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  • SandyRentool
    SandyRentool Posts: 23,156
    This is a month old, but I have just seen it. The case for Green Brexit:

    http://www.theecologist.org/magazine/features/2988350/brexit_a_modern_day_peasants_revolt.html


  • tlg86
    tlg86 Posts: 26,950
    david_herdson said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    david_herdson said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    david_herdson said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Jonathan said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    On topic, it is interesting that high profile Labour are effectively quitting parliament to win these Mayoral jobs, but the Tories aren't.

    An indication of Labour of being out of power for a while?

    Or Labour adapting to new politics? Arguably mayors have more power than government ministers.
    I keep on toying on doing a thread about how the next party leaders could be people not in Parliament, but being metro mayors, leaders in the devolved assemblies.

    Just imagine if Steve Rotherham is a real success in Liverpool come 2020 people might see him as a potential Labour leader.

    Or when Mrs May stands down people might look to Ruth Davidson as her successor .
    The parties need to amend their rule books first. I think the Lib Dems and Tories both restrict candidates to sitting MPs. But yes, in a more multi-dimensional political world, positions like FM of Wales or Scotland, or Mayor of London is equivalent to a cabinet post, so why shouldn't someone who's been seen to have done a good job at that level be parachuted in to a national leadership.
    I was thinking just imagine what PB would have been like when the Tories had the magic circle and peers became Tory Leader/PM.
    Jack W would know.

    That said, in effect, the IDS-Howard succession was as near as makes no difference a Magic Circle arrangement, which PB missed by only a year, and something similar could happen again.
    That was more a coup/political assassination.

    Is one of the reasons why I like the Tory party, we have no compunction in removing poorly performing leaders.

    I remember the night IDS was toppled, I think it was Francis Maude on tv saying it was only after IDS had lost the vote of no confidence that the parliamentary party decided on Michael Howard and there was no planning beforehand.

    He said it with a straight face.
    Indeed. And that's why the Tory rules have the removal of the old leader and the election of the new as two distinct processes. What was remarkable in the IDS case was not that he was got rid of - that was the easy bit - it was the collective self-control in which all other potential candidates stood back from the field even though they could have contested it.
    They knew they'd lose the election.
  • FrancisUrquhart
    FrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,722
    edited December 2016
    I remember when the "fear of backlash" part of the cycle took a good few days...BBC already on it in less than 24hrs.
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    SeanT said:

    It appears pb, uniquely, has no losers? Or are they all just lurking?

    It has some even bigger winners who mostly lurk

    @Gettingbetter for instance.
  • MaxPB
    MaxPB Posts: 40,327
    edited December 2016
    SeanT said:

    It appears pb, uniquely, has no losers? Or are they all just lurking?

    It's because we all make the same bets. If anyone puts forwards a reasoned argument people will pile in.
  • Morris_Dancer
    Morris_Dancer Posts: 62,742
    Good afternoon, everyone.

    F1: Pat Symonds has left Williams. Suggestion is Lowe will join, Bottas will leave.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LAf0QnLFS7Q
  • theakes
    theakes Posts: 965
    Why MUST they, it is only 2017, three years before a general.
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    I'm unlikely to be a massive winner any year for the same reason I'm unlikely to be a massive loser.

    Overcautious.
  • TheWhiteRabbit
    TheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,455
    I have ridden out my only big loses. So Iowa my book devalued by £100 overnight (recovered after New Hampshire), and most recently when Fillon smashed Juppe (that has recovered to -£50 or so).
  • SimonStClare
    SimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    edited December 2016
    SeanT said:

    It appears pb, uniquely, has no losers? Or are they all just lurking?

    There’s normally a grand announcement of a new car or whatnot, however the general silence on PB the day after the surprise Brexit and Trump wins was noticeable imho. - Well done to all who made a profit, no matter how modest or mahoosive.
  • SandyRentool
    SandyRentool Posts: 23,156
    May:

    "We've also said we will publish more information about our approach before Article 50 is triggered. I will be making a speech early in the new year setting out more about our approach and about the opportunity I think we have as a country to use this process to forge a truly global Britain that embraces and trades with countries across the world."

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-38383216


    Hopefully she isn't expecting the policy to come out of a Christmas cracker.
  • Luckyguy1983
    Luckyguy1983 Posts: 32,089
    SeanT said:

    It appears pb, uniquely, has no losers? Or are they all just lurking?

    I lost ten pounds on Priti Patel for next Tory leader. :)
  • Morris_Dancer
    Morris_Dancer Posts: 62,742
    Mr. 1983, that was also a loser for me.

    Very bad year for the weekend bets was 2016. Just got lucky with the Spanish Grand Prix.
  • TheWhiteRabbit
    TheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,455
    SSC

    Actually that reminds me, I was +50 coming into the US election night, lost the 50 (but no more) on it.
  • Luckyguy1983
    Luckyguy1983 Posts: 32,089
    SandyRentool said:

    May:

    "We've also said we will publish more information about our approach before Article 50 is triggered. I will be making a speech early in the new year setting out more about our approach and about the opportunity I think we have as a country to use this process to forge a truly global Britain that embraces and trades with countries across the world."

