politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Pre-Christmas voodoo surveys might have had a big move against

First like Leave.

Third like Boris

All these polls tell us is that there is now a pro-EU sub-set of the electorate that is as motivated and engaged as the anti-EU sub-set used to be. But it's a small minority.

tlg86 said:

williamglenn said:

While these polls aren't reliable gauges of opinion, they do provide a measure of enthusiasm so perhaps the significant thing is that even in an area that was strongly Leave, it's the Remainers who are the ones who still care about the issue and believe Brexit to be the wrong choice.

Hardly a surprise.

But it does show that Labour entering a crowded market to become the Red Brexit party in an attempt to hold on to their constituencies may be the wrong move.

Brexit is happening. Red Brexit is about keeping the workers protection aspects of the EU, even enhancing them, not signing suckers deals with Trump but coming to an amicable agreement with the Single Market.

SouthamObserver said:

All these polls tell us is that there is now a pro-EU sub-set of the electorate that is as motivated and engaged as the anti-EU sub-set used to be. But it's a small minority.

It could be like 1 guy

Iain Martin ✔ @iainmartin1
Mervyn "Brown boom, narrow inflation targeting, ignoring banks" King predicts Brexit success. Now even I find that worrying...

A pro Brexit article and a real news story!

http://order-order.com/2016/12/26/source-told-laura-k-queen-did-back-brexit-at-private-lunch/
"Queen told people at a private lunch that she thinks that we should leave the EU."

HurstLlama said:

Oh, for goodness sake! For years anyone trying to attach any importance to such voodoo polls have been hooted off this site, not least by Mike Smithson. Now, for some reason, they are deemed worthy of serious attention and are even held by some to actually tell us something of worth.

Yes but it is anti-Brexit so it is allowed.

TCPoliticalBetting said:

Oh look another anti-Brexit article. Just like February to June 23rd.

In case any one missed real good news post Brexit. "UK third quarter GDP growth revised up to 0.6%"
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-38413787
"Ruth Gregory, UK economist at Capital Economics, said the figures suggested that June's Brexit vote had had little impact on the economy and that growth in the final quarter of the year would be positive."

0.6% you say.........so I hit nail on head.

TheScreamingEagles said:

HurstLlama said:

Oh, for goodness sake! For years anyone trying to attach any importance to such voodoo polls have been hooted off this site, not least by Mike Smithson. Now, for some reason, they are deemed worthy of serious attention and are even held by some to actually tell us something of worth.

I wish people would read the piece. Mike's saying they are rubbish and we should ignore them and focus on real polling. What do you think Mike meant when he writes

But the problem with these surveys is that they are not and do not seek to be representative of opinion. Anybody can participate online and it does not take a computer genius to find ways of multi-voting.

Why have the header in the first place? Seems to just be griefing for the sake of it.

MaxPB said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

HurstLlama said:

Oh, for goodness sake! For years anyone trying to attach any importance to such voodoo polls have been hooted off this site, not least by Mike Smithson. Now, for some reason, they are deemed worthy of serious attention and are even held by some to actually tell us something of worth.

I wish people would read the piece. Mike's saying they are rubbish and we should ignore them and focus on real polling. What do you think Mike meant when he writes

But the problem with these surveys is that they are not and do not seek to be representative of opinion. Anybody can participate online and it does not take a computer genius to find ways of multi-voting.

Why have the header in the first place? Seems to just be griefing for the sake of it.

Why not run with:-
1. Mervyn King views.
2. GDP revised up.
3. Queen wanted Brexit
etc

Just because OGH and TSE voted for REMAIN?

It is horribly saddening the undignified way so many of the people who lost the referendum are fighting yesterdays battle.

Weasel words, false pretence, just all so fake.. why don't they just campaign for a second referendum? The idea of a referendum on the terms is so ridiculous I cant believe they are suggesting it! Why don't we have a referendum on every trade deal with a foreign country in that case? That's all the EU is now

williamglenn said:

While these polls aren't reliable gauges of opinion, they do provide a measure of enthusiasm so perhaps the significant thing is that even in an area that was strongly Leave, it's the Remainers who are the ones who still care about the issue and believe Brexit to be the wrong choice.

