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SystemSystem Posts: 12,680
edited February 2017 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The latest PB cartoon on Tony Blair’s Brexit intervention

Cartoon by Helen Cochrane and Nicholas Leonard.

Read the full story here


«13

Comments

  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 45,159
    edited February 2017
    First, I suppose.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 9,339
    Who is Geoffrey?
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Not sure I get the cartoon's point though?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 67,184
    Philip I assume
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 45,159
    Really nice piece about Scottish football fans with some bigger truths about working class feelings of loss - it's not all about teh immigruntz.

    'I want to care like they care. I want a conversion experience': can I learn to love football?'

    http://tinyurl.com/hzw5jl7
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Patrick Ruffini
    We are 1.98% of the way through Trump's first term.
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    Theuniondivvie said:

    Really nice piece about Scottish football fans with some bigger truths about working class feelings of loss - it's not all about teh immigruntz.

    'I want to care like they care. I want a conversion experience': can I learn to love football?'

    http://tinyurl.com/hzw5jl7

    Scotland has to worry more about emigration then immigration.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,891
    Miss Plato, are we? Or will he resign/be impeached/get abducted by aliens?

    Only time will tell.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,868
    PlatoSaid said:

    Patrick Ruffini
    We are 1.98% of the way through Trump's first term.

    So 0.99% of his period in the White House.... It's gonna be a fun ride to Inauguration 2025....
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,107
    MarqueeMark said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    Patrick Ruffini
    We are 1.98% of the way through Trump's first term.

    So 0.99% of his period in the White House.... It's gonna be a fun ride to Inauguration 2025....
    Nothing on inauguration 2029, 2023. Dear dear leader.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 45,159
    nunu said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    Really nice piece about Scottish football fans with some bigger truths about working class feelings of loss - it's not all about teh immigruntz.

    'I want to care like they care. I want a conversion experience': can I learn to love football?'

    http://tinyurl.com/hzw5jl7

    Scotland has to worry more about emigration then immigration.
    Well, if the Yoons get their way..

    https://twitter.com/GrayInGlasgow/status/832929029481230337
  • MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    Jonathan said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    Patrick Ruffini
    We are 1.98% of the way through Trump's first term.

    So 0.99% of his period in the White House.... It's gonna be a fun ride to Inauguration 2025....
    Nothing on inauguration 2029, 2023. Dear dear leader.
    A new FDR. God willing.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180
    What an extraordinary cartoon.
  • TomsToms Posts: 2,478
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Miss Plato, are we? Or will he resign/be impeached/get abducted by aliens?

    Only time will tell.

    Don't forget the possibility of a straitjacket or, irony of ironies, prison.
  • MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    Theuniondivvie said:

    nunu said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    Really nice piece about Scottish football fans with some bigger truths about working class feelings of loss - it's not all about teh immigruntz.

    'I want to care like they care. I want a conversion experience': can I learn to love football?'

    http://tinyurl.com/hzw5jl7

    Scotland has to worry more about emigration then immigration.
    Well, if the Yoons get their way..

    https://twitter.com/GrayInGlasgow/status/832929029481230337
    Emigration, EUDivvie. That's the problem in SNP occupied Scotland, not immigration.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 35,693
    MonikerDiCanio said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    nunu said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    Really nice piece about Scottish football fans with some bigger truths about working class feelings of loss - it's not all about teh immigruntz.

    'I want to care like they care. I want a conversion experience': can I learn to love football?'

    http://tinyurl.com/hzw5jl7

    Scotland has to worry more about emigration then immigration.
    Well, if the Yoons get their way..

    https://twitter.com/GrayInGlasgow/status/832929029481230337
    Emigration, EUDivvie. That's the problem in SNP occupied Scotland, not immigration.
    It’s all those b@%%£y English moving into Scotland.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    felix said:

    What an extraordinary cartoon.

    Not getting it...
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 81,111
    felix said:

    What an extraordinary cartoon.

    Indeed; I thought the phrase 'fake news' had been banned here ?
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Oh dear, Leicester :-(
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    Charles said:

    Not sure I get the cartoon's point though?

    Not just me then.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 61,392
    It seems appropriate to post this:

    http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/politics/politics-headlines/blair-to-die-for-our-sins-20170217122339
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 35,693
    Dr Fox will NOT be happy. Millwall 1 Leicester 0.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 61,392
    MarqueeMark said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    Patrick Ruffini
    We are 1.98% of the way through Trump's first term.

    So 0.99% of his period in the White House.... It's gonna be a fun ride to Inauguration 2025....
    I would have thought that as you get into a second term, then the risks of death or serious illness get quite significant.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 45,159
    OldKingCole said:

    MonikerDiCanio said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    nunu said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    Really nice piece about Scottish football fans with some bigger truths about working class feelings of loss - it's not all about teh immigruntz.

    'I want to care like they care. I want a conversion experience': can I learn to love football?'

    http://tinyurl.com/hzw5jl7

    Scotland has to worry more about emigration then immigration.
    Well, if the Yoons get their way..

    https://twitter.com/GrayInGlasgow/status/832929029481230337
    Emigration, EUDivvie. That's the problem in SNP occupied Scotland, not immigration.
    It’s all those b@%%£y English moving into Scotland.
    Nativist Monica believes that the movement of 'indigenous' people from England to Scotland isn't really immigration, it's just the foreigners that count. Like so many Kippery folk, living in mainland EU gives her the requiste distance to see this clearly.
  • MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    edited February 2017
    OldKingCole said:

    MonikerDiCanio said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    nunu said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    Really nice piece about Scottish football fans with some bigger truths about working class feelings of loss - it's not all about teh immigruntz.

    'I want to care like they care. I want a conversion experience': can I learn to love football?'

    http://tinyurl.com/hzw5jl7

    Scotland has to worry more about emigration then immigration.
    Well, if the Yoons get their way..

    https://twitter.com/GrayInGlasgow/status/832929029481230337
    Emigration, EUDivvie. That's the problem in SNP occupied Scotland, not immigration.
    It’s all those b@%%£y English moving into Scotland.
    A few eccentrics, maybe. Scottish history is largely defined by a popular urge to emigrate to England or territories civilized by Englishmen.
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    Maybe the cartoonist should consider the writing on the door. retsiniM emirP - unless of course it is her secretary speaking.
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    rcs1000 said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    Patrick Ruffini
    We are 1.98% of the way through Trump's first term.

    So 0.99% of his period in the White House.... It's gonna be a fun ride to Inauguration 2025....
    I would have thought that as you get into a second term, then the risks of death or serious illness get quite significant.
    Certainly if you look at the faces of British Prime Ministers as the years pass, they quickly start appearing crinkled and careworn as the strain of office takes its toll.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 35,693
    Theuniondivvie said:

    OldKingCole said:

    MonikerDiCanio said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    nunu said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    Really nice piece about Scottish football fans with some bigger truths about working class feelings of loss - it's not all about teh immigruntz.

    'I want to care like they care. I want a conversion experience': can I learn to love football?'

    http://tinyurl.com/hzw5jl7

    Scotland has to worry more about emigration then immigration.
    Well, if the Yoons get their way..

    https://twitter.com/GrayInGlasgow/status/832929029481230337
    Emigration, EUDivvie. That's the problem in SNP occupied Scotland, not immigration.
    It’s all those b@%%£y English moving into Scotland.
    Nativist Monica believes that the movement of 'indigenous' people from England to Scotland isn't really immigration, it's just the foreigners that count. Like so many Kippery folk, living in mainland EU gives her the requiste distance to see this clearly.
    My sister and brother-in-law moved to Scotland .... edge of the Highlands.....over 50 years ago, and brought up their family there. All their children were born there.
    However, my nieces were, apparently, always known at school as ‘The English Girls’, although even the two who moved to England after Uni have definite Scots accents.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 81,111
    rcs1000 said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    Patrick Ruffini
    We are 1.98% of the way through Trump's first term.

