politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Will Osborne’s Help To Buy help buy votes?
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Will Osborne’s Help To Buy help buy votes?
George Osborne is said to have quipped at a Cabinet meeting earlier this year ‘hopefully we will get a little housing boom and everyone will be happy as property values go up.’ Like Gordon Brown before him, Osborne is political to his fingertips and his dual role as general election co-ordinator explicitly reflected that.
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Pricehound is a disgrace.0
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Sub-editor might be doing a Guardian - should it not be 'alleged' quip or 'reported' quip?0
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Hat-trick for the scrapman.0
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"The most moronic and damaging policy anyone could've come up with."tim said:The most moronic and damaging policy anyone could've come up with.
Stoking up demand when in 2012/3 house completions were at their lowest in peacetime since the twenties is insane.
And the polling suggests some dangers for the Tories
58% of the British public think the Help to Buy scheme risks another housing bubble
http://yougov.co.uk/news/2013/10/07/help-buy-stokes-fears-over-new-housing-bubble/
And generationally it deserves to damage the Tories among those they dishonestly claim will benefit (the beneficiaries will be propertied baby boomers)
""Why are houses too expensive in the UK? Too much debt. So what is George Osborne's solution for first-time buyers unable to afford housing? Why, arrange for a government-guaranteed scheme to burden our young people with even more debt! Why don't we call this policy by the name it really is, namely the indentured servitude of our young people.
"I believe it truly is a moronic policy that stands head and shoulders above most of the stupid economic policies I have seen implemented during my 30 years in this business. It ranks above some of Alan Greenspan's very worst blunders."
http://www.theguardian.com/business/2013/jun/04/george-osborne-help-to-buy-moronic
Nope, that was Pathfinder. Labour's answer to the housing problem, now quietly buried and ignored by everyone in the party.0 -
Henry, I'm shocked, I tell you shocked, that you didn't refer to the most recent polling evidence:
Best for "helping people onto the housing ladder":
Con: 35
Lab: 24
http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/pmqstq2ke0/YouGov_Times_Results_131009.pdf
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FPT
Mr D, I think you'd confused PB with the UKBA Screening Analyst online recruitment process.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Me, a discussion about the difficulty of a good rear end in F1 would prove more stimulating. We could even delve into the challenges of differential front end grip, and the problems of slippery rubber bursting this season.
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Mr. Polruan, how dare you question my expertise in slippery wet rubber and the problem of it bursting?!
FPT: Writing question: does 'angry angiosperms' sound terrible? I'm going to cut or replace a line about nasty plants. I was after 'killer [something]', but angiosperms sounds (to me, anyway) more amusing.
On-topic: I suspect it will be an electoral boost to the blues.0 -
"The Housing Market Renewal Programme is expected to last from 10 to 15 years and, to March 2008, has cost £1.2 billion, with a further £1 billion committed up to 2011.JosiasJessop said:
"The most moronic and damaging policy anyone could've come up with."tim said:The most moronic and damaging policy anyone could've come up with.
Stoking up demand when in 2012/3 house completions were at their lowest in peacetime since the twenties is insane.
And the polling suggests some dangers for the Tories
58% of the British public think the Help to Buy scheme risks another housing bubble
http://yougov.co.uk/news/2013/10/07/help-buy-stokes-fears-over-new-housing-bubble/
And generationally it deserves to damage the Tories among those they dishonestly claim will benefit (the beneficiaries will be propertied baby boomers)
""Why are houses too expensive in the UK? Too much debt. So what is George Osborne's solution for first-time buyers unable to afford housing? Why, arrange for a government-guaranteed scheme to burden our young people with even more debt! Why don't we call this policy by the name it really is, namely the indentured servitude of our young people.
"I believe it truly is a moronic policy that stands head and shoulders above most of the stupid economic policies I have seen implemented during my 30 years in this business. It ranks above some of Alan Greenspan's very worst blunders."
http://www.theguardian.com/business/2013/jun/04/george-osborne-help-to-buy-moronic
Nope, that was Pathfinder. Labour's answer to the housing problem, now quietly buried and ignored by everyone in the party.
......So far, over 40,000 houses have been refurbished....... However, more homes have been demolished than built and without longer term support, demolition sites, rather than refurbished and improved housing stock, may be the Programme’s legacy."
http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm200708/cmselect/cmpubacc/106/106.pdf
£1.2 billion on demolishing more houses than it built.......
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Housing policy since the 1970s under all governments has been a complete disaster - must rank as one of the worst policy failures in modern political history. It's hard to think of any housing policy pursued by any government in that time that could be said to have had a positive impact on either supply or affordability of housing.0
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As its likely that parents will be the ones helping their children onto the property ladder that's rather good for the tories...tim said:@Carlotta
Looking at your polling evidence there's a Labour lead among the under forties on the question "Best for "helping people onto the housing ladder":" and a massive lead for the Tories among the over 60's.
LOL
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@tim - in the key 'get on the housing ladder' demographic 25-39 its evenly split - but of course, pensioners don't vote, so their opinions don't count.....0
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Talking about government schemes, does anyone have any experience of the Green Deal initiative? My neighbour needs a new boiler, but is a bit reluctant to fork over the 129 quid for the survey.0
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Aren't you glad you bought a pony?tim said:
Six months later.CarlottaVance said:Henry, I'm shocked, I tell you shocked, that you didn't refer to the most recent polling evidence:
Best for "helping people onto the housing ladder":
Con: 35
Lab: 24
http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/pmqstq2ke0/YouGov_Times_Results_131009.pdf
"Mr Osborne, the price of ponies has gone up by £200"
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For boilers, it's pretty much a no-brainer. For the rest, it's a complete fuck up. I had a report done late Spring, and there are still no companies who are able to pull together the financing to implement the recommendations of the report. It's not particularly complicated, basically solid wall insulation stuff requiring a mixture of ECO funding and green deal loans. Last I heard (a few weeks ago) the number of green deal loan funded projects that had been agreed in principle was still in single figures.TwistedFireStopper said:Talking about government schemes, does anyone have any experience of the Green Deal initiative? My neighbour needs a new boiler, but is a bit reluctant to fork over the 129 quid for the survey.
