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  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    edited January 2017
    Election in NI. Maybe...
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,569
    edited January 2017
    MattW said:

    @SO

    I think you are a long way out on your numbers.

    A combined income of 30k in 1992 is worth 75k now (not 45k) on average earnings increases.
    https://www.measuringworth.com/ukearncpi/

    On a 400k property that would give you a potential mortgage of 350k with the Halifax, which would let you buy pretty much anywhere outside zone 1, depending on the property you wanted.

    And there is Help to Buy, 5% deposits etc.

    Even on the average London salary each you would have a lot of scope.

    Surely direct equivalnce of salaries is only half the story. A primary school teacher salary is around £25,000 a journalist with experience our friend describes about the same, according to a website I researched. That suggests that while £30k is a bit low, £40k is more like, rather than the direct comparative figure of £75k.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    A rating of 28% from ICM – under present circumstances – is not too bad for Labour and matches its highest level with this pollster since late August. Going back as far as 1997 ICM has tended to give Labour a lower rating than most pollsters – and has usually been better for the LibDems. No real sign of the latter in this poll. On the whole if ICM has Labour at 28% I would expect other pollsters to have them on 30% plus.Since late November YouGov appears to have taken up the mantle of recording the the lowest Labour vote shares – despite having been the only pollster in this Parliament to have produced a Labour lead – last April being the most recent.
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503

    This was the same Balfour of the Balfour Declaration. Was that in the 'didn't matter at all' or 'didn't matter very much' category?
    That's far too contentious a question for me to answer in my new, very mellow 2017 mood :). I shall borrow Mao's famous (and erroneous) quote and claim that it's too early to tell.
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    edited January 2017

    West Coast Republicans are a different breed to Republicans elsewhere in my experience.

    Well it's interesting to know there are quite a few Republicans who don't fit the stereotype. The only contact I've really had with GOPers is online and they generally fit the stereotype to some degree or another. Their views are more closely aligned with Paul Ryan then they are with Colin Powell.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,329
    Can lay £11 @110 Dan Hannan next Con leader...free money?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,311

    Mr. F, can't comment much (don't have experience of phenomenal sales) but it seems to largely be random. Do people like the cover, or the title? Does your book get bought by a lovely big mouth with a huge social circle who always bangs on about the books they buy?

    Anyway, working on various novels, but after they're done I may try a serial approach. Something like bundling three chapters together for 99p, then giving three away, then three for 99p, and, at the end, releasing a full book. E-books to create downwards pricing pressure but also make serials more viable.

    How do I find you on Amazon?
  • MattW said:

    @SO

    I think you are a long way out on your numbers.

    A combined income of 30k in 1992 is worth 75k now (not 45k) on average earnings increases.
    https://www.measuringworth.com/ukearncpi/

    On a 400k property that would give you a potential mortgage of 350k with the Halifax, which would let you buy pretty much anywhere outside zone 1, depending on the property you wanted.

    And there is Help to Buy, 5% deposits etc.

    Even on the average London salary each you would have a lot of scope.

    I know what London-based B2B journos with one years experience get because I employ them! It's £22,00 to £25,000. I am guessing first year primary school teachers get about the same. Between then they definitely don't get close to £75,000.

  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,481
    Mr. Royale, right here:
    https://www.amazon.co.uk/Thaddeus-White/e/B008C6RU98/

    Cheers. Got a short in a fantasy anthology due around 15 February, so hoping that might spur some more Kingdom Asunder sales (differently world, but still).
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,569
    John_M said:

    That's far too contentious a question for me to answer in my new, very mellow 2017 mood :). I shall borrow Mao's famous (and erroneous) quote and claim that it's too early to tell.
    Wasn’t the quotee Chou En Lai?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,311

    Mr. Royale, right here:
    https://www.amazon.co.uk/Thaddeus-White/e/B008C6RU98/

    Cheers. Got a short in a fantasy anthology due around 15 February, so hoping that might spur some more Kingdom Asunder sales (differently world, but still).

    My wife loves fantasy, but needs a love story. So she likes Secrets of Shambala (?) and Everman Saga etc.

    You got that in amongst beheading demons? ;-)
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 18,214
    MattW said:

    @SO

    I think you are a long way out on your numbers.

    A combined income of 30k in 1992 is worth 75k now (not 45k) on average earnings increases.
    https://www.measuringworth.com/ukearncpi/

    On a 400k property that would give you a potential mortgage of 350k with the Halifax, which would let you buy pretty much anywhere outside zone 1, depending on the property you wanted.