It is an internet voodoo poll; I'm pretty sure most of the respondents had never heard of Wolverhampton, let alone the Express and Star, before being redirected there by a post on a remoaner social media page.

isam said:

It is horribly saddening the undignified way so many of the people who lost the referendum are fighting yesterdays battle.

Weasel words, false pretence, just all so fake.. why don't they just campaign for a second referendum? The idea of a referendum on the terms is so ridiculous I cant believe they are suggesting it! Why don't we have a referendum on every trade deal with a foreign country in that case? That's all the EU is now

You should be thrilled that everyone is taking such an interest in the UK's geopolitical place in the world.

Or do you believe there is anything more important facing the country right now?

Why did the Express and Star use flags that way round?

AlastairMeeks said:

Why did the Express and Star use flags that way round?

Because Remain is the patriotic choice.

DecrepitJohnL said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:

No mention of John Lewis cutting benefits to help fund this.

John Lewis boss: "higher minimum wage should boost productivity
Sir Charlie Mayfield says national living wage may encourage more automation, spurring economic growth"
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/dec/25/john-lewis-minimum-wage-productivity-sir-charlie-mayfield

More automation, fewer jobs. That is the danger. There was a piece from a Nobel Prize-winning economist in the FT about it the other day (automation not globalisation is the big threat). It is paywalled but linked from here.
http://uk.businessinsider.com/nobel-economist-angus-deaton-on-how-robotics-threatens-jobs-2016-12

There seems to be a growing academic consensus around this analysis. The City boys may know more.

You don't need Nobel prize winning economists to tell you this. I wrote about it in my last thread header -
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/11/15/the-robots-are-coming/

**buffs nails**

And now I'm off for a walk. It is a glorious day here in North London. Too glorious to waste loafing around inside, though my brood are seemingly intent on doing just that.

Mr Glenn,

"the significant thing is that even in an area that was strongly Leave, it's the Remainers who are the ones who still care about the issue."

Poor deluded fools. They think that sqweaming and sqweaming until they're sick will make a difference. Aww ... I hope they all have a merry Christmas and a happy new, very new Brexit year.

isam said:

TOPPING said:

isam said:

It is horribly saddening the undignified way so many of the people who lost the referendum are fighting yesterdays battle.

Weasel words, false pretence, just all so fake.. why don't they just campaign for a second referendum? The idea of a referendum on the terms is so ridiculous I cant believe they are suggesting it! Why don't we have a referendum on every trade deal with a foreign country in that case? That's all the EU is now

You should be thrilled that everyone is taking such an interest in the UK's geopolitical place in the world.

Or do you believe there is anything more important facing the country right now?

I am talking about the unedifying way people in the UK who lost the referendum are trying to twist and turn until they find some way of undermining the result.. what are you talking about?

It's unedifying in a democratic society to believe that any vote closes down the argument and compels everyone to subscribe to a 'correct' view. Brexit is a mistake and the people who are cheering for it should be held to account.

williamglenn said:

isam said:

TOPPING said:

isam said:

It is horribly saddening the undignified way so many of the people who lost the referendum are fighting yesterdays battle.

Weasel words, false pretence, just all so fake.. why don't they just campaign for a second referendum? The idea of a referendum on the terms is so ridiculous I cant believe they are suggesting it! Why don't we have a referendum on every trade deal with a foreign country in that case? That's all the EU is now

You should be thrilled that everyone is taking such an interest in the UK's geopolitical place in the world.

Or do you believe there is anything more important facing the country right now?

I am talking about the unedifying way people in the UK who lost the referendum are trying to twist and turn until they find some way of undermining the result.. what are you talking about?

It's unedifying in a democratic society to believe that any vote closes down the argument and compels everyone to subscribe to a 'correct' view. Brexit is a mistake and the people who are cheering for it should be held to account.

In your opinion.

