politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Not long to go until those end of year political bets are reso
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Not long to go until those end of year political bets are resolved
At the end of the biggest political betting year ever we’ve still got pile of wagers to be resolved and that won’t happen until midnight tomorrow night. These are ones relating to whether things will or will not happen during 2016.
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Hunt to make it to the year to roll in,
& Corbyn to make it to the year end, a final farewell to Victor Chandler.
Article of the year. Giles Coren still has "it".
brooke Junior hit 21 today so we spent the afternoon at a restauarant in Lower Slaughter - it was freezing fog the whole way back with visibility down to 25 yards
glad to get back home, light the fire and open some fizz ! :-)
Edited
Off topic.
Someone just shared this on my Facebook page and, even as an atheist, I can't think of a better message to close the year.
http://deredactie.be/cm/vrtnieuws.english/videozone_ENG/1.2852447
The thread so far seems to agree that Obama is, diplomatically, at the back of the queue.
A woman who appears to find the concept of "The buck stops here" as strange and alien.
(That is not defending Ed Balls' inept sacking of her. But an interview where she constantly talks of herself as the victim seems rather odd)
https://youtu.be/gYJO5fJgNSQ
I wasn't going to, but I will, take a splash more of the water of life and just one more big, fat Cubano.
Why?
5:44PM edited 5:45PM
Alanbrooke said:
Obama really is a useless tit
And can be really dangerous for the US and the world as he go's into a tizzy fit and hits out at his perceived demons, during his last 20 days."
Breathtaking that you should be more worried about 'no drama Obama' than Trump.
My point was that after our moral bankruptcy as a result of Iraq and also Libya, we have become completely irrelevant.
Some of our policies are also frankly puzzling: we hate Assad, a murderous bastard but a secular one but we ally ourselves with a murderous bunch of bastards who are also Islamists, apparently not as bad as Al Qaeda [ that's a relief ! ]
It was Hillary, Cameron and Sarkozy that wanted to play macho, they never had the reputation of being strong so they felt the need to prove it when they went down in the polls.
It is obvious that once the West plays no part in that region that it stabilizes by itself.
With regional powers who don't feel the need to prove that they are macho, because they already are.
But we were not happy. We wanted to make it a nice happy place without having the foggiest idea what we were getting into. Now we have created a gigantic mess where, we have finally lost any semblance of control.
http://nypost.com/2016/12/30/number-of-cops-killed-in-line-of-duty-this-year-spikes-drastically/
"Ambushes in Dallas and Baton Rouge, Louisiana, and other shootings around the country led to a sharp increase in the number of police killed in the line of duty this year.
From Jan. 1 through Wednesday, 135 officers lost their lives. Some died in traffic accidents, but nearly half were shot to death. That’s a 56 percent increase in shooting deaths over the previous year.
Of the 64 who were fatally shot, 21 were killed in ambush attacks often fueled by anger over police use of force involving minorities...
The US and UK care too much about their enemies (always a dangerous sign as this is not reciprocated) to be effective in political, military or economic war.
His answer to email hacking: "Let's get on with our lives." He does even bother to hide his cosy relationship with Putin.
After all, P helped him avoid bankruptcy.
And this is why I'm a bit of a pacifist.
Starting a war is easy, winning it requires killing the enemy on a mass scale and destruction that in today's world is barbaric.
Murder rate only up about 10 per cent this year, so the 50 per cent figure looks like a bit of an outlier (although small number statistics come into play).
That figure looks to be down on 2015:
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/ng-interactive/2015/jun/01/the-counted-police-killings-us-database
234 unarmed killed in 2015, down to 148 in 2016.
Even assuming it is provable, which is doubtful. Trump using information the Russians decided to make publically available because it happened to be to his advantage isn't a crime. You would have to prove some sort of collusion or conspiracy to make that fly, and good luck with that.
How do I price up that you know that is not what he is saying? I wouldn't lay 1.01 "Yes"
Looking at the numbers the murder rate in some american cities is now approaching the death rate of soldiers during the Iraq War.
That says a lot about the state of american society, it's like they suddenly went crazy.
Last time that happened was in the late 1960's where the crime rate in the USA doubled between 1964 and 1970.
It coincided with the huge drug epidemic of that time, same as today.
Drugs and Crime seem to have a very strong correlation.
Just like you would have difficulty proving any link between Comey and Trump. But any rationale person would ask the most obvious question: why would you raise the matter of emails 9 days before the election with no evidence to suggest any wrongdoing and then, miraculously, 2 days before the election announce that nothing was found.
If it was the UK, Trump would surely give him the knighthood.
I am more anti than pro, for sure.
It's not healthy.
Even Bill Clinton got away for lying about having sex in the oval office with Monica, he committed perjury but democrats refused to vote against him in the Senate, and Clinton's popularity went up.