    So 0.99% of his period in the White House.... It's gonna be a fun ride to Inauguration 2025....
    I would have thought that as you get into a second term, then the risks of death or serious illness get quite significant.
    True, but what about Trump himself ?
    :-)
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 61,392
    edited February 2017
    I don't know if anyone's mentioned this before, but Geert Wilder's PVV has fallen back quite dramatically in the Netherlands. I&O Research had a poll out this week that had them on just 20 seats (out of the 150 seat parliament), 4 behind the ruling VVD, and equal with the fanatically pro-EU D66.

    While this may be an outlier, almost all the polls have the PVV down sharply from the beginning of the year. Below are the latest scores (by pollster) compared to where they had the party two months ago: 
                    Now     End Dec Change
    Ipsos           27      29      -2
    I&O             20      33      -13
    De Stemming     26      29      -3
    TNS Nipo        27      36      -9
    Peil            30      35      -5
    Peil has a new poll out tomorrow; it will be interesting to see if it shows a similar trend.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    rcs1000 said:

    I don't know if anyone's mentioned this before, but Geert Wilder's PVV has fallen back quite dramatically in the Netherlands. I&O Research had a poll out this week that had them on just 20 seats (out of the 150 seat parliament), 4 behind the ruling VVD, and equal with the fanatically pro-EU D66.

    While this may be an outlier, almost all the polls have the PVV down sharply from the beginning of the year. Below are the latest scores (by pollster) compared to where they had the party two months ago:

                    Now     End Dec Change
    Ipsos           27      29      -2
    I&O             20      33      -13
    De Stemming     26      29      -3
    TNS Nipo        27      36      -9
    Peil            30      35      -5
    The Trump effect?

  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    edited February 2017
    rcs1000 said:

    I don't know if anyone's mentioned this before, but Geert Wilder's PVV has fallen back quite dramatically in the Netherlands. I&O Research had a poll out this week that had them on just 20 seats (out of the 150 seat parliament), 4 behind the ruling VVD, and equal with the fanatically pro-EU D66.

    While this may be an outlier, almost all the polls have the PVV down sharply from the beginning of the year. Below are the latest scores (by pollster) compared to where they had the party two months ago:

                    Now     End Dec Change
    Ipsos           27      29      -2
    I&O             20      33      -13
    De Stemming     26      29      -3
    TNS Nipo        27      36      -9
    Peil            30      35      -5
    Peil has a new poll out tomorrow; it will be interesting to see if it shows a similar trend.
    PVV tend to underperform on the day too as I recall.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 61,392
    weejonnie said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    Patrick Ruffini
    We are 1.98% of the way through Trump's first term.

    So 0.99% of his period in the White House.... It's gonna be a fun ride to Inauguration 2025....
    I would have thought that as you get into a second term, then the risks of death or serious illness get quite significant.
    Certainly if you look at the faces of British Prime Ministers as the years pass, they quickly start appearing crinkled and careworn as the strain of office takes its toll.
    Being President (or Prime Minister) is a deeply stressful job, that usually adds about two decades to how people look over the course of office.

    Trump is coming to his Presidency with a uniquely (and engagingly) high degree of energy. There are few in their 70s who could keep this pace up without consequences.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,455
    rcs1000 said:

    I don't know if anyone's mentioned this before, but Geert Wilder's PVV has fallen back quite dramatically in the Netherlands. I&O Research had a poll out this week that had them on just 20 seats (out of the 150 seat parliament), 4 behind the ruling VVD, and equal with the fanatically pro-EU D66.

    While this may be an outlier, almost all the polls have the PVV down sharply from the beginning of the year. Below are the latest scores (by pollster) compared to where they had the party two months ago:

                    Now     End Dec Change
    Ipsos           27      29      -2
    I&O             20      33      -13
    De Stemming     26      29      -3
    TNS Nipo        27      36      -9
    Peil            30      35      -5
    Peil has a new poll out tomorrow; it will be interesting to see if it shows a similar trend.
    As the PVV and VVD fight it out, I think the 3.45 and 3.5 I was able to get on the VVD (most seats) was value, but only for small amounts. There's possibly more value in the PM market, laying Wilders at 4.5 - smaller return but he would need plenty of allies and someone with a bit more local knowledge will know if he's likely to get it. Or if he can be a PM on a minority government for long enough for the bet...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 130,244
    rcs1000 said:

    I don't know if anyone's mentioned this before, but Geert Wilder's PVV has fallen back quite dramatically in the Netherlands. I&O Research had a poll out this week that had them on just 20 seats (out of the 150 seat parliament), 4 behind the ruling VVD, and equal with the fanatically pro-EU D66.

    While this may be an outlier, almost all the polls have the PVV down sharply from the beginning of the year. Below are the latest scores (by pollster) compared to where they had the party two months ago:

                    Now     End Dec Change
    Ipsos           27      29      -2
    I&O             20      33      -13
    De Stemming     26      29      -3
    TNS Nipo        27      36      -9
    Peil            30      35      -5
    Peil has a new poll out tomorrow; it will be interesting to see if it shows a similar trend.
    As far as I can see it all the latest Dutch polls bar I&O still have the PVV projected to win most seats
    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Dutch_general_election,_2017
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 61,392
    (Also to note re the Netherlands; the nature of the elections are strictly proportional, and you need 0.66% of the vote to get an MP. This means that there are often a number of "one man" parties that don't get picked up in the opinion polls, which sneak in. For this reason, we might be overstating the number of seats that the larger established parties get.)
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 61,392
    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    I don't know if anyone's mentioned this before, but Geert Wilder's PVV has fallen back quite dramatically in the Netherlands. I&O Research had a poll out this week that had them on just 20 seats (out of the 150 seat parliament), 4 behind the ruling VVD, and equal with the fanatically pro-EU D66.

    While this may be an outlier, almost all the polls have the PVV down sharply from the beginning of the year. Below are the latest scores (by pollster) compared to where they had the party two months ago:

                    Now     End Dec Change
    Ipsos           27      29      -2
    I&O             20      33      -13
    De Stemming     26      29      -3
    TNS Nipo        27      36      -9
    Peil            30      35      -5
    Peil has a new poll out tomorrow; it will be interesting to see if it shows a similar trend.
    As far as I can see it all the latest Dutch polls bar I&O still have the PVV projected to win most seats
    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Dutch_general_election,_2017
    They do. My point is solely that if you drift back three or six months, most pollsters had them winning between 30 and 35 seats in parliament. And now only one has them in the 30s, and that may well change when they release their poll tomorrow.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 45,159
    OldKingCole said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    OldKingCole said:

    MonikerDiCanio said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    nunu said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    Really nice piece about Scottish football fans with some bigger truths about working class feelings of loss - it's not all about teh immigruntz.

    'I want to care like they care. I want a conversion experience': can I learn to love football?'

    http://tinyurl.com/hzw5jl7

    Scotland has to worry more about emigration then immigration.
    Well, if the Yoons get their way..

    https://twitter.com/GrayInGlasgow/status/832929029481230337
    Emigration, EUDivvie. That's the problem in SNP occupied Scotland, not immigration.
    It’s all those b@%%£y English moving into Scotland.
    Nativist Monica believes that the movement of 'indigenous' people from England to Scotland isn't really immigration, it's just the foreigners that count. Like so many Kippery folk, living in mainland EU gives her the requiste distance to see this clearly.
    My sister and brother-in-law moved to Scotland .... edge of the Highlands.....over 50 years ago, and brought up their family there. All their children were born there.
    However, my nieces were, apparently, always known at school as ‘The English Girls’, although even the two who moved to England after Uni have definite Scots accents.
    I'd assume that's partially a consequence of living in a smaller community and similar identifiers may be applied. My dad lived in South Harris for the last 10 years of his life but tended to be known as Tormod Rubha (Norman from Point, a peninsula north of Stornoway).
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 61,392
    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    rcs1000 said:

    I don't know if anyone's mentioned this before, but Geert Wilder's PVV has fallen back quite dramatically in the Netherlands. I&O Research had a poll out this week that had them on just 20 seats (out of the 150 seat parliament), 4 behind the ruling VVD, and equal with the fanatically pro-EU D66.