The boiler replacement programmes are low hanging fruit for the utility companies, so they're throwing money at it - worth taking while available. For the rest of it, I'd say don't waste your money unless you've already got a green deal provider lined up who confirms they can fund the expected works.0 -
Ed Milliband calls the Royal Mail privatisation a "fire sale".0
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Opening your borders by the last labour government wouldn't have help matters and not keeping up with supply.anothernick said:Housing policy since the 1970s under all governments has been a complete disaster - must rank as one of the worst policy failures in modern political history. It's hard to think of any housing policy pursued by any government in that time that could be said to have had a positive impact on either supply or affordability of housing.
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Not really. It's now going to be harder to upgrade to a horse in a few years because the price differential has also increased.CarlottaVance said:
Aren't you glad you bought a pony?tim said:
Six months later.CarlottaVance said:Henry, I'm shocked, I tell you shocked, that you didn't refer to the most recent polling evidence:
Best for "helping people onto the housing ladder":
Con: 35
Lab: 24
http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/pmqstq2ke0/YouGov_Times_Results_131009.pdf
"Mr Osborne, the price of ponies has gone up by £200"
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The most damaging part of the policy is the precedent it sets. BoE independence was supposed to stop chancellors engaging in pre-election interest rate manipulation. Here it comes back in a much more sinister form. Once H2B(ii) is established as a politically useful tool in the box, no government (Labour/Tory/Coalition) will want to give it up.0
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Another hostage to fortune if the share price falls below 330p.....bod on WATO was saying that on a p/e basis the price should be 330-350 - and the current price is grossly inflated by a shortage of shares. Peston was arguing that Fallon/Cable think it will be back around 330 by Christmas.....TwistedFireStopper said:Ed Milliband calls the Royal Mail privatisation a "fire sale".
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For the first time in years, my postie had his hair brushed and his shirt tucked in. He had a spring in his step and hailed me from afar with a polite "good morning".
What a difference the private sector makes.
tim seems to think the Royal Mail privatisation is just about the money.
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Dare I say it a reasonably balanced piece by Henry G Manson
However this phrase represents all that is wrong with Uk politics.
" by analysts, journalists, think tanks and groups ranging from Shelter to the Institute of Directors"
The more this group are ignored the better...0 -
Unsurprisingly it seems a lot of Owen Jones' followers are coming to the rescue of a poor old bird watcher....0
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"15,000 Royal Mail employees, almost a tenth of the workforce, have paid £52m to buy extra Royal Mail shares"0
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Mr. T, it's for a comedy, so comic intent is definitely covered. I've gone for 'grisly garden' though, on the basis that it's usually better not to ask readers to check dictionaries (although that's very easy on an e-reader).0
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AveryLP said:
For the first time in years, my postie had his hair brushed and his shirt tucked in. He had a spring in his step and hailed me from afar with a polite "good morning".
What a difference the private sector makes.
tim seems to think the Royal Mail privatisation is just about the money.
I asked mine for £20 - and said he'd robbed me blind and was a capitalist pig-dog.0 -
also the right to buy scheme shouldn't be ignored in this discussion..
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2453431/More-10-000-tenants-purchased-properties-Right-Buy-scheme-year.html
10th Oct
"Margaret Thatcher's flagship Right to Buy scheme has been given a boost with the number of people buying their council houses doubling in a year.
Ten thousand tenants have purchased their properties since last year, the highest level since before the recession, after the government increased the discounts available."0 -
Twitter and irony...not mixing.Scrapheap_as_was said:Unsurprisingly it seems a lot of Owen Jones' followers are coming to the rescue of a poor old bird watcher....
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He is now a hostage to the share price - he really doesn't understand economics does he - son of Brown cap fits.TwistedFireStopper said:Ed Milliband calls the Royal Mail privatisation a "fire sale".
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The Channel grows ever wider:
"France’s constitutional council has upheld a law banning hydraulic fracturing, or fracking, backing the socialist government’s stance against exploiting the country’s shale energy deposits that industry has urged it to develop.
Business leaders, concerned by high energy prices in Europe, have been frustrated by the refusal on environmental grounds by successive French governments to allow fracking despite estimates that France has among the biggest potential reserves of shale oil and gas in the EU."
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/34b5dad6-3261-11e3-b3a7-00144feab7de.html#ixzz2hQ1CEfi2
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Problem for Owen, is they may also start to think he's a spoof too.... like the rest of us...Slackbladder said:
Twitter and irony...not mixing.Scrapheap_as_was said:Unsurprisingly it seems a lot of Owen Jones' followers are coming to the rescue of a poor old bird watcher....
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It's hard to see this doing the Tories any harm in the polling, at least this side of a general election.
The real solution to the housing shortage is to relax planning regulation in areas where we need more housing. How much architectural damage would be done if we left east London, for example, to its own devices on this front?0 -
For JohnO (FPT):-
"I trust you are going to fund the next pb drinks event. Least you can bloody do. Eight short years ago you were a penniless, struggling, (on benefits IIRC), semi-starving, shrouded in fear and terror by the 7/7/05 bombings. See, I can recall your virginal posts.
So give something back to the folks who never lost faith. It's called the Big Society. Bottoms up."
No, no. Sean T should take us all on a tour of his favourite bits of Italy: the Tyrol, Naples and Sicily by my reckoning (unless I've lost track) and show us all the fine wines, foods and luxury hotels he's been telling us about.
As a native Italian speaker I shall selflessly volunteer for interpreting services.
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Ah remember the days when you used to regurgitate polling that suggested group X and Y didn't think that austerity could reduce the deficit or produce growth ?tim said:
62% of over 60's think Help To Buy risks another housing bubble.Slackbladder said:
As its likely that parents will be the ones helping their children onto the property ladder that's rather good for the tories...tim said:@Carlotta
Looking at your polling evidence there's a Labour lead among the under forties on the question "Best for "helping people onto the housing ladder":" and a massive lead for the Tories among the over 60's.
LOL
Which is exactly what it's supposed to do so you could also regard that as good for the Tories too if you like.
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He can point out Polly Toynbee's villa for us..Cyclefree said:For JohnO (FPT):-
"I trust you are going to fund the next pb drinks event. Least you can bloody do. Eight short years ago you were a penniless, struggling, (on benefits IIRC), semi-starving, shrouded in fear and terror by the 7/7/05 bombings. See, I can recall your virginal posts.
