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  • JosiasJessop
    JosiasJessop Posts: 46,251
    MarqueeMark said:

    The escape of the Berlin terrorist into thin air does contrast markedly with the Glasgow airport bomber, who got battered by Joe McPublic for his pains.

    Glasgow airport was a relatively secure environment. There were two attackers. One was detained immediately by armed police, and the other, who was on fire, was kicked in the nuts by an airport worker.

    The airport was a secure, hard target. The market was a soft target. Chalk and cheese.

    Incidentally, Wiki seems to indicate that the airport worker might have died last week. A question mark beside it, and I cannot find any other info.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Smeaton_(born_1976)
  • rcs1000
    rcs1000 Posts: 60,717
    Brexit +£6,000
    Trump +£2,000

    Various odds and sods -£250
    Time wasted on hold with Vanilla -£100,000
  • foxinsoxuk
    foxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    edited December 2016
    SeanT said:

    isam said:

    SeanT said:

    isam said:

    SeanT said:

    How long can a decent cove like Carswell stay in an iffy mob like UKIP?

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/oct/20/ukip-does-deal-with-far-right-to-save-european-grouping?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Tweet

    Well he has managed to hang around for the 26 months since that article was written
    lol. Good point. Hadn't noticed. It was tweeted just now and I thought it was new....

    Nonetheless it is quite shocking.

    I want the white working classes of Britain to have a decent, firm, sensible, unafraid-of-PC party to stand up for their rights. Clearly that ain't Labour. But neither is it UKIP.

    Shame.

    In the last 6 years I have spent 18 months at Brighton Uni surrounded by SWP activists, and another 18 meeting loads of UKIP party people at by Election campaigns, Christmas drinks etc and can say w hand on heart that the Kippers were a decent crowd, no one said anything racist or sexist, they were just normal people. The Brighton Uni leftists were spiteful, hypocritical.. wallies! For want of a better word
    I hear you. I think UKIP are let down by the quality of their MEPs, and their online trolls (who do, all-too-easily, slip into easy racism, misogyny, etc)

    Also their organisation is shite.

    On a basic level of supporters and activists I can very easily believe that the leftists are much nastier. I've met a few. Smug, entitled wankers, often actively unpleasant.
    Worst of all is their candidate selection. Who on earth picked Victoria Ayling for a winnable seat, then again in a byelection?

    Kipper voters are a funny bunch, but the party officials are a nest of vipers.
  • Theuniondivvie
    Theuniondivvie Posts: 44,327
    JosiasJessop said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    The escape of the Berlin terrorist into thin air does contrast markedly with the Glasgow airport bomber, who got battered by Joe McPublic for his pains.

    Glasgow airport was a relatively secure environment. There were two attackers. One was detained immediately by armed police, and the other, who was on fire, was kicked in the nuts by an airport worker.

    The airport was a secure, hard target. The market was a soft target. Chalk and cheese.

    Incidentally, Wiki seems to indicate that the airport worker might have died last week. A question mark beside it, and I cannot find any other info.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Smeaton_(born_1976)
    Your campaign to propel engineering into the public eye is relentless!

    Assume Smeato is still going strong, his demise would still be front page news in Glasgow.
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    Well from the looks of things it seems we vary from modest losses to huge profits as a group :)
  • foxinsoxuk
    foxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    rcs1000 said:

    Brexit +£6,000
    Trump +£2,000

    Various odds and sods -£250
    Time wasted on hold with Vanilla -£100,000

    Can we quote you on that...
  • DavidL
    DavidL Posts: 55,867
    edited December 2016
    Hmm... Alastair's comments got me to dig out my economic forecasts for the year put on here on 31.12.15:

    Personally, I suspect that 2015 will be seen as peak immigration with a still strong but less rapidly growing employment market sucking fewer in.
    I think it is unlikely that there will be any increase in mortgage rates this year although fixed deals for multiple years will probably edge up as the year goes on.
    I would expect inflation to continue to skirt with zero unless there is a very big fall in sterling which I think is unlikely.
    I think unemployment will continue to edge down, if not at this year's rate.
    I expect the £ to continue to do well against the Euro which is very likely to have a further debt related crisis at some point this year, possibly in Italy.
    The current real wage growth and trends indicate that people are being far, far too pessimistic about their expectations in standard of living which will rise relatively strongly, certainly compared with the years since 2008.

    I think we will see growth of around 2.5% in the year ahead and that Osborne will just fall short of his deficit reduction targets as some of the "found" £27bn proves to be ephemeral. Overall, a reasonably good year although I fear that the balance of payments will continue to disappoint as consumption rises more rapidly here than in Europe.


    Not too far off. At that time I did not expect brexit to win so did not anticipate the fall in the £ after that. My surprise for the year has been that the EU in general and Italy in particular have plodded on without an obvious crisis.
  • JosiasJessop
    JosiasJessop Posts: 46,251
    Theuniondivvie said:

    JosiasJessop said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    The escape of the Berlin terrorist into thin air does contrast markedly with the Glasgow airport bomber, who got battered by Joe McPublic for his pains.

    Glasgow airport was a relatively secure environment. There were two attackers. One was detained immediately by armed police, and the other, who was on fire, was kicked in the nuts by an airport worker.

    The airport was a secure, hard target. The market was a soft target. Chalk and cheese.

    Incidentally, Wiki seems to indicate that the airport worker might have died last week. A question mark beside it, and I cannot find any other info.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Smeaton_(born_1976)
    Your campaign to propel engineering into the public eye is relentless!

    Assume Smeato is still going strong, his demise would still be front page news in Glasgow.
    Ah, good. :) I did wonder as there was no news about it. Someone titting about with Wiki then.

    John Smeaton, the engineer, was the original Josias Jessop's father's tutor.
  • rcs1000
    rcs1000 Posts: 60,717
    edited December 2016
    @DavidL, indeed the Eurozone PMIs are at a four year high as we exit 2016.
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    Rofl

    Guess who

    Michael Bloomberg in at 85/90 for POTUS 2020 xD
  • tlg86
    tlg86 Posts: 26,950
    Off topic: I wonder if NASA could bid for the next West Coast franchise?

    http://tinyurl.com/zhomewc
  • isam
    isam Posts: 42,205
    As far as political betting is concerned, my major surprise was that Betfair Sportsbook allowed themselves to be arbed against their own exchange after each EU Ref poll!

    I built up quite a nice position by backing, for instance, £300 of Leave at 5 with sportsbook, then laying £200 back at 4.7 or so on the exchange getting a net £100 at 5.6. Did this several times and was about £800@5.5 when Leave was 3.2, only to steam in for a whole lot more at 2.4 the morning Jo Cox died.. from then I was underwater until June 24th. I never had the guts to back again at the big prices as I thought her death had got Remain over the line. Only some inside info I got just before the day of the vote stopped me cutting out for a biggish loss.
  • DavidL
    DavidL Posts: 55,867
    rcs1000 said:

    @DavidL, indeed the Eurozone PMIs are at a four year high as we exit 2016.

    Possibly my inherent euro scepticism got the better of me.
  • rcs1000
    rcs1000 Posts: 60,717
    DavidL said:

    rcs1000 said:

    @DavidL, indeed the Eurozone PMIs are at a four year high as we exit 2016.