    While this may be an outlier, almost all the polls have the PVV down sharply from the beginning of the year. Below are the latest scores (by pollster) compared to where they had the party two months ago:

                    Now     End Dec Change
    Ipsos           27      29      -2
    I&O             20      33      -13
    De Stemming     26      29      -3
    TNS Nipo        27      36      -9
    Peil            30      35      -5
    Peil has a new poll out tomorrow; it will be interesting to see if it shows a similar trend.
    As the PVV and VVD fight it out, I think the 3.45 and 3.5 I was able to get on the VVD (most seats) was value, but only for small amounts. There's possibly more value in the PM market, laying Wilders at 4.5 - smaller return but he would need plenty of allies and someone with a bit more local knowledge will know if he's likely to get it. Or if he can be a PM on a minority government for long enough for the bet...
    The fragmentation in the Netherlands is extraordinary. Let's imagine the PVV wins with (say) 25 seats. It will still have barely more seats than the combined total of the Green Party and the Party of the Animals (20 to 24 seats depending on the pollster).

    There are three political parties in the Dutch parliament that would fall inside Cameron's Conservatives - the VVD, the CDA and the CU - who will get roughly 50 seats between them. And then there's the over 50s pressure group / party (9-10 seats), and the LibDem-like D66 (15-20 seats). And then there are the Socialists.

    Coalition building will be fun :smile:
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    MonikerDiCanio said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    nunu said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    Really nice piece about Scottish football fans with some bigger truths about working class feelings of loss - it's not all about teh immigruntz.

    'I want to care like they care. I want a conversion experience': can I learn to love football?'

    http://tinyurl.com/hzw5jl7

    Scotland has to worry more about emigration then immigration.
    Well, if the Yoons get their way..

    https://twitter.com/GrayInGlasgow/status/832929029481230337
    Emigration, EUDivvie. That's the problem in SNP occupied Scotland, not immigration.
    Joyous & Civic eh?

    Not at all divisive

    There is a problem with too much immigration in Scotland?

    Agree: 47%
    Disagree: 39%

    Oh dear, I don't think that was in the script, well, never mind - how about the holier than thou SNP voter?

    Agree: 40%
    Disagree: 48%

    So 40% of SNP voters are racists are they?

    http://wingsoverscotland.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/02/immigpoll.jpg
  • MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    OldKingCole said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    OldKingCole said:

    MonikerDiCanio said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    nunu said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    Really nice piece about Scottish football fans with some bigger truths about working class feelings of loss - it's not all about teh immigruntz.

    'I want to care like they care. I want a conversion experience': can I learn to love football?'

    http://tinyurl.com/hzw5jl7

    Scotland has to worry more about emigration then immigration.
    Well, if the Yoons get their way..

    https://twitter.com/GrayInGlasgow/status/832929029481230337
    Emigration, EUDivvie. That's the problem in SNP occupied Scotland, not immigration.
    It’s all those b@%%£y English moving into Scotland.
    Nativist Monica believes that the movement of 'indigenous' people from England to Scotland isn't really immigration, it's just the foreigners that count. Like so many Kippery folk, living in mainland EU gives her the requiste distance to see this clearly.
    My sister and brother-in-law moved to Scotland .... edge of the Highlands.....over 50 years ago, and brought up their family there. All their children were born there.
    However, my nieces were, apparently, always known at school as ‘The English Girls’, although even the two who moved to England after Uni have definite Scots accents.
    Only two escaped. How many unfortunate nieces did your poor sister bear ?
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180
    Nigelb said:

    felix said:

    What an extraordinary cartoon.

    Indeed; I thought the phrase 'fake news' had been banned here ?
    Only the nasty rightwing fake news I guess - those big yellow bar charts are still ok :)
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,537
    SouthamObserver said:

    rcs1000 said:

    I don't know if anyone's mentioned this before, but Geert Wilder's PVV has fallen back quite dramatically in the Netherlands. I&O Research had a poll out this week that had them on just 20 seats (out of the 150 seat parliament), 4 behind the ruling VVD, and equal with the fanatically pro-EU D66.

    While this may be an outlier, almost all the polls have the PVV down sharply from the beginning of the year. Below are the latest scores (by pollster) compared to where they had the party two months ago:

                    Now     End Dec Change
    Ipsos           27      29      -2
    I&O             20      33      -13
    De Stemming     26      29      -3
    TNS Nipo        27      36      -9
    Peil            30      35      -5
    The Trump effect?

    The VVD are trying hard to win PVV voters.
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    MonikerDiCanio said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    nunu said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    Really nice piece about Scottish football fans with some bigger truths about working class feelings of loss - it's not all about teh immigruntz.

    'I want to care like they care. I want a conversion experience': can I learn to love football?'

    http://tinyurl.com/hzw5jl7

    Scotland has to worry more about emigration then immigration.
    Well, if the Yoons get their way..

    https://twitter.com/GrayInGlasgow/status/832929029481230337
    Emigration, EUDivvie. That's the problem in SNP occupied Scotland, not immigration.
    Michael Gray
    ‏@GrayInGlasgow
    Not unanimous: but a clear 37% difference in positions. There's way more isolationist nationalism on the UK side that the indyScot side.

    Are Scot Nats even self aware at all.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 130,244
    edited February 2017
    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    I don't know if anyone's mentioned this before, but Geert Wilder's PVV has fallen back quite dramatically in the Netherlands. I&O Research had a poll out this week that had them on just 20 seats (out of the 150 seat parliament), 4 behind the ruling VVD, and equal with the fanatically pro-EU D66.

    While this may be an outlier, almost all the polls have the PVV down sharply from the beginning of the year. Below are the latest scores (by pollster) compared to where they had the party two months ago:

                    Now     End Dec Change
    Ipsos           27      29      -2
    I&O             20      33      -13
    De Stemming     26      29      -3
    TNS Nipo        27      36      -9
    Peil            30      35      -5
    Peil has a new poll out tomorrow; it will be interesting to see if it shows a similar trend.
    As far as I can see it all the latest Dutch polls bar I&O still have the PVV projected to win most seats
    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Dutch_general_election,_2017
    They do. My point is solely that if you drift back three or six months, most pollsters had them winning between 30 and 35 seats in parliament. And now only one has them in the 30s, and that may well change when they release their poll tomorrow.
    If you go back to last October and November plenty of polls had the VVD ahead and indeed I&O on November 3rd had the PVV on 21 seats (they are now down 1 from that) and the VVD on 28 (they are now down 4 on that). The biggest gainers since then have not been the VVD but D66 who are up 4 and the Greens who are up 5

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Dutch_general_election,_2017
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,537
    rcs1000 said:

    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    rcs1000 said:

    I don't know if anyone's mentioned this before, but Geert Wilder's PVV has fallen back quite dramatically in the Netherlands. I&O Research had a poll out this week that had them on just 20 seats (out of the 150 seat parliament), 4 behind the ruling VVD, and equal with the fanatically pro-EU D66.

    While this may be an outlier, almost all the polls have the PVV down sharply from the beginning of the year. Below are the latest scores (by pollster) compared to where they had the party two months ago:

                    Now     End Dec Change
    Ipsos           27      29      -2
    I&O             20      33      -13
    De Stemming     26      29      -3
    TNS Nipo        27      36      -9
    Peil            30      35      -5
    Peil has a new poll out tomorrow; it will be interesting to see if it shows a similar trend.
    As the PVV and VVD fight it out, I think the 3.45 and 3.5 I was able to get on the VVD (most seats) was value, but only for small amounts. There's possibly more value in the PM market, laying Wilders at 4.5 - smaller return but he would need plenty of allies and someone with a bit more local knowledge will know if he's likely to get it. Or if he can be a PM on a minority government for long enough for the bet...
    The fragmentation in the Netherlands is extraordinary. Let's imagine the PVV wins with (say) 25 seats. It will still have barely more seats than the combined total of the Green Party and the Party of the Animals (20 to 24 seats depending on the pollster).

