent line of argument.

    Essentially Remain can't win the argument now. In two years, who knows. At present, it's simply a question of refusing to have the whole issue shut down.

    That alternative being, to be dominated by Trump's USA, have all our jobs shipped out to the USA, have all our sovereignty given to the USA, and have our NHS thrown open to American private companies.
    Fake news much?

  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    The last desperate throw of the dice: - The 25th Amendment.

    http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2017/02/20/democrats-question-president-trumps-mental-health/

    Of course, since he is against the Democrat party, that, to them, is proof enough.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    So in the one corner we have a mountain of mendacity, in the other Mr Valiant-for-Truth himself - Tony, porky-pie, 45 minutes, sexed-up dossier Blair.

    It's the way you tell 'em.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Mortimer said:

    Danny565 said:

    NickPalmer said:

    I think that Blair's speech is useful for Remainers (less so for Labour, maybe), because it keeps open the question of whether we are really going to want to accept whatever we end up with in two years - there is no reason for Remainers to resignedly accept whatever the outcome is, and despite Blair's unpopularity he's recognised as a substantial figure with a coherent line of argument.

    Essentially Remain can't win the argument now. In two years, who knows. At present, it's simply a question of refusing to have the whole issue shut down.

    That alternative being, to be dominated by Trump's USA, have all our jobs shipped out to the USA, have all our sovereignty given to the USA, and have our NHS thrown open to American private companies.
    Fake news much?

    See Donald Trump's inauguration speech where he explicitly said any trade deals he signed would have terms slanted towards the USA.

    Then see Theresa May's and Boris Johnson's regular expressions of enthusiasm for a trade deal with the person who made that speech.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,920
    Danny565 said:

    NickPalmer said:

    I think that Blair's speech is useful for Remainers (less so for Labour, maybe), because it keeps open the question of whether we are really going to want to accept whatever we end up with in two years - there is no reason for Remainers to resignedly accept whatever the outcome is, and despite Blair's unpopularity he's recognised as a substantial figure with a coherent line of argument.

    Essentially Remain can't win the argument now. In two years, who knows. At present, it's simply a question of refusing to have the whole issue shut down.

    The problem with Blair's arguments isn't that it's "undemocratic" to try to change people's minds. It's that he's using the exact same arguments that obviously failed to work last June, and putting them forward again is not going to get a different result. People just don't care about abstract statistics about how much GDP is going to decline, how much the pound has fallen, how many big businesses are going to flee, etc.

    I still say the best tactic of either stopping Brexit or (much more feasible) getting the softest kind of Brexit, is to paint the likely alternative to the EU, and ask people whether they think that's an even greater evil than the status quo. That alternative being, to be dominated by Trump's USA, have all our jobs shipped out to the USA, have all our sovereignty given to the USA, and have our NHS thrown open to American private companies.
    who's actually going to believe that ? It's even dafter than the last arguments.

    As remainers look round for the alternatives to stay in maybe you should ask why Europe itself isnt coming back with new proposals to keep us in.

    Personally I thought they would, but the silence from across the channel is noticeable.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    Sean_F said:

    The ship has sailed. The EU won't want such a grudging member to return.

    Precisely.
    NickPalmer said:

    Essentially Remain can't win the argument now. In two years, who knows. At present, it's simply a question of refusing to have the whole issue shut down.

    All arguments like this rest on the assumption that there is a vast bloc of committed Continuity Remainers and another vast bloc of wobbly soft Brexiteers, and if only the latter can be persuaded of the wrongness of their thinking and come and join the former then the Brexit juggernaut can be halted.

    What is, in fact, most likely to be the case is that the majority of relatively uncommitted voters in the middle feel that they have had their say, the country has made its decision, and they now simply wish to see said decision implemented and see no particular need to keep on discussing the matter ad nauseam.

    I suspect that there is a minority of committed Leavers and Remainers abroad in the land, making most of the noise on this topic, whilst the silent majority has already moved on.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,587
    How's Emily Thornberry going to react when she sees this?

    https://twitter.com/thetwerkinggirl/status/833639144790306817
  • MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    weejonnie said:

    The last desperate throw of the dice: - The 25th Amendment.

    http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2017/02/20/democrats-question-president-trumps-mental-health/

    Of course, since he is against the Democrat party, that, to them, is proof enough.

    Soviet tactics, abuse of psychiatry against opposition.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    edited February 2017
    Alanbrooke said:

    Danny565 said:

    NickPalmer said:

    I think that Blair's speech is useful for Remainers (less so for Labour, maybe), because it keeps open the question of whether we are really going to want to accept whatever we end up with in two years - there is no reason for Remainers to resignedly accept whatever the outcome is, and despite Blair's unpopularity he's recognised as a substantial figure with a coherent line of argument.

    Essentially Remain can't win the argument now. In two years, who knows. At present, it's simply a question of refusing to have the whole issue shut down.

    The problem with Blair's arguments isn't that it's "undemocratic" to try to change people's minds. It's that he's using the exact same arguments that obviously failed to work last June, and putting them forward again is not going to get a different result. People just don't care about abstract statistics about how much GDP is going to decline, how much the pound has fallen, how many big businesses are going to flee, etc.

    I still say the best tactic of either stopping Brexit or (much more feasible) getting the softest kind of Brexit, is to paint the likely alternative to the EU, and ask people whether they think that's an even greater evil than the status quo. That alternative being, to be dominated by Trump's USA, have all our jobs shipped out to the USA, have all our sovereignty given to the USA, and have our NHS thrown open to American private companies.
    who's actually going to believe that ?
    Anyone who reads both Trump's inauguration speech, and who reads what May says about potential trade deals with the USA.

    The problem with the Remain campaign's arguments last year wasn't that they were daft or implausible, it's that most people didn't care if what they said happened anyway. They need to have arguments which DO make people worried.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,051
    SouthamObserver said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    Sean_F said:

    The ship has sailed. The EU won't want such a grudging member to return.

    that;s the bit the remainers dont get

    they think they will be welcomed back in to the fold instead of the cold reception reserved for perfidious Albion.