    And there is Help to Buy, 5% deposits etc.

    Even on the average London salary each you would have a lot of scope.

    Also, mortgage interest rates in 1992 were about 12%; today, they're about 3%. So while a £650 pm payment would service a £137k 25yr mortgage at 3%, it would only pay for a £61700 25yr mortgage at 12%.

    The fall in interest rates has prompted prices to rise to more than double what they otherwise would have been, for the same (current) affordability.
  • SeanT said:

    Decline in sales is the major factor. And the ending of the Net Book Agreement, which guaranteed decent royalties from quite expensive books, and kept lots of little bookshops open

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Net_Book_Agreement

    To be fair "literary" authors themselves are partly guilty. They tend to look down on plots and plotting as belonging to "genre" fiction - thrillers, detective fiction, sci fi. You can get away with a plotless novel if you are James Joyce, or maybe Martin Amis, but most writers aren't Joyce or Amis. So their plotless novels go unread.

    And now I must go and do some plotting, myself.
    Thank link suggests that overall book sales are up 30% since the collapse of the Net Book Agreement so why does that cause just 900 copies to be sold?

    Is it that we're reading more books but they're all from the same few authors rather than diverse ones?
  • Also, mortgage interest rates in 1992 were about 12%; today, they're about 3%. So while a £650 pm payment would service a £137k 25yr mortgage at 3%, it would only pay for a £61700 25yr mortgage at 12%.

    The fall in interest rates has prompted prices to rise to more than double what they otherwise would have been, for the same (current) affordability.
    You're assuming interest only which is going to affect your calculation. Not that the point is affected.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,569

    Also, mortgage interest rates in 1992 were about 12%; today, they're about 3%. So while a £650 pm payment would service a £137k 25yr mortgage at 3%, it would only pay for a £61700 25yr mortgage at 12%.

    The fall in interest rates has prompted prices to rise to more than double what they otherwise would have been, for the same (current) affordability.
    Plus the effect of the squeeze on public sector salaries. My teacher grandson and his girlfriend, looking to buy a house this year (not in London) expect a rise of 1%. A rise in mortgage rates could quite easily become crippling.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,481
    Mr. Royale, there's a spot of romance in Kingdom Asunder. Both straight and lesbian (because I believe in diversity). There's more treachery and murder, though, the frisky relationships are an undercurrent rather than the meat of the story.

    If we're using a broad and politically incorrect definition of romance, the Adventures of Sir Edric would be the way to go. Flashman meets Blackadder in fantasyland, essentially. His long term girlfriend's an S&M enthusiast (only a brief appearance in the above book, but she'll have a major role in the next - because I support alternative lifestyles).
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,311
    isam said:

    TV and film stars are entitled to their opinions and to express them via the platforms they have. They did so before our referendum and the USA election.

    But they, and those who welcome/share their views, are often the ones complaining about "divided society", and their comments don't help to heal that division. It makes me think the only options they will consider are

    (a) Their vision of society (which Trump & Brexit voters have just shown to be unacceptable to them)

    (b) A divided society, where they cry and moan that its not run by them anymore

    Never (c) accept the decision and try to make things better

    Yes, that's a good point. Having a view is fine, but how you say it is very important if you want it to have the maximum effect in influencing others.

    Too often I think some individuals are more interested in feeling good about themselves through demonising the other, rather than endeavouring to win others round to their point of view.
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503

    Wasn’t the quotee Chou En Lai?
    *slaps forehead* of course! My apologies.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,507

    Mr. Royale, there's a spot of romance in Kingdom Asunder. Both straight and lesbian (because I believe in diversity). There's more treachery and murder, though, the frisky relationships are an undercurrent rather than the meat of the story.

    If we're using a broad and politically incorrect definition of romance, the Adventures of Sir Edric would be the way to go. Flashman meets Blackadder in fantasyland, essentially. His long term girlfriend's an S&M enthusiast (only a brief appearance in the above book, but she'll have a major role in the next - because I support alternative lifestyles).

    I don't have Kindle. Will there be a paperback?
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 18,214

    You're assuming interest only which is going to affect your calculation. Not that the point is affected.
    No I'm not. They're the back-of-an-envelope repayment figures. 3% interest-only on £137k is £342 pm, though obviously that's not going to pay the mortgage off by itself unless you're relying on capital appreciation and are willing to sell at the end (which a lender won't allow for a primary residence).
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    isam said:

    Can lay £11 @110 Dan Hannan next Con leader...free money?

    He's not an MP for a start and never has been which presents him with overwhelming problem.