    There are three political parties in the Dutch parliament that would fall inside Cameron's Conservatives - the VVD, the CDA and the CU - who will get roughly 50 seats between them. And then there's the over 50s pressure group / party (9-10 seats), and the LibDem-like D66 (15-20 seats). And then there are the Socialists.

    Coalition building will be fun :smile:
    And the Calvinists. It's like the DUP winning 30 seats in Parliament.
  • MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    nunu said:

    MonikerDiCanio said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    nunu said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    Really nice piece about Scottish football fans with some bigger truths about working class feelings of loss - it's not all about teh immigruntz.

    'I want to care like they care. I want a conversion experience': can I learn to love football?'

    http://tinyurl.com/hzw5jl7

    Scotland has to worry more about emigration then immigration.
    Well, if the Yoons get their way..

    https://twitter.com/GrayInGlasgow/status/832929029481230337
    Emigration, EUDivvie. That's the problem in SNP occupied Scotland, not immigration.
    Michael Gray
    ‏@GrayInGlasgow
    Not unanimous: but a clear 37% difference in positions. There's way more isolationist nationalism on the UK side that the indyScot side.

    Are Scot Nats even self aware at all.

    They're frauds. See childless Sturgeon's unkept promise to house refugees in any of her many residences.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 130,244
    Sean_F said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    rcs1000 said:

    I don't know if anyone's mentioned this before, but Geert Wilder's PVV has fallen back quite dramatically in the Netherlands. I&O Research had a poll out this week that had them on just 20 seats (out of the 150 seat parliament), 4 behind the ruling VVD, and equal with the fanatically pro-EU D66.

    While this may be an outlier, almost all the polls have the PVV down sharply from the beginning of the year. Below are the latest scores (by pollster) compared to where they had the party two months ago:

                    Now     End Dec Change
    Ipsos           27      29      -2
    I&O             20      33      -13
    De Stemming     26      29      -3
    TNS Nipo        27      36      -9
    Peil            30      35      -5
    The Trump effect?

    The VVD are trying hard to win PVV voters.
    Indeed and given PM and VVD leader Rutte recently warned migrants to 'be normal or be gone' and he is almost certain to be reelected PM even if Wilders wins most seats I think the idea anti immigration sentiment in the Netherlands has disappeared post Brexit and post Trump is rather optimistic!
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/01/23/dutch-prime-minister-warns-migrants-normal-gone-fends-populist/
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    CarlottaVance said:

    MonikerDiCanio said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    nunu said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    Really nice piece about Scottish football fans with some bigger truths about working class feelings of loss - it's not all about teh immigruntz.

    'I want to care like they care. I want a conversion experience': can I learn to love football?'

    http://tinyurl.com/hzw5jl7

    Scotland has to worry more about emigration then immigration.
    Well, if the Yoons get their way..

    https://twitter.com/GrayInGlasgow/status/832929029481230337
    Emigration, EUDivvie. That's the problem in SNP occupied Scotland, not immigration.
    Joyous & Civic eh?

    Not at all divisive

    There is a problem with too much immigration in Scotland?

    Agree: 47%
    Disagree: 39%

    Oh dear, I don't think that was in the script, well, never mind - how about the holier than thou SNP voter?

    Agree: 40%
    Disagree: 48%

    So 40% of SNP voters are racists are they?

    http://wingsoverscotland.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/02/immigpoll.jpg
    Immigration is much lower per capita in Scotland and still they think it's too high.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,783
    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    I don't know if anyone's mentioned this before, but Geert Wilder's PVV has fallen back quite dramatically in the Netherlands. I&O Research had a poll out this week that had them on just 20 seats (out of the 150 seat parliament), 4 behind the ruling VVD, and equal with the fanatically pro-EU D66.

    While this may be an outlier, almost all the polls have the PVV down sharply from the beginning of the year. Below are the latest scores (by pollster) compared to where they had the party two months ago:

                    Now     End Dec Change
    Ipsos           27      29      -2
    I&O             20      33      -13
    De Stemming     26      29      -3
    TNS Nipo        27      36      -9
    Peil            30      35      -5
    Peil has a new poll out tomorrow; it will be interesting to see if it shows a similar trend.
    As far as I can see it all the latest Dutch polls bar I&O still have the PVV projected to win most seats
    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Dutch_general_election,_2017
    They're about 9 seats down from their peak polling, and it's not the conservative VVD that has benefited but the pro-EU D66 and the Greens and Party of the Animals(which is doing really well for a nice party - projected up to 5 seats). Lots of publicity for Wilders today so we'll see what happpens
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223
    https://order-order.com/2017/02/17/68-want-government-get-brexit/

    Only 15% think the government should not implement Brexit.

    Should this merit its own thread?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 130,244
    edited February 2017
    NickPalmer said:

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    I don't know if anyone's mentioned this before, but Geert Wilder's PVV has fallen back quite dramatically in the Netherlands. I&O Research had a poll out this week that had them on just 20 seats (out of the 150 seat parliament), 4 behind the ruling VVD, and equal with the fanatically pro-EU D66.

    While this may be an outlier, almost all the polls have the PVV down sharply from the beginning of the year. Below are the latest scores (by pollster) compared to where they had the party two months ago:

                    Now     End Dec Change
    Ipsos           27      29      -2
    I&O             20      33      -13
    De Stemming     26      29      -3
    TNS Nipo        27      36      -9
    Peil            30      35      -5
    Peil has a new poll out tomorrow; it will be interesting to see if it shows a similar trend.
    As far as I can see it all the latest Dutch polls bar I&O still have the PVV projected to win most seats
    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Dutch_general_election,_2017
    They're about 9 seats down from their peak polling, and it's not the conservative VVD that has benefited but the pro-EU D66 and the Greens and Party of the Animals(which is doing really well for a nice party - projected up to 5 seats). Lots of publicity for Wilders today so we'll see what happpens
    From peak polling but they are not that far off from where they were in most polls last year, they may have lost a little to the VVD as it has ramped up anti immigration rhetoric too and the VVD has in turn lost a little to D66 because of that (the Dutch Labour Party is also well down on the last election which is why the Greens are up).
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 61,392
    edited February 2017
    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    I don't know if anyone's mentioned this before, but Geert Wilder's PVV has fallen back quite dramatically in the Netherlands. I&O Research had a poll out this week that had them on just 20 seats (out of the 150 seat parliament), 4 behind the ruling VVD, and equal with the fanatically pro-EU D66.

    While this may be an outlier, almost all the polls have the PVV down sharply from the beginning of the year. Below are the latest scores (by pollster) compared to where they had the party two months ago:

                    Now     End Dec Change
    Ipsos           27      29      -2
    I&O             20      33      -13
    De Stemming     26      29      -3
    TNS Nipo        27      36      -9
    Peil            30      35      -5
    Peil has a new poll out tomorrow; it will be interesting to see if it shows a similar trend.
    As far as I can see it all the latest Dutch polls bar I&O still have the PVV projected to win most seats
    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Dutch_general_election,_2017
    They do. My point is solely that if you drift back three or six months, most pollsters had them winning between 30 and 35 seats in parliament. And now only one has them in the 30s, and that may well change when they release their poll tomorrow.
    If you go back to last October and November plenty of polls had the VVD ahead and indeed I&O on November 3rd had the PVV on 21 seats (they are now down 1 from that) and the VVD on 28 (they are now down 4 on that). The biggest gainers since then have not been the VVD but D66 who are up 4 and the Greens who are up 5

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Dutch_general_election,_2017
    I don't disgree.