    We can't remain now, it would be a national humiliation.
    Brexit pride comes before a fall. Humiliation is baked in now.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    Black_Rook said:

    Sean_F said:

    The ship has sailed. The EU won't want such a grudging member to return.

    Precisely.
    NickPalmer said:

    Essentially Remain can't win the argument now. In two years, who knows. At present, it's simply a question of refusing to have the whole issue shut down.

    All arguments like this rest on the assumption that there is a vast bloc of committed Continuity Remainers and another vast bloc of wobbly soft Brexiteers, and if only the latter can be persuaded of the wrongness of their thinking and come and join the former then the Brexit juggernaut can be halted.

    What is, in fact, most likely to be the case is that the majority of relatively uncommitted voters in the middle feel that they have had their say, the country has made its decision, and they now simply wish to see said decision implemented and see no particular need to keep on discussing the matter ad nauseam.

    I suspect that there is a minority of committed Leavers and Remainers abroad in the land, making most of the noise on this topic, whilst the silent majority has already moved on.
    Except that that doesn't fit the polling.

  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,226
    Danny565 said:

    Mortimer said:

    Danny565 said:

    NickPalmer said:

    I think that Blair's speech is useful for Remainers (less so for Labour, maybe), because it keeps open the question of whether we are really going to want to accept whatever we end up with in two years - there is no reason for Remainers to resignedly accept whatever the outcome is, and despite Blair's unpopularity he's recognised as a substantial figure with a coherent line of argument.

    Essentially Remain can't win the argument now. In two years, who knows. At present, it's simply a question of refusing to have the whole issue shut down.

    That alternative being, to be dominated by Trump's USA, have all our jobs shipped out to the USA, have all our sovereignty given to the USA, and have our NHS thrown open to American private companies.
    Fake news much?

    See Donald Trump's inauguration speech where he explicitly said any trade deals he signed would have terms slanted towards the USA.

    Then see Theresa May's and Boris Johnson's regular expressions of enthusiasm for a trade deal with the person who made that speech.
    You keep banging on about this. As if it were a deal done.

    I would be just as correct as you to assume that any trade deal will exclude x, y and z.

    You don't have a clue, and are bereft of a leader who has a clue, so you're determined to make up the worst of all possible worlds. Learning at the feet of EeyoreObserver?
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,920
    SouthamObserver said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    Sean_F said:

    The ship has sailed. The EU won't want such a grudging member to return.

    that;s the bit the remainers dont get

    they think they will be welcomed back in to the fold instead of the cold reception reserved for perfidious Albion.

    We can't remain now, it would be a national humiliation. What we can get, though, is a workable deal that leaves us in a kind of nether world of blue passports, pounds and ounces, and the ECJ as the forum for settling disputes relating to new "international agreements". After lots of posturing that's probably where we'll end up. The majority will be fine, die hard Leavers and Remainers will be furious.

    dont be silly, this nation has had much greater humiliations , there's the Eurovision every year for instance
  • Fat_SteveFat_Steve Posts: 361
    Tony Blair ? Is he motivated by the thought that Britain's relationship with Europe is his part of his "legacy" ? He won't help the remain cause. He is a shallow and ultimately rather frivolous man.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 31,938
    williamglenn said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    Sean_F said:

    The ship has sailed. The EU won't want such a grudging member to return.

    that;s the bit the remainers dont get

    they think they will be welcomed back in to the fold instead of the cold reception reserved for perfidious Albion.

    We can't remain now, it would be a national humiliation.
    Brexit pride comes before a fall. Humiliation is baked in now.
    Yes. But you and Alistair Meeks will get through it eventually.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,051
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    How's Emily Thornberry going to react when she sees this?

    Will Labour be the first mainstream party to embrace English nationalism (even before UKIP whose very name precludes it)?
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 31,938
    Everying ignoring the Russian UN ambassador story. Nothing to see here.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,226
    Danny565 said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    Danny565 said:

    NickPalmer said:

    I think that Blair's speech is useful for Remainers (less so for Labour, maybe), because it keeps open the question of whether we are really going to want to accept whatever we end up with in two years - there is no reason for Remainers to resignedly accept whatever the outcome is, and despite Blair's unpopularity he's recognised as a substantial figure with a coherent line of argument.

    Essentially Remain can't win the argument now. In two years, who knows. At present, it's simply a question of refusing to have the whole issue shut down.

    The problem with Blair's arguments isn't that it's "undemocratic" to try to change people's minds. It's that he's using the exact same arguments that obviously failed to work last June, and putting them forward again is not going to get a different result. People just don't care about abstract statistics about how much GDP is going to decline, how much the pound has fallen, how many big businesses are going to flee, etc.

    I still say the best tactic of either stopping Brexit or (much more feasible) getting the softest kind of Brexit, is to paint the likely alternative to the EU, and ask people whether they think that's an even greater evil than the status quo. That alternative being, to be dominated by Trump's USA, have all our jobs shipped out to the USA, have all our sovereignty given to the USA, and have our NHS thrown open to American private companies.
    who's actually going to believe that ?
    Anyone who reads both Trump's inauguration speech, and who reads what May says about potential trade deals with the USA.

    The problem with the Remain campaign's arguments last year wasn't that they were daft or implausible, it's that most people didn't care if what they said happened anyway. They need to have arguments which DO make people worried.
    Tip: carping on a load of fake news won't get people worried.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,226
    Luckyguy1983 said:

    williamglenn said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    Sean_F said:

    The ship has sailed. The EU won't want such a grudging member to return.

    that;s the bit the remainers dont get

    they think they will be welcomed back in to the fold instead of the cold reception reserved for perfidious Albion.

    We can't remain now, it would be a national humiliation.
    Brexit pride comes before a fall. Humiliation is baked in now.
    Yes. But you and Alistair Meeks will get through it eventually.
    Post of the day.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Mortimer said:

    Danny565 said:

    Mortimer said:

    Danny565 said:

    NickPalmer said:

    I think that Blair's speech is useful for Remainers (less so for Labour, maybe), because it keeps open the question of whether we are really going to want to accept whatever we end up with in two years - there is no reason for Remainers to resignedly accept whatever the outcome is, and despite Blair's unpopularity he's recognised as a substantial figure with a coherent line of argument.