Mr Isam,

Why condemn the toddlers who complain that their toy has been taken away? When they grow up, they'll understand that it was all for the best. Into our lives, some rain must fall but it's the first time they've got drenched. They'll learn and mature from it (hopefully).

isam said:

williamglenn said:

isam said:

TOPPING said:

isam said:

It is horribly saddening the undignified way so many of the people who lost the referendum are fighting yesterdays battle.

Weasel words, false pretence, just all so fake.. why don't they just campaign for a second referendum? The idea of a referendum on the terms is so ridiculous I cant believe they are suggesting it! Why don't we have a referendum on every trade deal with a foreign country in that case? That's all the EU is now

You should be thrilled that everyone is taking such an interest in the UK's geopolitical place in the world.

Or do you believe there is anything more important facing the country right now?

I am talking about the unedifying way people in the UK who lost the referendum are trying to twist and turn until they find some way of undermining the result.. what are you talking about?

It's unedifying in a democratic society to believe that any vote closes down the argument and compels everyone to subscribe to a 'correct' view. Brexit is a mistake and the people who are cheering for it should be held to account.

Surely its worth leaving first to see?

If only we had a plan...

ThreeQuidder said:

isam said:

williamglenn said:

isam said:

TOPPING said:

isam said:

It is horribly saddening the undignified way so many of the people who lost the referendum are fighting yesterdays battle.

Weasel words, false pretence, just all so fake.. why don't they just campaign for a second referendum? The idea of a referendum on the terms is so ridiculous I cant believe they are suggesting it! Why don't we have a referendum on every trade deal with a foreign country in that case? That's all the EU is now

You should be thrilled that everyone is taking such an interest in the UK's geopolitical place in the world.

Or do you believe there is anything more important facing the country right now?

I am talking about the unedifying way people in the UK who lost the referendum are trying to twist and turn until they find some way of undermining the result.. what are you talking about?

It's unedifying in a democratic society to believe that any vote closes down the argument and compels everyone to subscribe to a 'correct' view. Brexit is a mistake and the people who are cheering for it should be held to account.

Surely its worth leaving first to see? That's what the vote was for. If its so shit we can always rejoin when the Lib Dems get back in government

People that wanted to remain saying leaving is a disaster before its happened is hardly reason to rerun the whole thing.

He knows that the federal single European government that he so desires is massively unpopular with the British people as a whole, and knows that there's no chance of a Rejoin vote when that means the euro and Schengen. So he anti-democratically wants to get there by stealth.

Says the poster whose moniker is an homage to the subversion of a democratic election...

williamglenn said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:

3. Queen wanted Brexit

There's no evidence for this. At most the second hand reports of the dinner show that she was playing devil's advocate and question whether leaving was really so hard to do.

"Well, BBC political editor Laura Kuennsberg has revealed a source came to her with the same story before she was scooped by the Sun:
“In a casual chat with one of my contacts, they said: Do you know what? At some point this is going to come out, and I’m telling you now and I don’t know if the BBC would touch it, but the Queen told people at a private lunch that she thinks that we should leave the EU. Apparently at this lunch she said ‘I don’t see why we can’t just get out. What’s the problem?’ My jaw hit the floor. Very sadly, I only had one source. I spent the next few days trying to prove it. I couldn’t find the evidence. Lo and behold, a couple of months later, someone else did. Of course then ensued a huge row between that newspaper and the Palace over what had really been said or not said.”"
http://order-order.com/2016/12/26/source-told-laura-k-queen-did-back-brexit-at-private-lunch/

My Manor.. interesting

http://order-order.com/2016/12/19/tory-battle-hornchurch-upminster/

williamglenn said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:

williamglenn said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:

3. Queen wanted Brexit

There's no evidence for this. At most the second hand reports of the dinner show that she was playing devil's advocate and question whether leaving was really so hard to do.