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-38383216


    Hopefully she isn't expecting the policy to come out of a Christmas cracker.

    She needs unique stuff from a totally different angle, to realy catch people by surprise and get them talking. Not 'we'll do a great trade deal with Canada' *Mark Carney gets on the phone to Canada* 'No you won't - kind regards, Canada'. It needs to be totally non-reliant on things that can't be done domestically.
  • Luckyguy1983
    Luckyguy1983 Posts: 32,089
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. 1983, that was also a loser for me.

    Very bad year for the weekend bets was 2016. Just got lucky with the Spanish Grand Prix.

    Thankfully I'm not daft enough to do it too often.
  • SandyRentool
    SandyRentool Posts: 23,156
    "I lost ten pounds on Priti Patel for next Tory leader."

    Even I didn't put money on her!

    However, if she had stood rather than Loathsome, she would have been in with a shout.
  • rottenborough
    rottenborough Posts: 66,860
    Great to read all the updates on overall positions for 2016. Seems we have done quite well as a group.

    I guess it will be many a moon before we see a betting year like it as we have had EU Ref, POTUS and two party leadership elections in one year.
  • foxinsoxuk
    foxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Pulpstar said:

    not_on_fire said:

    "Long range forecast

    RodCrosby said:
    At this juncture, I may as well give you my first long-range 2016 forecast...

    REP 53.4% 353
    DEM 46.6% 185

    MOE, who knows?
    But the GOP are in pole position."

    Not really an impressive forecast, massively overstated the REP electoral and popular vote.

    Well it was a very long range forecast...

    Anyway closer to the time:

    "COMMENTARY: ***FURTHER TIGHTENING 7/11/16***

    Polls continue to tighten, generally in Trump's favour....
    A small systematic error, and Trump is the 45th President. I believe the chance of such error is high.

    INTERESTING FACT: you have to go back to 1904 to find a swing in favour of a two-term (or more) incumbent party, and that was under a sitting president, Teddy Roosevelt. The median swing against is about 5%, the lowest 1.2% in 1944, against FDR. The lowest swing against the incumbent party in an open election was 3.9% in 1928. Clinton is no FDR or Bull Moose, so perhaps the polls are wrong...

    Basically, if there's a 2% shy-Trump factor (i.e. +1% versus Clinton, not at all outlandish), he's one state - any state - away from victory. If the shy-Trump factor is 2.5%, then toss a coin...

    ENDORA still not quite the done-deal for President, methinks... (^_-)"
    Yeas, that as how I remember it, and Plato also was forecasting a narrow Clinton win.

    Best tip was Mike's one a couple of days before (in a header) that it was time to get out of the Clinton EV market. Smart fellow.
  • MTimT
    MTimT Posts: 7,034
    @ Luckyguy "It needs to be totally non-reliant on things that can't be done domestically."

    In other words, it needs to centre on what is within the UK's power to achieve.

    That does not exclude targeting actions or goals which are outside of the UK's ability to deliver singlehandedly. Rather that it suggests focusing on setting the UK up to succeed in those endeavours, setting the right overall environment for success.
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    edited December 2016
    rottenborough said:

    Great to read all the updates on overall positions for 2016. Seems we have done quite well as a group.

    I guess it will be many a moon before we see a betting year like it as we have had EU Ref, POTUS and two party leadership elections in one year.

    2017 could be fun too.

    A Presidential impeachment, an early general election, some leadership elections.

    Although 2020 is more likely to be next biggie, a UK general election, a White House race, either a Tory or Labour leadership contest, or possibly both
  • MTimT
    MTimT Posts: 7,034
    @ SeanT "It appears pb, uniquely, has no losers? Or are they all just lurking?"

    Alas, I gained 10 lb over the year. Too much work and pb, too little exercise, too little discipline re food.
  • Morris_Dancer
    Morris_Dancer Posts: 62,742
    Mr. Borough, indeed. A very turbulent year for politics, and betting thereon. We'll see whether 2017 sees this continue, or normal service resume.
  • Morris_Dancer
    Morris_Dancer Posts: 62,742
    Mr. Eagles, you missed off the very substantial regulatory changes to F1.
  • Sunil_Prasannan
    Sunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,076
    I don't bet _ I'm just here for the entertainment :lol:
  • SandyRentool
    SandyRentool Posts: 23,156
    "I don't bet _ I'm just here for the entertainment"

    Please let us know when you intend to start providing it!
  • williamglenn
    williamglenn Posts: 56,289
    edited December 2016
    Further to my post from back in February calling the manner of Trump's victory correctly (dug up by Pulpstar), this was my map posted 2 days before the election. Almost spot on apart from giving Florida to Clinton.

    http://www.270towin.com/maps/LLLby

    image
  • Morris_Dancer
    Morris_Dancer Posts: 62,742
    Mr. T, plenty of time for the terrorist to have escaped too. It seems an odd mistake.

    I haven't read tons of detail but got the impression the suspect had been dragged from the vehicle.
  • PlatoSaid
    PlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    BBC Archive
    #OTD 1996: Newsnight looked back at some of the most memorable political PR fails of the year https://t.co/7h3JaUIGUZ
  • Sunil_Prasannan
    Sunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,076
    "Well, put it this way, I feel very low in myself. I can't see much in the future, and I feel that any second something terrible is going to happen to me."
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    Another massive nailed on winner soon to be added to the portfolio.