    Essentially Remain can't win the argument now. In two years, who knows. At present, it's simply a question of refusing to have the whole issue shut down.

    That alternative being, to be dominated by Trump's USA, have all our jobs shipped out to the USA, have all our sovereignty given to the USA, and have our NHS thrown open to American private companies.
    Fake news much?

    See Donald Trump's inauguration speech where he explicitly said any trade deals he signed would have terms slanted towards the USA.

    Then see Theresa May's and Boris Johnson's regular expressions of enthusiasm for a trade deal with the person who made that speech.
    You keep banging on about this. As if it were a deal done.
    I genuinely don't understand the selective listening some PBTories have with regards to Trump. It doesn't need to be a "deal done", Trump's already stated the preconditions for any trade deal (that it must be slanted towards the States). Do you think he's bluffing?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,715
    Oh for goodness sake (this being a family blog). How much more of this nonsense do we have to take? It's over, it's decided, get over it and work to make the best of the inevitable.
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    Danny565 said:

    Mortimer said:

    Danny565 said:

    Mortimer said:

    Danny565 said:

    NickPalmer said:

    I think that Blair's speech is useful for Remainers (less so for Labour, maybe), because it keeps open the question of whether we are really going to want to accept whatever we end up with in two years - there is no reason for Remainers to resignedly accept whatever the outcome is, and despite Blair's unpopularity he's recognised as a substantial figure with a coherent line of argument.

    Essentially Remain can't win the argument now. In two years, who knows. At present, it's simply a question of refusing to have the whole issue shut down.

    That alternative being, to be dominated by Trump's USA, have all our jobs shipped out to the USA, have all our sovereignty given to the USA, and have our NHS thrown open to American private companies.
    Fake news much?

    See Donald Trump's inauguration speech where he explicitly said any trade deals he signed would have terms slanted towards the USA.

    Then see Theresa May's and Boris Johnson's regular expressions of enthusiasm for a trade deal with the person who made that speech.
    You keep banging on about this. As if it were a deal done.
    I genuinely don't understand the selective listening some PBTories have with regards to Trump. It doesn't need to be a "deal done", Trump's already stated the preconditions for any trade deal (that it must be slanted towards the States). Do you think he's bluffing?
    Agreed.
  • MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    edited February 2017
    williamglenn said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    Sean_F said:

    The ship has sailed. The EU won't want such a grudging member to return.

    that;s the bit the remainers dont get

    they think they will be welcomed back in to the fold instead of the cold reception reserved for perfidious Albion.

    We can't remain now, it would be a national humiliation.
    Brexit pride comes before a fall. Humiliation is baked in now.
    It's the project fear twerps who are eating humble pie. Half-baked pastry puffs.
  • TudorRoseTudorRose Posts: 1,683
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    How's Emily Thornberry going to react when she sees this?

    https://twitter.com/thetwerkinggirl/status/833639144790306817

    I imagine she'll more exercised by the correspondent's name. I am!
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,857
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    How's Emily Thornberry going to react when she sees this?

    https://twitter.com/thetwerkinggirl/status/833639144790306817

    Plan for the potteries? Does it involve demolition?
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    edited February 2017
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    @paulwaugh: Corbyn told the PLP that Copeland and Stoke Central are "on a knife edge"

    @paulwaugh: Corbyn challenged at PLP over ICM Tory poll lead. Lab sources say coup still to blame for big gap with Tories but "confident" it'll narrow.

    In today's ICM poll, Con+Ukip = 57% in the final published result, or 62% in England (comparable figures from GE 2015: 50% and 55% respectively.)

    The entire "progressive" Left looks increasingly like an embattled clique, out of touch and out of sync with a small-c conservative polity, dominated by upper-middle class faux Marxist activists, and with little appeal outside of metropolitan strongholds and university towns.

    Even with things as they currently stand in Parliament, all that's keeping them in the game now is Scottish Nationalism, which itself is a double-edged sword. The SNP delivers a reliable bloc of MPs, but most voters in England detest it.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,920
    Danny565 said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    Danny565 said:

    NickPalmer said:

    I think that Blair's speech is useful for Remainers (less so for Labour, maybe), because it keeps open the question of whether we are really going to want to accept whatever we end up with in two years - there is no reason for Remainers to resignedly accept whatever the outcome is, and despite Blair's unpopularity he's recognised as a substantial figure with a coherent line of argument.

    Essentially Remain can't win the argument now. In two years, who knows. At present, it's simply a question of refusing to have the whole issue shut down.

    The problem with Blair's arguments isn't that it's "undemocratic" to try to change people's minds. It's that he's using the exact same arguments that obviously failed to work last June, and putting them forward again is not going to get a different result. People just don't care about abstract statistics about how much GDP is going to decline, how much the pound has fallen, how many big businesses are going to flee, etc.

    I still say the best tactic of either stopping Brexit or (much more feasible) getting the softest kind of Brexit, is to paint the likely alternative to the EU, and ask people whether they think that's an even greater evil than the status quo. That alternative being, to be dominated by Trump's USA, have all our jobs shipped out to the USA, have all our sovereignty given to the USA, and have our NHS thrown open to American private companies.
    who's actually going to believe that ?
    Anyone who reads both Trump's inauguration speech, and who reads what May says about potential trade deals with the USA.

    The problem with the Remain campaign's arguments last year wasn't that they were daft or implausible, it's that most people didn't care if what they said happened anyway. They need to have arguments which DO make people worried.
    they were daft and they were implausible

    and once agin your position is not to sell a positive case for staying in but to make people "worried"

    your weakness in that approach is that enough pople have already lost out so that threat for them is already reality
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,226
    Danny565 said:

    Mortimer said:

    Danny565 said:

    Mortimer said:

    Danny565 said:

    NickPalmer said:

    I think that Blair's speech is useful for Remainers (less so for Labour, maybe), because it keeps open the question of whether we are really going to want to accept whatever we end up with in two years - there is no reason for Remainers to resignedly accept whatever the outcome is, and despite Blair's unpopularity he's recognised as a substantial figure with a coherent line of argument.