So give something back to the folks who never lost faith. It's called the Big Society. Bottoms up."
No, no. Sean T should take us all on a tour of his favourite bits of Italy: the Tyrol, Naples and Sicily by my reckoning (unless I've lost track) and show us all the fine wines, foods and luxury hotels he's been telling us about.
As a native Italian speaker I shall selflessly volunteer for interpreting services.0 -
tim wants to shape policy based on one fat union baron ?
Mental.0 -
Did you know that 73% of over 60s [no apostrophe here tim] think that crossing a major public road risks being hit by traffic?tim said:
62% of over 60's think Help To Buy risks another housing bubble.Slackbladder said:
As its likely that parents will be the ones helping their children onto the property ladder that's rather good for the tories...tim said:@Carlotta
Looking at your polling evidence there's a Labour lead among the under forties on the question "Best for "helping people onto the housing ladder":" and a massive lead for the Tories among the over 60's.
LOL
Which is exactly what it's supposed to do so you could also regard that as good for the Tories too if you like.
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@tim - Pathfinder - £1.2 billion to refurbish 40,000 homes, demolish 10,000 homes and build 1,000 homes......Labour value for money, eh?
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@TFS
It's not a bad scheme I don't think, if you need your boiler replacing but don't have the capital. The key flaw in the scheme is indeed the fact that you have to pay the money for the survey - and that the surveyors usually work for companies that have an interest in you getting the work done.0 -
ROFL - over 60s much more likely to vote. This has to be the greatest scheme ever judging by the amount of posts someone is throwing at it.tim said:@Carlotta
Looking at your polling evidence there's a Labour lead among the under forties on the question "Best for "helping people onto the housing ladder":" and a massive lead for the Tories among the over 60's.
LOL0 -
Ed Milliband calls the Royal Mail privatisation a "fire sale".
What does that make Gordon's gold sale?0 -
What austerity? Spending has skyrocketed under this government.TGOHF said:
Ah remember the days when you used to regurgitate polling that suggested group X and Y didn't think that austerity could reduce the deficit or produce growth ?tim said:
62% of over 60's think Help To Buy risks another housing bubble.Slackbladder said:
As its likely that parents will be the ones helping their children onto the property ladder that's rather good for the tories...tim said:@Carlotta
Looking at your polling evidence there's a Labour lead among the under forties on the question "Best for "helping people onto the housing ladder":" and a massive lead for the Tories among the over 60's.
LOL
Which is exactly what it's supposed to do so you could also regard that as good for the Tories too if you like.
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LoL. I wanted to ease him gently into his noblesse oblige role.Cyclefree said:For JohnO (FPT):-
"I trust you are going to fund the next pb drinks event. Least you can bloody do. Eight short years ago you were a penniless, struggling, (on benefits IIRC), semi-starving, shrouded in fear and terror by the 7/7/05 bombings. See, I can recall your virginal posts.
So give something back to the folks who never lost faith. It's called the Big Society. Bottoms up."
No, no. Sean T should take us all on a tour of his favourite bits of Italy: the Tyrol, Naples and Sicily by my reckoning (unless I've lost track) and show us all the fine wines, foods and luxury hotels he's been telling us about.
As a native Italian speaker I shall selflessly volunteer for interpreting services.
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Yes - but that would involve visiting the bits of Tuscany largely populated by the Toynbees of this world so best avoided, really.Slackbladder said:
He can point out Polly Toynbee's villa for us..Cyclefree said:For JohnO (FPT):-
"I trust you are going to fund the next pb drinks event. Least you can bloody do. Eight short years ago you were a penniless, struggling, (on benefits IIRC), semi-starving, shrouded in fear and terror by the 7/7/05 bombings. See, I can recall your virginal posts.
So give something back to the folks who never lost faith. It's called the Big Society. Bottoms up."
No, no. Sean T should take us all on a tour of his favourite bits of Italy: the Tyrol, Naples and Sicily by my reckoning (unless I've lost track) and show us all the fine wines, foods and luxury hotels he's been telling us about.
As a native Italian speaker I shall selflessly volunteer for interpreting services.
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And there hasn't been any bubble - hasn't stopped you pontificating on polling on BOTHtim said:
There hasn't been any austerity.TGOHF said:
Ah remember the days when you used to regurgitate polling that suggested group X and Y didn't think that austerity could reduce the deficit or produce growth ?tim said:
62% of over 60's think Help To Buy risks another housing bubble.Slackbladder said:
As its likely that parents will be the ones helping their children onto the property ladder that's rather good for the tories...tim said:@Carlotta
Looking at your polling evidence there's a Labour lead among the under forties on the question "Best for "helping people onto the housing ladder":" and a massive lead for the Tories among the over 60's.
LOL
Which is exactly what it's supposed to do so you could also regard that as good for the Tories too if you like.
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Hang on, I thought the Labour line was that the Royal Mail was a great national asset partly being rapaciously given free to its staff and partly sold off far too cheaply. Now Ed is claiming it's fire-damaged goods having to be sold at virtually nothing to get rid of it.
The message seems rather mixed...0 -
FPT - RodCrosby. Yes, the Tories have nearly 36,000 votes in the three Sefton seats [Sefton Central, Bootle and Southport], and nothing to show for it, being still 8% behind Labour in their nearest target. Labour hold two of the seats with less than 52,000 votes in all three and the Lib Dems the other with 40,000 votes in total not many more than the Tories.
It's a good example of how the Lib Dems have learnt to concentrate their vote to survive with FPTP, and how inefficient distribution of Tory votes really hurts them in FPTP.0 -
So no austerity and no bubble but the common factor is tim whining about polling about both.
What next - whining about polling on unicorns ?0 -
I wonder what other government-run businesses might be available for sale before the next election? Something with a strong public image in a market that the public would love to invest in? Something that will cement the public's idea that the economy is firmly on the mend?
Not so much a black swan event for British politics as a black horse event, I expect.0 -
There's that BBC thingy...antifrank said:I wonder what other government-run businesses might be available for sale before the next election? Something with a strong public image in a market that the public would love to invest in? Something that will cement the public's idea that the economy is firmly on the mend?