    Here's a nice chart from that link which shows the PVV has come off its recent highs, but it above its November lows, mostly to the benefit of the pro-EU D66, the Greens, the CDA and 50+.

    image
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 45,159
    nunu said:

    MonikerDiCanio said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    nunu said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    Really nice piece about Scottish football fans with some bigger truths about working class feelings of loss - it's not all about teh immigruntz.

    'I want to care like they care. I want a conversion experience': can I learn to love football?'

    http://tinyurl.com/hzw5jl7

    Scotland has to worry more about emigration then immigration.
    Well, if the Yoons get their way..

    https://twitter.com/GrayInGlasgow/status/832929029481230337
    Emigration, EUDivvie. That's the problem in SNP occupied Scotland, not immigration.
    Michael Gray
    ‏@GrayInGlasgow
    Not unanimous: but a clear 37% difference in positions. There's way more isolationist nationalism on the UK side that the indyScot side.

    Are Scot Nats even self aware at all.

    Oh gawd, not the internationalist bucaneering Brexiteers trading with the world* bollox again.

    *Only English speakers need apply.
  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    RoyalBlue said:

    https://order-order.com/2017/02/17/68-want-government-get-brexit/

    Only 15% think the government should not implement Brexit.

    Should this merit its own thread?

    It may well merit a thread but it won't get one here.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 61,392
    edited February 2017
    HYUFD said:

    NickPalmer said:

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    I don't know if anyone's mentioned this before, but Geert Wilder's PVV has fallen back quite dramatically in the Netherlands. I&O Research had a poll out this week that had them on just 20 seats (out of the 150 seat parliament), 4 behind the ruling VVD, and equal with the fanatically pro-EU D66.

    While this may be an outlier, almost all the polls have the PVV down sharply from the beginning of the year. Below are the latest scores (by pollster) compared to where they had the party two months ago:

                    Now     End Dec Change
    Ipsos           27      29      -2
    I&O             20      33      -13
    De Stemming     26      29      -3
    TNS Nipo        27      36      -9
    Peil            30      35      -5
    Peil has a new poll out tomorrow; it will be interesting to see if it shows a similar trend.
    As far as I can see it all the latest Dutch polls bar I&O still have the PVV projected to win most seats
    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Dutch_general_election,_2017
    They're about 9 seats down from their peak polling, and it's not the conservative VVD that has benefited but the pro-EU D66 and the Greens and Party of the Animals(which is doing really well for a nice party - projected up to 5 seats). Lots of publicity for Wilders today so we'll see what happpens
    From peak polling but they are not that far off from where they were in most polls last year, they may have lost a little to the VVD as it has ramped up anti immigration rhetoric too and the VVD has in turn lost a little to D66 because of that (the Dutch Labour Party is also well down on the last election which is why the Greens are up).
    The average PVV score in all the polls in 2016 was 32 seats out of 150, with their highest score (from Peil) being 42. The average is now about 26-27 seats, so they've lost around a fifth of their support.

    Enough to push them into second (or worse)? Probably not. But enough to mean that their ability to act as kingmaker or demand that Wilders ends up PM is pretty dented.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 130,244
    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    I don't know if anyone's mentioned this before, but Geert Wilder's PVV has fallen back quite dramatically in the Netherlands. I&O Research had a poll out this week that had them on just 20 seats (out of the 150 seat parliament), 4 behind the ruling VVD, and equal with the fanatically pro-EU D66.

    While this may be an outlier, almost all the polls have the PVV down sharply from the beginning of the year. Below are the latest scores (by pollster) compared to where they had the party two months ago:

                    Now     End Dec Change
    Ipsos           27      29      -2
    I&O             20      33      -13
    De Stemming     26      29      -3
    TNS Nipo        27      36      -9
    Peil            30      35      -5
    Peil has a new poll out tomorrow; it will be interesting to see if it shows a similar trend.
    As far as I can see it all the latest Dutch polls bar I&O still have the PVV projected to win most seats
    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Dutch_general_election,_2017
    They do. My point is solely that if you drift back three or six months, most pollsters had them winning between 30 and 35 seats in parliament. And now only one has them in the 30s, and that may well change when they release their poll tomorrow.
    If you go back to last October and November plenty of polls had the VVD ahead and indeed I&O on November 3rd had the PVV on 21 seats (they are now down 1 from that) and the VVD on 28 (they are now down 4 on that). The biggest gainers since then have not been the VVD but D66 who are up 4 and the Greens who are up 5

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Dutch_general_election,_2017
    I don't disgree.

    Here's a nice chart from that link which shows the PVV has come off its recent highs, but it above its November lows, mostly to the benefit of the pro-EU D66, the Greens, the CDA and 50+.

    image
    Agreed
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,537
    I was amused a few years ago (in a sick way) when people tried to establish a Paedophile Party in Holland.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 130,244
    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    NickPalmer said:

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    I don't know if anyone's mentioned this before, but Geert Wilder's PVV has fallen back quite dramatically in the Netherlands. I&O Research had a poll out this week that had them on just 20 seats (out of the 150 seat parliament), 4 behind the ruling VVD, and equal with the fanatically pro-EU D66.

    While this may be an outlier, almost all the polls have the PVV down sharply from the beginning of the year. Below are the latest scores (by pollster) compared to where they had the party two months ago:

                    Now     End Dec Change
    Ipsos           27      29      -2
    I&O             20      33      -13
    De Stemming     26      29      -3
    TNS Nipo        27      36      -9
    Peil            30      35      -5
    Peil has a new poll out tomorrow; it will be interesting to see if it shows a similar trend.
    As far as I can see it all the latest Dutch polls bar I&O still have the PVV projected to win most seats
    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Dutch_general_election,_2017
    They're about 9 seats down from their peak polling, and it's not the conservative VVD that has benefited but the pro-EU D66 and the Greens and Party of the Animals(which is doing really well for a nice party - projected up to 5 seats). Lots of publicity for Wilders today so we'll see what happpens
    From peak polling but they are not that far off from where they were in most polls last year, they may have lost a little to the VVD as it has ramped up anti immigration rhetoric too and the VVD has in turn lost a little to D66 because of that (the Dutch Labour Party is also well down on the last election which is why the Greens are up).
    The average PVV score in all the polls in 2016 was 32 seats out of 150, with their highest score (from Peil) being 42. The average is now about 26-27 seats, so they've lost around a fifth of their support.

    Enough to push them into second (or worse)? Probably not. But enough to mean that their ability to act as kingmaker or demand that Wilders ends up PM is pretty dented.
    Until September 2015 virtually no poll had the PVV over 30 and Peil still has them on 30, of the other pollsters Ipsos has them on 27 (and that was taken after I&O put them on 20), De Stemming has them on 26 and TNS NIPO on 27 so at the moment they are still likely, albeit not certain, to come first. Wilders will certainly try and become PM in such circumstances although he is unlikely to get enough support from any of the other major parties so Rutte will likely stay in the role, with the Dutch Labour Party (his present coalition partner) set to lose 2/3 of its seats he may even end up having to rely on Wilders for a majority as he did in his first government
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,891
    When's the Dutch vote? And Germany's?

    I can remember the French because their rounds are either side of the Russian Grand Prix.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 61,392
    Sean_F said:

    I was amused a few years ago (in a sick way) when people tried to establish a Paedophile Party in Holland.

    I think that's a great idea. It would save the authorities a massive amount of trouble.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    Sean_F said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    rcs1000 said:

    I don't know if anyone's mentioned this before, but Geert Wilder's PVV has fallen back quite dramatically in the Netherlands. I&O Research had a poll out this week that had them on just 20 seats (out of the 150 seat parliament), 4 behind the ruling VVD, and equal with the fanatically pro-EU D66.