  • Yes, that's a good point. Having a view is fine, but how you say it is very important if you want it to have the maximum effect in influencing others.

    Too often I think some individuals are more interested in feeling good about themselves through demonising the other, rather than endeavouring to win others round to their point of view.

    The kind of individuals that mock the disabled?

  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,507

    Thank link suggests that overall book sales are up 30% since the collapse of the Net Book Agreement so why does that cause just 900 copies to be sold?

    Is it that we're reading more books but they're all from the same few authors rather than diverse ones?
    I wonder if pirating is an issue. It's extremely easy to download copies of popular books online.
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503

    Thank link suggests that overall book sales are up 30% since the collapse of the Net Book Agreement so why does that cause just 900 copies to be sold?

    Is it that we're reading more books but they're all from the same few authors rather than diverse ones?
    I think it's a matter of discoverability. According to Wikipedia, there were 184,000 novels published in the UK in 2011. That's huge. I would never have read any of Sean's or Mr Dancer's novels had I not frequented this forum. There's simply too much choice.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,507
    John_M said:

    I think it's a matter of discoverability. According to Wikipedia, there were 184,000 novels published in the UK in 2011. That's huge. I would never have read any of Sean's or Mr Dancer's novels had I not frequented this forum. There's simply too much choice.
    On top of that there are tons of stories published for free online and fanfictions.
  • Also, mortgage interest rates in 1992 were about 12%; today, they're about 3%. So while a £650 pm payment would service a £137k 25yr mortgage at 3%, it would only pay for a £61700 25yr mortgage at 12%.

    The fall in interest rates has prompted prices to rise to more than double what they otherwise would have been, for the same (current) affordability.

    We had a two year fixed rate mortgage at 12%!! But it was interest only.

  • mattmatt Posts: 3,789

    My wife and I bought our first place in London in 1992 - a two-bedroomed flat, with garden, on St John's Way N19. It cost us £60,000. Between us we were earning around £30,000 - her as a primary school teacher in her first year of work, me as a B2B journalist with about a year's experience. The same place now would cost around £400,000, our equivalent joint income would probably be around £45,000.

    In Leamington Spa, my eldest son, who is a 26 year-old graduate, takes home around £1,000 a month. The rent on a one bedroom flat is £600-£700 pcm.

    Something will eventually give.

    I'll rely on an accountant to do the maths but that's more or less minimum wage level I'd have thought. There may be a reason for taking the job but should he be considering renting a flat on his own?
  • Sean_F said:

    I wonder if pirating is an issue. It's extremely easy to download copies of popular books online.
    That would explain sales being down not sales being up.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,188

    I don't agree it's an 'offence', nor that they are 'hijacking' the awards ceremony. Yes, there are plenty of ways for a celeb to express their view - but awards ceremony will obviously get their views the most attention.

    @SeanT I shouldn't be surprised that dating millennials is the way you've managed to hear of the obstacles facing young people! But it was interesting to hear about your experience when you were young. Sounds pretty exciting!

    @Mortimer I don't agree that this generation has a 'snowflakeness' when it comes to politics. As someone who graduated from uni this year, hardly anyone I knew seriously talked about safe spaces or triggering. Most on political issues - during seminars or outside of uni - were a genuine debate with a range of views expressed. I have Conservatives in my own family and I don't tell them that I need a safe space every time I disagree with them.

    A few young people in the headlines don't represent us all. When you look at the Labour leadership election last year for example, Owen Smith actually won 18-24 group - which rather disproves the idea that every young person is the Corbyn supporting tumblr cliche.
    The key word in my sentence was some. You conflated this to take me saying 'all'. It would prevent the need to fly off the rhetorical handle if you didn't conflate.

    As an example of my 'some' argument, when I was at Oxford (05-08) the Rhodes Must Fallers would have been laughed out of town. Not taken as seriously as they were just last year.

  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,188
    MattW said:

    That is very fair comment.

    Safe space trigger happies are funny, but if I have a serious concern it is with the academics and university leaderships who are willing to pander to them.

    The caving in of Oxford University to the Rhodes Must Fall goofballs was just embarrassing.
    It is the 'hardly anyone I knew' comment that worries me.

    I'm only a few (well, maybe a few^3) years older than Ms Apocalypse, and when I was at Uni no-one i knew talked about safe spaces or triggering. We had actual debate, all the time. If you didn't like it, you left the room. You didn't shout down others.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,329

    He's not an MP for a start and never has been which presents him with overwhelming problem.