"Well, BBC political editor Laura Kuennsberg has revealed a source came to her with the same story before she was scooped by the Sun:
“In a casual chat with one of my contacts, they said: Do you know what? At some point this is going to come out, and I’m telling you now and I don’t know if the BBC would touch it, but the Queen told people at a private lunch that she thinks that we should leave the EU. Apparently at this lunch she said ‘I don’t see why we can’t just get out. What’s the problem?’ My jaw hit the floor. Very sadly, I only had one source. I spent the next few days trying to prove it. I couldn’t find the evidence. Lo and behold, a couple of months later, someone else did. Of course then ensued a huge row between that newspaper and the Palace over what had really been said or not said.”"
http://order-order.com/2016/12/26/source-told-laura-k-queen-did-back-brexit-at-private-lunch/

Don't you think the source from the lunch would have offered a stronger quote than that if the Queen had divulged her personal opinion in favour of leaving the EU? It's clearly been spun by the person who spoke to Kuennsberg.
Clegg was also at the lunch and denies that the Queen backed Brexit.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/08/06/michael-gove-leaked-queens-private-eu-remarks-to-the-press-nick/

and you put Clegg's view as correct... Just plain silly to deny this happened. Desperate stuff. The referendum has spoken. We are leaving the EU. Get over it and move on.

isam said:

Theuniondivvie said:

isam said:

Mike asked for "remoaners" not to be used, along with other derogatory names re Leave and Remain.

"Brexiteers" is used disparagingly by those who lost the referendum, and appears in thread headers all the time.. isn't that the same?

No, unless (oddly) you think any reference to Brexit is automatically negative?

I don't care what people call each other, and quite like "Brexiteer" ,but it is definitely used in a negative way by referendum losers

Ah, so instead of actually going with the meaning of words, we're going to presume what folk using them 'really' mean?

Quick, call the semiotics police.

I know how PB loves a bit of Faisaling..

https://twitter.com/RogueCoder250/status/813371171945218049

williamglenn said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:

williamglenn said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:

williamglenn said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:

3. Queen wanted Brexit

There's no evidence for this. At most the second hand reports of the dinner show that she was playing devil's advocate and question whether leaving was really so hard to do.

"Well, BBC political editor Laura Kuennsberg has revealed a source came to her with the same story before she was scooped by the Sun:
“In a casual chat with one of my contacts, they said: Do you know what? At some point this is going to come out, and I’m telling you now and I don’t know if the BBC would touch it, but the Queen told people at a private lunch that she thinks that we should leave the EU. Apparently at this lunch she said ‘I don’t see why we can’t just get out. What’s the problem?’ My jaw hit the floor. Very sadly, I only had one source. I spent the next few days trying to prove it. I couldn’t find the evidence. Lo and behold, a couple of months later, someone else did. Of course then ensued a huge row between that newspaper and the Palace over what had really been said or not said.”"
http://order-order.com/2016/12/26/source-told-laura-k-queen-did-back-brexit-at-private-lunch/

Don't you think the source from the lunch would have offered a stronger quote than that if the Queen had divulged her personal opinion in favour of leaving the EU? It's clearly been spun by the person who spoke to Kuennsberg.
Clegg was also at the lunch and denies that the Queen backed Brexit.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/08/06/michael-gove-leaked-queens-private-eu-remarks-to-the-press-nick/

and you put Clegg's view as correct... Just plain silly to deny this happened. Desperate stuff. The referendum has spoken. We are leaving the EU. Get over it and move on.

Nobody has offered even a second hand quote from the Queen which stands up the story. The palace has denied it and Clegg who was there is on the record as saying it didn't happen.

The referendum has spoken. We are trying to leave the EU. We will not succeed.

Now that is really very silly. You predict that we will not succeed in leaving the EU.

williamglenn said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:

williamglenn said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:

williamglenn said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:

3. Queen wanted Brexit

There's no evidence for this. At most the second hand reports of the dinner show that she was playing devil's advocate and question whether leaving was really so hard to do.