    Possibly my inherent euro scepticism got the better of me.
    Almost everyone allows their political views to colour their judgement. It's one of the things you really need to guard against as an investor.
  • paulyork64
    paulyork64 Posts: 2,507
    Sean F - "In a binary contest, where one side is only 2% ahead, yet odds of 3, 4, 5, 6-1 are being offered on the other side, it's not hard to decide which way to bet."

    that's where I went wrong sean. or at least didnt go right. I wanted the outcome to be Fav in my mind before I backed it so I missed out on the Donald and Leave. The opportunity did arise but only after I'd gone to bed each night.
  • Mortimer
    Mortimer Posts: 14,229
    An aside generated by spending 12 hours on long distance train journeys in two days; why don't Pret (or similiar) open branches at every major interchange? Are the on platform rents significantly more expensive than city centre locations?
  • rkrkrk
    rkrkrk Posts: 8,746
    Dadge said:

    @rkrkrk I lost my Brexit winnings on Hillary. I'm a bit down on the year. The problem is I don't really have the discipline and patience to be an effective gambler, plus of course I need to be more dispassionate.

    Glad it's not just me! Yes likewise I basically reinvested all profits and then some in Hilary which worked out badly. My lesson for 2017 is to try to be all green before election day!
  • rcs1000
    rcs1000 Posts: 60,717
    My big lesson from 2016 is that betting markets are incredibly slow to react to new information. After Sunderland it was clear Leave was doing significant better than expected. After Newcastle it should have been favourite, yet you could still get 4s on Betfair.
  • rkrkrk
    rkrkrk Posts: 8,746
    rcs1000 said:

    My big lesson from 2016 is that betting markets are incredibly slow to react to new information. After Sunderland it was clear Leave was doing significant better than expected. After Newcastle it should have been favourite, yet you could still get 4s on Betfair.

    Yes. I suspect many on this site would have made as much if not more money if they had only bet on two days of the year... Referendum night and US election night.
  • Sunil_Prasannan
    Sunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,080
    @Mortimer

    Pret at Birmingham New Street
  • isam
    isam Posts: 42,205
    rcs1000 said:

    My big lesson from 2016 is that betting markets are incredibly slow to react to new information. After Sunderland it was clear Leave was doing significant better than expected. After Newcastle it should have been favourite, yet you could still get 4s on Betfair.

    That was a once in a lifetime money making night, which I didn't capitalise on nearly enough.

    When you back something at 11/8 for the max, then see it drift to 14/1 it's hard to go in again when it looks like it's a cert. Not cutting out was my solace.
  • AnneJGP
    AnneJGP Posts: 3,743
    rcs1000 said:

    My big lesson from 2016 is that betting markets are incredibly slow to react to new information. After Sunderland it was clear Leave was doing significant better than expected. After Newcastle it should have been favourite, yet you could still get 4s on Betfair.

    From what I remember, the MSM weren't exactly on the ball. If most people are relying on them for their information, they're already handicapped.

    And then again, maybe many people just place a bet and wait to see what happens? It's only through reading this site that I know it's possible to reverse out of unfavourable positions as the situation develops.
  • HurstLlama
    HurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    "My big lesson from 2016 is that betting markets are incredibly slow to react to new information"

    Shssssh. Most people who bet on politics do so from the heart not from the head, and another chunk think the odds represent the likely outcome as determined by wise men not by where the money is going. If you go round exposing what mugs most political punters are there will be less money to be made.
  • Sean_F
    Sean_F Posts: 39,132
    It was obvious Leave would win when Sunderland declared.
  • AnneJGP
    AnneJGP Posts: 3,743
    Sean_F said:

    It was obvious Leave would win when Sunderland declared.

    Only thanks to @AndyJS's spreadsheet.
  • Theuniondivvie
    Theuniondivvie Posts: 44,327
    rcs1000 said:

    My big lesson from 2016 is that betting markets are incredibly slow to react to new information. After Sunderland it was clear Leave was doing significant better than expected. After Newcastle it should have been favourite, yet you could still get 4s on Betfair.

    Newcastle declared before Sunderland, didn't it?
  • rcs1000
    rcs1000 Posts: 60,717
    edited December 2016
    Sean_F said:

    It was obvious Leave would win when Sunderland declared.

    Disagree. It was obvious that Leave was doing significantly better than expected. But it was only when we knew how the supposed bastions of Remain (like Newcastle) were performing that the result became near certain.
  • Mortimer
    Mortimer Posts: 14,229
    Is it on the platform Sunil?
  • TOPPING
    TOPPING Posts: 44,060
    SeanT said:

    Mortimer said:

    An aside generated by spending 12 hours on long distance train journeys in two days; why don't Pret (or similiar) open branches at every major interchange? Are the on platform rents significantly more expensive than city centre locations?

    I don't understand why there isn't a Pret in every motorway service station. They're the last redoubts of awful 70s British cooking. Fast food and dreck (tho better coffee now)

    Everywhere else the food is transformed. Odd.
    Plenty of Starbucks and Eds Diners and Pattisserie Valeries at motorway services
  • foxinsoxuk
    foxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    rkrkrk said:

    rcs1000 said:

    My big lesson from 2016 is that betting markets are incredibly slow to react to new information. After Sunderland it was clear Leave was doing significant better than expected. After Newcastle it should have been favourite, yet you could still get 4s on Betfair.

    Yes. I suspect many on this site would have made as much if not more money if they had only bet on two days of the year... Referendum night and US election night.
    Certainly staying up until the early results come in helped. Otherwise I would be just about even.

    I am a moth to an election night flame though, and stay up most of the night for the big'uns.

    Happy to bung a percentage the way of the site if the donate button appears before the January tax bill.
  • rcs1000
    rcs1000 Posts: 60,717
    Theuniondivvie said:

    rcs1000 said:

    My big lesson from 2016 is that betting markets are incredibly slow to react to new information. After Sunderland it was clear Leave was doing significant better than expected. After Newcastle it should have been favourite, yet you could still get 4s on Betfair.

    Newcastle declared before Sunderland, didn't it?
    No
  • DavidL
    DavidL Posts: 55,867
    rcs1000 said:

    Sean_F said:

    It was obvious Leave would win when Sunderland declared.

    Disagree. It was obvious that Leave was doing significantly better than expected. But it was only when we knew how the supposed bastions of Remain (like Newcastle) were performing that the result became near certain.
    I agree with SeanF on this one. We had a very credible model of how the vote was likely to turn out in each area. This model indicated a narrow remain win. It was obvious after Sunderland that if the model was right Leave was going to win because they were so outperforming expectations. The only risk was that this was some odd regional effect but it proved not to be.
  • Alanbrooke
    Alanbrooke Posts: 25,926
    edited December 2016
    @SeanT

    Merkel really has had a bad year. Her immigration policy is coming back to bite her on the arse in election year and her inability to compromise with a spineless Cameron has led to Brexit and the shaking of the EU's foundations. Currently she is presiding over the biggest failing of German Foreign policy since 1941.
  • Theuniondivvie
    Theuniondivvie Posts: 44,327
    rcs1000 said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    rcs1000 said:

    My big lesson from 2016 is that betting markets are incredibly slow to react to new information. After Sunderland it was clear Leave was doing significant better than expected. After Newcastle it should have been favourite, yet you could still get 4s on Betfair.