    Looks like a free £11 for those who wont miss £1200 for the next 5 years or so.. or are already heavily involved in the market in which case the funds are already tied up I guess
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    edited January 2017
    POLL: Public opinion strengthens in favour of border controls as a priority over free trade;

    http://www.orb-international.com/perch/resources/ombrexit-jan17.pdf

  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,852
    isam said:

    Looks like a free £11 for those who wont miss £1200 for the next 5 years or so..
    Otherwise known as an expensive £11.
  • EssexitEssexit Posts: 1,965

    He's not an MP for a start and never has been which presents him with overwhelming problem.

    Hannan as next leader would require:
    (a) TMay in post long enough for him to enter Parliament at a GE or BE, presumably after him losing the MEP gig.
    (b) Hannan to want to carry on in politics.
    (c) Brexit to go well enough that an arch Eurosceptic could win.

    Plenty on here will doubt (c) in particular, but none of it is impossible.
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    edited January 2017
    Sean_F said:

    On top of that there are tons of stories published for free online and fanfictions.
    (Almost) apropos of nothing. One of my favourite writers (Peter Watts) has his entire backlist up on his website (rifters.com), simply because no one will publish a mid-list author's previous efforts. It does work for him commercially, as it drives sales of his current output.

    I will say that Mr Watts is pretty bleak - if you need cheering up, do avoid!
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,458
    SeanT said:

    Moana was excellent - the animation is dazzling. As ever, the cartoons are best.
    Yes it was my favourite cartoon this year but still a long way short of Wall-ee and Belleville Rendez-Vous
  • isamisam Posts: 41,329

    Otherwise known as an expensive £11.
    If you were entering the mkt for the first time the yes, but not if you already had a book with some big reds
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,311

    Mr. Royale, there's a spot of romance in Kingdom Asunder. Both straight and lesbian (because I believe in diversity). There's more treachery and murder, though, the frisky relationships are an undercurrent rather than the meat of the story.

    If we're using a broad and politically incorrect definition of romance, the Adventures of Sir Edric would be the way to go. Flashman meets Blackadder in fantasyland, essentially. His long term girlfriend's an S&M enthusiast (only a brief appearance in the above book, but she'll have a major role in the next - because I support alternative lifestyles).

    Interesting! Will fly the kite and see what happens;-)
  • mattmatt Posts: 3,789
    @ the booktrade

    No, I think people simply read less. I spent 20 years travelling on public transport around London and the change from people reading print to staring at smartphones was marked. There are outlier books but simply less interest. It's not helped by the collapse of retail bookstores. I dont lament the loss of the independent bookselller. I'm sure there were some who weren't sneering, patronising and otherwise customer unfriendly but they were a minority. However, in the 1990s one had Waterstones, Dillon's and Ottakars as national chains. The demise of the NBA changed the landscape - it stopped the subsidising of literary works by the Shades of Grey - and so did the rise of Amazon but simpler we appear to s becoming a post-literary (and, one feels at times, literate, society).
  • BannedInParisBannedInParis Posts: 2,191
    edited January 2017
    Mortimer said:

    The key word in my sentence was some. You conflated this to take me saying 'all'. It would prevent the need to fly off the rhetorical handle if you didn't conflate.

    As an example of my 'some' argument, when I was at Oxford (05-08) the Rhodes Must Fallers would have been laughed out of town. Not taken as seriously as they were just last year.

    Way back when (99-02ish) we had a group in OUSU known as the Loons who stood for elections to vaguely mock the more precious wing of left wing Oxford politics, to little effect.

    I do think said wing took a bit of a punch to the chin when we had the pro-test shenanigans - a small but vocal minority in positions in OUSU found themselves very much in the minority in a referendum we had on animal testing at the university.

    The only thing I can vaguely find concerning the Loons is this: http://www.geocities.ws/cl_o_t_s/minutes.html

    Yeah. I remember them being slightly funnier.

    Anyway, I agree with Mortimer.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Long read by Dom Cummings on how DC and GO blew the referendum (LOOOONG read)

    https://dominiccummings.wordpress.com/2017/01/09/on-the-referendum-21-branching-histories-of-the-2016-referendum-and-the-frogs-before-the-storm-2/

    "Further, it was clear that Cameron/Osborne intended to run a campaign based on hysterical warnings and bogus arguments/figures while ignoring the big questions about how the EU works and its trajectory. No10 tried to turn the whole complex issue into a question about whether the economy would grow a little bit slower over the next few years – a trivial issue relative to the significance of the overall question. They are not a duo who have ever engaged the public on a serious matter in a serious way."
  • Most of the people I know who moved to London in the late 90s/early 00s had to spend a couple of years living in what can only be described as ghettos. Swings and roundabouts.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,481
    edited January 2017
    Mr. F, yes, but because sales of paperbacks are, er, even worse (and margins are really tight) it'll be a little while yet. If you go for non-Kindle e-books, alternative formats are available here:
    https://www.smashwords.com/profile/view/Thaddeus6th

    [That's only my self-published stuff, but the traditional ones have physical formats available on Amazon anyway].