    Essentially Remain can't win the argument now. In two years, who knows. At present, it's simply a question of refusing to have the whole issue shut down.

    That alternative being, to be dominated by Trump's USA, have all our jobs shipped out to the USA, have all our sovereignty given to the USA, and have our NHS thrown open to American private companies.
    Fake news much?

    See Donald Trump's inauguration speech where he explicitly said any trade deals he signed would have terms slanted towards the USA.

    Then see Theresa May's and Boris Johnson's regular expressions of enthusiasm for a trade deal with the person who made that speech.
    You keep banging on about this. As if it were a deal done.
    I genuinely don't understand the selective listening some PBTories have with regards to Trump. It doesn't need to be a "deal done", Trump's already stated the preconditions for any trade deal (that it must be slanted towards the States). Do you think he's bluffing?
    I couldn't care less.

    The alternative of a good deal is not a bad deal. It is no deal.


  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    How's Emily Thornberry going to react when she sees this?

    https://twitter.com/thetwerkinggirl/status/833639144790306817

    What is the red effect on the right trying to be, other than a subliminal "I am crap at graphic design" message? Are we actually looking at a burning cross?
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,386
    Mr Smithson,

    "Except that that doesn't fit the polling."

    You mean the 52 - 48 real vote?

    You're old enough to remember the phrase ... "Empty vessels make most sound." And it is true of some Remainers. There is a group suffering from righteous indignation, who still don't understand how they lost.

    How dare the uneducated peasants defy their betters? Surely they will soon return to their senses. All we need to do is to berate them until they do.

    It was funny at first. Now it's a little sad.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,587
    Ishmael_Z said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    How's Emily Thornberry going to react when she sees this?

    https://twitter.com/thetwerkinggirl/status/833639144790306817

    What is the red effect on the right trying to be, other than a subliminal "I am crap at graphic design" message? Are we actually looking at a burning cross?
    @DanielFurrUK: @TSEofPB That *art work* reminds me of univeristy. 3am in the morning, drunk as Hell, but have a presentation due at 9am. Anything will do.
  • MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    edited February 2017
    Ishmael_Z said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    How's Emily Thornberry going to react when she sees this?

    https://twitter.com/thetwerkinggirl/status/833639144790306817

    What is the red effect on the right trying to be, other than a subliminal "I am crap at graphic design" message? Are we actually looking at a burning cross?
    Gareth Snell's Plan for the Potteris. Incineration or rivers of blood.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,715
    I feel so sorry for the electorate of Stoke. I am sure that when their arrogant, pompous prat of an MP went off to something better paid they thought, well things can only get better. How wrong they were.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 44,032
    SouthamObserver said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    Sean_F said:

    The ship has sailed. The EU won't want such a grudging member to return.

    that;s the bit the remainers dont get

    they think they will be welcomed back in to the fold instead of the cold reception reserved for perfidious Albion.

    We can't remain now, it would be a national humiliation. What we can get, though, is a workable deal that leaves us in a kind of nether world of blue passports, pounds and ounces, and the ECJ as the forum for settling disputes relating to new "international agreements". After lots of posturing that's probably where we'll end up. The majority will be fine, die hard Leavers and Remainers will be furious.

    Agree we can't go back. Ideally we'll get a deal that doesn't impact the economy too badly. But there is no sort of deal we want or could get that would keep us in.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,051
    CD13 said:

    How dare the uneducated peasants defy their betters? Surely they will soon return to their senses. All we need to do is to berate them until they do.

    It was funny at first. Now it's a little sad.

    The people were offered a half-baked permanent half-out status and they sensibly rejected it. Now the contest of ideas is to come up with something to replace it. Full-blooded membership of the EU is back on the agenda in a way that never seemed possible a year ago.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,011
    The fight over Brexit was asymmetric. The Brexiters, like Scottish or Irish nationalists, only had to get lucky once.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,920
    williamglenn said:

    CD13 said:

    How dare the uneducated peasants defy their betters? Surely they will soon return to their senses. All we need to do is to berate them until they do.

    It was funny at first. Now it's a little sad.

    The people were offered a half-baked permanent half-out status and they sensibly rejected it. Now the contest of ideas is to come up with something to replace it. Full-blooded membership of the EU is back on the agenda in a way that never seemed possible a year ago.
    Columbias finest
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,587
    edited February 2017
    TOPPING said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    Sean_F said:

    The ship has sailed. The EU won't want such a grudging member to return.

    that;s the bit the remainers dont get

    they think they will be welcomed back in to the fold instead of the cold reception reserved for perfidious Albion.

    We can't remain now, it would be a national humiliation. What we can get, though, is a workable deal that leaves us in a kind of nether world of blue passports, pounds and ounces, and the ECJ as the forum for settling disputes relating to new "international agreements". After lots of posturing that's probably where we'll end up. The majority will be fine, die hard Leavers and Remainers will be furious.

    Agree we can't go back. Ideally we'll get a deal that doesn't impact the economy too badly. But there is no sort of deal we want or could get that would keep us in.
    We should do what Churchill proposed.

    Merge with France. :lol:
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,226
    williamglenn said:

    CD13 said:

    How dare the uneducated peasants defy their betters? Surely they will soon return to their senses. All we need to do is to berate them until they do.

    It was funny at first. Now it's a little sad.

    The people were offered a half-baked permanent half-out status and they sensibly rejected it. Now the contest of ideas is to come up with something to replace it. Full-blooded membership of the EU is back on the agenda in a way that never seemed possible a year ago.
    Delusion is a dish best served to Remainers, it seems.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,920
    TOPPING said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    Sean_F said:

    The ship has sailed. The EU won't want such a grudging member to return.

    that;s the bit the remainers dont get

    they think they will be welcomed back in to the fold instead of the cold reception reserved for perfidious Albion.

    We can't remain now, it would be a national humiliation. What we can get, though, is a workable deal that leaves us in a kind of nether world of blue passports, pounds and ounces, and the ECJ as the forum for settling disputes relating to new "international agreements". After lots of posturing that's probably where we'll end up. The majority will be fine, die hard Leavers and Remainers will be furious.

