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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Labour: The party that’s too weak to win but too strong to die
LAB – too weak to win too strong to die. Excellent Fabian Soc report in Guardianhttps://t.co/kqq033vWHk
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https://twitter.com/piers_corbyn/status/815818811924430849
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/12/10/supreme-court-brexit-appeal-judges-heading-split-7-4-decision/
But there is no sign of the Cons or UKIP winning, in that PB cliche, Bootle.
"My main caveat is that we are in such a period of uncertainty that we really have no idea what the world is [presumably will] be like"
Isn't that always the case? Events, dear boy...
But even that sucks, somewhat. It leaves the die hard Remainers as LibDem fodder.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-leeds-38492953
Have the IPCC / CSP ruled on what they are going to do with the officer that shot the guy helping the Turkish mafia lot break out of court?
http://www.nottinghampost.com/bus-pass-elvis-to-hang-up-his-jumpsuit-as-politics-career-comes-to-an-end/story-30025233-detail/story.html
Dentists call to end 'workplace cake culture'
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-38491414
Labour had the chance to say that of course they would support SNP on social policies they would never side with Tories but their fear and the anti Scot campaign aimed at Little Englanders meant they even voted with Tories for austerity as a sort of Tory lite option.
They slipped between cracks on voters needs. In Scotland their core base has gone, In England it is gone in the south of England save perhaps Bristol West and of course ethnic parts of London.
Had Labour simply admitted internally that SNP were unbeatable in Scotland and said they would take on the evil Tories on job cuts and tax dodges for their mates they might have stood a chance. Now floating on a raft with a very slow puncture and no paddle to get back to shore. Dugdale speeches remains the same. Stuck in reverse. In tandem with Tories on local councils in an attempt to keep SNP out on welfare and health issues whilst Tories fly the Union Jack and call Labour soft on the Union. Finding a labour pollie to criticise Tories in Scotland is hard. No wonder Davidson is doing OK. Does not even mention Conservatives on the party literature anymore. The Ruth Davidson team etc....
Those that imagine themselves to be English not British will not return to the Labour fold, I suspect the Fabians are right in many regards. A mea culpa on all the cock ups from Iraq to supporting Tories is needed as the MP's appear to be in it for themselves not their constituents these days. Those that see themselves as British not English are all they have to aim for now. Mainly Remain, perhaps 70% of the 24%, with the 30% Leave soft to another party in many seats in preferential voting.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-38469141
We have fewer companies attending CES than Taiwan, and provide less government support than Israel. The DIT (prop: Liam Fox) says something or other and Matt Hancock from DCLG might stop by for half a day. An unnamed minister is quoted as saying there is a problem getting approval to travel to Las Vegas.
I take it quasi-federal multi-party politics is the new Fabian society buzz phrase for old school electoral pacts. After getting shafted time and time again by Labour, do minor parties still fall for such rubbish?
I've never been to CES, so my comments should be seen accordingly. However I do know a fair few small tech startups. I'm unsure that helping (i.e. paying) for small tech companies to go to CES is the best funding the government can be giving them.
The other frightening thing is the implication of the unnamed minister's remarks that more support would have been forthcoming but the DIT was scared of headlines about Las Vegas (or possibly headlines about expense claims for Las Vegas).
Remainers will be dead. They will have to be replaced with the far different - and rarer - beast, the Rejoiner. Lead by Tim Farron, the man who would happily wear that blue and yellow-starred gimp-suit....
I can imagine the reaction of some on here if they did send lots of people: "Oh My God! The government's wasting lots of money sending people to Las Vegas. Why don't they just reduce the taxation levels for startups / increase incentives for new companies / do something else we can criticise?
I'm not an expert on CES. But I'm unconvinced that spending lots of money helping UK startups to attend CES is the best way the government can be helping them.
Perhaps others (RCS?) can give another perspective,
The sc judges seem like the last people to go leaking to the press to me.
We are already seeing their very modest pool of talent depleted by the likes of Kahn and Burnham leaving Parliament to find winnable posts at the Mayoral level where they can actually do something. Is the likes of Chukka going to hang around for more than another decade in the vague hope of a serious job in 2030? I have my doubts.
Labour also need to ponder the harsh lessons of Scotland. If they do not offer a credible alternative government someone else will. The "too strong to die" meme only requires this to become wishful thinking. At the moment that alternative is not particularly obvious in England but it is unlikely that situation will remain indefinitely.
On funding there is a straw man. First, it would not take "lots of money" and second, I think the complaint is about wider support and not cheap air tickets. It does not have to be the best support or indeed the only support. We do not have the same protectionism as the United States or Russian governments, for instance. Perhaps we should, or perhaps they should not.
We're not too string to die...
Hope you have a great 2017 and with luck will be back before Easter.
With luck, by the time I return it will have started the path back towards credibility.
LAs spend 000s on attending to promote their own asset base or indeed to look for property to invest in. At the same time they are wined,dined and generally treat it as an extra holiday for the year.
Always remember the irregular verb: I slog my guts out, you have a cushy number and they are, to all intents
& purposes, thieves and fraudsters. Whoever any of us are.
Hope the inspection goes well and look forward to your return.
http://www.euractiv.com/section/elections/news/polish-fm-calls-tusk-icon-of-evil-and-stupidity/?nl_ref=27963009
On topic, I do think Labour badly needs a narrative to push - anti-austerity is too vague and too much shared by other parties (even the Tories these days), and nuance on the EU is not in demand. The most serious recent poll finding is that most people can't think of anything that Labour has campaigned for in the last year. That is, in my opinion, worse than being associated with a controversial cause - one can win people round to something, but not to a vacuum. Labour actually needs to be more outspokenly radical rather than try to reassure people that we're not that radical, honest - people won't buy us as a centrist party at the moment, but there is a market for cut-the-crap politics. In particular, I think that we need to be either clearly Remain/Rejoin or clearly Accept Brexit.