    Jeremy Hunt to be Health Secretary on 1/1/2017

    Tipped here at a massive 1/6 :lol:
  • foxinsoxuk
    foxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    williamglenn said:

    Further to my post from back in February calling the manner of Trump's victory correctly (dug up by Pulpstar), this was my map posted 2 days before the election. Almost spot on apart from giving Florida to Clinton.

    http://www.270towin.com/maps/LLLby

    image

    Good call. Best documented unambiguous final forecast so far.
  • Luckyguy1983
    Luckyguy1983 Posts: 32,089
    MTimT said:

    @ Luckyguy "It needs to be totally non-reliant on things that can't be done domestically."

    In other words, it needs to centre on what is within the UK's power to achieve.

    That does not exclude targeting actions or goals which are outside of the UK's ability to deliver singlehandedly. Rather that it suggests focusing on setting the UK up to succeed in those endeavours, setting the right overall environment for success.

    I think it needs to be a plan for a lean, mean, serious Britain with an eye on lasting economic success. That means drastically reducing the burden of tax and red tape, especially on start-ups/SMEs. It means competitive rates of tax for all businesses. It means a pledge to rebuild our fishing industry. It means radical new ways to support healthy food production post CAP. It means getting serious about on-shoring power production and industry wherever possible, rather than trying to pretend we're carbon-virtuous when we're simply off-shoring fossil fuel use as well as jobs. None of that depends on negotiations with other countries or the EU.
  • Wulfrun_Phil
    Wulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,784
    @foxinsoxuk

    New Hampshire stayed Democrat. So 2 wrong then.
  • FrancisUrquhart
    FrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,722
    German police making the Belgium plod look good !!!
  • JWisemann
    JWisemann Posts: 1,082
    Got a 3300% return on my bets this year. Only one ten quid bet, but still. Thanks PB!
  • Morris_Dancer
    Morris_Dancer Posts: 62,742
    Mr. T, the escapades of the Belgian police spring to mind.

    Or, returning to Germany, proclaiming the shooting spree conducted by a man shouting Allahu Akbar was just a lone wolf, possibly from the far right.
  • Morris_Dancer
    Morris_Dancer Posts: 62,742
    Mr. Wisemann, profitable indeed :D
  • AlsoIndigo
    AlsoIndigo Posts: 1,852
    edited December 2016
    SeanT said:

    German police now adamant they have arrested the wrong man. Perp still at large.

    Clownish incompetence, to add to mortal terror

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-12-20/berlin-police-says-it-arrested-wrong-man-truck-attacker-armed-still-large

    Of course. They are now looking for the local loner called Dave Dieter.
  • Morris_Dancer
    Morris_Dancer Posts: 62,742
    F1: according to Twitterland, Massa has signed a deal to return to Williams to replace Bottas.
  • david_herdson
    david_herdson Posts: 18,357
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    rottenborough said:

    Great to read all the updates on overall positions for 2016. Seems we have done quite well as a group.

    I guess it will be many a moon before we see a betting year like it as we have had EU Ref, POTUS and two party leadership elections in one year.

    2017 could be fun too.

    A Presidential impeachment, an early general election, some leadership elections.

    [snip]
    More definite for 2017: French elections (presidential and parliamentary), a German general election, a Dutch general election. Plenty of scope for more Euro-turmoil there.
  • Morris_Dancer
    Morris_Dancer Posts: 62,742
    Mr. Herdson, jein. If Wilders' party wins he still won't, it seems, have power. AfD may make gains but Germany's Satanic PR will stop them having any role in government.

    Le Pen's in a system that's extremely (ahem) unhelpful to her as the voters will be able to just vote against her in round 2, if she gets that far.
  • glw
    glw Posts: 10,463
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    I remember when the "fear of backlash" part of the cycle took a good few days...BBC already on it in less than 24hrs.

    Such a predictable observation for the media to make, and completely at odds with the facts where over 80% of those arrested for terrorism offences fall into the international terrorism category, almost all of which is Islamist terrorism. And those are just the arrests, as far as I know every major plot foiled in the last few years was Islamist. Even the IRA die-hards are a minor threat by comparison now.

    Maybe the "fake news" is less full of BS.

  • Jobabob
    Jobabob Posts: 3,807
    William Glenn forecast a Trump win – no doubt. Kudos to him, his map was nearly spot on. I remember it clearly because, sick of the nudge-nudge-wink-wink routines, I was asking everyone and anyone to post their maps 48 hours out.

    I backed Trump but failed to predict his winning.

    Plato was asked several times to provide a map and failed to do so. She ended up forecasting a narrow Clinton win.

    RodCrosby is more ambiguous – he seemed to be, like me, backing Trump but predicting Hillary. He caveated it heavily that his model was based on the polls only. But as he doesn't post on here it is hard to call the exact truth.
  • MarkSenior
    MarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    German police making the Belgium plod look good !!!