    Agree we can't go back. Ideally we'll get a deal that doesn't impact the economy too badly. But there is no sort of deal we want or could get that would keep us in.
    but theyre not coming back trying to keep you in either

    whereas if it were France....
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    In the YouGov Favourability Ratings a few weeks ago, Angela Merkel had MUCH higher ratings with British voters than Trump had (34% compared to 19%).

    http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/xrkkkidqmc/InternalResults_170203_Favourability_W.pdf

    If the Brexit debate becomes framed as one between being dominated by Brussels and being dominated by Trump (as opposed to last year, whereas it was perceived as a choice between being dominated by Brussels or being a fully independent Britain), then I don't think the outcome would necessarily go the way some might expect.
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    Danny565 said:

    In the YouGov Favourability Ratings a few weeks ago, Angela Merkel had MUCH higher ratings with British voters than Trump had (34% compared to 19%).

    http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/xrkkkidqmc/InternalResults_170203_Favourability_W.pdf

    If the Brexit debate becomes framed as one between being dominated by Brussels and being dominated by Trump (as opposed to last year, whereas it was perceived as a choice between being dominated by Brussels or being a fully independent Britain), then I don't think the outcome would necessarily go the way some might expect.

    Even Jeremy Corbyn has higher ratings than Trump in this country. And for all of the critical assessments of Obama on here, Obama was popular President in this country - far more than his predecessor Bush was, and certainly more so than Trump is.
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    Mortimer said:

    Danny565 said:

    NickPalmer said:

    I think that Blair's speech is useful for Remainers (less so for Labour, maybe), because it keeps open the question of whether we are really going to want to accept whatever we end up with in two years - there is no reason for Remainers to resignedly accept whatever the outcome is, and despite Blair's unpopularity he's recognised as a substantial figure with a coherent line of argument.

    Essentially Remain can't win the argument now. In two years, who knows. At present, it's simply a question of refusing to have the whole issue shut down.

    That alternative being, to be dominated by Trump's USA, have all our jobs shipped out to the USA, have all our sovereignty given to the USA, and have our NHS thrown open to American private companies.
    Fake news much?

    If the NHS private companies do a better job is that a problem - or is it merely that the NHS is seen as a religion. Trump has already put pressure on Big Pharma to cut costs of delivery.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,404
    Danny565 said:

    In the YouGov Favourability Ratings a few weeks ago, Angela Merkel had MUCH higher ratings with British voters than Trump had (34% compared to 19%).

    http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/xrkkkidqmc/InternalResults_170203_Favourability_W.pdf

    If the Brexit debate becomes framed as one between being dominated by Brussels and being dominated by Trump (as opposed to last year, whereas it was perceived as a choice between being dominated by Brussels or being a fully independent Britain), then I don't think the outcome would necessarily go the way some might expect.

    Trump is for 4 years - or at worst 8. Brussels is forever.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,404
    williamglenn said:

    CD13 said:

    How dare the uneducated peasants defy their betters? Surely they will soon return to their senses. All we need to do is to berate them until they do.

    It was funny at first. Now it's a little sad.

    The people were offered a half-baked permanent half-out status and they sensibly rejected it. Now the contest of ideas is to come up with something to replace it. Full-blooded membership of the EU is back on the agenda in a way that never seemed possible a year ago.
    Oh how I would love to see the Remainers try and use that argument for real. They would be utterly slaughtered. Your view of the British relationship with the EU really is delusional.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,011
    williamglenn said:

    CD13 said:

    How dare the uneducated peasants defy their betters? Surely they will soon return to their senses. All we need to do is to berate them until they do.

    It was funny at first. Now it's a little sad.

    The people were offered a half-baked permanent half-out status and they sensibly rejected it. Now the contest of ideas is to come up with something to replace it. Full-blooded membership of the EU is back on the agenda in a way that never seemed possible a year ago.
    Charles Stuart will gain the English throne; the Irish will come to their senses and rejoin the Union; the English will come to their senses and return to Rome.
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223
    williamglenn said:

    CD13 said:

    How dare the uneducated peasants defy their betters? Surely they will soon return to their senses. All we need to do is to berate them until they do.

    It was funny at first. Now it's a little sad.

    The people were offered a half-baked permanent half-out status and they sensibly rejected it. Now the contest of ideas is to come up with something to replace it. Full-blooded membership of the EU is back on the agenda in a way that never seemed possible a year ago.
    You are utterly delusional. The number of people who want to transfer additional powers to Brussels is about 10% of the population.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,920
    Come on Sutton

    Arsene Wenger = Hilary Clinton
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,051
    RoyalBlue said:

    williamglenn said:

    CD13 said:

    How dare the uneducated peasants defy their betters? Surely they will soon return to their senses. All we need to do is to berate them until they do.

    It was funny at first. Now it's a little sad.

    The people were offered a half-baked permanent half-out status and they sensibly rejected it. Now the contest of ideas is to come up with something to replace it. Full-blooded membership of the EU is back on the agenda in a way that never seemed possible a year ago.
    You are utterly delusional. The number of people who want to transfer additional powers to Brussels is about 10% of the population.
    Brussels will gain power over the coming years. The question is whether Britain will be wielding that power from within the union, or being subject to it from outside.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,404
    OT got an email this evening from Nuttall asking me to "Play your part in our historic battle this Thursday"

    I so wanted it to follow up with 'just like Paul did at Agincourt and Waterloo'

  • AlsoIndigoAlsoIndigo Posts: 1,852
    edited February 2017
    williamglenn said:

    CD13 said:

    How dare the uneducated peasants defy their betters? Surely they will soon return to their senses. All we need to do is to berate them until they do.

    It was funny at first. Now it's a little sad.

    The people were offered a half-baked permanent half-out status and they sensibly rejected it. Now the contest of ideas is to come up with something to replace it. Full-blooded membership of the EU is back on the agenda in a way that never seemed possible a year ago.
    Except Article 50 will be served within the next month and then we are out, and the show moved on to who is interested in rejoining. Even were joining possible the Eurocrats only today tell us that it would have to be by giving up our opt outs, good luck selling the Euro and Schengen on the doorstep.
    Danny565 said:

    In the YouGov Favourability Ratings a few weeks ago, Angela Merkel had MUCH higher ratings with British voters than Trump had (34% compared to 19%).

    http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/xrkkkidqmc/InternalResults_170203_Favourability_W.pdf

    If the Brexit debate becomes framed as one between being dominated by Brussels and being dominated by Trump (as opposed to last year, whereas it was perceived as a choice between being dominated by Brussels or being a fully independent Britain), then I don't think the outcome would necessarily go the way some might expect.