Not so much a black swan event for British politics as a black horse event, I expect.0 -
It's the way you tell 'em, tim.tim said:
But you have a point in saying that Osbornes shrieking about the world ending in June 2010 helped destroy business confidence.Neil said:
Those stats also show that it wasnt Osborne's fiscal policies that killed growth as you were claiming for, oh, years.tim said:
Osborne has rebalanced the economy away from investment and trade to private consumption and increased govt spending.
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Osborne and spending: the facts.tim said:
I've been pointing out to you for two years that Osborne is increasing spending, yet it still hasn't sunk in judging by your earlier comment.TGOHF said:So no austerity and no bubble but the common factor is tim whining about polling about both.
What next - whining about polling on unicorns ?Public Sector Aggregates: Total Managed Expenditure
----------------------------------------------------------------
Year Nominal Change | Real Change | GDP Ratio Change
£ bn % | £ bn % | % %
----------------------------------------------------------------
Gordon Brown and Alistair Darling
2005-06 526.4 ˄ 6.26% | 624.7 ˄ 4.34% | 40.6 ˄ 0.74%
2006-07 553.0 ˄ 5.05% | 638.1 ˄ 2.15% | 40.4 ˅ (0.49%)
2007-08 586.6 ˄ 6.08% | 660.2 ˄ 3.46% | 40.5 ˄ 0.25%
2008-09 634.3 ˄ 8.13% | 694.4 ˄ 5.18% | 44.0 ˄ 8.64%
2009-10 672.5 ˄ 6.02% | 716.4 ˄ 3.17% | 47.0 ˄ 6.82%
| |
2005-10 ˄ 27.75% | ˄ 14.68% | ˄ 15.76%
----------------------------------------------------------------
George Osborne
2010-11 693.9 ˄ 3.18% | 720.5 ˄ 0.57% | 46.2 ˅ (1.70%)
2011-12 694.6 ˄ 0.10% | 705.1 ˅ (2.14%) | 45.0 ˅ (2.60%)
2012-13 675.3 ˅ (2.78%) | 675.3 ˅ (4.23%) | 43.1 ˅ (4.22%)
2013-14 720.0 ˄ 6.62% | 703.9 ˄ 4.24% | 45.1 ˄ 4.64%
2014-15 730.4 ˄ 1.44% | 700.7 ˅ (0.45%) | 44.1 ˅ (2.22%)
2010-15 ˄ 5.26% | ˅ (2.75%) | ˅ (4.55%)
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You need to write some stern letters to the Guardian, tim. They keep telling their readership at the BBC that Osborne has imposed austerity and hardship beyond anything seen in Western Europe since the Irish potato famine.tim said:I've been pointing out to you for two years that Osborne is increasing spending, yet it still hasn't sunk in judging by your earlier comment.
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I thought "fire sale" referred to a forced sale at speed because the seller desperately needed the money, e.g. due to imminent insolvency, leading to a sale well below fair market value. Originating from the sale of stock due to fire destroying either storage or retail premises, leaving the seller with no choice about taking time over the sale to get the best price. So that would be consistent with the Labour line you mention above. Have I misunderstood the term all these years? Embarrassing...RichardNabavi said:Hang on, I thought the Labour line was that the Royal Mail was a great national asset partly being rapaciously given free to its staff and partly sold off far too cheaply. Now Ed is claiming it's fire-damaged goods having to be sold at virtually nothing to get rid of it.
The message seems rather mixed...
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Actually it's both - the original meaning was indeed a sale of fire-damaged goods, but it's changed over the years.Polruan said:I thought "fire sale" referred to a forced sale at speed because the seller desperately needed the money, e.g. due to imminent insolvency, leading to a sale well below fair market value. Originating from the sale of stock due to fire destroying either storage or retail premises, leaving the seller with no choice about taking time over the sale to get the best price. So that would be consistent with the Labour line you mention above. Have I misunderstood the term all these years? Embarrassing...
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Is this auction for your To the Lighthouse book?SeanT said:fpt
"I trust you are going to fund the next pb drinks event. Least you can bloody do. Eight short years ago you were a penniless, struggling, (on benefits IIRC), semi-starving, shrouded in fear and terror by the 7/7/05 bombings. See, I can recall your virginal posts.
So give something back to the folks who never lost faith. It's called the Big Society. Bottoms up"
lol. It's a fair point. I'd like to take you all to my favourite bar in Bangkok but I worry tim would get over-excited.
So instead, here's the deal: if both Dutch and German auctions are concluded successfully, rather than fizzling out into nothing, I will put £50 behind the bar at the next pb do, as a thanks for everyone tolerating my smugness (if I can't be there myself).
Talking of smugness, I've just heard that the Wm Morris movie agent in LA is so excited by this book she is taking it to Hollywood studios TODAY. I only finished the last draft on Tuesday.
Absurd! I am sure nothing will happen moviewise (it never does) nonetheless I am riding the buzz, as you very seldom get days like this as a writer.
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I assume the point was that the Government was treating the Royal Mail like fire-damaged goods to be sold off quickly when it isn't.RichardNabavi said:
Actually it's both - the original meaning was indeed a sale of fire-damaged goods, but it's changed over the years.Polruan said:I thought "fire sale" referred to a forced sale at speed because the seller desperately needed the money, e.g. due to imminent insolvency, leading to a sale well below fair market value. Originating from the sale of stock due to fire destroying either storage or retail premises, leaving the seller with no choice about taking time over the sale to get the best price. So that would be consistent with the Labour line you mention above. Have I misunderstood the term all these years? Embarrassing...
But the most important thing is that many small investors have taken part including a tenth of the Royal Mail itself. And the government keeps a share. It effectively insulates the gov't against the idea of missing out.0 -
Osborne and investment in housebuilding:tim said:Construction figures out of the last three recessions
http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/construction/output-in-the-construction-industry/august-2013/sty-construction-industry.html
How clever does Osborne slashing the housebuilding budget look there
The government in June 2013 recognised the scale of the supply issues in the housing sector announcing that it would provide significant support for the housing market. This consisted of a total of over £5.1 billion of investment to support housing in England between 2015-16 and 2017-18. Including £3.3 billion of new funding for affordable housing between 2015-16 and 2017-18 and certainty on social rents up to 2025-26. This is anticipated to provide over 200,000 new affordable homes by 2018-19.
And this is all in addition to the support provided by the Funds for Lending and three Help to Buy schemes.
Oh dear, tim.
Not your day, today.