    Yes could not happen in this country , we only kill innocent Brazilians .
  • BannedInParis
    BannedInParis Posts: 2,191
    "Yes could not happen in this country , we only kill innocent Brazilians ."

    To be fair to the plod, I don't think that was a copper.
  • rkrkrk
    rkrkrk Posts: 8,746
    Well I lost about £800 because of Trump.
    Enjoy your winnings the rest of you!
  • TOPPING
    TOPPING Posts: 44,060
    edited December 2016
    Like many others I had my largest win ever on Jun 23/24 which I had put on to hedge what was in the end a non existent stock portfolio drop.

    I also backed Trump small and the LDs to win Richmond.

    I also backed many many two and three mile hurdlers and chasers who came between a distance last and 4th.
  • Sean_F
    Sean_F Posts: 39,132
    This was the first year, I've bet on politics. I bet on Trump and Brexit, and made a profit of £280.

    My final prediction for the US was Hillary to win 279-259.
  • TheWhiteRabbit
    TheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,455
    @MarkSenior

    To think that that was 11 and a half years ago.
  • foxinsoxuk
    foxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Jobabob said:

    William Glenn forecast a Trump win – no doubt. Kudos to him, his map was nearly spot on. I remember it clearly because, sick of the nudge-nudge-wink-wink routines, I was asking everyone and anyone to post their maps 48 hours out.

    I backed Trump but failed to predict his winning.

    Plato was asked several times to provide a map and failed to do so. She ended up forecasting a narrow Clinton win.

    RodCrosby is more ambiguous – he seemed to be, like me, backing Trump but predicting Hillary. He caveated it heavily that his model was based on the polls only. But as he doesn't post on here it is hard to call the exact truth.

    The eve of poll thread has quite a few predictions here:

    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/11/07/one-day-to-go-and-betfair-makes-hillary-an-83-chance-but-the-markets-could-be-over-reacting/

    I went for Clinton 337, but didn't back Clinton because of the poor odds. I did back Clinton on the States markets in the Sunbelt and Trump in the Rustbelt, and with a bit of supplementary as the results came out, cme away with a modest profit.
  • AnneJGP
    AnneJGP Posts: 3,743
    SandyRentool said:

    This is a month old, but I have just seen it. The case for Green Brexit:

    http://www.theecologist.org/magazine/features/2988350/brexit_a_modern_day_peasants_revolt.html


    Very interesting. Thanks for posting the link.

    Good evening everyone, and Happy Birthday @PlatoSaid
  • Morris_Dancer
    Morris_Dancer Posts: 62,742
    edited December 2016
    F1: doubt Vettel wants to stay at Ferrari beyond 2017 anyway, but this makes it sound like the team wants fresh blood anyway.

    Could be good news for others. I'd suspect Perez/Grosjean would be top of the list.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/38382366

    Edited extra bit: that said, I think Ferrari will go backwards next year.
  • Morris_Dancer
    Morris_Dancer Posts: 62,742
    Good evening, Miss JGP.
  • Verulamius
    Verulamius Posts: 1,555
    SeanT said:

    It appears pb, uniquely, has no losers? Or are they all just lurking?

    David Cameron?
  • not_on_fire
    not_on_fire Posts: 4,451
    I made about £120 on each of Brexit and Trump, mainly thanks to the excellent insight on here. I did lose a little on the Rep nomination but I'm firmly in the black for the year.
  • paulyork64
    paulyork64 Posts: 2,507
    no political bets for me this year. but my account is up 5-fold on inplay tennis. not easy to offer tips as they are very much momentary offerings.

    don't back petra kvitova for anything. her hand has been seriously injured in a knife attack today.
  • rkrkrk
    rkrkrk Posts: 8,746
    SeanT said:

    It appears pb, uniquely, has no losers? Or are they all just lurking?

    At the moment I seem to be only loser on here.

    It does sound though like several saved their shirts by reversing bets on election/referendum night.

  • AlastairMeeks
    AlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    If we're talking about betting, one of life's enduring mysteries is the price on Owen Smith as next Labour leader since his defeat. He was last matched at 25 on Betfair. I'd have thought his price should be more like 100.
  • isam
    isam Posts: 42,205
    rkrkrk said:

    SeanT said:

    It appears pb, uniquely, has no losers? Or are they all just lurking?

    At the moment I seem to be only loser on here.

    It does sound though like several saved their shirts by reversing bets on election/referendum night.

    In betting terms I guess most people on here won as they can follow in shrewd tipsters on niche events that some bookies don't really keep an eye on, as well as having access to @andyjs spreadsheet.

    In terms of being able to tell the way the political wind is blowing/ being in tune with public mood however, there were many "losers" who called things spectacularly wrong when giving their own opinion.

    Considering Phone polls gospel and Online polls unreliable, and thinking the public cared more about the economy than immigration are two that spring to mind when it came to the EU ref.
  • Casino_Royale
    Casino_Royale Posts: 63,687
    Been working like a slave this week so barely had time to even read the threads but, for what it's worth, I made about £750 this year.