The Iran-Contra scandal also could have resulted in Reagan's impeachment but Republicans wouldn't budge.
Her point was that the leaks simply made public what had actually happened which was that the Democratic establishment was favouring Hillary over Bernie Sanders.
Of course, what she didn't say was that if such leaks made sure that a few tens of thousands Bernie supporters in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin stayed at home or worse voted for Trump [ States which Bernie had won ], it would have been enough for Trump to win.
No doubt , Russia and Comey [ strange bedfellows ] together won it for Trump.
the smell of acrid burning rubber and huge clouds of white smoke from your spinning wheels as you turned in circles to a different attack line was utterly awesome there...........
When presented with facts that proved your original course of argument wrong of course
Putin's behaviours are, in many respects, not a million miles from Stalin's.
"Beginning on Jan. 1, prostitution by minors will be legal in California. Yes, you read that right.
SB 1322 bars law enforcement from arresting sex workers who are under the age of 18 for soliciting or engaging in prostitution, or loitering with the intent to do so. So teenage girls (and boys) in California will soon be free to have sex in exchange for money without fear of arrest or prosecution.
This terribly destructive legislation was written and passed by the progressive Democrats who control California's state government with a two-thirds "supermajority." To their credit, they are sincere in their belief that decriminalizing underage prostitution is good public policy that will help victims of sex trafficking. Unfortunately, the reality is that the legalization of underage prostitution suffers from the fatal defect endemic to progressive-left policymaking: it ignores experience, common sense and most of all human nature — especially its darker side...
http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/california-democrats-legalize-child-prostitution/article/2610540?custom_click=rss
It's PIE in action.
"Of course what she didn't say"
"If such leaks""
"Would have been enough"
Tad short of evidence and any facts there but other than that great post.
Happy to believe it if some fact is presented as I don't trust them either. Building straw men to then knock down though isn't going to prove a point or a case.
This is of course aside from official "histories" (quotation marks because history is of course subjective).
If you haven't yet, please do consider voting on which cover of mine you prefer.
http://thaddeusthesixth.blogspot.co.uk/2016/12/vote-picking-paperback-cover.html
https://twitter.com/MorrisF1/status/814756990316646400
BREAKING NEWS:
Warning is issued of ‘immediate and severe’ risk of terror attacks on tourist targets in India with New Year beach parties feared most at-risk. Israel has warned that tourist targets are under 'immediate risk' in India. The threat referred to the 'south-west of the country', which includes Goa.
'A particular emphasis should be put on events in the coming days in connection with beach and club parties celebrating the New Year where a concentration of tourists will be high,' the warning said. It also recommended avoiding markets, festivals and crowded shopping areas. The warning was also unusual in that it was published on Friday evening, after the start of the Jewish Sabbath, after government offices had closed
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4076772/Israel-warns-severe-immediate-risk-terror-attacks-against-tourist-targets-India.html#ixzz4ULj7X2OX
Southwest also includes Kerala
In the Uk, being a prostitute is not illegal, but pimping is, as is kerbcrawling.
As almost all prostitutes start as underage victims of pimps it seems a sensible change of policy to me.
Valid warning? Who knows? There are always more warnings that actual events of course.
https://twitter.com/paullewismoney/status/814905799051018240
It sounds similar to legalising drugs which has a different set of arguments and reasoning of course?
That's a genuine question by the way.
Being a pimp or customer remains criminal, and the prostitute becomes a social work issue. Care homes for teenage girls are recruiting grounds for pimps though, so there is a degree of circle of despair.
You can be impeached for crimes committed before taking federal/executive office.
cf Spiro Agnew who asked the House to begin impeachment investigations into him for allegations relating to his time as Governor of Maryland.
There's other examples, for example Federal Judges impeached for crimes before they joined the federal bench.
The term high crimes and misdemeanours is purposely vague, of course it relies on the House and Senate not to use it as a political weapon but exclusively for high crimes and misdemeanours.
A powerful weapon against a vulnerable minor.
The freelance comment probably isn't an issue, just as it shouldn't be in this country if the child is under sixteen.
That said, most of the time in bookshops, customers only see the spine anyway.
https://twitter.com/Birdyword/status/814850338742304768
Thatcher was right, Germany is dominating Europe now and we desperately need allies against them.
off the top of my head there have been arrests, actual attacks or stories of heightened precautions due to islamic terror or threat thereof in recent days in the following-
Switzerland, Belgium, USA, UK, Germany, France, China, Canada, Australia, Bangladesh and Italy
Christmas Truces are part of a bygone age when we were all non-EU members
*Germany is not. This is not 1939 or 1914, Germany is a free-market democracy with the rule of law and a dynamic capitalist economy. We should copy them rather than be afraid of them.