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"We are going to hear again and again over the next few years a bunch of Labour stories about cuts to capital spending that are quite simply lies. Everytime you hear about how a school or a hospital isn’t going to be built because of Tory cuts be aware that this is a bare-faced lie.
In the December 2009 Pre-Budget Report Labour chancellor Alistair Darling announced a halving of net public sector investment.....
If you go to table B13 on page 189 of the December 2009 Pre-Budget Report you can see how public sector net investment was due to be halved by Darling....
Look at the net investment line which goes from £50 billion in 2009/10 to £22 billion in 2013/14."
http://philtaylor.org.uk/2010/11/labour-will-spend-the-next-five-years-lying-about-investment-spending/0 -
I am quoting TME (Total Managed Expenditure).tim said:@Avery.
Yep, there's George increasing spending in the fourth year of the parliament
Why not post total govt spending?
I am not sure what you mean by "total govt spending". But whatever you mean (Central Government spending?) it will be a subset of the TME figures.
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@JonathanD
So Osborne's fiscal policies didnt kill growth (according to the stats tim posted) and he allowed more capital spending than Labour planned for.
Where on earth does this leave tim?!0 -
You're a real gent, sir, no mistake about that. No mistake. Genuflects while simultaneously tugging non existent forlock.SeanT said:fpt
"I trust you are going to fund the next pb drinks event. Least you can bloody do. Eight short years ago you were a penniless, struggling, (on benefits IIRC), semi-starving, shrouded in fear and terror by the 7/7/05 bombings. See, I can recall your virginal posts.
So give something back to the folks who never lost faith. It's called the Big Society. Bottoms up"
lol. It's a fair point. I'd like to take you all to my favourite bar in Bangkok but I worry tim would get over-excited.
So instead, here's the deal: if both Dutch and German auctions are concluded successfully, rather than fizzling out into nothing, I will put £50 behind the bar at the next pb do, as a thanks for everyone tolerating my smugness (if I can't be there myself).
Talking of smugness, I've just heard that the Wm Morris movie agent in LA is so excited by this book she is taking it to Hollywood studios TODAY. I only finished the last draft on Tuesday.
Absurd! I am sure nothing will happen moviewise (it never does) nonetheless I am riding the buzz, as you very seldom get days like this as a writer.
(Just for clarity - that's £50 for me?)0 -
I've written an upmarket ghost story set on a Scottish island with a - ah, yes, I see - with a lighthouse!
Congrats on your success. 'Upmarket' Ghost story is an interesting term...the case of the haunted Waitrose??0 -
The Mail and the Telegraph are not going to give up on the Guardian:
"I could be dead and not writing these words.
At least that might have been the case, if The Guardian had published the highly classified secrets of how the Secret Intelligence Services use technology to protect our country from terrorism in 1992, when I was patrolling the so called “bandit country” of South Armagh."
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/defence/10372785/If-The-Guardian-had-published-its-Snowden-stories-in-1992-I-might-be-dead.html0 -
Golly
"Mr Straw told BBC News: "I'm not suggesting for a moment anybody in the Guardian gratuitously wants to risk anybody's life, but what I do think is that their sense of power of having these secrets and excitement - almost adolescent excitement - about these secrets has gone to their head.
"They're blinding themselves about the consequence and also showing an extraordinary naïveté and arrogance in implying that they are in a position to judge whether or not particular secrets are not likely to damage the national interest. They're not in any position at all to do that." http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/defence/10372603/Jack-Straw-Guardian-has-shown-extraordinary-naivete-and-arrogance-in-leaks.html0 -
Neil said:
@JonathanD
Where on earth does this leave tim?!
I think he has to fall back on saying that in 2010 Osborne was either spending too much time telling people the sky was falling in or that the 'recovery was on track'.
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But the Tories can't do that.antifrank said:It's hard to see this doing the Tories any harm in the polling, at least this side of a general election.
The real solution to the housing shortage is to relax planning regulation in areas where we need more housing. How much architectural damage would be done if we left east London, for example, to its own devices on this front?
Because if they did Labour would be screaming "do they think East London is [ugly/not worth preserving/a desolate wasteland/insert hyperbole de jour]"0 -
We're riveted now drips from your largesse (ooh, er) could quench our geeky obsessive thirsts (and that's just Neil). Surely that 27,000 minimun Euros will seal the deal? A measly £50? C'mon, mate.....SeanT said:For those interested (what, no-one?), the latest bids are in. The three Dutch bids are too embarrassingly small to mention, and they've been told to come back with sensible offers at 17:00 Frankfurt time.
The highest German bid is €27,000, however ALL SIX publishers are still in the race, and will have to bid again at 18:00 Frankfurt time.
I can see you are all fascinated. At least you can be assured this won't happen again. Publishing is never this exciting - normally.0 -
There aren't exactly a surfeit of Tory seats to be lost in east London. Besides, large parts of east London are ugly/not worth preserving and some parts are indeed a desolate wasteland.Charles said:
But the Tories can't do that.antifrank said:It's hard to see this doing the Tories any harm in the polling, at least this side of a general election.
The real solution to the housing shortage is to relax planning regulation in areas where we need more housing. How much architectural damage would be done if we left east London, for example, to its own devices on this front?
Because if they did Labour would be screaming "do they think East London is [ugly/not worth preserving/a desolate wasteland/insert hyperbole de jour]"0 -
Has SeanT already done a blog on double standards at the Guardian?CarlottaVance said:The Mail and the Telegraph are not going to give up on the Guardian:
http://order-order.com/2013/10/11/guardians-bid-for-smear-of-the-year/
Polly apparently blaming a sub for the headline... Like the Mail. Oh, wait...0 -
Be as annoying or as vexatious as you like. You are granted a plenary indulgence.SeanT said:
OK yep. Deal. £50 behind the bar. However, this means I am allowed to be annoying until the excitement dies down.JohnO said:
We're riveted now drips from your largesse (ooh, er) could quench our thirsts. Surely that 27,000 minimun Euros will seal the deal? A measly £50? C'mon, mate.....SeanT said:For those interested (what, no-one?), the latest bids are in. The three Dutch bids are too embarrassingly small to mention, and they've been told to come back with sensible offers at 17:00 Frankfurt time.