    It would have been into four figures but I betted like a tool on the ECV markets, got stuck, didn't trade out fast enough and managed to lock in a £300 loss on the night.
  • Morris_Dancer
    Morris_Dancer Posts: 62,742
    Mr. T, not only that, if the suspect isn't the driver after all, they need to find him. For which a description might be quite useful.
  • rottenborough
    rottenborough Posts: 66,860
    As we have so many winners this year, dare I venture that we should organize a top-up of OGH's server cost fund?
  • MikeSmithson
    MikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    tlg86 said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    My most satisfying betting moment, however, was tipping the SNP not to get an overall majority in Holyrood on the morning of the election at 8/1 and being told by all the Scots on the thread that it was money down the drain.

    There may have been longer priced winners, but I think that's one of the best tips this year. Someone can correct me if I'm wrong, but I don't think this was predicated on the polls being massively wrong.
    I'd agree with that. I got on but at odds much shorter than 8/1.

    My bet of the year in terms of avoiding a huge loss was selling Clinton on the SPIN ECV spread at 314 on the Saturday before the election. I'd bought at 302 so I'd have been down several thousand if I'd let it stand. As it was I won on Hillary Clinton.
  • dr_spyn
    dr_spyn Posts: 11,312
    German police are looking for one suspect, a man called Wulf.
  • TOPPING
    TOPPING Posts: 44,060
    edited December 2016
    isam said:

    rkrkrk said:

    SeanT said:

    It appears pb, uniquely, has no losers? Or are they all just lurking?

    At the moment I seem to be only loser on here.

    It does sound though like several saved their shirts by reversing bets on election/referendum night.

    In betting terms I guess most people on here won as they can follow in shrewd tipsters on niche events that some bookies don't really keep an eye on, as well as having access to @andyjs spreadsheet.

    In terms of being able to tell the way the political wind is blowing/ being in tune with public mood however, there were many "losers" who called things spectacularly wrong when giving their own opinion.

    Considering Phone polls gospel and Online polls unreliable, and thinking the public cared more about the economy than immigration are two that spring to mind when it came to the EU ref.
    It always amazed me that the MSM would quote this or that implied probability of one political outcome or another as though those betting markets had a particular insight whereas there IMO is no better insight into political events than on PB and we were fighting like cats in a sack.
  • Big_G_NorthWales
    Big_G_NorthWales Posts: 66,238
    SeanT said:

    Grisly footage from Berlin now emerging online.

    What I don't quite get is how the police don't have eye-witnesses of the driver. This was a crowded and well-lit Christmas market, many people must have looked into the cabin and seen who was driving.

    Yet the cops release no descriptions? At all?

    According to Sky - Berlin and more generally Germany, have very few cctv cameras.

    Think that will change very quickly.
  • isam
    isam Posts: 42,205
    Away from politics, one candidate for Tipster of the Year has to be the Racing Post's Kevin Pullein, who is a real statto and reliable winning tipster.

    In the Pre Season pull out, he tipped Chelsea (6/1) for the Prem, Newcastle (15/8) for the Championship, Scunthorpe (20/1) for L1, & Plymouth (16/1) for L2

    The acca was 7183/1

    At Christmas they are all top of their table, two are odds on, and the acca is 44/1
  • AlastairMeeks
    AlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    isam said:

    rkrkrk said:

    SeanT said:

    It appears pb, uniquely, has no losers? Or are they all just lurking?

    At the moment I seem to be only loser on here.

    It does sound though like several saved their shirts by reversing bets on election/referendum night.

    In betting terms I guess most people on here won as they can follow in shrewd tipsters on niche events that some bookies don't really keep an eye on, as well as having access to @andyjs spreadsheet.

    In terms of being able to tell the way the political wind is blowing/ being in tune with public mood however, there were many "losers" who called things spectacularly wrong when giving their own opinion.

    Considering Phone polls gospel and Online polls unreliable, and thinking the public cared more about the economy than immigration are two that spring to mind when it came to the EU ref.
    For predictions I had a lousy year. I've got to do my look back over the last twelve months. It's going to be unedifying reading even by my own low standards.
  • MP_SE
    MP_SE Posts: 3,642
    edited December 2016
    I am at work so cannot check my spreadsheets but I had around £13k on Remain which I reversed off when the odds on Leave went out massively after the exit polls. I ended up about £2k down as I placed some bets at bookies which I forgot about.

    Lost about £1.25/1.5k on Clinton.

    Still well up over a decade ish of gambling and my investment portfolio is up massively this year.

    I don't gamble at all now.
  • Morris_Dancer
    Morris_Dancer Posts: 62,742
    Mr. Isam, do feel free to mention his suggestions in the future.

    On suggestions - I probably won't spread bet myself next year but will look to offer some suggestions.
  • Dadge
    Dadge Posts: 2,052
    I'm still p*ssed off that this regional mayor idea has been foisted on us. This is faux democracy. We didn't ask for it, very few people will understand it, and even fewer will vote. The concept of a regional mayor makes no sense in the first place. And then the idea of electing someone to be leader of a region makes no sense either. So I'm boycotting the election and ignoring whoever is elected.
  • Dadge
    Dadge Posts: 2,052
    @rkrkrk I lost my Brexit winnings on Hillary. I'm a bit down on the year. The problem is I don't really have the discipline and patience to be an effective gambler, plus of course I need to be more dispassionate.
  • chestnut
    chestnut Posts: 7,341
    I did okay on Trump, the Italian Referendum and Brexit. The one fly in the ointment was Goldsmith for Mayor. Up overall though.
  • RobD
    RobD Posts: 60,608
    rottenborough said:

    As we have so many winners this year, dare I venture that we should organize a top-up of OGH's server cost fund?