    While this may be an outlier, almost all the polls have the PVV down sharply from the beginning of the year. Below are the latest scores (by pollster) compared to where they had the party two months ago:

                    Now     End Dec Change
    Ipsos           27      29      -2
    I&O             20      33      -13
    De Stemming     26      29      -3
    TNS Nipo        27      36      -9
    Peil            30      35      -5
    The Trump effect?

    The VVD are trying hard to win PVV voters.

    It's the association with Trump, rather than the policies.

  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,537
    rcs1000 said:

    Sean_F said:

    I was amused a few years ago (in a sick way) when people tried to establish a Paedophile Party in Holland.

    I think that's a great idea. It would save the authorities a massive amount of trouble.
    If you have a party for animals, a party for pensioners, a party for Calvinists, why not a party for paedos?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 130,244
    SouthamObserver said:

    Sean_F said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    rcs1000 said:

    I don't know if anyone's mentioned this before, but Geert Wilder's PVV has fallen back quite dramatically in the Netherlands. I&O Research had a poll out this week that had them on just 20 seats (out of the 150 seat parliament), 4 behind the ruling VVD, and equal with the fanatically pro-EU D66.

    While this may be an outlier, almost all the polls have the PVV down sharply from the beginning of the year. Below are the latest scores (by pollster) compared to where they had the party two months ago:

                    Now     End Dec Change
    Ipsos           27      29      -2
    I&O             20      33      -13
    De Stemming     26      29      -3
    TNS Nipo        27      36      -9
    Peil            30      35      -5
    The Trump effect?

    The VVD are trying hard to win PVV voters.

    It's the association with Trump, rather than the policies.

    Yet the PVV still lead in all but 1 poll
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,891
    Mr. Observer, probably won't help Le Pen, either.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 130,244
    Sean_F said:

    I was amused a few years ago (in a sick way) when people tried to establish a Paedophile Party in Holland.

    Theoretically I suppose you could even have a Serial Killers Party!
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,455
    Without paying for the API, can I get Betfair email alerts on matched bets?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 130,244
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Observer, probably won't help Le Pen, either.

    Le Pen now has a 7% lead in the latest French poll
    http://cdn3-new-parismatch.ladmedia.fr/var/ifop/17-02-2017.pdf
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 61,392
    Morris_Dancer said:

    When's the Dutch vote? And Germany's?

    I can remember the French because their rounds are either side of the Russian Grand Prix.

    The Dutch election is on 15 March. I'm hoping for about five parties to be in the 15 to 25 seat range, ideally with two or three all on exactly the same number of seats.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,891
    edited February 2017
    Mr. 1000, just over a week before Australia... cheers.

    Edited extra bit: good luck with your bets.

    Mr. HYUFD, that may be so, but it's the second round that'll decide things (seems unlikely anyone could get 50%+ in the first round).

    Mr. HYUFD (2), not to be confused with the shipwrights' Serial Keelers, or breakfast club Cereal Killers parties.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,455
    HYUFD said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Observer, probably won't help Le Pen, either.

    Le Pen now has a 7% lead in the latest French poll
    http://cdn3-new-parismatch.ladmedia.fr/var/ifop/17-02-2017.pdf
    Forget about the lead, concentrate on the % which is not moving forward.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 130,244
    edited February 2017
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. 1000, just over a week before Australia... cheers.

    Edited extra bit: good luck with your bets.

    Mr. HYUFD, that may be so, but it's the second round that'll decide things (seems unlikely anyone could get 50%+ in the first round).

    Mr. HYUFD (2), not to be confused with the shipwrights' Serial Keelers, or breakfast club Cereal Killers parties.

    Of course but 26% in the first round would be by far the best FN performance in a French presidential election ever, if Fillon scrapes through to face her (he is presently tied with Macron) the hard left may even vote for Le Pen especially if he faces yet more scandals

    Yes plenty of parties for oddballs!
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 61,392
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. 1000, just over a week before Australia... cheers.

    Edited extra bit: good luck with your bets.

    Mr. HYUFD, that may be so, but it's the second round that'll decide things (seems unlikely anyone could get 50%+ in the first round).

    Mr. HYUFD (2), not to be confused with the shipwrights' Serial Keelers, or breakfast club Cereal Killers parties.

    Le Pen has managed to really close the gap on Fillon in the second round, largely as left wing voters seem increasingly unwilling to vote for him.

    It looks quite likely Fillon edges out Macron in the first round, which could make for an exciting second round. (Albeit, I suspect he'll still win by a comfortable double digit margin on the day.)
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,537
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. 1000, just over a week before Australia... cheers.

    Edited extra bit: good luck with your bets.

    Mr. HYUFD, that may be so, but it's the second round that'll decide things (seems unlikely anyone could get 50%+ in the first round).

    Mr. HYUFD (2), not to be confused with the shipwrights' Serial Keelers, or breakfast club Cereal Killers parties.

    Le Pen's range in Round 2 has moved from 35-40% to 37-44%, but she's still short.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,891
    Mr. 1000, we must hope Macron wins.

    I don't think I've ever had a winning bet on a presidential, prime ministerial *or* party leader market.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,455
    rcs1000 said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. 1000, just over a week before Australia... cheers.

    Edited extra bit: good luck with your bets.

    Mr. HYUFD, that may be so, but it's the second round that'll decide things (seems unlikely anyone could get 50%+ in the first round).

    Mr. HYUFD (2), not to be confused with the shipwrights' Serial Keelers, or breakfast club Cereal Killers parties.

    Le Pen has managed to really close the gap on Fillon in the second round, largely as left wing voters seem increasingly unwilling to vote for him.

    It looks quite likely Fillon edges out Macron in the first round, which could make for an exciting second round. (Albeit, I suspect he'll still win by a comfortable double digit margin on the day.)
    All those left-wingers will remember they prefer Fillon the day after he comes second.

    Chirac outperformed the polls for example.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 67,930
    rcs1000 said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. 1000, just over a week before Australia... cheers.

    Edited extra bit: good luck with your bets.

    Mr. HYUFD, that may be so, but it's the second round that'll decide things (seems unlikely anyone could get 50%+ in the first round).

    Mr. HYUFD (2), not to be confused with the shipwrights' Serial Keelers, or breakfast club Cereal Killers parties.

    Le Pen has managed to really close the gap on Fillon in the second round, largely as left wing voters seem increasingly unwilling to vote for him.

    It looks quite likely Fillon edges out Macron in the first round, which could make for an exciting second round. (Albeit, I suspect he'll still win by a comfortable double digit margin on the day.)
    Not convinced myself. Le Pen on the day. Another populist shock is coming.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 61,392
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. 1000, we must hope Macron wins.

    I don't think I've ever had a winning bet on a presidential, prime ministerial *or* party leader market.

    Le Pen's prescription for France (with the exception of leaving the Euro) would be disastrous: more regulation of business, tariffs on imports, an earlier retirement age, and more generous state funded pensions. It's like Greece without the Euro.

    Those who wish Le Pen to win to hasten the end of the EU miss the fact that her economic policies would be disastrous for the French economy.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 130,244
    edited February 2017
    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    HYUFD said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Observer, probably won't help Le Pen, either.

    Le Pen now has a 7% lead in the latest French poll
    http://cdn3-new-parismatch.ladmedia.fr/var/ifop/17-02-2017.pdf
    Forget about the lead, concentrate on the % which is not moving forward.
    Le Pen is now on 44% against Fillon in the run-off in that same poll, that is just 1% less than Trump got last November in the US.
    http://cdn3-new-parismatch.ladmedia.fr/var/ifop/17-02-2017.pdf
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,537
    rcs1000 said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. 1000, just over a week before Australia... cheers.

    Edited extra bit: good luck with your bets.

    Mr. HYUFD, that may be so, but it's the second round that'll decide things (seems unlikely anyone could get 50%+ in the first round).