    Except its about to be too late. Government deal or WTO, there is no remain on the status quo option.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    edited February 2017
    Richard_Tyndall said:

    Danny565 said:

    In the YouGov Favourability Ratings a few weeks ago, Angela Merkel had MUCH higher ratings with British voters than Trump had (34% compared to 19%).

    http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/xrkkkidqmc/InternalResults_170203_Favourability_W.pdf

    If the Brexit debate becomes framed as one between being dominated by Brussels and being dominated by Trump (as opposed to last year, whereas it was perceived as a choice between being dominated by Brussels or being a fully independent Britain), then I don't think the outcome would necessarily go the way some might expect.

    Trump is for 4 years - or at worst 8. Brussels is forever.
    Rationally yes, but, for better or for worse, I'm not sure the voters usually use anything other than a short-term view to make decisions. After all, by the Leave Campaign director's own admission, the promise of a very short-term £350m cash bung for the NHS was decisive in getting them a win last year.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,920
    williamglenn said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    williamglenn said:

    CD13 said:

    How dare the uneducated peasants defy their betters? Surely they will soon return to their senses. All we need to do is to berate them until they do.

    It was funny at first. Now it's a little sad.

    The people were offered a half-baked permanent half-out status and they sensibly rejected it. Now the contest of ideas is to come up with something to replace it. Full-blooded membership of the EU is back on the agenda in a way that never seemed possible a year ago.
    You are utterly delusional. The number of people who want to transfer additional powers to Brussels is about 10% of the population.
    Brussels will gain power over the coming years. The question is whether Britain will be wielding that power from within the union, or being subject to it from outside.
    chortle

    Brussels isnt exactly falling over itself to keep you in

  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    edited February 2017
    Mortimer said:

    Danny565 said:

    Mortimer said:

    Danny565 said:

    Mortimer said:

    Danny565 said:

    NickPalmer said:

    I think that Blair's speech is useful for Remainers (less so for Labour, maybe), because it keeps open the question of whether we are really going to want to accept whatever we end up with in two years - there is no reason for Remainers to resignedly accept whatever the outcome is, and despite Blair's unpopularity he's recognised as a substantial figure with a coherent line of argument.

    Essentially Remain can't win the argument now. In two years, who knows. At present, it's simply a question of refusing to have the whole issue shut down.

    That alternative being, to be dominated by Trump's USA, have all our jobs shipped out to the USA, have all our sovereignty given to the USA, and have our NHS thrown open to American private companies.
    Fake news much?

    See Donald Trump's inauguration speech where he explicitly said any trade deals he signed would have terms slanted towards the USA.

    Then see Theresa May's and Boris Johnson's regular expressions of enthusiasm for a trade deal with the person who made that speech.
    You keep banging on about this. As if it were a deal done.
    I genuinely don't understand the selective listening some PBTories have with regards to Trump. It doesn't need to be a "deal done", Trump's already stated the preconditions for any trade deal (that it must be slanted towards the States). Do you think he's bluffing?
    I couldn't care less.

    The alternative of a good deal is not a bad deal. It is no deal.


    If no deal with the USA is an option, why has Theresa May been constantly using the potential of a deal with them as proof of how successful Brexit will be?

    It's the Brexiteers who've made clear trade deals with the USA and similar are the alternative to the EU, not Remainers.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    I present the next tweet for that large crossover political betting/pro wrestling audience that I know are here.

    https://twitter.com/RusevBUL/status/833734142764339200

    Rusev is incredible on Twitter.
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223
    williamglenn said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    williamglenn said:

    CD13 said:

    How dare the uneducated peasants defy their betters? Surely they will soon return to their senses. All we need to do is to berate them until they do.

    It was funny at first. Now it's a little sad.

    The people were offered a half-baked permanent half-out status and they sensibly rejected it. Now the contest of ideas is to come up with something to replace it. Full-blooded membership of the EU is back on the agenda in a way that never seemed possible a year ago.
    You are utterly delusional. The number of people who want to transfer additional powers to Brussels is about 10% of the population.
    Brussels will gain power over the coming years. The question is whether Britain will be wielding that power from within the union, or being subject to it from outside.
    We do not not wield any power as an actor within the EU; we are a subordinate part of it. Brexit means that we will no longer be subject to its power in many areas, although it will undoubtedly have great influence.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,011
    williamglenn said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    williamglenn said:

    CD13 said:

    How dare the uneducated peasants defy their betters? Surely they will soon return to their senses. All we need to do is to berate them until they do.

    It was funny at first. Now it's a little sad.

    The people were offered a half-baked permanent half-out status and they sensibly rejected it. Now the contest of ideas is to come up with something to replace it. Full-blooded membership of the EU is back on the agenda in a way that never seemed possible a year ago.
    You are utterly delusional. The number of people who want to transfer additional powers to Brussels is about 10% of the population.
    Brussels will gain power over the coming years. The question is whether Britain will be wielding that power from within the union, or being subject to it from outside.
    Brussels is the British Leyland of great powers.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,920
    Sean_F said:

    williamglenn said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    williamglenn said:

    CD13 said:

    How dare the uneducated peasants defy their betters? Surely they will soon return to their senses. All we need to do is to berate them until they do.

    It was funny at first. Now it's a little sad.

    The people were offered a half-baked permanent half-out status and they sensibly rejected it. Now the contest of ideas is to come up with something to replace it. Full-blooded membership of the EU is back on the agenda in a way that never seemed possible a year ago.
    You are utterly delusional. The number of people who want to transfer additional powers to Brussels is about 10% of the population.
    Brussels will gain power over the coming years. The question is whether Britain will be wielding that power from within the union, or being subject to it from outside.
    Brussels is the British Leyland of great powers.
    and that's unfair to the Allegro
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 44,032
    Alanbrooke said:

    TOPPING said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    Sean_F said:

    The ship has sailed. The EU won't want such a grudging member to return.

    that;s the bit the remainers dont get

    they think they will be welcomed back in to the fold instead of the cold reception reserved for perfidious Albion.