    Newcastle declared before Sunderland, didn't it?
    No
    The Thunderer really has gone downhill.

    'Newcastle pips Sunderland to post'

    http://tinyurl.com/zx5e4l9
  • tlg86
    tlg86 Posts: 26,950
    I am sure Newcastle declared first.
  • AnneJGP
    AnneJGP Posts: 3,743
    DavidL said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sean_F said:

    It was obvious Leave would win when Sunderland declared.

    Disagree. It was obvious that Leave was doing significantly better than expected. But it was only when we knew how the supposed bastions of Remain (like Newcastle) were performing that the result became near certain.
    I agree with SeanF on this one. We had a very credible model of how the vote was likely to turn out in each area. This model indicated a narrow remain win. It was obvious after Sunderland that if the model was right Leave was going to win because they were so outperforming expectations. The only risk was that this was some odd regional effect but it proved not to be.
    I was immensely impressed with the model, but it's worth bearing in mind that it didn't come with any guarantees. We're looking at it with the benefit of hindsight. Those who placed bets on the strength of the model were gambling on the model being correct - which, happily, it was, of course. :smiley:
  • williamglenn
    williamglenn Posts: 56,291
    Alanbrooke said:

    @SeanT

    Merkel really has had a bad year. Her immigration policy is coming back to bite her on the arse in election year and her inability to compromise with a spineless Cameron has led to Brexit and the shaking of the EU's foundations. Currently she is presiding over the biggest failing of German Foreign policy since 1941.

    Absurd hyperbole.
  • ReggieCide
    ReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    I seem to have been deprived of the opportunity to directly comment on the posts of others. Can anyone cast any light on this - it has already occurred to me that this might not be an accident.
  • nunu
    nunu Posts: 6,024
    All 50 states + DC now certified: Clinton: 65,844,610 (48.2%) Trump: 62,979,636 (46.1%) Others: 7,804,213 (5.7%) https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/133Eb4qQmOxNvtesw2hdVns073R68EZx4SfCnP4IGQf8/edit#gid=19 …
  • Black_Rook
    Black_Rook Posts: 8,905
    Another early Christmas gift for lucky Mrs May:

    https://twitter.com/PollingDigest/status/811298627326976001
  • DavidL
    DavidL Posts: 55,867
    AnneJGP said:

    DavidL said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sean_F said:

    It was obvious Leave would win when Sunderland declared.

    Disagree. It was obvious that Leave was doing significantly better than expected. But it was only when we knew how the supposed bastions of Remain (like Newcastle) were performing that the result became near certain.
    I agree with SeanF on this one. We had a very credible model of how the vote was likely to turn out in each area. This model indicated a narrow remain win. It was obvious after Sunderland that if the model was right Leave was going to win because they were so outperforming expectations. The only risk was that this was some odd regional effect but it proved not to be.
    I was immensely impressed with the model, but it's worth bearing in mind that it didn't come with any guarantees. We're looking at it with the benefit of hindsight. Those who placed bets on the strength of the model were gambling on the model being correct - which, happily, it was, of course. :smiley:
    You're right, there was a risk in the model was not right but it felt right and each result seemed to give it more credibility.
  • Mortimer
    Mortimer Posts: 14,229
    German foreign policy is entirely in retreat, entirely of it's own pointless (from a geo-political POV) posturing.

    Pretty poor, but I'm sure Merkel will be pleased to have the famously euro critical williamglenn's support!!!
  • foxinsoxuk
    foxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    williamglenn said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    @SeanT

    Merkel really has had a bad year. Her immigration policy is coming back to bite her on the arse in election year and her inability to compromise with a spineless Cameron has led to Brexit and the shaking of the EU's foundations. Currently she is presiding over the biggest failing of German Foreign policy since 1941.

    Absurd hyperbole.
    By maneuvering the UK out of the EU, and controlling the ECB, Merkel has an unrivaled position of dominance in the EU. All the other countries are dancing to her tune, or are weak observers.

    Merkel has the advantage of a PR system that makes it hard for insurgent populists, and also a people culturally inclined to respect authority rather than be suspicious of it.

    She has played a blinder.
  • Alanbrooke
    Alanbrooke Posts: 25,926
    @williamglenn

    can you name a bigger german policy failure in the last 75 years ?

    Adenauer led to Germany's reintegration in the world order
    Brandt had Ostpolitik
    Schmidt normalised relations with Europe
    Kohl pushed EU and achieved unification
    Schroder did little but no harm either

    Merkel is currently undermining the core of German foreign policy since the war.

    Epic fail
  • foxinsoxuk
    foxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    ReggieCide said:

    I seem to have been deprived of the opportunity to directly comment on the posts of others. Can anyone cast any light on this - it has already occurred to me that this might not be an accident.

    Its everyone. Click on the timestamp in the post that you want to reply to. It takes you to the vanillaforums site.
  • justin124
    justin124 Posts: 11,527
    8th March is the earliest Spring Budget date I can remember. For many years April was the favoured month for the Budget.
  • foxinsoxuk
    foxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    AnneJGP said:

    DavidL said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sean_F said:

    It was obvious Leave would win when Sunderland declared.

    Disagree. It was obvious that Leave was doing significantly better than expected. But it was only when we knew how the supposed bastions of Remain (like Newcastle) were performing that the result became near certain.
    I agree with SeanF on this one. We had a very credible model of how the vote was likely to turn out in each area. This model indicated a narrow remain win. It was obvious after Sunderland that if the model was right Leave was going to win because they were so outperforming expectations. The only risk was that this was some odd regional effect but it proved not to be.
    I was immensely impressed with the model, but it's worth bearing in mind that it didn't come with any guarantees. We're looking at it with the benefit of hindsight. Those who placed bets on the strength of the model were gambling on the model being correct - which, happily, it was, of course. :smiley:
    It is a gambling site!
  • Alanbrooke
    Alanbrooke Posts: 25,926
    It works !
  • tlg86
    tlg86 Posts: 26,950
    DavidL said:

    AnneJGP said:

    DavidL said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sean_F said:

    It was obvious Leave would win when Sunderland declared.