The highest German bid is €27,000, however ALL SIX publishers are still in the race, and will have to bid again at 18:00 Frankfurt time.
I can see you are all fascinated. At least you can be assured this won't happen again. Publishing is never this exciting - normally.0 -
They were for a free press until they were against it.CarlottaVance said:
The Mail and the Telegraph are not going to give up on the Guardian:
"I could be dead and not writing these words.
At least that might have been the case, if The Guardian had published the highly classified secrets of how the Secret Intelligence Services use technology to protect our country from terrorism in 1992, when I was patrolling the so called “bandit country” of South Armagh."
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/defence/10372785/If-The-Guardian-had-published-its-Snowden-stories-in-1992-I-might-be-dead.html0 -
Manta 2 is utterly consistent.tim said:
"After the govt increased the discounts available"TGOHF said:also the right to buy scheme shouldn't be ignored in this discussion..
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2453431/More-10-000-tenants-purchased-properties-Right-Buy-scheme-year.html
10th Oct
"Margaret Thatcher's flagship Right to Buy scheme has been given a boost with the number of people buying their council houses doubling in a year.
Ten thousand tenants have purchased their properties since last year, the highest level since before the recession, after the government increased the discounts available."
The govt is very good at selling £10 notes for £7.
But we've seen this logic on here so many times before.
PB Tory Mantra 2
Bob Crow should not be allowed to live in a council flat
Bob Crow should be given £100,000 to buy his council flat.
Tories believe it is better for people to own their own homes, because this contributes towards a sense of pride, a desire to maintain the property and to invest in the area. Bob Crow is a citizen of this country, and so should have the same rights as other citizens. Because of the societal benefit of home ownership, this should include a contribution to buying his own council house. I would be happy, though, if government wanted to introduce restrictions (say income or wealth) on people who got this support, although you need to be careful around incentives.
However, there is also a role for social housing. However this is a scarce resource and should be preserved for those who need it most. Bob Crow earns a large salary working in a senior role for a private organisation. He doesn't strike me as the target market for social housing.
In fact I would go futher than that. Bob Crow is, in my opinion, a greedy blood-sucking parasite who is greedily diverting limited social resources that other people desparately need. He earns enough to buy his own home or to rent one privately.0 -
timtim said:AveryLP said:
this was truly bonkers from Osborne
British government cuts social housing budget
Wed Oct 20, 2010 11:42am
* Osborne targets 155,000 new affordable homes over 4 yrs
* Budget shrinks from 8.4 bln stg to 4.4 bln
*Move to exacerbate housing shortage
* Housebuilders face bigger challenges from private market
By Lorraine Turner
LONDON, Oct 20 (Reuters) - The British government has taken the axe to its budget for social housing in a move that will limit the number of new affordable homes and add another blow to the fragile UK housing industry.
Conservative finance minister George Osborne announced on Wednesday in a review of public spending the government would cut the number of affordable homes it planned to build by 30 percent to 150,000.
The budget to do this was halved to 4.4 billion pounds ($6.92 billion) compared to the 8.4 billion pounds spent over the previous three year period.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2010/10/20/britain-spending-housing-idUSLDE69J1E720101020
As we have discussed before and no doubt will many times more, the business model for social housing build pursued over the past two decades is flawed.
In the short term, Osborne was right to cut further subsidy to a non-functioning sector and concentrate his efforts on stimulating private sector housing construction.
I accept that this policy fails to address the long term needs for increased social housing but the key to satisfying this need is not to continue throwing government money at it until a new business model can be developed which will have to address not only returns on investment for building, maintaining and managing property for rent but also the need to attract finance to support expansion. In a market where you lose a little on each dwelling unit you are unlikely to make up the losses by increasing volume.
The whole relationship between current expenses (housing benefit) and the capital accounts (investment, stock valuation and market liquidity) needs to be re-evaluated.
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Golly
A UK terror incident now would be terrible for us all, but for the Guardian.....sheeesh
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A snippet from the Daily Record opinion section about Jim Murphy written a few day ago.
He fell out with Ed Miliband over the Syria vote. {He} wanted Labour to support David Cameron’s plan to back military action.
Murphy felt the Tories would not forget the voting doublecross and get their vengeance in the first military venture a future Labour government might propose. (my emphasis)
The Labour leader might think he has exiled a possible critic and rival to the outback of international development.
But remember how Macduff was exiled to England by Macbeth. Macduff came back – and took out Macbeth.
http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/record-view-michael-moore-need-23492640 -
"their sense of power of having these secrets and excitement - almost adolescent excitement - about these secrets has gone to their head."
A sharp but accurate comment.
No doubt when the next atrocity happens they will be writing articles about why the security services failed to catch the perpetrators.0 -
Cue meltdown
@HSJEditor: Surprising? Net satisfaction with 'the running of the NHS' apparently on the rise http://t.co/Qp48c5YDsF Lots of interesting data here0 -
@JPonpolitics: On Pienaar's Politics this Sunday at 10am on 5 live, my guests are Boris Johnson (@MayorofLondon), @jimmurphymp and @The_Proclaimers.old_labour said:A snippet from the Daily Record opinion section about Jim Murphy written a few day ago.
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I assume you have completed the five book contract for the Tom Knox series and the auctions are a first test of market support for your plans for a genre shift.SeanT said:
Virginia Woolf?!AveryLP said:
Is this auction for your To the Lighthouse book?SeanT said:fpt
"I trust you are going to fund the next pb drinks event. Least you can bloody do. Eight short years ago you were a penniless, struggling, (on benefits IIRC), semi-starving, shrouded in fear and terror by the 7/7/05 bombings. See, I can recall your virginal posts.
So give something back to the folks who never lost faith. It's called the Big Society. Bottoms up"
lol. It's a fair point. I'd like to take you all to my favourite bar in Bangkok but I worry tim would get over-excited.
So instead, here's the deal: if both Dutch and German auctions are concluded successfully, rather than fizzling out into nothing, I will put £50 behind the bar at the next pb do, as a thanks for everyone tolerating my smugness (if I can't be there myself).
Talking of smugness, I've just heard that the Wm Morris movie agent in LA is so excited by this book she is taking it to Hollywood studios TODAY. I only finished the last draft on Tuesday.
Absurd! I am sure nothing will happen moviewise (it never does) nonetheless I am riding the buzz, as you very seldom get days like this as a writer.