    We can't remain now, it would be a national humiliation. What we can get, though, is a workable deal that leaves us in a kind of nether world of blue passports, pounds and ounces, and the ECJ as the forum for settling disputes relating to new "international agreements". After lots of posturing that's probably where we'll end up. The majority will be fine, die hard Leavers and Remainers will be furious.

    Agree we can't go back. Ideally we'll get a deal that doesn't impact the economy too badly. But there is no sort of deal we want or could get that would keep us in.
    but theyre not coming back trying to keep you in either

    whereas if it were France....
    If we could just have a common tariffs zone for booze I would be happy. They could have our Nyetimber and we could have their Bolly. And their Petrus '61.
  • TomsToms Posts: 2,478
    edited February 2017
    The complexity of the act of self harming that is Brexit is certainly beyond me.

    Referring to experts I draw attention to a recent article in the Economist (February 11 to 17, 2017, page 19ff) that discusses the possible size of a Brexit exit charge. It could be humongous.

    http://www.economist.com/news/britain/21716629-bitter-argument-over-money-looms-multi-billion-euro-exit-charge-could-sink-brexit
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    Serbia are in the queue to join the rich, vibrant EU.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-39028982
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,920
    edited February 2017
    TOPPING said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    TOPPING said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    Sean_F said:

    The ship has sailed. The EU won't want such a grudging member to return.

    that;s the bit the remainers dont get

    they think they will be welcomed back in to the fold instead of the cold reception reserved for perfidious Albion.

    We can't remain now, it would be a national humiliation. What we can get, though, is a workable deal that leaves us in a kind of nether world of blue passports, pounds and ounces, and the ECJ as the forum for settling disputes relating to new "international agreements". After lots of posturing that's probably where we'll end up. The majority will be fine, die hard Leavers and Remainers will be furious.

    Agree we can't go back. Ideally we'll get a deal that doesn't impact the economy too badly. But there is no sort of deal we want or could get that would keep us in.
    but theyre not coming back trying to keep you in either

    whereas if it were France....
    If we could just have a common tariffs zone for booze I would be happy. They could have our Nyetimber and we could have their Bolly. And their Petrus '61.
    if youre buying Petrus the Tarif wont even make it into the rounding
  • AlsoIndigoAlsoIndigo Posts: 1,852
    edited February 2017
    Toms said:

    The complexity of the act of self harming that is Brexit is certainly beyond me.

    Referring to experts I draw attention to a recent article in the Economist (February 11 to 17, 2017, page 19ff) that discusses the possible size of a Brexit exit charge. It could be humongous.

    http://www.economist.com/news/britain/21716629-bitter-argument-over-money-looms-multi-billion-euro-exit-charge-could-sink-brexit

    Its matched by the repayment we are due on our share of the value of assets owned by the EU.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,920
    AlsoIndigo said:

    Toms said:

    The complexity of the act of self harming that is Brexit is certainly beyond me.

    Referring to experts I draw attention to a recent article in the Economist (February 11 to 17, 2017, page 19ff) that discusses the possible size of a Brexit exit charge. It could be humongous.

    http://www.economist.com/news/britain/21716629-bitter-argument-over-money-looms-multi-billion-euro-exit-charge-could-sink-brexit

    Its matched by the repayment we are due on our share of the value of assets owned by the EU.
    we should also stick in a claim for unapproved accounts
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    williamglenn said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    williamglenn said:

    CD13 said:

    How dare the uneducated peasants defy their betters? Surely they will soon return to their senses. All we need to do is to berate them until they do.

    It was funny at first. Now it's a little sad.

    The people were offered a half-baked permanent half-out status and they sensibly rejected it. Now the contest of ideas is to come up with something to replace it. Full-blooded membership of the EU is back on the agenda in a way that never seemed possible a year ago.
    You are utterly delusional. The number of people who want to transfer additional powers to Brussels is about 10% of the population.
    Brussels will gain power over the coming years. The question is whether Britain will be wielding that power from within the union, or being subject to it from outside.
    Firstly the central institutions of the EU will only gain greater authority if the member states can agree to make substantive progress towards political union. It is at least as likely that they will remain in complete deadlock or even that things will begin to fall apart and integration will go into reverse.

    Secondly there is no particular reason why we would want or need to participate in this process regardless. There are very good reasons why Canada (which is, in population terms at least, half the size of the UK) has not made any moves towards political unification with the US (which is vastly more powerful than the EU,) for example.

    Thirdly, in the long run it makes no sense to talk of Britain "wielding power from within," because the eventual aim of the EU project is to abolish its constituent sovereign states and replace them with itself. You can't have influence over anything if you've been legislated out of existence.
  • AlsoIndigoAlsoIndigo Posts: 1,852
    edited February 2017
    http://www.euractiv.com/section/all/news/that-bus-has-gone-eu-sees-no-brexit-u-turn-now/

    “This bus has left,” said one senior EU diplomat.

    “No one is happy about it. But we have moved on and the last thing anyone wants now is to reopen the whole issue.”

    But the view shared by diplomats from a range of the other 27 EU states, and by some EU officials is this: “It’s going to happen,” one of the latter said. “It’s bureaucratically embedded.”

    One long-time senior EU official said few would ultimately want to snub Britain if it had a change of heart. “But,” the person said, “the EU could want to impose some conditions, limiting the special status it has enjoyed in so many areas.”

    Never mind which, if May climbed down from BrExit she would be out of office in milliseconds. Graham Brady would not be able to open his office door for all the letter waiting on the doormat.
  • mattmatt Posts: 3,789
    williamglenn said:

    CD13 said:

    How dare the uneducated peasants defy their betters? Surely they will soon return to their senses. All we need to do is to berate them until they do.

    It was funny at first. Now it's a little sad.