    Disagree. It was obvious that Leave was doing significantly better than expected. But it was only when we knew how the supposed bastions of Remain (like Newcastle) were performing that the result became near certain.
    I agree with SeanF on this one. We had a very credible model of how the vote was likely to turn out in each area. This model indicated a narrow remain win. It was obvious after Sunderland that if the model was right Leave was going to win because they were so outperforming expectations. The only risk was that this was some odd regional effect but it proved not to be.
    I was immensely impressed with the model, but it's worth bearing in mind that it didn't come with any guarantees. We're looking at it with the benefit of hindsight. Those who placed bets on the strength of the model were gambling on the model being correct - which, happily, it was, of course. :smiley:
    You're right, there was a risk in the model was not right but it felt right and each result seemed to give it more credibility.
    As the results came in I suggested that the model underestimated how polarised the country was. Rod Crosby agreed but said we needed to calibrate the model for the actual result to give a true indication of how good the model was. I'm not sure this has been done.
  • steve_garner
    steve_garner Posts: 1,019
    Excellent post from Foxinsox suggesting that all the other EU countries are dancing to her tune or weak observers. That says it all about the EU and demonstrates one reason we are so much better out of it. Merkel invited millions into the EU without so much as a by your leave.
  • steve_garner
    steve_garner Posts: 1,019
    Merkel is not interested in what the other EU countries think. That included Britain as she showed when she gave Cameron next to nothing.
  • AnneJGP
    AnneJGP Posts: 3,743
    foxinsoxuk said:

    AnneJGP said:

    DavidL said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sean_F said:

    It was obvious Leave would win when Sunderland declared.

    Disagree. It was obvious that Leave was doing significantly better than expected. But it was only when we knew how the supposed bastions of Remain (like Newcastle) were performing that the result became near certain.
    I agree with SeanF on this one. We had a very credible model of how the vote was likely to turn out in each area. This model indicated a narrow remain win. It was obvious after Sunderland that if the model was right Leave was going to win because they were so outperforming expectations. The only risk was that this was some odd regional effect but it proved not to be.
    I was immensely impressed with the model, but it's worth bearing in mind that it didn't come with any guarantees. We're looking at it with the benefit of hindsight. Those who placed bets on the strength of the model were gambling on the model being correct - which, happily, it was, of course. :smiley:
    It is a gambling site!
    Yes, indeed - I meant that it wasn't (at least not early on in the night) risk-free money.
  • ReggieCide
    ReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    foxinsoxuk said:

    ReggieCide said:

    I seem to have been deprived of the opportunity to directly comment on the posts of others. Can anyone cast any light on this - it has already occurred to me that this might not be an accident.

    Its everyone. Click on the timestamp in the post that you want to reply to. It takes you to the vanillaforums site.
    Ta everso
  • tlg86
    tlg86 Posts: 26,950
    Actually, thinking about it, Gibraltar declared first.
  • williamglenn
    williamglenn Posts: 56,291
    Alanbrooke said:

    @williamglenn

    can you name a bigger german policy failure in the last 75 years ?

    Adenauer led to Germany's reintegration in the world order
    Brandt had Ostpolitik
    Schmidt normalised relations with Europe
    Kohl pushed EU and achieved unification
    Schroder did little but no harm either

    Merkel is currently undermining the core of German foreign policy since the war.

    Epic fail

    The tactical response at the height of the refugee crisis was a mistake but apart from that it's very premature to talk about strategic failure when Germany has risen to such a position of pre-eminence under her leadership.

    In particular over Brexit, her position of "not at any price" may yet see a decisive reversal in favour of the EU.

    In retrospect joining the ERM was a moment of hubris for the UK as we thought we could keep pace with Germany economically, setting us up for a future moment of humiliation when we realised that we couldn't. The Brexit vote may see the same dynamic play out on the political plane.
  • foxinsoxuk
    foxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    edited December 2016
    steve_garner said:

    Excellent post from Foxinsox suggesting that all the other EU countries are dancing to her tune or weak observers. That says it all about the EU and demonstrates one reason we are so much better out of it. Merkel invited millions into the EU without so much as a by your leave.

    We marginalised ourselves, while the French and Italians have stagnated economically. The Eastern Europeans and Scandanavian countries saw us as a counterweight to Franco-German EU dominance, a position that we have abandoned.

    Merkel has a position in the EU rather like May in Westminster, suceeding by being the last one standing as all rivals inflictvself harm.

    The 2015 refugee crisis preceeded Merkels offer, and was not caused by it.

    Merkels Germany is an economic and political power, not a threat to our interests at all. She is not Fuhrer or Kaiser.
  • Alistair
    Alistair Posts: 23,670
    tlg86 said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    My most satisfying betting moment, however, was tipping the SNP not to get an overall majority in Holyrood on the morning of the election at 8/1 and being told by all the Scots on the thread that it was money down the drain.

    There may have been longer priced winners, but I think that's one of the best tips this year. Someone can correct me if I'm wrong, but I don't think this was predicated on the polls being massively wrong.
    The polls, a day or two before the election, had shifted a few percentage points from the long term of SNP overperforming 2011 to SNP around 2011 vote level.

    I didn't see a reason for the poll shift to be real rather than MOE so assumed a SNP majority. If I had thought support was at roughly 2011 levels I'd have got on that as it was by many, many fine margins the SNP got their 2011 majority.
  • MarkHopkins
    MarkHopkins Posts: 5,584
    williamglenn said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    @williamglenn

    can you name a bigger german policy failure in the last 75 years ?

    Adenauer led to Germany's reintegration in the world order
    Brandt had Ostpolitik
    Schmidt normalised relations with Europe
    Kohl pushed EU and achieved unification
    Schroder did little but no harm either

    Merkel is currently undermining the core of German foreign policy since the war.

    Epic fail

    The tactical response at the height of the refugee crisis was a mistake but apart from that it's very premature to talk about strategic failure when Germany has risen to such a position of pre-eminence under her leadership.

    In particular over Brexit, her position of "not at any price" may yet see a decisive reversal in favour of the EU.

    In retrospect joining the ERM was a moment of hubris for the UK as we thought we could keep pace with Germany economically, setting us up for a future moment of humiliation when we realised that we couldn't. The Brexit vote may see the same dynamic play out on the political plane.

    In particular over Brexit, her position of "not at any price" may yet see a decisive reversal in favour of the EU.


    How can it possibly be in favour of the the EU? The EU has been irreversibly diminished by us leaving. Why do you think they are so annoyed?

    Whatever happens to us, the EU did not benefit from Merkel trying to playing hard ball with the negotiations.

  • Alistair
    Alistair Posts: 23,670
    Pulpstar said:

    Rofl

    Guess who

    Michael Bloomberg in at 85/90 for POTUS 2020 xD

    I traded the Bloomberg bumps beautifully thanks to PB info. Shame I chucked it all away.
  • williamglenn
    williamglenn Posts: 56,291
    MarkHopkins said:

    How can it possibly be in favour of the the EU? The EU has been irreversibly diminished by us leaving. Why do you think they are so annoyed?

    We haven't left, and if we do it will be the end of the UK.
  • Alistair
    Alistair Posts: 23,670
    nunu said:

    All 50 states + DC now certified: Clinton: 65,844,610 (48.2%) Trump: 62,979,636 (46.1%) Others: 7,804,213 (5.7%) https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/133Eb4qQmOxNvtesw2hdVns073R68EZx4SfCnP4IGQf8/edit#gid=19 …

    Put me out of my misery, what did Stein finish on?
  • Casino_Royale
    Casino_Royale Posts: 63,687
    williamglenn said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    @williamglenn

    can you name a bigger german policy failure in the last 75 years ?

    Adenauer led to Germany's reintegration in the world order
    Brandt had Ostpolitik
    Schmidt normalised relations with Europe
    Kohl pushed EU and achieved unification
    Schroder did little but no harm either

    Merkel is currently undermining the core of German foreign policy since the war.