I couldn't stand that book. I kept thinking - Just go to the lighthouse, already.
I've written an upmarket ghost story set on a Scottish island with a - ah, yes, I see - with a lighthouse!
Yes. That's the one. This one.
I guess that makes the auctions an important career milestone.
Good luck!
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It is quite extraordinary - he's already brushed away several enquiries about his well-being. For a man so concerned about image, the lack of self-awareness is striking.SeanT said:Re the Campbell Meltdown on Twitter, I do wonder what the Disaster of Iraq must have done to the psychology of those who took us in to that war.
A blog, mayhap.
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the South East where the Conservatives need to keep a lock on seats if they’re to have a chance of denying Labour a majority
Seems iffy, is the south-east really key to the general election? I mean, you could make out that any region except Scotland was politically important with "where the Tories need to make progress for a majority" or "where the Tories need to hold off Labour", but what really matters is where the actual marginals are, and I think the answer to that is "all over the place".0 -
Arise Sir Jeremy ?Scott_P said:Cue meltdown
@HSJEditor: Surprising? Net satisfaction with 'the running of the NHS' apparently on the rise http://t.co/Qp48c5YDsF Lots of interesting data here0 -
so less than 6 figures? You must be so disappointed!SeanT said:For those interested (what, no-one?), the latest bids are in. The three Dutch bids are too embarrassingly small to mention, and they've been told to come back with sensible offers at 17:00 Frankfurt time.
The highest German bid is €27,000, however ALL SIX publishers are still in the race, and will have to bid again at 18:00 Frankfurt time.
I can see you are all fascinated. At least you can be assured this won't happen again. Publishing is never this exciting - normally.0 -
While the Tories would pickup seats in all the places you mention, the downside of course is they would lose dozens in the South of England, mostly to the LibDems. The other issue with STV is that, being a constituency system, electoral bias while reduced would not be entirely eliminated, leaving the possibility of a wrong winner election in a close national contest. Also if the Tories remain preference repellent, they will tend to lose out slightly in their proportional entitlement of seats.OblitusSumMe said:FPT - RodCrosby. Yes, the Tories have nearly 36,000 votes in the three Sefton seats [Sefton Central, Bootle and Southport], and nothing to show for it, being still 8% behind Labour in their nearest target. Labour hold two of the seats with less than 52,000 votes in all three and the Lib Dems the other with 40,000 votes in total not many more than the Tories.
It's a good example of how the Lib Dems have learnt to concentrate their vote to survive with FPTP, and how inefficient distribution of Tory votes really hurts them in FPTP.
PR^2 solves these problems, while remaining quasi-STV.
i) Only first preferences will determine the national outcome. Most votes will equal most seats, and every vote will contribute directly to the national result. The preferences will determine the winning constituency candidates, once the winning parties have been allocated to constituencies.
ii) The overall outcome is closer to FPTP (winners bonus). A majority is still possible while landslides would be moderated.
Comparison
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That deserves a round of applause.Polruan said:
The Woman in White Company?taffys said:I've written an upmarket ghost story set on a Scottish island with a - ah, yes, I see - with a lighthouse!
Congrats on your success. 'Upmarket' Ghost story is an interesting term...the case of the haunted Waitrose??
Or at least a like. If they existed. Which they don't.
So consider your post metaphysically liked.0 -
FPTP makes politics boring in Oxfordshire
...but it would be pretty dull under STV too - at least the beer is good
Most of the voters in Oxfordshire may as well not exist, for all the difference their individual decision whether to bother to cast a vote will make to the outcome of the 2015 general election. It is a testament to the overlooked virtue of civic duty that turnout will be so high despite this, but we can already predict the outcome of five of Oxfordshire's six seats with virtually absolute certainty.
The Conservatives will hold the four "rural" seats of Witney, Banbury, Wantage and Henley. Labour, though run close by the Lib Dems in 2005, will hold Oxford East as they have done since 1987. This leaves us with the Lib Dem attempt to regain Oxford West & Abingdon. While this will be a genuine contest any supporter of Ed Miliband is left with the choice between abstaining on the contest between the Lib Dems and the Conservatives, or voting for the Coalition by voting tactically to unseat a Tory.
There is no reason for Labour to make anything other than a routine effort anywhere in Oxfordshire, and for the Tories and Lib Dems the only seat in play is Oxford West & Abingdon. Five-sixths of the county will be effectively ignored by the political campaigns, and the one-sixth that is not will only have the attention of two of the three major parties.
Using STV the six seats would probably split three to the Conservatives, two to the Liberal Democrats and one to Labour. It looks like all three parties are quite far from winning/losing any of these seats, so a switch to STV would appear to make politics even less interesting in Oxfordshire.
However, in a couple of important respects this is not the case. Firstly, while the party splits look fairly stable, voters would be able to use STV to choose between the candidates representing each party. It would be for Conservative voters to decide which two of Tony Baldry, Ed Vaizey, John Howell and Nicola Blackwood would join David Cameron in the Commons.
Secondly, there has been a large decline in the Labour vote in southern rural seats, as the party has ruthlessly concentrated resources on the marginals. If they could reverse that in rural Oxfordshire they could hope to take an extra seat here away from the Lib Dems, and so there would be an incentive for both Labour and the Lib Dems to campaign more vigorously in the Oxfordshire seats that are currently Tory safe seats.0 -
As I said, providing you make sure the incentives work out (difficult to structure a bright-line test) I'd be happy with income/wealth restrictions on who gets the discount for social housing.tim said:@Charles
But you still think the state should give a £100k discount if Bob Crow wants to buy his "scarce resource"
I realise you're in favour of disposing of taxpayer assets at knockdown prices for ideological reasons though, you made that clear this morning
Far easier, though, to make sure the likes of Bob Crow don't live in the houses, and then you can give the discounts to all the occupants.
re: post office, don't make stuff up. I don't believe that 330p is a knock down price. I haven't seen Lazard's report, but I think Peston noted that 330p is well supported by comparable companies. Arguably there is upside (restructuring) in a newly privatised company so you could argue for a slightly higher price, but that is probably offset by the typical IPO discount. I just think there is a lot of froth in the price, and there isn't much value left at 450p.0 -
With Burnley at the top of the championship? Perhaps he's worried they will gain promotion to the Premier League again, and go straight back down.SeanT said:Re the Campbell Meltdown on Twitter, I do wonder what the Disaster of Iraq must have done to the psychology of those who took us in to that war.