"Well, BBC political editor Laura Kuennsberg has revealed a source came to her with the same story before she was scooped by the Sun:
“In a casual chat with one of my contacts, they said: Do you know what? At some point this is going to come out, and I’m telling you now and I don’t know if the BBC would touch it, but the Queen told people at a private lunch that she thinks that we should leave the EU. Apparently at this lunch she said ‘I don’t see why we can’t just get out. What’s the problem?’ My jaw hit the floor. Very sadly, I only had one source. I spent the next few days trying to prove it. I couldn’t find the evidence. Lo and behold, a couple of months later, someone else did. Of course then ensued a huge row between that newspaper and the Palace over what had really been said or not said.”"
http://order-order.com/2016/12/26/source-told-laura-k-queen-did-back-brexit-at-private-lunch/

Don't you think the source from the lunch would have offered a stronger quote than that if the Queen had divulged her personal opinion in favour of leaving the EU? It's clearly been spun by the person who spoke to Kuennsberg.
Clegg was also at the lunch and denies that the Queen backed Brexit.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/08/06/michael-gove-leaked-queens-private-eu-remarks-to-the-press-nick/

and you put Clegg's view as correct... Just plain silly to deny this happened. Desperate stuff. The referendum has spoken. We are leaving the EU. Get over it and move on.

Nobody has offered even a second hand quote from the Queen which stands up the story. The palace has denied it and Clegg who was there is on the record as saying it didn't happen.

The referendum has spoken. We are trying to leave the EU. We will not succeed.

" We are trying to leave the EU. We will not succeed"

That could be true, and was predicted by the Leave campaign from the start. Big Statists don't give power to the proles easily

Miss Plato, made me think of pioneers.

As a pejorative, Brexiteers is about as rubbish as Supermac.

Anyway, I'm off for a bit.

Mr Isam,

"That could be true, and was predicted by the Leave campaign from the start. Big Statists don't give power to the proles easily."

Worry not. If we don't leave those 'Big Statists' know that their credibility will be in tatters. Like the Liberals, whose word is no longer their bond.

And I'm talking about the referendum, their tuition fees pledge was based on being able to implement it in Government. To betray a referendum result of the British Public on the basis they didn't think they the public were bright enough to understand their vote is a different matter. They'd have thought the public were political geniuses if it had gone the other way.

The Liberals had nothing to lose though; the Establishment do.

isam said:

Theuniondivvie said:

isam said:

Theuniondivvie said:

isam said:

Theuniondivvie said:

isam said:

Mike asked for "remoaners" not to be used, along with other derogatory names re Leave and Remain.

"Brexiteers" is used disparagingly by those who lost the referendum, and appears in thread headers all the time.. isn't that the same?

No, unless (oddly) you think any reference to Brexit is automatically negative?

I don't care what people call each other, and quite like "Brexiteer" ,but it is definitely used in a negative way by referendum losers

Ah, so instead of actually going with the meaning of words, we're going to presume what folk using them 'really' mean?

Quick, call the semiotics police.

Yes I suppose so. A bit like black people being able to use some words to describe themselves while others shouldn't. Are you ok with that?

Perfectly ok.

So whats the difference w Brexiteer? It is obviously used in a derogatory way (a play on Mutineer I suppose), yet Traitor etc are snowflake tears words

Fckn hell.

Because the 'n' word (to which I assume you're referring) has centuries of violence, oppression and, yes, racism attached to it, while brexiteer is shorthand for a vague political inclination. If a motley bunch of victimhood seekers want to get a feather up their arse about it, knock yourselves out.

TheScreamingEagles said:

This is from the official/verified Sony Music twitter account.

I hope it is a hack

It's got to be a hack. The news was also announced by Bob Dylan's account!

https://twitter.com/bobdylan/status/813372352918683649

TCPoliticalBetting said:

Oh look another anti-Brexit article. Just like February to June 23rd.

In case any one missed real good news post Brexit. "UK third quarter GDP growth revised up to 0.6%"
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-38413787
"Ruth Gregory, UK economist at Capital Economics, said the figures suggested that June's Brexit vote had had little impact on the economy and that growth in the final quarter of the year would be positive."

The underlying data was pretty awful in the GDP report: income was down while spending was up.

My big concern has always been that when the inevitable shit hits the fan, and we are forced to bring spending in line with incomes, that this is blamed on Brexit.