    Mr. HYUFD (2), not to be confused with the shipwrights' Serial Keelers, or breakfast club Cereal Killers parties.

    Le Pen has managed to really close the gap on Fillon in the second round, largely as left wing voters seem increasingly unwilling to vote for him.

    It looks quite likely Fillon edges out Macron in the first round, which could make for an exciting second round. (Albeit, I suspect he'll still win by a comfortable double digit margin on the day.)
    It shows how things have shifted, that Chirac defeated Le Pen Pere 82-18%, and Fillon would win something like 57-43%.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 61,392
    rottenborough said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. 1000, just over a week before Australia... cheers.

    Edited extra bit: good luck with your bets.

    Mr. HYUFD, that may be so, but it's the second round that'll decide things (seems unlikely anyone could get 50%+ in the first round).

    Mr. HYUFD (2), not to be confused with the shipwrights' Serial Keelers, or breakfast club Cereal Killers parties.

    Le Pen has managed to really close the gap on Fillon in the second round, largely as left wing voters seem increasingly unwilling to vote for him.

    It looks quite likely Fillon edges out Macron in the first round, which could make for an exciting second round. (Albeit, I suspect he'll still win by a comfortable double digit margin on the day.)
    Not convinced myself. Le Pen on the day. Another populist shock is coming.
    I disagree, largely because the FN is polling well below its 2015 levels, when it manifestly failed to make any impact in the Departmental or Provincial elections.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    Has anybody got a link to the ICM poll being reported by Guido?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 61,392
    HYUFD said:

    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    HYUFD said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Observer, probably won't help Le Pen, either.

    Le Pen now has a 7% lead in the latest French poll
    http://cdn3-new-parismatch.ladmedia.fr/var/ifop/17-02-2017.pdf
    Forget about the lead, concentrate on the % which is not moving forward.
    Le Pen is now on 44% against Fillon in the run-off in that same poll, that is just 1% less than Trump got last November in the US.
    http://cdn3-new-parismatch.ladmedia.fr/var/ifop/17-02-2017.pdf
    Of course, Hillary won the popular vote by almost 3% :smile:
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 67,930
    rcs1000 said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. 1000, we must hope Macron wins.

    I don't think I've ever had a winning bet on a presidential, prime ministerial *or* party leader market.

    Le Pen's prescription for France (with the exception of leaving the Euro) would be disastrous: more regulation of business, tariffs on imports, an earlier retirement age, and more generous state funded pensions. It's like Greece without the Euro.

    Those who wish Le Pen to win to hasten the end of the EU miss the fact that her economic policies would be disastrous for the French economy.
    It would be an economic catastrophe and drag us down in the chaos just as we Brexit.

    Deeply worrying times.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 130,244
    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. 1000, just over a week before Australia... cheers.

    Edited extra bit: good luck with your bets.

    Mr. HYUFD, that may be so, but it's the second round that'll decide things (seems unlikely anyone could get 50%+ in the first round).

    Mr. HYUFD (2), not to be confused with the shipwrights' Serial Keelers, or breakfast club Cereal Killers parties.

    Le Pen has managed to really close the gap on Fillon in the second round, largely as left wing voters seem increasingly unwilling to vote for him.

    It looks quite likely Fillon edges out Macron in the first round, which could make for an exciting second round. (Albeit, I suspect he'll still win by a comfortable double digit margin on the day.)
    All those left-wingers will remember they prefer Fillon the day after he comes second.

    Chirac outperformed the polls for example.
    Chirac was not an economic Thatcherite like Fillon
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    GeoffM said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    https://order-order.com/2017/02/17/68-want-government-get-brexit/

    Only 15% think the government should not implement Brexit.

    Should this merit its own thread?

    It may well merit a thread but it won't get one here.
    Have you got a link to the poll - can't see it on the ICM website.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    HYUFD said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    Sean_F said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    rcs1000 said:

    I don't know if anyone's mentioned this before, but Geert Wilder's PVV has fallen back quite dramatically in the Netherlands. I&O Research had a poll out this week that had them on just 20 seats (out of the 150 seat parliament), 4 behind the ruling VVD, and equal with the fanatically pro-EU D66.

    While this may be an outlier, almost all the polls have the PVV down sharply from the beginning of the year. Below are the latest scores (by pollster) compared to where they had the party two months ago:

                    Now     End Dec Change
    Ipsos           27      29      -2
    I&O             20      33      -13
    De Stemming     26      29      -3
    TNS Nipo        27      36      -9
    Peil            30      35      -5
    The Trump effect?

    The VVD are trying hard to win PVV voters.

    It's the association with Trump, rather than the policies.

    Yet the PVV still lead in all but 1 poll

    There will be a minority in all countries in the EU that think Trump is great. There will be more in every European country that think he is appalling. This will not help parties and leaders associated with Trump to gain power.

  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,868
    GeoffM said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    https://order-order.com/2017/02/17/68-want-government-get-brexit/

    Only 15% think the government should not implement Brexit.

    Should this merit its own thread?

    It may well merit a thread but it won't get one here.
    We live under the tyranny of the 15%....
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 61,392
    Sean_F said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. 1000, just over a week before Australia... cheers.

    Edited extra bit: good luck with your bets.

    Mr. HYUFD, that may be so, but it's the second round that'll decide things (seems unlikely anyone could get 50%+ in the first round).

    Mr. HYUFD (2), not to be confused with the shipwrights' Serial Keelers, or breakfast club Cereal Killers parties.

    Le Pen has managed to really close the gap on Fillon in the second round, largely as left wing voters seem increasingly unwilling to vote for him.

    It looks quite likely Fillon edges out Macron in the first round, which could make for an exciting second round. (Albeit, I suspect he'll still win by a comfortable double digit margin on the day.)
    It shows how things have shifted, that Chirac defeated Le Pen Pere 82-18%, and Fillon would win something like 57-43%.
    I think there are three factors behind that:

    1. The FN is much more centrist than it was, and has (mostly) ditched the whole antisemitism thing.
    2. France is desparate for change, it just hasn't worked out how to marry its economic system with the challenges of globalisation (and promising it can be just how it used to be if you just got rid of the immigrants, charged a tariff on imports and paid more generous pensions sound pretty appealing)
    3. The threat of Islamic terrorism appears stronger than it was
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 130,244
    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    HYUFD said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Observer, probably won't help Le Pen, either.

    Le Pen now has a 7% lead in the latest French poll
    http://cdn3-new-parismatch.ladmedia.fr/var/ifop/17-02-2017.pdf
    Forget about the lead, concentrate on the % which is not moving forward.
    Le Pen is now on 44% against Fillon in the run-off in that same poll, that is just 1% less than Trump got last November in the US.
    http://cdn3-new-parismatch.ladmedia.fr/var/ifop/17-02-2017.pdf
    Of course, Hillary won the popular vote by almost 3% :smile:
    True but it would certainly give the French establishment the jitters if it was as close as that
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 27,216
    rcs1000 said:

    Sean_F said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. 1000, just over a week before Australia... cheers.

    Edited extra bit: good luck with your bets.

    Mr. HYUFD, that may be so, but it's the second round that'll decide things (seems unlikely anyone could get 50%+ in the first round).

    Mr. HYUFD (2), not to be confused with the shipwrights' Serial Keelers, or breakfast club Cereal Killers parties.

    Le Pen has managed to really close the gap on Fillon in the second round, largely as left wing voters seem increasingly unwilling to vote for him.

    It looks quite likely Fillon edges out Macron in the first round, which could make for an exciting second round. (Albeit, I suspect he'll still win by a comfortable double digit margin on the day.)
    It shows how things have shifted, that Chirac defeated Le Pen Pere 82-18%, and Fillon would win something like 57-43%.
    I think there are three factors behind that:

    1. The FN is much more centrist than it was, and has (mostly) ditched the whole antisemitism thing.
    2. France is desparate for change, it just hasn't worked out how to marry its economic system with the challenges of globalisation (and promising it can be just how it used to be if you just got rid of the immigrants, charged a tariff on imports and paid more generous pensions sound pretty appealing)
    3. The threat of Islamic terrorism appears is stronger than it was
    Fixed that for you.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 130,244
    rcs1000 said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. 1000, we must hope Macron wins.