Blair seems immune to self-doubt - thanks to his religion, and enormous vanity.
But Campbell is a depressive ex-boozer. I bet he has dark dark moments when he thinks about Kelly, and the dodgy dossier, and 100,000-300,000 dead, and the ongoing civil war, and it all comes back to haunt him. This guilt and self-loathing would become an unbearable death-wish if it was left to fester. So instead it is externalised into aggression, just as Freud diagnosed.
Perhaps that's what drives Campbell's tirades against Dacre - his blustering and bullying is just badly disguised self loathing.
A blog, mayhap.0 -
Bit of an own goal by Labour's new communication seal team member:
October 10 2013
"Michael Dugher: To ask the Secretary of State for Communities and Local Government how much his Department and its associated public bodies spent on (a) external public relations consultants and (b) public affairs consultants, in each of the past three years; and for what purposes such consultants were engaged.
Brandon Lewis: The information is as follows:
External public relations:
The core department has spent nothing on external public relations from 2010-11 to 2012-13. This compares with the last Administration which spent nearly £1.1 million in 2009-10, on top of employing over 100 in-house communications staff......
http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm201314/cmhansrd/cm131010/text/131010w0003.htm#131010800001040 -
The notion that the NHS or any public service is better with endlessly more money is as misplaced as it is in the private sector - when you have money sloshing about - you stop focussing on what you're meant to do and start hobby projects, paying over the odds and mission creeping.Scott_P said:Cue meltdown
@HSJEditor: Surprising? Net satisfaction with 'the running of the NHS' apparently on the rise http://t.co/Qp48c5YDsF Lots of interesting data here
Necessity is the mother of invention is a truism for a reason.0 -
To be honest HTB has helped me get on the housing ladder. Without it I would not be able to afford the flat I am about to purchase, I just don't have the savings, but I can easily meet the mortgage payments (which are lower than my rent costs right now) even if interest rates go up from 0.5% to 4%.
If the intended result of HTB is to win votes then I don't think it will be very successful, the number of people who gain directly from such a scheme is quite small, but if it is to help people like me get on the property ladder then I think it is going to be very successful. It also has the added bonus of bringing in a few billion in fees to the Treasury.
If anything the biggest losers are traditional Tory voters who own buy-to-let properties who will all see their rental yields decrease as younger people now have a prop to get on the housing ladder, the only other intervention that would be as successful in lowering rents would be rent controls. As for the bastard landlords, **** em. Earning money doing sweet FA is not something the government should encourage.0 -
You missed the best bitCarlottaVance said:Bit of an own goal by Labour's new communication seal team member:
October 10 2013
"Michael Dugher: To ask the Secretary of State for Communities and Local Government how much his Department and its associated public bodies spent on (a) external public relations consultants and (b) public affairs consultants, in each of the past three years; and for what purposes such consultants were engaged.
Brandon Lewis: The information is as follows:
External public relations:
The core department has spent nothing on external public relations from 2010-11 to 2012-13. This compares with the last Administration which spent nearly £1.1 million in 2009-10, on top of employing over 100 in-house communications staff......
http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm201314/cmhansrd/cm131010/text/131010w0003.htm#13101080000104
"Public affairs consultancy
My Department has spent nothing since 2010-11 on public affairs consultancy. Ministers in this Government in May to July 2010 instructed all our arm’s length bodies to cancel all such contracts, and there should have been no further expenditure other than the termination of those contracts during 2010-11, as outlined in the answer to my question of 14 December 2010, Official Report, column 676-77W.
To place this in context, taxpayers' money in the last Administration was being spent on the likes of:
LLM Communications by DCLG to run a “sock puppet” campaign in favour of Regional Spatial Strategies;
Chelgate by West Northamptonshire Development Corporation with a remit including the goal of securing “additional funding” from DCLG;
Mandate by Ordnance Survey, which included lobbying the Conservative Party in Opposition behind Labour Ministers' backs;"
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I've never managed to understand how PR^2 accommodates independents, and though some of the independents in Ireland are a blight on their politics I dislike an electoral system that a priori makes it so difficult for independents to make an impact, thus making the party too powerful within the political system.RodCrosby said:While the Tories would pickup seats in all the places you mention, the downside of course is they would lose dozens in the South of England, mostly to the LibDems. The other issue with STV is that, being a constituency system, electoral bias while reduced would not be entirely eliminated, leaving the possibility of a wrong winner election in a close national contest. Also if the Tories remain preference repellent, they will tend to lose out slightly in their proportional entitlement of seats.
PR^2 solves these problems, while remaining quasi-STV.
i) Only first preferences will determine the national outcome. Most votes will equal most seats, and every vote will contribute directly to the national result. The preferences will determine the winning constituency candidates, once the winning parties have been allocated to constituencies.
ii) The overall outcome is closer to FPTP (winners bonus). A majority is still possible while landslides would be moderated.
Comparison
The reason that I have come to like STV is that it appears to be the representative elective system that gives most power to individual electors to determine the result without forcing them into a party system.0 -
2015 GE debates:
"It is clear that the Tories are not prepared to give such a platform to Mr Farage. Labour and the Liberal Democrats are more open-minded, perhaps mischievously rather than out of principle. They know Mr Farage would give Mr Cameron the biggest headache, and so are content to let the Prime Minister wield the veto."
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/inside-westminster-why-the-leadership-debates-of-2015-wont-happen--even-through-they-should-8874563.html0 -
@SeanT
Well done on your success. I hope you earn a fortune.
You're a fab writer and funny too. And you might be a **** to lefties, but that makes it even funnier.
I introduced my brother to the stuff you write. He's a teacher; an alcoholic, manic-depressive English lecturer who wears shit clothes and drinks vodka. He constantly bangs on about how intellectual and fascinating his fellow lefty lecturers are. They all hate Tories, hate Britain and read Plath's poetry in the staff room to cheer eachother up. I told him to show your Telegraph pieces to them, so they can choke on their tofu.
After reading your stuff he ended up drinking even more vodka.
Congrats anyway. As arse-lickey as it is to say it I wish I could write as well as you. And I bet everyone else does too.
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