SouthamObserver said:

I have genuinely never thought of Brexiteer as anything other than shorthand for someone who supports Brexit. To save writing out someone who supports Brexit each time is there a politically correct term we can use?

Leaver/Remainer

Although personally I'm happy with Brexiteer / Remoaner.

MarkHopkins said:

SouthamObserver said:

I have genuinely never thought of Brexiteer as anything other than shorthand for someone who supports Brexit. To save writing out someone who supports Brexit each time is there a politically correct term we can use?

Leaver/Remainer

Although personally I'm happy with Brexiteer / Remoaner.

Winners / Losers is most accurate in the context of the referendum.

isam said:

Theuniondivvie said:

isam said:

Theuniondivvie said:

isam said:

Theuniondivvie said:

isam said:

Mike asked for "remoaners" not to be used, along with other derogatory names re Leave and Remain.

"Brexiteers" is used disparagingly by those who lost the referendum, and appears in thread headers all the time.. isn't that the same?

No, unless (oddly) you think any reference to Brexit is automatically negative?

I don't care what people call each other, and quite like "Brexiteer" ,but it is definitely used in a negative way by referendum losers

Ah, so instead of actually going with the meaning of words, we're going to presume what folk using them 'really' mean?

Quick, call the semiotics police.

Yes I suppose so. A bit like black people being able to use some words to describe themselves while others shouldn't. Are you ok with that?

Perfectly ok.

So whats the difference w Brexiteer? It is obviously used in a derogatory way (a play on Mutineer I suppose), yet Traitor etc are snowflake tears words

Interesting.

You think "Mutineers" (rebels against legitimate authority) Plato for "privateers"(licensed pirates)

Both pretty negative!

I assumed it was a play on "Musketeers": plucky heroes standing up against the corrupt state in the interests of the people...

@MarkHopkins - Remoaner is harmless, but clearly pejorative. I just can't see even the tamest of insults in Brexiteer. I am clearly missing something, but can't for the life of me see what it is.

Charles said:

isam said:

Theuniondivvie said:

isam said:

Theuniondivvie said:

isam said:

Theuniondivvie said:

isam said:

Mike asked for "remoaners" not to be used, along with other derogatory names re Leave and Remain.

"Brexiteers" is used disparagingly by those who lost the referendum, and appears in thread headers all the time.. isn't that the same?

No, unless (oddly) you think any reference to Brexit is automatically negative?

I don't care what people call each other, and quite like "Brexiteer" ,but it is definitely used in a negative way by referendum losers

Ah, so instead of actually going with the meaning of words, we're going to presume what folk using them 'really' mean?

Quick, call the semiotics police.

Yes I suppose so. A bit like black people being able to use some words to describe themselves while others shouldn't. Are you ok with that?

Perfectly ok.

So whats the difference w Brexiteer? It is obviously used in a derogatory way (a play on Mutineer I suppose), yet Traitor etc are snowflake tears words

Interesting.

You think "Mutineers" (rebels against legitimate authority) Plato for "privateers"(licensed pirates)

Both pretty negative!

I assumed it was a play on "Musketeers": plucky heroes standing up against the corrupt state in the interests of the people...

I think of it as "Buccaneers", but I think the referendum losers use it while thinking "Mutineers"

@isam - not trying anything. Genuinely never saw the insult. Mutineer is not a word you see or hear very often. And mutinies do not have to be negative, of course.

Morris_Dancer said:

Miss Plato, made me think of pioneers.

As a pejorative, Brexiteers is about as rubbish as Supermac.

Anyway, I'm off for a bit.

There is an objective difference of style in the two terms: *Brexiteers* is a newly-coined word which is open to interpretation. *Remoaners* is not a simple play on words but incorporates an existing negative word.

And, IMHO, the negative feeling of *moaner* would be hard for a group to embrace in the way *deplorable* was. (E.g. How many patients like it when they read a report stating "This person arrived complaining of ..."?)

IMHO, it's reasonable to bar the one word from general use and not the other.

And good afternoon, everyone.