    Epic fail

    The tactical response at the height of the refugee crisis was a mistake but apart from that it's very premature to talk about strategic failure when Germany has risen to such a position of pre-eminence under her leadership.

    In particular over Brexit, her position of "not at any price" may yet see a decisive reversal in favour of the EU.

    In retrospect joining the ERM was a moment of hubris for the UK as we thought we could keep pace with Germany economically, setting us up for a future moment of humiliation when we realised that we couldn't. The Brexit vote may see the same dynamic play out on the political plane.
    I sincerely hope so.

    The UK has done very well economically since it exited the ERM.
  • isam
    isam Posts: 42,205
    AlastairMeeks said:

    isam said:

    rkrkrk said:

    SeanT said:

    It appears pb, uniquely, has no losers? Or are they all just lurking?

    At the moment I seem to be only loser on here.

    It does sound though like several saved their shirts by reversing bets on election/referendum night.

    In betting terms I guess most people on here won as they can follow in shrewd tipsters on niche events that some bookies don't really keep an eye on, as well as having access to @andyjs spreadsheet.

    In terms of being able to tell the way the political wind is blowing/ being in tune with public mood however, there were many "losers" who called things spectacularly wrong when giving their own opinion.

    Considering Phone polls gospel and Online polls unreliable, and thinking the public cared more about the economy than immigration are two that spring to mind when it came to the EU ref.
    For predictions I had a lousy year. I've got to do my look back over the last twelve months. It's going to be unedifying reading even by my own low standards.
    Although we obv disagree over the EU and immigration, there is no doubt your betting reasoning is sound... and I am sure you don't mean all those catty names you call leavers anyway ;)
  • williamglenn
    williamglenn Posts: 56,291
    edited December 2016
    Casino_Royale said:

    williamglenn said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    @williamglenn

    can you name a bigger german policy failure in the last 75 years ?

    Adenauer led to Germany's reintegration in the world order
    Brandt had Ostpolitik
    Schmidt normalised relations with Europe
    Kohl pushed EU and achieved unification
    Schroder did little but no harm either

    Merkel is currently undermining the core of German foreign policy since the war.

    Epic fail

    The tactical response at the height of the refugee crisis was a mistake but apart from that it's very premature to talk about strategic failure when Germany has risen to such a position of pre-eminence under her leadership.

    In particular over Brexit, her position of "not at any price" may yet see a decisive reversal in favour of the EU.

    In retrospect joining the ERM was a moment of hubris for the UK as we thought we could keep pace with Germany economically, setting us up for a future moment of humiliation when we realised that we couldn't. The Brexit vote may see the same dynamic play out on the political plane.
    I sincerely hope so.

    The UK has done very well economically since it exited the ERM.
    You missed my point. In my analogy leaving the ERM = abandoning Brexit. (And yes, we'll do very well afterwards. :) )
  • steve_garner
    steve_garner Posts: 1,019
    William Glenn, what were you saying earlier about hyperbole? Your response to Mark Hopkins is so ludicrously exaggerated Alistair Meeks could have written it. The end of the UK, grow up.
  • Sean_F
    Sean_F Posts: 39,132
    Sunderland was Basildon 1992.

    WRT Merkel, she's very good at seeing off rivals and staying in office, but she's been a blight for German conservatism. Her instinct is always to buy off her opponents by shifting left. I don't think she'll be judged kindly in hindsight.
  • Alanbrooke
    Alanbrooke Posts: 25,926
    edited December 2016
    @williamglenn

    So in other words you cant name a worse foreign policy platform in the post war period

    German as EU top dog is currently overplaying its hand in doing all to protect its own interests and paying lipservice to everyone elses. It will end in tears.

    As for your comments on the ERM and its offspring the Euro. In the ERM fiasco simply showed that Europhiles dont undertand their own country and are prepared to inflict endless pain on ordinary citizens to satisfy their fetish.

    It was as well we got out as citizens in Greece, Italy and France are currently suffering to enable Germany to keep an undervalued currency. That would be us today.
  • MarkHopkins
    MarkHopkins Posts: 5,584
    williamglenn said:

    MarkHopkins said:

    How can it possibly be in favour of the the EU? The EU has been irreversibly diminished by us leaving. Why do you think they are so annoyed?

    We haven't left, and if we do it will be the end of the UK.

    And dinosaurs will roam the South Downs, whilst ice sheets a mile thick will crush everything north of Reading.

  • Casino_Royale
    Casino_Royale Posts: 63,687
    DavidL said:

    AnneJGP said:

    DavidL said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sean_F said:

    It was obvious Leave would win when Sunderland declared.

    Disagree. It was obvious that Leave was doing significantly better than expected. But it was only when we knew how the supposed bastions of Remain (like Newcastle) were performing that the result became near certain.
    I agree with SeanF on this one. We had a very credible model of how the vote was likely to turn out in each area. This model indicated a narrow remain win. It was obvious after Sunderland that if the model was right Leave was going to win because they were so outperforming expectations. The only risk was that this was some odd regional effect but it proved not to be.
    I was immensely impressed with the model, but it's worth bearing in mind that it didn't come with any guarantees. We're looking at it with the benefit of hindsight. Those who placed bets on the strength of the model were gambling on the model being correct - which, happily, it was, of course. :smiley:
    You're right, there was a risk in the model was not right but it felt right and each result seemed to give it more credibility.
    And it came from AndyJS. Who had, and has, immense credibility.
  • Casino_Royale
    Casino_Royale Posts: 63,687
    Sean_F said:

    Sunderland was Basildon 1992.

    WRT Merkel, she's very good at seeing off rivals and staying in office, but she's been a blight for German conservatism. Her instinct is always to buy off her opponents by shifting left. I don't think she'll be judged kindly in hindsight.

    She has been in office a very long time.
  • williamglenn
    williamglenn Posts: 56,291
    MarkHopkins said:

    williamglenn said:

    MarkHopkins said:

    How can it possibly be in favour of the the EU? The EU has been irreversibly diminished by us leaving. Why do you think they are so annoyed?

    We haven't left, and if we do it will be the end of the UK.
    And dinosaurs will roam the South Downs, whilst ice sheets a mile thick will crush everything north of Reading.
    Me in February about the US election:

    "It's a geographic election. Trump will win over enough Reagan democrats in the flyover states to swing the election. It won't matter if some Republicans aren't willing to hold their nose and vote Trump because they'll all be in the places where Clinton will pile up votes anyway."

    What was your prediction?
  • Alanbrooke
    Alanbrooke Posts: 25,926
    MarkHopkins said:

    williamglenn said:

    MarkHopkins said:

    How can it possibly be in favour of the the EU? The EU has been irreversibly diminished by us leaving. Why do you think they are so annoyed?

    We haven't left, and if we do it will be the end of the UK.

    And dinosaurs will roam the South Downs, whilst ice sheets a mile thick will crush everything north of Reading.

    were doooommeddddd
  • Casino_Royale
    Casino_Royale Posts: 63,687
    williamglenn said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    williamglenn said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    @williamglenn

    can you name a bigger german policy failure in the last 75 years ?