    The people were offered a half-baked permanent half-out status and they sensibly rejected it. Now the contest of ideas is to come up with something to replace it. Full-blooded membership of the EU is back on the agenda in a way that never seemed possible a year ago.
    It is, I think, on the agenda in the same way that charm and delight Gillian Anderson is on my agenda.
  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    Alanbrooke said:

    AlsoIndigo said:

    Toms said:

    The complexity of the act of self harming that is Brexit is certainly beyond me.

    Referring to experts I draw attention to a recent article in the Economist (February 11 to 17, 2017, page 19ff) that discusses the possible size of a Brexit exit charge. It could be humongous.

    http://www.economist.com/news/britain/21716629-bitter-argument-over-money-looms-multi-billion-euro-exit-charge-could-sink-brexit

    Its matched by the repayment we are due on our share of the value of assets owned by the EU.
    we should also stick in a claim for unapproved accounts
    Rather like a footballer's divorce, can we also claim a percentage of all future earnings?
  • EssexitEssexit Posts: 1,966
    williamglenn said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    williamglenn said:

    CD13 said:

    How dare the uneducated peasants defy their betters? Surely they will soon return to their senses. All we need to do is to berate them until they do.

    It was funny at first. Now it's a little sad.

    The people were offered a half-baked permanent half-out status and they sensibly rejected it. Now the contest of ideas is to come up with something to replace it. Full-blooded membership of the EU is back on the agenda in a way that never seemed possible a year ago.
    You are utterly delusional. The number of people who want to transfer additional powers to Brussels is about 10% of the population.
    Brussels will gain power over the coming years. The question is whether Britain will be wielding that power from within the union, or being subject to it from outside.
    How did wielding power from within go for 43 years?
  • TomsToms Posts: 2,478
    AlsoIndigo said:

    Toms said:

    The complexity of the act of self harming that is Brexit is certainly beyond me.

    Referring to experts I draw attention to a recent article in the Economist (February 11 to 17, 2017, page 19ff) that discusses the possible size of a Brexit exit charge. It could be humongous.

    http://www.economist.com/news/britain/21716629-bitter-argument-over-money-looms-multi-billion-euro-exit-charge-could-sink-brexit

    Its matched by the repayment we are due on our share of the value of assets owned by the EU.
    We'll see.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,404
    Toms said:

    The complexity of the act of self harming that is Brexit is certainly beyond me.

    Referring to experts I draw attention to a recent article in the Economist (February 11 to 17, 2017, page 19ff) that discusses the possible size of a Brexit exit charge. It could be humongous.

    http://www.economist.com/news/britain/21716629-bitter-argument-over-money-looms-multi-billion-euro-exit-charge-could-sink-brexit

    This really is the dumbest argument the Europhiles have come up with. Even taking the highest figure, what they are actually arguing is that because we might be liable for the equivalent of 4 years gross payments, we should instead commit ourselves to making those gross payments every year for ever more.

    With arguments like that it is no wonder the Eurofanatics lost.
  • AlsoIndigoAlsoIndigo Posts: 1,852
    Toms said:

    AlsoIndigo said:

    Toms said:

    The complexity of the act of self harming that is Brexit is certainly beyond me.

    Referring to experts I draw attention to a recent article in the Economist (February 11 to 17, 2017, page 19ff) that discusses the possible size of a Brexit exit charge. It could be humongous.

    http://www.economist.com/news/britain/21716629-bitter-argument-over-money-looms-multi-billion-euro-exit-charge-could-sink-brexit

    Its matched by the repayment we are due on our share of the value of assets owned by the EU.
    We'll see.
    Or we just walk away and go WTO.
  • MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    edited February 2017
    AlsoIndigo said:

    http://www.euractiv.com/section/all/news/that-bus-has-gone-eu-sees-no-brexit-u-turn-now/

    “This bus has left,” said one senior EU diplomat.

    “No one is happy about it. But we have moved on and the last thing anyone wants now is to reopen the whole issue.”

    But the view shared by diplomats from a range of the other 27 EU states, and by some EU officials is this: “It’s going to happen,” one of the latter said. “It’s bureaucratically embedded.”

    One long-time senior EU official said few would ultimately want to snub Britain if it had a change of heart. “But,” the person said, “the EU could want to impose some conditions, limiting the special status it has enjoyed in so many areas.”

    Never mind which, if May climbed down from BrExit she would be out of office in milliseconds. Graham Brady would not be able to open his office door for all the letter waiting on the doormat.

    Britain's " special status " , picking up the tab.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 128,451
    If anyone is going to lead the campaign to try and maintain as close ties with the EU as possible it has to be Blair, he is still an effective speaker and has the profile necessary and his heart is in the fight as he is a genuine Europhile which was never the case with Cameron and Farron certainly is not going to be able to lead it. Though the campaign really has to focus on making the case for the single market now, not staying in the EU and overturning the referendum.

    O/T Also walked past Vince Cable on the tube earlier looking as pensive as ever
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,451
    IT people - this may be fun:

    https://github.com/maxbbraun/trump2cash

    "This bot watches Donald Trump's tweets and waits for him to mention any publicly traded companies. When he does, it uses sentiment analysis to determine whether his opinions are positive or negative toward those companies. The bot then automatically executes trades on the relevant stocks according to the expected market reaction. It also tweets out a summary of its findings in real time at @Trump2Cash."
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @SkyNewsBreak: President Donald Trump has appointed General H.R. McMaster as his National Security Adviser following the resignation of Michael Flynn
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    edited February 2017
    We spend roughly €30bn per annum on EU contributions and overseas aid, and that doesn't incorporate the internal costs of EU immigration that could be cut using sensible border controls, barred entry and application of 'no recourse to public funds, such as:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-wiltshire-38841587
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    not_on_fire said:

    IT people - this may be fun:

    https://github.com/maxbbraun/trump2cash

    "This bot watches Donald Trump's tweets and waits for him to mention any publicly traded companies. When he does, it uses sentiment analysis to determine whether his opinions are positive or negative toward those companies. The bot then automatically executes trades on the relevant stocks according to the expected market reaction. It also tweets out a summary of its findings in real time at @Trump2Cash."

    To actually trade you need to have a US address, but yes
This discussion has been closed.