    Maybe if we all chip in enough we can get the quote button back :p
  • JosiasJessop
    JosiasJessop Posts: 46,250
    SeanT said:

    Grisly footage from Berlin now emerging online.

    What I don't quite get is how the police don't have eye-witnesses of the driver. This was a crowded and well-lit Christmas market, many people must have looked into the cabin and seen who was driving.

    Yet the cops release no descriptions? At all?

    I wouldn't be surprised if not many people saw him in the cab after the incident began. First of all you'd have people trying to escape the vehicle's path as it ploughs through the area. The cab is high up, and if the interior lights were not on then there may not be much visibility in the dark, especially if there are lots of lights outside to provide reflections and contrast. Perhaps all most people who were not concentrating on getting out of the way could see was a vague indeterminate shadow, especially if the lorry's headlights were on? Then there is the crowded nature of the area, with the stalls potentially blocking sightlines from the sides.

    P'haps. It'd depend on the lighting angles, the path the lorry took and a thousand and one other factors. But I can believe any descriptions would be vague at best.

    If the bast*rd escaped in the immediate aftermath (say within a few seconds of the lorry stopping) people would still be too busy trying to escape or help victims than look at who was driving, especially with the chaos of lots of people running away from the scene.

    Worse, if someone the sees someone they incorrectly think is the driver, and calls out attention will be diverted.

    Hopefully there'll have been lots of CCTV that'll help them pinpoint him ad will be more reliable than eyewitnesses, although that'll take time to process.
  • MarqueeMark
    MarqueeMark Posts: 55,457
    German police have let their Pakistani suspect free... No suspect currently.

    Extraordinary.
  • JosiasJessop
    JosiasJessop Posts: 46,250
    One thing that should be mentioned: I'd expect there to be lots of the basta*ds DNA in the cab. The police'll have the hoovers out.
  • Essexit
    Essexit Posts: 1,966
    I'm up something like £300 on the year, £160 of that on Trump. Reading this reminds me I need to start betting larger amounts! Didn't bet on EURef at all as I was too emotionally invested in the outcome; in hindsight some betting profits would have been the cherry on top.
  • GarethoftheVale2
    GarethoftheVale2 Posts: 2,350
    Marquee - Wonder what the German is for "Keystone Cops"
  • foxinsoxuk
    foxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    edited December 2016
    As an aside, the German rozzers are pretty good at closing in on terrorists, remember the fog of action. Getting away in the mayhem of a bomb or outrage is not that hard.
    JosiasJessop said:

    SeanT said:

    Grisly footage from Berlin now emerging online.

    What I don't quite get is how the police don't have eye-witnesses of the driver. This was a crowded and well-lit Christmas market, many people must have looked into the cabin and seen who was driving.

    Yet the cops release no descriptions? At all?

    I wouldn't be surprised if not many people saw him in the cab after the incident began. First of all you'd have people trying to escape the vehicle's path as it ploughs through the area. The cab is high up, and if the interior lights were not on then there may not be much visibility in the dark, especially if there are lots of lights outside to provide reflections and contrast. Perhaps all most people who were not concentrating on getting out of the way could see was a vague indeterminate shadow, especially if the lorry's headlights were on? Then there is the crowded nature of the area, with the stalls potentially blocking sightlines from the sides.

    P'haps. It'd depend on the lighting angles, the path the lorry took and a thousand and one other factors. But I can believe any descriptions would be vague at best.

    If the bast*rd escaped in the immediate aftermath (say within a few seconds of the lorry stopping) people would still be too busy trying to escape or help victims than look at who was driving, especially with the chaos of lots of people running away from the scene.

    Worse, if someone the sees someone they incorrectly think is the driver, and calls out attention will be diverted.

    Hopefully there'll have been lots of CCTV that'll help them pinpoint him ad will be more reliable than eyewitnesses, although that'll take time to process.
    This was not a heavily policed event, and in the chaos fairly easy to get away. I don't think the German rozzers are any better or worse than our own.

    It is the nature of these sort of events that they are unpredictable, in crowds, and with maximum confusion. It is the forensics that will trace him.
  • TOPPING
    TOPPING Posts: 44,060
    SeanT said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    SeanT said:

    Grisly footage from Berlin now emerging online.

    What I don't quite get is how the police don't have eye-witnesses of the driver. This was a crowded and well-lit Christmas market, many people must have looked into the cabin and seen who was driving.

    Yet the cops release no descriptions? At all?

    According to Sky - Berlin and more generally Germany, have very few cctv cameras.