    Adenauer led to Germany's reintegration in the world order
    Brandt had Ostpolitik
    Schmidt normalised relations with Europe
    Kohl pushed EU and achieved unification
    Schroder did little but no harm either

    Merkel is currently undermining the core of German foreign policy since the war.

    Epic fail

    The tactical response at the height of the refugee crisis was a mistake but apart from that it's very premature to talk about strategic failure when Germany has risen to such a position of pre-eminence under her leadership.

    In particular over Brexit, her position of "not at any price" may yet see a decisive reversal in favour of the EU.

    In retrospect joining the ERM was a moment of hubris for the UK as we thought we could keep pace with Germany economically, setting us up for a future moment of humiliation when we realised that we couldn't. The Brexit vote may see the same dynamic play out on the political plane.
    I sincerely hope so.

    The UK has done very well economically since it exited the ERM.
    You missed my point. In my analogy leaving the ERM = abandoning Brexit. (And yes, we'll do very well afterwards. :) )
    I think the UK will do just as well sidestepping a political union as an economic one.

    Cooperation with our European neighbours will continue.
  • foxinsoxuk
    foxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    williamglenn said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    @williamglenn

    can you name a bigger german policy failure in the last 75 years ?

    Adenauer led to Germany's reintegration in the world order
    Brandt had Ostpolitik
    Schmidt normalised relations with Europe
    Kohl pushed EU and achieved unification
    Schroder did little but no harm either

    Merkel is currently undermining the core of German foreign policy since the war.

    Epic fail

    The tactical response at the height of the refugee crisis was a mistake but apart from that it's very premature to talk about strategic failure when Germany has risen to such a position of pre-eminence under her leadership.

    In particular over Brexit, her position of "not at any price" may yet see a decisive reversal in favour of the EU.

    In retrospect joining the ERM was a moment of hubris for the UK as we thought we could keep pace with Germany economically, setting us up for a future moment of humiliation when we realised that we couldn't. The Brexit vote may see the same dynamic play out on the political plane.
    The reason that Cameron got nowhere with his negotiations last year were twofold:

    1) He rushed the referendum anticipating another summer refugee crisis.

    2) While last winter the other EU countries were putting together a (largely successful) package of control measures, Cameron kept trying to talk of his renegotiation. No wonder the other leaders got exasperated.

    Add in a few anti Turkish migrant scares and you have a pretty toxic brew, to finish off a couple of decades of tabloid whining.
  • chestnut
    chestnut Posts: 7,341
    williamglenn said:

    MarkHopkins said:

    How can it possibly be in favour of the the EU? The EU has been irreversibly diminished by us leaving. Why do you think they are so annoyed?

    We haven't left, and if we do it will be the end of the UK.
    Sturgeon's Euro-Sindys equate to less than 30% of the Scottish electorate.
  • williamglenn
    williamglenn Posts: 56,291
    foxinsoxuk said:

    The reason that Cameron got nowhere with his negotiations last year were twofold:

    Yes - talk about catastrophic policy failures... Cameron is in a league of his own.
  • Sean_F
    Sean_F Posts: 39,132
    williamglenn said:

    MarkHopkins said:

    How can it possibly be in favour of the the EU? The EU has been irreversibly diminished by us leaving. Why do you think they are so annoyed?

    We haven't left, and if we do it will be the end of the UK.
    When we leave the EU, the People will sing and rejoice, with trumpets and shawms.
  • Alanbrooke
    Alanbrooke Posts: 25,926
    williamglenn said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    The reason that Cameron got nowhere with his negotiations last year were twofold:

    Yes - talk about catastrophic policy failures... Cameron is in a league of his own.
    Oh dont be silly he shares the top spot with Blair, they bookend the post cold war flops
  • Alanbrooke
    Alanbrooke Posts: 25,926
    Sean_F said:

    williamglenn said:

    MarkHopkins said:

    How can it possibly be in favour of the the EU? The EU has been irreversibly diminished by us leaving. Why do you think they are so annoyed?

    We haven't left, and if we do it will be the end of the UK.
    When we leave the EU, the People will sing and rejoice, with trumpets and shawms.
    and London and Scotland will be consumed by the Lords wrath and anyone who looks round will be turned in to a pillar of salt

    ah happy days
  • Luckyguy1983
    Luckyguy1983 Posts: 32,095
    williamglenn said:

    MarkHopkins said:

    How can it possibly be in favour of the the EU? The EU has been irreversibly diminished by us leaving. Why do you think they are so annoyed?

    We haven't left, and if we do it will be the end of the UK.
    Please desist.
  • foxinsoxuk
    foxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    williamglenn said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    The reason that Cameron got nowhere with his negotiations last year were twofold:

    Yes - talk about catastrophic policy failures... Cameron is in a league of his own.
    His instincts were right, but his timing was awful. He could easily have waited another year. There would have been time to renegotiate, and for Leave to put together the White Paper before rather than after the vote.

    He blew it.
  • rkrkrk
    rkrkrk Posts: 8,746
    Alanbrooke said:

    williamglenn said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    The reason that Cameron got nowhere with his negotiations last year were twofold:

    Yes - talk about catastrophic policy failures... Cameron is in a league of his own.
    Oh dont be silly he shares the top spot with Blair, they bookend the post cold war flops
    Blair won three elections and left when he wanted having achieved much of what he set out to do.

    Whatever you think of Blair's legacy... He can hardly be compared to Cameron who having finally won a majority managed to throw it all away within a year or so.

  • steve_garner
    steve_garner Posts: 1,019
    The reason Cameron's renegotiation got nowhere is quite straightforward, the EU is not interested in reform, it's take it and its direction of travel or leave it.
  • williamglenn
    williamglenn Posts: 56,291
    edited December 2016
    Alanbrooke said:

    williamglenn said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    The reason that Cameron got nowhere with his negotiations last year were twofold:

    Yes - talk about catastrophic policy failures... Cameron is in a league of his own.
    Oh dont be silly he shares the top spot with Blair, they bookend the post cold war flops
    Fair point. At least Cameron got his failure over and done with in office. Blair managed to haunt us with his mistakes for years after he left.
  • Alanbrooke
    Alanbrooke Posts: 25,926
    rkrkrk said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    williamglenn said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    The reason that Cameron got nowhere with his negotiations last year were twofold:

    Yes - talk about catastrophic policy failures... Cameron is in a league of his own.
    Oh dont be silly he shares the top spot with Blair, they bookend the post cold war flops
    Blair won three elections and left when he wanted having achieved much of what he set out to do.

    Whatever you think of Blair's legacy... He can hardly be compared to Cameron who having finally won a majority managed to throw it all away within a year or so.

    the reference was to failures of UK foreign policy

    maybe you count Iraq as a success ?
  • rkrkrk
    rkrkrk Posts: 8,746
    Alanbrooke said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    williamglenn said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    The reason that Cameron got nowhere with his negotiations last year were twofold:

    Yes - talk about catastrophic policy failures... Cameron is in a league of his own.
    Oh dont be silly he shares the top spot with Blair, they bookend the post cold war flops
    Blair won three elections and left when he wanted having achieved much of what he set out to do.