    Mr. Royale, huzzah!

    Edited extra extra bit: just to elaborate on margins, when Sir Edric's Temple [now contained within The Adventures...] was self-published, the e-book was $2.99 and the paperback about $8.99. I made more per copy on the e-book.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,101
    isam said:

    Looks like a free £11 for those who wont miss £1200 for the next 5 years or so.. or are already heavily involved in the market in which case the funds are already tied up I guess
    1% for 5 years is not exactly exciting
  • Mortimer said:

    It is the 'hardly anyone I knew' comment that worries me.

    I'm only a few (well, maybe a few^3) years older than Ms Apocalypse, and when I was at Uni no-one i knew talked about safe spaces or triggering. We had actual debate, all the time. If you didn't like it, you left the room. You didn't shout down others.
    And I said that that was my exact experience at uni. I wasn't shouted down, and neither was anyone who had a diametric POV to my own. In my last year, most of my friends knew that I disliked Corbyn. And one of my friends who is a Corbynista, never shouted me down (unlike Corbynistas on twitter). Also I don't see why the Rhodes thing was so unreasonable. He's a fairly controversial figure. Certainly as someone who is a person of colour, I don't view him as 'great' by any means.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,311
    isam said:

    If you were entering the mkt for the first time the yes, but not if you already had a book with some big reds
    Laying David Miliband at 20 for next Labour leader is a far better bet and would pay out in 3.5 years at most.

    But I'm not tempted to do that either as i think i can put my money to better use elsewhere.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,329
    malcolmg said:

    1% for 5 years is not exactly exciting
    Well I am not exactly calling it the best bet of all time, as evidenced by the fact that it is still there, hence I haven't taken it!
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,481
    Of course, those who want to take a volatile approach to money can follow Morris Dancer's 2017 F1 tips. Last year saw losses at almost every race. And a 250/1 winner.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,658

    I know what London-based B2B journos with one years experience get because I employ them! It's £22,00 to £25,000. I am guessing first year primary school teachers get about the same. Between then they definitely don't get close to £75,000.

    I am not sure that it is wise to buy *that* quickly. Primary Teacher in London is 26-28k minimum starting salary.

    But ~25k each in London still puts a 200k mortgage and £250k+ property within reach, and there are plenty of those.

    I think we have both made our points anyway.
  • NEW THREAD

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,234
    MattW said:

    I am not sure that it is wise to buy *that* quickly. Primary Teacher in London is 26-28k minimum starting salary.

    But ~25k each in London still puts a 200k mortgage and £250k+ property within reach, and there are plenty of those.

    I think we have both made our points anyway.
    £150,000 is to £75,000 as £60,000 was to £30,000 (Double the income)
    ~
    Just because interest rates are lower, the fundamental value of the property is still there. Unless people only ever consider... the repayment - if thats the case, and it is the only way I can work out the property market then what happens when rates head back up ?
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    TGOHF said:

    Long read by Dom Cummings on how DC and GO blew the referendum (LOOOONG read)

    https://dominiccummings.wordpress.com/2017/01/09/on-the-referendum-21-branching-histories-of-the-2016-referendum-and-the-frogs-before-the-storm-2/

    "Further, it was clear that Cameron/Osborne intended to run a campaign based on hysterical warnings and bogus arguments/figures while ignoring the big questions about how the EU works and its trajectory. No10 tried to turn the whole complex issue into a question about whether the economy would grow a little bit slower over the next few years – a trivial issue relative to the significance of the overall question. They are not a duo who have ever engaged the public on a serious matter in a serious way."

    That was very, very long and very, very worthwhile. Thanks for highlighting it here, I found it fascinating.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,062

    Well it's interesting to know there are quite a few Republicans who don't fit the stereotype. The only contact I've really had with GOPers is online and they generally fit the stereotype to some degree or another. Their views are more closely aligned with Paul Ryan then they are with Colin Powell.
    Even Paul Ryan is a bit too much of a RINO for the present Trump crowd
This discussion has been closed.