    I don't think I've ever had a winning bet on a presidential, prime ministerial *or* party leader market.

    Le Pen's prescription for France (with the exception of leaving the Euro) would be disastrous: more regulation of business, tariffs on imports, an earlier retirement age, and more generous state funded pensions. It's like Greece without the Euro.

    Those who wish Le Pen to win to hasten the end of the EU miss the fact that her economic policies would be disastrous for the French economy.
    With Trump and Brexit it would certainly signal a new era of protectionism, though Fillon of course would shift France in a much more business friendly direction
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 61,392
    tlg86 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sean_F said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. 1000, just over a week before Australia... cheers.

    Edited extra bit: good luck with your bets.

    Mr. HYUFD, that may be so, but it's the second round that'll decide things (seems unlikely anyone could get 50%+ in the first round).

    Mr. HYUFD (2), not to be confused with the shipwrights' Serial Keelers, or breakfast club Cereal Killers parties.

    Le Pen has managed to really close the gap on Fillon in the second round, largely as left wing voters seem increasingly unwilling to vote for him.

    It looks quite likely Fillon edges out Macron in the first round, which could make for an exciting second round. (Albeit, I suspect he'll still win by a comfortable double digit margin on the day.)
    It shows how things have shifted, that Chirac defeated Le Pen Pere 82-18%, and Fillon would win something like 57-43%.
    I think there are three factors behind that:

    1. The FN is much more centrist than it was, and has (mostly) ditched the whole antisemitism thing.
    2. France is desparate for change, it just hasn't worked out how to marry its economic system with the challenges of globalisation (and promising it can be just how it used to be if you just got rid of the immigrants, charged a tariff on imports and paid more generous pensions sound pretty appealing)
    3. The threat of Islamic terrorism appears is stronger than it was
    Fixed that for you.
    It's still a negligible threat. You are at least 100x more likely to die in a road accident, and we don't divert massive resources to cutting the level of road deaths down.
  • AlsoIndigoAlsoIndigo Posts: 1,852
    MikeSmithson said:

    GeoffM said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    https://order-order.com/2017/02/17/68-want-government-get-brexit/

    Only 15% think the government should not implement Brexit.

    Should this merit its own thread?

    It may well merit a thread but it won't get one here.
    Have you got a link to the poll - can't see it on the ICM website.
    It was done for Change Britain, the results are linked at the bottom of this page

    https://www.changebritain.org/dominic-raab-mp-blair-lost-touch-british-people/
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 61,392
    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. 1000, we must hope Macron wins.

    I don't think I've ever had a winning bet on a presidential, prime ministerial *or* party leader market.

    Le Pen's prescription for France (with the exception of leaving the Euro) would be disastrous: more regulation of business, tariffs on imports, an earlier retirement age, and more generous state funded pensions. It's like Greece without the Euro.

    Those who wish Le Pen to win to hasten the end of the EU miss the fact that her economic policies would be disastrous for the French economy.
    With Trump and Brexit it would certainly signal a new era of protectionism, though Fillon of course would shift France in a much more business friendly direction
    Protectionism would be a disaster for Britain and the World. We went there in the 1930s, and I sincerely hope we don't go there again.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 130,244
    SouthamObserver said:

    HYUFD said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    Sean_F said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    rcs1000 said:

    I don't know if anyone's mentioned this before, but Geert Wilder's PVV has fallen back quite dramatically in the Netherlands. I&O Research had a poll out this week that had them on just 20 seats (out of the 150 seat parliament), 4 behind the ruling VVD, and equal with the fanatically pro-EU D66.

    While this may be an outlier, almost all the polls have the PVV down sharply from the beginning of the year. Below are the latest scores (by pollster) compared to where they had the party two months ago:

                    Now     End Dec Change
    Ipsos           27      29      -2
    I&O             20      33      -13
    De Stemming     26      29      -3
    TNS Nipo        27      36      -9
    Peil            30      35      -5
    The Trump effect?

    The VVD are trying hard to win PVV voters.

    It's the association with Trump, rather than the policies.

    Yet the PVV still lead in all but 1 poll

    There will be a minority in all countries in the EU that think Trump is great. There will be more in every European country that think he is appalling. This will not help parties and leaders associated with Trump to gain power.

    Trump is personally not popular in Europe no but the forces which drove Trump and Brexit ie anti immigration and anti globalisation, are the forces driving populism in Europe too
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 67,930
    rcs1000 said:

    Sean_F said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. 1000, just over a week before Australia... cheers.

    Edited extra bit: good luck with your bets.

    Mr. HYUFD, that may be so, but it's the second round that'll decide things (seems unlikely anyone could get 50%+ in the first round).

    Mr. HYUFD (2), not to be confused with the shipwrights' Serial Keelers, or breakfast club Cereal Killers parties.

    Le Pen has managed to really close the gap on Fillon in the second round, largely as left wing voters seem increasingly unwilling to vote for him.

    It looks quite likely Fillon edges out Macron in the first round, which could make for an exciting second round. (Albeit, I suspect he'll still win by a comfortable double digit margin on the day.)
    It shows how things have shifted, that Chirac defeated Le Pen Pere 82-18%, and Fillon would win something like 57-43%.
    I think there are three factors behind that:

    1. The FN is much more centrist than it was, and has (mostly) ditched the whole antisemitism thing.
    2. France is desparate for change, it just hasn't worked out how to marry its economic system with the challenges of globalisation (and promising it can be just how it used to be if you just got rid of the immigrants, charged a tariff on imports and paid more generous pensions sound pretty appealing)
    3. The threat of Islamic terrorism appears stronger than it was
    Plus racial tensions have increased, judging by the riots.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,868
    Can I just say - what a cartoon. The way that Geoffrey is looking down with a withering "WTF are you bleating on about, woman?" is just so well drawn.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 130,244
    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. 1000, we must hope Macron wins.

    I don't think I've ever had a winning bet on a presidential, prime ministerial *or* party leader market.

    Le Pen's prescription for France (with the exception of leaving the Euro) would be disastrous: more regulation of business, tariffs on imports, an earlier retirement age, and more generous state funded pensions. It's like Greece without the Euro.

    Those who wish Le Pen to win to hasten the end of the EU miss the fact that her economic policies would be disastrous for the French economy.
    With Trump and Brexit it would certainly signal a new era of protectionism, though Fillon of course would shift France in a much more business friendly direction
    Protectionism would be a disaster for Britain and the World. We went there in the 1930s, and I sincerely hope we don't go there again.
    I hope so too but it is by no means certain we are going to avoid it
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 67,930
    rcs1000 said:

    rottenborough said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. 1000, just over a week before Australia... cheers.

    Edited extra bit: good luck with your bets.

    Mr. HYUFD, that may be so, but it's the second round that'll decide things (seems unlikely anyone could get 50%+ in the first round).

    Mr. HYUFD (2), not to be confused with the shipwrights' Serial Keelers, or breakfast club Cereal Killers parties.

    Le Pen has managed to really close the gap on Fillon in the second round, largely as left wing voters seem increasingly unwilling to vote for him.

    It looks quite likely Fillon edges out Macron in the first round, which could make for an exciting second round. (Albeit, I suspect he'll still win by a comfortable double digit margin on the day.)
    Not convinced myself. Le Pen on the day. Another populist shock is coming.
    I disagree, largely because the FN is polling well below its 2015 levels, when it manifestly failed to make any impact in the Departmental or Provincial elections.
    Oh well, we'll know soon enough. I'm green on the whole thing, so I can relax (unless Melanchon does a black swan on me).
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