    Whatever you think of Blair's legacy... He can hardly be compared to Cameron who having finally won a majority managed to throw it all away within a year or so.

    the reference was to failures of UK foreign policy

    maybe you count Iraq as a success ?
    No fair enough it was a disaster.
    Overall though Blair can point to real achievements in Northern Ireland; on the economy; on the NHS; on pensioner poverty etc...

    Cameron's policy achievements? Free schools maybe? Gay marriage?
  • foxinsoxuk
    foxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    edited December 2016
    Alanbrooke said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    williamglenn said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    The reason that Cameron got nowhere with his negotiations last year were twofold:

    Yes - talk about catastrophic policy failures... Cameron is in a league of his own.
    Oh dont be silly he shares the top spot with Blair, they bookend the post cold war flops
    Blair won three elections and left when he wanted having achieved much of what he set out to do.

    Whatever you think of Blair's legacy... He can hardly be compared to Cameron who having finally won a majority managed to throw it all away within a year or so.

    the reference was to failures of UK foreign policy

    maybe you count Iraq as a success ?
    With the possible exception of Putin's Russia (and a bit too early to tell if his Mid East adventures are any more successful than ours!), it is hard to think of any world leader whose foreign policy has been a success in recent decades.
  • Casino_Royale
    Casino_Royale Posts: 63,687
    Sean_F said:

    williamglenn said:

    MarkHopkins said:

    How can it possibly be in favour of the the EU? The EU has been irreversibly diminished by us leaving. Why do you think they are so annoyed?

    We haven't left, and if we do it will be the end of the UK.
    When we leave the EU, the People will sing and rejoice, with trumpets and shawms.
    Champagne's on ice.
  • Alanbrooke
    Alanbrooke Posts: 25,926
    rkrkrk said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    williamglenn said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    The reason that Cameron got nowhere with his negotiations last year were twofold:

    Yes - talk about catastrophic policy failures... Cameron is in a league of his own.
    Oh dont be silly he shares the top spot with Blair, they bookend the post cold war flops
    Blair won three elections and left when he wanted having achieved much of what he set out to do.

    Whatever you think of Blair's legacy... He can hardly be compared to Cameron who having finally won a majority managed to throw it all away within a year or so.

    the reference was to failures of UK foreign policy

    maybe you count Iraq as a success ?
    No fair enough it was a disaster.
    Overall though Blair can point to real achievements in Northern Ireland; on the economy; on the NHS; on pensioner poverty etc...

    Cameron's policy achievements? Free schools maybe? Gay marriage?
    which economy was this ?

    the epic fk up of 2008 was a result of Blair's stewardship of the economy in the previous 10 years. His only plus was that he got out of the hot seat before it all went tits up,
  • DavidL
    DavidL Posts: 55,867
    Casino_Royale said:

    DavidL said:

    AnneJGP said:

    DavidL said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sean_F said:

    It was obvious Leave would win when Sunderland declared.

    Disagree. It was obvious that Leave was doing significantly better than expected. But it was only when we knew how the supposed bastions of Remain (like Newcastle) were performing that the result became near certain.
    I agree with SeanF on this one. We had a very credible model of how the vote was likely to turn out in each area. This model indicated a narrow remain win. It was obvious after Sunderland that if the model was right Leave was going to win because they were so outperforming expectations. The only risk was that this was some odd regional effect but it proved not to be.
    I was immensely impressed with the model, but it's worth bearing in mind that it didn't come with any guarantees. We're looking at it with the benefit of hindsight. Those who placed bets on the strength of the model were gambling on the model being correct - which, happily, it was, of course. :smiley:
    You're right, there was a risk in the model was not right but it felt right and each result seemed to give it more credibility.
    And it came from AndyJS. Who had, and has, immense credibility.
    Quite so. A brilliant piece of work.
  • Alanbrooke
    Alanbrooke Posts: 25,926
    foxinsoxuk said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    williamglenn said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    The reason that Cameron got nowhere with his negotiations last year were twofold:

    Yes - talk about catastrophic policy failures... Cameron is in a league of his own.
    Oh dont be silly he shares the top spot with Blair, they bookend the post cold war flops
    Blair won three elections and left when he wanted having achieved much of what he set out to do.

    Whatever you think of Blair's legacy... He can hardly be compared to Cameron who having finally won a majority managed to throw it all away within a year or so.

    the reference was to failures of UK foreign policy

    maybe you count Iraq as a success ?
    With the possible exception of Putin's Russia (and a bit too early to tell if his Mid East adventures are any more successful than ours!), it is hard to think of any world leader whose foreign policy has been a success in recent decades.
    I'd say China hasnt had a bad run.

    No wars, growing world influence, buying up Africa, buying up Western technology and extending its local reach so it's neighbours know who's boss.
  • foxinsoxuk
    foxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    edited December 2016
    Alanbrooke said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    williamglenn said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    The reason that Cameron got nowhere with his negotiations last year were twofold:

    Yes - talk about catastrophic policy failures... Cameron is in a league of his own.
    Oh dont be silly he shares the top spot with Blair, they bookend the post cold war flops
    Blair won three elections and left when he wanted having achieved much of what he set out to do.

    Whatever you think of Blair's legacy... He can hardly be compared to Cameron who having finally won a majority managed to throw it all away within a year or so.

    the reference was to failures of UK foreign policy

    maybe you count Iraq as a success ?
    With the possible exception of Putin's Russia (and a bit too early to tell if his Mid East adventures are any more successful than ours!), it is hard to think of any world leader whose foreign policy has been a success in recent decades.
    I'd say China hasnt had a bad run.

    No wars, growing world influence, buying up Africa, buying up Western technology and extending its local reach so it's neighbours know who's boss.
    Merkel has done much the same, which is where we started.

    :-)
  • rkrkrk
    rkrkrk Posts: 8,746
    Alanbrooke said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    williamglenn said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    The reason that Cameron got nowhere with his negotiations last year were twofold:

    Yes - talk about catastrophic policy failures... Cameron is in a league of his own.
    Oh dont be silly he shares the top spot with Blair, they bookend the post cold war flops
    Blair won three elections and left when he wanted having achieved much of what he set out to do.

    Whatever you think of Blair's legacy... He can hardly be compared to Cameron who having finally won a majority managed to throw it all away within a year or so.

    the reference was to failures of UK foreign policy

    maybe you count Iraq as a success ?
    No fair enough it was a disaster.
    Overall though Blair can point to real achievements in Northern Ireland; on the economy; on the NHS; on pensioner poverty etc...

    Cameron's policy achievements? Free schools maybe? Gay marriage?
    which economy was this ?

    the epic fk up of 2008 was a result of Blair's stewardship of the economy in the previous 10 years. His only plus was that he got out of the hot seat before it all went tits up,
    Wow flashback to 2010/2015 arguments... I think the ten years of economic growth before it was derailed by a global financial crisis is a decent record.
  • Sean_F
    Sean_F Posts: 39,132
    rkrkrk said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    williamglenn said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    The reason that Cameron got nowhere with his negotiations last year were twofold:

    Yes - talk about catastrophic policy failures... Cameron is in a league of his own.
    Oh dont be silly he shares the top spot with Blair, they bookend the post cold war flops
    Blair won three elections and left when he wanted having achieved much of what he set out to do.