    Think that will change very quickly.
    I've dug a bit deeper. There ARE good eye-witnesses of the driver - fleeing the scene. This is why they arrested that Pakistani guy - he matched the description of the villain (implying that the real murderer looks Arab or South Asian)

    But the police have NOT - as far as I can see - released these eye-witness descriptions to the wider public, which seems utterly inept, as they surely want to catch this guy as soon as possible. And they need the public to help.

    It's all quite odd, but then maybe it's just chaos over there.
    Jesus Christ Sean what are you still doing in Primrose Hill?? Get yourself over to Germany and take charge of the operation. They need you, sounds like.
  • isam
    isam Posts: 42,205
    SeanT said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    As an aside, the German rozzers are pretty good at closing in on terrorists, remember the fog of action. Getting away in the mayhem of a bomb or outrage is not that hard.

    JosiasJessop said:

    SeanT said:

    Grisly footage from Berlin now emerging online.

    What I don't quite get is how the police don't have eye-witnesses of the driver. This was a crowded and well-lit Christmas market, many people must have looked into the cabin and seen who was driving.

    Yet the cops release no descriptions? At all?

    I wouldn't be surprised if not many people saw him in the cab after the incident began. First of all you'd have people trying to escape the vehicle's path as it ploughs through the area. The cab is high up, and if the interior lights were not on then there may not be much visibility in the dark, especially if there are lots of lights outside to provide reflections and contrast. Perhaps all most people who were not concentrating on getting out of the way could see was a vague indeterminate shadow, especially if the lorry's headlights were on? Then there is the crowded nature of the area, with the stalls potentially blocking sightlines from the sides.

    P'haps. It'd depend on the lighting angles, the path the lorry took and a thousand and one other factors. But I can believe any descriptions would be vague at best.

    If the bast*rd escaped in the immediate aftermath (say within a few seconds of the lorry stopping) people would still be too busy trying to escape or help victims than look at who was driving, especially with the chaos of lots of people running away from the scene.

    Worse, if someone the sees someone they incorrectly think is the driver, and calls out attention will be diverted.

    Hopefully there'll have been lots of CCTV that'll help them pinpoint him ad will be more reliable than eyewitnesses, although that'll take time to process.
    This was not a heavily policed event, and in the chaos fairly easy to get away. I don't think the German rozzers are any better or worse than our own.

    It is the nature of these sort of events that they are unpredictable, in crowds, and with maximum confusion. It is the forensics that will trace him.
    Hmm. Really? The German cops have already made one howling error in confidently claiming they'd arrested the right man, and letting everyone think it was a Pakistani asylum seeker. Then they had to backtrack, and amp up the fear.

    I don't think Ms Merkel will be sending the Berlin Chief of Police a Christmas card this year.
    I don't reckon she will be getting one from him either!!
  • RobD
    RobD Posts: 60,608
    foxinsoxuk said:



    This was not a heavily policed event, and in the chaos fairly easy to get away. I don't think the German rozzers are any better or worse than our own.

    Yeah, we don't want to be lulled into a false sense of security by the apparent success of our police/intelligence in recent years
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    MikeSmithson said:

    tlg86 said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    My most satisfying betting moment, however, was tipping the SNP not to get an overall majority in Holyrood on the morning of the election at 8/1 and being told by all the Scots on the thread that it was money down the drain.

    There may have been longer priced winners, but I think that's one of the best tips this year. Someone can correct me if I'm wrong, but I don't think this was predicated on the polls being massively wrong.
    I'd agree with that. I got on but at odds much shorter than 8/1.

    My bet of the year in terms of avoiding a huge loss was selling Clinton on the SPIN ECV spread at 314 on the Saturday before the election. I'd bought at 302 so I'd have been down several thousand if I'd let it stand. As it was I won on Hillary Clinton.
    Similiarly I got Trump to -650 on Betfair at around midnight, before reversing him to ~+1000 when Hillary was 1.13 or so.

    @rcs1000 helped me change my mind on that one.
  • chestnut
    chestnut Posts: 7,341
    edited December 2016
    2017 budget set for 8 March 2017. Given that May is saying we will trigger A50 by 31 March 2017 it is probably reasonable to assume some form of co-ordination between these events.
  • RobD
    RobD Posts: 60,608
    chestnut said:

    2017 budget set for 8 March 2017. Given that May is saying we will trigger A50 by 31 March 2017 it is probably reasonable to assume some form of co-ordination between these events.

    Do we have a date for the Queen's speech?
  • foxinsoxuk
    foxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    chestnut said:

    2017 budget set for 8 March 2017. Given that May is saying we will trigger A50 by 31 March 2017 it is probably reasonable to assume some form of co-ordination between these events.

    Isn't it Autumn budgets from now on?
  • isam
    isam Posts: 42,205
    SeanT said:

    How long can a decent cove like Carswell stay in an iffy mob like UKIP?

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/oct/20/ukip-does-deal-with-far-right-to-save-european-grouping?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Tweet

    Well he has managed to hang around for the 26 months since that article was written
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    Is Betfair down for anyone else ?
  • rural_voter
    rural_voter Posts: 2,038
    rkrkrk Posts: 387
    5:32PM

    SeanT said:

    It appears pb, uniquely, has no losers? Or are they all just lurking?

    At the moment I seem to be only loser on here.