Interesting that republicans did this in defiance of Paul Ryan.
Hard not to think that some corrupt politicians will be able to get off the hook because of this.
Remain/rejoin will just be a rehash of the refendum... We can brexit better than you could be persuasive if it's clear tat May has bungled it.
Of course if she makes a success of it... Then Labour would be screwed under either option.
The Left do not have the existential crisis which hit the Right in 1997. Then some right of centre voters were totally disenfranchised - those who came to be UKIP voters, and all the left of centre parties ganged up on the Conservatives with the intention of killing them outright.
The lack of self-awareness with the Lib Dems never ceases to amaze me. The informal carve-up that never was whereby the Lib Dems were effectively given a free run at formerly and now safe Conservative seats will not be forgotten by us Conservatives.
Hague thought the 2010 Coalition was suicidal for the LDs and told Fionn that on the evening of the pact. So did I for that matter although I thought reducing them to 30 seats would be Nivarnah.
So, it might take three election cycles for the left to sort themselves out. But they will do. The test of the right will be to use that 13 to 15 years to embed reform so the next Blair is less able to wreak havoc than the last one.
Those who are not of a Conservative disposition might choke on their cornflakes but the election of Blair led to the most extremist hard left government this country has ever had to face.
I think Labour need to do some thinking about what sort of relationship we want with the EU after Brexit. It is important to appreciate that any deal on Brexit is not immutable and it would be possible for the government of the day to seek to change it. If the deal the government has done does not include membership of the single market is that something Labour wants? Where does it think the job risks are greatest and where is it going to get traction with the population at large?
The line surely has to be, yes the UK voted for Brexit but they didn't vote for this and it would be better if we did that. But they need some idea of what "that" is. So far, there seems very little thought being given to this.
Apols can't remember who made an excellent post yesterday pointing out that it is at the moment of least expectation of change, of a catalyst for change least envisaged, that change often happens.
Meanwhile locally Cons take the Lab effort for granted at their peril.
The Labour government was incompetent and inept with very little idea of what to do with the power they were given but to describe them as "the most extremist hard left government this country has ever had to face" seems simply bizarre. Were you not around in the 60s or 70s?
"Goldilocks Brexit" is a pointless goal for the Labour party. It's obviously desirable but that's the problem. It's Motherhood and apple pie and it's what everyone wants. I doubt if anyone will argue against it. But it's in no one's gift, and the voters' know that.
Mrs May has an advantage. She was a Remainer and so is hardly likely to be arguing for a hard Brexit anyway.
Labour's problem is that it's irrelevant. It's restricted to jumping up and down at the back and heckling. Somehow it needs to grit its teeth and position itself as a constructive critic, offering useful advice. It goes against all the tenets of politics so it won't.
The LDs have a definite position but they'll struggle to shake off the accusations of being anti-democratic. They don't need to as they're aiming for a niche position, but Labour are still seeking power.
How can Labour be constructive in the EU negotiations?
Agree that Brexit will proceed (without any but ... but ....buts). Put forward Gisella Stuart as the spokesperson for Labour, then they can emphasise workers' rights. Make it a joint enterprise for the UK and offer to show a united front in Europe.
It won't happen and they'll remain in limbo, too involved in self-destruction.
What will they do? Not sure. Head off back to apathy or protest or some such.
If a party can't win an outright majority then it must by definition be reliant on the votes of minor parties. Alex Salmond was more than clear during the election on how he saw his party's role in a hung parliament. Formaling the relationship beforehand just makes that campaigning all the easier (as well as undermining Labour even more in Scotland and the Lib Dem target seats).
In fact, were Labour to accept the 'the SNP are part of our coalition' argument, it's difficult to see how they could ever be relevant in Scotland again, because that UK-wide assertion would play counter to their first objective at Holyrood level: becoming the official opposition again. More likely, with the Tories establishing themselves as the second party, it would push those who value class-based division over nationism/unionism to the SNP as the better bet to 'keep the Tories out (or at least, to keep pressure on them)'.
This May is likely to see another huge blow to Scottish Labour, will which already be reeling from the psychological, financial and organisational blows of losing so many MPs. If they do poll only around 15% in the local elections - where the leaked internal report put them - they'll very probably lose more than half their councillors in a day.
I see Michael Gove has been peddling lying propaganda again. What does he think's in it for him?
It does seem incredible that Corbyn might contest the 2020 election.
However, unlike Labour now, there was no real alternative to the Conservatives on the right-of-centre, other than the most Blairite fringe of Labour and a few Lib Dems near the centre, the then-tiny UKIP and the extremist BNP. The majority of the Tories' ground was unchallenged and enabled them to retreat to a safe zone while it awaited more propitious times. Labour, now, by contrast, has several middle-sized parties competing for virtually every vote it currently has. Its one advantage is, as the Fabians point out, that inertia still works powerfully in its favour. For now.
https://twitter.com/skydata/status/816211920994832384
And should patterns be drawn from them in that here and in the US, it's been the left that's been over-estimated.
I think in both leadership elections Corbyn won by enough he didn't need the union vote?
These days, the biggest role of CES is to get big buyers (like Best Buy, and Curry's) together with no-name Chinese OEMs, so that they can decide on what TV is going to be their own brand model for the next Christmas season.
And Labour's performance in secondary elections suggests the party would struggle to hit 30% in a general election.
http://www.fabians.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/Stuck-Fabian-Society-analysis-paper.pdf
Mr. rkrkrk, just finished the initial pass at a couple of family trees for inclusion with the print edition. I suspect this is the case, but you just meant Penmere/Esden, yes?