    Whatever you think of Blair's legacy... He can hardly be compared to Cameron who having finally won a majority managed to throw it all away within a year or so.

    the reference was to failures of UK foreign policy

    maybe you count Iraq as a success ?
    No fair enough it was a disaster.
    Overall though Blair can point to real achievements in Northern Ireland; on the economy; on the NHS; on pensioner poverty etc...

    Cameron's policy achievements? Free schools maybe? Gay marriage?
    I don't know what good Blair achieved on the economy. He handed over a load of poison pills in Northern Ireland, with his secret amnesties for IRA members, combined with persecution of former members of the armed forces. He was an awful PM.
  • not_on_fire
    not_on_fire Posts: 4,451
    Alanbrooke said:

    @williamglenn

    can you name a bigger german policy failure in the last 75 years ?

    Adenauer led to Germany's reintegration in the world order
    Brandt had Ostpolitik
    Schmidt normalised relations with Europe
    Kohl pushed EU and achieved unification
    Schroder did little but no harm either

    Merkel is currently undermining the core of German foreign policy since the war.

    Epic fail

    Umm, Stalingrad? (1942)
  • JosiasJessop
    JosiasJessop Posts: 46,251
    DavidL said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sean_F said:

    It was obvious Leave would win when Sunderland declared.

    Disagree. It was obvious that Leave was doing significantly better than expected. But it was only when we knew how the supposed bastions of Remain (like Newcastle) were performing that the result became near certain.
    I agree with SeanF on this one. We had a very credible model of how the vote was likely to turn out in each area. This model indicated a narrow remain win. It was obvious after Sunderland that if the model was right Leave was going to win because they were so outperforming expectations. The only risk was that this was some odd regional effect but it proved not to be.
    AndyJS really deserves acclaim from this site. Like Rod, he not only produced a model but gave the reasoning and methodology behind it. That allowed people to develop what might be called a 'trust' factor: how much trust an individual places in it.

    Anyone can make a prediction. Most people could produce a private model: trying to remove their biases and get to the mental or mathematical logic underlying the reality, given the (sometimes poor) data available. Producing a model and making it available, and in some cases arguing for it, is a whole different matter. It's putting their balls on the line.

    Even if the results go against them, Rod and Andy deserve acclaim for their work.
  • williamglenn
    williamglenn Posts: 56,291
    rkrkrk said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    williamglenn said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    The reason that Cameron got nowhere with his negotiations last year were twofold:

    Yes - talk about catastrophic policy failures... Cameron is in a league of his own.
    Oh dont be silly he shares the top spot with Blair, they bookend the post cold war flops
    Blair won three elections and left when he wanted having achieved much of what he set out to do.

    Whatever you think of Blair's legacy... He can hardly be compared to Cameron who having finally won a majority managed to throw it all away within a year or so.

    the reference was to failures of UK foreign policy

    maybe you count Iraq as a success ?
    No fair enough it was a disaster.
    Overall though Blair can point to real achievements in Northern Ireland; on the economy; on the NHS; on pensioner poverty etc...

    Cameron's policy achievements? Free schools maybe? Gay marriage?
    which economy was this ?

    the epic fk up of 2008 was a result of Blair's stewardship of the economy in the previous 10 years. His only plus was that he got out of the hot seat before it all went tits up,
    Wow flashback to 2010/2015 arguments... I think the ten years of economic growth before it was derailed by a global financial crisis is a decent record.
    Brown worshipped at the altar of Alan Greenspan and his bubblicious policies. You can't give absolve him of responsibility for the financial crisis, nor his inaction in the face of an obvious housing bubble that he had promised not to allow.
  • Alanbrooke
    Alanbrooke Posts: 25,926
    foxinsoxuk said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    williamglenn said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    The reason that Cameron got nowhere with his negotiations last year were twofold:

    Yes - talk about catastrophic policy failures... Cameron is in a league of his own.
    Oh dont be silly he shares the top spot with Blair, they bookend the post cold war flops
    Blair won three elections and left when he wanted having achieved much of what he set out to do.

    Whatever you think of Blair's legacy... He can hardly be compared to Cameron who having finally won a majority managed to throw it all away within a year or so.

    the reference was to failures of UK foreign policy

    maybe you count Iraq as a success ?
    With the possible exception of Putin's Russia (and a bit too early to tell if his Mid East adventures are any more successful than ours!), it is hard to think of any world leader whose foreign policy has been a success in recent decades.
    I'd say China hasnt had a bad run.

    No wars, growing world influence, buying up Africa, buying up Western technology and extending its local reach so it's neighbours know who's boss.
    Merkel has done much the same, which is where we started.

    :-)
    Early Merkel yes, but now she's got to top dog status she has to stay on top and the edifice is crumbling beneath her. Personally I dont thnk she can hold it the cracks together. It's time for new leadership.

    It's the standard problem of the EU, they all want to rush it faster than people want to go and eventually the peasants rebel and it's back to the drawing board.

  • JosiasJessop
    JosiasJessop Posts: 46,251
    rkrkrk said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    williamglenn said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    The reason that Cameron got nowhere with his negotiations last year were twofold:

    Yes - talk about catastrophic policy failures... Cameron is in a league of his own.
    Oh dont be silly he shares the top spot with Blair, they bookend the post cold war flops
    Blair won three elections and left when he wanted having achieved much of what he set out to do.

    Whatever you think of Blair's legacy... He can hardly be compared to Cameron who having finally won a majority managed to throw it all away within a year or so.

    the reference was to failures of UK foreign policy

    maybe you count Iraq as a success ?
    No fair enough it was a disaster.
    Overall though Blair can point to real achievements in Northern Ireland; on the economy; on the NHS; on pensioner poverty etc...

    Cameron's policy achievements? Free schools maybe? Gay marriage?
    Surely Northern Ireland was as much Major's doing?

    I can remember a Sunday Times article lambasting Major because we had people talking to the IRA ...
  • rkrkrk
    rkrkrk Posts: 8,746
    Sean_F said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    williamglenn said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    The reason that Cameron got nowhere with his negotiations last year were twofold:

    Yes - talk about catastrophic policy failures... Cameron is in a league of his own.
    Oh dont be silly he shares the top spot with Blair, they bookend the post cold war flops
    Blair won three elections and left when he wanted having achieved much of what he set out to do.

    Whatever you think of Blair's legacy... He can hardly be compared to Cameron who having finally won a majority managed to throw it all away within a year or so.

    the reference was to failures of UK foreign policy

    maybe you count Iraq as a success ?
    No fair enough it was a disaster.
    Overall though Blair can point to real achievements in Northern Ireland; on the economy; on the NHS; on pensioner poverty etc...

    Cameron's policy achievements? Free schools maybe? Gay marriage?
    I don't know what good Blair achieved on the economy. He handed over a load of poison pills in Northern Ireland, with his secret amnesties for IRA members, combined with persecution of former members of the armed forces. He was an awful PM.
    Okay.

    The point I am trying to make is that Blair can be seen as a success according to his own objectives (even if you personally don't like them).

    Cameron failed at this.
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