    It does sound though like several saved their shirts by reversing bets on election/referendum night.

    I confess to losing £60 on EU and Trump combined. It's convinced me not to 'dabble' at times that I'm too busy to check things thoroughly.

    By contrast, I made sums in the high £100s on GE-2010 and -2015, relying on my own judgment and a few tips from here. I find GEs easier routes to profit, especially individual constituencies.

    My opinion: we need many more UK GEs!!
  • RobD
    RobD Posts: 60,608
    foxinsoxuk said:

    chestnut said:

    2017 budget set for 8 March 2017. Given that May is saying we will trigger A50 by 31 March 2017 it is probably reasonable to assume some form of co-ordination between these events.

    Isn't it Autumn budgets from now on?
    Yeah, and Spring Statements (supposedly containing no major changes.. let's see how long that lasts!)
  • chestnut
    chestnut Posts: 7,341
    foxinsoxuk said:

    chestnut said:

    2017 budget set for 8 March 2017. Given that May is saying we will trigger A50 by 31 March 2017 it is probably reasonable to assume some form of co-ordination between these events.

    Isn't it Autumn budgets from now on?
    I think it's the final one for March.

    In answer to Rob's question, parliament UK website says the next State Opening of Parliament is 'spring 2017'.
  • AnneJGP
    AnneJGP Posts: 3,743
    MarqueeMark said:

    German police have let their Pakistani suspect free... No suspect currently.

    Extraordinary.

    Better that than trying to make the cap fit.
  • RobD
    RobD Posts: 60,608
    chestnut said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    chestnut said:

    2017 budget set for 8 March 2017. Given that May is saying we will trigger A50 by 31 March 2017 it is probably reasonable to assume some form of co-ordination between these events.

    Isn't it Autumn budgets from now on?
    I think it's the final one for March.

    In answer to Rob's question, parliament UK website says the next State Opening of Parliament is 'spring 2017'.
    Thanks, I imagine it would have to be scheduled soon.
  • JosiasJessop
    JosiasJessop Posts: 46,250
    "But the police have NOT - as far as I can see - released these eye-witness descriptions to the wider public, which seems utterly inept, as they surely want to catch this guy as soon as possible. And they need the public to help."

    There are several problems with that. Firstly, eyewitness descriptions are famously inexact. Secondly, even if they have an exact description - say a good police mugshot of the guy they want - they might well get lots of false leads from people either genuinely mistaken, trolling, or even trying to get even with someone they dislike. All these leads will need tracking down.

    If they have just a vague description: "Man around six foot tall, dark haired, with beard, wearing a high-viz bib, possibly dark-skinned," then they will get so many false positives as to make it essentially pointless.

    ISTR the IPCC report into the de Menezes shooting after the 21/7 attempted bombings went into this. Even then it too them a day or so just to release CCTV pictures pf the would-be bombers and a week to capture them.
  • Sean_F
    Sean_F Posts: 39,132
    In a binary contest, where one side is only 2% ahead, yet odds of 3, 4, 5, 6-1 are being offered on the other side, it's not hard to decide which way to bet.
  • isam
    isam Posts: 42,205
    SeanT said:

    isam said:

    SeanT said:

    How long can a decent cove like Carswell stay in an iffy mob like UKIP?

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/oct/20/ukip-does-deal-with-far-right-to-save-european-grouping?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Tweet

    Well he has managed to hang around for the 26 months since that article was written
    lol. Good point. Hadn't noticed. It was tweeted just now and I thought it was new....

    Nonetheless it is quite shocking.

    I want the white working classes of Britain to have a decent, firm, sensible, unafraid-of-PC party to stand up for their rights. Clearly that ain't Labour. But neither is it UKIP.

    Shame.

    In the last 6 years I have spent 18 months at Brighton Uni surrounded by SWP activists, and another 18 meeting loads of UKIP party people at by Election campaigns, Christmas drinks etc and can say w hand on heart that the Kippers were a decent crowd, no one said anything racist or sexist, they were just normal people. The Brighton Uni leftists were spiteful, hypocritical.. wallies! For want of a better word
  • MarqueeMark
    MarqueeMark Posts: 55,457
    The escape of the Berlin terrorist into thin air does contrast markedly with the Glasgow airport bomber, who got battered by Joe McPublic for his pains.
  • Mortimer
    Mortimer Posts: 14,229
    Brexit: +1800 (including a staggering 15/1 punt at 10pm as polls closed, but also thanks to Nigel4England via Robert for the England and Wales voting Leave on SPIN)
    HRC nomination: -52
    Trump nomination: +89
    Trump Pres/State EC bets: +519
    Next Tory leader -189

    Disappointed on the last, not least because I tipped the eventual winner in a thread header before Cameron had lost the referendum

    Most satisfying political betting moments of the year:

    1) Writing my first few thread headers - including one that predicted Remain would lose because it was not about economics
    2) Seeing the 'liberal establishment' finally reap their sown seeds of 40 years of favouring pet fringe projects over helping the common man
    3) Taking Robert's tip about the en primeur Claret in mid June. A good few cases of 2015 Pomerol waiting to be bottled next year purchased at pre-Brexit rates.
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